>> in the meantime, we did have a jobs report this morning. it was a little bit softer than expected, but also not terrible. we did see the pop in markets after powell spoke midday. and we will continue to fasten your seat belts. looking to next week and whatever washington brings forward. that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. a major market reversal. the s&p hitting. >> nearly six. >> month lows. >> before staging. >> a sharp midday turnaround. what sparked the comeback. >> and can markets keep the momentum. >> coming next week. >> and a. >> meta meltdown. >> the stock. getting precipitously close to erasing. all its gains. >> since that historic 20 day winning streak. we make. >> sense of the move and what. >> it says about the state of big tech. plus a big box bust for costco after earnings. >> what came. >> out of the white house's first crypto summit and opportunities overseas? how traders are playing the rallies. in markets outside the u.s. i'm

melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight. tim seymour, bono and eisen. welcome back. steve grasso and mike co. >> we start. >> off with that midday. reversal which capped. >> off a wild. >> week for stocks. >> the s&p dropping more than a percent at its. >> lows of the session before. rebounding to end more than half a percent higher. >> still, it was the index's worst week since september. the initial friday sell off. >> coming as investors digested. >> a weaker. >> than expected jobs report, the. >> u.s. economy expanding payrolls by 151,000in. >> february, less. >> than the 170,000. >> expected. >> the unemployment rate edging higher. while wages rose less than expected. but comments from jerome powell seemed to turn things around midday. the fed chair saying the central. >> bank can wait. >> to see how president trump's aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates. the president weighing in again earlier today, saying reciprocal tariffs on canada and mexico could come as soon as today, and calling the chips act a waste of money. >> what a wild week. economic data. >> trade war escalations. fed commentary was all there. what's

your setup going into next week? tim. >> well, your setup is that markets are still, i think, nervous and possibly not buying the bounce. i think you're in a case where sentiment remains very, very low. you've had extraordinary volatility. i mean this was a week that it's a week to remember. have enjoy yourself this weekend and relax. >> a bit. >> because you've had. 2% intraday vol almost every day. in fact going all the way back to last thursday i think whether it's a recovery up or closing on the lows. and if you look at indices that technically i'm sure steve's got a view, i bet bond has a view. you know, there's a dynamic in terms of where we are relative to the 200 day moving average. so longer term support where we've been dancing really at support or below it. so the nasdaq today finished really kind of back up near the 200 day. but if you think about where it was intraday and it really looked like we were going to close at fresh new lows, you haven't seen the nasdaq as an index move to the downside through the 200 day. really since march of 2023. so it's an it was an extraordinary week. and you

noted powell. he was really the white knight today because on a payroll number that was somewhat mixed i would say at best. but it wasn't a disaster. so therefore it could have been worse. you had scott bessent, the treasury secretary, who was out there talking about a detox for, you know, essentially the economy or the markets or people that are expecting the kind of fiscal full plate that we've gotten over the last ten years. and i think that's fair. i think there are a lot of people that are ready to listen to that and acknowledge it. but the treasury, excuse me, the fed chairman, was really the big deal today. >> yeah, the economy is fine. we can. >> afford to wait. >> we'll see how. policies net out. all good things that markets wanted to hear. >> i think. >> yeah. >> especially given. >> the context. so leading up to that, you had seen. early parts of the day being much. >> more positive. >> and. >> then rolling over into the later our trading session. so i. >> think, you know, that reversal today was. >> was. >> relatively positive. >> to tim's point, though, i still think testing. >> that 200. >> day moving average across the major. >> indices is a bit concerning. and you want to see a floor kind

of put in. >> before jumping in with. >> both feet. to the besson comments. >> i think. >> there's. >> a lot of logic there. >> essentially. >> we have had this fiscal stimulus. >> you're starting to see some of that now. in germany. >> that has fueled this market. >> that. >> along with interest rates for the better. >> part. >> of. >> you know. >> a decade. >> a decade and a half. >> and so kind of moving. from fiscal stimulus to. corporate spending with. >> the tariff. >> overhang. which makes. >> capital budgeting. >> a. >> bit more difficult. in that context. >> i think, is why you're starting to see things roll over. the last thing is. >> that we simply were just. >> kind of priced to perfection in terms of multiples. >> 22. 23 times. and now, you know, you're starting. to see. >> what we thought was going to be. >> strength within some of the smaller caps. that really hasn't held. >> up. >> because those. >> are supposed to be somewhat insulated from tariffs. i think. >> that uncertainty still continues. >> to loom. >> as as a macro overhang. >> you know. >> when tim. >> talked about. >> the s&p. >> and technical levels. >> when you go back. >> he mentioned march. >> of 2023. if you go back to

october. >> of 2023. >> that's where we. >> fell off a cliff. >> and we were down. >> below the 200. >> day moving. >> average for about six days. then we rallied pretty much to where we're at to all time highs. it had the same setup and what created the rally. >> powell. >> powell creates this rally. now i don't know if it's going to be that. >> type of. >> a rally that we saw from october of 2023. >> there's a. lot of. >> things that have changed. but you do i don't want to say you have a. powell put, but maybe you. >> do. have a. >> softer stance there. up to three cuts this this year. maybe we do get four. but the facts they're cutting. they're not raising. right. so you have a softer stance by. >> the fed. have tariffs that ty letters in tariffs are the ifs. we don't know if, if and when they are going. >> to happen. do that again. that was nice i think. >> are you ready for it now. >> yes. >> the key letter is in tariffs. are the ifs nice. are. that wasn't even more than that. it was a big setup but so you do you do have the ability for him. to back off. >> and put his. >> foot on the gas. and if you

get some reciprocity. not just reciprocal, if you get some reciprocity. from canada or mexico, he's got. >> a reason. >> to back off, but he's got to feel like he wins because you still have that us-mexico-canada agreement coming up. so do we have a more positive flow going forward? yes, i think we have a positive flow. is all the money going to go back into the tech to the mega-cap tech stocks? probably not to bronwyn's point, is it going to go into. >> the russell? >> i don't think the russell can can outperform. i think you're going to get. some sort of rotation but not necessarily into the russell. i think you'll get a wider tech spread than the mega-cap names. >> i like that ifs. >> and tariffs. because what you all said, what you said to me basically equates to more volatility across asset classes, which is what we've seen. it's not just in the in in equities mike i mean the volatility that we've seen in the fx market in terms of the dollar index and the dollar's fall in terms of the swings in the treasury

market, in terms of the swings in german bund yields on the back of its stimulus announcement. i mean, it's just extraordinary moves in a single week. >> yeah. i mean, you. >> can sort. >> of get. >> a. >> sense for. >> the volatility. that you're going. >> to see across risk. >> assets. >> even just by looking at a simple barometer like the vix index, for example. because what's going on of course, is that in a risk off atmosphere generally you're going to see correlations in risk assets tend if not to one they're going to rise. and looking at the vix index and putting it into context with a couple other factors, we get some interesting things coming out of it. so going back to when the beginning of the vix took place, which was january of 1990, the average 30 day return for the s&p is about 80 basis points or so. it's interesting that if you take a look at the environment where we are right now, eighth, ninth decile for the vix during that time, slightly above average forward earnings multiples. and the fact that the vix is still basically in an uptrend. if you look at the 30 day moving average for the vix it's much

lower than this. and what happens is that 30 day forward looking returns for the s&p drops from about 80 basis points to the upside to about 20 basis points to the downside. so and that's not a usual circumstance. it's hard to compile a bunch of factors like that and get a big data set where the forward look for the s&p isn't positive. but until we start to see the vix meaningfully decline and i think, you know, the late day move we saw today was a positive. but until we see that i think there's still some significant risks ahead. >> what do you think happens next week i mean it seems like you have all this uncertainty. you have all this volatility sort of baked into equities, whatever asset, you name it. and then there's the fundamental backdrop for a lot of the major drivers that drove the markets last year. it's they it's weakened tremendously. >> it has weakened. but we've blown off a lot of steam i mean i really and if you look at the move in in meta, which we now know has taken out the 20 straight days higher in a short amount of time. and if you look at google and some of the moves

in stocks people have wanted to own at lower prices, i do think there are people and i believe investors should be really going through their list and their watch list and trying to figure out which names. there's no question policy will continue to drive uncertainty. there's no question that the administration is now not afraid to say, we've heard it from the president. we've heard it from the treasury secretary. be prepared for a little pain. that's something that i think actually, markets also, though, will get comfortable with. and i think that's something that we have not heard or maybe even expected to hear from a president that we thought at times was really so focused. i think what happened in europe is, is real. in other words, i think fiscal germany, higher bond yields, lower dollar. these are big deals. i think oil will stay lower. i think the at least the headlines today around russia are that there's maybe a chance for russian oil to no longer have a cap on it, for russian oil to be flowing. we know that there's a dynamic with the saudis right now. it does seem like this administration is going to get there, lower oil prices, which will on some level be also stimulative to the consumer. a lot of crosscurrents next week is, i think, a chance for

markets to actually catch their breath. but i don't think that there's necessarily people ready to come in and buy. >> yeah. a key inflation report though is on deck for next week. so february cpi due out on wednesday. economists expecting a 2.9% rise in prices year on year, according to factset. that would mark a slight deceleration from january. for more on the macro environment, apollo's chief economist torsten slok joins us here on set. torsten, welcome to you. great to have you here on set. what do you make of the jobs report and how does that set up the cpi report for next week? >> well. >> i do think that. >> the soft. >> data going. >> into today's number. >> has been deteriorating, both. >> when. >> it comes. >> to. >> consumer confidence. we had. >> on wednesday. >> last week and also. >> when it. >> comes to corporate confidence. >> we're seeing the capex plans from. >> the regional fed districts. >> are. >> beginning to. >> roll over. >> so the. worry you can have is that the soft data is saying that both. >> consumers and. >> corporates are beginning to worry about the outlook. the issue is in. >> the data today. >> is, of course, that that was measured. >> in the 12th. >> of the month, meaning. >> the 12th.

>> of. >> february. >> that week. >> and that was. >> just. >> before things. >> really started to begin to become more intense on. >> the. >> trade war front. >> and also on the. >> dovish front. >> so from that perspective, the data today. >> at 151,000, it was relatively strong. but it is of course very important. >> is something that now is the. >> rear view mirror compared. >> to some of these. >> risks that we've been talking. >> about in the. >> last few weeks. >> you are expecting the data will deteriorate. just i mean, just factoring those things. more layoffs from the federal government and plus the impact the ding in consumer confidence. >> because i. >> think scott bersin is absolutely right when. >> he's saying. >> that there is some detox period or. >> there is. >> some adjustment. >> costs in going from an economy that looks like what it. >> does today. >> to the economy that the administration is. >> trying to. >> achieve. >> both with a lower level of federal. >> government. >> but also with changes. >> very fundamentally. >> in how big is the manufacturing sector, what's going on with. >> imports that. >> also have to be lower, and that adjustment. >> period can. >> potentially take some time, and. >> it can. >> potentially be painful. >> and it could. >> in the very worst case, also. >> involve the. >> recession, in particular. >> if all the. sentiment data begins to reflect, to be

reflected in the hot data in the form of. weaker economic numbers. >> torsten. >> there's been a lot of focus on government jobs. and to. >> melissa's point. >> if there's going. >> to be. >> more layoffs, put it in perspective. for us, the total government jobs as a percentage of all the jobs. and what would that unemployment rate get, get to if they they canceled all government jobs, which they know they're not going to do. but you have to have the ancillary ones for the for every. government job. there's another. person that's hired in. >> the private sector because of that government entity. >> absolutely. so if you look at total employment. >> in the federal government is. >> about 3. >> million people. >> and if you look at studies from brookings and. >> others show. >> that for every federal employee there are two contractors. so that means that if you have 3. >> million and you. >> add 6 million contractors, you get up to 9 million people, who basically is the true number. >> for what. >> is total federal employment. total employment in the us is about 160 million. so now you have in very round numbers 9 million people. >> out of 160. >> but if you then also. >> take. >> into account. >> that you live in a household. with someone. >> who might be in the. >> private sector, the total. >> number of households is. >> 130 million. and therefore,

if you now say that roughly 10% of all households. >> meaning between 10. >> and 15 million are impacted. >> in some way or. >> another, it's. >> not so. >> much the direct effect of layoffs from federal workers. it's really more. >> the. >> sentiment effect that you begin to see. maybe i. >> should. not be going on. >> vacation, which. >> the. conference board. >> indicators have already been suggesting. maybe i should not be buying that car. maybe we should not be buying. >> that new iphone. >> maybe we shouldn't be buying that new washer and dryer. so the fear is not so much that direct hit from those. even the direct hit from tariffs could also be somewhat limited. it's more the spreading of the sentiment that people begin to pull back and in the worst case say, well, maybe we shouldn't be spent so. >> much. >> in the household sector. and maybe corporates also say, well, maybe we shouldn't hire. if there's such an. elevated level of uncertainty, that could be the real risk where things could really begin to accelerate. >> that's not the scenario. >> that we think is the baseline. we still think we will not get a recession. we think it will. only be a modest negative impact. but we do worry about the sentiment effect, especially if uncertainty persists at this elevated level. >> it's one thing to have a growth. >> scare, torsten. >> it's another thing to think that stagflation is a

possibility, which is sort of gaining some steam these days. is that in your scenario at all or is that unlikely? >> well, i think also i was at the event. >> where jay powell. >> spoke today at the us emp. >> forum, and exactly. >> the question was also. >> asked to him. >> well, how would the fed deal with and how should we generally think about if there is this somewhat unusual scenario of inflation going up a little bit and gdp going down a little bit, because inflation going up says the fed should be hiking and gdp going down, says the fed should be cutting. so that's why what will the fed in the dual mandate put a weight on? i do think that as long as inflation expectations are well anchored, which they absolutely are, this was a very important part of the debate at the conference. if inflation expectations are under control, the fed will absolutely focus on the slowing economy and therefore begin to cut, especially if the unemployment. >> rate begins. the fed put is more in play. >> i do think the fed put is in play. especially next week we get the cpi number. but if we do get also the gdp number, slow down. and even of course the most important thing for the fed, the unemployment rate going up, then the fed will begin to say the unemployment rate going up. that's not good. and we'll

put weight on that. as long as inflation expectations are well anchored, which they absolutely are. >> in your view. is that why the markets turned? >> so i do think that the turbulence and all the downside we're seeing in markets at the moment, because the sentiment indicators that have eroded so much markets is looking at that and saying, well, is this a leading indicator for actual people holding back among consumers and also holding back. >> among hiring. >> and capex spending for companies? and therefore, from a management perspective, it makes sense that the market is saying, well, if this uncertainty persists and if that's the reason why the sentiment indicators are deteriorating, well, then we should expect to see some more holding back in the hard data eventually coming when it comes to consumers and firms and ultimately the unemployment rate. >> dawson. thank you. torsten slok of apollo mike co. >> yeah, i mean, i think it's pretty clear when we take a look at what happened after that meeting that people are sort of seeing, i think what torsten was just talking about, i mean, look, consumer consumer pressures are, you know, we're 70% of the economy. so obviously if you feel like consumer sentiment is deteriorating, then

that means that the demand pressure that could cause some inflation is going to be deteriorating. and, you know, all of the things that he was just talking about on the employment side, i think we all recognize that it's not just the government jobs being lost necessarily, but, you know, it's a combination of other things. and finally, you know, we had, you know, modest $690 billion year on year gdp growth, i think, between 23 and 24. and we were running a $2 trillion deficit. if you go along with besson's argument that we should be looking at 3% of gdp in terms of fiscal debt, then you're going to deal with some economic contraction. and that obviously helps keep a lid on inflation as well. >> i think what's interesting about this week, first of all, torsten just referenced the travel industry, what people are willing to do i mean tough, tough week for airlines, tough, tough week for hotels and travel stocks. but you know, jp morgan's bruce kasman who i really respect, our chief economist sounds like they're kind of reassessing their view on us exceptionalism. and that may not seem extraordinary now. but that's not something i think the entire market has done. and

i think this is something that is going to play out over the next couple of weeks. weaker us gdp, higher global gdp. how do you trade that? >> president trump warning that some reciprocal tariffs could take effect as soon as today, capping a tumultuous week of trade policy, megan costello has been on top of it all. she's got the latest. hey, megan. >> hey, melissa. another day, another tariff threat. and this time it was the president himself released, sowing some confusion about that tariff timeline, suggesting it could be as soon as today or early next week for those reciprocal tariffs. take a listen here to exactly what the president said. >> they'll be met with the exact same tariff unless they drop it. and that's what reciprocal means. and we may do it as early as today, or we'll wait till monday or tuesday. but that's what we're going to do. we're going to charge the same thing. >> melissa, he went on to say, in that same set of oval office remarks earlier today that he reiterated the april 2nd date, saying that was the date for reciprocal tariffs. i've asked white house officials for clarity on this. one told me

that the only definitive thing on the schedule next week on the tariff front continues to be the steel and aluminum tariffs set for march 12th. that's wednesday. so we don't think the reciprocal tariffs are moving up. but it does show you just how fluid things are right now and how top of mind it is for the president. we also heard from the president about the jobs report in that same oval office appearance. and while it was a mixed report, as you guys have been talking about, he really celebrated it. he was specifically focused on manufacturing numbers. he called it a manufacturing turnaround that was coming ahead of schedule. and the report itself, it was about 10,000 manufacturing jobs created, not particularly hot in that department. but the white house does see this as a way that they're going to really boost job growth. kevin hassett acknowledged to me in a separate conversation that they do expect to see some doge cuts showing up in the jobs report later in future months, the next two months. but he also said that they think manufacturing is the way to offset that and that tariffs are the reason that's going to grow. so it shows you a little bit about just where this white house is focused right now

melissa. >> all right. megan. thank you. megan cassella it's funny that megan said that the one next date that is set is next week. when we thought april 2nd was also a firm date. and obviously that's not the case either. so but that goes back to just how crazy things have been. and you just there's no there's no anything that this administration sticks to in terms of playbook. >> well fluid was the term used. >> and i think that's about as polite. >> as one. >> can can. >> fluid or pragmatic. >> yeah. it just again it just really reflects. >> the uncertainty. and that's what you're seeing in the market here. >> again, if we are. >> going to be de-escalating. >> or taking. >> out the fiscal stimulus, it. >> is going to be. >> on the corporate side. and with with. >> their inability. >> to set. >> budgets because they have. >> you know. >> various inputs around their input costs. >> i think. >> that makes. >> it difficult. >> and that's what essentially the market is bearing out. there will be an opportunity for. >> you to step in. >> but i. >> think it's tough at best with. >> a. murky picture. >> this is the looming. issue until you have. >> clarity on that. >> us buying stocks is. >> going. >> to be delayed. and then

because corporates setting their budgets and capex expenditures are. >> also. >> going to. >> be delayed. >> coming up, a markdown on costco shares seeing their worst day in a year after earnings last night. why investors are running away from one of the biggest names in the defensive sector. next. plus rough waters for the cruise stocks this week. what the move says about the state of the travel trade. more state of the travel trade. more fast money at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and legacy-leavers, and what matters most to them matters most to us. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial. ♪♪ only servicenow connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. pfft ... every corner? every corner, nick. ow! so kate in hr ... hey kate. can focus on people, not process. oh actually, i have a question ... keep up, nick. do you have to be sick to take a sick day? patty in it is using ai agents to deal with the small stuff, so she can work on the big stuff. agents like secret agents?

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get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. additions to the s&p 500. kate rooney has got the details. hey, kate. >> hey, melissa. we have a list for you. >> there are some changes. >> to the s&p 100, the 500 and the mid-cap group as well. for the s&p 100. we've got palantir, intuitive surgical, servicenow. those companies are going to replace dow inc, kraft heinz company and the ford motor company. this is in the s&p 100. these companies will remain in the s&p 500. and then moving down the list here you've got doordash getting added to the mid-cap group as well. you also have williams-sonoma expand company borgwarner in the group that is getting replaced. teleflex and celanese corp. finally, here on this list, that

was for the s&p 500 meanwhile. but hims is going to be added to that mid-cap group. so all of this is going to be effective march 24th. that is a monday. it will coincide with some of the quarterly rebalancing. now back over to you. >> all right kate. thanks kate rooney. we should note that there had been some anticipation that coin strategy, formerly known as microstrategy and or hood would be added to the s&p 500. those stocks are trading lower in the after hours session, partly on this sort of burst expectation here. but it's a good day for the purveyor of dutch ovens, tim, in terms of williams-sonoma being added. >> yeah, i'm almost even choking on the news. i mean, really, it was no. and it's interesting here because williams-sonoma is the name. him. >> he's not going. >> to make it. >> he's not going to make it. >> i feel your pain. >> yeah. >> let's just say i don't think the valuation here is that expensive. this is a story that if you've seen actually some of the home improvement, also some of the home furnishings stores, it's been a very rough couple of weeks. williams-sonoma has been

has been probably the exception, given the fact that i think some people were expecting this move. >> all right, let's get to costco now. finishing their worst day in a year. after missing wall street's earnings expectations, the wholesaler beat on revenue, reported an increase, comp store sales number and strong e-commerce numbers. but the ceo warning investors on the conference call that president trump's tariffs will make grocery margins much tighter. mike, this is an interesting case where the well, maybe not so unusual case where the analyst community come come out afterwards, defend the stock and say they are actually much better poised to deal with tariffs than a lot of their competitors, simply because they can just pull the trigger on the mix of goods that they sell in their store. >> yeah, that's one of the strengths that costco has, obviously, that, you know, they have sort of negotiated goods and they basically, you know, they focus on the things where they can offer the best value and they can, as you point out, they can adjust their product mix. i think one of the big issues though, with costco, and this is faced by, frankly, a lot of companies that have performed very, very well. this is 13.5% cagr over the last ten years in

terms of eps growth. but the fact is, this thing is trading at such a rich forward multiple, it just creates a huge sort of air gap that can exist underneath on any kind of a disappointment. and, you know, to be honest, even a 6% pullback in costco is, you know, that's on the holley index. so this is a company i'm very familiar with. but i still find that the turn right now is hard to get behind. >> i agree in terms of the valuation at. about north of 50 times. >> i mean it's tough. i will say i do buy into. >> the. tariff installation story. essentially the ceo. >> came. >> out and said only about 33% of our revenues are from imports, and less than half of that are from canada, mexico and china. so there is some logic there in terms of their ability to one shift mix, but also just what their overall exposure is. i still think this is a top of class name. to mike's point, i think 6% seems to be a relatively run of the mill type of move. all things considered,

if there was really a terror scare and real threat to margins over the long term, i would expect to see this fall significantly lower. >> all right. there's a lot more fast money to come. here's what's coming up next. >> remember when meta was riding an historic 20 day win streak? well, it gave up all those gains at its lows of the day. what to make of the pullback and the volatility in the tech space. we'll find out with long time vc rick heitzmann plus loving it. mcdonald's hitting a new high today as investors bite into the stock. how to trade that move and more of today's big market moves. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square. market site in times square. we're back right after this. it's time. yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday, more dog people are deciding it's time to quit the kibble and feed their dogs fresh food from the farmer's dog.

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cruise lines mounting a comeback late in the day, but still down double digits since monday. and tim mentioned this. airlines finishing deep in the red as investors weigh staffing cuts at the faa and continued uncertainty for the consumer. what do you want to trade, steve? >> i could go with moderna. or mcdonald's. i think moderna, when you look at that chart, you can. easily get. >> a bounce off the lows. >> the chart is horrendous. they need. >> something to. replace the all the. >> vaccines from the pandemic. >> they're working their. >> best. >> to do that. mcdonald's no better operator than mcdonald's. and if you look. at it, 80% of their revenues. come through the drive thru. they've got it. down to the most ordered skus on that drive through. they're using ai with seasonality. it's hard to bet against mcdonald's. >> yeah, i believe in that too. and it's interesting too, because they gave some first quarter comps that were sluggish, weak, they cited weather. et cetera. so i look at the travel stocks and i got to get back to the airlines, which i've been an active investor in airlines for years. i do think we got to a place where people were presuming that these companies were suddenly

bulletproof and going to be able to run through the cyclicality of their core business. so you've seen, excuse me, mcdonald's, you've seen delta airlines go from roughly 70 down to almost the low 50s. hit that 50. you're almost at a 28% retracement. you look at the charts here and it does look like 5152 is not a bad place to possibly rebuild a position. >> yeah. and i'm going to take the cruise lines. i think that's pretty interesting. to me, this might be the proverbial canary in the coal mine. essentially, this whole experiential kind of cohort is really what we're saying is this is where the consumer is going to be. this is where they're going to allocate their last dollar. this is going to be the last thing that they take away. >> is it cruise? >> it's a cruise or some type some type of vacation, some type of experience as opposed to goods. and being that we're seeing weakness here. to me, that coupled with the drop off in consumer confidence, to me, i don't think that should be ignored. >> coming up, tech stocks posting their third straight week of losses as momentum comes out of the megacap tech trade in a big way. we'll talk to investor rick heitzmann about whether these one time darlings can get their mojo back. and remember, tickets are on sale

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>> and is something that. >> we. >> get to use every day. >> welcome back to fast money tech stocks, one of the market's big laggards this week hitting levels not seen since september at their lows of the day. and take a look at shares of meta the once red hot stock nearly erasing all its gains since it started that historic 20 day winning streak in january. it's now down more than 15% from its record high. our next guest expects more market choppiness ahead, but he's optimistic a sustainable rebound is coming. ric heitzman is founder and partner at firstmark capital. he was an early investor in airbnb and shopify. rick, great to have you. great to see you. >> great to be back. thanks for. >> having me. you have been really busy. you've sold ten companies in your portfolio over the past 100 days. what does that speak to? >> i think none of them have been huge. mega-cap sells nothing over $1 billion. >> but a couple that are close. >> and what we're. >> seeing is the m&a wheels are starting to turn. >> okay. >> so. >> you know, a lot of things. >> were on. hold in a.

>> volatile 22 and 23. >> and then people weren't. >> sure about the regulatory environment, especially with the old ftc and 23 and 24. >> and now. >> corporate development. >> in. >> most large companies are back to work and. >> they're back to work. >> they're starting. >> small. like everything starts. and. >> you know, we sold. >> a company. >> to ebay. >> we sold a. >> company to cyberark. >> we sold a company. >> to c.c.c. that are. >> big companies. >> that. >> are starting to add products and do that, and. >> you have. >> to. >> start small before you get big. >> so hopefully we see with a more. >> normal market. >> that people feel better about this being a precursor. >> for much larger. mergers in the. >> second half of. >> the year. >> so you're still optimistic long term, but right now, or is this like an adjustment period? you said that vcs have been overly optimistic over the past six months, and six months happens to be basically since trump was elected. yes. right. and so we're readjusting now. what do we readjust to at this point? and what specifically, in your view, were vcs overly optimistic about? >> so, you know, like most things is, you know. some people say things happen.

>> very slowly then suddenly. and so i think. >> people thought when the. >> administration changed over, there'd be. >> a new ftc chair. and then everything would be. >> much more. >> laissez faire. >> and it doesn't work like that. right? so and then. >> also the. >> new administration has brought a bunch of different crosswinds on. everything from tariffs to everything else going on today. >> it's catching. >> yeah. it's picking up i like it. and so you know you're seeing those those things happen and you're still seeing people getting used to and comfortable with m&a. >> and m&a. >> is also a precursor. >> for. >> the ipo market that you know it creates a competitive tension effectively. so they're lockstep. so i think people are waiting for a few more wins. >> seeing how. >> the customer reacts before. anything goes to gets. >> too crazy. >> well rick, first of all congrats. sounds like you've had a bunch of wins. i mean. >> it's been a great. >> it's been. >> a great couple of months and. >> a time where. >> people have been starving for liquidity. >> so when you think about the backdrop that's had the markets upset are there are there are there are companies in your portfolio? are there subsectors

that you think, wow, this is actually good news. and i think this might be a decent backdrop. and obviously manufacturing and places that really are built towards generating those industries around the united states. and clearly that could be semiconductors, right, in places that we talk about. any thoughts on that? >> so people are still building out the infrastructure for ai. the one thing we haven't seen slow down is capex. and we saw it last week. i think we're going to continue to see it both in reshoring as well. >> as just overall, the hyperscalers. >> continuing to invest. >> so our ai. >> infrastructure plays are. >> still seeing phenomenal fundamental traction. probably the other thing that we've talked about in the past, and we're going to continue to see, is a transition to digital healthcare. and a lot of the players there, like rocco and some of the other folks are seeing that there's just so much demand for healthcare. the system is stressed and you're delivering a better quality care. so some of the things. >> both that are. >> part of the administration's plans or and even independent of those. >> you still. >> see good fundamental demand. >> interesting. >> specifically on the health care, because we've talked about

this many times in terms of ro and telehealth. but as these drug companies move to direct to consumer, is there still a place for ro? i mean, i understand that lilly has the deal with ro to distribute the vials, but novo is going at it looks like by itself. i mean, easily they could just say just come to our site lilly director novo direct and just get it from us. >> you can't because. >> you. >> can't prescribe your own medicine. that would be clear. conflicts. they don't have the infrastructure to deliver that medicine and they don't have the software for adherence. right. so it's, you. >> know. >> do you if you go. >> there. you're going to need someone to still write your prescription, you know, are you qualified for this category of prescription? are you qualified for insurance? you can't pre-qualify someone for your own insurance. that's that wouldn't work either. and then how do i get you the thing? i mean. they're incredibly good at making a large amount of medication at scale, but getting that to the 100 million households. >> the last mile problem. >> it's never going to work. and then, you know, once you get that medication, you know, they've historically relied on

the physician network for you took the medication. do you have side effects? do you not feel good or is it doing what you said? and physicians aren't good at it, but it's better than nothing. and what you're seeing is the digital follow up and the digital way to adhere. you're getting 2 to 3 x adherence. and adherence is super important, right. because everybody wins. the medication works the way it's supposed to be working. you know, you're getting it. you're getting it paid for by insurance. because whether it's heart medication or body medication or whatever it is, everybody wants the medication to work. >> would you short hims? >> i would not short him as i believe that the glp ones were still in the third or fourth inning of a fundamental megatrend. >> all right. it's curious, rick. >> thank you. good question. always good trader. >> yeah. >> and if you would have. asked someone who was trading at $72. >> he. >> might have said he. >> was going to. >> short i maybe maybe it was on the right week. i'm on the right week. >> thank you rick. >> all right. have a wonderful weekend. >> rick heitzmann of firstmark. what do you think about the

adjustments that we've seen and meta's? decline? >> listen, i think meta still is probably one of the predominant magnificent seven names that still has their magnificence. i think they've gotten essentially the way to kind of realize revenue from ai. i think they've gotten that right. you compare that to, say, an apple that's also in that same same cohort. i think they have kind of right sized a lot of their capex spending. granted, they have come out and essentially said they're going to be, you know, kind of continuing to increase that capex spend. but they essentially have proven the use case there in terms of converting capex spends to top line growth. so i still think this will present an opportunity. with that said, it's still caught up in that entire mag seven exchange traded fund type of names. large percentage of the overall index. and i just don't think there's a way to escape that. >> coming up. a rough week for us markets, but not abroad. germany's main index is trading at records inside the biggest moves around the globe next. plus bitcoin falling even as president trump holds the first

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the justice department. our eamon javers has the details here. eamon. >> hey, melissa. >> that's right. the department of. >> justice has just. >> filed its final. >> remedy proposal. here in the google. >> search case. >> you remember. >> that the biden department. >> of. >> justice had. >> requested that. >> google be broken up. >> and sell off. >> the chrome browser. after a judge had found that. google was guilty of anti-competitive conduct and an antitrust case going back. >> several years. >> now. >> the. >> question here. >> was. >> would the. >> trump department. >> of justice. >> back off of that significantly, or even erase it? >> google had. >> asked on national. security grounds to be given some exemptions here. well. >> in. >> this document that was just filed a few moments ago. >> it's a 200. >> plus document, 200 plus page document. we see that the department of justice under donald trump is. >> not backing. >> entirely off of that request by the biden department of justice. they're modifying it slightly, but they're not changing. >> the core. >> requirement that google be broken up. >> a couple. >> of points to highlight for you here. one is that ai investments would be allowed

under this new proposal by the department of justice with advance notification. that is, if they want to make ai investments, they're going to have to work with the department of justice on giving them a heads up about that. that's one way in which this is being loosened up a little bit. there's this question about android, which is very important here. the android divestiture provision. my understanding here of looking at this for not very long is that it is still possible that android will be forced to be divested by google if things don't go well, as they negotiate the future. so watch that space. there are a couple of other items here, including search, text, ad modifications, syndication and data access provisions being clarified. but by and large, melissa, what you have here is the trump department of justice modifying the terms of the deal with google here, but not backing off the central claim that google ultimately be broken up. that's obviously going to be disappointing news for the folks at alphabet.

>> back over. >> to you. so they can sell chrome. they have to sell chrome, but they get to keep ai, so they keep gemini. just those things seem almost inseparable. >> they can continue to make ai investments, is what the text here says. so if they notify the department of justice. so, you know, the question is, will those ai investments be approved by the department of justice? is it just a matter of checking a box and sending an email saying, hey, we're going to make this investment, is that cool with you, or is there a more detailed process? i don't know the answer to that, melissa, to be honest with you. but this is a obviously not what google wanted. and i think in the broader question of where is the trump department of justice? where is the trump ftc even going to come down on m&a and antitrust questions? i think this shows they're hewing a little bit more tightly to the biden model than not. this is a this is a conservative administration, yes, but it's a populist conservative administration now. and this is not necessarily sort of the chamber of commerce rules of the

road here. this is an administration that is largely skeptical of big business, big tech in particular, and these large mergers. and i think what you're seeing here reflects that. >> all right eamon thank you eamon javers obviously there are a lot of questions still that need to be answered regarding this. so we have that. not too many details right now eamon just gave us the latest. mike i'm just curious what what your take is on this. certainly it would be a disappointment for investors. you want google to keep chrome. you want all of the search under one roof, including its ai. >> yeah, i think this is both disruptive and rather disappointing as somebody who is an alphabet fan. but i will say this this is already trading at a pretty material discount. and i kind of hearken back to the breakup of standard oil. you know, the this the sisters ended up in the aggregate trading at a valuation greater than the parent did before it broke up. that might happen here too. >> yeah, i would agree with mike. i mean, i'm not even going to speculate on that because i

think the market hasn't even priced this in. i think if anything, we just added their numbers. the disappointment was really on the growth multiple. >> coming up, the crypto trade, getting president trump's backing at the first ever white house crypto summit today. so why is bitcoin down? we'll check with our next guest about the most bullish aspect of the strategic bitcoin reserve. that is next. more fast money in two. >> june 5th, cnbc's fast money live returns and you can get in on the action. >> it is a. >> very special night here on fast money. >> join melissa lee and the team of traders live and on air. >> for 18 years this has been on my bucket list. >> it was awesome. >> the energy in that room was great. an exclusive in-person experience at the iconic nasdaq market site in new york city. get your tickets now at cnbc events.com/fast money. events.com/fast money. >> money, money. it's odd how in an instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. (the stock market is now down 23%).

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for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. digital asset summit today. the attendees included the ceos of strategy, coinbase, robinhood and ripple. the meeting comes a day after president trump signed an executive order establishing a u.s. strategic bitcoin reserve. for more on what all this means for crypto, we're joined by vaneck's head of

digital assets research, matthew siegel. matthew, great to have you with us. you're bullish, obviously, and a lot of people in the crypto community are. but but why now knowing that taxpayer dollars will not be used to buy additional bitcoin only in a revenue neutral way, and that they're going to start with just the bitcoin that they have. why is this positive for the price. >> well. this. >> is a huge deal. because president trump. >> has laid down a path. to the. >> us being a leader in bitcoin and. >> digital assets. >> and ending the. regulatory weaponization of. >> the last four years that drove so many. >> entrepreneurs offshore. >> so he's instructed his cabinet to explore all possible. >> paths to adding. >> to the government's. >> existing 200,000. >> bitcoin. >> and treasury. >> secretary benson also said today that he will work with. >> the irs to rescind. >> and revamp all of. the tax guidance that the. >> irs has. >> already put forward. so i think basically this does three things. it significantly lowers

the risk of the us government ever banning bitcoin. >> and judging from my conversations with investors, people. still worry. >> about that. >> it also. increases the likelihood. >> that other nations will create. >> bitcoin reserves. and we're starting to see. >> motion on. >> that front. >> and then it makes it very. >> challenging for. >> institutions and agencies to label bitcoin as unsafe or unsuitable. >> which still comes up. >> so this establishes bitcoin in a separate. category from other. >> digital assets. >> and it. opens room. >> for congress. >> to start the process. >> of crafting. >> legislation on. >> additional bitcoin. >> purchases. >> which could be a. >> standalone bill like senator. >> loomis has put forward. or it could be packaged into. a reconciliation. so and i. >> think. >> applying this revenue neutral condition removes the fear that this is going to be used, that

taxpayer funds would be used to acquire bitcoin. i think that's a very savvy thing. so it's a monumental milestone for the industry. and we think there's a good chance that it leads to the government buying bitcoin over the next year. >> matthew, unfortunately we are out of time. we had breaking news on google. thanks for coming by i appreciate it. coming by i appreciate it. matthew siegel, up next, final at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best. with personal financial advice from an advisor you can trust, and goal-based investing and solutions. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial advice worth talking about. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean, not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, candidates can find it easier.

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a story that i think is as good bonawyn. >> i do think it's eventually this volatility will subside, but in the meantime, i'm looking for a place to hide out. >> stephen and pete materials. >> i'm up 60%. i should probably be selling it. i bought more today. >> all right. thanks for watching folks. have a great weekend. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple to. >> make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull. >> market somewhere and i promise to help. >> you find it. mad money. >> starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate, to teach you. so call me. >> at one. >> 873 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. i want you to listen to me. breathe in breathe out slowly like a minute. and don't take any action until you're certain that you can handle any