available. you couldn't ask for more support. >> it just is. >> a game changer because you can feel. >> confident through. >> the. >> highs and the lows. the club. creates confident. investors no matter what the climate. >> get invested. join the club today. go to cnbc.com. slash join jim. >> will it or won't it. the dreaded r-word coming front and center. but when it comes to. >> a recession, the white house does not seem to be. >> on the same page. >> as the president. >> the president. deflecting when asked if we're. >> headed. >> for one. >> but the. commerce secretary. emphatically saying no. >> so what now? recession risk contradiction. >> that, along with tariff fears rattling wall street once again this morning, futures, as you can see sharply lower, with the s&p 500 coming off its worst week in six months. and fed chairman jay powell appears. >> to not really. >> be sweating the situation. we get former cleveland bank president loretta mester. >> her take on. >> all of it. >> it's monday. >> march the 10th, 2025. you're watching worldwide exchange

right here. >> on cnbc. >> good monday morning. thanks so much for being here with us. >> i am frank hollins. >> get you ready for the trading day ahead. we begin with the us markets. major indices finishing higher on friday. however, the s&p 500, coming off its worst week. since september. also end a three week losing streak. take a look at futures right now. >> you can. >> see we're. >> in the red. >> across the board. actually i believe hitting our lows of this morning so far. so take a look. looks like the dow would open. about 450 points lower down just about 1%. >> the s&p. >> down nearly 70. >> points. >> down more than 1%. >> the nasdaq. >> the hardest hit down 250 points, down more than 1%. nearly 1.25%. right now. so this action after that weaker than expected jobs report and comments from fed chair jay powell. on friday about fomc rate decisions and the impact of the trump administration policies. as we parse. >> the. incoming information. >> we are. >> focused on separating. >> the. >> signal from the noise.

>> as the outlook. >> evolves. >> we do not need to be. >> in a hurry. >> and we are. >> well positioned to wait. >> for greater clarity. >> so again. >> those comments, they seem to be the. catalyst for a higher finish. >> on friday. >> but you can see again. >> the market is under a bit of pressure. we'll start off with the s&p 500 laggards right here at the top of the list. >> dexcom. >> these shares pulling back just about 3.5%. the medical device maker getting a warner letter from. warning letter from the fda. >> about some of its facilities. >> supermicro tesla, palantir and micron rounding out the worst performers. on the. >> other. >> side of the coin, the best performers right. >> now in. >> the premarket. taking a look at those cognizant tech, those. >> shares moving. >> almost 6% higher. this is. >> following activist. >> investor mantle ridge. >> investing in about. >> $1 billion, or at least. >> revealing $1 billion. >> stake in the company. molina healthcare, borgwarner, airbnb and aon rounding out the. >> top five on the s&p. >> we also want to check. >> the etfs. that follow countries facing tariffs from. president trump. >> taking a. >> look right now, you can see here's the real notable one right now, the nki. that tracks china pulling back. >> more than 1.5%. >> the iww that tracks mexico up

fractionally. >> right now. >> and we also want to take a check of. steel and aluminum prices. >> since the trump administration. >> announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, also ending exemptions for. countries that the administration had said created loopholes for chinese sellers. those steel. >> and. >> aluminum tariffs they take effect this week. we're going to be talking with the ceo. >> of century aluminum. about the impact of those. >> tariffs on wednesday. but taking. >> a look at the moves when it comes to steel and aluminum. >> since the white house announced those tariffs, you can see steel over there jumping up just about 6%. >> but cooling. >> off recently aluminum moving just about. 1% higher. again. >> we're going to talk to the ceo of one of the. >> biggest aluminum producers. >> here in the. >> u.s. coming up on wednesday. all right. >> moving on. >> to treasury yields rising. >> just a bit after. >> that weaker than expected jobs report. >> taking a look at the benchmark. >> at 4.24 right now. we also. >> have been watching the moves when. >> it comes. >> to the two year. we're going to be talking about the two year coming up with our market guest right now, but still below 4% right now. >> right now. >> at 3.94. and then we also want to look. >> at crypto. >> crypto actually moving lower after that white. >> house cryptocurrency summit.

>> taking a look at bitcoin. >> right now coming in at about 81,600. >> a coin. pulling back about 1.25%. ether actually moving higher. >> but you're. >> seeing other parts of the crypto complex under. >> some. pressure right now. okay. >> that's your setup. now let's see how europe is shaping. >> up as this trading. >> day gets underway. >> our sylvia. >> amaro is in our london newsroom with a look at the early action. sylvia. >> good morning. >> very good morning, frank. i have to say, the european investors are starting this week on a downbeat mood. investors very much concerned with these narratives around the trade tensions. so let me show you how the different bourses are faring at this stage. we have the ftse 100 down half of a percent. but look at the moves in germany. we are down almost 1%. so let's see how the european bourses will continue to move for the rest of the day. but no doubt that those trade tensions are atop a focus for european investors. this as the us commerce secretary,

howard lutnick, says that steel and aluminum tariffs will take effect on wednesday as planned. administration officials have said that the policy aims to stop countries including china and russia, avoiding existing levies. and, of course, us steel makers have urged the president not to delay these measures. but here on the continent, frank, i have to say that the european investors are worried about what's going to happen next. >> all right, sylvia, thank you very much. >> our sylvia. >> amaro live in our. >> london newsroom. >> time now for a check on some of this morning's top. corporate stories. silvana henao is here with those. silvana. >> good morning. >> hey, frank. >> good monday morning to you. >> well, mixed messaging. >> coming from the trump administration yesterday on possible recession. >> risks stemming. >> from the president's tariffs. now. >> president trump not willing. >> to rule out an. economic pullback while commerce secretary. >> howard lutnick. >> took a harder. stance on. >> the potential risks. >> listen in. >> i hate to. >> predict things like that. >> there is. a period.

>> of transition. >> because what we're doing is very big. we're bringing wealth back to america. that's a big thing. and there are always. >> periods of. it takes a little time. >> should americans brace for. >> a recession? >> absolutely not. >> anybody who bets against donald trump, it's like the same people who thought donald trump wasn't a. >> winner a year ago. >> donald trump is a winner. >> he's going to win. >> for the american people. that's just the way it's going to be. there's going to be no recession in america. >> and the comments from. president trump and lutnick came. >> ahead of chinese. tariffs on agricultural. >> products taking. >> effect today, as leaders in beijing call on the white house to. come to the negotiating table. >> and house speaker mike. >> johnson unveiling a. >> short term funding bill. >> to avoid. >> a government. >> shutdown at the end of this week. now, the plan would fund the government through the end of september.

>> johnson has suggested. >> he would bring. the bill to the house floor for a vote. >> likely tomorrow. frank. >> all right, savannah, thank you very much. >> see you just a bit later. >> in the show. all right. turn our attention back over to the us markets. the uncertainty over tariffs and worries about a possible recession and a looming government shutdown propelling u.s. >> markets to their. >> third straight negative week. the s&p 500, seeing its worst week since september. joining me now, kelly cox, chief market strategist at ritholtz wealth management. kelly good morning. >> good to see you. >> yeah. >> good morning frank. >> hate that we have. >> to talk on terms like this, but let's. >> break it down. well, let's get into those terms right now. we're seeing futures under very heavy selling pressure right now. the s&p and the nasdaq both down more than 1%. what do you make of this. because we did finish higher on friday follows jay powell comments. what do you think is leading to this shift in sentiment. >> well i think this is. >> a carryover from the jobs. >> numbers we. >> saw on friday, frank, and. >> the layoff. >> numbers that we saw on. >> thursday from challenger, gray and christmas. >> the s&p. i also. >> you know, have to.

>> point out that the. >> s&p is dancing along its 200 day moving average which. >> is. >> an important line in the sand here. >> so i think. >> investors are. >> still just trying to. >> find their. footing with all of these. headlines and all of this data coming in. >> you know, is this true. economic weakness we're seeing, or. >> is this just another head fake? and should. >> we believe. powell here that the economy is fine. >> all right. so that's a great question. should we believe powell. should we believe the white house. we're just playing a soundbite from the commerce secretary saying emphatically, no, we're not heading towards a recession. the president himself seemed to be kind of hedging his bets. if you're concerned about a possible recession coming up, how should you manage your portfolio? >> well, first of all, i hate that the r word is being thrown around here because it's a pretty. serious word. most bear markets. >> correlate with recessions. >> you can see. >> that throughout history. >> i mean. >> if you. >> believe the jobs numbers. >> then yes, you should be worried about. >> an economic downturn here. i'll just be honest, i can't sugarcoat it. unemployment is going up. layoffs are higher and will be higher in the march jobs report that we'll get about in about a month. we're seeing

underemployment spike as well. >> there's there are a. >> lot of moving pieces here. but i hate that you're seeing weakness in the job market. and i think if you believe that the economy is. >> showing significant cracks at this moment, you. >> have to hug defensive. >> sectors. >> especially because. >> they have. >> that rate cut sensitivity as well. >> what about bonds? >> a lot. >> of people kind of piling into the short end. >> of the of. >> the bond curve. right now, the two year in particular, we're just talking about some of the moves there. and also you're very bullish. i don't know if you're bullish, but you're saying right now might be a good time to buy tips. >> well i think i think very bullish. >> is an overstatement. >> i think you have to believe. >> in this bull market. >> here, frank. i think, you. >> know, it's a lot harder to get back into a market than it is to sell. and i know it's easy to sell at the moment. a lot of investors are, you know, trigger happy for very good reasons. you know, the bond market. >> is an interesting. >> question right now because we're staring. >> at inflation. >> risks and we're staring at growth risks. and of course there are counterbalances here. you know, if we. see more of a breakdown. >> in. >> the. job market, then.

>> that will. naturally help. >> you know. tame inflation at the moment in the worst way possible. >> i might add. >> that's not the. >> right way to tame. >> inflation. >> but i think the bond market you have to be tactical here. treasuries of course, are that classic economic hedge. i think you have. >> to look a little. >> more toward the belly of the curve when you're hedging there. >> but i also think it's. >> important to hold on to tips because as we've seen over. >> the past few months. >> tips are that hedge against unexpected inflation. and there are a lot of. unexpected headlines floating around. >> at the moment. >> all right. so tips seem to be kind of a safety play right now. but you're also saying stay nimble right now in your mind. some of these dips we're seeing are they viable. if they are where would you buy. >> i think. >> these dips are viable. >> until we get more information on the job market. unemployment is still low. companies are still hiring. >> that's one of. >> the bright spots that we. saw on friday. you know, i think of course we serve longer term clients. so we encourage. >> them to have. >> a wish list here and to. think about, you know, what the growth stories. >> could be. >> over the. next five, ten, 15 years. but if you're. looking

out over the next year or so, i think you have to. >> stay defensive. i think. >> you have to. >> you know. >> tilt toward value here. look for the companies and the sectors that are trading close to their. earnings and. prioritize stability and consistency. we just had two years of 20% plus gains in the s&p 500. don't get too greedy at the moment. try to preserve what you've built here. >> you know kelly we got to go. but really quickly. everybody says they're a long term investor. but even if you're a long term investor, you do need to make short term and intermediate moves. is there one sector right now that you see potentially having the biggest opportunity to buy the dip? when it comes to some of the weakness that we've seen? >> well. >> that's a really good question. and you're right i guess that goes back to stability and consistency. you can't be you can't benefit from a market that you're not. invested in. >> so again. >> i think you look at the defensive sectors here, you maybe, you know, look at some rate cut plays as tactical opportunities. i think. >> real estate. >> might be interesting at the moment, but you can't expect these trades to play out. you know, anytime over the past the next month or two. you have to

be really careful and set your expectations there. >> but even a long term investor has to make some moves in the short term to get the long term benefit. kelly cox, it is always a pleasure. we got to have you back on more often. great to see you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. we got a lot more to come here on worldwide exchange, including the one word that investors have to hear today and the dividend strategy that may offer. investors some protection in this market. that's seeing a whole lot of turbulence. >> but first. >> questions around elon musk's ties to china and the possible conflicts of interest are. eunice yoon has been following the money. plus, europe bracing to face the wrath of president trump's global trade war. how one country is navigating the tariff uncertainty of trump 2.0. and then later, former cleveland fed president loretta mester. she's here. she's going to lay out where the fed goes from here on its rate path plans following friday's jobs report. we have a very busy hour. still ahead when very busy hour. still ahead when worldwide at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, parents and caretakers, believers and breadwinners.

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get paid when you say. >> and welcome back to worldwide exchange. taking a look at futures. right now you can see futures down about 1% or more across the board. the s&p down just about a 1.25%. the nasdaq down about one and a third. very quickly we're going to show you the nasdaq 100 premarket laggards. taking a look at those this morning. some of the stocks moving the nasdaq 100 lower. applovin among those names. a couple other names we're going to show you here. applovin right there at the top list strategy formerly microstrategy pulling back more than 6% as we see bitcoin continue to slide right there on the list. you also see marvell and palantir. another one to note right there. tesla

shares down more than 3% in the premarket. and speaking of tesla, just last week, the ev maker lost more than 10%. that marks the seventh straight week of declines. that's a record for tesla. that slide began right around the time that elon musk went to washington to continue his work with the trump administration. meanwhile, the financial times is reporting that wealthy chinese investors are funneling tens of millions of dollars into private companies that are controlled by elon musk. the ft says that includes x.ai, neuralink and spacex, with china based asset managers promoting the relationship between elon musk and president trump as they work to raise capital. elon musk and his business ties within china. they've raised numerous questions about potential conflicts of interest due to his role in the trump administration. our eunice yuen follows the money that elon musk has in that country. >> that is tesla's. >> main factory. it's a $2. >> billion. >> investment that produces. >> about 1. >> million cars a year. >> one out of every two. teslas in the world. >> are made there. by last june,

elon musk's ev maker had 520 stores. >> in the country. >> tesla sold more than 650,000 cars last year, roughly. >> a third of. >> global sales, thanks to stores like the one behind me. the shanghai store is the largest in china. it spans one and a half football fields. >> tesla's latest. model y, codenamed juniper, is on display. >> as a testament to the importance of the china market. this new model y was launched here before the u.s. weeks after musk started his work with the. >> u.s. government. >> tesla opened this new operation in china, a $200 million powerpack factory. >> last year. >> it showcased. >> its. >> cybertruck humanoid robot. >> musk pitched. >> his cyber cabs. >> on a trip where. >> he met. >> the chinese premier. >> and to compete with chinese. carmakers like this one, testing autonomous driving. tesla rolled. out a software update in february meant to closely mimic its full self-driving features in the us.

>> i'm in a robotaxi. >> i'm on. >> a route. >> that's been approved. >> for an initial group of companies. >> to be able. >> to experiment with their self-driving technologies. tesla isn't one of them. that's why. >> musk tries to stay in the chinese. government's good graces. he's opposed. >> u.s. tariffs on chinese evs, as he did to cnbc. at an event. >> in paris. >> neither tesla. >> nor i. asked for. >> these tariffs. >> musk has made. favorable comments about china's unification with taiwan. >> there's some. inevitability to the situation. >> a far cry from wielding. >> a chainsaw. >> at. >> the. >> u.s. government. >> the white house doge. and tesla didn't. respond to our requests. >> for comment. frank. >> eunice, great reporting as always. kind of seeing you everywhere around in beijing. i'd assume some other towns there. i do want to ask you, you were mentioning that the autonomous drive testing that was going on, it didn't include tesla. what is the view of elon musk in china? >> well, for the most. >> part, he's viewed as.

>> pro-china and. >> then practical as a businessman, in fact. today. >> people were. >> talking. >> about how. >> he was. >> carrying. around the handbag. >> of siouxsie wiles, that video and saying that. >> here he is managing the right people. but from. >> an investor standpoint. we spoke. >> to some tesla buyers. >> and they were saying that unlike. >> in the u.s, they really. >> weren't put off by musk's. >> activity in the u.s. >> government and. >> said they were very. >> much focused on. >> the new model y. and then the tesla workers. we did speak. >> to some of them. >> and they said they were concerned that the. overseas sales would drop. >> and that that. >> would affect. >> their jobs. >> and they were telling us that they. >> were hoping that he would. >> focus more on the business. >> frank. >> i think a lot of u.s. investors feel the exact same way. our eunice yoon live in beijing. eunice, great reporting as always, and great to see you. still on deck here on worldwide exchange. canada's next pick for prime minister to replace justin trudeau. he's not holding back when it comes to president trump's tariffs, the strategy he plans to take when dealing with the white house. we're going to tell you that and much, much more in worldwide exchange more in worldwide exchange returns. stay with us

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>> as we. >> know, has put. >> as the prime minister just. >> said. >> unjustified tariffs on. >> what we build. >> on what we sell, on how we make a living. >> he's attacking. >> canadian families. workers and businesses, and we cannot let him succeed. >> and we won't. >> carney's win marks the first time an outsider with no real political background will become canada's prime minister. all right. we're going to stick with president trump and his ongoing tariffs campaign. eu leaders are keeping a close watch on washington and what the president's next moves may be. after previously threatening tariffs on the eu, that will likely be a focus for ireland's leader when he meets with president trump later this week. for a closer look at relations between the us and ireland, let's bring in michael logan, ceo of ida ireland, which promotes foreign investments in ireland. good morning. great to have you. >> good morning frank. great to be here. >> so first off i want to just get your take on tariffs. obviously you guys have a big

amount of things that you export into the us. pharmaceuticals being one of the top things. nearly half of your exports are pharmaceuticals about 45%. how concerning is it these us tariffs. do you believe that the eu or maybe pharmaceuticals or some parts of the things that you export may get carve outs. >> yeah. >> so i think. >> if we look at irish economy. >> first and then. >> i'll speak to europe. >> as well. if we look at irish. >> economy, you know, we. >> have a very strong economy. >> you know, the fundamentals are very robust in our economy. and it's been driven by a pro-enterprise policy over the last number of decades. and we've seen the benefits of a proven, stable location that supports, supports international markets and maybe just. >> for, for, for. >> for viewers to put in the context of the fdi in ireland, 85% of everything we export from ireland actually goes outside of north america. so it's supporting international markets. i think that's a key component is that ireland is a gateway for fdi into europe and beyond as well. and if we look at the broader peace in europe, then the us, european trade is actually the largest trading bloc in the globe. and it

continues to be very proactive. i think the overall tariffs across europe is just at a mere 1%. so it shows a balance and maturity within that trade relationship between the us and europe as well. and obviously we want to continue to see that to grow. >> well obviously, you know, the us and ireland have good trade relations, a very positive relationship. but some data came out just a short time ago looking at the disparity when it comes to imports and exports, you have a surplus compared to the us of about ■k750 billion. that's something that the administration has really talked about, these trade surpluses. how concerning of this. and again, i want to come back. i'm sure that your leader is going to talk about carve outs and exemptions for different products, and the fact that ireland is also one of the biggest investors in the us. >> and i think you're correct. so i think it's a two way element. so you're correct. there is a trade surplus in goods. but if you include services and you look on the balance, actually that surplus goes in the other direction from a us perspective to ireland. so if you you must look at it in the whole i think because what we would believe is that ireland, you know, plays its part in terms of supporting us

companies to expand outside of the north america and into into europe. and as you rightly say, ireland is now the sixth largest investor in the us. so it's a it's a mutually beneficial relationship in both directions. and we're seeing that both in terms of trade, in terms of, of, of the us supporting jobs in both economies. so there is at this juncture, there are over well over 150,000 people. employed in by irish companies in the us. >> i want to make it clear to the audience when we're talking about foreign direct investment, that's what you're talking about actually being the sixth biggest. that's a foreign country investing. >> in. >> investing in. >> the us. correct. >> right. there we go. one last question for you. overall, when we're just looking at the state of affairs when it comes to the trump administration, how is it changing? perhaps some of the businesses that decide to be domiciled in ireland or some of them getting concerned, maybe looking to move operations or move a part of their operations? how is that dynamic of this tariffs and the uncertainty around them? it seems they shift and change quite a bit. how is that impacting the companies that choose to be in ireland? >> yeah. so i think i think the word you use there is uncertainty. i think there is a level of uncertainty in my

experience, what investors look for, no matter where you're looking across the globe, is policy certainty and stability. and i think at the moment we have probably a lot of movement in that in that area. i don't believe we're going to see an exodus from ireland. i think ireland is a proven location with good talent that supports international business, but there certainly is a level of uncertainty given the continued change from a policy perspective. >> well, one thing i know, i think on the us side and on the ireland side, there's one consensus everybody wants to carve out for guinness. nobody wants to see tariffs on guinness. >> yeah, well we certainly don't want to see that. we certainly don't want to see tariffs on anything. but certainly we take guinness as well. >> from what i'm hearing guinness is one of the top concerns at least here in the us. i don't know what it is in ireland. >> well it's always good to have a product so well known across the globe, which has its innovation and its roots in ireland. >> so michael, thank you so much for joining us. appreciate your time and your insight. >> thank you and happy saint patrick's day. >> thank you very much in advance. all right. as we head to break here on worldwide exchange, a very quick check. quick check of shares of apple. the company announcing on friday it's delaying an ai upgrade for siri, saying it's taking longer than expected to make the digital assistant more

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a 700 credit score. join me at time.com. >> despite elevated. >> levels of uncertainty, the. >> us economy. >> continues to be in a good place. the labor market. >> is solid. and inflation has moved. closer to our 2%. longer run goal. >> and that was fed chairman jay powell on friday, giving a positive view on the state of the us economy following the monthly jobs report. the central bank getting its next big test with the latest look at inflation coming up this week. welcome back to worldwide exchange i'm frank colin. coming up this half an hour. former cleveland fed president loretta mester. she is standing by with how president trump's tariffs could complicate the fed's fight to get inflation down to 2%. but

first we're going to begin with the us markets getting ready for the trading day ahead. major indices finishing higher on friday. however, the s&p coming off its worst week since september. taking a look at futures right now we've been talking about this all morning long. futures are in the red across the board. the s&p down just about 51 points just about down 1%. the dow off of its lows of earlier was still down just about 330 points. also down just about three quarters of 1%. the nasdaq the hardest hit point. excuse me on a percentage basis down more than 1%. down just about 200 200 points. so this action we're seeing in the premarket after a weaker than expected jobs report on friday, and comments from fed chair jay powell about the fomc, its rate decisions and the impact of the trump administration policies. as we parse the. >> incoming information. >> we are. focused on. >> separating the signal. >> from the noise. >> as the outlook. >> evolves. >> we do not need. >> to be in a hurry. >> and we. >> are. >> well positioned to wait for greater. >> clarity and continue to follow the market action after that. the statements from jay powell on friday, again, it was a higher close on friday, but

this morning markets under quite a bit of pressure at 11 right here at the top of the worst performer shares pulling back more than 6% strategy formerly microstrategy pulling back more than 5%. stock often trades with weakness when we're looking at bitcoin, marvell, asml and dexcom rounding out the bottom five performers right now on the nasdaq 100. the other side of the coin, the best performers on the nasdaq 100. taking a look. cognizant tech right here at the top of the list. this is after news that mantle ridge, an activist investor, has about $1 billion stake in that company. doordash, airbnb, o'reilly and biogen rounding out the top five. right now, we also want to check the etfs that track the countries facing tariffs from president trump. taking a look at the moves here, the big one, the notable one right now is the mcci that tracks china, pulling back more than 1.5%. the ww just fractionally higher right now. also a check of steel and aluminum prices. since the trump administration announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. those tariffs they take effect this week. you can see steel prices have moved just about 6% higher since that announcement, even though cooling off a bit in

recent weeks, aluminum prices moving more than 1% higher during that time. we're going to speak with the ceo of century aluminum coming up on wednesday. we also want to look at treasuries this morning, rising just a bit after that weaker than expected jobs report, the benchmark coming in at 4.25% right now. and we want to take a look at cryptocurrency. also seeing cryptocurrency making some moves but moving lower after that. white house crypto summit on friday. taking a look at bitcoin right now, trading at about 82,875 a coin. just moving just a quarter of a percent higher. right now we're seeing some shifts in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. this morning. it was trading a bit lower earlier today also seeing ether up just about 4% right now. the other ones making some upside moves as well okay that is your setup. now i want to turn back to president trump and also some of his sweeping economic agenda, especially tariffs cutting spending and limiting immigration and how that could cause some short term turbulence. those moves, they may be testing the resilience of the u.s. economy, which is showing some early signs of strain. in an interview on fox

news yesterday, the president declined to rule out a recession this year, although his commerce secretary, howard lutnick, says it's not a possibility. >> i hate to predict things like that. >> there is. >> a period. >> of transition. >> because what we're doing is very big. we're bringing wealth back to america. that's a big. >> thing, and. >> there are always periods of. it takes a. >> little time. should americans brace for a. >> recession? >> absolutely not. >> let's get more insight now with former cleveland fed president loretta mester. she's currently an adjunct professor of finance at the university of pennsylvania and also a cnbc contributor. loretta, good morning. good to see you. >> morning, frank. >> how are you? >> well, first, i want to get your take on jay powell's comments. just the tone of it was the fed seems to be taking a wait and see approach. however, we are starting to see a lot of cracks in the economy. the consumer especially stretched right now. >> yeah, i mean. jay did get a. very calming kind of speech. >> to talk about, sort of like

where he sees the economy and where fomc sees the economy. and i think he has it. basically right. i think what people are concerned about is, well, okay, where is the economy going? not necessarily where. >> it is now, but the fed is well placed to. >> be able to respond. way. >> no matter. >> what happens in terms of whether the gross side of the economy is going to slow more than expected, or whether the inflation. >> side of the economy is going to. >> not do as well as. >> they hoped. so i think monetary. >> policy is well placed. >> the real. >> concern is sort of. >> where are things. >> going, given the uncertainty around. >> some of the administration policies. >> so it's interesting for you to say that the fed seems well placed as we continue to see, i guess, rising calls that are rising fears. i should say that we may be headed towards a recession. i also want to play a soundbite from the treasury secretary on friday right here on cnbc, something he said about the consumer and get your take on it. >> top 10%. >> of americans. are 40 or 50%. >> of consumption. >> and that is an. unstable

equilibrium. >> the bottom. >> 50% of working americans have gotten killed. >> so, loretta, i want to get your take on that. and how concerning is that? and i mean, if we're seeing just 10% of people doing about 50% of the spending, doesn't that put us in an even more precarious position, whether it comes to an economic downturn or a real recession? >> yeah. >> i'm not sure. >> that's that's really news. anything new in the economy? >> that's typically. >> what you see is that the. >> people who are wealthier. >> are going to do more. >> spending, but. it's the. >> it's the lower income people. >> you. >> know, the median income people. >> who actually. >> represent more of the. >> the volatility in spending. >> and the growth in spending. >> so in some sense, you do have to be. concerned more about what's going to. >> happen to the lower. >> income people. so again. >> now we're talking about levels. >> of spending. >> versus growth rates. and i think that's also what people get sort of confused about in terms of when. >> the fed says tariffs. >> we could. >> probably look. through them. they're one of changes and

they're. >> not inflationary. when people go to the grocery. >> store and they see higher. >> prices, they're concerned. >> about them. so i think. partly what's going on is there is a big adjustment in the economy. i think you. do have to. >> look at scenarios of what could happen, and we could see. >> the economy. >> slow more than people are expecting. >> the chaos. >> from doge, the uncertainty. >> because of the tariffs right there. that uncertainty. >> could reduce. >> spending and. reduce hiring. and we're already starting to see that when you talk to businesses, they're on a wait and see attitude. and we saw that the last trump. administration when he put on tariffs. >> you know. >> there was a lot of uncertainty around that. >> and we did. >> see the economy slow. >> so when you do scenario analysis and what what. >> could be happening to the economy. going forward, you. >> have to be contemplating. >> that there. >> could be a. >> more marked slowdown. than you expect. not my base case, but. >> you have to entertain that. that might be. >> a possibility and you have.

>> to entertain that. there could be. >> the tariffs. >> actually being. >> inflationary this time because of the starting point. the economy already has inflation higher than expected. we're already seeing. inflation expectations moving up. if those become a little unstable and moving up, we're not going to get to inflation being back to 2% in the near term. >> well, i hate to interrupt you. i know so many of our watchers want to hear your perspective on everything. but i do have to ask you, you said chaos from doge. and at the same time you're saying that the fed is well positioned. they're well positioned for chaos. i mean, looking at the numbers from apollo, there's about 3 million federal workers, about 6 million federal contractors. a lot of them could be disrupted. how does the fed view that? as you know, it continues. and we're expecting to see weakness in the jobs report. and they also do their five year strategic review. i mean, very quickly. and i hate to rush you, but but how can you say we're facing chaos from doge and at the same time be well positioned. >> well positioned. >> in terms. >> of being able to. >> react if the economy responds in a different way. so, for example, if it turns out that the economy is, you know,

getting weaker than they expect, they can bring rates down if it turns out that inflation is hanging up. more than they want, they're going to have to be a. >> little more. >> staying where they are for longer. and i suspect that that might be the right strategy here. you stay where you are until you actually get more evidence that there's a material weakening in the economy. again, not my base case, but i think you have to be prepared and then be prepared to bring rates down later in the year. >> we can continue this conversation, i think, for the whole hour. i think it's the question for the markets right now, but it's great to see you. thanks for spending your time with us and sharing your insight, as always. loretta mester. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, the race to secure power for a rising energy demands. we're going to talk to one company on the front lines of shoring up the infrastructure needs. that's coming up right after this coming up right after this brea before the spotlight— we struggled to keep the lights on. i saw more for myself. and sofi gives members the financial tools to see more for themselves. join the official bank of the nba.

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for barbecues and other things going on down there in houston. what's the reaction to the decline in oil prices at least year to date? i'm looking at the charts wti down double digits year to date. >> yeah i mean. we constantly. >> deal with the. >> volatility in these markets. so i would say that generally. >> speaking you know. >> the mood in the. >> marketplace here in houston is. >> still pretty bullish. i mean the bottom line is that, you know we're here gathered at sierra week to talk about the energy challenges that are ahead of us with the ai story. and so the underpinning of the basis for the demand is, is not falling short of the expectations to continue to, you know, cause the houston market to thrive because of its focus on energy. >> all right. so your company you have a lot of big name customers i'm talking amazon, a lot of the big energy companies as well. we're talking about tariffs. how much uncertainty is that injecting into your business. and also the business of your customers. also want to

talk to you about the steel and aluminum tariffs. does that impact your ability or at least the pricing of building facilities for energy or water or the other things that your company does? >> you know, frankly. >> we've been through. several changes in the supply chain over the course of the last five years. i mean, the pandemic was one great example of the challenges to the supply chain. and, you. >> know. >> our company has been around for 110 years. we've gone through lots of changes in these underlying base commodities, and ultimately, we've been able to contain and maintain the. >> progress that is essentially. >> necessary for human progress. and so. >> you know, we're at. >> a, you know. very critical point in our narrative to provide infrastructure. you know, we there's clever ways that we've continued to kind of manage the supply chain challenges. you know, our clients. are rising to the occasion and figuring out. >> you know. >> essentially how to navigate these waters because of these past experiences, are really

calling upon the excellence that we. exerted in those past cycles. the bottom line is that we still have to continue. >> to, you. >> know, advance the human infrastructure that underpins really the expectations of society. >> and to. >> continue to create energy abundance where scarcity continues to, you know, dominate. >> so, charlie, the bottom line for us, last year, we kept hearing about companies spending a lot of money to build up their ai infrastructure, specifically data centers this year. how does it compare to what you heard from companies last year? i know that's what you're really down there to talk about and have tariffs. has that impacted the sentiment from these from these different companies? we know the capex plans of microsoft and alphabet and those kind of things. but more broadly, what's the sentiment when it comes to building out this ai infrastructure? >> no. >> absolutely not. not no change in the disposition. i mean, i think the ambition remains steadfast. the data center story is not slowing down. you know, there's been, you know,

essentially a realization that. >> you know. >> as part of the progress that i've been talking about, that we need to continue to invest here in the us and frankly, globally to progress this. and there's a lot. >> of. >> benefits that are going. >> to come from the enablement of ai, including many that will help us address some of the supply chain challenges, some of the continued optimization of the use of energy, some of the activation of the value chains that connect all the pieces of land, energy, water to bring these data centers to life. so ai is not just part of the. source of demand for infrastructure, but it's also part of the solution to help us address some of the challenges ahead. >> charlie, very quick question. we got to let you go. but deep seek, did that change the size of data centers and how people see their needs when it comes to data centers? >> no, i. >> mean, this is built into the point of view from the beginning. we all know that the innovation in artificial. intelligence and processing

capacity and how these data centers are built and managed, including all the expertise that we bring from an. infrastructure perspective, these things will change. you know, at the same time, there is a critical need today. and, you know, what we do is going to progress. that story in a significant way. >> all right. thank you very much for joining us from sierra week. great to see you. have a great day. thank you very much. >> great to see you. >> thank you. coming up here on cnbc brian sullivan will have much more from sierra week today and tomorrow live from houston including energy secretary chris wright. don't want to miss that interview. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, tech ceos are heading for the white house today. the message they will deliver to president trump around hot button issues like tariffs and ai. we're going to tariffs and ai. we're going to be right back after this ♪ empower ♪ i got her a little something. a little something, dad? hold up. walt rolled his 401k accounts into an empower ira, and it's grown nicely. i'm for team splurge. (♪♪) thanks, grandpa! get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower.

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i had over $25,000 in sales. small businesses thrive on tiktok. tiktok brings in so much foot traffic. i need tiktok to keep growing. expects to sign a deal with the u.s. after its trade ministers met with u.s. officials after his u.s. trade ministers meet with u.s. officials later this week, according to reuters. the move comes after weeks of conciliatory messages vietnam has sent to washington in an attempt to avoid tariffs. president trump will meet with several tech ceos at the white house later today and a number of administration policies, including the president's tariffs, will be top of mind for those executives. our seema mody joins us now with much more on this story. seema. good morning. >> good morning frank. >> several technology. >> ceos, we're. >> told, including ibm's. >> arvind krishna hp's enrique. >> flores, are planning. >> to meet. >> at. >> the. >> white house today, according

to sources familiar. >> altimeter capital brad. >> gerstner also expected. >> to be in. >> attendance. >> as well as executives. >> from intel. >> now top of the agenda will be. tariffs keeping. >> artificial intelligence. >> open sourced and those export controls. >> that are. >> expected to limit the chipmakers. ability to. >> sell to. >> customers in countries like. >> china. >> as companies sort. >> of brace for higher tariffs, a lot of tech giants. >> are already changing up their supply chain. take hp. >> for example, recently saying that it expects more than 90%. >> of its products sold. >> in north. >> america to be built outside. >> of china. >> by the end. >> of this year. >> so this high stakes. >> meeting at the white house follows. >> of course, last week's ugly. sell off. >> in which the nasdaq lost over 3%. stocks in the broader artificial intelligence ecosystem, including the chip makers. struggled as well. on concerns around the. >> chips act and. >> what changes. >> could be coming. >> frank, after president. >> trump called. >> it. >> quote, a waste of money. >> all right. seema mody, great reporting as always. seema. great to see you as always. top tech ceos meeting with the

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look at it and i like it. i'm so happy with it. >> the day's top stories driving wall street brian sullivan joins kelly evans power lunch, weekdays two eastern, cnbc. experience the power of cnbc pro. track your portfolio from every angle on one optimized platform. never miss a moment with exclusive access to market moving interviews and stock picks. all new investing tools securely linked to your brokerage accounts, plus cnbc global market news and analysis tailored to your holdings. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro. go to cnbc.com. slash get pro now. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. taking a look at futures off of their lows of earlier this morning. right now

looks like the dow would open about 330 points lower but down about three quarters of 1%. the s&p also pulling back down about three quarters of 1%. the nasdaq still the hardest hit, down just about 1%. let's now bring in simeon hyman, proshares global investment strategist. simeon, good morning. great to have you here. >> thanks for having me. >> first off, let's start off with your word of the day. as we see futures deep in the red. word of. >> the. >> day is. >> dividend growth. >> and i know i. >> hyphenated, but i did that for a specific. reason because i think too many people. >> in this environment. >> are going. >> for the deep value. high yielding. >> stocks here we're talking about. >> dividend growth. >> companies that consistently. grow their dividends. >> all right let's be instructive. so let's get to your pick of the day because i'm assuming it's following the same theme. >> it is a. >> ticker n o b l. that's the proshares s&p 500 dividend aristocrat etf. >> and look. >> this this year so far. >> anything that's been light mag seven has been outperforming. >> but even strategies. like equal weight. >> or the s&p. >> 500 value. >> stocks have. >> started to crack. but these consistent dividend growers are

actually. up 3%. while the. >> s&p is down five. >> and. >> up 5%. >> so far this year. >> because while. their prices have. >> lagged the. >> mag seven. >> their fundamentals. >> have not. >> yeah i'm looking at the char. the nobl up. to your point, about three and a third percent, while the s&p is down about 4% so far, at least since the inauguration. actually, that seems to have been a kind of a shift in sentiment. so i do want to ask you, it seems like people are piling into bonds. and also these dividend paying stocks and etfs due to uncertainty and looking for income to come in. what happens if the sentiment shifts back to a pro growth idea that people think that the ai trade will work again? how does this etf perform? and are the dividends enough to kind of provide enough income that the price action doesn't matter? well, the price action does matter. but what's interesting about these dividend growth stocks. >> is they're. >> not. >> just about sector rotation. >> as an. >> example. >> coca-cola clearly. >> a. >> dividend aristocrat. up 14% so far this year. >> but guess what else. >> is up 20% ibm. >> so this is a balanced. portfolio of consistent growth.

>> and it's. >> the middle of the stylebox. which means that. >> even if. >> we are. >> surprised to. >> the upside that a lot of this uncertainty. >> clears up, that. >> doesn't mean you'll be left behind. >> in the dust. >> all right. what about bonds? as people are looking for income, what's your view on bonds, especially short term treasuries and things like tips? >> i think right now. >> we've had the bond rally that can go about as far as it's. >> gone absent. >> a recession. >> so that does. >> mean that. particularly if there are some tariffs. >> there is a risk. >> of a sell off on the long end of the curve. >> so i think you got to have a little. >> bit of a barbell right now. >> you have to have short. stuff where you need that. income now and where you need stability. but you still need some long. >> duration. >> in case. >> we do have a. >> recession. >> because if we have. >> a. >> recession. >> the long end could go to. 3% and you'll. >> at least make 5 or. >> 10% on those. >> long duration papers. you know, recession at the top of the mind of so many investors and people in the market right now. simeon hyman, your pick for us today, the nobel etf is the dividend aristocrat etf actually outperforming the s&p year to date. thank you very much. it's good to see you. thank you. all

right one more quick check of futures before we let you go. we've been mentioning futures in the red but actually off their lows of earlier this morning. taking a look right now looks like the dow would open up about 350 points lower. the nasdaq the hardest hit. still down about 1% right now. the s&p pulling back from its lows. still down about three quarters of 1%. that's going to do it for us here on worldwide exchange. squawk box starts right now. >> good morning. futures in the. >> red again after a brief respite on friday based on. >> jay powell's comments. but we're. >> beginning a new week. >> with the s&p coming off its worst. >> week since not too far back. >> since september, though. >> tariffs in. the economy. >> are in focus as usual, president. >> trump acknowledging. >> that there could. >> be some pain ahead, but. >> his commerce. >> secretary. secretary categorically. >> ruling out a recession. >> this year. like how? >> like howard. >> would know. >> and house. gop leaders unveiling details of a

government funding bill. >> but time is growing short. >> d.c. turns out the lights at the end of. this week if congress can't make a deal. >> it's monday, march. >> 10th. >> 2025. >> and squawk box begins right now. >> he voted. >> yeah. >> good morning everybody. welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. >> we're here. >> a little bleary eyed because. >> really it's. >> 5 a.m. on the east coast. >> good debate to. >> be had. >> quite gotten. >> whether we. like earlier. >> whether we like. >> the daylight. >> saving. >> daylight savings. >> daylight savings. >> i thought. >> you. >> were going. >> to talk. >> about whether we like. >> the near term pain long term. >> that's what it is. it's the near. that's what you have. >> to. >> decide for them. >> but i'm. >> talking. >> about for. >> the moment.