>> but time is growing short. >> d.c. turns out the lights at the end of. this week if congress can't make a deal. >> it's monday, march. >> 10th. >> 2025. >> and squawk box begins right now. >> he voted. >> yeah. >> good morning everybody. welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. >> we're here. >> a little bleary eyed because. >> really it's. >> 5 a.m. on the east coast. >> good debate to. >> be had. >> quite gotten. >> whether we. like earlier. >> whether we like. >> the daylight. >> saving. >> daylight savings. >> daylight savings. >> i thought. >> you. >> were going. >> to talk. >> about whether we like. >> the near term pain long term. >> that's what it is. it's the near. that's what you have. >> to. >> decide for them. >> but i'm. >> talking. >> about for. >> the moment.

>> i'm talking about. >> for tariffs. >> in. >> the market. >> and i'm talking about. >> i'm talking about the. >> near term pain of. >> daylight savings. >> trump says i. >> saw someone say he's. >> playing volcker and he's. >> i. >> thought the. >> same thing. >> i didn't hear somebody say that, but i thought. >> the same thing. this feels very much like what paul volcker. >> from. >> 2.0 is. >> nothing like trump. >> no. >> 1.00. >> no, because he's. >> he's really kind of digging into. >> these tariffs, talking about the revenue that. >> they expect. >> to see. >> i think. >> there's. >> a trump put. >> not too much. >> lower let's. >> say s&p down by about 6%. >> from the high. >> that's before today i think. >> katie stockton's going to. >> be on. >> in a second. so we'll and i was not. disparaging howard lutnick. >> i don't think that's. >> what he's got to say. >> when i said how would. >> you know? there's nobody knows. >> he said it pretty emphatically, emphatically, i know. right. it was. >> that was the like, wow. >> you should say that. >> but it's the sound. >> company cut. >> company, man. >> you say that. but but nobody knows. >> yeah. >> and if. >> well. >> and president trump himself was much more circumspect about it all saying we don't know. >> we don't know. >> and nobody's going to rule some rule out.

>> we've talked. >> about the atlanta fed. >> they get. >> these crazy numbers right. >> but they're. >> already that'd be one quarter already under our belt. you only need two if it. but i don't think they're going. >> to be the classic definition. >> but i can't categorically tell you that the. atlanta fed is wrong. no. >> who's this? >> who is reading? >> i am. >> let's take a look at the us equity futures at this hour. joe mentioned that yeah the 6%. down was before you add in the declines that you see in the futures market this morning. dow futures off by about 335 points. the s&p futures are down by close to 55. the nasdaq down by over 210. and then if you look at treasury yields they're actually continuing to tick lower. the ten year at 425 the two year is at 395. so maybe concerns there around the edges once again about what this means for the future of growth in the economy here. bitcoin tumbling over the weekend after trading above $90,000 on friday. some of the crypto world were left disappointed after the trump administration did not signal more active support during the

white house's first crypto summit on friday. right now, you see bitcoin at $82,000 and change 82,400. >> yeah. >> nice top. if once. >> the government. >> decides they're interested. >> buy the. >> rumor, sell. >> symbolically, it would be. >> a good. >> meantime, going. >> back to the topic, we. >> just started. >> with. >> president trump dismissing some of the business and market. >> concerns surrounding early. >> moves by his administration. >> in a fox. >> news interview that. >> was taped last. >> week that aired the. >> past weekend. >> trump said broad, quote. >> reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on april 2nd. he said his goal was to build a strong u.s. economy. and to that end, he said, quote. you can't really watch the stock market since america has a. >> short term. >> quarter by quarter focus. whereas he said china has a 100 year perspective. asked if he was expecting a recession this year, trump responded by saying there will be a period of, quote. transition for the economy. commerce secretary howard lutnick was more forceful on nbc's meet the press about it. >> should americans brace for.

>> a. >> recession? >> absolutely not. anybody who bets against donald trump. it's like the same people who thought donald trump wasn't a. >> winner a year ago. >> donald trump is a winner. he's going to win for the american people. that's just the way it's going to be. there's going to be no recession in america. so that. >> lutnick acknowledged the tariffs. could make some. >> foreign made products. >> more expensive. >> but he. maintained that. >> american products will be cheaper. did not really address, though the other issue, which. >> is american. >> companies investing frankly, in america, which is to say that. even though these. >> tariffs are here and you could argue that they are meant to or to try to get people to invest, a lot of. >> people are sitting on their hands waiting. >> to. >> try to. >> just. >> figure out. >> what's exactly happening. and that's, i. >> think, going to. >> be part of the. story we are going to hear if and when we get to a. >> larger conversation. >> about where the. >> couple of big. >> headlines that he's gotten, which. we're welcome, you know, taiwan. >> semi and a couple other. yeah, sure. >> but but most companies are

not investing right now and are not. >> putting money. >> to work. >> they're not investing. they're not. putting capital work in anything because. >> because they don't know. >> what's. >> about to happen. >> exactly. >> well, i. >> feel like the weird thing is, is in six weeks, we've gone from or six and a half weeks gone from animal spirits to a wait and see attitude. that was a really quick turnabout, and it's hard to say that that's could be blamed for anything more than like the rapid changes and fluctuations. >> just uncertainty. >> is the enemy of. >> is the enemy. >> of investment, just what it is. >> and then the. >> journal assigned. >> a story to someone. go back. >> and. >> look at how. >> long tariffs were. on and. see how you know if it's transitory. >> we think, hey, you put them on, you take them. >> off. >> it goes back. >> to normal. and the. journals take is that it. >> can the effects. >> of. >> the tariffs can often far outlive the how long the tariffs are. >> on for years. >> i believe that you do. yeah. i don't know. well that's definitely the concerning. side to. worry about i guess a number of but they haven't quite gone

on yet and. >> as well that's the point. they haven't gone. >> on. >> yet and, and. >> they're keeping people to the sidelines. >> i mean that's, that's. >> the craziest part about this. >> anecdotally, i. >> think it's more than anecdotally at this point. >> we'll get the numbers eventually. i mean, the jobs. >> numbers were. >> look very. >> similar to question. >> do you believe it or are these backwards numbers. is this happening so fast. you know, that's. >> the if the. >> market is a leading indicator. >> the number. >> if you look at the treasury market, maybe as an example of the you know, well. the yields are. >> dropping that i. >> that i'm looking. >> at and i've talked about it now a couple times last week. >> what the animal spirits. >> i still think that mergers and acquisitions is the ultimate. barometer of confidence in the board room about doing things. and so if january is means anything to you, those numbers were down 30%. it was as if we had gone back to 2015. the january numbers were literally 2015 numbers in 2025, ten years later. okay. so let's see what

happens in february. let's see what happens in march. i don't want to oversell the january thing. maybe it's a blip, but that actually is it. sometimes that's a backward indicator, but sometimes it's a leading indicator. >> and that would indicate some headwinds that ■people see. >> right. >> which must be pretty offsetting. since the. deregulatory you. >> know, lina. >> khan's gone. so that's supposed. >> to be a tailwind. >> right. >> so if you. >> still hesitate. >> yeah. i mean, if the tailwind is totally. >> muted by the. >> headwinds. >> not not. >> just muted but. actually down maybe. right. that's only january. >> and let's. >> see what. >> let's see what february numbers are like. >> right. well february only. >> had 28. >> days i think this year. >> this year number of. >> tech ceos. expected to head. >> to the white. >> house today for talks. who's going to be there. >> include the heads of ibm. hp and intel. >> and sources say. agenda items will include making sure ai. remains open source. also, some

potential. tariff exemptions, as well as efforts. >> to limit the. >> effects of. >> export controls on. >> chips computer chips. current tariffs have taken aim at pc hardware. and other components. >> used to manufacture computer electronics. >> and china's consumer inflation, turning negative for the first time in more than a year, the country's national cpi declining by 0.7% last month. that reverses a gain in january, and it comes in worse than an expected 0.5% decline. that data was weighed down in a decline by a decline in food, tobacco and alcohol prices. chinese bond prices fell yesterday, pushing yields to their highest levels this year. last week, china said its gdp target for 2025 at around 5% and plans laid out plans to stabilize economic growth by propping up domestic demand. and maybe that's a reminder for all the complaints and concerns about the economy here, how it still is a much better economy than just about

any other place in the world. all right. the countdown to the shutdown is back on. government funding runs out at the end of the week. house republicans out with details of a spending bill over the weekend. emily wilkins joins us right now with the latest on that. hi, emily. >> hey, becky. well, yeah. >> the. >> government is. >> going to. run out. >> of funding at the end. >> of this. >> week. >> but trump. >> and. >> gop leaders have endorsed. >> a. >> plan that. >> would largely. >> continue current. funding from now until the end of september, the. >> end of the congressional fiscal year. >> now. >> usually when we're. >> talking about. >> a shutdown, we're. >> talking about. >> the challenges about getting it. >> through the house. >> but this time, the drama could. >> wind up. >> being in the senate. remember. >> republicans are going. >> to need. >> a handful. >> of democrats. >> to join them to. >> get this passed. >> and while democrats have said that they don't want a. >> government shutdown. >> this is one of the only points of. >> leverage that democrats. >> are going to have this year, and they want to use it to curb some of the drastic cuts that trump and elon. musk have been making. >> democratic senator elissa.

slotkin told. >> meet the press over. >> the weekend. >> that congress. >> is. responsible for. >> setting the. >> budget, and the president. >> needs to. follow it. >> until i see some assurances. >> that whatever we pass next week is going to ensure. >> that the money is spent. >> the way congress. >> intends it, i'm. >> going to. >> i'm. >> going to withhold my. >> vote. >> until i see that. >> the bill does provide a boost. in funding for the military by 6 billion, and gives. >> another boost to funding for. immigration and customs enforcement. >> by 485 million. >> now, house. republican staffers. >> say the bill. >> does make. other cuts. that includes. >> earmarks that. >> lawmakers usually. >> expect and will ultimately spend. >> slightly less. >> than current. >> funding levels. >> guys. >> what are the odds. that house speaker mike johnson can pass this legislation? i mean, it's a very tight margin. we haven't seen that happen in the past. >> so. >> becky, i.

>> think we might be having. >> a current technical difficulty. >> i'm not 100%. >> sure what you just. >> asked, but but i can. >> at least quickly highlight that. the one thing to watch, because it's. >> very much going. >> to be in play at. >> the. >> start of this week. is the house. you know, at this point, we are seeing a lot. >> of republicans come. >> on. >> board and say. >> hey. >> we do. >> think that we can vote. >> for this stopgap. we know it will give trump. >> more chances for doge to continue doing their thing. but on the other hand, you did at least see one republican, thomas massie. >> come out. >> last. >> night and say he would be unable to support this bill. and that means, again, those tight margins are at play. if even. >> one more member. >> decides to. >> vote against. >> it, it could mean trouble. >> for republicans. >> emily. thank you. emily wilkins. >> coming up, we are going to get more into the markets this morning, of course, including this morning's sell off. we'll talk about it. technician katie stockton is going to join us to talk about the chart levels. she's watching. she's always prescient and quite helpful about understanding the true sentiment of where things are right now. take a look, though, right now at the biggest

decliners in the s&p 500 at this. very early hour. an hour earlier than it's really supposed. >> to even be. >> but it. >> really is. yeah. >> it's 611. >> it feels like 511. you can't plan. >> for that. >> stay tuned. you're watching squawk. and this is cnbc. >> this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit baird sponsored by baird. visit baird difference.com. louis! cut! more mud! action! louis, louis! cut mud on her face! louis! okay everybody, that's lunch! (♪♪) (♪♪)

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>> back in the red. significantly this. >> morning, we had. >> a brief. run up. >> on friday. we've seen that. >> repeated a few times, but the trend is definitely has been lower. maybe not now. the s&p. >> had its worst week since early september. joining us now to talk about what she's watching is technician katie stockton, founder. >> and managing partner at fairlead strategies does that. good morning. it's good to see. good morning. >> there's a number in what you. told our people for the. >> s&p that if that didn't hold. by friday, it would be. >> significant with that indication. and we don't know. >> today. >> if. it's if it's going to stay there. >> but what that shows what it. >> did on friday. we should be showing the futures for what it says. >> today on the s&p. so look at the futures. >> is that below that. >> does it have. >> the total. >> there or. >> does. >> that 61 points. >> put us. >> below the number. >> what was your does. >> yeah. and in fact we actually closed below. >> my number. >> which. >> was 57. >> to. >> 83. >> last friday. >> the reason. >> we care about this.

>> week's trading. >> is. that that would. >> confirm the breakdown. assuming we stay. >> down below that. level this week. the short term indicators are. >> still primed for a rebound. >> so it's possible. >> we avoid that confirmation. >> but i think the fact of the matter is that we have. >> very weak momentum. it's evident. >> behind the market. >> and if you take. >> a step. >> back and look at the major indices. >> they look a little. >> bit like a double. >> top formation. >> kind of the shape. >> of an. >> m on the chart. >> and that's. >> not a good setup. >> you said that. >> the near term there's counter-trend signals that could indicate a bounce that would be short lived. >> that's right. so several days. >> not. several weeks. so our messaging has been great to. >> wait to get hedged or to reduce exposure. there's a lot of stocks. >> that have broken. >> support levels. >> as you can. >> imagine with. >> this downdraft. and because. >> these look like the double top formations, it probably. will affect. >> q2 as well as what we've. >> already seen. >> so 60. >> 70% of the. >> time in. >> any given year you. >> have a 10% correction.

>> i think in the s&p. right. and we're not. >> quite there yet. >> is this. >> going to be it? >> i think. >> we'll probably see. >> a little. >> bit lower than that. >> based on where. >> secondary but. lower than 10%. >> worse than 10%. >> we're already. >> several percent off the highs. right. so the next support for me is. >> around 53. >> 6553, 50. what 53. we have a 53. >> handle on that. >> that's another. >> and so it's about. >> 6% below. >> and it's another. >> and it doesn't. >> mean it's. >> 8 or 9% from here. >> isn't it. >> it's not. >> a magnet necessarily. support doesn't. >> act. >> that way. but it does. >> frame potential downside risk. what we'd like. >> to see is. >> an oversold. reading in our. weekly gauges, and we don't have. >> that yet. >> that could happen. >> and get us sort of. >> a nice relief. rally in between here and there. >> but it does frame. >> downside risk. >> i think. >> that the nasdaq. >> would be in. >> bear market territory if the s&p. i can't imagine it wouldn't be. >> it could be. >> so you're saying.

>> the. >> 20% plus downdraft. >> it's certainly. >> possible it's. >> higher beta. >> and the. >> technology sector has. lost its leadership. >> stronghold and also. >> the mega-caps. >> and that's a big. difference between. >> this year. >> and the last. >> two years. >> we just don't. >> have that mega-cap leadership. >> and you wrote. this stuff. >> before the. >> clocks were turned. >> i mean. this is. >> you're not just in a bad. >> mood, like you're not just tired and andrew is exhausted. >> well. >> yeah, i am a little tired. >> this has. >> this has nothing to do with monday or daylight savings. >> no. >> no, it's just. >> not not a bad mood. and listen, i mean, this is. >> actually normal. >> price action for the markets. we've just gotten so. accustomed to. >> the. >> market that's. >> barely interrupted. on the. >> downside for. >> two years. so it feels. >> really unsettling. >> there's plenty of reasons. >> you could. >> assign for. >> the downdraft, but the fact of the. >> matter. >> it's a. >> very healthy. >> longer term development. >> ultimately. >> to get. >> this kind of. >> corrective action. the secular. >> bull trend. is very. >> much intact. >> and we just think this is

going to be more of. >> a. >> digestion year, more sideways. >> than it is lower. >> yeah. >> good way. >> to. >> put it. >> so we think that. >> it will. >> ultimately prove healthy. >> okay. i know. >> you don't look at fundamentals. for the most part you're looking at these technical measures. but when you take what president trump is now saying about the idea that you're going to live through some pain as we go through a transition, he thinks it's temporary. what do you see just in terms of if you could try and put that into what you see from the technical? >> well, right. it would. >> actually be very. >> much in. >> following with. >> what we're. >> thinking. >> where we have this. initial downdraft. and it. >> feels very unsettling. >> it's what we already have, in fact. and. >> now i think we're going to start to see the international equity markets participate. >> on the downside, to some degree. we've had. >> such huge gains. >> outside of the us. >> right? >> so it's been very. >> us specific. >> you think oil is. >> going to bounce? >> i do, and that's a little. >> bit of a contrarian. >> yeah. and that's been sort of a. >> confirmation of a slowing economy. i think so far. so does

it bounce to 75 or to what. >> i think into the low 70s per barrel for wti is very viable based on our indicators there. >> we have a long. term neutral triangle formation. the triangles represent. >> sort of a. >> lessening in the volatility. >> but indeed it. >> has been quite volatile. >> short term. >> the confidence. >> you have about charts. is it the same. across all asset classes. or do you say to yourself the charts seem to hold up better on equities. oil is more complicated. bitcoin is something else. or are they all just the same? >> well, i would actually argue that anything. that has like the deepest. >> most global liquidity will lend. itself best. >> to the charts, right. or the indicators. >> and the. levels will be more refined perhaps. >> but it is. >> applicable across asset classes. >> the only place it. really doesn't add. >> value perhaps. >> would be maybe a small cap biotech stock that has. >> a binary situation. >> that's where. >> or where. >> there's no liquidity.

>> but for like. especially global. >> effects. >> and commodities and. >> really on everything. >> this is all very negative. >> it is you know, for. >> well beyond. >> this. >> is a. >> really 520 in the morning. >> this is a. >> really tough. >> pill to. >> swallow right now. >> i mean. >> i. >> knew things were bad, but now. >> it's getting worse. try to. >> you know. >> think past this consolidation to the secular. >> bull trend and. >> realize that this is. >> when's. that part necessary? >> i think probably closer to q4. >> i'm not going to do a. >> full boomer report. >> but once again, jeopardy! 12th century mathematician. >> fibonacci, fibonacci. so we use fibonacci. >> these are. >> key levels i. >> don't i honestly. >> was born in 11. >> so that's i. >> wish i knew why. >> it mattered. >> but frankly. i do think that. >> levels matter a whole lot. >> because i've. >> been watching. >> them forever. so that. range of. >> support that. i gave. >> you is partly based on the fibonacci retracement levels. it's a 38.2% retracement. >> of the. >> last bull cycle move.

>> he's born. >> in pisa. i think he designed that. >> tower, and i'm not really sure the. is that good. >> yeah. >> thank you architect. >> thank you. nice to see you. >> nice to see you. >> when we come back, the impact of president trump's tariffs on small businesses. we've spoken a lot about the potential effect on corporate giants. but what about smaller players? after a break, we will speak with two entrepreneurs trying to navigate u.s. trade policy from their mezcal distillery in mexico. stay tuned. you're watching squawk box and this is cnbc. >> a us bank. when we say we're. >> in. >> it. with you, we mean it. not just. >> for. the good stuff. >> the grand openings. and the. >> celebrations. >> but for all the hard work it took to get there. we are in for all of it. it's tough for sure, but less tough when you have the right people by your side, like kayla from kansas. city and thousands of other bankers around. >> the country.

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it's going to matter to our next guest. but if they go into effect mexican made spirits are one category that could see higher prices including tequila and mezcal. joining us right now are the co-founders of the mexican made beverage company mezcal abe and aaron lychee. aaron is also, of course, one of the cast members of bravo tv's real housewives of new york, so we. >> are thrilled. >> to have them here. mezcal was launched in 2023, served at restaurants all around new york city. good morning to both. >> good morning. >> thank you for waking up early. >> yes. >> you haven't. had any mezcal yet? >> not yet. not i. >> can't have. >> any right this moment. but it's coming. >> no. >> i'm very pregnant. >> i know, but. like your style. in a couple of months. >> in a. >> couple of months, a couple of weeks. i'll have it at the hospital. >> as soon. >> as i'm ready. >> to go. >> i'm like. >> i. >> can't wait. >> so. >> well. >> let's just talk about the tariff piece before we get into all. >> the other stuff. >> how is it impacting things or what are you guys even thinking about in this context? >> so for us, we've. been

expecting this for months. so we took a lot of proactive measures. monitoring the peso. versus the dollar. >> and so. >> some things we've done are enter into forward. purchasing contracts, where we're able to. >> lock in. >> a really favorable. >> rate on. >> the. >> effects exposure so that. >> it mitigates our margin. >> by about a third. >> and as a small. >> independent brand, we're able to take advantage of federal excise. federal excise tax relief, which we're. working with, our importer. and our whole thesis is hopefully this is short lived, if at all. i mean, it's it. should be exempted. >> under usmca. it can only be made in mexico. >> where exactly in mexico is it made. >> in oaxaca. >> okay. and then how many of your friends who are in this business that you know, have either done what you've you've done or are either like hoarding? are you are you bringing a lot of stuff here now trying to get all the supplies here? >> well, we thought. >> about it. >> but abe actually said no. >> i was like. >> let's get all. >> i wanted to hoard all of. >> the. >> product and bring. >> it in, but it looked like it was going to actually cost us more money.

>> yeah, warehousing is. >> expensive in. >> new york. so just to stuff the channels and bring product and made no sense. >> for us. >> is that something you think people are doing though? are you hearing about that, like when you talk to the folks who are manufacturing this for you, do they manufacture for other people too? yes they do. and what do they say? i think. >> so there are some brands. >> i think, more in. >> the. >> tequila space as opposed to those that are hoarding. but, you know, when you look at these large corporate conglomerates, they they're in a more precarious position. >> they're not. >> as nimble where we're a smaller brand and we could. >> absorb. >> if at. >> all, a short. >> term margin hit while keeping our prices steady. we have no, we're not increasing our pricing. >> so what do you. >> charge right now? >> so just under 50. >> just under. >> 50. at retail. >> at retail. and if the tariffs go into effect do you think you can maintain 50 or. >> do you. >> think that you go up to 55. i mean how does it work. what's the thought process. >> we want to. >> maintain our price point at retail under 50. >> that's very important. >> to be honest. it might give us a competitive edge if we if our competitors are increasing. >> their price. so it just means that it hurts your margin. is it how many employees do you guys

have at this point? is it basically just your profit that you're okay so now and it just means that it's going to cut how much you can make on it until things come through. >> yes. >> but we've also. >> figured out creative. >> solutions to mitigate. >> the cost. increase that it you know, that it would affect how it would affect us. like what? yeah. >> well. >> we've like abe said. >> we've. >> decided to. forward purchase relief. there's also negotiations. and this i think is across the board with distribution partners. and with suppliers. >> well, so. >> how is purchased all of our dry. >> goods in advance? >> yeah. well, the other thing i was going to say is this business is growing like a weed. i mean, yeah, doubled in the past year. >> yeah. >> so when you thought about sort of how quickly you can continue to grow, has that changed the trajectory in terms of even just conversations with other distribution partners or whatever you think the grand plan is? at the end of the day? >> honestly, no. we're incredibly bullish on mezcal. tequila and mezcal are about to overtake vodka as. >> the number. >> one spirit. >> in the country. and tequila. >> and mezcal is the only spirit that's up as far as revenues. so

for us, we think agave is going to remain number. >> one in. >> terms of your ability, though, to maintain the price, i'm assuming i mean the margin, dare i say on spirits is pretty incredible. so there's a lot of wiggle room. whereas i think, i think. a lot of businesses that actually have a very, you know, very tiny little margin, it's a whole different game. >> yes. >> and i think when. >> you're talking about large corporations. >> at. >> scale, those. thin shavings. >> of margin have. >> a. >> much more drastic. >> impact on their. >> business and their bottom line. >> no, i was thinking about something else. >> i was thinking. >> wow, you. >> guys are the cool kids, you know? >> bravo, bravo. >> gets to stay with nbc. >> oh, whoa. >> wow. >> they want you. they. that's what i was saying. >> that's where you're going. that's exactly. >> what i was saying. >> you got to get them. >> some mezcal. >> well, you guys. >> are cool. >> oh. >> we're sending. >> you mezcal. >> we're. >> i'm sending you. >> spinco is going to be amazing. >> it is. >> and actually. >> mezcal would.

>> be good for. >> morning news because. >> you don't have as. much of a hangover because it's. fully pure and additive. >> free. can i. >> say why mezcal for you? yeah. like what? how did. >> this happen? >> honestly. >> did you like the. >> smokiness of. >> it all? >> ours is not very smoky. okay. that was our big shift and our big departure from the traditional mezcal. >> and i. >> feel like that's why a lot of women particularly were. boxed out of mezcal, because it was so heavily smoky. but we have. >> what is that smoky? what is that? >> it's the way that they. >> they actually. >> it's like a. >> traditional way. >> with that wood underneath. they smoke. >> it. >> and they have to do it that way legally. by mexican. what do you. >> call it. >> for. >> your bottle design? >> she did the. >> bottle, i designed it. >> you did? >> yeah. >> did you go bottle. we're going to run out of time. just go to the very beginning though. like what was the how did this all start? what was the inspiration? >> we were in tulum. >> we were in. yeah. >> at a rave. >> at. >> a rave years. ago drinking mezcal on the beach. >> and we. >> were like. holy. >> and then. >> honestly. >> they. >> do other things at a rave, but not drinking.

>> no, we were we were. >> just drinking. >> and we woke up. we woke up in the morning. >> and i was like, how am. >> i not. >> in front of you as you said that? just so you. >> know. >> hallucinogenics are cool. you don't have to worry at this point. >> they're very in right now. >> elon musk. >> but honestly, i, i, i remember waking up. >> and saying, how. >> am i not wrecked like i wanted? i went and took a yoga class. yeah. and i'm like, how is this happening? and our house manager at the time was explaining to us that mezcal is the pure spirit, way more pure than tequila. tequila can have 51. it only has to be, by mexican law, 51% pure agave, while the rest can be additive heavy. no one knows this because they don't have to say it on their bottles. >> mezcal. >> by mexican law must be 100% pure agave. so i was like, why am i drinking a worse version of basically tequila? it's still an agave spirit, right? so i started only drinking mezcal and then as becoming a mom, having kids. i mean, i'm about to have my fourth child. i can't afford to be hungover. so for and i still like to have a drink and i like to go out with my girlfriend. >> where does this all go with this brand? >> where does this. >> all mean? like.

>> you obviously have to stay in the mezcal space, given the name. >> yes, yes. >> so it's not like you can go in. >> and we don't want to go into any other space. we like the mezcal space. >> yeah. >> mezcal. >> there's the thesis at least is there's so much. >> upward room and. >> so. much market share, which is why we love when we have competitors. we think it's great. other brands getting the. >> word out. >> there about the category is beneficial to all of us. so we love it. >> well, we're the real housewives of squawk, i think is. >> what they say. >> so thank you aaron. >> appreciate it. thank you. just us girls. >> all right. coming up. >> elon musk news. we're going to. >> dig into. >> his relationship with secretary of state marco rubio. rubio i. didn't know they had a relationship. and a new. >> report more. >> yeah that yeah. >> right. >> that says chinese investors pouring money into musk's companies. that's next. as we head to break, check out the shares of beam. not jim beam. >> not. >> a competitor. beam therapeutics. the company announced initial data from its gene editing treatment for rtd. that's a rare disease that causes lungs and liver issues to

not function properly. beam says its treatment worked, representing the first clinical data to show correction of a disease. >> causing genetic mutation. >> the company also announcing. >> a. >> new share offering, squawk box. be right back. >> when cyber threats target the world's data. seconds matter. that's why the world's most trusted brands depend on reliaquest gray matter to contain threats in seconds. it's the only technology independent, ai driven platform built by security operators. for security operators. reliaquest makes security possible. >> consumer cellular is lowering the. >> price for those 50. >> and up. get two. >> unlimited lines. >> for $30 each. >> that's just $60 a month. so switch to the carrier ranked number one in network coverage

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>> buff lip. i'm a model. >> three. two. >> one. >> all right, welcome back everybody. good morning. this is squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. if you take a look at the futures right now, you will see that there is some pretty significant pressure even after the major declines we saw for all of the averages last week. at this point, the dow futures are down by close to 400 points, a decline of 389. s&p futures down by about 62. the nasdaq futures indicated off more than 240 points. tesla shares this morning, if you want to check it out, are off by about another 3% for the one year, still up by 45%. but for the year to date, it has been a pretty difficult ride. with today's move, that stock has given up almost all of its post-election gains. it's been down for seven straight weeks. it's the worst run since the company went public 15 years ago. tesla shares fell about 10% last week, and they are down 43%

from their high in mid-december. >> meantime, the financial times now reporting that wealthy chinese investors are funneling tens of millions of dollars into private companies controlled by elon musk. the ft says this includes x.ai, neuralink and spacex. the investors are using so-called special purpose vehicles to invest in the companies without having to disclose their stakes. now, the use of those investment vehicles is commonplace. i don't want to say there's anything crazy about it, and there's nothing illegal about the arrangements, but it does raise some questions. and that's what the article is doing about the potential for what they say is undue influence and conflicts of interest. with musk's role in advising president trump. >> and speaking of president. >> trump denying reports of a rift in his administration between elon. >> musk and secretary. >> of state marco rubio, details have emerged about a tense cabinet meeting last thursday. >> we talked. >> about. this actually last week. >> we talked about it. >> on friday, during which rubio and. transportation secretary sean. duffy criticized musk for

firing their employees. over the weekend, the president posted. >> a message to. >> his social media network that elon and marco have a great relationship. any statement other than that, it's fake news. djt musk chimed in on x, saying, we just had dinner together. good conversation. but it was. after the president had had somewhat. i guess he made it more clear who's in charge of firing. and it was it was an odd edict that. >> came. >> out last week that said that the department. heads are solely responsible, which supposedly resulted from a conversation where elon musk said to marco rubio. >> you haven't. fired anyone in the states. >> you only fired one. >> person. >> and that was the doge person looking into, and it supposedly got contentious. >> so yeah, this. was this was already out. >> we had already discussed this. >> yeah. >> it doesn't mean. >> it's not newsworthy though. >> i guess. >> anytime you get more details on things. >> okay. coming up, i fear if i

say this they're all going to go off across the country. so just watch your phone, folks. hey siri, what's with all the delays? well, we'll tell you after the break. >> see. >> i knew this would happen, but my iphone knows my voice. i think actually, my voice shouldn't be hitting everybody else's phone because it should be based on your own voice. we'll see. but we're going to bring you details here. she's talking to me now, but we'll bring you details in just a moment. apple pausing a big update to its digital assistant. check out shares of apple right now. because the city removing the stock from its positive catalyst watch list this morning. on the back of that news and a reminder you get the best of squawk in our daily podcast. you can follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime we're coming right back. >> 10,000 by next month, i. >> don't see. >> hey, we won't know unless we try, right? how long have we waited for. >> something like this?

>> we'll have to alert suppliers. >> coordinate shipments. already alerted. >> already coordinated. every supplier. >> sees. >> changes as. >> they happen. >> since when can we. >> just scale up? mid cycle. since we brought in bdo. >> people who know. know b.d.o. >> high point university, the premier life skills university, is ranked the number one best run college in america by the princeton review. employers value hfpa's real world preparation. students love unprecedented access to global leaders. >> on high. >> points. inspiring campus, and parents appreciate hfpa's god, parents appreciate hfpa's god, family, and country values. cidp is no walk in the park. that's true. but i take vyvgart hytrulo. same! it's the first major innovation in cidp treatment in over 30 years. vyvgart hytrulo has been proven to significantly reduce the risk of symptoms getting worse. and my cidp can be treated

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to limit unwanted robocalls and spam emails, and to reduce exposure to data breaches. switch on peace of mind. go incognito and get 55% off today. cnbc live ambitiously. >> so many in this. >> business try to scare you. >> we try to give you the confidence. >> to do it. >> yourself by joining the club. >> it gave me more confidence in my investing decisions. >> there's just a. huge reservoir of information available. you couldn't ask for more support. >> it just is. >> a game changer because you can. >> feel confident through. >> the highs and the lows. the club. creates confident investors no matter what the climate. >> get invested. join the club today. go to cnbc.com. slash join jim. >> well apple delayed its ai updates to the siri digital

assistant for the foreseeable future. steve kovach joins us right now with more on why this happened. >> yeah, this. >> is. >> a big. >> whiff right now. >> so that. >> big ai. >> update that we've been waiting. >> for, that analysts have been waiting for. it's not. coming until what. >> apple says later this year. that likely means 2026. >> and this. >> is really hurting that bull case going into the iphone. >> 16 cycle. >> last fall, that. >> those sales are going to be. >> driven by. >> apple intelligence. >> now, to date. >> there have only been some minor. artificial intelligence features released on the iphone. that means tools to help you with writing those summary notifications you get on your home screen. and then, of course, back in december, the integration with chatgpt and siri. and then. but this was going to be the. >> big one. >> the one that we were. >> all waiting for that. >> apps, you could control them with siri. it would understand you better. it would know what's going on on your screen, kind of dive into your personal data stored on your phone and answer questions. the dream of siri, that big upgrade we've all been waiting for. it's just not going to happen. and in the meantime, it's. >> been kind of a lackluster. >> cycle for the iphone 16. sales were down slightly in q1

year over. >> year, and sales in. >> china were even worse overall. not just the iphone, but overall. china sales. those were down 11%, and ceo tim cook at. the time was telling us part of that was because there was no apple intelligence for those phones where they were, where the sales were a little bit weaker. >> and we're not going to have. >> more clarity on when this big update to siri. >> is going to happen. >> likely until wwdc. that's that big developers conference they hold every year down in cupertino in june. in the meantime, you have all these ai. competitors just stepping on the gas. openai, google, anthropic. we know just about every week they're shipping these new ai advancements constantly. and this delay, by the way, seems. >> to be. >> pushing back some other new hardware products that apple's been working on. bloomberg reporting over the weekend. that smart home device. >> was. >> supposed to be like an ipad. you stick on your wall to control all your home smart. >> home appliances. >> that needed this new. >> siri update, and now it's. delayed as well. >> and by the way, that. bull case for apple. if you. >> think this artificial. >> intelligence thing is going

to move more iphones, that's going to be pushed out. >> into the. >> iphone 17. in the lead up. >> to the commercial. >> injury you were mentioning, citi took it away from its catalyst list. it also citi analysts reducing how many iphones they think are just going to be sold this cycle because of. >> this one change. >> it's really. >> hurting this narrative. >> in the meantime apple intelligence. >> not. >> really impressive. >> you know, trying to figure out what who the winners are going to be in ai. is it going to be the chatgpt. is it going to be mark zuckerberg with the new plans? he has to launch it as an app would eventually be the hardware that takes over. i mean, it's one of those really key important times, and it's hard to see who's going to be come out on top. >> with. >> all. >> of this. >> the way i. >> look at. >> it is a combination of all. >> of it. >> it's a. >> combination of all. by the. >> way i. >> look at it right. >> now, it's the. >> cloud providers. >> you have microsoft. i mean, their business is. growing or. >> accelerating. >> rather that azure. >> growth. >> rate because. >> of. >> i just mean me as. >> a consumer. >> or. >> as you. >> yeah, like as a consumer.

>> chatgpt i. >> mean, they're far and away the most used. >> of all. >> these chatbots. we talk about even microsoft copilot and. >> the anthropic. >> cloud, on. >> and. >> on and on. they just aren't used as much as chatgpt is. and this chatgpt integration with. the iphone, that's kind. >> of an admission. >> from apple saying, we can't even figure this out. we need to stuff this into siri. >> for now. >> and honestly. >> i don't know if. >> you guys have used it. the chatgpt integration isn't as good. >> as better just to. >> open the chatgpt app and use it that way. >> yeah, it's. >> it's a this is a. >> big win. so but what's the fix. because it seems to me that either they're going to have to build something themselves from scratch super quickly, or are they going to have to create a much deeper partnership, either with chatgpt or with claude or something. >> and not just deeper, just deeper, more deeper in the way that. >> we're seeing it. >> right now? because right now, chatgpt is just with siri. we think. >> they're going to do it in china with alibaba. >> but what if, yes, their own llms. so apple intelligence isn't just chatgpt. they wrote their own language models. >> to work on the phone. >> it's clearly. >> not. good enough. >> to handle what they. >> want to do for this, this

supercharged siri. >> they can't. lean on. >> chatgpt for that. so i mean, there's talks that they might have to start over and we might not see this until next year. meantime. everyone's just. >> rapidly moving forward. >> how? okay, here's a question. because i use an iphone. yeah. how much better if it is at all is an android as it relates to ai? >> the google. gemini stuff is pretty good. >> it's pretty good. we don't talk about gemini the most. yeah. and there's pixel. >> phones are really good now. people aren't necessarily aren't going to go. >> out there and buy them. >> but yeah they're they're doing samsung by the way. also doing stuff. and then. >> in china. >> you have. >> huawei also. >> putting these. >> is it a threat. >> to the ecosystem. >> it's definitely a. >> threat to the ecosystem. >> yeah i still want my blue bubble. >> i know. >> you're going to keep. >> it until the. >> doj decides. >> otherwise steve thank you. >> thank you. >> blue sky blue or what is the. >> name of it? >> blue sky. >> wait. oh, oh in terms of this competitor x no. yeah i'm talking about blue bubbles on my text messages. >> i know. did you started bubble? you like blue sky. >> you like. no i'm no, i'm an addict. >> i know. >> you. >> better i know you. you're not you're not right now it's down.

>> is it right? >> it's down. >> yeah. >> what happened? >> i don't. >> know, elon pulled. >> the plug. not enough employees. yeah, i don't know. they got. >> doge coming up. >> they got doge first. >> yeah. >> oh, he works on mine. >> yeah. >> mine's working too. >> yeah. >> mine's working. >> right now. >> oh, no. well. >> i'm not on the phone. i'm looking on the on. >> the. >> on the. i think the app was down here. >> the mobile. >> the government backing off a key demand in google's antitrust case details after the break. you're on blue sky. >> i'm sure. >> oh, yeah. not yet. what's the other one? not true. social. you deleted that. >> this is the. >> emirates premium economy seat. >> economy. >> perhaps they need to call. >> it. something else. >> nothing stands still. not technology. >> not the market, and not. franklin templeton. we've been a firm in motion. >> for over. >> 75 years. always innovating.

today we're a leader in public. >> and private. >> markets. >> digital assets and custom. >> tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build the portfolios of the future. the- [female narrator] around today. the world, 5 billion people lack access to safe surgery. children are suffering from treatable causes.. ..living with conditions many have never seen. for more than 40 years, mercy ships has deployed floating hospitals with volunteer doctors who give their time to provide the free surgeries these children desperately need. - i feel like my reason for being here is driven bylove . i think it is the love that changes the patients first. - [female narrator] join us by calling or going to mercyships.org now. $19 a month will give children and families the hope and healing they never thought possible. and turn lives of pain... into futures full of potential.

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fiduciary financial advisors at smartasset.com. >> the d.o.j. >> is ending. >> its effort to get google to sell its investments in some ai companies, including open ai

competitor anthropic. this was out late friday, as the doj filed an updated proposal for remedies in its google antitrust case, court papers show the department is still looking for google to sell off its chrome internet browser to address what a judge last year called an illegal search monopoly. in a statement, a google spokesperson said the doj sweeping proposals continue to go miles beyond the court's decision and would harm american consumers. the economy, as well as national security. >> when we come back battling deep fakes, as ai grows more powerful. youtube, one of the latest companies to be ensnared. we've got the details on that story and what companies can do about it. that's all coming right after the break. squawk box will be right back. >> executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level by at&t business next level moments. need it all started with a small business idea.

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sun may soon be coming to a dramatic end. and as a result, i predict a different, under-the-radar stock is primed for big potential gains from this moment on. to get its name and ticker 100% free, simply visit the website below. >> overtime is about understanding what. >> just happened. in the markets. >> that day. >> and preparing for tomorrow. >> i'm looking. >> to talk. >> to. all investors. sophisticated investors. >> beginning investors. i'm >> beginning investors. i'm always learn ♪♪ [inner monologue] we're sitting ducks. waiting for them to infiltrate our defenses. millions of tries... and... they're in. uh-oh... this one's in the code.

♪♪ >> cyber report is sponsored by palo alto networks. cybersecurity partner of choice. >> youtube is the latest company to be involved in an ai generated deepfake scam. the company has issued a warning to creators about a phishing scheme that tries to lure the victims these creators into using ai generated video of by you. okay, here's here's how the scam works. they had ai generated video of its ceo, neal mohan, that they put out to these creators in an attempt to try and steal users private data. our next guest has worked with c-suite executives on how to battle against these scams. and joining us right now is theresa

payton. she is a former white house chief information officer. she's now the ceo of cybersecurity and intelligence firm fortalice solutions. and theresa, thank you for being here today. when i read the details on this, this is pretty scary because it's pretty sophisticated. and i think that i recognize phishing scams. i feel like i, you know, we've we've evolved from the nigerian letters to all kinds of ways that they try and trick you with emails or texts or different ways that come in. but this is a real step up, ai generated video from someone you would recognize thinking, okay, i can trust this. what happened when? and here's what everybody needs to listen to. if this can happen to the talented team at youtube, this can happen to any company. it's phishing with a twist. so they create sort of this fake monetization policy. they use a deepfake video of a ceo with a household name. youtube. the red

flag should have been for some of the creators. the scam sent them to private youtube channels instead of public youtube channels, and youtube did everything right. as soon as they figured out this was going on, they went out to the creators and said, here are the things our ceo will never do. and this is really important. we used to use adult learning specialists at my time at the white house and my time in financial services, and one of the things they taught me was a lot of times telling everybody the do's and don'ts. it's too much. >> pick 1 to. >> 2 things where you can alert people. this is something that we would never do, something that's out of behavior. so every company today should be thinking about what are the things your ceo would never do. for example, leading people to some type of cryptocurrency investment scheme. most ceos of companies wouldn't do something like that. so find a way to make those red flags really obvious for your customers. i guess this gets me to the question, though, of what

else ai generated videos could be asking people to do, or could be just trying to manipulate the markets, right? if you see someone very well known, like a jamie dimon or someone who's saying a warren buffett saying, hey, this is what we think is going to happen in the market, it's doomsday. look out. i mean, those are the type of things that you're not asking people to do anything, but it could very well move, make people move their their holdings in the markets or do something else along those lines. i mean, how do we distinguish what is an ai generated video from what is not? is there any tricks or are there any tricks or any ways that you can tell people to be on the lookout for that, or just don't believe anything you say or you hear you read or you see, i think you've hit the nail on the head there, becky. i mean it really. if you see some type of investment advice or some type of market news, that sounds just makes you have an emotional reaction, go and check three different sources. and i always say to people, have an

international source, a national source, and a local source that's trusted and vetted, and go see if you can find out what's being said there. the other piece i would say is in looking at things is go read the social media policies of companies. companies are doing a really good proactive job of mentioning. these are the only official accounts that you'll see information coming out of. these are the things our ceo will never do on social media, and that can be a great way to sort of tell yourself, wait a minute, the social media policy of the company that's posted on their own website says the ceo won't do things like this. so there's three trusted sources checking the social media policy that can go a long way. >> hey teresa, we're talking about it in the context of social media. i just actually met an executive last week who told me that they've set up personal, what they call passwords, so that when they're talking to each other that they actually use a specific word that's like a weird word because

of the sort of fake fakery. i mean, it could be that i somebody could fake my voice, call up becky on the phone, ask her, i don't know what. and she would think it's me. yeah, right. and so now people are actually creating passwords. i mean, that's. >> a whole. >> sort of safe word. it's like a whole new level. >> yeah, actually, i recommend this both to companies and individuals, because virtual kidnaping is an actual thing where you get that fake, that phone call saying your loved one's in jail, in the hospital or whatever. and so a couple of things. one is generating that passphrase that's not easily guessed by looking at social media or publicly available information, but also if in the moment of needing to remember that passphrase, you can't remember it, because sometimes that does happen. what i always tell people is come up with something that only the two of you would know. this actually combated a deep fake audio where a cfo thought he was talking to the ceo. they were talking about doing a wire transfer, and they

have a deep fake passphrase and he couldn't remember. so he said, boss, there was a book you asked me to read a couple of weeks ago when i was in your office. you held it up. i can't remember the name of the book. and basically the line went dead. so that can be a great way. again, find those things that are not easily guessed by the outside, and that can help you with the deep fake audio. >> but then, like oz, pearlman seems to be able to figure this stuff out himself. >> yeah. >> one out of 7 billion people. >> teresa. >> i mean, that is a kind of a terrifying. how much worse has this gotten over the last two years, would you say, just because i mean, think about wire transfers that take place every single day and authorizations for those things coming in. i mean, how much worse has it gotten? well, we know that phishing is up based on generative ai being a big part of that. phishing is up over 1,000%. we do know that

regardless of deepfake or not deepfake, that companies are targeted. about 400 companies are targeted every minute with ceo scams. they're not all successful, so the statistics are hard to find because not everybody reports them, especially if they don't become a victim of a business email compromise or something like that. but we do know that it's getting worse because we are getting the phone calls from companies saying we just had a near miss. this was really scary. what are some other things we can do? i would also tell everybody that deep fake audits of your executive team and of your board members is key. you need to have somebody on your team out there just looking at the internet, looking at videos, looking at audio. if you do see deepfake videos and audio, there is a takedown process that you can follow to request to be taken down. go back and look at your social media policies that you've published around how your ceos and your c-suite executives will conduct themselves publicly, talking about things that could

impact the market. your company, and again, more importantly, the thing we all remember is the one thing you tell people you'll never do. so give them that red flag up front. and that's really going to save a lot of heartache in the in the process. all right. it's a complicated world getting more complicated every day theresa thank you. we appreciate it. thanks for having me. >> it is. >> past 7 a.m. right now on the east coast. 706 to be exact. you're watching squawk box on cnbc. for some it's feeling like 606 if you're living through daylight savings time. for those of you in arizona, you're doing just fine. yes. right. >> 303. >> they don't they don't do it. >> everything so far away. >> but that's a separate issue. >> i'm talking along with joe kernen and becky quick among today's top stories. house republicans unveiling a spending bill that would keep federal agencies funded through the end of september. now congress has to act by midnight on friday to avoid a partial government shutdown. house speaker mike johnson teeing up the bill for a vote tomorrow, and former bank of canada and bank of england

head head mark carney, now set to become canada's next prime minister in the coming days. the country's governing liberal party elected carney in a weekend vote, and we're going to talk a lot more about what this means for the u.s. canada relationship with michael froman from cfr in just a bit, and china's consumer inflation turning negative for the first time in more than a year. the country's national cpi declining 0.7% last month. that's more than expected. the data was weighed down by a decline in food, tobacco and alcohol prices. >> and we're watching shares of novo nordisk. the company said that its experimental next generation obesity drug, burisma, helped patients with diabetes cut their weight by 15.7% after 68 weeks. novo initially set the bar at 25% of body weight or more, and the stock dropped sharply in december when the drug missed that milestone with 22.7% weight loss in an earlier trial.

analysts at the time criticized those results, describing the drug as only as good as zepp bound but more complex to manufacture. now, we should note that people with diabetes typically lose less weight than only obesity trials. but still, shares of novo nordisk are off by about 5.9%. if you take a look at shares of its rival, eli lilly, they're down by about $0.58. so just fractionally. >> president trump is speaking about the recent stock market volatility. eamon javers joins us now with more. hey eamon. >> yeah good. morning joe. >> in an interview with fox. >> news yesterday, president. >> trump addressed. >> last week's. >> stock market turmoil caused by confusion around his. >> tariff agenda. >> in one. >> exchange. >> the president suggested that calls by. >> the. >> business community. >> for clarity. >> on that. >> policy are just a talking point for the big globalists. >> here's what he said. >> i think that they say that, you know. >> it. >> sounds good to say. >> but. for years. the globalists, the big.

>> globalists have been ripping. >> off the. >> united states. >> and asked if he's okay. >> with. >> the stock market going down. the president dismissed. >> the. >> idea of short term focusing. >> on the stock market. >> i have to do is build a strong country. you can't. really watch the. >> stock market if. >> you look at china. they have a. 100 year perspective. >> we have a quarter. we go by quarters. >> that's true. >> and you can't go. >> by that. >> now that's a striking. >> departure and approach from the first trump administration, when. >> cabinet members. >> suggested that the stock. >> market was a. >> good barometer for how well the administration was performing. but this is a much more populist trump administration than in the first term. and you see that reflected by the president now dismissing stock market losses as pain for globalists, not his voter base. we'll see if trump continues that approach later today, when he's expected to meet with top technology executives at the white house. we expect. >> the. >> discussion there will include the president's tariff agenda. also, his call to repeal the

bipartisan chips act. and guys. andrew, i think thinking about this this morning, you and i were at a dinner in new york on. >> thursday night. >> where the discussion was largely around this. just how populist is this trump administration, and how much do these stock market losses move the needle inside this white house? i think it's different, a different calculation this time than it was last time around. >> so it may be different in this particular moment. the question is if this were to persist for several months or longer, how do you think that changes the dynamic? which is to say, if the stock market continues to fall, as you were to walk into midterms, for example, does that change what they want to do? or do you think that they're all in? >> so i think there's an intellectual group who are all in of populist, conservative economics folks who look at this and say, what we need to do is entirely restructure the us economy. the focus for too many years, too many decades has been on lowering prices, not on. families and communities. and that's really the central unit

of the economy should be the family, not prices. and you heard scott bessent, the treasury secretary, say this last week, you know that the ideal of the american dream is not about access to low prices. it's about other things. that's that sort of worldview. the question is how much pain trump himself is willing to tolerate. i think the answer is he's willing to tolerate a lot more pain on the stock market. as you just heard him say this time around than he was last time. but i don't think that's indefinite, right? i think there's some threshold larger than it was last time around at which the president might respond to stock market losses by changing course politically. i think we've got a ways to go, though, before that happens. >> yeah, it's not just how deep, but also how long, you know. >> and he can. he can point to interest rates too, which don't always, you know, the bonds themselves don't always sync up, sync up with with equities. and you could actually see, you know, equities coming down. and as a result bond prices go up with the flight to safety. and

then he would immediately talk about mortgage rates and consumer loans and all the benefits that come from that. so you can can kind of have you can you can pick something else to brag about. if the stock market is not cooperating. >> yeah. >> and it's largely about jobs, right. i mean, so that's one conservative economist looked at this and said to me, imagine rolling back the clock to 1990 and telling somebody in a small town in the american heartland, look, in the future your tv will cost ten times less, but your children are going to have to move out of your town because there won't be any work for them. would you take that deal? and he said that, you know, 90% of americans would not take that deal, even if it meant cheaper. >> can you ■get the. >> because of the devastation of their community? >> can you get the jobs back, especially when you're talking about automation of factories at this point? i mean. >> right. >> and how. long it takes to put some of those. >> that's the huge. >> gamble. >> tv is. >> making. >> like a 75 incher or i mean, what are we. >> talking whether.

>> you'd take the deal. >> no. >> no, i wouldn't, i. >> would. >> not, i would. >> not i mean, how many kids do you have, right. i mean, you know. it's that that calculation. >> to exactly. >> oh my. >> god. >> these are really big. questions when you think about it. and, you know, here we are. we're in our little gilded cage. i mean, it really was hollowed out the center of. the country. and we do love those cheap prices. but it came at a we'll see if prices really do rise. and it takes time to bring jobs back. and one might happen before the other. and we'll see what our actual resolve is. >> which i think you give. i think that's what trump well go ahead, go ahead. i mean. >> yeah, i was just going to say i think that's what trump was talking about in that soundbite where he said, what you have to do is build a strong country, not look at the stock market. right. he's signaling that that's his priority is rebuilding that industrial heartland of the united states. now, whether that's doable or not, as you guys point out, is a huge open question. whether it's doable in any kind of time frame

that lines up with political and economic reality is another question. but that's that's the goal that they're setting out to do here. it's a sweeping change, and it's not the sort of chamber of commerce george w bush republican party that we've seen in past decades. this is a republican party that's very focused again on on family and communities and workers. and that's a totally different approach. >> yep. all right. thanks, eamon. >> okay. we've got some deal news before we head to a break. rocket companies announcing a deal to acquire redfin for 12 point or $1,212.50 per share. it's an all stock transaction. total price $1.75 billion. and you're looking right now rocket companies off about actually close to 7% on the back of the news. but redfin up in a very big way, up about 80% right now. and there have been lots of questions about the future of redfin. >> all right. when we come back the market's getting ready for a big week. that includes key inflation reports, a countdown to a possible government

shutdown and more tariff chatter. we'll check out places to find opportunity next. you can see right now the dow futures are off by about 400 points s&p futures down by 60. the nasdaq down by 230. also later president trump's economic and tariff agenda. national economic council director kevin hassett will join us for an interview that you don't want to miss. stay tuned. you're watching squawk box and this is watching squawk box and this is cnbc. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars.

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elevated design for. >> thoughtful. >> living thuma. >> welcome back everybody. the market's coming off a volatile week that has left investors anxious about what comes next. joining us right now is lori calvasina, rbc capital markets

head of u.s. equity strategy. and lori, last week was a little bit rocky. this morning we're looking at the futures down pretty significantly too. how are you feeling about things. >> so look we haven't changed our target. we've been talking about sort of. >> our base case and. >> our bear. >> case all year. >> and we've said. >> the risks. >> of our. >> bear case have risen. >> and sort of. >> embedded in the idea. >> of. >> our base. case was a 5. >> to 10% drawdown. so we thought the market. >> would end the year at 6600. but have a 5 to. >> 10%. >> drawback during. >> the course of the year. >> that it would bounce back from. >> you know. >> i do. think the risks now. >> are rising, that. >> we. >> get. something worse than a. >> 10% drawdown, something. >> say, in the 14 to 20% range. >> we haven't. >> pivoted to that. but i do think it's an. >> important distinction. >> because. you're starting. >> to see. >> you. >> know, other other houses, frankly, start. talking about the. risks of a. >> recession are rising. >> and i think it's. important to remember in equity markets. >> sometimes we have something. >> in between. >> just garden. >> variety pullback. >> and. >> recession pricing. a recession is worth about a quarter to a third of a. >> drawdown in the market. >> from gfc. >> to. >> post or. >> to. >> covid.

>> we had. >> a great financial crisis. >> yeah. >> the financial crisis. we had. >> a number of these 15 to 20%. >> drawdowns, which were. growth scares. >> so fears. >> of a systemic. >> issue, the us debt. >> downgrade. >> sovereign debt crisis, the 1516. >> you know, kind. >> of mini. recession hit the industrial sector, not the consumer. and then sort of the debacle of 2018. >> and so i'm. >> worried about. that kind of scenario manifesting in markets, but not there yet. but that's where my radar is at. but you still think it's temporary. this would be a sell off. that would be a buying opportunity. >> i think that. >> valuations and we wrote about this in. >> our. >> weekly today. >> are starting. >> to. >> get interesting. if you look at the small caps there. >> i'm an. >> old small cap strategist. >> so they're. >> always a good. >> barometer when things. >> get. >> a little nutty in the market. >> and we're. >> at. >> 14.5 times. >> we've. >> broken below average. 2015 through. 2019 average tended to be the bottom. recessions are about. >> 11 to 13. so you're actually. >> not. >> that far off from. recession pricing in small caps. >> the broader markets have got a little bit more work to do. s&p top. >> ten is trading around 17 times. >> the average is. >> more like 15. >> so we need to break.

>> a bit more than that. >> but things are. >> starting to i wouldn't say problems are getting. >> fixed. >> but froth. >> has come. >> out of. >> raii on the retail investor survey. we're getting some froth out of these valuation metrics. even the top ten. >> market cap. names in. >> the s&p are trading around. 14 times or 24 times. that's down from 30. i mean, that's an investor's point of view. is that make you actually happy to see something like this? if things start to get a little more reasonable, start to come down in price, it's a buying opportunity. okay. >> so well, certainly. >> i would say, but you don't worry about the bigger issues. that would mean that we're down for the year. >> look, i. >> think that. >> stocks do tend to go down. and we've had. >> a. >> number of. >> you know. >> up years and some. >> some fantastic. >> up years. and if we hit my bear case, which would be about 57, 75. we'd be down a few percent. and that. is typically what. happens when we get down years in the equity market. the big major crises tend to be very, very rare. you never want to see stocks go down, especially when. >> it represents. >> economic angst. right? there are real people out there that get affected by that. but i do think. >> we just came. >> into the year.

>> very frothy on the cftc data, extremely frothy on valuations. i think we were going to have a bit of a. pullback 5 to 10% again one way or the other. again, risks of going beyond that are rising. but i do think we needed to get some of this froth out. okay lori, thanks for joining us. >> coming up a lot more on squawk this morning. leadership change for canada. mark carney is going to be set to become the next prime minister. we're going to find out what this could mean for the future. tariff negotiations with former trade representative michael froman. we'll do that next. plus, skybridge capital's anthony scaramucci joins us to talk crypto and the government building a strategic bitcoin reserve. all that and more as squawk box rolls on.

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>> welcome back to squawk box. former bank of canada and bank of england head somebody i think a lot of folks at squawk know mark carney set to become canada's next prime minister in the coming days. joining us right now, council on foreign relations president michael froman, who is a former u.s. trade representative. good morning to you. lots to discuss about this new role that mark carney will be taking and how you think it changes the dynamic or not, frankly, with the united states and this administration. >> well, the canadians are a bit bewildered. >> at the moment. >> they see that president trump has been having hotter rhetoric and actually firmer action against them than even against china. and they're wondering why. and what they need to do to get back in good stead. the president talks about fentanyl and illegal migration. that's not really a major issue on the northern border. about 50 pounds of fentanyl across the border

last year and about 26,000 migrants, compared to, of course, a multiple of that on our on our southern border. there are outstanding trade issues with canada, long standing issues around dairy and sugar and lumber. some of these go back decades, sometimes centuries, actually. and maybe those are the issues that the president wants to resolve with canada, but they're really not sure right now. there's just a lot of anger. what's interesting with mark carney coming in as prime minister is the conventional wisdom had been that the ruling party would be out with the next major, the next general election, but it's now a much closer race because the debate is who can best manage the united states and president trump. and of course, mark carney has very good relations with the united states, knows a lot of people here, has worked with the us financial community for a long time, and is very well respected in the united states. so we'll see how it has to play out in their election as well. >> in terms of being respected, not respected. do you think, though, it changes the actual conversation and ability to negotiate with president trump?

>> he does seem to put a lot of emphasis on on the personal respect, the personal relationship with the person across the way. i don't think he knows either one of the of the of the leaders of the parties that that well or that that much. but, you know, i think what's really at issue here is he's he's announced tariffs. he's pulled them back. he's re-announced them. we're really not sure where we stand in the actual imposition of tariffs. they can be a powerful source of leverage. but to be real leverage you have to lay out what it is you want the other party to do. and so far, the administration really hasn't laid that out in any great detail. >> well, so here's the thing. i can't figure out to have a relationship with the president in the right way. you know, i don't want to say bend the knee, but there's, you know, there's some sense you have you have to sort of go in and try to ingratiate yourself with him. what i, you know, the canadian people do not seem to want that kind of approach, right? i mean,

they almost want a they want the pushback, right? that's what that's where the popularity comes from. and so i just don't know how you get, you know, you can chew, you can walk and chew gum at the same time. >> look, i think it will take somebody who's pretty politically savvy to be able, as you say, to walk that fine line between doing what you need to do domestically, which is defend your national interests, as any leader would have to do, and engage constructively with, with president, with president trump. i think it can be done. i think a number of other leaders are doing it. i think keir starmer came to the us and there wasn't a lot of love lost between president trump and people around him and the labor party in the uk, but i think he's done a good job of reestablishing the relationship on a respectful basis and show that he could be a good partner. and hopefully earlier, mark carney as prime minister, could do the same. the. >> the. the. >> whole stance on climate in the new trump administration is that certainly diametrically

opposed? from what we hear from from mark carney, i think he i've read a quote that said, unless we get the net zero, the climate will never be stabilized or some comment like that. and then i saw sean duffy or one of his people say something. he called it the green new scam, so that you got one thing coming out of i don't know how that affects what this administration thinks of the carney government or vice versa, michael. but there's you know, and huge oil exporters, we're big oil importers, fossil fuels. it's going to be it's going to be fun to watch at least. but i don't know if that becomes a sticking point between the two countries. >> well, as you said, as you just noted, canada's been a little schizophrenic on on, on on climate change. on one hand, they've been a leader on climate change. and mark carney personally led a major effort to get international financial firms to mobilize resources behind the green transition. on the other hand, canada is a major producer of oil. a major

exporter has the oil sands, which became very controversial with pipelines through the united states. and we continue to import a lot of energy from canada. so they they they are certainly on the whole array of, of issues when it comes to energy and climate. and they are able to walk and chew gum at the same time. and i imagine prime minister carney will be as well. >> ambassador froman, i think we're going to leave it there. appreciate it. i don't know what to make of what's going to happen next. i think it's a hard one to pull off. >> he was very adamant. mark carney was in his commentary overnight saying we will never be a part of the united states. >> right, right. no, but that's what i'm saying. if you have if you have the public pressure against you, which is to say you need to push back on these, these other people, and then somehow you also need to befriend these people that the public is telling you not to befriend. it's a very hard

thing. and he was talking just about, you know, the prime minister in the uk. but by the way, he's getting a lot of pushback from his own people. by the way, he's getting pushed back from canada, you know, uk and canada. >> we you know, i follow all kinds of crazy nut jobs and they find me the nut jobs on the other side. they find me. they find you too, right. i'm seeing on the nut jobs on one side saying, lay off saying that you want canada as the 51st state, it would immediately occupy the position as the most liberal state in the union. it would make california. oh i see. no, not that the trump administration stop saying that. we don't want them. they're way too liberal. they too. woke to woke, way too woke. they suddenly have what, the house of representatives that could if we if the republicans have a one or 2 or 3 person margin, that could get skewed, although it's not. >> by the way, how many house members do you think you would get if you were the 51st. >> state population. >> given the population? well, it's a population story. it's

not just a landmass. >> story. >> but but. >> only only two senators. >> two senators for a large. >> yeah, yeah. >> how much would you if you were? but hold on, if you were carney. yeah. what would you want to negotiate for given the landmass? the i would be negotiating for. >> the maga types. don't want cat anymore. that was my point. >> i would take more than two senators. right. they don't want i would think, for that amount of land. >> you had your chance. >> every house. >> every you had. >> your chance represents about 700 million people. there are 40.1 million people in canada. >> so that's. yeah, they had their chance coming up. the trump administration pulling grants from columbia university. we're bringing the details straight ahead. later. the trump economy, tariffs, inflation data and more. with national. you can call the bluff. >> carney. should be like we're in. >> we're in, we're. >> in, we're in. >> kevin. kevin hassett is going to be on at 810 eastern. squawk box will be right back. yeah. >> we're. >> with 19 hotel brands at ihg hotels and resorts. you can

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that's my secret to better. >> odor control. >> everywhere. >> on friday, the trump administration said it's pulling $400 million in grants and contracts from columbia university accused the school of failing to do enough to squelch the anti-semitism on campus. in recent weeks, columbia has set

up a new disciplinary committee, ramped up investigations into students critical of israel. but those efforts evidently didn't go far enough for the white house or to prevent what's really happening on columbia, education secretary linda mcmahon said. for too long, columbia has abandoned the obligation to jewish students studying on its campus, and on saturday night, u.s. immigration agents arrested a palestinian graduate student, mahmoud khalil, who has played a prominent role in the pro-palestinian protests at columbia. reports say that his wife is a u.s. citizen, eight months pregnant, and he holds a us permanent residency green card. the department of homeland security said it had arrested khalil because what his activities have done were aligned to hamas and led to some things that could be, i guess, considered criminal activities. but it's a very gray area here. in a post yesterday, sharing a

news article about the arrest, secretary of state marco rubio said we will be revoking the visas and or green cards of hamas supporters in america. >> what do you think of this? and the reason i say i find, obviously the anti-semitism and all the protests i'm not obviously abhor and all of that. >> we're probably. >> the same. >> hold on. but then. >> no, i don't think. >> what i don't know, right, is especially this administration, which is arguing that they are free speech, free speech. >> free speech. >> i understand that. >> and you don't have. >> to. >> explain all. >> the stuff. we get the issues. >> but if what he did caused wokeness is, is we should be arrested and this should be arrested, like, i just don't know. >> i don't understand what the charges are. >> if it was just. >> leading a peaceful demonstration, obviously the free speech issues are paramount. if it's intimidating and chasing. 100% and causing. >> i agree. >> you know, destroying parts of the campus and make it impossible, making it impossible for jewish students to feel safe

on campus. >> i think i do at. >> times, you know. no, no, but it's very interesting. >> how so? initially, my knee jerk reaction was, get this guy out of here. that was my. the more you think about it, if it was like. >> i said. >> if it was purely just, we shall. >> overcome the charge. >> but if. >> it's radical and you know, you know, hurting policemen and pushing through barriers and really hurting, or eventually a jewish student loses their life or something. >> like that. >> then. >> oh. 100% out. >> of here. trust me, i know. right. so you see. >> i mean, i wondered if we'd talk about this and then you got, you know. >> i'm just saying. >> you got the. >> post. >> kick the guy out, ice kick him, and you got the daily news sparked outrage. >> i have. >> no love lost. for what's going on for this gentleman. i don't know this gentleman, but i don't even, you know, i don't agree with him. i don't like what he's saying. all of those things. all i'm saying is this administration has taken very interesting positions about this idea that everything's free

speech, but then they're suing, you know, media organizations, they're taking money away from universities. i mean, there's all sorts of things going on here that aren't completely. >> well, even with elon. >> consistent, let's just. >> say. >> twitter is open until you criticize, you know, it's like, do what i say, not what i do. you see a lot of that. this one i think the college is i mean i think they're they haven't done enough. and i think it's a. >> you know, i didn't realize he was living this protester was living in a university. >> even though he's graduated. >> even though he had graduated. i mean, that's that's where, you. >> just there's. just there to add. >> i'm not, by the way, i'm not defending this guy. >> just there to agitate. >> but i don't understand why the university didn't do something more. >> i mean, you'd even use this guy if he gives you a chance to criticize the trump administration. i'm not. i know. >> i'm not doing that at all. i'm just saying that there's a larger issue. not about this guy. let's take him completely out of it. >> that's who we're. >> talking about. well, i'm not talking about him. i am not talking about. is it okay to. >> just take someone's green

card or whatever just because you don't like their political views? but then again, like i said, if he's agitated to the point where someone's been hurt or property has been damaged, it's like, then i could see it. >> property damage. yeah, we've pardoned people who have damaged our property. >> i understand. >> in the united. >> states, i understand. >> on the capital. >> i understand, but this is in this is a different kind of this is a different connotation of being of harassing jewish students. and when you damage the property, they're they're unsafe. they're spending $90,000 a year to go to this place. they can't even go. >> to. >> tell it to the guards at the capitol. i mean, right, i'm just saying that this whole thing, there's nothing about all of this. i'm not defending this guy at all. i'm just saying. >> if one's a pardon, the other is a green card getting taken away. it's. you're mixing a lot of different metaphors here. >> justice is the broad. it's the broad. question is what does a consistent form of justice mean. and are it is this a

consistent form. >> of justice to get that in the last administration or this administration? >> i'm not suggesting it, but but shouldn't it be the ideal? >> it should always be the ideal. just we live in a real world. >> so you're fine with that? >> no, it's just that you want the ideal world when this guy is president. you didn't give a crap about. >> him. >> at. >> all, okay? >> it's not true at all. >> all right, when we come back, a check on consumers. steve liesman will join us with the latest cnbc, nrf retail monitor. latest cnbc, nrf retail monitor. that's next. squawk box will be this is steve. steve takes voquezna. this is steve's stomach, where voquezna can kick some acid, heal erosive esophagitis, also known as erosive gerd, and relieve related heartburn. voquezna is the first and only fda-approved treatment of its kind. 93% of adults were healed by 2 months. of those healed, 79% stayed healed. plus, voquezna can provide heartburn-free days and nights,

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top stories. key highlights hand selected daily by cnbc experts. sign up now for free go to cnbc. com slash spotlight. >> i haven't talked to him in a while. welcome back everybody. the latest cnbc, nrf retail monitor. just out with a look at the state of the consumer today. steve liesman joins us right now with more on that. hey steve. >> good morning becky. >> yeah. >> consumer spending declined. for a. >> second straight month, according to the cnbc, nrf retail monitor, signaling that weather and uncertainty created by tariffs. >> and other policies out of washington. >> continue taking a toll. in february. the retail monitor. >> powered by credit card. >> spending data from affinity solutions, shows retail spending ex auto and gas declining by. >> a. >> modest 0.22% after january.

sharp 1.07% decline. >> taking out restaurants. >> showed the same. zero two decline. the year over year rates falling to three four for the headline. >> and 4.1. >> for our core index, both down compared. to a month ago. it was the first back to back monthly decline for the monitor. we have back data going back to october 2022. the nrf said in its analysis that consumers look. >> to be less. >> confident, and that could be leading them. >> to boost savings. >> quote consumer spending dipped slightly again in february. >> due to the. >> combination of harsh winter weather and increased economic uncertainty caused by tariff and other policies that have started to negatively affect consumer sentiment. nine of 12 retail sectors saw declines during the month. >> with. >> the largest negative in gas stations. that should be good and should help other sectors. >> but building. >> in garden supplies, furniture, clothing and health and personal care also on the decline. gains in sporting goods and hobbies. nonstore retailers and miscellaneous retailers. but seven of the 12 sectors we

follow saw a second monthly decline in a row. now we're just gonna have to wait and see how much of the decline is weather and how much is confidence, both of whose effects could dissipate depending on the inherent vagaries of weather and policies that are out there? but the nrf does note the economic fundamentals remain strong, with low unemployment and wage gains that have been higher than inflation, so consumers could be spending if they wanted to be spending. >> yeah, i guess i try and figure it out because when january happened, we characterized it as well. it's kind of the hangover after that really big spending into the holiday season that we saw february. a lot of times we said whether i guess we're still trying to figure all of that out. but steve, there is a lot of recession talk all of a sudden. what's your your view on that? what's your perspective? >> well. >> you know, first of all, i think the us economy is very dynamic and companies have an ability to respond to changes in policies in ways that often

surprise us. i'm watching one particular idea, becky. the idea that you end up idling productive capacity and these tariffs could suddenly make some factories that just close down because it's no longer profitable to run them. even while the administration says there's a transition period. so that's what i'm watching. are these tariffs on or are they off. and then i think you have the combination also of this issue of confidence in ceo confidence and consumer confidence. we have to watch it. maybe some stability of the administration could alleviate some of those concerns that are out there about the economy. >> shut down factories here in the united states are outside the united states that are producing products. >> both sides. >> you've raised with these tariffs, becky, you raise the cost of the entire north american supply chain. that's why economists say these april tariffs have to come in to protect what you've done, which is raising the cost of the supply chain. so that's really the thing that people have to have to get used to. and whether or not that makes factories on

either side of the border potentially in an inefficient or unprofitable. >> okay, steve. >> thanks. >> coming up, what the markets are expecting from this week's inflation data, we've got some inflation data, we've got some ideas we'll tell you about [cheerful music] [phone ringing] not all multimillionaires build their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the boot strapper. the boot maker. hee-ha. but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice, every day, over a million multi-millionaires, trust schwab with more than three trillion dollars of their wealth. ♪♪ at franklin templeton, we are. >> expanding access. >> to the growing opportunity in

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learn more at jones road, beauty.com. >> inflation reports in focus this week. joining us now, bob michael, chief investment officer and head of the global fixed income, currency and commodities group at j.p. morgan asset management, where he oversees more than $800 billion in assets under management. and given your expertise, you can you know, we can look at fixed income commodities. we just talked about, you know, where you hang your hat. you should be the perfect person to let us know about inflation and whether it is. is there some new incremental inflation being added? is it the same inflation

that we didn't put to rest in the first place? it's rearing its ugly head again. is it some of both. is there a reason to worry? bond market doesn't seem to say what is your analysis taking all things into account? >> well. >> inflation was on a pretty good path. there was disinflation in place. prices were coming down. not quite at the fed's 2% target but. >> getting there. >> we're going to get some inflation. data this week. >> it won't. >> matter in. >> the least. the market's going to look right through it because right now. >> the market's concerned about the impact. >> of tariffs. >> how much is it going to take off. >> of growth. >> what does that do to the probability. of recession. >> and right now the market's pricing in a higher probability. >> of recession. and not so much the. >> reset in prices from tariffs. >> okay. so if. there's something to really be concerned with it's not the tariffs causing inflation to suddenly spike higher. again it's a growth worry. >> what's causing. >> what's causing the growth

worry. what's causing the downturn. >> well there's. >> a sense that that. >> we. >> share with the fed that rates are still too high for this economy. that the neutral rate is not four and 3/8 percent. it's probably not 3% either, but it's somewhere. >> in. >> the middle. what's causing the slowdown? >> the slowdown? i think just. the extent of time. there's a tiredness by businesses and households. they look in pretty good shape, but we're already starting to see profit margins and corporate america start to come down. >> a little bit. >> and i think just the uncertainty over policy is starting to give consumers and businesses a chance to. >> pause the uncertainty over policy tariffs. >> it's that and it's the volatility of everything else. last month it was on immigration policy. >> what would. >> that do to wage costs next month. it could be the tax cut and jobs act. it's just policy uncertainty. markets don't like

it. >> doge to. >> right. >> could could be could be. >> so all of this though the hope is it's a short term game doge and all these other things. do you see though the other side. do you see the rainbow on the other side of this? >> i do, it feels to us like the nasty stuff is being tackled first. immigration policy, tariffs. the other stuff could be positive. deregulation. there's a benefit to that. an extension of the tax cut and jobs act. do you need to hang more off of that. that's the kind of thing. >> that markets. >> regulation though. do you see i mean we're talking about mergers and acquisitions. for example, there's a real question about, you know, how harsh this ftc is going to be. i know lina khan is no longer in the job, but some of the commentary and some of the deals that have been blocked recently, the. >> deregulation, that that's only 10% of what deregulation delivers in terms of benefits. i don't when i hear deregulation, deregulation, i'm not immediately hoping everybody's merging. >> no, i understand that.

>> permitting and just. >> it's 100%, but it's. >> very hard. >> to quantify what the deregulatory landscape fundamentally does on an economic basis. right, right. i mean, because it sounds not only does it sound good, it should be good. >> not immediately, but banking fees for all these guys on wall street. the only thing that deregulation, by. >> the way. >> like bob. but bank stocks moved on the back of. >> this and other things and other reasons for deregulation, not just million things that that would be better for, for banks. basel, basel three capital requirements. >> across a. >> lot. >> of things. >> that they were going to be smaller banks that would be able to merge themselves. there was some m&a activity like crazy, there would be ipos, there would be capital. if i think deregulation was going. >> to be. >> minuscule with the m&a is minuscule for the benefits of deregulation. >> m&a out of it. >> the financial stakes will move based on what the fortunes of the country. >> right. i just don't think you can use m&a as a gauge of whether deregulation is going to be bullish for the economy. >> well.

>> look at the banks. banks are holding a lot of regulatory capital, capital for the basel three endgame. if that's truly ended then that's excess capital that can be pushed into the system, can be returned to shareholders, can be extended through credit in the system. think about the energy industry. how do you incent producers to produce more energy? we started with inflation. you bring oil down to $50 a barrel and gas below $2 at the pump. that's pretty good for the consumer. >> wow. >> i thought you were negative at first. now i think you're positive. i can't tell you. you're you're an enigma. you're you're an enigma. >> it's good ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected.

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with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. to make more. >> informed decisions. >> join the cnbc investing club to access jim's monthly meeting. go to cnbc.com. slash monthly meeting. >> it is 8 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching squawk box right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. and the futures on this monday morning are significantly weaker. you are now talking about the dow futures off by more than 440 points, s&p futures down 70. the nasdaq down by 278. of course this comes after a down week once again last week. let's get over to mike santoli at the nyse. mike these losses are really starting to add up. >> they are becky. >> in fact. >> the second week in a row where we had kind of this

phantom friday afternoon rally that seemed to take the pressure off. that was kind of immediately given up on monday morning. so down around 70 points. >> in the s&p 500 futures. >> that means. >> it's. >> going to put the index at. >> as indicated right now around that 5700 mark. >> we've spent. >> the better part. >> of a week there kind of chopping around that level trying to make it count. it's unclear if the. >> market is kind of over. >> enough on the dow, overdone enough on the downside to make that truly the source of a sustainable. >> rebound rally eventually. >> but clearly markets feet are moving quickly here. and i keep. >> pointing out. >> 5700 brings you just above the july highs. it's 5766. we kind of got there on friday. so it shows you the market has got this sort of brittle state, even as people suggest that not too much has changed in terms of the known earnings estimates. and obviously treasury yields have become a little bit less challenging. take a look at the way the. >> market is going. >> away from consumer cyclical plays toward defensive ones. so this is the equal weighted consumer discretionary etf. this

is consumer staples. and obviously it's just mirror image right here right. you're kind of pouring out of the economically leveraged consumer names and going into. >> the consumer. >> staples which by the way were really washed out. >> nobody wanted. >> them at all coming into this year. now there's. something else going on. aside from the growth scare concerns and the policy back and forth, which is there's been this real reversal. in momentum strategies. and a lot of attention has gone on this. hedge funds crowded into a lot of the same names. they have kind of hit the exits at the same time. that's this s&p momentum etf, which you can see. from mid-february has really been straight down. and this is the minimum volatility. so the lowest volatility names within the s&p 500 that's acting as shelter. everyone wants to sort of see. >> some kind. >> of evidence that this mechanical liquidation is maybe easing up, but really wasn't the case last week. we'll see if any of that can can can kick in this week guys.

>> yeah. and mike, we were talking earlier this morning about technical levels with with katie stockton. i know that's something you kind of follow too, just in terms of where we stand with some of this stuff. >> right. so we've been that 5700 level on the s&p also coincides with its 200 day average. that's not necessarily something where it's going to automatically bounce, but it seems like it has some importance. that's probably why the markets tried to see if there's some traction around there. and then you talk about those mid year lows, mid year highs from 2024 and that 5600 range. >> so it's. >> within a few percent of having some consequential levels hit here. and a lot of folks who i. say who i watch who say, you know here's what we want to see line up before we can say the market is really pulled back like a, like a slingshot and ready to go is there's. not been a lot of panic. >> evident in the. >> options trading volumes or etf outflows or things like that, where you start to see people say, get me out at any price. you don't always need that. but so far that hasn't shown up. >> okay mike thank you. mike

santoli. >> tom a number of tech ceos expected to head to the white house today for talks. these include the heads of ibm, hp and intel. sources say the agenda items are going to include making sure that ai remains open sourced. potential tariff exemptions and efforts to limit the effects of export controls on computer chips. joining us right now with a look at the c-suite and managing around uncertainty. alix partners executive chairman simon friedman. good morning to you. good morning andrew. okay. so if you're going into this meeting, what are you telling the president? and do you think the president is going to listen? well. >> i, of course, is still a massive opportunity, but also a threat. >> and so i. >> absolutely have. >> to understand. >> that on that agenda is going to be how do we make sure that the us continues to be the driver of ai for business? but they also have to be talking about tariffs. clearly they have to be talking about what the impact of this whipsawing of tariff policy is going to be. i suspect it's going to be a lively meeting. >> and where do you think? i mean, we've heard what the president said just even over the weekend where he said, look, i'm not looking at the stock

market, which obviously is a reversal in terms of how he thought about it during the first term. how long do you think that persists and how politically palatable is that? >> well, the trouble for ceos, andrew, is they simply can't. >> pivot at the speed at which. policy is being announced. >> they wake up every morning. it's a different position on tariffs. so they. >> just. >> don't know. >> what they're. >> planning for. and of course if you're an. industrial ceo and. >> you're having to. >> plan industrial production. >> certainly if you're coming. >> under. >> increasing pressure, which they are to bring production onshore, these. are hundreds of million. >> dollars billion. >> dollar decisions over. >> but if everybody's playing chicken with each other on the tariffs right. there's a there's a massive game of chicken with multiple chickens playing chicken with each other. right. at what point if you are a us ceo and at what point do you advise the us ceo to say, you know what, these tariffs are here for real. they're not going anywhere. it's actually worth you spending potentially billions of dollars to actually bring your manufacturing back to the us. or do you say we don't really know what's going to happen with tariffs. so actually put your, you know, put your

hands down. you can sit on them for a little bit because you've got to figure out what's going to happen first. >> so look i think everybody knows the destination is clear. tariffs will go up. it's a pressure to. put to bring production on. >> but do you think that the tariffs will go up for ever. do you think it's for a year or do you think it's for two years. do you think it's for the next ten years. if it's for the next ten years you make the investment here. i think you think it's not. you may say i'm going to wait to find out. >> well, if chairman powell said last week, in different. >> contexts, trying. >> to distill the signal from the noise is hard. i think what every ceo that i speak to, our clients, they are. >> planning for. >> tariffs being here for the foreseeable future. it's very difficult to actually form a budget for the year, let alone a plan for five years. but they understand that. >> why is that? why is general motors not moving all of its car manufacturing back to the us then? >> because it's very difficult, andrew. i mean, these are plants that take years to build. they're billions of dollars of investment. now, if you're a grocer, you know, if you're walmart or kroger, of course. >> you. can look. immediately whether you can. >> second source from the us.

not straightforward, but. possible if you're gm or ford. >> well, that's what i'm saying. all the hard choices. >> their hard choices. but of course these things can't be done swiftly. there's no quick solution to this. so how, for instance, one of the things we do with our clients. >> is set. >> up tariff war rooms. we have dozens of them going on at the moment. >> people understand. >> how they. can do tariff engineering, which means how do they. >> look at. >> different countries with different tariff likely outcomes. to minimize the impact of tariff? how do they actually. >> look at what's the best end run at the moment? what is the, dare i say, the best end run? if you're sitting in this tariff war room and you're saying the smartest way to get the goods and to avoid the tariffs is to do what? >> well. >> what you do, moving goods through where? >> it's not as simple as that. what you do is you look at every single component of how, not just how you source your product, how you. >> construct your product. >> can you bring. product into the us that's partially engineered so you don't. >> end up. >> causing tariff costs on indirect cost? how do you rethink the production using

different parts? all of these elements add up to tariff savings. but one thing, andrew, and this is the key point. one thing is for sure costs are going up. they will be borne. >> by the customer. >> they won't be eaten in the margin. and so for the customer, whether it's a washing machine or a pickup truck, costs are going up. >> so it's a tax on the american people. exactly. >> now whirlpool for instance, a great example, whirlpool in 2018 when the tariffs in china were up, they decided to bring 90% of their production onshore. the component cost of a whirlpool washing machine went up between 10 and 50%. so on average, excuse me, added $90 to every whirlpool machine that went to the customer. we're going to see this across the entire range. >> of product. >> engrossers will the prices will go up, the portion sizes will go down, and ultimately it. >> will hit the wallet. >> of the us voter. >> you're expecting a recession then? >> difficult to tell. i think that is the key question. we don't know, of course, but if inflation stays, stays high, if.

unemployment starts to rise, it's a possibility. >> okay, simon. thank you. thank you for having me. appreciate it. thank you, thank you. think of that. >> i think signal. >> from the noise is making a comeback. i've heard it like ten times in my life. that phrase. i thought once we canceled shep smith that no one would ever get the signal from the noise again. remember, that's the guy that used to do that supposedly coming up, national economic council director kevin hassett joins us to talk tariffs and recession risk that interview right after the break. squawk box coming right back. don't be afraid. >> did you know taking. >> xyzal at night. >> relieves allergies. >> while you sleep. >> so you wake. >> refreshed for a more productive day. get 24 hour continuous relief that does not fade. >> be wise. >> all take xyzal. at night. i made millions stealing homes before i went to prison. and if your. >> home's title. >> is unprotected. >> it's only a matter of time

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>> let's do. >> heifers trying to talk andrew into doing half of what you think and just do it. >> of what i actually think. >> half of what you think that you're not saying. now i want you to start like i do. what. >> welcome back to squawk box. >> all in. >> trouble, joy. >> joining us now national economic. it's out there in the ether. hey hassett. he is here today kevin hassett tell us everything's going to be okay. can can you do that. let's let's just start with that. allay our fears recession fears inflation fears. the president acknowledged that maybe we have to wait a little bit and that

we're not a country that, you know, gauges its success completely on the stock market, that it could be, you know, the heartland repopulating with great jobs. is that is that your story? >> yeah. >> you know. >> let's think about near-term and then medium term near-term. we've got a biden economy that, you know, still most of biden policies are in place. if you look at the atlanta fed gdp now number, it's showing negative first quarter, which is kind of, if you like, a metric of the inheritance of president biden. a lot of that is also from a big increase in the trade deficit, which, as you know, and you've been covering, joe, is happening in part because people are anxious about future tariffs. and so they're stockpiling. and so that's a very, very temporary phenomenon. i think that medium term, what you're seeing is the biggest tax cuts in history, a massive deregulation, a productivity boom from artificial intelligence and tariffs, which even if you take the high end estimates of the

tariff revenue, they're going to be just a tiny fraction of the size of the tax cuts, which are almost surely going to be in place. so if you're thinking about like what's going to happen to capital formation in the us, if you take our cost. >> of capital measures. >> it goes up 1,011% over the next year. there are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. but for sure this quarter, there are some blips in the data, including the negative gdp now, which are related both to the biden inheritance and to some, you know, timing effects that are happening ahead of tariffs. >> the main criticism, i think, even among financial types of the biden administration was the was the inflation. even people that didn't like the biden administration have to acknowledge that, you know, the jobs picture was strong through most of the biden administration and the gdp. gdp numbers were strong. maybe it was keynesian. maybe there's, you know, something comes home to roost from all that spending. maybe that's what you're talking about, but you don't consider

any of the current possibility of a softening economy. you don't think it has to do with the uncertainty of you don't think trump owns any of that? i think, you know, even someone that was right in the middle, right in the middle would not immediately attribute to softness. i'm seeing it on twitter constantly, you know, how's this guy doing now? how's that feel? how's winning feel with the economy? and they're not tying it to biden, kevin. they're tying it to some of the uncertainty from from the trump administration. >> well. >> let's be clear though, joe. >> that last year. >> the biden numbers, we kept getting these great jobs numbers. and then by the end. >> of the. >> year, we see that they're revised down by a whole million. and so a lot of the numbers that looked kind of good at the advance release weren't good. in retrospect, they're still. >> pretty good. and that was a technical thing. >> that technical ability of jobs is more than a technical thing. but the thing that. >> i would. >> say is that uncertainty. i have a paper that matt jensen and i wrote, we published a while ago on the impact of uncertainty on the economy. and basically what happens is when there's a lot of uncertainty, people who have big projects,

like you got to nail down a new factory or something tend to wait for the uncertainty to be resolved. but what i'm seeing in the jobs number, for example, is that the uncertainty is actually creating jobs in the us right now. we just saw 10,000 manufacturing jobs created in the us, 9000 auto jobs. and that's after losing 110,000 manufacturing last year. and so what's going on with the trade policy, which is a small fraction of the overall policy, is that it's starting to have the intended effect of onshoring activity in the us. now, people talk about the prices. what about the price of this, the price of that. don't forget that when you increase labor demand in the us, you increase wages. do you think, joe, that real wages are going to be higher a year from now, after we have the tax cuts and some tariff policy and deregulation and i our real wage is going to be higher. well, yes, of course they are. so therefore the welfare of americans will be better off and real wages decline for three of the four years that are joe biden. and so i'm very optimistic about the economy, but i'm also mindful of the gdp number, which is a very, very temporary phenomenon. so. >> are you foreshadowing? if

there is a recession, it's going to be biden's, you're going to call it biden's recession. i think the commerce secretary said there won't be one. the president seemed to at least acknowledge the possibility that there could be some near term. i don't know if you'd call it weakness, but there could be some near term disruptions, i think, he said, from from some of the policies that. >> i'd just. >> be very wary, joe, of conversations about recession. >> or not, given. >> that we had two negative quarters that used to be a recession under biden and then that wasn't a recession, i think that what's going to happen is the first quarter. >> is. >> going to squeak into the positive category, and then the. >> second. >> quarter is going to take off as everybody sees the reality of the tax cuts. like everybody's talking. again, a lot about uncertainty, for sure. there is some uncertainty over exactly how the trade policy will wk itself. >> out. >> but the tax policy is almost sure to work the way people are describing it in the house and the senate bills. the deregulation is already underway and the drilling baby drilling is going as well. and so there's

a heck of a lot of uncertainty that's resolved. i think that in the end, the trade policy uncertainty is the one thing that people will see. and that is going to be resolved in early april, as president trump has said. >> and so. >> i think that we're pretty close to having the uncertainty behind us. and as you know, when that happens, then the economy really lifts off. >> okay. so the uncertainty, if we get that behind us in april, if it does bring some near term pain or some near-term juggling or jostling that takes place, how long do you think that lasts, kevin, is this a situation where we have tariffs that kick in, they raise prices and then it takes how long for us to adjust to it? >> here's the thing that a lot of people are saying that becky. but the way i like to think about it is, if you think about it this way, that the us has a trade deficit of, what, about 1.2 trillion? and it's been very, very persistent. and so when you ask yourself, why is there a trade deficit that just keeps coming, why is it that currency markets aren't adjusting. so the trade deficit balances the way adam smith would say, well, it's got to be because the supply of stuff sent

to the us is extremely inelastic. it's kind of like if you have an apple tree with 100 apples in it, and then you have a tariff, and then all of a sudden, you know, people demand fewer apples, well, the guy's got to sell 100 apples, right? and so he's going to have to eat the tariff. if he only sells 90 apples, ten of them are going into the ground and rotting. and so i think that we've got very inelastic supply. that's why we've had these persistent trade deficits. and so the idea that american consumers are going to bear most of the tariff is just not economically literate, frankly. and it's got to be the only explanation for the persistent trade deficit is that we've got lots of inelastic supply. and so if we put a tariff on foreign countries, then their capital and their workers, they're going to bear a good chunk of that tariff. and i think then what we're doing is we're we're changing the tax code so that we're lowering taxes on the taxes that americans bear and increasing taxes on the taxes that foreign inelastic supply bears. and that's very bullish for america, kevin. >> that's certainly what happened with the tariffs on china that were put in in the

last trump administration. it was not passed directly on to the consumer. much of that was picked up by manufacturing in china. but most economists think that there is a limit to how much can be absorbed before it does come back, and really back the consumer to where do you think those limits are? what's a reasonable amount before you think, okay, they can't absorb anymore and they would raise prices? >> well. >> don't forget. >> there's a huge amount of trade, almost $1 trillion of imports between canada and mexico. and one of the things that we talked about from the beginning and then did after we saw some progress on fentanyl, is exclude the quote unquote, usmca stuff. the usmca stuff is 50, 60% of all the trade in canada and mexico. and to get something qualified as a usmca, good. you just have to have u.s. content. so if there's, you know, us parts that get shipped over to mexico, and then they assemble them into a car, that if you put a tariff on that, then a lot of the tariff is on us parts. that doesn't make sense. and that's why the exemptions are there. and so i

would expect that one of the things that's going to happen is that people are going to have lots of. levers that they can pull, you know, as the final tariffs are visible and one of them is having more us content, if you have more us content, that that will be quite helpful in the end. don't forget to trade isn't, you know, the majority of the economy. it's a fraction of the economy. and if there's a little bit of change in the price of things, then you have to say, well, is that also going to affect wages? and as again, we saw big increase in manufacturing employment in february, which should increase the real wage. and so i think in the end it's got to be even with a tariff policy, a prudent tariff policy, that real wages are up a year from now. >> it might not be, you know, trade is not everything, obviously, but it is something on the margin. and we do keep hearing again and again you have to acknowledge this, kevin, that uncertainty causes ceos and decision makers when they're thinking about new projects or deploying capital or where to build something, or when to build something. and andrew has pointed out that merger and acquisition activity they thought would be a big benefit

from the deregulation that we're seeing with the ftc or whatever. you're not seeing that. and you and you are it seems that you're seeing some hesitation by corporate decision makers to embark on big projects or capital deployment just because of the uncertainty you don't. will you acknowledge that? >> exactly. oh, exactly. exactly, joe. and again, i have a paper that's about ten years old where i wrote a lot about this. what happens is if you have a big what we call in economics, irreversible project, a thing where you nail it down and then it's not like a used car that you can sell right away. then when there's a big election, then people tend to wait until both after the election happens, which would be november, but also into march or so, where they wait to see is congress going to be able to function? and in that time period, big irreversible investments tend to slow down. in fact, in the paper that i wrote with matt jensen a while ago, i guess this one was with joe sullivan, that we found that the relative odds of recession were about double around an election year, because people were holding off on the big

projects. and so you could think that there's like a tariff effect on that. but really there's an election effect on that that americans have experienced over and over and over again for every election. and the evidence is that that election uncertainty usually gets resolved around march, which is about where that's going to say, though, kevin, in terms of looking at the numbers, looking at a calendar between the tariff piece we're talking about in april, between what you're talking about, this sort of investment theory about uncertainty and the like, when would it show up in the numbers? when? i mean, to the extent that you have to plead patience with the american public to say, look, this is all going to work out, but it's going to take a little bit of time. the president saying that there's a sort of a temporary period here. when do you think we'd be on the set having this conversation? and either the markets would look different as a result of this, or the sort of spirits in terms of around the economy would, would feel different. i think there are some things that already you're seeing are moving in exactly the right direction. so if you look at what's happened to the ten year rate, i think that all the spending that we put into our reconciliation

package, plus, you know, the doge spending cuts are going to be on top of that. that's put a lot of downward pressure on interest rates. that's making it easier to buy a car, easier to buy a house. that kind of stuff is being resolved already. i think that the idea about when or how much do people have to move stuff from this country to that country, that's the stuff that i expect will be resolved and visible in april. but the uncertainty over that is already visible in the numbers. that's what i'm saying. so imagine we made 9000 auto jobs in february, even though there aren't any auto tariffs, new auto tariffs in yet. that's because people are onshoring production, which bids up the wage and makes the welfare of americans better. just as president trump said. >> i think you had a really a great freudian slip there. you said if you look at all the spending that we put into the reconciliation package, you meant spending cuts. >> petty cuts. yeah, that's right, spending cuts. >> you left out. that was so cut. >> yeah. >> because massey thinks it's spending. he he's he's going yeah kevin admitted it. he's nodding.

>> that's 2.5 trillion. it's 2.5 trillion in cuts. >> 2.5 trillion in cuts. all right mr. hassett, don't be a stranger. >> of course good to be here. >> because the other side is going to, you know going to hit in a vacuum. the other side is going to define the narrative. and you come on and you say stuff that totally defines it from, from your side. and i like that. it's somewhere in the middle. don't you think so, becky? >> we'll be right. we'll be right. >> right before right again. >> somewhere in the middle. what do you how do we find it? you know what we're looking for? signal from all the noise. thank you. kevin. thank you. good to have you on. >> see you. thanks, kevin. when we come back from friday's jobs report to this week's big inflation report, we're going to talk markets and the economy with evercore. roger altman, as we head to a break, a check on shares of apple this after friday's announcement that it's delaying an ai upgrade for siri, but still expects to roll out the upgrade this year. we'll talk more about it this morning. citi removing that stock from its positive catalyst watch list

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for the roofing materials and building products distributor. that's a slight uptick from past offers. qcso tried to acquire beacon for 124 25, but that deal was rejected. it kicked in a dime. i think that what we said. beacon has also delayed its investor day. and becky, we're watching some other stocks. >> we are. i'm just going to put the market cap. >> at 11 billion. >> is the combined market cap? >> yeah that's what. >> i figured. yeah. we're also watching shares of tesla today after shedding more than 10% last week and marking the seventh straight week of declines, that's a record for that stock. in the meantime, the financial times is reporting that wealthy chinese investors are funneling tens of millions of dollars into private companies that are controlled by musk. the ft says that that includes x.ai, neuralink and spacex with china based asset managers promoting the relationship between elon musk and president trump as they work to raise capital.

>> up next, a lot more. it was a rough week for the markets, as we all know, and now, symbols of the r-word. i hate to say that word. i won't say it out loud. have investors now on edge as we head into another big week of economic data? roger altman of evercore is going to be with us to discuss all of that and what's going on in the mind of ceos in the corner office all over america. before we go, though, i want to get a quick check on bitcoin this morning. you're looking at right now. it's sitting just at about $82,890. skybridge capital anthony scaramucci is going to join us to talk about crypto and so much more in just a moment. squawk box returns after this. >> opportunities can be hard to find. >> like catching lightning in a bottle. in uncertain times. >> it's tempting to retreat or simply wait. >> and see. at cme group, we empower those who act. >> we deliver tools. >> to help. >> manage risk and capture

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and i look at it and i like it. i'm so happy with it. well, there could be more market uncertainty this week with tariff negotiations, the release of key inflation data, and a deadline for a government shutdown. ahead of all of that, we want to bring in roger altman. he is the founder and senior chairman of evercore. and roger, you've been around to see a lot of discussions about what happens with the economy, where things are headed. how are you feeling right now? if you look at the numbers, the economy still looks pretty good, but there's a lot of talk of the odds of recession rising. not to a base case, but but but rising

nonetheless. >> well, i think that's the big question. >> underlying markets. >> is growth. >> really going to slow? >> i think it's a little. >> too soon to judge. i mean, we saw powell's comment friday and quote in good shape. jobs number was fine, although it's backward looking. and i think there's some tension between the short term. >> outlook where. >> tariff and other policy uncertainty may be. weighing on the markets and on the economy. >> and the. >> medium. >> term outlook, where if the trump tax cuts go. through and i think they will, and that overall budget goes through, you know, that may provide a boost. so very short term, i think there's some weakness developing. >> i mean we. >> all see the first quarter outlook being marked. down. by the way, i saw kevin hassett's comment that's on biden. i'm not sure about. >> that, but. >> i called him out on it. i helped didn't i? >> you did. but i think medium

term, it's too. >> soon to judge whether. >> this weakness. >> would. >> be enduring or not enduring, including we really don't know where tariffs are going. i mean, i see a scenario. where possibly they don't last that. long. and. >> those that do. last are. >> very strategic. i mean, tariffs vis a vis china. >> are pretty. >> strategic in terms. >> of the overall us-china relationship. and some of the others, i think are tactical. in other words, interim. >> okay. we have had people who have suggested, though, that this is not like trump 1.0, that this is a different administration with very different thoughts on some of these things, and that if they are looking for money to make sure they balance the budget, they're going to have to do things like hit their biggest trading partners. and that would include us and i mean, canada and mexico. >> yeah. >> but as you guys. >> have been discussing at length. >> it's butting. >> up against the markets. i mean, we've seen in the last week or two when. >> tariffs are. >> delayed, markets. >> rally. >> when tariffs go forward or the talk as they're going

forward, markets weaken. eventually that's going to take a toll on the thinking of the administration. i think it would take a toll on any administration. although i think president trump is probably more sensitive to that than some of his predecessors. >> so you are thinking of this as tariffs that go away for some of those major trading partners. >> i just think. >> it's possible, if we look about if we look at so many back, so much back and forth over the last just one week, one week, how many different decisions. >> came forward? when you're sitting with ceos, though, and they're talking about either investments, mergers. you know, ipos, all sorts of things, what is the what is the language that they're using in the room right now. >> well let's define. our terms. let's talk about the corporate sector not wall. >> street okay. corporate sector. >> yeah. and secondly as you guys know so well there's no single view out there. >> of course. >> of course. >> so it's. >> a tale. >> of two cities. initially following the election there was optimism. the overall trump

bump, tax cuts coming, deregulation, pro-business administration and markets rising sharply. right now let's say there's some. uncertainty that's settling in after all, business, for obvious reasons, likes predictable policies. >> because they can. >> plan against. >> them again. >> and at the moment, that's not what the administration. >> is providing. i think. >> that's. >> a fair comment. there's a lot of. back and forth. there's a lot of. changing of the mind. so it's there's a. >> but do you believe that? i mean, kevin hassett said, come april 2nd, you're going to know what the plan is forever. >> i don't think that's that's. >> the case. >> roger. you know what? i was just thinking that. >> just let me give you a. >> clearer answer. so it's the views in the corporate sector are in transition. they're transitioning from initial strong optimism to some uncertainty. i don't think they're negative. but there's just some uncertainty aside. you

had to guess. >> which party was saying we are going to sacrifice near-term stock market action for building out the middle class and bringing jobs back to the center of the country. and not everyone's going to get, you know, we love cheap goods, but we're going to try to rebuild the middle class, which remember how many times president biden said we're going to build from the middle class out? this almost sounds like a playbook. the rationale is, is a play. and i see this. if you don't, democrats are going to have a hard time. what's the new message for democrats right now? >> that's a good message. >> what these tariffs are supposedly going to accomplish. you kind of you let the republicans steal the whole middle. >> class okay. two part reaction. obviously the trump proposition is. the impact of the tariffs on big exporters to the united states. will be so punitive that. >> they will move production. >> back here and investment, production and jobs back here.

right. and over a four year period he's going to be president for four years. >> it's not very long. >> well no. but over a four year period that's enough time for that to have effect. and if they stick. >> with that, but if they stick with that there's going to be probably pain from the stock market in the short term. >> yeah. >> but that's the. >> point joe's making. i mean. >> there is a i don't think. >> that i. see short term pain. it just has to be because tariffs are a price increase on consumers, which means less consumption, less investment, less jobs. but if that works in the long term at four years, i think there's enough time. then it pays off. >> okay. but here's what investors are thinking right now. we've seen a sell off that's begun. if you think that this is something that the president's going to say, forget about it. i don't want to feel more pain. you would not, you know, you would potentially buy here. if not, you might say, i'm going to wait for better prices. >> well, and that's the equation, andrew, that businesses are thinking what is. really going. >> to be the. >> ongoing tariff policy.

>> right. >> and right now it's hard to tell. it's very hard to. tell because there have been so much back and forth. >> in terms of the deregulatory agenda. how does that manifest itself? that was what sort of part of the animal spirits piece of this was we talked about m&a activity in the month of january, which was remarkably low. kevin hassett said, be patient. it's always like that. the first couple of months out of the gate, when you're talking to ceos about doing mergers, about ipos, are they saying, we got to wait. we got to see what the ftc is really doing? we were happy lina khan's not there, but we're not sure what what the what the new sheriff really thinks. well. >> i. >> think the. >> the. >> market itself, which is now down for the year and was down three point something percent last week. >> is having. >> a bigger effect. >> on. that than uncertainty. >> about policy. >> i mean, okay. >> i mean, i always say that m&a is strong. >> when. >> business conditions are. >> good. >> equity values are high, and

ceo confidence is positive, >> right. >> and right now there's a little uncertainty about business conditions. this question of short term. pain markets are weakening. and confidence is okay but not awesome. and so those aren't perfect conditions for strong m&a volume. now they may evolve into being you know i mean i have to be fair to trump a lot of his agenda. they haven't had time to implement it yet. right? i mean the. >> tax agenda. >> for example, much of the deregulation. >> agenda is. >> still in formation, so to speak. so we have to really look at. this not just short term but medium term. and if all that comes forward and markets respond positively. >> you're going to see. >> you're going. >> to see strong. >> m&a okay. >> i think. >> roger thank you. >> thank you guys. >> when we come back a lot more on squawk anthony scaramucci of skybridge capital. he's going to talk bitcoin possible stablecoin

legislation. the newly established bitcoin reserve programing. note you don't want to miss brian sullivan. he's got an interview coming up with energy secretary chris wright. that's going to happen later today on power lunch. he's at the ceraweek conference. stay tuned. you're watching squawk. tuned. you're watching squawk. and this is in a world of seismic change, will your business shape the future or be shaped by it? how will we capture the imagination of tomorrow's consumers? overcome operational constraints to focus on future growth? and harness technology and ai to power entire industries? with ey's full spectrum of services across sectors, we're all in to shape the future with confidence. congratulations mom and dad. your life now revolves around sports. everett! nila! yeeeeahhh but you wouldn't trade it for anything. welcome to sporthood.

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>> welcome back to squawk strategy, the company formerly known as microstrategy, now filing to sell up to $21 billion of its stock as part of a at the market program. it's going to use the proceeds for corporate purposes, which if you know the company means including bitcoin acquisitions. joining us right now to talk crypto and so much more, anthony scaramucci, founder and managing partner of skybridge capital. it's great to see you, anthony. we're looking at bitcoin sitting just at about 82,000 bucks right about now. it's obviously come down a bit in the back in the background. we've got this bitcoin reserve though. and i think a lot of the move prior to that had been on speculation that that would come about. now there's all sorts of debate about how it's really going to work and whether the government and taxpayers are going to ultimately be buying bitcoin. what do you think? >> well good. >> morning andrew. >> i.

>> i love. >> the strategy. >> i want to applaud. >> david sachs. >> for the job that he's done in terms of organizing the. >> administration. >> going to the congress and. talking to the congress about the ideas around bitcoin and stablecoin legislation. >> and i think the. >> if you read. >> through the executive order, there's a lot of meat in there for bitcoiners. >> the problem with bitcoiners, unfortunately, they've. >> been beaten down over the last 4 or 5 years. and so the expectations were very. high that the trump. >> administration would just come. >> in, turn. >> on a switch. >> and they. >> would have this halcyon era. >> i think what david. >> sachs has done. >> frankly. >> is. >> brilliant because he's trying to. create a bipartisan. >> commitment and. >> a bipartisan. >> understanding to. >> digital assets and. >> the space. >> of digital assets in the united states. so the trading is. >> sloppy right now. >> but i. >> think if you look. >> forward over the next 3 to 6 months, you'll see. >> a lot. >> more institutional buying. and the fact that the united states. >> is going.

>> to hold this. asset means that. >> other. >> countries, andrew. >> are going to end up buying. >> this asset as well. >> so how much of it, though, depends on the us government and taxpayers buying bitcoin? or do you think just the idea that this reserve, which is coming from basically stolen or illicit bitcoin, which i also don't think is a great advertisement for bitcoin, how does that reserve therefore grow if there if there is an additional money put in. >> well i'm. >> okay, but. >> there's been forfeitures of. >> us dollars. there's obviously. >> frozen russian assets. and so if you just equate bitcoin. >> to currency. >> or dollars then i think you can. >> get get. >> over that assertion that it's quote unquote stolen. it's just a forfeited asset. >> but i think. >> that i. >> think. >> what david is basically saying, or what the communiqué from the trump administration is. >> saying, that they're not going to. >> spend taxpayer. >> dollars on this, but. >> they will find revenue. >> neutral ways. >> to acquire. >> bitcoin that. >> could be. >> selling other assets. >> frankly, that have been under forfeiture to the united.

>> states and. >> transitioning them. >> into bitcoin. >> so again. >> it's a it's a step in the right direction. and i. >> think. >> it's very, very important. if you think about the assets that are in our strategic reserve. >> they're nonpartisan. i don't. >> think there's a debate in. >> the congress. >> about. >> holding gold. >> or holding. oil or some of the rare. >> earth minerals. >> or even some of the medical supplies, frankly, that. the us holds in its strategic reserve. >> and i think we want to get bitcoin to that. >> position, andrew, and. >> it will take some time. and i applaud. >> these guys for having patience. i think. >> if. >> they went very, very quickly and sort of rammed. >> this. into place. >> there would have. >> been. >> a. >> reaction formation on the side of the democrats. >> so here's the part i don't this is the part that i'm confused about about bitcoin as a strategic reserve in this country. and as we've discussed, i mean, look, people used to sa, if the us government was buying solyndra, that that was a terrible idea, that they don't know how to operate or run the

post office or all of the things that supposedly the government is completely incapable of doing. and so the idea that we are going to invest and potentially lever ourselves up, meaning use taxpayer debt effectively to do this, i think for people on the truly conservative side and you could say conservative politically or conservative economically, they say that i don't they don't understand this. >> okay. well, i would. >> i. >> would encourage them to do a lot more work. >> on it, because. >> if you accept what michael saylor is saying, that this is an. >> operating software. >> layer for. >> the future. >> of transactions. >> and if you. believe what i believe. >> that. >> this is. >> a. digital store of value and it's equivalent to digital gold. >> and when you. >> go into. >> the. >> future 10. >> or. >> 15. years from now. >> i do think the united states is going. >> to want to have. >> this as a reserve asset in order to maintain. >> the stability. >> of the dollar and the. supremacy of the dollar. and so. >> i think. >> concomitant to. >> that is the is the

stablecoin. legislation to. >> obviously empower the. >> dollar further. >> but but again, this is not a solyndra. it's not. >> a company. >> i think. >> if we think. >> of. >> think if the government was totally. >> on my. >> side on this one, joe. >> no, i'm you're going to you're going to hear me on your side. think of the think of the government was totally all in on 2 or 3%, like governments that are totally at risk of the devaluation in the, you know, the we've seen what the fed is capable of and what we're capable of in terms of spending. you would almost think that there's more risk in being stuck in fixed income long, you know, long duration assets. you'd almost want bitcoin to offset the risk, which is in those things i think, wouldn't you. >> yeah, i think the you know again what andrew is saying. >> i think. >> is. >> more company. >> and venture. >> capital related. >> that's that's.

>> a question. >> for another day related. >> to a sovereign. >> wealth fund. and should. the us be in that business. but this is again, if you. >> think that this. >> is a reserve asset and this is going. >> to be digital gold, i. >> think joe believes that. >> i certainly believe that. and i've been a bitcoin holder for just over. >> five years. this is. >> something i. >> would. >> want the country. >> to own, to defend itself and to defend the currency. and i think guys like david sax, of course, understand that. >> i think. >> they've done a great job of convincing president trump of that. and what i would suggest to democrats is that they get. >> on. >> board, you know, just because the trump administration, this is a big danger. >> now. >> in our society, if the trump administration has good ideas, let's call balls and strikes and say that they're good ideas. i think these guys make a mistake. if the president was right on the border, you reverse everything on the border and you cause a disaster on the border. let's not do that here. let's make this bipartisan. >> let's get people to. >> understand this better. >> andrew, there's. >> a lot of skeptics. particularly people my. >> age or older. >> that don't understand it. i

was at at a. >> yale event. >> on, on saturday, and a couple. >> of people. >> that are roughly in the same demographic group as me hated, don't understand it or. >> negative on it, think. >> it's worthless. >> but it's. >> a it's. a very valuable long. >> term strategic asset. >> and i believe the us should own it. and i think david sax. >> and. >> his team has come up with a way for us to own it in a way that's the. least controversial. >> way. which is not. >> having it. >> cost the taxpayers anything. >> additional to own the asset. yeah. okay. that you just answered my. >> question, anthony. we got to go. but one last thing. how do you feel and how do you think the american public should feel about the empirical conflicts of interest that are presented by the people who are putting this all together, meaning they own the they own the asset and ostensibly should benefit as a result? okay. >> well, again, sax has said. >> declaratively that he does. >> not own the asset, that he sold all of. >> his exposure. i think the. >> people that are in the administration that own the assets should sell the asset. i think this is the problem. there

are clear ethical rules and clear guidelines. you know. when i went to go work in the administration, i had to put skybridge up. >> for sale. >> of course. >> i. >> got fired. >> and so. >> good news for me is i didn't sell skybridge. i was able to. >> return back. >> to skybridge. >> but i think people that are in the administration, there are certain ethical guidelines that they should follow and they should shed this asset if they own the asset. >> i think. >> it's i. >> think it's a. >> dangerous thing. >> i thought about. >> you. >> with all those those. >> crypto bros, anthony. and i was like, i kind of thought maybe you wished you were there. maybe next time next year. no. joe. joe. >> i want to be with you. >> joe. i don't. need to be with them. i want to be with you. joe. i thought about you, though, because this is more. fun for me, joe. all there. and i was like, where? where is anthony? and maybe i think next year. >> i'm right here. >> with you, joe. >> right where. >> i was. >> intended to be. >> joe. >> right here. >> all right. >> all right. >> okay. anthony. nice to see you, sir. thank you. >> good to. >> see you guys. >> still to come. oracle set to report after the bell today. the stock up 38% in a strong

performance this year really of its cloud business will preview what you need to watch when the numbers hit. they always have this weird reporting but it gives us something to talk about. anyway. in the middle of the lull of most earnings, you the lull of most earnings, you need to watch when the numbers [ car engine revving ] >> at

its fiscal third quarter results after the bell today. joining us for a preview of that is alex zukin software equity research analyst at wolfe research. alex what are you looking for? >> look, we're looking for. >> another strong quarter. >> we think oracle is. >> benefiting from the secular momentum in generative ai. we think they're one of the probably most up and coming neo clouds out there supporting some of these large training workloads and clusters. you've seen them in the news with stargate. you've seen them talk talking about meta. some of these very large providers that we think position them really well for continued accelerating growth at scale. we're looking for a really strong bookings number and rpo. we're looking for accelerating iaas growth and ultimately looking for accelerating revenue growth, which we think they can sustain and maintain. >> what about the guidance?

>> yeah. look on guidance. we think the world is changing pretty rapidly. so we wouldn't be surprised for them to be a little bit more conservative. but we think that that's in spite of all of the bookings coming off the balance sheet that they've been able to, you know, really maintain throughout the course of the last 12 months. we think that's going to continue to drive the growth rate. so we think that they've done a pretty good job of letting everybody know that margins are going to trend down as more of these capacities come online. we think there's a natural floor for that next year. >> and very quickly, alex, that stock is up 35% over the last year. what's your price target. >> our price target. >> is 205. and we think that you know that stock can continue to continue to move. >> all right. that's a big move over the next 12 months. alex i want to thank you for joining us ahead of the numbers today. we

appreciate it. thanks guys. okay. very quickly take a look at the futures they have weakened throughout the morning. the dow futures are now down more than 450 points. the percentage drop for the nasdaq is pretty strong too. it's down by 310 points. s&p futures are off by 75. a lot to watch today. make sure you follow us tomorrow. and we'll kick things off right now with squawk on the street. that's next. >> good monday morning. >> welcome to squawk on the street. >> i'm carl quintanilla with. >> jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber is on assignment. stocks do. >> look. >> to give back all of friday's late rally and then some. >> ahead of. >> a big week of inflation data and a government shutdown deadline. >> that's where our road map begins. >> as stocks headed toward another lower open. s&p is coming off the worst week of the year. novo nordisk shares tumbling premarket some weaker than expected data for its latest weight loss drug. and more. prote