4.5% more than that for the nasdaq. brian will have a lot more coverage from ceraweek tomorrow and we look forward to that. i appreciate his patience. some great interviews this hour. closing bell starts right now. >> all right. >> kelly, thanks so much. welcome to closing bell. i'm scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. a very busy day. this make or break hour begins with sinking stocks again as the markets remain firmly on edge here. investor optimism so strong in the fall, suddenly shrinking as fears of a recession continue to rise. take a look at the scorecard here. with 60 to go in regulation on this monday. ugly from the outset. today, technology stocks are by far the biggest drag on these markets. tesla is tumbling again. nvidia sliding. apple two almost nowhere to hide here. bitcoin below 80 k for the first time since november. so it is decidedly risk off. elsewhere, the names most sensitive to the economy are falling from

airlines to retailers to the banks yet again. all of it taking us to our talk of the tape. the no good nasdaq sinking deeper now into correction. it is the worst day since at least january of 2022 or june of 22. excuse me. we do have several reporters on the case for us today. phil lebeau on tesla's historic losing streak. steve kovach on what's eating apple yet again today. christina partsinevelos on nvidia's drop and the chip wreck. and seema mody on the continued momentum misery. phil, though we do begin with you today, this is the worst day in some four and a half years for tesla. >> and remember all those gains after the election. >> that tesla was racking. >> up and. >> people were. >> like. >> wow, it's going to the moon. >> no, all of those have been erased. >> they're completely. >> gone now. >> take a look at. >> shares of tesla down more than 15% today. >> look at this. >> if you go back to december 17th down 51% that they're down with the entire market. but if you had to point to a catalyst today, you might look at the ubs note that came out. joe spak is

the analyst there. reiterating a sell rating. cutting the 25 eps estimate from ubs. >> from ubs to. >> 202 was 316. that's what they were previously expecting or 3.15 from tesla. also lowering the q1 delivery estimate. ubs now believes that. >> for all. >> of 2025, tesla deliveries. >> globally will be down. >> 5% at 1.7 million. >> they had. >> a slight decline last year. they're saying it's going. >> to get. >> worse this year and go down to 1.7 million. by the way, the street estimate at least this morning was higher than that. don't be surprised if more analysts follow and perhaps cut their estimates as well. >> as you take. >> a look at tesla over the last year, we should point out that ubs also lowered its price target for tesla down to 225 from 259. now, if you bought in now, you might get $3 if you hit that price target. but it's a. >> rough. >> and ugly day, scott. >> i mean, phil, you've seen the pictures all over the country too. in some major cities, the protests around tesla dealerships matched up against that stock chart, right?

>> and we've. >> talked. >> about this before, scott. you have to look at tesla two ways. one is. >> the automotive. >> part of the business, the ev part. >> of. >> the business. >> that is clearly facing headwinds and challenges. the reason that this stock ran up after the election is because you believed in elon musk's close proximity to donald trump, making things easier on the regulatory front. you believed in their ai exposure, robotics, autonomous vehicle technology. >> that's the reason. >> that the bulls are still. >> with tesla. >> to the extent that there are people who are saying, yeah, get past this sell off because we'll go back up at some point. >> yeah, 50% drawdown, though from the high. that's what's so jarring when you look at the chart. phil, thank you so much. phil lebeau on that case to steve kovach. now for what's going on with apple, which is seeing a big drop in its own right. steve. >> yeah. scott. and this. >> is a big. i whiff that we. >> found out about on friday. i'll put it the way that the citi analysts did this morning. they lowered their iphone estimates. this is after the siri eye launch that we were

expecting to happen this spring. that big upgrade to siri just didn't happen. they also removed it from their catalyst list that was expected to drive shares up a little bit. and this big upgrade for siri is now delayed until what apple says the coming year, i.e. the iphone 17 cycle. and there goes the iphone 16 bull case. so far, we've only had really minor artificial intelligence features on apple devices. >> up, and. >> now that stuff like the writing tools, there's notification summaries and the chatgpt integration with siri. but this was going to be the big one. controlling your apps with siri, reading what's on your screen, understanding your personal information. that real dream we've been having for so many years of a true digital assistant powered by artificial intelligence. that's not going to happen any time soon. now, we've already seen some of this reflected in iphone 16 sales so far this cycle. they were slightly down year over year in q1 and then overall sales in china, we saw down 11%. tim cook telling us at the time, partially blaming no artificial intelligence in some of those

markets for those misses. and by the way, scott, we're not really going to have clarity on when this big siri update is going to happen. until wwdc expected this june down in cupertino. and in the meantime, you just have all these artificial intelligence competitors openai, google, amazon just had its big alexa plus debut a couple of weeks ago. they're shipping these new ai advancements constantly as apple keeps lagging behind. so if you really are one of those ai believers that you think apple intelligence, this bull case that is going to cause people to run out there by their iphone 16, to use all these ai features that's now pushed out to september for the iphone 17. scott. >> i'm really glad you mentioned wwdc coming up because it was going back to last year's wwdc, of course, where this has really been a benefit of the doubt stock since then. the stock started going up when you and me were sitting together out outside of apple headquarters. it was given the benefit of the doubt of you'll see this is going to be great. >> it's going to be. >> awesome when it finally when

it finally comes delay, delay. now we're talking about another one. china has been an issue. we know from revenues. now we're worried about china and tariffs and the components. and it's all sort of coming to roost here. >> yeah it's all sort of coming to roost. and by the way, those ai features that we saw them announce, they seem pretty cool. this this big siri upgrade i'm talking about. this was supposed to be that big debut. in fact, they were so excited about it, scott. they were advertising it months before they even planned on launching it, saying your iphone 16, siri is going to get so much better. it's going to be able to do all this stuff. go buy one right now. scott. they pulled that ad from youtube last week. >> interesting, steve, thanks. that's steve kovach on the case for us with apple. seema mody. he's watching these momentum names kristina partsinevelos first though on nvidia, which is ugly today too. and it's kind of been that way. >> yeah, it has been that way. chip stocks as a whole though, have been taking a beating leading the nasdaq 100 drop to your point nvidia broadcom are the biggest chip drags from a point impact. and that's after

apple that steve just talked about nvidia hitting a six month low down what 6%. now interesting that melius research earlier this morning said they still like it as a buy. but they've lowered their price target to 170 from 195. some folks are even saying nvidia looks cheaper now because they talk about their forward p e ratio of 24 times, which is less than broadcom's, for example. you can see on your screen right now, but the pain really is just widespread. amd, qualcomm, tsmc, taiwan, semi, intel they're all down well over 4% asml really getting hit harder today. down almost 7% last i looked because of those tariff and export control concerns seven and a half now. and if you're wondering how bad this is historically during the 2020 covid crash, the nasdaq 100 actually fell about 13% from mid-february, about february 19th to early march. we're already down about 12% during that same exact time frame. so looking at the broader nasdaq, today's actually its worst day. you you talked about that scott.

two and a half years. it's lost more than half of its 2024 gains in just 25 trading days thus far. so the momentum for this drop is quite big. and then adding fuel to the fire. this ai sell off really comes not only amid recession fears. we're talking about regulatory concerns, tariffs, export bans, but also china's new ai agent menace that's turning heads. it's drawing deep sea comparisons and it's suggesting china is closing the ai gap despite these hardware limitations. so that's another negative catalyst for the group. >> all right christina, thanks for that. kristina partsinevelos. now to seema mody who's watching these momentum names euphoric on the way up and just downright painful on the way down. >> yeah a momentum unwind, scott. as goldman sachs said in its note to clients today that tariffs really the point of contention for investors. the wild card. without that certainty, questions are emerging on the size and the scale of these tariffs. and that's giving investors a reason to sell some of the big high fliers. take a look at cathie wood's ark holdings, a good gauge on momentum stocks in general down again today and off about 30% from its recent high.

palantir now trading below the average price target on wall street. and it got hit with a sell rating from jefferies analyst just last week. shares down another 12% today. the demand story for artificial intelligence remains strong. that was the big takeaway for morgan stanley's tmt conference last week, where the commentary was really reassuring from the hyperscalers, even in the wake of potential export controls. scott, in software, i just want to point out a couple of names, shopify down a lot. and of course, we're counting down to oracle earnings after the bell, one of the last software giants to report. and then applovin not getting a lot of love today and unwind here after the company was not added to the s&p 500 as previously rumored on friday, analysts at citi today coming out to defend the stock with a buy rating. not really helping scott. the stock is down about 13%. >> yeah, not at all sema thanks for that report. that's seema mody joining me now anastasia amoroso of ai capital. meera pandit of j.p. morgan asset management. and mike road of american century investments.

good to have everybody here. anastasia. you first. your thoughts. >> well, i think. finally scott, this is starting to feel like a wash out. this is starting to feel like a capitulation in the market. we've been waiting for the market to, on a broad basis to hit oversold levels, and i think we're going to get there today, if not today, most likely this week. and if you look at the mac, seven stocks that had been hit hit really hard today. they have already been oversold. so what we've seen scott is really a buyer strike. we've seen a lot of sellers come into the market from the systematic investors. hedge fund community has been selling. retail traders have essentially boycotted this market. so that's why we've seen this unwind. but fundamentally, scott, i will say recession fear mongering i think is what's being listed as a catalyst for this. but why do we have a recession all of a sudden? what indicators actually point to a recession? we have a relatively strong payrolls report. we have consumer spending that is still pacing 3 or 4%. so i don't actually see the reasons to fear a recession at this very moment. so what we need, scott, is a

circuit breaker, some sort of a catalyst to put an end to this. and i think we're going to get it this week or next. >> detox. detox is painful. i mean, the treasury secretary came on this network and used the word detox. that's what we're going through. the only question is whether it was a juice cleanse or you needed to go away for a little bit. this is painful. >> it is painful. >> but i would agree with anastasia. >> in that we haven't really seen tangible evidence that the economy is slowing, and we. >> are. >> starting with such a strong buffer. >> nine of. >> the last ten quarters we've had above trend growth. we look at profits expectations for 12% profit growth. if we get half of. >> that. >> that would be in line with a typical year of pretty strong profit growth. >> so there is quite. >> a bit of a buffer in the markets in the economy to absorb some of this. i think what has changed is the only thing to fear is fear itself. and there's a lot of that, especially around what are the pain thresholds. so there was an idea that the trump put would support the market at some point. there was also for many years a reliance on the fed put. but now if we're in an

environment in which the administration says we're willing to take a little bit of pain and disruption, and the fed says we still need to keep the eye on inflation above all, then that complicates matters in terms of who's going to swoop in and save the market. and if you layer on top of that, the tech selloff that we've had for so many instances in the last couple of years, tech has actually been pretty defensive. and that's not the case anymore. but we are seeing a genuine rotation into some of the other areas of the market that have previously been unloved. and i do think that that is somewhat encouraging. amidst all of this. >> secretary besson also said no, trump put and it's debatable as to what degree there's a fed put. yeah, if you have a slippage in the economy, but inflation remains above target with the unknown of tariffs on top of all of that with, you know, an early april reciprocal date, once the reports in maybe their hands are tied for a bit. what do you do. >> yeah it's tough. what is interesting to. >> support the. >> call that hey there's not a recession around the corner. if you look at high yield spreads they're still near all.

>> time tights. >> right. so not indicating. >> that there's. >> something brewing. >> right around the corner. >> and it widened a little bit. widened a little bit. >> still three. >> sort of calm as is where they. >> were. >> as they you would expect. >> but on a down thousand. point day, there's not a lot of panic in. >> that market yet. but you do have to remember. >> we. >> entered this year with the s&p 500 trading at 22. >> times earnings. >> that's versus 16. >> on average. >> so stocks especially. >> growth high growth momentum tech. >> stocks were priced for perfection. and now you have potentially slowing growth for you know slowing spend on phase one of i that mix with high valuation is a pretty tough environment. and so there is been a rotation. it's a really good thing to be boring right now. value stocks mid caps financials. >> financials ugly. >> yeah it has been ugly. but you know we see very high quality capital levels are still really strong at a lot of these regional banks. deregulation should help. and there's no

impact from tariffs not directly. so there are pockets of the of this market that actually the sell off creates some really good opportunities for active managers. >> at the most optimistic okay. you had calls that approached 7000 right. all right. in the market for 2025. on the idea that earnings were going to be robust and they were only going to pick up and make for make up for a lack of multiple expansion, which we sort of said, well, it's going to be really hard to keep doing that. you really need to have earnings. but now, if you're worried about a slowing economy. >> yeah. >> and or recession, you have the prospects of earnings deteriorating further, thus putting more pressure on the multiple, which was already viewed by some to be too high. if 22.5 times was too high, you don't want 16, which is the historical average, because if you put $269, which is the average street estimate, and you put a 16 times on that, you're going a lot lower than where we are now. >> that's right. i hope we're not going there. but, scott, to

your point, that's exactly what's been happening, is the market had to reprice the multiple and the market also had to shave off some basis points or percentage points from that 13% earnings growth. that was expected. the tariff uncertainty, potential inflation uncertainty, the dollar strength that we have seen, all of that shaves off some of that. and that's why all in. this is a harder market that we've been accustomed to. maybe we still get back to 6600 if the tariff news goes away or the noise goes away and it turns into tax cuts. but what what i would say, scott, is that this is a time to acknowledge that it's more difficult and it's a time to be discerning. and when you sit here and you assess the damage that's been done in the market, you start to think, what is it that you buy? do you go back to the mac seven? i don't think so. i think mac seven right now is not optimally positioned because they're not immune from the consumer slowdown. they're not immune from potentially overspending on ai capex. and so they're also not immune for some of the foreign pressures. so i wouldn't step into that. but i would think about some of the more defensive trades and also

domestically oriented trades, whether it's utilities, whether it's ai software, if you really tempted to buy something in the market right now, i think you look at the software, which is really 88% of the artificial intelligence. tam. so these are the types of things you have to think about and also be looking for that circuit breaker. maybe it's president trump coming back around and saying that, no, i don't actually think there's going to be a recession. maybe it's fed chair powell next week saying not only is the economy strong, but we've got to cut rates if we need to. so i think at this point the market is poised for some sort of near term positive surprise. >> powell the other day was pretty sanguine about where everything is. it's the reason why the market rallied back. he sort of saved the day when he gave that speech mid day for that day event here in new york, essentially saying the economy is in a in a good place. these might be one off price increases relative to tariffs. we just don't know. the textbook says look through it. investors aren't looking through it. when do they start doing that. >> we need to see a little bit more of a genuine reprieve from

the tariff dialog. and i think that's when you start to see investors look through it. i don't know that we're necessarily going to get there this year, because if we think about the timeline for some of these trade deals being renegotiated, there is quite a bit of runway there. so i do think we need to continue to center ourselves in what some of the fundamentals are doing, which right now this is a sentiment driven market. it's driven by who's saying what on what days as opposed to what the data is showing. >> well, i don't know. it depends what data you look at and what you believe. if you look at. now, i know when you mention atlanta, you know, gdp now people say, oh, you know, don't don't trust that data because it changes so much. and that's likely not to be what the final number is. that data is not good. right. some of the ism numbers haven't been good. some of the numbers around the consumer hasn't been good. so what number should we look at then? >> i don't not trust the atlanta fed gdp number. but if you look at the components of what's driving it lower, a lot of that is around net exports and seeing a massive amount of importing. that is not necessarily a reflection of actual demand. and

in fact, that is somewhat of a reflection of some of the tariff challenges that we're seeing. if you look at things like pmis, consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, that is really important because again, that fear can compound and change how businesses and consumers make decisions. >> it's been deteriorating. no. >> but we don't always see that an unconfident consumer results in lower consumer spending. >> which is what the fed chair himself said last week as well. >> that's not a very strong relationship. so while we want to continue to monitor this, it does take some time for some of these things to truly decay. and i want to see that in areas more pronounced that are their actual reflections of the economy, as opposed to how people are feeling about the economy, because that can change on a dime. >> i'm sorry you think that we're going to have a further rotation, as you said, into areas like small caps. i just i don't know how that happens. yeah. as long as you and me are having conversations like we are now. sure. how does that happen? >> yeah, well you have near term. it's going to be choppy. there's no question. we were at a conference last week. every ceo we met with, we'd asked,

what are you doing about the tariffs? and they said, i'm doing the same as you. my phone is here. i'm looking to see what the next post on truth social is. i feel like i'm ready to make the changes, but i don't know what the changes are going to be yet. okay, so for small caps, you're looking at an asset class that is trading 10% 10% below average right now. and the ultimate goal of tariffs, and really the ultimate goal of the trump presidency is to bring manufacturing back to the united states, which is a real tailwind for small and mid-cap companies in the us. sure. but you have to get a little bit further out over the next 6 to 12 months. >> a little bit further out. i mean, you can say you're going to bring all the manufacturing back here, which is a novel thought, and i think people would be happy to see all that. yeah, but you're not are you investing in that today? we're investing a plant tomorrow and you can't build it in, you know, six months either. >> but we're investing in good businesses that are trading well below average. that might be in a cyclical downturn that no matter what, whether we head into a recession tomorrow or not, no one knows. but these the

higher quality companies not only will survive a recession, but actually take market share. so we're okay buying really good businesses for the long term. >> we talked about tech, albeit briefly. we led the show with some of the upset mirror that we've seen in the nasdaq down more than 4% until you get some stabilization there. and it's not just the mega-cap names, all those names under the surface that felt so great, you know, shooting up palantir, applovin, vistra vertiv there's like 30 names and they are crashing hard. how do you get the nasdaq to stabilize until that stops? >> it might take a little bit of time because where we entered in terms of not only the run it's had over the last two years, but also valuations as a starting point. so i do think you need to see valuations come down a little bit, take a little bit of that indigestion on and you need to see a little bit of stabilization in some of those profits estimates as well, which have been coming down a little bit. and some of that forward guidance is not looking as

impressive as it has over time. you have seen some of these earnings surprises come down. so i think it's really about expectations coming down to fundamentals. but i think it's important to keep in mind that a lot of the fundamentals of these companies, of this sector broadly are still pretty strong. it's just that the expectations got too high. so as we start to see those merge a little bit and again, that fundamental backdrop still looking reasonable for a lot of areas of the sector. we might continue to see a bit of volatility here. >> the reason why i think part of the reason certainly why, you know, it feels and looks a little more painful than maybe many expected is because positioning was offsides so severely. and it was i don't remember a time where you've had that to this degree, where you come into a year feeling so, so much euphoria and excitement about this new administration that was pro-growth. and they're going to do a, b, c, d and e, and all of it is going to lead to a higher market and a stronger economy. now that may be the case later on in the year, but right now it isn't. so all those who got all bulled up

going into this year with these kinds of trades that are now unwinding, that makes the fall a little more jarring. >> it does. and maybe the extent of the fall is jarring, but i don't think the sequence is all that surprising. scott and we talked about this, that as exuberant as everyone was about tax cuts, the first thing that was likely going to come are actually tariffs. and that's exactly what we're getting. so but i think it is a natural rotation. also scott, after two years of max7 leadership, guess where people are taking their profits where they have them. and that's that's what those stocks represent. so i think it's a natural transition. you need to focus on parts of the market that may give you some insulation from that. and one of our highest convictions for the year was that we always like some exposure to private markets. but at this point in particular, having that private market exposure, whether it's in private credit or infrastructure or maybe some hedge funds, that could be a critical piece of your portfolio. >> private equity. i mean, you talk about those stocks have got crushed, too. we'll leave it there. anastasia, thank you to

you as well, mike. we'll talk to you all soon. with me now on the phone is jonathan krinsky of btig. just publishing a note as we began our conversation today. it's good to have you on. asked to reach out to you because you asked the question, if we're there yet and suggest that now's the time to buy. in fact, you say it's the worst day of the year, but we would dig in here. what does that mean? >> hey, scott. so, you know, if we take a step. >> back. >> coming into the year, the market had gone, you know, entire calendar year without. testing its 200 day moving average, we thought that a test was likely in the first quarter. we did test that last week. we've obviously gone below that today, but we're starting to get some washout signals that, you know, you typically see in the later innings of corrections, one being downside volume on the nyse. we're above 80%. that's the highest of the year. they're finally hitting the winners. you have a name like walmart which was a massive winner last year, down almost 5%. one of the biggest moves of the year. you have different factors like

cyclicals versus defensives, the most oversold since we've seen during covid. and then you have the vix curve which you know we look at spot vix versus second month futures. that spread has blown out to the widest levels of the year as well. so there's things that we didn't have in place over the last couple of weeks that you know now we're starting to see. and it lends us to you know believe. look if you were looking for a pullback at 6200, you know this is your spot in our view for a tactical. >> yeah i mean as you acknowledge to you know yes we could be oversold. but the market is so uncertain. and there are so many different headlines driving things that are still apt to do that that oversold can get more oversold. >> yeah. no that's that's certainly the case. and you know look we published a note yesterday thinking that, you know we were at a tactical bottom. and obviously we come in today and it's even even worse. so you know it's a tricky part of the market where you have to have a little flexibility. but again i think in the big picture, you know, if you were looking for a pullback, we're now 8 or 9% off the highs. and

look to be fair, we don't think this is the final bottom line per se. but we think a tactical rally three, four 5% from here makes sense. >> okay. this is your chance. those were your words jonathan. thank you so much for calling in. appreciate hearing your voice during this market coverage. renaissance macros jeff degraff joins us now. he also watches the key technical areas of this market. joins us now. do you agree with that? krinsky says quote, this is your chance. >> i think we're pretty close. we've done. >> several of the. >> things that we were hoping to see back from the fourth quarter. >> i mean, the. >> one. >> that i'll throw at you is beta was in the 99th. >> percentile of. >> of performance historically high beta versus. low on the 6th of december. and we warned about that. >> and now. >> we're the first percentile. >> and i. >> will tell you when we when we warn about it, we're thinking we go from the 99th percentile to something that's below 50%. you know, a lot of times you get down into the 10th percentile, but to go to the first is, is

pretty extraordinary. so that performance differential and it's all the names that you hit right. tesla and plantier and the like has really taken a. >> lot out of that. >> and i think that's the good news. there are a few other things that we're watching for that, you know. proprietary really. we look to triangulate some. >> type of low. >> regrettably, we're not quite there yet, but i think we've done, i'll call it 80% of the work and we'll see if today's final figures give us some some more of those. those touch points. >> is the vix spike telling you anything? i mean it's not an explosion like we saw with the unwind of the carry trade in the early part of last august. but it is a sharp move higher of late. >> it is the vix in isolation doesn't work that well i know people love it but mathematically it's not that great. what we'll do actually is look at the difference between the expectations of volatility. because really what the vix is nothing more than the equity market equivalent of credit. and so we'll measure those two things against each other. and the good news here is that

equities are far out pricing. the downside than what we're seeing from the credit markets. so that's a condition that we look for right now. we're in about the 95th percentile of that historically which is good news. but that's a good it's a good setup. but the vix in isolation we don't use but within the context of how we look at it with credit, it certainly is important and is supportive here. >> a couple downgrades of us equities today by various firms. you say your favorite markets right now are outside the us. in fact hong kong and china. tell me more. >> you know we've been bullish on on china and hong kong for at least six months now. it was pretty taxing there for a while to be frank, but it never did anything that looked to us to be, you know, troublesome from from that standpoint. so look, i think there's three things going for china and hong kong. the first is that the valuations, if you look at the quote unquote buffett indicator and apply that to hong kong and china, it's very, very favorable. market caps are below 100% of gdp,

which is good news. i think the sentiment there is great. it was, you know, quote unquote uninvestable for so, so long. and those for us aren't good enough. we need some technical affirmation around that. and we got that last year. we had the 50 day cross above the 200 day. we had escape velocity, which is this massive expansion in 20 day highs in those markets. so really bullish things taking place there. and we think that that's got a long runway to go probably, you know the next 2 or 3 years at least. >> let me ask you about the so-called death cross that we saw recently in the sma. i mean the, the chip stocks just can't find any footing. that's another big problem, isn't it? >> yes and no. i mean, keep in mind that the semiconductors were so overblown in terms of sentiment. we made a call on on those names back in, in late summer that they were deteriorating. we took a lot of heat for that. and it's proved to be right. i think you're seeing a lot of this sort of flow through from interest

rates. you're seeing it in home builders, you're seeing it in, you know, in those related types of names. certainly there's a cyclical component of, of semiconductors that, that we keep our eye on. and so it's uncomfortable. but i can't say that just because the semis are weaker, that's going to be bad for the market. i mean, one thing that's really been surprising, and i think it's very bullish globally is financials have been one of the leadership groups for most of 2024, particularly the back half of 2024. the european financials look good. the chinese financials look good. the japanese financials look good. it's really, really hard for us to draw a link that this is going to be something that's more nefarious and deeper and longer when you have the support of the financials, and i know they're correcting. but when we look at relative performance, when we look at some of the other things that help us to discern where the leadership is, they're still very, very good. and importantly, they're good globally. >> jeff, let's bring in mike santoli, our senior markets

commentator. he sat down next to me to help us make sense of what's going on here. what do you what do you think? i mean, we're a couple hundred points off the low in the dow, but the nasdaq is still down 4%. krinsky making the call that this is your chance to graph. as you just hear we're getting close. >> yeah i mean pretty much most of the things you'd want to see line up have done. so although i have to say there's always a few things that stand out. you could make the argument that treasuries as. >> well as the vix are. >> kind of underreacting a little bit here to what we're seeing in equities. part of that is that for much of the day you had one third of all stocks were up there. seemed like there were. >> places to hide. >> there's been enough dispersion to kind of keep the indexes from going into freefall. >> some of the action though, in the. >> last hour or so. >> really did look forced. so you started to. >> see the former kind of momentum. >> favorites really. >> get disorderly. on the downside, maybe. that means people are getting. >> cleaned out. >> so i think you're at that point down eight 9%. >> in. >> three weeks in the s&p. >> 500, where. >> unless you're really

expecting a near-term economic. calamity of some sort and you're, you know, you may always get some kind of fun blow up, we could hear about. >> some kind of stress event. >> in the capital markets that we just can't handicap right now. but that's just one of those. you don't bet on the black swan. you kind of put the probabilities in your favor. it feels like things are lining up for some kind of relief relatively soon. i know there's not a lot of we didn't spend a lot of time in this particular area of the s&p last year. >> i know some of these downside. >> targets have been hit were below the summertime highs. >> so some people. >> are saying, oh, down 2% from here. that's the real one. >> i mean you can't. >> be that precise about these things if. >> your game is. >> to try and put things you know slightly in your. >> favor tactically. >> i mean, there are some on the street today while, you know, tactically negative for the near term are still keeping their eye on the long term ball, trying to see the forest through the trees, the problem is when you have this type of scorched earth approach, the wrecking ball approach in some respects, like, you know, doge for example, has done things break right, things get broken, and it's a little

hard to pick the pieces up when they're shattered on the floor. >> if you are a. >> stock picker. >> it's very hard to see the circumstances under which, in the next few weeks, you're. >> going to be raising. >> earnings estimates for. >> your companies, right? >> i mean, yes, something can happen on the one off. and maybe the market has kind of discounted a little bit of softness. so you're okay there. >> on the valuation. >> but it's just difficult to. say that earnings where we expect them right now is actually. >> going to be. >> higher in a few months. that being said again, the market moves faster than the fundamentals. so at some point you get to a position where short term it looks like, hey, we're going to rally no matter what happens. it's kind of close your eyes and buy time at some point, as. >> opposed to believing. >> that therefore it's. >> going to be all okay. >> and we're going. >> back to the highs. >> jeff. >> i got a lot of targets that are a thousand points higher from here at minimum. >> look, we think the s&p closes somewhere around 6800 on the year. and i'm comfortable with that. we went into the year seeing the biggest number of strategists raise their raise their year end price target that

we'd ever seen in the history of our data, which is about 30 years old. and it just said to us, look, there's going to be a consolidation. it's probably going to be a decent year. that was about a 1,315% move from where we were, and we thought it'd be a much better year if we could buy an oversold condition in the first quarter, which we thought would happen. and so we're right in that zone. i think that can make for a really, really good year. one thing i would note, scott, you look at tesla today, the disaster that's happening in tesla. pull up the cdf charts, the credit default swaps. they're actually trading at the lowest lows in three years. so clearly there's some disconnect going on here. people are looking at the stock much differently than they're looking at the realities of the business. and i think there's a lot of that taking place. >> all right. i appreciate your time, jeff. thanks very much. that's jeff degraff renaissance macro. mike's going to be back with us, of course, too. as we approach the end of the day, the prospects of slowing growth and sticky inflation, putting the fed in a very tough spot, just as it was feeling pretty good about where things were heading from here. let's welcome in richard clarida. he's the former federal reserve vice chairman, now global economic advisor to

pimco. it's good to see you. thanks for coming on today. >> yeah, thanks for. >> having me on. what's the fed thinking right now? >> well, you know, i think the fed has a lot of experience looking at very volatile markets. i don't think that anything has changed relative to what we heard from the chair on friday. they think that they're in a good place. they think the economy entered the year strong. but the chair did correctly highlight there's a lot of uncertainty right now trade policy, tax policy, spending policy, immigration policy and geopolitics are all quite uncertain. and so i think markets are reacting to that. but i don't think the fed is fundamentally. doing anything different than we heard on friday from the chair. >> what happens if the economy weakens like the market fears. but inflation is still above target and we still have unknowns relative to tariff policy. what is chair powell do? i was. >> looking intently to see if the chair on friday would repeat what he has said at recent press conferences, which is that they

would cut rates if the unemployment rate went up, if the labor market or the economy slowed sharply. so i take them at their word. i think that they have they have a dual mandate. ideally they would they would like to cut rates with inflation back all the way to target. but i think they've made pretty consistently made the case that if we see a pronounced slowing in the economy and an elevation in the unemployment rate, that they'll begin to adjust rates lower, and i'd expect them to do so. >> so you're you're essentially saying that the fed put is alive and well. >> well, it certainly if you actually get a tangible. weakening in the economy, i don't think that that they would cut rates into a forecast of a weakening. i think they'd have to see it in the hard data. but yes, just based upon what the chair and others have said, i think if they see that in the hard data given right now where we are in inflation, you know, scott, on a on a 12 month basis, the inflation numbers are likely to continue to come down for the

next several months. and so i think, at least over this time frame through the first half of the year, if we do get that and let me say, i don't expect that that's not my baseline. but but in a scenario that you lay out, yes, i do think they would be cutting. >> what role does this market upset play in their thinking? >> well right now you know, markets are still quite close to all time highs. you know if i were still back in my old seat i'd be interpreting some of this in the stock market as perhaps, you know, a welcome adjustment to markets that maybe have been a bit frothy. and i think some of your previous guests were making a similar points. you know, obviously markets can go up and go down, but when you're close to all time highs and close to all time highs in terms of valuation, i think right now to them it looks like more of a reversion to maybe somewhat more sensible levels. again, profit. outlook for the year from what i understand is pretty solid. so i think that they'd also be focusing on that.

>> i'm wondering what you think of what the treasury secretary told our network late last week. the idea that there's no trump put the market has assumed, i think investors have assumed that if there's enough pain that the president, as much as people want to believe he pays attention to every movement of the stock market, is going to take a little bit of the pressure off to avoid a deeper sell off. how how do you how do you see that yourself? well. >> i certainly did take note of that, of that statement. you know, the tricky thing for the secretary and for policymakers is sometimes markets go down because the economy is going south. and so i think in his case, as with chair powell, they'll be trying to disentangle a signal from noise. but i would defer to the secretary if he wants to, to say there is no no trump, no trump. >> put what happens if they actually want the fed to be put in a position where they have to

cut rates. i don't think it's any shock to suggest that the president himself, because he said it himself, likes low rates. so what happens if they feel like they need to do this to force the fed's hand? >> well, i think in that scenario and again, i don't expect that. but i think in that scenario they would not succeed if it's not in the data. i don't think this is a fed that is inclined. and i think we heard that message loud and clear from the chair on friday in new york. this is a fed that's certainly not inclined to cut rates based upon a forecast of weakness. you know, maybe a parallel here would be useful. back when i was on the committee in 2019, you know, we had some tariffs, but we had a lot of trade policy uncertainty. inflation fell by half a point down to 1.5. the ism fell to 46. i'm telling you, if inflation falls to 1.5 and the ism is at 46, they'll probably be cutting. but i don't necessarily think that that that

the forecast of, of that is going to get them off, off hold. >> mr. clark, i'd like to bring in our steve liesman, our senior markets correspondent, of course, into the conversation. i'm not sure if steve, you heard rich says hello. it's good to welcome you. it sounds like mr. clarida doesn't see near the level of maybe conundrum that some have pointed to of a fed that has to make a choice between a weakening labor market but still elevated inflation. if the labor market weakens. mr. clarida says fed's cutting full stop. what do you think? >> i'm going to pause anytime. i think i have a disagreement with richard, who's taught me more about monetary policy than maybe any other individual, but we might have a slight semantic difference, and it may have to do with timing. scott, i'll give you an example. if you look at the fed funds futures market, there's a very interesting change between the probability

of a cut in may at 41%. it then doubles to june for 83%. it tells me the market is thinking about maybe the same thing i'm thinking about, which is the idea that the fed has to wait to see what happens with tariffs and how they work in the system. so, for example, you get a month's worth of tariffs in the system. they're going to raise the price level. you might want to wait a month to see if, for example, non-tariff goods are also going up. if that trend that richard talked about of lower inflation is still playing out and pulling down, i embrace the conundrum, maybe just a bit more than than richard does, because i think the fed would have a hard time saying we are cutting interest rates on a month when the cpi index went up by half a point or a point or whatever that number is going to be, i don't suspect that's a big difference with richard. i think

that what i've heard the fed say is this idea that we're going to look at which of our mandates is deviating more from our target and be more likely to address that one. so a big drop in jobs and growth. yeah, the fed addresses that. but if it's a closer call the fed would wait a little bit longer. >> rich. they don't say timing is everything for nothing. >> well steve, i think if you heard my entire comments earlier, you and i are on the same page. i'm not really getting into may versus june or july. what i did say is the powell i thought made very clear on friday in new york that they're in a good place. they don't have to react to a forecast on either variable inflation or the labor market. what i did, what i did say earlier in response to a question is if we see a tangible slowing in the hard economic data and a tangible rise in the unemployment rate, i think they will cut. and, you know, whether or not it's may or june or july, i think we are in a mode where a forecast of a slowdown or a forecast of a pickup in

inflation from tariffs is probably not going to get them off, off the dime. so i think it is going to have to start showing up in the hard data. and i think you framed it well. we're in dual mandate territory now where they may have to make a choice that at some point. but again, i was struck at how firm the chair was on friday in response to in the conversation with the neel kashyap and in the opening remarks about the fact that if you know, they think the labor market is in a good place, they wouldn't welcome softening in the labor market from here. so i think that's also going to be relevant. >> but but to be clear, richard, before steve, you respond, to be clear, you suggest that if that takes place and they cut because there was a material and meaningful deterioration in the labor market, there was an uptick in the unemployment rate, while at the same time, inflation remained above target, that they would not hesitate in your mind to cut. >> yeah, certainly along along what we're looking at for the rest of this year, as i said,

the 12 month numbers are going to be coming in pretty favorable. and it's going to take some time for the tariffs to pass through. and again, as we've all seen in the last couple of weeks, there are announcements and then there are deferrals. and so i think that's also going to be part of the assessment as as well, steve. >> yeah i'm not going to disagree with that. i just think there are some interesting things coming down that the fed has to figure out. i think the tariffs are one thing. i'm very interested in this idea, scott, that one of the targets of the trump administration is federal spending. federal spending is a circuit breaker that is typically there when the economy weakens. it's interesting this time around that it could be that federal spending is not only not a circuit breaker, but perhaps one of the causes of the weakness we see. so ultimately, that may prove richard more than right, in the sense that if the fed sees that the federal government is not going to be there with with a certain amount

of spending, that it's causing, some of the weakness they may feel they have to come in and be the so-called only game in town to help the economy here. so we're just going to have to watch how much this sentiment issue. and i agree not only with richard, but one of your earlier guests has said the recession is not in the data right now. it's in the sentiment data. it's not in the hard data. and you want to take a little bit of, i don't know what you call it, a pause here in getting too concerned about it. this issue, though, that the trump administration officials have said, we're not that concerned about what's happening in the market and that there will be some pain causes you concern. and, scott, i keep thinking about what the people on fast money or the brokers out there are telling their worried clients today, what is their story that says this is all going to be okay? it's a very tough story to tell right now. >> yeah. and richard, before i let you go, i guess i guess this is a real time look at why, when some have suggested that the fed

chair was pretty darn close, it certainly seemed like to declaring victory over this fight against inflation, that he was just reticent to do so because you just never know what's going to happen before inflation fully gets back to target. that jumpsuit is going to have to stay in the closet for a little longer. >> well. >> for sure. and again, as i said earlier, at least from your and other coverage, it looks like the earnings projections for the year are still quite solid. so some of what we're seeing is just a, you know, changing those price earnings ratios. i think ultimately stocks are going to come down to the earnings trajectory. >> so we'll leave it there. mr. clare, i can't thank you enough for your your time today. thank you steve, thanks for rushing to the camera for us too. good to add you to that conversation, steve liesman. bob pisani just sat down at our desk here at post nine. what's on your mind. what sticks out the most to you today. >> well sure enough what 45 minutes ago the vix went into backwardation. and this is a really good short term indicator. the vix hit 29. that's a little more than one standard deviation above usual.

and what happened is the vix yield curve. the curve for the vix. that is short term options. the ones that came out in the immediate future march and april that those options are trading at higher levels than those further out. that's called backwardation in the past. that's a very unusual situation. and in the past that is usually associated with short term tradable bottoms. and i'm very specific on this. i say short term. and mike, you've talked about this tradable bottoms because ultimately we don't know where this is going. once you start getting concerns about a slowing economy or even the r-word, the recession word, it is very difficult to call any bottom at all. so usually that kind of movement when your vix is in backwardation is associated with a short term tradable bottom. and sure enough when that happened the vix started, the market started turning around a little bit. >> also, the krinsky and degraaf calls. those are very. traditional metrics. tradable bottom. if we're not there we're getting close. one says we could be there. the other one, well we're awfully close. yeah. >> the problem here is you can't

call any real bottom because the when if you actually are in a real economic slowdown, we don't know. you just heard from steve. we don't know if we are or not. if we actually are. there are multiple legs down that happened in that. and particularly when the analysts start lowering their estimates, as we all know, the analysts are slower. the market moves ahead of the analysts. the analysts at some point, if they believe there really is an economic slowdown and they're hearing it from the ceos, they'll start lowering the earnings estimates and then you'll have another leg down. we don't know if that is actually happening yet. >> we went from a situation where the economic surprises rolled over. the market ignored it. >> right. that was happening for weeks. >> and so now i think we're almost swapped places where the market, if you look at it from an index level, perhaps. >> is exaggerating. >> the near. term or expected weakness. >> in the economy, whereas. >> before it was ignoring it, i was looking at the industrial sector earlier. >> xle. it actually peaked. >> and started falling well before the s&p 500 did. the last couple of days it's been outperforming. it went down as much as the s&p. but the s&p is now caught down to the point is

we've had this kind of rolling situation for a while. >> and you have. >> to be open to the. idea that just as in the last two years, january and. >> february. >> data were super hot, made everybody think the economy was racing ahead of us. now you've got jan, feb, a little bit soft. you just don't know to what degree you can. extrapolate that. so more open mindedness than making. a call that the market has it wrong here. but i do think that this complete purge in the mega-cap and a related i and momentum names has been this massive exacerbating factor that isn't really about macro, it really isn't. it's mostly about kind of positioning. >> it's about the crowding. >> of the market. and, you know, it's initial conditions. we started out with an expensive, highly concentrated market. this is the way the market is dealing with it. >> the market for sure is pricing in more than just tariffs here. i mean, in a worst case scenario, we've been playing passing around these numbers for a month now. full implementation of massive amounts of tariffs. you're talking about six seven 8% reduction in earnings. that's very significant. but the s&p is

already down today 9% from its recent high. it's already pricing in like maximum maximum tariffs. and we don't even know if that's going to happen. of course the president could change that at any moment. this is what makes people a little crazy every day. >> i mean, the market was already sort of screaming to you defensive. it's a more defensive tone. health care and staples. if you're wondering why, especially healthcare, woke up. in large part, it was because people started to get a little more defensive before the worst of what we were seeing on the screens over the last few days started taking place. >> they haven't been selling the defensive like look. kimberly-clark new high today. some of the a lot of various consumer stocks were hitting new highs. so those are holding up the consumer staples sector today is close to an historic high. so in a sense, mike, you could argue this isn't the bottom because they'd be selling those if this was really. >> serious. actual desperate get me out at any cost. yes for sure. but also the cyclical. >> trade has just left the country. the cyclical.

>> trade is in in germany. it's in the rest of europe. it's in it's in asia. so it's. >> not as if. >> everything is completely synced up globally in terms of where we are at least perceived, where we are in the cycle. >> all right, mike, you stay. bob, thank you for rushing up here. appreciate you. let's talk more about the financials getting hit hard yet again today leslie picker follows that money for us here at cnbc and joins us now. just when you thought maybe it was going to stop it hasn't. >> yeah. no scott great point. it's just another rough day for the financials. the banks specifically. you look at morgan stanley down nearly 7%. wells fargo down 7%. goldman down five. city down five jp morgan bank of america also getting hit hard. now you all were talking about kind of the impact on analyst revisions. and when we might start to see those relative to, you know, expectations for the economy. well the banking sector is a perfect example of this. and wells fargo analyst mike mayo has a perfect summation for how this downward bias actually does have an impact into near term

earnings. the first, he says, is that policy uncertainty can delay lending and capital markets acceleration. this is this idea that if there's uncertainty about how things play out in washington, that may kind of create this chilling effect over doing big m&a and ipos, as well as big financing deals. second, he says that the expectation of a greater chance of recession can lead to reserve bills. that has a direct impact on earnings as well. and the third thing he notes, is a lower forward curve can reduce the degree of benefit from fixed asset repricing. this plays a role in a couple of companies, namely bank of america, which was set to really benefit from that. so in those three ways, the market activity as well as the psychology is having a direct role potentially to the earnings. i mean, obviously it's still kind of midway through the quarter, but just something to note as we think about the overall psychology and how it plays a real role in the accounting here. >> unbelievable moves, leslie, in private equity names over the

last month trading like high valuation growth stocks i mean down is kkr 27% over that period of time. aries is down 26%. the losses today alone yet again are just startling to look at. you just don't see stocks like this trade like that very often. >> it's exactly right, scott. a lot of these firms have a portfolio of kind of private equity buyout type companies. they are aging. and there's some question marks surrounding whether they've actually took the marks that they needed to. years ago when the market did sour, you know, when rates were rising. and now kind of what that looks like on their balance sheets, whether they're seeing significant losses, at least on paper for those companies. and then on the other side, you have private credit, which mike and i talked about earlier today, which if there is a worsening picture for the economy, this asset class has just grown tremendously in size and scale.

so a lot of people have been warning about a deteriorating economy and what that means for the asset class and therefore what it means for the private, private, publicly traded companies that hold a lot of exposure to this. >> yeah, blue owl looking at it right now, down 4% today, 21.5% over a month. les appreciate you. thank you. that's leslie picker kristina partsinevelos now who is watching the key stocks today as we inch towards this close christina. >> well scott let's take a look at novo nordisk. the shares are sinking right now over 9% after the pharmaceutical giant released disappointing trial results for its developmental weight loss drug. this would be kagoshima. it helped obese or overweight patients drop about 16% of their weight after 68 weeks, compared to a previous estimate of 25%. so a difference there. and that's why you're seeing the stock down almost 10%. meantime, redfin shares soaring right now. so a bright spot after rocket companies said it would acquire the real estate listing platform in a $1.75

billion all stock deal. the deal will connect redfin's nearly 50 million monthly visitors with rocket's suite of mortgage products. and that's why you can see redfin shares up 69%. but rocket, on the other hand, is down 15% and the bell is about to ring, which is why the screen kept changing behind me, because they always do this show around this time. >> yeah, well, we have about six minutes to go yet. christina. thank you. that's christina partsinevelos. we're now in the closing bell. market zone. senior markets commentator mike santoli is still here to help us break down these crucial moments of the trading day. taniya mchale is watching the sell off in bitcoin and crypto. and seema mody is looking ahead to oracle earnings out in overtime. energy's green as you said. you know utilities are green. but that's about it along with the vix which is up 20% at 28. >> yeah under owned and somewhat more stable areas of this market. look it's one of those things you can never quite put a pin in it in real time. but it did seem the selling intensity

from like 230 eastern into 330. that's the margin call window. it did seem to get a little bit frenzied and you had a bit of. >> a crescendo. >> there does not mean we can't. >> open down tomorrow. >> and still have some reckoning to do. i will still say that the treasury market, it's not exactly getting this massive. >> safety bid. yes, yields are. >> down, but the ten year is still above where it was a week ago. so you'd want to see some other things. you know, it's not the fattest pitch you ever saw in your life. but you know, you don't usually take a 9% decline. >> in the s&p 500 over three weeks. >> and say nothing's going on, but you can at least start to make the case that we're in the overshoot phase in the short term. >> all right. i don't know whether, you know bitcoin tanya has decided it's done going down. but it's been volatile. and it was below 80 the last time i checked 80 k that is. >> it might not be done going down scott a brutal day for crypto prices. bitcoin at a three month low. like you said under 80,000 almost 30% off its record. and look at crypto stocks down double digits. coinbase pacing for its worst

day since july 2022. and coinbase and robinhood, both almost 50% off their 52 week high. a lot of bearishness for traders, but investors are quite used to these large pullbacks. crypto, of course, not immune to these recession fears, and it's still without a clear crypto specific catalyst. there isn't much on the immediate horizon to temper growing concerns about an economic slowdown. many, of course, were hoping that that bitcoin reserve we got more details on last week might be that catalyst that brings more buying pressure into crypto. but as we discussed, a lot of disappointment on that front. so while the regulatory tailwinds for crypto are still intact, it's still got a good long term story. traders are refocusing on the monetary policy, which is what governs crypto prices for most. for the most part before the election. >> scott, thank you very much for that report tonight. mchale. now to seema mody with a look ahead to oracle. those earnings come in just a little bit and overtime. >> and scott you remember it was late january when oracle founder larry ellison he stood by president trump softbank's masayoshi son and openai sam

altman to unveil the stargate project a massive data center project. oracle shares initially shot up but since then have waned and now are negative. on the year. when the company reports tonight, investors will want more concrete answers on the return on investment for stargate and the scale at which its cloud infrastructure business is growing. above 50% is the running estimate. plus whether a deal with tiktok is in the cards. still, the chinese app's most important u.s. partner. that deadline is approaching, and we are watching shares of oracle sell off, along with the broader tech sector, down about 4% ahead of that print. >> scott simon, thank you. we'll see what happens. we'll look for you then. that's seema mody dollar. i've been watching the dollar. yeah. because that's been on a i don't know if you want to call it a freefall, but it certainly has been weakening pretty substantially. >> it did. yes. >> although it has kind of. >> kind of halted. >> that process a little bit here today. it does seem as if it's gaining a little bit of the benefit of, of whatever sort. >> of safety. >> bid is out there. also keep in mind we got nothing new on

tariffs today. this is much more about you know, kind of the dam broke last week in terms of selling and in terms of the perception. out there that economic pain comes before gain. but it's not necessarily about a lot of this global macro stuff, equal weighted s&p. i'll point to it again. it's not percent and a half on the day. it's outperforming by well over a percentage point. today. it's basically flat on the year. so you wanted a broadening market. this is sometimes what it looks like which is be careful. one third of the market that is seven stocks seven expensive stocks with lots of like hopes and storylines embedded in them have unwound and left you know the rest of the market to have to try to fend for itself. >> a lot of barnacles hanging on to those big, big fish to right there. they're continuing to look pretty bad. >> exactly. and any way you slice. >> it. >> i mean, if you have an outright recession call, then the market. >> is not. >> at the right price. it still has more to go down. but if it's not, then what we're talking about is a huge reset. taking

the s&p back to mid year levels of last year, really resetting sentiment as well. positioning. institutional positioning is definitely more underweight versus the recent years average. so all this stuff is kind of coming into place unless some kind of, you know, real inflection point has been reached in the underlying economy. >> it's a great point you make. it's the if right, the uncertainty with the if you don't want to be playing guess the earnings number, then guess the multiple. and if you're going into a recession, the earnings multiple, the earnings number is probably too high and the multiples too. >> but essentially that's kind of the game. but sometimes the market gives you the perception that a lot of it is very predictable, or at least the market's willing to pay up for perceived predictability. that's the story of mac seven, really over the last. >> several years. it's the game. but if the game changes faster than you expected it to, it's hard to adapt in a really short period of time. mike, thanks for helping us get through here. the bell's going to ring in just a moment now, and it's going to ring out a lot of red. we'll be

off the worst levels, at least for the dow, which was down more than 1100 points at the low. it's still going to be down around a thousand. >> nasdaq. >> the real pain. point is looking at a loss. of more than 4%. >> more than 700 points drop. >> in. >> the dow. >> to overtime. >> now for. >> sean for. >> that bell. >> marks the end of. >> regulation. mercifully maybe. pl corporation ringing the closing bell at the new. >> york stock exchange. >> silicon labs doing the honors at the nasdaq stocks closing off the lows. but it was another big sell off to start the week, especially for big tech. with the nasdaq tanking, 4% dragged down by a tesla, palantir, apple and nvidia, the s&p 500 finishing lower by more than 2.5%, the dow dropping just over just under 900 points. that's the scorecard on wall street, but winners stay late. welcome to closing bell overtime i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today and we're going to be all over this sell off.