austin, texas. and once again, what a day for the markets. believe it or not. it could have been worse. the dow down a little less than 900 points. at one point it was down close to 1200 points. but there's a lot more trading to do this week. that'll do it for overtime today. fast money starts now. >> live from the. >> nasdaq market site. >> on a. >> day where the. >> major indices. >> hit. >> their lowest. >> levels in nearly six months. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. >> stocks sinking to start the week. >> the nasdaq now. solidly in correction territory. the s&p. >> 500 closing below. >> its 200. >> day moving. >> average for the first time in 16 months. the dow shedding. >> nearly 2000. >> points so far this month. >> how much further is there. >> left to. >> fall and. >> how do you protect. yourself against the drop? plus, delta's disappointing guidance. what's got the stock on the move after hours and how it's playing out for the rest of the travel trade. and we're watching oracle shares after its latest earnings

report. crypto crashing as bitcoin's drop below 80 k takes the rest of the digital asset space down with it. and the chair master lays out a couple stocks that might be buying opportunities after this selloff. i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight carter braxton worth dan nathan, guy adami and julie biel. we start off with a sea of red on wall street. the dow dropping nearly 900 points for its worst day since december. the s&p 500 down nearly 3%, hitting levels not seen since back in september. and the nasdaq, the worst performing index today, down nearly 5% at lowe's, the worst day for tech since the fall of 2022. continued fears about a potential recession and the uncertainty around tariffs weighing on the markets. it was a day filled with massive moves in the mega-caps. apple losing $175 billion in market cap today. tesla giving back all of its post-election gains on its worst day since 2020. it is now worth less than half of what it was at its mid-december peak. nvidia hitting its lowest level sinc september, losing $1 trillion from its high, and meta giving up all of its gains and then some from that 20 day

winning streak. overall, every single mag seven stock is now in correction territory. collectively, they have lost three quarters of $1 trillion in value in just the last two trading sessions. so what do we do here? >> guy superlatives are continuing. i mean it's fascinating. we've said for a while now, at least for me incorrectly, has been that there are a lot of headwinds out there. but the market was looking past them for whatever reasons. but despite the fact that the market seemingly made new highs every day, those headwinds weren't going away. as a matter of fact, some of the concerns were actually getting worse. >> and what. >> we said was the market will have less and less room for error and volatility was going to be a story. well, you're seeing that now i don't know if it was tariffs i don't know if it was a fear. of a slowdown. but it just goes to show you when you're trading at the valuations that we're trading at everything continues has to continue to go right. and it's not in terms of the downside. it feels to me like we didn't have capitulation today. people will say it was panicked. i didn't see anything panicky about it.

yes the vix is elevated. it will stay elevated. panic will come in the form of a huge volume day, where we may be flush early and spend the rest of the day rallying. that did not happen today. >> what do you think? >> well. >> i mean, maybe just put it all in context rather than. >> in. >> my opinion or anyone's. we know that. >> the. >> market has drawdowns, sell offs, drops, declines, corrections. you choose your nomenclature. as of now, we are. down 9.5% from the peak and it's. lasted 13 sessions. if you look. >> at all instances. >> going back to 1927, where the s&p has had a 5% plus decline, the average client is about 11.25, the median is about eight and three quarters, and it takes place over. >> 30 sessions. >> on average. so this is sort of normative. >> now at. >> the index level, we know the market is down what, 4.5% for the year. but the average stock is still up. and more stocks in the s&p are up than down, which would get around to say, is this nothing and nothing's. >> happened or there's that much more to come. >> i would go with the latter. >> there's more to come. yeah, i. would just say that, you

know, the trump trades, they started. >> to reverse a while ago. >> and it started in around. >> the time that we. >> started dialing up the. >> you know. >> the rhetoric. >> in and around. >> the trade war. >> and one of the. >> things that kind of strikes me, and we. >> talked about. >> this a lot, that the first trump. administration seemed. >> to be very. >> focused on the. >> stock market. when you think about how. >> they went. >> about some of the economic. >> agenda that they wanted. >> in the first one, they went after tax cuts first. and they. got tax cuts, and it juiced. >> the. >> stock market. >> it juiced the economy. >> then they got into. >> the trade war. >> which really didn't cause. >> too much trepidation. >> in markets. >> not until. >> we got to. >> the end of 2018. when we had a growth. >> scare, when we also had rates. >> going higher. so if you. >> think about what. >> they did now. >> it's a bit of an own goal. for all intents and purposes, no one knew how this was going to play out. i don't think they thought it was going to play out. i hear a lot of people talking about, well, they wanted to tank the economy. they wanted to tank the stock market to get things going higher. there's no way that is true. i keep hearing that and it's probably what you

just pointed to yourself. >> no i didn't. guy's raising his hands. i was. >> just high. guy. >> did you want to interject? >> i'm waiting for the camera person to show me. raising my hand, he said own goal, and you just didn't even. you don't know what that is. and until earlier today, i didn't know what it is. >> but apparently. >> it. >> was in. >> like the premier league. in football, if a defender were to kick the ball. >> into his. own net, okay. >> that's an own goal. it's something like you've. >> made, you've. >> made a. >> mistake and it hurts your own team. is that accurate? >> correct. and it could be a header also. but i guess my point is when you think about what's going on here, you know, we've been talking about this for a couple of weeks. they're playing chicken with the us economy, which means that they're playing chicken with the global economy. and when you think about the potential for, you know, i guess the idea of weakening your northern neighbor or weakening the economy of your southern neighbor, or weakening the comedy, the economy of europe, it just doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense. so the market has gone down in front of that. yields have gone down initially. look at the way the dollar traded. so what's going on in the stock market i would argue with guy a little bit. i see a lot of panic and a lot of stocks that possibly

overshot to the upside that were trading at valuations that nobody could really justify, except folks were willing to justify because of the expected growth or so. so to me, i think the s&p probably has a little more room to catch up. they tried to rally it. at the end of the day, it wasn't particularly that impressive. if you're looking at some of the names that led to the downside, they didn't really bounce much. >> and we want to go. you want to go to julie, i get it, but i'm going to push back on dan's pushback and. >> say in terms of no panic, there is panic. >> when stocks go up in levels that we've seen stocks go up the way they go, nobody talks about panic. then they say how the fundamentals are in place and the market is behaving properly and everything is fine. so we can see panic to the upside the same way you can see it to the downside. so i would submit i have seen panic to the upside where people feel like oh my god, i'm going to miss it. this didn't feel like not yet, at least to the downside. >> they call it something else. they call it fomo. and that's exactly what fueled the i trade. >> listen, we saw this in palantir. we saw it in applovin. we saw it in cars. they saw it

in. >> fundamental case for every single one there, which was supposed to be sort of defensive. right? correct. the espn was going to be intact, julie, because it was going to bring massive efficiencies and cost savings, and nobody wanted to be left out on it. here we are now with the with the air coming out of this trade or gone maybe. >> there's a. >> very clear reason why no one likes a very narrow market. right. and it's exactly what's happening right now. you suddenly have a strong correction, and it makes everyone started to look around and say, can this work without the strength of the ai companies that have been driving so much of the growth? and i think the real challenge is it could if the economy were in good shape. and to me, that's a really debatable question, because not only do we have just the little whisperings of challenges in the labor market, not only is manufacturing been really difficult, but now you have a lot of boardrooms, lots of ceos that are feeling very uncertain

and very unwilling to make bold capex plans, bold hiring plans, bold investment plans. that really constrains what's going to happen in the economy, right? it's not the loss of jobs that really, really paralyzes demand. it's people's fear of losing jobs. it's a much broader impact. and i think that's kind of what we're starting to see early on. >> yeah. and it starts at the i mean, the federal government level. i mean, imagine all the contractors and government employees who are concerned that their job is not going to be there tomorrow. and that's just the tip of the iceberg. i mean, see, lisa was making an interesting point today about the economy, and that is usually in a slowdown. you have the ballast of government spending to help the economy along. and this time they are doing just the opposite. they want to slash government spending. >> you know. >> yes, that is correct. i didn't see that. but he's spot on and i'll say this as well. you know, the health of the consumer. and we hear it over and over again. if you watch and it becomes sort of monotonous and it just becomes background noise at a certain point because everybody's convinced the consumer is in great shape. i am

not convinced of that. and i'll say this, you know, when the consumer gets scared, it's typically they're scared because something happens in the market not to suggest that everybody owns stocks that's on it. but when they leave tonight on the 6:00 evening news, with big sell off in the stock market, people take notice and they start having the conversations. should i buy that coffee? should i go on that trip? and that's when spending stops on a dime. >> yeah. the other thing about the policy stuff, if this is really what caused the acceleration of the downside over the last couple of weeks or so, it's like we saw this last, well, i guess over the last month or so, threats of tariffs, you put the tariffs in, then you pull them back. then you get the stock market down. let's say it's down 15% in a week, week and a half. then you basically say, you know what. just kidding. you know it's just not a good way to message about an economy. to guy's point that's kind of already on the brink of slowdown. and you know, this also brings me back to 2019. you know, we had this big snapback after the big q4 drop. i think it was about 20% or so. the fed had to pivot, right. and i keep hearing if the tools in their

toolbox don't work in a stagflationary environment, at least that's what a lot of economists or strategists are saying is like, this is the exact wrong time to mess around with an economy that's already starting to weaken, which is what happened in 2019, which is probably why when we actually had a black swan event, we've never had a black swan event, at least as long as i've been in the markets. why we dropped so quickly? because again, the fed did lower interest rates, did zero. we did have fiscal spending, but it didn't matter until people came to their senses a little bit after about a month or so. >> well, citi is out with a new note telling investors to stay hedged and be patient. stuart kizer is behind the call. he's the firm's head of equity trading strategy. you must have been busy today. what were the incoming calls like. >> yeah you. >> know i think it's a lot. >> of a lot of what we all discussed. you know the positive i guess where people are trying to ask is. it time to buy the dip. >> so i think that means. >> you know. >> you know. >> to carter's. >> point, you've pulled back enough where people are kind of answering that question. our view. >> is. >> no. it is not time to buy that dip.

>> mostly because this. >> has been has been about the economy. >> it has. >> been about trump policy. >> but in the end. >> what's really impacted the market is just position disruption. and the stocks that are under pressure are the popular longs. the winners from the. >> last 12 to. >> 18 to 24 months. and those stocks were down more than 5% today. in our. >> measure, they're. >> down over 20% in the last month. >> and until you see some. >> stability in that part of the market, i wouldn't confidently want to step in and buy the dip here. >> you know, when you think about, again, the safety trades as you were talking about, a lot of folks felt really comfortable in the mag seven. they felt really comfortable in the banks. you know, some of the flows that you're seeing. going back to what mel just asked you, what seems a little i don't know if i was going to say scary. i don't mean that. but like if you think there's lower lows that happen, what do you think leads to the downside here? is it like financials? because to me, i'd be more worried about that at some point. this mag seven you know secular shift that as far as you know generative that will get back on its horse. it needed some froth to come out of it. but the banks kind of worry me here. >> yeah, i think i think the. >> banks and. >> then the power generation story or two that we've got like. >> a close. >> eye on because those.

>> are not retail trades. >> you know, to your. >> point, eventually retail is going to want to own apple or meta or tesla at levels that are 20, in tesla's case, 50%, you know, below peak. >> but the banks and. >> powergen, those utilities i think those are clear institutional trades. >> so i think one. >> day last week we saw the banks down about 3%. definitely got our attention. a couple of. >> the popular. >> utilities were down double. digits last week as well. >> so i agree banks. >> and powergen are two. from an institutional perspective. i keep an eye on it. again, they have not shown the stability in our view that you need to be confident to put capital at risk right now. >> so. >> stuart, at the institutional. >> level. >> of course the individual has choice free will. you can sell. >> you can buy long. short can you. but the big. >> long only. fully invested all time not allowed to hold cash. that's that's. >> the game. >> and they're playing from the same playbook as. >> always the s&p. >> pure value index since the markets peaked. >> on the 19th. >> is down 1.2, whereas the pure growth is down almost 12. 1100 basis points of spread. for those who have to play. what are you saying or recommending in this environment? look, i think the. >> growth value also has a lot to do about positioning, also about what's going on in interest rates. i would. >> say i think long only have

two concerns. number one is if you look at late january or early february. >> you got that. >> really bad. >> university of michigan sentiment. >> print that kicked. >> off three out of four weeks with net outflows from etfs and passive mutual funds. >> so to your point. >> long only has to hold. but they've also seen some money being pulled out, which means they've had to contribute as well. generally speaking, i'd rather. be in growth than value here. >> logic being that. >> you. >> have three broad outcomes, you have a. >> hard landing. >> i think growth outperforms value in a hard landing higher. for longer. i think growth probably outperforms at a higher for longer environment. >> you really. >> need this immaculate sort of re-acceleration in the economy to get small cap and value working. so just in our view, like probability adjusted, you're more likely to be happy in growth and value. but to your point, it has not worked year to date. and i wouldn't blame people for being skeptical. >> stuart, i'm sure the people sitting around saying, you know what, the market sells off enough. the fed is going to bail us out like they have over the last 20 or so years, which maybe they will. i don't have a view, but what i will say is we have cpi on wednesday and if that were to come in hotter than expected, it backs them into a

corner that they're already in. so maybe speak to the importance of the number this wednesday. >> yeah, i agree with you 100%. >> i mean we talked. >> about it earlier in the year. the risk for the fed is that, you know, if you are. >> cutting. >> government spending at the same time you're introducing tariffs, you create create pressure for the fed on both sides of the dual mandate. >> so the number. >> is very important. if you remember back to early february, you had had you miss inflation. expectations had ticked up, average hourly earnings had ticked up. and that made that inflation print really, really powerful. we got past that okay. >> so the fed will be the fed will be watching this. they've been very methodical i think about. >> communicating that inflation risk is not a near-term concern. >> so i think. >> you'd need a pretty hot print, especially after average hourly earnings got revised down. >> that said options market is pricing. you know, 1.4% move on. >> cpi market's. >> telling you it's important. to your. >> point for the fed it's important. so it matters. oddly. and i may never say this again in my career i think you might be more important than the than the cpi this week though. >> are there any levels on the s&p 500 that are sort of witching levels in your view, whether it be levels that you're watching, levels that hedge

funds are watching, levels that ctas are are, you know, exposed to. >> look, i. >> mean, ctas are. max short across. >> all the us benchmarks right now, which actually, to some degree, might read as a positive sign that systematic supplies come in. again, i wouldn't put a number on the level at this point. >> to me, it's show me those. >> core long positions that are just getting eviscerated. >> show me that those. >> have stabilized. and regardless of the level, i think i'd be more positive about kind of reentering the market. i'm sure the big round numbers will matter. i'm sure there's a technical. >> support. >> but we're already through the 200 day. that was obviously the big level, which we defeated already. >> so not. >> a level in particular, but more what is going on internal to the market. do these momentum trades, these tech trades, these sort of hedge fund favorites find their footing or not? >> stuart great to see you. thank you stuart pfizer of city water levels. you're watching mr. technician. >> yeah. >> well i. >> mean the truth is there are no levels of support to speak of. >> there are no levels. >> no, no support is where a lot of transaction took place. then you move well above it and you come back to it. we've just been ascending. and so as you roll in principle, there's no great

level to identify. but on a day to day basis and you see that intraday there's always this desire to hey maybe it's overdone and. >> we. rally off the low. >> the net effect is. >> again remember. >> the average stock. the performance of all s&p 500 stocks is still up on. >> the year. >> and so is the median. and the aggregate itself is down only four and a half. not much has happened. >> right. >> how are you feeling i mean for him to say just wait. yeah. >> well we're going to talk about later. like signs that maybe you've seen capitulation. so i don't want to get ahead of that. but i'll say, you know, it doesn't feel like it's happened yet. and people say, what are you talking about? the market has been selling off and people aren't used to it. they're not the complacency that's been around. the investing in the trading community is such that it's made a lot of sense. you've been rewarded to be complacent. but i've said for a while now it's seemingly starting to be correct that volatility is going to be a thing this year that people have not experienced. it's been a one day event until recently. now we're two weeks into this and i still think it goes higher from here. >> yeah. so if we look at the

nasdaq 100, which is interesting to me because headed into the bear market of 2022, no one knew what was going to be a bear market. let's be really clear. but once we were really in a very, you know, systematic sort of sell off period, you know, to me, i kept on hearing that the prior leaders of the bull market weren't going to be the leaders on the way out, the way that the indices are constructed. there's really no other way to do that. so i'm in the same mindset right now. and if you look at the q-q-q, you know, to me, we had it down 38% at its lows in 2022. right now it's down what, 1,112% or something like that. but a lot of the major components are down a lot more, which speaks to what carter just said. there's plenty of stocks that are acting okay, but you're taking the froth out of the market. i think the q-q-q is the way to play on a sustained selloff. you just keep dollar cost averaging it in in two years. you'll be pretty happy about that, because we haven't had a projected bear market since 25 years ago, and i just don't see it likely to happen. when you consider the names that have been leading the economy as far as capex and investment and the ones who are

basically concentrated in the major indices. >> also, if you put it in the context, of. >> course, nothing has. >> happened to the downside around the world. the stoxx 600. >> is up on the year. >> the dax is up. and so if you saw true panic, you'll start to see it happening in things that have held out. >> i mean. >> the correlation between the msci all country world. >> index and. >> the all country world index ex the us. >> is about 85%. >> so you're not going to have a situation where the s&p stops. >> dropping 1520. >> and the rest. >> of it's just. >> going up. at some point. >> they succumb. >> to that would be something to watch for. >> all right. >> meantime shares of delta sinking after the airline slashed its q1 guidance. our phil lebeau just spoke with ceo ed bastian in the last hour. he joins us with more on this. phil. >> melissa, this is guidance for the first quarter where delta has brought down its expectations and brought them down substantially, but they are not changing their full year earnings guidance. so for the first quarter, here's the new guidance earning 30 to $0.50 a share, previously expected to earn between 70 and $1. so they've cut it basically in half revenue up 3 to 4%. previously

expected it to grow 7 to 9%, operating margin 4 to 5% versus the previous guidance of 6 to 8%. essentially, they're seeing softness in domestic demand. here is ceo ed bastian. >> we saw companies start to pull back in terms of corporate spending started to stall. consumer spending started to stall, largely domestic, largely in the close in. but it was also exacerbated, as you know, the uncertainty that's out there and consumers in the discretionary business do not like uncertainty. and while we do believe this will be a period of time that we pass through, it is also something that we need to need to understand and get to calmer waters. >> we asked ed bastian if there are industries where they're noticing particular weakness. he's pointed out aerospace and defense, automotive, entertainment. you know, they have a big hub out in southern california. so clearly they've had a lot of pressure out there, not just because of that, but they also had wildfires out there. bottom line is this they

are seeing weakness in the first quarter. but melissa, what's interesting is that we're also noticing all of the airline stocks under pressure today down anywhere between essentially four and a half to more than almost 11% for united airlines. and tomorrow, the ceos of american southwest united, they will all be giving presentations in new york city at the j.p. morgan industrials conference. you can bet the number one question that the analysts are going to have is, what are you seeing in terms of the economy right now, and what do you expect to see for the remainder of this year? >> phil, thank you, phil lebeau. and of course, this after our slide is a continuation of the slide that we've already seen with the markets going down overall, julie, there are real questions about whether or not people take cruises with book. you know, hotels and airplane tickets. et cetera. >> yeah, i think it's really an indication that when you have this level of uncertainty, kinds of future planning like trips and things suddenly gets really put on hold. and, you know, we

all learn that we can do a lot of our business online via zoom. and i think there's a real recognition by a lot of companies, hey, let's just let's just pump the brakes because we're really not sure what the world looks like. and let's conserve a little bit of cash. and that's fine for that company that really preserves its earnings power. the problem is, is that just ripples through the rest of the economy. and it has long term impacts on business confidence and just the willingness to put capital out. and i just i worry a lot because that becomes a little bit of its own self-fulfilling prophecy. and that's the real risk that i think we have in front of us. >> it's interesting to think that consumer confidence has turned that dramatically in, you know, since the last earnings report that delta gave. >> right. and what's even more interesting, it did that with the market basically being at an all time high and only starting to roll over over the last couple of weeks. so now let's see where it is. and you know, this guidance i mean basically it cut first quarter guidance in terms of revenue and eps in

half. and if tim was here he's not the ambassador would talk about correctly how airlines are the greatest trading names out there. and you think about it. this was a $70 stock a few weeks ago. it's going to trade right now at 43. i think the august 5th low is 38. tomorrow could be a capitulation day in delta airlines if it trades ten times, you know, 75, 80 million shares. you take a shot on the long side. >> yeah, i'll just say this. and you know, this is a business that we've chosen guy. and, you know, i've been doing this for decades now. you obviously multiple more decades than me. this is just stupid. like the fact that a stock or a group like this could go up at least 100%. okay, united went up 200% from the summer lows, and these companies were giving guidance. there's no way this guidance turned on a dime over the last couple of weeks. okay. and to have a cut like that that warranted a pre-announcement. now i'm not telling you that that makes it any less likely to have the sorts of gaps that it did. but, you know, investors have to bear some of the responsibility for a market like

this, because if you're willing to bid up a stock like this because you think it's going to the sky or rcl put the cruise lines in there because of some narrative about a consumer and an economy that's inflecting, well, then shame on you, because and i don't mean to sound like so nasty about it, but like to have this stock down like this, it's retraced the entire move or so, and i just think it's a bit goofy. >> i mean, if. >> you look. >> at those that have been hurt the most, this is certainly in. >> that category, down 30, 31%. they all have a common pre-condition. they were the biggest performers. >> right. so that what does kohlberg. >> kravis have. >> to do with delta. >> have. >> to. >> do with carmine. cal-maine eggs? >> the ones that have been hurt the most are the ones that were the most loved, most believed in, and now are the most. sort of run away from. >> and there are plenty of others that haven't had real selling. >> the presumption is that there's more to come. >> coming up. we'll have much more on today's market selloff, including a top tech analyst thought on the megacap meltdown, where the chart master sees support and where traders are looking for signs of relief. all that ahead. but first, some

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>> welcome back to fast money. earnings alert here on oracle. shares moving higher despite a miss on the top and bottom lines. the conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. seema mody has got the details. hey, seema. >> melissa on the call. executives from oracle reassuring, providing reassuring comments on the trajectory of its cloud business. ceo safra catz saying oracle's huge $130 billion sales backlog backlog will help drive a 15% increase in oracle's total revenue in the next fiscal year. analysts were expecting about 13% growth. that coincides with comments from larry ellison, who put concerns of a slowdown to bed, adding that oracle is seeing enormous demand for ai inferencing with plans to double its data center capacity in the calendar year. now, that is significant because oracle did get caught up in the most latest deep sea induced sell off last month on concerns that cheaper ai models would result in less demand for cloud storage and data centers, a business that oracle has been rapidly growing into in the quarter. oracle's cloud services business a slight miss there,

but we're still seeing shares move higher here. on the bullish commentary provided by oracle on the call. shares still down about 20% from its most recent high. melissa. >> any mention yet of stargate? seema. >> you know, no mention of stargate just yet. i'll keep you updated on what ellison and katz have to say about the return on investment of that massive project they unveiled late january, alongside softbank and openai. plus what the company has to say about its agreement with tiktok with that deadline approaching. >> all right, seema, thank you. seema mody on oracle higher bucking the trend here guy. >> well you go back to july of last year i think it was july 3rd. the stock made an all time high about 145 ish and then cascaded lower into august like everything else did. look at where we just traded down to and stopped basically. 145, you know, 11.5% earnings growth 20 times, 21 times next year's numbers. i think actually it's a reasonable name and it has sold off from this prior high. we saw a month and a half two months ago. so if you're looking for value i think oracle provides it. >> i mean, ig overall has gotten

crushed and this one really stands out. >> i mean here too. >> this stock doubled. >> in the preceding. >> year and has now just dropped 25%. obviously indicated up a bit. >> but i think you fade strength. >> yeah yeah. and just if they can pull the chart up and you know, in january when they made that stargate announcement, you remember the big gap and then it actually filled in the gap and came all the way back in. obviously it's much lower than that. i think you fade this thing because if you are worried about these other maj7 stocks that are being punished right now because of a deceleration in growth, but actually upside to their capex numbers, this stock fits right in there. and don't forget the moment that they made this announcement when sam altman and larry ellison and missing, who was the third one. yeah, masa son from softbank was sitting there. you know elon musk doge boy tweeted out right away. they don't have the money right. >> so even the administration somebody in the administration. >> stargate is a big fugazi. >> all right. well we'll see what they have to say about that. coming up, more on today's tech wreck. the nasdaq now nearly 14% off its highs as a

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scan to watch cnbc's crypto world, sponsored by crypto.com. >> welcome back to fast money. another check on today's market drop. the dow tumbling nearly 900 points, the s&p down almost 3% and the tech heavy nasdaq leading the losses down about 4% just a few minutes ago. a white house official commenting on the selloff, saying we, quote, want to emphasize that we are seeing a strong divergence between animal spirits of the stock market and what we are actually seeing unfold from businesses and business leaders. and the latter is obviously more meaningful than the former on what is in store for the economy in the medium to long term. the energy stocks meantime, bucking today's big downturn, the xle up almost a percent even as crude oil pulls back slightly. nat gas hitting its highest level since december of 2022 and crypto taking it on the chin. bitcoin dropping below $78,000 to its lowest since early november. ether and solana down about 10%

apiece. but the comments from the white house really underscore the fact that if there was a belief that there was a trump put out there, it doesn't work for much lower. i mean, it's not going to be activated. >> i mean, listen, we just heard from delta that which 100% refutes what they're just saying. right. and so again, i suspect we're going to hear it from the banks in the not so distant future, especially the longer this goes. so, you know, that announcement or statement or whatever. i mean, it's you know, it's not worth a whole heck of a. >> lot coming out, much more in today's market. sell off the mac seven getting trounced today. what is next for the big tech trade and how do you know when to get back in? we'll talk to a veteran tech analyst, mark veteran tech analyst, mark mahaney, right after this. fast (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this?

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you can improve your skin at omni luxe ledcom. >> welcome back to fast money big tech, among the biggest losers in today's sell off every name in the so-called mag seven, now down 10% or more from their highs together, the group has lost nearly $2.5 trillion in market capitalization this year. for more on the tech wreck, let's bring in mark mahaney, head of internet research at evercore isi. mark, great to have you with us. >> hi, melissa. >> what do you tell clients and how receptive are they to? i think it's a buy rating. the

long term fundamentals are great. i don't make calls for the next six months. i make calls for the next 12 months. because if you had said that a couple of months ago, they'd be down now and it'd be pretty painful. >> well. you stick with your discipline. you always look for. >> what i love. >> to look for is dq's. >> dislocated, high quality companies. >> we didn't have any at the beginning of. >> this year. >> except for uber. >> uber was our top pick. i thought at. >> 60 i think it was. way dislocated. i think you now may have another one, which is amazon. i particularly like amazon. >> with the sell. >> off here. we just bumped it up to be our number one pick. >> you want to be disciplined about where the stocks are. look we had. >> a two and a. >> half year rally. >> super rally in s&p. >> 500 more so in nasdaq. even more. >> so in the in the internet. large cap names that left very few kind of compelling valuations. startups at the at the beginning of the year. but you. >> know you continue with a correction. >> like this. >> you're going to find really interesting aggressive. >> price points. so i'm stick. >> with my. >> two most interesting price points right here are you know are uber and amazon.

>> what is the worst case scenario in your view in terms of valuation or any other metric for that matter for amazon in the case where i capex gets tailed curtailed or spend on aa gets curtailed and there's a severe drop in consumer sentiment, consumer confidence such that, you know, the retail portion of its business gets hit to. >> well. >> i guess i would look at two things. i'd look. at where the multiple is. >> versus where. >> it's traded in. >> the past. and 25. times earnings is. >> the cheapest you've. >> ever had a. shot at amazon doesn't mean you're not. it couldn't be cheaper than that. look we've. >> got if we get if we get overbought you can get oversold. i'd be. very surprised to. >> see a name like. >> amazon trade down to. >> 20 times earnings. >> but it's. >> possible that. >> would have to be that. there are real. >> fears that this consumer. >> softness is going to cause negative. >> revisions. on to. >> to amazon numbers for the year. >> i don't think that's the case now from. >> everything that we've checked so far. look. >> most consumer. almost all consumer demand trends. >> when we looked at the most discretionary of the sectors i look at like.

>> travel. >> i looked at retail, i look at advertising, mobility, delivery. those results were stronger going into 25 than they were going into 24. maybe all this is inflected down in the last two weeks. i'd be a little surprised by that. but it's possible. but but barring major evidence that we're really going to have a negative earnings revisions. i guess that's what the. melissa, i kind of trying to listen to the stocks a little bit. you know, if amazon trades below 25, then that's the market telling you that they think there's material negative revisions coming up. if you have belief that that's going to happen then you stay away from the stocks. right now i don't believe that we're going to have negative revisions. so i'd be waiting in here buying some of these names, but i'd be very selective about it. start off with the ones that are most dislocated in my book. that's amazon and uber. >> mark dan brings this up so i'll bring it up as well. you know everybody talks about capex. capex has been sort of the backbone of this. but you know, if you see a slowdown i mean capex isn't etched in stone. so if you were to see people starting to pull back, how impactful could that be?

yeah. >> it will be kind of an amplifier impact. so wait a second. your business is slowing. you're accelerating your spending in capex. i think most of these. >> companies. >> particularly the big three, i'll just stick with those meta, amazon and. >> google, you. >> know, have good roi, data points and data points that prove that their investments, there's at least some pay off. google being able to say, i love these 225% data points. google is telling you that 25% of their code now is being written by ai. that has some real interesting implications in terms of keeping headcount flat going forwards. amazon telling you that in its most advanced distribution centers, they're seeing a 25% reduction in cost to serve. that has dramatic implications for margins at at amazon going forward. so as long as you get those kind of data points, we're fine. but yeah, i would imagine if there's a dramatic downturn in end market demand, not just for a quarter or two, but really would have to be substantial, then maybe you'd see these companies take down capex. i'd be very surprised to see that in

this year. >> how much more dislocation does alphabet need in order to put it on that list of yours, along with uber as well as amazon? mark. and i'm wondering, you know, we just heard from the delta ceo taking down guidance. we're going to hear from a raft of the other airline ceos over the coming days of this jp morgan conference. and you got to wonder, you know, google has traditionally been a beneficiary of travel and travel advertising. et cetera. so how about the other side of that? >> yeah i mean these stocks are cyclical. there's no question about it amazon meta google they're all cyclical. so if we're really starting to see a downtick in consumer demand these companies would see that too. google would see it in travel, retail, financial services. those are google's three big categories. you ask where i stack it. actually, it's my third favorite stock. we just bumped it up to that level. i think there's so many overhangs on google here. this is the one where the narrative could most change to the upside. i think 16 times earnings on market

discount for google. i mean, unless the doj really gets aggressive, more aggressive than we think. and i think i you know, i think the d.o.j. risk is less now than it was six, six months ago. it just is. it's a fundamentally different i think there's a much greater chance of a settlement now, unless you really believe that chatgpt is going to upend google. the survey work we do doesn't suggest that at all, unless you believe they've just got no cost discipline, which they may not, but i hope they do. i think there's a lot of upside. so it's my third favorite stock here. >> all right mark always great to speak with you. thanks for your time. mark mahaney evercore isi. julie beal what's on your shopping list of the mag seven, if any? >> i kind of agree. i think google for sure. the biggest challenge was the regulatory overhang. and i do think that at these levels the market multiple really discounts what they have and the ability they have. to me, you have to resolve the question of whether ai and that kind of search is going to be an existential threat to their business, or they can figure out

how to replace a lot of that revenue. and i think that's probably a larger, more difficult question. but the one thing that i think i have for all of these mac seven tech companies that are dependent on an ai kind of revenue stream, is that i don't think it's going to be enough for the only thing that comes out of this ai benefit to just be efficiencies, right? i don't think that companies are going to spend really enterprise is going to spend really aggressively just for efficiencies. and so in order to really make these large capex budgets that they have been, you know, expanding in order to justify that, that you really have to have more than just you're going to be more efficient. and that needs to be seen soon. >> coming up stocks dropping sharply as recession fears take hold on wall street. what the chart master sees in the technicals and the names that could shrug off the worries and potentially bounce higher from here. that is next on fast money returns. >> this is a landfill. >> w.m is transformed what you think of as landfills into

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recent high. so what's next for the market? are there any opportunities to buy? let's see what carter is watching. carter. >> all right. let's get to it and we'll move quickly here. >> we'll write to the s&p. and we have three identical charts. >> the first depicts of course, this well-defined. channel that we've been ascending since. >> the bear market low of 2022. now to. >> get to the midpoint of the. >> channel second chart, that would be a draw. >> down about 12.5%. >> we're down nine and. >> a half now. >> that's nothing to. >> get to the bottom. >> next chart. >> that would be around 1,920%. >> i think one has to sort of model. >> for that. and that is sort of garden variety. the nonsense of. >> 20% of bear market versus 19. >> not dispense with all that. but let's. >> talk about some. >> stocks that are acting. >> well as the all. time technical expression goes. here's bristol-myers, obviously very. defensive up on the year up over the past 18, 20 sessions when the market is down, one way to annotate it, a second way, same chart, same company. but this annotation, you can see what one wants to see, but it's

bullish. >> let's look at verizon. this is also very defensive. >> and we're seeing that of course. >> in areas throughout the market low beta cash rich if you will. high yield stocks with no growth one way. second way to draw the charts for verizon. and then let's go to two comparative charts just to make a point. so these are five year comparative charts. and what you see here of course there's the s&p way up there up at 175%. and there's actually identical performance. the two of them are both actually down a little bit over the past five years. if you take the same comparative chart last chart and freeze the s&p, it holds it as a. constant that then depicts a relative performance a different way. there, so bombed out on a relative basis to the market having gone nowhere in five years. market's up 175%. this is the kind of thing i think one wants to look for. if one is trying to put money to work. >> did you like either of these two? >> bristol-myers. we've talked about it for a while now. obviously, it's getting sort of the tailwind of rotation into big cap pharma, which i get. but

this started long ago. and if you go back and look, i mean, this move we're seeing now is a 50% retracement of the prior all time high, i think a little north of, i want to say, 80 bucks in this recent low that we just saw down below 40. so it makes sense this move. but just on valuation alone, if you're looking for compelling cases, i mean bristol-myers is about as good as it gets. >> yeah i know novo nordisk was down a lot today, down nearly 10% on some trials. and you know, again, this pipeline as it relates to these diabetes and weight loss drugs, you know, it's important they got to keep up. and you know that's where i think a lot of competition. but this stock is really cheap on a pe to growth level. and estimates have not come down meaningful meaningfully for this year. so this one looks really interesting. looks a little washed out down here. >> coming up a red day on wall street. but will the carnage continue. what the traders need to see to believe the selloff is coming to an end. don't go anywhere fast. money is back in two. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your

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with your xfinity internet, plus a free 5g phone. >> welcome back to fast money. major averages all closing deep in the red today with the dow down more than 1200 points at its lows. the vix meantime hitting its highest level since august 5th today. so guy you mentioned earlier that that was

a level of fear that could indicate that selling may. yeah to an end. >> yeah. and you could start. listen first of all you should see counter trend rallies with the vix at these levels. so don't expect to see that. but if you're looking for capitulation for me it will come in the form of the vix trading up above 3233 and then closing lower on the day. i think we're setting up for that type of day. but clearly we haven't seen it yet. >> julie how about you. >> yeah i always look for the contrary indication right. and so for me that actually happened in november december when the last economists who were really bearish started to capitulate to the upside. and so you need kind of a reversal just like that, where you're starting to see some economists taking down their forecasts because of the uncertainty. i'd like to see a little bit more of that before i get really enthusiastic. >> yeah. and carter, i don't know if this is what you're going to say, but i thought it was really interesting when you mentioned before that the other pockets in the world that were doing that are doing well. they need to roll over as well. >> right? >> because surely if the united states is really going to have a further equity rout that gathers

pace and energy and really draws in the fear you cannot have in principle, big bourses like the dax just going higher and higher. so it would be the joining in to. >> the downside. >> of those that have held out. >> so when somebody says, oh, well, the us is doing so poorly because we had high valuations. et cetera. and europe is spending you know germany is spending a lot of money now. and it's time to get into europe. you say sure. >> and that's no that's worked. but that's worked quite well for the past 3 or 4 months. but if you look at any major rout in equities globally at any given time, the correlations are high and you don't have real holdouts. right. >> dan, how about you. what are you looking for. >> you know i think financial stocks. so money centers and really what they have to say about the consumer, we just talked about what the white house said. we talked about what delta is saying. so if there is any weakening of the consumer the way we see it. and then the flip side of that, more on an institutional basis, if i look at like a apollo or a blackstone or a kkr, these stocks really went up quickly after the election. but they started giving it up. they never confirmed the highs in the s&p, which they were making, you

know, right up until february. so these stocks getting washed out they're all down about 30%. that will be something interesting to me. >> up next final trades. >> next. >> what's really happening is your price to earnings. multiples are shrinking because we sense a mandate for lower prices. so why not just sell. and the mandate is not coming and the mandate is not coming from wall street. they oh, it makes me want to tear up. i swear to god, my business has tripled in the last year because of me sharing my videos on tiktok. i wouldn't be able to support the families that work for me now without tiktok. (♪♪) (♪♪) that work for me now the booking app i used didn't have agentforce. so an ai agent didn't know to move my reservations inside... ...or know what i like to eat, which is not that. what's up, my brother? oh, hey, bud! we really needed this rain.

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at an interesting price level. >> okay. >> not. >> too. >> far from me. >> melms what. >> is that? >> do you have a trade? >> why are you looking behind you? >> general motors. >> was up today. >> gm thank you for watching fast money. see you back here tomorrow. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. >> i'm here to level the playing field. for all investors. there's always a bull market. somewhere and i promise to help you. >> find it. >> mad money starts. >> now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. jeez. i'm just trying to save your money. my job is to put everything in context. and i'm going to do it today. and i'm going to do it for you. call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. but they wipe out these gains pretty easily don't they. just like that the sellers take away months if not years of profits because they want to get