thank you. >> thank you. have a great day. >> okay. you too. oh we're going to do the futures real quick. it's turn negative. >> come down. >> we didn't even make it. we didn't even make it to the open. didn't even make it to the open. i know. >> 100 points up. >> but you know. but maybe if we start out down, maybe through the session. we'll make sure you join us tomorrow. squawk on the street is next. >> i would not jump back into the magnificent seven because as of tonight, there is no magic. seven came up with that name scrapping it right now, no moniker fits the 2 or 3 that remain viable, and i'm not going to put it. and there's nothing magnificent about tesla or nvidia. >> that is jim. >> on mad. >> money last night, talking about what he used to call the magnificent seven. good tuesday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. >> i'm carl. quintanilla with jim cramer at post. >> nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber is on assignment after the drubbing

yesterday. futures slightly red here. several big corporates lower their earnings guidance. delta southwest american verizon dick's sporting goods. but let's get right to the markets today after the sell off. the worst day for the s&p and the dow since december. worst for the nasdaq since 2022. s&p is now in a 9% drawdown. jim, why did you choose last night to retire that phrase? >> okay. >> well, first of all, i want to be constructive here because everybody's giving up. i noticed that that the airlines that have said things are okay like united are bouncing. delta is not that bad. i think this is a very crucial day. and i just want to say what i was saying was historical and empirical, not hysterical and crazy. i was looking at the magnificent seven from when michael hartnett created from bank of america, and he did it in may of 2023. and what's happened is, is that we no longer have the top seven were magnificent seven, but now we have apple, microsoft, nvidia, amazon and alphabet. and then suddenly it's berkshire hathaway, it's broadcom, it's

eli lilly and then it's tesla. so how are we going to have this. and more importantly these stocks were just about what was big market cap. and it was about what happened. i talked to listen to leslie picker yesterday. this is the time of the banking crisis two years ago. yes. and that's when this group asserted itself. and they were responsible for all the gains. and that's over. it's hard to be magnificent seven when you're not in the top seven. we could call it the okay ten and we could have yul brenner, chris adams, that could be amazon because the amazon's strong vin tanner, that could be meta. that's steve mcqueen obviously was a great charitable guy. covered his death when i was in la. that meta. they're relying on advertising but it's good. and then after that i mean, chico, i'm being very visceral about this and not being joking. i mean, it was a magnificent seven. it was about the movie and that's nvidia because nvidia is doing well, but nobody seems to care. that was that was horse buckles. and after that microsoft they misquoted three times. apple

they're leaning on it very, very badly. particularly because the siri stuff that is negative alphabet i think is going to miss the quarter because i no longer think that google is as effective versus grok versus chatgpt grok, by the way. awesome. and then tesla, it's not even the top tesla is number ten. and by the way, walmart at one point was flirting with number ten knocking tesla out. so how are we supposed to go if we go back in time to how this was created? they were the top seven. and you know, there's just not not enough juice. they have nothing to do with each other, right? that's been revealed. >> but jim, yesterday was about a lot more than seven stocks. i mean we had 160 s&p names down 4%. >> i was looking at the stocks that have a market cap of 5 billion, that have that have fallen, fallen 50% since the election. it's tesla applovin, it's microstrategy now, whatever. trade desk venture global horrible. and then you

get into reddit, right? >> brett kavanaugh reddit i think down 50% in five weeks. >> these are really good companies. so what i'm saying is, is that we have an overwhelming tech. we have ways to get out of this. nvidia next week is gtc. i'll be going out there. tesla. we had ron baron brilliant incredibly. and then we had adam jonas saying, listen, it's time to buy. that will matter. people listen to jonas. there's nothing wrong with meta other than perhaps advertising, which is economically sensitive. amazon is doing great. okay, so the question is microsoft, can they say anything since they missed last time? i don't know. can apple defend itself off of siri. yes, because siri was i don't know, anyone who thought it was really going to be ready. and they're going into stage rollouts. why don't people realize that? when i talked to tim cook, he's not talking about 17, 18, 19 anymore. he's just talking about releases of software to go with the phone. it's a misleading thing. and then i really don't know what to do about i don't know what to do about amazon. they're quiet. i

don't know, it's discouraging because these are the ones that they have to rally, but they're no longer the top ten. i think that berkshire is important. broadcom had the best quarter of all these companies. if that stock doesn't rally then you know we're in trouble because it's down. it's down 18%. >> isn't today more about we've heard all these sentiment surveys and you miss and the isms today. it's really about that distilling into corporate guidance. these airlines the verizon guide here some retail out of dick's. >> absolutely. and i actually think dick's was better than people realize kohl's is just that's just a pathetic organization a parody of the mine. frankly i like that. i'm looking at the action of you all. i do think that historically, when you have two, two incidents in a row of airline, let's call them disturbances, there has always been a decline at bastian. didn't didn't say that the last bull market has been in travel and that's been in bookings.com. it's been the airlines, it's

been marriott. so this is the end of that of that bull market. if you want to say it. but look let's just let's got to come back to the present. you can't really watch the stock market when you said that tariffs are going to be the greatest thing we have ever done as a country, i call everyone's attention to the washington post piece this morning which says the base doesn't like tariffs. they're giving you 30 to 35% people who of the base that like tariffs they've not been explained. well buying a tesla at what what time in the morning did he buy. did the president say he's going to buy a tesla. >> yeah he's going to buy buy a tesla. >> well that's terrific. >> what type of support for elon musk. >> well there we go. 12:14 a.m. he said he's going to buy a tesla. what is this, cinderella? i mean, give me a give me a break. so i'm looking at this and i'm saying, and you know i support these tariffs i'm much harder on tariffs than he is. i think he is being soft on tariffs because these these are partners, so-called partners have been ripping us off for ages. he's right about that. but you got to be a little more like tr. you got to speak softly and

carry a big stick because the speak loud with no stick. that's what the bullies do. and you don't want to do that now. i didn't like the way i wouldn't have done what canada did, which is, you know, fight back. you got to do it like shienbaum. but i just think that we're courting with a manufactured recession. >> recession, manufacturing, manufacturing. we lost some jobs and. >> it's manufactured. if the president were to be a little more, would be a little more like theodore roosevelt, little less like mckinley, by the way, who was really anti working man and praising mckinley when he took away denali. i like these things. i'm mentioning these things because they're symbolic, not because they are theoretical constructs that i'm talking about. but the president has to recognize that i maybe should read the washington post. he probably doesn't like it, but or city the pause in us exceptionalism today, which thank you for doing nothing. >> they cut us equities to neutral. >> you want your manufactured recession. i guess it's the right time to do it. i think it's wrong. and when you come out and say there will be no

recession, that's like saying that's like 2930 when they were talking about don't worry about the no, get away from that beat. these so-called partners by talking quietly and say, look, here's what awaits you if you don't lower it and then tell us, like he hasn't explained why we're doing this. i mean, the i mean, these countries have horrendous. i tried to buy a deere tractor in italy, like the tariff was like 50% on the damn thing. there are thousands of tariffs against us. have peter navarro unemotionally like he was when i was at harvard. unemotionally just explain what's really going on. there's nothing wrong with that. he wrote trump time. it's a very good book and it's very unemotional. i liked it a lot, but it's time for the president to be tr a great president. forget mckinley, forget mckinley. that was like against william jennings bryan. he was like the cross of gold versus silver. no way. >> you're calling. >> for a wholesale change in the communication about.

>> oh. >> you betcha. you bet i am. i don't want a recession. let a manufactured recession. i don't want to feel worried about my job, everybody's job. i just feel like that what's happened is, you know, it's like colorists are saying the root's indicator. colorists are talking about a decline in women, women getting coloring your. >> hair. >> your hair. yeah. >> i mean, this is not right. >> well, i mean, i know we mentioned surveys but nfib today jim good time to expand down five. expect real sales higher in a year. down four. plans to increase employment down three. and then capex intentions are at a cycle low. that's not exactly the intent of. >> that's the base that small. >> business it's the backbone of our country. don't attack the backbone. these are the people who hire the base, and they are the base, and the base is the greatest base in the world. it's the working person and working person across. it's not who you want to alienate. now, i have

historically i've worked with the president. now you could say, well, wait a second, clown. i was in the apprentice. i have him on many times on our show. this is not the president i know optimistic, telling us that things you know don't work. don't worry, because there are jobs being created right now. and we're going to go and look at the tariffs of our neighbor. here's here's all the tariffs against us. doesn't seem right. but no, don't be like don't be like the first guy. be like roosevelt and not fdr. tr tr study tr right now. get the damn books. there's a lot of good books about tr. >> so more practically about the short term. jim, is this a is this a level at which we can bounce? >> yes, absolutely. we know we had typically we had this morning of t-mobile. i was at mike mike sievert retiring. what's that. we typically this this morning we had everything up at 4 a.m. things were up. it was like ridiculous. nvidia was up like a dollar and a half. now

i don't know those people. in the old days they would have called them clowns. now i use emmett kelly because the zero dark 30, whatever it is, the zero guys, by the way, zero zero these day traders, they've captured even nvidia. it's the number one name that trades every day with these two x things, which are ridiculous. those are those are tnt. they have captured the day trading of nvidia, which is why nvidia has become such a bad stock versus how it's doing. they've separated the stock from the company. >> right. a lot of desk notes today or last night i should say about the trading activity not being short squeezed but real longs getting destroyed i think is how barclays put it. >> absolutely. and you know, look any i think people don't realize if you talk to robinhood, you get it. people don't realize the power of the these zero options, zero day options. they have the ability to push stocks down because we're not we don't have that big a liquid market. now people are going to say, oh that jim, that's ridiculous. but why don't you do some homework like i have

verizon? oh geez, isn't that even a good phone company? >> well, they did say q1 is going to come in quote probably soft. >> well, they had a decent quarter last time. so i think that's interesting. i think it's probably an overreaction because people are going to like that dividend versus where bonds are. yeah. but you know interest rates yesterday were terrific for the market. but no one really wanted to care because people say well that's just flight to safety. i don't give a damn what what i'm sorry. darn. you know what's going on that made it so that interest rates are down because no one's ever looked through that. it's how the mag seven started, when rates broke down and people said, well, who's doing well? rates are finding it. mag seven started during the banking crisis. well banks are good. bank stocks go down every day. why? because of the manufactured recession manufacturing. we were doing well, but the base doesn't understand tariff. all they know is i don't want to lose my job right now with my plumbing and heating company in order to be able to get a job with taiwan.

seven semi in 2030. >> well, now you're you're you're what you're describing is the overlay between the inflationary aspect of tariffs and the employment worries of, say, doge and the two of those things happening at the same time. >> well i mean look the president said tariffs are going to be the greatest thing we have ever done as a country. well, i mean, remember smoot-hawley 1930 hoover. right. greatest things going to happen to our country 32 election wishes. he hadn't said that once to walk it back lost by a mile. >> well. >> i think reagan's first midterm dems picked up like 26 seats. >> well. >> i love reagan. so reagan spoke softly. and look, we look back at the 1980s as being a halcyon period. in retrospect. reagan did it with a happy warrior smile. i don't see any smile here. i see meanness. america don't like meanness. that's not our country. meanness. not meanness. she's be more like steve mcqueen, who was great. >> yes, i know.

>> you knew him well. >> he's like he's like coburn here. he's like. he's like. he's like robert vaughn. don't give me robert vaughn. give me your brenner. >> take. >> i'll take a break. here, take a look at the pre market. bunch of movers to get to. of course, as we take stock of just what happened yesterday and what can be built today if today is in fact turnaround tuesday. more fact turnaround tuesday. more squawk on the today, she starts with a drive. but the real work came before, inspired by a coach coach: hold it right there, who recognized her potential. coach: turn and fire. coach: awesome morgan stanley proudly supports first tee. driving progress for the next generation. ruri: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4...) hina: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4...) akari: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4...)

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like xyz stock because i'm going to ask you why. and then if you say you sold it, i'm going to say, well, why did you sell? get away from talking your book and tell me the real story. ambition is a fuel and a fire. they call me the judge for a reason. i'm supposed to make people squirm as long as i get the goods. at the end of the day, we're talking about people's money. i yeah it is weird that we still call these things "phones." well yeah, they're more like minicomputers. precisely. next slide. xfinity mobile customers are connected to wifi 90% of the time. that's why our network has powerboost with speeds up to a

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mean jeez, get it together, for heaven's sake. >> yeah. we'll talk some more. elements of travel demand in the coming months. we'll get cramer's mad dash and get the opening bell in just about 12 minutes. >> modern advisors need modern solutions. explore modern alpha, enhance your portfolios, and empower your practice, all without taking your hands off the wheel. learn more about the wheel. learn more about wisdomtree portfolio -honey... -but the gains are pumping! dad, is mommy a "finance bro?" she switched careers to make money for your weddings. oooh the asian market is blowing up! hey who wants shots, huh?! -shots?? -of milk. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. >> i breach. >> what? >> never mind. i'll be. >> right there. >> yep. >> ransomware. >> and this is the chaos it causes. but what if you could

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meeting. >> time. cramer's mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. >> david faber often asked me, what's the key to this market? i'm going to have to give three keys. i'm sorry a lot of doors. sj smucker sjm. >> presenting today. >> yes, colgate and jnj. these are two companies, sjm and colgate, that are not doing well. they had suboptimal results. jnj has moved up mightily and is right at the level where it can either break out or be repelled. not sure about this. and what i'm saying is, is that these three have been bid up unnaturally by this program, which is out of the really good stocks of companies that are doing really well and into the companies. and i don't mean to slight j&j, but it's been suboptimal. this is see look at this. all right. well anyway this is the breakout level for jnj. if this market is going to bottom j&j has to be thrown back to the 160 level. smucker has to be thrown back to the 110 level, and colgate has to be thrown back to 92 level

where they began these ascents. these companies are not doing well enough to be able to support the rallies that they've had. it's entirely done by traders who don't seem to know how to trade by putting things on immediately. i wish i had worked these orders. you wouldn't see this action. >> but is the news flow pushing you in a direction where you tilt away from staples and into consumer discretionary? >> i think it's hard because i actually thought dick's was okay. people didn't like this. they didn't like the guide. kohl's is a disaster. i would come back and say i don't necessarily want consumer discretionary. i do want tech. i think tech is very good here. i think the attitude toward tech is very bad. and here i'd like to highlight marvell technology mrvl. they did have a great quarter. they do have a good relationship with amazon, which includes, i mean, investment. and the stock has gone. it's very interesting. this company right here they had no i they had less than 200 million. i right now this is right here okay. now they have 1.5 billion in ai. and it is below where they had 200 million. now you

tell me under what construct that can be, right? i don't see it. and vidya does have gtc next week. there are a lot of people. this is the big conference. the stock is has an amazing record after gtc. and i'm saying who would think that maybe jensen wants to something good. marvell is doing much better than people think. i don't know, i would rather be in tech than i would say, you know, except for walmart and costco. those are the ones that you buy. at this moment. walmart is down ten straight points. that's wrong. >> we're going. >> to talk oracle's capex. i mean that. >> it's. >> not cracking yet. >> i don't understand why people didn't listen to safra catz and to larry ellison, who owns his own island. i've been there a while. the guy's got game. it was a good it was the best orders i've ever heard from a tech company. go listen to the call and stop being so negative. >> we will get to oracle in a minute. don't forget, the opening bell is coming up. but you can catch us anytime, anywhere. just listen to and follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. >> the pga tour's best look to

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performance. is that still the case? can we go beyond dow jones, maybe to nasdaq? >> well, i think i've always said, you know, to me stock market is very all of it. you know, all of it together. it's very important. >> when president reagan was here, he talked about putting the bear into hibernation, letting the bull run free. sound like a good motto. >> sounds perfect. i can't do any better than that. that's what we're going to do. that's the president. then the president elect with jim here at the big board three months ago, and we kind of took note, jim, of the way he framed the way he views the market at the time. >> right. i mean, obviously, the dow jones is not down as much as the nasdaq and it is the dow jones. it's always been the dow jones. but the president which is fine. it's very meaningful. i do want to point out that he was more constructive about the idea of linking himself to the market than he is now. because when he said that you can't really watch a stock market, that's a little bit of a pivot from what we heard. >> yeah, i would say so, yeah. >> well, i'm trying to be a little less dramatic. >> i mean, we've all seen the overlays of the stock market in his first few months on 1.0 and

then this one. >> the stock market is a decent referendum because everybody sees it. and by the way, the people the base has a 401 k and the base has a, they have an ira and the base doesn't want to lose money. the base works really hard for the ira to get that up. and this is the ira. ira under attack. there's absolutely nothing wrong with sending stocks down if companies are doing badly and we've heard from a couple verizon, we've heard some airlines, we are in conference season. so you're hearing companies say negative things at the same time. why be part of that? why be why tip things? and the answer is, is that i think that the president at this moment wants to get something done with the tariffs. but tariffs are really hard for the base to understand. they are hard. they're hard for me to understand. i studied economics, i studied with galbraith, for heaven's sake. the really good people, all nobel guys. and it's hard. it's hard. and i think that it's better to say, listen, we're going to work quietly with our to get things better for you

working people. but if you're opening a factory in our country while you're causing people to be laid off, now there's a considerable gap between being laid off now and when a factory can open, particularly when you're building very, very difficult foundries that take 4 or 5 years to build. so i think that there's this is a good moment to be able to say, look, we've established kind of a roadmap here, and you're not going to necessarily hear what we're going to do, but we're doing it for you. >> interesting. >> that would be a better way. >> he is he is meeting with the business roundtable today. >> are you going to get that? i think you're going to get that pushback from the business roundtable right now. i think you're going to get that. i think they're going to be very in sync with what i'm saying. i know they will. >> i mean. >> i'm thinking back to that moment you had with him here at the at the big board. at the time, there were huge hopes for m&a. now we have year to date lowest level of m&a in a decade. >> i have really good. >> information up to date right. >> now on what's going on. >> in m&a. there's a there's a

pause. >> i don't want to say it's a shutdown. there's a pause. there are very few deals. >> that were going to be many deals. >> now people want to wait. >> i mean many deals. being a. >> pipeline was. >> really rather extraordinary. a month ago, maybe. >> two months. >> but it's going home. it's not done. but it is a floodgate ready to happen. if there can just be a calming experience from washington. this is up to date right now. i mean, i. >> can't believe how good this. >> stuff is. >> and it's better than what. >> he is. >> it is. that's okay. i my stuff is better than bernanke. sometimes you're better, sometimes you're worse. >> let's get. >> the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board. it's capital group, a private investment management company at the nasdaq. tri-counties bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of tri-co bancshares, celebrating 50 years. >> now we want to watch applovin. we want to that's become. we do want to watch reddit. big company. we do want to watch microstrategy now. stark. stark. and i just think

that we have to keep an eye on berkshire. keep an eye on broadcom, which is bigger than tesla. keep an eye on lily because these have to bounce. if they bounce. >> that'll be a good day. >> yeah you mentioned the banks now 10% below the 50 day. that is an unusual number. >> it's time for them to make a stand. i think a lot of them have come down too much. but. but if we have a recession, banks are the worst stocks. i don't think we'll have a recession. like i said, it's manufacturing. it's manufacturing. >> well, that doesn't mean there won't be. i'm not sure i understand. >> oh, no. manufactured. easily caused recession. absolutely. i don't, you know, i'm not i'm not saying that manufacturing is not going to happen. right. i'm saying manufacturing is that you can make it happen. and when you get angry and when you you kind of lose your temper and you get mad instead of, like, the way shine bombs handle it in mexico, it gets people nervous and upset. they want the president to be a little happier. they let you know there's nothing wrong with being happy. you can be tough as nails and be happy, but

right now it just feels like, oh, we're going to just screw everything. you know, people have been screwing us for years and we're going to fight back, which is true. it's absolutely true. but you got to explain it very calmly and empirically how we're being hurt by in italy, how we're being hurt by germany. and this is going to stop and we're going to make it stop and then don't scream at those countries. it doesn't work. it doesn't work. it doesn't work because they know that they can stand their ground. you tell them, look, i am going to scream you at you. help us, help us, and we'll help you. >> that's still the process of retaliation is starting to come into full effect. we heard the comments yesterday from canada about electricity taxes and doug ford. i'll gladly shut it off completely if i have to. >> smoot-hawley 60% increase in tariffs. there isn't anyone in any history book and i know the president reads history. there isn't anyone in any history book that doesn't say that was a considered. that was a considered reason why we had the

great depression. there isn't a soul who's ever said that. look, go read galbraith's book. it's really quick. it was a direct cause of the of the depression, not the recession. >> so it is it is playing with fire. you think? >> absolutely. >> but is it arson? >> meaning you can contain the blaze. >> is that. >> what you're saying? meaning that you're doing it? maybe it's. >> deliberate, right? >> and it doesn't make any sense that you don't want people to be laid off because of what you say. people are scared, karl. you don't scare people. you don't scare me. it's just. it's a wrong call. it's all message. people are scared. come at it with a little bit of humor. come at it and say, listen, i'm going over to germany. you know it's going to be different for the germans going forward. not like, you know, i hate germany. i mean, come on, they are our allies. >> now you're getting to the other thing. minutes ago now, the fundstrat raised this question yesterday. do you think the president is willing to watch the german and chinese stock markets go to the moon, while ours craters on?

>> this weekend i did a piece and i said, everyone keeps thinking about the dow. i think that the president is competitive versus other countries. and he could very quickly say, look, you know, he's distinguished himself. he's not caring about the stock market. well, how about their stock markets? they're crushing us. are we really going to let the italian stock market beat us? is spain going to spain? spain? i mean are you kidding me? i don't think it's been this strong since franco. >> right? not to mention that some of the european bourses are trading at 14 times. they could still go higher and not be quite where we are. >> and we. >> still have these. i don't know, i don't hear you recommending any european exposure. >> they're up so much. >> they're up so much. i mean, this fellow from, from city he's talking about well, maybe we got to downgrade the us. us exceptionalism. well, that was like the old days. and he's talking about, you know, the time to buy overseas. i mean, look, i they're up so much that i think if i were the president i'd say, you know what? we're

we're going to be tough on these guys. these guys have been real tough on us. but you know what? we're done with the dax being up 13%. us us being down. we're not going to take that. we are france. do we really think that france should be up more than us? i mean, it's time for him to realize that when spain is up this much, it's time to get in the game. get in the game, mr. president. get in the game. i mean, i don't know the swiss. what have they invented? the cuckoo clock. and it's up 10%. >> well, jim, we still have oracle bookings beat. you mentioned the guidance for fiscal 26 and 27 okay. >> oracle is down eight. and look i get that they missed the numbers. but they have $130 billion in backlog 15% increase in overall revenue. now they've got the remaining performance obligations are just 130 billion i happen to like and i know the analyst cut but they're part of the zeitgeist. i happen to respect larry ellison a great deal. i wish it were. i wish

there was a similar respect. it's unreal. it's an unrequited love there, but not with safra. and i think that safra catz made a really good case about how next year is going to be just blowout, or maybe even the second half. they got 100 days more than 100 data centers. i wish people listened to the call rather than watch the headlines. >> do you think. >> this is. >> really. >> do you think this is sniffing out a capex cycle that will crack? i mean, it can't as a percentage of revenue, they're going to spend almost half. >> they want hundreds. they want hundreds of data centers in oracle because they want to capture things. i think that if you take a look at i know people may not do this, but if you take a look at grok, which is a company separate from tesla that's owned by musk, grok has broken out and is well ahead of all the other agents. why? they have the most nvidia chips. and if you go to grok and you ask it about something, it's no longer it doesn't read like google

anymore. it's a really incredible in-depth analysis. why? because it scrapes twitter. and twitter has the most up to date. fantastic. and by the way, it's so smart. it gets rid of all the junk. and i go to it. you know, they had really good. you type in oracle. they had a really good analysis of last night. you type in asana where the ceo decided mysteriously to decide, hey guys, i love you. see you later. that was an amazing call, by the way. i mean, we're like listeners. like what? he dropped the mic. if you go and you read the oracle grok, it's superb. if you go and read the asana grok, it's superb. these are done last night. grok is now doing real time. the other guys i don't know. i mean, i don't know zuckerberg i don't know. but it's great. instagram. >> yep. meta is now working with their their ai training chip. >> well they got. >> to. >> lessen dependance. >> on nvidia. >> they got training wheels. this is just i mean i just like i was sick at one point i just said oh my god grok has more

than i can say. i read the conference calls. i studied the analyst note, but so did grok. and grok got a lot of game. i finished my work at 730. grok was done at four. >> so you're it's now your favored. >> the others are just the others are dead. >> i mean this we've we've seen the pole position change over. >> and over again. >> this thing secretariat i went to see secretariat's grave and honor secretary. it's not bad. kentucky horse park. and this thing grok is secretariat. it's really frightening how good it is. >> are you willing to transfer that enthusiasm to tesla in the wake of this? >> adam jonas. >> separate and. >> and the president 1214 is buying a tesla. there you go. >> yeah. adam jonas today says he can envision both hitting the $200 bear case and the $800 bull case in 12 months. >> tesla's down enough. i mean, let's say next week jensen talks about the gtc conference, talks about the humanoids. those are that that that is tesla and the

self-driving. we've forgotten about that. that is tesla that could save waymo could save google because i would no longer when you put rock against google, i wish people would go to grok. they would probably crash it because it's the speed with which they come up with things and the and the intelligence. you can ask it. i mean, i asked it what i've been saying about the mach seven, it boom everything. i mean, it's like, wow. i mean, this thing is just extraordinary. it's just unleashed itself. it's a monster. >> well. >> for big party yesterday, it was inaccessible because of the twitter crash. >> well. >> which musk then blamed on ukraine. >> well. >> elements regarding ukraine. >> well i can tell you is the scraping off of off of formerly twitter. now x is extraordinary and my hat's really off to musk. another unrequited love affair there. but it's really extraordinary. and i encourage people to realize the time frame of how quickly they can scrape and how they came up with asana, which is, by the way, a disaster

instantly. and their analysis of oracle is far more positive than what's happening right now. and i agree with their more positive analysis overall. >> jim, seeing some weakness in the travel names, as we mentioned, expedia, one of the biggest s&p losers. >> last last great bull market watch fintech fintech bottoms before actual fin fintech is like the best place to you know mastercard is a travel travel related company. i would watch that. i would watch visa, another travel related company, because those have been part of the cohort. if they can overcome travel and the firms of the world can overcome with a buy now, pay later, you're going to see a rally, you will see a rally. and i have to tell you, the one that has to remember, you need to see j&j down. you need to see smucker down, because that's where all the money went to. and that was ridiculous. that's just a program done again by incredibly sloppy traders who don't know how to trade. but they're kids. they don't know how i could have taken colgate. i could have done

the colgate as part of the program and kept it at 93. but these clowns don't know how to trade and they have really burned their clients. and if i were one of the clients, i would fire the 22 year old kid who handled the program i would send him. i would actually send him back to college. i she certainly didn't go to graduate school. not that that should matter. >> i mean. >> one of the beneficiaries of that sentiment has been names like t, which gave up, has given up a little bit here. >> you know, verizon. it's they said it was a competitive situation. i think at&t i've been much more bullish on stankey. i think he probably has more positive things to say. t-mobile i want to hear about mike sievert. i want to hear what he's saying because the stock's down nine. and if he comes out and says, listen, i'm sticking with this or it's going to be great, that can have a turn because it was competitive. verizon's not. they were verizon was more competitive last quarter. so that's one to watch. i'm watching things like schwab. i'm watching things like because i want to see fintech and i want to see. >> robin. >> by the way. hood yesterday,

second worst day in its history. >> and their vladtenev had a terrific quarter that needs to make a stand. that stock has gone from 66 down to 36. that must make a stand because vladtenev came here and said he was on two different shows and said that the quarters are terrific. let's see that. make a stand. you need to see companies make a stand that had great quarters. and again, the one that had the best quarter in tech was one that just occurred on thursday night, which was hock tan. he had literally the best quarter. he's got three new clients that he didn't reveal. who are hyperscalers? watch watch watch. yes. and then see if marvell can possibly rally. that's the stock that's almost been cut in half and below where where matt murphy bought $1 million worth of stock. you can take a look at that stock again. it's erased the entire move. so marvell is important. visa is important. t-mobile is important. schwab is important. robinhood is important. colgate j&j and most importantly, smucker, which had a really bad quarter and has moved up ten since. >> yeah, as we said, presenting

at the b of a consumer. >> i don't think they have a lot. anyway, look, twinkies is not a good acquisition. and i think look, i think mark is a very good executive, but i think you have to explain away twinkies in an era of glp one where lily remember, will lily passed tesla. that's why. remember the magnificent. >> seven last week? >> it's the okay ten because i don't have seven, right? leonard was downgraded. thanks for nothing. i mean, the homebuilders are just they've crashed. what happens if we have two weeks of good sales of goods? we should call doug yearley if they have two weeks of good selling season, because, i mean, axios has a piece today about how, you know, how terrible housing is. i mean, mortgage rates have come down and housing has come down. and i love axios. but you know, i deal with week to week and day to day on housing. you could say maybe i'm too ephemeral, but i say i'm just better. jim sounded horrible. >> i know we touched on kohl's a moment ago, but down 16 this is this is going to be an all time low going back as far as my data goes. >> kohl's is they have real

structural problems and they have sephora i mean when i go to my kohl's you know it's like wow okay well what do you have. it's existential recalls and what has to happen. and by the way it better not be existential with macy's because macy's is closing my macy's in brooklyn. but that's not what i'm macy's has got to stop going down because that was not a good quarter. but this is the age of walmart and costco. and there isn't anything i get at kohl's that i can't buy at those two. and remember walmart took a lot of the people from target. and that's why when i look at the at the clothes at target and i look at the clothes at walmart, they're very similar except for walmart's prices are lower. >> target's another one that's going to be interesting. you know we're in the middle of this widely publicized boycott 40 day boycott of the chain. ap wrote it up over the weekend. >> well. >> you know, by the way, there should be no boycott of costco. they stuck by die. and one of

the reasons why i do some work and why they stuck by die, they said we're the greatest retailer in the world and the most profitable. so like, why scrap it now? i mean, you know, you had millichamp he's the cfo now. he's from kroger, and he's not going to ever top the elocution and brilliance of richard galanti. and he would never richard glanton would never say choiceful. what is choiceful? what do you make up? what is that like the guys from britain? i mean, maybe it's dickens. i'm going to go over and read dickens again, who was a great writer. he was the stephen king of it, yes. but i do feel that we have to see target bottom at a 4% yield. we got to see walmart bottom. but all of these things can bottom. >> yeah. you know the names you talk about making a stand jim. two names are interesting netflix and spotify, which had been under unusual pressure relative to their space in the last week or so, managing to hold some losses here. >> and i think that those are wrong. i think the business is very good. those are subscription businesses, really. the holy grail is subscription, amazon subscription, netflix subscription spotify. i think spotify is doing incredibly well. the decline may just be a

function of how high it went, but they're doing very well right now. netflix is doing very well, so i don't know. those are natural places to go if you think there'll be a rally. and i remember i'm constructive on the market because i don't think if the, you know, if president trump were to speak softly and carry, i don't know, a howitzer, he doesn't have to do big stick. he can do the howitzer thing. he can speak softly and have nuclear weapons, anything but speak loudly and not have a howitzer, because that doesn't work. mark carney is taking on the president. and mark carney, goldman sachs, bank of england, bank of canada, father of four daughters. >> well, i think it speaks to how angry some canadian citizens. >> are. >> but we don't need to make them angry. you think ryan reynolds is ryan reynolds? what a great guy. hey, if ryan reynolds came out and said, you know what, this is all nonsense. but he's. why should he do that? father? canadian mounted police. when i did sit next to carney, what did he talk about? i got two daughters. he's got four daughters. there's a great guy.

>> yeah. >> no need to antagonize. >> the other big news this week, jim, is energy with sarah week. chevron's mike wirth did talk a bit about where energy policy is going. take a listen. >> that interview was great. it was great. >> great. >> swinging from one extreme to the other is not a it's not the right policy approach in a. long cycle industry. like this one, where we allocate capital that's out. >> there. >> for decades. >> and so. >> we really need consistent. and durable policy. >> we heard this from exxon regarding climate policy. please don't either do it. don't do it, but just don't change it. >> well, right now, mike, i was on one of his platforms in the gulf and i said, listen, what do you do if trump wins? are you going to scrap everything he says this is a ten year project. what happens if we get a democrat? and he said, we can't do that. we just have to because he's got a lot of solar. the thing runs on solar. i like mike. i'm glad to see the stocks back. this has been rallied. don't forget in dividend. yeah high yielding stocks. and mike's got mike has got high yield.

it's also a natural gas rally which by the way is directly linked to data centers. so i don't really want oil and gas here. they're yielders. and we have a president who wants to flood the zone with oil to get oil down in order to be able to deal with as an offset to the tariffs. but that's so convoluted. it's so convoluted. >> five dhs we do have gasoline. futures for this time of year, lowest since 2020. >> well. >> and i'm not willing to give up, you know, do you think that we're really do you give up on disney here. i don't i think you know really because travel is bad for a couple of weeks. i think that disney is more oil and gas related than it is a plane. but i see the stock going down. i'm not. you don't need a you know you know, you don't need a. >> weatherman to. >> get which way the wind blows. >> yes. >> dow is down 200. s&p holding into a gain of about two points. watch bonds. we got nfib jolts coming up in about 12 minutes. >> gantlet. >> as we continue to watch that level around 4.2 for the ten year this morning trading just above it near four and a

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transforming and redefining leadership in the world of business. request an invite at. >> cnbc events. >> com slash changemakers. >> take a look at the dow this morning. down about half a percent. you can see verizon is the biggest laggard. although the biggest winner this morning is nvidia which interestingly is the biggest laggard year to date. >> jim perfect setup right now. >> the perfect setup. perfect setup. >> and look when it was up this morning at 4 a.m. i was like dying. i said oh my god, they're just going to crush us. unfortunately there's like a half dozen stocks in the dow that have bid up ridiculously by that stupid program where the guy didn't know how to do his trading. he just called me in. i'm, like, busy running the government. busy trading. fine. i'll take it all. i got a lot of time on my hands. servicenow is one to watch, by the way, that's holding in. >> with some m&a news this week. >> with some m&a news this week. we will get stop trading (shower water runs) (♪♪) (orange is peeled) (♪♪)

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that's my secret to better odor control everywhere. >> let's get to jim and stop trading. >> give me a lot of stocks that need to go down. let's talk about dicks. when i came in, dick's was down ten points. dick's. the conference call is incredibly very very very bullish. lauren hobart doing a terrific job. she's not promotional. i want to point out again that the comparable store

sales 6.4%, that's far better than people thought. again, we're in a difficult situation, carl. you look at headlines and the headlines are so often wrong these days that they happen so fast. and they just scrape and they scrape incorrectly. and i think that lauren, because she's not promotional, was not able to get the story out in the headline. but dick's had a really good quarter. and you know, if you look at the stock year over year, two years, it's really extraordinary. so that stock has now rallied nine points from where it was. if that goes green then i think you asked me earlier about consumer discretionary. that will be the one to watch. it's got to go green. it's not enough yet. but that's the one that can save consumer discretionary. >> yeah 10% doesn't hurt. >> no. >> and 3 billion. >> is great quarter. i mean you know okay so the outlook i know the forecast is the forecast. i'm wise enough to know that i didn't get i didn't fall off a turnip truck. but i do think that there's that i could make a very good case 362 versus 354 sales got a little light. but again, they're very conservative

and they're the ticket. the price is up a lot. price is a lot. i got agnico eagle tonight. well that's great. buy gold instead of bitcoin perhaps. and maybe michael saylor will go borrow a lot of money and buy gold. we could get that thing to break out. that's. sailor's got firepower. he has unlimited firepower. >> you know. >> with. >> these new. >> preferred's even more. >> yeah. >> maybe he takes over as the trade rep, too. i mean, the whole thing. and don't forget, the president needs to buy another 500,000 teslas to get that. where we need 500,000. maybe that's tonight. >> stream. >> so then deliveries can go positive. >> why not? he's rich. >> jim. we'll see you tonight. mad money. 6 p.m. eastern time. as we just getting started here as we just getting started here at 5606. don't go -what've you got there, larry? -time machine. you gonna go back and see how the pyramids were built or something? nope. ellen and i want to go on vacation, so i'm going to go back to last week and buy a winning lottery ticket. -can i come? -only room for one. how am i getting home? sittin' on my lap like last time, ronald. fine, but i'm bringing this. [ whirring ] alright.

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♪♪ that's how we live vyvidly with vyvgart hytrulo. visit livevyvidly.com or talk to your neurologist. ♪♪ comcast business helps turn the pga tour into a... or talk to your neurologist. ...ticketless-ticketing... ...multi-shot-tracking... ...birdie-putt-obsessing... ...swag-securing... ...global-broadcast- orchestrating... ...will billy be a-winning? easy, rich. no, jinxing. ...tee shot-mashing ...absolutely thrilling ...game-changing golf experience. powering the connectivity of the pga tour. comcast business >> good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. >> i'm carl. >> quintanilla with leslie picker and michael santoli live at post nine of the new york

stock exchange. david and sarah on assignment. bulls hoping for a tuesday turnaround. nasdaq trying to get to work on that up about half a percent. some of the corporate guidance coming in a little bit soft especially regarding travel. but it's not all red. and the ten year just around four and a quarter. >> unfortunately the movers were watching this morning not experiencing that rebound. we're about 30 minutes into the trading session. and here are those movers. dick's sporting goods and kohl's under pressure after disappointing guidance from both names. dick's down about half a percent. kohl's down about 15%. a similar story for the airlines. delta shares dropping after cutting its profit forecast. american also slashing guidance and southwest lowering its outlook and announcing plans to charge a fee for ec bags for the first time. we'll dig deeper into the airlines later this hour and oracle, under pressure after missing earnings estimates. the company also issuing weak revenue guidance. more in the street's reaction and the big tech trade coming up. >> let's get some jolts data. just crossing the tape with rick santelli. morning, rick.

>> good morning carl. indeed. if you. look at. >> the markets. >> you're looking at interest rates at the highs of the session. >> and equity markets. >> doing better. why? because job openings and labor turnover known as jolts comes in better than expected. january read expected to be around 7.6 million, comes in at 7,740,000. now, the good news is. >> of. >> course, that this is a bit better. sequentially than the slightly revised rear view mirror, which. >> was 7.508 million. and that was the. >> four year. >> low in. >> terms of the openings pace. so indeed a bit of a bounce. we see that right now we're hovering at. 423 and a ten year. that's up a couple of basis. >> points on. >> the day. 390 and a two year up one basis point. and of course this is all after the. >> equity markets. >> continue to experience a significant amount of volatility based on a significant amount of

uncertainty, with revised with revisions to potential tariffs of the past, how it may look in the future market continues to grapple with some of these details. carl, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much rick santelli. stocks, in fact, are rebounding a little bit after yesterday's drop. the dow and the s&p with their worst day since mid mid-december. nasdaq's worst day in about three years. that so-called fear index the vix spiking to its highest level since december. mike what are you watching this morning. well we're in that zone of a correction of a sell off where everyone's kind of looking at the same metrics and trying to figure out if they've gotten extreme enough. if it's gotten so bad, it's good. in terms of the four selling we saw yesterday afternoon, just how oversold a lot of the market is. the leadership of this downside has been the previous upside leadership of course, which the mega-cap growth stocks. so a lot of street commentary leslie, as you know, trying to handicap where we are in this process of forced repositioning out of the old momentum growth leaders. most of the metrics say kind of

almost done. maybe it's getting mopped up right now. we did overnight, the s&p futures were down about 1% below where they were. they opened today. so there was another attempt at breaking it and getting it down. it wouldn't surprise me if we need to go and check out that level and just see if that if that one holds the standard playbook says you don't want a tepid rally to start one of these days. all that being said, you know, 10% corrections are kind of normal. but there's this abnormal mix of things, i think, feeding into this, which is that momentum reversal. at the same time you're talking about, you know, the cyclical trade is getting compromised by the by the recession fears. and obviously the global situation where other cyclical stocks in other parts of the world are taking up the slack from ours. so i would argue that a lot of this has been the repositioning move, but nobody sees a moment of where an all clear is going to be declared right, because we are still dealing with more tariff noise. we are still dealing with this effort to essentially say we're not

playing for a near-term economic acceleration. speaking of tariff noise, the president just now crossing the tape here, taking steel and aluminum tariffs out of canada, are on imports from canada to 50% of the 25. this will go into effect tomorrow morning, he says. also says he's going to declare a national emergency on electricity. and that might explain the small air pocket mike that we just hit. yes. i don't know what a emergency declaration allows him to do, because of course, the mechanism for the presidential imposed tariffs are you have to declare some sort of state of national emergency. so we'll see, because of course, the province of ontario has threatened to put tariffs on exports of electricity to the us. obviously, this is one of the reasons nobody's able to get comfortable with the macro situation. so it's much more about are we in the neighborhood of a some kind of tactical trading low? probably. usually when we get to the ultimate low you don't spend a whole lot of time there. you know, you get a

snapback. so i still think that there's a lot to prove for the first rally, but it's probably not too far away. >> and it speaks to the market psychology right now. a lot of notes this morning talking about just the sell rally mentality that's still pervasive, while also noting that we may be in the eighth or ninth inning of the washout here, just given the positioning of hedge funds in particular, which seem to be responsible for some of this hedge funds reducing their exposure to stocks more recently, and i think goldman analogized it to what they saw during 2020, during covid, as you saw just this aggressive unwind taking place all at once in a pretty narrow, you know, place in the market, which i wonder, mike, do you do you take any comfort in that, that it does seem to be. >> not really. i mean, because that could easily be like, oh, this is an overshoot. you know, basically it's just about, you know, people got caught off off balance. or it could be, look, we're under the 200 day average. a lot of strategic money decides to go to the sidelines around

that point. and i don't think people see a clear path to raising earnings estimates, you know, anytime soon. so that's why we didn't exactly build up a big valuation cushion. so it's much more about, you know, do people have some dry powder. do you want to just buy a break in a bull market. you know, it still is a bull market until proven otherwise. our next guest does say that yesterday's sell off was an overreaction. joining us here at post nine fundstrat's tom lee is with us. tom, it's great to have you back. welcome. yeah. >> great to. >> see you. why do you say overreaction? >> well, to. >> yesterday really was an indiscriminate selling day. did tesla's. >> valuation and fundamentals drop 15%? >> you know, did the. >> broad market have a 4%. >> decline in valuations? to us it really looked like a lot of liquidation. i think investors are of course. >> reacting. >> to the white. >> house warning of pain ahead. but it has. been more of an equity. selloff than it has. >> been. >> in corporate bonds. >> so to us it.

>> you know 4% down days. yeah i. >> think it's an overreaction. >> yeah. how do you best explain that difference between what equities have done and what we've seen in ig and even even high yield. >> well i think. >> on the. >> stock side, markets. >> are now saying look the new. regime is we have to take the. tariffs seriously. >> now we don't. >> know how long these tariffs. >> might be. >> will it hurt growth. and we've seen cuts from economists. but the bond market is saying well you know what this is a growth scare. but the. >> fed. >> is also now. >> in a. >> position to begin cutting. >> because inflation. >> pressures are abating. so i think the bond. >> market is sort of pricing. >> in a fed. >> put the. >> stock. >> market saying. >> i'm not sure. >> if there's. >> a white house put and then the. >> fed's on hold. and i think. >> that's the divergence. >> so which one should we be listening to. >> well i. >> think the fed put. >> in. >> effect is probably coming back because. the odds of a may cut have been inching up. they hit 54% yesterday. and in fact total cuts hit three and a half cuts, which is now two and a half or one and a half more than

the fed's guided. >> but i think. >> that the trump. >> put exists. >> i mean. >> i know. >> they've. >> explicitly said. >> there isn't one. but look at yesterday tesla is down 15%. and on truth social donald trump talks about tesla. so i think a. >> put exists. >> we just don't know the level when the white house intervenes. >> and then. >> today's the business roundtable. >> we'll find out. >> he does. but then he kind of ratchets up the dialog as it pertains to the trade war. this morning on truth social, regardless of all of the headlines surrounding tariffs and the trade war and what it means for growth and what it means for the market reaction. >> that's right. and for a while, markets ignored those. tariff headlines, and now. >> they're taking it. >> very seriously. but i think at the end. >> of the day. >> if we take every. >> headline at. >> face value, then markets are completely paralyzed. and of course that again creates opportunity because at some level all these stocks are really attractive opportunities. you know, especially something that's had a 50% drawdown. >> i mean you can talk about the nasdaq being an overreaction at a 4% down day. but tesla was up half $1 trillion in two months

at the end of last year. i mean, was that an overreaction to the upside? this is what we're trying to figure out, right? where do we start out with in terms of valuation and investor expectations coming into this period when it's become a little bit more noisy? yeah. >> well, there used to be this. term a while ago called rage selling. you know, and i think these days with instant liquidity, markets have rage selling. and i think it's not just individual. i think institutions push a button and. >> go flat. >> so i think. >> that. >> you know, we're. >> getting whipsawed. >> these days and i don't know where to titrate that. like. was tesla worth. double what it was compared to november. and now is it worth half? i'm not sure, but i think it's somewhere in between. >> meantime, there's still a lot of desk notes about cta supply and the next five days there's plenty to sell you buyer that even if we bounce today, it's going to be more of a process. >> well, you. >> know. >> i think positioning does tell us we're stretched to the downside. and we know markets

are oversold. and we know sentiment is bad. i think i guess the real tell is we need to have follow through, because last week felt like we could be bottoming and we failed monday. but do i think that, you know, a 10% correction, you know, shouldn't happen? i mean, this is like the sixth correction of 8% or more since 2022. >> so it is pretty. >> garden variety. >> but you. >> know, getting down more than 10% to me is like, we've got proof of recession. and i think that that's why the data points next few weeks are going to matter. >> yeah. so if we if we do draw down ten you'll want to talk again. yes. okay. tom. >> thanks. >> yeah. well, maybe before tom lee, thanks so much. >> thanks. >> as we head to break, here's our roadmap for the rest of the our recession talk ramping up. we'll discuss if it's becoming a real possibility. >> plus a number. >> of warnings from the airlines about a consumer slowdown. we'll break it down and take a closer look at what's ahead for the major carriers. mag said the names wiping out billions in the selloff. every stock in the

group now in correction or bear market territory. we'll talk about whether or not it's a buying opportunity, as we do bounce a bit from that brief air pocket. dow down 350. stay with pocket. dow down 350. stay with us. got eyelid itching, crusties and swelling that won't go away? it could be... demodex blepharitis! and we're demodex mites. we're very common and super irritating to your eyelids... but we love making ourselves comfortable here! (♪♪) oh yeah... steam time! if demodex mites are partying it up on your eyelids... it's time to eliminate the root of the problem with xdemvy. with one drop in each eye twice a day... you can kill the mites... uh oohhh ...in just 6 weeks. xdemvy is the first and only fda-approved treatment that kills the mites that cause demodex blepharitis... ...a common eyelid disease. avoid touching the tip of the bottle to your eye or other surfaces to minimize contamination. wait 15 minutes before inserting contact lenses.

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falling for a second straight month while maintaining most of its post-election gains. but uncertainty remains near an all time high. the national federation of independent business optimism index fell to 100.7 for post-election high of around 105, hovering around its long term average, though it's down a lot like a lot of sentiment indicators, but not, you would say, at recessionary levels right here. expectations in the survey, they were a bit more worrisome. the net percent of those who expect the economy to improve declined expecting higher real sales, saying it's a good time to expand and increasing employment. all of those were net negative. and this nfib uncertainty index, just one of them out there, second highest level ever higher than at any time you can see there than than in the first trump administration. now a research paper from 2016 points out there is an elevated chance of recession in the year after a presidential election, due in part to policy uncertainty. the paper found that from 1946 to 2016, 46% of all recessions happened within 12 months of a

presidential election. that compares with the normal expectation of 1 in 4 25%. the paper, written by none other than the president's top economic advisor, kevin hassett. it discusses, by the way, the stock market impact of uncertainty and what happens when administrations change policies in an extreme way. quote, if the shocks to markets from recent us elections have been polarization shocks wherein the revealed platforms of the candidates are more extreme than had been anticipated, this would constitute a second order shock to stock market returns. so in today's context, the market may be moving from pricing tariffs that they thought were just for negotiations to tariffs, no matter what that is. it's not uncertainty maybe over policy now but uncertainty over but certainty over what many in the market consider to be bad policy. >> carl and steve, you brought up a really interesting point yesterday afternoon, which was this idea of what the market anticipates with regard to if there is some sort of recession,

will we see any, any saving from the federal government, as we have seen in the past few recessions? and the question is kind of surrounding the deficit, whether that's untenable these days. how do you think about that aspect of the political versus the economic situation right now? >> so this is an interesting question. there's a thing called automatic stabilizers, unemployment insurance, other programs out there from the government that kick in their automatic. when you have a recession, those things should still be there. but on the other hand, you do have declining federal spending. a lot of times, the federal government will step in with additional spending in order to help the economy smooth over those parts where private sector aggregate demand declines. this time, to the extent that we have a drag on the economy, at least part of it is going to come from the federal government itself, and then maybe also state and local, depending upon how much from the federal government filters down to that level. so it's a really

interesting and perplexing thing to game out, which is how much of the drag comes from the federal government to begin with, both employment and spending and how that would work in terms of when there if there is a downturn, how that exacerbates potentially the situation compared to other downturns we've had. >> yeah, big change from like 4 or 5 years ago when people were saying, oh, we figured out we don't have to have recessions. the government can just do do what it did. steve, thanks very much. >> i just i just add real quickly, this looks to a lot of people. i think you've heard it before. others say it. it looks like an own goal on the part of the administration here that, you know, the first rule of parenting and economic policy is don't scare the children, right? >> you got it, steve. all right. thank you very much. our next guest warns of sluggish growth ahead, forecasting that a coming bout of stagflation will be nothing like the 1970s, but still a major challenge for the fed, which will remain on the sidelines much longer than markets appreciate. diane swonk,

kpmg chief economist, joins us here on set. diane, good to see you. >> good to be here. >> so let's just i guess, define our terms here, what we're looking for in the way of stagflation, i guess. you know, essentially risks on both the growth and the inflation side that might keep the fed static for a while. >> exactly. so the economy is slowing. >> there's no question about that. and in fact. the drag. from government spending. >> we know that. >> cuts to social programs and transfers to nonprofits. >> contracts. >> all of that ripples through the. >> overall economy. that's dampening. >> growth at the same time. >> tariffs squeeze. profit margins, but. >> so much so they have to. >> pass some on to consumers. we know in 2018 and 2019. >> all of. >> the tariffs were passed on to consumers. >> the magnitude and breadth of what. >> we're talking about. >> just can't be. >> so you get this. >> odd combination of. a creeping up unemployment rate and. >> an elevated inflation. >> we have inflation peaking out in. >> the second quarter at 4.1% annualized pace. that's not, you know. >> anything like. >> what we.

>> saw. >> during the blistering. >> inflation right. after the pandemic. but while the. >> embers of inflation. are still. >> smoldering, that's something the. >> fed. >> has to be worried about. and those. >> higher inflation levels and. the layered and. compounding effects of these tariffs that keeps the fed on the sidelines throughout the latter half. >> of 2025 and not really cutting until 2026. >> how will tomorrow's cpi number, if at all, filter into this? it seems like there's an opportunity for the market to find some relief if it's a benign number, but maybe it's. >> backward looking. >> yeah. >> it doesn't have any of the tariffs in it yet. >> although there was front running. >> and we've. >> seen everything. >> from steel prices, aluminum. >> lumber all. >> pick up in anticipation of tariffs. we've also seen trade imports of those goods soar in anticipation of tariffs. >> trying to stock up ahead. >> of it. but that was its own self-fulfilling prophecy with the fed's. >> also worried. >> about is. >> this time around we have this muscle memory. and you saw it. >> in the. >> nfib index. >> as well. >> we recently. >> raised prices. >> in the 20 tens. we not. >> only had well-anchored

inflation expectations. >> they were sentenced to met. now we've been through a. >> period where not only. >> do consumers. >> expect some. >> level of inflation. >> but we saw in the. >> nfib index that. >> actually the highest number of. >> small businesses. >> are raising. >> prices already. >> and that is, you know, something they didn't. >> do in the past. >> so that's 2021. that's now you're getting to one of the big arguments that the administration likes to give. and that is tariffs didn't create any massive inflation in our first administration. you think the calculus regarding pricing has changed. was that a covid. >> that's one of one is the. >> context is different. >> but to the. >> speed and magnitude. >> of these. >> tariffs, the effective tariff rate back in 2018. >> and 2019. >> popped up to about 3.25%. we're talking. >> about conservatively. >> on our. >> baseline with not. >> everything that's been announced. and some, you know. >> scaling back. >> 16.5 that. >> i've. >> seen some adverse 20 fives. >> we can our downside scenario. >> has 25 on the effective rate. >> and that.

>> is working. >> with our own tariffs. >> and custom people internally. that is. >> remarkably big difference. >> and it also. >> because it comes unevenly and. >> sequentially and they. >> add on to. >> each other. in fact some of the steel tariffs. >> coming in from china still. coming in from china, could. >> not only. >> get a. 25% tariff and. >> another 25% tariff. >> and then you add on. >> to that an additional. >> 10% and 10%. >> that 70%, and. >> that you could accumulate it. >> over the. >> course by spring. >> that's a lot. >> given all of that, how would you handicap the likelihood of stagflation? and if so, what do you think that means for certain asset classes? >> well. >> clearly we're more worried about. >> stagflation than we are about other. >> scenarios out there. people looking for the fed to. cut as. >> soon as june. we think. >> that's hard for the fed, even as the economy slows. >> the hardest part. >> for this is the. >> manufacturing sector. on one. >> side of it, the steel. >> industry gets protected. we know. in 2018 and 2019. >> they actually added jobs. >> but no capacity. >> in response.

>> to the protections. they got. >> those job losses. >> those job gains were more. >> than offset. >> by the. >> higher input. >> costs that. >> manufacturing was. >> struggling with. >> and the losses. >> in manufacturing employment overall. and i. >> think that's where. >> we see it the most, is in the. >> goods sector. >> but you're also seeing. >> it in the tech sector. >> this really goes. across asset classes. >> even restaurants. >> looking at the amount that they import in terms. >> of food. >> and all their utensils. >> we're talking. about even taxing the kitchen sink here. >> the stainless. >> steel sinks are going to be taxed at. >> a 25% rate coming into this country. >> yeah. >> it's a lot a lot of friction thrown at this economy. diane, thanks a lot. thank you. meantime, in this new truth social post on expanded steel and aluminum tariffs, the president also targeting some autos saying, quote, if other egregious long time tariffs are not likewise dropped by canada, i will substantially increase on april 2nd the tariff on cars coming into the us, which will essentially permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in canada. those cars can easily be

made in the usa, he writes. our phil lebeau joins us this morning to talk about whether phil. that's true. >> is that what you're asking? karl? the answer to that question is. >> theoretically, yes, they. >> could be. will it happen tomorrow? no. because you've got to change your tooling. you've got to find the. capacity in order to move those vehicles that are built in canada down to the united states. and by the way, talking with executives in the auto industry, there's paralysis amongst the auto industry in the c-suites. why, yes, they understand that the administration wants production brought back to. >> the united. >> states, but the production for vehicles is set up by region, and north america is a region, and you just can't move a plant from one country to another and have it done overnight. i've done some game planning, you know, or asking for a. game plan from people who work with the automakers. minimum, minimum to set up a new plant three and a half to. >> four years. >> minimum cost, 3.5.

>> billion, maybe. >> $4 billion. if you are an executive and you know that the administration wants you to move production here. >> to the us. >> while on one hand you want to be on the good side of the administration, on the other, you have to sit there and say, wait a second, can we even do this? is it even feasible to move an entire plant into the united states? >> what's more. >> likely to happen is that those plants that may have some excess. capacity is where you will see some production brought from canada or from mexico into those plants in the united states, while the automakers are trying to figure ■out how they'e going to handle this on a long term basis. >> phil, obviously there are no real canadian owned auto companies, right? this is directed at the big three, principally, 100%. right. you know, i have to believe. >> that, by the way. go ahead, mike. >> it's not just the. >> big three. it's directed. at canada. because you look at toyota. toyota builds the rav4 and some lexus models up in

canada. >> look. >> the rav4 is. >> wildly popular. >> one of the most popular vehicles sold here in the united states. so you know what this is? this is the trump administration saying to canada, you think you have these plants. think again. we want them. >> down here. >> right? i just have to believe that if people were taking this at face value and saying, this is now going to happen, ford would be down more than 1.6%. i mean, obviously these are these are beaten down cheap stocks in the first place. but i guess it just gets to your point of just nobody knows quite what rules we're going to be playing by. >> correct. they don't know the rules. and they also don't know if this is permanent. and you have to look at it from the auto executive standpoint. why am i going to take the most profitable region in the in the world. and the united states is the most profitable market for them. if the north american automakers, i'm going to cut into my margins and make. >> these billion. >> dollar changes. i'm only going. >> to. >> do that if i know that this

is permanent. and you could make this argument during the first trump administration, and they wouldn't say they waited them out, but they sat there. and at the end of the trump administration, those those threats of, hey, you got to move more production here, all of that dissipated. what's going to happen in a couple of years from now or when by the time we get to 2028, what's going to happen if it's not the trump administration? it won't be president trump if it's a new president, if it's not a republican, you know, is the policy going to completely change? and now you've already committed $3 billion. to build a new plant in the united states? i mean, those are the things that they're weighing. >> that would be the ultimate burn if you went through all the trouble only to see it reversed. and it was all for naught. phil, on the airlines, you've been covering this industry for so long, i wonder how you characterize at least the guidance trims out of delta and american today. >> first quarter near term issues is the way i would look at it. and we asked ed bastian yesterday point blank, do you think we are headed towards a recession? look, these guys have been through many of these economic cycles. they know what a recession. feels like. this

doesn't feel like it. >> to the. >> airline executives, the bookings, while there is some softness domestically right. >> now. >> summer trends look solid and international is not slowing down at all. one last note people have. >> said. >> to me, well, why is. southwest up more than 8%? duh. they're going to be bringing in a lot more money with. >> the bag. policy changing. >> that's a huge game changer for southwest, and i know there will be southwest fans who say, i like the fact that bags fly free. yeah, i think a lot of people like the fact that bags fly free. but you know what? the bottom line is going to improve now that they will be having a policy where they're checking bags and charging bags that are being checked. >> fill a busy day on your beat. phil lebeau, thanks so much. coming up on money movers today, ontario slapping that 25% tax increase on its electricity exports to this country. we're going to talk to premier doug ford about those retaliatory tariffs tomorrow morning. don't miss the ceo of cleveland-cliffs talking the latest around these tariffs. as we just briefly here took our touched yesterday's low

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>> welcome back to squawk on the street. bitcoin hitting four month lows selling off alongside stocks yesterday. hovering right around 80 k a coin this morning. it's now down nearly 25% since hitting an all time high on the day trump was inaugurated january 20th. and it's a similar story for related names, all down 30% or more in that time. you see coinbase, microstrategy, to name a few. >> all right. coming up, how to navigate big tech right here. every name in the mag seven now firmly in correction territory down more than 10%. we'll talk top picks with one portfolio manager who oversees nearly $10 billion in funds. stay with us. >> cnbc. crypto world is sponsored by crypto.com, trusted by over 100 million users worldwide. >> this tiny home trend. not for me. now this is more like it. the same goes for my footwork. so i went hands free with wide

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>> you can sign and make official. >> get started. at trust and wilcom and make it count. >> welcome back. i'm silvana henao with your cnbc news update. ukraine launched its

largest ever drone attack on moscow overnight, killing at least three people. the russian defense ministry said it downed 337 ukrainian drones in total. the attack comes as american and ukrainian officials meet today in saudi arabia for talks on ending russia's conflict with kyiv, the united kingdom's maritime minister says. one sailor is presumed dead following yesterday's collision between a container ship and a u.s. flagged oil tanker. the update came after the royal coast guard said the fire aboard the cargo ship is still burning, while the blaze on the oil tanker has greatly diminished, british authorities say the risk to public health remains low, and local filipino media reports former president rodrigo duterte is on a plane bound for the hague in the netherlands, the home of the international criminal court. authorities arrested duterte late last night as he arrived in manila on an icc warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity over

deadly anti-drug crackdowns he oversaw while in office. carl, i'll send it back to you. >> savannah. thanks. investors this morning digesting the president's latest post on truth social, warning that the u.s. will add an additional 25% tariff to 50% on steel and aluminum coming into the u.s. from canada. megan is at the white house with more. morning, megan. >> hey, carl. >> good morning. >> i have tried to. >> talk with. >> the white. >> house about this to. >> get some additional. >> clarity, and so far they. have nothing further to offer on this one. so we do. >> not know yet. >> whether president trump. is in. touch with his new counterparts in. >> the canadian prime minister's. >> office so far today. >> we do. >> know, though, that he will be talking. >> with ceos later today. >> at the business roundtable, and that's something to. >> watch, because i would expect guys that he gets an. >> earful from manufacturers. >> in particular. and i flagged. >> that. because we know how this went. >> five years. >> ago or. >> a bit longer. >> in 2018. >> the first time president trump. imposed metals tariffs. against canada because canada is the major importer, the major. >> source of u.s. steel. >> and aluminum.

>> more than. half of u.s. aluminum comes in from canada. if you take. >> the. >> next nine sources. >> of. >> it. >> and double. >> it, we still. get more from canada. they're also our top. >> source of steel. we know. >> that president trump. >> had always promised to lift. >> his tariffs. >> against canada or against. >> any country. >> if any. >> of those countries retaliated. >> and we are. seeing that today in a very major. >> way, guys. >> in a way that i. >> would say is going to reverberate throughout this economy. >> and. >> across the. >> markets today as. >> well, guys. >> megan. >> the fact. >> that the white house is saying that it has no more on this at this point, does it tell you anything in terms of whether there is actually the formal process has been initiated to put these into place? is there an eo we have to be looking out for, or. it's just tough to say. >> it's tough to say. >> it could just be morning. >> meeting time. >> it also could signal, though, just how fluid everything is. >> there will. >> have to be paperwork on this because they had already signed the executive order doing the 25% tariff on all imports. >> of steel. >> and aluminum. >> so they will have to formally lift that. >> we do not yet. have an

executive. >> order signing. >> on the. president's schedule today. >> either a private or a public one. >> so that's. >> something to look for. as the first step. we could simply see the paperwork posted online. so far for now. >> it's still. >> a threat until. >> we see something. signed to. >> that effect. >> but there is an. >> impact even in the near term, because companies have to start to react. >> and it. >> adds to this uncertainty. >> that we've. >> been. >> seeing all month. >> megan, we'll look forward to more, hopefully, regarding some business roundtable discussions, too. megan costello at the white house today. let's turn to technology. all mag seven names are in correction or bear market territory. losing a collective roughly $800 billion in market cap after yesterday's sell off. joining us this morning, tony wong runs the t rowe science and tech fund, nearly 10 billion in assets under management. tony, it's good to have you back. we keep hearing not the mag seven but the lag seven. and one of your broader points is that a lot of these beats are simply not getting bought, right? >> yeah, i think that, you know. >> we've seen strong earnings. get sold. >> actually recently. and so i

think to me that means that the market is kind of looking through and suggesting that. these numbers aren't sustainable. and i think to your point of mac. >> seven becoming lag seven, it just. >> is a. >> recognition that. >> the earnings. >> beats aren't as strong as they were the last two years. >> and they're. >> spending record. >> amounts of capex. >> and so investors are further scrutinizing. the roi on these capital investments. and i and just, you know, when you're beating earnings, you're accelerating like the market kind of gives you a lot more leash to spend. and so i think that every. >> earnings from here. >> at this level. >> of. >> spending is going to, you know, probably introduce a lot more volatility as a result. >> have you heard any hint that this capex cycle has the potential to crack? >> so far? >> we're still strong on the. >> demand for. >> ai infrastructure and spending. i think that, you know. there are no real signs of weakness. but i do think that, you know, if we get a macro

weakness, you know, overall broader cycle, like it's hard for, i think, companies not to revise down capex as. >> a result. >> and so far we're still long and strong on it. but, you know, i think that in some ways that adds a little bit of risk because the market doesn't expect any fundamental weakness because the card hasn't been essentially there. so in some ways it's you can see it as a bullish sign or a bearish sign. >> how are you thinking about this most recent ipo drumbeat as someone who invests in technology? it's somewhat surprising. there was the virtual physical therapy provider hinge health, which revealed its s-1 yesterday. fintech firm klarna is reportedly expected to do so as soon as this week. and then you've got core weave, which is expected to start marketing its deal after revealing its ipo filing a week ago. it seems to run counter intuitive to what we're seeing in the broader market backdrop, especially

given some of the recent ipo performance of the 2025 class. how are you thinking about new issues in this environment? is that something that that you're even paying attention to given the volatility out there? >> yeah, absolutely. i think companies that are looking to go public often want to launch in a really strong market. and, you know, i think that just given where the valuation of the public market and like sentiment, i think there's. >> more scrutiny. >> on valuation. and as these companies become public and so and also on execution, i think that a lot of times we see in ipos that went out for pretty lofty valuations, the companies didn't execute. and so i think public markets investors are just a little bit more kind. >> of discerning here. >> and so, you know i think it's you've got to really. >> execute. >> if you're going to go public here. >> tony the turn in apple and this sort of delay of whatever they might have in terms of an enhanced siri, is that a crucial to the case for the company here? at times, apple has acted

as just kind of a big defensive place to hide in the market just because of the predictability. but the stock has reacted to this latest news. >> yeah. >> i mean, i think that apple's often like a safe haven for volatility and historically has been viewed as i think the tech staple when you think about it. i mean, it's got a really strong ecosystem and a very loyal customers. you know, i think depending on valuation, like when it gets to a certain level, like there are that the new. >> ai features. >> will come. so i think if you're getting rumors. >> that you know siri. is going to be delayed. >> or that you know the apple iphone upgrade cycle isn't going to be as strong or, you know, even a weakening environment, i think at a certain valuation, it does tend to react. and so, you know, i view apple still as like the low capex way to play the mac seven. and so if the llms do get more commoditized and, you know, ubiquitous, then, you know, apple hasn't been in this like space race for the frontier model. so on a relative basis it

could be okay. >> finally, tony, everyone is looking ahead to jensen's address next week. i wonder what you think he could say. realistically, that would be reassuring to some of these broader trends we're talking about. >> yeah, it's really exciting. gtc is going to be a big event next week. and so, you know, i think that what he can really focus on is how he is improving the product performance and unlocking new tams, essentially, like we need the cost performance and per watt to essentially improve. and so i think the cadence of the product that he's building out, the ecosystem, the software, increasing the usability of gpus and accelerated compute. you know, i think that would be really helpful to investors and just understand, like every time you drive costs down, you do unlock new tams. you know, i think that investors will be wrestling with the cyclical backdrop and macros. so i think that, you know, he can focus on what he can control, which is his product roadmap. yeah.

>> that's going to be a big tentpole event for certainly tech and the markets at large tony appreciate it on another important day. tony wong thanks. >> cities head of commodities research on these new steel and aluminum tariff announcements. he joins us next. stay with us. >> real time exchange sector sword is sponsored by sector sword is sponsored by sector spider etfs. - [narrator] this is my coffee shop. we just moved into a bigger space, brought on another employee, and ordered new branded gear for the team. it was so easy. i just chose my products, added our logo, and placed my order. bring your own team together with custom gear. get started today at customink.com.

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trends with up to the minute trends with up to the minute news and insights. -what've you got there, larry? -time machine. you gonna go back and see how the pyramids were built or something? nope. ellen and i want to go on vacation, so i'm going to go back to last week and buy a winning lottery ticket. -can i come? -only room for one. how am i getting home? sittin' on my lap like last time, ronald. fine, but i'm bringing this. [ whirring ] alright. or...you could try one of these savings options. the right money moves aren't as far-fetched as you think. there it is. see? told you it was going to all work out. thanks, future me. now with his reaction is citi global head of commodities max layton. max great day to have you here. what is your immediate reaction to this news. >> sure i think. >> thanks for having me on. i think the 25% tariff. >> that. >> trump had.

>> on steel. >> when he was inaugurated, the 10%. >> tariff on aluminum, he's obviously raised them. that's been all about bringing back the industry to the us. >> and securing. >> a domestic supply chain for these key metals steel, aluminum. he's adding copper to that list. he's talked about doing a 25%. >> tariff on on copper. >> so i think. >> that was the. >> initial premise. >> this latest increase in tariff seems to be in response to the negotiations around border security and fentanyl. >> the response of canada to that. >> putting export tariffs. and then, you know, steel and aluminum have now been caught up in that. >> so look, that's the early read. >> we're certainly of the view that the steel aluminum. and in the future the likely copper tariffs will will be sticky. and in fact one of our top trade recommendations that we have out there at the moment is for our clients to be long. comex copper

against short lme copper on. the december contract. and we're expecting that tariff to be at least 25% in line with what trump's talking about. >> at 50%, though. does that change the demand equation >> most likely. >> i. >> think there's you know, there's a window here between when trump has said today that he puts in place. these tariffs. he said he's. >> going to do it tomorrow. >> there's a window of a couple of weeks between now and early april, when we're likely to. have a more calibrated, broader tariff policies announced. and so i look forward to seeing those. >> details. >> max. at the same time, on the energy side, i'm trying to keep track of the latest version of events here, but it seems as if there was going to be perhaps some allowances for canadian crude oil imports, maybe not as tariffs as heavily. and just how does that filter into where we are in terms of supply demand balance in in crude oil. at the

same time opec talking about producing more, producing more. >> sure. >> yeah i. >> mean i think we approach this from the broader context, which is that, you know, trump is, you know, the president of a near $30 trillion economy. and, you know, given the cost of living issues, the high interest rates, the higher than targeted inflation, trump has shown that he wants he needs, and he's likely to persist in using all the tools at his disposal to deliver lower energy prices, specifically oil and over time, electricity prices is where they're where he's focused and where the administration is focused. and, you know, i think that makes a lot of sense in terms of the scale of the potential impact. we've done a lot of work looking at what $60, brant would mean in terms of a deflationary impulse for the us economy. and you're talking about 100, $150 billion, well over half a percent of gdp, deflationary impulse coming from those kinds of oil prices. so

we're not expecting, you know, material tariffs on energy imports into the us from canada as the baseline view. it just wouldn't be consistent with the with the broader drive and push. and you know and need and rush for lower energy prices that trump's trump's been really you know pretty put at the forefront of his policy agenda. >> max administration has been pretty clear. they think production doesn't suffer. even if you got down to say 50. do you think that's true? do you think producers would still find value in production even at those levels? >> so he's he's already talked about tax cuts for the energy industry that that has kind of surfaced. and you know we've been flagging that for a number of months that it was likely that something would come on that front. we haven't seen the details of it, but it could be, you know, for example, tacked on to the broader package. we were really surprised by how how

small the numbers are relative to the scale of the us economy relative to the scale of trump's other commitments in terms of tax cuts, extensions, total capex for the oil, oil and gas industry is around $100 billion. you could really support domestic production via tax cuts or subsidies or other innovative policies. for only around 15 to $20 billion. you could really move the needle on that front. so i think it's plausible that production holds up even at lower prices, but only if you get that subsidy or tax cut. >> really, really good context there. thank you for breaking down the math. the math max layton appreciate it. >> big show coming up on money movers. we'll talk to ontario premier doug ford. they'll respond to the president's latest warning about these steel latest warning about these steel and aluminum tariffs in a (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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stopping at nine point something percent and not getting to touch the touch the hot stove. but we're right there anyway. so we'll see how the market reacts to the afternoon. if it can actually bottom on some tough news that's that's often a sign. >> and that was the threshold that tom lee said that he was watching to that 10% level. notably, all of the major sectors are in the red now, which wasn't the case earlier in the session. >> yeah vix close to 29 money >> yeah vix close to 29 money movers begins after this. that moment you walk in the office and people are wearing the same gear, you feel a sense of connectedness and belonging right away. and our shirts from custom ink help bring us together. we make it easy to wow all your groups with high quality custom apparel and promo products, all backed by our guarantee at customink.com.

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>> weeknights. >> what's really happening is your price to earnings. multiples are shrinking because we sense a mandate for lower prices. so why not just sell? and the mandate is not coming from wall street. it's come from the white house. >> mad money weeknights 6:00 eastern. cnbc. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to money movers. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker here at post nine of the new york stock exchange today. the trade wars show no signs of abating. ontario, canada hiking taxes on electricity exports to the us by 25%. the president responding within the last hour, saying further tariffs will now be enacted on steel, aluminum, agriculture, energy and autos will all be included. we're going to talk to the ontario premier, doug ford, in a few moments. vowing not to back down. >> and canada, not the only ones turning sour on the u.s. city now calling for a pause in u.s. exceptionalism, downgradi.