name on tomorrow's earnings calendar. we're going to hear exclusively from chair and ceo shantanu narayen right here on overtime before he speaks with analysts on the call. >> looking forward to that. meantime, keep an eye on congress as well and specifically the house as we look to see a continuing resolution passed ahead of a possible government shutdown. that does it for us here at overtime. fast money begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq. >> market site in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. >> a roller. >> coaster ride on wall. >> street today, the s&p briefly falling. >> more than 10%. >> from its closing record. rallying on potential. >> tariff relief and progress on a ukraine-russia ceasefire and then settling again into the close. where do we go from here? we'll debate that. >> and is apple the most interesting chart in the market? the iphone maker officially erasing all of. >> its post-election gains. >> why? >> the move has one of our traders intensely watching this name. plus, novo nordisk hits levels not seen in more than a year. two airline stocks move in very different directions, and

how market volatility is impacting retirement planning. i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight. bono and eisen dan nathan guy adami and mike co. we start off with that wild ride for the market. stocks staging a mid-afternoon comeback after canadian. >> officials temporarily. >> suspended a 25% surcharge on electricity put on in response to u.s. steel and aluminum tariffs. news that ukraine agreed to a us led ceasefire if russia accepts bolster the rebound as well. but the major averages couldn't hold their gains into the close. the nasdaq, s&p and dow all ending in the red, the dow finishing down nearly 480 points. we are expecting more comments from the president this hour on tariffs and potentially the markets. when president trump speaks at the business roundtable's quarterly meeting in just a few minutes. in the meantime, let's get to megan costello live at the white house to wrap up all today's news. megan. >> melissa. a day of remarkable back and forth. but at least on the. trade front here at the white house, we are ending. >> up pretty much where we started, despite all the turmoil throughout the day. so this

started early in the day. >> when. >> president trump threatened. >> to. >> raise those. >> steel and aluminum. >> tariffs on canadian. >> imports, up to. >> 50% from 25% where they. >> had already been slated to take. >> effect starting tomorrow. >> he said he. >> was doing. >> this in response. >> to ontario's. >> move to charge a 25% surtax on. electricity imports to three u.s. states. there was then. >> sort of a stalemate. between the two sides. but then a. >> deal struck. >> between commerce secretary. >> lutnick and ontario saying. >> they. would suspend that electricity. surtax in exchange for. >> the threat going back down to 25%. >> but i. >> will say, a white house spokesman. clarified just a few minutes ago in a statement. >> to me that according. >> to the. >> executive order that had already. >> been signed. >> a few weeks ago, all. >> of these tariffs. >> 25% on all. >> steel. >> imports and 25% on all aluminum. >> imports. >> will still take. effect tomorrow. melissa. so could help explain some of this market reaction. a little. >> bit of a tepid. reaction here that. >> yes, the 50% threat is off the table, but this is still. >> a vast. >> escalation of those metal. tariffs from. >> the. >> first term. and a lot more to

come there. on the ukraine front, this was a big source. >> of optimism as well. >> marco rubio, after. >> a day of. >> talks in saudi arabia, along with national security adviser mike waltz announcing. >> that the ukrainians are. >> open to. >> this ceasefire. saying that. >> they. >> expressed readiness. >> to accept an immediate 30. >> day ceasefire. he also announced. >> the u.s. >> will. >> immediately lift the pause on intelligence. sharing and resume its security assistance. >> to ukraine. >> they also say that the two sides are looking to conclude that deal on critical minerals last week. so a major step. >> forward there. >> although, crucially. >> they. >> still do. >> have. >> to bring this to the russians, which the president suggested would happen either later today. >> or. >> sometime tomorrow. >> and they say the ball now is. >> in russia's court. and finally, melissa, as you mentioned, we are waiting for the president to depart from the. >> south lawn. they say. >> they're waiting now. reporters are in the. motorcade waiting now for him to depart for that meeting with ceos. we don't know yet quite how much we're going to see on camera. some of. >> that will be open. >> to reporters. some of it will be closed press. but i was told the president is just looking here to have an open

conversation with american executives, obviously coming amid a major tumultuous time for the markets. melissa. >> megan. >> thank you. >> megan cassella. and what an interesting conversation that should be. just after we've heard ceos speak to their own investors about the change on a dime, basically in consumer confidence in terms of corporate confidence. et cetera. >> guy you see how quickly consumer confidence can turn. in the last reading we got was really miserable. and we have one this friday which is important. cpi tomorrow, which i think is going to be vitally important. but you know people are sitting around probably saying is it over yet? and as much as i'd likeo sayt is over the selling, i don't think it is. you saw the vix at 27. and i'll give you an example of what you were looking for today at 130. the market went from about 55 to 2955 30in the s&p and rallied 100 handles. you would have wanted to see continuation. and by the way, we've seen things like that before. you obviously didn't see it today. in the last hour of the day, we sold off again like we did in the middle of last week. so we're still in the midst of, i think, a market that wants to sell rallies more than it wants to buy dips. >> yeah. and the.

>> headlines, you know, this. >> week, i guess for the last. >> couple. >> of weeks, when you think about cpi, ppi and. >> consumer confidence, yeah. >> they're all backward looking. but when. >> you think. >> about what's. >> going on here, it's. >> not going. >> to help. >> those. going forward. >> even if we. >> keep. >> going back. >> and forth. >> 25 or. >> 50. >> if we keep leaning into. >> our biggest trading. >> partners and. >> our. >> biggest allies. >> that sort of thing. so again, you. >> have the potential. >> for. >> weakening just. >> in the back. >> and. >> forth in. >> the volleys here. >> and the other. >> thing. >> i'll just say is. >> like. >> look at american express. >> and then look at. >> capital one. and you. >> think about. these two. >> different consumers. >> that are customers. >> of these two companies. >> they are. pricing in a recession right now. >> look at what led to the downside. >> in. >> the. >> back of their stock moves. >> yes. >> yeah. you know. >> american express. >> was trading 327. >> this was just. a month ago. and right now it closed. >> at 255. i mean it literally is. >> for sale. capital one is the same thing. jp morgan leading to the downside. today it was acting much worse relative to the other money center banks. >> so, you know. >> i'm really focused on that

group. and i'm not telling. >> you. just because those. >> stocks are selling off, it. means we're going into a recession. but investors are pricing them for. a recession. >> right now. it was stuart kaiser we had on just yesterday from citi saying, you know, the bank trade is really an institutional trade. so you can see the money coming out of the mag seven, for instance, money will go back to the mag seven just because of who wants to hold it. everybody wants to hold it. but the bank trade is really an institutional trade. so when you see the likes of a jp morgan go down and feel the pressure and continue to feel the pressure, that's probably institutions voting with their feet at this point. >> i definitely agree. i will say equity exposure amongst execution amongst. >> institutions still has not rolled over. >> and. >> i. think that will go hand in hand. and not only. >> us being probably. >> ten handles. higher on on the high end of the vix today, but it's probably coming back down to that 3537 type of level. we still haven't really seen. >> those intraday spikes. that really. >> to. me would suggest. >> like utter. >> and relentless capitulation. you know. >> i. >> and i think you know. >> a lot of the stuff. >> you know we focus a lot on the mac seven and the. >> growth area. >> because clearly there's higher beta. and we have seen those exacerbated moves. but to dan's point, you look at the

banks, you look at kohl's, you look you look across the spectrum. we're starting to see these type of moves and names that suggest that they are lower beta, that they are more value or economically oriented. and so while i do think recession fears are a bit overblown, i do think it's a it's a bit of a misconception to assume that being out of growth, a rotation out of growth necessarily saves you from the volatility that we're seeing in the market. >> yeah. mike, what's your take on where we are in the sell off. >> yeah i mean to bronwen's point, if you take a look at the vix and we're trying to determine are we in a period of fear or are we in a period of panic. and i don't think we've quite entered that area of panic yet. you know the top decile for vix readings going back to january of 1990 is probably a close on the high side of 29. >> and that's. >> usually when you start to see that kind of capitulation that you might be looking for. and look you know the s&p isn't exactly cheap here. if we figure a slower growth, which i think is. >> a very. >> reasonable expectation, you know, what are we looking at?

265 270 maybe ish on eps and throw a reasonable turn on that and that gets you in somewhere the 4850 to 5250 range. so to me it's not like the market is cheap yet either. >> yeah, not cheap yet. and you want to see you know, we've talked to so many different people. mandy eshoo, for instance, you want to see correlation right across asset classes. and that includes stocks around the world. if the us is in a deep, deep sell off and they're a true recession fears, that's going to be there's going to be spillover to other parts of the world. and that's just the way it is. you're not going to see europe at highs. >> no i agree with that. no question about it. and you also want to see, you know, what does capitulation mean. to me it means huge volume day to the downside where you flush everybody out 4 or 5 times normal volume. and individual stocks are a huge day in the qs or the s&p. we just haven't seen it yet. and again i think this was somewhat telegraphed. if you look i mean semiconductors again if you want toad their all times in july of last year. we're

coming up almost to a year where these things made their highs. microsoft, which i think everybody would agree is one of the most important stocks and companies in the world. look at that stock. how poorly it's traded since that same time frame. so there have been signs that are warning signs. now the broader market is finally rolling. >> well. >> it's funny, we're. spending a. >> lot of time. >> talking about the. >> potential for a recession. it reminds me a little bit of 2022. right. and we. >> were so. >> focused on that. and the stock market started to price it in. the s&p was down 26% at one point from its 2021 all time highs. the nasdaq sold off about 37%. and we never had the economic recession. we had an earnings recession. and i think that's kind of to mike's point. so the longer a trade war, whether it happens or not, it goes back and forth. i mean, if you're the c level suite in corporate america, you're just kind of sitting on your hands a little bit right now and you're going to these meetings like with trump today, and you're really kind of pleading with him a little bit, you know what i mean? and saying, listen, this is not going to be good for hiring. it's not going to be good for capex. it's not going to be good for r&d. it's not good for them to kind of strain

the relationships that they have with really important trading partners. it's not just the government that worries about these, you know, trade imbalances, but a lot of our companies, the fortune 500, i mean, they rely like a great deal on all of this kind of trade. so to me, i just think if you want to splinter supply chains right now at a very difficult time for the global economy, it just doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense. >> okay, all this being said, is there anything that you put on as a trade, anything that looked interesting in your view? bonawyn tempting. >> that that i have put on or that i would look to put on? >> yeah. or you look to put on have put on. >> i have i dabbled. >> a slight bit yesterday from a trading standpoint. i added to some names. i'm also looking at google. i'm around that 165 level, 162 level. but that's been a name just for you to kind of get a high quality type of high quality growth stock that has been at a suppressed valuation. i also, believe it or not, you know, i it pains me to say it, but it's like, do i vote

with my brain? do i vote with my heart? i think tesla starts to look interesting only because there is just so much momentum in that stock. now. we're not i'm not going to focus on forward earnings. i'm not going to focus on deliveries. none of that stuff matters to that core cohort that is going to live and die by tesla. and i do think when you start seeing 40, 50% retracement, there is going to be somewhat of an urge for people to buy that as a trading vehicle. >> there is an interesting name in the semi. look at what a broadcom has done. i mean remember back in december that guide the stock went up 40%. retraced the entire thing just traded down to the 200 day moving average actually was up today. had a decent day i mean i think broadcom and we talked about this the other day is giving you something to trade against on the long side. >> do you have one more. >> yeah i mean i like the idea of going back to the mag seven. and how do you do that without idiosyncratic risk. you do it through the q-q-q, those top ten names. and i just think that's the one that you want to dollar cost average. if we're going to go from down 13% in the nasdaq 100, possibly to down 20, 25%,

if you kind of average into that over the course of whatever that period is, if it's a bear market that lasts a year, two years from now, you're going to be pretty happy with the pricing that you did. dollar cost averaging. >> let's get more on the markets and volatility and what to expect from tomorrow's cpi print from wells fargo securities. mike schumacher joins us. he's the firm's head of macro strategy. mike always good to see you. you've been meeting no doubt with a lot of big clients. what are they doing if anything. >> ducking and covering at this point to. >> the point many people have made. >> here, the. rules aren't clear. >> the volatility. >> is extraordinary. >> so it's hard to make a big. business decision. >> big investment decision. it's just not the right time to be a hero today. >> what are they waiting for? because one can argue this will go on and on for months and months and months. >> i think. >> the passage. >> of a. >> little more time. >> and also perhaps. >> a little more. >> of a. >> concrete idea. >> from president trump. what exactly does he want to see on tariffs? is it generating revenue? is it targeting particular objectives like fentanyl or is it something else people don't know. maybe we get

some of that in a few minutes today. >> perhaps. >> but i. >> think a little. >> more. >> clarity from him will go a long way to boosting. >> confidence. >> in terms of the cpi prints. it's going to be an interesting print because not a lot was in effect for the month of february. at the same. what do markets want to see out of that number? i mean, i feel like you can make a case for a hotter number or a cooler number. >> they want something low. >> so you think. >> about the last six cpi melissa five were bad and the last one was just awful. so right now the fed's in the penalty box. fed can't do anything. so if the s&p is down 5% tomorrow is the fed more likely to come in. probably not much. so i suspect people will be a lot more comfortable if that number were just. >> a little bit weaker. >> it doesn't have to be an amazing. >> number, just. >> something benign. and jay powell would breathe. >> a huge. >> sigh of relief. >> so michael, you just said they're kind of backed into a corner ish. you know going back to september when they did that 50 basis point cut, they were worried about the employment situation. right. and now they just don't want to see inflation

kind of re-accelerate. so mel's point is like you know, hot cold. it's just like i don't know what the fed can do right now because are they likely to get more dovish if we start to have weaker data after what you just said, five kind of hot prints. >> i think it's going to be a while frankly. so from my. >> perspective, the. >> fed needs to see at least a couple months. >> of. >> relatively decent inflation data before it can do much of anything. so that puts us probably into july. >> best case for a fed cut market's pricing in a cut. >> before then. i think that's incorrect. >> so the market's probably. >> ahead of itself. market's pricing in about. >> two cuts. >> for the second. >> half of this year. that seems a little bit light to me. so most importantly though the market seems to think the fed is just. >> about ready. >> to go. and i would disagree. needs to have better data. the last couple of years. >> volatility has been a one or maybe a two day event. now we're into probably the third week of a vol north of 20. i think people got to get used to it. but you know, what's your take on that. this elevated vol for prolonged period of time. >> yeah. >> we've been talking. >> about the main idea guy for

the last month or so has been that risk premia should go up and. >> we're seeing. >> it day by day. >> so elevated. >> volatility in equities vix. >> is very high. >> fixed income volatility is. >> high fx. volatility is struggling but rising a little bit. >> corporate spreads. >> are out. equities. we don't have to talk. >> about those. we know what the story is. so i. >> suspect this. >> does continue. >> for a while as people come. >> to grips with the idea that, hey maybe it actually is a. >> sustained trade war. >> we haven't seen one of those in a long time, usually don't go so well, and that's going to drive equities to a pretty dizzying state. >> i. >> think. >> in terms. >> of up and down and the same thing for bonds. lots of ball. >> you mentioned that we do spend a lot of time on equities, which is really the main focus of the show. but i'm curious about the fixed income market. what do you believe the implications are for there, and what might be the better trades that emerge out of this whole situation? >> yeah, for. >> fixed income in the us, for us we'd say, look, if the fed is on. >> hold for a while, you probably don't want to be. >> long short. securities like 1 or 2 year. kind of boring but stay out of trouble typically. >> i think going. >> i'm sorry to interrupt, mike. thank you. michael schumacher, wells fargo, president trump is speaking at the business roundtable right now. let's

listen in. >> it's very good. and then this. >> the people. >> in this room, we're going to tie this back together. the people in this room obviously are very interested in all the conversations going on around trade and tariffs that are important here. and then you've also had a large scale effort to root out wasteful spending in the federal government. >> and i believe. there's a thread. >> that kind of ties all that together. and i'm just curious if you could share with us what that is. >> well. >> it's basically. make america great again. we have a bloated, very dishonest in many cases, federal government. >> and bureaucracy. >> that's been. >> a long. >> time coming. >> somebody should have done this many years ago. >> and we're cutting. >> numbers that. nobody's ever seen before. d.o.j. >> as. >> we call. >> it affectionately. >> you've been. >> all hearing. >> that term a lot. ellen's been. >> doing really. >> a fantastic job. >> he he suffers a little bit because of it. >> people go. >> after him. >> but actually if you. >> i. >> think in the end it'll maybe reverse itself and be just the

opposite. that's happened before. there's people that they tend to go. after one. >> group. or another. >> but basically it's the other. >> you have. >> they go after conservatives. >> and when somebody. >> stands up and fights, it ends up their business ends up doubling. you can see that. i just a little example, goya foods. he was just a. >> wonderful man. the owner and family. >> and largely hispanic foods. >> and they. >> went after him because he supported me. and this was the end of the first term, and he fought back, and it ended up that he ended up tripling his business. and it's today a much bigger business than. >> it was before. >> and there are many. >> examples of that. >> and maybe it's going to be that. >> way with ellen. when i. >> saw what was happening. >> with this, you know, the concerted effort by page, i think they're paid agitators. and when i saw what was happening, i said. >> i want to buy. >> a tesla. and we.

>> just went to. the front. >> he had four beautiful cars. >> there. >> and i bought one in front of the press. it was a very public. purchase and they're beautiful and do a great job. >> very good. competitors with mary. >> and everybody else. you know, he's done a great job and he shouldn't be sacrificed or have to. suffer because he wants to help government. it's not that he's a republican, which he's. >> you know. >> not strong. >> i mean, i don't sometimes i'm not even sure what he is in terms of his philosophies. but but he's a great guy. he's a patriot. he wants to see the country straighten out. and he's done a fantastic job with dodge. we've found massive fraud, abuse, waste, and we had many, many jobs where there was nobody working but getting a check. we had contracts that expired years ago, but they were continuously being paid. probably. i'll bet you it's $500 billion. perhaps

if you add it up so far. >> and we're trying. >> to get. >> to $1. >> trillion, that's a big that's a big number. and he did have an ability to do something that a lot of people didn't think of. he'd come in with bigger ideas. we'd say, we want you to cut. down the size of your agency by 2%. and we thought that was good. he came in, he said, 80%. i said, what. >> the hell is. >> going on? 80%. and largely, i mean, we had to do it carefully and we had some little hiccups, not big hiccups, but we saved a tremendous amount of money for the future. this is going into the future. and in some cases it would be 80, and in some cases it would be 5% or 2% or 3%, you know, depending on the agency. but and you can almost you're all great professionals, the top, and you can almost look at some of the agencies and see which ones had to be cut and which ones didn't. also, in terms of their importance and in terms of being current. so we

saved a tremendous amount of money. and i think, you know, it's i don't know if it's going to reach a trillion, but it's going to reach a lot. and it was an honor to have michael there yesterday. you got to see a little bit of it. we had a conference and a lot of investment coming into our country, much more than i've ever seen. apple is investing $500 billion. ibm was with us. yesterday and they're investing a lot. just companies all over. i could name them. you've read most of them, many of them. but hundreds of billions of dollars is being invested. that wouldn't have happened if i didn't win the election. number one. and i think number two, the tariffs are having a tremendously positive impact. they will have. and they are having we have car companies that are not building in mexico now. they're building in the united states. >> some of. >> them, the plants were already started and they stopped construction. and now they're going to build in the united states. it was very unfair that they'd build in mexico and sell them across the border with no tax, no nothing. they'd take away our jobs. they close up places in michigan and all over

the country, and they'd build them in mexico. and in many cases they were owned by china, built in mexico, owned by china. and that's all stopped now. they're all coming. they're all coming here. honda is building a massive plant and different places, indiana and south carolina, but also in michigan, a lot. in michigan, a lot of activity is happening. they're looking all over the place for places. and that's because there is a good spirit. there's a renewed spirit. and also a very importantly, the tariffs are they don't want to pay 25% or whatever it may be. it may go up higher, maybe go up higher. look, the higher it goes, the more likely it is they're going to build. and ultimately the biggest win is not the tariff. that's a big win. that's a lot of money. but the biggest win is if they move into our country and produce jobs. that's a bigger win than the tariffs themselves. but the tariffs are going to be throwing off a lot of money to this country. and

we've been ripped off for years by other countries many, many decades. and they were doing the same thing. but i think we'll do it better. and i think we have a bigger advantage because we really are the piggy bank. they weren't. >> thank you. >> mr. president. you've also mentioned. >> rebuilding the american. >> top priority. >> and i guess, what's your. >> strategy to. >> lower the overall cost of living, make everyday expenses more affordable? >> we're obviously losing the camera shot. that was. president trump speaking at the business roundtable, asked a question by chuck robbins there. president trump spending a lot of time talking about the work that doge has accomplished, most notably saying that doge has achieved $500 billion in efficiencies, which is halfway to that $1 trillion goal that they had had, and also the impact of tariffs has been investment more than he's ever seen, he said. into this country from the likes of

honda, a lot of car manufacturers coming in building plants in various places, apple building plants here, etc. what we do know, though, is that the impact of all of this has been volatility in the markets. so let's continue our conversation with with michael schumacher of wells fargo. thanks for sticking around. you have glimpses like of this. nothing seems to get resolved. you know the expectation for volatility tomorrow is just as high as when he before he started speaking. so what are you finding in terms of how your clients are positioning if they don't want to do anything right now, presumably a lot of them have to be in the markets that that is their mandate. so what do they do? >> yeah. >> and the investor side, melissa, what we're telling people to do and what i think a lot of people have done is to buy bonds that are a. >> little bit. >> longer than the fed. >> can really control. >> so maybe the 3 to. >> 5 year part. >> of the yield curve. and that's. >> short enough. >> also that. >> it's probably. >> not too. >> susceptible to supply. >> concerns if there. >> is some sort. >> of grand. >> bargain in washington.

>> the president didn't. >> talk about that. that could happen. it's certainly. a concern of. >> a lot of people. so staying. >> sort of. >> relatively short. but at least taking some risk because you're. >> right. >> people can't just sit there and say. >> well. >> i can't put money. >> to work otherwise. >> how do you justify your existence? >> you've got to go out there. >> and do something useful. so that's one thing we've seen people do, i think. >> in foreign. >> exchange markets are plenty of opportunities. so for instance, we. >> still. >> think the. canadian dollar weakens a fair bit versus the us bank of canada meets tomorrow. >> probably cuts 25. we talked about. >> the fed probably doesn't do much. so that by itself should benefit the us. >> dollar. >> us dollar versus the chinese rmb. we think there's a lot of upside there. >> and we think. >> the. rmb weakening could actually be a nice safety valve for the chinese economy. that's not a one day or a one week trade. >> it's probably. >> a 3 to 6 month type of thing. but we think there's pretty good momentum there and we think that will happen as well. so i think. >> really when there's. >> a lot of volatility. >> you've got. >> to lengthen your horizon and say, i can't really guesstimate the next day or two. so let me

take a somewhat longer. view and just. protect myself in terms of downside. >> michael, thank you so much. good to see you. michael schumacher, wells fargo coming up. much more on the market action today. why billionaire investor ron baron is standing firm on tesla. why some airline stocks are heading in different directions, and how the turmoil is fueling a surge in 401 k trading. but first, apple's drop continues. and one trader says it could be the most interesting chart in big tech, where he sees the name heading next. and weight loss player viking therapeutics also sinking. a new manufacturing deal had investors fleeing that stock. do not go fleeing that stock. do not go anywhere fast. ♪ empower ♪ i got her a little something. a little something, dad? hold up. walt rolled his 401k accounts into an empower ira, and it's grown nicely. i'm for team splurge. (♪♪) thanks, grandpa! get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long?

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...will billy be a-winning? easy, rich. no, jinxing. ...tee shot-mashing ...absolutely thrilling ...game-changing golf experience. powering the connectivity of the pga tour. comcast business nearly 3%. those losses officially erasing all its gains since election day. the stock now down 15% from its record high, though that's a smaller loss since mag seven peers. dan earlier called apple the most interesting chart in big tech. dan why did you do that? >> yeah, from a technical perspective, we've been looking at this 220 level for a long time. and when you think about this stock, it's down 12% in the year. you said it was a laggard today. it certainly was. but it's acted on a relative basis a lot better during this sell off than, let's say, the rest of the fateful eight here. so i think about what's going on here. i think about what verizon said

this morning. they're talking about a more competitive environment. well, there's a couple of things that you can draw from that. a maybe you have a consumer is less likely to upgrade their phones. maybe they don't have reasons to upgrade their phones. apple intelligence was meant to be one of those reasons. and you think about where the stock is trading right now. you know, it's still at a level that's well above where it was when they announced, you know, apple intelligence back in june. and i say to myself, the company just pushed out like their updates to apple intelligence. there will not be an upgrade cycle in a meaningful way until apple intelligence comes out. so that's a 2026 thing. you think about the valuation here. you think about a consumer. you think about where they live in a trade war. they better get some sort of exclusion like they did in the first trump thing. so this stock to me, i just think is trading at a multiple that it does not deserve to relative to its fundamentals. i think the technical setup is bad, and i think for some reason the sentiment is still, you know, a sort of wait and see sort of thing. >> so i will play the role of miss silver lining, since you

are not playing that role tonight, tonight. >> but he typically is typically. >> everybody knows dan is sunshine. dan of. >> course forgot. >> about that one. so the upside to apple may not be there anymore in terms of the bull case for the supercycle, for the upgrades to the ai. et cetera. et cetera. but the downside risk, mike, might not be as bad either, because it is a utility. people, you know, in hard times, they're not going to get rid of their phone. they're not going to probably reduce their services to a great extent. they're still going. there's an installed base. >> yeah. i mean, that does create a floor in terms of, you know, what their top line and bottom line are going to look like. but i think dan's point is a slightly different one, which is how much are you willing to pay for that? i mean, the thing is trading 30 times forward right now, it's probably going to grow the top line at, you know, four, 4.5%. best case, over the course of the next 12 months, you know that you're probably going to get. >> better than. >> that out of the s&p. and the s&p is trading seven eight turns cheaper than that is. so to me i don't really see that as a as a huge bargain. you are right though. i mean i remember very

distinctly warren buffett commenting that if you looked at the average family that had two cars and iphones, that they would give up their second car before they would give up their iphones. so i think it is a very sticky product. but, you know, also this tariff thing, as you also rightly point out, if they have to onshore any manufacturing, i mean, they make about a 99% margin on the on the stuff that they make in china. and you bring it here, you're not going to see those kinds of margins. >> so what does apple's p 30 ish. >> little north of 30. >> what is walmart's. >> right around the same silly. >> so i'm just raising it because what are you paying for in this. you're paying for you're paying a premium for certain things. >> are they throwing that video out. that's trading at 22 times four. >> it's not defensive really. >> if i if generative ai is going to be in every industry, but. >> if the ai bull case goes away. >> well, the ai bull case is embedded in this stock right now and it shouldn't be. >> okay. so you say it's still embedded. okay. >> you know, it's i don't want to play your reindeer game, but i'll. >> play. >> this this game. you know,

we've said this a hundred times. apple wins the passive investing. i think we all agree. you know what they lose to active investing. because when it's active it's on the way down. and if things if there's ever forced selling for whatever reason what works for apple on the upside works against them on the downside. and that 194 ish level from june 10th, which is where we took off from on that and whatever the what do they call that. >> thing, the wwdc guy? >> yes, june. >> i'll wait on line for that again this year. they report in april. i mean, we could see a round trip very easily in this type of environment. >> i support the argument against valuation. what i will say is i can understand from a momentum standpoint why apple has outperformed its peers, because it didn't get the bloat or fluff that a lot of the other ai related peers got. and so as you're fleeing that trade, whether it's logical or not, but as you're rotating out of that trade, you probably don't think of apple first and foremost as you're kind of looking to get out of hyper valued an nvidia side or names that have had the type of parabolic move that

other ai ai adjacent names have had. so i think that might be, i guess, an additional silver lining. let's call it a copper lining in terms of what one might be able to do around apple. >> yeah. and i'll just say this if you think that the numbers are going to inflect this year, if you think that 9% expected earnings growth and 5% expected sales growth and a reemergence of iphone growth is going to happen, then you're fine right here. but i don't think that's going to happen. i don't know what the catalyst is for that to happen. and the other thing is, if applications built on generative ai are not part of this model, then your gross margin is not going to continue to go up. it kind of flattens or goes down a little bit in my opinion, especially if you don't have an upgrade cycle. >> you learn a lot here on cnbc's fast money. every once in a while we throw some poetry out. so you know what bonawyn just said? they flee from me that sometime did me seek melissa. that's sir thomas wyatt, and that's apropos to apple right now. of course he didn't, but i just picked up on. all right. >> coming up shares of viking dropping hard. why investors are

worried a takeover may be off the table. that is next. plus billionaire investor ron baron reaffirming his faith in tesla even with shares cut in half since their all time high. why he is staying plugged in ahead. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square back right after this. >> meat avocados. >> best. >> selling green mattress made with certified organic. >> cotton. >> wool and latex, plus ergonomic coils to support your. >> body's natural. >> curves for. >> cool and restorative sleep. >> featuring a one. >> year in-home sleep. >> trial, complete. >> your bed. >> with organic pillows and bedding. >> shop today at avocado mattress.com. >> proud supporter. >> of 1% for the planet. >> that's the very first. >> thing i do in the morning. >> so they do one. >> i checked one thing off that can at least help with my mental health. with my physical.

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investments right now. stay ahead of the market squawk box tomorrow, 6 a.m. eastern on cnbc. >> welcome back to fast money. stocks in the red again today though closing off their lows of the session. ontario premier doug ford temporarily suspending the 25% surcharge on electricity exported to the u.s, helping fuel a midday comeback. the dow is still down nearly 500 points, the s&p falling 3/10 of a percent. the nasdaq paring its losses down 2/10 of a percent. shares of some retailers getting hit hard. kohl's down more than 24%. it is. that was its worst day on record. shares touching levels last seen in 1997. dick's down nearly 6% after its earnings. both companies forecasting weaker results in the year ahead as recession fears pick up. crypto meantime seeing a bounce. bitcoin now back above $82,000. ether and solana also seeing gains well viking therapeutics dropping 5% after inking a $150 million manufacturing deal with cordenpharma. the partnership signaling that the biotech could

be looking to enter the red hot glp one drug market without a strategic partner. also of note, novo nordisk continuing its slide hitting a 52 week low today. shares of the ozempic maker, now trading at july 2023, levels. guy, what do you make of. >> this viking? listen, i got a mea culpa last year. this was a $50 stock. we thought, you know what? you have to be long viking here. they're going to get taken over. and for a while that looked brilliant. i think the stock almost doubled. now look where it's trading. it's pretty remarkable. but i think people are looking at this news and say they wouldn't make that kind of investment. i guess if there were going to be acquired. i don't know if that's the truth or not, but what i'll tell you is i'm hard pressed to believe they can go it alone. and in this environment, i think somebody is going to take a flier on a name like this, one of the big cap pharma names. so as wrong as i've been now for the last 35, $40, i mean, this is worth a shot. i think. >> both william blair and jefferies, by the way, say that this does not take a deal off the table, just fyi. coming up, not selling a single share. billionaire investor ron baron is staying plugged into tesla.

even with the stock more than 50% off its record high. why? he's in it for the long haul when fast money returns. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? we've been navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow. investors today and tomorrow. that's the comcast business doesn't just power businesses. we help turn them into... ...logistics-mastering... ...supply-chain-transforming... ...seamlessly-restocking... ...frictionless-paying... ...poke-bowl-ordering... ...cyber-securing... ...mobile-access granting... ...data managing... ...welcome-to-the-worlding...

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day in four. the stock is still down over 50% from its december highs, though, on concerns that ceo elon musk is distracted by his doge responsibilities and neglecting his portfolio of companies. but the recent weakness isn't deterring longtime tesla bull ron baron. here's what the billionaire investor said on squawk box today. >> in tesla. >> i think we're going to make from where it was 1,000,000,000,001. i was thinking we would make four times over the next ten years. i think we're going to make more than that now from these prices. i'm the last in. i'll be the last out, so i won't sell a single share personally until i sell all the shares for clients. >> also today, elon musk telling reporters outside the white house that he plans to remain ceo of tesla and that the company will double u.s. vehicle output in the next two years. bannon has said that he is interested in tesla. would you. >> be interested? i think so. i mean, i thought 240 was could happen. it did. it actually blew through. but look at how much volume it traded today. probably two times normal volume. traded

lower traded closed on the highs. i mean, this is the type of thing you want to see. now i'm not suggesting anything is fixed. the margins we saw last quarter were a train wreck. but that happened at $390 or so. and we saw the subsequent rally. so at these levels a lot of this is sort of priced in. and you could see a 35 to $40 bounce in this name very easily. we've seen it before. >> where did you get in or. >> no no this is this is one that's on the list. so cuz i purchased and then some google i hear again i want to make be very clear i'm not making the argument based on valuation, but i don't think if you care to get long tesla, i don't think you're ever going to find a 25 or 30 times forward p e as your as your entry level. so what i'm saying is, being that there is such, it is such a momentum name and trade so much on technicals and just aura feeling. i mean, i think there's an argument to be made that musk has been distracted for years now. i just think that, you know, in terms of the retail presence and sfd, if that's really what you buy

into, i think you start to average cost in here, here, around here. >> so, mike, what are the options pits saying about tesla. >> yeah, i mean, unsurprisingly, given the price action we've seen, it's been pretty bearish. this was a name that typically saw calls outpacing puts pretty comfortably for ages. and that situation has reversed. we've also seen that the price of 5% out of the money puts relative to 5% out of the money calls is pretty much as bearish as it as it has been, you know, in the last five years. so i would actually suggest that that probably indicates that we're closer to the bottom. you know, one of the things i think that people could take a look at, if you actually think there's some further downside, i wouldn't buy premium. i wouldn't spend premium to do that. but you could use something like a one buy two put spread. i was i was looking out to april and looking at the 225 puts and then selling two of the 195 against it. that trade could be put on for pretty much even money. and if it did pull back a little bit further,

you could you could profit from that. in the few instances where we've seen pullbacks of 50% or more in tesla, the average move down has been about 57%. now since the stock's already down 50, that means another 14% from here. and you know, actually to, you know, to bronwyn's point with respect to where you get to it at 30 times, 30 times is probably about 130 bucks a share. so that's going to be a lot lower than we are right here. but i think something like a one by two, if you want to lean into it on the short side, but you are going to get long at 165 if you do that. >> we're waiting on the house vote on the funding bill to avert a government shutdown. we're expecting that at any moment. we'll bring it to you when fast money returns. >> in the world of. >> investing, the beast lurks. >> between the numbers. some watch from the safety of the sidelines, but others saddle up and ride that one ton rowdy

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>> the pga tour's best look. to conquer 17. >> all eyes on this. >> as scotty sets his sights on a third straight championship. >> all eyes on. >> the players. on nbc and streaming on peacock. >> we've got breaking news on the house vote for funding bill to avert a government shutdown. emily wilkins got the details. emily. >> hey, melissa. well, the house has now passed. >> a bill that will keep the government funded until at least september 30th. doing that with nearly. all republicans voting for it, plus one democrat. >> as well. the only republican to vote no is. >> thomas massie. and look, melissa, this was a very difficult. >> vote for a number of republicans. >> they don't like voting for continuing funding. they wanted to find.

>> ways to reduce it. >> but many of. >> them got personal assurances. >> from trump and trump's team that if they. >> made this vote now, they. >> would be able to vote for reduced funding and larger cuts further down the road. >> now, of. >> course, this is going. >> to the senate and the game changes there in the house. we were all watching republicans in the senate. a handful of democrats are. >> going. >> to have to join. republicans if they want to pass a bill. the question, of course, is if democrats. decide to use this moment in a potential shutdown for. >> leverage for things that they. >> might want, or reassurances about doge and trump and the cuts in the government, or whether they will go along because they don't want to be seen as shutting the government down. we know at least one democratic senator, john. >> fetterman, does plan. >> to vote for the for it. and i'm also hearing right now that jared. golden was the one in the house, the one. >> democrat who actually voted. >> for this continuing funding. and he is from a very moderate district. he has a lot. >> of republican. >> constituents there. a lot of independent. >> constituents didn't feel like he could be able to vote. against against keeping the

government funded. >> so very some very interesting dynamics here in both chambers. but i think, of course, the big question is when are we going to actually see the cuts. >> that republicans and trump have promised? >> emily. thank you, emily wilkins. meantime, we've got breaking news that could impact merger activity in the trump administration. eamon javers has got those details. eamon. >> hey, melissa. >> that's right. new comments coming to light now from andrew ferguson. he's the new trump ftc chair. a lot of questions around the ftc under andrew ferguson, and how it would be different from lina khan and the biden administration. these comments made earlier today behind closed doors at the yale ceo event. the comments were off the record. i was. >> in the room. >> i have. since been released from my obligation to keep these particular comments off the record. and i can tell you that what ferguson told the ceos in the room was that the ftc under trump will approve mergers and will move quickly to approve mergers and get the ftc out of the way if those mergers are lawful. but he said if the mergers are not appropriate, the

ftc will come after them. he was careful to signal to the ceos in the room that the trump ftc is not the bush ftc of, you know, a decade or so ago. and this is not the ftc of the 90s where nearly everything went. and he told a long story to the ceos in the room, melissa, that indicates his perspective. >> on how. >> the ftc is going to act against large monopoly power, in his view, which has become too socially active. he said that when he was wor imitch mcconnell's office on capitol hill, he was getting a lot of calls from companies that were concerned about social issues around policing black lives matter type era issues, he said that that made him realize that large economic power is large political power, and it's being used to support a social agenda that he and much of the country don't agree with. he said that the ftc will take action when it sees monopoly concentrations of power that empower that kind of social activism on behalf of the company. so this is not an anything goes ftc by any stretch

of the imagination. they're very concerned about large concentrations of corporate power, using that for social causes that they don't agree with. melissa back over to you. >> eamon. thank you eamon javers. it's interesting to try and dissect what that could mean in terms of the social stances that companies are proposing to merge, might take if they got bigger, and it seems almost like a threat. like don't go down that road or we won't approve your merger. >> well, i think if i'm listening, not as wild west as was during the bush administration, but not as draconian. and the biden administration, probably, i would think, closer to bush and biden. with that said, look how poorly like apollo. dan talked about it the other day. look how poorly that stock has traded since election day, almost. and throw blackstone in the mix. so maybe you'll get some relief in some of those names. but i still think a lot of good news is still priced in despite the sell off. >> you know, we were talking about banks earlier in terms of, you know, feeling the pressure there. mike. you know, you have this thing being taken. you know, part of the trump promise was a wave of m&a. and here we

have the ftc head saying no it's not it's not going to be anything goes here. and at the same time we have recession fears. so the two things that were supposed to help the bank trade are slowly dissipating. >> yeah, i mean, the bank trade and frankly, the alphabet trade too. right. so, you know, i was kind of enthusiastic about alphabet coming into the year, and i thought we might see an ftc that was a little bit more friendly. and it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case. i think it's obviously a very tricky situation. if you end up having government agencies who are deciding whether or not there should be mergers or any other kinds of corporate actions based on the political views of the people who run them, that that seems like a rather a dangerous path to go down. i don't i don't think anybody on either side of the aisle wants to see that. but i do think that there is some need to keep an eye on the size of big tech. of course. i mean, we have an extraordinary amount of power concentrated in a handful of companies. and i think, you know, the government,

whoever's running it, is right to scrutinize it. >> right. meantime, the recent market volatility prompting a surge in 401 k trading activity. for a look at what investors are thinking. cnbc's sharon epperson sat down with the ceo of empower, the nation's second largest retirement services company. sharon. >> well. >> melissa, the employee benefit research. >> institute just. wrapped up its retirement symposium. here in d.c. >> and that's where we sat down with. >> ed murphy, the. ceo of. >> empower, empower ministers. about 88,000. >> retirement plans. >> to some. >> 19 million. >> individual investors. and murphy told. >> us that. >> right now. no longer. >> are. >> many investors. >> doing a. >> buy. >> and hold strategy. >> some who have individual mutual. >> funds or etfs. >> some of those. >> individuals are moving to more of a stable. >> value type investment. >> but we're not. >> seeing widespread. capitulation despite the downturn. >> about 60%. >> of. 401 k participants are invested in target date funds.

murphy says most. >> of those investors. >> are staying the course. >> but other data. >> shows that trading activity. >> in 401. k plans has doubled in the. last three weeks, most of. >> it. >> in the. >> last week. >> more than. half of. outflows in 401. >> k plans. >> in the first week of march came from large cap u.s. equity funds. >> meanwhile. >> in terms of inflows, about. 40% of those inflows went into stable value funds. now, meanwhile, the 401 k industry is also bracing for what could happen with the impact of layoff on investors retirement savings strategies. >> when you have a downturn. >> like this and. >> you have concerns about the viability. of one's role and whether. >> they're going to. >> keep their. job because it is. >> a relatively weak. >> job market right. >> now. >> you'll see. >> people adjust their deferral rates and their savings rates. >> murphy says he hasn't seen those changes yet, but he is going to be watching very closely to see the contribution rates that employees have, as

well as employers in the next couple of months. melissa. >> are there any clear demographic trends? sharon, in terms of who is doing the most trading and who is pulling money out of the 401 k's? >> well, the most challenging, of course, is for people that are very near retirement or maybe even in retirement. and that says murphy, says that's what they're looking at very closely, because being in a challenging market, a down market and you're in retirement, that makes it very difficult for those investors. >> yeah. sharon thank you. >> yeah. sharon thank you. sharon epperson. up next, final (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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