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so. >> much for. >> being. >> here. with us. >> i'm frank hollins. >> get you ready. >> for the day ahead. >> we begin with the markets. >> after really a wild. >> day of volatility caused by the president's call to. >> double tariffs. >> on canadian steel and. >> aluminum to 50%. >> in. >> response to a threat of a 25%. surcharge on electricity imports from ontario. we're showing. >> you the dallas. >> moves yesterday. >> again very volatile day, largely caused. >> by. >> some. of that. back and. forth over trade. >> it of course ended with both sides agreeing to talks. all three. indices finishing the day lower. taking a look at futures right now you can. >> see we're in. >> the green across the board. >> looks like the dow would. >> open up almost 200 points higher. and we want to take a look at the s&p 500 premarket gainers. as we see the s&p 500 moving. >> higher in the. >> premarket right. >> there at the top of the list. chipmaker intel those shares moving up more than 8%. palantir shares up more than 3.5%. on the other side of the coin, the s&p laggards taking a look at some of the worst performers. in the premarket right now. caesars those shares pulling back just about two and three quarters of 1%. resmed mccormick and norfolk southern. >> the rail.

>> rounding out the worst performers in the premarket. also taking a look at treasuries this. >> morning yields there. >> they continue to. move lower. right now the benchmark. >> actually moving. >> a bit higher right now that benchmark coming in at 4.27 right now. and also this morning we want to talk about the tariffs. >> those 25% across. >> the board. tariffs on steel and aluminum officially going into effect. the eu announcing retaliatory tariffs. on about $28 billion worth of u.s. goods starting in april. we've seen upside moves in both commodities since trump's tariffs were announced. take a look. you see steel moving up about 5.5%. aluminum up about 1.5%. quick check of the moves on both commodities in the pre market. taking a look. right now we're seeing no movement when it comes to steel. aluminum prices moving up more than a half a percent. president trump making his case for tariffs while speaking at the business roundtable yesterday. >> the tariffs are going to be throwing off a lot of money to this country. and we've been ripped off for years by other countries many, many decades. and they were doing the same thing. but i think we'll do it

better. and i think we have a bigger advantage because we really are the piggy bank. they weren't. >> and coming up, we're going to speak to the ceo of century aluminum about the tariffs and the outlook for u.s. production. staying on the president's trade war. china taking some new steps when it comes to tariffs. focusing on one of america's biggest companies. our eunice yoon joins us now from beijing with that story. eunice. >> thanks, frank. >> well, this. >> time the target. >> is walmart. >> state media. >> reporting that. >> local walmart. executives have been. summoned by the ministry of. >> commerce. >> as well as other. >> regulators. >> and warned. >> against complaints that the company has. >> been trying. >> to push. >> the share of the burden. >> of the president. >> of president. >> trump's tariffs. >> onto chinese suppliers. >> the state. media has. been saying. >> that the ministry has said. >> that. >> the demand. >> to significantly. >> reduce their words is unilateral, that it may violate. commercial contracts. >> and that the next step. >> is, quote, beyond talks. which means that they are threatening to take.

>> concrete action. >> now, the backdrop. >> of all. >> this is that it. >> comes at. >> a time. >> when retailers. >> like walmart. >> distributors in the u.s, u.s. suppliers, as well as chinese suppliers are really trying to figure. out who is going to pay for the. now additional 20% tariffs. i spoke into some suppliers. >> who said that. >> their their. >> margins are razor thin, and that. >> they just. >> cannot take. >> on more. >> of that cost. >> they have said, though. >> that frank, that they. >> have also. heard from. >> walmart and that they have. >> been pressured to. >> pay more. >> yeah, very interesting development here. take a. >> look at walmart. >> shares pulling back about three quarters of 1%. also the commentary that the next step is. >> beyond talks. >> very interesting development. our eunice yoon live in beijing. all right. a quick check of how overseas. markets are reacting to these latest developments. bit of a mixed session in asia. the hang seng down about 1.5%. the kospi. up about 1.5%. and a quick look at the early trade over in europe. taking a look at the european equities right now.

we're seeing right now the german dax biggest economy in europe moving about 1.25% higher. similar story for the italian mob up over 1%. >> the ccac. >> up nearly a percent. the ftse 100 just below a half a percent upside move. all right. time now to get some more on the markets and these latest tariff developments with nancy priel, co-ceo and senior portfolio manager at essex investment management, and nancy tengler, cio and ceo at laffer tengler investments. ladies good morning. it is great to have you both here. nancy, if you don't mind, i'm going to begin with you. i want to get your reaction to what we're seeing in the futures. futures move higher after a very volatile day that ended lower with tariffs on steel and aluminum beginning today, european retaliation beginning today. also seeing china push back on one of our biggest u.s. companies. >> well. >> we've had a relentless sell off in the market as we've coped with the fear. >> of. >> the tariffs, the. >> tariffs on the. >> tariffs off coming through. >> earnings season. worries about stagflation, recession, etc. >> and so the market is. >> ripe and due for some kind of. >> relief here.

>> as the selling really got pretty intense on. >> what we saw on. >> friday. >> and certainly throughout the volatility yesterday. >> so we're. >> we've been thinking that we were going to have some kind of a bounce. >> here. >> have some relief, have. some thinking about the fact that there really. is still. >> a. >> lot of growth. opportunities in the us, even in this heightened trade. >> war risk. >> and heightened environment. what we don't know yet is if this is really the return. to a bull market, or is this simply a bounce off the bottom, catching our breath? and then we go and we go on and end up making. >> new lows. >> so the jury's still out on that. and the determinant will be inflation and growth. >> you know. what i. >> think nancy i'm coming over to nancy tengler. now. that is a good question. did we hit the bottom. >> is this. >> a bounce off the bottom? nancy tengler and your mind, do you think that now investors feel like pretty much everything is priced in? the 50% threat of a tariff on canadian aluminum steel really a shock to the

market. but then things kind of calmed down. they did end lower. but do you feel like all the tariff threats and the concerns do they seem to be priced in? is that what we're seeing this morning? >> yeah, that's a dangerous question, frank, for me. >> to. >> answer, because i, of course don't know. but i do think we're getting close to a bottom, if not already there. and the reason for that is at some point, investors just become immune to all of the, the chaos, really. and they start focusing on the fundamentals. and i agree. >> with nancy. i think. >> there's a. >> lot of. >> good news out there. we may be in a decelerating growth environment. i don't think we're going. >> into a recession, nor do i think. >> we'll see stagflation. but in. >> a. >> decelerating growth environment, you do want to own the reliable growers. >> and so we added to. >> some of those names. on monday. it was hard to do. >> we sort of. >> held our noses and jumped in. but i think we'll be happy with. >> those purchases. >> in a year or two. >> all right. so you don't think we're headed towards a recession? nancy, i want to come over to you now. you believe that actually we're going to see a gdp contraction maybe even deeper than the gdp now

estimate. that's out of about 2.4%. also, we have goldman trimming its year end s&p target, citing increased uncertainty over the president's policies. i want to ask you what does that mean when it comes to small caps and other parts of the market outside of mega-cap tech? i know that's your wheelhouse. the small caps and the mid caps. >> right. >> well, this will. >> be a. >> challenging environment for. >> the small cap indices. and for that broad small. >> cap market. >> just because of the number of loss making companies in. >> the index. >> and those that don't have the balance sheets to withstand what will either be a slower growth environment. >> you know. >> half a percent to 1% kind of gdp growth, or possibly a few quarters with a modestly negative gdp print. we're not expecting a deep recession. we do think there's a chance of 1 or 2 quarters that could tip negative. >> within that context. >> however, of a somewhat more challenging overall small cap environment. we think there are

tremendous number of opportunities for picking stocks in small cap land, and small cap is one of those areas. where index investing really doesn't work. it really pays to be a stock picker. to find companies with good balance sheets that can generate cash, that can grow quickly on both revenue and earnings, and that have the tailwinds of some of the exciting areas of. infrastructure spend. internet of things. >> ai. >> etc. behind them. >> all right. >> nancy tengler coming over to you. you are, in fact, a stock picker. i want to talk to you about the mag seven. so our data team, they crunched the numbers, numbers for us just to show how big of a drag the mag seven has been on the s&p in march. i'm looking at the charts here. mag seven down more than 9% in march. you see right here six of the mag seven. the biggest drag. the biggest negative impact on the s&p this month. you've made some moves in the mag seven. i want to ask you, do you think we've seen the bottom when it comes to these mega-cap tech stocks that have really powered the market? >> i do, frank, i mean, you

know. >> we've heard the. >> end of. >> tech trade, the tech trade for the last three years. >> every every. time the stocks pull back, we hear, okay. >> it's over. >> but it really strains. >> in the mind to say, okay, these companies aren't going to grow anymore. because in fact, what we are seeing is that they continue to deliver double digit growth. i mean, we added to. >> tesla and. >> nvidia on monday, both both names for different. >> reasons. >> but nvidia. >> is growing. this year, this. >> fiscal year at 50% and is trading at 26 times. so on a price earnings to growth. >> basis, that. >> ratio basis that that's the kind of company. >> that we want. >> to own in a decelerating growth environment. i don't want. >> to be. >> overweight. consumer staples at 22 to 25 times next year's earnings. and they're growing in the in the mid to low single digits. so i think this is one of those opportunities. remember microsoft was trading at $220 a share in in the october of 2022. and, you know, that was a time

to step in. it's never easy to do, but these companies have a lot of levers to pull. they have robust balance. sheets and free. >> cash flow. >> even after all the capex spend is going to continue to be strong. and don't forget that what we're seeing in the economy is productivity is improving and unit labor. we got a better than expected productivity print for the last quarter, and. >> unit. labor costs. >> of about 2.2. so those are. compelling numbers. we think that can continue for a long time. >> all right nancy. >> nancy tengler great to see you both. thank you very much. you both have a great day. >> thank you very much. >> all right. we got a lot more to come. >> here. >> on worldwide exchange, including the one word that investors have to hear today and a top idea to find growth during the market turbulence. but first hedge funds and their trump trades how they could be driving some of the market's recent volatility. plus the ceo of elastic is standing by the strong demand his company is seeing around ai and his views on deep seat disruption of that space. and then later the ceo of century aluminum. he's here as president trump's tariffs on that metal they take effect. a

very busy hour still ahead. very busy hour still ahead. world wide exchange return ♪ empower ♪ so handsome. oh, i can't buy this. woah, woah. your empower investment account has grown. you earned it, so... (♪♪) get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. to work, school, even grandma's house. >> don't all apps. >> do that? >> not really. >> trust the number one app. real estate professionals trust high point university, the premier life skills university, is ranked the number one best run college in america by the princeton review. employers value hpa's real world preparation. students love unprecedented access to global leaders on high points, inspiring campus, and parents appreciate hpa's god, family,

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to look like. it looks like your investment made sense. >> all right. welcome back to. >> worldwide exchange shares of elastic. they've been pulling back after initially popping on the back of its latest earnings. getting a bit caught up in that broader tech sell off the enterprise search technology company beating the street with those results on strong demand for products related to ai for much more. let's bring in the ceo of elastic ash kulkarni. ash. good morning. welcome back to the show. >> good morning. thank you for having me.

>> all right. so kind of timely to have you on yesterday. your stock your stock. it saw big pop shares up about 6.5%. we were just talking to a guest just a short time ago. have we seen the bottom when it comes to the tech trade? what do you attribute that big pop to? you didn't have any news. you didn't come out with anything. what do you think that was. >> the volatility. >> that we've. >> been seeing in the stock. not just in. >> our stock but just about. >> everybody in our sector. >> a lot of it seems to be. >> related to the macro. >> there seems to. >> be concerns around uncertainty with. >> what's going. >> on in terms of tariffs. >> and just given that environment, there seems to be a lot of. trading on no. news like you said. but, you know, what we're really. >> focused on is the growth in. >> the business. we have a. >> strong balance. >> sheet this year. >> we are. >> currently in our q4. >> we've projected to. >> have operating margins of. >> 14.7%. >> and, you know. >> last quarter, fiscal. >> q3, we. >> grew our. >> top. line revenue. >> by 17%. >> our cloud. >> business grew. >> by 26%. >> and a lot of it was because of the momentum that we. >> are seeing with. >> generative ai. >> and the.

>> kinds. >> of really interesting applications. that people. >> are building. >> to really drive efficiency, create. better experiences for their customers. >> and that's. >> what excites. >> us, and that's what we're focused on. >> all right. so ash, you're talking about momentum when it comes to gen i, i want to talk to you about a moment that seemed to at least shift the momentum. the release of deep sea could happen back on january the 27th. once again, i'm just looking at the charts. your stock is down about 7% since then. we've had some time to kind of digest what the release of dcf has really mean in your mind, and what you're hearing from your customers. what's the biggest change when people are looking at ai infrastructure, their needs and things like that? >> you know. >> deep sea represents two. really interesting moments coming together. so first is just development. >> in the ai space. >> and deep. >> sea. >> wasn't necessarily. >> the first, but they were able to. >> deliver this reasoning capability at a. >> price. >> at a cost. based on the way they built the model and based on the. training methods. >> that they used at a much lower. >> price point than anybody. >> had seen before, which is a big unlock, because prices as

they keep. >> coming down, that's. >> going. >> to. >> mean that more people. >> more use cases. >> are going to leverage. >> ai. and that's just going to create. >> you. >> know. just a halo effect for everybody. there's going to be just. >> more applications being. >> built. >> and you're going to. >> see the deflationary effect that comes from more efficiency. >> being built into all of these process automations. >> that happen. >> the second big. >> force is open source. you know, deep sea is. >> another great proof point of the wonderful value. >> that open source can add. >> to just about any technology. trend where elastic. >> was born. >> in open source, we're. >> an open source company. >> elasticsearch is one. >> of the most downloaded open source pieces. >> of software out there. and then we. >> monetize the value added features. >> that we add, that. >> we build and. >> add on top. and we have over and over again seen. >> open source. >> really add tremendous value. >> change the equation. >> in a democratize technologies. and deep sea is sort of. >> a great. >> example of what's happening right now in this space. >> i want to ask you about a

little bit of macro. we seem to be on the verge of an economic slowdown here in the us. also, we've seen the dollar weaken quite a bit in your guidance. you made it a point to focus on the currency exchange, that basically your guidance is based on the. >> idea. >> that $1 is about $1 and four of euro. it's not $0.04, i guess, but it's ■k71.04. we've seen the dollar actually move quite a bit to the downside. how does that impact your business and also demand overseas. >> yeah. >> so at. >> the at the beginning of the quarter when we guide, we effectively take a snapshot of what the currency rates look like at. >> that point. >> in time. >> and if the dollar strengthens then, you know, given that we do some business in international markets, including in europe as well as in asia, you know, that becomes. >> a headwind for the. >> market, for the for the business. and so we kind of try and size that appropriately and give that guidance to the street. obviously if the dollar weakens then that goes in the other direction. we don't see that. >> same headwind. >> so that's going to be something that we'll benefit from in the quarter. but we

fundamentally when we think about the business structurally, we think about, you know, constant currency like in constant currency. how are we doing? we want to make sure that we are constantly growing the business. the opportunity ahead of us is significant, and we believe that we can continue driving operating leverage in the business. so we grow both the bottom line and the top line, and currency swings will happen as they happen. they aren't necessarily in our control, but we sort of, you know, account for it. and we inform the street about it. >> all right. we got to go. but very quickly. do tariffs impact your business. just a yes or no. >> i don't. >> believe so. i think in the in the long run it's all going to work out in the near term. there's going to be uncertainty and we'll just manage through that. and that's why we are being very careful and very thoughtful about, you know, how we how we see the business performing in the next two months. we are in our fiscal fourth quarter, and after that we'll guide for the next year. >> all right. ashraf ghani, ceo of elastic. it is always great to see you. thanks for coming on. >> thank you. >> all right. still on worldwide

exchange. the drama out of dc isn't it's just not focused on tariffs. there's more going on. the latest on the congress race to get a funding deal done with just over 48 hours to do so. we just over 48 hours to do so. we are back in (♪♪) ♪ (slow down) ♪ (♪♪) cut!!!! i get it! slow motion. slow down geographic atrophy. but we don't need gimmicks. stick to the facts. ga, the advanced form of dry amd, can irreversibly damage your vision. but syfovre is an fda-approved eye injection that gives you the power to slow ga. syfovre was proven to slow ga lesion growth over 2 years with increasing effect over time. it's the only treatment to slow ga in as few as 6 doses per year. don't take syfovre if you have an infection, or active swelling in or around your eye that may include pain and redness or are allergic to it. syfovre can cause severe allergic reactions.

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better. >> high point university, the premier life skills university, is ranked the number one best run college in america by the princeton review. employers value hpa's real world preparation. students love unprecedented access to global leaders on high points, inspiring campus, and parents appreciate hpa's god, family, and country values. choose to be extraordinary at high point university. if you're shopping for a home, you could browse hundreds of listings to find homes with big yards or compare lot sizes all at once. search in full color to find space to grow. home search will never be the same again. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange futures in the green across the board. let's get a quick check of some of this morning's top corporate stories. silvana henao is here with those. silvana. good morning. >> hey, frank. >> good morning to you. well. >> the race. >> to get a bill to fund the

federal government approved. >> before saturday's. >> midnight deadline. >> moves to the senate. >> now, this after the house. >> approved a. >> republican measure to. >> do so. >> yesterday in the. >> senate. >> republicans will need the support of at. >> least eight democrats to. >> send the bill to president. >> trump for approval, though. >> it's unclear. if they have that support. >> meanwhile, the trump. administration reportedly. >> tamping down. >> expectations when it. >> comes to big mergers. axios reporting. that in a meeting. >> yesterday. >> ftc chair andrew ferguson told. >> a group of. >> big business. >> leaders that included jp. >> morgan. >> chase's jamie. >> dimon and goldman sachs. >> david solomon. >> while he. >> won't let. proposed deals. die on the vine, but he did add that deals wouldn't necessarily. >> get automatic. >> approval. and president trump turning. >> the. >> white house south lawn into. >> a tesla. >> showroom to show support. >> to ceo and. >> his doge chief. >> elon musk. >> in addition to. >> checking out the evs, the president also. slammed recent violence. against tesla dealerships, saying it would be

labeled as. >> domestic terrorism. >> now, the support from. >> the. >> president comes with tesla shares down. >> more. >> than 40%. >> since elon. >> musk came to. >> washington to join. >> the trump administration. frank. >> yeah, it's a big pop in. tesla shares this morning up just about 3%. i got to say i was a bit surprised. the president i think he was getting in a model three. i see him more as like a cybertruck guy. >> right. >> that's i agree, that's exactly. >> like it's hard to get in that model three. >> it is. it's small. >> so we'll see you a bit later in the show. thank you very much. all right. coming up. markets are bracing for a critical data point that could further rattle already very jittery investors. and cnbc is celebrating women's heritage month as we head to break. here's the cfo of cava. >> what i like most about this moment in my professional. >> journey is. >> my ability to create. a successful executive leadership team with nearly 50% women. we are a highly collaborative, engaged team that focuses on the human connection in everything

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powering the connectivity of the pga tour. comcast business learn more at tatari tv. >> the tariffs are going to be throwing off a lot of money to this country, and we've been ripped off for years by other countries many, many decades. and they were doing the same thing. but i think we'll do it better. and i think we have a

bigger advantage because we really are the piggy bank. they weren't. >> so that was president trump making the case for his tariffs to business leaders yesterday, the president remaining defiant on the moves which have really rattled the markets. and this morning europe announcing retaliatory efforts on to the tariffs on steel and on aluminum. welcome back to worldwide exchange. i'm frank collin coming up this half an hour. much more on those tariffs including an interview a cnbc exclusive with the ceo of century aluminum. but first we get you ready for the trading day ahead. we begin with the markets. after a really wild day of volatility caused by the president's call to double tariffs on canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to a threat of a 25% surcharge on electricity imports from ontario. take a look. that was the dow yesterday. big swings minute to minute. couple hundred point moves within minutes. but it all ended with both sides agreeing to negotiations and more talks still. all three indices finishing lower. but take a look at futures this morning. bit of a rebound. all three indices in the green across the board in the premarket. take a look. the dow looks like it would open about

almost 200 points higher up about a half a percent. similar story for the s&p and the nasdaq. both of them up over a half a percent in the premarket. quick look at the nasdaq 100 premarket gainers right there at the top of the list. you see intel now. intel shares moving higher, about 7% higher on a report from reuters that tsmc pitched an intel foundry jv to both nvidia, amd and broadcom. i'm seeing some other names there palantir, tesla and american electric rounding out some of the top performers in the nasdaq 100. then the other side of the coin, the laggards taking a look at those this morning in the premarket, we're seeing analog devices pepsico strategy formerly microstrategy and pdt holdings the worst performers in the premarket also looking at treasuries. treasury yields actually ticking up a bit higher actually maybe ticking up a bit higher going into that cpi report coming up later today. we're going to talk about that in just a minute. right now the benchmark at 4.27. yesterday was about 4.24.21. also this morning we're going to be talking much more about those 25% across the board. tariffs on steel and aluminum officially going into

effect. the eu also announcing retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion worth of u.s. goods that began in april. we've seen upside moves when we're talking about aluminum and steel, both of them since trump's tariffs were announced. you can see steel moving up about 5.5%, aluminum up about 1.5%. quick check of those moves in the premarket right now taking a look earlier we just saw aluminum moving still. same story aluminum up just about a half a percent. president trump talking tariffs while speaking at the business roundtable yesterday. coming up we're going to talk to the ceo of century aluminum about those tariffs, as well as the outlook for u.s. production. it's going to be a very interesting conversation you don't want to miss. okay. that's your setup. but we continue to talk about the markets. hedge funds are increasingly coming into focus as questions are growing around their trump trades and the role those trades could be playing in all of this recent market volatility. our leslie picker joins us now with more on that story. leslie good morning. >> hey good morning frank. if we could just. >> kind of. >> take a step back. february 18th. that was the s&p. 500 high

of the year. it was also the first trading day after hedge funds filed their fourth quarter 13. >> etfs, indicating. >> sizable crowding into the so-called. >> trump trade. the s&p. >> has slumped 9% in the three weeks. since then. so what role are hedge funds playing in. >> this selloff? >> well. >> it. >> was that overcrowding and leverage, coupled with some runaway headlines around tariffs and the economy that created this rush to the exits. >> in. >> names that had been previous winners. the drawdown in momentum exposure is emblematic of all of this. barclays said the factor rotation is indicative of more protracted regime shift that is afoot between growth and value, which has only. ever been observed. >> in 2007, 2008. >> 2020 or 2020 and 2021 2022, according to goldman sachs, long short hedge. >> funds lost. >> nearly four percentage points of their year to date performance over the last week and a half. defense and banks

experienced the most net selling, goldman said. and i'm told that several portfolio. >> teams have. >> been fired. >> over their losses. >> in this most recent. >> sell off. >> now we can look to hedge fund positioning to see. whether the unwind is done. i've seen some desks say we're in the eighth or ninth inning. however. >> the panicky. >> risk management response has encouraged funds to add on sizable short positions, which could squeeze and create a near-term rally. >> the question. >> is whether macro risks and negative. >> sentiment cause investors to see any. >> kind of bounce from. here as a selling opportunity. frank. >> you know, leslie, my ears perked up when you mentioned some of the short positions of these hedge funds. do we have any data on just how big these short positions are with when it comes to hedge funds, and what parts of the market they're trying to short? >> we don't have any data on specific names, but what i've seen from some of the prime brokerage desks is about there's been a 45% jump in macro hedges. these are things like. hedging certain indexes in certain

countries, hedging through those, hedging through the s&p 500 or the q-q-q. sometimes you do that in order to just minimize your your downside risk in individual names. so they've seen a big uptick in that. but in terms of individual names, we don't have the specifics because there is a little bit of a lag on when that data becomes available. >> yeah, it's very interesting to see just the twists and turns when it comes to these so-called trump trades. our leslie picker with the very latest. leslie, great to see you as always. thank you very much. another factor that could drive the markets today the cpi report with wall street already very nervous about a potential rise in prices because of tariffs. let's bring in bill lee, chief economist at the milken institute. bill, good morning. good to see you. >> hey, frank. thanks for having me. >> all right. so, bill, what are you expecting from the cpi report? we've been getting, you know, economic reports, things like manufacturing pmi that are already showing that prices are increasing and input costs are going up. we're also hearing from, you know, big companies like delta kohl's and dick's

that they're they're kind of seeing or expecting a consumer slowdown. what are you expecting from this inflation report. and i do want to keep in mind that the numbers, whether you look at core or headline, still well above the 2% target for the fed. >> and that's exactly the problem, frank. the fact is last five out of the. >> six last six cpi. >> reports have been coming in awfully hot. >> and the fed the. desire to see a downward. >> trend in. >> inflation. >> a steady. downward trend. >> has gone out. >> the window. >> and now the real concern is what is the fed going to be doing. and right now, because of the mix and data that are coming in, as you say, potential slowdown in consumer spending, they're going to be sitting on their hands for a while until. >> they see a. >> clear trend reestablish again, whether. inflation trends up or trends down. and right now. just 1 or 2 numbers just won't make the difference. they're going to have to see a clear downward trend to resume easing and a clear upward trend in order to really consider tightening. >> well, you know, let's go to that idea right there. the

downward trends and the upward trends one downward trend. we kind of sort of appear to be seeing or is in jobs. we saw some weakness in this jobs report. we also had some reports that small business payrolls declined for the first time in 14 months. so we're seeing some trends there. i want to ask you, what does this all mean for the fed? if the cpi number comes in hot, as we also are experiencing economic weakness and the potential for stagflation, how does a fed respond to that? >> well. >> right now i think the. >> fact that. >> we are at historic lows in unemployment, the fed is fairly confident that the labor market is pretty secure. but as you say, the emerging data, the survey data are showing that firms are really hesitant to hire right now. they don't want to be putting apart delaying their expansion plans. and because of that, we also lead to a drop in consumer confidence, because the confidence the conference board survey of consumer confidence is very highly correlated to the ease of finding jobs. and right now, finding a job is not as easy as it was before, but nevertheless,

the fed is going to be looking at whether or not we have downward pressure on gdp that causes them to want to continue their, their, their easing again. but right now, the inflation story is really the main driver. and right now the trend on inflation is not going down. >> you know i want to hit a data point that kind of shows the intersection when it comes to the economy and the stock market, it's always important to point out they're not the same thing. you gave us one of these data points. about 10% of the of americans, they own about 70% of stock and pension assets. also, about 10% of americans are doing about half the spending. what does that tell you about the strength of this economy going forward and the position that we're in with tariffs increasing costs potentially, and also increasing uncertainty when it comes to businesses, whether it's making investments or doing hiring. >> the key vulnerability that i've been pointing out on your show for almost the last six months now is that growing split among consumers, the people who are able to. consume are the ones who have assets, because income growth for the us economy

has been slower than consumption. so people are really overspending their income. and the only people who can really do that are people who can cash in their capital gains. and so more and more of the spending is done by fewer and fewer rich people. and that vulnerability, i think, is going to get even worse now as the job market starts to slow down. but one source of uncertainty that we are underplaying is that the emphasis on tariffs. and maybe trump is overplaying his strong hand in using tariffs. is that the possibility of achieving the trump objectives, of reducing the size of government, reducing taxes, reducing regulation and incentivizing more foreign investment? that goal may be in jeopardy because or at least put back. and that's the source of uncertainty that's causing, i think, the overall market to sort of pull back and say, gee, the trump trade may be very much delayed and possibly not met at all. and so the uncertainty really isn't about tariffs, but meeting those goals. >> all right, bill we do have to go. so please really quick i don't think you actually answered my first question. hot cpi. what does that mean for the markets. does that automatically

mean a sell off in your mind. >> i think the markets realized that the fed is going to be on hold. and right now the only thing that the concern is will companies start to cut their profit margins or pass on prices. the cost of higher costs to consumers. >> all right. bill lee being a bit cagey about that one. billy, it's always great to see you though. always appreciate your time and your insight. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, more on president trump's trade wars and what ray dalio and marc benioff think of his tariffs. we're going to share their comments coming from a big economic conference overseas coming up right after this break. stay with us. >> hotel energy has been hunting for the best. >> entrepreneurs across africa to tackle energy poverty. >> farmers are highly dependent on rainfall, but water is scarce with drought. our solution is mobile solar containers for off grid farmers, which uses ai to make irrigation more efficient. being an entrepreneur is not an easy task. you have to have faith that a door will open. >> ubuntu means unity. >> this is how we're going to fight climate change together.

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>> and welcome back to worldwide exchange. taking a look at futures. you can see futures higher across the board. right now the dow looks like it would open up almost 200 points higher. up about a half a percent s&p up just about two thirds of a percent. the nasdaq the best performer up over three quarters of 1%. and a quick look at the biggest gainers on the dow this morning. right there at the top of the list you see chipmaker nvidia. those shares up about 1.5%. merck, amazon and boeing rounding out the best performers on the blue chip index. all right. turning to some overseas news. hedge fund mogul ray dalio and salesforce ceo marc benioff are sounding off on president trump's trade policies. speaking with our sara eisen earlier today at the converge live event in singapore, dalio says the brewing trade war could lead to a bigger confrontation, although he's stressing that doesn't necessarily mean a military standoff. >> tariffs are going. >> to cause. >> fighting between countries. >> there will. >> be. >> fighting and that. >> will have consequences. >> and i think that's the main thing to pay. attention to.

>> do i believe reciprocity is good? reciprocity can be very. >> good. >> but it's the. how also and the how is very important. and you've got. >> to put the what. >> in the how together. and if you can't put the what and the how. in a consistent, clear and meaningful way, then you could end up with high levels of volatility and conflict. >> daly also warning a significant supply demand problem stemming from america's mounting debt could have a profoundly disruptive impact on the global economy. for more on the conversations from converge, head over to cnbc.com. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange. the one word that every investor has to hear today and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. plus the ceo of century aluminum joins us next. his view on president trump's tariffs on metals and what it means for his company's bottom line. we'll be right back with that cnbc right back with that cnbc exclusive coming [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] with the vision to see what's possible and the grit to make it happen, morgan stanley can help create the future

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selling lets you choose from multiple agent proposals because when agents compete. >> you win. >> don't all have to. >> do that. >> not really. trust the number >> not really. trust the number one. app rea gold bond believes touch says everything. it says... i got you. and i'm never letting go. ever. gold bond. get in touch with irresistibly touchable skin. welcome back to worldwide exchange. breaking news in the tech industry and new moves to meet its growing energy needs. our pippa stevens is here with those details. pippa. >> good morning frank. well, the nuclear. energy industry is getting. >> another vote. >> of confidence this morning. >> as some of the world's largest tech companies. including google, meta and amazon throw their weight. >> behind, tripling. >> nuclear output by 2050. now, this is part of. >> an initiative from the world nuclear association, which. >> back in the fall. >> had 14.

>> financial heavyweights. including bank of america, citi, morgan. >> stanley and. >> goldman sachs. >> sign on. alongside more than 30. >> countries, including the united states. >> now, today's announcement is significant because it focuses. >> on the off takers. those are the hyperscalers and the other power. >> intensive industries. >> that are going to be the ones. actually buying. >> that nuclear power. now. >> nuclear has for a long time suffered from being behind schedule and. over budget. and so having those buying those power buyers lined up is what's. >> so important. >> now we did hear from some of big tech. amazon said quote, accelerating nuclear energy development. >> will be critical. >> to strengthening. >> our nation's security. >> meeting future energy. demands and addressing. >> climate change, with. >> google adding. >> quote. >> nuclear power will be will. >> be. >> pivotal in building a. >> reliable, secure. >> and sustainable energy future. now, the timing of this announcement is also really notable. i'm down here in houston at ceraweek. it is the country's largest energy

conference, and the fact. >> that. >> this. >> announcement is coming on. >> the sidelines. >> of a conference that was traditionally dominated by oil and gas, really shows you, frank, how much sentiment has shifted for nuclear energy. and i can tell you there are a lot of tech execs walking the halls down here in houston. >> all right, so some very big news. got a few questions for you. first is the pledge binding and what can we what can we expect next from big tech, especially when it comes to nuclear. >> so this. >> pledge itself is not binding. but we have seen all of these individual tech companies take action themselves by partnering with some of the newer small modular reactor developers, developers for nuclear power, and also this high level support. this public. showcasing really does show that they are putting their their money where their mouth is and backing nuclear. but now the real work begins. because what i've heard a lot down here at ceraweek is that there are still a lot of hangups when it comes to the price tag. nuclear, of course, is a lot more expensive than other forms of generation. and

so now the model is to figure out how do we bring all of these stakeholders together to make sure that no one party, frank is bearing all of that financial risk. >> all right. our pippa stevens live from sierra week with some breaking news. pippa, great to see you as always. thank you. turning back to this morning's breaking news, president trump's 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum officially going into effect this morning. for much more. let's bring in jesse gary, ceo of century aluminum. jesse, good morning. thanks so much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. so give us a sense these tariffs they've really rattled the market. but what does it mean specifically for your business. >> well you know frank. >> the aluminum industry in the us has been under threat from china and other. >> foreign actors. >> for a number of decades now. >> and these tariffs give us. >> a chance to reinvest into this industry, bring production back, bring. >> and probably. >> most importantly. >> bring jobs back to. >> the us. >> all right. so according to your most latest earnings report, there's actually an annual shortfall of aluminum here in the us of about 4 million tons. these tariffs how does that impact that. what does

it do for your business and specifically prices. we were looking at the aluminum prices since the president announced these across the board tariffs. aluminum only up 1.5%. why isn't it up higher. >> yeah it's interesting. >> we you know we've been through this before. >> in 2018, when. >> president trump initially took action to help the. >> us steel and aluminum industry. >> and there. >> are a lot of. >> calls that it was going to. >> raise prices. >> but in actuality, we didn't. >> see price increases. >> but we did see benefit for domestic industry. >> so coming. out of. >> 2018. >> us aluminum production. >> was up 40%. >> and we think we'll. >> see a similar increase this. >> time around. >> and for century. >> specifically, we're ready to invest in the. >> first new. >> smelter in. >> the us to. >> be built in the last. >> 50 years. >> that new. >> smelter alone. >> will double us production. >> all right. so just to be clear, smelter is the way you make aluminum. it's like a big capex investment to produce aluminum. last year you got about $500 million from the department of energy to help partially fund this project. of course, it's more than $500 million to create one of these

right. >> correct. >> it's a multi-billion. >> dollar project. >> frank will. >> create over 1000. >> permanent jobs. >> over 6000 jobs during construction, and really be one of the biggest. >> economic development. >> projects in the state where it will be built. >> okay, so that process didn't create us to increase. excuse me, us production, it's already underway. so then what do these tariffs do. there's a 4 million ton shortfall. it's going to take you a couple of years i would imagine to build this smelter. so what happens in the in-between time. >> yeah. >> so we have. >> other opportunities. >> and what you saw in. 2018 is that. production that had been. curtailed was restarted. and that's where you. >> got some quick. >> gains and a 40%. increase in. 2018 and. >> 2019, in us aluminum production. >> and then we'll invest for the future with this new cutting edge. >> smelter. >> which will. really secure the us industry for the next. >> 50 years. >> okay, that's your business, but isn't this a bit of a double edged sword? these tariffs, they can certainly raise business uncertainty. a lot of business leaders seem to be holding off on big decisions or pulling back on hiring decisions. if we're seeing a slowdown in the economy, doesn't that also hurt your business?

>> well, we heard this. >> the first time. >> around as well, but in. >> 2018. >> we really didn't. >> see any slowdown. >> and in fact, we didn't see any inflationary. >> pressure either. >> there's been a number of economic studies. >> that have been. >> done on those 2018. >> steel and. >> aluminum tariffs. >> by economic policy institute, us, itc. >> coalition for a prosperous america. >> what they. found no. >> price increase, no. >> increase on downstream demand. in fact, we saw downstream demand. increase and jobs increase in the industry. >> all right. so according to your data, actually china represents about 65% of global demand. but you say your business is mostly focused on the us and europe today, europe announcing retaliatory tariffs. how do you see that impacting your business. >> well you know the us has. >> the. >> lowest tariff rates in the world. >> so retaliation to. >> me seems a. >> bit strange when we're already at the lowest rates in the world. >> so i'll leave the diplomacy to. >> the president. >> but what we'll do is do our job and bring on production. >> as is intended. >> so what happens when us production doubles when you get the smelter finished? does that mean we have a surplus here in the us? does that push prices

down? i mean, i think everybody's trying to figure out the actual aftermath of this trade war. we know it's creating short term volatility, but what's the long term impact specifically for your industry? >> yeah. >> the long term impact. >> is we're going to restart manufacturing. >> in the united states. it's important to realize the types of jobs we're creating. our average worker has an average wage and benefit. >> package of $140,000. >> these are not college jobs. these are high. school education jobs. >> but. >> they're high skilled jobs. and we spend a lot of time investing in our people. and this is the type these you know, these are really the. >> types of. >> jobs that the president wants to create. >> all right. >> jesse gary, thank you so much for joining us. we have to check back in with you as we see this kind of unfold, this this tariff war and this trade war. really appreciate your time. ceo of century aluminum. >> thanks, frank. >> all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange. our next guest says investors may be able to find a growth opportunity. as tariff and recession fears may tariff and recession fears may continue to rattle at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants.

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weekdays, two eastern. cnbc the consumer price index for february. crucial new insight into inflation and the health of the economy. what it means for your investments right now. stay ahead of the market. squawk box today, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. don't miss a members only event. >> we make sure that club members get the access they need to make more informed decisions. >> join the cnbc investing club to access jim's monthly meeting. go to cnbc. com slash monthly meeting. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. quick look at us futures right now. we've been talking about it all morning in the green off across the board after a very volatile day yesterday. take a look. looks like the dow would open up about 200 points higher. up just under a half a percent. the s&p moving up over half a percent. similar story for the nasdaq as well. i want to take a quick look at the s&p 500 premarket gainers right there on the top of the list. that's intel. we kind of touched

on this very briefly earlier. intel shares up about 8% on a report that tsmc pitched an intel foundry joint venture to nvidia, amd and broadcom moving that stock higher. tesla, palantir and nrg rounding out the top performers on the s&p 500. and looking at the nasdaq 100 gainers right now, intel top of the list there, followed by apple and tesla and palantir. kind of similar breakdown when it comes to the nasdaq and the s&p in the premarket. all right. turning back to the markets and the trading day ahead. let's bring in katrina dudley, senior vice president and investment strategist at franklin templeton. katrina, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning. good to see you. >> good morning. >> good morning. how are you? good morning. >> how are you? i want to get a sense. what do you make of what's going on in the future? seeing futures move higher after a lot of volatility yesterday. and of course, this is the day that the tariffs on steel and aluminum actually take effect. >> in terms. >> of the. >> tariffs we are actually i think that there's. >> a lot of uncertainty in the market. >> as we see it currently. >> i think that's been reflected in such pessimist pessimism and such a pessimistic. attitude of

investors. and that's. >> driving fear. >> in the market. and we think that that's what the opportunity. >> is here. >> all right. so you're seeing opportunity i want to get your word of the day. >> my word of the. >> day. >> is actually efficiency. and it's an unusual. >> word of the. >> day to have. but i. >> think that we. want to be thinking about. >> what does. >> that mean when. >> we talk about tariffs. what that. >> is doing. >> is driving investor. fears that we may be. >> heading into a recession. >> and we've heard the president, we've heard him talk about the fact that maybe he will let the economy go into a recession. >> because he's doing. >> the right things. and when you go into a recession, companies will focus. >> on efficiency. >> and that. >> is what. >> is driving our investments in terms of what we're at. >> the outlook. >> is what type of investments or what type of expenditures will companies make in order to drive efficiencies if they see revenue slowing? >> so you're concerned about companies seeking efficiencies. you're also seeing opportunity. let's get to where you're seeing those opportunities. what's your pick.

>> look i think that. >> i just. >> want to clarify. >> we're concerned that. >> the economy goes. >> into a recession. >> we see opportunity from efficiencies. >> and that. is driving our investor pick. the investor. >> pick is. >> looking at. focused growth companies. that is not the mag seven. >> i think we've been talking about that as being. >> very much. >> an. area where investors. >> are overexposed. >> but we're looking at the average growth. stock that is going to help a company drive margin. >> improvement and efficiencies. it could be from things such as. >> ai. >> better running of their operations, and we think that is where we're going to see the next level of investment as. we go through this cycle. >> all right. just to clarify for the audience, just listening your picks, the fog, the franklin focused growth etf katrina dudley great to see you. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> a quick look at futures before we let you go again. futures in the green across the board. we've been talking about it all morning long after a very volatile day yesterday. futures solidly in the green. the dow

looks like it would open up almost 200 points higher. s&p and nasdaq both up over a half a percent. and a look at the bond market right now the treasuries taking a look at those. we saw them at about 4.27 earlier today. of course we have the cpi report coming up later today. we've seen a bit of an upside move when it comes to the benchmark when it comes to that right now at 4.27. that does it for worldwide exchange. squawk box starts right now. >> good morning. president trump. >> targeting countries. >> around the world. >> with new tariffs on steel and aluminum. the european. >> union immediately. >> retaliating retaliating. >> in tariffs. >> would have. >> been even higher on canada if not for some quick economic diplomacy. yesterday in the house, narrowly passing a government funding bill that heads to the senate now. but its fate there is uncertain. >> and we'll. >> talk about that. prospects in the senate, even though. >> he's the. speaker of. >> the house. >> but he got it done. mike johnson at 8 a.m. and the trump

administration slashing the department of education, a big percentage of workers set to be fired. we're going to bring. >> you details. >> on that developing story on this wednesday, march 13th, 2025. squawk box begins right now. >> good morning everybody. welcome to. squawk box right here. >> on cnbc. >> we're live. >> from. >> the nasdaq market. >> site in. times square. >> i'm becky quick. >> along with joe kernan and andrew. ross sorkin. and this. morning things look to be. stabilizing at least a little bit. at this. point it's a ways. >> to go. >> before. >> the opening bell. and we do have some big. data at 830. >> before we. >> get there. but right now it. >> looks like the dow futures are indicated. >> up by about 200 points. nasdaq futures. >> indicated up by almost 170 and the s&p up