anything happened it is unacceptable and will be closely reviewed. he will be reimbursed $250 and bumped to the front of the cabin for his return to london. he found toothpaste squirtd around the kit and the fragrance was missing. so the next time you check your luggage, you might want to check afterwards to see if it passes the sniff test. even his waterproof rain coat got sprinkled. >> that spent time in the shower yesterday getting a good washing off. >> reporter: new regulation, no urinating on the luggage. with a bag this smelly, you could use an oxygen mask. jeanne moos, cnn. >> it's like a toilet. >> reporter: new york. >> that's it for me. thanks for watching. i'm wolf blitzer in the situation room. world report is next for international viewers. in north america, john king usa

starts now. thanks for joining us. i am joe johns. john king is off. tonight, important news about the war in afghanistan. senior white house official tells cnn president obama is ordering all 33,000 u.s. surge forces to leave afghanistan by summer of 2012, specifically the official tells cnn forces will be withdrawn by no later than september next year. the president will make that announcement in an important speech in about an hour. you will see it live here on cnn. during this hour, we're using cnn's global resources, including correspondents here in washington and afghanistan to give you a closer look at tonight's high stakes in the war on terrorism. for u.s. taxpayers and for the president politically. let's start with what cnn's white house correspondent brianna keeler learned about what the president will say tonight. >> the headlines are the numbers, and the breakdown on bringing the 33,000 troops home from afghanistan, no later than

september, 2012, this according to a senior administration official. 10,000 home by end of this year, 2011. remaining 23,000 surge troops coming home no later than september of 2012. keep in mind, joe, that leaves a significant number of u.s. troops, about 70,000 in afghanistan, through 2014, though this draw down that we have new numbers on, that is quicker than the initial reports we were hearing. >> always important when a president gives a speech like this with such high stakes for him to make his case for why it's acceptable in this case to bring troops out of afghanistan. what do you expect he is going to say? >> joe, for days we heard a concerted effort from white house officials to justify a draw down. expect the president to continue on that. some of the points we've been hearing, the successes that u.s. troops have had against al qaeda, namely, killing osama bin

laden, being able to push the taliban back from population centers, and readying afghan forces to take over control. here, a lot of emphasis on that, joe. there are still some challenges, especially the tenuous relationship with pakistan. but certainly it is the successes that president obama will highlight. >> brianna keeler at the white house, thanks for that. president obama will be speaking to a number of important audiences tonight. we're going to explore each of them in detail. starting on capitol hill, where sentiment about the afghanistan war really appeared to be shifting, and quite rapidly, making for some very strange alliances. senior congressional correspondent janet bash has been keeping track. >> reporter: for a growing number of lawmakers is not going to be enough. they believe troops should come home more quickly. it was interesting. i talked to democrats and

republicans, conservatives and liberals who rarely agree on everything who were saying the same thing when it comes to the mission in afghanistan, that osama bin laden is dead, that the threat of al qaeda in afghanistan is now diminished, that's what's going on there now is more nation building, and for those reasons, they believe it is time to bring many, many more troops home. the other issue i am hearing from democrats and republicans is cost, the cost in lives and the cost in dollars. and at a time where this congress is trying to take away money in places that affect their constituents at home, they say they have a harder time justifying spending this money in afghanistan. i should note that's a growing sentiment, not necessarily the majority. we're hearing it is too precipitous, you will hear that from both sides of the aisle. >> a cost benefits analysis in the end. we are talking about afghanistan. the other fight on capitol hill is u.s. involvement in libya. give us an idea what you're

learning about the resistance on the hill on that front. >> the headline is that house republicans have decided to put up a bill to de-fund the military mission in libya. what's most interesting about that, this changed from yesterday, joe. yesterday, how the republican leadership said they would have a resolution, nonbinding resolution to say they would not allow u.s. troops to participate in combat missions. that changed because of a private meeting among house republicans, rank and file said the leadership is not tough enough, we want to be tougher when it comes to president obama, send a message for the way he handled this mission, that he hasn't come to congress. that's why the house republican leadership is going to change that and probably going to have that vote as soon as this week. >> really very interesting to see the position the republicans are taking. thanks for that, dana. we will be checking back. two important audiences for the speech are in afghanistan, the men and women of the u.s. military, of course, as well as

the afghan government. nick walsh joins us from bag ram air force base. nick, what's the reaction in afghanistan as the president announces the surge troops are going to start coming home? >> reporter: the commander in chief hasn't spoken yet, we privately hear that he is ordering the end of the longest ever war. it is fair to say not the same energy for this conflict that we have seen previously or even iraq. one said we got bin laden, the job is done, we should go home. another expressed fears that a precipitous withdrawal could let the taliban come back in force. i think a recognition of the dangers here, but also perhaps acknowledgment that maybe some of america's cards are being

played. >> that question of a vacuum being created and the taliban stepping into it, to sort of seize control, how likely is that for real? >> reporter: i think across the whole country that is unlikely because of the pockets created in kabul. you go out towards the afghan, pakistani border where we sent a cameraman recently, there is a town where it does appear the taliban have significant influence. we have some camera men there that filmed a flag above the local administration building, people talking there about how the taliban were providing some kind of system there. they deny that, contest that the taliban have control over the areas and say the pictures we receive amount to some sort of propaganda. afghan officials accepting since

late march of this year that taliban insurgency have had a pretty strong grip over this particular area, a place where they used to be nato outposts, they pulled away, afghan security forces rushed in to try to control. eventually, the insurgency seems to have gotten the upper hand. >> nick peyton walsh, thanks for that. we will be asking more questions as we progress. tonight we're told defense secretary robert gates among others, wanted the president to go with smaller troop draw down. reaction from the pentagon next. protect your family with the gift of financial security. backed by the highest possible ratings for financial strength. new york life. the company you keep.

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learn more at chantix.com. you want to keep your loved ones safe and secure. give them the gift of financial security from new york life. we've been protecting families for over 166 years. new york life. the company you keep. we are waiting for president obama's announcement of u.s. troop draw down in afghanistan. a white house official tells us the president will announce all 33,000 surge forces will be fully withdrawn from afghanistan by summer of 2012, but another source tells cnn top defense officials were pushing for a smaller draw down. joining us, cnn correspondent chris lawrence, and chris, we're going to talk about the taliban and the size of the people on the ground. >> that's right. well, sources tell us, joe, that basically if this department was pushing for a smaller draw down,

a gradual draw down, no more than 5,000 troops by end of the year and probably keeping bulk of the surge through end of next year, not just the summer. here is why. you look at the taliban presence. afghanistan has what's known as fighting seasons. which means they go after the taliban in the spring and summer. then when the taliban go to ground in the winter, u.s. troops consolidate a lot of their gain. if the troops are out by summer, they are not going to have the surge troops next winter to consolidate some of those gangs. but some people look at it, say when you look at troop levels and say this is a massive reduction, you're still going to have around 70,000 u.s. troops in afghanistan even at the end of next year, and that is twice the number, joe, twice the number that was there when president george w. bush left office. >> so there's still a lot of troops on the ground dealing

with a small number of taliban. >> that's right. >> why do we need so many people to fight so few people? >> because we're doing more than just fighting, we are building up institutions, we're building schools, trying to raise a government, we're doing more than a bang, bang. >> this is the civilian surge. >> the military is doing a lot of it, the military has been providing security to allow a lot of that to go on. >> great, thanks so much, chris lawrence. appreciate your reporting. let's explore the impact of the president's decision to withdraw surge forces. joining us from london, cnn's national security contributor fran town send who advised president george w. bush, is now on the external advisory board for the cia and department of homeland security, and also in london, senior international correspondent nic robertson, who reported extensively from afghanistan, and with us here in

washington, retired army bringing deer mark kem et, involved in key deliberations about afghanistan during the bush administration. let's start with you, nic. you spent a lot of time in afghanistan. how different is the situation on the ground now compared to before president obama took office? >> the surge contributed to bringing better stability and better chance of getting afghan governments into places like kandahar, but the number of troops involved in the surge and number of troops across the whole country really can't provide that same level of control over key cities around the country that perhaps we would all want to see. that would give the afghan government a chance to put in their police, to build up their army, get their army to come in, back fill behind the successes that the surge troops had. but the reality is, commanders on the ground have taken ground. they wanted to move the surge

troops to combat the taliban in other locations, but haven't been able to back fill with afghan forces because they haven't been ready. part of the reason they haven't been ready is the real sense there hasn't been a real strong political commitment from the afghan leadership, and that comes to a lot of reasons. president karzai, trying to share power with power brokers around the country. the taliban despite gains made by the surge, kandahar an example, police chief put in there last year killed despite the fact he had security around him. that's an afghan partner that a lot of u.s. forces were counting onto help deliver. so the taliban has still been able to pack some big, significant punches in kandahar. successes have been there. the ability to build on them hasn't happened. >> i want to go to the general. i want to ask you to listen to a

sound bite here, democratic senator bob menendez was on cbs this morning, critical of the president's decision to leave so many troops there to keep fighting. let's listen. >> spending $10 billion a month in this counter insurgency effort. we spent nearly $38 billion to stand up, 290,000 afghan security forces. seems to me if 290,000 afghan security forces can't fight 20,000 taliban fighters, 14 to 1 ratio, then we're in deeper trouble than we think. >> what do you think. number one, do the numbers sound about accurate to you? i guess the other question is just about the afghan forces. are they ready to do this themselves? >> the numbers, if those are the correct numbers, i have no doubt they are correct, however, i think he comes across missing a point. if every american leaves now, there will be a security vacuum that will not be filled by the

afghan national security forces, it will be filled by the taliban, and all the work, the blood and treasure that's been given by the soldiers and by the country will be for naught. we saw that happen before. soviet left in '89, taliban took over, ten years of heinous occupation. now, are afghan forces ready? they are in far better shape now than as recently as a year and a half ago. general bill caldwell has done tremendous work on the training side, the fighting side, all led by petraeus. to be able to turn the security responsibilities over to the afghan security forces, they are coming along, but they will still need significant american presence to help them in that training and mentoring for years to come. >> the u.s. experience in iraq perhaps is a little instructive on what happens when you turn

power and control over to forces on the ground in another country like this? >> there's always a danger in making false comparisons. i think there are good comparisons between the handover the security responsibility to the iraqi security forces and the same plan that's being presented inside of afghanistan. good lessons learned in afghanistan. iraqi security forces clearly have security responsibility now. let's take the time to do it right with the afghans and we could have the same outcome. >> let me get fran thompson in here. we heard reports that general petraeus recommended a smaller withdrawal than the president will announce. what do you think? >> you heard from mark and nic, these are fragile gains. less than a week ago, at that time ban executed multiple simultaneous suicide attacks in kabul. that is the last perimeter for coalition forces, and one that's always been closely guarded. this is a time when the taliban will begin to test us.

i think what you are hearing from the pentagon from general petraeus and secretary gates, make the initial draw down modest. do it in a way that doesn't have us pulling forces out but not replace forces rotating back, do it slowly, so it is not perfect septemberable, and the ability to use force when necessary. it will be interesting to see how when you look at the numbers we're talking now, 10,000 by end of the year opposed to 3 to 5,000 recommended by commanders in the field, this is double. how will they manage that, not lose the fragile gains we have gotten by use of blood and treasure. >> great. okay. general, i would like to ask you the question that chris lawrence talked about a little while ago, the idea of the seasons and importance of them to people who are fighting on the ground in

afghanistan. how important the season? >> the weather, you get in the high country, you can't fight in that snow in a dramatic way. you can't. you basically hunker down. that's the time if there's going to be minor reduction, that's the best time to do it. let's not rush to failure by speeding this too quickly. if you try to do it too quickly, you will probably do it wrong, old action ee om in the military. i agree, let's do it in a slower pace in the nonfighting season, there will probably be a better outcome and set it up better for afghan security forces to take over. >> thanks for joining us. even though the president's troop announcement is getting most of the attention, there are other important stories you should know about. next, a gloomy assessment about the u.s. economy, and the first lady gives new life to a political slogan you're probably

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welcome back. here is the latest news you need to know right now. a law enforcement official says the fbi has recovered evidence yinging the man arrested in the bomb scare at the pentagon with a string of five shootings last fall at the pentagon and other military facilities. federal reserve chairman ben

bernanke predicts slower than expected economic growth this year, and only slight decline in unemployment. a tsunami advisory was lifted, and no damage is reported after a magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck off japan's coast about 90 minutes ago. in south africa today, michelle obama encouraged women to take on the challenges of fighting poverty, hunger, hiv and aids, and introduced south africans to a phrase you'll recognize. >> and if any one of you ever doubts that you can build that future, if anyone ever tells you that you shouldn't or you can't, then i want you to say with one voice, the voice of a generation, you tell them yes we can. >> and for how mrs. obama's speech went over, let's check in with cnn international correspondent. >> reporter: the first lady's

speech received a huge reaction. some people going as far as saying the best speech they've heard this year. she managed to inspire. she paid tribute to those that fought for democracy in this country, but she also challenged the youth of africa. she says the continent is facing new challenges and they need to take up the fight. she spoke about hiv, aids, unemployment, poverty, she said to the youth of today that the nelson mandelas of this world were the freedom generation. what kind of generation will they be. she's also here to reiterate her husband's african policy. she said the united states is not happy being a helping hand for africa, but they want to be a partner with africa. this speech comes at a crucial time on the african continent. everywhere i go, young people are talking about being masters of their own destiny. they are sick and tired of being aid dependent, and i think mrs. obama was speaking their

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as we await president obama's speech on u.s. troop

levels in afghanistan, our next guest says the question the president and all of us face is quite simple. will we choose to rebuild america or afghanistan? senator joe manchin of west virginia incurred the wrath of senator john mccain when he asked that question on the senate floor. but senator manchin had the last word. >> i can only speak from a sense of common sense and speaking for the people of west virginia and what they feel. we have a hawkish state and very patriotic state, but if ten years is not enough, how long is enough? and i think that's the question being asked. the sacrifices being asked by them. when we can't build the water lines and sewer lines in west virginia that are needed, fix roads and repair the bridges, yet they hear of the billions we're spending in a country that doesn't want us there, i think it is time to leave. >> senator manchin, thank you for joining us. military leaders and colleagues of yours on both sides of the aisle say significant withdrawal

in the short term could be disastrous to the progress of the u.s. and its allies made in afghanistan. you said yesterday it is time to leave. you disagree with this assessment. what makes you think that? >> well, i believe if we would go back and change the mission to war on terror, counter terrorism which is why we got there in the first place, harm done to our country, innocent lives lost, we went looking for the terrorists that did that, and it turned into what we have today. i don't think we should be there trying to nation build. we need to rebuild america. we have a lot of needs in west virginia as all america does. i think we can do a much better job back home. we're facing financial challenges, and i think our war on terror should be very direct. i know we can do that mission. we did it, we found osama bin laden. they can't hide. we have the greatest special op forces in the world, and they are quick, mobile, and fluid. i think let them do their job. we shouldn't be there trying to

build a nation and place they don't want us anyway. >> is your position pull them all out now, and if so, is there a risk in your view that immediate withdrawal will cost the united states more in the long run if we have to go back and clean up the aftermath? >> joe, here is the thing, i have never nor have i attempted to tell military experts and generals and all the forces we have so much expertise how to do their job. i know one thing. when the civilians give the military in america the mission to be done, it's accomplished and it would be done in the best manner that possibly could. so i would not advocate any of the things that would be harmful to the troops we have and what we accomplished. but other than that, how long is enough? if ten years is not going to get the job done, are we there to build their nation, indefinitely in perpetuity? i don't believe we should be. >> that was quite an exchange on the senate floor. your original speech yesterday elicited immediate response from

senator mccain. let's listen to what he had to say. >> i feel compelled to respond to the statements by the senator from west virginia which characterize the isolationist withdrawal, lack of knowledge of history attitude that seems to be on the rise of america. in case the senator from west virginia forgot it, or never knew it, we withdrew from afghanistan one time. we withdrew from afghanistan and the taliban came eventually followed by al qaeda, followed by attacks on the united states of america. >> senator mccain really went after you. he called your statement uninformed on the challenges posed by al qaeda. the question is this. should the fiscal concerns outweigh security risks posed by faster withdrawal? >> joe, let me say first of all john mccain, i am proud to serve with john mccain. he's a great american.

he's made tremendous sacrifices and his service to his country unquestioned. with that being said, i don't have the experience he has. but what i do have like most west virginians is a little common sense, and enough is enough, and if ten years hasn't done it, we spent 443 billion. on track to spend another 485 billion. i don't believe america's purpose was ever to go over and rebuild afghanistan. you have a country that doesn't have infrastructure, don't have an economy, by all accounts has a corrupt government. that's not a country we c can rebuild or should rebuild. >> secretary gates said scaling back engagement with the rest of the world calls our commitment into question being a world super power. are you comfortable in a world where the u.s. is no longer a super power? >> i think in order to be strong, you have to be strong within and take care of your own also. if we're not careful, we can get

in a position we can't help the needs of americans. i don't want to get in that position. we are a super power, always have been and always will be. but we ought to direct efforts back home again. >> senator manchin, thank you very much for coming in to talk with us a few minutes. we'll be watching the speech with you tonight. >> thank you, joe. president obama hasn't made his troop withdrawal announcement yet. it is at the top of the hour. but the political fallout has already started. that's next. or when you're distracted? when you're falling asleep at the wheel? do you know how you'll react? lexus can now precisely test the most unpredictable variable in a car -- the driver. when you pursue perfection, you don't just engineer the world's most advanced driving simulator. you engineer amazing. ♪

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they are discussing the policy of the president's decision. gloria, to start off, over the weekend, john mccain talked about this isolationist strain taking over the country. maybe we can listen to a little of what he said to dana bash when she asked him about it. >> i think it is war weariness on the part of all our citizens which is being reflected in our candidates. i also think it is a dislike of president obama which sometimes effects reviews of at least some. and i worry about it a great deal. it's always been there in our party. >> so you know, republicans were

supposed to be the national security party, weren't they? >> yeah. >> what happened? >> this could be a seismic shift in american politics. i was talking to senior white house adviser who was emphasizing what he called the president's steadiness on foreign policy as compared to the republicans whom he says are all over the lot. obviously this is a barack obama person, but when you look at the republican party, you have the mccain wing, including lindsey graham, for example, and then you have some presidential candidates who we heard in the debate calling for withdrawal from afghanistan. it used to be in the 2008 election, i remember ron paul seemed to be the odd man out when it came to foreign policy. now he seems to feel a little more comfortable within the republican framework, and i would have to say, joe, it is really because of money issues. you just interviewed senator manchin. it is all about not only people being more weary, but you have

that deficit, and people are saying what about us back home. >> david gergen, let me bring you in. do you agree this could be a seismic shift or is it more about money and once we get out of the financial situation in the country, we'll go back to the way the parties were before? >> i worry that it's a shift. in the short term, it is very much driven by money and war weariness, but the republican party as you well know, joe, was for a long time the isolationist party in the country, did not want to go into world war ii, held back on that, really wanted to hold back after some of the war, then it became the internationalist party, and really had kept that banner up for a decade after decade, especially after vietnam, and it is i think very concerning. there was a part of that party that was also way hawkish, and i think more than the neocon, but

the party has been internationalist party. it is the recent traditions, i think it will be a loss for the country. >> gloria, i read your article, you talk about how the white house is going to emphasize consistency, but out of the country, it is chaotic. >> the white house is going to say they gave a speech in west point in december of 2009, that was when the surge policy was introduced. at that time, they got criticized for it because it was a timetable. the president said we're going to withdraw in 18 months, if certain goals are accomplished. they say they've had some success in defeating al qaeda, for example, killing osama bin laden, so they're going to say they had the success, but around the country, the american public and republicans, and this is what david is talking about, are reacting to the economic problems at home, and there are questions and i guarantee this after the president's speech, don't forget, we still have 70,000 troops remaining there. people are going to say okay, if

we have been such a success, why do we need to keep 70,000 troops there? so you've got lots of views on the country about this. hard to win on this one. >> kind of interesting, too. the administration almost has to go out and say we're not going to say "mission accomplished". >> of course not. >> but david, aren't they going to have to send the message that the mission is pretty much accomplished? >> i think, yes, they're going to have to say and i think they will say the main mission was to defeat, destroy al qaeda, and they have made very remarkable progress taking out main al qaeda leaders, about 30 at the top and they have taken out about 20. they have made progress. i think gloria is right, a lot of people, especially on the left, want to pull out all together. on the right, people will say wait a minute, you entrusted this to general petraeus and trusted bob gates. they persuaded you to put in place this surge. now these same people are coming

back and saying we need a little more time, don't do it too fast, and you basically reject a lot of their advice. >> it is interesting. i think the death of osama bin laden made it easier for the white house to meet that timetable. they can say we're changing from broad counter insurgency strategy to a much more narrow strategy along the lines of how we killed osama bin laden. so they can say that look, we had some success, degraded al qaeda, we hurt the taliban, we helped the afghan security forces, now it's time for us to go back to a narrower policy, which david points out the generals may not like, but the generals won last time around. this time, i think joe biden is the winner here. >> there's no question that general petraeus wanted to have a much slower draw down, and

that he wanted to leave basically most of the troops in place through next year, through the next season, and that's not going to happen because of this. >> thank you both so much. fascinating discussion. we are getting closer and closer, minutes away from president obama's live address to the nation on u.s. involvement in afghanistan. wolf blitzer and anderson cooper up next. this past year alone there was a 93% increase in cyber attacks. in financial transactions... on devices... in social interactions... and applications in the cloud. some companies are worried. some, not so much. thanks to a network that secures it all and knows what to keep in, and what to keep out. outsmart the threats.

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here to continue our coverage as we wait for the president's address on >> we're only a few minutes away from a pivotal moment for president obama and for the nation. the commander in chief about to outline his plan for withdrawing u.s. forces from afghanistan. this could be the beginning of the end of america's longest war. i'm wolf blitzer in washington. >> and i'm anderson cooper in new york. the president will order all 30,000 surge troops to leave afghanistan by the end of september 2012, just before the presidential election. >> that will still leave about 70,000 u.s. troops in

afghanistan after the surge troops as they're called when the president appears in the white house east room in a few moments he'll be walking a very careful line trying to balance national security and american public opinion as polls show americans increasingly tired of the war and its very high cost. let's go to the white house. our correspondent brianna keilar is standing by. set the stage for us. >> reporter: the headline certainly is the numbers. we do know ahead of the president's remarks from a senior administration official that the breakdown is like this. 10,000 surge troops home by the end of this year, 2011. the remainder, 23,000 more troops, home by the end of summer 2012, no later than september we're told. what we should be expecting the president to do is really make his case. we've been hearing white house officials doing this for days. justifying why this drawdown is okay. among the reasons, we're really expecting him to go back to the remarks that he made in december of 2009 announcing these surge

troops and try to make his point that he's accomplished the objectives he laid out namely to really put a dent in al qaeda, which he'll of course point to the killing of osama bin laden in that and also as one of his goals said to curb the momentum of the taliban, also preparing afghan security forces and the government to take the lead. but, wolf, i think you can't miss the fact that there are still challenges when it comes to afghan security forces and also one of the ways the president said he would accomplish this goal is cooperation with pakistan knowing that success in afghanistan is linked to the relationship with pakistan which is arguably in a very difficult situation right now, wolf. >> as he pointed out in that speech that you referenced. when he took office, there were 22,000 u.s. troops and now there are 40,000 nato troops and

doubled down in afghanistan on the countersurgesy strategy. >> reporter: he said it was a forgotten war and there were so many troops in iraq and there was slipping success in afghanistan and it needed to be addressed. certainly the planning for the 9/11 attacks went. he justified that adding extra troops saying that more troops could go in shortly after he was elected, wolf, and then also with that announcement of surge troops in december of 2009 at the same time announcing that surge he announced that next month, july, would be the time that he would be bringing them home. >> brianna keilar at the white house. stand by. anderson, i'll be anxious to hear if the president in his remarks tonight actually addresses the cost to american taxpayers of maintaining tens of thousands of u.s. troops in afghanistan. >> also all of the wasted money that has gone missing in

afghanistan and been squandered over the years. the president anticipated to speak in seven or eight minutes from now. we believe in the east room of the white house. the president has been getting plenty of advice and pressure from members of congress. war fatigue reaching across party lines. joining us is our senior congressional correspondent, dana bash. it seems like in the tea party movement a growing fatigue with this war that's gone on now for some ten years. >> reporter: there is among tea party backed republicans and veteran republicans i talked to today who are simply saying that they are hearing from their constituents back home, anderson, that they've had enough. it is time to bring the troops home. you definitely get a sense that this is a goldilocks strategy that the president is pushing forward here. he just thinks he's doing it just right because he does have both republicans and democrats here in congress. it's a growing number. both of them saying that it is just not enough. he needs to bring many more troops home than he's going to

say tonight. on the other hand you have republicans and democrats saying that they believe that he's going too far and that it is too precipitous and he needs to listen to commanders and military officers who we're told think this is going too far in the number of troops he's going to announce that he wants to come home. >> dana, on capitol hill we've also seen heated debates in the last two days or so. joe mansion from west virginia made a statement in which he talked about an accelerated bringing home of troops from afghanistan. john mccain quickly responded to that basically saying he was uninformed. >> reporter: it just shows you the split here and again it is not by party. it really depends on the person. there really is a split within both parties on how this is shaking out when it comes to how many troops should come home. you can't underestimate the argument that was made which is i heard from many, many republicans and democrats of the cost in lives and money at a time when congress is trying to

slash funding and trying to make as much money as they can count towards things that matter here at home. it's harder for them to justify spending $10 billion a month in afghanistan. >> dana bash, we'll be talking to you right after the president's speech. again, that's in about seven minutes or so. nick, how does the drawdown impact operations on the ground? >> reporter: interesting you ask that. numbers we're talking about sound -- >> we're having technical problems with nick. not often easy coming from afghanistan live. joining us now is candy crowley. candy, what do you see this speech as a result of? how much of this is the result of election year politics and how much of it is facts on the

ground? >> i think every american, reporters included, hope this is about facts on the ground. we can't tell what the political intent is but we can tell what the political implication is. there always are going to be political implications to any decision a president makes in what is a presidential election cycle. it will mean by the summer before the november election next year, the extra troops that the president put in the so-called surge, the 33,000, will be out of afghanistan. you hear a lot from the white house these days and from the president's campaign about the word trajectory. they say if unemployment is headed down, if trajectory is right, people will feel better about the economy and that will help the president. as far as afghanistan is concerned, if they can convince the american people that the war really is winding down, even though they will have 68,000 troops, twice as many almost as when the president took office, 68,000 troops still remaining in afghanistan, they believe if

folks are convinced come election time a year from november that the war in afghanistan is winding down, that the trajectory is good, then that will help him. but you will hear the white house say over and over again this has to do with the fact that we have done what the president set out to do with these surge numbers. you don't hear them talk about politics. it doesn't mean it won't affect politics. >> i want to bring in our david gergen standing by with me as well. it's interesting. joe klein had an article saying this would be portrayed as bringing out those surge troops but at least in the initial troops that are being brought out, it's actually a lot of the troops noncombat troops. troops who were there to build facilities for surge troops who were coming in. >> we'll get confirmation in the speech. the initial troops coming out are support troops and not combat troops. what general petraeus had wanted was combat troops to stay not only this fighting season but next fighting season too. he didn't get that. he really wanted to reduce 3,000

to 5,000. >> is this about politics or president moving away from counterinsurgency strategy? >> it's the latter. in the west point speech in 2009 he embraced the counterinsurgency strategy. he's moving away from that requiring fewer troops on the ground and it's also a shift in terms of how won inside the debate of the white house. last time around bob gates and petraeus and hillary clinton won. this time they lost and joe biden won. people want to get out faster. >> wolf, we're about two or three minutes away. >> the president of the united states is certainly going to reiterate what he said at that west point speech about the mission. he's going to go through specifics of what he said then and then said on many of those specifics there has been enormous progress. let me bring in gloria borger. candy crowley, first. candy, very quickly right now, he can't