>> good evening, everyone, if the pictures don't lie, then the race took another entry today. >> that is a fight we're going to win. >> i don't think the folks of iowa are going to be real excited about the unemployment rate where it is, and the number of americans out of work. this president's been abject failure when it comes to the economy. >> when people wonder why is it the country hasn't rebooted yet? because the president got it wrong. >> the president's bus tour this week speaks volumes about the changing politics.

romney served one term as governor, perry is in his third. that's what this is about. >> i'm running for office because i believe that having spent my life in the private sector meaning in business, that i understand what it takes to get business going again. >> and perry's rebuttal? >> give him my love. >> and claim to have the job creation bragging rights. >> 40% of all the jobs created in america from june of 2009 until the present were created in texas. i know how to create jobs. >> a packed hour ahead, including putting that claim from governor perry to the truth test and showing you how the early 2012 map is so different from 2008. here to get us started are jessica yellin. and from austin texas tonight, mr. herman.

to you first, my friend. governor perry is in the race. president obama is in the midwest. they're in the same state of iowa. suddenly today we have a campaign of contrast? >> yes. it took a while for him to say it officially. you saw it officially saturday in south carolina. now it has that full time campaign feel to it. >> when you see the president. he is in minnesota, then the bus rolls into iowa. then it's going to go into rural illinois. these are places that he carried easily last time. these are states that if you look back at the 2008 map, these were not the problems. illinois, the president's home state one of the problems there, unemployment rate then and now. then you move over to iowa where the president is this evening. then and now. below the national average, but

still up. he was in minnesota earlier in the day. it's an economy turning blue states competitive. >> those are right near ohio, michigan, indiana, crucial states that he won last time that he really is in danger of losing this time. but he absolutely must win, for example ohio. must win if he's going to be president again. they know that, so they're selling this message, which is, as you say, about contrast, he can't really say much for his record in creating job. it's really about trying to hammer an owe bone end, there is no opponent yet. he's laying the groundwork in advance what he sees coming. >> this weekend you have perry and romney and congresswoman bachman will be out there. president obama out there making the contrast. one of the things they're going to argue about from now until next november. and by then we'll know who the republican nominee is.

is whether in the next election cycle, people should vote on a candidate that wants to raise taxes on the wealthy. the president quoting from an op-ed in "the new york times" by warren buffett. buffet writing, hey, it's about time, overdue, raise my taxes. listen to the president. >> warren buffett had an op-ed that he wrote today. where he said, we've got to stop coddling billionaires like me. you don't get those tax breaks. you're paying more than that. and now, i may be wrong, but i think you're a little less wealthy than warren buffett. that's just a guess. >> and governor perry and governor romney both on the campaign trail said no way. not happening. you can raise taxes on the rich. you are not going to solve the big deficit problems. that's not the solution. so we know at least one of the big contrasts we'll have as we wait to see who wins the republican wrestling match. >> yeah, there's no doubt governor perry and i guess all the major republicans say the problem is squarely on the spending side, not the revenue side. the same mantra governor perry

rode to re-election here in 2010, the same mantra the republicans who dominate our legislature here came to town on and we face a state projected up to $27 billion deficit for our next two-year budget cycle here when the legislature came to town. they came to town and said we're not raising taxes, we'll make the cuts, balance the budget. a lot of folks didn't believe them. whatever you think of this bunch, they are politicians who did in office exactly what they said they would do on the campaign trail. it will take a couple years to figure out the impact of that. it's possible some people who thought he like that idea might find that some of these cuts do impact them. we don't know that yet. >> what do we know about team obama when they look at the republican field? obviously governor pawlenty, someone they took seriously, viewed as a credible challenger. he's now gone. you have governor romney. they assumed he's the front-runner. now they have governor perry who instantly in the race has added

a jolt of energy in the past 72 hours. are they worried team obama more about one than the other? >> first, they love to run against michele bachmann, we all know that. are they worried about perry? yes. but they've focused on romney, they don't know what the reality is of the perry candidacy. there's a sense that there's a lot unknown there so that there's a little bit more to research and learn, that there's opportunity there that they can find and that they are such a formidable operation, they have such enormous confidence in their own ability, i don't detect a lot of nerves when it comes to running a campaign against an opponent. the challenge is to defend the jobs record. and as long as they can be offensive, they feel confident. if they have to be on the defensive, that's when they get nervous. >> den her man help us out as we get to know governor perry. a lot of our our viewers may say these familiar, i can't quite place him. you're asking questions in the briefing room. as a guy who covered bush in washington.

as we watch rick perry step out on the campaign trail, is what you're seeing and hearing, is that the same rick perry who's been the governor in austin, texas in >> yes, i think so far it is. like a lot of texans, his accent seems to get thicker the farther he gets from the state. he is a great campaigner. i think most people will find him, as i found with george w. bush, anyone who spends any time with him in a small group probably can't help but think he's a nice guy. you may not like his politics. they are both texans, but they are different kind of texans. governor perry pointed out he went to texas a&m, if you don't know that, it is just short of cult status. president bush went to yale. those are both texans, but there are some people that may find out that perry is, what a lot of them stereotype bush as. he's a west texan. he wears his cowboy boots proudly. he is, some people think t real deal when it comes to being a texan.

we'll see how that translates on the campaign trail. >> are you trying to say new haven's no in texas? it's funny because he was asked about this. governor perry knows, obviously, eventually he'll get to run on his record. but when you're the new candidate in the race and the last republican for president was a republican from texas. you're going to be asked about the comparisons, and this is what governor perry had to say today. >> i'm not going to sit here. george bush is not my opponent. he's a former president, we give him all the respect for that. we're talking about the next campaign. >> it's interesting when these guys first get in. it's often a different set of questions than they're asked in week two or three and if they make it month two and month three. >> he'll have to defend this jobs record. this is the case that he has to run on. texas has this great jobs record. but what's the reality in texas, low wages, et cetera. may i make one other point? two things that happened today with president obama on the campaign trail? you noticed he got a lot of

questions about health care reform at these town halls, which is surprising for people. he did say he'll come out with a specific jobs plan in september. which is different from what we're hearing from the white house. >> and the health questions, interesting. a lot of unhappy liberals out there saying why didn't you fight for single pair. let me come back to you on the point just made, when the governor talks about his job creation record, texas has created a lot of jobs, and texas also leads the nation, is competitive in the number of minimum wage jobs in the country. is that a brag that will stand up to the sunshine test? >> we'll find out. i think candidates don't like when the word "miracle" is applied to anything they've done because i know in my lifetime there's only been one miracle certified by the vatican, when the mets won. and scrutiny will be tough. there's a lot to scrutinize here. the texas economy is better off than a lot of states. when he came into office, i believe oil was $25.

it hit 150 in '08. it's still 80 to 90 i guess, i'll have to buy one on the way home i'll check. there are things that have happened. when economy goes bad, the governor or the president gets the blame whether it's really his blame -- his fault or not. so i guess they get to try to take the credit when things look better compared to other states. >> the massachusetts miracle was my first presidential campaign. >> we remember. >> the great did you dukakis case. lots to talk about in the months ahead. still to come here, indiana's governor updates us on the horrible deadly stage collapse at the state fair. next the highest ranking african-american congress on whether the president -- and you see him live in iowa speaking -- whether the president has the right road map. we'll also ask jim clyburn about his role on that new super committee. ♪ ♪ she was waiting up around the bend ♪

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live pictures the of the president of the united states, barack obama. he's in iowa tonight taking questions after giving a speech on a farm there, taking questions from voters. now he's on a bus tour. let me show you the map. the president of the united states on a bus tour that started in minnesota. it's going down from minnesota. he's now in iowa. he's in decora, iowa. then he's in some rural counties in illinois here. that's the president of the united states out here in the midwest, three states that were critical to him back in the 2008 campaign. illinois obviously his home state. the congressional black caucus proposes a jobs tour on the schedule right now through detroit, cleveland, atlanta, miami and los angeles. you see the president out here largely in white rural america. the cbc saying let's have a jo s focus in african-american and

minority communities across america. does the president's focus on states critical to his re-election overlooking communities that need his help. house democratic leader james clyburn. let's get straight to that. would you prefer -- i know you support the president and you know he needs to go to these electorally important states for him. but would you prefer if he does a jobs tour that he start in columbia south carolina where unemployment among african-americans is 19%, selma, alabama where it's above 20%? >> i don't think we have to worry about where he starts. the problem is where will the impact be of job creation? will we get a jobs bill out of the congress? i understand that the president's going to be coming forward in september with a comprehensive job bill. i hope that's the case. i'm also hopeful that, as we talk about deficit reduction, and those kinds of things, that

we can include job creation in those discussions as well. because the quickest way to reduce the deficit, i believe, is to get people back to work. they'll be paying taxes. they won't be drawing unemployment. and they will, in fact, be contributing to deficit reduction. so i would love to see a comprehensive jobs program in the very near future because i think that's what will get people's confidence restored and get our communities back on the right track. >> as you know, though, and you tend to be more diplomatic, especially on television, than some of your colleagues and i respect that, as you know there's been some grumbling. in the black caucus and the progressive community at large about the president's focus, whether the subject be deficit reduction or focusing on jobs. the chairman of the cbc said

this to the washington post just last week. what the president is doing is not the same as what we're doing. we have real jobs to give real people who are unemployed. this is not one of those deals where we go around and talk about jobs and hope somebody gives us some press attention. that's a pretty harsh criticism of the president of the united states, the first african-american president to the united states from a leading african-american in the congress, is it not? >> well, i didn't get that he was directly talking about the president there. i'm not too sure that there aren't other tours taking place that might have been the point of reference. i was with emmanuel cleaver over the weekend, and we had long talks about what's going on with the congressional black caucus tomorrow in detroit, later on in miami, atlanta and then out in los angeles. just because we're ending the tour in los angeles doesn't mean the emphasis is not on los angeles as well. we started in cleveland, ohio. 7,000 people showed up.

i think around 2,200 people got connected with jobs. i think that's what cleever was talking about, trying to do a jobs tour -- where we bring employers and potential employees into the same room and see if we can get the confidence restored again. because too many people stop looking. they just dropped out of the process altogether. we want to get them back in. the way you do that, i think, is the way the cbc is conducting this tour. i think that's what he had reference to. >> i want you to listen to some of the president on the trail today. he's being a bit more populist. he's the president of the united states. he holds the most powerful job in washington. yet he's making the case -- and i think you'd understand his frustration, he can't get a lot of things done because he can't get them through the congress. i want you to listen to this, and i would ask you if you would choose the same words. >> people are doing the right thing.

well, if you can do the right thing, then folks in washington have to do the right thing. and if we do that, there is not a problem that we face that we cannot solve. >> do you prefer -- you're the assistant democratic leader, you're in the minority now. the republicans control the house. would you prefer the president not blame the people in washington or the congress and specifically say the republicans? >> yes, i would prefer that. and i've had those discussions with the president. >> and why won't he get tougher with them? >> well, i hope he will. i don't know. i think the president by nature wants to be diplomatic. i'm the same way. i call myself a southern gentleman but there are times when i put that aside and go right to the core of the problem. the problem is that the republican leadership refuses to allow a jobs bill to come to the floor. i have one that's got bipartisan support.

it has a companion bill over in the senate that has bipartisan support. the co-sponsorship is bipartisan. but we cannot get them to bring this to the floor. and i think the president sooner or later is going to have to lay this right at the doorsteps of the republican leadership. we did not vote for all of these things that's got us in this problem today. democrats have supported his agenda and we still look forward to supporting him in the future. he needs to call the republicans out. that's who is stopping this legislation, not the democrats. >> congressman jim clyburn, the assistant democratic leader, appreciate your thoughts tonight. jobs the big issue on the presidential campaign today. jobs will be the big issue when the congress returns. sir, appreciate your time tonight. still ahead here, this weekend's dramatic changes in the republican presidential race. plus the weather service

issued high wind warnings two hours before this tragedy at the indiana state fair. was it a mistake not to warn the crowd sooner? indiana's governor briefs us often the investigation. the eagle flies at dawn. the monkey eats custard. price-line ne-go-ti-a-tor. so, you've been double crossed by other travel sites and now you want to try the real deal. yes, is it true that name your own price... ...got even easier? affirmative. we'll show you other people's winning hotel bids. so i'll know how much to bid... ...and save up to 60% i'm in i know the lady in leather travels on three wheels. wait, is that code? that's my secret weapon... ...naomi pryce see winning hotel bids now at priceline. you've been stuck in the garage, while my sneezing and my itchy eyes took refuge from the dust in here and the pollen outside. but with 24-hour zyrtec®, i get prescription strength relief

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welcome back. here's the latest news you need to know right now. libya's rebels report that fighters have entered several to towns enroute to the capital.

libya fired a short range scud missile sunday and it missed its target. jordan and turkey joined a list of nations calling on syria to end military operations against pro-democracy demonstrators. but it had no effect on the ongoing violence. the u.s. army sadly reports that 32 suicide ors potential suicides in july. that's the highest level since the u.s. began releasing the numbers 2 1/2 years ago. a document obtained by cnn shows the army has counted 163 suicides this year. in california bay area rapid transit officials are warning passengers a demonstration this evening could create problems in san francisco's civic center station. people are upset because all cell phone service at the station was shut down thursday to head off a protest against police violence. officials indicate they could do it again. still ahead here, dramatic changes in the race for the republican presidential nomination. but next indiana's governor, his wife and daughter were right there at the indiana state fair when a concert stage collapsed. tinted moisturizers t with scientifically proven soy complex and natural minerals. give you sheer coverage instantly,

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the indiana state fair reopened today with a memorial service for victims of saturday's freak accident. five people died when a wind gust of perhaps 70 miles an hour caused a concert stage to collapse. at the memorial governor mitch daniels praised the onlookers who rushed in to help declaring there was a hero every ten feet. he said as much sunday. >> the character that we associate with our state, people don't have to be paid to do it. so i want to say thanks to each of them. and i know that those who were rescued and those who would have been more seriously hurt without

their help are profoundly grateful today. and i am on their behalf. so we will now share with you what we know that beyond what's been reported so far today, and then to follow him cindy with our current thoughts about what happens next at america's greatest state fair. >> the twisted steel of what used to be the stage is still piled at the fairgrounds. investigators are looking into whether the stage was set up correctly. families of the victims want to know if the concert should have been called off iks because officials knew bad weather was coming. >> there was a great deal of lack of communication going on. at the spur of the moment it came in so quickly that nobody was really able to act and get the orders put out that needed to be put out. >> cnn meteorologist chad myers is with us at the cnn weather center. chad, how rare to see a storm that can come along. they build these things, these stages, to see a storm come out

and take that out with such devastation. >> i cannot remember one year ever where three stages have collapsed and literally within a month. i don't know if you remember this, cheap trick had a stage collapse on them up in ottawa, canada. winds came through and knocked the entire stage down. back in oklahoma, in tulsa, there was a stage that fell down. this was the big one. obviously, this was the one where people were seriously injured. it happens because you put state fairs right in the middle of towns and in states that now are in severe weather season. in basically tornado alley or at least northern tornado alley. what do we have coming up, illinois, minnesota, iowa. we just got done with ohio, that's a very popular fair there. these midwest fairs, they put things up quickly, including the rides, they bring things down quickly and put them away for a year. here's what happened with this

storm. i'm going to go to the tick tock, the timetable. the storm came through. the buildings, the collapse happened at ten minutes to 9:00. but there wasn't a storm on radar within five miles. the storm was well to the west back out here. this purple dot right there, the fairgrounds. you say how could that possibly happen? how could the storm still be ten miles away and the wind be so strong? it's something called a gust front. and if you're ever outside and a thunderstorm's coming, you hear it, you see it, but the wind blows first, all the air rushes down the thunderstorm with the rain. it hits the ground. just like a bucket of water, if you pour a bucket of water on the ground, the water has to go out. it can't go down any more because the ground is in the way. the air goes out, too, and when the air goes out, it's called a gust front. in this case, that 70-mile-per-hour wind was five to ten miles ahead of where the radar showed the storm to be.

that was the significance and that could have been the problem. the warning went out at 39 minutes after. they were cleared. the people were told to get out of the way at 45. but the stage collapsed only four minutes later. >> chad myers laying out how the tragedy happened for us. chad, appreciate it. for the latest on the investigation, i'm joined by the governor of indiana, mitch daniels. appreciate your time. on a day like this. i'm just wondering if you've come to the conclusion that people should have warned people earlier, get out of here, we've had a severe weather warning, you've got to go? >> i haven't come to any conclusion at all. it will probably be a while before we do. you're correct that a proper and appropriate inquiry has already begun both into the structure that was used and into the decisionmaking, but honestly, that's not our first concern right now. out here our first instinct is to look after those who have

been lost or wounded and to make necessary repairs and get on with life. that's what we spent most of today doing. >> i understand that. obviously people want to move forward and the fair has reopened. but this is fair season. and we see fairs all around the country, especially in your part of the country, and in this case, you know, the weather service had forecast two hours beforehand, winds of up to 60 to 70 miles per hour. don't you think if you were there and you found out two hours beforehand winds up to 70-mile-an-hour might be coming, you would have said, we can't have an outdoor concert like this? >> not certain about that. the track of a storm is always subject to change. the storm itself didn't arrive at the fairgrounds for 15 or 20 minutes after the tragedy happened. these winds were somehow very far out ahead of it. apparently, according to weather service people that i asked these questions to, must have interacted in some way with the nearby architecture. just there was no other damage on the fairgrounds anywhere.

we had a midway with ferris wheels operating just a couple hundred yards away. and they weren't touched. so you know, these are the right questions. they're going to be asked and followed up on, but again, you know, our first instinct here in times of trouble is not to point fingers but rather to try to make things right and get back -- get back to normal if we can. >> have the engineers or anybody said anything to you about why they think that happened? is it just a freakish, horrible coincidence that that's where the worst winds were or it is something in the design of the stage or the set? >> very clear that the wind that did this damage, as i just illustrated, was very highly localized, possibly being channeled in some fashion by the buildings as they -- in the position they sat relative to the wind direction. and as to the structure itself, we'll see, but that very

structure has been used for decades at our fair and many others without this problem. so we'll see what we can learn, and always, always seek from any such problem, flood, tornado or something like this, to make improvements going forward. >> your wife and one of your daughters were there right at that site. they left a little before this happened. what have they told you about their memories of the weather when they were there and did they just leave for schedule or coincidence, were they just lucky, sir? >> in the case of my wife, like many others when the suggestion was made to move to one of the three buildings which the fair opened up to accommodate the crowd, she was in the process of leaving and didn't see the actual event, could just hear it from the street where she had gone. my daughter was actually quite close to it. she was taking a lot of photographs and was near the stage, a little too close for comfort, but she's fine.

and -- she's a little shook up, has memories of it. but the daniels women are like most hoosiers, pretty resilient and they're doing all right. >> what goes through your mind, sir, when you watch the video. i've seen it several times. it is on television almost nonstop. it shows you the -- aus opening is the wrong word because of the horror. it shows you in the aftermath a lot of heroes trying to save people. >> those are exactly the two impressions that i'll always have. in this job, i've come to respect mother nature in all her -- i'll say awesome power, whether it's water, wind, lightning. i've seen really far too much of the damage that can occur. but yes, the powerful memory of this will be both the visual impression of seeing hundreds of people rushing to the trouble as opposed to away from it, and the

eyewitness accounts i heard from so many of our state troopers and other security personnel at the fairgrounds, the professionals by every report we have, responded as they prepared to instantly in a highly effective way. but every one of them, it seemed, had stories about citizens whose names we'll never know who simply showed up and helped them extricate people more quickly. probably saved many from more severe injury. >> governor mitch daniels. a conversation a bit earlier today. our thoughts and prayers with the people of indiana tonight. in a minute we'll switch our focus back to the 2012 presidential campaign. watch here. can you guess just who is bill clinton talking about? >> he's a good looking rascal. he said, i'm going to washington to make sure that the federal government stays as far away from you as possible.

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for medicare made clear, we're here to answer all of your questions. call unitedhealthcare medicare solutions. the republican field has as many candidates now as when the sun rose sunday morning. but it's a different nield. the straw poll underachiever. rick perry is now officially in, and aggressively so. >> that big black cloud that hangs over america, that debt that is so monstrous. >> so let's stack the gop field with cnn contributors erick

erickson and alex castellanos. you have congresswoman bachmann who took the day off today. a lot of people saying this is a three-way race. is that fair or is it way too soon to narrow it down that much? >> i don't think it's a three-way race yet. it's a two way race, romney and governor perry. we're not sure that michele bachmann is yet a top tier candidate. she's got something to prove. she can win it inside a coliseum in iowa, can she show suburban voters in ohio that she can be a general election candidate. >> erick, you made this in your bullet points, you contribute to our blog every day. and michele bachmann won the straw poll, but she may wish she had not. it is the single-greatest predictor of who will not win the iowa caucus let alone the nomination. strong support among conservative christians and the tea party, you seem to think that maybe there's a ceiling there.

>> there may be. it's going to be interesting how she can perform in other states. we know that she can perform well in iowa. the problem is that in the last 30 years only three people have won the ames straw poll and then gone on to win the iowa caucus. of those only two became the republican nominee. it seems to me that candidates need to start questioning ames. they're spending 2 million, $3 million to be successful in the straw poll that almost ensures they're not going to be the caucus winner or the nominee. >> success brings you critics. a lot of democrats are criticizing congresswoman's bachmann's record but so is "the wall street journal." if you're a republican, this is a big ouch. americans are already living with the consequences of electing a president who sounded good but had achieved little as a legislator and had no executive experience. mrs. bachmann will have persuade voters she isn't the conservative version of mr. obama. >> her problems are more serious than that. republicans think that losing

this election would be like losing the country. we're not going to nominate someone who can't actually assemble a winning coalition and get those independents. she can go to the right like she did, that's how she beat pawlenty, but if she does that to rick perry, she'll narrow herself even more. so she can be pat buchanan or ronald reagan, but right now her instincts seem to be pat buchanan. >> the question then is if you view in the current field tore current state of the field romney and perry, current governor of texas, former governor of massachusetts as the have to strongest candidates, eric erickson you introduced him on saturday, he announced he's running for president. he's caught the attention of a guy who knows something about running and winning the presidency. listen here. >> what i would say is go take a look at his record when he was governor and look at my record when i'm governor. then you got some apples to apples. >> i wish rick the very best. as the process goes on, we'll see whose background and skill

most fits the need and the needs of the country at a critical time like this. >> hold on. remember that for a second. that was not what i wanted to hear. that was perry and romney essentially saying i'm a better job creator. we'll come back to that. but governor perry also caught the attention of a guy who has a history of winning the presidency, listen here. >> he's a good looking rascal. he said, you know, i'm going to washington to make sure that the federal government stays as far away from you as possible. while i ride on air force one in that marine one helicopter and go to camp david and travel around the world and have a good time. >> former governor, former president clinton trying to make the point there, erick that he's a handsome rascal. whether he's qualified to say that or not we'll leave it here. but to say i'll get washington out of your life, then love the trappings of the presidency, camp david, air force one. fair game?

>> well, you know, there's kind of a strong man argument there. you can fly on air force one while also scaling back the size of the federal government, which is what rick perry wants to do. whether it's bachman or perry or romney, all three of whom i find to be very good candidates, i think they'll all do that. but perry does have the record in texas that a lot of conservatives are excited about. he's scaled back the size and scope of the texas government. a lot of people know he means business. >> so to the point, we heard the two governors, essentially. governor romny saying, i was a one-term governor. he says he didn't raise taxes in massachusetts, but really look at my private sector experience. governor perry says i was in the private sector after the air force, but i've been governor for ten years now. in the number one job creating state in america. how do you see this particular clash playing out between two formidable guys who can raise a lot of money and in governor romney's case has a base that he's built and in perry's case, that he's building.

>> slight advantage to romney. republicans tend to think that governors and government don't create jobs, businessmen do. he can say we don't create jobs but we create the environment in which people can do that. who is close to the republican base? in his announcement the other day, perry was very reaganesque. he really went to core republican principles. he's closer there than romney is. he demonstrated a lot of strength. there's questions about romney's strength and flip flopping on issues. romney's got a tough challenge on his hands with rick perry. >> you've been very complimentary of governor perry by saying you're not picking a candidate yet. you were right there watching this play out. alex gave a pretty good synopsis of the speech. it was very good, very energetic. let me ask you the contrarian question, for all the good thing us said about him and his people and how they put on an event, did you come away with a question, that i need to see this next?

>> the one thing that a lot of people said, is if you close your eyes, he sounds like george w. bush. if that's still an issue for voters in 2012, will it be a draw on him? it may be. i do think he can overcome it. for rallying the conserative base, if you believe in dog whistles and politics, there was one that stood out in my mind. he paraphrased reagan and lincoln. a lot of candidates will cite those and quote them. the two that he actually quoted were margaret thatcher and calvin coolidge. for conservatives who hear reagan quoted all the time, there were people that paid attention to that and the number one word no one paid attention to in his speech. farmer. people liked that he played up being a farmer. >> calvin coolidge is back. only in america. >> that's the big challenge for perry. is he electable or is he an he echo of the election we lost last time. george bush is really the guy

barack obama beat. if barack obama continues to fall like this in the polls, if perry does start to move up and demonstrates electability, this is a tough two-man race. >> we'll see how this one plays out, alex. >> jobs ksz jobs, jobs. we'll see how it plays out. fascinating day today. we'll flip the page when we come back. a huge drop in his support among white voters. next, two key voices from obama 2008, tell us the president's bus tour everyone other recent steps teach us about 2012. [ woman ] welcome back, jogging stroller.

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listening to the president campaign these days is a familiar ring. he blames a lot of the country's problems on washington's partisan gridlock. >> you've got to send a message to washington that it's time for the games to stop. it's time to put country first. >> but can a guy with the most powerful job in washington turn anti-washington sentiment into political advantage? two obama 2008 veterans are with us, steve, i want to go out to you first. the president is in the midwest. i want to walk over to the map. this one strikes me. watching where he is campaigning today, we talked about this on the program a couple of weeks ago. minnesota, iowa, illinois. he is in these rural areas of the country. it's largely white america, small town america. and the president campaigns all

blue states last time, illinois is his home state. probably keep this one blue. these ones you would probably have to be a little questionable, especially iowa has been a swing state. 2008 he splits the white vote. 2011 a new pugh center study shows 52% to 39% for the republicans. that what this bus tour is about? trying to reconnect with white voters in small-town rural america? >> well, first off, john, he is not out there campaigning. he is out there as president. this is an official trip. i think it's important that he is out of washington. he'll be a better president the more time he spends outside of that city. i think it's great that he is out talking to people out here in the heartland, out here in the rural midwest. >> no disrespect. i understand he is the president of the united states and this is a listening tour. i'll let the republicans argue about who should pay for it or where the money should come from. but he is in minnesota, iowa,

and illinois, in areas, maybe he is not officially campaigning. but if he is not campaign, i'm not standing. >> but he isn't campaigning. he's out there talking to the american public and list nirng, connecting. it's what the voters want. when you look at 2008 to 2011, there's a big swing in independent voters. last time in a state like iowa we won 56% of the independent vote there. and that is where you're going to see that swing. and i don't run away from race, but i'm not even couching this in a racial terms about white vote. this is about where the independent voters have been shifting dramatically over the last couple of elections. >> so independent voters want washington to work. they want this place to not be a day-care center. it's not a partisan feeling. they feel everyone is to blame. listen to the president in iowa talking about how he'll have a specific jobs program soon. he'll submit it to the congress, and we look forward to the details. and then he says if the congress says no, he'll do this. >> i'll be putting forward when they come back in september a very specific plan to boost the

economy, to create jobs, and to control our deficit. and my attitude is get it done. and if they don't get it done, then we'll be running against a congress that is not doing anything for the american people. and the choice will be very stark and will be very clear. >> steve hildebrand, i talked to jim clyburn, the congressman from south carolina earlier in the program. he would love that message, except he would like the president to say the republican congress. can the president of the united states, a guy who promised to change washington, are we in a situation where he could run an anti-washington -- i assume by the campaign it would be anti-republican congress? >> well, john, i think it's really important that the president states reality, which is washington is broken. he shares in the blame. he takes some of that blame. but he is the one who is willing to work with congress to get things done. congress, both democrats and republicans, share in a lot of the blame.

but the tea party is more to blame than anybody else in terms of this stalemate that we have seen in washington over the last several months. >> so that's a message aimed at independents there. i'm going to propose legislation. we'll try to work it out. another thing you see in the polling, and you saw the president in this -- especially this iowa stop, a nurse gets up and said why didn't you fight for single payer health care? why do you always seem to negotiate things away? why don't you plant the flag and fight? should obama be the democratic nominee. this is democrats only. 70% say yes now. in july it was 77%. in june it was 81%. now it's 70%. i'm not saying democrats are going to rush out and challenge president obama. i'm not saying he won't be the nominee easily. but if you have 30% of democrats, that's a frustration. that's voicing their frustration with him. in a competitive presidential election, in a state like iowa, if half of a percent of liberals stay home, does he have to be worried about at the same time he is trying to appeal to independents, fixing a problem with the base? >> a couple of things, i don't

think he has a problem with the base. if you look at his fundraising numbers from the grassroots of the base of the party, how they energized and given him to him, i don't think he has a problem with that. >> so where does that number come from? >> in the end, when you look at what the tea party is doing, whether it be rick perry or michele bachmann, i don't think romney is going to be it, the base has plenty to be energized about it. it's also part of who he is. this ideal that you know what? washington has been broken for a long time people have just been fighting. so how to fix washington? i'm going to try to reach across the aisle and work with these people and try to bring them along instead of just standing and fighting. it will be easy for the president to say i'm going to dig in and just fight, fight, fight. but that's not how you move this country forward. >> cornell belcher, steve hildebrand. steve, good to have you back. we'll see you again as the day. a lot of contrast. hope to see you back here tomorrow. piers morgan tonight starts right now.