>> [ bleep ] you, you [ bleep ] sucker. that's my name, [ bleep ] you, you [ bleep ] sucker. >> reporter: when we called the union? >> hi, there. i'm trying to reach mr. f-you-sleep-suck e er f-you-sleep-sucker. >> yeah, he's not available. >> reporter: jeanne moos, cnn, new york. >> all right, jeanne, thanks very much. this note, i'll be back in one hour. i'll be moderating the first ever cnn tea party republican debate coming up 8:00 p.m. eastern for our viewers here in the united states and around the wor world. for our international viewers, world report is coming up next. for all our viewers in the united states, john king is coming up. we've got a big debate in one hour. >> as you noted, the first cnn tea party republican presidential debate. my friend, wolf blitzer, is going to head inside.

a quick handshake, good luck, as you would say, be strong. it's a very important night, a consequential night for the country. let's show you that live picture inside the haul. eight republicans for president engaging in this debate. in recent days, a crackling debate about the 2012 presidential campaign. not only, and you'll hear it all night long, taking aim at president obama and his agenda, but we have playing out a fierce and an increasingly intense battle for the leadership, the heart and soul, the policy agenda and the philosophical approach of the republican party. watch these eight candidates tonight. we know the texas governor rick perry has emerged quickly as the front-runner. the massachusetts governor, the former governor of massachusetts, mitt romney, his lead challenger, number two. and then there's a break between the other candidates. if there is one other candidate who perhaps has the most to prove tonight, it is the minnesota congresswoman, michele bachmann. the tea party favorite herself, someone who rose in the polls after a cnn debate back in june, but she has struggled as of late, as she has stumbled in the

polls, with mostly in part because of the entrance of governor perry. a 90-minute debate. wolf blitzer will moderate it inside. social security is a big issue, taxes is a big issue. it will be interesting to see if more national security issues come up, given the day we have this debate. just after the country paused to remember and reflect ten years since the september 11th, 2001, attacks. let's set the stage and stakes tonight with two people who are following this race closely and perhaps have a little different perspective of what the republican party needs in its leadership at this urgent moment for the party and for the country. our cnn political contributor and consultant alex castellanos is with us, and also billy tucker. billy, since this is a tea party debate, the tea party shot like a rocket on to the scene in 2010. hugely helpful, if not usually responsible for the republicans taking back the congress. when you look at these eight candidates tonight, and you're looking for a leader, for the republican party, an embrace of the tea party movement, what is

your defining question? >> my defining question is, how are they going to lead? we want to know how they're going to govern and we want to know if they are going to be strong leaders. we need a courageous leader right now. >> a courageous leader right now. and you say that in the context of debating president obama or do you say that in the context of your disappointments with the last republican president, especially at the end, george w. bush? >> we say that based on the fact that we need a courageous leader. the tea party is looking for courageous leaders to do the right things. that means in the white house and congress and in the senate. so it's really important that leadership shows up tonight. >> alex castellanos, i want to set the stage for our viewers, just looking at our latest poll, and as we go through these poll numbers, first, let me pause, that's the former utah governor, governor huntsman and his wife, arriving here tonight. governor huntsman has had a hard time breaking through. he says civility and a polite tone should be important in this campaign. he was a few months ago the

public gas tor to china. as you watch him enter his trailer with an hour to prepare for this debate here, one of the key issues he'll stress tonight, we are told, is when he was the governor of utah, it was creating jobs. we're also told governor huntsman will join the fight tonight in contrasting governor perry's views on social security with others' views. let's get back to where we stand. right now the republicans' kh choice for a nominee, without sarah palin in the race, perry, 32%, romney, 21%, ron paul, 13%, michele bachmann down at 7, gingrich at 7, herman cain, john huntsman, and rick santorum further down in the race. the crackling debate in recent days has been about social security. and governor perry is trying to clarify, the polite term i'll use, he wrote an op-ed in "usa today" where he used the term "ponzi scheme" in a debate last week with about the finances of social security. he wrote today, "for too long politicians have been afraid to speak honestly about social security. we must have the guts to talk

about its financial condition if we are to fix social security and make it financially viable for generations to come." how important is it that he get this right? recalibrate the wording and the message to audiences? number one, the republican primary electorate. number two, if he's the nominee, he's got to sell it in the general. >> well, john, it's important enough that he wrote an editorial in "usa today." it's big time. you launch your campaign, you don't want the missile to hit grandma's house. and that's a little bit what perry did. it clouded his coming out party. it hasn't hurt him. i mean, he's shot to 30% in the polls. he's going to do what every republican on that stage does. assume the position that, yes, social security is a ponzi scheme, but i'm the only guy you can trust to tell the truth about, and therefore, the only guy you can trust to fix it. he'll say that tonight. >> but here's the question, he says in "usa today," and you can expect him to say it passionately tonight, we need to fix it, make it financially viable for generations to come. that's what he says now.

if you read his book, these are his words, if you read his book "fed up," he's talking about social security and he says about it, "and there stands a crumbling monument to the failure of the new deal. in stark contrast to the mythical notion of salvation to which it has wrongly been attached for too long, at the expense of respect for the constitution and limited government." he is on the record in his own book of saying the founding fathers never would have done this. social security, perhaps, is unconstitutional. you're nodding your head. we were at lunch today with 100 or so tea party members in the room. they agree with that. >> that's right. >> so here's the challenge. if he says that, if he says that, you want him to say that, don't you? >> we do want him to say that. that's courageous, isn't it? >> if he wins the state of florida in a general election, if he said, if he said, if i were there, i wouldn't have voted for it, that's different from saying, i think it should be abolished. >> it needs to be reformed. it's here now. it's just like everything else that happens when government gets involved in policies they shouldn't be involved in, like

obama care. this is the same thing. we're all talks about obama care, obama care. 20 years from now, we're going to say, why did we do that? this is a mess. it's broken. this is the exact same thing. >> you're a guy who cuts ads. if governor perry is the nominee of the republican party, and one of the reasons people in our poll, republican voters have elevated him is they believe he is the most electable candidate. they believe he is the strongest candidate to go up against president obama, as a consultant. if you were cutting ads for the democrats, not republicans, does that quote, is that quote potentially a disqualifying, good-bye, florida, good-bye, pennsylvania, good-bye, iowa, good-bye, arizona, good-bye states with significant senior populations? >> if rick perry is the nominee, you can count on seeing that quote in an ad. and the other night in a debate, when he came out of the box, rick perry implied if he could go back 70 years and undo it, he would. those are the issues he's going to have to deal with. and what it does is it takes a spotlight off of the big advantage republicans have running against barack obama,

which is the economy and jobs and fixing washington. obama's made washington bigger. their economy work. he hasn't made yours work. and we need to be talking about that as republicans, not social security. >> right. >> i think a candidate, obviously, perry and romney are the top tier at the moment. a candidate with a lot at stake tonight is congresswoman michele bachmann, who came out of the cnn debate in new hampshire in june with a lot of momentum. she has struggled of late. look at this just over the months. back in may, she was at 9% among registered republicans. august, a little bit later, 12%. she was shooting up right there. now she's back down to 7%. she is a favorite of a lot of tea party people. her numbers are going down, why? she's made mistakes in the debate, but as she debates more, people are saying, maybe she isn't a president. >> she hasn't made mistakes. she's been who michele bachmann is. i think it's because we have new people in the race and it's changing the dynamics a little bit. but michelle's been has been

michelle. so she hasn't changed at all. we'll see what happens. i don't think that they're all here. >> rick perry upoccupies the sa space with tea party voters as michele bachmann does, but he's a successful governor in a large state with more stature and credibility. so he's just taken the wind out of her sails. she's going to knock rick perry out tonight. all these candidates are going to nip at his heels. but it will take a month or two to vet rick perry. these candidates have to look not so short-term tonight. they have to present a candidate tonight who could be president of the united states. they need to show somebody that they could sit in that big chair in the oval office and actually lead the free world. so they've got to be careful about getting too small tonight. >> is this the feel, these eight candidates tonight, we're going to talk a lot more in the hour ahead about the policy clashes and the like. is this the field? these eight candidates at this luncheon today when i was asking the tea party voters what they think about the field win heard a few sarah runs in the back of the room. do you think where you have the field right now and we're picking from these eight or are we going to get somebody else,

possibly governor palin? >> i think the field's here, you know. i would be surprised if sarah did win -- i mean, did run. but there are still a lot of tea party people out there that think she will, so -- >> i can't imagine that the field's going to change. i think sarah palin loves her country, wants to defeat this president. i think she understands, like a lot of republicans do, she may not be the best candidate to do it. but we've seen the world turn on a dime in a day, so who knows? >> alex and billie, appreciate your insights. the cnn tea party republican presidential debate now less than an hour away. in the hour beforehand, though, we'll have an exclusive conversation with the vice president, joe biden, just moments away, his thoughts on the republican race and the republican field. and up next, another exclusive conversation with that man, the louisiana governor bobby jindal. just today, he announced his endorsement of this race. where does governor jindal see the republican party going, that's next. [ male announcer ] this is the network.

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to help improve braking performance. we don't just make luxury cars. we make cadillacs. we're live tonight at the florida state fairgrounds in tampa, we're about 45 minutes away from a cnn tea party republican presidential debate. eight candidates will be on that stage, you see it live right there, making their case, that they are the best choice to lead

the republican party in the 2012 campaign against democratic president barack obama. one governor we thought might be a candidate, then he decided, no, he would stay in his state is the louisiana governor, bobby jindal. to you, governor, welcome, you decided rick perry, your neighboring governor, you believe among those eight candidates we're going to the see tonight, he's the best nominee and the best president, why? >> that's exactly right. thank you for having me. you look at the record of what he's done in texas. this election, i believe, is about the jobs, about the economy. we've got a president, we've got president obama who believes we're going to tax, borrow, spend our way into prosperity. rick perry understands, he has held that line on taxes, he has cut regulations. texas in the last few years has been responsible for almost half of the new jobs created in america. you've seen under governor perry's leadership, they've cut spending. first governor in decades to actually cut general revenue spending in texas. he understands, we can't borrow away -- he understands the seriousness of the $14 trillion debt. one fundamental lesson that apparently president obama hasn't learned is that

government doesn't create jobs. when government spends money, it costs taxpayers money. governor rick perry understands that the when private sector creates jobs, that's good for the american taxpayers. >> you understand social security, often considered the third rail of american politics. you watched the debate play out in recent days. you just heard the conversation we had in the last segment about this. is governor perry vulnerable, especially to a general election audience for having the view that in his social security is essentially unconstitutional. it shouldn't be there. >> look, it will be demagogued, it will be attacked, but let's be clear. look at social security today. certainly, when you look at it last year, for the first time since the early 1980s, they paid more than they took out. by the time i reach retirement age, the trust fund will be gone. young people are more likely to believe in ufos than that social security would be there for him. let's protect it for those that are retiring or about to retire, but let's fix it for the younger generations. anytime anybody has the courage to say this, they're going to get attacked.

the safe thing to do would be to duck and avoid it. he hasn't done that, he's showed real leadership. he wants to deliver real jobs for americans. that's why i think he's the best candidate to be president. voters want candidates that are going to be honest with them, leaders that are going to tell themse them the truth, not just hearing what we want to hear. i applaud him for having the courage to lead and be honest. if we don't make serious changes, social security will not be there for our children and grandchildren. >> he has skyrocketed to the top of the american field. this is his second debate. you know you can get an early lead in a race and watch it go away. the woman who was making a lot of strides in the race who has stole some in part because of governor perry's entrance is the minnesota congresswoman, michele bachma bachmann. i was asking her last week if she was worried, if she thought she was going to spurt ntter no that governor perry had taken a lot of her momentum. listen to this. >> don't forget in the last election cycle, fred thompson jumped in late in the race. he was polling at about 31%. rudy giuliani jumped in late.

he was polling at about 35%. this isn't unusual. campaigns aren't settled just in a day. this is a marathon and we're very pleased. and by the way, with our campaign, our campaign is doing very well. >> that's a fair historical point, if you look at the -- if we go back and look here, september 2007, rudy giuliani leading the republican field with 28%. fred thompson, 27%. john mccain, the ultimate nominee, in third place at that time. might she have a point? might governor perry be a flash in the pan? >> if you go back, everyone thought senator clinton was the odds-on nominee. perry has been governor for nearly 11 years of texas. during that time, you've seen per capita income has increased from last year to this year. at a time the president's offering as talk and promises, rick perry is creating jobs. for me, it's not about polls. he's not the kind of guy that sticks his finger out in the

wind and sees which ways the polls are going. we elected a leadership, president obama, that gives great speeches. clearly has been overwhelmed by these economic challenges. in rick perry, a man with executive experience, been governor of a very large state with a very complex economy. has done a great job to create jobs, cut the regulations creating jobs. i think he's got lasting power not because of the polls or because of the temporary attention, but because of his track record and executive experience, that's what the american people are looking for. >> let's step back a bit. as a governor, as someone who has served in congress, a divided government, republican house of representatives, this campaign starting to gin up and get some momentum. you were here in this very town back in august. the national republican committee's summer meeting, and you were making a point, essentially trying to, shall i say, have some in your party grow some backbone. listen to your view on whether people should stand their ground or compromise.

>> one of the things i have found in government, and it's just the opposite -- i know this will shock you, but it is the opposite of what the news media wants you to believe, but it is this. it pays to be stubborn. nothing, if you want to be popular with the editorial boards, nothing will make you as popular with the intelligenceya in america as compromise. we are told over and over, that's what adults do. i have found that in government, it pays to be stubborn, it pays to stick to your guns. >> pays to stick to your guns, you say. so should the house now, the republican house, stick to its guns and say no when president obama wants new infrastructure spending, for example, as part of this jobs plan. new aid to states like yours so you can keep police, firefighters, and teachers on the payrolls? should they say no? >> two things, first, the tax and spending didn't work. i think speaker boehner has said the right thing. i think the bill came over today. he said, we'll look at it piece by piece. it's not going to be all or

nothing. there may be some good ideas in there. we'll take those and add our own good ideas. he asked the president and the white house to respectfully consider our ideas as well. that's what they're supposed to do. it shouldn't be an up or down vote or be all or nothing. they should take it piece by piece, do the analysis. but should they reject stimulus part two? absolutely. what i was saying there in that speech, what i was telling my fellow republicans was, it absolutely pays, and we should take a principled stand. when it comes to this debt ceiling debate, this is not the debt ceiling, it is the debt. 49 states are required to balance their budget. i also said this. we're not -- we as republicans, we shouldn't hate the president. we shouldn't question where he's from. we should question where he's going. we can have a respectful debate, respect the office of the presidency while being consistent with our principles and avoid those -- >> help me define stimulus two. i asked you specifically about infrastructure and the aid to states to keep people on the payroll. >> i think there's bipartisan support for faa bill. there are a lot of bipartisan things that you can do. we can have bipartisan support

for the free trade treaties. i think there's bipartisan support now. the president belatedly is now starting to roll back some of these epa regular litigationtre. i think we had predictable tilin taxes coming out of washington. we must not make the mistake of thinking government is going to create jobs and secure this economy. the reality is, the more the government spends, that's not free. we have to pay that back. if all we get is more temporary government spending and more higher taxes, that's going to slow down the economy. there are areas we can agree to work on a bipartisan basis, but what we cannot do is simply repeat the stimulus bill. we were supposed to keep unemployment below 8%, create millions of jobs, it hasn't worked. there's no reason to believe that simply doing the same thing again will create different results. >> thanks for coming in. we'll see you as the campaign unfolds. up next, another exclusive conversation. this one, another perspective. the different perspective. vice president joe biden on

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live pictures here of the debate hall in tampa, florida. the tea party, cnn tea party republican debate about 35 minutes away. eight candidates for the republican nomination will be debating in that hall. our wolf blitzer will be the moderator. stay with us. an important night in republican and american politics.

first, let's check in on other headlines, news you need to know right now. moammar gadhafi's son, saadi confirms that he has crossed the border and is now in niger. he says he is on an humanitarian mission. a statement from colonel gadhafi himself says, "we cannot surrender libya to imperialism, so we have no option but to kill until victory and to destroy this attempted overthrow." the middle east's first civilian nuclear power plant officially opened for business today. it's in iran. and if you thought you'd never see bipartisanship in washington again, take a look. ♪ god bless america ♪ land that i love ♪ stand beside her ♪ and guide her >> less than an hour ago on the steps of the capitol, democrats and republicans, members of the house and the senate, gathering to sing "god bless america," that to observe the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. when we come back, an

exclusive conversation with vice president joe biden. his thoughts on this republican presidential field gearing up for 2012, and a recent suggestion that perhaps the strongest candidate for president isn't named obama or biden. [ male announcer ] members of the american postal workers union

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live pictures here. that is the debate stage. here in tampa, florida, the cnn and the tea party tonight sponsoring a republican debate between eight republican

candidates for president. the republicans trying to decide who will leave their party into the campaign against president obama and vice president joe biden in 2012. so the republicans in center stage tonight. but over the weekend, i had a chance to sit down exclusively with the democratic vice president, joe biden. we talked about the current terror threat facing the country, the 9/11 anniversary, and we begin here, his response from criticism from the man who last held his job, the former president dick cheney. mr. cheney making the case that the obama administration has two unfairly restricted its options in fighting terrorism. >> one of the debates in that chapter will be enhanced interrogation tactics and waterboarding. your predecessor, the former vice president, talking in the context of this specific threat we're using today, he says, if you're still using those tactics, maybe there would be a date when you get this detainee out of pakistan, you scrub that

detainee and maybe you have more information. >> john, no. i've been engaged in this for 46 years, a member of the intelligence committee, vice president of the united states involved in this issue. i've seen zero evidence it works and think there's abundant evidence it hurts us internationally and hurts our security by making a mockery of who we say we are and giving rationale for those who want to do us harm, to recruit people. so i would argue the opposite. >> let me shift politics for a few moments. that season is heating up, perhaps earlier than many people at home might hope, but it is heating up. can i call you joe? >> sure you can. >> i say it as a joke, because the woman who with used that line, governor palin, has been in iowa, has been in new hampshire, and i'm assume you're one who has maybe interested her more than most as you watch. is she going to run? >> i have no idea, john. look, i have -- as the president has said in his jobs speech, he said, you know, the election's

14 months away. there are going to be some crazy things you're going to hear between now and then and it's going to be a tough campaign. but the american people can't wait 14 months. i mean, they're hurting right now. so i'm not trying to avoid your question. i simply don't have any idea what that field is going to turn out to be and who's going to be the nominees. >> but they're up and running. they've had three debates so far, we've got another big one coming up. i know you're a political junkie in addition to being the vice president and former senator. how close? are you paying attention? are you watching? >> i watch part, and i'm not being smart, i was able to catch the second half of the last debate, which seemed to be, you know, about perry and the former governor of massachusetts, but i think this is going to go through iterations here. but i've no idea where it's going to land. >> in one of their debates, governor perry says, if you look at the statistics come 2036, social security is pairing out more than it's taking in.

therefore he says it can't keep its promises, so it's a ponzi scheme. is social security a ponzi scheme? >> no, it's not a ponzi scheme. he should go back and see who ponzi was, he was an individual, it's a different deal. no, it's not a ponzi scheme. it is secure through 2036 and to fix it is not hard. >> if to fix it is not hard, candidate senator joe biden, the vice presidential nominee in 2008 said elect barack obama, he will put the security back in social security. >> yep. >> nothing has been done. nothing has been done. and some could argue that the payroll tax with the best of intentions, to stimulate the economy, has actually between more money out of social security, could they not? >> well, relatively speaking to the social security needs, it's de minimis, what it's taken out of the social security trust fund. but we were in a position where we thought there for a while, we had parties, republican leadership, who were prepared to deal with us in fixing social security and actually making some significant positive changes in the second and third

decade out there on other entitlements as well as rationalizing the tax code. but it didn't turn out that way. but i'm hoping now after going through the brinksmanship, which caused us to be downgraded and started a new little spiral that our republican leadership will be more inclined to come up with -- >> you mean as part of these negotiations with the super committee and the deficit reduction debate that will continue in that committee and then perhaps longer than that an model for that has been, it seems, the vice president, the guy with 36 years experience on capitol hill negotiating. you were here today with speaker boehner, someone you get along with. at the president's speech, you were joking with senator boehner. in the lame-duck session, you were key to the negotiations. there are some, even democrats who say, look at that. that works. why didn't we do that early in the first term and would we not have gone through the political price you've paid for health care and the stimulus if it had been done differently? >> well, you know, in the first

term, we came in and we were hemorrhaging 800,000 jobs a month. it was a triage. it was just trying to figure out how to stop the building. >> so why health care first? you were among those arguing to make sure we got the sequencing right, weren't you? >> because health care was a way in which to negatively -- or positively impact by reducing the negative impact of the deficit long-term. it reduces the deficit by $1 trillion over the first dish mean, $100 billion over the first ten years. so it was both needed, it was consistent, it was a means by which you could also eventually begin to make the positive changes in medicare that were needed, so there'd be a safety net there. but, look. where we are now is that i did speak, i did in this last go-round, i was asked to spend a lot of time with eric cantor and john boehner. we were able to finally pull out 1 trillion in cuts and a means by which we get another $1.5

trillion plus. and i think the mood has changed. and i think that -- i'm of the view that john and eric were more inclined to agree on a more balanced package and get a bigger number, but they got resistance. but i think maybe now that folks have been home and they've seen the consequences of not cooperating more, that we're going to have a positive outcome to this. >> let me circle back as we close. we're in the state of pennsylvania, your home state. you're going to be here a lot, i suspect. in the next year, it will be one of the battlegrounds, your old friend the democratic pollster, peter heart says based on the current statistics, for the first time this week, president obama and vice president biden are no longer the favorites. if you look at the economic data and look at through history, pretty hard to see winning re-election. what's that to your strategy? >> i, listen, with interest to what he said, he went on to say the same thing about bush and the same thing about clinton and they both won re-election. look, we know this is hard

because we know people are hurting and they're looking for answer. 51% or so of the american people blame the dilemma on the last administration, but they say that's irrelevant, now fix it. now fix it. and part of fixing it is actually getting the other team to actually work with us and come up with, you know, a common cause. and as i said, i am -- maybe it's because i've been there a long time, i've been there before. and i think people have been chastened by the failure to work together. i don't think no's an answer anymore. and they've figured out no's not an answer. >> you've been at this a long time. do you have a private prediction you're willing to share here on what the ticket will be? the other guys? >> honest to god, john, i have to idea. i would be -- that's beyond my -- that's above my pay grade. >> i asked you a policy question about the former vice president. he also thinks that hillary clinton would be the strongest democratic candidate. what do you think about that? >> well, she's a great person and she's a strong person, but, unfortunately, i know who the

president wants, and there is no possibility i'm not going on the ticket. >> mr. vice president, appreciate it. >> but she'd be a great candidate. >> very diplomatic. >> thank you. >> thank you for your time, sir. >> still ahead here, we're about 20 minutes away from the start of the cnn tea party republican presidential debate here in tampa bay, florida. coming up, david gergen and gloria borger. [ female ] we will always be dependent on foreign oil. [ male ] using clean american fuel is just a pipe dream. ♪ [ female announcer ] we're rolling away misperceptions about energy independence. did you know that today about a quarter of all new transit buses use clean, american natural gas? we have more natural gas than saudi arabia has oil. so how come we're not using it even more? start a conversation about using more natural gas vehicles in your community.

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what an interesting day and a fascinating time in our politics. here in tampa, florida, tonight, eight republican candidates for president will face off in the cnn tea party debate. that's a little more than 15 minutes away, moderated by my friend, wolf blitzer. you see the debate hall right there. eight republican candidates for president trying to make the case they should lead the republican party into the 2012 campaign against the democratic incumbent, barack obama. that incumbent was in the rose garden today, one of the favorite stages of any president trying to use the bully pulpit to communicate with the american people. the congress there to urge the congress to pass the jobs program. and later today, up on capitol hill this evening is the president's plan on paper. the american jobs act the president has sent up. let's discuss the politics of the moment, the prospects of the president getting that jobs

plan, and the impact these republican presidential candidates has on the debate in washington. i'm joined here in tampa by david gurden and our chief, political analyst, gloria borger. david, i want to start with the president. he gave the speech thursday night, surrounded by teachers, firefighters, policeman, people he says would be helped by his jobs act. construction workers. the president in the rose garden and his case to the american people is, help me, and in part, he says republicans should like most of what's in my plan. he thinks they oppose it simply because passing it might help him politically. >> the notion that there are folks who would say, we're not going to try to do what's right for the american people, because we don't think it's convenient for our politics, we've been seeing that too much around here. and that's exactly what folks are tired of. >> is that what this is? or is it just a legitimate

policy difference? >> there are genuine philosophical differences between the parties on this. just as they have been on how you cut the deficits. and john, i think, politically, there have been two surprises since the president's speech. the president was all fired up for that speech. he fired up a lot of democrats, got great applause among liberal pundits. and normally when you have a speech like that in a joint session, you see a bump in the polls. bill clinton would routinely get that. so far, early polls, no bump. maybe we'll see a change, but that's a surprise to me. second surprise, the stories throughout the day about how he's going to pay for it. we'll have to see what really comes out, but the early stories say he's planning to pay for the whole thing, the whole $450 billion with tax increases. that's a nonstarter for a lot of republicans, whether you -- whatever you think about 2012. >> and so then, to that point, eric cantor, the house majority leader, republican, was conciliatory last week and the speaker still conciliatory tonight saying, we'll score it, see how much it will cost, and then we'll talk, mr. president. tax increases will be a n

nonstarter. eric cantor saying, "i sure hope that the president is not suggesting that we pay for his proposals with a massive tax increase at the end of 2012 on the job creators that we're actually counting on to reduce unemployment." >> do you think that's a little tongue and cheek? the president knows they're not going to agree it to, they know they're not going to agree to it. they also look at their popularity ratings, see that the approval rating of congress is 14%. >> in the good polls. >> you wonder who those 14 are. >> so if they were to come out of the box and say, no way. that would have been a problem for them. and so, they're behaving. it's not a problem for these folks behind us debating. they're going to oppose it. >> it's an interesting point. let's get to the folks debating in a minute. this debate is sponsored by the tea party. and one of my big questions is, does this movement, which has such an impact in 2010, how much impact will it have in 2012? how much impact will it have on

this nominating process? obviously, still has some juice, because it's a sponsor of a big debate here. if you look at the polls, 27% of americans, but about half of republicans, identify themselves as tea party supporters. how much, david, does that, the fact that the tea party wants none of what the president proposes, impact how the republicans deal with it? >> i think it's going to impact more than we have assumed in the press. you know, we thought that the speech would sort of begin to change the democrats. and then a week later, it looks like the underlying dynamics didn't change all that much. the republicans are conciliatory, yes, but conciliatory up to a point. they're going to be -- they clearly, the tea party clearly helped put the republicans in control of the house. they're clearly going to have a major voice tonight's a good example of how much voice they're going to have in the nomination process. and if the republican makes it to the white house, the republican will need that tea party. >> what's your biggest question as we watch these candidates tonight? what are you looking for tonight, as we move through the series of debates, in which now

you have a perry, romney, and then question mark field. >> there's been a big sense of unsettledness, if that's a word, about this republican field. until the last couple of polls, where you get a sense that the people are sort of settling down, romney, perry. i think the big question people out there watching and that i have is, who can take the fight to barack obama? and republicans want to win. they want somebody who can really take the fight to barack obama. and i think we'll see that develop on the stage tonight, in the way rick perry chooses to answer the charges that are going to be brought against him on social security and the way mitt romney decides to attack him on that. but we will see that, i believe. >> and who has the most at stake? >> i think rick perry has an awful lot at stake here. he's sort of been like this star bur starburst in our politics. the question is, is he going to burn out or continue to burn? >> or does sarah palin get in?

>> that's a question for another day. david, gloria, appreciate your insights. the debate's coming up in just a few moments. when we come back, we'll help you set the stage. two key grassroots conservatives. what do they want out of this debate tonight? is this the tea party -- is the tea party winning or the republican establishment winning in what is in some ways a tug-of-war for the heart and soul of the republican party. we're minutes away, 11 minutes away from the cnn tea party debate. stay right here. in here, pets never get lost. ♪ in here, every continent fits in one room. it was fun, we played football outside. why are you sitting in the dark? ♪ [ male announcer ] in here, you're never away from home. it's the at&t network. and what's possible in here is almost impossible to say.

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just about eight minutes away from the top of the hour. and the cnn tea party republican presidential debate. let's start our pregame show, if you will, with two grassroots conservatives. my friend wolf blitzer is moderating. eric erickson is editor of the conservative redstate.com. and the organizer of the international tea party coalition. here's my question, you have a tug of war between grassroots conservatives and the republican establishment, if you will. who, who in this field is your candidate? >> i don't know. you know, i see a lot of candidates, each have qualities with which i identify. i can tell you the easier question to answer is who do i not identify with, who do the grassroots not identify with, i would have to say that's mitt romney. >> he's second in the polls. do you view this now as romney

the establishment candidate? >> right now romney and perry, if perry flubs tonight's debate, then michele bachmann has another shot at it. if he does, that locks in perry versus romney. that doesn't help romney. >> if you're hearing a little noise behind us, it's democracy. we protesters from different causes out here. they clashed over social security. it is certain they'll clash again tonight over social security. governor romney brought up another piece of governor perry's record. let's play this and i'll explain it on the other side. i guess we don't have that. you brought up in charleston, south carolina, was the vaccine that the governor ordered teeb

age girls to get. he now brings that up -- we have the sound. >> we have a health care plan in our state which has mandate. i don't know about south carolina's laws. in massachusetts we also have mandates that you have to have auto insurance and we mandate kids have to go to high school. some states, texas, for instance, mandates that -- or did mandate that young girls have to get innoculations for sexually transmitted diseases. there are a wide range of mandates. so that's not breaking new ground. >> gentle there. let's see how it plays nout the debate. that's governor romney saying they don't like the government telling them what to do and he doesn't, too. >> he used the analogy with auto insurance. that's something state ran and that's protect other people from you. but if you compare perry care to romney care, at least governor perry offered an opt-out. i'm still not a fan of this on

hpv. if you have to have an opt-out, you should have the legislation. but romney care in massachusetts, there was no such thing as an opt-out. his mandate hurt small business owners. anyone with less than 11 employees had to pay a $300 fine for not abide big the mandate. this is the same candidate who says he wants to make it easier for small business. he can't reconcile what he's saying now with what his record was. >> i don't know that the hpv vaccine issue has staying power since perry backed down and has held on to romney here. many say that's the issue he should have flipped on but didn't. i'm interested in how to candidates pivot to immigration which i think is rick perry's ultimate achilles' heel. >> you mentioned that. i was the moderator of a panel with 100 tea party members in this room with this lunch. let's play a snippet of their questions because we know jobs and the economy are a big issue.

we know these candidates have been sparring over social security. what do these tea party voters want? listen. >> we want to bring the jobs back to america. let's start exporting all the illegal aliens here going after the employers and saving the jobs for americans. >> don't you think if we did away with all regulations and cut taxes totally we'd still have a problem competing with china and what they do illegally really? >> i woke up one day and i saw socialism, and i have a question why nobody will call it socialism and how we can educate and pull the wool back off of everybody's eyes? >> let's start with immigration, then get to some of the other issues raised there. you think it could be his achilles heel because he allows illegal immigrants -- >> yeah, rick perry, state college, with the state discount, you can go there. they call it the texas dream

act. romney i don't think will pivot that way because he doesn't want to get to the right of perry on this issue. bachmann could. getting to the left on social security only hurts him. i think perry gets a pass on some of these issues because one of the polling lines cnn asked that people haven't paid attention to, 30% believe that perry will fight for what he believes in, only 20% with romney. meaning that romney's changing positions over time is ankh erg him down. >> we always say, well, it will be about electability this time because president obama's vulnerable. there's no democrat who would dispute that. when you talk to votes in conversations, do they say, electability trumps positions on the issues? you heard those voters in there. what about immigration, what about china. why won't these guys just call it socialism? >> well, to dovetail into what erick was saying, grass roots voters are interested in a

candidate that would beat president obama in an election more so than they're worried about his electability right now. the electability is going to come up, obviously, that's what these debates are all about and that's what we'll see tonight. but right now we need to see a candidate who is strong and cannot only pacify some of the establishment critics but also reach out to grassroots and independents and that candidate, that will be the electability and we'll see. >> so often the debates are to flesh out positions on issues. do you think these debates are more republicans say, all right, i'm going to imagine obama up on a debate stage. he's a pretty persuasive guy and a good debater. >> no, on rick perry, they want to see if he can hold his own in a debate. if he can, it will isolate his place in the race. where do they stand, where do they nuance on the fiscal issues. that will be the make or break for c