bebelongs to candy. the house and senate in a stare-down over a shutdown. perry stumbles and bachmann tumbles on an unstable republican field, and the president pushes his agenda in full-bore campaign mode. >> i'm a warrior for the middle class. >> 408 days until the election. today -- jobs, debt and re-election with white house advisor david plouffe. political stalemate in congress with two moderate senators, republican lamar alexander and democrat mark warner. then indiana governor mitch daniels on the gop presidential field. and 2012 politics with "usa today's" susan page and "time" magazine's michael crowley. i'm candy crowley -- and this is "state of the union." mark this down as the week barack obama took ownership of the economy, more precisely it was given to him. a "usa today"-gallup poll shows

for the first time a majority of americans, 53%. feel that president obama is greatly or o moderamoderately t for the economy. more people still blame former president george bush but president obama won't be running against george bush next year. with me, obama's 2008 presidential campaign advisor and now senior white house advisor. thank you, david, for joining us. before we get to the politics of it, which is fascinating to all of us, let's get to the president's jobs bill. would he be open to breaking up this bill for the parts that you know you could get agreement on? >> well, the president has been very clear as he's traveled across the country and in the speech to congress that he thinks this -- the american jobs act would have a pro found impact on our economy right now. it would put a lot more people back to work, put more money in the pockets of workers, put construction workers, teachers, veterans, back to work, help small businesses all across the

country. this is what the economy needs right now. the question is if you think the economy's doing okay i guess you're not going to act. but if you think this economy is far too weak and needs a jump-start -- so we expect there will be an entire vote on the jobs act in september. these are things that generally would not be highly controversial. things that have brought bipartisan support in the past. >> you and the president both understand politics. there will be things in terms of paying for it that the republicans won't agree to. the republicans say we can agree to certain things, including infrastructure bank which is important for creating jobs. push coming to shove, would you rather take parts of it or do you have to have the whole of it? >> again, there's any number of hypotheticals in the coming months but we're going to continue to demand this type of action that is going to have a pro fufound impact on the econo right now aimed squarely at the middle class. the folks really for folks in congress is do they want to go

back at the end of the year and report back to their constituents that they didn't do anything to help the economy create jobs, help the middle class. we think at the end of the day there's going to be some action here. we think it needs to be the american jobs act is aimed squarely at providing the jump-start the economy right now but it is part after long-term economic strategy. get our fiscal house in order in the long term, continue to build new industries in high-tech manufacturing, investment in education, but the economy is far too weak right now. it needs a jump-start. >> the president in his various appearances around his country pushing for the jobs act has been quoting mark zandy from moody's aen litti analytics aboy jobs this would create. i want to put up something for our audience that zandi said to the associated press on saturday. when he sticks by his numbers for 2012 but he says beginning in 2013 and certainly into 2014 the plan is a drag on the

economy because the stimulus starts fading away. so by 2015 the economy is in the same place as now, as if there were no jobs package. >> well, that statement points out how weak the economy is right now. and i think that if you don't act right now the economy's going to be in a deeper hole. so we have to do some things right now to immediately jump-start the economy, but that will help lead to more consistent positive economic growth. investments in small business. investments in roads and bridges and ports. our schools. in many states teachers are being laid off. we don't have students learning. listen, they're competing against kids -- >> i guess his point is that they'll still be laid off when the stimulus money runs out. >> well listen. i think that we can act right now or we cannot act right now. if we act right now it is going to be part of strengthening this economy. this economy will eventually begin to fully recover and this is going to be an important part of it because obviously we had a couple of months early in the year where we had some very

significant job growth. we're not producing enough jobs, we don't have enough growth. there's a lot of headwinds out there. we see what's happening in europe right now. another significant headwind on our economy so we have to act right now and do some things. mark zandi and others have looked at the american jobs act pc , of the 2 million jobs -- >> has he signed on to what he thinks will happen in the out years? >> we think these things can have a profound impact not in the next year or year-and-a-half but provide foundation for longer term growth as we go through the decade. >> economists i talk to say there can't be any recovery until the housing industry recovers. do you have any debt restructuring for homeowners under water or those about to lose their homes? is there something else you can do? >> the best thing we can do for the housing market is to have the economy recover. if you were able to drop the unemployment rate by a point -- >> you all say it will be around 9% this time next year. >> well, the fundamental

recovery of the housing market is going to be twin to a recovery in the economy but there are some things we can and have done. we announced additional forbearance so people who have been unemployed have more time in terms of their home loans. the president announced in his jobs speech and plan two significant eye nems. one a neighborhood stabilization fund to allow local communities to rehabilitate, tear down, turn into rental housing refinancing proposal that would allow millions of americans to save $2,000 a year. we'll explore additional ideas. we'll have to throw everything we can at this. >> there are other things you can do, such as? >> we announced those two in the jobs package. we think a refinancing proposal to give the average family $2,000 a year would be significant taking advantage of these historically low interest rates. we've obviously got in many urban areas in particular, you've got homes that are in need of repair, even demolition, turn them into rental. that would be an important thing to do. we'll look at every other idea out there. again there is not going to be

any silver bullet. it will take a lot of different things to make an impact. >> you heard that poll coming in to this interview that more and more people think the president is at least moderately to blame for the state of the economy. what then is your pitch in 2012? if it is going to be on the economy, you all know and have predicted it will be slow through next year. you can't run on the economy. >> the american people understand it took us a long time to get to this point. it will take us a long time to get out. for the middle class this just wasn't about what happened in 2008 in the great recession. for a long time they've been seeing their wages stagnate, they are falling farther and farther behind. that's the central mission for our country and for president obama. >> couple quick questions as we close this out. does the president expect to make any major changes in the white house staff or in his cabinet between now and the election? any of that in the works? >> i think the president is very competent in his team, in the

direction we've laid out here. we've laid out for the american people a clear plan for immediate action on the economy through the american jobs act. an approach to our long-term fiscal future that we think is smart and balanced. no, i think he's got a good plan. he's got a good team to execute that. >> so no major changes in either staff or cabinet that you can say particularly on the economic part of the -- >> i don't expect that, no. >> let me ask you about pakistan. we had admiral mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs out there saying, look, pakistan supported the haqqani network attack on the u.s. embassy. you now have the pakistanis firing back saying u.s. policy is confused and in disarray. what is the state of u.s.-pakistan relationships right now? >> we've made it clear and admiral mullen and secretary clinton talked to their counterparts in pakistan as recently as this week, that obviously with the haqqani network there are safe havens there that are being abided and they're links.

>> so this seems a little ratcheted up. >> well, the message has been clear. obviously the haqqani network provides great danger to the people of the pakistan, to the people of the united states, to other countries, and those links and those safe havens, we are continuing to incyst that the pakistani government make clear and take action to make sure that these safe havens and these links are eliminated because it is providing clearly the situation where they are free to operate in a way that's quite dangerous. >> again that's kind of been so for some time now. this is now saying pakistan -- the intelligence arm of the pakistani government supported an attack on u.s. embassy. can you let that stand? >> well, listen. we obviously continue to he gauge engage in a great deal of cooperation with pakistan. 20 of the top 30 al qaeda leaders have been eliminated, including obviously osama bin laden.

so we've made great progress. we'll continue to make the case that any arm of the pakistani government that's providing aid, comfort and safe haven for the haqqani network, we can't abide that. >> or else? >> well, we're going to continue to make the case in every way possible -- as i mentioned secretary clinton, admiral mullen met with our pakistani counterparts as recently as this week. we have to continue to make progress on this. >> haven't you been making the case for some time? >> well, we have been making the case for some time. >> does there have to be an "or else"? we give them billions. >> we have. and obviously there's been some i think mention that some aid could be in jeopardy here but i think we're going to continue -- we have to work closely with them obviously in terms of the fight against al qaeda in that region. but at the end of the day, we have to continue to make the point, yes. >> just to pinpoint this. you would think about cutting back aid? >> well, again -- >> you agree to that?

>> again, those discussions are happening between our foreign policy and national security teams. obviously we need to continue to have as much cooperation as we can but we cannot abide the situation where the haqqani network is being provided safe havens. any links there need to be decoupled and that's going to be a very important aim for us in the coming period of time. >> david plouffe, senior advisor at the white house, thanks for joining us. when we womcome back, round three after looming government shutdown with mark warner and lamar zant alexander.wh i can s. i do my best to make it work. i'm back on the road safely. and i saved you money on brakes. that's personal pricing.

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joining me to talk about the latest budget showdown in congress, from nashville, republican senator lamar zander from tennessee and here with me, senator mark warner from virginia. gentlemen, thank you both. we are now in the midst of a discussion about a third government shutdown in a year. let me start with you, senator warner, and ask you if you think there is a point where this is embarrassing. >> are we there? can we once again inflict on the country and the american people the spectacle of a near government shutdown? i sure as heck hope not. if we're going to have the discussion right now, it is about how we pay for emergency assistance. fema. the senate passed with the support of republicans fema legislation that would point -- >> the emergency management agency which helps people after hurricane irene. >> it was disastrous. we've seen now come out of the house driven by a small group within the house of the tea party crowd that says hold on here, the deal we cut at the end of july that said we're not going to try to do another fight at least through the balance of this year about the budget numbers, that deal is no longer being put in place and there is this effort that's my way or the highway again. the senate is saying -- we're going to be back on on monday, why should we in effect rebuild schools in iraq on the credit card. but expect rebuilding schools in joplin, misso a men fksreasal afat but dyoage thha i'll give the senate democratic leader most of the credit. he manufactured a crisis all week about disaster when there's no crisis. everybody knows we're going to pay for every single penny of disaster aid that the president declares. and that fema certifies and the

house sent over a bill that does that and the senate should have approved it. what it did was take $1.5 billion of unobligated funds and say unstead of adding to the debt we're not going to add to the debt whether we do this. now what we should have been doing this past week is all we could do to create an environment so the work that senator warner, senator chambliss and others have done to reduce the debt by $4 trillion succeeds. that would have been a good use of the week instead of this chest-pounding and game-playing that's been going on. >> we kind of are where we are. and monday as far as we understand it there will be a key test vote in the senate which is not -- the senate version at this point being we will accept the spending levels in the house bill for federal emergency management agency and other things but we will not do the offsets or the pay-for-it parts of the house bill. looks like that's not going to happen. looks like that cloture vote, it

is a test vote, will fail. what then, senator zander? >> well, that's up to senator reid, senator mcconnell and others but let's be clear about this. we spent all week talking about this with senator reid saying we had to have $7 billion. when nobody certified that much damage, then on friday the republicans said, okay, let's vote today. let's not wait over the week sew puts it off until monday. i don't like this business of sitting around blaming each other over such small potatoes. what we really ought to be doing is spending time to see if we can get $4 trillion in debt reduction. senator warner, chambliss and others have rounded up 37 senators equally divided by party who agree we should do that. we'd like our super committee to succeed. if we could do that we could begin to get the economy in better shape and gain some confidence in the country. >> senator warner, back to the sort of larger question rather than the inner workings of this bill. and that is secretary geithner actually put it this week, he

talked about how our global trading partners think that the u.s. political system looks manifestly broken. is there something that you could -- i mean you hear this. senator alexander saying we're talking about the wrong thing, this was a manufactured political debate, regardless of whether you agree with anybody, you thout think it was a manufactured political debate, too, only you blame different people. so why shouldn't we look at this and go, this should be the year of the anti-incumbent, just vote for any name you don't know. >> i agree with senator alexander we need to get back to the single biggest thing to actually restore some confidence both internationally an domestically and that is put in place a long-term $4 trillion debt reduction plan. i think that would give confidence back to consumers to start spending, businesses who are actually large businesses who are sitting on a couple trillion dollars of cash on their balance sheets. i think that would be very, very positive. senator alexander's been very supportive of this effort. we've got an equal number of

democrats, republicans trying to do this. one point about who to blame or not to blame on this current hopefully non-shutdown is that there is a group -- i do believe it is mostly centered in the house in terms of some of these tea party republicans -- who say on every issue we're going to make this a make-or-break. we saw it on the faa when they shut down the federal aviation administration. we're seeing it now on this debate about fema. we should be able to have a legitimate debate about emergency aid. why link that into a government shutdown or not? so my hope is that cooler heads will prevail on this short-term so-called continuing resolution budget extension. but i do agree with senator alexander, we've got to get back to the bigger issue which is how do we send confidence back to the american public and to the markets. the only way we're going to get that done is if we actually, democrats and republicans, start being americans before they put on their partisan hats. >> it is sort of what we've been talking about for a long time

now. it never quite seems to happen. let me move you to the so-called super committee which is looking to find -- has to find $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in savings that everyone can agree on by the end of the year. this seems to me to be a very tall order and it also seems to me that we are seeing more and more stories now about how this is not going to happen. can you all afford to not come up with some agreement? because then, as you know, supposedly automatically budgets will be cut -- >> here's the circumstance. every economist that i've heard of has said that if we don't get $4 trillion in debt reduction over the next ten years, then we're not going to put our economy and get ourselves the debt-to-gdp ratio on a sustainable path. the challenge the super committee's got is we've cut about $1 trillion. even if they do $1.5 trillion more, that's really not going to be enough. so we've got to go ahead and say

to them, go ahead and take on tax reform and generate some additional revenues, take on entitlement reform and make sure programs like medicare and social security are going to be there for the next 75 years. and what our group is trying to say, democrats, republicans alike, business leaders, if you will do that we got your back. if you will go big, we will stand there and be supportive. because this is a once in a long time opportunity, because whatever they come up with will get a straight up or down vote. that doesn't often happen. we can actually then cut out the rhetoric and see where you stand on this issue. >> senator alexander, i'll give you the last word on this. i know you hope that the super committee can go big or can at least go to what it's supposed to be doing. but i want you to tell me what you honestly think will be the work product of the super committee. >> well, i'm not sure exact -- i'm not sure the details but in's hopeful, i'm optimistic. the budget agreement that we agreed on in august is better

than people think. it took 40% of the budget, discretionary, everything from national defense to national parks, and it's got it going up over the next ten years at about the rate of inflation. 55% that's mandatory spending is going up at three times the rate of inflation. i hope that the super committee works on that part of the budget and i'm willing to define success in terms of what happens not just in the next ten years but the ten years and the ten years after that. because as mark said, we're looking at 75 years of solvency for medicare, social security and these programs. we've been making real progress in that area, i think that would be success as well. >> senators, thank you both so much. another republican presidential debate that left more questions than answers. [ junior ] i played professional basketball for 12 years.

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six republican presidential debates so far and a lot to ponder. rick perry's less than smooth performances. >> you said your hard copy book was exactly what the american people needed to have that romney care given to them as you had in massachusetts. >> and michele bachmann's suggestion that the president is so weak, republicans can choose a conservative candidate instead of a moderate one deemed more electable. >> every four years conservatives are told that we have to settle. and it's anybody but obama. that's what we're hearing this year. i don't think that's true. we need to choose a candidate who represents conservatives and constitutional conservative positions. >> whether governor perry's texas decision to give college tuition assistance to the children of illegal aliens will cost him part of his

conservative fan base. >> if you say that we should not educate children who have come in to our state for no other reason than they've been brought there by no fault of their own, i don't think you have a heart. >> and has the rest of the republican field become just background noise? next up -- a man who thought about but ultimately backed away from his own presidential bid, indiana governor mitch daniels. [ barks ]

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>> male announcer: now, for a limited time, your companion flies free, plus save up to 65%. call 1-800-sandals. conditions apply. joining me here in washington, republican indiana gfer mitch daniels whose new book is called "keeping the republic, saving america by trusting americans." governor, thank you for being with us today. appreciate it. i want to start off talking a little bit about the republican field which you chose not to join, and ask you to size it up for me. you're watching from afar as most americans are watching right now. they're not as intensely involved as say reporters -- >> maybe further than some of them, yeah. >> who do you think is standing out at this point in the republican field? >> i don't have anything original to say. think the two governors, romney and perry, seem to be getting the most attention and for the

moment at least seem to be the dominant personalities in the race. >> i wanted to play you something that mike huckabee said about governor perry's performance in this past debate. >> i think rick perry is not prepared for the pressure of the presidential stage yet. rick perry's got a struggle ahead of him. >> now you add to this that the "weekly standard," a conservative publication, called it almost disqualifying, speaking of perry's performance in the debates. he seems to be fading partially because running for governor is not the same as running on the national scene. do you envision a republican party that at this point would pick rick perry? >> yeah, maybe. i think it's way too early to know or to issue -- pronounce last rights over one performance. there are so many of these --

too many maybe. so he hasn't been in it that long. i understand what governor huckabee was saying but i'd cut him a little slack, give him a little time. >> one of the things that you have said over time is that you've been a little disappointed of the things the republican field has chosen to take up. the things that they're saying. what in particular do you think they're not talking about? >> i don't think they're yet talking about the things that the two senators just spoke to. the things that have a lot of zeros attached to them. the ones that are threatening to kill not just an economy but the entire idea of america, the idea of upward mobility from the bottom and tomorrow's better than today. and so i'm hoping that things will evolve. i tell you what brothers me a little bit, candy, the president is clearly in very desperate political shape. seems more clear every day. i worry a little bit, ironically, that the republican field or our nominee might look at that and say, i'll just play

it safe. i'll get elected as the default option. he made it worse, i'm not him, vote for me. and that will be i think a huge miss opportunity because there's a clock ticking. this is not a philosophical argument i make in this book or anywhere else, it is's rit ari. something i heard senator warner say. i wish he were president. >> there's a little bipartisanship there. >> it's going to take that. the brits have a great saying -- now that the money has run out we shall have to begin to think. i just hope that even though the chances of electoral success next year look pretty good to me and better all the time, next year i think should be seized as an opportunity to talk with all our fellow americans about this common problem. it threatens us all, left to right, r & d.

this president's not going to do it so it has to be our nominee. >> in fact you said in your book, that u.s. debt is more likely to sink democracy or personal freedom than in previous times when the soviet nuclear threat was seen as the big danger to democracy. just explain that in terms of what happens if we have a debt? because there is this feeling that, well, debt doesn't actually matter that much, there doesn't seem to be that kind of urgency -- there's politics to it, that's where the politics are right now but is it where the urgency is? >> well, it needs to be. because it is a mathematical fact that we are headed for debt levels we cannot sustain. in simple terms -- >> what would that mean practically speaking? >> in practical terms it would mean mortgage payments, just the interest payments we are making as a federal government, not to mention states or even private citizens, is consuming so much money there is not enough left to hire anybody. it is come snsumer so much mone

the public side that public education will be devastated. and it means -- >> so higher interest rates for -- on everything, and less money to spend on things -- >> too much money going to the mortgage and not enough to pay the rest of the necessities of life. it is very clear, and again it is not ideological in any way -- it is very clear that nations that go past a certain point of debt do not recover. the heart of my concern has to do with the promise of america and we're starting to see that fraying around the edges. without an america in which people really believe, even though things are tough today, things will be better, my kids will live better, without a stable middle class we'll also something even more precious than material well being -- we'll lose the self-governance that we've brought to the world. >> the underlying premise of your book, "keeping the h

republic, saving america by trusting americans," is that americans will step up to the plate if you just tell them the truth, if you lay it out for them. who's not telling the american public the truth and what is the truth, as you see it, that we can handle? >> well, the truth is that we just talked about the first -- again, arithmetic fact. it's math. the second is that we cannot possibly continue on with the safety net programs we have in exactly the current forms. >> social security, medicare, medicaid. >> that's right. we can say to today's seniors and those entering in the next few years, don't worry about a thing, nothing changes for you, you are good to go, a deal is a deal. now, please join with us and let's create new programs starting in the future that mean that the young people who are paying for your retirement have some protection, too. and those programs will have to look different. they'll have to stop sending checks to the wealthiest citizens, for instance. this is what mark warner was talking about and senator

alexander and the sooner people from both sides concentrate on that problem and then all the rest of the grocery excessive federal government spending that we're doing, the sooner we can get on the way to economic recovery. >> indiana governor mitch daniels, thank you for joining us. the book is "keeping the republic." i appreciate you stopping by. after the break, governor perry takes a distant second to herman cain in the florida straw poll. is perry's front-runner status in jeopardy? we're going to ask our panel. [ female ] we will always be dependent on foreign oil. [ male ] using clean american fuel is just a pipe dream. ♪ [ female announcer ] we're rolling away misperceptions about energy independence. did you know that today about a quarter of all new transit buses use clean, american natural gas? we have more natural gas than saudi arabia has oil.

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joining me now, susan page, washington bureau chief for "usa today," and michael crowley, deputy washington bureau chief for "time" magazine who we forgive for mispronouncing his game. let me start with the florida straw poll results in which we saw herman cain take 37.1% of the folks voting down there, florida activists, followed by rick perry and mitt romney virtually tied, down to santorum, then ron paul. so this was characterized as a big surprise that herman cain was everybody's second choice and became everyone's first choice after the debate. you buy that?

>> you know, i was down there, i talked to a lot of delegates yesterday coming in and, yes, a lot of delegates said i wanted to vote for rick perry but i was just concerned about his debate performance but even more that than that, about his stance on immigration. then he didn't show up with the speeches to the convention yesterday afternoon. herman cain was there, gave a real stem-winder of a speech. i think people were not quite ready endorse rick perry and herman cain gave them a place to be. >> because we're getting a lot of talk now that perry's fading and part of it is his -- we should just explain that his immigration stance being that he gives in-state tuition aid to the children of illegal aliens and this makes him -- this is not a popular position inside the -- certainly not a conservative position inside the republican party. do you think he is fading a la michele bachmann in that it is hard to see a path for her toward the nomination? or is this a temporary thing? >> well, i don't know if it is

temporary. i would be very surprised if he disappeared the way bachmann has. it's been incredible the way she essentially vanished, in large part due to perry. but i think he has much more credibility as president. i think his electability case is much stronger. obviously he's run the largest or run of the largest states in the country for a decade. he has much more establishment support. but he's clearly failed to close the deal early on and i think you do still see there's this energy on the right of the republican party, this kind of desire for vis aceral satisfactn first from donald trump, then michele bachmann, now maybe herman cain is having his moment. i think perry's profile has enough gaps in it on the right that that's still going to be sloshing around for a while. he's got to find a way to lock those people down if he wants to put romney away. >> we also had another straw poll from michigan this morning and i think it was 50% -- more than 50% here. 50.9%. the mackinaw straw poll, rick

perry 16. %. mitt romney runs away with it now. he's basically the hometown boy in michigan. his father was governor there and this is activist republicans, romney's a very familiar name.>name.. >> the races continue to be unsettled. i think what we've learned this weekend is that there's going to be an extended fight between mitt romney and rick perry. they both have some strength. they both have a considerable amount of money, we think, the ability to raise money. and neither of them have closed the deal. that's what i take away from this weekend. >> mitt romney has been an incredibly lucky candidate. when he was coasting along as the front-runner, in the spring and summer the other candidates didn't want to engage too much with one another. tim pawlenty famously shid away from an attack in the debate, a

key reason he got out of the race. we got to the fall and it was everybody gang up on the front-runner. it wasn't romney anymore. it was rick perry. now herman cain steals the straw poll in florida. romney was not a straw poll force. then they go right to michigan, romney's home turf. one break after another. i think sooner or later we'll start a conversation about all these flip-flops. >> the pack is going to turn on romney in the way they turn on perry. i think that's a little early to say perry's done and romney's got it. >> i saw a poll recently that said that about half of republicans said that they really want a conservative candidate that that was their first choice over someone electable. i find that so hard to believe. when you look at the polling, certainly romney stands out as more electable, not that much more electable, but more electable than governor perry. what's going to win out in the end? >> well, i think you often see early on a desire for ideological credentials.

i think back to the 2004 presidential campaign when howard dean was galloping away, democrats were so frustrated with president bush but they were saying give him hell, somebody who tells it like it is, it going to be fearless, is really going to change things. finally they said john kerry, we don't love him but he might be the guy who could actually get the white house back. if i have to bet, i'd say that's the dynamic that will play out this time. >> if the republicans are dating perry, will they marry romney? >> i think we want somebody that can get us back into power. if you're holding the white house and looking to nominate a new person, as the republicans were last time, i think it is a less powerful argument. people forget how terrible it is to be out of power around how much power a president has. how much winning matters. >> president obama's poll problem under the microscope when we come back with our reporter panel. [ horn honks ] ♪ oh, those were the best of days ♪

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moderately a lot blame president obama for the state of the economy. this to me was a pivotal moment in a -- and a bad one for him. >> there's a point where the president owns the economy. even if he inherited a bad one. we see the president -- blame for president obama going up, 60% of independents say he bears some responsibility for economic woes. blamed for -- president bush going down. i think before the 201 election those lines will intersect -- >> they will blame obama more. >> it will be obama's economy for good or ill. >> the white house is looking at this and saying, yes, we get it. we understand it, but the fact of the matter is that when people get a gander at rick perry or mitt romney, they will come back to the president. do you -- i mean, it may be

their only defense at this point, but do you buy that? >> well, i think it's their only hope. when unemployment is in this condition, when the public is no longer even assigning primary blame to the past administration, i think republicans have done an effective job in suggesting, for instance, a stimulus program. i think there's a lot of evidence that softened the blow of this terrible recession. the republicans have done a great job in suggesting it exacerbated the problem, that obama's policies are making things worse as opposed to not sufficiently improving them. you have so little to run on in that area. in contrast to say do you want to go back to the policies of the past? these guys are out of the mainstream, there will probably be character-based attacks. i think we're in for a negative campaign as a result. >> what we're seeing, of course, is that independents are just leaving him in droves. i think 52% of independents voted for him. his popularity, approval rating now is about 35%. i want to talk about a different party that he cannot win without and that's his base. this was the president last

night at a congressional black caucus dinner. >> i don't have time to feel sorry for myself. i don't have time to complain. i'm going to press on. i expect all of you to march with me and press on! take off your bedroom slippers. put on your marching shoes. shake it off. stop complaining. stop grumbling. stop crying. we are going to press on. we've got work to do! >> this is to his base. and we have seen a big drop in african-american support for the president. but realistically speaking, it is very hard for me to believe that the people that he complained are grumbling, complaining, crying, are going to pick up on election morning in 2012 and go vote for the republican candidate. >> you know, i think one of barack obama's great political strengths is his african-american base. they're going to be with him. i think his bigger problem are other parts of the coalition he put together. young people, hispanics, people

who are not reliable voters. he got them to turn out last time. if they're not enthused, will they turn out to vote? probably not, that's what history tells us. >> and that is going to be where the turnout effort is -- is focused, which is the base, which is where everybody focuses. folks that you know are going to vote for you and aren't deciding as they walk into the booth. but the question is whether some of his base is going to be so depressed they'll stay home, isn't it? >> i think so. obviously you're not going to see a lot of african-americans defecting to the republican party. the concern would be that they stay home. other members of the base, the students, young people, new voter who came into the system last time in particular. i think that's a big area of worry for them. i can imagine, not to get too hypothetical, but a scenario of saying rick perry is the nominee, his record on immigration from the perspective of hispanic voters is not that bad. and maybe marco rubio is on the ticket, you could scramble that part of the equation. the last point, that is obama at

his best. the fire, people are saying they don't see. he's funny, joking, he looks loose. the applause is rising. he's hitting his notes. and i think that is the thing that appealed to people in the last campaign. if he can do more, get himself away from the white house podium where he looks dry and profess orrial, it will help. >> in order for president obama to win he has to -- >> show economic results. people understand the economy, there's not an argument of a politician can persuade them, if they're worried about the future for their kids, that is a hard environment for an incumbent to get re-elected. >> the strange way to think about it is angela merkel is crucial to that, europe can pull it out, obama might be able to pull it out. if they can't get it together, we may be headed for catastrophe. it will be hard for obama to recover from another step-back in the economy. >> thank you. up next, top stories. and then on fareed zakaria, more from the united states general

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now time for a check of today's top stories. 19 people were killed today including two americans when a small plane crashed in nepal. it was returning from a

sightseeing tour when it hit a mountain and broke into pieces as it was trying to land. at least ten people were killed and 70 wounded in four consecutive explosions in iraq. all four blast occurred about 60 miles southwest of baghdad. police say the explosions targeted civilians who were on their way to an office that issues passports and travel documents. in yemen, clashes between protesters and government troops this weekend have left dozens dead. demonstrators are calling for the country's president saleh, to be tried for crimes against humanity. shane bauer and joshua fattal were freed after being held by iran for more than two years on spy charges. the men are expected to arrive at new york's jfk airport later this morning. cnn will have coverage of their arrival. those are today's top stories. thank you very much for watching "state of the union." i'm candy crowley in washington. up next for our viewers here