that shaky debate performances are hurting the presidential campaign of texas, governor rick perry. also in our revealing new numbers, a warning sign for sarah palin. a young woman who disappeared after heading out to buy groceries is returned to her family by syrian security forces, beheaded and mutilated. we begin tonight with breaking news right here in washington. it looks like there will not be a government shutdown after all. thanks to a late hour backroom deal in the senate. and a lucky break with some federal disaster money. kate has the details. it's complicated. it's a little messy. tell us, what is happening right now? >> bottom line is this. the senate -- senate democrats, senate republican leaders have been able to reach an agreement to avert a government shutdown. that's the big headline for most of our viewers. they were able to do this after all of this discussion and all of this fight over specifically

inclusion of fema funding. additional fema funding in the short term resolution. what is happening right now, john, is there is going to be a series of two votes, actually. one thing we're looking at has to do with a clean or simple measure funding fema. this is what everyone was looking for, fwunding fema as well as not shutting down the government. and did strips away all the obstacles that had really been holding up the agreement to this point. the second measure that they will be voting on is actually -- here's the confusing part. a one-week extension. one-week short-term spending extension. and the purpose of this is simply the house is out this week, as you well know. if they can't get members back in time, or they can't get an

agreement to pass it very quickly, they'll need that one week of funding to avert the government shutdown and get the house back in time to vote on this measure. john? >> what changed? this morning into the afternoon we were told that you still had this partisan showdown. the democrats and republicans, everybody said yes. we want to give fema more money but there was a big debate over whether you had to cut other spending to get that money. what changed? >> reporter: plain and simply, fema announced today that they had enough funding. they are able to stretch the funding in their federal disaster relief fund to make it through the end of this week. that's different than earlier predictions. fema had said that they might run out of funding at the beginning of this week, which would be a problem. the reason why, the key is that they can make it through this week. at the end of this week is the end of this year. the battle over whether to pay for the fema funding or not pay for additional fema funding all had to do with fema funding for the current fiscal year, '11. if they can get through this week and get into 2012, it

removes the big obstacle that's been on the table all along, john. >> for now. for now. kate on capitol hill. thank you. >> thank you. >> this is one of the things that we know drives you crazy. you watch these debates in washington and you think it is a sandbox at best. as kate just explained to us, it is a shutdown averted for now. it plays out at a time when you watch washington. it's pretty clear. it's pretty clear. you don't think much of this town. how is the u.s. being governed? 81% of americans are dissatisfied. dissatisfied with the way that the country is being governed. 19% say that they are satisfied. the 81% in the gallup poll is historically high for discontent with the way that the government is being run. how about the united states congress? 69% of you say that you have not very much or none at all on the question of trust and confidence in the congress. look at that. 7 in 10 americans say that they have not very much trust or no trust at all in the latest branch of government. 69%.

that is a country that has a dim view of its government. let's go straight to the source. one of the republicans who came to washington promising to change the culture of this town, senator rand paul of kentucky. senator paul, we averted a shutdown for tonight. how much does this weigh on you? i know you came here saying that we're not going to spend any more money. we don't have any more money to spend. how much does it weigh when you look at the american people look at washington and see a daycare center? >> well, i'm sort of perplexed, because the democrats held this up because they said, we don't want to offset the spending. in other words, the democrats are insisting that we borrow the money for fema. and i don't think anybody in america thinks that we can perpetuate these debts and continue these annual deficits and the trillions of dollars. so i think most people will say, gosh, why could we cut duplicate spending or cut foreign aid or welfare that we're spending? i think the american people are ready for us to offset what we're doing and have cuts and not just add to the debt. >> i think the big question about that, most polls show that people are very upset about the

deficit. they want it dealt with. i want to show another graphic to our viewers. i want to take this one down and show you what we were talking about in the sense of the fema fight. $3.65 billion. this is the entire united states federal budget up here. you see where most of the money goes. discretionary spending, social security, medicare, medicaid. fema. how much is fema? look at that tiny slice. this was a huge fight. senator paul, you were wondering, if it came to it, to of the united states government shut down over this tiny little sliver. is that principle that important to you? >> 9 government is willing to shut down government if we don't borrow that amount of money. every program you can say it's only tiny little money. but if you can't cut 100 million here or offset 3 billion there, we're never going to budget the balance the deficit. you have to look at small amounts and it should be a priority.

should we be spending this money overseas in foreign aid or foreign welfare. should we be building our bridges here in our country. and it's something i actually agreed with the president. i got to ride on air force one with him recently and he's mentioned that. we have to be concerned with our country's needs as a priority right now. >> how much does this come up with members on the ballot and i asked the question in the context of this. we have a new poll out tonight and again we can tell our viewers, the government shutdown has been averted. but with that possibility, senator, we ask them, if the government shut down, who would you blame? republicans in congress, 47%. president obama, 33%. are there jitters in the republican ranks that the image of the party is taking a hit in the middle of all this? >> well, i think you could also poll and ask people whether or not they think we should add more debt or offset debt. it's not whether we should shut it down. i'm not in favor of shutting down either. i think we should pass

appropriation bills like we used to, we should have a budget. and american people are bumping up about deadlines. it looks like poor planning and a circus up here, because we're always bumping up against deadlines. i'm up here day after day not voting, sitting around and having no debate and then the deadline comes and it's hurry up or the government shuts down. how come we didn't have this debate last week or the week before or the week before that? everything comes to a deadline, i think, because of poor leadership and poor planning in this place. >> i don't think i would disagree with you on that and i think that can be, at times, a bipartisan disease. i'm not pointing at any one side. one of your republican colleagues said this today, the gridlock this partisanship is disgusting. with economic instability around the world, it's unacceptable for congress to add more uncertainty in the marketplace while threatening another government shutdown. now, senator brown is up for re-election next year, in a tough state for a republican. maybe that's a little bit about his re-election campaign as well.

we've already seen the united states credit rating downgraded. you saw the poll numbers that i just showed you. i understand your point, senator. is there any effort to get the republicans and democrats in a room to say, let's get back to passing a real budget? let's get back to looking so we can figure out what we're doing here? >> reporter: well, many of us on the republican side have pointed out that it's been over 900 days since the senate has had a budget. so we are pushing to go through the process in a normal fashion but i think people are also alarmed when you talk about uncertainty in the marketplace. i'm very alarmed when i read the news coming out of europe. but that has nothing to do with them having too much debate or gridlock, they have too much debt. that is our problem. we are following on the heals of europe because we have an enormous amount of debt. i agree with admiral mullen when he says it's the number one threat to our security is our debt. every time we have a new

spending program, it's got to be offset by cuts in other places and that's the only responsible way for a legislature to react is to prioritize spending. for example, on the highway fund, were you giving money to turtle tunnels, squirrel sanctuaries and flower beds and our bridges are crumbling. that's what i asked the president, can we not fix our bridges and put off some of these bought fiction projects for a while? i think that's a bipartisan way to look at it, and i'm more than willing to work with the president on that. >> rand paul, thank you for your time and i hope the super committee gets about its business. we'll keep in touch with you as that plays out. we'll see you again, sir. >> thank you. still ahead, a new poll indicates the rick perry boom may have piqued already. and a familiar face moving to the top of the republican field. but first, how far will syria's regime go to stamp out demands for democracy? i thoughtn for 3 days, it's been 3 weeks.

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a new low tonight after months of brutal atrocities in syria. the bloody determination to hold power. her crime? her brother was a pro democracy activist. she disappeared after leaving to get groceries. she was returned by security forces beheaded and dismembered.

amnesty international calls her death an outrage. united nations high commissioner for human rights calls it appalling. and the regime, on the day word of this crime surfaced, they asked the world to believe that syria is under attack by armed nugs and is trying to keep the peace. >> translator: syria exercises is the responsibility to protect its citizens and is going to secure their safety and stability. >> that doesn't match the accounts of the death of ze zena balbusi. >> zena carried by dozens of women in the city. protesting her slaughter and chanting for the downfall of the regime. her crime, her older brother was an activist well-known for

leading demonstrations and treating the wounded. for months he had been evading the authorities. the family says that the security forces demanded him in exchange for zena. on september 10th, muhammed was injured. he came back a corpse. tortured to death they believe. >> gunshots were being aimed at protesters for more rights. then, of course, there's this. a man on his knees in front of an army tank, unarmed, and massacred. the images, months of them now, don't lie. and yet we are asked to believe this. >> translator: syria provided

our region with a model of peaceful co existence. among the different components of the syrian people, a model which deserves to be emulated. >> here's our question. is there anything that the international community can do to pressure president assad and his cronies to stop this from continuing. joining me is journalist and middle east analyst, robin wright, an author. when you see the pictures, the procession, the horrible story of this woman killed, mutilated, by security forces and then you see the foreign minister saying, the world has it wrong. we are protecting our people against armed thugs, i don't know what the right term to use. it's fantasy land, parallel, universe. it would be laughable except for the bloody stakes. >> exactly, it would be

laughable if not for the tragedy of this young woman of 18. and one shudders to tell our audience what was done to this youth girl. she was beheaded, her arms cut off. she was skinned. so in fact what we know is that now for bashar has crossed the rubicon. and when you hear his foreign minister speaking about the dismemberment of syria, it's a grotesque idea, because this regime believes it's still facing foreign conspiracies rather than inflicting death on its own population. >> and robin, they become an international platform. we can say, my god, show the pictures and prove the foreign minister to be a liar. to prove what he says not to be true. but what about domestically back home? is this helpful to president assad to have his foreign minister on the world stage essentially condemning syria and

the united nations? >> i don't think any syrians have any illusions of what is happening at home. the reality is that this is not the first time it happened. in april a 13-year-old boy was separated from his parents. he went missing, finally his brody was returned. he had cigarette burns all over his body. and at 13 years old, his genitals had been cut off. syrians are very well aware. what is striking about what is happening in this country, the fact that they continue to turn out in peaceful disobedience against the regime. that's the stronger message that i don't think the presence of the foreign minister is convincing anyone at home. >> when we see these latest pictures, the young woman brutally murdered, we've been watching these pictures for months and months and months now. in that procession, the number of women was striking. amnesty international says it believes she is the first woman killed in captivity. is that anything that could

suggest a broader resolve in the society, a tipping point, perhaps? >> well, i think, john, the syrians have entered month number seven in the iner is eks, if you will. the thing about syria now, so far the demonstrations and protests have been peaceful. i think we may be coming to the tipping point where the people of syria will take stock of where they are and they will understand that this regime cannot be taken on peacefully. can they stand up to the regime, take up arms against them? i'm not so sure. does the international community care enough to come to the rescue of the syrians? alas it seems the verdict on this is negative. still, about a shard is protected by and shielded by china, russia, india, brazil and south africa. i think it says something about the cruelly of the international community. >> the foreign minister clearly understands that for there to be additional sanctions as fouad

knows, the owes would have to come around. the united states says it wants to protect the syrian people, wants to help the syrian people, but the very sanctions it has helped put in place, the foreign minister insists are doing more harm than good. >> this cannot be reconciled in anyway with the security and rights of syrian people. it discounts the basic principles of human rights in the issue in which these states interfere in our internal aff r affairs. >> that's the piece, interferes with our internal affairs. that's something china often criticizes, russia criticizes. he needs to keep them on if not his side, not on the other side. >> you're going to see what the

international community did to libya, applied to syria. in many ways we're witnessing a race in syria. can the regime quash the uprising fast enough before it begins paying a real price. its oil sails are already plummeting, there is no single shipment of oil exports out of a main port the entire month. letters of credit, which are needed to buy syrian oil, to deal with the damascus are not being issued by the international bank. it's a squeeze, a slow squeeze. it can make the regime pay a serious price. and so there is something happening, it's not -- it may not be enough, but it's clearly some action at least. >> robin wright, fouad ajami, appreciate your insights tonight as always. >> thank you. >> thank you. which republican presidential candidate can brag about being in a dead heet with

president obama tonight. and next, dramatic pictures of what it was like inside the washington monument when last month's earthquake hit.

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welcome back. here's the latest news you need to know right now. beginning with the breaking news from capitol hill. the senate just passed a bill that would avoid a government shutdown at the end of the week. an attorney for sarah palin tonight notified joe mcginnis that palin may sue to cover the tawdry gossip in her new book "the rogue." take a look, these pictures taken from inside the washington monument last month when the earthquake hit here in d.c. the shaking starts and the security guard looks around and pretty soon, everyone heads it down the stairs. starting tomorrow, the damage will be assessed. starting next monday, we move to 6:00 p.m. eastern. that's an hour earlier to make

room for cnn's erin burnett "out front." we start at 6:00 eastern and erin starts at 7:00 as of next monday. and, next, what can be controversial about a bake sale? well, plenty. if a price of a cupcake depends on the color of your skin. and help people save -d ems >> - up to 60% off. i am familiar. your name? > naomi pryce. >> what other "negotiating" skills do you have? > i'm a fifth-degree black belt. >> as am i. > i'm fluent in 37 languages. >> (indistinct clicking) > and i'm a master of disguise >> as am i. > as am i. >> as am i. > as am i. >> well played naomi pryce.

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there's an increased diversity bake sale. the goodies, $2. if you're a white man. if you're asian, $1.50.

$1 for latinos, 75 cents for blacks. and a quarter for native americans. women, get this, get an extra 25 cents off. yes, yes, there's a point. the berkeley college republicans hosting this bake sale say they are trying to call attention to proposed changes in university admission policies which would allow taking an applicants gender into account. those college republicans are certainly getting attention with their bake sale. shawn lewis and ed hernandez join me. shawn lewis, i want to start with you. what you are doing is pretty outrageous. i assume that's the point. >> right. and thank you. i want to say thank you, senator. it's really an honor to sit down and talk about this issue with you. thank you for inviting me. it's very controversial event and we feel that we are facing a controversial issue. sb-185 and affirmative

action-type debate. it's a very controversial issue and we're facing it with a very controversial event. >> explain why you feel this bill is necessary. >> well, again, thank you, shawn, for being on cnn. i appreciate your ability to express your opinion here in the democratic way. however, the way that you are doing it is insensitive. what we need to do is look at the true intent of the nature of this bill. and that is to make sure we have access to diversity in the state of california. and the diversity of these campuses reflect the diversity of the state. >> senator, let me stick with you for a minute. what needs to change? you say that i was reading some of the press releases that were sent out. current policy actually discouraged diversity on campus, college-age applicants for getting in the system. how so? >> well, the way proposition 209 was run, the university of california as well as the california state universities cannot use race when recruiting or trying to get qualified applicants.

what this bill does and what we specifically did and understanding and know that we do not want to change the constitution or by any means go around it. we very carefully wrote this legislation to allow the universities to be able to consider, for example, race, ethnicity, gender, to make sure that the universities reflect the demographics of the great state of california. >> shawn, i assume you're not against diversity on campus. do you think the state of california has a problem? >> if the issue is about diversity, i'd like to ask the senator, why are we only talking about race and gender? why don't we talk about things such as religion, or ideology? are we suggesting that our campus has a problem, we need to fix that problem, do we have underrepresented groups in those areas? would you suggest that maybe uc berkeley could use a few more

college republicans since republican view is pretty far in the minority? do we need more diversity in that way, too? >> does he have a point that once you open this box, you have to fully open the box? >> well, if you look at the bill and the way it's written, other factors as well are talked about, which could include what he was talking about. it also talks about gender ethnicity. there are other factors. what the bill's main intent is to look at, is to make sure we have underrepresented minorities. if you look at pre-209 and post-209, if you look at the graphics of the state, the state of california, you have 45% latino that are graduating from high school. yet 16% of them are in the uc system. >> shawn, i want to come back to the provocative nature of this. in the sense that you're doing this to make a point. you're doing this to highlight anything that is affirmative

action base or quota base. are you worried about backlash? have you received any backlash from groups on campus saying, maybe i understand your point or respect your point to make it, but this is offensive? >> in the first few hours of the event being on facebook, we got hundreds of posts on the page. you're right. we were intending to be controversial. we were hoping it would force students and members of the community to think more critically about a bill, a piece of legislation that would bring in race and treat people differently based on the color of their skin. so the controversy was there. now, the backlash that we've received was in some ways surprising. we did on the facebook event, which is still public, all the comments are still up. there are both implicit and explicit threats made to the organizers of the event. one including bringing a spiked baseball bat to the table tomorrow morning. and one that really stuck out that people responded to or are worried about is, one person said, we'll remember your faces

on campus, pick your fights wisely. there certainly has been backlash and we expected some but we really were not expecting the uncivil and violent reactions that we received. >> help me out. senator, to you first. both of you gentlemen started the conversation by saying hello to each other, by coming on to discuss this issue in a polite and simple way. when you hear things like that and how can we get the two of you, maybe some other people in a room, can this issue be worked out through nonlegislative means, perhaps. is this something that can be caused by a divide like this? >> well, first of all, let me state very clearly that it totally inappropriate for the threats that this young man has received. what he is doing is exercising his constitutional right. we may both agree to disagree, but he has a right to his opinion and i think these threats were totally inappropriate. let me clearly state that for

the record. i believe his name is shawn. my apologies for anybody to do that. and this is is the exact reason why we need to have a civil discussion on this debate about ethnicity and race. and we should be sitting down and having a calm discussion to make sure that this great university system and this great california state university system has the ability to be able to bring diversity in to make the state great. to continue to be great and to make sure we have free and open speech. >> can that discussion happen? can the college republicans invite the professor to the campus and say we disagree on the premise but let's have a conversation? >> if the conversation is about diversity, the question is still, are we only talking about race and gender? now, the language of the bill it says race, gender and other relevant factors. the very loose language of the bill is one of the problems that we have with it. it opens a wide door for lawsuits and litigation against the university of california. it doesn't provide infrastructure to guarantee that

these factors will be used in actually overcoming the diversity problems we face on our campus. if we're going to look at that issue, what other kind of diversity issues do we have? should we have more ideological representation on campus or a variety of other issues? the reason our response to this bill really came out of our student government which decided to endorse this bill and sponsor a phone bank to urge governor brown to pass and sign this bill into law. and we wanted to -- we're very adamant about saying, basically, even though berkeley is very liberal, there is not one voice or one opinion. in fact, they would really like to urge governor brown to veto this bill. >> we will watch this debate as it plays out. thank you guys for coming on and debating it tonight. we'll keep in touch. thank you. when rick perry jumped into the presidential race, his poll numbers, you know this, jumped through the roof. now the numbers are looking a little different. we'll dig into just why, next.

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will be giving away passafree copies of the alcoholism & addiction cure. to get yours, go to ssagesmalibubook.com. breaking news tonight here in washington, the united states senate just passed a new deal to prevent a government shutdown. house republicans will now decide which one to pass. you can see democrats there celebrating the passage and explaining the passage. it's been a debate that has not made most of you proud about how washington does its business. breaking news tonight, it will not be a government shutdown.

tonight the first evidence that rick perry's shaky debate performances seem to be impacting his republican presidential campaign. he's still the gop front-runner. at a minimum, his climb has stalled. 30% support among republicans, now, that's down a couple points from our cnn orc poll a couple weeks ago. mitt romney is second at 22% and former house speaker newt gingrich has climbed to 11%. here's another set of numbers that republicans are talking about tonight. in head to head matchups, perry trails by 5 points. 51% to 46%. the former massachusetts governor, romney, is in a statistical dead heet with the republican 49% to 48%. he's the only republican who has dropped the president below 50%. you can be sure team romney will make hay of those numbers.

erik erickson sees 2 differently. he ran the nomination four years ago and yet nearly 8 in ten republicans support someone else. here's my take. the biggest lesson is, despite all of the talk about putting electability first, primaries are about likability. perry has stopped climbing, even dipped a bit because as conservatives get a different look, they are out of sync with his views. let's go behind the numbers with erick erickson, republican strategist and from the 2008 campaign, kevin madden and roland martin who is a bit to the left. first, to the simple horse race numbers. i don't want to make too much of one pole, but perry was doing this, and now he's done this. in your take and in your conversations with fellow conservatives, as people learn more and more about the record, they get a little pause? >> it's not so much his record, except on immigration.

the hpv thing has been overplayed. immigration is giving people a lot of pause. what is giving more pause than anything, is the third debate performance. i suspect the polling was done starting the friday and saturday, sunday after the debate. had it gone on a little longer, although obviously you couldn't because of the calendar, perry's numbers would have been down even further. his debate was horrible and people are willing to give him one more chance to get it right and move on to someone else. >> i want to show you, before i bring kevin and roland into the conversation, i want to show a little moment here. governor romney and his wife were at an event in michigan. i'm going to call this no disrespect to anybody intended. i'm sure some will be taken, al gore like. >> you want a better kiss than that? >> no, no, no. >> we're not going to do an al

gore moment. >> we bring that out not just because it's cute video, kevin, you saw the horse race numbers that perry, romney -- if you break it down there's a gender gap in the republican field. among men, 35% of republican men say perry. 18% say romney. among women, 26% say romney and 22% say perry. why do we have a gender gap? >> well, i think one of the -- erick made this point earlier, as people start to learn more about governor perry, some of the issues that are not very helpful to him with women voters have come to the forefront. namely, the hpv vaccine. for mothers out there with daughters that were forced to have an inoculation, they may see that as something they don't agree with, and something they reject. i also think there's a point where governor romney, many voters have started to gravitate to him, because the overall issue he's focused on has been the economy. and moms, dads, people -- all people who are young, really want this economy fixed, because

that's been a central focus, his electability has been apparent. >> you're chuckling a bit, my friend. >> yes. because, look, clearly it doesn't help to talk about the hpv issue. it doesn't help at all. while you have republicans not happy with the immigration stance, that is exactly what is going to be appealing to latino voters, especially in the western states. so when you talk about colorado, new mexico, arizona, nevada, that's going to be critical. republicans are sitting here upset by it. this is a guy from texas. i can tell you right now, texas is a lot different from georgia and tennessee and alabama, mississippi, louisiana when 2 comes to latinos. republicans may want to start figuring that out. at the end of the day, if you just dis hispanic voters, you stand to lose the west and you're guaranteeing president obama wins re-election. >> so roland is saying that if

you look at governor perry, he's the stronger republican candidate. >> i disagree on that. the suburban voters that win presidential race, philadelphia, columbus, jefferson county out in colorado, they are turned off about his rhetoric and calling social security unconstitutional. i also think that governor perry's position on the immigration issue is not a consensus issue. he's at odds with not only republicans but many independents and democrats when it comes to giving tuition to illegal ail ins. >> so there's no perfect candidate. >> there's never a perfect candidate. >> there's a bigger issue there. >> go ahead. >> there's a bigger issue there. for romney, for example, remember, we've now had a series of -- i've lost track of the number of debates we had. at first you had tim pawlenty and michele bachmann bumping heads and everyone going after those two. one of the advantages that mitt romney has had thus far, is that

they have ignored him in the debates and going after other people. it hasn't come up yet. that's an achilles hill for him. when it starts coming up, we're going to be in november, december, january where people are starting to pay attention. and i like mitt romney, but he's been on basically every side of every modern issue in american history. >> they have focused on it. i think the difference now is that he's much more accustomed to understanding that these attacks are coming and very crisp and clean answers and demanded the issues that they care about. >> i'm going to ask all of you guys to stay with us. before we go to break, i'm going to show you numbers that don't need commentary because they speak for themselves. we asked about governor palin. she peaked in our poll in august, 16% of republicans want her to be the nominee. she's now at 7%. i'm going to say it's a safe bet republicans are beginning to think she's not running and we're going to look elsewhere for candidates and maybe some of

them are tired of her not giving her decision. you're the voters, we'd like you to make it. up next, president obama's blunt advice to some of his closest political allies. part of my job is teaching my patients how to take insulin.

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president obama's on the west coast tonight, part of a swing out that way to raise some money and to promote his economic ideas. among his events today was a

town hall organized with the help of the social network, linkedin. presidents don't get asked this every day. >> i don't have a job, but that's because i've been lucky enough to live in silicon valley for a while and work for a small start-up company down the street here that did quite well. so i'm unemployed by choice. my question is, would you please raise my taxes? >> that small start-up down the road was google, by the way. he did quite well there. that gentleman is a millionaire, if you didn't figure that out this is saturday night at a congressional black caucus dinner. and the president has a question for some who have been critical of his agenda. >> take off your bedroom slippers, put on your marching shoes, shake it off. stop complaining, stop

grumbling, stop crying, we are going to press on. we've got work to do. cbc, god bless you and god bless the united states of america. >> let's pick it up there. with roland martin, kevin madden and erik erickson. who has to stop complaining? >> that's a very good question. the reality is when you look at unemployment at 27% in terms of essentially young folks. actually 40%. it's a huge number. black men as well. so look, as a return on investment, african-americans made it perfectly clear when president obama was elected 96% of the vote. a lot of people say, well, hey, he really can't do certain things, wait for the second term. no second term is guaranteed. it's a question of this administration recognizing that there are some issues with his base. if you look at the washington post last week, those numbers have been falling. the administration says that's okay. things will work out. he needs a dramatic turnout in virginia, in georgia, in north carolina and in florida and those critical states in order

for him to win re-election. he has to shore that base up. he has some work to do. >> let me add ohio and michigan and maybe some others. >> and pennsylvania. >> i want to show our republican friends some numbers here so see what they think of the difference here. this is approval ratings versus favorability rating. this is the president's favorability rating. like anything, it's down from where he started in 2009, but 53% of americans have favorable view of president obama meaning they like him. majority of americans like him. have a favorable view. this is his job approval rating. 45%. you have a gap right there. kevin madden, when you see the president on the road. number one, he's talking about -- you know, rolaned's right about trying to rally the base. but when he's talking about the economic plan are he's trying to bring those closer together and move them up. will voters in november in a close election say, i like him, so i'll vote for him, or does it come down to his favorability we like him, or his job approval rating, we'll give him four more years.

>> those numbers down there, that 45% shows me -- and the fact that his personal attributes still remain above sea level, that this is not personal. this is a performance-based judgment that people are making. right now the performance has to do with the economy. so all of the talk where the president's trying to position himself and wants people to see him as a fighter, they want to see him as somebody that's fighting for the people versus the powerful, almost like the gore campaign in 2000, that's not going to be enough. the only thing that's going to help this president is his performance, whether he can turn around the economy. where he goes wrong on policy is he's still not putting together the policy prescriptions he needs to put the economy in the right direction. >> when kevin makes that point about policy prescriptions, is it just the referendum? we decided no. you think governor perry has to come out with a more detailed plan. is it time now for the republicans to be more detailed, more contrast? or should they worry about their own race and let the president be out there campaigning? >> the republicans to a degree have the benefit of time in that as long as there are so many

candidates and it's so close among several of them and numbers are going up and down. they can paint the democrats with a broadbrush. when reagan got the nomination, jaworski became the head of democrats for reagan saying he would rather a competent radical than an incompetent moderate. jimmy carter had higher personal approval ratings than reagan in 1980 and still lost. >> what jumps out is about ann richards losing to george w. bush in that election. very popular governor. you look at those critical issues. people say we really like her. but he was able to focus on critical issues and talk about leadership. so what president obama has to recognize is people do want to see the level of action, and so the question is will he maintain this attitude and also will we see people on wall street held accountable for their actions as long as people say, we didn't see any result from people who screwed the economy up, they're going to hold him accountable.

and that's something he has to deal with. >> i would agree with roland and i would probably agree with the obama campaign that tells you this is going to be a choice. but fundamentally it will be a contest for the future. the problem for obama right now is he's being judged harshly on the results that people have seen so far. they're not as willing to trust him that the future looks any brighter with his continued policies and his lack of leadership. erick erickson, when you watch -- >> john -- >> go ahead. >> well, roland mentioned ann richards. paul begala has said several times on here, that after she lost, she called bill clinton and told him it's not what he's done for the country but what he's going to do for the country and they've got to believe him. we're at a tipping point where republicans believe barack obama and what he's going to do. >> that's an interesting point. if you watch whether the president's going, he's got the map in mind just like all of us do. >> we're working on the same map.