good morning. welcome, everybody. i'm soledad o'brien and you are watching the very first edition of our special new show, which is called "starting point." we're live here in des moines, iowa, as a cafe, launching our show where every single day

we'll look at big stories. give you interesting details and go inside information, only a worldwide news organization like cnn can bring to you every single day. we're going to talk to the leaders and newsmakers and also real folks and challenge some of the conventional looks and issues people are discussing today. the "starting point" this morning is about changing minds in iowa. just 36 hours before the caucuses begin, and it is a statistical dead heat for first place between presidential candidates mitt romney and ron paul, and that means the race for third is on between rick santorum and rick perry, newt gingrich and michele bachmann as well. the good news for them, more than 40% of iowan voters say their minds could be changed. got some breaking news to get to this morning. police are speaking to a person of interest right now in the los angeles arson spree. even as eight more fires were set overnight, surveillance videotape, show you this, shows the person officers wanted to

speak to. we'll bring you more on this story as more information is coming in to us as well. we also have information on a manhunt under way in washington for a man accused of murdering a mount rainier park ranger. visitors are now being escorted out of the park by police. and in virginia, voters are being told they have to pledge to support the republican nominee, if they want to vote in the republican primaries. they say it's not exactly legally binding. their vote is nobody else's business, so why bother? we'll ask that question as well. hello, everyone. it is another great day in south carolina. >> is it truly another great day in south carolina? lawmakers are haggling over that. that's our "get real" segment coming up in a moment plus joined by some of the country's top political minds. it is going to be a great day. and engaging and very interesting two hours for you. our "starting point" begins right now.

-- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com and welcome from the waveland cafe, you could call it a local hangout in iowa. a diner. a local pit stop for its specialty, the everything hash browns. toe mate oh green peppers, mushrooms, ham, swiss and american cheese. it sound delicious. it cannot be good for you. our "starting point" is one day before the iowa caucuses. it really is all about the folks who are uncertain. here's exactly how the race looks right now. the des moines register poll, historically a reliable poll shows mitt romney in the lead at 24%. behind him, ron paul at 22% and in third, rick santorum at 15%. since the first candidate stepped in to campaign, rick santorum, by the way, and since

then one of the strangest races ever seen. five different leaders since the beginning of the campaign. bachmann leading, perry leading, cain leading and perry leading. with just 36 hours to go before the caucuses begin it could be anyone's game. here's why. 41% of potential caucusgoers could be swayed to vote for another candidate. it's not just the voters who can't make up their minds. top iowa republicans are holding back on endorsements as well. republican governor and representative grassley and representative king uncommitted. will not make an endorsement it is wide open and depends who turns out rcht i haven't seen it with the clarity i want to see. >> you'll end up with three or four people that are going to be between 17 and 23%, and four people can go out of here saying that he have a ticket to new hampshire. >> an endorsement that could

make a difference is one coming from iowa congressman steve king, evangelical christian, member of the tea party caucus. nice to you have and be here in your state, sir. thanks for being with us this morning. explain to my, why all the volatility? what's it about? >> the way to characterize this race, soledad, a series of "king of the him." >> for a minute each time? >> even tim po lawlenty. he got to the straw poll and the morning after decided to pull the plug on his race. he was favored going in and finished, i think, third and pulled out of the race, and michele bachmann won the straw poll. sh she got maybe five minutes, rick perry jumped in in the middle, and the cycle goes on. >> it looks like this. it you're falling. so why? what explains the volatility? >> well, "king of the hill" explains it. if you're at the top of the hill, everybody has to try to pull you down, and your

negatives get illuminated and a lot of scrutiny goes on. if you have five or six people trying to pull you off the hill, eventually they do that, someone else takes the top of the hill. what mitt romney has done, he's hung around. he hasn't actually claimed the top of the hill and decide head was going to own it until about now. >> how much of it is that the voters just feel, ah, about the candidate? there's no real love for somebody really emerging? >> they have been going shopping. look at a candidate and think, i like all of these things about them, but it isn't all the things i want to see in the next president of the united states. so it holds some of them backish and it's true. of course, we don't have a perfect candidate, but we could make a perfect candidate out of the candidates that are there, and that's the difference. there is -- it isn't all embodied in one. >> which would be what? what's the perfect candidate? the what of newt gingrich? the what of mitt romney? >> i go this way. if i want the consummate executive i know the trains will run on time who has an executive office in business and in the

political world, that's mitt romney. he will run the shop and it will be efficient. if you want somebody who understands the full flow of history, how all of government works, not just a smaller executive branch works but all of government, that's newt gingrich. newt gingrich was brilliant and he'll bring a lot of things to the table, and he'll change the game. he is a game-changer. a little risk with a game-changer, but can you do glorious things and ron paul, significant credit for what he's done for constitutional. cutting spending down, through all that. his weak spot is this idea of national defense being, bring all of our military back to the united states. the vacuum, power, created globally would be a calamity that americans would pay for, and we could never recover from such a decision and a president could make that decision unchecked. rick santorum, he's very, very strong on constitutionalism, life and families, and he's very

good and very knowledgeable about the radicalism component in the world. he'd be strong in both of those categories. not as good an understanding of economics. he hasn't lived it the way others have. michele bachmann checks all of the boxes for me. she gets all of these pieces right. >> except -- >> the traction in the campaign is harder, and that's kind of where it stands. >> you going to endorse somebody? >> at this point i haven't made a decision -- >> on our monday morning show? >> it would have been really nice to have had that epiphany and made that endorsement. it has to be a conviction. until then, i'm not able to do that. >> thanks for talking to us. let's bring in our panelists to talk about what the congressman just raised. alex is joining us, republican consultant and simon conway, a radio host. you've interviewed, simon, every

candidate september huntsman who moved on to -- >> snarkiness goes both ways. the candidate himself was also being snarky about your fine state. >> absolutely. apparently he only wants to be president of 49 states. i find that strange. as for congressman king, saving his endorsement for when on my show this afternoon. >> you know that will kill me, if you do that, sir. what congressman king has said, though, is that there is a problem. there is no 100% right candidate. there are a lot of kind of okay candidates, and if you could piece them all together, one great candidate, which ron brownstein you cannot do, is this typical? >> shakespeare? i think actually this race has been obviously volatile. probable more than any other republican race since 1964. volatile that it makes sense in a structured way. proceeding on two tracks. >> really contradictory. >> proceeded down two tracks explaining the volatility.

mitt romney a front-runner, but modest. done well with more moderate, more secular elements of the party. here as nationally, and then you have the other part of the party, tea party activists, evangelical christian side, dubious but not able to settle lastingly on one alternative to him. and the real volatility that half of the party, dubious of romney, cycling through alternatives from huckabee and palin who didn't run. and cain, gingrich and santorum. his advantage, rising very late, clear momentum. i don't any anybody would be surprised if he gets to the top here and almost too late for a candidate convincingry to be made out of iowa. but you still have two separate tracks in the race, and the romney i think, would be very comfortable with an iowa result that sets ub rick santorum rather than rick perry or newt gingrich as the principle alternative for that more

conservative block that remains dubious as a pin. >> how much is a fact in have been so many debates. 13 debates. changing that sort of grass roots feel iowa has always had? you talk about, i want to meet the candidate. they mean literally face-to-face and spend quality time? >> the debates actually pulled that away from the people here. too many, personally. but the scrutiny that goes on in the debates is not really real, because it's all in 30-second sound bites. can you have a conversation, a deep conversation about policy in 30 second sound bites. these are very important issues. as for the perfect candidate, there's never a perfect candidate. barack obama wasn't a perfect candidate four years ago. neither was hillary clinton. you never have a perfect candidate. that's aside, because there is no such thing as a perfect human being. they're still waiting to find one, right? >> the debates are very important. the nationalize the republican process. these don't occur just in

states. they occur on cable tv. they occur on talk radio. and these candidates have gotten better. there isn't a single one of them on the stage that hasn't improved because of this process. tested in a way they'll find useful. >> the candidates become more ready for primetime, but it sounds like, simon is saying it actually sort of added to the confusion certainly for people here in iowa who want to have a conversation? >> simon, one thing to remember is, we haven't had a vote yet. once somebody wins something, guess whats? they become bigger. they become the center of attention. these things do matter. but, look, campaigns don't pick candidates. they make candidates. that's what these contests do. that's what these debates are important for. so it's a little shapeless now. this all changes tuesday, right here. >> debates enormously changed this race. obviously, much more of a national race. smaller staffs here. the cnn casts, but if rick santorum does as well as seems possible it's a throwback.

this was the kind of iowa-specific campaign visiting every county. hundreds of town meetings, kind of like a jimmy carter in the 1970s. still only at 5% nationally in the polls. that was the kind of disparity, the arbitrage that didn't seem possible anymore. voters in the early states of iowa and new hampshire would not settle on a candidate if they didn't seem viable nationally, but rick santorum is, if he does well here, winning this the old-fashioned way. >> i remember rick santorum standing up before a meeting in rock rapids i, iowa, the southwest corner of the state months and months ago. laid it out. this is what i'm going to do. earn this the old-fashioned way. it's what we've seen. i want to add into your comment that these campaigns, and this process, this is a gauntlet they go through. and it does -- >> talks about the willowing out. >> it shapes the candidates and tests them in a lot of ways. can they raise the money? do they have the stamina? can they connect with people? will their ideas withstand the

scrutiny or one thing that knocks them out. it's very personal. >> the issues in iowa issue the nation as a whole sdmept iowa reducing the debt is at top of list and in the nation, the economy generally is at the top. number two is the deficit and number three is health care. are these issues in that order, because iowa -- is iowa doing better than overstates in the nation? >> yeah, iowa's doing belted eb that other states in the nation. unemployment is better. there's a feel about that. on the conservative side, also, we're very much a tea party state, and people have to understand that. the three issues for the tea party are very, very specific. stop spending our mun, balance the budget, cut taxes to create jobs where they can be created. it's simplistic. i don't know why the president isn't onboard with that. it's so obvious. >> you know, it feels this year as though the republican party

broadly defined has settled on their agenda and auditioning candidates to implement it rather than, looking for a candidate to set a direction for the party. some amorphous blend of -- the party knows where it wants to go. that's why so much of the debate has been about who is an authentic conservative? all of the candidates have risen and fallen among that morphed conservative block. inevitably what's happened, one or two things in their record comes up, clashing the group and the whole edifice comes down. a very difficult, being a republican, so far, at the presidential level, to convince the tea party side which starts off skeptical of the republican establishment that you can really trust me. that contributed a lot, really remarkable. six different candidates ahead in the national polls. we haven't seen anything like that in decades. >> i want to bring -- before i let you talk for a second, sir, the editor of thomson reuters

digital and join itus, a remoten new york. look at landscape and the vol tiltingy in the national polls not only here in iowa what we're been talking about. debt is a big issue he in iowa and in the top three nationally. who does that help and who does that hurt? >> soledad, you made an important point about the economy and how it play s slightly different in iowa than the rest of country, a slightly different accent. the fact is that iowa is doing economically relatively well. we're accustomed to these melodramas about the hardships on the family farm, but the truth is that right now, it's great to run a family farm. commodity prices are booming. globalization is terrific for the iowan economy. so i think that means that questions of unemployment, which are figuring more prominently in the rest of country are lower down on the agenda in iowa, and as simon was saying what people

in iowa are really focused on when it comes to the economy, basically not wanting everybody else to put the country in debt, force them potentially in the future to pay higher taxes. >> thanks. we're going to say. >> bye to congressman king who has a busy day. literally sprinting around as you wrap up your last 36 hours or so and you'll let me know when you endorse. >> thank you very much. >> we're going to ask or panelists to stick around as we continue our conversations. our next topic, talking about democrats. going on the attack? used word, more room. and you may be surprised who they're going after. we're going to talk to the dnc coming up. and it might be up to lawmakers to decide. squabbling over a greeting. what's right, what's wrong? we'll let you decide. and tell you about the loyalty pledge that people want you to sign. is that even legal? we'll ask. we're back right after this.

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it's waveland diner you're looking at. we are inside doing our show this morning. welcome to "starting point." i'm soledad o'brien. they're on the attack. opened war rooms in des moines yesterday. a quote. a home base for all rapid response activities. i am not making up that phrase. straight in the democratic national committee, holding news conferences in order to counter republican talking points until january 4th. like yesterday, a man laid off from mitt romney's company bought his employer. the democrats' strategy? joins us to talk about that, communications director for the democratic national committee. thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much. congratulations on the show. >> appreciate it. thank you. why a war room? doesn't that seem a little over the top considering no one's really, really, caucusing for the -- >> we may have useded roth title, but we are very proud of

what the president's campaign has on the ground here. i think when this is said and done you'll see the plaed more organization on the ground here than all of the other campaigns. no matter who wins this caucus on tuesday night. the president's put a campaign on the ground here. we've had 350,000 phone calms, 1,200 meetings, 401 meetinging with is a or theers and are proud of that and here to correct the record. there's a lot of non-republicans here. we're not going to let mitt romney's followers get away without telling the truth. >> you view this as a very good thing for democrats? >> a lot of discussion. we think what we've seen on the ground is counter and a lack of enthusiasm for a republican nominee. they have the flavor of the month. we now have rick santorum. we've had newt gingrich. we've had cain. we've had perry, we've had bachmann and then we've had the flav e of the month and then

mitt romney, if he's a flavor, he's stale. kind of stuck -- >> nice going back and forth on this. who does obama want to win? >> we think in the end the president's record will prevail in the eviction. >> people always say that. >> look, the president will not run against anyone if he had his -- >> who would he choose of the list out there now? >> we're not about to do that, try to puck their nominee. all of them subscribe to the same economphilosophy that got o the mess of 2008. going back to doing what caused the economic collapse. >> what's the campaign's biggest worry? >> the worry here in iowa? >> yeah. what's your biggest concern? your biggest challenge? >> well i don't think we have a concern on our side. we're very happy with what we've put on the ground here in terms of our organization.

and we think that iowa's going to be back in the president's camp. look, we've met with 4,000 people one-on-one. an unprecedented thing. campaigns cut to the quick. they do phone calls, focus groups, polls. we're meeting with people one-on-one and that's a key win for the state. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. coming up, what if it's not a great day in south carolina? some interesting volunteer whose want to outlaw a state mandated greeting. we'll talk about it in our "get real" segment coming up next.

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see that? it says, "lunch specials -- cnn." welcome, everybody. coming to you from the waveland cafe. reporting live our new show "starting point." i'm soledad o'brien. something that seems crazy to me pap new greeting. throw that a little bit. columbia, south carolina is what we're talking about, the capital, pal meadow state. the play so lovely, mandating allstate agency employees, myself included, will answer the phone just like this. >> hello, everyone. it is another great day in south carolina. >> it is another great day in

south carolina. governor haily is doing it because she's proud of south carolina and trying to change the culture of the state. seems some democrats have a problem with this and have filed a pre-bill to make it a crime, no joke. back up. got to get it right. back up a little bit. back up. right there. noting the advantages -- roll back up again so i can see the quote. i want to get it right. don't want to get sued by lawmakers. noting the advantages of or a general -- wrong direction -- keep going. keep going. keep going. they're killing me. here it is. noting the advantages of or a general pleasant demeanor of or general demeanor this state so long as the state's unemployment right is at 5% or higher. all the citizens of the state don't have health insurance and school funding is not sufficient to ensure that all students are

prepared for the 21st century and more. meanwhile, if those things are not in, then they want the greeting. whether you agree people shouldn't be forced to answer the phone a certain way, that might be part of the issue or whether you feel south carolina has big problems. we're asking, is this the best way for legislators to spend their time, haggling over the hello people say they answer the phone. it's this kind of idiocy that has voters telling lawmakers to get real. and still ahead, the hawkeye nation, the first in the nation to pick a nominee to face president obama in november. what that means for the party's nomination. stay with us. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables.

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welcome back to the waveland cafe. some folks joining us early this morning. today republican candidates will make their closing arguments to the voters on the eve of the caucuses. the final pre-caucus poll done by the des moines register shows mitt romney is just ahead of ron paul with a late surge in rick santorum. iowa, of course, the first prize in the republican presidential

race. many question why the state that holds the coveted political position, because iowans tell us they think they know. take a listen. >> iowa should continue in first because it's tradition. i mean, it's always been like this, and it should always be like this. >> it's different than a primary. caucus deals with the grass receipts. deals with people in small rooms like this able to talk 20 candidates, question candidates, so you're getting a broader viewpoint of the electorate, versus a primary system. so that it's a more accurate rendition of what's happening. >> but i think if we don't choose a candidate during our caucus, that is a viable candidate, and guess on to win the nomination i think we will lose some of our importance. i think we really need to take our role seriously and consider who we want to be our nominee. not just who's popular at the moment. >> so how often does iowa select the party's actual nominee?

since 1980, just three times out of six times. that includes george h.w. bush in '80. bob dole in '88 and huckabee who failed to take the nomination. fielding the argument maybe iowa shouldn't be first. until recently the major candidates didn't spend much time in iowa, jon huntsman skipping iowa altogether said they pick corn in iowa, not presidents. kind of a snarky way to put down a state where he's not spending any time. chairman of iowa's republican party. great to see you. >> great to see you. the institution, doll weg. >> and joining everybody for breakfast this morning. why iowa, when you look -- people have said this. you look at the actual demographics of the state. it's not a diverse state. it's 91% white and not really representative of a lot of other competitions that will happen across the country. so why iowa? >> two things. first, we start the process. we don't finish the process. we play the role of widower, not designed to be predictive of the

final outcome, whether the nominee or ultimate victor in the white house but ironic seeing that statement that there are few things our last few presidents of the united states have in common. george w. bush and president obama but their paths started by winning the iowa caucuses. talk about iowa not being popular, the national popular vote the last for presidential elections. piffy comments notwithstanding, i don't think they can prove it accurate when you actually look at the numbers. >> can it be a whittling out process? we'll know tomorrow who's ahead and how it looks. what happens if he leave iowa with four people they consider viable and head into new hampshire that way? isn't that an indication there was no win out of the process? >> governor pawlenty would disnewt and any candidate, if it comes down to four that don't make it beyond iowa. we have a chance to kick the

tires, look a candidate in the eye. size them up. in fact, candidates -- there's been more candidate esflents iowa than any other state. this notion there hasn't been activity in iowa, do the math. more candidate activity kniss cau this caucus season than any other state. >> 20% or more, mitt romney, who's actually not spent that much time, intentionally -- the person who sent a lot of time, rick santorum, until pe got a big endorsement was trailing and michele bachmann who's struggled as well. those are the people going around, meeting everybody, letting them kick their tires. >> you can't understate the mitt romney has not spent a lot of personal time here compared to four year ago. no matter where i went this summer a romney staff person signing up volunteers under the radar perhaps you didn't see because the governor himself was here. i don't think the death of the organized retain campaign's in iowa is completely overblown and you see poll numbers verify when

you see a romney, a santorum, a ron paul, folks with organizations in this state doing well. >> ron brownstein, bring in our panel as well. ron brownstein joins us, a cnn senior political analyst. also editorial of the national journal, kay henderson, radio iowa. thanks for coming in, and a cnn political contributor joining us. nodding your head what matt was saying, it is not the death of what people call retail politics. the face-to-face, hand-to-hand, get to know the candidate? really? 13 debates hasn't changed this? >> no. we're living in a very different way to run for president. gone to the invisible primaries, burrowing into what really is more of a national audition. voters exposed to the same media and those tides are shaping the campaign across the country. having said that, the fact santorum is doing as well as he is is a throwback campaign to

what we saw in the "70s and '80s. you can't see it, but alex sa said -- why say that? ah -- >> the importance of iowa. iowa is not the super bowl but a playoff game for conservatives. this is where the right, the evangelicals, twice at many here as in new hampshire, pick the candidate like santorum. he's run a patient race, let's not give him more credit. he looks like he stepped forward because everyone else stepped back, and i'm not sure that that vindicates retail. just nobody's seen him because he did retail. this is still a media-driven process, not an organizational process. >> who has the most to gain in this? >> obviously, rick santorum. >> he just has to have a good, strong showing? >> right. >> and he is top? >> because a huge debate, coalesce behind one of these

candidate and about asking some candidates to drop out before the item wa caulking were held. obviously that didn't happen. his ability to start the ball rolling and against romney. nice start. >> talking about rick santorum. let's not even talk specifically about him. let's go to michele bachmann. can you have someone, does really well near iowa. people say, ron paul is a great example. some say on the national stage there is a real issue with his -- his appeal to the voters. tara, how much of a problem is that? and doesn't that to some degree bring into question the value of a big stamp of approval from iowa to a candidate who can't really make it nationally? >> well, i think to alex's point, look, conservatives do want to be be able to be heard, and i've said this before. don't want the media selecting a candidate for them, but i think ron paul for all the strengths that he has, in some way has

been brought down a couple of notch it's with recent revelations i think people are realizing that. i think to go beyond iowa, he could capture iowa, because of the strengths that he brings, because it really boils down to, you know, social and fiscal conservatives. all conservatives. all battling who's more conservative. the voters will turn out either on the strong fiscal side favoring ron paul or a more fiscal conservative side faving santorum, to some degree romney. beyond iowa, end the day, it has to carry over into the national campaign and i do think ron paul will have problems for that very reason. i don't think he has the appeal nationally from a more broader standpoint among general republicans. >> there's a reason for that. ron paul is a mixed breed animal. he is one-third republican and two-thirds democrat. when you look at economics, he's simpatico with republicans.

less government. lower taxes. social issue, thinks like a '60s, if it feels good democrat. foreign policy, he's an isolationist democrat. he's got a ceiling in this state. you get closer to the election, why he's sliding. >> take the personalities away from the candidates, look at messages resonating, take a mitt romney or a ron paul. ron paul's ads about cutting $1 trillion spending, shutting down five federal agencies. mitt romney, about the moral responsibility on the debt. it has an impact on the republican debate. >> this year, economics. not foreign policy and -- >> ron paul's ads are by far the best ads this time around. he has one ad that looks like a forward f-150 ad with a very manly narrative. >> exactly. >> the big picture is, final three are ron paul, mitt romney

and rick santorum at the top and the point of view of the romney campaign, the order doesn't matter that much. the key is two candidates will probably have a lower ceiling elevated. not the two, gingrich and perry, who might be a bigger threat down the road. >> i'll ask our panelists to stick around. nice to have you. appreciate it. up next, hollywood comes to iowa. filmmaker matthew modine joins us. have you seen these online? satire, how america governs. and a loyalty oath.

life with crohn's disease is a daily game of "what ifs". what if my stomach pain and cramps come back? what if the plane gets delayed? what if i can't hide my symptoms? what if this takes too long? what if? but what if the most important question is the one you're not asking? what if the underlying cause of your crohn's symptoms is damaging inflammation? for help getting the answers you need visit knowcrohns.com/tv and use the interactive discussion guide to speak with your gastroenterologist.

so you're a republican. why don't you put it in writing? the virginia republican party is now demanding voters sign a loyalty pledge to the eventual gop nominee in order to vote in the march 6th primary. in virginia anybody is allowed to cast their vote in the primary. right now only mitt romney and ron paul, of course, are on the ballied there. republicans are afraid the democrats could make the decision for them. but one republican state delegate, whose nim is robert marshall is asking if this is

the message the party really wants to send. would they have voted in a republican primary that required a loyalty oath when reagan was probably the only republican they would vote for? i doubt it. and our panelists are with us. they join us and contributing for us. nice to have you all. ron, so back up and explain why? what's the why that virginia's doing this? >> look, this is what parties go through. the tension between on the one hand wanting to ensure your nominations are driven by your core supporter that reflect the values and priorities of the supporters and the need to reach beyond that. this kind of a really strange position in a state like virginia, which is emphatically now a purple state. a swing state. you can't win virginia anymore just by mobilizing the

republican base. you have it reach out beyond it to win statewide. you would think they would want to encourage as many to be a part of that process and the takeoff. to be there in the landing and fall. virginia could be one of the handful of states that actually decide the general election. >> so, really, what we thought of virginia so far, frankly, in are other candidates who can't get on the ballot. is this a bigger problem, than the candidates not on the ballied in virginia? >> one of the things that test you is your organizational mobility. one thing we've learned about rick perry's campaign and newt gingrich the campaign is that they can't organize their way out of a paper bag at this point. so if they can't run a campaign, how can they run a country? that's part of the process, is putting a machine together to get you on the ballot, and they failed there. on the other point, too, i think ron made it. parties are in decline. parties have lost so much influence in power. why? guess what? there's competition.

all the super pacs. >> that's what this is about? a scramble for power? >> trying to hold on. this virginia process that is excluded two thirds of the republican candidates from the ballot in virginia, maybe the race will be decided by then, hard to say serving the voters of the state, if you have a process that not only newt gingrich and rick perry also rick santorum and jon huntsman didn't pass, who benefits from ex-cloouding that many candidates? the bigger issue, who controls the nominations? most state limit primaries. there's a cafor a case for broadening. you need to reach beyond your base to reach most states and the most you bring in at the front end, the more exposure you have in the back end. >> are you really wanting to drive your voters crazy? at some point, to me i see analogies with the $5 bank fee. people just get pis schted off.

isn't that a risk? >> it is. i'm a v resident. there are a lot of things to be annoyed at about virginia. the government can be restrictive at time, but at the same time, you know -- look. voters want to be able to ensure their vote is being counted. that's legitimate. and so you want to cover those bases. make sure the people who want to vote can vote, are able to vote. but i think that it is a little invasive to say you have to declare exactly who you are and who you're voting for. you know, i think there's serious issues with that and i think voters are being taxed, but the issue over how virginia goes about allowing a nominee to be on the ballot that is something that's going to have to be revis theed. no matter who's -- who's been this organized this election, whether gingrich, perry, who didn't get on the ballot. a lot of excuses can be made about not being able to get the rules right, as romney said.

when states become restricted and make it so hard, it begins to dilute the process and make voters feel they're being taken for granted and forced to make a decision. you know, by the state. that's wrong. we are going to have to revisit some of that and voters would appreciate that. take it from one virginia voter. >> when you look at iowa -- >> one angry virginia voter. >> yes. >> when you look at iowa, though, what they do in iowa is really exactly the opposite, right? >> right. >> you say you can show up that day. you can vote. >> show up with a driver's license, prove you live in the neighborhood and participate. and to that end, there are democrats who intend to attend the republican caucuses. >> is that a big problem? >> it wasn't a problem for barack obama last time around. he got 80,000 new registrants on caucus day. that's huge. those are people who weren't previously registered in the party. >> we agree that virginia's process is too restrictive and should be changed. would you change your rules in

the middle of the process here? do you think that would be fair to the candidates who did it the right way? they can't do it this time. they should do it for next time >> we'll ask you to stick around. and still ahead, we'll talk politics with actor and film maker matthew modin. he is screening a short film on how america governs.

welcome back to start tart this morning, everybody, as we are coming to you from des moines, iowa. cause celeb this morning, actor and author matthew modin is here this morning. he is screening some short political films, including one called "i think, i thought." take a look. >> hi, my name is joe. and i am a thinker. >> hi, joe. >> i was saved. i had never seen such beautiful people in all my life. these people were my true brothers and sisters. people that understood the foolishness of thinking. >> so this is provocative and also a satire. that certainly was, where were you mocking to some degree the

whole thought process that goes behind the politics in general and the election specifically. >> yes. that particular film was made during the bush administration. and i didn't think there was a lot of thinking going on inure country. so there was a great opportunity for parody, and ironic satire. >> you have done a couple of others as well. >> yeah. >> you have brought those films here to iowa. why? >> well, i was invited. the films have been playing all over the world, in italy and germany and canada. dozens of cities across the united states. wonderful institutions from yale to the society of illustrators in new york city. and they just recently played at dr. oz's -- he has a thing called health corps. and what are you hungry for, is this project that i have there. >> what's the goal with all of these screenings around the country? >> well dr. oz, they felt that people are hungry for ideas. it seems to be missing from the political process in america

today. what are we hungry for? and i don't think that what people are being served up is very satisfying. >> do you think people are being served up sort of the details of the horse race and not sort of the context of why there is this horse race? >> yeah. i mean, i didn't know what caucus really meant before i came to iowa. so i looked it up in the dictionary, and it's an interesting process where people are supposed to get together and share ideas to come to an agreement about how to move forward as a group. and the group pick a leader. and that seems really contrary to what's happening in iowa with these people that are really fighting with one another instead of coming to a consensus about an idea, about how to lead the republican party forward. >> what's been the response of people? you have one that's called "jesus is a comy." >> yeah, was. past tense, yeah. >> and it's very, very interesting. what's been the response? that must send some people just over the top.

>> it's a purposely provocative title. if i called the film "jesus was a capitalist," people would have wondered about that. or if i said "jesus was a nice guy" i don't think anybody would have gone to see it. but it's an important film. it's a very difficult film to sort of summarize in a simple sentence. it's a short film. 15 minutes long. >> and you can see it online? >> you can't see it online yet because there's some rights issues that i have to clear up before. but you can see "i think i thought" and "to kill an american" which is the others i am presenting. >> very provocative, when everyone here is talking about going to the caucuses. nice to see you. >> nice to see you. congratulations. >> thank you. i appreciate that. coming up on "starting point," we are one day away from the iowa caucuses and one candidate is 1,200 miles away. he says he doesn't have any time to spend in a state that picks corn instead of presidents. we'll be joined live by jon huntsman after this break. e to , where they grow america's favorite potatoes.

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good morning. welcome, everybody. we're coming to you live from the waveland cafe. i'm soledad o'brien, and you're firsting the first edition of our new show called "starting point." we're in des moines, iowa. this cafe is where we decided to launch our show, and a place where political folks who are talking about the issues come to talk. here we'll be looking at the big stories, give you some details,

inside information you can't get anywhere else. only a worldwide organization like cnn can bring to you. we're also going to be talking to the leaders, news makers, and real folks, challenging some of the conventional takes of the issues of the day. nice to have you with us. our starting point this morning, one republican who is missing what is happening here in iowa, jon huntsman. he is spending his time in new hampshire this morning. he says iowa is for picking corn, and new hampshire picks presidents. that's a bit san jose sharky. jon huntsman will join us live on "starting point." one word could old the key to outcome of the g.o.p. caucus. and that word is "uncertain." lots of people are still not sold on a particular candidate. we'll ask the question why. according to evangelicals, their vote was crucial in 2008.

but couldi courting them cost candidates nationally? and the department of education in iowa. we'll take a look at what cuts in that area really could mean. good morning. welcome, everybody, from the waveland cafe. it is a local hot spot in des moines, a diner known for being a top political pit stop. and they have a specialty here, called the everything's hash brown, which is everything you can think of in a hash brown, including two kinds of cheese. not very healthy, 10 million calories, but it's a great place to eat. every candidate is here this morning but jon huntsman, who is 1,200 miles away this morning, campaigning in new hampshire. why?

listen to what he told cbs news. >> they pick corn in iowa. they actually pick presidents here in new hampshire. >> a little snarky, huh? well, has that strategy ever paid off? it kind of reminds us of rudy giuliani who put all his eggs in the basket that was florida in 2008. spent all of his advertising dollars in the sunshine state, that was supposed to be rudy country. but by the time the primary got to florida, giuliani was crushed, who placed third with just 15% of the vote. joining us this morning to talk about all of that, we're going to ask the question, is huntsman missing momentum building opportunity by skipping iowa? or could he pull off a shocker in new hampshire? the governor of the hawkeye state says the former utah's governor's strategy is misguided. take a listen. >> he messed up big time. he skipped iowa. and the result is, he is going on -- he is an asterisk and will

never get beyond that. >> that's candy crowley talking to him. so let's speak right now with jon huntsman, joining us live from manchester, new hampshire. thanks for joining us. >> hey, soledad. >> have you regretted the decision you have made to skip this state and go straight to new hampshire? >> no regrets, soledad. you have to lay out your assets and your resources and states where you think you can do best. and the rap on me is that huntsman guy can go on and win the general election. can he do well in some of the early primary states? this is a state that likes to reward underdogs. this is a level playing field where you have republicans, independents, and maybe a few democrats turn out in the primary. and it is a primary. and i think if you work it hard and if you have a message as i do, and if you are willing to do 140, 150 public event and town hall meetings as i have done in this state, i think you're

rewarded for that. we'll let the people turn out and vote in about a week and see what it all means. but i feel pretty good about having come from the margin of error. we came into this state as a complete asterisk, at zero, and now we are bumping into the tea teens. and with the unpredictable nature of the race so far, i think we are positioned pretty well, soledad. >> but, you know, talking about an asterisk, you heard what the governor said about you. no one here is talking about you. literally, it might just be me this morning. doesn't that hurt you ultimately? >> well, that's about to change in about 48 hours. and then the big bright light will be here on new hampshire. and in true fashion, new hampshire always tends to upend conventional wisdom. the pundit class comes into new hampshire, always predicting who will be up and who's going to be down. this state does not like to be told for whom to vote. they don't want the establishment teeing up somebody that they feel they have to vote for. they want the candidates to earn it. so we're proving the point i think in real time here that

politics and successful politics must be earned on the ground. you've got to have a ma'am. and i am passionate about my message. and i think that is what's going to drive us to success here. we've got two deficits we have to deal with in this country for the most important election of my generation. we have an economic deficit that is a cancer that is eating this country alive. and we have a trust deficit in this country. our people no longer trust our institutions of power, and no longer trust our politicians. and i say if we can't get our arms around both of these deficits and do it fast, this country is in real trouble. >> you have offered to match any do nation that comes into your campaign between now and wednesday. do you ever think about all the air time that you would be getting with that kind of a proposal, if you were here? >> listen, we have been getting pretty good air time here in new hampshire. again, i think a day or two following iowa, all eyes are going to be on new hampshire. and all next week, the work that we have done here in new

hampshire i think is going to pay off. and then the people of new hampshire are going to cast a vote. and an interesting thing will happen in a week. they'll look at that ballot box. and all the drama and all the theater of the preseason is going to be behind them. and they're going to look at that ballot box and they're going to say, i actually have to cast a vote for somebody who can be president of the united states of america. there aren't a whole lot of people remaining who can actually be president of the united states of america. they're going to look at that ballot box and say, who has the temperament, the background as a real job creator with real international experience, who's able to bring people together during a deeply divided time, who can deal with the economic deficit and the trust deficit that are so real in this country. and that's when i believe that the people here in new hampshire are going to render a very sensible judgment, which will likely transform the landscape of this race as we have seen in years past. >> all right. governor huntsman, nice to chat

with you this morning. i'm sure we'll be talking again in new hampshire. >> thank you, soledad. happy new year's to you. and congratulations on your new program. >> thank you. i appreciate that. we'll talk more about new hampshire, the strategy, and the wisdom of ignoring iowa. there's john in atlanta for us. here in des moines, our cnn chief political correspondent, candy crowley. and simon conway is back. you have interviewed ineverybod but huntsman. so when you hear him say, they love an underdog but it probably wouldn't be me. that sounds reasonable. >> i was itching to ask him a question, because now he has insulted our state twice, not just once. he called us a preseason. and i wonder how many other states he didn't want to be president of. clearly, he doesn't want to be president here in iowa.

>> but isn't he being strategically intelligent about where to put his money and time where with his position on ethanol subsidies, with his position on other issues, he just would not do well? >> i completely understand that. and that's one thing. that's strategy. that's fine. there's no need to go the extra mile and issue insults to the statement of e state of iowa and the people who live here. that was about as unpresidential as it gets. >> you know, the problem with the strategy too, it's only a week. it's not florida that's a month later, what rudy giuliani did, which was faded from the scene completely from the debate. it's only a week. but imagine what happens after tuesday night. romney gets a bump coming out of here because he's going to finish in the top one or two. santorum will get a bump and ride momentum because he's going to overperform here. for the next two or three days, what's the story going to be in the national media? it's not going to be huntsman. so really has cut his campaign down to two or three days next

week. >> sometimes the candidate sets the strategy, and sometimes, you know, the strategy drives the candidate. and this is a guy who looked at the playing field. he wasn't -- the only thing worse than him not playing in iowa was for him to play in iowa and come in dead last. so he said, look, he started out in florida and said, i'm not doing that well. it's like a game of risk. you put all of your armies in one place and roll the dice. and that's what he's doing. i just don't think he couldn't stet the strategy. it was set for him. >> let me ask john king a question. what does it say that a guy whose economic plan has been praised by the "wall street journal," they said it's as impressive as any to date, better than what we have seen from the other front-runners, which is pretty much a big old kiss from the "wall street journal," is not here because he literally thinks he cannot do well in this state. >> candy made an important point. sometimes the strategy picks the

candidate. sometimes the campaign team has a lot of influence. it's the old mccain campaign, and they don't like iowa. they didn't want him to get caught in the evangelical trap they view as iowa. but they may have miscalculated. their calculation was that romney would stumble, that iowa would hurt mitt romney going into the state where he would have the most strength. if the polls are right and romney comes out with a bounce, you may have a giant miscalculation on the part of the huntsman people. however, their calculation is this. the conservative base of the party will still look for an alternative to mitt romney after iowa, even if iowa embraces mitt romney, even if new hampshire begins to embrace mitt romney, that some conservative challenger must emerge and that he is not knicked up like newt gingrich and rick perry. it is a longer than long shot, but that's their hope. >> and that's one of the problems for huntsman. i think huntsman also had a

strategic problem if that we never figured out which playoff game he wanted to play in. is he competing for the anti-romney conservatives? he is a conservative governor from utah. is he competing to be the romney space in new hampshire? sometimes being everything to everyone is the same thing as being nothing to everyone. >> well, and his primary presentation was i'm a guy, i'm a moderate that can get along with people. yes, i was the president's pick for ambassador to china. that means i can get along with people. in a primary where they really don't want to get along with democrats. so he was -- you know, wrong guy, wrong time, certainly in iowa. not looking that great in new hampshire. but i just don't think there was any other place for him to go. this has to be his -- where he rolls the dice. >> i'll ask to you stick around, and we'll bring in a conversation about these last-minute deciders really connected to the volatility of the race. look at that sign, sign, sign,

everywhere a sign. that certainly was the case four years ago in iowa during the run-up to the 2008 caucus, where people were showing their support for a candidate with the front yard sign. there was john edwards, hillary clinton. this caucus, it looks a lot different. this poll says 41% of caucus goers could still change their mind, which could explain the lack of signs. three weeks ago, the only thing on display in this neighborhood is a wreath. no signs. we thought for sure we'd see a couple of campaign signs at least somewhere. but look at this. nothing. nothing, nothing. and it actually is something that lots of locals in iowa will talk about. just days before the caucus, there are not that many signs, which is not unusual from what we've seen in our travels around iowa. which is why when we spotted this sign, 21 signs for rick santorum, we thought we had to stop. the homeowner is pete quinn. he says he was the first in his west des moines neighborhood to

throw support behind a candidate. that was two months ago. and he expected his neighbors to follow suit. listen. >> it really surprised me, because i know that iowans take their caucus process very seriously. and it's great. civil responsibility. and it's the american exceptionalism and all of that. so i was really looking forward to it. i'm kind of like, hmm, i guess i seem to be an island in the drift. >> island in the drift. that's such a bad, bad thing when you're talking about the day before an election potentially. why is he, candy crowley, the island in the drift? >> ordinarily, if i saw a poll with this high a number of undecideds close to a normal election, is what we say, not a caucus, i would say this is baloney. people are saying i'm keeping my mind open, but really they have already decided. here is the deal about these caucuses. people are with their neighbors basically. they know the people inside these caucuses, many of them.

so when your neighbor gets up and says, i have 21 rick santorum signs and i want to talk to you about rick santorum, you're listening to him. maybe you went in thinking, but mitt romney is the only one you can win. and the neighbor says just that right sentence. you know him. he is an honest guy. you really can persuade people inside caucuses in a way the undecided vote doesn't mean that much in an untraditional election. in a caucus, it really does mean they are persuadable. >> one of the things when you're in a campaign as a political professional and you see numbers like this, 41% of the people undecided this late, sometimes people telling you they are undecided doesn't mean they are undecided. it means they are passionless. they haven't fallen in love with anyone. it means low turnout. it means they may not show up to vote. >> and yet all the expectations that we are hearing is that this is actually going to be a high turnout. are we looking at 118,000 four years ago. and some predictions i have seen go as high as 150,000. so if it's a lack of passion, why those numbers?

>> my question is, what's changed since the straw poll? the straw poll was huge. massive turnout. people were turning up at the gates of the straw poll and paying money to get in. this is unheard of. >> what's changed? >> what i think is happening, i think when you look at -- when you look at the personal attributes that people apply to these candidates, where does mitt romney sell, electability? and iowans really want to vote their heart. i like that rick santorum. he believes what i believe. i want him to be president. on the other hand, this is a party that's been out of office for four years. and more than their head says to them we need the guy that can actually beat president obama. so i think there's a struggle going on between my heart is with this guy, but my head tells me mitt romney. >> i think so too. and you can have great passion but not a lot of bread. george mcgovern and barry goldwater's had a lot of intensity. people showed up at straw polls. but turnout was low. they are small but powerful.

we may see that here. the evangelical vote was huge in 2008. this year's gop field is working very hard for the evangelical vote again, some people say working too hard. we'll look at that in just a moment. i don't want healthy skin for a day.

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welcome back, everybody. you're looking at pictures of the waveland cafe, which is where we are hanging out having breakfast with the locals this morning. the gop candidates have been working overtime to try and court the evangelical vote, and for good reason. back in 2008, evangelicals accounted for 80% of caucus goers and it catapulted mike huckabee to a first place finish in iowa.

but only one in three caucus goers this time will be evangelical christians. that's a far cry from the 60% turnout in 2008. let's talk about that with jennifer bowen, the executive director of iowa right to life. jennifer, let's start with you. what do you think distinguishes these candidates right now on their position on abortion? >> they are absolute champions, several of them, absolute champions on the issue of life. they speak the language. they know what's important. and they are just -- they -- >> you feel like they are speaking with conviction? >> absolutely. >> so how come no endorsement from you? i would imagine that could really help a struggling campaign. >> it could. but we have discovered that it's absolutely beneficial to them as well, because we haven't ruled anybody out. we are in support of all pro-life candidates. we are able to speak on behalf of all of them that are

pro-life. we haven't ruled anybody out. >> when you gave your personal endorsement of rick santorum, you sent him skyrocketing up -- you did. you can laugh, but you did. and yet the family leader, your organization, hasn't been able to endorse someone. how should we read that? why not? >> well, a couple of things. we are working on jennifer's endorsement of rick santorum as well. but the family leader decided they are a standard bearer, not a king maker. but our board is unanimous in their support of rick santorum. but we said let's have individuals and let them personally endorse them and keep our organization at bay. >> why would you want to do that? why keep an organization at bay when you can say, listen, everybody on our board likes rick santorum. >> basically, we have done that. but we have thousands of supporters of the family leader. not all of them will say we love rick santorum. so we're going to be a standard bearer in regards to issues, but also go out and endorse rick n

santorum as a candidate. >> is that an indication that the social issues have really split? >> absolutely. >> if you're worried about alienating some people that are -- >> absolutely not. i have seen more positive things happen in this campaign for the pro family movement, the pro-life movement, with these candidates in a year that was supposed to be dominated by the economy, which is a family issue. we have seen the life issue advance. the marriage issue advance. the appointment of justice advance. >> why are we going to see so many fewer evangelical christians coming out? of course, this is all estimates because this hasn't happened yet. but the estimates look like instead of 60% coming to rally behind mike huckabee back in 2008, it might be like more 30% to 40%. why the drop? that's a pretty steep drop. >> i don't know that that's what we're going to see. i have talked to people literally across the state, from city to city. and i don't think that we're going to see a drop. i think that we have people that

are angry about what's going on in our country. i think that we have people that are passionate. and i think we'll see an incredible turnout tomorrow night. >> the people of faith are still going to have an incredible influence on this caucus. four years ago, you had mike huckabee, a former governor and baptist minister. i think that the evangelical christians are tired of being tagged as evangelical christians. they are true conservatives. they are concerned about the economy, about national policy. >> but much more interested in social issues as well, whereas some people are really focused on economic conservatism may not have the same feelings. >> i think what it is, people are trying to fragment people, and they are tired of the labels. are you they party conservative, a fiscal conservative? they say wait a minute. i'm a conservative. either you're a genuine conservative or you're not. >> we'll continue to talk about evangelicals and also mormons as well when we speak to the iowa secretary of state after the break, matthew schultz. he has endorsed rick santorum. he is a mormon.

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matthew modine decided to stay for breakfast. there he is, in the waveland cafe where they are serving up breakfast for everybody. welcome back. mitt romney has seen some positive movement in the recent iowa polls, changes in his schedule are showing a little bit of confidence on his part. in the past, his mormon faith has proved to be a hurdle for some voters. and while many iowans simply do not consider religion at all in voting, the fact remains that many do. and the ones who do have a

powerful organization. joining us to talk about that is iowa's secretary of state. his name is matthew schultz. he has endorsed santorum in this race. also happens to be a mormon. nice to see you. >> nice to see you too. >> you endorsed mitt romney back in 2008. this time around, rick santorum. why? >> in 2008, i took at time to look at every candidate, meet them, see what they stood for. and, you know, this time, there are different issues. different people. and i felt like rick santorum -- >> but he is the same person. >> but rick santorum wasn't in the race four years ago, and things have changed in our country. i was really looking for somebody that is a really strong conservative who also didn't shy away from family values. those things are important to me. >> do you think that mitt romney's religion is an issue and going to continue to be an issue in this race? >> you know, who knows? i think that at least in iowa, i don't think it is an issue. i was elected in a very competitive primary being a mormon. and i think iowans look at issues and what people stand for, look at their track record.

and they judge them accordingly. there are always people who are going to judge people based on race, religion, and creed. but i think there's a very, very small minority. i don't think it will have an impact. i think they are really looking at the individual. >> you talk about a small percentage. the percentage of mormons in the state is very, very small. was your religion as a mormon an issue in any way, shape, or form during your election? >> it wasn't something that was talked about that much. but certainly people asked me questions about it. so in terms of whether there was interest around it, yeah, people asked questions. but it wasn't a campaign theme. >> what happens if the man that you're backing, rick santorum, doesn't even make it into the top three? >> that's not going to happen. >> hypothetically, go out on a limb with me, what if it does? >> we'll see. i think he'll outperform expectations. i think he's going to finish in the top three. it's just a question of where. and if he doesn't, then everybody will re-evaluate. but i think even if he finishes third, rick santorum is the story of tuesday.

>> matthew schultz, nice to have you. thanks for talking with us. we'll see if that's the case. still to come, the first test of the 2012 election season is just a day away. polls are showing that mitt romney is ahead in iowa, but can he really hold on to that lead? we'll check in with a romney supporter, congresswoman erin shock. i want healthy skin for life. [ female announcer ] improve the health of your skin with aveeno daily moisturizing lotion. the natural oatmeal formula improves skin's health in one day, with significant improvement in 2 weeks. i found a moisturizer for life. [ female announcer ] only from aveeno.

welcome back, everybody. i'm soledad o'brien, and you're watching my new show, called "starting point." we are live this morning at the waveland cafe in des moines, iowa. coming up in the next half hour, it is caucus eve. voters here can't take a step without hearing a campaign pitch. and close to half of likely voters say they are still thinking about changing their minds. republican candidates are promising to close the federal department of education. an idea that many voters here in iowa like. we'll talk about what's at risk there. and something presidential candidates as far back as ronald reagan have wanted to do, close the d.o.e. but what could happen to kids who rely on the billions of dollars that the d.o.e. hands snout we'll look at that. we begin, though, with the tightening race here in iowa. mitt romney is on top, but ron paul and rick santorum are in striking distance, so it's still anyone's game, especially when one poll found that nearly 40% of the caucus goers could be swayed to vote for another

candidate. that statistic includes iowa congressman steve king. i spoke to him in our last hour. he is still weighing his endorsement. listen. >> i would have been really nice if i could have woken up this morning and had that epiphany and been able to make that endorsement. i said it has to be a conviction. and unless until a conviction comes, i'm not going to be able to do that. >> well, there's one man who has made his choice, congressman aaron schock. he spent some time on the campaign trail with mitt romney, and is joining us now. nice to have you. >> good morning, soledad. >> good morning to you. so mitt romney came in it couse place in 2008. shouldn't this now, four years later, with a good organization in place, be a walk for him? and it's not been? >> well, absolutely not. we have got a field of very good candidates.

and mitt really has -- governor romney has really put together a national campaign. which distinguishes him in addition to his qualifications to be the candidate and ultimately to be the next president of the united states is his kwqualifications in organization. there's no one that has the fundraising prowess and organization in every state, not just the first or second one, to take it all the way, win the nomination, and ultimately has the organization to beat president obama. what you're seeing with the cnn poll last week, soledad, it was interesting. i was actually on the bus with mitt last week when the cnn poll came out. and it was the first poll in the nation that showed mitt romney leading the pack for the first time in iowa this year. and so that was less than a week ago. and now the political pundits are saying, gee, you know, what if he doesn't win iowa and so on. mitt romney is doing extremely well in that state. that state -- the state of iowa has had more candidates in the

state meeting and greeting its voters for the better part of this year. and as you pointed out earlier, iowans are now for the first timie making up their mind on wo they are voting for, and that is proving to be very well for mitt romney in these final few days. >> what's a win for him and what's a loss for him? if rick santorum beats him here in iowa tomorrow night, is that a big loss? >> well, absolutely not. look, mitt romney wants to win in every state in the country. mitt romney doesn't have to win in every state in the country. as i mentioned earlier, he's got an organization that is doing extremely well in every one of these states. he's significantly ahead in the state of new hampshire. he wasn't expected a week ago to win iowa. now he is number one in the polls. if he comes in number one or number two in the top three, that will be a strong showing for mitt romney. and he will go on and do very well in new hampshire. >> representative aaron schock is a republican from illinois.

nice to have you, sir. thank you for talking with us. we appreciate it. now back to our political panel. we have cnn's chief national correspondent john king, host of "state of the union" candy crowley. john brown, senior political analyst and editorial director of the national. your titles are getting way too long. and allen is joining us as well. a republican consultant and cnn political contributor. he said something interesting. he is sort of gloating about how his candidate is now the front-runner, but first, second, or third will be fine. is that a contradictory statement? kantd candy, why don't you start. >> it depends on who he is third to. if he is third to rick santorum or rick santorum and ron paul, that's ok, because they don't think they are viable. that's ok with mitt romney, because they don't knowledge that either santorum or ron paul have the wherewithal to move much beyond iowa. they'll be there, but they are

living off the land and all that kind of stuff. but i think who can't they lose to? newt gingrich or rick perry who both can raise money pretty quickly. >> i feel like we are watching something like a 2010 when harry reid and his allies picked their opponent. they wanted sharon engel. romney forces here have gone after newt gingrich. attacked rick perry heavily. they haven't really raised a glove at ron paul or rick santorum for the same reasons. they are much more comfortable with a race that goes forward out of here with santorum and paul elevated, and gingrich and perry suppressed. now, santorum probably has a potential to grow into a broader threat than paul. but it is still a big climb for santorum to go from where he is nationally, 5%, to really emerge as a full-scale national challenger. >> john, what's mitt romney doing right? one of the things that we heard was that he sort of held back

from that first place, right? he has tried to stay out of the limelight a little bit, i guess, as a protection measure. but what has he done lately right that is helping him have this lead in the polls? it is just hitting gingrich hard, that strike first before others strike you? >> well, there is gravity. what goes up in this caucus has gone up. herman cain went up. rick perry went up. they have all come down. mitt romney has been steady. he has grown a bit. part of it is he was humiliated four years ago. he spent $10 million in iowa, lost to mike huckabee and collapsed in new hampshire. the benefit this time is that he has that network in iowa. so he came in late, but he does have a network on the ground. the question is, can he win. and as you make that point, if he came in third, the question is not paul and santorum aren't considered nationally viable. but if he came in third, would that shock new hampshire? back to the huntsman conversation we were having earlier. would the people of new hampshire say, not again, and would it rejiger the polling in new hampshire. that's the concern for mitt

romney if you fall into third place. but santorum for me is the biggest issue and the biggest question. i was talking to iowa people this morning who said don't pigeon hole him as the evangelical candidate. he is beginning to grow in the suburbs. so watch today. it's the last day for anyone to do. start talking to iowa republicans. are they getting robo calls from the perry or other campaigns attacking santorum and romney. those are the things to look for in the final 24 hours as everybody tries to take the guys on the top down a couple of notches. >> i think he just nailed it, the big story coming out of here. and that could worry the romney people. and that does santorum become bigger than he is now? michele bachmann, straw poll wins, doesn't use that night, that great moment on the national stage, to go to the next level, to say, hey, here's what i can do about the economy. if rick santorum, the most important 10 minutes of his life will be tuesday night. if he just remains an evangelical conservative and he starts talking about south carolina and lets the media trap

him into debating social issues, he's cooked. if he says, i'm going to new hampshire, i want to talk about the economy, the single most important issue in this country, i want to talk about manufacturing in pittsburgh and how to get this thing going again, he can grow from here. he's got 10 minutes to do it tuesday night. and it means everything to him. >> and he is a much more -- he is slowly turning into a blue collar kind of candidate, very much so. >> making himself a national candidate? >> yes. and a candidate that moves beyond evangelical and abortion issues, stem cell issues, to blue collar working class. >> there is a demographic opening there. the republican electorate is different than it used to be. in 2008, half of the voters did not have college educations. it's i much more blue collar party. mitt romney has always run better upscale than down scale. he has done better with college educated voters in 2008 and most of polling this year. so there is an opening there, if

santorum as alex says can expand beyond kind of the social issue focus. and he does have an economic message center the on manufacturing. making things in america. >> that could be an interesting niche to carve out, because it's really missing. >> exactly. >> as you guys have said 26 times in the last two minutes, if, if, if, if and if. most iowans agree that the election will be about the economy. and some cuts they want to see is in the department of education. is that a good idea? we'll ask steve perry just ahead. did i'd race down that hill without a helmet.

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welcome back, everybody. you're looking at the outside and now the inside of the waveland cafe, which is where we are. the most important issue to iowa's caucus goers is reducing massive government debt, but where to cut spending? a recent poll says that 54% want the department of education dissolved.

iowa does pretty lewhen it comes to educating its children. they have one of the best graduation rates in the nation. 88% of students graduating in four years. that's very high. and their high school dropout rate is 3.4%, which is about the national average. so what would happen to those numbers if we eliminated the department of education? joining us this morning to talk about that is cnn's education contributor steve perry. founder of the capital prep tory magnet school. nice to see you, steve. why is this popular? not only here in iowa, where it's pretty popular, but across the country some people are pushing for the dissolution of the department of education. why? >> because the department of education has quite a lot of resources. it's the third largest cabinet level department. when people think of the size of it, they are often afraid of it. they don't realize, however, the breadth of the resources that are used. it's not just no child left

behind or race to the top. but it's pre-k all the way up to graduate school. because the department does a number of things. listen, i am the most anti-bureaucratic guy you're going to meet. i am not in favor of anybody making my job more difficult as a principal. however, as somebody who sends my kids to college, i need someone to provide me with g.i. bills and other services. there are a lot of services they provide with just 4,300 employees. in fact, to put that in some relative perspective, the department of education is smaller than the employee base of espn. >> which is an apples to nothing comparison. >> no. because you look at the total number of people who do one job, they have $900 billion that they have to oversee. >> no disrespect to my friend at espn. i've got you. but the question would be really what happens to the title i

funds, right? is the idea that the title i aid to low income students, that if you're going to dissolve the department of education, you repeal title i? >> you would repeal it or somebody would have to provide those services locally. the expectation is that we have children who are in need. and the federal government says that those children across the country deserve access to quality education. that's what title i does. it's supposed to provide supplemental services to those children in their area schools. in my school, we receive funds to provide academic support to our children. removing those services would remove the services. removing the money would remove the services, meaning ultimately that our children don't have tutoring, they don't have parent support, they don't have a number of essential supports that we work with, especially in urban school centers. now maybe in iowa, they don't have some of the same challenges that we do in many of the places where you have quite a large urban population. but we do in hartford, and in many other parts of the country.

so we actually need the services that are provided by the department of education, even if they are not always as efficient as we'd like them to be. >> some people have said who would be on the side of dissolving the department of education, you don't need a national yardstick. you can just have states be the yardstick, right? >> they're wrong. >> why are they wrong? >> they are wrong, because a child in mississippi should get the same education as a child -- >> why? >> because a child in mississippi should get the same education as a child in massachusetts. if a child in this country is going to be seen as having the same rights, they should have the same rights to the same education. a child in one community should not be limited to their access to education because of their zip code. we need a national watch dog. the department of education does not determine what we teach and how we teach in the schools. but they can say if i give you this money, it should be on par with the others throughout the rest of the country. when we are a country that sees that all children are valuable, we see that their needs to be a

national yardstick by which all schools are measured. and right now, unfortunately, there isn't even one. even with the race to the top and now the president's flexibility measures, there are going to be more and more districts allowed off the hook. but no child left behind was the first honest conversation this country had around accountability, and maintaining high standards for all children. that's a policy that came through the department of education but was not the department of education's policy. it was a presidential and congressional policy, it was a law. >> steve perry joining us this morning. thanks, steve. appreciate it. one of the big stories out of iowa is the race for third place. michele bachmann, rick perry, newt gingrich are spending and spending and spending hoping to get into that top three. but what does being in the top three actually buy you? find out when we reveal our answer, up next. they're high in vitamins and potassium.

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welcome back to "starting point." we are inside the waveland cafe about to wrap up our show. and it's time for the reveal. we'll tell you something that might have you questioning the conventional truth. while iowa may not be known exactly for picking winners, it does winnow out the contenders. if you finish in the top three, and you're a shoe in to continue in the race, then rick santorum has spent an absolute ton of money. a little more 245than $1 millio running for president. rick perry, more than $ million. newt gingrich, $2.5 million. michele bachmann, a whopping $6 million.

so you might wonder to yourself, historically, what do you get for all that time, all that money, and all that effort just to come in third? so here is the reveal. first for the democrats, 2008, hillary clinton came in third. she went on to become president obama's secretary of state. pretty good deal. 2004, howard dean's famous scream post iowa sunk his campaign but he went on to become the chairman of the dnc. on the republican side, fred thompson got a radio talk show. alan keyes got his own cable news show. 1996, lamar alexander's finish led to work as an adviser for eventual nominee bob dole. not until 1988 again we see eventual nominee and president george w. bush placing third. so is it worth it? only the candidates know the answer to that for sure. in our final moments, after the break, we'll tell you what we've learned on "starting point" today.

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we have reached the final moments to hear some final points from our panelists. let's start with john king. hey, john. >> soledad, look in the next 24 hours, ask republicans out there, what are you hearing on the phone? are you getting robo calls to trash the candidates? and the big challenge here, win, place, and show. three tickets out of iowa. or will there be four?

we'll have a great 24 hours here. >> you just loaf this stuff. candy crowley, you love it as well. >> picking up on what john said, absolutely watch that third position. fourth and even fifth, watch how close they are. if they are separate bd by a point, south carolina will earn its name as the republican fire wall. >> the biggest story in the republican race has been something that hasn't happened, the right hasn't coalesced around one candidate. the big question in iowa is whether it produces a viable national alternative to romney. if it doesn't, he is the wish here. >> he is right. romney could win this thing with fewer votes than he lost with last time if the right stays divided. but watch ron paul. if he tumbles to third place, he may not have enough money left to do negative ads and attack romney. ron paul, weak showing, good news for romney.