recently i got the opportunity to chat with eric schmidt of google. he told me humans shouldn't have to remember anything. that's for computers. maybe he's right. just because something is right or easy doesn't mean it is fun. people use gps to get to the grocery store in their home town. i wonder if we're giving up our mind to navigate to computers and whether we're letting our mind goes to mush. destination suggestions welcome via @erinburnett on twitter. erin, thanks very much. good evening, everyone. we're live from a very chilly night here in des moines, iowa. welcome to this edition of "360." the eve of election 2012. the first of the caucuses here. it starts being hypothetical and starts to count. republicans will choose candidates after a campaign

where a few of them that you see here and a few you don't may soon become the front-runner. after tomorrow night that could change. some of these boxes may soon be empty. politico's roger simon said the best, iowa caucuses don't pick winners, they pick losers. they could continue on from here even if they don't place well. a loser here could take new hampshire, someone could win south carolina or another win florida. it's been that kind of campaign. the polls here reflect it. take a look. the des moines register. mitt romney and ron paul in a statistical tie. rick santorum close behind. michele bachmann in single digits tonight. this one showing romney out in front. paul, santorum and gingrich essentially tied for second place. it won't be dull and every move matters.

at this stage in the race there's no room for error. >> a wide open race. people have been watching the debates, and they're looking for the perfect candidate. >> mitt romney leading in the national polls all but ignoring iowa, though, until the last few weeks. his late focus might be paying off. keeping expectations low but a win a real possibility. >> this president's failed. he went on the "today" show shortly after being inaugurated. he said if i can't get this economy turned around in three years i'll be looking at a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. we're going to take it back. >> ron paul is hoping to hold on to the momentum he's built here. the texas congressman spent the last ten days fighting back against questions about controversial newsletters with his name on them. mr. paul's supporters are among the most dedicated in iowa. >> if liberty is the most important issue, the most important responsibility of government is to protect liberty

and not to be the policeman of the world and not to have a runaway welfare state. >> but if anyone has the momentum in these final days, it's former pennsylvania senator rick santorum. senator santorum has spent months here in iowa. he's shifted all 99 counties and held more than 350 events. his small staff in des moines are working the phones. they're trying to capitalize on his sudden surge, trying to ensure that santorum supporters actually show up to caucuses. >> i'm asking you to not settle for someone who, as your nominee, who might be able to win the election, but the election would be a pyrrhic victory. in other words, we wouldn't have a candidate who is going to be elected president who will do what's necessary of what america needs. >> santorum's surge comes mostly from evangelicals and has taken away from of the traction newt

gingrich had been enjoying. leading the stage just a month ago but relentless attacks from his opponents seemingly having an effect. >> we're getting into a sick system where people with lots of money run very vicious commercial. it is sickening the whole process. >> it's been a volatile race wr tos with various candidates jumping to the lead only to fade weeks later. michele bachmann who won the ames straw poll months ago today seems far back in the pack. the same for governor rick perry, hoping for a last-minute push in a caucus that can be as unpredictable as this race so far. of course, what happens here in iowa matters but it also doesn't matter. think back to 2008, it was mike huckabee who won here in the state and the gop caucuses back then. rick santorum has been comparing himself to mike huckabee, surging in the polls over the last few days. the des moines register poll was taken, in the last days that his numbers began to significantly

increase. again, it all remains up to who actually comes out, who goes to those caucuses tomorrow night. and santorum is trying to get as many people, his hard core supporters to attend those events. traditionally a lot may depend on the weather. let's take a look back at 2008 and the field this year. john king, host of "john king usa" is standing by. for santorum to be saying he could be like huckabee, that's good for iowa, doesn't mean he has life beyond. >> it would make him at the moment the conservative alternative to mitt romney. that's what santorum wants us to be saying this time tomorrow night. but let's look at the republican caucus. if you look at this, this is mike huckabee, all this orange in the middle. if we see senator santorum filling in this part of the state tomorrow, that means he could be on his way to victory. this is conservative christian evangelical voter. they were the core of the huckabee campaign four years ago.

mitt romney had 25%. he won here in the eastern part, davenport, cedar rapids and dubuque. he won out here in the west. this is the key area to watch for romney tomorrow night. if romney is doing well out here again, then he could be on the way to winning iowa. the big question is can he keep these conservative voters? this is evangelical country. one thing we don't know is this is the first presidential election where we know the tea party is a force in the republican party. the darker the color, darker green or almost black, these are areas of iowa where voters say i identify with the tea party. a lot of evangelical voters here four years ago, a lot of tea party voters in these areas as well. do they come together around one candidate or are they fractured, are they split? that's what mitt romney is hoping for. another quick point i want to make. candidate visits often make the difference in iowa, yet mitt romney, that's his color, he's been in iowa the least. rick santorum, he's the candidate who has visited all 99

counties. which one of them will emerge tomorrow night. the old fashioned way, hand touch everybody retail or the mitt romney way, relying on support. this tv ad count. governor rick perry, who is struggling, actually up to today this is his color, bought the most ads in iowa. will that work for him? romney and gingrich roughly in second there. the key question, i want to go back to that initial graphic i had, the key question is this. can the evangelical voters come together, will they come together around one candidate or will it be split between santorum, perry, bachmann, even ron paul? if there's a fractured evangelical vote, romney benefits, if the evangelical vote coalesces santorum not only could do strong, some think, anderson, he could even win. >> john, appreciate it. fascinating. we'll talk to you again shortly. i want to bring in our political panel who are braving the icy temperatures. donna brazile, erick erickson

and mary matalin. just a fascinating down to the wire as it often is. what do you think is behind this santorum surge? in that des moines register poll, over the days they were polling, it really is in the last two days that his numbers increased. >> honestly, the cnn poll is behind the santorum surge. i talked to a lot of campaigns and pollsters who say they saw crowds growing at his events but after the cnn poll it spiked up dramatically and other campaigns and their tracking polls didn't see it spiking until after the poll. part of it is psychosomatic. people see the last guy not to implode suddenly seems viable. >> is that part of it, that he's the last guy who hasn't been a front-runner and hasn't had the attack ads against him? >> you ask charlie cook who is, by all equations, the best of the handicappers, says that he's the remainder man. people on the ground here in the campaign say the surge has stopped. and he has -- he had problems

coming in and those problems will come out. so the typical -- nothing's typical this year, but the late surge or the fluidity typically goes to the late surger, but he's really not surging, according to people on the ground, any more. so it's, you know, we're still going down to the wire. >> donna, if you were mitt romney, you don't mind santorum surge in iowa. keeps the conservative field divided. >> that's right. rick santorum has campaigned in all 99 counties. he's probably identified people who will go to the caucuses tomorrow night, stand up, serve as his surrogate. so i think there's something real behind this momentum only because the problems are still sorting it out and they're looking for an alternative to romney. right now santorum is the flavor of the week. >> how much does organization matter here in this final 24 hours? getting the people to actually go to the caucuses -- i was over at santorum's headquarters and

there were very young people on the phones. >> it used to be us. >> the nontraditional campaigns, the cain campaign, the gingrich campaign thought that doing tours on national media would urge people to go to the poll. now we have people saying we need to have a ground game in a way that santorum nor gingrich have had the money, time or resource to do. >> the caucuses, it is not about people going in and voting, you have people talking about the candidates and the better organized field actually send in people. >> it's necessary if it's closing in a tie because organization will make the difference. but sufficiently requires momentum. and it's not showing in the polls, the opposite is showing. romney has more momentum here than is being reflected in the polls. momentum plus organization i think is the equation. >> you think romney will win? >> it doesn't matter if he

doesn't and paul and santorum or the victors. but he'll do better than expected especially given the fact that he didn't play here till late. >> but he ran before. he had an organization in place. remember, independents can go tomorrow to the republican caucus, sign a form, register and declare their support for romney. >> democrats can go to the reregister. >> and they can go for paul, which is the wild card factor. >> what are you hoping for tonight, as an obama supporter, what are you hoping for? >> obama has people on the ground. they're organizing for the democratic caucus. he's got to win the democratic nomination. he's on you posed. i hope that the obama campaign will organize to show that they'll be ready to win the state -- >> so the democrats that are here and the obama campaign has sent people here. they have their own war room set up i read in the "times" today. who has the best organization on the ground? >> they'll look for signs of life from some of the other

candidates. the anti-romney, is perry still alive? but their focus is on mitt romney because they think he has momentum, he has the money to go beyond the iowa caucus. >> the polls show he's the one most capable of and beating president obama at this point. >> well, that's just a theory. but we'll see. >> it has a lot to do with name i.d. as well. >> some of these candidates can kind of forage off the land. they don't need a big organization to stay in the race. >> this is different from prior years. we keep treating iowa as the super bowl and this is preseason this year. proportional delegations. you will only get ten delegates out of new hampshire and iowa, you'll get 75 out of california and florida. you have some states in april that are 400 and 500. >> the significance of that is that it could be a very long race. >> you can drag this out. after barack obama people thought he'd be the nominee in 2008, you had kentucky, west virginia, a number of states

that all went for hillary clinton. he still got the nomination but it dragged it out. >> we're different. as much as the process is different, we don't know because we've never had front-loaded proportionali proportionality. we're still republicans and we still like order. if it gets to florida and romney is knocking it out, it will be very difficult for the other contenders to -- >> there will be no money. >> it could essentially be over tomorrow if romney has a -- >> if it's a blowout. >> if it's a blowout. but erick is absolutely right, you you have a situation on the republican side where the bulk of the delegates will not be chosen until mafrm of april. it could play itself out. you need an alternative to romney and then the conservatives have to get behind one candidate. >> obama and hillary were evenly matched. this will separate the men from the boys. >> we still have a woman in the race. >> we'll check back with our panel a little later on. donna brazile, erick erickson,

mary matalin. we're on google plus. add us to your circles. on twitter @andersoncooper. i'll try to tweet tonight though my hands are frozen. mitt romney said, we're going to win this thing. but just exactly what thing was he talking about? and a surprising admission from newt gingrich talking about his own chances tomorrow later rick santorum takes pride in his staunch conservative views. he's under fire for some of what he said but taking heat from ron paul who calls him too liberal. for sore muscles use new ] bengay cold therapy, it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness let's also check in with isha sesay. new bengay cold the. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce the same technology used by physical therapists. and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce.

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it sounded like a stunning show of confidence from mitt romney. turns out to be not quite. as we showed you at the top of the hour, he stands as the narrow front-runner in late polling here but is by no means short of victory. he sounded like a man clearly predicting a win tomorrow. listen. >> we're going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up other states and to get the balance i need, the votes i need to become our nominee. >> it sounds like a clear departure from the cautious tone he's been taking. turns out it actually wasn't. a romney spokesperson saying that the remarks only referred to winning the nomination, not a victory tomorrow. newt gingrich losing some of the swagger and referring to tomorrow, he came right out and said, i don't think i'm going to

win. earlier today he said he might and just a few weeks ago he said he expected to win it all, to be the republican nominee. what a short, strange trip it has been. here's gary tuchman. >> reporter: as newt gingrich started this final full campaign day before the iowa caucuses, do you think the caucuses are winnable? >> sure. >> reporter: he expressed confidence he could still leave iowa victorious, but later his opinion evolved. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think if you look at the numbers, that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> reporter: the former history professor and speaker of the house has loudly and proudly state head will not run a negative campaign, but a change is looming. do you tweak your campaign message after iowa? >> sure. i think you'll see us wednesday morning in new hampshire being much clearer about the choice between a conservative and a moderate. >> reporter: and newt gingrich said that moderate is mitt romney, the man he blames for most of the negative campaigning

against him. >> he makes it clear that i have no choice because i would have been totally happy to run a positive campaign and never mentioned it. he made that impossible. >> reporter: he's clearly angry. at a stop at the agriculture museum he stays professorial and rather monoo tone. >> i wish the people running these negative ads would adopt a very simple rule. if you won't show the ad to your grandchildren, don't run it. >> reporter: actually in this case inside the wheel well of big bud what is said to be a 14-foot-tall, the largest tractor in the world. an ideal backdrop in a state where agriculture is so important. >> my position on ethanol is very simple -- if i have to choose teen the next billion dollars going to iran or going to iowa, i pick iowa. >> reporter: while campaigning gingrich took some time to plug

his wife calista's book. >> we have ellis the elephant here this afternoon. his only visit to iowa this trip. >> reporter: children were encouraged to take pictures from the character, which is notably an elephant and not a donkey. gingrich seems to have accepted the likelihood he will not win in iowa, but he rests hose hopes for a good showing on voters who are undecide or not sure. voters he hopes see the light and come home to him. newt gingrich says he doesn't need to be president. >> this is exciting, it's interesting, it's fascinating, but it's not at the center of my being. it's at the center of my duty. >> reporter: he does believe, the country needs him. gary tuchman, cnn, independence, iowa. dig deeper now. candy crowley, also senior political analyst david gergen who is sensibly somewhere else warm. candy, there's been a lot of talk about how the attack ads hurt newt gingrich.

he just does not have the money to respond. >> he didn't. what you do is you have a campaign debt, but you try to turn it into an asset. he didn't have enough money pound for pound to defend what he got hit with because this was an outside group along with ron paul. he couldn't respond pound for pound and until recently wasn't responding on the campaign trail. don't we all hate those negative ads? if you hate those negative ads go to the caucuses and vote for me. it became a campaign strategy, but it really was a campaign necessity. he just didn't have the money to do it. >> as much as one hopes campaign astd don't work, clearly they do in this case. >> they sure did. i don't think he saw it coming. he told me back in december he fully expected to be heavily vetted by the media, and he thought that vetting would be tough on him and big question was would he be standing in early january. but i don't think he foresaw the

onslaught of negative ads coming from within the republican party. he's clearly furious about that. i do think he's going to be much, much tougher as he goes -- heads towards south carolina. he know he's in the second tier now. one of the interesting questions is will his aerng be so intense coming out of this that he may really want to inflict real damage on mitt romney as a potential nominee of the party. >> candy, in terms of -- how does that race differ from others you've covered thus far? how is iowa different this year? >> first of all, it's far more fluid. just throughout the year we saw those -- >> everybody has been a front-runner. >> everybody got their shot at it. now it seems to be rick santorum's shot and maybe jon huntsman in new hampshire. but even beyond that, it's still fluid. 41% that say, you know, i could be persuaded to vote for someone else. and it matters. if this were a primary and

people go in and vote in a little booth, i would say don't pay any attention to that 41%. they're trying to stay open minded. but in iowa you go and listen to your neighbors give a speech about a guy. that can be persuasive. you have a friend that says listen to me about ron paul or romney or newt gingrich. when 41% says they're persuadable, there will be time in there for people to persuade them. it has been fluid and it remain that way. >> david, even among santorum's supporters who are considered this year among the most dedicated, the most likely to go out to caucuses, even a significant amount of them are fluid, are changeable. >> they sure seem to be. i was fascinated by mary matalin's report tonight that she thought the surge that he was enjoying had crested, which would leave romney the very win are tomorrow night. if somebody doesn't break out

tomorrow, romney, because he's raised the stakes so much, it is important for him to win now. i don't thing coming in second -- it's going to look like he lost the expectations game. so i think it's important for him to kind of start breaking out and see if he can get above this lid of 25% that he's running into in various places. there's an awful lot on the line for him. if he wins big, a lot of us will say he'll be very hard to stop as a likely nominee. if he does not, it could get more interesting. >> you even think a second place finish for romney would reflect badly on him? >> i think clear he if he came in behind paul and santorum, even if it bunched and clustered, i think he would be hurt. if he comes in second after all this, especially second to santorum, then i think that it's unpredictable what happens after that. everything thinks, well,

santorum is just going to go away. coming in second to an soantoru would be a sign of weakness. coming in second to paul wouldn't be as big a sign of weakness as santorum. still ahead, more on the santorum surge, whether it has crested or not. the pennsylvania senator has gained major momentum here in iowa the last couple of days. also ahead crime and punishment. a four-day arson spree in los angeles seems to be over cars being firebombed in their parking lots. there's a man arrested. investigators count 53 fires, parked cars, where most of the fires started with fire bombs, $2 million in damage. our science teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three years we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love science.

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with the latest in politics here in des moines coming up, but there is other news around the country to tell you about. finally it seems an end to the los angeles arson spree. such a bizarre story. 53 fires were set, most started in parked cars. they do have a man in custody who will be charged with arson. he said it was the work of an arsonist who struck like lightning. casey wian reports. [ sirens ] >> reporter: just after 1:00 a.m. monday, los angeles fire crews and arson investigators responded to nearly a dozen car fires in the san fernando valley, hollywood and west hollywood. on day four of l.a.'s arson

spree, the number of cars set on fire exceeded 50. some of those blazes spread to structures including apartments. residents were terrified. >> this new form of urban terrorism that we are seeing in our community. >> reporter: sunday a task force of local and federal officials released this surveillance video of the man emerging from an underground parking garage in hollywood. announcing they wanted to speak with him. >> the task force has worked together seamlessly around the clock and currently reviewing more than 100 clues. mapping out the sequence of the fires that occurred, interviewing hundreds of witnesses and canvassing the 53 fire scenes as part of this active investigation. >> reporter: monday morning a man resembling the man in the tape was spotted by a sheriff's deputy. a man was driving a van similar to one spotted near suspected arson sites. he was taken into custody for questioning, then the arson spree stopped. >> we have not had any additional fires within the last two to three hours.

>> reporter: and what inference can we draw from that? >> again, it is too early. that would be really speculative. >> reporter: hayes sat smiling in the pack of a patrol car, investigators eventually placed him under arrest. he was expected to be booked on arson charges later in the day. "the los angeles times" reports that the man may have had a dispute with immigration officials over an issue involving a relative. one firefighter was injured during the spree. no civilians were hurt. authorities say they'll continue patrols monday night. the arson spree has caused at least $2 million in damage according to los angeles mayor antonio villaraigosa and frayed nerves throughout several los angeles communities. casey wian, cnn, los angeles. scary stuff. there's a lot more we're following tonight. isha sesay is back with a 360 bulletin. >> a bloody day in syria. at least 26 people were killed according to opposition

activists. the violence comes with 70 observers in the country. they say syrian tanks have pulled out of cities but snipers remain a threat and the killings continue. new york city police are investigating a molotov cocktail bombing at a queens home serving as a hindu temple. similar attacks happened at a months and bodega. no one was injured. nearly two months after the death of drum major robert champion there's a new plan to tackle hazing at florida a&m university. the strategy includes a campus memorial to champion and a scholarship in his name. the board of trustees approved setting up an independent panel of experts to examine hazing on campus. the man best known for performing dart vader's fight in "star wars" has died. he was a stunned double in the movies and others. he was 89 years old. awreath na franklin has become engaged to her longtime

boyfriend willy wilkerson. she's told everyone that, no, she is not pregnant. she's 69 years old. >> good for her. we wish her well. we'll check in with you later on. up next, the man of the moment here in iowa. rick santorum. he's surging in the polls or has been. coming under attack as well. will he win tomorrow? and what would that mean for his opponents? driver's license. past five years' tax returns. high school report cards. and i'm gonna need to see a receipt for that watch you're wearing. you know, you really should provide us with a checklist of documents we're gonna need up front. who do you think i am? quicken loans? at quicken loans, we provide a checklist of the mortgage documents you'll need up front. it helps keep you in the know every step of the way. one more way quicken loans is engineered to amaze. it helps keep you in the know every step of the way. when bp made a commitment to the gulf, we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through.

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make room. >> reporter: welcome to rick santorum's moment. >> hi, good to see you. >> reporter: just one day to go

before the iowa caucus, the surging gop contender noted the crush of cameras following his every move wasn't even there a week ago. that might explain why iowans have their doubts whether any of this is real. >> i'm one of those people here in iowa that's sitting right on the edge trying to make up my mind. >> come on over. >> reporter: santorum's message -- it's real all right. >> we've raise mordz money in the last few days than we have in the last few months. going from zero to 60 in the polls if you will will help those resources a lot. >> reporter: now when gop front-runner mitt romney punches -- >> i like speaker gingrich, senator santorum has spent his career in the government n washington. >> reporter: santorum punches back. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country. we're looking for a commander in chief. he is a fine man and he'll do a fine job for pennsylvania. >> reporter: but santorum has convincing to do. republicans remember how he lost his senate seat five years ago

by an astounding 18 points. what do you say to those voters who are concerned about that loss you had in 2006 and whether you're viable in a general election? >> i lost an election in the worst election year for republicans in the history of our state. >> reporter: a key fact was his controversial vote to have the courts intervene in the case of terri schiavo. a woman in a vegetative state whose family was at war over whether to remove her feeding tube. santorum has no regrets. >> what i cared about with terri schiavo was to make sure that a judge looked fairly at the case. they did and made the right decision. >> reporter: he outraged gay rights activists when he compared homosexuality to bestiality. >> in every society the definition of marriage has not ever to my knowledge included homosexuality. it's not you know, man on child, man on dog or whatever the case may be. >> who has the best chance to beat obama? rick santorum. >> reporter: santorum isn't running from those comments.

in fact he boasts he's a full spectrum conservative in his new ad. he has tv star jim bob duggar who is driving this santorum bus across iowa. he backed huckabee in '08. he's urging evangelical voterers to get behind santorum now. >> he has a proven track record, a conservative that's always stood for what's right. >> reporter: t-- >> the chuck truck. >> reporter: santorum doesn't ride in the bus. he rides in pickup truck. better for his pitch. jim acosta, boon, iowa. joining me is dana lash, st. louis tea party organizer, political contributor ari fleischer and democratic strategist paul begala who joins me here in des moines. the santorum surge, how surprising is it to you? >> it's stunning. seven front-runners in iowa.

three are not even in the race any more. santorum seemed like the only guy who never did lead. i see him as the frank finkel of the race. >> who is frank finkel? >> the only guy who survived the battle of little big horn. he survived -- on the white guys side. he survived because his horse couldn't get him there in time. santorum wasn't in the fire. hee was too far back. nobody was shooting at him. now he's surging. i think he's going to win. >> mary matalin suggests that his surge has stopped. >> which would say i'm wrong. she knows her party better than i do. in ann seltzer's -- >> a poll taken over four days. >> no reason for me to believe he has crested. mary is more knowledgeable about her party, but i trust that trend. >> what do you think, how surprised are you by santorum's surge? does it have any life regardless

of how he does, assuming he's in the top three here, does he have a campaign beyond iowa? >> no, i don't think that he does. rick santorum, one of the reason he's surging in iowa is because all of the other non-romney contenders have fallen at some point. newt gingrich being the latest one. now we're watching his popularity drop off. so now rick santorum is to whom everyone is looking. but beyond iowa, he doesn't have the same level of groundwork. he definitely doesn't have enough money in the bank. they're getting some fund-raising, but it says a lot when the funds you're getting in in the past three days are more or equal to what you received in six months total. that says quite a lot. i don't think that he's going to be able to go beyond iowa. that's just because he's a good candidate for iowa and his surge is working right now because he's the non-romney, but after that, i don't think he can do it. >> ari, how much does money matter this time around? because it does seem like

there's a number of candidates, gingrich one of them, who has been able to exist without a lot of money. someone the other day on the show said like living off the land basically. >> that is the good thing about having small states go first. rick santorum is proving that, money at this stage of the race doesn't matter. it certainly will matter when you get down to the bigger states and have multiple primaries on one day. i hate to agree with frank finkel, i mean, paul begala -- but ink rick santorum is going to win iowa. you can just feel it. there is something exquisitely timed about the fact that he's going up without the burden of being shot at which is what took newt down and took others down. not such a referendum on rick santorum as much as still mitt romney is yet to be able to get above the crucial mathematical threshold in which he can box out somebody and take first place. the real test, of course, for rick santorum will come next. i don't think he can win in new hampshire. but this race goes on. i do see this working out as a

victory for rick santorum in iowa, i must say. >> fas ain'ting. paul, if you're romney, you want rick santorum, not necessarily to win but in the top three for as long as possible because it takes away from gingrich and others. >> i'm quite sure the romney people would rather -- somebody's going to be the anti-romney. they'd rather it be santorum than, say, a rick perry or a gingrich or guys who they think -- i've talked to some of the romney people. they thing have higher potential. >> in actual campaign they thought he had higher potential. >> greater ability to organize, the way dana talked about, greater ability to fund-raise, but more range. this thing is not a marathon. it's a decathlon. one day you run the mile, the next thing you do the frisbee thing and the speary thing. >> the speary thing? >> it's technical. that's what they call it now. great with the social conservatives. but no, he's good with all the other range of issues and talents.

>> dana, do you agree with that? in terms of a national race that rick santorum can't appeal to as many people? >> rick santorum is a good politician. he didn't win re-election in his own state. he lost by double digits. that's quite a lot. he's the wrong candidate for this election. he seems to be campaigning more on social issues. and that's not to say anything bad about social issues, but this isn't a social issues election, this is an election where the two biggest concerns are economy and immigration. while rick santorum talks really well about those, he's known really for his stances on social issues and his remarks on those have received the most media coverage and the most controversy. i don't think he can get that wide appeal after iowa. >> paul, sorry, ari, i want to play just something from rick santorum in iowa from earlier today. >> i think what i'm telling you to do is to pick the more

conservative of the candidates. and it's not to settle for something less than what you believe is the best. and sometimes the best isn't that great, but it's the best. and as i've said, i'm not a perfect candidate. but i would make the argument that i believe we're the best alternative out there. in the case of governor romney and john mccain, i segtsed for what i thought was the best alternative out there. >> ari, i mean, that line of don't settle. that used to be michele bachmann's line that he's now using it. do you believe if you want here that you think he's going to, that he has life in new hampshire or in south carolina or florida? >> i don't think he has much life in new hampshire. i think that's a real fort for mitt romney. you do have to keep your eye on him. here's where i disagree with dana on this. he's tailor made for iowa because he does like social issues and that's his core, his strength. he can talk about it very fluently. but he can talk economics fluently. he was a united states senator

for many years. he'll be able to make that pivot. it will be a test of his ability to make that pivot. but he's smart enough to know he has to make that pivot because this is an economic year, jobs year, spending year. he has credentials on that. i do think he'll do that. his real problem is how can he put it all together all of a sudden with all the burdens that are going to come on him now? that's very hard for a campaign to grow. a great problem to have, but that's going to be the test he's going to have next. >> right. ron paul took aim at santorum at his conservative credentials. i just want to play that. >> rick santorum is a former senator. you know what it's like to serve in the senate, you know what it's like to serve in the congress. why wouldn't he be a very good republican nominee? >> he's very liberal. >> rick santorum is liberal? >> have you looked at his record? look at his record. spends too much money. he wasn't leading the charge to

slash the budgets and vote against big government. >> paul, you ran campaigns against him. is he your kind of liberal? >> i don't want to tank him, but no he's not my kind of liberal. a real commentary on iowa caucus committee. they are fully committed. they would be if we had a fully funded mental health system. freezing cold sitting through a long meeting. >> that's what democracy is about. >> i love it. >> we're standing out in the freezing cold. >> but it's the most intense partisans that come out for this in my party and the other party. maybe for them maybe even rick santorum is not conservative enough. i remember newt gingrich talking about what he called the perfectionist caucus in his party and both parties have that. i guess that's who congressman paul was talking to there. >> paul begala, dana lash, ari fleischer. ake? click on the robitussin® relief finder. click on your symptoms. get your right relief.

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let's take a look at some other headlines. isha is back. >> national park officials say they found the body of a man suspected of killing a park ranger in mount rainier national park. his dead body was found in the park today. officials say he may have died from exposure. he's expected of fatally shooting park ranger margaret anderson yesterday. he's also wanted in connection with another shooting yesterday that left four wounded in a seattle suburb. the father of a missing toddler in maine is speaking out telling the "today" show he just wants his daughter back and would never do anything to harm her. ayla reynolds was last seen december 16th. police say the case has evolved from a missing child search to a

criminal investigation. three children are out of hospital and back home in utah today after they were rescued saturday from a car accident that trapped them under water. eight bystanders jumped into the frigid river to help a dad rescue the children who were trapped after his car slid down an embankment and into the water. and in minneapolis, a set of twins born in different years. baby beckett was born on new year's eve 2011. a few hours later his twin sister fria arrived in 2012. isn't that pretty cool? >> that's cool. congratulations to the family. let's check in with piers morgan to see what's coming up on his show tonight. >> you look a bit chilly there, anderson. is it cold? >> it is a bit chilly. you should joins us. >> i'm coming tomorrow, but i might need candy crowley's hat. i like that white number she had on earlier. we've got obviously plenty of iowa caucus stuff tonight. republican hopefuls

crisscrossing the state frantically hunting for every remaining vote. newt gingrich said he doesn't expect to win. tonight i'll ask him about the santorum surge and he has surprising things to say about that. plus i'll talk to the former front-runner herman cain live. his campaign ran off the rails after charges of sexual misconduct. how is he getting along? life after being a candidate and a big announcement he's making this week. that's all for us now, anderson. see you at 9:00. >> piers, look forward to that. coming up back with our panel for quick final thoughts on who they think is going to win. you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce. it'll cause cavities, bad breath. patients will try and deal with it by drinking water. water will work for a few seconds but if you're not drinking it, it's going to get dry again. i recommend biotene. all the biotene products

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this time tomorrow night voting results will be coming in from caucus locations across

iowa. in a moment we'll get final predictions from our panel and fight out what those results are going to show. first, some candidates already have contingency plans on how to move forward if they don't do well here in iowa. john king has that part of the story. >> a crowded field of candidates in iowa. rick perry has advertised the most, hasn't benefitted from that just yet. mitt romney and a political action committee that supports him doing the attack ads on gingrich and ron paul. the question is what happens after iowa? we know the campaign moves next up to new hampshire. right up here you see boston television market, some of the campaigns already advertising here. then it goes down, you pull out, you see ads here in south carolina. here is what is most fascinating. the state of florida boasts four, right? one color. television here, restore our future. that's the political action committee that supports mitt romney. he expects to do well in iowa, he could win. he expects to win new hampshire.

south carolina is where romney went off the rails in 2008. what's this? in florida romney's friends even before iowa votes building a future fire wall. anderson? >> interesting stuff, john. thanks very much. quick predictions about tomorrow night from our panel. mary matalin, one, two, three, who do you think? >> romney. i think romney's going to win. i think santorum may outperform his current expectation. >> but do you think his surge has stopped? >> i'm telling the people on the ground here have said who are unaffiliated. and he's weighted down by -- michele bachmann has the preachers, the new people are sticking with him to some extent. there's too many like candidates for him to exceed 20. >> you think romney in one, santorum, paul. >> romney and paul, then third santorum and perry. >> i think romney, because he can attract independents, but i think that rick perry will live

to fight another day, possibly in south carolina. >> i'm the lone ranger. i think santorum's surge holds and romney will be within two points of the 25% he got four years and $20 million ago. the most expensive two points -- >> you think romney in two. >> in second place but right where he was last time, 25%. then ron paul probably 18 to 20. >> in terms of will anyone drop out after tomorrow? >> no. >> no. >> probably not. >> michele bachmann if she doesn't do well. >> you don't think she'll try to get to south carolina? >> if she's out of money, i don't know if she can. if romney comes in second, people will have a serious look at his candidacy after five years of campaigning he can't go up from where he was five years ago. >> let me be a contrarian here. he hasn't broken a ceiling but no one has broken his jaw. the point that paul made earlier, this is not a marathon. it's a decathlon. but there's only one candidate built for the new rnc rules which go on for