gap. he is likely to maintain. >> mary is not mentioning gold standard for ron paul people. >> thanks very much. we'll get warm. the iowa caucuses now less than 24 hours away. we'll have all the results and analysis on cnn live tomorrow night. tune in, 7 p.m. eastern tomorrow night. that does it for us. thanks for watching. erin burnett starts now. bottom line on the iowa caucus caucuses, 24 hours away. michele bachmann polling at 7%, comes out front tonight. more than 50 fires in four days. is a spree of arsons in the los angeles area finally over? tonight a man arrested and the search on for a motive. and iran's military test fires long-range missiles into the gulf. is it just military posturing or would iran fire on american ships and bases in that region? more important question for this election, let's go "out front ".

good evening, from cnn's election center because, yes, it has begun and it's an episode of survivor. at least that's how republican presidential candidate rick santorum described the iowa caucuses. here is the thing about iowa. no offense, iowa, you're really important but you're also small. only 2 million registered voters. 640,000 of them republicans. and if the 2008 caucuses were an indication of what's ahead for tomorrow, only about 100,000 of those republicans will actually go out on a cold january night to cast their votes. those who do, it only is a 50% success rate when it actually comes to picking the eventual nominee. so, what's all the hype about iowa? the bottom line is, it has a huge influence in who stays and doesn't stay in a presidential race. it may be small but it packs one big punch. listen to the candidates today. they know what's really at stake

tomorrow. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer. for this country. we're looking for a commander in chief. rear looking for someone who has experience, someone who can lead. >> the next generation is here today. that is why we have to change things today and bring back traditions of america which means liberty, peace and prosperi prosperity. >> this president's failed. he said if i can't get this economy turned around in three years, i'll be looking at a one term proposition. i'm here to collect. we're going to talk it back. take it back. >> all right, i'm here to collect. pretty optimistic. three-way tie in the latest polls today. some already downplaying expectations. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think if you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> all right. so they're all out talking. one thing that's been so amazing about iowa, we talk about what a punch it packs, take a look at my walls. i'm real excited about my walls

here. you will see amazing things they can do tomorrow night. let's just show you this. this is iowa's poll, an example of what we've seen. this just shows the point of how volatile and pow important iowa is. this is among republican likely voters in iowa. from june through now. you can see mitt romney was number one back in june. as we progress a little bit further. you see michele bachmann number one in july with 32%. rating right there. romney number one. in october. but then you see the rise of herman cain up to 34%. highest to that point. mitt romney, once again. but really hovering right in that mid-20s, which is where he has been effectively stuck all the way along. herman cain, again in november. then when you see herman cain get out of the race on the accusations of sexual harassment, you have newt gingrich. that was a real surge up to 33%. ron paul, then, as the leader, 28%. and then, mitt romney, once again. but still in the mid 20s. at 25.

and you see mitt romney there. had this gone a couple more days you would have seen rick santorum who doubled from 11% of likely voters last wednesday to 22% on friday. which is pretty stunning. as you can see, all those different leaders, since this began. a few votes can make a huge difference. that's why iowa is so important, because a few votes can make the difference between a win and a loss, between who eventually becomes the nominee for the gop. that's where john avalon comes in. you looked at this back in 2008. the margin of victory between a winner and a runner-up, not very big. >> not big at all. the difference between mike huckabee, who won the 2008 caucuses and mitt romney, who had outspent him heavily, invested so heavily, only 10,000 votes. >> stunning. >> stunning. the difference between the number three person, who was fred thompson and ron paul who came in fifth, less than 400 rote. very narrow margins. high intensity, low turnout

election. it's highly conservative. 88% of people last time identified as conservatives, 11% moderates. skews right and margins we're talking about are very tight. >> high intensity, right now benefits rick santorum, who has momentum. we've been looking at the des moines register poll. 76% of people who vote for him, going to the poll. highest of anybody. something that happened today may influence that. here is rick santorum and his wife a few moments ago. >> it's so important to recognize for the family, to recognize the life of that child. and for all of the children to know that they had a brother and sister. [ applause ] and they did. little elizabeth. they were young. but elizabeth was here. i know it's hard.

it gives you opportunity to see that -- that we all go through this. this is part of life. >> obviously rick santorum very conservative, and as you were just hearing on john king passionately and for years fought for the partial-birth abortion. can he win? does he have the staying power that mike huckabee did not? >> look there is no question he has the big momentum at the right time. we see a lot of crocodile tears in campaigns. that was a moment of genuine emotion. it helps project that authenticity, that realness people really want to see in a candidate. something mitt romney butted up against. if santorum can coalesce the 75% of voters who consistently keep looking for an alternative to mitt romney, if he has the big mo at the right time, he cannot only have a big win tomorrow night f he performs reasonably well in new hampshire, open primary, least religious state in the nation, if he can do that in south carolina, that becomes a long, protracted play. you'll see ron paul supporters are very intense. they are not going away.

those are the top tier. there will be some surprises. rick perry trying to put forward a ground game. newt gingrich lowering expectations, trying to go for sympathy vote saying, hey, look, i'm a victim of negative attacks. if you're trying to figure out if you stay in at the end of a race, if i've been a conservative pop list, appealing to conservative voters and come in at the bottom of the race in iowa, you've got a big problem. >> what made you make your decision? you, of course, were an adviser to rudy giuliani. not a social conservative. he didn't play in iowa. but he did make his big bet in florida. when he lost, he got right out after. how do you make that a decision, if you're not a winner, when do you get out? >> you figure out what is the must win for you, the best fit for the campaign you want to run? florida seems to be the tie-breaker. when florida didn't work out, when rudy game in third in florida, he knew the game was up. pulled out the next day and endorsed john mccain. if you're a social conservative candidate, running on that populist train, rick perry orme

chel bachmann and end up at the bottom of the caucus on tuesday night, you have a real problem. the question is, do you pack up your tent, endorse someone else, or do you camp to south carolina? if do you that, you have a fractured conservative field, that's an's set for mitt romney. >> one candidate who has seen her poll numbers in iowa surge, as you saw, was the leader this summer for a while, but then falls is congresswoman michele bachmann. latest "des moines register" poll has her at 7%, which would put her according to this poll in last place. she joins us from des moines. good to see you, congresswoman. appreciate it. nice to talk to you again. you know, it's interesting how john was putting this, if you are a conservative, a social conservative, that iowa is a must win state. do you feel that way? if you come in last in iowa, does that make your rudy giuliani moment?

>> we're looking forward to tomorrow night to see the results because we've done what no other candidate has done. appear have after the last debate in sioux city, iowa, we traveled 6900 miles through all 99 iowa counties and we saw literally thousands of iowas on the stump flipping from being undecided to voting for me, voting for another candidate to voting for me. the biggest issue in the last debate was the issue of whether iran should have a nuclear bomb. ron paul said had no problem with iran having a nuclear bomb. i took on ron paul. i took on newt gingrich. i took on mitt romney. paul saw in me someone who's capable of taking on president obama, defeating him and going on to be president of the united states. so i think tomorrow night we'll issue a very different result than what people are seeing because, again, still 50% of people register in the polls as undecided. and i have a very strong suspicion we'll see a lot of people coming out and voting for

me. in addition, i have over 200 pastor endorsements across the state of iowa. no other candidate has that level of evangelical support. i think we need to wait until tomorrow night to see what the results are. >> there was a sign that said you were the biblical candidate, biblly approved. can you explain what that means? >> well, that's -- that's what someone said. i am the candidate that i hope that will be iowan-approved. iowans will stand up for me, whether they're fiscal conservative candidates, iowans, because of all the candidates, i'm the strongest fiscal conservative. i'm a federal tax lawyer. i am a successful private business woman for five years. i've been fighting against out of control spending in washington. that's what iowans are looking for in their next president. they want someone who will stand for them and stand against washington. i've been proven and tested. that's a big difference between myself and other candidates.

mitt romney is a big spender. newt gingrich, big spender. rick santorum voted for the bridge to nowhere. he's all about earmarks. so, we can't have our nominee be a big spending republican. we need to have a fiscal conservative. i'm the one of all the candidates that fits that bill. >> let me ask you, though, if coming out of this, you end up in a situation where you have rick santorum, you have rick perry, you have yourself, and you all continue and nobody gets out, and what you end up doing is splitting the conservative vote and, therefore, handing the nomination on a silver platter to mitt romney. . you're staying in ends up with that outcome, are you all right with it? >> this is conventional wisdom on the part of the punditry but it will probably bear no relation to reality. this is very early in the book about the 2012 election. there's a lot of chapters that have yet to be written. people thought i didn't have a

chance to win in the iowa straw poll and yet i defied the odds. i was the first one in the history of the straw poll to actually win the race. there's only been one statewide race so far. i've won it. we've already bought our tickets for going to south carolina. we'll be on a plane after the iowa straw poll. we'll be campaigning for three days in south carolina. then we'll be on to new hampshire. we'll participate in the debates. we look forward to being the nominee of the republican party and defeating barack obama in 2012. >> congresswoman bachmann, thanks so much. good to talk to you again. you heard her say it here, she will be on a plane, no matter what, to south carolina right after the caucuses tomorrow. well, los angeles authorities have made an arrest in that rash of arsons that have put the area on edge. so, who is the suspect? did anger at the american government play a role in the fires? this is an interesting story about immigration. plus, a shooting rampage that led to the murder of a ranger at mt. rainier national

park. that's over. a former iraq war veteran believed to be the shooter dead. the father of missing toddler from maine spoke out for the first time. who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. [ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. okay... is this where we're at now, we just eat whatever tastes good? like these sweet honey clusters... actually there's a half a day's worth of fiber in every ... why stop at cereal? bring on the pork chops and the hot fudge. fantastic. are you done sweetie? yea [ male announcer ] fiber beyond recognition. fiber one. hey, i love your cereal there-- it's got that sweet honey taste. but no way it's 80 calories, right? no way. lady, i just drive the truck. right, there's no way right, right? have a nice day. [ male announcer ] 80 delicious calories. fiber one.

tonight a man under arrest in los angeles. accused of arson in dozens of fires that have been set in the city over the past four days. he was taken into custody early this morning after police stopped a suspicious van in the hollywood area. >> the van resembled a description provided by the arson task force as possibly being related to the recent fires and the driver resembled a person of interest seen in a videotape released by the multi-agency arson task force the previous evening. >> all right, let's show you that video. you are looking at it right now. as you can see, it shows a light-complexioned man, if you look closely, with a ponytail who police say was caught on camera at several arson sites. now a total of 53 fires were set in the los angeles area between early friday morning and today.

as you can see, there is a terrifying thing. tonight the l.a. "times" reports the man in custody may have been angry with the u.s. government. and covering the story for the l.a. times all the way through and joins me now. andrew, good to have you with us. so, what can you tell us that you know specifically about, this man's issue, anger, with the u.s. government? >> well, we know that his mother had recently undergone some kind of immigration hearing. and that it didn't go well. that he was very upset about it. now the question is, was it the motive for this particular crime? obviously, with his arrest now, and this was information about the suspect provided by federal authorities to the arson task force. so obviously one of the thing that they're trying to do is establish is this the motive, are there other factors involved, and this is part of what they're moving forward today very quickly with this investigation following this arrest. >> and you are reporting,

indicates that he was perhaps from germany? >> that -- our law enforcement sources are telling us that he is of german origin. obviously the van -- had british columbia, canadian plates, which adds kind of an element of mystery to it. did he go to canada first? how long was he in the los angeles yar? was he in the los angeles area with his mother? those are things that are still kind of unfolding. and things that we are pursuing in reporting this story. but, again, obviously four days of pretty terrify nights where the fires were just popping up all over the place in a very tight period of time. >> we appreciate it. reporting on the immigration stort and whether the man had originally been from germany is the man who broke all of that for us. well, in washington state tonight. the massive search for the killer who went on a shooting rampage and gunned down a ranger at mt. rainier national park is over.

authorities say a body found in snow-covered terrain is that of benjamin colton barnes, an a iraqi war veteran. he was suspected of murdering park ranger margaret anderson on new year's day. she was a victim of two, shot at a checkpoint leading into the park. the gunman who allegedly wounded four people at a house party then fled into the woods. barnes served on front lines in iraq and may have served post-traumatic stress disorder. at least that's what some are saying given what happened. although there is no definitive link at this time. the big question is, what is the motive? what happened? why would a 24-year-old man go on a horrific shooting spree like this? it's a mystery that a lot of people want to solve, especially as we have so many people who sacrifice so much coming home from the iraq war. joining us forensic psychologist michael brannen. good to have you with us. we appreciate it so, in your -- >> thank you. >> in your expert opinion s this something that would indicate by any of the behavior or what you saw that it could be linked to ptsd? >> well, it certainly could be.

with post-traumatic stress disorder, especially combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder, oftentimes what you find is people who have a heightened sense of danger in and reaction to danger. what in essence they do is that they strike out or have plans to defend themselves in situations that ordinary are not dangerous situations. it is not uncommon to see individuals, especially those trained with weapons, to overreact in a way where they employ those weapons against enemies who aren't really enemies. where they overreact or overestimate the risk of that person's intent toward them. >> this is a horrible tragedy. if it was linked to ptsdf we're able to ever know that, we have all of these troops coming home. are they being diagnosed and treated or do we have the potential for a lot of people with, whether minor or major cases of this, who are just going to at the least lead very stressful and unhappy lives because they're not able to get treated?

>> it's a great question because many of the people returning from the war, the soldiers returning from the iraq wars, and really all wars who have been through combat, severe combat, are at risk for post-traumatic stress disorder. what happens is they may return home from horrible, traumatic member of casualties, murders, being in fire fights, in incredible danger and they may not be identified, they may not be identified because they don't talk about it. they keep it to themselves. they hole themselves up a lot of times and are embarrassed by what their experiencing. >> thank you very much. we appreciate it. iran says it has developed its first nuclear fuel rod. the big question, is this just the first step to nuclear weapons? general marks comes out front. and your wife says she really likes farmville. what's she really doing on facebook? farmville? that's tonight's number. [ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fight back fast with tums.

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i stumbled across a story i couldn't believe. according to the british divorce website, divorceonline, yes, there is such a site, a third null all divorce petitions filed in the uk last year that cited unreasonable behavior also mentioned facebook. not kidding. that's a sharp increase from 2009 when one in five petitioners mentioned facebook as a reason they were fooling for divorce. this is probably why we have seen social media cheating sites

popping up online. according to a rep from the company, quote, social networking has become the primary tool for communication and is taking over from text and e-mail in my opinion. that's mark keen from divorceonline. if some one wants to have an affair or flirt with the opposite sex, that's the easiest place to do it. also a profitable place. which brings us to $100 billion. the dollar amount facebook hopes to be valued at as it moves forward with its initial public offering. based on the value analysts expect facebook to net $10 billion when its shares hit the market. that estimate would make it the sixth biggest ipo in american history and $100 billion market capitalization sounds huge. it is. it's equivalent to more than two ford motor companies. but still only one-quarter the size of apple and about half the size of google or walmart. analysts expect facebook to file its papers, ipo, not divorce, in the first quarter of the year. reuters, reports 1,000 new millionaires will be minted,

that day who work at the company. hopefully they don't go on line, facebook, have an affair and lose half in divorce court. count down to the iowa caucuses. unemployment down. housing is up. housing prices up in iowa. there is a number that might really matter. the latest from maine. the baby has been missing and her father speaks out for the first time. tylenol (another bottle): hmmm...no... nyquil (stuffy): dude! anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't.

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we start the second half of our show with stories we care about. we focus on our own reporting, do the work and find the out

front five. first to night countdown to the iowa caucuses. earlier tonight michele bachmann came out front. she's currently polling below 10% in iowa. i asked her what happens if she doesn't have a strong showing tomorrow? >> this is very early in the book about the 2012 election. there's a lot of chapters that have yet to be written. people thought i didn't have a chance to win in the iowa straw poll. and yet i defied the odds. i was the first one in the history of the straw poll to actually win the race. there's only been one statewide race so far. i've won it. we've already bought our tickets for going to south carolina. we'll object a plane. >> going to south carolina. tickets bought. number two -- an independent panel will examine hazing at florida a & m university. the same school where robert champion died from hazing. an attorney representing his family told "out front" that we hope that the famu administration focuses its time and resources on developing

substantive strategies that protect its band members from hazing, that is the legacy robert would have wanted. champion collapsed on a band bus in november. one band member said champion died after taking part in a rite of passage where a band member is beaten while walking down the aisle of the bus. number three -- venezuela, claiming victory in a legal fight over its oil. the south american country said it will pay just $200 million to exxonmobil. that's just a fraction of the $10 billion exxon wanted after venezuela nationalized exxon's oil assets. oil is big business for venezuela. we looked at the numbers. oil makes up 95% of export earnings for the country. it is a major supplier to the united states. and nearly one-third of venezue venezuela's gdp is oil-related. america relies on venezuela, 10% of oil imports come from the country and used to be a huge country for consumer products as well. eurozone manufacturing fell for the fifth month in a row in

december. likely it is going to drop into 2012 according to a survey released to day. european crisis taking a big toll. but an economist at the chicago federal reserve told "out front" something i think is way more important. the united states is going against the global trend saying manufacturing is going to grow in this country in 2012 and the second biggest economy in the world, china, biggest competition to the u.s., but we need them, is also seeing gains in manufacturing. that would be fantastic news. well it has been 150 days since the u.s. lost its top credit rating. what are we doing to get it back? well, the economy is a big issue in this election, but in iowa it may not be issue number one. all right. let's take a look at what we have data on the economy. look at unemployment in iowa. it's pretty amazing. you've got unemployment down and housing prices are up. look at the jobless rate in iowa. 5.7%. that is almost three points lower than the national average of 8.6. but the number that really stood

out to me when we ran the numbers from zillow.com. median home prices in iowa up 14% since the 2007 peak in national housing prices. average housing prices are down more than 30% in this country yet up in iowa. that's stunning. partly because of the state's ethanol and farm-based economy. now the economy is still not doing great. there are a lot of issues there. voters may be less concerned about it than say florida, or south carolina where unemployment its 10%. how big a role the economy played in deciding who to support tomorrow is something we'll be watching as results come in and we'll do that with the help of our magic wall. gloria borger will be with us. >> write down a new name for this. john king has a magic wall. i don't know. we have to -- >> gloria and i can do cool things but we can fling things into our other walls. catch and throw. this is sort of an acrobatic wall. we'll come up with a wall. need things we can do, faces we

can show. a couple things you're looking into tomorrow is the electability question. this is "the des moines register" poll. what does this tell about you what iowa voters are thinking? >> well, it tells you that this is really good news for mitt romney. mitt romney has been selling himself on somebody who can beat barack obama. one thing that unites all republicans this election season is they want to beat barack obama. you look at this number for mitt romney. 48% say he is the most electable. gingrich is trying to sell himself that way. ron paul says he can go the distance. but, down the line. this -- so if romney were to win tomorrow, this would be a very big part of the reason. not because people love him. but because they think he can possibly win. >> right. this is something we should let everyone know. in the entrance polls, we have a slew of questions, among them, are you looking at electability, are you looking at values? brings me to something else you

want to talk about. who best relates to iowans which tells a different story when it comes to mitt romney. >> right. mitt romney, remember at the beginning of this campaign we spent a lot of time saying isn't mitt romney going to compete? of course, competed in 2008. didn't work out well for him. big evangelical contingent here. don't really love mitt romney. then he decided to jump in. has not spent a lot of time in the state. which is why he is at 10%. but look at bachmann, by the way, who's not doing very well, but she said she's going the distance. but, she spent a lot of time in the state. ron paul has a great organization in the state. rick santorum has had over 350 town halls in the state. that's why these people do well on whether you relate to iowans. whether that is a calling card for winning the presidency is something else. but iowa is a toss-up state. it doesn't hurt. >> when you look at the split in

terms of registration, ds and rs evenly split. what is your view, gloria, all this conversation about rick santorum, suppose he comes in first, second, does he have the staying power, i was talking about this, that john huckabee did not when he won the state? >> nothing succeeds like success. once you win -- >> people want to back a winner. >> they to want back a winner. they want to give money to a winner. rick santorum had a heck of a time trying to raise dough, suddenly if he does well will have the wind at his back, will have an easier time raising money. now, whether he can go the distance? you know, who knows. he could do very, very well in south carolina. we just don't know. he's being portrayed as an insider, somebody who supported earmarks, voted for the debt ceiling. he is going to go to a debate and let's see how he is treated as a punitive front-runner in the debate. we don't know. we'll see how he does. >> gloria and i will be here at our walls tomorrow. ooh, we are excited. >> very excited. >> seriously this is some cool stuff. >> big secret. we'll tell you tomorrow.

>> as we said, mitt romney the most electable by a landslide. when you look at the 48%. that gloria was referring to. in a cnn iowa insider vur say, two-thirds think mitt romney will be the winner. apparently romney-m does, too, because listen to what he just said a few minutes ago on the campaign trail. >> we're going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up other states and to get the balance i need, the votes i need to become our nominee. >> all right, let's go straugt to somebody who knows mitt romney darn well. kevin madden, romney's 2008 campaign adviser. kevin, great to see you. do you think that sort of talk is the right way to go? i mean, you and i have been talking a lot over the past couple months. you have managed expectations you doenlt don't expect to win iowa, not a big deal if you don't, but now it seems things have changed. do you think he's going to win? >> well, i think there's a lot of momentum on the ground in iowa. i think governor romney goes out

to these events, whether it's davenport, dubuque, des moines, he's had incredible turnout that he does feel warmly about his chances. but i think what governor romney's talking about is his ability to win this nomination. it starts in iowa. i think that's something we have to remember, is that iowa is not where the clock ends but where the clock begins on this campaign. he's going to work very hard in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, florida, across the early primary states to earn the nomination from republican voters. >> if he comes in second or third, is that a romney loss or do you see it as long as newt gingrich isn't ahead of him, that's a win for mitt romney? >> well, i think the plan was to compete very strongly so i think a position in one of those spots would be one where we show that he did compete vongly in that state. i think the most important to this campaign is that this is a campaign that's going to be one that's won over the long haul. if you look at other states, new hampshire, south carolina, florida, they figure prominently

in the delegate fight. until a nominee gets 1,144 volts, that's what we will finally know who will lead the republican party against barack obama. unlike other campaigns, though, we don't have to win iowa in order to gain this momentum and build up all of the -- all of the support financially in order to make it to another state. governor romney can compete very well in iowa and go on to other primary states and still secure the nomination. >> which seems clear. even when newt gingrich had the big surge, we were covering those big money lunches and dinners in new york. i'll just show the viewers i showed them at the top of the program. this is iowa since june in item of the winner. you see romney, then bachmann. moi point is, you'll see everyone everyone take the lead. he was among them. but six or seven people are been in the lead. what i'm highlighting, the dark red for viewers, is that mitt romney never goes above 26%,

never goes below 23%. are you frustrated with this national problem where he can't get above 25%? >> well, what good is it getting 39% in august or september when now you're at 11%? i think that if you look at governor romney's support, he's had a very strong resilient number all the way through this entire campaign. that was the plan, which is to make sure we're competing very hard so that when you get to these contests, where we're here in january, going to iowa and new hampshire, this is where you get those voters, who have yet to be persuaded, undecided to come into your fold and you try to win those -- you compete very strongly in those contests and then win the nomination through the long part of the calendar. all those other campaigns have gone up and down very quickly. governor romney has stayed right there competitive the entire way. >> kevin, thank you, talk to you soon. tomorrow night at 7:00 our special coverage of the iowa caucuses, wolf blitzer, anderson

cooper, the rest of our political team analyzing results on cnn starting at 7 p.m. eastern. i have to tell you, we got the acrobatic wall and it is very, very cool. let's turn to james carville, democratic strategist and cnn contributor. >> from the wall to me. i can't compete with that wall. >> that wall, i mean -- >> it's something. >> all right. what do you think about kevin madden's point? he tries to make the point, he doesn't go below, doesn't drop, so he's stable, resilient. don't worry he doesn't ever go above. >> you know, it's a good point for them to make, i guess. it's kind of steady. i know they are banging their heads against walls. last thing is for romney to say we're going to win tomorrow and talk about how he's going to build momentum across the united states and talk campaign strategy. i'm sure they'd much rather him talk about message and we'll do fine. i thought that was -- he doesn't make many mistakes. that wasn't a major mistake but -- >> one of those sound bites that

comes back. letmy ask you something interesting about this caucus -- or iowa caucuses. you can go in as a democrat, go to the door and say, i'm going to become a republican for tonight and go in and vote. there's always all kind of conspiracy theories about how much of that will happen and whether there will be spoilers and people from the other party trying to influence. operation chaos we call it. you've been an adviser. >> yeah. it's hard enough to get people to come out for your own -- much less to go out and -- >> yeah. >> the well is not that cold but still cold and not very many democrats are going to go out and mess on -- >> you have to be a real hater. >> yeah, that's not a big, big problem. >> what about from the obama perspective, what outcome is best and worst for the president? >> i think the thing that keeps this going, this process is sort of good for the president and i

think the republicans -- professional republicans, republican strategists would like for it to end. this has not been the best process for the republicans. let's not kid ourselves. it's been an unimpressive field on far. they would like to see romney win in wh win in iowa. that's it not necessarily what i want -- >> i usually -- that's not the scenario the president wins. >> he wants to see santorum surge through south carolina? >> yeah. we were very pro to the new surge. maybe david axelrod who was firm and -- any one of them i would have taken. bachmann was thrilling, too, for a while. >> all right. james carville, thank you very much. >> thank you. loved the walk. great walk. >> the great wall, that's what it should be. >> hey, we got a name. >> i think you just did it. well, in if tonight's "outer circle" iran says it developed

its first nuclear fuel rod, nuclear weapons. are they far behind? the latest dwopts of the case of maine's 20-month-old missing child. baby ayla missing since mid-december. why is her father speaking out only today for the first time? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older, may have low t. so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ laughs ] hey!

we do this at the same time every night. our outer circle where we reach out to our sources around the world. we begin with iran tonight which says it succeeded in building and testing its first nuclear

fuel rods. now will they use this knowledge to build nuclear weapons? here is retired u.s. army general spider marks. >> we have to assume iran will use its nuclear capability for hostile intent. for us to assume, for the international community to assume otherwise would be a perilous path. we have to get iran to open itself up to international inspections. test firing long-range missiles into the gulf. is it trying to prove it could hit israel and american bases in the region? >> iran's intentions are very, very clear. they are a regional power and they are extending their capabilities and their increased military capability clearly is directed against israel and their ability to try to shut down the straits of hormuz through which most of the world's oil supply passes. >> now to north korea where south korean president is offering to cooperate with the north.

the south korean president is said he's prepared to offer economic aid to the north in exchange for kim jong-un ending the nuclear program. north korea blames the u.s. military stationed in south korea preventing peace in the region. north koreans once again calling for america's 28,000 troops to withdraw. gordon chang is author of "nuclear showdown north korea takes on the world" and he tells us what would happen if america withdraw those troops. >> north korea has demanded that the united states withdraw its troops since the end of the korean war so it isn't going to happen now. if it were, it would destabilize the region from south korea to india. in the last couple years china has more assertive in ways unnerving their neighbors and they're looking to the united states to re-engage in asia, not to withdraw. so, we're going to be there. the father of baby ayla, 20-month-old from maine missing since mid-december spoke out today for the physician time about his daughter's

disappearance. as home video played, justin was asked on the "today" show why it's taken him so long to come forward? >> initially the first few days i was emotionally incapable of coming out to do an interview. i had been advised by coming on and doing an interview by law enforcement that it could possibly hinder the investigation. and i'm here to help in any way i can. >> mark clause isn't buying that. you may remember his family's tragic story, his daughter polykidnapped and murdered in 1993. he joins us now from san francisco. it's always good to see you. why are you skeptical of ayla's father? >> happy new year, erin. first of all, this whole idea of not talking to the press when your child is missing is a failed concept from a time in

the past when victims -- parents of missing children were supposed to sit by the phone and wait for the ransom call to come in. that doesn't happen. there's no better advocate for a missing child than that child's parent. >> why do you think police haven't named him as a suspect? since the beginning they indicated they thought they wasn't but he hasn't been named so, he hasn't been charged. why do you think that is? >> well, it's a matter of evidence. i suspect that they are still gathering a lot of evidence, trying to figure out exactly what happened, the series of events that occurred that night. as i said before, the universe of possibilities here of suspects existed within that house that evening. they'll take them apart, try to find inconsistencies and try to put a case together. >> they say it's a criminal investigation not a search for a missing person. what does that mean to you? >> well, that means you bring in different resources and you look

in different directions. they're probably no longer looking so much at the stranger scenario simply because that happens so very infrequently. they're looking at the family. they're looking at peripheral contacts. looking at registered sex offenders. they're bringing in different resources. they've changed jurisdictional agencies. and they're using different types of experience than they would have in the missing person case. >> marc, thank you very much. always good to talk to you. >> thank you, erin. and i spent last week doing something that i really, really love. and next "the 411 on gps." the progresso chicken noodle you made is so good. the vegetables are cut nice and thick... you were always good at cutting your vegetables. and it's got tender white-meat chicken... the way i always made it for you. oh, one more thing honey... those pj's you like, the ones with the feet, i bought you five new pairs. love you. did you see the hockey game last night?

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so last week i did something i love. i rented a car on vacation. i love driving. this summer i drove through oregon, stopped in baker city for a great fourth of july. another place that's memorable is romania. horse-drawn share roads with european sports cars going insanely fast. last week hi a chance to go to barbados, roughly twice the size of washington, d.c. but it has a lot of country roads where they drive on the wrong side. i mean, sorry, the british side of the road. no signs, lots of hair pin turns, trucks coming at you. you see this picture? warping potholes. the place where you beep before every corner and slam on the

brakes. you get lost big time because that map is worthless. we used maps and sunlight to navigate. maps were terrible. we had no idea how we could have gotten so lost on such a small island. when i told people about it, they said, why don't you use a gps? the fun of travel is no gps. valance is a taxi driver. on his way i asked him if he ever used gps. no, he scoffed and he didn't know the names of any roads. he grew up knowing how to get around and that is that. self-reliance and a figure it out attitude. probably not surprising that barbados has a school at the university of west indies called the errol barrow center for creative imagination. hi to take a picture. look at that. my encounter with va lachlt ance got me thinking. i had a chance to chat with eric schmidt. he said humans shouldn't remember anything