alternative is. >> rand paul's father is in second place. >> we're going to continue this conversation tonight because, of course, this evening the country's real first votes. we have the cnn special this evening. america's choice 2012, coverage of the iowa caucuses begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern on cnn in the election center. thank you to our panelists. soledad, thanks so much. good morning. it's a race to the finish. this morning the republican candidates are blitzing the state and racing the clock. we're just 11 hours away until iowa holds its presidential caucuses. heartland voters will crush some dreams and, of course, fuel some others. every candidate is hoping for the most elusive iowa export, political momentum pushing them towards the white house. our crews are covering it all. jim acosta is pretty tired.

christine romans will show you why iowa voters may not be asking the same questions as you. let's go ahead and begin with jim in west des moines. you've been with rick santorum almost 24/7. you do let the guy sleep. what's that been like? >> reporter: it has been amazing to watch, kyra. who would have thought when all of this got start that had we would be chasing rick santorum around in the final 24 hours before the iowa caucuses that the international press, he had the japanese, the german and the french, the british press all tailing him yesterday and testifies drawing some very big crowds partly because he is sort of the last alternative to mitt romney to emerge in this process because a lot of evangelical voters in the state have finally said, you know what, let's go with rick santorum inside this high school gymnasium later on this morning along with michele bachmann and ron paul to make some final arguments as a rock the caucus forum here in west des moines. so we're going to hear rick santorum sort of give his

closing argument. we're all going to be watching to see what he has to say. don't forget mitt romney is still the man to beat in the state right now if you look at the latest "des moines register" poll. he's the one on top. he was sounding very confident at events across iowa yesterday, predicting that he will win these iowa caucuses. and then newt gingrich, it's interesting, yesterday he was saying, well, you know what, after everything i've been through in the state, it hasn't been very pleasant, i might not win the iowa caucuses. it was sort of remarkable to hear newt gingrich say that. but then earlier this morning on cnn he said, you know what, i might win this thing after all. >> i think it's going to be a very big turnout tonight and i think a lot of people are going to walk in still trying to decide what's the right thing for america and what's the right thing they want to do as iowans to start this process. so i think we could win. we were, after all, up by 13 points. and i think there are probably four of us in a position to win this come late tonight. >> reporter: so these iowa caucuses will pose some very

interesting questions for republicans. if mitt romney somehow wins the iowa caucuses, and it's not a very big stretch that he won't or will, basically had is going to be a man who is going to be very hard to stop. if he goes into hnew hampshire and then wins that, he'll have a two-fer under his belt and it will be mitt romney's republican party. unless somebody can stop him. if he doesn't win the iowa caucuses, who is it who is on top? is it rick santorum? is he now the new un-romney? the new alternative to mitt romney heading into these other contests he says he's going to compete in places like new hampshire and south carolina. he doesn't have the resources to do so. or will it be newt gingrich? can he mount a comeback? rick perry. it's so up in the air. that's what makes this fun to watch. we really just don't know coming into the final hours who will come out on top. >> all right. i know. we're going to be paying close attention, jim, and talking a lot more. thanks so much. let's talk about the bachmann, paul, and persony campaigns. paul steinhauser is in des

moines for us. let's talk with ron paul who surged in recent weeks. what's he doing to mobilize his followers today? >> reporter: here's the thing about ron paul. he will be out on the campaign trail today. he'll be at that rock the vet event jim is at rye now in west des moines. everybody says that ron paul has the best ground game here. you've seen it from the white house as well. he has energetic followers devote devoted, energetic people who come to caucuses regardless of what's going on. and for ron paul, he would like to win here. sure he would. if he comes in second and third, he's continuing on. this man may go all the way to the convention in tampa in august. that's kind of ron paul's situation. he would like to win, but if he doesn't, he is going to march on regardless. rick perry, the texas governor, spent a lot of money here. his campaign has spent more money on ads, to put up ads on iowa tv than any other candidate. he's still in the low double digits. he would like to finish in third

place but a fourth place finish may still be enough for him to continue on. i think you'll see him go right to south carolina tomorrow and also hit new hampshire as well at the end of the week for those debates. bachmann, that is the big question mark. you heard last hour with soledad say i'm moving on regardless. i don't know, if she finishes in the single digits, the low single digits, it's tough. it's tough for her to move on. she doesn't have a lot of money. her campaign doesn't have a lot of money. >> what's your sense about other issues that might impact the turnout tonight? >> reporter: a good question. it is decision day here, right? you can see right here from the "des moines register" newspaper decision day. what to look for, well, first of all the weather. and christine romans can tell you, she was a native here, it's cold. it's supposed to be cold. look, there is no snow. christine, where's the snow? it isn't here. that could be important. a nice weather tonight and that's what we're supposed to be, no snow really, can help the turnout and candidates who don't

have those devoted followers and the other thing is the turnout. 118,000 went to the caucuses four years ago on the republican side. let's see if that goes higher. that will be an indication how republicans are really, really ready to try to beat president barack obama in november. remember, this is a battleground state, kyra. >> yes, it is. you'll be there battling it out. christine, we're going to get right to it. usually you are our money gal with your best-selling books and advice on what to do with our financials but you're my sweet iowan as well. paul wants you to tell us about the weather. we'll do that last. >> weather girl, too. >> she does it all. but when you were home you were telling me, and it's interesting, it played right off what we just heard from paul, everybody was talking about ron paul. even your 18-month-old. >> my niece has seen him so much she goo-goos and ga-gas. they are inundated by all the advertising spending, all of this hoopla around these

candidates. and what's interesting this time is they're not settled. iowans aren't settled. usually by now i'm seeing yard signs everywhere. i always see the ron paul yard signs and people are trying to figure out who they want to support and asking each other, they're asking me over and over again, what are you hearing? what do you think? what are people telling you what about the tax policy of so and so? they're asking questions now down to the wire. >> are we covering it correctly? i know you're watching -- you're not there as a reporter. you were there as being home with the family and neighbors. and so what's the real deal? >> so when you look at polls and the like and you talk about the evangelical vote, when i'm there talking to people, my family and friends, it's not so cut and dried. they're really still changing their ideas. the quote/unquote evangelical vote is looking for a republican candidate but they're also talking about jesus and what we're supposed to be doing to help our fellow man, so they're also talking about safety nets. they're worried about too much government but they're also, how are we taking care of each other

if the economy is not going to come right back? there are nuance discussions happening within these circles and it's not this monolithic discussion happening all the time and the other thing about iowa is that the chi is incredibly important, and this feeling that we're not going in the right direction, they don't like that. it's a very can do kind of a place. but by the same token, things are going okay in iowa. >> and we were talking about your grandmother's farm. >> the farm prices. oh, my gosh. $6,000 an acre on average, a record high last year. everyone has been very nice to grandma these days in iowa. anyone with a family farm suddenly you have real money there in that soil and you have real demand and iowans are feeding the world. there's talk about globalization, about taxes, what these candidates will do, and it really, really matters to a lot of people. >> before i let you go, and on the other side of things -- i

remember this because i put windows in my home, you talk to folks there and they do want to hear what the candidates have to say about job creation because they've been losing jobs since houses haven't been built like in the past. pella is suffering. >> and manufacturing has been the sore spot for iowa and the rest of the country like all the other midwest rust belt places. anything that has to do with a tractor, they're hiring and building. anything to do with agriculture is doing well. yes, you're right. that part of the economy there, people are struggling and people are very -- big maytag plant that closed in newton but you're looking at signs of life again in newton a few years later. not clear what it was before, but trying to recover in a globalized new kind of economy. >> learn how to build a tractor, is what it sounds like. >> agriculture has really been a powerhouse there. that's been a big help. >> great to see you. stick around. i love talking politics.

>> you'll be seeing me. >> thanks, christine. tonight the country's first real votes, the first true test takes place in the iowa caucuses. watch it happen, special live america's choice 2012 coverage from the iowa caucuses at 7:00 p.m. eastern on cnn. up next, we're turning two of our political buzz players into fortune tellers. they're going to give us their predictions on tonight's iowa caucuses. also, the arson fires in southern california have stopped s. police arrested this man and say that he's the one who started them. but who is he and what set him off? we have details. >> announcer: with nothing but his computer, an identity thief is able to use your information to open a bank account... in order to make your money his money. [whoosh, clang] you need lifelock-- the only identity protection company that now monitors bank accounts for takeover fraud. lifelock-- relentlessly protecting your identity. call 1-800-lifelock or go to

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we're pretty used to the

verbal fireworks. we do expect some debate but this morning we want the predictions. let's start with iowa caucuses. and now you have me all screwed up. dana, why do you keep changing your name? it's driving me crazy. do you have her name straight? maybe we should debate that. >> this is the first i've heard of this problem. >> okay, your predictions on the caucuses tonight? >> i think it's romney will probably win iowa. ron paul is in a strong second place and santorum has a surge. >> i need a prediction. come on now. go out on a limb. >> i need my crystal ball. where is my cnn crystal ball? i'm in studio. >> if you had to go with your gut, you're thinking romney? >> romney, from my gut, will probably take iowa. >> will, what do you think?

>> i'm going to back into this, kyra. i think predictions are a fool's game but i'm going to give you one. >> that's not good. >> first of all, a lot of people don't understand how a caucus works. tonight some 100,000 withiowa republicans are going to go out to church basements and community centers and talk and debate and persuade for their candidate and then a blank sheet of paper and write down a name. so let me give you three factors that helps each of the three. the republican field is prone to momentum, tides going in and out and right now the tide is going in for rick santorum. ron paul has a ton of very persuasive certificate ga surrogates. that could help ron paul. the 40% will see the electability issue with mitt romney, that he is far and away seen as the most electable and i'm going to predict mitt romney. >> okay. bottom line, no argument there. we have just prevented one fight. why don't we talk about the impact that the iowa results will have on the future of the

tea party movement. what do you think? >> this has been kind of a struggle i've seen grassroots go through. they're trying so desperately to find that non-romney candidate, and they've been playing musical politicians for the past several months. people were excited about michele bachmann. she was little known outside of the grassroots movement. she is still relatively new. then everyone went to herman cain and the 9-9-9, newt gingrich and now rick santorum is the non-romney. whoever ends up winning iowa, i don't think it will have a huge standing overall or huge effect on how all of grassroots across the country reacts. i think a lot of individuals will be disappointed if it's someone like mitt romney because it's a very controversial figure within the tea party movement. so it's difficult to say. i'm look iing forward to south carolina and florida. >> will? >> actually i have a question

for dana on that front as well. i don't think the tea party is exclusively focused exclusive about the presidential election and she has talked about that. there's a huge election going on at the same time next year. i do wond earp what the influence of the tea party will be. i think mitt romney is on the inevitable path to the republican nomination. so then what happens? does the tea party just fall in line and support mitt romney versus barack obama or is there a possibility or a threat of a third party tea party candidate somewhere down the line? i have to wonder that. i don't know the answer. >> and that's a good point, too. discussing who the presidential nominee is going to be, if it's someone like, say, mitt romney, and i know a lot of people really want to go ahead and throw their hat in the ring and say it's definitely going to be mitt romney, which i don't think so. we still have time. the house and senate races get so little attention and there needs to be more focus on congress, frankly. it's not to say the presidency isn't important but the presidency in this particular election, in my opinion, is not more important than the

congressional races with the focus on house and senate. if we have a moderate candidate the in the white house but we have a strong conservative house and senate, that's going to circumvent any sort of rhino moves that this moderate candidate would make. >> so no third party? >> i think third party is a bad idea and i've always thought as well that any -- the grassroots movement should consume the gop from within and not splinter off, not divide the vote and form a third party. third parties historically aren't successful. >> let's talk new hampshire, shall we? we're going to did he haefinite forward. i know we should be talking a lot about iowa tonight. we're trying to bump -- will, why are you rolling your eyes? >> i lost you guys, kyra. i can't hear you. >> are you with me? are you back with me? can you hear me, will? all right, let's try, because i both want them to respond to this. let's see if we can get connected back to will. all right. so looking ahead to new hampshire, we'll try -- oh, he is back. fantastic. will, you got me? >> i have you now.

>> terrific. we're talking about new hampshire, predictions for new hampshire. what do you think? >> mitt romney. it's his backyard. and he's surging right now in the polls in new hampshire. i know jon huntsman has placed all of his chips on new hampshire but i don't think he will take new hampshire. >> and romney has consistency in his favor as well. will, what do you think? >> i think mitt romney is the safe bet in new hampshire. let me say this, git who spent the most time in iowa shaking hands, been to all 9 counties, rick santorum is surging and doing well. the rick santorum version of new hampshire is jon huntsman. he's been there. he hasn't gone to iowa. he's been putting his time in new hampshire. you can see a big jon huntsman surge there. >> thanks, guys. will, appreciate it. nice to see you in person. we'll do it again. and don't forget tonight is the country's first real votes, to take place at the iowa caucuses. watch it happen from all sides, special live coverage at 7:00 eastern tonight. and you know the chase is on for iowa's undecided voters.

we will look through the eyes of one iowa kcaucusgoer. plus, winter is back with a vengeance and this is exactly what it can do. police blame it on a 30-car pileup in kentucky. ♪ wouldn't you like to get away? ♪ ♪ ♪ sometimes you want to go where everybody knows your name ♪ ♪ ♪ you want to be where you can see ♪ ♪ our troubles are all the same ♪ ♪ you want to go where everybody knows your name ♪ ♪

let's head cross-country now, talking about the weather all over the country. take a look at cleveland city. much of the upper midwest got pounded by lake effect snow, up to a foot and more in some places. and blame the snow on a 30-car and truck pileup. nobody seriously hurt. and blind iing snow blamed r this accident that shut down interstate 80 in washington township, pennsylvania.

nearly two dozen vehicles, many of them big rigs, slammed into each other. several people were taken to the hospital, some with serious injuries. in los angeles the arrest of a man has apparently stopped a series of 52 arson fires since friday and here he is, charged with arson. and if he's proven guilty, the question is why did he do it? what exactly do we know? he has sort of an interesting back story. >> reporter: he sure does, kyra. i want to start out by mentioning that los angeles police chief charlie beck in a news conference last night said it's highly inappropriate and pri premature to speculate about a motive at this point. but what has been reported and what it is clear investigators are looking into is the fact this suspect, harry burkhart, apparently had some dispute with u.s. immigration authorities over the immigration status of his mother. they are clearly looking into that among other possible motives. they are still conducting

investigations at many of these arson sites and at a residence here in hollywood believed to be mr. burkhart's residence. so that is ongoing. we can report, also, that he will make his first court appearance tomorrow morning, 8:30 local time, to be arraigned in the los angeles superior court in van nuys area of los angeles. he is being held downtown on no bail. kyra? >> all right, casey, thanks so much. and the other story we're talking about this morning is the new beginning for stocks. the first trading day of 2012. and after a pretty dismal 2011 we're all looking forward to a fresh start. isn't that right alison kosik? it looks like wall street is ready to ring in the new year with a new rally, futures pointing up. opening bell ringing in seven minutes. wall street is focusing on

overseas reports they got on manufacturing, they did show improvement and here in the u.s. we are expected to get some manufacturing and construction spending reports as well that are expected to show improvement as well. so overall, as we begin 2012 the first trading day investors focusing on the positive. the bulls look alike. they're going to be taking charge. kyra? >> ali is othanks so much. trying to win over uncommitted voters. mitt romney is hosting a grassroots rally. a full schedule of events today. we will check in on most of them. and on the ground in iowa. our political experts says the biggest issue tonight is whether there will be anyone to challenge mitt romney. people with a machine.

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live pictures of mitt romney at a grassroots rally there. the caucus is tonight and he's in des moines, iowa. as soon as he starts talking, he's introducing his family right now, we'll check back in and listen in. meanwhile in iowa you know it's the undecided voters that could decide tonight's caucuses, and polls released earlier this week showed nearly 50% of those planning to attend had a hard time choosing a candidate. joining mae live via skype, adam, i know you've been asked this three different ways till sunday, have you decided on a candidate yet? >> as of right now, i still am

undecided. i attended a rick santorum rally yesterday. he answered me truthfully. i got to verify that on his record. pretty much it's up in the air between him and michele bachmann. newt gingrich might sneak in there as well. i don't know. >> so while you remain undecided, let me ask you a couple more questions, where exactly are you going to go tonight and how did you decide which meeting you were going to go to? >> well, we have the republican party -- [ no audio ] >> it looks like we've lost -- if you can still hear me, adam, we lost your audio, so let's double-check that and come back to you. meanwhile, while we try to get reconnected with adam, as i was just mentioning mitt romney is at another grassroots rally there in des moines, iowa, and

his wife, ann, by his side. and yesterday when we dipped in, he had handed the mike over to her. she seems to be speaking at a number of these rallies to introduce her husband. let's go ahead and listen in for a minute, and we'll tray to get reconnected with our undecided voter in the meantime. >> i am sure of it. he was the one whose shoulders we're standing on today. and i also think of my ancestors and the sacrifices they made to be in this country and my welsh grandfather who worked in the coal mines, and you think of family on days like today and you think of america and all the sacrifices that our ancestors made so that we could live in this extraordinary nation. and i think some of us feel like the light is dimming a little bit, that shining city on the hill, and we have to do everything we can to brighten that light and to turn it back on again because it's not only important for americans, it's important for all of the world that america stays strong.

and in my heart i believe so comple completely that there is one person that can do what has to be done to go back to washington to get people employed again, to bring the economy around, and to, more importantly, talk about the soul of america and how important the destiny of the united states of america is and how this land is a land blessed by god and that we need to be mindful of that as well. so i am anxious for this process to get started because i also believe that mitt will be the nominee, and i also believe he will defeat barack obama. [ applause ] >> thanks, sweetie. thank you, sweetheart. i have mentioned that in the last several days i've had the privilege of going on youtube with my colleagues and looking at some of the speeches of president obama, then candidate obama four years ago, and listened to the promises. he was going to get everyone back to work. he was going to repair the

nation and repair the world. extraordinary promises. but there's a huge gap between the promise and the delivery. the promise and the performance. as you look at the greatest threat that i think the world faces right now from a national security standpoint, it is, of course, a nuclear iran, a nation which is suicidal, it speaks of eliminating another people. a nation that supports terror around the world to hezbollah and hamas, not only in the middle east but also now in south america. this ises a very dangerous development and this president said he would engage upon a new strategy with iran and a policy of engagement. he would meet with ahmadinejad in his first year. how has that all worked out? he has put in place crippling sanctions against iran, failed to stand with the dissident voices in iran, and he failed to build and communication that we have credible military options to prevent eiran from having a nuclear weapon. other failures, he said he'd put americans back to work.

remember he said i have to borrow $787 billion and that will keep unemployment below 8%. it has not been below 8% since. 25 million people out of work or stopped looking for work or under employed. you have median incomes in america dropped 10% in the last four years, home values down. it has been a failed presidency when it comes to our economy. and then, of course, there's the budget and government itself. he was critical of president bush, appropriately so for the large deficits we had. and that his deficits are three times larger. and he's on track in his first term and his only term -- [ applause ] -- to have amassed public debt which will be almost as much as all the prior presidents combined. he went on the "today" show

shortly after being inaugurated and said if he's not able to turn around the economy in three years, he would be looking at a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. he's out. [ applause ] now i want to tell you what i'll do to get this economy going again. i will first make america the most attractive place in the world for job growth, for investment, for small business, for big business, to convince businesses around the world that this is the place to grow and invest not elsewhere. how do you do that? it keep our tax rates competitive with other nations, particularly for employers. get regulators to see their job as including keeping the burden on business down and encouraging the private sector, taking advantage of our own energy resources. we need oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewable resources developed here so we can become energy independent and manage our own energy future. and then, of course, we have to open up new markets for american

goods. we're a highly productive nation, the most productive of any nation in the world. highly productive nations, that means output per person is the highest in the world, need to open markets for their gadz around the world. this president has negotiated no new trade agreements with any other nation. at the same time these three years china and the you'europea nations have negotiated 44 such agreements. this has been a failed presidency. i will go to work to get americans back to work and make sure that job one is concentrating on jobs for americans not just keeping one's own job. mra [ applause ] now i'm also going to take on the budget. i'm asked sometimes, how are you going to do what you say you're going to do? i want to cut spending, cap federal spunding at 20% of the economy and balance the budget. i think it's simply immoral for us as a nation and as a

generation to keep spending more and more money by borrowing money from other people knowing that those debts will never be repaid during our lifetimes but instead will be passed on to young people. i think it's wrong, and i'm not going to let that continue. and how do i balance it? what do you do? well, let's talk about the things you cut. people say how do you cut programs? and i'm not just talking about slowing them down. i'm not just talking about slowing down the rate of growth of certain government programs. i'm talk iing about eliminating certain government programs. >> a lot of undecided voters still in iowa as caucusgoers get ready to head to all the meetings tonight. mitt romney there at a grassroots rally in des moines, iowa, trying to convince all those undecided voters to vote for him. all right. straight ahead, will iowa produce a viable alternative to romney? well, our ron brounstein is on the ground. he wrote about it and will tell us about it. whatever tastes goo?

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we can't stop talking about iowa, right? take a look at what ron brounstein writes.

the biggest issue is not who wins but whether the results create an alternative to romney capable of competing seriously against him in other states. let's get right to it. ron is on the ground in iowa. who is that alternative? who can it be? >> well, first of all, good to be back with you again, kyra. as we wrote in our 2012 blog at "national journal" over the weekend, the key issue here if you're thinking about the big picture of who is going to win the nomination probably isn't who comes in first. it is whether iowa will elevate someone with a chance of growing into a true national competitor to romney because, right now, the way the cards are falling is very favorable for the romney camp. in that, it looks like the top t tier in some order is going to be romney himself, ron paul, and rick santorum. now ron paul is a candidate who has enormous depth of support but his breadth of support shows he cannot go into a full-scale challenger.

santorum has run for governor of iowa. he's been here over 380 town meetings. he has very little going on in other states. he's not going to be able to replicate that. you have the possibility iowa will raise those who may face the most difficulty into growing into full scale challengers while suppressing newt gingrich and perry to challenge romney in a more serious way across the board. that is a favorable scenario for them if it comes out that way. it almost doesn't matter the order in their mind. >> well, and you write that the caucus' biggest winner could be romney whether he gets the most votes or not. >> yes, right. the issue here is that this has been a very unusual campaign in that it has been volatile and structured at the same time. romney has been a solid if not spectacular front-runner. he's done a relatively good job

of consolidating the more pragmatic, more secular, less ideological, roughly half of the party. the other half of the party, the overlapping circle of tea party activists, evangelical christians, have been resistant to romney all the way through but they have never coalesced behind a single candidate, as you know. they have cycled through michele bachmann, rick perry, herman cain, newt gingrich. now the wheel is turning to santorum but it's not clear that he has the scale even if he does well here to really consolidate and unify the vote and you have the risk that the conservatives who are dubious of romney face that he may never get to the point where he has an absolute majority of the party saying, yes, he's my guy, but he could win anyway because no one con l consolidates that potential majority. >> and you're waking up with all the undecided voters, have they made up their behinds yet? >> well, i think they're waking up more in their own homes. >> thank you for clarifying. i feel much better. >> yeah. you know, when people say they

are undecided, what they mean, i think, is they are not locked into a candidate. i don't believe that 40% of the voters are starting from scratch today. i think there is kind of as you talked to voters before, they're going back and forth between a couple of them. the big question here in that regard is whether conservative voters who are more skeptical of romney, the evangelical christians, whether they look at those final polls and say, okay, i may be for michelle bae bachm and you could see consolidation and movement to him. it's the change of phenomenons by observing it and the polls that have come out even the cnn/"times" poll that showed santorum moving into third place, if you look at the "des moines register" survey, he did much better after that than before that in their own polling. as voters see who is moving, there is a magnetic effect that

can pull someone in that direction. one of the romney people said in iowa a surge tends to continue surging. so it would not be surprising if those on the more conservative side end up with santorum. real quick, the other side of the factor is that romney does best by far when asked who is the most electable and some of those more moderate voters may choose him on those grounds. >> ron brownstein, thank you so much. the candidates' first true test takes place in the iowa caucuses. watch it all happen from all sides, special live coverage from the iowa kau ccaucuses ton. we'd like to lift up a member of our family, jim huber. he shared 27 years of his wisdom and prose as a sports anchor, a reporter, and essayist, and a friend to a lot of us here at cnn and tnt. and i mean this when i say, his writing stayed with you just like the images of the legends that he covered. his words were colorful, creative, and extremely

meaningful. and as a man he was eloquent and he was humble and he loved telling stories and not just about the athletes. he wrote about people whose lives transcended their sports. our dear friend died from leukemia yesterday. he was just 67 years old. so our love goes out to his wife, carol, and his son, matt. i will tell you jim will be missed. this was the gulf's best tourism season in years. all because so many people wanted to visit us... in louisiana. they came to see us in florida... nice try, they came to hang out with us in alabama... once folks heard mississippi had the welcome sign out, they couldn't wait to get here. this year was great but next year's gonna be even better. and anyone who knows the gulf knows that winter is primetime fun time. the sun's out and the water's beautiful. you can go deep sea fishing for amberjack, grouper and mackerel. our golf courses are open. our bed and breakfast have special rates. and migrating waterfowl from all over make this a bird watcher's paradise.

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you know what grander son wants in a president, check out what he wrote on cnn.com. quote, i don't know about you, but all i want is a stronger economy and not to be blown up pi iran or a crazy guy with a bomb sewn into his

tighty-whities. what's the proper spelling of tighty-whities. i don't think we got that right. i think we all want that. >> isn't this the same thing? the correct spelling, we don't know that? i don't know. we went back and forth with my editor. i wrote the piece to remind us that everyone that's in iowa right now, president obama who is fight iing for the white hou, they're all politicians. earlier today newt gingrich called mitt romney a liar, and people on twitter saying, oh, the gloves are coming off. i have a reminder, they're all liars. they're all going to tell us what we want to hear. and so as we go through this long ten-month process of campaign ads and abbreviated quotes and quotes taken out of context, to keep in mind everyone on both sides of the aisle are just trying to tell us what we want to hear and it's up to us as voters to be intelligent about this process and not to get caught up in the half trauts th-truths coming fr

sides. >> you say they pull jedi mind tricks. give me some examples. >> well, mitt romney, for instance. he's calling himself a job creator while not talking about the fact he kind of made his money by laying people off. now there's nothing wrong with making money, and i think that he will come to washington and make a lot of good cuts, but to call himself a job creator when he made so much money by laying people off, that's what i mean by the mind tricks. how are you framing yourself as a job creator? and the same thing with newt calling himself a conservative. when you look at his record and his tendencies, they're anything but. rick san ttorum, he massaged hi views on abortion. what he said in 2005 to the associated press is not what he's saying to the people in iowa right now. and so they all do this. >> all right. so you say they're no good. the president is no good. so who the heck do you want to lead this country? i need one answer right now.

>> the voters. the american people. you know, we can change the dialogue. we can change the rhetoric by refusing to just follow up, just go along to get along but demanding more from the people that we're voting for. the defeatist attitude that, well, the lesser of two evils. let's stop accepting evil. let's start at the local level and on the way up demanding more, demanding more honesty and a more thoughtful approach from our politicians. so we're the answers to this problem. >> go straight to cnn.com/opinion. you can read lz's entire column and, of course, respond. he'll love it. a quick break. ♪ made sure his credit score did not go bad ♪ ♪ with a free-credit-score-dot-com ♪ ♪ app that he had ♪ downloaded it in the himalayas ♪ ♪ while meditating like a true playa ♪ ♪ now when he's surfing down in chile'a ♪ ♪ he can see when his score is in danger ♪ ♪ if you're a mobile type on the go ♪ ♪ i suggest you take a tip from my bro ♪

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fast-forward to several events we'll cover later on cnn. new york religious and community leaders going to hold a news conference at 11:30 this morning concerned about a string of firebombings in queens. one of the targets? an islamic center. and the iowa caucuses start at 8:00 tonight. look to cnn for up to the minute results. our special coverage starts at 7:00 eastern. and not to be outdone, the president will hold a teleconference with the iowa caucusgoers starting at 8:15 tonight to give voters impressions. the next hour of "cnn newsroom" is coming up and let's check in first with our paul steinhauser, paul? >> you've been talking about it,

all eyes on iowa tonight because of the caucuses. who will win, who may drop out. let's talk about all of that. details at the top of the hour. >> and i'm christine romans here in the atlanta election center and we're looking at iowa and why they're concerned about the economy but with a 5.7% unemployment rate and the booming farm economy, iowans are more comfortable in searching for the next candidate. i'll have the story for you at the top of the hour. and i'm alison kosik, and candidates are spending less money in iowa, but guess what, it doesn't mean they're backing down on the attack ads. i'll have more on that in the next hour. also next hour will young voters in iowa be the ones to decide who will get the state's gop bragging rights? iowa's drake university held a student poll of their own. one of the organizers will share the results.

let's get to someone who knows how to wake them up during a college football game. >> a late night especially if you have to come to work really, really early in the morning. i couldn't stop watching, how could you? two great bcs games yesterday. first let's start with the fiesta bowl, stanford and oklahoma state, number three and four in the country battling it out in tempe. let's go. stanford alum tiger woods on the sideline, and quarterback andrew luck, of course, everyone's number one pick in the nfl draft, the 53-yard touchdown, the cardinal had a chance to win in regulation and o.t., but jordan williamson missed not once but twice. the cowboys quicker quinn sharp did not. he makes the game winner, oklahoma state takes it 41-38. if you're freezing southern california looks pretty good. a high-scoring thriller between oregon and wisconsin at the rose bowl. anthony thomas back home for the big game, he was a legend in

l.a. where they called him the black mamba, two long touchdown runs and two seconds left and wisconsin quarterback russell wilson tries to stop the clock to give the badgers one last shot at the end zone and overtime, but he's too late. he cannot believe it. i can't believe he tried to stop the clock. should have just gone to the end zone, the ducks win it 45-38. a great game. south carolina taking on nebraska in the capital one bowl, check this out, kyra, last play of the first half, the gamecock quarterback conner shaw, the hail mary! >> hail mary, oh! >> the kid makes the catch and the touchdown. jeffrey actually later in the game got ejected? he came back on the field because he was actually the mvp of the game. >> oh! duking it out. >> great day for college football and sports. >> it was. it was a great day in iowa, too, when you talk about unusual moments, of course, jeanne moos has that. >> reporter: if you're unexcited about the iowa caucuses, maybe this lady's enthusiasm will be

contagious. the candidates have been busy signing babies. >> will you give me permission? >> reporter: and signing cups that other candidates have already signed. the last-minute tizzy even extends to pozing wi inposing we coonhound. newt gingrich suggested tizzy go to his web page petsfornewt where owners and pets pledge their support. though critics have called it -- >> pandering to canine americans. >> reporter: but there's one pet you don't see with newt, that would be newt the aquatic amphibian and newt the candidate isn't just lowering expectations, he's submerging them. >> whatever i do tomorrow night will be a victory. because i'm still standing. >> reporter: lately michele bachmann has been standing in someone else's shoes. >> in the shoes and in the legacy of ronald reagan or you might say the margaret thatcher. we're in need of an american iron lady. >> reporter: she even refers to herself that way in a

last-minute ad. >> the consistent conservative fighter. >> reporter: america's iron lady, not to be confused with america's ironing lady. coming soon to a primary state near you -- >> you haven't got the courage. >> and she'll never back down. >> reporter: michele bachmann plays maggie thatcher who is played by meryl streep.

definitely a race to the finish in iowa this morning. the republican candidates are blitzing the state, racing the clock and we're just ten hours away from iowa's presidential caucuses now, heartland voters will crush some dreams and they'll fuel some others. and the six candidates campaigning in the state are hoping for the most elusive iowa export. political momentum pushing them toward the big white house. now the race too close to call according to "the des moines register," but mitt romney in a dead heat with ron paul, and rick santorum still surging and in third place today the candidates are scrambling for last-minute support, too, the gingrich and perry campaign holding events minutes from now. meanwhile, ron paul, rick santorum and michele bachmann

appear at a rock the caucus event, that will happen later this hour. newt gingrich has seen his popularity plunge and he's trying to make up the ground with the bus tour that is blanketing the state right now. we're waiting for him to arrive at this hour's stop, ellie's tea and coffeehouse. that's in muscatine, am i saying that right? >> yes. >> we'll take a closer look at the gingrich campaign and others, and paul steinhauser is in des moines. he's saying he'll score an upset win. what's with the shift of confidence? >> reporter: yeah, lowering expectations. i love it, christine is keeping you and me and everyone honest. she's an iowa native and she's great on the pronouncers. kyra, three or four weeks ago newt gingrich was the front-runner in iowa and nationwide, but we all know what happened, a barrage of negative ads in iowa have brought his poll numbers down, his electability numbers as well as iowans have second thoughts now

about the house speaker and maybe some of his baggage. about two hours ago he was joining soledad on cnn and here's what he said about his chances tonight. >> i think it will be a very big turnout tonight and i think a lot of people will walk in still trying to decide what's the right thing for america and what's the right thing they want to do as iowans to start this process. i think we could win, we were after all up by 13 points and i think there are probably four of us in a position to win this come late tonight. >> reporter: and regardless of what the finish is for him tonight, the campaign tells me he's moving on, he's going to be in new hampshire and then he's moving on to south carolina where he thinks he can still do well. he was high in the polls in south carolina and florida a couple weeks ago but we haven't seen anything recently, kyra? >> what about rick santorum and ron paul both appearing at the same event later this hour, right? so, what are their campaigns saying today? >> reporter: yeah, you mentioned the event before, it's called

rock the caucus, it's part of the rock the vote efforts which are trying to get the votes out, it's at valley high in west des moines and we'll see bachmann there as well, for santorum and paul, santorum, we've been talking about this. he was a surprise story. he was an afterthought a month ago in this campaign, but the former senator from pennsylvania has zoomed up the polls and he's challenging for the top spot. very popular for the social conservative voters who dominate on the republican side. ron paul, kyra, we've talked about it as well, devoted, energetic, enthusiastic followers and they'll caucus regardless of what the weather is. paul will be going maybe all the way to the convention, he is dedicated and determined and he has very, very fervent followers, kyra. all right, let's talk a little bit more about this, a little bit of a deeper conversation, chief political correspondent candy crowley in des moines with us. we got the audio hitch worked out, candy. >> yay! >> yay! it's because you are busy

chasing down the candidates and i understand you spoke with mitt romney moments ago, and what were you able to get from that conversation? >> reporter: well, you know, exactly what you might expect from someone who is -- would love to have a win, they do think they're going to do very well here, but i said, so, are you going to win tonight? he said, well, i think we'll do, and i think we'll be in the top three. gee, thanks. i think we all pretty much understand that that's likely to happen. and i said, listen, do you think if you win tonight it's the beginning of the end? because he's sitting very pretty in new hampshire. and that really gives you a head of steam as you move into the other primaries. he said, no, no, no, no, we've got a long way to go. pretty typical candidate answers. he feels great, et cetera, et cetera. but nothing to chance here. i think tonight you will see romney -- some of romney's sons out at these caucuses, you know, before everyone votes and writes down who they want on a slip of paper and puts it in a box, people can get up and speak on behalf of their candidates, so they've got senator thune here,

who is going to perhaps speak at one of these caucuses, senator callan, former senator from missouri and the romney sons may be out. so, do they feel good? they do. because this is not a state that opened its heart to romney the last time around when he dumped $10 million into the state trying to win these caucuses. and only to see mike huckabee who was, you know, underfunded walk away with it. so, they're feeling good. he has put in a lot of last-minute effort here. what they -- and honestly, if they walked away and were second to, say, ron paul, that would be okay with them. what they'd really like is a win, but either way they think that they would look pretty good going into new hampshire. >> well, what do you think? when it comes to the romney camp, and i don't know if you were able to get this when you just snagged him, but maybe somebody else in the camp there, who do they see as the biggest threat? >> reporter: oh, listen, i think the biggest threat, two of them,

really, newt gingrich and perry. why? because they look at santorum and they look at ron paul and they do not at the moment see two candidates who really could go toe to toe with the machine that romney has built up. if it's a long race, if we go through june, as we did with hillary clinton and barack obama, the person most situated to do that is mitt romney. he's got the money. he's got the mainstream backing. he's got infrastructures in a lot of these states that these underfunded candidates haven't been able to do. but rick perry and newt gingrich they looked at and know they are quite capable of raising that kind of money and of putting together a real threat. they don't see either ron paul or rick santorum at this point as having really the machinery behind them to really use an iowa victory to kind of propel them forward. they know that there will be someone that emerges as a sort of "i'm not mitt romney" and there's a wing of that in the republican party. but if it's going to rick santorum, that is better to them

than either newt gingrich or rick perry who have shown an ability to raise money and to be able to move forward. i mean, there's -- there's -- you know, everyone can move forward going out of iowa, but when you get to a state like florida which is also at the end of this month, you need money. you got to put ads up on the air, and at the moment the person with the personnel and the money to really play beyond these smaller states is mitt romney. he doesn't, they don't see at this point, that either ron paul or rick santorum can match him where they know that there's a capability there with rick perry or with newt gingrich to really challenge him, should they do well here. so, that's why if they're in the top three somewhere with ron paul and rick santorum, they'd love to be first, um, or that second or third -- first would be best -- but they could live with that and they think they could still build some momentum off that. >> got you. thank you, candy crowley. christine romans doesn't

just do money, she's from iowa. and you've watched all the crazy people come into your state year after year. >> they descend every four years and they spend an awful lot of money and they're kind of, like, gone the next day. >> what's different about this one? you were telling me that there is something that is different. >> yeah. it's different this time because i feel as though so many iowans are still searching. i think the polls go that. when i was in iowa, and i was there, i'm not there doing dine silk polling, i'm talking to people and finding out what is going on. >> talking to grandma on her phone. >> are you going to develop your land? farm price s are at $6,000 an acre. but people are casting and looking. they are not driven number one by the jobless situation. the unemployment rate is 5.7%, i think it's the sixth lowest unemployment rate in the country. home prices are pretty stable. people are underwater and it's not great and home prices aren't rising but you didn't have the blowup like you did in

california and nevada, down in the sunbelt. you also got as i said theboom ing agriculture sector. and they've got the feeling of the economy not going in the right direction, worry about their kids and grandkids and the student loan debt. and in general they're still looking. they're still looking. >> still looking but uf also said every house that you drove by with a ron paul sign. >> well, usually by now so last week, the week before, even a month ago, people would have the yard signs out for the caucuses. this time i felt i only saw ron paul signs. ron paul people are the die hards, right? and everyone was looking around and deciding pretty late who they were going to go for in this thing. >> it shows how many people are undecided. >> undecided. they're really driven, and it's not the same thing that you and i are driven about, the job sector. the manufacturing in the state, don't get me wrong --

>> they did -- >> not too happy. >> people lost their jobs in manufacturing but, you know, they're making a lot of money in agriculture, looking at land values and there's a boom but there's a practical concern about the direction of the country, the taxes in the country, the safety net in this country, it's all the things they're talking about. usually you see more cohesion by now. >> our native, we'll continue to check in with you as it all goes down. good to see you. the candidates' first true test taking place in the iowa caucuses, watch it all happen all sides special live coverage "america's choice 2012" on cnn 7:00 eastern. young voters could decide which gop candidate wins tonight's iowa cause cusses. what is on their minds?

well, with the caucuses getting under way tonight, there is a group of voters who say don't count us out, and oit students and younger voters and here's why. in 2008 mike huckabee won the

gop iowa caucuses thanks to young voters and president obama won iowa's younger voters then, too, and according to polls it looks like texas congressman ron paul is in the best position to win over young voters and here's one of the younger generational voters who should know. he actually organized the first straw poll at drake university, sam pritchard a student senator at drake university. thanks for joining us. ron paul actually won the straw poll, why? >> that's correct. he came in with 35% of the vote and we surveyed over 1,200 students. there are a number of reasons why he came in first. he's got a great grassroots campaign organization, and his supporters are very die hard and they really got the vote out amongst students, but i think his libertarian stances and his outsider image are both reasons that students really enjoy him. >> now, with only 35% of the vote, though, there's still 65% who didn't support ron paul. where did those votes go? >> right.

we had 25% that went for mitt romney which considering how well ron paul does in the straw poll, that's a pretty good chunk of people that supported romney, and then we had newt gingrich and jon huntsman coming in there, too, but they were a more distant third and fourth. >> you openly endorse mitt romney. why? >> well, he's a turnaround artist and i'm somebody who is very interested in the economy and so to see somebody who their entire career has turned around failed businesses, failed olympics, that's something i'd like to see him do with the united states economy. >> so, which candidate do you think, sam, has taken young voters the most seriously? i mean, obviously ron paul is the most popular, i guess, for his rebel ways among younger voters. but which candidate do you think really has taken the time to go for that group of voters? >> well, i think it's really hard to say anyone other than ron paul because he has done such a great job of meeting personally with students.

i know his young americans for liberty organization whenever they open up a new chapter, he oftentimes will visit that college or university. i think newt gingrich has done a good job of reaching out to young voters. but i don't know if we're really seeing the returns from that quite yet. >> so, let me ask you this before i let you go, overall -- and i'm not just talking about, you know, the young voters that you hang out, your pals, because obviously you're well read in and you know about the candidates and the issues and all of that. but overall, do you think that students this time around really understand the candidates and what they represent, or do a lot of them just kind of go with their crowd? >> that's an interesting question. i think a lot of the students i know are out there trying to meet as many candidates as they can and all across the state they're very, very accessible. but i still think you will have a lot of young voters who are apathetic or uninformed but those people won't be out at the caucus tonight, so we'll see how

results come out. >> all right. sam, thanks so much, great talking to you. >> thanks so much. you'll segue right into a live event now. i wonder if there are any young voters in the crowd there. rick perry has just stepped up to the mike, and he is -- sorry about that. the camera is not really in a great position, but it looks like once the crowd sits down, there we go. let's listen in for a bit as he goes for the votes in west des moines, iowa. -- luckiest man in the world to have this woman by my side for 45-plus years. 16 of which we were just dating. and she's a hard sell, folks, so i tell -- if it's 16 years to talk her in to marrying me, then however much we need to do to talk americans into our vision, that's what we're going to do, because that's what this is all about. to understand how powerful this

country can become again. and anita shared with you one of the reasons as we sat down and made that decision to get in this race are standing right over there. our son griffin, his wife meredith, and the always lovely sidney. i want to say thank you for being here, too, congressman from south carolina. he's in the room. sam graves is probably over there somewhere. and -- but just some fabulous people. i know anita said thank you to so many of you for being here. general, i want to talk about you specifically just a moment. being the governor of the state, being the chief executive officer, to have a general counsel, if you will, an attorney who is willing to go fight for you. when we had that lawsuit filed against the state of texas about

the ten commandants whether or not they could stay on our capitol grounds or not, this man was magnificent. went to the united states supreme court, fought for, laid out an argument, and won that argument so that our values as a country could be exhibited on that capitol ground, and i want to say thank you for that. you're a powerful man and a great friend. i love you, brother. great on you. we don't mind suing the federal government when they overstep their bounds. and we need a president of the united states that understands we're not going to walk into states and their sovereign rights and sue them. that's not what the department of justice ought to be about. the department of justice ought not be about running operations like fast and furious which are sending guns into mexico which are ending up killing american citizens. this election about stopping a

president of the united states and his administration that is abusing the constitution of this country, that is putting america on a track to bankruptcy, and, folks, we are going to take america back! that's what this is about. it is a powerful moment in america's history, and you are on the front line. this is concord. this is omaha beach. this is going up the hill. realizing that the battle is worth winning. this is about sacrificing. and one of the reasons anita and i wanted to come in here this morning is to say thank you. every man and woman in here is

sacrificing your time, your treasure, your reputation, but you're doing it because you love this country. that is what gets us up every day. gives us -- >> rick perry in west des moines, iowa, rallying the votes as caucusgoers get ready to hit the caucuses tonight. we'll follow all the live events taking place in iowa and keeping you up to date on what the candidates are saying. presidential candidates are spending big bucks ahead of today's caucuses. who is spending the most? and does it make a difference in the polls? we'll go to the new york stock exchange for the answers. the first true test taking place tonight, watch what happens from all the sides, "america's choice 2012 coverage" live at 7:00 eastern at the iowa

caucuses.

our alison kosik has been spending all morning following the money all the way to iowa. presidential candidates have been spending big bucks as we know in the hawkeye state, so what do you think? what have you found out, alison? >> do you know how much money? $5.5 million, kyra, that's how much candidates and independent pacs spent in iowa. and experts tracking the dollars say do you know what, it's not as much money as spent four years ago because of the economy. the economy, yes. it's feeding into fund-raising and instead of what the candidates have been doing is really focusing in on the debate. and do you know what, despite

all the media attention the race for the nomination has actually gotten off to a slow start. you wouldn't know it by all the media attention and the candidates haven't had much time to spend, but the one thing that's the same is most of the ads out there are negative, big surprise. kyra? >> so, who is spending the most? >> texas governor rick perry is spending the most. his campaign, kyra, shells out almost $2 million on spots in iowa and another half a million came from the independent superpac working on his behalf. and second is mitt romfully and his superpac spent $1.6 million and rounding out the top three ron paul of texas spent $900,000. gingrich, santorum, bachmann are following there. do you know what, you look at how these candidates spend and more spending doesn't always mean higher poll numbers. you look at perry, he spent the most but he's number four or five in the recent polls, kyra? >> check the markets real

quickly. you were expecting a jump at the open. did it happen? >> it did. bulls came out in full force. the dow up 247 points. the rally continuing after we got some strong data on manufacturing and construction spending here in the u.s. nice to see some green on the screen, kyra? >> absolutely. thank you, alison. newt gingrich tells romney to man up and plus ron paul and his dreams about the white house. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function

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forty years ago, he wasn't looking for financial advice. back then he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future. but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement planning for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. as you know, it's caucus day in iowa and newt gingrich now holding a live event in

muscatine, iowa. let's go ahead and listen. >> if they did close the straits, we could step in as a world reserve and help sustain the world economy despite the chaos of the middle east. so, in 1984 i was part of the process under ronald reagan. i voted for some things if you are old enough to remember called gas-ahol, ronald reagan passed it. in 1998 big oil tried to kill it and senator chuck grassley said that i was the one person who saved it -- saved ethanol from big oil, and i did it for a very practical reason. this is not complicated. if i had to choose where a billion dollar goes and my choice is saudi arabia or south dakota, i pick south dakota. if my choice is iran or iowa, i pick iowa. i want us to become so energy

independent that no american president ever again bows to a saudi king. now, you and i know that biofuels aren't the total answer, but they're a piece of it, soy, diesel, ethanol, cellulosic, good steps. in addition, i'm for american oil and gas. i'm for american coal. i'm for american nuclear and american wind and solar. it's a big deal that iowa is the second producer of wind in the world. only denmark produces more. but look at obama. obama is against american oil and gas. goes to brazil, congratulates the brazilians on drilling offshore. tells them how glad he is that we can guarantee $2 billion of equipment purchases largely by a company owned by george soros and then he says the most extraordinary thing. he says to brazilians, i would like america to be your best customer. now, i thought he had it exactly

backwards. he don't send american presidents overseas to be foreign purchasing agents. we send american presidents overseas to be salesmen for american products and goods and services so we have the jobs here. the the idea that you can borrow money from the chinese to buy brazilian oil has got to be the worst economic model you've ever seen. look at the xcel pipeline. i tell people it's one thing if an administration can't play chess. it's another thing if they can't play checkers. but if they can't play ticktacktoe. and think about it. here's obama. he doesn't want to make the environmental extremists in san francisco mad and he doesn't want to make the construction workers mad. so, he doesn't want to make a decision about the keystone pipeline.

we know how to build pipelines. bring oil from canada down to houston which is the world's largest petrochemical complex. americans will process the oil. it will then go by ship which creates jobs in the port of houston largely to india and china. so, the president thought, well, i'll get by all this. i'll decide in 2013. i think it literally didn't occur to them that prime minister harmer of canada had alternatives. so, harper announced the other day he's talking to the chinese because the chinese are offering to pay for a pipeline that goes straight west from central canada to vancouver. so we lose 20,000 american jobs. in construction. we lose 30 years of processing the oil. and the chinese -- >> newt gingrich live in muscatine, iowa. a number of the candidates holding live events today. we're trying to track them all for you and dip in so you get a little bit of a taste.

as you know, the iowa caucuses happen tonight and we've got live coverage starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. political buzz, the rapid fire, the look at the best political topics of the day. and playing robert zimmerman, founder and editor of citizen jane politics and newt gingrich tells mitt romney to man up about negative campaigning. take a listen. >> if he'd be willing just be man enough to get up and say, you know, this is my negative campaign and i admit it, i'd be a lot happier. what i find really frustrating, and frankly irritating as a man who wants to run for president of the united states who can't be honest with the american people. if he can't level with the american people about these ads, why should be expect him to level about anything if he's president? >> so, can gingrich convince voters that romney's dishonest, robert? >> well, kyra, when newt gingrich said he was going to run a positive campaign as an

experiment, it really was a novelty act. because when it comes to cutting, vicious and personal attacks, he's the political answer to wes craven. and you can all google his name. he's the author of the freddy kruger and "scream" movies. bottom line is you have to have -- newt gingrich doesn't have the character or the credibility or the positive approval ratings to be able to convince anyone of anything. so, no, he can't convince anyone that mitt romney is dishonest. >> i don't know why i knew that name because i hate scary movies, but i did. will? >> i tried to help. >> i don't think he can convince people that romney is dishonest and i think he should probably stop trying. soledad on her new show "starting point" this morning interviewed an iowan that said it came off like he's just bellyaching over and over and people understand this is how advertising works. i think we've stretched the definition of negative too far, kyra, for a lot of conservatives gingrich's rise has been a

mystery because he's been on both sides of so many issues. when ron paul has accused gingrich of serial hipock extrassy, it's not negative, it's informative. >> patricia? >> it doesn't ma ert if nematte it's all about thgingrich. when we see newt gingrich saying the things about mitt romney, it is comes off as bellyaching and whining. there's a difference about fighting back and just whining about your campaign and newt gingrich -- for somebody who really perfected the art of negative campaigning or sort of being a political warfare, it's just a very strange place for him to go. i think he needs to go back and be positive. that's what people liked about him in the first place a couple months ago. >> rick santorum, he was on "good morning america" this morning talking about his late gains in iowa. take a listen -- >> we've done this on i would say we've done this on a shoestring but that would be

insulting shoestrings. we've really done -- we've done it the old fashions way and our money is coming in better than it's ever come in and when we do well tonight, we suspect we'll have the resources to be able not to just compete in new hampshire but to compete all the way through. >> what do you think? does santorum have the staff, you know, to capitalize on this iowa surge? will? >> i don't think so. let's just say take a couple facts. i think he first of all would have to win iowa. and we'd have to understand that no republican nominee has won the iowa kaw xcaucus and new hampshire that's been contested. not an incumbent president being involved. he would be setting precedent there to go to new hampshire and do well. on top of that as perfectly tailored as his campaign is tailored for iowa, it's not tailored for new hampshire. it would put it all on south carolina and count me as skeptical. >> robert? >> i think will makes a very good point, because the issue that senator santorum is facing

is not just the issue of expanding staff and raising the capital and structure. it's also whether he shows the political agility or the political growth potential to pivot from a social conservative message to an economic message. especially in a year where the economy is the dominant issue. and i really am very dubious whether he's demonstrated the ability. in many ways he's a victim of his extremely radical and vicious and extreme statements. in short i think when he's toasting his great numbers in iowa tonight, i think the romney campaign will be toasting santorum's success as well. >> patricia? >> santorum doesn't have the money right now. he doesn't have the staff right now but he has the momentum and we know in politics that money follows momentum, and if he wins or comes in second, he becomes the anti-romney. he becomes the alternative that the rest of the republican party is looking for, so he can get a lot of money if he gets a lot of momentum coming out here. in iowa the difference from his crowds a week ago and yesterday

are unbelievable. he's getting people's attention. he may not be a perfect candidate, but he can get a lot of money if he can come out of here with a really strong win and start to hire staff and lay the groundwork. >> your buzzer beater. 20 seconds on this. ron paul on on "night line" talking about his white house dreams. here's what he said -- >> when you lay your head down on the pillow at night, do you see yourself in the oval office? >> not really. but i think it's a possibility. sometimes i kid about it. i said that's the risk i take. >> okay. so, was he too candid or refreshingly honest? robert? >> well, at least his dreams are less delusional than his rhetoric and his dreams are certainly a lot more realistic than his public policy positions. so, yes, it was a candid moment. really prompted by a very good interview. however, the reality is, i'm hesitant to give him any credit for being too refreshingly candid because ultimately what he says is based in such ignorance that it disqualifies him from any serious

consideration. >> will? >> you got a caught between two cliches here. so many people in whatever bils or politics tell you you have to fake it to make it and if you don't believe in it, who will. and he's not sending out the message with the interview. but at the same time i like someone who doesn't bs us all the time, yeah, i'm probably not your best bet as a candidate. i kind of like it. >> patricia? >> there's no such thing as too candid for ron paul. that's why people love him. i think what he said is true. i don't think he really wants to be president. i interviewed him and he said, i don't want power. i want influence. he doesn't want to run the country. he wants to change the country and change the republican party. i think that's what it's all about here. ron paul, that's a classic moment of candor and that's why the people will come out for him tonight. >> thanks so much. tonight is the country's first real vote. the candidates' first true test taking place in the iowa caucuses.

watch what happens from all sides. special live "america's choice 2012" coverage tonight on cnn starting at 7:00 easternen. welcome to idaho, where they grow america's favorite potatoes. everyone knows idaho potatoes taste great. but did you know they're good for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark from the american heart association for foods low in saturated fat and cholesterol. so they're good for my family, and for yours. heart smart idaho potatoes. always look for the grown in idaho seal.

[ male announcer ] when diarrhea hits, kaopectate stops it fast. powerful liquid relief speeds to the source. fast. [ male announcer ] stop the uh-oh fast with kaopectate. more celebrities coming out and publicly endorsing candidates and this time it's one of tv's biggest families and it's thrown its support behind republican candidate rick santorum, a.j. hammer with the details. there might be 19 members of this family, but not all of them can vote. >> no, no. but we're talking about a big family literally, we should point that out. jim bob duggar has actually been campaigning with rick santorum in iowa. they say the pro-life santorum has the family values and the

business perspective they want in the candidate so they are asking christians to get behind him. some analysts say this celebrity endorsement is actually having an impact. the duggars are popular among christian conservatives and those are apparently the voters that he needs to have to do well in iowa. the only problem for this endorsement for santorum is the duggars don't actually live in iowa, otherwise i'm thinking the eight duggars who are eligible to vote could probably hold their own caucus today. >> well, you mentioned, though, why he's in iowa, and the fact that it's these evangelicals that believe in his views and that's, you know, that's a huge part of the base there. i mean, that's -- that could make or break. >> yeah, it will be very interesting to see if he gets any movement today if we can tie it back to the duggars actually having had something to do with that. again, very, very popular. a big tv show. also a favorite in the magazines for people to pay attention to. >> a.j., talking politics, that

was something new here. we'll have to venture in to a little more of that possibly next time. if you want more information on everything breaking in the entertainment world, though, a.j. has it every night, "showbiz tonight," 11:00 eastern on hln. one of the driving forces in politics has a british accent.

all right.

let's go back to iowa, shall we, and continue our caucus conversation. this time it's got a british accent. simon conway is a brit by birth, but his heart and his permanent address is now in iowa. he's a conservative radio host at the powerful and popular news radio 1040 in des moines, and, hey, ronald reagan even worked there in the 1930s. now, simon, i have to admit in my head i'm hearing your name and i'm visualizing this sort of snarky simon cowell and taking down all the political candidates, but you seem to love most of those folks. >> really? i am not him, but if you asing, i'll comment. >> believe me, i won't sing, but i do know you'll comment. >> well, good, then. well good, then. a lot of these candidates are really good people and i think probably any one of them is probably capable of beating the president next november at the polls, but it's exciting times in iowa and we'll have a great

caucus day and i frankly can't wait. >> you talk about the candidates that you love and you love talking to them except for huntsman and paul, you said you rejected them for different reasons. >> that's correct. >> what reasons are those? >> well, jon huntsman apparently only wants to be president of 49 states although there's still time for him to insult another couple of states if he wishes to, i'd rather have a president that wants to be president of all of the states. as for ron paul he's exceptionally gifts financially i think he's dangerous when it comes to foreign policy and our national defense. >> you say you'd vote for rick perry if you were voting in the caucuses. tell me why. the polls in your state show that you're pretty much a minority. >> well, first of all, let's not pay too much attention to the polls because the biggest number that people are not talking about too much is the 41% of undecides. we're going to find out what that means tomorrow or late tonight. as for rick perry, look, he's run the 13th largest economy on

the face of the planet for the last 10 or 11 years and against a backdrop of worldwide recession and people losing jobs texas has created over a million jobs. you can't ignore that. >> now, i've got a -- i've got a home -- i guess a home country question for you. whenchele bachmann and talked about the country needing a margaret thatcher, you actually agreed with that comparison. why? >> there are a lot of things that are very similar to early margaret thatcher, there's no doubt about that at all. i mean, margaret thatcher was famously asked about whether or not she would do a u-turn on something, and she said the l y lady's not for turning. michele bachmann is one of the honest politicians i've ever met. when it comes to policies, she's so focused, there's no chance she would be driven offer on hrs could repeal obama care and cut the taxes and balance the budget, she is not for turning. she does have a spine made of

titanium and she's very reminiscent of early margaret thatcher, she's also incredibly smart. >> so, why aren't you supporting her? >> because you only get one vote and i'm not actually supporting anybody because as you rightly say, i don't have a vote. i'm not a registered republican and i have no intention of changing that and my audience asked me repeatedly who i would vote for. >> but you've got a lot of influence now, you replaced steve dace who we had on yesterday. you have a very powerful base there that listens to you on the radio. you've got a lot of influence. whoever you talk about and the individual that you say is someone that's won your heart, shall we say, people listen and those people vote. >> well, listen, i also conscice, there are very good people in this race. i answered a question. i made it very clear it was not an endorsement. it is not an endorsement. you only get one vote. if you really want to know the difference for me, as to why i chose rick perry over michele

bachmann, it was purely his executive experience, that was it. we're often told that president obama is the smartest guy in the room, i can tell you that newt gingrich actually is the smartest guy in the room. he's probably the smartest man i've ever met. there are plenty of good candidates. you only get one vote, if i were to exercise it, it would go to rick perry. but it's not an endorsement. i tell my audience every day they are way smart enough to do it for themselves and they'll do it tonight. >> simon conway and it's on 1040 in des moines, w.h.o.? the voters choose the candidate that they like best, of course, but the republican party is trying to answer a bigger question. who can defeat president obama? november? cnn political analyst takes a closer look ahead.

all right. just in to cnn a white powder scare at the palm beach county state attorney's office. we're told that an envelope with the white powder was opened in the mailroom. apparently three people there complained of headaches. had to go through decontamination. a firefighter who was on the scene actually the first to respond has now been transported with cardiac problems. at this time no word on who that envelope was addressed to or where it came from. but we are working the story. we thank our affiliate wpbf for these pictures coming in to cnn center. all right. hours before iowa heads to its caucuses, mitt romney is focusing his attacks on president obama. listen to what he told -- actually, he did it today during his live event.

and he also did it last night when he was in marion. take a listen -- >> i watch a president who's become the great divider, the great complainer, the great excuse giver, the great blamer. i want to have an america that comes together. i'm an optimist. >> all right. cnn political analyst roland martin working very heavy. >> always focused, focused. >> romney, is he the best prepared to take on president obama in november? >> not necessarily. frankly you can make that case for any candidate. newt gingrich probably says homes the behe's the best. and rick perry said he's the best, because he's produced jobs in my home state. and michele bachmann told soledad o'brien that she's the best. we are still in many i was a split state when it comes to voting. >> well, obama is not ignoring these attacks. >> of course, not. >> he's going to hold a videoconference today, i understand. >> because also democrats are voting in iowa.

>> right. >> he's on the ballot, so they have to still go through the democratic caucus and stuff. >> tell me how this is going to work and what kind of influence this will have. is this the right way to do it? >> absolutely. look, you have to start the campaign now. you simply can't wait to allow the republicans to somehow, you know, lay out who you are and so you must paint the picture in terms of mitt romney and those candidates so you'll see the obama campaign target that because they think he'll be the nominee. on the democratic side they also have to build the enthusiasm as you talked about previously. look, he won iowa in 2008. he needs those electoral college votes come november. >> all right. i'm told we have a hard out in two minutes. and that's tough with you, my friend. let's take the top four contenders, mitt, newt, paul, santorum. of those four -- >> not necessarily. i mean, we don't know what's going to happen tonight. >> right now. just right now. >> according to polls. >> according to polls right now, of the top four who do you want to see go head to head?

>> the obama campaign would probably say give us congressman ron paul but i think it will be mitt romney. traditionally the republicans pick the guy who lost last time. he lost to mccain and typically that's how it happens. but i want to remind folks watching one thing -- >> we have 60 seconds. the numbers, the numbers. >> all this talk about iowa. all of this media attention, 25 delegates are up for tonight. what do you need to win the nomination? 2,286. that's why i believe no candidate should drop out. i'm tired of all this attention put on iowa. joan that gold buberg with "the national review," he's right in the newspaper today, and look you shouldn't put this much attention on iowa. 25 delegates out of 2,286. jon huntsman is right, skip iowa and still win the nomination. >> look at this, we made it with

20 seconds to spare. >> of course. >> it's pretty good. >> the brother know how to work it now. the "cnn newsroom" continues with suzanne malveaux right after a quick break. the health n with aveeno daily moisturizing lotion. the natural oatmeal formula improves skin's health in one day, with significant improvement in 2 weeks. i found a moisturizer for life. [ female announcer ] only from aveeno.

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