we'll do it again next tuesday night. we'll see how long that goes. that does it for me. thanks very much for watching. i'm wolf blitzer in "the situation room." the news continues next on cnn. tonight, live from the cnn election center. more high drama, the volatile republican presidential contest shifts from iowa to new hampshire. can mitt romney turn an eight-vote iowa victory into what politicians call big mo and does mccain's new backing help or hurt? is iowa surprised rick santorum, right's best hope to stop romney, his first new hampshire interview is with us moments ahead. but rick perry bets, no, the texas governor abruptly reverses course, stays in the race, vows one last stand in south carolina. texas police explain why they shot and killed an eighth they shot and killed an eighth grader. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com the crackling republican

presidential race moved into new hampshire today and became a ground war. newt gingrich arrived this morning, a fourth-place finnish iowa, opened fire on the iowa winner, mitt romney. >> i find it amazing the news media continues to say he's the most electable republican when he can't even break out in his own party. i don't think -- he'll do fairly well here. this one of his three best states. but the fact is that governor romney, in the end, has a limited appeal in a conservative party. >> instead of striking back at gingrich, romney arrived in new hampshire celebrated the endorsement of senator john mccain and together they concentrated fire on president obama. >> my friends, our message, our message to president barack obama is, you can run but you can't hide from your record. >> he said if i can't turn this economy around in three years i'll be looking at a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. we're going to take back the

white house. >> romney may sound like he's looking beyond new hampshire and past his republican opponents. but his republican opponents are looking at mitt romney. jim acosta joins us tonight. jim, a narrow, eight-vote victory in the state of iowa, mitt romney obviously know his needs a bigger victory in new hampshire. how big do they think to make clear, i'm the prohibitive front-runner? >> reporter: absolutely, john. mitt romney needs new hampshire to be a blowout after what happened in iowa. that slim eight-point -- excuse me, eight-vote margin of victory for the former massachusetts governor is not what anybody had in mind, least of all him. it was once thought if he had run the table and had one iowa and come into new hampshire and won this state, that would make him sort of an unstoppable force for the gop nomination. that didn't happen and that might explain why we're seeing john mccain out on the campaign trail with mitt romney. sort of reset the campaign, reset the tone of what's

happening here in new hampshire to remind folks that mitt romney has on his team the man who resurrected his political career four years ago, coming into the state, holding town halls like where we are standing now here in peterboro and launching his campaign on to the gop nomination and then on to not winning the presidency, but, you know, keeping his campaign going when it was looking very grim for john mccain four years ago. and you know, mitt romney has his hands full up here in new hampshire, john. you mentioned rick santorum. he's here tonight. newt gingrich was here earlier today. he has a -- there's a pro-gingrich super pac that has an ad out essentially a recycled ad from john mccain's campaign in '08, tearing into mitt romney, calling him a flip-flopper. mitt romney has his hands full. it does not hurt to have john mccain on his side. they'll be out here in a few moments. >> you can see jim acosta, the energy has moved from iowa to new hampshire as well.

live at a mitt romney event in new hampshire. jim mentioned rick santorum. he lost by eight votes in eye but declare that a huge, moral victory for a candidate who had little money, written off in the polls for months, as a long shot who wouldn't last past iowa. rick santorum, from the strong performance in iowa joins us manchest manchester, new hampshire. good to see you. first, congratulations. welcome to the fray in new hampshire. >> thank you very much. it's great to be here. in fact, back here. this is trip number 31 for me to new hampshire. i've done over 100 town hall meetings here. we're excited to get back on the ground here and surprise a few people, just like we did last time around. >> well, let's go through that. you now emerge, you are at least for this week, the conservative alternative,ed leading conservative al teternative to t romney. when you were way down in the polls, you started to surge in iowa, you say you can make the case you are the most consistent conservative in this race. i want you to listen here.

texas rick perry will see you in south carolina, disagrees. >> rick's going to have a problem when he leaves and people start vetting his background from a fiscal conservative standpoint. this guy's the king of earmarks and pork barrel spend, liaison between washington and k street. he's got real bags that he's going to have 0 explain to people and that's a problem for him. >> let's go through that, senator. with the rising in the polls, it's going to come some tougher scrutiny. ear mashes, you say they're a good thing in the senate. you stand by that, a good thing? >> well, all i said is that what the constitution provides is that congress appropriate funds and that's what we do. we appropriate funds. and as ron paul did, as jim demint did, just about every single member of congress did, when you go to congress, you make sure that when taxes go from your state to washington, d.c., you fight to make sure you

get your fair share back. >> it's not quite every -- forgive me for interrupting, it's not every single senator. john mccain, he's long opposed earmarks, a lot of people were looking for help in that fight. >> john mccain it. >> the vice president of taxpayers for common sense say in pennsylvania di $483 million >> what i would say about john mccain, the reason john mccain made earmarks a big deal he wasn't for entitlement reform. that's where the big money is. i've come out and said i'm going to cut $5 trillion over the next five years. you won't have room for earmarks. what we need to do is to do reform of social security and medicare and medicaid and food stamps and housing programs and ssi. i was the author of the welfare reform act. that was serious dollars. earmarks are something that's focused in by people who simply aren't willing to take on the tough problems. i took on the tough problems. and i also said that when earmarks got abusive, we should

end them. i agree with that. but the idea that earmarks are the problem in washington, d.c. is ridiculous. the problem are the entitlement programs and this desire to spend more money and that's what i've taken on in my career. i've been for the balanced budget aemth of the constitution. it's one of the major plugs of my campaign. you'll see someone as tough on spending as anybody. >> as you make that case in new hampshire, you know, you run into tea party people who disagree with you on earmarks. you mentioned entitlements. we've had this conversation in the past. you voted for the medicare prescription drug benefit. you say essentially you're holding your nose, you didn't lead the charge for that legislation but when it came to the floor you decided it was worth voting for. listen, your own voice last june, you sound more optimist ex-about the program. >> did anybody ever look at medicare prescription drug plan? the medicare prescription drug plan is exactly the model paul ryan is asking. we, quote, shoved that down the

throats of the american public. no, we didn't, we gave them a choice. seniors loved the medicare prescription plan and that's what we are proposing for medicare, give people resources to go out and choose for themselves as what's best for themselves. >> again, a lot of tea party voters and this may come up in the new debates as well, think that medicare prescription drugs was a disaster, washington expanding its reach. a good vote? >> well, what i said was, at that town hall meeting, and what i'll say again is the same thing, that the model we used was a private sector model. one of the reasons i held my nose and voted for it we did have a private sector model for medicare prescription drugs which was in fact a model that paul ryan used. we also had a medicare advantage program which took the one size fits all medicare program in the same way that ryan is trying to do and give people an option for the private sector and finally we had a provision in there for health saved accounts something for that i have been fighting for 15 years.

the model we used for the medicare prescription drug, which i was not for a universal benefit, once expansive, but once settled upon i said let's see if we can make this as good a program as we can to save money. well, we did. medicare prescription drug program has come in 40% under budget. i was not for and did not advocate for the comprehensive benefit, nor did advocate for it not being paid for, a lot of things in the bill set the template for reform which would save far more money than the expn expapgs of the benefit. those are the things when you're a congressman you have to make those kind of checks, make those kind of decisions that sometimes, as i said in this case was 51/49. as president you can make tougher decisions, veto bills when they're not what you want and those are the kind of things i would do. if you look at what i accomplished, as a lot of conservatives accomplished who voted that, set a template for a

major change in medicare which if it wasn't for president obama would beismented. >> you're trying to be the chief executive now and it's an important distinction. in the comment we heard you were praising the paul ryan program. it's a voucher program seniors would get so much money from the government to buy health care. if the cost of the health care then in years down the road exceed the voucher they would have to make up the difference on their own. would a president santorum be comfortable with that? >> yeah, that's exactly how the medicare prescription drug plan works john. it works that way right now. we make that available to seniors. it's similar to what paul ryan's proposing, as you know, ron wyden signed on to. the voucher does go up. the voucher does go up, based on the competitive increases driven by competition in the insurance plans which is exactly what you want. you want the private sector competing, driving down costs, improving efficiency, get rid of cme where government

micromanages health care through medicare, medicaid. that's the advantage of a ryan plan. we have right now in essence either a government-run or a government-regulated private sector insurance system. what we need is a deregulated, not unregulated, but deregulated, private sector insurance plans to reduce cost. >> and if some seniors have to dig into their pockets to pay for it, that's okay? >> well, seniors dig into their pocket right now to pay for medicare. they pay for their medicare part b subsidy. almost every senior has a mehdi grap policy. why? the policy doesn't cover things they want so they have to buy additional coverage. instead of buying your medigap policy you buy a policy that has choices to take the kind of policies and the kind of choices as to the providers who you're going to use, when you want a limited set of providers and

more benefits, a broader set of providers and fewer benefits, all of those things are choicers for seniors that they don't have to apply the money to. if they don't have what they want, they have to buy medigap insurance which is out of their pocket now. >> a lot of democrats were celebrating if you will, senator santorum, last night saying in their view you're on the extreme right on many social issues and they think for them it's a good thing that these issues will be front and center. one of the remarks you have made in the past, you know this, comes up from time to time, you were talking about same-sex marriage, talking about a texas case making its way through the courts, sodomy laws back in early 2003. you said this to the associated press, every society in the history of man has upheld the institution of marriage as a bond between a man and a woman. why? because society is based on one thing, that society is based on future of the society and that's, what, children. monogamist relationships in every society the definition of marriage has not ever to my

knowledge included homosexuality. that's not to pick on homosexually, it's not, you know. man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be, it is one thing. there are a lot of people saying, whoa, how do you connect that, homosexual behavior to bestiality? you went on to talk about bigamy. how do you connect the dots? >> hold on one second. read the quote. i said it's not. it is not. i didn't say it is. i said it's not. i'm trying to understand what you're trying to make the point on i said it's not those things. i didn't connect them. i specifically excluded them. >> you specifically exclude them. you have said that you have no problem with homosexuality. >> i said it's not. >> you have a problem with homosexual act. if a man loves a man or a woman loves a woman, you're fine with that as long as what? >> well, my -- as you know, my catholic faith teaches that it's actions that are the problems, not necessarily someone's

feelings and that's -- i was reflecting catholic teaching on the subject. i think christian teaching on the subject that one can have desires to do things which we believe are wrong but it's when you act out those things that is a problem. and i was simply reflecting that opinion and that belief structure that i happen to hold as a catholic. >> and as a president, should you reflect that in the case you have said that contraception is dangerous? >> yeah, i think both in the case of the texas case, which was the sodomy case, as well as the contraceptive case what i've said is both of those laws, i would not have voted for. i don't believe that everything that is immoral should be illegal. the government doesn't have a role to play in everything that either people of faith or no faith think are wrong or immoral. that was one. and i said it at the time that i wouldn't have voted for the texas sodomy law in place, nor would i vote to ban

contraception, though i think that, as a catholic, who the catholic church teaches that contraception is wrong, i would not do it myself. >> and, help me understand this. as a member of the house and the senate you're voting and your constituents reflect on this, is your president the president of the nation. how would you be different as a president than as a senator on the issues if at all? >> again, i didn't vote for any kind of ban on contraception nor did i vote for any ban on sodomies nor would i as president, if that's the question you're asking. what i said was that, in this whole case, that i thought the supreme court was wrong in making a constitutional right. and that's the discussion. it wasn't about my belief on the underlying law, which i said i wouldn't have supported. >> mark moral, president of the national urban league said something the other day. he was talking about a comment you made at a rally in iowa this

past sunday and told an audience that you don't want to, quote, make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money. mark said, senator santorum is per pett waiting a false and racial stereotype in an a dispraetdi desperate attempt to score political points. quite frankly, should be ashamed of yourself. how would you respond to that, senator? >> first off, mark and i have worked together on a number of issues and he knows quite well how much work i've done in the friend american community. i've worked with him at the urban league, when he was mayor of new orleans. the or thing is, i've looks that the quote. eye looks at the video. in fact, i'm confident i didn't say black. i started to say a word and sort of mumbled and changed my thought. i don't recall saying black. no one in that audience, no one listening new york reporter there, heard me say that. i think it was, from everything i see and i've looked at it

several times, i was starting to say one word and i sort of came up and with a different word and moved on and it sounded like black. but i can assure you, if you look at my record, there's no one that's worked more when is and a senator from pennsylvania in the urban communities, both black, hispanics, as well as whites. no one worked more with african-americans, whether historically black colleges. i set up a program to help historically black colleges be able to get better access to educational funds in the congress. in fact, had a summit every year for historically black colleges, not just in pennsylvania, which we have three, but also all across this country. so i will match my record against any democrat or republican in working in african-american communities. and i would specifically point to the city of chester, which is an overwhelmingly african-american community. and we were able to work with them and bring almost $1 billion worth of investment into that

community by helping them bring private sector resources and private sector jobs with some minor transportation improvements to improve access off i-95, to increase that. so match my record up. go look at it. and then look at what was probably a continuing-tied moment as opposed to something that was deliberate. and i think mark morial knows better of me than to make those statements. >> questions about the moment. you were nowhere in the polls a few weeks ago. now you dom new hampshire having essentially tied mitt romney. you have a big challenge in new hampshire this week. when we talked to iowa several s back, you were 4%, you said your wife was getting frustrated from time to time you're out there day after day away from the family and saying, rick, 4% in the polls. we've got to see her on stage with you last night, showing a big hug to our viewers. assess this moment. the country's looking at you and looking at your family in some

ways for the first time because you're at the top of the race right now. how important is she in terms of your political career, advice and the like? >> i said, if you play back my introduction, which i won't repeat because i get emotional when i think about how much my wife has sacrificed during this time, but frankly through the 16 years of being in the house and the senate and the enormous amount of time and effort i put into that work and trying to serve the people of pennsylvania, she's made a tremendous sacrifice and she's done so because she shares the same vision i have. this is something that we prayed a lot about before we decided to make this decision. frankly, the easier course would have been to stay home and to continue to work and do the things to provide my -- for my family and spend more time with her. we both felt this was something that our country needed someone to step forward who had a little different perspective on what this country needs than other

republican candidates in the race. it was a gratifying moment that the people of iowa recognized that. an affirmation to the sacrifice she's make, not just her, but all of my children making, it was worth while and we've been able to make a statement and talk about issues, about people getting jobs, particularly everybody, blue collar workers, from where karen and i grew up in southwestern pennsylvania left behind by this economy, we feel very good that we're talking about them, we're talking about life, we're talking about family, talking about being strong overseas, with an america that ycan be respected. those are things important to her and me, too. >> you got back to the hotel, did you say, honey, i told you so? >> no. actually, i'll admit, we watched cnn till you guys -- i was listening to the little package you had before jeanne moos package and i was reliving it. i was watching that late at night and enjoying the coverage. we were just sitting there

watching it and she fell asleep watching it and that was sort of the end of our evening. >> smart lady. senator rick santorum, a lot of questions in the week ahead. a big week for you in the next week in new hampshire. we'll talk more in the days ahead. appreciate it. >> thanks so much, john. >> thank you, senator. we'll take a quick break. we'll be back. more of our coverage, texas governor rick perry was going to go home to texas to reconsider his presidential bid but didn't take long, that reassessment. next, he'll be back on the trail. [ male announcer ] for sore muscles use new bengay cold therapy, it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. [ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. on my journey across america, the same technology used by physical therapists. i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me...

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drug benefit, just about everybody, he says everybody, not everybody, but just about everybody did support earmarks. that was before the tea party. can he sell those votes now? >> reporter: it's going to be tough, especially when you have his opponents highlighting that big time. he was right, he was telling truth when he talked about the fact that earmarks had been such a tiny, tiny sliver of spending, less than 1%. he knows full well it's a political hot potato, particularly within the republican sphere. so he's going to have a hard time explaining that. he already has ron paul going after him on it, as you played rick perry going after him on it. and for republicans who want to paint him as somebody who is kind of just a typical washington politician who tried to put some money away for his folks back home to make sure he got re-elected that's going to be pretty hard. >> the social issues, this is rick santorum last night in iowa, all of the purple, opposition to abortion, opposition to same-sex marriage, sometimes you know i will fight the fight, he doesn't just vote,

he fights the fight publicly helped him here, rural evangelicals. move on to new hampshire, you don't see many of those. back to the 2008 map so we can fill it in. this is mike huckabee in the republican side last night. not a lot of them here. democrats are saying, in a republican race, that we have electability as an issue as well as positions on the issues. they think santorum's out of the mainstream and they're thrilled he's in the fight. >> they're thrilled. some republicans are worried about it. last thing they want to do is have this become a campaign about social issues. the agenda that republicans want to talk about is barack obama's record on creating jobs, questions about the economy, the unemployment rate, all of the rest of it. they don't want to be talking about social issues, which tend to be very divisive, which will divide the republican party and also encourage people who care about the economy to vote the other way. so it's not the conversation they want to have. >> so we'll hear some about the social issues. this week we'll hear senator santorum focus on the economy.

>> the economy. >> he's up in new hampshire and needs blue collar voters. if santorum wants to perform well here, rick perry is waiting for him. this is mike huckabee four years ago, evangelical votes up here. remember this, fred thompson, he might be the spoiler this time. fred thompson cost mike huckabee south carolina four years ago and gave john mccain the nomination. do we take seriously rick perry's alamo? he says i'm not going to be in new hampshire but waiting for you here for one last stand? >> he's got money, a well-fund pac. one thing, one thing they took nart last night, and that is only 14% of the people who identified themselves as very conservative supported mitt romney. so they believe that they have a real opening with conservative voters, and that's who they're going after. so, you know, they think, look, mitt romney's got kind of a ceiling here that he hasn't been able to punch through and we're going to go after those

conservative voters and let the chips fall. >> they think gingrich may stumble in new hampshire and be gone. they're hoping that the perry campaign is, that santorum doesn't do nearly as well in new hampshire and he's weak when he gets here. dana, one of the fascinating things we saw today -- i call this the frenemy triangle -- go back in time, no love lost between mitt romney, john mccain, rick santorum. mccain made a choice here. he and romney went at it pretty good in 2008 but in a longer period of time in the senate he and rick santorum developed more bad blood. so john mccain had a choice. essentially a tie in iowa, mccain chooses romney. take us behind that one. >> reporter: i think it's definitely a love triangle, there's some hate but it's a love triangltriangle, no questit it with the three of them. right, romney and mccain went at it big time and they kissed and made up in the general election in 2008, and rick santorum is somebody who has always had a very, very tense relationship

with john mccain. i remember covering both of them in the united states senate, actually go back to what you and i were talking about, earmarks, john mccain is a cry sausader against earmarks and santorum was -- let's say i won't repeat the things i heard quietly about each other because this is a family-friendly television show. but the bottom line is, john mccain is a very astute politician still. he knows what he's doing. he's not a big fan of rick santorum's, especially since rick santorum puts robocalls against him in 2008 saying he doesn't have temperament to be president. this was a direct hit on rick santorum and certainly helped mitt romney, who he genuinely has become friendly after a tense relationship in 2008. >> as i watched mccain with romney, i was thinking, in a romney administration, would there be a secretary of defense,

john mccain? possibility. >> does john mccain want to be in the cabinet? last night, we were all up until 4:00 in the morning, this is 2008. this is our new map that i'm happy we're starting to fill up colors here. six nights from now we'll fill it in up new hampshire. stay with us 3:00, 4:00 in the morning. look at this, i want to focus on this first. we spent a couple of minutes on the fascinating parts where we are in the race. his is mitt romney last night, 30,015, 25%. got it it? 30,015 votes, 25%. four years ago, 30,021 votes, 25%. i mean, that is eerie. i'm sorry you an eight-vote marriagen and mitt romney gets -- he got six more votes four years ago than he got this time the exact same percentage. >> talk about not being able to punch through a ceiling. i mean hour, many millions of dollars did he spend in 2008? he spent $10 million, right? this time not as much. >> dana? >> reporter: you know what?

he couldn't punch through the ceiling, you're right about that, but he didn't fall through the floor. >> right. >> right. >> reporter: what's fascinating about those numbers coming back to iowa after having been here for a long time with mitt romney in iowa four years ago, they told me, the people who i talked to who worked for him last the time said we think we have a good retention rate. we have the voter i.d. still, we have all of our lists and we'll be able to call the people, fire it back up quickly because he wasn't competing hard here until the past few weeks, and they were right. >> winning ugly. winning ugly beats losing, i'll tell you that as a sports competitor. >> it's like he was an incumbent. >> look at this stack. michele bachmann decides 5% of the vote in iowa she needed to win iowa, abbe a strong second, she suspends her campaign. governor perry last night he told me i'm going to south carolina in the morning. after getting 10%, he reassesses, he's staying in the race. my biggest question is right here. right here. newt gingrich goes to new hampshire, he says he's going to

be newly aggressive. if he comes in behind these guys again, what about newt gingrich? is he done? >> i think he might be. i think he might be. this is getting dangerously personal for newt gingrich, i think. he's there to destroy mitt romney. and he might well succeed if n. denting him, if he does come fourth again i think that's a real problem for him. he won't have money to go to florida. he needs the money. he didn't have the money to be in iowa. so you know, that's going to be really difficult for him. that's where rick perry has a clear advantage. by the way, ron paul also has an advantage that way, in terms of fund-raising. >> dana, you were there when michele bachmann bid farewell to the race today. quick flavor? >> reporter: it was emotional. there's no question. look, we have seen a roller coaster, every single one of these candidates i should say has seen a roller coaster up and down, up and down, up until this time. i think no one was higher and no one was lower than michele bachmann because she was the first person to win, she won the ames straw poll and how to she's

out the day after the iowa caucuses. it was very difficult for her, because she was born in the state, she thought she could capture that conservative vote that we've been talking about that rick santorum ended up capturing and she couldn't catch on, for a lot of reasons. she couldn't do it? >> later we'll talk about why we were here into the early morning. but clinton county, i don't know if you were tracking us, we'll revisit. >> new show. >> it ought to be a new show. dana, thanks. gloria. president obama found a new way to infuriate congressional republicans. he gave a guy you don't recognize a job that directly affects your money.

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welcome back. kate bolduan with the latest news you need to know right now. >> john, good evening, everyone. the nation's new consumer financial protection bureau has its first boss tonight, and republicans are furious. the president used one of his executive powers to appoint richard cordray, bypassing the senate confirmation process because the white house argues congress is in recess. republicans dispute that. republicans opposed creation of the consumer watchdog and intended to block anyone the president named to run it. police in brownsville, texas, shot and killed an eighth grader this morning. 15-year-old -- the 15-year-old boy brought a weapon to school and starts waving it in the hallways. police statement says, when the student engaged officers, he was shot. no one else was hurt in the incident.

in a reversal that gets the state department out of a tight diplomatic situation, yemen's president announced today he will not travel to the u.s. for medical treatment. president abdullah saleh will stay in yemen to help the transition, away from his 33 years of one-man rule. remember, john, it had to do with him being badly burned and he was seeking treatment for that. no longer coming to the u.s. >> the state department will be happy there. kate, thanks so much. see you in a little bit. remember this, new hampshire's most influential newspaper endorses gingrich for president. now that rick santorum's surging conservative, we'll ask the publisher if he's having second thoughts. the obama administration wants to abandon the strategy that's been in place for decades. ♪ he was a 21st century global nomad ♪ ♪ home was an airport lounge and an ipad ♪

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in this half hour, new hampshire's republican kingmaker talks about rick santorum, whether he are grets his newspaper's decision to endorse newt gingrich. you'll get to wait a little longer this year. for those who may not have been glued to cnn the wee hours we have the history making moment.

simply a fascinating night in republican politics last night. mitt romney wins iowa by a mere eight votes. rick santorum surges from nowhere into a virtual tie. where is the republican race going from here? can santorum take his evangelical coalition from iowa, turn it into a blue collar economic coalition in new hampshire and move on to south carolina? a lot more to discuss about the fascinating race. let's talk to ralph reed, chairman of the faith and freedom coalition. i'll walk over here to the magic wall. ralph's rushing up the set. sometimes you get to see some of the worker bees. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> a fascinating night last night. you go back several weeks, rick santorum's at 4%, 8%, he comes up with 25%. what does this tell you first about the coalition he put together in iowa as we look forward? let's not look back, look forward, new hampshire, south carolina? the first thing it shows you this swath through the rural part of the state, this is the

huckabee vote from 200. >> there it is right there. original is huckabee, purple santorum. >> that vote basically was sloshing around, looking for somebody, various people had their moment in the sun and in the end santorum surged at right time. the second thing you see, this will have real impact when you get to new hampshire, is you look in here, where romney does well in the area of des moines, okay, particularly west des moines. >> suburbs here. >> right. i was at a precinct 223 in west des moines last night. in that one caucus, romney got 80 votes, santorum got 45, paul got 36, newt got 22. >> there's your difference. >> there's your difference. so when you get to new hampshire and you look at those suburbs in really the part of the state that is the boston suburb -- >> let's do it. back to '08 model in the republican primary, here what happens you're talking about down in here. >> yeah. and this is where you would look for romney to overperform.

it also means that when you get to south carolina, and you go down state, particularly charleston, down through myrtle beach, hilton head, this is where a lot of the so-called snowbirds, retirees, near retirees, remember, john, this is a very different state demographically, socioeconomically than it was when bush and mccain went mono a mono in 2000. the suburbs around greenville and spartanburg look more like atlanta than they did 12 years ago. >> that's up here. >> look for romney to do extremely well here, look for santorum and perry to do well up here and the election's won in the center speen of tine of the >> perry says i'm reassessing. he wakes up this morning and goes for a jog and says, i'm going to stay in this. skip new hampshire, come here. south carolina's now rick perry's alamo. the question is, if santorum stumble a bit, if gingrich comes

in fourth again, is there a chance for perry to reassert himself here, or is he likely to end up being fred tompson, a spoiler role, taking some of the vote up here and denying santorum or a newt comeback. >> a lot of it, as you indicate, depends what santorum does in new hampshire. i think if he were to finnish the top three he could come to south carolina with a head of steam. romney, of course, is thrilled to hear that perry's staying in because he's hoping that perry plays the thompson role, the spoiler, particularly in greenville and spartanburg, around bob jones university, strong baptist area. this is where thompson took the votes that really prevented huckabee from getting the only 3% he needed. here's the danger for romney, though. a state that is 60% self-identified evangelical according to the '08 exit polls, by the way, he only got 1 out of 10 of those votes if santorum does as well as he did in south

carolina among self-identified evangelicals, as he did in iowa and romney does as poorly as he did four years ago, this race will be too close to call. >> you've known speaker gingrich for a long time. >> 30 years. >> you can tell governor romney's gotten under his skin and promises to more aggressive. how can the party turn to mitt romney when he can't crack 25%. can a guy in the teens in iowa if he finishes in the teens in new hampshire, can you make the case that the guy who is at 25 isn't good enough if you can't beat him? >> from newt's standpoint, he's turning himself into a human missile and firing himself right at romney. >> can he win doing that or is he doing it to help somebody else? >> not just doing that, he has to lay out a rational and a positive future oriented case for his own candidacy. and here's the challenge for santorum. gingrich, if he goes nuclear on romney, is both a blessing and a curse. he's a blessing in that he will pull romney down. but remember, he also can play

that kind of thompson role. so you look at last night, he pulled 14% of the evangelical vote. >> right. >> if that vote had come to rick, rick would have won the iowa caucuses. >> fascinating game of chess. south carolina's up third, new hampshire is next. ralph, appreciate your help. as we mentioned, new hampshire next. the man known as the republican kingmaker, we'll ask if he regrets endorsing newt gingrich. and what he sees in the week ahead for rick santorum. later the latest switch in, get this, singer, yes, here we go, hear it, right, justin timberlake's high profile romance. you want to know about that. >> on the edge of my seat. and it ha't beegoing exactly as planned. cut. cut! [ monica ] i thought we'd be on location for 3 days -- it's been 3 weeks. so i had to pick up some more things. good thing i've got the citi simplicity card. i don't get hit with a fee if i'm late with a payment... which is good because on this job, no! bigger!

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his big iowa surge made huge headlines, so how will rim santorum do in a romney rematch. joining us the publisher of "the union leader" newspaper, joe mcquaid. you endorsed newt gingrich early on. any second thoughts after rick santorum's strong performance last night? >> heck no. i think the game is just beginning. now we're in new hampshire where people actually vote >> in new hampshire, the iowa people are proud and the new hampshire people are proud as well. you get a race now. governor romney comes out with an eight-vote victory. this is an unfair question to ask you. it's t-ball, you're against romney and for gingrich, but be as far as you can can.

where's the bar for governor romney? who would be a convincing win in new hampshire for him for people to say, okay, he's our front-runner now? >> oh, i don't know. 40% or more. i -- i don't think romney did that well in iowa last night. he did six votes fewer than he did last time around, and he virtually tied with an unknown, santorum, and with ron paul who has his vote and is going to stick with it. i think the game is really up here in new hampshire. i heard what rick santorum said earlier and what ralph reed are said, and i really think that this is a fight for second place in new hampshire, and i think it's tougher for santorum than it is for the others because the base was good for him out in socially conservative iowa, and it's not so conservative here. >> a different base there. he's going to have to fight for blue collar voters, the manchester area, places like

that. we'll see if he can do it. you're behind newt and wrote an editorial in the paper today saying the economy, you think gingrich is preferable to rom anything, the voters in iowa didn't agree. newt gingrich got 13% last night and the latest curveball university poll in your state, gingrich is down at 9%. if he comes in third, fourth again, is he gone? >> oh, yeah. i think he has to finish a strong second here. i think he has to explain why he is the conservative who has done things and romney is the moderate who really hasn't done much for the republican party. >> you know your state. does he have to be more aggressive. you can be more aggressive without being negative, but you saw what happened in iowa, largely not romney campaign itself, but a romney political action committee plus the ron paul campaign that peel the the skin off speaker gingrich pretty good. what does he have to do in new hampshire to change the tide, joe? >> well, i think those -- debates have been gingrich's strength right along, and there

are two back to back. god, if they physically make it through saturday night and sunday morning, you should put him in the olympics or something, but i think that's his game, and when you say he's down in the polls here and elsewhere. well, that drubbing that he got constantly in iowa went nationally with all the national media that was reporting on it. i wouldn't expect that he was going to get anything but drubbed there, but new hampshire is still on the ground, kind of campaigning. it's only five days left. that's why i think it's stronger for gingrich really than it is for santorum. santorum is largely an unknown here, and gingrich has his record which he's going to run on. >> our own little version of the olympics. presidential politics moves on now, five days away to new hampshire and six days till the vote. thank you. we'll talk to you in the week ahead. today's moment that you probably missed, that is, if you're a good sleeper. stay with us. your label. wait! you relieve nasal congestion?

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will be giving away passafree copies of the alcoholism & addiction cure. to get yours, go to ssagesmalibubook.com. quick political update. one of our top stories. senator rick santorum has raised $1 million, our producer has been told, since last night. that will help in the week ahead in new hampshire. kate balduan here with other news you need to know and what's up with justin timberlake? >> the major breaking story you've been worried about all day long, i know. >> can't wait to hear. >> this according to "us weekly," on again and off again