and a very good morning to you. it is an early start. and i'm ashleigh banfield. >> i'm zoraida sambolin. we are bringing you the news from a to z. it is thursday, january 19th. let's get started. amazing new details overnight in the italian cruise ship disaster. a stunning admission from the captain saying that he ordered

the turn too late. >> and also in politics, newt gingrich is making up some ground you might call it. he is closing the gap the front-runner mitt romney in south carolina. trouble may be brewing, though. his daughters are having to come to his defense after an interview which is scheduled for today is about to go after him from his ex-wife. >> and a rare winter storm that pounded the pacific northwest. it is now heading east. rob is tracking the forecast. where it will go next and how much snow we are actually talking about this morning. don't know if you're a tune or it's been a while since you were a student. things are different now. reading on an ipad. how about reading your textbook on an ipad? >> that would be fantastic. >> how nice would it be not having that backpack that weighs 50 pounds.

rescuers resumed their search for the nearly two dozen missing cruise ship passengers. new fears this morning that stormy weather could push the doomed cruise liner into deeper waters. the captain who has been the focus of this investigation admitting that he made a navigational mistake. this was according to leaked interrogation transcripts to a british newspaper. he reportedly told a judge yesterday that something went wrong while at the helm. he says, quote, i was navigating by sight because i knew the depths well and i had done this maneuver three or four times but this time, i ordered the turn too late. and i ended up in water that was too shallow. >> we're also getting some incredible new evidence this morning as we look at these pictures once again of the passengers who were stranded on the listing vessel. the time line, the full transcript from the port authority has given us this information. 10:06 p.m., the police are first made aware of problems.

10:14, the ship officials say this, it's only a power outage. and then 10:26, the captain actually, finally calls the coast guard. this is 20 minutes into this thing and reports there is something along the lines of an open hole in the ship. at 10:48, we're now 42 minutes into this, the coast guard is told that they're actually under an evaluation but then nearly an hour later, the actual evacuation process begins. >> we are joined live on the phone from florence, italy. if we could talk about the chronology here. because it strikes us that at 9:45 p.m. is when the ship struck the rock formation and actually at 10:03 p.m. it was a passenger who called police to tell them that there was a problem on board. >> reporter: that's right. you know, you have to think about how traumatic this was as people on board were probably

starting to panic, wondering among themselves what was going on. you have people feeling the shudder, the lights are going out. then you have a lot of the italians calling the emergency numbers here to either the port on the mainland, calling their relatives who then called emergency numbers. as more details emerge about what happened that night, you can only imagine how difficult and scary it was for these passengers. meanwhile, the captain is under continuing investigation right now. as the evidence comes forward, he is more and more in trouble. a lot of people, a lot of legal strategists are telling me he's making these admissions, yes, i ordered the turn too far. potentially we don't know if this is strategic, potentially to set himself up for a plea bargain, called here an abbreviated trial in which he could potentially admit a certain amount of guilt for a

lesser sentence. that seems to be why he's making these admissions at this point, with his lawyer's direction. >> one last thing. we're going to lose you here in a moment. i wanted to know about the house arrest and what is the latest on the appeal of that? >> reporter: the prosecutor in the province in control of this situation has appealed to the judge in grocetto. >> barbie nadeau reporting live from italy. thank you very much. in about 30 minutes from now, we'll talk to captain jim staples. he's been a captain for 20 years. about whether he is surprised this accident didn't happen sooner. tonight on 8:00 eastern on cnn, five candidates will go head to head and head to head to head. they'll debate for two hours for that republican nomination. did i do enough of those head to head to head? we have two days now, two days before the critical south carolina primary.

a lot of people saying it could be all over by then. some big problems for newt gingrich. abc news is about to hit the airwaves with an interview with maryann gingrich, his second wife, on who he is reported to have cheated and is now with his third wife, calista. they are concerned about this story. his daughters from his first marriage have sent a letter to abc and they're talking about some of the timing of the abc report. they write this, failure of a marriage is a terrible and emotional experience for everyone involved. anyone who has had that experience understands it is a personal tragedy, filled with regrets and sometimes differing memories of events. we will not say anything negative about our father's ex-wife. he has said before privately and publicly that he regrets any pain he may have caused in the past to the people that he loves. >> and newt gingrich is taking another hit as well. listen to former president jimmy carter on piers morgan last night. >> gingrich in the south

carolina debate, i watched part of it, watched the first half of it. i think he has that subtlety of racism that i know quite well. >> really? >> and gingrich knows quite well that appeals to some people in georgia, particularly the right wing. >> you think he's doing it deliberate? >> i think so. he knows as well the words that you use like welfare mamas and so forth, that have been appealing in the past. in those days of segregation of the races. he's appealing for that in south carolina. i don't think it will pay off in the long run. >> that's a pretty serious charge to level at newt gingrich, that he's being racist. >> i wouldn't say he's racest but you knows the subtle words to use. >> interesting distinction that he was trying to make there. the naacp, another civil rights groups have called gingrich's views on race divisive and problematic on several fronts. make sure you stay with cnn for the best political coverage on television. at 7:00 this morning, our

friend, soledad o'brien will broadcast live from charleston, south carolina. one of her real big gets, the authors of the big "the real romney." interesting stuff in that book. she'll have it tonight on "starting point." and a two-hour town hall debate live from charleston. it will be moderated by cnn anchor and chief national correspondent john king. tune in for that. we really like to get you ahead of the game. it's so early in the morning, you think we're giving you yesterday's news? heck no. we're giving you tonight's news. in a little more than three hours, something will happen that could change the way you think about the republican race. the republican party of iowa is going to publicly release the certified vote totals of the january caucuses. important? sure. why not. mitt romney will know for sure whether he really did win in that narrow eight-vote victory

over rick santorum. and you know what, there's some drepcy here. >> can wait to get those results. and the top u.s. military commander is in israel for high-level talks. this is martin dempsey's first official trip to israel. topping the agenda, concerns that iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. we're waiting for a big travel announcement from the white house. the president is going to disneyland, folks. he is heading to orlando. the speech is aimed at creating tourism and boosting more jobs here. >> you're going to disney, you should bring the girls. >> they have school. >> they have to go to school. >> there's that whole thing. >> we're minding your business now. u.s. markets closed higher across the board yesterday. the dow gained almost 1%, the nasdaq 1.5% and the s&p 500 just over 1%. >> and i hate not to just focus on upward arrows, they're great

and we love them. listen, man, this pipeline from the transatlantic pipeline folks, it's usurping political news and business news. >> it is political news and business news. it's come at a time when it got tacked on to the payroll tax holiday. the white house had 60 days to say whether they were going to approve this new pipeline, to get sticky, icky oil out of the sands. it takes a lot of work to get it out. this is people who say we don want to be independent of middle eastern oil. canada's already our biggest oil supplier. this is the kind of oil at $100 a barrel that makes financial sense in some cases to be getting this oil out of here. environmentalists hate it. they've never liked it. they've been fighting about it since the summer. the white house says it just didn't have enough time to make a 60-day decision on it. we'll be talking about the pipeline again. >> i started in this business 24 years ago and worked in alberta.

>> then what was oil a barrel? >> 19 bucks a barrel. >> it didn't make sense to squeeze -- >> they were there. >> at $100 a barrel with the way the world is gobbling up oil, any place they can find oil. does it degree rarail our push n energy? the oil companies say they've gotten better at getting this oil out and they've lowered the carbon footprint of getting the oil out. it takes more energy to make energy out of this oil. >> and money. >> by the light sweet crude that you stick a straw in the ground and suck it out. >> right. >> we want to move on to at&t. we walked in this morning and when i heard the head line of the rates going up, i thought oh, my gosh, you're kidding me. the percentage shocked me. i'm not going to share it because i could be wrong. just explain it. >> if you have an at&t wireless plan for your tablet or smartphone, you'll be paying higher prices. we'll be paying higher prices for the data plans. why? because we're gobbling up 40% more. we're using a lot more. as we're getting hooked on

smartphones and tablets, we're using more and more. the cheapest plan will be $5 more, 20 bucs a month. they'll throw a little prize in there and they're going to add 50 megabytes per month. you'll be able to send 150 more tweets, facebook posts, half an hour more streaming video. this is for new customers only t. starts sun. up until sunday -- >> new customers. new customers. so love the plan you have. i actually am trying to figure out if my ipad plan is going to go up. i pay like 15 bucks and i'm con stanley running out of data. >> you're an existing customer. the pacific northwest coping with a rare winter storm. it's a record amount at the seattle tacoma airport. the storms, guess where they're headed? east. rob marciano tracking it it in atlanta for us. good morning to you. >> good morning. take a look at this video out of

olympia. there over a foot snow falling that broke a record also. and western washington seeing some of the highest snowfall totals they've seen in decades. there is some of the video there. very, very close to seattle itself. what a different just a few miles makes, in some cases, the further down the road, they saw a ton of snow as well. power outages in washington and oregon where winds were impressive. we'll show you that in just a second. chehalis, 16 inches, olympia, 14 inches. the winds in oregon, 110 mile-an-hour wind gusts. newport, pretty populated, 95 mile-an-hour wind gusts there. very, very strong winds with this and rainfall and now especially in oregon, a lot of the rivers are in flood stage, tremendous amount of rain coming in there and flood warnings are posted for a good unk which of that. at the higher elevations, we get

some there. there's a clipper system moving across parts of midwest and western great lakes. because of that you may see delays in chicago and detroit and behind that system, guys, very, very cold air. the high temperature in minneapolis, 1 degree. we haven't really said that much this winter. >> yikes. >> that's chilly. stay warm. >> thank you far that. >> big debate, did you hear? tonight on cnn. we're pretty thrilled about it. our next guest says this man, rick perry, governor of texas, should drop out before tonight. before the debate even gets under way. why? >> you know the washington monument has been closed since august, right? it was badly damaged by the earthqua earthquake. i'll tell you about a man who sign a check for $7.5 million to fix it. >> his own money? >> his own money. i'd love to sit and chat with him for a while. give him ideas on how else he could spend that money.

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monica pier. have you been, ashleigh? >> i've never been. >> later it will be sunny and 65 degrees. perfect weather. >> it's a good time to be in california, isn't it? >> so at 17 minutes past 5:00 in the east, we want to get you an early read on some of the local news around the country that is making national headlines. >> yes. >> you'll be interested in these. we have papers from l.a. and washington, d.c. let's start in l.a. this is a bizarre story and a real one for the "csi" fans. horrible discovery on the hollywood sign. a human head was discovered by some hikers but that's not all, folks. when the dozens of police and cadaver dogs showed up they then found two hands and then found two feet. here's what might be a real clue to this mystery. this person has not been dead for that long. so they may actually be able to use the dental records for starters. but the fingerprints from those hands are still somewhat viable.

the forensics experts may be able to get in on this. they can say he has graying hair. an awful find. >> horrific. >> i've got a good story. >> good. thank you. billionaire david rubenstein is cutting a check for $7.5 million. he is going to help repair the earthquake-damaged washington monument. so one month ago, rubenstein gave $4.5 million to national zoos struggling giant panda program. love this guy. washington monument closed since the 5. 8 magnitude earthquake in august. rubenstein visited the monday yum as a little boy. he says that's memorable. he said you got a cracked monument? how can i help? >> oh, come on. >> seriously. >> did they say we have a security breach here? >> they took him seriously. >> thank you very much from the bottom of my heart. as a new american i appreciate

that. crunch time. you know what tonight is. debate time. you know what, debate-schmate. two days to go before the primary race. it is getting tighter and nastier. >> things are changing. >> we got a new orc/"time" poll. newt gingrich has kind of squeezed the lead to just ten points. it was 19 not too long ago. the momentum he's had has certainly been helping to close gap. you can see that rick santorum is running behind in third place. and look, way down at the bottom at the 6% range, that's rick perry. who's in the very last spot. our next guest says those numbers are telling. it's time for rick perry to get out of the race and then go as far as to say he should endorse newt gingrich. erickson, a friend of ours here on the program. editor in chief of redstate.com. he's posting that perry just has to go ahead and do this. all right, eric erickson, here's

what i have to say to you. is there no shot for a man in last place to transsubstantiate this position into something better like second or third? is it worth it and why would you go so far as to say quit before the debate. >> it is too early for me to process transsubstantiate. >> i want to share a secret. we have a joke going with our crew and this is what they gave me today. they gave me transsubstantiate. >> look at who you gave. >> you guys, i named that tune in 20 minutes. >> just so you know, i'm presbyterian, not catholic. >> good for you. >> those are my boys out there. let's get to the business. i do want to know why you think you have the power to say these kinds of things to a guy who's been working real hard. he has supporters. he's got money and sarah palin even said it's good to drag this thing out and get people more vetted. >> that's the problem, though. i don't know if i have the power to say it. i introduced him on stage back

in august as the jobs governor, the next president. he announced it at an event i was holding. he's going to drop out. does he quit on sunday or today? he wants someone to advance his agenda, make washington as inconsequential as possible. he's not going to be the guy to do it. i think his campaign knows it. they're winding down to drop out on sunday or monday. why not do it today? he has 6% right now. his people really like him. polls show that newt gingrich is the second most viable person for his supporters. there's still a number of undecided people. he could be the guy who makes newt gingrich win the race. >> you've got to admit he's fun to watch in a debate. >> oh, yeah. >> he's certainly the topic a lot of headlines. i want to show you how he responded to our john king who said you're running at 6%. >> the idea that we're going to do anything else other than try to impact this election, that's why we got in it.

we didn't get in it because it was our purpose in life to be the president of the united states. we did it because it was our purpose to serve this country and that's what we've been calling for and that's what we'll continue doing. >> just real quickly on that last point, do you think that rick perry is ruining the chances for newt gingrich or rick santorum to become the alternative conservative to mitt romney? >> you know, i've always said that people need to be able to convince the voters themselves. i really like rick perry. i'm afraid if he doesn't drop out before sun anden course someone else he'll be viewed legitimately as the spoiler, the guy who helped mitt romney win south carolina by refusing to drop out. he said in the interview he wanted to impact the race. the most he could have right now is to leave before saturday and endorse someone else. >> i have to get paul in here for a second. bear with me as i awkwardly get my computer up. i think we've got some maris poll numbers. you're the subject of this e-mail, my friend. you e-mailed this to he many be

with the new nbc/maris poll has newt gingrich coming in at 24%. my goodness, that sounds familiar. that's a ten-point spread. >> ten-point spread which was just like our poll. >> yes. >> here's the interesting thing about the nbc/maris poll. it was conducted on monday and tuesday. half before and half after the first debate, the one on monday night in myrtle beach. you remember newt gingrich, the pundits say had a pretty good debate, very good debate they say. mitt romney was hammered a lot over his taxes when you break down the numbers for maris, before the debate on monday when they poll half of their survey, romney had a 15-point advantage. down to five points, ashleigh, if you just like at the tuesday results. like our poll that's indicating that gingrich has momentum and romney's lead is shrinking and there's probably going to be another poll out later this morning and we'll see what that one says as well, ashleigh. >> i want you to do my taxes, you're so good with these numbers. that would be why you're our political editor.

bernard witman is president and ceo of witman insight strategies, llc. i'm going to do a bit of a switcheroo here, bernard. i want you to get my head around this eight-point lead in south carolina. there's a guy named edward true, love the last name, who was at this unique small precinct, who said i saw two votes for romney. when i looked at the results, they were recorded as 22 votes. let's hear from him and i want to ask you about. >> i seen the numbers reported by the county and then went on to check it by the precinct. and when i seen it, i had to do a double take on it. first i questioned my own self and then after seeing it again, i noticed, hey, there's something wrong here. >> okay. fascinating, unbelievable, it didn't really matter when it comes to the delegate count.

but there's something about momentum and there's something about this whole lure as john avalon has wrote about, mitt romney, doing something that's never been done before. >> the truth is, if newt gingrich can actually get very close to romney or have a surprise overtaking of romney in south carolina and on top of that we find out that in fact rick santorum beat mitt romney in iowa, that can truly shake things up in florida. right now, mitt romney has a huge lead in florida, 43-19%. if you take the fact coming out of today that perhaps rick santorum actually beat romney by a handful of votes, you come in south carolina over the weekend, we find romney coming within only a couple points of newt gingrich after having such a huge lead. that could completely up-end the race in florida and have an entirely new ball game down south in the gop numbers. >> i appreciate bernard witman

rolling with the breaking news this morning. 9:15 a.m., is that when we're getting certified volts, paul? 9:15? >> yes, 9:15. out of des moines. we sent our team out there. >> we'll watch for you to be able to report to us for that on what thoser is the ficks say. >> thank you. 26 minutes past 5:00 here in the east. still to come, the captain's story is changing about what exactly happened on board the doomed cruise liner. we'll share all of the details with you. you're watching "early start." we're glad you're with us. they want a big hat...ke a ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

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what are you giggling about

over there, lady? >> you'll find out in a second. i find it kind of funny. >> she has something nasty planned. >> not nasty. >> i think transsubstantiation was enough. >> good job. >> good job from the crew. welcome to "early start," i'm ashleigh banfield. >> i'm zoraida sambolin. on the agenda, herman cain and stephen colbert holding a rally together tomorrow. colbert dubbed the event rock 'em like a herman cain, south cainolina. >> if you're a student today is going to be your day. there will be an announcement as to how apple wants to get into the textbook games. >> they own this technology, it's about time. >> why not get the textbooks into one light thing in your

backpack? >> especially for the little ones. >> 31 minutes past the hour here. time to check the stories making news this morning. rescue crews in italy are under mounting pressure this morning. they have resumed their search for nearly two dozen missing cruise ship passengers, including two americans. storms are forecasted to move in to that area in the coming days making it more difficult. also, abc news is going to be airing an interview with newt gingrich's second wife. don't forget he has a third wife now and the second wife has a few things to say that he might not like, nor might voters. former speaker of the house admitted to cheating on maryann gingrich during their 18-year marriage. he has two daughters from his first marriage and they've written a letter to abc news questioning the timing of all of this. after all, it is just two days before the south carolina primary. >> and the controversial keystone xl oil pipeline project isn't dead. president obama says he rejected the project yesterday, simply because of an arbitrary february 21st deadline for approval that was imposed by house

republicans. the white house wants to slow things down until after the november election. so they say other options can be explored. >> we want to get you back to our top story as well. we get developments every morning. today is no different. rescue crews have been able toette good back into the capsized cruise ship off the coast of italy. at this point they are worried, folks with. there is a storm approaching and there are still two dozen passengers missing. the captain is also saying something that is a little astounding. he's saying that he intended at all times to stay with the ship. according to some leaked interrogation transcripts by an italian newspaper, they are saying that he had other things to say which are somewhat damning. those were leaked. cnn can't confirm or deny them. holy cow. how's this for something? the captain apparently telling interrogators that he tripped and fell into the life boat. let me repeat that. he says he tripped and fell into the life boat.

he's also admitting that he made one of these catastrophic mistakes while driving the ship. here's a quote. i was navigating by sight because i new the depths well. i had done this maneuver three or four times before but this time i ordered the turn too late and ended up in water that was too shallow. >> jim staples joins us now on the phone. he has been a captain for 20 years, as well as a master mariner in the u.s. myrrh chan the marine. we've got to start with the navigational error. navigating by sight, is that something that is commonly done? >> no, not in this day and age when you bring a ship that close to the beach. especially at night. it's another statement that just shows how bizarre his decisionmaking was. when you have a cruise ship of this magnitude with probably the best equipment in the world, multiple different backup systems, to bring the ship in that close, just using the visual sight at night when it's hard enough to judge distance anyway, special on a moving ship when you're approaching the land

but to do that at night time is, it just shows incompetencincomp. it shows the breakdown in what we call the bridge team management system. usually when you're making an entry to port or get in close to land you'll have multiple officers up on the bridge to assist you in case you give a wrong command or make a mistake. there's always somebody there checking the systems to make sure that the system carries through. if you give a left-hand command and it should have been a right-hand command, there would be somebody there to correct that. it will be interesting to find out how many other officers were on bridge with imhad. he probably had at least one other, third officer that was up there on the regular navigational watch and himself -- >> if i may jump in here for a moment, because there's another

thing that struck us when we got the chronology of events. at 9:45 p.m. is when the ship struck the rock. at 10:03 p.m., it was actually a passenger on board that ship who contacted police. how unusual is that in the protocol? >> this is unbelievable. this is -- you know, for something like this to happen and the captain did not take immediate action to sound the general alarm to get those people to safety or get them to their boat stations to give them time to find out where they were supposed to be when this incident happened, it amazes me that this guy's decisionmaking is so poor. >> what is the protocol? we have a report that captain schettino called his boss before talking to the coast guard. is it protocol you call the coast guard first? >> no. the protocol is to make sure you get your passengers to their

boat stations and everybody is ready to abandon ship and get the people off the ship before he starts making phone calls. he could have had somebody else making those phone calls rather than himself. he needs to stay innen kmad of the vessel, not be distracted by making phone calls. >> if i could switch gears a little bit. they are worried about an environmental problem here. there are fears that the fuel will leak out from the ship's wreck. it ran aground a 30,000 square mile zone that's designated a marine mammal sanctuary. are you concerned about that? >> oh, certainly. this ship is in an unstable condition. at any time, something really catastrophic could happen. it could go into deeper waters with be she could break in half with the wave action that's coming in with this storm. this is a major, major concern. >> captain jim staples, thank you for taking time this morning. >> my pleasure. thank you. still ahead, it may not be the ipad 3 or the iphone 5,

you're waiting on that, are you? >> yes. >> she's crazy about this stuff. >> i love the ipad, love it. >> i see you walking to the ladies room with that thing. >> i always have it with me. there's a revelation for you this morning, folks. >> apple will do something in the revelation zone. they'll tell us about brand new stuff that's coming out that will help you if you're a tune or happen to like reading textbooks on vacation. >> i can't believe you just outed me like that. >> i'm kidding with, i'm kidding. forty years ago, he wasn't looking for financial advice.

back then he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future. but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement planning for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa.

good morning to you. welcome back to "early start." i'm zoraida sambolin along with ashleigh banfield. >> hey, everybody. apple fans, my colleague here probably being the number one fan among them, should be very excited about today. there will be breakthrough announcement, apparently. new technology is on the horizon but it's so secretive. i don't understand what's going on. >> they're always secretive. this is what excites me, those little ones, perhaps.

being the recipients of the news. >> the little ones with ipads, greatest thing in the world. apparently apple is expected to make a big announcement about technology involving textbooks. it's going to be done at new york's guggenheim museum. if you volcano been there, it's a lovely place to visit. our tech expert joins us. katie, i've been reading and reading and reading and reading and i still don't know what it is they're going to announce. i know it has something to do with getting textbooks on to ipads for kids and making it easier for them to haul them around in their backpacks. maybe not just kids with be maybe grown-up adult students, too. >> collectively, let's curb our enthusiasm. we're not going to see -- i'd be shocked if we did see hardware announcements today. no ipad 3 or iphone 5. the best rumors and speculation are pointing towards apple making a move in the digital textbook realm and further compartmentalizing that and making software that's easier for publishers to create

interactive content and educational textbooks. why would they make a move into this market. >> right. >> $9 billion industry per year. >> i read they were talking about doing this for free. >> well, that will be interesting and we'll learn more about that today. on the app side alone, apple gets a 30% revenue cut. if they could enter into a $9 billion textbook industry annually and one that's expected to by 2013 to get $14.5 billion, you could bet they want a percentage of market share. >> it's always a good thing if you want to get your product into a young marketplace, they might be your customers for life. didn't steve jobs, back decades ago, lobby congress to get his apple computers into classrooms and did so successfully. >> apple has always had a keen move on education. we're seeing steve jobs' previews by the biography by isaac walterson. we're seeing the talk of disrupting the digital textbook world. we're showing kids on ipads.

when i was little you got excited for 64 crayons with a built-in sharpener. now into this era, this is what kids are learning off of. this is what they know. is it a smart move for apple? absolutely. >> well, and fascinating because we always hang on every word. what's sad this time around is that it won't be steve jobs at the helm making that announcement. it will be a little bit different. katie, thanks for bet itting up early with us. >> certainly. >> they will still be reading books, it will just be on an ipad. 42 minutes past the hour. brand new evidence this morning that last week's ship wreck may not have been the first time the costa concordia has come far too close to shore. a weekly shipping news journal claims to have tracked down data showing at least one similar incident last summer where the ship reportedly passed even closer to shore than it did during last week's disaster. iran's foreign minister having a few things to say today. that that country has never tried to block the strategic

strait of hormuz. what? but in what may be an indirect warning to us here in the united states, he's cautioning iran's neighbors, don't put yourself in a, quote, dangerous position. ministers also calling on the united states to negotiate with tehran without any conditions. and david beckham is staying in l.a. are you excited about this? the english soccer star signed a new two-year contract with the los angeles galaxy. leading clubs across europe have been courting the 36-year-old midfielder the past few months just before his initial five-year galaxy deal ran out. >> i'm excited about that. i like victoria beckham's fashion. >> some people are nuts about him. >> he is awfully cute. coming up next, front-page faces for you. the faces behind the newspaper. we're talking to a face behind south carolina's largest newspaper. a new cnn/south carolina poll shows romney sliding, gingrich surging. we'll talk to him about that. you are watching "early start."

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clapping to the beat? >> yeah, i really love the music. >> i'm glad. it's nice to see you all. 4 minutes past 5:00 on the east coast. i'm ashleigh banfield. >> i'm zoraida sambolin. we have front page faces which is really the faces behind the headlines in the newspapers. we're highlighting the primary race in south carolina this

morning. a new cnn poll shows romney on top but he's losing ground while gingrich is surging. joining us live from charleston, south carolina, is robert bera. he is a political reporter in the face behind the state's largest newspaper, "the post and courier." nice to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> very happy to have you. we have a new nbc/maris poll that just came out. they're similar here. mitt romney has dropped five points in our latest south carolina poll. people that you're speaking to in south carolina, say this is really the last-ditch effort to stop romney. they don't love the alternatives. you say as well. actually your newspaper has not come out with an endorsement yet. this is very last minute. what are folks waiting for? what is missing? >> i think we just want -- i think at love of republican voters here just want to see as much as they can see before making up their mind. i've talked to a few who are

still undecided who will be looking at the debate tonight and what happens tonight and over the next two days. >> what about romney not releasing his tax returns. do you think that will affect south carolinaens? we know or we think what it would show us is that he's really rich. south carolina has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country at 9.9%. is it a liability to be rich in this race going into south carolina? and how do you think folks will react about the tax forms not being released? >> i don't know if it's a liability about being rich here. after all, john mccain who won the primary four years ago was also relatively wealthy. i think the bigger question surrounds electability. what's exactly on those tax returns. why hasn't he released them? and will, if he eventually does release them, will they show something that doesn't -- that harms him essentially? in the general election. that would make him less

electable? that's the big question and, of course, we won't know that until the returns are out. >> all right. let's talk about newt gingrich then and his electability. he's up about five points. good for him. because south carolina, he's says, is his last stand, right? tonight abc will air an interview with one of gingrich's ex-wives. we don know what that interview will say. but it's no secret he will have multiple infidelities and divorces. how do you think that will play out for him in south carolina? >> is it doesn't seem to have hurt him too much so far. if there's anything new and it becomes a headline this close to the election, yes, this could move the needle. there are evangelicals, social conservatives that would consider that i amark against him. >> you say that you volcano come out with your endorsement yet. perhaps it will happen on friday. do you have a hint, direction your newspaper is leaning in perhaps? >> that can get me in trouble.

i think it will be one of the two top runners. one of the two people atop the polls. i don't think we're going to endorse ron paul. >> thank you very much, robert behre "post and courier" of charleston, south carolina. thank you for joining us this morning. stay with cnn for the best political coverage on television. at 7:00 eastern this morning, "starting point" with soledad o'brien's forecast, live from south carolina. one of her big guests, the authors of the book "the real romney." all that ahead on "the starting point." and at 8:00 eastern, there will be a two-hour presidential debate. it will be hosted by john king. you know marky mark? >> oh, yes. >> big fan of mark wahlbergs. he was supposed to on one of the planes on 9/11.

he's talking about in a magazine what he might have done if he were on one of those planes. it is not going over well with some of the victims' families. we'll clear this up and tell you how he's responding, in just a moment. dad, why are you getting that? is there a prize in there?

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marky mark. may sound crazy. that's what one of our congressmen called it, the internets. he's part of a technology committee, too. mark wahlberg is having to issue apologies to families of 9/11. here's why. he gave an interview to "men's journal" magazine. said a couple of things. he was supposed to be on one of the planes that crashed into the world trade center on 9/11. here's what he told the magazine, quote,fy was on that plane with my kids, it wouldn't have gone down the way it did. there would have been a lot of blood in that first-class cabin and me saying we're going to land safely somewhere. don't worry. however he meant it, whether he meant it to say i would have killed those people with my bare hands to protect my kids or as some people think, why didn't those other people do that, it certainly made things uncomfortable for a lot of widows and family members who have called the comments disrespectful.

mr. wahlberg issued a formal apology, saying, to speculate about such a situation is ridiculous. and to suggest i would have done anything differently than the passengers on that plane was irresponsible. he's trying to step in and say he's sorry. >> that's always good. i have something so much lighter trending this morning also. stephen colbert and herman cain. >> take a look at that picture. >> how did herman cain agree to this. >> the event called maine like a herman cain south-cainolina primary. >> can you sing that? ♪ rock me like a herman cain >> he shares his values and says they are at least first cousins. colbert couldn't get on the south carolina ballot instead, he hijacked the herman cain ballot.

he's saying a vote for cain is a vote for colbert. >> he's been messing with the process the last couple years. i'm just dieing to know how much money is in the super pac for colbert. i think people would give money to him. >> what do you do with the money. >> still to come, a lot of stuff on the agenda, do you send e-mails from home, check your work e-mail? >> absolutely. >> we barely ever get off our blackberrys. in one country, that's considered paid o.t. >> can you imagine? >> bring it on. >> wouldn't it be great if we call got overtime for that? >> could it happen? we have laws you might want to know about. and a brand new south carolina poll out this morning. we'll share that with you. you're watching "early start." l. you've lost some weight. thanks. you noticed. these clothes are too big, so i'm donating them. how'd you do it? eating right -- whole grain. [ female announcer ] people who choose more whole grain

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good morning to you. welcome to early start. i'm zoraida sammbolin. >> i'm ashleigh banfield. 6:00 in the east. let's get you started. the battle for south carolina is in full swing as countdown is on

and brand-new breaking news. a new poll just out hours before tonight's big cnn debate, but is it going to matter? we'll let you know. the cruise ship captain reportedly admits to a mistake. he ordered that tune too late. >> not only that, but if you have been following the keystone pipeline battle and it has been pitched, you probably saw all the politicians trotting out to comment on the obama administration blocking map. republicans are livid. christine romans knows everything about this and she will come up to speed and get you up to speed on the controversial project and maybe, maybe why it's not dead yet. do you send and receive work e-mails at home, on your way home, in the car, while you're sleeping. does that qualify for overtime pay in brazil? will the u.s. follow suit? >> boy, we hope so. >> especially in this business. zoraida and i wake up at 1:15 in the morning and we're facing 50

e-mails at that point. >> which i am sure you are, too. first south carolina the time is ticking and the fight is getting tougher. i want to get you this brand-new nbc marest poll and it shows mitt romney ahead with 34% and ten points over newt gingrich coming in second and ron paul at 16% and that kind of mimics a poll we had just come out with, as well. things haven't been changing too much in the last couple days. newt gingrich has gained so as he has been narrowing that margin and might be in jeopardy because that woman in the red, mary an gingrich, set an interview with her, it's his second wife. he admitted to cheating on her with his now third wife. in fact in 2010 "esquire" magazine she did an interview and back then she said this.

"he believes what he says in public and how he lives don't have to be connected. if you believe that, then, yeah, you can run for president. he always told me that he's always going to pull the rabbit out of the hat." >> with the candidates set to debate tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern on cnn, things are really starting to heat up. from washington, our panel to chime in, erick erickson and democratic strategist bernard whitman and cnn political editor paul steinhauser. paul, you're on the hot seat first. gingrich is facing the interview and we hear excerpts are going to be aired. how do you think that will affect him leading in. >> that storyline has been out there for a long time and he's talking about how he made mistakes in his personal life and he repented for this and he dealt with this a number of

times. most voters are kind of giving a pass on this, but it really depends on what he says. his campaign, already, his surrogates active going after abc and trying to persuade them from not hearing this interview. if it does happen that he will have to talk about it most likely at our debate that will happen right behind me tonight at 8:00 eastern. stay tuned. >> all right, erick, let's talk about the poll here. i'm not sure. i imagine this new poll that we have also has perry at the bottom of the pact. you say perry should resign before the debate. rick perry's final act could be ringmaker here and have an impact. can you explain that? >> he's at 6% of the polls and most polls have shown that the overwhelming majority of his voters are newt gingrich. likewise undecided voters. sarah palin come out two days ago saying she was in south carolina and she would vote for

newt gingrich. if rick perry would do the same and leave before saturday, the momentum that perry has along with palin and perry could push him up and make him very competitive in south carolina. if you have the news coming out that mitt romney didn't win iowa and maybe it was santorum, you have a good win that newt gingrich will push him back into the lead. >> what about the leaks with his ex-wife, do you think it will affect him at all? >> people would talk about mitt romney having $15 million in cayman island accounts. the difference is most people knew this was out there. she had given an interview to "esquire" magazine a while back and people have taken that into account to a degree. >> bernard, you worked on five presidential campaigns here. you know that one bad image or one bad line can actually crash a campaign. so, let's talk about tax return heres. mitt romney says that he might

release his tax returns in april. new jersey's governor chris christie who is a big romney supporter is saying, hey, i think you need to release them sooner than later and let's listen to this and then we'll talk about it afterwards. >> what i would say if governor romney is, if you have tax returns to put out, you put them out sooner rather than later because it's better in my view to have complete disclosure, especially when you're the frontrunner. >> so, is this going to be a huge issue for him in south carolina? >> well, i think christie is right up to a point. he wants to delay the tax reports until he seals up the nomination. the last thing mitt romney can afford is to have the shift come out and be about the fact that he's a multi-millionaire and paying 15% in taxes which is less than half the rate paid by most americans and come up, again, with all the attacks that newt gingrich has labeled on mitt romney about bain capital.

one additional thing i'll say about newt gingrich is men have given him a pass for his private life but women certainly haven't. we've seen that in a cnn poll released yesterday. he's within four points of mitt romney but a huge gender gap. newt gingrich is behind romney 18 points behind women. when you have this interview coming up, it will underscore the fact that women do not see newt gingrich as an appealing figure. it's no wonder given that that mitt romney wants to delay the results and his tax returns until well after he's sealed the nomination process. >> interesting point, thank you very much. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. all right, we have something just remarkable to report to you from the des moines register. you know how we have been talking about that narrow margin in iowa and been awaiting

certification of vote totals from iowa where mitt romney won by eight votes. not so fast according to the des moines register, rick santorum finished ahead of mitt romney by 34 votes. if you think that is the end all, be all of this story and more cheering like this, wait for it. the iowa gop is now saying that there are several inaccuracies in at least 131 precincts vote totals and that there are missing vote totals in still a number of these places. sadly, eight precincts are missing vote totals entirely and here's the really bad news. we are never going to get an answer. hanging chads, breaking chads or not. we're never going to get an answer. the gop is saying it is a split decision. >> gop officials say it is a split decision. >> they will never be able to

accommodate four of these precincts that are missing to get the final total. if they are going with the messy total we have now, it changes from the iowa caucus night and now rick santorum finishing in first place by 34 votes. wow. >> didn't they say in caucuses they never do recounts either? >> they don't do recounts as they try to certify the counts. it's not about battling. here's the other weird thing. it's not going to make that much of a difference. this is the kind of thing where it's not a winner take all state. >> you know how they were calling it perhaps a sweep. he would sweep to take south carolina, also. that's a significant -- >> that's it. momentum. that's the momentum. but, wow, he's already had that momentum for the last two weeks. >> kind of rough. it is 6:09 in the east. at 8:00 eastern tonight, cnn and the southern republican leadership conference present a two-hour presidential debate live from charleston and moderated by cnn anchor and

chief national correspondent john king. well, i get you up to speed on some other major stories this morning. the story in italy and the rescuers have resumed their search for the nearly two dozen people onboard that cruise ship, passengers who are missing. time is not on the side of the folks who are working here. there is a storm coming that could push this doomed cruiseliner into deeper waters. that slide could slide deeper than the 60 feet where it is. the captain who is the focus of this investigation is making some pretty astounding admissions like, i made a navigational mistake. how about that for starters. according to some leaked interrogation transcripts that an italian newspaper got its hand on. cnn can't independently verify this, he also reportedly told a judge yesterday that something went wrong while he was actually at the helm and he said, "i was navigating by sight because i knew the depths well and i had done this maneuver three or four

times. but this time i ordered the turn too late and i ended up in water that was just too shallow." new evidence this morning surfacing on what happened aboard the oceanliner friday night. according to full transcripts at 10:06 p.m., police were made aware of problems. at 10:14 the ship officials say this is only a power outage. at 10:26 the captain calls the coast guard and says there is an open hole in the ship. at 10:48 coast guard told evacuations is under evaluation. and at 10:58 the evacuation process actually begins. want to get you to dan rivers who is live for us in italy this morning. dan, one thing i have been wondering, have you been able to hear from any of the other crew members? any one else talking and corroborating some of these things we're hearing in these transcripts and these reports?

>> well, no. the same thing. the captain after he left several hundred people onboard. now, he is being hailed as a hero in the italian press and financial newspaper, basically sort of saying, you know, the passengers ended up taking charge in the situation and didn't want anyone in the situation and then sort of being implied and calling captain from leaving the ship . but anything that has come out of the woodwork to talk.

call it a bit of a sister ship and sounds like he had not been on board, it would have been even worse. put his own safety aside and get a grip on the situation, after you say, more than an hour before the evacuations started. >> all right, dan, thank you so much. keep your eye on things as the weather continues to change there. dan rivers reporting live for us this morning. every morning we give you an early start to your day. stories evolving now. the des moines register reporting this morning rick santorum actually finished ahead of mitt romney by 34 votes. the republican party of iowa now saying there are several inaccuracies and 131 precincts. 8 precincts are missing data and they will never be certified. guess what, we'll never get an answer.

it is being called now, a split decision by the gop. other news, the top u.s. military commander is in israel for some very high-level talks. the visit is the head of the joint chiefs martin dempsey first official trip to israel since he assumed that command and topping the agenda, concerns that iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. we are waiting for a big travel announcement from the white house. the president is going to disney world to give a speech aimed at boosting tourism and creating more jobs. the president wants to make it easier for people in places like brazil and china to get travel visas. you have been probably seeing a lot of incredible pictures out of seattle where they had their whole year's total in one day. all that stuff they have been dealing with in the pacific northwest is going to progress its way right across the country to the northeast. you can bet your bottom dollar where you might see something where you live. rob marciano is standing by in the weather center for us. you're smiling, you're smiling

because we're going to get a snow storm, my friend. >> a little bit of snowfall and fill the res voyeurs. >> gives you plenty to talk about, too. >> some other videos i want to show you. you have seen the seattle video and this out of olympia, which set a record, as well. over a foot there. tough drive unless you have a 4 by 4 jeep. washington just south and east of tacoma and get out there in the sit and spin and enjoy your day from school. seattle schools closed, once again, this morning. another piece of energy coming in from the pacific northwest and california. coating some of that snow in seattle and rainfall across parts of portland. 16 inches, as well and olympia seeing 14 inches and seattle seeing almost 8 inches. the winds were the other big stories and numerous trees and power lines down across parts of oregon.

1 110-mile-per-hour wind gusts and yachats. flood watches are posted, as well, not only because of the melting snow, but because of the tremendous amount of rain and some of the rain turning into heavy mountain snow and winter storm warnings are posted and even a blizzard warning for the front range of the colorado rockies. i meant this to be the northern midwest, anyway, 27 wind chill degree temperature in atlanta, but in minneapolis and fargo, temperatures feel like 42 and 43 degrees below zero. just give you a little bit of a taste. >> i knew it was coming eventually, i just didn't want you to smile about it. >> good morning to you, thanks, rob. we're continuing to follow breaking news. new results show santorum ahead of romney. gathering reaction, including reaction from mitt romney. also ahead on "early start" republicans are furious. obama rejects the keystone oil

pipeline. why the president says it is the republicans who actually forced him to make that decision. if you are on your blackberry, smartphone, iphone all the time and you're doing work from home, the train, the bus, on your off time, should it be o.t.? one country thinks so. what about us? you're watching "early start." so, how was school today ? i have to be a tree in the school play. good. you like trees. well, i like climbing them, but i've never been one. good point. ( captain ) this is your captain speaking. annie gets to be the princess. oh... but she has to kiss a boy. and he's dressed up like a big green frog ! ewww. ( announcer ) fly without putting your life on pause. be yourself nonstop. american airlines.

didn't think we would bring you iowa results this morning, felt that was a story several weeks old. there are brand-new iowa results and the winner was not mitt romney. according to it des moines iowa register it has new gop numbers that actually has rick santorum ahead of mitt romney by 34 votes. and i got to be honest with you, the morning after iowa, we brought you the numbers that we felt would be possibly the ones that would be certified, as

expected today, certification of the votes. and they read more along these lines. romney at 30,015 and santorum at 30,007. two of them in a dead heat at 25% of the votes. but by all intents and purposes, this was classified as a romney win, not according to the "des moines iowa register" today. >> rick santorum total number 29.839 and mitt romney 29,805. a change for santorum and mitt romney minus 210. but it put santorum ahead. mitt romney has a response to this and he released the following statement. "the results from the iowa caucus night revealed a virtual tie. i would like to thank the iowa republican party for their careful attention to the caucus process and we once again recognize rick santorum performance in the state.

the iowa caucuses, with record turnout, were a great start to defeating president obama in iowa and else where in the general election." >> it is because we still have a lot of missing votes and the iowa gop is saying, i'm very sorry, but we're never, ever going to get to the bottom of it. several precincts that have lost votes completely and we have errors in over 130 different precincts. perhaps he's looking at that saying who knows who won. >> the reason that he mentions virtual tie in his response is the party verdict, the official dw gop stand on this, it is a split decision. so, we're going to get cnn political editor paul steinhauser to weigh in on this. paul, what do you make of this? perhaps we were originally talking about south carolina that this was going to be a three peat for romney, but he already got the momentum going. >> he got the momentum going and what is done is done.

if i was rick santorum's campaign and i already e-mailed them to see if they have reaction and i'm sure they are. if was rick santorum's campaign, i would be yelling and screaming about this. we saw rick santorum saying maybe he did when all the votes are recertified and maybe he won in iowa. if i was santorum i would be talking about this nonstop and the north charleston coliseum because he needs a shot in the arm right now. this may help a little bit. for romney, i don't think it will make much of a difference. he has other issues he has to deal with, the tax story and his poll numbers starting to drop here in south carolina. >> but how unusual is this? this craziness that is happening in iowa? >> it is very crazy. and if i was the iowa gop i would be maybe a little egg on their face on this one because, we, as they say, according to the "des moines register" we

will never know who did win in the caucuses on january 3rd. we have shannon travis, our political reporter out there on the ground in des moines and once he has more reporting, we'll be sharing that with you, but, yeah, this is, i guess, you could say, a little embarrass for them. >> this is not the first time this has happened. a history of incomplete or imperfect results which begs the question, if there were only eight votes separating them a couple weeks ago when we had the final results out live and breaking on our air, why didn't the santorum camp go after that a little more knowing full well there was a potential for a mess and perhaps a win? >> well, there's no, remember, in the caucuses there's no process for any kind of recount or anything like that. and at the time, the chairman out there, the iowa gop said, listen, it will take about a two-week process to certify the vote. so, even though we went with, you know, everybody reported, obviously, the eight-vote

victory, if you can call it a victory for romney, we did know all this time that there was eventually going to be a certified count and, well, here it is. i guess it doesn't clear up that much, does it? >> just for a little perspective here, i was reading this and i thought it was interesting. the process of the caucuses are a loose process and counted by hand as witnesses gather around. about as precise as choosing a class president. so, not really unexpected there would be a problem. is it really just because there was that eight-vote difference? >> this has been one crazy campaign and when you have an eight-vote victory and an eight-vote margin you know it's a recipe of trouble and we got it. >> you know, here's something that we were talking about earlier on in the program, paul and i know you were awake because you were part of that political panel and that was john, one of our amazing contributors yesterday. this may not be a romney win after all and a guy named edward

true who was actually trying very hard to tell the gop, i saw a mistake. i saw a mistake with my own eyes that romney had two votes in my precinct and it was registered as 22. but he got a blot of blowback it seemed from the reporting that we did here and that john avalon was able to uncover. i don't get it. why wouldn't have be trying to figure out if that was a mistake? that was enough to change the results yesterday. >> yeah, because there was a 20-point margin he was saying from the county where he is located. but the iowa gop at the time did say, listen, we're looking into that and, of course, a two-week process on the certification. unfortunately, now, according to the "des moines register" reporting, we'll never know because some of these precincts are incomplete. so, this is a question mark, i guess, for posparity. >> maybe what that does is make moot all these prognosticators

who said if that is true, the momentum is lost. you know, romney doesn't get to have a place in history as having won the first two iowa and new hampshire. but i don't know if momentum is an issue if you have an unofficial draw. >> paul, if you hang on for a minute, i would like to bring in bernard whitman. he was with us earlier. and you're hearing all this wild craziness and what do you make now of this change in iowa? >> i think this underscores the fact that the gop primary circuit has been nothing more than a side show and a carnival. you had herman cain, michele bachmann and anybody but romney and what this shows is that mitt romney, in fact, did not win the iowa caucus and i think this is mitt romney's biggest nightmare going into south carolina where he thought this is sort of shocking. south carolina is going to be the place that coronates me. now he find out he did win iowa and new hampshire and south

carolina and this takes the wind out of his sails and i have to tell you, odds on, mitt romney is going to be the nominee, but it absolutely calls into question the legitimacy of mitt romney's candidacy going forward and i think we're going to see the gop primary drag on for another few months, which is good news for the democrats. >> you call it a circus side show, and, sure, always fun to have all the rest, but the same thing happens to the democrats, too. it gets real goofy. i believe i was so exhausted by june in 2008 watching hillary and barack obama go at it that we called it a circus back then, too. here's my question for you, mr. democrat. how are the democrats going to use this. will they use it and will it be a smart thing to use this sort of confusion in iowa to the democrats' advantage going into the general election? >> the great thing to be a democrat now, you don't have to. we can sit by and watch this unfold and watch newt gingrich mitt romney over this for the next few days and i think that

the real story is going to be what the effect in florida is groeg to be. we saw after mitt romney won iowa and and far ahead in florida disappeared and now g g gingrich is coming on romney's heels and i think the 24-point lead that mitt romney has right now going to florida is absolutely going to collapse. i suspect, again, mitt romney will still squeak through in south carolina and still win in florida and still ultimately be the nominee, but these questions about do the republicans really like him? can he bring out the conservative vote? what do evangelicals think? can he actually get turnout in the fall? these questions will linger and as a democrat we can simply sit by and watch the republican party fight for its soul and then try to come together in the summer and in the fall. >> all right, it is just about 6:30 here and you're watching "early start."

in case you're just joining us for the first time. we have breaking news that we're sharing with you. "the des moines register" exclusive here. indeed the winner was santorum, not mitt romney as we expected or as we had reported originally. so, we get a lot of folks weighing in on this this morning. what does this mean for the south carolina primary as we're headed into that. will it give santorum a bump? >> not only that, was mitt romney contrite enough? this was the next, you know, this was the night after the so-called loss that kind of seemed like a win because, you know, rick santorum at that point only seemed like eight points behind it and it seemed like a tie and today we're getting the reaction from mitt romney and we just got this statement into us. he's saying the results from the iowa caucus last night revealed a virtual tie. i would like to take their attention to the caucus process and we, once again, recognize rick santorum for his strong performance in the state. the iowa caucuses with record

turnout were a great start to defeating president obama in iowa and else where in the general election. so, is that enough of a statement for people to appreciate that mitt romney recognizes that maybe you didn't win and didn't matter anyway, since like you said before, the gop in this state is calling it a virtual tie. >> they are calling it a tie. they said there are holes and rick santorum did wind up with a 34-point advantage. still very close. if we had been reporting this on that night, we would have said it was a very, very close call there. >> since, i remember you were probably mired in the whole 2000 bush/gore fiasco and people set up camp trying to figure out who was trying to figure that out. we're not going to have that here, they don't do recounts typically, this is just simply a matter of missing votes,

irregularities and mistakes that are made, which is not uncommon. when you have a vote tallied this close, it does bring into question the frustration aspect of it. paul steinhauser is standing by live. i keep wondering how this affects the day going forward and i say the day because, you've been watching as these polls have just been shifting like mad throughout this race, what a difference a week can make. i feel as though today it might be a difference what a difference a day can make, am i wrong? >> no, you're right. our cnn/"time" orc poll people likely to vote in the primary made news because mitt romney's lead went from 19 points to 10 points over newt gingrich. so, let's go forward to this morning and we were talking about this earlier this morning. a brand-new poll from marist nbc. same thing. ten-point lead. let's break that poll down. they did it over two days. they did it monday and tuesday before and after that debate

monday night where people say a lot of pundits say that gingrich had a very good performance and that romney was hammered over the question of his taxes. mitt romney with a 15-point lead over gingrich. that is just people questioned monday in their poll. go to the tuesday only poll questions and, guess what, romney led by only five points. their polls show the same thing. a lot of momentum for gingrich and romney's lead shrinking. wait, there's more. there is more. a brand-new poll from politico came out taken over the last few days and they indicate a seven-point advantage for romney over gingrich. things are tightening up and that's why our debate behind me is going to be extremely interesting and very important. >> the poll master there. i want to read mitt romney's response on this issue. he said the results from the iowa caucus night revealed a virtual tie. i would like to thank the iowa republican party for their

careful attention to the caucus process and we, once again, recognize rick santorum for his strong performance in the state. the iowa caucuses, with record turnout were a great start to defeating president obama in iowa and else where in the general election. so, let's bring in paul callan, legal analyst, to chat about this. what does this mean and how does it affect the race? >> i find it to be fascinating. you would think there were teams of santorum election lawyers and romney election lawyers figuring out a way to fight this, to overturn the result one way or another. but you know what the law says in this area, there is no law in this area. >> nothing? >> nothing. zero. this is a beauty contest that is held by the republican party that can set it up anyway they want. they can do whatever they want in the process and there's no law that can cause it to be reversed. unlike a normal election where you can go into court and say this was an unfair election and that's why you're seeing

romney's statement, a very sort of congratulations. inprocess was a good process and it got the momentum going. you're not hearing, we're suing for a recount. >> because there are no recount in caucuses, right? >> you can't compel a recount. this is like a private club, the republican party in iowa and they had a little election on their own. >> how about civil action. what about a civil suit, paul? just because you're mad? >> no civil suits, what i think is strange about this, this is how we pick the president of the united states. this iowa caucus process is so critical to the momentum at the beginning of this process and the law has no control over it at all. the republicans do what they want. >> when you say it's a beauty contest, each state, gop and democratic groups, they craft their own set of standards for what they're going to do to pick their person that night. so, when we talk about law, there may be no code in justice here, but there is a law,

according to the gop's rules, they have their own rules. >> they have internal rules but what's different about the iowa caucuses. you go to a polling place and there is a governmental involvement in the primary process, then there are rules that apply. but iowa has the strange caucus set up where we're not dealing with registered voters here, we're not dealing with county clerks making sure that somebody is properly registered when they lodge their vote. in iowa, it's just, you know, each county has a club. the republican club and everybody is going to go down to the caucus and express a preference. the courts aren't going to get involved. >> do you think any changes made because of this? because, really, mitt romney has been riding on the fact that he keeps on winning whether it's 8 or 34 votes, the point is he won. do you think the process could change because of something like this? >> i don't think so. the reason i don't think so, one thing that we like about the iowa caucuses is it's one of the few areas where americans get to see a presidential candidate close up. shake his hand.

actually talk to him. get to know about his personality. and the idea is to get the person actually to go down to the caucus place and vote. >> and talk. >> where else do we get to see that? once you get to the big states like new york, new jersey or california, it's who crafts the best commercial. who does best in a big debate. i don't think we want to lose that. i don't think we want to overregulate it and get the government involved. i kind of like the iowa caucus process, even though maybe they made a little mistake here. >> might be nevada is another caucus state. >> there ruther caucus states, but iowa has national influence. after this we're off and running into the national election process moving forward. >> paul, let me ask you this, if santorum was in second place, if he were as tight as gingrich is right now, as they're headed into south carolina, do you think that perhaps this would be a bigger issue and would be looked at more closely if it was gingrich and not santorum,

perhaps. >> well, i think it would be a big issue regardless of who's involved because if gingrich had won the iowa caucuses, his momentum is enormous now going into south carolina. but i'd have to say the same thing about santorum and you have to say, if we thought santor santorum, if the public thought santorum won iowa, how would it have affected his fund-raising? would he have raised multi-billion dollars and been able to lodge a better campaign in the new hampshire primary. >> legal team would be in an uproar over this. gosh. >> they're looking at the law books. >> can they afford a legal team in the campaign. >> they're saying there is no law in iowa. the lawyers are saying, we have nobody to sue. how frustrating is that for an election lawyer. >> we have no way to sue. >> exactly. >> what's going to be fascinating is watching those final certified results are actually announced and cnn is going to cover it live. coming out at 9:15 eastern time this morning. keep it right here. but in the meantime, we'll take a quick break and try to sort through how 34 votes now

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break nugs, everybody. we have a winner. i hate to laugh, but we have a strange winner. the iowa caucus count rick santorum, although the truth of the matter is we'll never know because so many votes are actually missing and not counted appropriately, but for all intents and purposes, the votes likely to be certified at 9:15 are going to be rick santorum won this race by 34 vote. our chief political correspondent here at cnn and anch anchor of "state of the union" candy crowley got up early to go over this with us. i don't know how you heard the news, this was not what we

expected necessarily, although it definitely was a possibility. >> yes, we knew that. i'm not sure what this would have changed or does change. because we knew coming out of iowa that rick santorum did really, really well. it was -- everyone knew eight votes -- there is enough room for error all along in voting by machine. this is voting by hand, people writing on papers and throwing their ballots in a box and people handcounting while people are watching. we kind of knew eight votes was probably not exactly what happened. rick santorum gets bragging rights in south carolina. not enough bragging rights, i don't think, to bring him up where he is in the polling up to newt gingrich, much less mitt romney. we knew going into new hampshire, rick santorum was very strong. wow, look how strong rick

santorum was. it didn't help him. probably would have won new hampshire. it's hard to see how that would have been 18, 19 points to rick santorum. i think in the end what we have is an asterisk, but i think history does an asterisk and we do, holy cow, this really was close. >> if i could jump in here. paul callan our legal analyst was in here with us and he said earlier that perhaps for santorum, this would have been, to be able to be declared the victor, could have given him some momentum and perhaps more money in his campaign. do you think that would have happened, even with that win? >> i just feel like the story really was how strong santorum was. he really did pick up a lot of money coming in and a lot of momentum and he wasn't able to turn it into anything in new hampshire. new hampshire wasn't really

santorum territory. now, would it have made a difference in south carolina? you know, it's just hard for me to say that because, again, it was pretty much a virtual tie. it would have changed thing on the mark but if you step back and look at the whole, we still would have seen mitt romney sort of rolling into south carolina with this big new hampshire win. >> you know, candy, on your show, i watch you every sunday and i almost watch with glee as you do magic math with polls that change seemingly on a daily basis and i can hear you laughing because it's true. i'm looking at the most recent poll that we did here with "time" and orc that had rick santorum with 16% of the vote compared to romney's 23 and everybody was talking about the ten-point spread but nobody was talking about the other spread. do you think at all, this entire headline. you can breaking out our program and are going to impact how people think they might vote as we go into this contest in two

days. >> look, south carolina is an entity into itself. i try to look at this voter by voter. if they are, if you are voting in south carolina and you are a newt gingrich supporter, do you think, oh, rick santorum won iowa by, you know, three dozen votes or so. that makes me change my mind. i just don't know. i think it does give rick santorum, you know, bragging rights. any time you read the headlines, that is a good thing. south carolina is really santorum territory, but also proving to be gingrich territory, as well. so, you know, i think that is still that battle and i don't know that it's worth enough to bring him up, again, as i say, to either gingrich level or romney level at this point. i just think it's too late and it's too not off of the mark from what we saw coming out of iowa, which was that rick santorum was really a favorite of the evangelicals.

remember we had that evangelical meeting in texas. they threw the support to santorum. >> it made a difference, didn't it? >> it didn't really move things. so, i just don't know, it certainly changes history. remember, oh, mitt romney is the first one to won iowa and new hampshire, guess what, he didn't win iowa. i think it changes that and, again, it may change it around the margins. i just don't see a major movement to change whatever the results are going to be in south carolina. >> if you can stand by for us. we have shannon travis, political reporter in des moines, iowa, on the phone this morning. this is a big story for us here. how are people reacting there? >> well, people are reacting with surprise. a lot of surprise. i've been working the phones all morning. trying to basically get confirmation of des moines register, but as it stands now, you have this swing towards rick

santorum's direction, as candy was just talking about. they are going to be releasing the official results, publicly releasing them. that's just a few hours and i'll be there. but, you know, ashleigh i have been here for five months before i left right after the caucuses and everything that candy was just saying was true in that rick santorum was the favorite of a lot of christian evangelicals here and mitt romney had a lot of support that he spent far less time campaigning in the state in the likes of rick santorum and michele bachmann and this will definitely be spun and praised by santorum's campaign, but will it really make a difference going forward and would it have made a difference going into new hampshire as candy was just mentioning. >> candy was talking about the gingrich momentum in south carolina and it is definitely southern south carolina territory for that southern boy and another big story coming out

on abc and that is that brian ross did with mary ann gingrich and she is going to say things that south carolinians don't like. i'm curious how that will all play into the mix as we try to sort of muddle through this day, shannon. >> it will be interesting to see the reaction from people. on the one hand, you've already seen gingrich's daughters pushing back against abc story with the former wife. and some people are questioning the timing. i mean, it was coming just a few days before the primary down there in south carolina. some people are questioning the timing, but we'll have to wait and see what she's actually saying and if, you know, you have a lot of religious evangelical voters in south carolina, as well, where their fidelity might play into the decision of who they vote for. so, we'll have to wait and see what things the gingrich's ex-wife is saying and how some

people might respond. i will tell you, it might be too close to the primary to do any significant polling to see if it matters. but the final, final outcome will come just a few days on saturday. so, we may never know. we may never like the impact of it. >> shannon travis, thank you. keep those dialing fingers going and great to hear from the gop on this one. >> we want to bring john avalon in here live to weigh in. here's a big question. can we call santorum the winner? >> look, we called mitt romney the winner with eight votes that turned out not to be true and now by my count, des moines register count rick perry is up 34. there are some holes, but after being granted so much time and ending presidential campaigns and giving real money and momentum and rick santorum up 34 is big, big, big news. >> yesterday, i was reading your piece in "the daily beast" this

was yesterday and your headline was, did rick santorum win the iowa caucuses and not mitt romney? how the heck did you have such a heads up on this one? we're just kind of getting these results the day after your piece. >> thank you, ashleigh, i appreciate that. this has been a story for a long time. a young guy, as i talk about the story named edward true reported the day after the caucus that mitt romney had been given 22 votes out of his precinct, when, in fact, he only received two. now, initially the state party was very dismissive of this and dismissive of him. not a precinct captain and went to a precinct and posted the results on facebook and slowly became apparent that he was backed up by the other attendies in the precinct chair. we knew going into yesterday that one county that mitt romney had 20 less votes than was

believed to have on election night. we didn't know the rest of it and the state party has been stone walling everybody saying everything from this story initially didn't have credibility to saying that it wouldn't affect the ultimate outcome. but i was suspicious and i was saying on this story and yesterday i was able to piece together the initial docs and say 100%, that was the case. mitt romney got 20% less votes than recorded and now rick santorum up 34. it's a good feeling. the problem is, you can't unring that bell. >> we're going to add clairvoyant to your title. >> john avlon, thanks for joining us. soledad o'brien just headed right to south carolina. i don't know what bus you got on, girl, but live there for us this morning and i'm sure your show is ripped apart. >> i think i should go to south carolina. wow, south carolina, i'm seeing south carolina in my future. oh, right, debate. primary. good morning, ladies.

"starting point" is just about ten minutes away and because we hear from the debate, you guys have been tackling it all morning and we're also going to talk about the real romney. the authors of a new book about mitt romney look at the man as a candidate and the human being. his past and maybe his future, as well. also in our get real segment this morning, mark wahlberg, the actor is reacting for remarks he made in a magazine about the 9/11 attacks and hear what he said would have happened if he was aboard one of those planes. that's all getting under way.

the praking news being that mitt romney didn't win iowa by the numbers, instead santorum and it wasn't newt gingrich either. because also in south carolina, they're going to see the same abc tv interview of gingrich's ex-wife mary ann who will say stuff to infidelity and cheating that his daughters from his

previous marriage won't like. the interview will run tonight on "nightline." and he's taking a hint from former president jimmy carter tells pierce morgan he thinks newt gingrich has a subtly of racism. it's hot today, it's hot. i have something totally different. latest peyton manning news coming from an unlikely source, rob lowe. he has tweeted that he is hearing manning, his fav, as he calls him, will retire. does he have some insight information? lowe is friends with the colt's owner and here's a reaction to his twitter post from archie manning. he ain't retiring, i think he would have told me. >> how would you like to be that dad? wouldn't you be the proudest dad in america? maybe the dads of all the marines out there will be prouder or equally as proud. we'll go to a quick break and coming right back at you. this is "early start."

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that's "early start" you can say the news was from a to z today. >> "starting point" coming up next with soledad o'brien. >> hi. >> hi, guys. good morning. sorry, i was having a hard time hearing you because there is so much going on. back in a diner this morning. coming to you live from charles, south carolina, as we count down to tonight's big debate on cnn. the final debate before south carolinians vote this saturday. this morning, lots of breaking news to get to out of iowa and then some big developments on big stories we've been covering overnight, as well. first and foremost, could iowa go for santorum, after all? a new recount not so simple and then mitt is flipping in the polls and newt is gaining this morning, but at the same time, newt gingrich is dealing with two controversies. we'll take a closer look at those.