>> how unusual is it that in the united states so far this winter it's been this warm? >>. >> compared to last year, we're not done quite yet. you always know if that happens we're going to deal with the heavy snow and the impact of all of that. thank you. state of the union with candy crowley starts right now. we begin with graphic proof of the primary season's roller coaster ride. and given today's gap between the top and the bottom, the new question is, whether the ride is all but over for anyone

but santorum and romney. today, ron paul on his white house bid and rivals. then, social issues go front burner. >> waging war. >> the dignity and sanctity is foundational america. >> the creator had endowed us with our rights. >> is this any wa to win in november? congresswoman michele bachmann and mitch daniels. plus, the threat to u.s. security with former cia director michael hayden and former ambassador to israel. then, a man with a plan. starbucks' ceo, howard schultz. i'm candy crowley and this is state of the union. ron paul almost has a total package a strong consistent mess rage, enough money, and motivated and surprisingly young

support system. what he doesn't have after nine contests is a single win. his estimate is the lowest of the four contenders and looking ahead, paul is in third or fourth place. joining us now is a man who is needing a breakthrough. thank you for joining us. i think it's fair to say at this point, you get all of that money and yet you don't have a win and it seems almost impossible to envision a presidential nominee that can't win in a state somewhere. look ahead for me and tell me where you can win. >> well, it all depends on how you measure winning. if you measure whether we're winning the maximum number of delegates in a state, we

actually have had a win. some of these straw votes are straw votes and sometimes they get very confused in counting votes. in iowa, for instance, we think we're going to have the most delegates out of iowa and maine and they are still very confused up there on what is going on with the popular vote. i know there's a lot of political benefit to that. but the bottom line is who is going to get the delegates and we think we're doing pretty good and it seems like our momentum is picking up. i'm actually shocked at the tremendous turnouts that we've had. we've been out on the road and we've had eight functions here in the last three days. 14,000 people have turned out and the enthusiasm seems to be growing. i know it's missing the national tv but if anybody travels with us, they know that something special is going on. >> the question, though, is, yes, you certainly prove that you can get those enthusiastic

crowds. i've seen them. you see them all the time, obviously. but the question is, does ron paul have a ceiling because you're lining the polls pretty much steady since september around 15%. it's just hard how you can put together enough delegates to win the nomination. you can perhaps influence the nomination. but in your heart of hearts, do you have a place where you think, if i can't do it here, i'm going to have to rethink this? >> you don't know until the end. i use the track analogy. i used to run very hard and i didn't decide who was going to be in first or second place. i just ran real hard. that's to be decided later on. but i just think there's every reason to believe that this momentum will continue because it is -- you know, it is relatively early. i know in a week or so there's going to be a big difference.

there's every reason that we're going to believe that we're going to be in a very good position. we know what the odds are. but, you know, nobody knows the future. you know that. >> i absolutely know it. do you for see yourself taking this all the way into august even if you get to a point where the mathematics don't add up? >> well, yeah, because we don't know where the end is going to be, whether it's may, june, july, august. i have to assume that it's going to go into august because we're not going to lock it up into may, obviously. so that in my mind i anticipate that it's going to go on for a while and that's certainly what the supporters want me to do. >> let me read something that you told your crowd yesterday. i believe you were in kansas

city last night. when you said we, the united states, we're slipping into a fascist system where it's a combination of government and big business and athor tear general rule. do you really think that the u.s. now has a fascist system and point to me some examples of that. >> no, i don't think we do but i worry about it a lot because we have a system of economics. we have interventionism. it serves the power of the special interests and they are the big banks and wealthy corporations and it starts off with a combination of partnership between big business and government. just look at the bailouts. did you see that static, i think

it was cnn. i do my best with the middle class because i understand this. but there's a coalition of big business and big government and why i'm getting more nervous is because fascism is an authoritarian and the arrest of american citizens now held indefinitely without a trial and people aren't concerned about it? if we have economic chaos in greece or something much worse, they could clamp down on us. this is why i do worry about it. we don't have this now and i even mentioned last night in the speech, i said, we're not there. at least we can come and visit and meet and have meetings like this and we can change the course because we actually change that bill on online

piracy acts. people can still act out. we're not there but there's reasons why we should not be complacent. >> let me ask you about a couple of your rivals. rick santorum has had quite a ride in the polls. do you believe from what you see today that rick santorum can beat president obama in november? >> well, i don't see how that's possible. this whole idea of talking about the social issues and who is going to pay for birth control pills, i'm worried about undermining our civil liberties, the constant war going on, the debt of $16 trillion and they are worried about birth control pills and here he wants to, you know, control people's social and lives and at the same point he voted for planned parenthood. i don't see how anybody can get rid of that and pretending that he's a conservative?

i think it's an atrocious liberal record and all of the things that he's voted for in the senate and in the house. >> are you uncomfortable -- certainly rick santorum is put in the forefront of some of this talk on social issues but there have been others in the race. are you uncomfortable with this talk about social issues? do you consider it a winning area for republicans in november? >> no. i think it's a losing position. i mean, i talk about it because i have a precise understanding of how problems are to be solved. the founders were very clear that problems like this, if there needs to be legislation of sorts, the state has the right to right the legislation that they so choose. and that solves a lot of our problems. the idea that it's a national issue of who has to pay for birth control pills, that comes from the fact that it's a national mandate that the

government controls insurance programs. the insurance -- to have true insurance, you have to have that done in the marketplace. you can't have that done by government. >> you and mitt romney seem to have a mutual truce going on. can we take that as you believing that mitt romney, if it's not yourself, is a good republican nominee for the party? >> there's not much on issues that we agree on, whether it's foreign policy or personal liberties issue or probably on taxes we might have agreement. but, no, i think they are all the same, in the same group. the only thing that i mention when people press me on that is management style. he certainly would have a more -- you know, an acceptable management style when you consider and i don't think they

would qualify. as far as issues go, i think they are the status quo and they don't want to really change anything. that's what i'm offering. >> my guess is we will be talking to you again. thank you, ron paul. we appreciate it. see you down the road. by all appearances, the republicans are fighting for the heart and soul of their own party. two people whose votes are up for grabs, mitch daniels and michele bachmann. they are here next. what's this? [ male announcer ] quaker oatmeal squares have 46 grams of whole grains... mmmm. ...and a touch of sweetness.

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we just heard from ron paul but what's the buzz on the rest of the presidential field? joining me to discuss what 2012 holds for the gop from minneapolis, former republican presidential candidate congresswoman michele bachmann and from indianapolis, mitch daniels who served both presidents reagan and george w. bush. thank you for both being here this morning. i want to start out asking you about this past week where

social issues have really come to the forefront. let me start with you, governor daniels. i know that you said some time ago, before this race got heated up, the republicans need to put social issues on the back burner and talk about the economy. are you uncomfortable with the turn of this week? >> i never used the term back burner but i do think as a matter of emphasis we ought to stress the largest single danger that america has ever faced. that's the debt that's piled up and is scheduled to be. and in this last week the president again went totally awol on this largest of subjects. he gives a state of the union speech, manages to talk 75 minutes and never mentioned it. it would be like fdr giving his in 1942 and japan never coming up. and then it says, in essence, come on, everybody, let's go broke. i think it's the most defining

among many of the important issues. it's the one that the majority of americans could be rallied on, the economy and the debt, and i just think that should be priority. >> congresswoman, i am going to ask you the same question but i want to play you a montage of your colleagues and when birth control came up here's what they had to say. >> where are the woman? when i look at this panel, i don't see one single woman representing the tens of millions of women across the country. >> imagine having a panel on women's health and they don't have any women on the panel. duh. time and time again women have been silenced in this discussion. >> the democratic women are here to say, enough. we are standing up today and

every day to fight for women and their right to make their own basic health care decisions. >> now, i play that montage, congresswoman, to show you that this always plays into the political dynamic, both the republican party and the democratic party. we're going to see emily's list go up in three states talking about an anti-women move and it's directed at republicans. does this sort of thing harm you in the fall? >> well, there is no anti--women move whatsoever. the republican party is extremely pro-women. what we saw was president obama's signature piece of legislation which is obamacare demonstrated 3-d. and the 3-d full demonstration means that one individual, the president of the united states, has unprecedented breath taking authority to make a decision about whatever health care service, whatever health care

product if he wants it offered or not offered, he'll set the prices. this is unprecedented. that's why president obama's achilles heal is obamacare. governor daniels mentioned during the state of the union speech, the president failed to talk about debt and obamacare. why? because it's unpopular. it's killing us from debt and it's also breath taking in the level of power it puts in one man, the president of the united states. >> governor, would you take as an issue that while that's how republicans feel, that's not how it's coming across? we've seen poll after poll showing that people believe that contraception should be provided to all women and that you all

are on the wrong side of the issue in terms of pr and how it looks for the party? >> i really don't know but i think michele just answered the question. this is about trompeling the freedom. they say you'll do it and whether you like it or not whether it offends your conscience or not, that's the question before that it was we'll tell you what light bulb to buy. these are the questions that i think republicans can reunite on. as the defense of individual freedom against the limitless power of the state. >> governor, i will ask you to stand by. we'll have more in a moment. does an improving economy

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we are back with mitch mitch daniels and michele bachmann. every time i ask someone if a long race is going to hurt the republicans, the stock sean, of course not, it makes us stronger. but i want to show you a couple of polls here and the first one is -- the question is, to republicans only, are you satisfied with the field of presidential candidates? in october, 66% of republicans said yes they are satisfied. now 55% said. so an 11-point drop in republicans satisfied with this field. we also see the president gaining in head to head against all of them and slightly against mitt romney. is that proof that over the course of this time republicans have hurt themselves?

>> congresswoman bachmann? >> no. the candidates are showing the flaws in each other and you're going to see the reduction in the numbers that these candidates will show but president obama hasn't necessarily been the focus of this race. that will all change. that dynamic will change very quickly. we have an excellent field of candidate and i think it's important that we recognize that these are highly qualified individuals who will do a superior job over president obama. president obama has been a disaster and they understand foreign policy. probably president obama's worst act as president as been on foreign policy. that hasn't even had the level of scrutiny that he's had. >> i imagine he would point to the killing of osama bin laden and the ending of two wars. >> of course, that's a but the

strategic is putting the united states between israel. that is a detriment to the united states and our safety. >> governor, can you concede that with each passing primary the hole that whoever becomes the nominee has to dig out of becomes deeper because they are losing support? generically republicans are. >> no, i don't. i think michele said it well. ultimately this will be a binary choice between a failed presidency and policies which could hardly have been more detrimental to job growth and investment and risk taking. they didn't design to be that way. it would be a choice between that and a future of certain decline and undebtedness and the republican party. >> governor, i want to interrupt you there because i want to ask you about the economy. because if the economy shows that it's getting better and

there are signs now that it is, there is some consumer confidence that it is at least growing, what else is in the republican arsenal? >> well, first, that will be in the republican parse nal. i think it's a prerequisite to everything else. let's not kid ourselves. this is the worst recovery ever from a serious recession and history says the deeper the down the sharper the up. it should have been a very vigorous wound vigorous one. it hasn't been. the days of the stay-at-home mom and so let's hope for better times but this is a really pathetically weak economy with storm clouds in europe, storm clouds in oil prices and i consider it very unlikely that president obama will have anything but a big negative in

terms of the biggest issues of all when it gets here. >> congresswoman, i want to ask you a final question. do you believe that this race in the republican party is down to rick santorum and mitt romney? >> well, the candidates are going up and down but we will have an eminently better nominee that president barack obama will be and we saw evidence of that on thursday at the house budget committee with chairman paul ryan taking on timothy geithner. we saw clearly by the government's own numbers that within 15 years this economy will effectively stop and all president obama can offer is $1.3 trillion of deficit in this next budget. there is no future. there is no hope with president obama having a second term. he cannot have a second term because he will not only fail to bring our economy back to reviewable, we will see people's

lives worsen as a result of it. and i believe whoever our nominee will be, i will stand with him, our party will unite, we will have a strong party and we will go on to win in 2012 because america needs a strong pro-growth president. >> michele bachmann, mitch daniels, thank you both for joining us. >> thank you. tens and thousands of protesters packed the streets in damascus. bashar al assad's security forces meet them with conflict and tear gas. what is next for that country. that's straight ahead. if you're looking for a place to get together, you came to the right place. because here at hotels.com, we're only about hotels. yeah! yeah! noooo. yeah! finding you the perfect place is all we do. welcome to hotels.com

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position where we can't actually move out into the road because once again you're exposed to sniper positions that are just around the corner on the other side of those buildings. >> elsewhere in syria, small villages full of the brave and defiant declare their independence. >> reporter: the country here in syria is in open revolt and this is a rebellion of farmers, carpenters, high school teachers. >> also in the middle east, syria's main conflict iran, high tension on the high sees. >> the uss abraham lincoln made it through the strait of hormuz. however, it was shattered by iranian ships. >> up next, mike lahayden. i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight.

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state-run tv and iran says no more crude oil to france or britain. translate that for me. >> well, first of all, candy, i wouldn't take that announcement to the bank that that's going to be a fact. there's an awful lot of compete statements made by the iranian government. >> pressure from the sanctions? is that the pressure that is on them? world pressure? >> certainly there is isolation that they are feeling and it's beginning to bite. they have to look down the road and see that it's going to get tighter, not looser. >> so does this cutting off the oil threat or just wild statement fall along the same lines as the pictures that we saw this week of ahmadinejad showing us? is this a propaganda war? >> this is not a propaganda war

but want to appear to be stronger than they are. it's very difficult to estimate what is going through their minds because they have a lot of controversy in their own society at this point. >> but do we ignore them at our own risk? it just seems to me that the chatter has gotten so loud. we hear there's a column that leon panetta sort of in his mind that israel is going to be attacked by april and all of this going on in the strait of hormuz. what is happening here? is there any reason for this tension? >> there is good reason for the tension and i don't think the ambassador is saying that we should ignore them which there is a lot of posturing going on on part of the iranians that feel under great stress. now, the danger here is that someone within the badly fractured decision making

process is going to make a bad decision and do something in the gulf, in the straits or elsewhere that will not make sense international but they will do it because it gives them some sort of domestic political advantage. >> because if they are feeling the heat inside the country, you start to find something that will rally their folks? >> yeah but they do too much rallying and the next thing you know you have the israelis and americans on their back and can't possibly want that. they've got to know that ultimately they can't win in any kind of a military confrontation. >> so what does -- what do you make about all of this chatter with israel? what is that about? >> first of all, the israelis will bomb. they are not going to allow iran to become a nuclear power in the region. neither will we. how you go about coordinating so you have the greatest impact and

that's what don lemon is over there talking about. >> let me turn to syria. the pictures coming out -- pleas from people in homs and elsewhere. i had senator lieberman on the show last week who said, listen, first we need to give these rebels training. medicine first, training second, equipment, and then we ought to arm them. >> it's really a bad situation. in fact, it's hard to imagine how it could be worse. it's stasis at a high level of government. you have a government with no political process whatsoever. an opposition that won't go away. and a president, bashar al assad who still believes that he can kill his way out of this dilemma. it's quite bad. >> we see for those people and there are people dying at their hands of their own government and the u.s. doesn't get involved and the u.s. keeps say no military and all of that.

can you describe the u.s. stakes in what is going on which looks like a civil war in syria? >> it's critical to the whole stability of the region. it has a lot to do with whether the israelis feel comfortable about doing stuff on the west bank or not and iran's posture in the region. syria is iran's only ally in the middle east. this is a critical point of confrontation. >> so do you consider what is going on in syria a threat to u.s. strategic interests? is it a threat to us in any way? >> it is a threat. and just in the terms of what the ambassador just laid out, it's an opportunity. if you have an effective regime change in syria, you take the only ally in the world away from them. now, the real dark scenario is that you stay in this stasis. what we're seeing now bleeding into syria, particularly from

iraq, is al qaeda and fundamentalism and as long as this stays frozen, you'll see the opposition, i fear, take on more of this characteristic and that can't be good. >> well, stasis as you put it, or status quo, whatever you want to call it, it doesn't sound like it's going anywhere. it sounds like it's going to continue. the u.n., what good is it at this point because what do we do? >> the u.n. can't do anything at this point or never could in this situation. the trouble is, you don't really have a leader of syria. you have a lot of different components of the leadership in syria. bashar al assad is a relatively weak guy. he's got a lot of strong people around him calling the shots and has been since he came into power but those people realize that if they give up, they are dead. that's not a very good incentive for getting something going that takes us out of this mess. >> so translate that for me. we need to give -- i don't know.

-- to people and say we won't kill you? >> there are really no good ideas and success is far from guaranteed. i can guess why senator lieberman would suggest these kinds of movements to break the stalemate. another idea that's been surfaced and is not ready for primetime is a safe haven. in northern syria, created under the turks but with broad and to give a geographic and almost philosophical area for the opposition to coalesce and become more unified. >> split syria like korea or something? >> no, we're talking about a safe haven, not dividing the country. >> it's worked in africa, like in there are no good answers at

this point. but the answer is not bashar. >> ambassador walker, general hayden, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. fareed zakaria will continue the conversation at the top of the hour. starbucks' ceo is here to give us a blunt assessment of the u.s. economy. >> we're facing, in my view, a collision course in time in terms of these problems. of blood flow.that con cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure.

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starbucks ceo is a rock star in this world and stepping in where he thinks washington has failed it's a program to help finance loans to american entrepreneurs in poor areas of the country. take a look. to his role as businessman and a

lot worried about the economy. i wanted to get your take -- you're so often in the beltway. you can ask a politician how you they think the economy is going owe you a often get a political answer. so i want to know from a ceo point of view what your feel is for the economy today. >> sure. i think that as we look at the economy today, we are looking at a bifurcated situation. at the high end, the people who are making money and have disposable income and live a life that, for the most part, is insulated from the drama of being unemployed and the mortgage crisis, those people are fine. however, there's so many people in america who are suffering and

such a lack of hope and understanding about the situation in washington. >> i guess the question is, do you sense it's any better? and here are the figures that i would point out to you. the dow jones at this point is pushing into the 13,000 level, which is the highest that we've seen in years. the unemployment rate is 8.3. not great but better than the 10%. and consumer confidence has been up for the last four weeks. you know and i know that when consumers are feeling confident it helps to drive the economy. do you sense -- this is the same kind of picture you painted four or five or six months ago. do you sense that nothing has changed? >> i really believe that you cannot use a stock market as a proxy for the economy and consumer confidence, although it's a good metric, also should not be the primary issue. i really believe that the economy perhaps on the margin has been improved. but at the same time, you have the majority of states in america who are facing

insolvency, cutting social services and the safety net for the people who need it most and the unemployment level is at a level that we should not be celebrating a the fact that we're not down from 9.1 to 8.3. people feel no hope or opportunity for jobs and as a result of that, their self-esteem, it's almost a fracturing of the morality of america when we're celebrating these kind of statistics when we have so many people in the country who can't find a job. >> so who do you blame for that? >> well, i'm not here to point blame but i do feel very -- >> well, somebody is not stepping up to the plate. >> well, i'm profoundly disappointed that the fact that we have leaders in washington who i do not believe are representing the interests of america. there should be a singular

focus. the fact is that the businesses in america who had access to credit ten careers ago, seven years ago do not have that access to credit today. that is why we decided to get involved in this job creation and raise money throughcdfis in creating microloans for small businesses. >> i wanted to give our viewers an idea of what you have talking about. you have a create jobs free usa program where visitors to starbucks or your website or wherever can contribute to a fund that backs up loans, particularly in underserviced communities for small businesses to help create jobs. so i just wanted to make that -- what you were talking about clear. >> yeah. >> and tell me at this point how many jobs this has actually

created, but i think more to the point, i have to tell you my first reaction when i talked into starbucks and saw this thing that said you can buy a rubber wrist bracelet and help create jobs. my first thing was, whoa, you know, isn't the government's job to create an atmospheric so that jobs are already created? what does it say about this country and where we are right now that u.s. citizens have to give money to a fund like a cancer, fight cancer fund, in order to create jobs? >> well, i think your question and the approach to that question is exactly right, but my view of this is i don't want to wait for washington any longer. i want to encourage businesses and business leaders to step up and recognize that we, too, have an opportunity and a responsibility to the people in the communities we serve. i do believe, and i hate to say this as a proud american, that

washington and the leadership in washington has let the country down. it's not a republican or a democratic problem. it's a problem in the fact that we are not gaining access to the leadership and the results that we need. and i think if you talk to most americans, we feel as if for some reason that washington has lost touch with the pulse of the country, and the fact that we're arguing constantly, day in and day out, about ideology, about partisanship, and everyone in washington is more concerned about re-election than the core issues of the country, there's something significantly wrong, and what i'm saying is i'm tired of the blame. forget them. i'm just going to do whatever i can to use our scale for good and encourage other businesses to join with us and try to make a difference. >> mr. schultz, i think you're an idealist here, but -- >> i'm not an idealist. i'm a proud american that is disappointed with the direction of the country. >> you ever plan on running for office, because you sound like

you might be gearing up. >> no, i have no interest in public office. i have only one interest, and that is i want the country to be on the right track. i just feel that for some reason over the last few years there's been a fracturing of understanding and sensibility about the responsibility that the leadership in washington must have to the people who are being left behind, and i'm significantly disappointed about the ideology, the partisanshipness, and obviously the way in which everyone in washington is focused on one thing right now, which is re-election. >> howard schultz, ceo of starbucks. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. so what's howard schultz's favorite coffee? get the answer on our website when you get to know the starbucks ceo at cnn.com/sotu. a check of today's top stories is next, and then animal house comes to the campaign trail.

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time for a check of today's top stories. at least 15 people were killed, 21 others injured in a suicide

bombing outside of a police academy in baghdad. today's attack comes as iraq struggles with a political crisis raising fierce about a return to the level of violence that nearly tore the country apart in 2005 and 2006. finance ministers for the european union appear set to approve a bailout package for greece. the deal is expected to be finalized tomorrow after more negotiations. the agreement would make paying down greece's crippling debt the number one priority. parts of the southern u.s. are bracing for severe weather. rain and possible tornadoes expected in southern georgia and northern florida. portions of ap lpalachia could t snow. this week is look at the slap stick side of the campaign trail. it is not new, but it's the first sighting of this election. grown men in chicken suits wandering through a gingrich event. it is gingrich's way of pecking at his rivals for backing out of

a debate. and there is this official santorum campaign ad featuring a mitt romney look alike though it struck some of us as looking more like a mix of pat buchanan and richard nixon. whatever, he roamed a warehouse with a mudslinging minnesota gun in an ad aptly titled rombo. last year in chicago romney sent a box of half eaten pizza to the obama headquarters. >> much closer, much closer. oh, my goodness. >> that was her. >> oh. >> i'm thrilled to let people also know the other side of mitt which you might not all get to see and that's -- [ laughter ] oh, dear. >> apparently a funny bone runs in the family sun matt called dad a day before the 2008 michigan primary posing