>> reporter: the president and the prime minister put on their mustard in unison. they even chewed in unison. this relationship sure looks finger-licking good. >> my buddy. >> my buddy. >> my buddy. ♪ wherever i go he goes >> reporter: jeanne moos, cnn, new york. ♪ my buddy and me jends. >> that's it for me. thanks for watching. i'm wolf blitzer in the situation room. the news continues next on cnn. good evening. i'm john king at the chooks elections center. tonight as rick santorum looks to build on his dramatic southern sweep, mitt romney's camp insists santorum can only stall not block romney's path to victory. the defense secretary gets a first-hand look at the garage aisle afghan mission just as we get word the argentina end who allegedly gunned down 16 afghan civilians was flown out of that country tonight. president obama says regime change in syria is a question of

when not if. president assad isn't listening, pressing a crackdown on the south keeping that city from south keeping that city from anti-government rebels. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com first some major international news tonight. a scary moment as the defense secretary leon panetta arrived to afghanistan. an afghan vehicle drove onto the runway area of a military base and set it afire. just as panetta's plane was landing. another major security breach but pentagon officials say no explosives were found in the vehicle and secretary panetta went on with his schedule, which includes a face-to-face promise to the afghan president hamid karzai for a thorough investigation of the shooting rampage blamed for the deaths of 16 afghan civilians this week. military officials confirm the suspected gunman, an army staff sergeant, was flown out of afghanistan tonight heading for another detention facility in kuwait, and that afghan officials were alerted to this transfer beforehand. this and other tensions have brought calls for a quicker withdrawal of american troops from afghanistan. but at the white house today

after talks with the british prime minister david cameron, president obama insisted progress is being made and insisted the timetable in place which would bring all troops home by the end of 2014 was the right one. >> i don't anticipate at this stage that we're going to be making any sudden addition al changes to the plan that we currently have. we have already taken out 10,000 of our troops. we're slated to draw down an additional 23,000 by this summer. >> let's head straight now to the pentagon and our course didn't, chris lawrence. let's deal with the transfer of the suspect here from kuwait to afghanistan. what do we know about that? >> reporter: john, i was told by a defense official a couple hours ago it was for two reasons. one the legal advice of some of the advisers to general john allen there in afghanistan. and also because they felt they

did not have anywhere adequate to detain this service member for any long length of time. remember, it's very likely that his legal proceedings will last well beyond his tour of duty. and at some point he'd probably be brought back to the united states. >> and help us out. how serious was this incident on the tarmac there in afghanistan that led secretary panetta's plane once on the ground at least to be diverted? >> reporter: it was an egregious breach of security. i mean, this was someone actually getting onto the runway. and you had this incredible d dichotomy. in washington you have the image of the president and prime minister talking about this enduring partnership with the afghans as we were getting word an afghan had tried to drive this stolen vehicle onto the runway as the secretary of defense was arriving. we're told the afghan worked on this base at camp bastion, stole this british vehicle, ran over a british soldier on the base and breached at least one layer of security before getting onto the runway and ending up in a ditch.

some of the officials we spoke with say as he was getting out of the car he was on fire, ran to another truck, and that's when the security folks were able to apprehend him, put out the fire, although he was burned over probably more than half of his body. >> chris lawrence live fours tonight on the breaks news at the pentagon. thanks so much. at that same white house event, both president obama and prime minister cameron said they are talks included potential military continues in syria. president obama said he prefers a soft landing, a transition that did not involve a bloody military intervention or a civil war. >> assad will leave power. it's not a question of if but when. and to prepare for that day, we'll continue to support plans for a transition to support the legitimate aspirations of the syrian people. >> saudi arabia today became the latest country to close its damascus embassy and remove all diplomats from syria. with russia and china still blocking a global response it's clear the assad regime is

unimpressed with what it here's from president obama and prime minister cameron. the day after retaking important ground in northern syria, the regime now target opposition strongholds in the south. >> reporter: well, john, according to activists more than half of the casualties on this day happening in the province of edlib where it seems the syrian military is now focusing its efforts. the free syrian army and the opposition enjoy a certain degree of freedom in this province, especially in the provincial capital of edlib. there were then four days of fierce fighting. now the syrian army saying it was forced to withdraw. they were also forced to withdraw from the town of bidnish activists say is repeatedly being shelled by government tanks because they say they were concerned for the population there. and also quite simply because they do not have the ammunition, the weapons that they need to actually adequately fight back. abbas, a global activist

network, is reporting based on what it says are eyewitness accounts. there are also a number of instances where women, even children were being raped, massacred as they were trying to flee. and activists and residents of the province had been warning of this for quite some time now, saying that they believe that the government, once it got done clean out homs, the city of homs it was then going to set its sights on idlib provinces. now they're warning government forces are advancing toward the turkish border, john. >> arwa damon recording from beirut. presidential politics a moment of opportunity for rick santorum after his impressive sweep of two big southern presidential primaries, and mississippi and alabama. now he's in puerto rico where the massachusetts governor is the overwhelming favorite. >> we had a pretty good night last night. [ applause ] >> thank you.

>> i can't think of a better way to celebrate than hopping on a plane and coming to puerto rico. >> governor rom if i is off the trail today raising some money. top strategist telling rotters they see no viable path for santorum to block romney from ultimately winning enough delegates to clinch the nomination. our chief political analyst gloria borger is here. this narrative the romney people coming out saying he can't win. he can't win. i want you to listen here. a lot of people criticizing governor romney's message. all he's said in the past week is i can't lose. i can't lose. i have the delegates. saying he needs to have a more direct message on the economy. he didn't do any campaign events but did an interview with fox news today. listen here. >> some who are very conservative may not be in my camp. but they will be when i become the nominee. when i face barack obama. because again, what the nation wants is someone who understands the economy, not an if you will an economic light weight. i mean, senator santorum is a nice guy but he does not understand how the economy

works. >> is that the new message he's a light weight, i'm not? >> i think that's part of it. i think he did a teletown hall this afternoon and he was also talking about his business experience. now, there's been a lot of conversations within the campaign about how do you reposition mitt romney? because the message of math, you know, be for me, i'm ahead. just doesn't really work. so they're saying, okay, what should mitt romney do? he needs to get back to talking about his economic message, to differentiate himself with rick santorum, show that he is in fact the business heavyweight. but the question really is, is that going to inspire the passion among the base? because those are the people he's really not getting to be with him. and to be fair to the santorum campaign, they're not saying they can get enough delegates. they're just saying that they can stop mitt romney from getting enough delegates. >> in the case of romney, though, is it the candidate or the campaign in the sense that the candidate speaks for the campaign. at 2:00 this morning i was

e-mailing back and forth with a romney adviser after we got off the air. he said this. a senior strategist. "we've lapsed into process. this past week rick pounded us in earned media meaning television ipt views and the like and we essentially left him alone. we'll need to engage." engage with santorum, engage with the passion? that's what we haven't seen from governor romney on a consistent basis. sometimes he does it then he fades. >> here's what's interesting. in talking to somebody who is an ally of mitt romney, he made this point to me, which is that it's ironic but mitt romney's just uncomfortable. and he may be more comfortable running in a general election than he is in a republican primary process. because he's so afraid of making a mistake because he knows that the base is so skeptical about him. he knows evangelical voters are skeptical about him. he knows tea partiers are skeptical about him. so as a result, he boxes himself in as a candidate. and he looks as uncomfortable as

he really is. >> in a bit of a box at the moment even though he has that big mathematical lead. >> but he needs to have an emotional lead at some point, right? >> exactly right. santorum campaign is pushing the narrative romney can't win the nomination and world struggle in the general election. what about the math and message for senator santorum? john braybender is a senior adviser to the santorum campaign and joins us from washington. john, first congratulations on last night. but it's pretty clear now that the romney campaign gets it, he's going to be a bit more aggressive. you just heard a little bit there. he called your candidate a light weight. listen to this. this is another interview with fox news where he tries to draw what i'll call a sharper contrast with senator santorum. >> i find it interesting that he continues to describe himself as the real conservative. this is the guy who voted against right to work. this is the guy who voted to fund planned parenthood. this is theperson who voted to raise the debt ceiling five times. >> is that your way of saying -- >> rick santorum is not a person who's an economic conservative

to my right. >> if you've got the two-man race you've been looking for is this what we're going to hear for the next we're week or or two? >> white mitt romney was writing personal checks funding planned parenthood, the largest abortion provider in the country, rick santorum was writing the law that ended partial birth abortions forever. while mitt romney was giving us big government mandated healthcare, romney care which became obama care a new entitlement if you will, rick santorum was the one who got rid of welfare and put a welfare to work program in place. you go right down the line. while rick santorums was fighting the bailouts, romney came out for them which gave birth to the tea party. so gloria said something very interesting. i think she's right. mitt romney seems uncomfortable in a republican primary. and the problem is his core values don't have don't have anything to do with republican primary dollars. >> let me ask you this. i want to ask you something about something your candidate said in puerto rico. if you could stun mitt romney in puerto rico that would begin to change this narrative and the math that says you're having good nights but can't catch

governor romney. he said this in an interview with the newspaper down there. he said, if puerto rico wasn't to get statehood he said "like any other state there has to be compliance with this and any other federal law, and that is english has to be the principal language. there are other states with more than one language such as hawaii, but to be a state of the united states, english has to be the principal language." based on what? that's not in the constitution. congress hasn't passed any law saying english must be an official language. did the senator just misspeak or is that his personal opinion? >> he's said all along that english needs to be the official language of this country. that's something that he supports very much. another interesting thing, though, as you mentioned he is down in puerto rico today looking and talking to people for votes. i notice that governor romney i think he's in new york tonight for a big fundraiser with the former head of aig and goldman sachs, the same people that he supported the bailoutsnd now he's trying to get money from them. this is the contrast the american people keep seeing. a blue-collar, conservative like rick santorum and somebody who's there with the wall street

buddies. and that's why in states like kansas where there's a lot of conservatives, rick santorum got more votes than romney, gingrich and paul combined. it's why i think he shocked the world in mississippi and alabama last night. there's an appetite for republicans to unify behind a conservative candidate to be our representative, and people understand that's our best way to beat obama. >> and answer your friends in the republican party and some of them are your close friends, john. you've worked with them on past campaigns nervous about your candidate being the nominee. they say his views on some social issues would hurt republicans with moderate women in the suburbs. they cite polls i'll show you the most recent one from bloomberg, obama versus romney is a 47-47 dead heat. obama versus santorum is obama at 50, santorum at 44. they say governor romney is a more competitive general election candidate and they make this case, and i want to give you a chance to rebutt them, that if santorum were at the top of the ticket, house candidates would suffer, senate candidates would suffer, maybe

gubernatorial candidates would suffer. >> if romney becomes our nominee what we're taking off the table number one is obama care. it's romney care. we take that issue off. we stake the bailouts off. second of all, rick santorum has extensive foreign policy experience. romney has none. if you look at the exit polls yesterday, rick santorum actually i believe did better among women voters than mitt romney did. the truth of the matter is, for conservatives and the republican party to win, we need to unify tea party and conservatives. if we stick to our core principals we'll gain seats and beat barack obama. >> interesting stretch ahead, john braebender appreciate your help tonight. we'll keep in touch as we move from puerto rico and beyond. we have a lot more politics ahead. the former homeland security head ridge explains why he's supporting romney and not his

home state senator. some say president obama is boxing himself in talking tough about iran and its nuclear program. [ male announcer ] this is the network -- a living, breathing intelligence teaching data how to do more for business. [ beeping ] in here, data knows what to do. because the network finds it and tailors it across all the right points, automating all the right actions... [ beeping ] ...to bring all the right results. it's the at&t network -- doing more with data to help business do more for customers. ♪

new poll out today in

pennsylvania shows rorz error leading in his home state bay double digits. governor romney is calling in reinforcements. picking up an endorsement today from the former pennsylvania go and homeland security secretary tomorrow ridge. you were a jon huntsman supporter, now supporting mitt romney. rick santorum was a senator when you were a governor. what's wrong with rick santorum? >> it's not what's wrong with rick it's what's right with mitt. last week was interesting, john. both member had pretty good weeks, i think mitt ended up having the better week. my advocacy for mitt romney has what i believe everything to do with having led a private sector, demonstrated his leadership in the government sector and leadership at the olympics. i know all four candidates left in the race. i just prefer mitt romney to the other three. >> i want to ask you a question. you navigated your state. you won a house district. i covered you back then and a democratic district. then you became governor in a

democratic state. democrats -- republicans having carried pennsylvania in republican mix for a very long time as you well know. are a lot of people making the argument now the longer this race goes on governor romney is being pulled to the right by candidates like senator santorum. i want you to listen here. this is governor romney giving an interview yesterday to a local station in which he talks about killing planned parenthood. we know he meant ending federal funding for it. but listen and we'll talk on the other side. >> my test is pretty simple. is the program so critical it's worth borrowing money from china to pay for it? and that basis of course you get rid of obama care. that's the easy one. but there are others. planned parenthood. we're going to get rid of that. >> there are female democrats in congress and in local government all around the country, especially in swing states, putting out statements today slamming governor romney on this. do you think the longer this race goes on the less competitive governor romney if he is the nominee will be in a general election? >> no, john, i don't. i think frankly that really competitive nature of the campaign has frankly helped him

sharpen the missage. i think all candidates, all four men remaining in the race would admit if you have single issue voters out there who are prepared to vote for the president on one issue then they all fall by the wayside. but i think at the end of the day in pennsylvania technically i have a lot of independent-thinking democrats. obviously the republicans are going to unify behind mitt once he gets the nomination in order to defeat president obama. so i'm not worried about that at all. >> you have a lot of friends in the party, sir. you served in the bush administration. you were a big state governor. you know the mum blings, some of it's public, a lot of it's private, a lot of people who like governor romney, support him say he's not quite getting there as a candidate, not connecting with blue-collar voters, not showing empathy. what's wrong with the romney message? what would your advice be to your friend? >> i think he needs to stay on the message. at the end of the day the message that i think is most appealing across the board and perhaps he needs to raise the decibel level and get into more specifics is that presidency

requires a decisionmaker, a decisive person. someone who's led from the front. he led in the private sector. he led a state. he led the olympics. and i think that message of leadership, a decisionmaker, someone who's prepared to take the tough decisions. not that i'm even going to agree with him from time to time but somebody who's demonstrated the capacity to understand and then lead through tough decisions. against a president who frankly i think who has kicked the can down the road. a president who said we need to do something with the deficit but then he dissed his own deficit reductions committee. who said we need an energy policy but he pushed the decision on the transcanada pipeline down the road. john, at the end of the day i think mitt's with the right message, need to embellish it a little bit but it is about leadership, about decision making not about speech giving. >> at the end of an interview this conversation on a scale of 1 to 10, one being no, 10 being yes, how likely is it that mitt romney can come back and beat rick santorum in his home state? >> i give it a 50-50 chance.

rick is popular among the republican primary voters. so is mitt. at the end of the day a pretty sophisticated group of voters. i know them i'm 8-0. they want somebody that can one win the general election. mitt romney can win the general election. >> good to seout. we'll be in touch with the days ahead. >> thanks. still ahead, growing praise for president obama from a conservative. in this case it's britain's conservative prime minister. in a little bit we'll have more on their partnership and their pledges to work together on afghanistan and more. next, encyclopedia britain ca moves exclusively into the digital age. that means no more heavy volumes put on the book shelf. [ shivering ] sorry. sore knee. blast of cold feels nice. why don't you use bengay zero degrees? it's the one you store in the freezer. gives that instant cold sensation.

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welcome back. here's kate bolduan with the latest news you need to know right now. >> reporter: good evening, everyone. headlines to catch you up on. elderly travelers could soon get a break at airport security. starting monday the tsa will test new procedures for passengers 75 and older. they can leave their shoes on, for one thing. same with their light outerwear and they'llen allowed to go through scanning machines several times before they would need to get a patdown. the tests will be at father airports, denver, portland, orlando and chicago's o'hare. so keep an eye out for that. and also, at least one person is dead and six students were airlifted to hospitals

after a school bus collided with a trail the this afternoon in southwestern pennsylvania. those images are so scary. 22 less severely injured students are also being treated. as many as 70 people may have been object on the bus when the accident happened. you are looking right there at a reason why a hearing in atrocities in sudan attracted overflow lines at a congressional hearing today. george clooney was one of the witnesses. senators even passed up some of their chance toss ask questions to allow clooney to have more time to speak. the sad thing, though, the story that he came to tell was absolutely awful. listen here. >> three days ago while we were in anuba mountains 15 bombs were dropped on a neighboring village. when we got there we found children filled with shrapnel, including a 9-year-old boy who had both of his hands blown off. >> in a very different story, there's also a lot of buzz today about a goldman sachs executive's resignation letter. parting shot is probably more like it. greg smith wrote a "new york times" op ed calling the

environment at goldman "toxic and destructive" and accused the firm of caring more about its profits than customers. goldman officials say the aassertions "do not reflect our values." and finally inencyclopedia loves are sure to mourn the end of an era. after 244 years encyclopedia brittanica is ending its edition. the last edition is the last. the company will now focus on its digital format encyclopedia and other educational tools. it seems everything is going the way of what is it the 8 track, cassette tape, cd? >> i guess for younger folks it's okay. but for an old foegy like me, i need to hold it. i need to hold it. >> i still feel that way about newspapers. >> if i don't have news print on my face in the morning it's not a good day. kate see you in a little bit. president obama and prime minister david cameron go from cracking basketball jokes to deadly serious conversations

about afghanistan. tonight our fareed zakaria says the president is running out of diplomatic solutions in iran. i used to love hearing that phrase... but not since i learned i have... postmenopausal osteoporosis and a high risk for fracture. i want to keep acting but a broken bone could change that. so my doctor and i chose prolia® to reduce my risk of fractures. prolia® is proven to help make bones stronger. proven to help increase bone density. i take prolia®. it's different. it's two shots a year. [announcer:] if you take prolia® (denosumab) you should not take xgeva®. prolia® can cause serious side effects, including low blood calcium levels, serious infections... ...some of which may require hospitalization, and skin inflammation, rash and eczema. tell your doctor if you develop dental problems... ...as severe jawbone problems may happen. what's out there matters to me. so does what's in here. break a leg! thanks ed. ask your doctor if prolia® is right for you.

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this half hour president obama and prime minister david cameron say they're sticking to the plan in afghanistan. our fareed zakaria tells us why he this that's a good idea. romney's third place finishes in mississippi and alabama show the gop presidential race is far from over. we're talking truth about what it will take to win. an american flag featuring president obama's face. why veterans in florida fought

to take it down. just about 30 minutes, president obama hosts the british prime minister david cameron at a state dinner at the white house. but pomp and pageantry aside, very serious business to tend. to the massacre in syria, iran's nuclear capabilities, and of course the future of the mission in afghanistan. both leaders say they'll stick to the plan in the war zone. >> today the prime minister and i reaffirmed the transition plan that we agreed to with our coalition partners. we're going to complete this mission. and we're going to do it responsibly. and nato will maintain an enduring commitment stop that afghanistan never again becomes a haven for al qaeda to attack our countries. >> cnn chief white house correspondent jessica yellin live from the white house tonight. what else did we learn today besides the words of resolve from the prime minister and president about our future in afghanistan? >> reporter: today the president said that the u.s. and its

allies will shift in 2013 from a combat role in afghanistan to a training and assist mission there. this is the first time the president has set a time for the shift in mission. it's something the secretary of defense had said a few weeks ago, but he seemed to get ahead of his boss on this one. the prime minister and the president will meet again when there's a nato summit in chicago. that happens in may. and the president said today that more details of the shift will be worked out in coordination with nato allies, so stay tuned. we'll hear more details when that meeting happens. that's this may in chicago, john. >> chief white house correspondent jessica yellin. jess, thanks. let's get some perspective of the day's major global news from my colleague fareed zakaria host of fareed zakaria gps. fareed the president with the prime minister of great britain by his side said despite the recent violence and horrors in afghanistan he sees no reason to accelerate the timetable to withdraw u.s. troops. do you think that's the final

answer? >> i believe that's the final answer. this will blow over. particularly this last event. the karan burning was seen as a kind of u.s. policy decision which in fact provoked much greater reaction among afghans. this one is seen as a one off. this was clearly not a case where any senior commander was ordering this to happen. this was an unfortunately a single very troubled individual. i also think that it would send a sign of weakness. so it's very unlikely that under this kind of pressure they would accelerate the withdrawal. >> let's shift our focus to iran. another big subject between these two leaders. president obama making clear that he wants iran to come back to the table, but also making clear that iran better come back to negotiate, not to stall this time. let's listen. >> because we have employed so many of the options that are available to us to persuade iran

to take a different course, that the window for solving this issue diplomatically is shrinking. >> pretty candid assessment there. we have sanctions in placement there's not much else more the world could do, right? >> it's true. and i think that president obama was reflecting maybe a slight frustration when he talked about the window closing. because he has boxed himself in. he has ruled out containment. he says, my policy is not containment. i don't bluff. he's talked about the iran problem in a way that was meant to satisfy some of the hawks on the right here, particularly on the campaign trail, the republican candidates. certainly the israeli government, the prime minister netanyahu. but the result is he's boxed himself in. either iran comes back to the negotiating table and negotiates what appears to me essentially as surrender, or he has not left himself with many options. >> what struck me today is you have the prime minister of great britain from the conservative party, one would think more in

tune with the republicans. listen here to this defense of president obama. >> the president's tough, reasonable approach has united the world behind unprecedented sanctions pressure on iran. and britain has played a leading role in helping to deliver an e.u.-wide oil em bar goal. alongside the financial sanctions being led by america, this embargo is dramatically increasing the pressure on the regime. >> if there's supposed to be a natural kinship between the conservative prime minister and the republican party, the republicans aren't happy today. >> no. and david cameron was reflecting the reality, which is that the president's policy on iran has been very tough. it's also been very effective because it's been multilateral. because we don't have any trade with iran. so the only way you can choke them off is to get other countries, particularly iran's neighbors, to enforce sanctions. and that only happens if they are u.n. sanction and multilateral. >> let's close. you just finished work on an important special. the global lessons, gps road map

to saving healthcare. the prime minister of great britain, is there anything, this has come up in our domestic politics in the past but let me ask the question, anyway. is there anything the united states can learn from the more government-run system in great britain? >> gosh, you know what i discovered, john, we can learn something from almost every country. taiwan which is this free market haven was adopting a new healthcare system in the 1990s. and they studied all the world systems. i asked one of their experts what did you learn from the united states? he said we learned how not to do it from the united states. all these other systems delivered better healthcare at significantly lower costs than we do. and so the british is the most extreme. that really is a kind of socialized medicine. but the administrative costs of the national health service are 5%. the administrative costs of private insurers in america is 20 to 30%. you can look at anywhere in the world and you'll find that they

in some important way or the other do it better than we do. >> fareed za car remarks as always thank you. >> a pleasure. and fareed's special "global lessons the gps road map for saving healthcare is sunday night 8:00 eastern. coming up the truth about math and message. who can and who can't really win the gop nomination? we'll crunch the numbers next. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about the cookie-cutter retirement advice ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you get at some places. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 they say you have to do this, have that, invest here ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know what? ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you can't create a retirement plan based on ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 a predetermined script. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 to understand you and your goals... ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...so together we can find real-life answers for your ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 real-life retirement. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 talk to chuck ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 and let's write a script based on your life story. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550

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rick santorum says conservatives are sending mitt romney a message. they don't want him as their

standard bearer. mitt romney says the numbers, these numbers here, don't lie. he says he has a substantial lead in the delegate chase too great for senator santorum or anyone else to overcome. here's tonight's truth. with a straight face, both can say they are right. yet eventually one of them has to be wrong. eventually. romney's advantage is indisputable. let's look at today right here. he's just shy of 500, well ahead of everyone else. you could add everybody else up and they don't get there. if newt gingrich stays in the race picking up delegates with third place finishes, scenarios that give rick santorum the benefit of the doubt just about every turn still leads you to governor romney. i won't bore you with every state in particular but i'm going to go ahead to the end of the process. look what we've given santorum. kentucky, west virginia, north carolina, indiana, wisconsin, even if he won all of those states with gingrich in the race getting some delegates, romney coming in second or coming in third and getting some delegates, look what happens. romney still clinching the nomination. still clinches the nomination.

maybe. maybe if santorum could take away california romney still clinches the nomination. santorum would also have to win some place like new jersey to deny him. even then romney would have a big lead. that's one scenario. even if you take gingrich out on theory he exits the race say after a santorum victory in louisiana. most polls suggest again even being extraordinarily generous to senator santorum that romney will be difficult to beat. let me show you that scenario. going to change the map a little bit. first we go back to where we are today. give you a scenario. even if you take speecher gingrich out, let's say again santorum wins wisconsin, indiana, switch that one, let's say he wins west virginia, we'll switch that one. he wins kentucky we'll switch that one. he wins north carolina we switch that one. being very generous to senator santorum romney still wins with gingrich out of the race and romney and santorum splitting the delegates depending whether they come in first or second. again santorum would somehow have to win california even if he did that romney would win with gingrich out of the race.

so notice i said though extremely difficult. it's not impossible. because all of these their scenarios are based on estimates. yes, in some ways informed guesstimates of how things will turn out down the road. want to be clear. our team that works on this stuff is cautious, meticulous. i would say they're the best in the business. when i got done here last night i nodded off again back at the hotel, a couple hours after our coverage ended looking again at the polling data and the delegates rules because we try to get this right and trading e-mails with republicans in states yet to come. even our best research and best reporting can't always factor in the biggest variable in all this. that would be the voters. and you surprise us sometimes. often this year in fact. who would have thought, for example, the puerto rico primary would matter? but it does. to change this math, senator santorum needs to star beating romney. and because of the delegate rules beating him by big margins on romney's home turf. puerto rico would be a start. illinois next tuesday would be a statement. yes, the map and the math still favor governor romney.

but truth is, anyone who tells you it is over for sure is too far out ahead of the people who actually get to decide that. republican voters. joining us now to talk truth from nashville senior adviser for the gingrich superpac rick tyler. in indiana ralph reid. chairman of the freedom coalition. you're a friend of newt gingrich. you know the pressure from conservatives. i know the speaker's pride, i see he can see a path to come back. what happens if romney or santorum wins puerto rico, wins illinois and then santorum wins louisiana? would the speaker think again then? >> i think you have to go back to what newt said in the very beginning. if he could -- if there were someone in this race who could actually beat barack obama and these two, mitt romney and rick santorum cannot, and could actually change washington, neither one of them has a record of reforges real reform change like the speaker does, then he would have endorsed them. if one of these two were the guy

he would step aside and endorse them. i absolutely believe that. but they aren't. so he's going to stay. in and while everybody admires cnn's ability for election coverage, and i certainly do, i think it is equally difficult for romney to actually get the reck which is it number of delegates by tampa. my estimation is all the candidates alive in tampa with somewhat equal footing. that is none of them will have the requisite 1144. on a second ballot i don't think they would go for mitt romney. in that scenario i give even money to speaker gingrich. >> ralph reid i want to ask you i understand his loyalty to speaker gingrich. i admire it. i think everybody in this process should be loyal it their guy. but if you're where your right now and you're speaker gingrich and a distant third, i'm having a hard time with rick's math. how do we get to tampa unless speecher gingrich suddenly turns the world up on its head an they're all equal with governor romney? >> newt's a very smart guy. he obviously knows that it's

uphill. but i think it's extremely difficult to tell somebody whose congressional career began running a congressional campaign in 1964 in middle georgia and who's been one of the most significant figures in the party in the last 30 years, helped usher in the first republican majority in the house in 40 years, that he ought to go sit in the corner and shut up. so i think if you really look at the way this is being handled, john, both santorum and romney, and i would suggest even party elders, have to proceed with real delicacy. because if you tell somebody they ought to get out of the race, sometimes it can have the opposite of the intended effect. >> i understand the delicacy, ralph. but you do the math. can you see a plausible path to -- not a gingrich nomination but to gingrich getting so close to governor romney he could show up in tampa and say me not him? >> well, look. i'm in the business of encouraging people to run for office, not in the business of telling people not to run. the reality is this. if you boil down what you did at

the map, john, there are 1358 delegates yet to be chosen. romney needs 694 of those. which is about 48%. he's on track to do that. the dynamic would have to change probably to deny him the nomination. >> bay as someone who's loyal to the romney campaign, would you prefer speaker grmp stay in in governor romney does better in the three-way scenario, right? >> i think it's terrific if speaker gingrich stay in and see if he can't go right into that convention and try to republican his constituents there. yep. i think there's no need for him to pop out of this race. >> you say no need to pop out of the race. what about your candidate? he came close but he was third in two southern states. only a few points behind. doesn't he have to prove himself in the geographical base of the republican party? >> no. listen. there's no question that last night santorum got some bragging rights, did well down there in mississippi and alabama. but the key here is that mitt

romney won the day. he won that evening last night. he won more delegates than anyone else. same as he did last weekend. same as he did super tuesday. and he will continue to do this. that's how he's going to win this nomination. each week go by he increases the gap between him and today he has more delegates than all the others put together. so we are on track, as ralph reed pointed out, to win this thing. we're going to do well, we think, in picking up delegates this weekend and then again next weekend, we'll pick up more. i mean, rick santorum, there's several delegates in illinois next tuesday, rick santorum wasn't able to come up with a delegate slate. how can he expect to turn things around when almost 70% of the delegates so that he can win this thing, if he can't even get delegate slates in key places? so that's where we are. we are really strong -- there's no question mitt romney is going to be the nominee of this party. >> some people do have a question. i'm going to ask everybody to stay put. we'll continue the conversation on the other side of the break. also, veterans in florida are outraged over a flag that

president obama's face on it. hear how they got it taken down. i'll bet this little girl knows how to spell ambitious. she's only 6 off to the national spelling bee. >> i-m-p-e-r -- ♪ ( whirring and crackling sounds ) man: assembly lines that fix themselves. the most innovative companies are doing things they never could before, by building on the cisco intelligent network.

and here's what we did today: supported nearly 3 million steady jobs across our country... ... scientists, technicians, engineers, machinists... ... adding nearly 400 billion dollars to our economy... we're at work providing power to almost a quarter of our homes and businesses... ... and giving us cleaner rides to work and school... and tomorrow, we could do even more. cleaner, domestic, abundant and creating jobs now. we're america's natural gas. the smarter power, today. learn more at anga.us. the priceline negotiator went down in that fiery bus crash. yes i was. we lost a beautiful man that day. but we gained the knowledge that priceline has thousands and thousands of hotels on sale every day. so i can choose the perfect one for me without bidding. is it hard for you to think back to that day? oh my, this one has an infinity pool. i love those they just... and then drop off, kinda like the negotiator.

oh dear... oh dear! ohh dear... i'm not sure exactly what happened here last night. i was out helping people save money on their car insurance. 2 more! you're doing it! aren't they doing great?! hiiiiiii!! come sweat with me! keep going richard. keep sweating!! geico. fifteen minutes could save you sweat! sweat! fifteen percent or more on car insurance. let's continue our conversation about the road ahead in the republican presidential race. joined by rick tyler, senior adviser to the pro-gingrich super pac, bay buchanan. rick, back to you first because

this co-gingrich super pac has been instrumental in keeping gingrich in the case. a casino out in vegas has been a big donor. are you having any trouble? is the money still coming in and saying he's going to win from south carolina all the way over to texas, he loses mississippi and alabama, isn't the money going to dry up? >> i think the money will be a challenge, but i don't think this is about money, and i don't think it's about buying the republican nomination. i think this is about the heart and soul of the republican party. our team is a very small team. all of us have been loyal to gingrich. we've steadfastly kept the professionals out even when we had money because we wanted to keep the speaker's interests at heart. the decision is up to him and we'll be there as long as he's going to fight on. i believe, as i say, he'll arrive in tampa on equal footing in the sense that he will not have the requisite number of delegates and neither will romney and santorum. if a brokered convention dh i think would be good for the republican party at this time, i think i'd give newt even money to win that contest. >> ralph, you say you're not in

the business of telling people to get out of the race. you're in the business of helping them get in. you're also plugged into people around the country. at the grass-roots level and at the establishment level. i know the grass roots does enough to trust the establishment. what are the conversations about this race going forward? i'll get to bay in a minute. i know there's a lot of criticism over romney's message, that if he wants to close the deal, he needs a stronger message. what is the conversation about gingrich today? >> john, not that much different than the one we're having tonight. i think a lot of grass-roots conservatives and evangelicals, and by the way, john, if you take the 16 contests for which we have entrance or exit polls from new hampshire and iowa all the way across the south, as you head towards the rio grande, 50% of all the voters who have darkened the threshold of the voting booth in these primaries has been a self-identified evangelical. and romney's only getting about a quarter of those votes. so the problem here is not newt or rick or before that herman or perry.

the issue is is that romney's got a deal to close. he's got to be able to convincingly cogently and persuasively make a case to the grass roots of this party that if he becomes president, he's going to advance their public pohl views, and he's going to fight for their values. and it isn't an opponent that's causing the issue. he's got a job left to do. i think he and his campaign know that. and that's why i think this process has been so healthy. >> and so bay, how is he failing to do that? what does he need to do differently? >> i don't think he has to do anything differently, john. he's winning. this is the key. if you look at those people, most concerned in our party about the economy, mitt romney wins overwhelmingly. what's the general election going to be about? people concerned about the economy. when you look at people who they want to see obama beat thrown out of office, mitt romney wins overwhelmingly. he's clean sweeped the popular vote here. over 1 million more votes than rick santorum. he's winning in the delegates.

he's won most of the states. he closed the deal in florida, in ohio, in arizona, in michigan. the big states, swing states, and virginia. mittwhelmingly the front-runner here. and for us to suggest suddenly we've got to change our message is ridiculous. if you want to talk evangelical, there's no question that's rick santorum's strong suit. no question about it. but what else does he got going for him? not much. >> i'm going to end this conversation tonight. but it will continue in the days and weeks and contests ahead. rick tyler, bay buchanan, ralph reed, thank you. we'll stay in touch as the roller coaster continues. kate baldwin is back with the latest news you need to know right now. >> good evening again, everyone. a jury says virginia tech was negligent for waiting to warn students about the gunman in the 2007 campus massacre. a total of 33 people died that day. and after the first victims were shot, the school waited more than two hours to send out a campus white alert. the washington monument may be two millimeters shorter than

it was last summer. surveyors say it might have sunk after last august's earth wake. we are talking about a dip the size of two dimes stacked on top of each other. seems insignificant on a 555-foot oblisk, but it's been closed as they look for quake damage. a 6-year-old is headed to the national spelling bee. lorrie ann madison is the youngest student ever to qual y qualify. >> v-a-q-u-e-r-o. >> a spanish translation of cowboy to earn a spot in the national contest. the annual scripps spelling bee kicks off in may right here in washington. i will never forget, john, the one and only spelling bee i entered and lost in the first round. you'll never forget how to spell that word. >> i hope she cowboys up in that. let's get quickly to our moment you missed. the american flag isn't quite the spar