television. almost certainly cnn. the second thing i have for you is that president obama has made a statement saying the queen has said a sample of result that along to celebrate. that is set for us from london. thanks for joining. a big interview with the former secretary of defense, wednesday night, 9:00 p.m. eastern. now from buckingham palace, good night. i'm john king in for anderson cooper. let's go with the breaking news tonight. cnn now projecting scott walker the republican governor of wisconsin will withstand a recall challenge from tom barrett. the republican winning in a hotly contested nationally watched recall election. the big issue at the beginning, governor walker's efforts to curtain the rights of public employees union. in the middle of a gig budget crisis. tens of millions of dollars spent on the recall election. about 27% of the vote in, governor walker leading by 60% to 40%. our exit poll shows the race to be closer than that. let's take a break to the magic wall to show why we're predicting why walker will keep his job as governor of wisconsin.

number one, it's obvious. red is republican. you see a lot of red. dane county here, this is the key county for democrat, 8% of the population. democrats say their turnout operation worked well there. but tom barrett the democrat getting 60% and scott walker getting 40% right there. barrett needs to be up around 70% in this key county right there. let's come back to the map here a little bit. this is waukesha county. the key county for republicans in this state. 75%, scott walker got just over 70% last time. he's overperforming. as we go from county to county, come up here, brown county, where green bay is, walker getting 60% with 75% of the vote in. that's an improvement from two years ago. you can pick your key county across the state. everything we see so far. the republican incumbent, scott walker overperforming and barrett is underperforming. we'll break it down what it means for the state, for the

governor in november. dana bash is joining us and also the former white house press secretary for george w. bush, ari fleischer and also, paul begala, also an adviser for the pro obama super pac priorities usa. senior political analyst david gergen also with us. dana, you're at walker headquarters, this was a hot fight. they got nervous, the democrats thought they might beat them on the ground. scott walker now projected to be the winner. what's the reaction right there? >> oh, it is absolutely intense. the minute that the local station here called the race for scott walker, this place erupted like i haven't heard or seen any election night. really even during the presidential primaries. the republican primaries that i was covering earlier this year. this is a fired up crowd and it really speaks to the intensity,

john, the real intensity that has been going on on the ground here in wisconsin for months and months and months. as it mentioned earlier i think to you, the fact of the matter is that people here -- i'm told by one republican strategist very true, people here would walk across coals for scott walker, but then the same intensity is on the other side. at the end of the day, the people for scott walker won. he had unbelievable money coming in here, but it really was the intensity and the ground game at the end of the day that helped the governor stay in office and fight this recall. >> dana, stay with us. we'll continue the conversation. i want to bring ari fleischer in. i can already hear it, democrats are going to say, well, we were outspent seven to one, it wasn't a fair fight, outside interests bought this election. what do you say? >> both sides had more than

enough money and resources in wisconsin. i think when you count all the organized labor can do with the number of people they can do into the state, the number of resource, phone banks, et cetera. both sides have nothing to complain about. the republicans i'm talking to, john, it's euphoria. the republican national committee people are pointing out to me how much coordination they did, the number of offices that were open, the aggressive absentee ballot they had. 4 million voters they say, which is more than the republicans had in 2008. they look at this as a crucial test run for wisconsin in november and i think that's right. the real issue at least for the presidency, the land cape is more like 2010 or more like 2008? at least in the snapshot of wisconsin, it looks like 2010. >> you're seeing scott walker headquarters. he has withstood the challenge tonight. cnn has projected he'll continue in office.

paul, you heard ari make the case this is a key benchmark as to what will happen from 154 days from now and yet, before i bring you into conversation i want to -- not to contest, but to show the wisconsin voters were asked today and even as they kept their republican governor in office, 53% of wisconsin voters today said they would vote for president obama in november. 42% said they'd vote for governor romney. that's a margin roughly equal to the mccain/obama margin. ari, are you nervous when you see the results? >> first off, let me show some good manners. scott walker and his crew are to be congratulated. they have done a remarkable thing. this is the most powerful anti-incumbent tide all around the world that we have seen in decades, maybe in my lifetime. you know, dominant party turned out in france, in greece, in britain at the local leve every

incumbent should be running scared. governor walker is the incumbent. does what have anything to do with the election in five months? no. five months ago, newt gingrich was surging to the lead. and five months ago kim jong-il was still in control. this is an important election for the people who live there and it's important for the two parties. but it has no predictive capacity for november. come on, the last republican to carry wisconsin, presidential election was ronald reagan. if anybody thinks mitt romney is another ronald reagan i want a case of what you're drinking. >> david gergen -- ari, i'll let you back in a moment. as paul makes that case, he can make that case. five months is an eternity. the last republican was ronald reagan and yet, we do know in key demographic groups especially white blue collar workers that the midwest in particular, older voters also, a

key constituency in wisconsin. they are trending to republicans in national elections, so the question is is it trending fast enough for mitt romney come november? i think that's an open question tonight. but i would challenge paul's analysis just a tad. even though i know he's quite smart. >> i agree with you, john. i think there are two implications tonight. one is what it does for november. and i think that any serious observer would have to say that a state that looked like it was leaning toward obama now must be counted as undecided. anything can happen in wisconsin and perhaps even in michigan. but there's a second part of this we haven't talked about at all. this election was centrally about the power of public employee unions. scott walker tried to cut -- curtail those unions, and in the name of trying to balance a budget. that's when this huge eruption occurred against him. he's one of the republican governors who has been out on the point on this issue about whether there are excesses in employee unions in their health care plans and so forth.

this is a hot issue from new york to california to new jersey to indiana to ohio to wisconsin. and this election tonight was well regarded long before by both sides as the second most important election of the year. and here scott walker i must say to a surprise -- given a year ago it looked like he'd lose this. tonight, to win is a essential defeat for labor, and a substantial victory for those who have been trying to curb them. >> david, you make a key point. i want to show our exit poll data on this question. the defining question that started the whole recall debate. ethics, debates about jobs and about unemployment. what started this was governor walker's successful efforts to restrict collective bargaining rights and to make public employees pay more for their health care and pensions. this is fascinating. 38% strongly approve of what the governor did, eliminating those benefits.

watch what what happened. 96% of those voters voted for -- to keep their republican governor. 37% strongly disapprove. you see the polarized electorate here. watch this, 97% of those voters voted for the democratic challenger. it was decided in the middle. i will say in the polarized climate it's a small middle. somewhat approve, 12%. watch what happens here, governor walker won by a big margin there. you get to somewhat disapprove, 12% here. you have mayor barrett winning there. you have the sharply polarized electorate. dana bash, as we await to hear the governor himself speak, i assume they will read this as a mandate. even though we expect the final result to be relatively close, as a mandate to continue what they're doing. >> oh, there's no question about it. i think to be honest with you, no matter how this turned out, they would consider this a mandate to continue doing what

they're doing. that's just the way things are on the ground here. people who are so emphatic against scott walker, they're going to keep being that way. but the interesting point that you were talking about with david gergen, john, is that yes, this whole issue started all -- all the problems for scott walker politically perhaps, maybe the benefits for him as well, back when he -- about union issues and about collective bargaining rights about 16 months ago. but in recent days and weeks, that has not been the conversation between these candidates. it has not been the conversation on the ground, it's been more specific information about general issues. >> stand by for a second as we prepare to make another projection. cnn can now project rebecca kleefisch, she was also on the recall ballot. she will keep her job as well. you have the republican governor

and the republican lieutenant governor surviving. we'll watch the results. is gloria borger ready to join the conversation? >> yes, i am. >> so, gloria, you have hear all this money spent. you have the democrats especially labor saying this was a test run, this was a key test of labor's credibility and the chairwoman of the democratic party debbie wasserman schultz, saying it was a test run for november. safe to say they flunked? >> yes, sure. this is a measure of intensity and enthusiasm among the democrats and a measure of the strength of the labor party movement. and i would have to say when you look at this and you can say, okay, what are the concrete results that this is going to tell us about november? this is a psychological boost for the republican party. they're going to say it's a lot more, but at the very least it's a psychological boost. i mean, you were talking earlier about president obama's numbers.

and in these exit polls that you were talking about, he is up 11 points over mitt romney in this state of wisconsin. who's better able to manage the economy? barack obama is up over mitt romney by eight points in wisconsin and by about a dozen points these voters said that president obama cares more about the middle class. but what this tells you is that republicans organized at the grass roots level in the state of wisconsin. they outspent democrats by more than two to one. and when they do that, and when they organize and they have a lot of money behind them, they can win. >> gloria, thanks. dana, ari, paul, gloria, everyone stick around. we're waiting -- you see the picture on your screen, scott walker will remain the governor of wisconsin. he'll speak any moment. we'll discuss what that might mean looking ahead. we'll look at the electoral map ahead to november. the republican governor and his lieutenant governor surviving a

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back to the breaking news we're following in wisconsin now. cnn is projecting that scott walk her win the recall vote. that means he's going to keep his job. we expect him to speak at any moment. and rebecca kleefisch will win her recall election. tom barrett is the mayor of milwaukee. this is being watched closely for what it might mean for the presidential election in november. we'll play out some scenarios. you see with 41% of the vote counted, scott walker winning by 19 points right now. the exit polls showed a narrow win. but if you look state again, mostly red that tells you one thing right there. the republican is winning. here's another reason. in the main democratic areas, dane county, right, that's about 8% of the state population let's go back to the governor's election, same race, he's up at 68%.

he's underperforming where he was two years ago. come back to 2012 we'll show you some republican counties. this is the biggest one for republicans. this is the milwaukee suburbs. waukesha county, governor walker overperforming with what he did two years ago. republicans on the ground turn out their voters and overperforming while the democrats are underperforming. here's the map that cnn projects it right now. president obama at 247 electoral votes. those are the solid blue and light blue states. solid democrat or leaning democrat. governor romney at 206 the dark red solid. we have wisconsin as leaning obama. in the exit polls tonight, ari fleischer, the voters say they are inclined at least if the election today, president obama would have won by a decent margin. do we keep this light blue or do you say move it? >> wisconsin always was going to

be about -- a battleground state. but in 2000, george bush lost it by only 5,000 votes. it was really a tie. and in 2004, he lost it by 11,000 votes. almost 3 million votes cast. so wisconsin is an extraordinarily close battleground state. i have a hard time seeing big labor returning in fall to put in a lot of effort since he didn't show up for them. >> forgive me for interrupting. go ahead. >> one other issue. i think we have to throw out the exit polls about obama/romney because this exit poll doesn't seem to be right about walker/barrett. we have to see what the final result is of course in the actual tally. looks like the top line numbers are way off. >> the exit poll numbers are way off. sometimes things change. but ari raises a key point. i'm going to make wisconsin the toss-up. that makes it a closer race. ari makes a fascinating point

about whether labor will do unto president obama you might say as he just did unto them. did the president make a mistake? he's the leader of the party maybe he was worried this would damage him in november. maybe he was worried he'd have his finger prints on an embarrassing loss, but as the leader of the democratic party, did he owe it to the voters of wisconsin to go out there and try to turn out the vote? >> certainly. of course. and he owed it to tom barrett. barrett was a mayor of milwaukee. he came out in the primaries and endorsed then senator obama against senator clinton. he owes it to himself and to everybody else he has to deal with. this was a mistake. i have to say. the president should have been out there. i don't think it would have made the difference, okay? let me be clear about that. but it's kind of like thanksgiving at your in laws. if you go, it doesn't guarantee it will be fun, but if you don't go this will be hell to pay. i know he loves his mother-in-law and she lives in the white house. but you know what i mean. >> keep them close. david gergen, if you look at the map, i don't think we're quite ready to do this yet, but for a hypothetical tonight move

wisconsin to the toss-up column. we'll study it more. then you have a narrow gap here. my question is if wisconsin is in play what we're seeing in the rust belt republicans proving they can get the key constituencies and does that mean we should rethink michigan and pennsylvania or is it just wisconsin? >> a very good question, john. i think at the very minimum you have to rethink michigan. and, you know, president obama's strength has been in the east, on the west coast and then the upper midwest. tonight's results do put into play the question of whether the upper midwest is actually more vulnerable than it looks. to go back to both paul and ari's points, i would assume if they're sitting there in obama's chair and you're running his campaign, you have to believe now that you have to spend some money in wisconsin. to protect yourself. that i think paul begala was right. if the president had gone in and

been loyal to labor, i think labor would be more loyal to him. whether he can count on them under these circumstances i'm not sure. >> as we await for governor walker at the event, reince priebus who at the moment is the charge of the republican committee, he has to be very happy tonight. does he believe what happened tonight translates into november? i'm sure it's personal to him, that he would love to be the republican chairman who put his state back in the republican column for first time since 1984. >> i asked him that -- excuse me, that very question just a few minutes ago when he was here. of course the answer was yes. he does believe that this is -- this puts republicans back in play in his home state of wisconsin. if nothing else, as we talked about earlier, because of infrastructure. the fact of the matter is that republicans because of this recall have built a pretty impressive infrastructure here. they have had 25 so-called victory centers across the state. they generally have something

along those lines by the time you get to the fall. but now it's in place in the early summer. that really, really helps the republicans and also with just voter i.d. we talked about the money spent and there wasn't a lot of money focussed on undecideds, but there wasn't that many. that will help them. again, whether that is going to translate into passion for mitt romney or against barack obama the way the passion has been really, really fiery here for and against scott walker that's another question. >> passion behind you in the room as they await governor walker. gloria, the democrats will say they were outspent seven to one, but paul said look around the world. this is a tough time to be an incumbent when you have a tough economy. governor walker survives this. we can debate about what happens 154 days from now in the presidential election, but what happens in the next days and weeks when politicians start to deal with the tough budget

issues? do they get a lesson out of this? >> well, you know, if you're someone like governor john kasich of ohio you might be breathing easier tonight, because he dealt with a collective bargaining issue in his state. i think all governors are going to have to take a look at this and say how dangerous is this for me as i take a look at paring down my state budget. you're also in an election year. while labor was defeated in the state of wisconsin, it doesn't mean they're going to be defeated everywhere. but i do think this is a lesson in ground organizing and money. two things that are so important to win campaigns and i think what you saw the republicans in the state of wisconsin do is raise a lot of money, take a huge amount of outside money. i mean, there was $62 million spent in this state. most of it came from outside the state because people were

looking at this as a test case. but when you have money and when you have organization, you might be able to do just about anything. and i think walker at one point was really down in the polls and you saw him have a comeback here because he had the support of the republican party and to paul's point, president obama decided for whatever reason not to come into this state anymore than with a tweet, right? he tweeted his support for barrett, but did little more than that. >> tweet not the same as a personal appearance. i want to look at the latest vote, 41% of the vote in. cnn is projecting that governor walk her keep his job along with his lieutenant governor, rebecca kleefisch. we're awaiting governor walk tore speak. very excited crowd for him in waukesha, wisconsin.

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scott walker will keep his job as the republican governor of wisconsin. we'll bring his victory speech to you live just ahead on "360."

seeing live pictures there. that's scott walker. that's his campaign headquarters tonight, in waukesha, wisconsin. he will win, and as we await governor walker speaking, we have reaction from mitt romney. let me look down -- excuse me for looking down, i congratulate scott walker on his victory. he has demonstrated what sound, fiscal policies can do to turn an economy around and i believe in november voters will demonstrate that they want the same results in washington, d.c. so governor romney saying there that he believes tonight is a message to the voter, not only in wisconsin, but nationally. look at the results. with 52% of the vote, scott

walker getting 58%. tom barrett at 41%. exit polls showed a closer race. see if it gets closer as it comes in. as i prepare to bring back in the panel, let me show you something interesting. tens of millions of dollars spent a lot on campaign ads, yet only 4% of the voters said thank you decided today. only four more in the last few days. 5% decided in the month of may. so this is when you see the late campaign ads. about 13% of the electorate. 86% of the electorate decided be fr the month of may. that's how they broke. let's go back to ari fleischer. democratic strategist paul begala, an adviser for the pro obama super pac priorities usa action. also with us, gloria borger and david gergen. paul, i want to start with you first. i know you're going do say democrats were outspent seven to

one, that was a part in this. you're working with a super pac yourself. when you look at these numbers and nearly 90%, nearly 90% decided weeks ago, does that change the strategy about spending money? >> no. no. i mean, napoleon said god is on the side of the big ba -- battalions. most elections in america or most states come down to the last 10% or so who make up their minds in the last month. you know, 40, 45% of us go to each of our partisan corners right away. then we fight over the last 10% to 20%. that's what happened in wisconsin. it may mean if that 10 keeps shrinking that you have to spend your money on turning out the base which i think both parties dit in this case as well. you know, it's -- you cannot unilaterally disarm. democrats were outspent seven to one, democrats lost, i think there's a connection.

>> vote by income. this is a race that started about union collective bargaining. in the end, governor walker was not only wrong on the union, but about jobs and yet, look at this. middle class voter, 50,000 to $75,000 a year, 25% of the electorate. the incumbent wins. narrowly, but wins along the middle class. over here, more down scale, 20% of the electorate. again, a split in a piece of the electorate that should go for the democratic mayor, tom barrett. scott walker splits. badly trailing there. and you go to the higher income, governor walker winning convincingly. the incumbent did so well when it was about unions and jobs, he did very well. >> yes, money counts. yes, ground game counts. both paul and gloria are right about that. but so the fundamental ideas. they matter in politics. conservatives have been battling

here, arguing that the public employee unions have engaged in excesses that need to be cut back. i was out in wisconsin, spent a couple of days out there a couple of weeks ago. i can tell you a lot of people, small business people in particular were talking about that these unions are costing too much money. it was not about the ads. it was not about the --s after about people deciding they can't afford it. that's been at stake here in this election. it's an important set of controversies going on in many states around the country. and i don't deny that money and ground game matter. but i think that the ideas and what -- and how people feel about what's going on in their lives and in their states matters a lot too. >> critical point from david gergen. stand by. we're awaiting to hear from the big winner tonight, scott walker of wisconsin.

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2117. if you can see it, get out there with some eye protection. >> we'll be both be back when it comes back in a hundred years. >> possibly. >> lower case "p" on that possibly. we're still waiting to hear from scott walker. the big winner tonight. more of our conversation about the result, what they mean for wisconsin and the nation. you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.

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we're waiting to hear from scott walker. the republican governor of wisconsin surviving a recall challenge. his lieutenant governor surviving as well. you see the republican celebration right there. we're waiting for scott walker to speak at any moment. 59% of the vote now counted, governor walker with 57%. and mayor barrett at 42%. the republicans doing what they

need to do. governor walker above 70%. critical there. the key democratic counties in the middle of the state, madison, the capital, dane county, 65%. he needs to be about 70% in a close statewide election. so he's underperforming which is why we project the republican scott walker will win. ted rowlands is getting reaction to governor walker's win tonight. what are you hearing? >> well, john, little different story here than what you're seeing in milwaukee. people here are very upset as you could imagine here. a lot of people have poured their lives into this recall effort over the past 16 months. some people are a little angry. but we have seen some people crying as well. we interviewed one gentleman who said that he's been working for the entire 16 months and he broke down and cried. right now, you can see it's a bit of a festive atmosphere.

but also a bit of anger here and people saying they're angry because it doesn't feel like this -- it feels like this election was bought, bought by out of state money. i don't know if you can hear me, but you can hear a lot of people still milling around the capital here. knowing that their efforts came up short. scott walker is still the governor of wisconsin. >> ted, i'm smiling here. i don't mean to smile with you being uncomfortable. that's democracy in action. we understand you spoke moments ago. can we play that for our viewers? we don't have it. all right, we'll have it later. let's bring back our panel, ari fleischer, paul begala an adviser to the pro obama super pac. and gloria borger, david gergen with us. this was a key question, all this money goes in. i want to go back in time. i want to ask and then go to

gloria first on this one. this is the 2010 election and gloria, dane county is the big one here. 68%. i'm going to write that on the map here. 68% in the county for the democrats. then i want to come back down here and i want to pick another county. eau claire county. democrats carrying this. a a small county. a swing county. remember, the democrats carried this two years ago. come back again and i want to pick one more -- two more. i'm going to pick this brown county, 56% is what governor walker is getting tonight. let's write that in here. then one last one, thank you for your patience, folks. waukesha county outside of wisconsin, 72%, governor walker got two years ago. when you have a rematch, that's what we had tonight. you come back out, you fast forward to 2012, come back to the state, this was a democratic county. this was a democratic county with 29% of the vote in. the republican is winning tonight. that's one reason scott walker

has won. 68% for the democrats when they lost here. they're underperforming in this county. that's why you lose again, because you're underperforming. come up to brown county in green bay, 56% for the republicans two years ago. this is how you win an election, you build on your performance and again, the biggest county for republicans, waukesha county, 72% two years ago, 73% now gloria borger, if you're saying this is a test run for new turnout plan, those numbers have you smiling. >> those numbers have you smiling because they worked at a macro level, at a state level, people are more receptive to an aggressive conservatism that cuts for budget cutting, that calls for taking on collective bargaining when it comes to public employee unions that's the big picture. the small picture here is that

when its comes to organizing, republicans learned how to do it in the state of wisconsin. they coordinated. the republican governor's association for example which has a great stake in the outcome of this, given the amount of conservative governors who are trying to do the same thing that scott walker did, they poured in $9 million into this campaign alone. they coordinated with other republican groups and they organized. and that is what president obama's campaign is known for. which is organizing at the grass roots level and that's what republicans did here. and that's one of the lessons to take away from it. i agree with david gergen that there's a big picture here. but there's also an important small picture here which is turning out voters is what really matters. >> all right, gloria borger. as you see the republican lieutenant governor spoke earlier. ted rowland was drowned out

earlier, but before we brought him on he interviewed a voter. >> mike, you voted today. you say you're disappointed. a lot of folks outside the capitol sharing your opinion tonight. >> we're not disappointed. this is the end of democracy. we got outspent $34 million to $4 million. this was the biggest election in america. i hope you keep me on tonight because this hurts us all. every single one of you out there in the nation if you're watching, democracy died tonight. >> very emotional. >> i'm very emotional because we all had a lot invested in this. this was it. if we didn't win tonight, the end of the usa as we know it just happened. this is it. we just got outspent $34 million to $4 million. and we don't have any other resource left but the people you see here behind me. if the people you see here behind me can't get it done tonight, it's done. democracy is dead.

>> emotional testimony there, reaction from the blue collar voter with ted rowlands. paul begala, i want to get your reaction, a democrat and someone who is involved in the spending, democrats were outspent big time tonight. i want to show you something else in the exit polls. we think our exit polls may have undercounted the republican vote a bit. even with that qualifier, paul, someone in your household, a union member, 67%, so two-thirds said no, and let's try to get this to come out here. the republican candidate, the republican winner, scott walker, that's no surprise. the non-union house holds. if you look at -- someone in your household, remember, this all started because of the collective bargaining dispute. there it is there. governor walker getting more than a third. 36% of the union household vote. what does that tell you if a number of blue collar union voters, more than a third of the them, in a big dispute that was about collective bargaining, are

voting for the republican governor? >> that's a remarkable thing. you're exactly right to highlight it. a union member who votes for scott walker is like a chicken voting for colonel sanders. he in fact succeeded in taking away the right to collective bargaining. not just cutting the pensions and their pay, which the unions agreed to. but he took away their right to collective bargain. he has succeeded. i think in part because of this mind set we have now in our national dialogue. you see it's okay to scapegoat public employees or to bash teachers and cops and publicer is -- police servant, but if you criticize mitt romney who loot the pensions and lay people off, that's class warfare. we're not in this ditch because of teachers, cops and firefighters. it's not unions that bankrupted america. we can bash the public employees all we want, that's okay. i think that's what we're seeing

in the results here. >> i think we'll a divide like this coming up to 154 days. republican governor scott walker expected to speak at any moment. [ woman ] my husband, hank, was always fun. never took life too seriously... till our son was born. that day, he bought life insurance. now there's no way i could send our boy to college without it. if there was one thing i could say to hank, it'd be "thank you."

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65% of the vote counted. walker with 58% of the vote and tom barrett with 41% of the vote. this was a rematch of a race two years ago. governor walker won narrowly them. now he's winning by a bigger margin now. what does what happened in wisconsin tonight mean for the election as we head on to november? as i bring up the electoral college map, let's go to dana bash, also joining us, ari fleischer, the former press secretary for george w. bush. and paul begala. and also with us, gloria borger and david gergen. so dana, i want to go to you on the scene first in the sense that if you look at an electoral map that we start with president obama at 247 and governor romney at 206. is this the final map, these yellow states are the toss-ups are there chinks in anybody's armor?

it is possible that we have found a chink in the democratic armor there. as you talk to republicans do they think yes, this puts wisconsin if play? i know republicans want to say that tonight. but outside of wisconsin does it mean anything in like-minded states along the rust belt? >> you know, the honest answer that they will give is they're not sure. but they hope so. i think a lot of it is for the reason that david gergen was just talking about when we talked about the issues. they are very much hoping that this is a harbinger of november when it comes to people really care about and are upset about -- very much like in 2010, about the big spending, and the ideas, versus democrats who are many concerned that the cuts are too deep which is effectively the debate we saw here. if republicans with make the -- can make the argument that you need to keep the republican ideals in check, then that is going to prevail in other states.

but states like michigan, which as you were talking about has been really reliably democrat in the past several presidential elections, unclear. a state to look at when you talk about that question is the state of ohio. and whether or not this in terms of the rust belt kind of voter needs something the -- means something for ohio. >> david gergen, you were talking about yes, there's a lot of money, but in the end politics is about policy. if ideas were a big factor in the equation tonight, what should governor romney learn when he goes back to wisconsin next time, when he goes to ohio or michigan, when he goes to pennsylvania or anywhere else, is there a lesson for mitt romney? is there something in his message that he should and could change because of what happened tonight in wisconsin? >> i think he can give voice to the restlessness and resentment that are stirring against some of the excesses in labor union, but what i hope he does not do is declare war on public employee unions.

i think that would be a terrible mistake. there are some things that need to be fixed but we don't need a war. i happen to believe in collective bargaining. i want to point this out to paul and others with regard to the union members. those 36% who said that they -- you know, they went for walker. since this law was passed, these reforms were passed, these laws said that if a union represents your unit in government, you don't -- you no longer have to belong to the union and you no longer have to pay dues to the union. it's reported by "the wall street journal" over half of the members of the second largest union in wisconsin and that is the federal and state and local employees, they have left their unions since the laws were passed. there's something out there that goes beyond money and organization. there is something stirring in the country about what's happening at the state and local level. i think we have to take account of it. >> ari fleischer, as the republican in the group, if

you're the romney campaign and you're scrubbing this tonight trying to figure out what's the lesson, what is it? >> a couple of things. if you go back to what president obama was elected, really on the anti-bush, anti-iraq mood of the country, he's not had any good election results ever since. 2010, of course, scott brown took ted kennedy's seat in massachusetts. 2010, congressional election the biggest republican midterm win in 78 years. even anthony weiner's seat, overwhelmingly democratic house seat in queens went republican. now this. very bad string of political news for president obama on the domestic front. election after election year after year. one other thing, john, i want to point out -- >> i have to jump in. we're about out of time. 154 days until the election. thanks. that does it though for this edition of "360."

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