today. >> pretty funny. bad words. no more bad words. you can always follow what's going on in the situation room on twitter. tweet me at wolf blitzer. >> tweet me at kate bolduan. >> erin burnett, "outfront," starts right now. "outfront" next. so we get a call from the obama campaign. they want to talk about our segment. so we did. and we're going to tell you about it, next. plus, new polls just released from two battleground states, who is in the lead, and what it means for the crucial 270 electoral votes. and big news from the world of apple, which involves the ipad. oh. the maxi or the mini. let's go "outfront." good evening, everyone. i'm erin burnett. "outfront" tonight, the president's math. it still doesn't seem to add up. again today on the campaign

trail, the president brought along his fansy glossy booklet outlining his plan for the next four years. thchblgs is the plan we need, virginia. this is how you build a strong, sustainable economy. >> i've got it here too. but we didn't want to take his word for it. as we told you told, the plan doesn't exactly add up. inside the glossy, it says president obama's plan reduces the deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade. how he's going to do it, well, that's still a bit of a mystery. of course, the obama campaign did not exactly like our analysis. but they also didn't exactly disagree with us. and we give them credit for taking the time to talk to us on the phone and for sending us this 30-page document. all right? back to the glossy, though, for a moment. one of the claims we took issue with this is line right here. president obama would commit half of the money saved from responsibly ending wars in iraq and afghanistan to reducing the deficit and the other half to

putting americans back to work, rebuilding roads, bridges, runways and schools here in the united states. now, as the president noted earlier on that page, the wars have been purchased on a credit card, borrowed. as we told you, the money that's borrowed to begin with and also money they hadn't planned to spend in the first place. the wars had been scheduled to end. so savings as the president's plan proposes, no. the campaign recognized our point and said this was a matter to debate, but they didn't directly dispute it. now, we also took issue with the fact that the president's plan says it will close loopholes, but doesn't tell us exactly which ones. kind of like they've accused mitt romney of doing. when we made that assertion, we looked hard through the entire campaign website like any voter would do to find the information. we couldn't find it. now, the campaign took issue with our comment, saying our equating their lack of detail on loopholes to mitt romney's was a false equivalency, so they sent us details this afternoon. more accurately, they sent us

the president's 2013 budget tables. and they say -- i guess if this one year is a reflection of everything the president would do for the next four years, then it's fair. they gave us the loopholes. the tables of their 2013 budget submitted in february are right here, starting on page 15 of 30, after devoting 14 pages to taking aim at the gop plan. but does it add up to the president's plan of cutting $4 trillion from the debt? well, no. the nonpartisan, cbo, analyzed this budget and concluded, and i'll quote them, over the 2013 to 2022 period, the cumulative deficit that would result from enacting the president's budget, $6.4 trillion, or more than 3% of gdp, would be $3.5 trillion larger than the cumulative deficit projected under current law. so that's $3.5 trillion in new borrowing they have to pay for before they start the $4 trillion in cuts. congressman chris van holland is

a democrat of maryland and we appreciate you taking the time, sir. i want to talk about these loopholes. i know everyone wants to close them. it's part of any fair and balanced tax overhaul in this country. then, of course, you realize the special interests that will try to kill you when you try to close the loopholes. so when we looked at the loopholes and i added them up, we got $1 trillion and netted against the ones the president wants to extend, $400 million. it doesn't add up to much. doesn't the president need to go after popular deductions like mortgage interest and health care, just like mitt romney does, to make his math work? >> no, he doesn't. because unlike mitt romney, the president doesn't call for a $5 trillion tax cut coming out of the box. that's what sets mitt romney back. he has the $5 trillion in tax cuts and then calls for $2 trillion of the defense department doesn't even ask for. so he builds another $7 trillion whole before you even get started. erin, you covered a lot of territory in the lead-in. i would just say, budgets are

always compared to what? and the committee for responsible federal budget, which is the leading to fix the debt campaign, did analysis in february of the president's budget plan and the romney budget plan. and they found that the romney budget plan would explode the deficit much more than the president's plan, which brings the deficits under control, under 3% of gdp, by the tenth year, stabilizes the debt to gdp ratio and gets this you said control. whereas the romney plan, according to the folks who are leading the fix the debt campaign, explodes the debt in comparison. >> what about the cbo, they scored the president's plan over that ten-year period. this year, through 2022. and they say the budget would be $6.4 trillion, $3.5 trillion larger than if he let all the bush tax cuts expire. by not letting them expire for people making under $250,000, he's, according to thirdway spending $2.4 trillion in tax

cuts right there. >> all these budgets, the ryan budget in congress, the president's budget, the romney budget in a big way, all of them do require additional borrowing. the issue is whether you get the trend line in the right direction. and the president gets it much better in the right direction, stabilizing the debt than does the romney budget, according to the one organization that has compared both of them, the committee for responsible federal budget -- >> what about just on this pure math on the president's plan? third way saying extending the bush tax cuts for those making under $250,000 is $2.4 trillion. getting rid of them for those over 250,000 it is only raises you $869 billion. i mean, don't we at some point have to be honest with people and say, look, i know we want to say that the wealthy could carry the whole burden and solve this whole problem, but the math doesn't work. >> well, actually -- the president's math does work. in the -- so he does -- it's about $1 trillion -- little under $1 trillion when you return to the clinton era rates for folks at the top.

the president has also said we are going to reduce the value of people's deductions for high-end income earners. and actually, generates hundreds of billions of dollars that way. then he does get rid of a lot of unnecessary programs, consolidates programs. he cuts direct payments and agriculture subsidies. so he has about $2.50 in cuts to every dollar in revenue, which is the kind of balanced approach that we want. >> let me ask you this. you brought up $2.50 in cuts for every dollar in revenue. simpson/bowles suggested $3 for every dollar in revenue. the president did not support simpson/bowles. and i wanted to read the "washington post" comment in light of that when they entorsed the president today. it was a rather troubling endorsement. here's their quote. we come to judgment with eyes open to the disappointments of mr. obama's first term. he did not end as he promised he would a chronic avoidance of tough decisions on fiscal matters. we were disappointed mr. obama allowed the bipartisan recommendations of his fiscal commission, simpson/bowles, to

wither and die, and he and speaker john boehner failed to seal a fiscal deal in the summer of 2011. how is obama going to change that pattern in the second term, is the question i put to you, sir? he had the chance to do a big deal with tough choses, with things like mortgage interest deduction. he didn't do it. >> erin, as you know, simpson/bowles both said this, the president takes the balanced approach they recommend. in other words, every credible bipartisan group, including simpson bowls has said if we're going to tackle this deficit and debt, we've got to make some tough cuts and we did $1 trillion in cuts last year, but we also need to deal with revenue. the president's plan actually gets a lot closer to the simpson/bowles ratios than anything that mitt romney has put on the table, because he has refused to -- he says he wouldn't even take $10 in cuts to $1 in revenue. he wants to protect those tax breaks for very high-income individuals, like himself. that's his plan. but it -- it totally busts the

deficit and the debts, according to the committee for responsible federal budget. >> all right. thank you very much, congressman. as always, i appreciate your time. >> thank you. thanks, erin. and "outfront" next, a big story out west just released polls that could decide the next president. we are seeing a move that could change the election tonight. and the speaker of the house calls out president obama over libya. was it just for political gain, though? plus, an october surprise from mother nature. a storm dubbed frankenstorm barrelling toward the east coast. wrap ♪

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throughout our lives. one a day men's 50+ is a complete multi-vitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has more of 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day men's 50+. . our second story "outfront," brand-new polls just out now. and according to the polls, mitt romney has a razor-thin lead. let's go through. the latest cnn poll of polls updated tonight. looking here on my blackberry as it comes in from our poll master paul, mitt romney leading the president by one point among likely voters nationwide. that's a dead heat.

it's a different story at the state level, which is really, everybody, what's going to matter in terms of who wins. brand-new polls tonight from nbc news and the "wall street journal" show the president leading mitt romney by three points in nevada, 50-47 and a dead heat in colorado, literally. 48-48. now for mitt romney, those two states are especially crucial, and let's just hold this map up and i'll explain to you why. the current cnn electoral map counts those states as toss-ups. so the president has 237 electoral votes on this map. mitt romney, 206. remember, you need 270 to win. so even if mitt romney wins most of the toss-ups and in that i'm going to give him florida, virginia, new hampshire, wisconsin and iowa. all of those. he still needs colorado, nevada or ohio to win. right now he is trailing in nevada and ohio and tied in colorado. republicans strategist hogan beginly is "outfront," along with the senior adviser for hillary clinton.

hogan, let me ask you about this issue for mitt romney. nationally on the polls, obviously, there's been significant improvement and he's ahead. but that isn't how we elect a president in this country. we elect based on what a few states decide to do and he has to pick up swing states to do it. he's lagging in some of those. what's his game plan? >> right. first of all, i want to give you credit and tell john king he better watch his back. because that was a really good job with that map, by the way. >> i watch john king and i try to soak it up. >> that's right. he's a tough act to follow, for sure. listen, it's pretty clear right now, the big story tonight and after these debates has been the fact that mitt romney has chipped away at the huge lead the president had. but for the debates, we might be talking about obama going away with this thing at this point. however, it looks like the numbers amongst women and independents has shrunk considerably, because governor romney did a very good job in those debates. i think the ads helped, too. showing him that he wasn't the monster that the obama people said he was.

so now he's come out with this five-point plan. people are gravitating toward that. and it looks like the trajectory is such that he could actually pull this thing out here in the waning days of this campaign. looks pretty good for mitt romney right now. >> doug, let me pick up on something hogan mentioned, which is the women vote and talk about colorado specifically where we're in a dead heat, 48-48. it was the case that suburban women in colorado last month, the president was ahead by 18 points. he's now only ahead by three. is the obama campaign worried, seriously, about that? or not? >> well, they're certainly making an investment of time and money and effort on the women vote, for sure. but essentially we're talking about people who are undecided. and you would expect more of the undecided vote to break toward a challenge or not toward the candidate who they already know. and i know the campaign expected this sort of tightening. and the -- these states, as you said, are more crucial to the candidate who loses ohio, if the president keeps his lead there, does well in ohio, romney really has to bring these states home. and i think one thing that this

points to, the tightening in these two states and other battle grounds, we're really talking about the ground game now. which side is really going to do a better job getting out their voters to the polls. this momentum that romney has had doesn't add up to a whole lot. unless they can get out their voters. and the president, i think, is tightening the polls may have helped, shakes the democrats out of complacency after the president's lead over the summer. >> hogan, doug has a good point. plus the fact from all of the reporting on the ground, doug avalon on the election bus and seeing this around the country, the obama administration has more people on the ground in these swing states, more offices, more people, going door to door. >> right. and republicans have been saying and championing the fact that they've got more out on the ground than in 2008. well, that's great, but that's not the standard. the standard is 2012, and they've got to have more people out on the ground in 2012 this cycle than worry about boasting -- they have a better ground game than in 2008. i sure hope so. they got clocked in 2008. so they've got to do better on

the ground, and as -- as he mentioned just now, the ads are so saturated at this point. it is a get out the vote effort from here on out. >> and doug, let me ask about the tone, quickly. there was an article in "rolling stone," got tweeted around this morning on twitter. the president appeared to call his opponent a bs err. i'll quoted him. kids have good instinct, they look at the other guy and say well that's a bull [ bleep ]er, i can tell. very hard to say without saying it. but you know what i'm saying. you know, and the president also, during the last debate, he was -- you know, he was definitely saying some nasty things. the horses and bayonets. is the tone going to work? is this a smart strategy? >> i don't know how strategic it was. this is perfectly fine for that particular forum, "rolling stone," it's inelegant but accurate, and one of romney's biggest vulnerabilities, hard to trust him because of his reputation as a flip-flopper and

telling you what you want to hear and turning around and saying something different. so inelegant but put it back on the map for conversation. that's what he was talking about. and i don't think it's -- people are worried too much about the language, but about what he was pointing at, which is this problem people have with romney. i think it's what's kept him back for much of the year, is this well deserved reputation for being a chameleon and changing his tune all the time. >> thanks very much, doug hogan, we appreciate it. ahead, a last-minute spending spree, the campaigns unloading tens of millions of dollars in swing states. are they targeting the right areas, though, to actually win? and the next big thing in television is here. and as we all know, it is not campaign ads, because they are the most awful thing to actually have to watch, although they keep us in business. are we witnessing the end of tv sets as we know them? h nothing, build a ground-breaking car. good. now build a time machine. go here, find someone who can build a futuristic dash board display. bring future guy back.

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the latest innovation in television is here. et cetera the first ultra hd television and finally went on sale today. it's an 84-inch l.e.d. television, four times the

resolution of a credibility tv. ten speakers, 3-d picture quality and glasses. i'm assuming they'll throw them in free and a virtually seamless design. it's not cheap. the price tag, $19,999.99. i mean, do they think this is kind of like when you surprise something at $1.99 that gets people who won't buy it at $2? i think if it's $19,999.99, you could have called it $20. even with the $3,000 discount, this is an insane price for a television. but apparently it is relatively cheap. the sony version of the ultra hd is going to sell for about $25,000. the very high-end retailers stocking the sets hope to capitalize on holiday shopping. i don't know anyone who spends that amount of money on holiday shopping but this brings they to tonight's number, which is 3%. during the quirk of this year, 3% fewer televisions sold in the same period the year before. you might say hey, that's only 3%. that's a lot, everybody.

it's the first time in history that television sales dropped from the previous year. the first time in history. as smartphones and minis and maxis continue to improve picture quality, more and more people are abandoning the traditional tv. and right now, anyway, manufacturers and retailers are trying to stem that by introducing bigger and more cinematic experiences, like the trawl ultra hd. hopefully for their sake some people will choose to buy a television for $20,000, instead of a car. i would pick the car. but anyway, if other people will do it, television market could be on the verge of fading to black. and now our third story "outfront." mitt romney cashes in. the campaign says it's raised $112 million in the first half of october. by comparison, the romney effort collected $170 million for the entire month of september. when the president beat him by $11 million. "outfront" tonight, john avalon traveling to key battle grounds states tonight in jacksonville beach, florida. john. >> reporter: erin.

i'll tell you, erin. it's unbelievable what the campaigns are spending the money on right now. you can't turn on a television here in florida. if you're trying to watch the world series in between innings, it's nothing but negative campaign ads. it is just wall to wall. and i'll tell you what's amazing. it's not just super pacs, it's campaigns, and if you think it's worse than ever before, guess what? it is. compare this year in florida, brand-new numbers from the wesleyan media center, florida 2008 looks light on this screen. not that many ads, not that much money. this year, the whole state is dark. that's a measure of just how much money is being spent. see that i-4 corridor last night, dark. over $10 million, erin has been spent in the last month alone in tampa and orlando. jacksonville, $2 million in the last month alone. that's how hard they're fighting and how expensive this race has become. >> and how miserable it's become to watch television, especially if you have an ultra hd, where it's right in your face. when you look at the rest of the country, though, john, where do you see the biggest concentration of ad spending

outside where you are tonight? >> reporter: you know, erin, the old adage is true. follow the money. if you want to find out what's really going on in campaign, follow the money and look at this map. it shows where the campaigns and is super pacs are spending their money and it's the key battle grounds, florida, ohio, virginia, nevada, colorado. that's where their campaigns are betting the election will be decided. we know that's true in terms of electoral math and this is just how tight it's gone. >> thanks very much to john avalon who will continue at the cnn election bus and you'll see him tomorrow night. house speaker john boehner demanded answers about the terrorist attack in libya. specifically wanted to know whether the ball was dropped concerning the military response. but is he just playing politics? and the election is 12 days away. but it could be weeks before we find out who actually won. seriously. but because of business people like you, things are beginning to get rolling. and regions is here to help.

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we start the second half of our show with stories we care about, where we focus on our own reporting from the front lines. and we begin with hurricane sandy getting a new name, frankenstorm. well it's the time of year for that. sandy is on track to merge with a winter storm over the weekend and hit the east coast. cnn's severe weather team tells us that scenario could be disastrous with widespread

damage, power outages, heavy rain and snow for the northeast. the recent tracks have frankenstorm hitting the new york city area tuesday morning. and now to mali where there are reports men killed several civilians. a source tells "outfront" tonight, at least six people have been killed, and adds that the circumstances of their death is under investigation. it's acts like these that might finally bring military intervention to mali. today the u.n. deputy general said there is a unique sense of purpose as they prepare for potential military operations in mali. apple reported quarterly numbers after the markets closed. they were disappointsing. $8.2 billion, sales over $36 billion. $36 billion in ipads is amazing. these profits weren't as much as analysts were looking for. apple sold 27 million iphones, more than expected. but the ipad is actually where apple missed the mark. 14 million were sold. analysts thinking the number would be well over 15 million.

448 days since the united states lost its top credit rating. what are we doing to get it back? first time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 23,000 last week to 369,000. claims have been volatile over the past few weeks, but economists we spoke to say good news, the trend is showing improvement. our fourth story "outfront," a letter to the president. house speaker john boehner sent the president a letter about libya today, calling the, quote, new information in the public domain deeply troubling. he is referring in part to the e-mails that cnn and other news agencies obtained yesterday showing that an al qaeda-linked group claimed responsibility for the attacks almost two hours after they began. boehner asked the president to publicly address who knew what and when. he also asks the president to explain why, and i'll quote him, it appears military assets were not prepositioned and utilized in the immediate aftermath of the attack. now, on that specific point, defense secretary leon panetta

stood up today and defended the administration. >> the basic principle is that you don't deploy forces into harm's way without knowing what's going on, without having some real-time information about what's taking place. and as a result of not having that kind of information, the commander who was on the ground, or in that area, general hatch, general dempsey and i felt strongly we could not put forces at risk in that situation. >> well, for weeks the white house than criticized for its response to the attack that killed ambassador chris stevens and three other americans. senator corker has been one of those demanding answers and he's "outfront" tonight. senator, good to see you again. you heard leon panetta giving a nuanced answer as to why he made the decisions that he made, and general ham made. does that answer satisfy you? >> well, there was some confusion. i know the folks we had in tripoli had to actually charter a civilian flight to get up to

benghazi. they had to be led with a militia and a circuitous route that were anti-american to finally get to the benghazi consulate. so i actually am somewhat sympathetic to the military action. i'm totally unsympathetic to what the white house knew at that time. i know the white house knew in real-time this was a terrorist attack. and i just am very disappointed at the continual misleading and the fact that the administration has used this as a -- they have turned it into a political issue by doing what they did. >> now, let me ask you, because secretary of state hillary clinton, as you know, has said its a fluid situation, and the former secretary of state, condoleezza rice came to her defense and said americans should wait until we have the investigations, we have all of the information, and then pass judgment. do you fear sometimes that you're passing judgment too quickly? >> so i agree with secretary rice. condoleezza rice, okay, that, in fact, you need to look at the whole body of information.

i agree with that. but the fact is, erin, i was there on the ground. i've talked directly to the people who are sending this information, and have known for some time that they knew in real-time this was not the result of a protest. the ambassador walked outside of the consulate, shook hands with the turkish ambassador as he was leaving from dinner, and then about 45 minutes later, this all began. and they knew at the time it was a terrorist attack. so i just don't think there is any confusion around that. >> right. >> and if that's the case, then if that's the case, why would the ambassador to the u.n., susan rice, why would she get out and say the things so demonstrably that she said? and it's my sense that, again, they don't want the american people to understand that terrorism has not been vanquished, but certainly is on the rise in many of these countries, especially as a result of the arab spring. >> one thing about that, theory, though -- i understand what you're saying.

but it seems like a cover-up or misleading would be so hard to do in the u.s. government. pulling off a cover-up is so much more difficult than anyone could imagine. so in one sense, i sort of would be amazed if they had the ability to do that. >> well, i've never used the word "cover-up." i've used the word misleading. as a matter of fact, i've had conversations this morning, erin -- >> yes. >> very high levels of government. i absolutely believe that this was a purposely misleading event, and i'm disappointed in that. >> and one final question. you know, you talked about -- you're saying the democrats made this political. john kerry called this a political football earlier in the week, referring to what members of your party have done regarding it. and i'm curious about what mitt romney has done, what you think. because obviously, when that moment came up in the debate a couple weeks ago about libya, he hasn't really talked about it since. he didn't get into it in the foreign policy debate. he hasn't commented on the e-mails that have leaked out. do you think he's making a mistake, or -- is it possible in

the intelligence briefings he's now getting he's learning enough information that makes him think he should be quiet? >> i don't think there's any way he could have higher level intelligence briefings than i've been receiving. i mean, we've been -- you know, i don't think that could be happening. so i don't think that's -- i do think he may have missed an opportunity to be more clear in the second debate. i don't think in the third debate it was the time to bring this up. i think that the window had passed. i think in the interim, the white house had been able to cloud the issue in such a way that a second debate was really the time to bring this up. >> all right. always good to see you and we appreciate your time, senator. >> thank you. the election is 12 days away. but wait a minute, it could be more than a month until we have a winner. it's what an election official in ohio calls a insight mare scenario and could be a reality. vote who are request an absentee ballot but decide to vote in person have to cast a provisional ballot to make sure

they don't vote twice in ohio. and by law, who knows why, this is just the way it is, everybody, provisional ballots don't get counted until november 17th so they sit around not getting counted and the final tally isn't due until three weeks after election day. you say, okay, could this really happen? here's a number for you. as of tonight, 800,000 people have requested absentee ballots but have not returned them. so there is a potential for 800,000 provisional ballots in ohio. we know a lot of people have early voted but this could get scary. this is the state where 200,000 votes separated president obama and john mccain in 2008. so you can see how this could make all the difference in the world. "outfront" tonight, cnn contributor salaam and roland martin. i know this could sound far-fetched, roland, when you lay it out. but when you look at the numbers t could actually happen, right? there is a mathematical way for both to get to 270, it's much more difficult for mitt romney to do it than barack obama. so if we can't call ohio on election day, that's really what it could come down to, we may not have a winner. how likely do you think it is?

>> first of all, obviously, we can't even guess that. there are other scenarios that get romney to 270, that get president obama to 270. also keep in mind, 2004, president george w. bush won ohio by 110,000 votes. the folks in ohio screwed around too long, frankly when it came to other issues on voting. extending the early voting hours, passing these ridiculous voter suppression laws, so they should have been paying attention to this, knowing full well there was going to be a significant intensity for this election. >> you know, let me ask a question about this, ryan, in terms of something the state of ohio did to roland's point, different this year. for the first time, they sent every single person in the state of ohio an absentee ballot request form. so it came to you at home, you could send it in. how is that going to influence things? some people might have thought, okay, that's definitely a good thing. that way everybody has a chance to voechlt but maybe not. >> yeah, if you look at states like oregon, for example, voting by mail has become incredibly common. and it's a really interesting

conceptional question. the i think the ideas to make voting more accessible, but also introduces all of these different calculations for, you know, candidates as well as for the officials who run these electrics. one thing i really want people to understand this is this. america is an affluent, modern country. but when you look at our elections, they're very decentralized. >> futile? >> and when you have really close elections, this rickety system can get to the breaking point. we saw that in florida. we tried to fix it with bits of legislation here and there. the thing is that fundamentally it's an incredibly complex enterprise, and if this election is as close as we think it will be, it's not just ohio, where you might see the electoral system, the creaking electoral system hit the breaking point. you might see it happen in other jurisdictio jurisdictions, as well. >> roland, go ahead. >> to his point, congressman jesse jackson jr. was introducing a piece of legislation that dealt with having a federal standard when it comes to elections. because part of the problem

here, you have 50 states. and then you have these different county rules so you have one county where they may actually be using one form of balloting, whether it's electronic, another might be using the punch ballot, some the bubble. so it's crazy. and you have all of these different standards, no skift see. you said, why would you have an election on november 6th and you're waiting 11 days to count the ballot? that makes no sense. >> it really doesn't. and it opens up, you know -- there's the possibility then of fraud. what about the fact we know early voting statistically favors democrats, roland. so the republicans get upset about it. and the president went out today, the first president ever to cast his vote early. but -- which he did in chicago. but a lot of people say this doesn't distort at all. people who vote early would have voted on election day, no matter what. so there is no distortion. >> okay. if you're a republican, you're stuck on stupid if you've got a problem with early voting. who cares? your job is to get your people out. not only that, republicans can

also vote early. i don't understand what this whole deal is. and in fact, i think it's idiotic in this country where we somehow want to continue a system where we only are voting on one day, a tiuesday. i agree with you. it's the constitutional amendment i want. change it. stop whining about it, get your people out to vote. >> ryan, do you agree with us? is constitutional amendment and this tuesday business? >> there are a lot of folks who think, hey, why do we have saturday voting? not a terrible idea. i think it would be -- the thing is, these elections, they're coordinating devices. so it's the same reason why we have summer vacations across the country. because you want actually to have a lot of different people coordinate around a common day. and when you move away from that, it does introduce complications. but on the other hand, you make the electoral system more accessible. one thing i want to throw out for you guys is this. imagine if we didn't have the electoral college, and if you had to have, for example, recounts and other things happening on a national scale. this is something that people

have to understand. in any election, and we saw this in florida, there are going to be spoiled ballots. there are going to be lots of issues that arise, even if you have a great, pristine, high-tech, wonderful electoral system. that's just what happens when you're dealing with tens of millions of votes. so i think that to some degree, we have to accept that chaos is going to be part of the process. >> right. even as we send election monitors to everyone else's election, because we say ours are so perfect. we look in the mirror and we see not to pretty. still to come, a man who understands polls more than anyone else, nate silver is here to tell us who the has the best chance of winning and why some of the predictions are just bunk. and this guy could have had $100 million. but he got fired. his story is still "outfront." think. drink coffee. hatch a design. kill the design. design something totally original. do it again. that's good. kick out the committees. call in the engineers. call in the car guys. call in the nerds. build a prototype. mold it. shape it. love it. give it 40 mpg. no, 41. give it a huge display. give it a starting price under 16 grand. take it to the car shows. get a celebrity endorser.

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our fifth story "outfront." mitt's momentum? romney rode a wave of momentum after the denver debate, moving up in the polls. but after the president fought back in debates two and three, has the momentum shifted? "outfront," a man who knows more than anyone about what the numbers are in this race, nate silver, founder of the "new york times" 358.com blog and why so many predictions fail and some don't. nate, i'm happy you're here. you're saying mitt romney has lost the momentum he had after

the first debate. how come? >> well, he hasn't lost all the gains he made after denver where he had maybe a four-point bounce in the polls. the question is, is he still moving forward? and we don't think so so much, in the tracking polls, you may have had on average a slight shift back toward obama. looking at the states, electoral college picture, it seems to be solidifying with the states most decisive, like ohio still showing the president with a small, maybe two-point lead. talk about the new polls we did get out tonight, shared them earlier. nevada showing the president leading by three points. colorado literally neck and neck, 48-48. your analysis, what are the chances, when you take everything together and say what are the chances barack obama wins, what are the chances mitt romney wins, what's your verdict? >> so we have about a obama with a 70% chance of winning and the polls are indicative of why. nevada is a state romney has to win unless he wins ohio.

whereas colorado is more an extra state for obama, it could complicate romney's math, if obama takes a loss, for example, in ohio. but otherwise, a state that romney would need for his maps a must-win for romney, than for obama. in fact, the states that are closest right now, like colorado and virginia r states that romney needs more than obama, is problematic for mitt romney right now. >> and talking about polls, you went after gallup showing mitt romney seven points ahead and you said when gallup is an outli outlier, its results are usually wrong. how come? >> it's more about frankly the way the news media covers polls. you take the outliers not addictive of the overall trend and they get way more hype than they should, whether it's gallup or another poll more democratic than the consensus says, 20 or 30 polls now every day. so looking at the consensus or the average of data is really the way to go instead of focusing on the erratic results

any pollster will have from time to time. >> i have to note, we did predict perfectly in 2008, so i'm hoping we'll get it right again. you just mentioned 30 polls a day and i was on cone none o'brien's show earlyo'bryan's s earlier and in his way, he brought it up. >> how many more polls do we need and do you think we're polling too much? do you think it's time to -- you know what i mean? i think there's 35 different companies that take polls and they -- they release their polls like 15 times a day. so i don't know about the rest of you, i get so inundated, i don't know what's happening. >> are there really 35 companies? >> i'm making this up. >> you just said 30 polls. i know you don't need to make it up. how many reputable poll companies are there out there that you track? >> well, there are about 120 companies that have released at least one poll, state or national this year. how many of those are any good? maybe 40 or 50 are decent. the others you might take with a grain of salt. even among the best pollsters you still have disagreements on

how large obama's lead or deficit is nationally which is again why we think there's more data at the state level and more consistency, for example, in some ways in the ohio polls or nevada polls or wisconsin polls, where you have a few romney ties but most show obama head. virginia, colorado, there you're all over the map. >> let me ask you a question, why people see these names out there, rasmussen tends to lean to the right, public policy polling leans the other way. how much do polls influence how voters vote? a lot of people watching here see them and say i want to know sort of which name leans which way so i can make a decision. >> i hope we don't influence people all that much. in some countries you're not allowed to do polling in a few days before the election for that reason. look, people are deciding based on the economy, based on the direction of the country, based on what they think of the candidates. i think it's interesting to predict how the election will go but i think in some ways, the press doesn't give the voters enough credit for making rational decisions based on how they see the country headed,

about their personal economic circumstances and that tends to predict the election pretty well. the fact we have a really close election what is you would expect given the economy, we're not in recession but are growing awful slow. that's what you would expect given the economic circumstances we have, that you would have a real fight to the finish. >> nate, thanks so much. next, the man had $100 million on monday but got fired at the worst time. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is karen and jeremiah. they don't know it yet, but they're gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of kids,

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on monday, facebook employees are going to have the chance to do something the rest of us could only dream of. a chance to turn $5 billion in shares into cold hard cash. pretty great considering the stock actually jumped this week for the first time. it's a long awaited payday. tonight's i.d.e.a. guest will never see it. he was the 30th employee at facebook. his take of the pie, $100 million. that is, if he hadn't been fired by mark zuckerberg. i asked him about his initial idea to risk it all for facebook and the brutal moment that he realized he had lost everything. >> i'll tell you my grandma was like they don't have health insurance? this place is crazy. you're going to leave intel? i can't believe you're going to

do this. it's something i truly love using every day so there wasn't really much risk. i actually got a pay raise leaving intel going from 100,000 people down to 30. >> when you went to facebook. >> yes. >> okay. then how long did you stay at facebook? >> i was there about nine months. >> nine months. then you said forget this place? this place isn't going anywhere? >> no, no. it's funny, we had a chinese guy in the office, he's like what is this facebook thing, what are you kids doing all day. eventually he moved out and we took over his space. i just knew it was going to be big. it was something i was using obsessively. i knew it was going to get a lot larger. >> so why did you leave? >> i got let go. it took many years to accept that and be comfortable talking about that in public. >> especially if you're a high achiever. they're going to tell you got this job. how would donald trump say it, you got fired, right? >> i did. let go. >> see, no one wants to say it that way. but why? >> so i think at the time, now that i've hired a lot of people and fired people, i was really good when facebook went from 30 to 150, i walked over to mark's

desk, let's do this, go get it done. as you go to 150 -- >> number of people working there. >> yes. exactly. you need a different person in the company that can go from 150 to 1,000 employees. at that age, i was 25. wa i wasn't going to be the person to do that. >> they let you go and you're okay with it until obviously -- >> no, i was massively depressed. >> just on getting fired? forget the money for now. >> the money i knew was going to be painful. secondly, it got big. mark was on oprah. when i originally got the job my mom said you better go save facebook. >> myspace. i'm trying to remember. >> it's everywhere. this is right when they're opening up, everyone is talking about it. i'm like one, it makes me feel embarrassed, why would you leave the best company that's really growing and popular, your friends, everything like my social network was all facebook employees. so six months of just being alone and kind of sad about it. >> the money was what? $100 million? >> yeah. >> that's how much richer you would be now.

>> yes. >> i feel like i'm putting salt on a wound. >> no, no, no. i met a ceo of a public company, so he introduced me to a life coach. >> really. >> yeah. and what i did with her which was interesting, she said write out everything you buy with all that money. this is before they went public. we didn't know if there would be $100 billion or $50 billion or whatever amount of money. i wrote out everything and i said there's really not much more i would change in my life. it helped me understand i'm actually pretty content with my life. if there's anything else i want i'll earn that money and buy it. >> a lot of people are saying you're smiling now which is a reason for that. you did move on. tell me about the thing you found that was the thing for you, the thing where you spread your wings and say i don't care that i left that money on the table, i'm over being fired, i found the thing right for me. >> yeah. so eventually i started a company that helps entrepreneurs succeed. we just help people are starting or growing businesses with tools