we welcome our viewers around the world. this is "the situation room" special report. north korean crisis, while the u.s. allies run drills, new word that a missile launch could happen literally at any moment without warning. plus, kim jong-un's family secrets. how he rose to power over his brothers and his insecurities right now and a clear and direct threat to america. very strong words. the troops are preparing for the worst. a u.s. official tells us that a launch of north korea's missiles may be imminent and it may happen without the usual warning to planes and ships in the region. that's a very, very dangerous scenario. defensive missiles are now poised in japan, in south korea

and on guam where there are 6,000 troops. the united states says it will track any missiles launched by kim jong-un and quickly decide whether to shoot them down. our correspondents are covering this from around the world. we're being joined this hour and being followed by every new development. first, let's go to our pentagon correspondent chris lawrence for the very latest. >> reporter: wolf, a u.s. official says north korea could test a mobile ballistic missile at any time. what happens after that depends on where that test takes place. the u.s. has been pouring over the latest satellite images of north korea and the intelligence assessment is they've likely completed all preparations to launch. an administration official says the missiles have probably

received their liquid fuel even though the u.s. has no way to confirm that information on the ground, the military is sending a clear message to kim jong-un. it's not when you launch the moussadan missiles, it's where. if it flies out over the water, they do not want it shot down. >> i would not recommend that. if we have any predetermined imw, we should have a good sense of where it's aimed. >> reporter: if it's aimed over land in japanese territory, interceptor missiles could intercept it. >> if it's at our allies, i would say we should intercept it. >> reporter: this was like the tests when the u.s. had understanding of where it was going. >> to understand the direction of the launch, where it's at. >> reporter: they will calculate the trajectory. locklear admits the u.s. won't

know as much as soon. >> in this case, in the scenario we're in, we're possibly looking at being able to see it being in a general location and then to sense a launch. >> reporter: will north korea launch or stand down? locklear says it's hard to read kim jong-un. >> his father and grandfather always figured into their provocation cycle an off ramp of how to get out of it, and it's not clear to me that he has thought through how to get out of it. >> reporter: u.s. officials are working through the assumption that he will not issue a mariners warning. that's a warning don't be in this area at this specific time because that's where the missile could land. it's also a heads up that a missile launch is imminent. they're operating under the assumption that north korea may

not do that at this time. bottom line, a missile that flies over the water, goes into the water is just a test. >> they're worried, obviously, though about that worst case scenario. chris lawrence at the pentagon watching it all unfold. it's wednesday on the korean peninsula, the day kim jong-un has int hadded he might take specific action and threats of war have gotten more urge gent by the hour. we're in south korea in seoul for us right now. what's the latest there, kim? >> reporter: well, the countdown clock is on because it's in the morning time. in a rare move, what we've heard from pyongyang is a threat for international visitors.

another threat from pyongyang. north korean state tv warning foreign institutions, companies, tourists, for their own safety, take shelter and evacuate seoul and the rest of north korea. they may be heading towards thermonuclear war. >> i am concerned not to make the trip. >> reporter: atlanta visitor is in seoul for business. she's not rattled though kim jong-un's threats did get her to register with the u.s. embassy. >> that particular threat doesn't heighten the sense of danger i feel anymore than just everything that's been occurring for the past couple of weeks. >> reporter: it has been a long couple of weeks coming to a head now. south korea's capitol bracing itself to see if the unpredictable leader in the north would carry out the threat of a missile launch. >> translator: it's hard not to be worried, she says, but i doubt they'll attack.

>> reporter: south koreans are numb to the onslaught of threats but they're also practiced in living it. monthly civil defense drills where people in seoul practice city wide emergency evacuations. seoul is a city of 11 million people one hour from the dmz. what all of these people know is if there's some sort of attack, they know to head underground. shelter or the subways, which double as underground bunkers. seoul is a maze of underground concrete halls, but most of the residents don't believe they'll ever have to use them. why south african native wayne n nschutte isn't worried. hoping the talk as loud as it gets stays just that, talk. the south korean presidential office is dismissing this latest threat against foreigners saying that this is just more psychological warfare from the

north but certainly people are paying attention as is the stock market. it continues to drop as does the korean currency. wolf. >> concerns in korea and concerns sure. kyung lah, thank you. we're joined by senator carl levin. thank you very much for coming in. >> great to be with you, wolf. >> i know your panel had extensive hearings today with the u.s. military commander from the region. the administration we're told is told that missile launch could be imminent. what are you hearing? >> it could be imminent. we have to assume there could be a test launch the way they've tested previous missiles before. that's a totally different story from if there's an attack on a target. for instance, couple years back in 2010 north korea attacked a south korean ship, killed 46 south korean sailors. they've attacked with artillery

a south korean island. so whether this is a test of a missile which is providing it's not targeted at south korea, the u.s., any of our allies, providing it is aimed at the water as a missile test, that's a very different deal than if it's targeted at us or our allies? >> what if it is that worst case scenario? is the u.s. ready to take military action against north korea? >> we are. our pacific commander today said that we are ready with a variety of responses for the south koreans or us to choose should there be an attack on south korea or on us, but it's also clear, he said, that we can shoot down a missile that is aimed at us. those two points were made very clearly this morning by admiral locklear, both that we can shoot down a missile if it is targeted

at south korea or us, but also that we will act. and we are ready to act in some proportionate way to an attack by north korea. >> because as you well know, senator, in 2010 those two incidents you mentioned when north korea attacked positions in south korea including killing 46 south korean sailors aboard that warship, there was no retaliation from either south korea or the united states. what i hear you saying, this time there will be. >> this is what the admiral says and i believe that is true, and that is that the north koreans this time can expect that there will be a response. he didn't lay out what the options are nor should he in public, but he did say very precisely that this time it would be likely and expected that there would be a response. frankly, i think it's obvious that the north koreans would have faced some kind of a response in the words of admiral locklear and this time would not

get off without that kind of a response. it would be presumably proportionate in some way to what the attack is. we're not going to up the ante and have events spiral out of control if we can help it, but north korea is not going to get off scott free if they attack a south korean or american ally target. >> there are 50,000 in japan, 6,000 on the island of guam, and it raises questions, have they gone into a heightened state of alert? >> well, we've -- i assume they have. i don't know that for a fact, but i assume that they have. we've also taken some other actions. there's been some airplanes that have flown there flying over south korea, both b-2s as well as f-22s as well. there's a b-52 flight that's gone there. we have some ships that have

gone there. there's radar in place. the united states has responded in kind of a firm way. we haven't used the hot rhetoric that the north koreans have, heated rhetoric which hopefully is bluster. we on the other hand can't assume that it's only bluster, we have to be ready for whatever comes and we are. >> senator levin, thank you. >> thank you. >> jay carney will talk about the obama administration's secret communications with north korea. what's going on. we'll share with you what we know. plus, kim jong-un's rise to power, his pampered youth and his mysterious family. the u.s. response. our special situation report continues right after this. uhh, it's my geico insurance id card, sir.

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north korea now poised to test fire mobile ballistic missiles literally any time

without warning. that according to top u.s. officials. the man with his finger on the launch trigger is largely a mystery. cnn's brian todd is here investigating kim jong-un, his family for us. what else are you learning? >> wolf, we've learned that kim jong-un may not have been the original choice to succeed his father. he's got two older brothers, one who apparently squandered his chance, the other seen as too weak. we're now left with an unproven, unknown young man whose country has already tested nuclear devices. >> reporter: how did we end up with such a young dictator menacing the world. kim jong-un was reported to have been pampered as a young man. sent to boarding school in switzerland, developed an affinity for james bond and the nba, hence the recent dennis rodman visit. he spent virtually no time in north korea's army when his father elevated him to a general's rank in 2010.

that was one of the first signs that kim had leap frogged his two oldest brothers. kim jung-nan took his play boy lifestyle. the japanese police spent hours and hours with him. they learned a lot about him. >> reporter: analyst mike green said he lives in makow. speaks to journalists too much for the family's liking. >> they can't kill him but they can't let him run the country. he's not a reliable vehicle. >> reporter: then there's a mysterious middle brother. local media showed this photo claiming it was him at an eric clapton concert. >> he was a feminist, timid. >> reporter: just as enigmatic,

the young woman to be kim jong-un's wife, a former singer, could she have any influence over him. >> is it possible she'll say what about the north korean people, the starving people? >> maybe, but that's not the background she grew up in. >> reporter: that helps them think about what kim jong-un's thinking now. >> what's your best thinking? >> the aim is to rattle us, frighten us, also the chinese and south koreans and also rattle us to not implement sanctions. >> reporter: they say kim may be trying to compensate for the fact he's so young, 29 or 30. analysts say he has to show strength with the military. >> he's trying to look as a man as 30 in a con fush shan society as tough. that's his way of looking at the generals like he's in control. >> he may lose control if he cannot produce a male heir.

there were reports at the end of last year and early this year that she had been pregnant, may have given birth to a daughter, but nothing solid beyond that. >> we also know that kim jong-un has another relative that has significant power influence in north korea. >> that's right, it's his uncle married to kim's late father's sister. analysts believe that he, the uncle, may still be running the government in large part dealing with policy and things like that while kim jong-un makes all the public appearances and deals with the military. behind the scenes maneuver is fascinating. a lot of tea leaf reading. >> trying to learn as much as they can, u.s. intill will he against. brian, thanks. christian in a a.m. manpower and fareed zakaria.

the obama administration now believes a test launch of north korean missiles could be imminent and that north korea would not give the standard warning to shipping in the region, to aviation in the region. they're taking this very, very seriously. what do you make of it? >> reporter: obviously it has to be taken very seriously. i've got the latest issue of the economist which basically says korean roulette. you see kim jong-un's finger on the red button. that pretty much sums up the feelings. we simply have not heard these kinds of threats from the north korean leadership for, you know, more than 20 years or so. so they are very concerned. i was fascinated by senator levin and admiral locklear who testified today that they would not necessarily recommend shooting down a north korean missile unless it was aimed in

anger and it was targeted either at the u.s. homeland or at allies like japan or south korea. that they wouldn't recommend shooting that down because they are terribly afraid of miss calculations and generating a wider conflict. they're worried because the pressure is on south korea and the new president, the fact that they did not respond the last time that their ship was destroyed, 46 sailors were killed. they didn't respond when that island was attacked and so now they're concerned that the south koreans will have to respond if there's an attack that threatens them and their people. also though, at the same time our producers in the region have been calling around and the latest information, and you heard some of it from kyung lah, none of the foreign embassies in seoul nor the u.s. embassy is telling their people to leave.

the same in pyongyang. embassies are not yet telling their people to leave. >> we'll see what happens over the next few days because these are critically important symbolic days leading up to april 15th, the birthday, if you will, of the founder of the north korean regime. what do you make, fareed, of senator mccain and some others who say, you know what, if they launch a missile, shoot it down, intercept it, destroy it even if it's heading into the middle of the water. obviously if it's heading towards a populated area of tokyo, guam, south korea, that goes without saying it. knock it out to make a point. >> i think it's a very good example of the difference between what a john mccain foreign policy would be and what president obama's has been. president obama has been trying to show some strength, not to play into the kind of yank your chain that the north koreans are trying to do. they're trying to get attention to get negotiations to get

concessions. they've been threatening like a child who is screaming and not being paid attention to. they're screaming more and more loudly. yesterday they shut down the joint industrial part with the south koreans which is a bigger issue. they're doing more things to get noticed. senator mccain's strategy would play into their hands. what they want is for the rest to react to this, then they can respond to what they would say is an act of provocation. the trick is to maintain some restraint. don't play into that dialogue and reassure the japanese and deter the north koreans. i think it would be a wrong thing. it would be a tit-for-tat that would escalate in an entirely wrong manner. precisely what the admiral spoke about. it would be a hotheaded response when what we need are calm and steady nerves. >> both of you, stand by. we're going to continue this

analysis on our special situation room report. north korea needs only five minutes to hit japan and the island nation is ready with patriot missiles deployed. we'll have a live report. president obama's spokesman delivers a direct message to north korea right here in "the situation room."

happening now, north korea's neighbors have their defenses up now. stand by with reports from the region. it's now bracing for kim jong-un's next move. it could happen at any time. the big question right now, if north korea launches a missile soon, where would it go? we're mapping out the

possibilities and the threat of war. and new fears about an axis of evil. is iran's volatile leader helping north korea develop nuclear weapons or vice versa? i'm wolf blitzer and this is "the situation room" special report, north korean crisis. the world is watching north korea's every move right now as we've been reporting, a u.s. official tells cnn the regime could go ahead with a provocative test literally at any time and without warning. japan is close to north korea and is on alert. diana magnas standing by with the very latest. what is the very latest, diana? >> reporter: wolf, japan's prime minister said he will do whatever it takes to protect the japanese people. that's why he's moved patriot

antimissile batteries right into the very center of the japanese capitol. in the dead of night japanese self-defense forces placed the missiles in the heart of the city. those with homes overlooking the ministry of defense waking to clad machines of war in amongst the cherry trees. it's not the first time japan has deployed these missile batteries three times since 2009. every time north korea has announced it will launch a satellite. the aegis destroyers were sent into the sea. analysts say japan is not a target as such. >> north koreans are not trying to attack japan, but to impress

or scare the americans. >> reporter: tokyo is just 800 miles from pyongyang. north korea has accused japan of blindly towing u.s. policy while threatening to strike u.s. military bases on japanese territory. the general has come out in search of tv crews like us. >> this is japan. >> reporter: yes. >> north korean missiles carrying heat. >> reporter: he says he feels the u.s. took that eye off the bull with north korea focusing too much instead on the middle east and iran's nuclear intentions. >> it was a miscommunication between united states and north korea, conflict you'll have. >> reporter: the patriot antimissile battery is as much a symbol of readiness for the north korean's defiant young

leader. wolf, the missile that north korea is planning to test, it's the first time they would have tested one of those. the concern for japan is if it malfunctions, which it's happened, then there's a very real chance that debris could fall down on to japanese soil and that is what the japanese self-defense forces have to be prepared for. >> certainly do. nervousness in tokyo. diana magnay reporting. let's take a look at some possible scenarios where they might fire a mice siel, what kind of response that would trigger from cnn's allies. what are you guys seeing? >> wolf, we've been gaming all afternoon. north korea, here, south korea here. let's say north korea did launch a missile and it went out over here and into the sea, what

happens? >> there will be a tracking. the telemetry of that will be tracked. we'll identify where the launch is, what the arc is. >> we would know within seconds? >> instantaneously we would pick this up by sea, ground, air, space. this integrated target system. the japanese have an aegis system. >> if it went out there and it was not headed towards any target. it went to sea, as north korea said, would there be any response? >> there would be no kinetic response. we would not fire back. if we knew it was going to land harmlessly, we would collect intelligence. >> let's look at another scenario. let's say that north korea with a missile or artillery started shelling some sort of target down here in south korea, specifically let me say a south korean military target. no u.s. troops involved, not a

civilian target. what happens then? >> very important to differ enshe say the between striking a u.s. facility in south korea or south korean facility. what i think would happen immediately is the response if north korea fires, the united nations command, the combined forces command of the united states and korea would return very precise fire against that location of launch. not to escalate, but to maintain the dmz and the armistice. if they fire, we would fire back. >> simple equation on that. let's look at the one scenario that possibly gets much more out of hand among things that seem like they might vaguely be possible. what if north korea did something like when they shelled some islands over here saying it's disputed territory in terms of who owns what, let's say they attack the facility like this in a strong way and try to land there to seize the property? what happens then? >> tom, not unlike what we

talked about. if they tried to occupy, there would be a fight to get that back. i don't us spesuspect that woul happen. what might occur, we have to think about this. the 2018 olympics is in pyongchung. this is where the winter olympics are. if north korea was to take an action, that would cause an incredible international implications and possibly reconsideration. is this where the winter olympics really are going to be held six years from now after the leadership has had some additional time to try to weaponize nuclear capabilities. >> any indication that even if they did this this would spark a larger war or would it be contained? >> tom, the objective of the

armies cities and cease fire is to maintain the armies tis. it is to hold what we have. >> wolf. some of the ways that it could play out if it continues growing in the h in pressure the way it is. >> we'll watch it together. good explanation. thank you. up next, a message from president obama to north korea. the white house press secretary, jay carney, delivers that message from here in "the situation room." plus, the growing fear of nuclear cooperation between iran and north korea. stay with us.

obama administration says it's ready to respond to whatever happens on the korean peninsula. i asked the white house press secretary, jay carney, if the president has met with his national security advisors. >> the situation in north korea and the developments we've seen in the last days and weeks are the subject of the president's regular national security briefings, one of the subjects to be sure. it's something that we've been watching very closely and that the president is concerned about and that is why, wolf, as you know we have taken a series of precautionary measures in response to what we have been seeing out of pyongyang. it is also important to remember, wolf, that this is part of a pattern of behavior. this predates this current episode that is reminiscent of some of the actions taken by the regime in pyongyang in the past under previous administrations

and it never serves any purpose for the ultimate goal of the north koreans which is to improve their economic lot and for the regime which their goal should be to rejoin the community of nations by proving that they are willing to abide by their international obligation. >> there's a report out there, josh rogan on foreign policy blog suggests that we met with a top north korean member in march. is that true? >> wolf, we have always been clear that we have a channel of communications with the north koreans and we utilize that channel, but the issue here is not whether or not we're having communications with north koreans, it's the north korean thus far to flaut its obligations, to engage in provocative rhetoric and behavior that only heightens tension and seeks to destabilize the region. it is why we are consulting

regularly with our allies in seoul and tokyo. it's why we've been, working with the russians to persuade the north koreans to rachet down the rhetoric and cease the destabilizing actions. this is an all fronts effort that we're engaged in. we're taking all the necessary recautions that we have to. >> i ask the question about the u.s. north korean channel because senator dianne feinstein said she hopes u.s. top officials would engage with them to try to ease this crisis. can you confirm that that channel was used in march? >> i can confirm broadly that we have a channel of communications, wolf. we've been clear about that. but the issue here is north korean behavior and rhetoric. there is a path open to north korea that would lead it to

lessen the isolation that it currently endures that would lead to greater economic prosperity or opportunity for the north korean people, but that path lies through fulfilling its obligations in the international arena, fulfilling its obligation under a series of united nations security resolutions. it was last month that the security council unanimously, including the russians and chinese, sanctioned the north koreans for some of its actions in this regard. there is a concerted national effort underway to help north korea take the right path. >> has the president spoken on the phone with the leaders in the region, south korea, japan, china, russia for that matter? >> the president has been engaged with communications with our partners and allies. i don't have a specific conversation to read out on this issue. we have certainly been engaged with our chinese and russian

counterparts as well as very closely with our allies in seoul and tokyo. i don't have specific presidential conversations to read out. we're working very closely with the japanese and south koreans as well as others to bring a change in behavior to the north koreans. >> one final question, if they're watching you, what message would the president have to share with the leaders of north korea right now? >> that it is in the interest of north korea, in the interest of the people of that country that there be stability on the korean peninsula and it is in the interest of people of north korea that the regime fulfill its international obligations and cease pursuit of nuclear weapons and cease violations of its obligations regarding missile development and testing. if it chooses that path, north

korea will have an opportunity to rejoin the community of nations and to inbe crease economic development and opportunity in its country, but the obligations are what they are and the united states is not alone. the united states is part of a broad international consensus with regard to what north korea must do in order to get right with the world. >> jay carney delivering a message to north korea from the president of the united states. we're going to get reaction to that message from the white house to north korea. we'll discuss it as soon as we come back.

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we're back. what did you think of jay carney's message to pyongyang? >> i think what was interesting was they've done this before. there was a path open for them. he was stealth and stern but kept pointing out that there was a path out of this crisis, that there were benefits at the end of it. i thought it was exactly the kind of message you want to convey, which is we're going to be tough on this. we're not going to jump every time you yank our chain but there is a path out and we do want to see some path out.

he also pointed out correctly that this is not a u.s. versus north korea thing which, by the way, is exactly how the north koreans portray this. if you watch and read what you can about north korea's portrayal about this on state media, it's north korea against the big super power. he tried to place it in the context of other countries like russia and china. >> you've been to north korea twice. you've been speaking with your sources. what are they telling you about how the united states is dealing with this current crisis with china right now which clearly has a lot of influence with north korea? >> well, this is the central part of u.s. diplomacy right now. you know that secretary carrey is on his way. he will go to tokyo, beijing, seoul. he'll talk about what's going on. particularly with the chinese trying to see if they can figure out, persuade the chinese that

they have a mutual interest in stopping this behavior by kim jong-un. i'm also told it's probably publicly known that the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff is heading over there and so will the head of the cia. the idea is to, quote, have a deep dive into beijing and have everyone try to convince the top leadership in beijing that they hold the key and that it's in their interest as well as everybody else's interests to get this brought back from the brink. you know, again, while they know and jay carney said just a couple of minutes ago this is the way for north koreans to step back, the problem is does kim jong-un really understand this off ramp as admiral locklear pointed out and as many people are worried about? they know that these sort of provocations has gone on for decades now but this young leader, they don't know whether he knows how to get off on the

off ramp. that's a big issue. of course, there is this new york channel. the state department, while it won't confirm any details of what was said, does admit that that is still open, that channel and i know from personal experience this is a communications channel. they don't communicate. the north korean representative is not authorized to communicate but he does take messages back to pyongyang. it can take ages to get messages back. >> they have diplomatic representation in pyongyang. what do you make of this so called new york channel, fareed. u.s. officials meeting with north korean officials assigned to the united nations in new york. apparently nothing much came of that last meeting in march. >> it's totally meaningless, wolf. in a regime like north korea, the decisions are highly centralized. they're made at the top. you have to be negotiating with those people. look, there are other countries

that have representation in north korea and the crucial issue is, again, china. the real negotiation that has to take place is between beijing and pyongyang. the key person in that is kim jong-un's uncle. that dialogue is one we are unfortunately not privy to. so i think that the secretary of state going to china, the chairman of the joint chiefs going to china helps a lot, but fundamentally the chinese need to understand that there is now great danger of instability on the korean peninsula. yes, north korea collapsing would be a big problem for china. it would be a big problem for the region. but even if they don't -- even if north korea doesn't collapse, there's a danger of instability anyway. north korea has now become the driver of that instability. simply propping up this terrible regime is not going to work. the chinese still have not come to that conclusion. at the end of the day the

chinese believe stability means propping up this regime. what we have to convince them, this is the task for john kerry, this is the task for general dempsey, is to convince the chinese that stability means in some way resolving this completely weird, irrational, unpredictable regime reining it in. otherwise it's not just the north koreans might do something, the japanese might react, we need to get china on board. >> fareed and christiana. an important report. tune in to fareed zakaria gps every sunday. a nuclear nightmare scenario coming up. why the u.s. believes iran and north korea may be working together on weapons.

there are new and ominous developments involving the cooperation between north korea and iran. jill dougherty is investigating it. we will share that information with you tomorrow on our special

edition of the situation room. the crisis in north korea. this connection between north korea cooperating with iran on nuclear weapons, what's going on. stay with us. tomorrow jill dougherty's report coming up. meanwhile, an unnerving message from north korea warning all foreigners to flee south korea because war may be imminent. what's going on. david mckenzie is joining us from beijing. david, china has enormous influence we're told in north korea. are they engaging in some quiet diplomacy right now? >> reporter: well, wolf, they're engaging in quiet diplomacy, but not out in the open. even though north korea threatened foreigners in south korea, there are many foreigners, including chinese there, and the chinese foreign ministry said that they don't want war, they want peace. they don't want tensions, they want dialogue. no open criticisms of north korea. certainly not racheting up in public any kind of pressure on

north korea. that has many lawmakers in washington frustrated. obviously they say china could have a huge amount of leverage on the north korean regime. >> what about the u.s./china level of cooperation as far as north korea is concerned? we know secretary of state john kerry is heading towards beijing. what's the latest as far as cooperation or confrontation as far as north korea is concerned? >> reporter: well, many analysts you talk to here in china have a very different take to what maybe some analysts in the u.s. are saying, wolf. while the u.s. is saying china needs to push north korea, people hearsay this has nothing to do with north korea, this is all about the chinese american relationship. north korea hasn't been directly threatening beijing with any kind of rhetoric or threats of any kind of weapon attack. china has a very different take on this. they believe north korea is useful to them. it provides a buffer between

u.s. and south korean forces and with this much tauted visit to asia, chinese officials are nervous about anything that could end the status quo. another friend of china, co-op perfect ra igs agreement with china is the u.s. if the u.s. believes this is important and they can apply enough pressure on china behind the scenes, that pressure from the u.s. could get it to push north korea to end this rhetoric. really, china doesn't see much threat from north korea. if they see it, they see a long-term threat, nothing in the immediate future. we asked online if north korea launches a test missile, how should the u.s. respond. bob on facebook says we need to show force and show them that we are not playing around with them. a different viewpoint from tyler on twitter. keep a cool head and a steady hand.