cnn's beijing bureau chief is worth a read. you can find it all on the reliable sources blog on cnn.com. thanks for watching this week. i'd love to hear what you thought of today's show on facebook and twitter. i hope you all have a merry christmas and we'll see you right back here live next week sunday at 11:00 a.m. "state of the union with candy crowley" begins right now. dozens of americans trapped inside an increasingly unstable south sudan. and imbalance at the nsa, security versus privacy. today a panel the president appointed tells him to rein in the national security agency. >> whatever benefits the configuration of this program may have may be outweighed by the concerns that people have on this potential abuse. and if that's the case, there may be another way of skinning the cat. >> we talked to democrat joe

manchin about that, the future for obamacare harry reid's senate leadership. and double down and breakout talk to us about washington politics and look into their crystal balls. then a bonus section, a prominent critic of russian president putin is pardoned by putin and now sits down for an exclusive with cnn. this is "state of the union. "as many as threes to americans working for the u.n. are trapped in troubled south sudan. evacuation efforts failed saturday when gunmen fired on three u.s. military aircraft and wounded four service members. those troops are in stable condition. i want to bring in cnn's pentagon correspondent, barbara starr and foreign affairs reporter. barbara, let me start with you.

we should say, barbara, as far is there any sense that they were targeted because they were obviously u.s. aircraft or because there are a lot of 17 and 18-year-old rebels just firing at anything in the air? >> well, this is the question to which there's no answer at the moment. gunmen would have seen the american flag perhaps painted on the side of the aircraft. the feeling is the aircraft were targeted whatever the motivation was. we've gotten word from a u.s. senior official these united nations flights the out of this very violent region, the united nations flights that took place earlier today did include some americans so the sense of it now in the last few minutes is that some american civilians likely now are out of bor.

the u.n. said it was relocating all its essential staff out of that area because the violence is so bad. the so we will see in the coming hours if there are still american civilians there, how many, how they might decide to get them out if they need to do it. it looks at the moment now, however, like the united nations is having some success in getting people out of there, but the real message here is the violence is so bad that the aid workers can't stay, and that leaves tens of thousands of south sudanese in very dire circumstances. >> and, elise, something obviously the u.s. would like to have stop is this raging civil war in a country the u.s. actually helped create or approved of the creation. what is going on? >> most of the americans were helping to build up the country. the african kcountries are takig

the lead. there are a lot of envoys there. secretary of state john kerry sent an envoy himself, ambassador donald booth is on his way there. unclear when he's going to land. basically the goal is to get these warring factions, the government forces, and the forces loyal to former vice president who is believed to have started the fighting to sit down, walk back from the brink and start a political dialogue before this erupts into a full-on civil war. >> and finally, barbara, just so i have this straight, it is possible at this point to think that perhaps the u.n. could bring out these u.s. citizens who had, in fact, been working for the u.n. and no need for another u.s. military attempt at this. >> well, we are looking at that by the moment. the sense at the pentagon is the u.s. was successful in getting these flights out of there. that some americans were onboard. they're trying to do a head

count, figure out how many americans may be left there and what they need to do next to get them out of there, but right now it looks like some number of them were able to get out through the united nations. >> thanks to you both. a busy day ahead. appreciate it. he has bucked his party as many times as he's backed it. in the process made friends on both sides of the aisle. earlier i spoke with west virginia senator joe manchin. i want to start out with the nsa. it made news this week, at least a panel reviewing what it did. what do you make of the advisory panel recommendations? >> the thing we need to do in this country which is our responsibility, especially as elected officials and government as a whole is how do we protect the privacies of each and every american? but also protect the security of our country? there's a fine balance there. so i'm open to listen to all the recommendations that has come out to see if we can improve upon that. without infringing on my rights

and my freedoms and my privacy. but also i've got to give a little bit as i understand. i remember the days i used to walk on an airplane without any scrutiny, without any security whatsoever. those days have passed. you know what? i still fly. >> do you think that the program -- the meta data program is getting most, a collection of what appears to be most of if not all of the phone calls made here in the u.s.? and it tells you like where it was placed, who placed it, how long it ran, where the call went to, is that over the line as far as you're concerned? >> you know, we always heard as a child growing up and as we have different phases of our life that big brother is watching you. and now we found out that big brother is truly watching you. >> we had a district court judge opinion earlier in the week in which he wrote about this meta data collection.

i have serious doubts about the i have serious doubts about the ef kaes of the metadata collection program as a means of conducting time sensitive investigations in cases involving imminent threats of terrorism. then we get the report out over the next couple days. they said our review suggests that information contributed to terrorist investigations by the use of section 215 telephoning metadata was not essential to other methods. it just sort of sounds to me like they don't really need it and yet it's the most intrusive thing. >> right. i think what we'll do with that panel's recommendation is be able to double down and look and see what is the necessity? what is safety? what are we willing to give up? and what is unnecessary for someone to have that information? i think we're getting to that point. you're going to find backing off some, make something changes that will keep us secure and safe and also not intruding the way we have been.

>> i want to turn you now to obamacare. do you have any concerns at all that this system, i'm not talking about the computer and the glitches whatever you want to call it, next year when this goes into force, are you worried that there will be a meltdown of the system that it will just skyrocket everybody's premiums. it won't deliver the care it's promised? >> my concern was this. when you have a country the size of the united states of america that spends more than any other nation on earth per capita, i think we're $8,600 for every man, woman and child on health care. and that's double almost or close, i think finland is the closest. with that being said, and ranked 34rd in the world. something's wrong. we have to do better. is this the right thing? probably not. is it a step moving it? yes, we're moving the ball for it. i've only asked for one thing. i said i'm not worried about the glitches, computer glitches. we'll fix that sooner or later. i'm worried about having the product that market will buy. with that being said, we introduced a bill.

the only bipartisan bill that says why don't you wait basically before we put any crimes or fines until january 1, 2015. this whole 2014 will be a transitional year to find out where our glitches are and our little nuances we have to work for and find out if the market can produce the products that we need to keep this healthy. that's what it's all about. >> do you think at the end of the day we will look at this system when the administration tells us like who signed up and who hasn't signed up that it's going to give the insurance companies what they need to make this work? >> well here's at the end of the day, if it's so much more expensive than what we anticipated and that the coverage is not as good as what we've had, you've got a complete meltdown with that time. so this transitional year gives you a chance to adjust the products to the market. and to see if the market will absorb and buy the product. you can't tell someone give me all your vitals and then i'll let you shop. >> in other words, they have to say here's all this information

about me. and then you have to buy something? >> are they willing to basically come to the realization this is all america is willing to pay and this is what they're willing to pay and are they getting best product? don't say this is what you got to buy whether you like it or not and you're going to pay more even though you didn't think you were. i think that's where we are. so i'd like to say, can you move the ball forward? can i get more people insured? can i get more people healthier? do i have to have people in jeopardy of one catastrophic illness into bankruptcy. can we not agree as democrats and republicans those are worthy goals to get rid of and move to a healthier populace for a healthy workforce. >> do you think this falls on its own weight? >> the cost becomes more than we can absorb, absolutely. >> let me turn you to gun control. do you think there's any chance going into an election year, as you know, that there can be major form of gun control legislation before the end of next year? >> you know, this has been a challenging year. you would think after the one

year since we've -- the newtown horrific tragedy that happened there, but the bottom line is i think me and pat toomey looked at this coming from gun states, gun culture states, gun owners ourselves who really will do all we can to protect the second amendment that every law abiding gun owner will protect. with that being said, the people that basically are law abiding gun owners and understand gun culture, they weren't offended by saying if you go to a commercial transaction that makes sense to go ahead and find out is that person that wants to buy your gun a criminal? what we found out is that people just didn't trust government that they were going to stop there. they said hey joe, we're okay with the bill. we like the bill. the bill is not bad at all. we can live with that. but we just don't trust government stopping and doing what we say we're going to do. >> do you think that anything will get passed next year? >> i'm hopeful. >> i know you are. what do you think will happen? >> right now, you know the makeup of the senate. we have 55 democrats. i think all 55 would consider

that. i know we had a few that did not. hopefully they reconsider. i don't know their position. i'm not going to force anybody and make anyone uncomfortable. they all know they have to live with themselves and go back home and explain it. so it's going to be difficult to get the extra votes we need. i'll be honest. >> harry reid, the majority leader in your party, said recently he wants to run for re-election in 2016 and he wants to remain majority leader. how do you think he's done? grade him for me. >> harry is a nice person. he's been very cordial to me. we disagree on many things, as you know. but we do it in respectful way. i think everybody has to look and see what results and successes you had and where you think you are and could have done better and improve upon that and make decisions if you still have the good fight in you. i respect that. i think he'll make those decisions. >> how do you think he's done when you look at his leadership style and where he's taken the senate? >> well, you know, we all have different styles. i would like to see more of an

engaging from him and the majority leader from that standpoint and put differences aside, put politics aside. >> you mean mcconnell? >> yes. majority leader, senator mcconnell. and sometimes if that doesn't work, you follow through. if it's not jelling, you have to question why and who and see if you can make amends and make it better. i always pray that harry tries to reach out. i think he will. and try to make amends and try to move forward for the sake of our country and the sake of the senate. >> when i talk to democrats, they tend to say to criticize the president for his lack of reaching out to senate members to house members, what would you say your relationship is like with him? >> i would say that mine is probably like the majority of senators and especially democrats up there. everybody has a different style again as we've said. and that's just not in the president's nature. to pal around and, you know, the

gregarious type of personality that is like bill clinton. two different people. >> does it hurt the country's business? >> well, it makes it more difficult. it's hard to say no to a friend. when you build that relationship and that friendship, you're looking for ways to try to work things out and find a compromise and that friendship means an awful lot. when you don't build the personal relationships, it's pretty easy for a person to say well let me think about it and not go that extra effort. so everybody has a different style. i just -- i love to be around people. i love to talk to people. i'm going to find out if we disagree what do we agree on? i know what we disagree on. and if we agree on something, is that strong enough to build something off it? how do we move further? i always looked at it and it's not about democrat or republican. being a democrat in west virginia, i took an oath as governor to serve all the people, not just the democrats or those who voted for me. everybody. >> as you know, not a lot of that happens on capitol hill.

>> i know. i keep trying. i keep saying if i can bring little west virginia common sense and let them see how we do things, maybe it will help. >> when you look at this honestly and look at the legislative agenda, whether it's gun control, whether it's mental health, when you look at immigration reform and the other things, climate change is another thing that the president pushed, realistically speaking, what is going to happen next year? >> i would ask the president to evaluate what his legacy would be and what he would want it to be. >> pretty much obamacare, is it not? >> i would like for the last three years to get our financial house in order. to really take it upon and him to grab this and say listen, no matter what we talk about, no matter what our personal agenda may be and he has a very robust agenda, none of it will happen unless can you afford to pay for it. and that bothers me right now because we have not as a nation taken the debt of this nation and the financial condition of this country as serious as we

should. and there's going to be a crash sooner or later. i don't want to hit the wall if i can avoid it. and that's what i keep saying. all of these things are noble causes. he and i differ on his whole energy or lack what i consider lack of energy. but i want to work in the most productive manner. i think you have to have an all in energy policy. use all the resources. education is challenging. how are we going to have the workforce to compete in the 21st century when other countries are outeducating us? >> you know how long people want a big grand bargain. it seems impossible in this atmosphere. you overlay an election year. it makes it harder. minimum wage, do you think that might pass next year? an increase? >> i would think if they look at the disparity that we have in this country and how far we're getting apart, something has to be changed. i think the strongest argument, i think the wage was $1.60 in 1968.

we would be at over $10, well over $10. but with that being said, i think that there are so many people now because we lost so many of the good jobs. doesn't that tell you need to change your tax laws and corporate laws that allows corporations that sell off shore and not pay taxes, take jobs off shore but use our -- use this consumer market to sell in? things need to change. >> realistically speaking, try to take your democrat hat off here and see just being an analyst for a moment. do you think that obamacare will be a major factor in determining the success of democrats in 2014? >> it's weighing heavy on that. i'm very close to our democrats who are up right now. and even the republicans who are my friends. they're using that. they think that's a great advantage they have. the democrats right now are feeling the weight of it. it needs to turn around. we need to show we're moving in a healthy, well more -- situation within our society.

if it doesn't happen, if it becomes such a burden, if the small businesses have a burden, if now we have a large employer kicking in and their plans are changing and you know all of our working unions are having some challenges, if all that doesn't come together, that's why i keep saying that's why we need that transitional year. sit down and work through it. don't force it. >> if that does not happen in the way you sort of envision or outline it for us, do you think that the democrats will lose the senate? >> i'm not going to say i think we would lose. it's going to be extremely challenging. we have some very good people who are truly there, i believe, for the right reason. they're going to be challenged for the wrong reason. >> senator joe manchin, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you for having me, candy. when we return, the president defends the tactics used by the national security agency. >> i have can haonfidence in tht the nsa is not engaging in

domestic surveillance or snoops around. >> do members of that advisory panel agree? we will talk with one of them next. i didn't know the coal thing was real. it's very real... david rivera. rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. the day building a play set begins with a surprise twinge of back pain... and a choice. take up to 4 advil in a day or 2 aleve for all day relief. [ male announcer ] that's handy. ♪

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a white house advisory panel recommends the national security agency stop collecting information for a massive phone database that includes the when, where, and how long about most phone calls made and received in the u.s. it is one of 46 recommendations made by the panel. joining me now a member of that review board, a professor of law and ethics at georgia tech university. thanks for being here this morning. you said the so-called metadata phone base was not essential in stopping attacks. in the more than decade long

this has been in effect, did you find that it stopped any terrorist attack? >> so we had people including people who have been in the cia for 30 years and richard clarke who is a senior counterterrorism adviser in our group, and when we dug into that and looked at more than 50 cases where these databases were supposed to be used, we found some of the other databases were essential but the phone metadata base we did not find it essential to preventing any attack. >> so after all of this that you've heard, did that -- about this before you got into looking at it, did that surprise you that, like, no terrorist attack has been stopped by what proved to be a pretty controversial program? >> well, i think i tried to go into this with an open mind on the facts. we got very classified briefings. we were able to dig around wherever we asked for with the agencies. and i'd say it was somewhat sprising but i think in the intelligence world there's an understandable idea that we want the data we can get and we're just worried if we don't get the

data that might be the thing that breaks the camel's back and we don't find out about the attack. there's an understandable temptation in the intelligence side if you can collect it to collect it. one of the themes of our report is that just because you can do it that doesn't mean you should. and so we tried to figure out some ways to really keep the key things going and to make sure that happens, but this particular database we did not find essential. >> so in broad terms, there are 48 recommendations here and you looked at more than just this program. you looked at some other tactics of the nsa, some other programs. what would you say surprised you the most that you found sort of across the spectrum? >> i don't know if it's a surprise but it was a pleasant surprise to see how following the law the nsa is. from the outside people have worried that it's a rogue agency, that it's not following the law. and now they have people working very hard to make sure that happens.

i say it's a pleasant thing to find out. maybe not a surprise but a lot better than people on the outside maybe thought. >> but you did find overreach. that's fair to say, is it not? >> right. i think you can think of it as a mid course correction. so a lot of the things that get done overseas we should do it. it's a dangerous world out there. but this phone metadata database for foreign intelligence purposes, that mismatch between domestic and foreign, i think, is a concern. we don't really want the spy agencies looking at every phone record at home when you're calling your family members and so we're trying to figure out how to move forward on that piece of the puzzle. >> the president gave a news conference on friday before he left for his christmas vacation. not wholesale sort of hugging of all of these recommendations. in fact kind of put it off saying i'm going to talk to a whole bunch of other people. advisory panels don't have a great track record for being embraced by whoever happens to

be in office or the congress. the president has already said you all had said this needs to be under civilian control, not military control. he's always said that's a nonstarter. it's going to be under military contr control. your reaction to that? >> well, so we did make a recommendation that they should split cyber command which is an army military command from foreign intelligence at the nsa and to open up the idea to civilian control. and i hope and believe over time that is something we'll move towards. having an active military operation and have the intelligence in the same place is not the way the military usually works. and i think reassuring people this is a civilian led process is something we recommend. but the president, you know, he's been commander in chief for five years. he's also been a constitutional law professor. i think he understands the different things here very well. i think they're doing a serious process to look at us, look at what we did, take it very seriously. we know from the meetings, we were in the room for an hour with the president and his advisers. we met with general alexander

and people all over the government, they're taking it very seriously and it's a moment where change can happen and in congress people have opened up to the possibility of change. and so i think there's going to be a real process to see which things really we should move forward with. >> peter, a member of that advi advisory board that gave the president all those recommendations about what to do about the nsa and its surveillance program. also a professor at georgia tech. thanks for being with us. >> great to be here. thank you. when we return, if you're still looking for a last-minute gift for that political junkie in your life, we have the perfect solution. the authors of the best books from "double down" to "this town" next. andma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

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joining me around the table, dan balls from "the washington post" and author of "collision 2012." mark libowitz of "the new york times" and author of "this town. " mark halpern, senior political analyst and "time" magazine co-author of "double down." and author of breakout, newt gingrich. gentlemen, we invited you on because we thought when people were looking for last minute christmas gifts you got a political junky in the house, go

for it. get all four. that's right, a four pack. ask them to give you a deal. i want to start off because of all the postmortems. the president had the postmortem friday. want to play you something he said in answer to the question has this been the worst year of his presidency. here is part of what he said. >> what i've been focused on each and every day is are we moving the ball in helping the american people, families have more opportunity and have a little more security to feel as if they work hard they can get ahead? >> look at the year ahead for president obama. he said had to be a good year. had to get things done. is that going to happen? can he climb out of this hole? >> it's going to be difficult. he has perhaps one thing going for him which is that the economy is getting better. and if people feel better about the economy, they may feel better about the president.

but he's still got to solve the health care problem. he's still got to find a way to get more things done in congress. and we don't know whether he's got a strategy to do that. >> here are the poll numbers. for right now in december, how is the president handling his job? 41% approve. 56% disapprove. i want to show you the trajectory over the course of the year. that's something that started out at 55% in january. now 41%. what happened? >> mostly health care. but also washington hasn't been working well. also this year we had a lot of dysfunction. the president is in charge of washington. right then, you know, i write about the election, the last election. 2011 was a pretty bad year for the president, too. now they call it the good old days in the white house. that was a bad year. his decision at the end of 2011 was to basically say i'm going to beat up the republican party and mitt romney and get elected. the fever will break and we can work together. i think he faces a real choice. one of the big dilemmas is does

he try to win the midterms by beating up election or does he risk alienating people by going for some big deals? of course he must fix health care in 2014 without a doubt. >> right. how much -- your book, sort of a probably dropped advertisement to washington for some time. just because, you know, because it is a town with peculiar habits. it can be -- it's the insiders versus everybody else. how much of the president's problems that we're talking about now is due to the way this town works? >> i think obviously, i mean, washington is a very, very, very powerful, you know, way to influence people and to change cultures. it's much easier to talk and campaign structure about changing and being hopeful than it is in reality. i think, you know, if you were to distill his political issues, it's obviously with republicans on the hill right now. and there has been really very little common ground and very little work done. >> is there any way to beat this system?

>> oh, sure. look, first of all, presidents can and do recover. ronald reagan -- >> can this one? >> sure. of course he can. any president, it's like a pitcher who is 3-2. the pitcher knows what he's going to throw. he always has a slight advantage. you take up an hour of time. you're in charge. you look presidential. what he needs to do is go to hawaii and stop. and just let the last few years bubble up in his head and try to figure out three or four big things, not small things, how is he going to fix obamacare? who is going to really be the czar who has real power and fixes it? is he or 0 is he not going to reach out to the republicans and actually try to achieve legislative things? and what are the two or three large visionary goals around which the nation, not just democrats, but the nation could rally so he can have a state of the union that has real meaning? if he can solve those three,

he's back in the game by february. >> it's a huge if. we saw a challenge in that news conference. we knew it was coming. it was the are you going to negotiate over the debt ceiling? no. and so you already see the setup for an election year that is starting out pretty much how this year started out. with the added overlay. >> well, i mean, what the speaker said is important. but you go back two years, he had bounced back in the polls after the shellacking in 2010 by early 2011. and then it went south for him. i think the question for him, they know how to work the first 60 days of the year. the question is do they know how to work the rest of the year? >> is the man they saw in the campaign the same guy who is at the press conference friday? >> i think personally he's the same person. i think politically he's a positive way.

i think politically he's the same person in a way that i think held him back which is he is still very opaque. is he a flaming liberal as critics on the right say? is he someone who is more of a post partisan problem solver? and i think the speaker's list of what the president needs to do is so good, he should consider working in the white house for him. the biggest thing to me is he needs about big national goals, not democratic goals. but big nationals. the country has a lot of needs right now. people across the country regardless of party, 60%, 70% agree with. >> as you sort of implied in your first answer, at some level that will put him at odds with his own party. if you go for the let's gather around these goals when his party wants to be hitting the republicans. >> i think in an election year coming up he lay the groundwork a little bit in the press conference. immigration might be the one issue he seems to be moving towards. if not, even if there is not a -- i think there is a national

consensus to some degree, certainly in washington. this is something republicans have shown they're willing to talk about, not willing to deal with. > when we return, our question, can a president with the approval rating of only 41% of the public keep 51% of the senate? ya know, with new fedex one rate

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we are back with our panel. i want to talk about how you think next year will play out you in the senate the and the house. and the first thing i think you have you to look at is max baucus moving over to be the ambassador. he was leaving early.

he was going to quit. but leaving early. does that say anything to you insofar as how worried the administration must be about keeping control of the senate? >> i think the democrats have been tactically brilliant for two elections in a row. they figure out the one or two races they have to win to upset everybody's expectations. this is a brilliant strategic move. they are a very good party tactically. and they know what they have to do to keep the senate. chair of the natural resources committee so they increase their chances in montana. and they increase the chances in louisiana. you'll see six more things. one of the reasons the president is going to take a dive and accept an iranian sanctions bill is because he has too many democrats that will help pass a bill like that. >> the tactical strength of the democrats means i think they keep the senate unless there is a national wave.

if there is a national wave and people are still unhappy with obamacare, i think all the tactics in the world will be overwhelming and they will lose the senate or come close to it. >> i don't disagree with that. obviously the republicans have an opportunity. and because there are so many red states the democrats have to defend, very good opportunity. but in the end the republicans have to defeat a series of incumbents. these are not open seats. that's going to be the challenge. >> mark, i want to switch you really quickly before i turn to 2016, because you wrote an article in -- the cover story of "the new york times" magazine today. on john mccain. so my question to you is how would you describe john mccain 2013? >> john mccain 2013 is the story about the whole of his life and the series of cliches that have grown up around him. once again, john mccain is another crowded aisle which he considers himself right in the middle of the battle for the soul of the republican party, certainly in the senate against

the ted cruzes and mike lees. as a very vocal critic, you know, he seems like he is ever injured by 2008, he's back and deciding whether to run for election again. i think it will be fun to watch. >> he is absolutely fun to watch. i've always thought that john mccain is most comfortable when he's uncomfortable. that that's his, you know, his world, i think, in some ways. is he somebody who will factor into 2016? because in a lot of ways the republicans don't have -- well, in every way republicans don't have someone that's kind of the head of the republican party and won't until there's a nomination. does john mccain or mitt romney factor into the elections or is that a free-for-all?

>> i think my personal bias is we'll it's a free-for-all. nominate a governor. i think they have huge advantages. they're actually doing something, not just talking. i don't think we'll have a nominee until around april. i think we'll coalesce rapidly at that point. we'll have a story to tell. i do think the president has some huge, for all their tactical moves, the democrats have huge strategic structural problems. they're losing ground every week. they're looking at reality and thinking it's not very good. people hire presidents in the end to make things work. if they don't make things work, then this party takes a beating. because in the end their party will go down with them. >> let me go around the table here for the last question. for the three of you, who have you already started to take note who you think you might be following on your top two folks you'll be following into iowa and new hampshire on the republican and democratic side? who do you think will be on the show the most? >> actually governor christie from new jersey.

i think he's on everybody's list. after that, i think you've got a smorgasbord of people we all have to pay attention. i don't think there is any other one other. nobody has defined that space so effectively in 2013 that you have to say this is the one or these are the two people. there are a handful of people that you have to pay attention to. >> i think ted cruz will be interesting. >> ted cruz is interesting and will be interesting. i think that the party will coalesce pretty early around christie type person on maybe in the associated with the establishment. i also think that the right will probably crystallize again up around one or two whether it is cruz or scott walker or whoever. >> i have a lot of interest in people. my big four are governor christie, jeb bush, paul ryan and mike huckaby. i think those are the four most likely ones today factoring in half of them or more may not run. >> jeb bush has always been

interesting to me. just hard to figure if he's got the fire for it. >> whether he thinks it's practical. he is a pretty practical guy. i would add to that john kasich. i would add rick perfecty. he is serious about this. i have am almost no doubt that he wants to run. he's not going to back iowa for fun. you can imagine a perry/christi fight. >> so back this way. do we just say hillary clinton and be done with it on the democratic side? >> i said hillary clinton in 2007 and i was totally wrong. i clung to hillary all the way into april. i felt like an idiot to the end trying to explain -- >> are you still there? >> i want to go back, i am not going to back off. i think hillary is -- if she runs, she is the inevitable nominee. >> i agree. i'm not sure she will run. i think she may decide she doesn't want to spend the rest of her professional life doing this one thing.

>> and losing perhaps. >> perhaps. >> i think -- i mean i think if she runs, she is the front-runner. i think there is early prefatigue setting in. this headache factor where if she starts behaving politically, there is an immediate danger. an antiestablishment candidate can come in and do what obama did four years ago. >> there is probably some question as to whether she hasn't started already. >> i think everybody thinks she has started and she has to say no at this point for people to believe otherwise. but she is, you know, she begins this cycle in even better shape than she began the cycle in which she lost. >> thank you all so much. "their books are "double down" and "collision 2012." a prominent critic of vladimir putin is free after ten years in prison and speaking with our own christian amanpour. our exclusive interview is next.

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an outspoken critic of russia's president vladimir putin is free after a decade in prison. mikhail khodorkovsky, a former oil tycoon and once the richest man in russia was convicted of tax evasion and fraud. he sat down with cnn's christiane amanpour for an exclusive interview. >> reporter: were you worried? in many prisons around the world there's violence between inmates or violence from the wardens to the inmates. you were stabbed with a knife?

>> translator: i was stabbed with a knife once. when i was stabbed with a knife, i was lucky. it just -- he tried to get to my eye but got my nose. as a result, the dentist who was there was somebody who was also a plastic surgeon. and carried out the operation on me which means it was virtually not noticeable. >> reporter: was there a deal for your release? did president putin or his people say on this condition we will release you? were there any conditions laid? >> translator: it rather was the reverse. mr. putin on a number of times publicly said that he was ready

to consider the question of my pardon i pardoning, but i had to say that i was guilty for that. that was an absolutely unacceptable condition for me. >> reporter: so you have not admitted any guilt? >> translator: the achievement this time was that mr. putin did not make any conditions that i had to accept any guilt. >> reporter: do you forgive vla vladimir putin? >> translator: i would say it in a slightly different way. i don't consider this to be rational behavior and something we should not consider to be ration rational issing something i can live with. >> reporter: will you go into politics? what is your plan for the

future? >> translator: i cannot say that i have exactly decided on my plans now, but what i have certainly decided for myself is that i do not want to be a symbol that russia does not remain a political prison, a political prisoner. i want to be a symbol of the efforts of so ciety. can lead to the freedom of political prisoners. >> reporter: we're talking about your family now. that was a huge sacrifice, ten years you didn't see your family grow up. what are your feelings, your reflections on how this cost

your family so dearly? >> translator: that is my huge debt which i cannot give back. >> reporter: it's very emotional. mr. khodorkovsky, thank you for joining me. >> translator: thank you. throughout all these years, mikhail khodorkovsky has gone to liberal martyr of political opposition. he was russia's most famous political prisoner. even though he is out now, he says he will not go into formal politics. he wants to help build russian civil society as you heard. this case has been very closely watched by the united nations and many are saying that vladimir putin release d him at

this time because he wanted to clean up russia's image ahead of the winter olympics in sochi but equally, many are saying, that vladimir putin felt confident enough at home and on the world stage to release the man who had, after all, been his arch political rival at this time. candy? >> thanks, christiane. and thank you all for watching "state of the union. "i'm candy crowley in washington. from all of us merry christmas and happy holidays. "fareed zakaria gps" is next. this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to those of you around the world and in the united states. i'm fareed zakaria. first, a star studded panel to look back at the year and ask what were the smartest moves on the international chess board? the biggest blunders? the most impressive players in 2013? then, the federal reserve signaled this week that america has emerged from its depths.