much. come back. and thank you all for watching "state of the union." i'm candy crawly in washington. head for analysis and extras if you missed any part of today's show find us on itunes. "fareed zakaria gps" is up next for our viewers here in the united states. >> this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we'll start today's show with some big questions. is al qaeda back? is iraq collapsing? we have a very sharp panel to talk about the violence in the middle east and what is fueling it. also, have you made your new year resolutions to stay healthy? then you want to listen to david agus, one of the world's most prominent doctors and medical researchers, who has boiled it down to some simple rules for the new year.

next, everyone is talking about america's decline in the middle east, vis-a-vis china, but a major european intellectual says don't believe any of it. and, another installment of how to ruin your economy in five easy steps. last time venezuela ticked off all the boxes. we found another country that is following the same sad path. finally, from head to toe covering, including the eyes to no covering at all, what is appropriate for the modern muslim woman? i'll share a surprising survey. first, here's my take. here's a startling statistic. more than 8,000 iraqis were killed in violent attacks in 2013. that makes it the second most violent country in the world after its next door neighbor syria. as violence has spread and militants have gained ground in several middle eastern countries people have been wondering how much of this has to do with america, with the obama administration, and its lack of an active intervention in the

region? "the wall street journal" and "commentary" magazine have both argued that the obama administration's decision to withdraw troops from iraq to zero is directly responsible for the renewed violence in that country. they and others have also argued because the obama administration stayed out of syria, things there have spiraled downward. let me suggest that the single greatest burden for the violence intentions across the arab world right now lies with the president, though not president obama. and it lies with an american foreign policy that was not too passive, but rather too active and interventionist in the middle east. the invasion and occupation of iraq triggered what has become a regional religious war in the middle east. let me explain how specifically. from march through june of 2003 in the first months of the occupation of iraq, the bush administration made a series of

catastrophic decisions. it authorized the disbanning of the iraqi army in total and signed on to a policy of debaathification which meant anyone in iraq who had been in the top four levels of the baath party under saddam hussein would be barred from holding any government job. this meant tens of thousands of bureaucrats, school teachers, hundreds of thousands of sold r soldiers, almost all of who were sunni were thrown out of work. angry, disposesed and many armed. this meant the collapse of the iraqi state and of political order, but it also meant the rise of a sectarian struggle that persists to this day. the bush administration went to war in iraq to spread democracy, but, in fact, it spread sectarianism, displacing the sunni elite who had long ruled the country and replacing it with a hardline shia religious set of parties that used their newfound power to repress the

suenies as they had been repressed. prime minister nuri al maliki has been unwilling to share power with the sunnis who comprise about 20% of iraq and that has driven them into opposition, extremism and terrorism. during the surge, he made several promises to change his ways, but over the last few years, he has reneged on every one of them. this sectarian power struggle is the origins of the civil war that has been ongoing in iraq for 11 years. it is the cancer that has spread beyond iraq into other countries from syria to lebanon. the bush administration seemed to have made this massive strategic error almost unthinkingly. there is a report that a few months before the invasion, president bush met with three iraqi exiles and appeared unaware that iraq contained within it sunnis and shias and arab leader confirmed to me in his meetings with the president it was clear that bush did not even understand there was a difference between the two sects. others in the administration

better informed, were convinced that the shia would be pluralless and democrats. those of us who warned of these dangers at the time, were dismissed as pessimists. so if we're trying to understand why we see a sunni/shia battle unfolding across the middle east, keep in mind, that the primary cause is not that the obama administration did not intervene in syria, it is that the bush administration did in iraq. let's get started. >> you've heard my take on what's behind the turmoil in the middle east now let's turn to a panel of experts. rashid khalidi is a professor of modern arab studies at columbia university, author of "brokers of deceit how the u.s. has undermined piece in the middle east" richard haas the president of the council on foreign relations, director of policy planning at the stapts

department in 2001 to 2003 as the iraq war was being planned and for its start. from 2004 to 2007, meghan o'sullivan was deputy national security adviser at the white house for iraq and afghanistan. she's now a professor at the kennedy school at harvard. and peter bergen, of course, is cnn's national security analyst and the director of the national security studies program at the new america foundation. rashid, when you look at all the turmoil brewing in the middle east, what do you see as the cause? >> well, there are many causes, but one cause is that you have some sectarian issues that are working themselves out. another cause is a whole policies that i think erican - exacerbated things. a third cause is american alliances with countries that have their own dogs in some of these fights, saudi arabia, israel, others. each of these i think exacerbate asset of problems. >> how do you see them? >> a big part comes from within the middle east itself.

these are societies that have never really dealt successfully with modernenity. people confuse democracy and ma jor tarism. there's not a sense of minority rights or places in these societies. so all sorts arrive between governments and individuals. those issues have never been sorted out. it's always the least successful part of the world. in many ways i agree, foreign policy by removing sectors of authority in many cases unattractive but centers of authority and not doing things needed to put something better or at least ep during in its place. we saw assad must go, put pressure on him but virtually nothing happens to see he goes much less to replace limb with something better. gadhafi must go. no boots on the ground. i'm not saying we should have done boots on the ground but before the united states starts advocating or pushing for regime change be it iraq, libya or syria, we need to be sure we have something we think that's better to go in its place and we

are prepared to do the expensive process of putting there. if not, we have better start thinking twice before we make regime change the default option for american foreign policy. >> it seems to me, meghan, what richard is describing, you know, is that there was a settled order in the middle east, may have been an unjust one, and in many of those cases the shia were persecuted and one of the things that iraq unlocked was this, you know, what vally calls the revivalal of the shia. i remember reading his book and in it he said all the wars of the middle east are now going to be wars within islam on the sectarian lines and it turned out to be quite -- >> i think vali was right on that point. not only shia majorities coming to power but we really saw kind of the up ending of the whole orders in the middle east. we're still seeing that play out. where you have minority vee geems governing majority regimes. >> like assad. >> some ways syria is the exact

mirror opposite of iraq where you had a sunni minority governing a shia majority. i agree there's been an up ended but it's too easy to think that calm stability which we fondly look back on in some cases, would have persisted in the absence of what happened over the last decade. as both our guests here have already intimated, sectarianism didn't come about after 2003 and the removal of saddam. certainly as someone who spent the better part of two years in iraq, i'll be the first to admit there were things we did that inadvertently really did increase sectarianism, but i would say that nothing has happened from that point to where we are today, was inevitab inevitable. >> peter, what do you think? >> clearly prime minister maliki has added to the kind of tensions in iraq by, you know, excluding sunni officials and, of course then you have al qaeda coming in now taking parts of

fallujah. one of the reasons it's not an inevitable situation is we might see sunni tribes in fallujah rising up against al qaeda again. you might see as we've seen some of the other syrian rebel groups attack al qaeda groups in syria and so, you know, they -- encoded in their dna, they seem to make the same set of mistakes, try to impose taliban rule on the population that doesn't go down well and people rise up against them or wait to be liberated by some outside force. >> you talk about the mistakes that may have been made inadvaerntsly but i know you also feel one mistake the obama administration made in iraq was going down to zero. do you really think that 5,000 american troops would have been able to materially affect -- what appears to have happened, my sense, the sheer majority simply have not shared power with the sunni minority which has made them more extreme and resort to brutal terrorism, would 5,000 american troops have

changed that? >> certainly i think it's too simplistic to say had the obama administration left a resill dual force in iraq, 5,000 or 10,000, that things would be dramatically different today. i would say there are two ways in which the obama administration might have had a different policy that could have materially affected the outcome. the first is, if they had left a residual force it would have been able to train, continue to work with the iraqi security forces, which have just shown themselves not to be up to combatting the al qaeda infill trants from the syrian border. secondly, this is the part that most people really underestimate is the fact that the u.s. presence was somewhat of a corrective compass on iraqi politics. for the last since 2003, iraqi politics were a competition between the traditional arab political culture and the new institutions that iraqis and americans were trying to bring in. and the fact -- >> the fact that we supported maliki who has turned out to be a hardlined shia thug.

we supported him even though he didn't win the last election with the majority. >> but after we removed the troops, he actually -- the rest of the iraqi population really looked at this and said, well, america isn't really there to buttress these new institutions against the resurgent culture and maliki took that as a signal that he actually could have his way and there wouldn't be as much of a pushback on him. what we see really happening in the last week is the fact that al qaeda has learned to be very good at exploiting social and political tensions in iraq and you see these two things coming together in the real and very serious problems that have manifested themselves in al anbar. >> when we come back, we're going to talk about what the obama administration could do to respond to all this regional stuff and, of course, talk a little bit about bob gates memoirs, though none of us have read. almost twice as likely to lose your supporting teeth? try poligrip for partials. poligrip helps minimize stress

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read. so, sure, make me the grunt. 'cause i'll be using those points to help me get to a beach in miami. and allllllll the big shots will be stuck here at the cube farm. the citi thankyou preferred card. now earn 2x the points on dining out and entertainment, with no annual fee.to apply, go to citi.com/thankyoucards and we are back with rashid khalidi, richard haas, meghan o'sullivan and peter bergen talking about the middle east. rashid, when we talk about all this turmoil going on in the middle east and almost everywhere it seems to have taken on a sectarian quality, sect against sect, you know,

this brings this old topic which is, are these ancient hatreds or are they modern politicians who are exploiting these divides? the shia/sunni divide goes back to the 7th century. is that what is at the root here? >> no. very simply no. you had people converting from shia to sunni, in iraq in the early 20th century. intermarriage all over iraq, all over lebanon. i challenge anybody to find an instance from the 18th to the beginning of the 20th century where sectarianism is the primary divide in any one of these societies where sunnis and shias live together. >> what turns it on? >> one of the things that turns it on is the creation of sectarian structures by the colonial powers, the french in particular in lebanon and in syria and the british in iraq, played a sectarian game. we then came in with our p in my view, somewhat limited understanding of these things and in iraq, dismantled the awful structure that the baath had created but we also

dismantled a state that had been built up since times, and that is to my way of thinking one of the serious problems that we're facing all over this region, in libya i'm afraid increasingly in syria and certainly in iraq. >> when one looks at this from an american foreign policy point of view, what is also striking is if our real enemy are the sunni extremist militant/al qaeda, their biggest enemy is also iran. so we in a very odd way are, you know -- we have the same enemy as iran but we also -- iran is also our enemy so how do we make sense of this. >> one of the rules of the middle east is the enemy of the enemy can still be your enemy. so, you know, simply because you have common enemies doesn't mean you necessarily align. i think now, though, look we are where we are in the middle east we're still in the early phase of what could be a generation long struggle. it it's hard for me to exaggerate how pessimistic i am about it. i think we have to basically

acknowledge we can't remake these societies any time soon or quickly. we're going to have to do some counter terrorism, things ourselves, find limited partners with governments where we can, tribesmen in some cases where we can. the good news is we're a little bit less dependent on the region in terms of energy. we've built a little bit of our cushion. but for the next phase of history, the -- we've entered essential i a post-american era where our ability to be the dominate -- someone should write a book about that. it's true. it's not going to be good for the people in the region, it's not going to be good for ourselves, it's not going to be good for the world because we can't do away with the ability of the middle east, largely for worse, to have real repercussions beyond the geographical confines. >> do you think iraq could unravel? you know, it feels as though what's happening now as richard was saying, it only seems to have a downward trajectory? >> i think that the possibility is real. and we're seeing the potential re-emergens of two very familiar

and ominous patterns and we see them playing out in an bar even over the last week. one is the exclusion of the sunnis from the political process. you can't have a multiethnic, multisectarian society governed by one group and as long as, you know, politics are org fized along those realms. so the second thing that is ominous is really this idea that al qaeda or al qaeda affiliates would have a toe hold, a safe he ven in anbar. that was the beginning of the civil war in iraq in the sense it was from those strongholds that the -- al qaeda in iraq was able to actually execute wide number of attacks on shia civilians. >> so give us, peter, listening to all of this, give us a sense of what is the state of al qaeda, how much should we worry about it? >> well, they control more territory in the middle east than they have in the 25-year history and they're an arab organization, they care about the arab world and -- >> afghanistan was always a

camp. >> yeah, it was a training camp in a sense. that is worse. you know, the counterbalance against that we've seen perhaps a handful of american citizens go to fight in syria. it hasn't attracted a lot of jihadi militants from the united states. it has attracted hundreds over a thousand from europe, european governments are concerned, the british or the scandinavian countries, the french you can drive from paris to damascus. it's been much more attractive than iraq as a jihad. assad is the perfect villain. he's secular, he's an aloe white, inflicting a total yan war on the population. he's been attractive as someone to fight. good news and bad news. one of the reasons the obama administration didn't intervene in syria the two most effective forces were al qaeda and hezbollah fighting each other. why get in that mess? if you look at it from a realist perspective, we may not have much to worry here. if you look at it a global perspective, it's obviously a

very bad development. >> final thought in terms of the length of this. there's going to be a forest fire that just burns and sfwhurns i think if we continue to allow in many cases our allies, countries like saudi arabia which have a sectarian agenda, and our obsession with iran, to dictate or affect policy to the exit tent to which they have, our letting the israelis call the shots sometimes, these things are going to be harmful. the united states has to understand that it has absolutely no dog in a sectarian fight. it helped to create this but it's a problem beyond us. and we cannot control or determine outcomes in this region. i agree with peter, they're potentially very dangerous, not just for the region, for the world. >> final, final thought. bob gates. the man has a reputation for complete discretion and then he writes this memoir that does not seem the sole of discretion. what was your big takeaway. you worked with limb. >> good friend.

he feels more comfortable in the state of washington than in the district of columbia. look, this is someone who has worked for seven or eight presidents and one we've talked about it, and he clearly had some things he felt he needed to say. i think so much of the attention has been on the personal stuff, what he says about this or that figure. i've not had a chance to digest the 600 pages. what bob wanted to write was a book about how washington h changed, the quality of foreign policy has suffered. i hope that doesn't get lost in the near term at the sensational details. >> which of the sensational details surprised you the most? >> why didn't you ask somebody else that question? >> all right. richard haas, trying to preserve his friendship, meghan o'sullivan, rashid khalidi. why some in argentina are proposing they move their capital city away from buenos aires. i will explain. by coal?

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now for our what in the world segment. i was struck by a strange proposal this week, a top argentine leader says his country should move the national capital from buenos aires in the east facing the atlantic to a new city up in the north closer to the pacific. this would be an immense change, akin to brazil moving the capital to brasilia. now i like buenos aires and i

would hate itto see it abandoned but the idea that argentina needs some shaking up is right on. a few weeks ago we ran a report titled "how to ruin your economy, in five easy steps" that showed how a country could turn is tfl into a basket case by bad decisions. the segment was about venezuela, but argentina is a worthy runner-up. it starts out much stronger than venezuela, remember, argentina is part of the g-20, the group of the 20 big economies. the average argentine earns more than the average indian and chinese combined. but all these facts mask a troubling trend. let's see how it fared on our five-point test. first, attacking big business. the argentine government began 2014 by forcing the country's supermarkets to fix prices for 200 products. so basically the price of milk or flour stays the same for the consumer even if demand goes up, inflation rises or the supplier has to pay more for it.

it defies basic economics. step two, the official statistic bureau says prices rise by about 10% annually, but that's a total fabrication. in reality, inflation in argentina runs around 25% a year. a basket of goods that cost $100 in january, would cost $125 in december. argentina's blatant fudging of official data has gotten so bad that the international monetary fund publicly warned buenos aires to start telling the truth or face expulsion. now what does hyper inflation usually do? it hurts your currency. and that's step three. argentines have been rushing to buy u.s. dollars as a safer currency to park their money. in response the government announced limits on the number of dollars you can buy. the result, a rampant black market. while $1 officially buys you 6.6 argentine pesos, you can get almost double that rate on the street, about 10.8 pesos.

the effect a corrupt economy suffering businesses and the loss of foreign investment. argentina ticking off a fourth box from the playbook as well, subsidies. according to the regional news agency argentina's total bill on subsidies on energy like for the total half of 2013 rose by 62% from the previous year. this isn't the only form of government support. according to the world bank, argentina is one of the world's most protectionist countries meaning that it imposes the most restrictions on global trade, shielding its favorite sectors. now that brings us to our final category, becoming a dictatorship. argentina is, of course, a democracy, but president cristina fernandez has displayed worrying symptoms. between her and her late husband, they have ruled argentina for a decade. in recent months cristina fernandez has clamped down on the pedia, floated rumors of amending the constitution, to

run for a third term. she's building a cultive personality. >> ♪ don't cry for me argentina ♪ >> fashioning herself after evita, the widow of the former president, made famous on stage and screen. argentina's attempt to mirror a failed state like venezuela tells a larger story. look at this map of lat were america from a great article in "the wall street journal" this week. on the left in green you have the countries facing the pacific. mexico, peru, chile and colombia among the countries opening up their economies to great success. on the right in red you see the opposite. countries that face the atlantic, brazil, argentina, venezuela, are closing their economies and resorting to populism. the countries in green are projected to grow nearly twice as fast in 2014 as the countries in red. perhaps changing argentina's capital to be closer to the countries in green, closer to

the pacific, is not such a bad idea after all. up next, a conversation with one of the world's top doctors and cancer experts. he has a great list of tips on how to get the new year started right. [ female announcer ] you get sick, you can't breathe through your nose... suddenly you're a mouth breather. a mouth breather! how do you sleep like that? you dry up, your cold feels even worse. well, put on a breathe right strip and shut your mouth. cold medicines open your nose over time, but add a breathe right strip, and pow! it instantly opens your nose up to 38% more so you can breathe and do the one thing you want to do. sleep. add breathe right to your cold medicine. shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right. ayou wouldn't have it she any other way.our toes.

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i'm candy crawly in washington with a check of the headlines. west virginia's water crisis may continue for several more days. officials say tests must be completed to determine if a chemical leak is still contaminating the water in nine of the state's counties.

in the meantime the federal government is shipping in truck loads of bottled water for the 300,000 residents unable to use tap water for washing hand, brushing teeth or bathing. former nba player charles smith is speaking out about the controversial trip he made with dennis rodman to north korea. in an exclusive interview with cnn this morning, smith defended both the visit and rodman. >> what dennis wants is he wants to -- he has a deep desire to do something good in a big way for his family, his kids, and so his kids can be proud of him. i felt for him. hi felt for him on this trip because i saw the pressure mount, i saw him change and it was very difficult keeping him and everyone together. >> smith says he believes the mission of using basketball as a bridge for cultural exchange was

accomplished during his north korea visit. those are your top stories. ""reliable sources" with brian stelter is at the top of the hour. now back to "fareed zakaria gps." the best way to tackle cancer, heart disease, diabetes and all these other diseases that plague the modern world is prevention. so says my next guest who has a list of ways to ward off these dangerous illnesses. perfect for your new year's resolutions. david agus is one of the world's leading cancer specialists, he is the author of a new book "a short guide to a long life." he was steve jobs' doctor, among other things. david joining me. >> thank you so much. >> what struck me about this is you really feel strongly about this whole idea that if you just take some simple preventative tasks, you can reduce the possibility of many of these very bad diseases, heart attacks, even cancer, so give us

like your three or four rules for how to reduce your likelihood of getting cancer and a heart attack. >> first of all, it's not me and my belief. these are the data. all i'm doing is trying to put the data in a format people can understand. >> the data these are double blind studies. you're not taking just one study. >> the real data that needs to become normal behavior. when data hits a critical mass, incontrovertible what the conclusion is we need to act on them as a society. so the first is something very simple. and it's called movement over time. in 1953 in the british transit authority there were 26,000 workers. half were the bus drivers that sat 90% of the day and half the ticket takers that walked up and down the double-decker buss. weighed the same, smoked the same and lived in the same environment, lower heart disease and cancer in the ticket takers. >> the guys walking up and down. >> we've become a society of bus drivers, sitters. the more important you are in the company the closer your parking space is to the office. the richer you are -- >> i know you have these views.

i think to myself, okay, i try to exercise mostly every day, probably 30 or 40 minutes. you say that's not enough. if you're sitting around the rest of the day it's like you're smoking cigarettes. >> sitting for five hours -- >> what are we supposed to do? >> get up every half hour and walk four or five minutes. that's it. your body was designed to move. your lymphatics that control your system has no muscle. the rhythmic contractions of the muscles in your body when you walk make your body work. >> the second preventative strategy is a very simple one. is that 2,000 years ago, hip pot craty said you take the bark of the willow tree, chew it and pain and fever go away. this is a compound if you take it every day over 40 you reduce the death rate of cancer by 30%. it's called a baby aspirin. it blocks inflammation. inflammation is at the root of cancer, heart disease and neuro cognitive decline. dramatic data, we as a society don't act on it. if everybody over the age of 40 took a baby aspirin we've had a

dramatic effect on life expectancy in this country but we don't do anything about it. >> i like stattens also because they have an anti-cancer effect and can delay heart attack and stroke in people with a normal cholesterol. so very important that we think in those terms and that we actually think preventatively there. i say it out of weakness, not strength. you alluded to the fact that i was involved in steve jobs' care. i know that most people with advanced cancer will die of the disease and i have to look someone in the eye a couple times a week and say i have no more drugs for your cancer. i don't want do that anymore. what we have is a list of 65 rules of things to do and mot to do that can prevent disease that are based on data. >> now, so you've -- you say, you know, aspirin, statin, movement, but it's interesting, aspirin and statin are the only as far as i could tell, medicine-like things that you recommend. for the most part you look at this whole industry of vitamins and supplements and you think it's all bows gus?

>> i don't think it's all bogus. i know it's all bogus. the data have shown and the biggest study several weeks ago, the data have shown in 65 separate studies there has yet to ever be a benefit in a normal individual with vitamins or supplements. ever. yet, if a man takes vitamin e, he has a higher rate of prostate cancer. former smokers take beta carotene and vitamin a, significant high rate of lung cancer or death. if a woman takes high dose of vitamin d increased bone fracture rate. significant harm potentially. no benefit yet we spend more -- >> kids shouldn't have the gummy bear vitamins? >> i've never seen a kid with scurvy or rickets. eat real food. it's the key. >> you are against juicing. explain why. this is -- because a lot of people think they're being healthy by having, you know, something in the morning. >> we're a society of shortcuts. get a juice, get all my

vegetables and nutrients. so in 1746 james head of the british royal navy has limes on his ship. you were at sea and they would get scurvy. they won the battle. at the end he said i happened to sell the extracted limes to cure scurvy and didn't work. >> they had been eating limes on the ship but he sells the juice and it doesn't work. >> totally different. as soon as you squeeze it or put it in a blender it degrades to by products. all you're getting is a big bowl of sugar. something with high glycemic index. eat the real food. fruits and vegetables as good as you can get, juicing no benefit at all. just lots of sugar. >> wow. when you talked about inflammation, this is another piece that you focus on a lot, which is if the body gets inflammations, if it gets the flu, this is not just -- even if you get over the flu, this has a

long-term negative effect. >> and again, that's one of these we have to think about in terms of public policy. if you got the flu you would survive most likely, although tens of thousands die. a decade from now because of having the plu and the inflammation your rate of heart disease and cancer are elevated. so we as a society say, you're welcome to get the flu shot or not, you get heart disease and cancer we will pay for it. >> what do you think is -- you -- one of the things we've talked about is, you've said to me that if, you know, you know all these people exposed to asbestos are going to get cancer, we could easily -- if by putting them on a prevention program, we could actually make sure many of them don't develop cancer. have them take aspirin, stattens. why don't we do that? >>. >> i think there's a liability issue here and whether the fukushima in japan, asbestos here in the united states, once you start to say you have been exposed to something that could cause a problem and i may have exposed you you put yourself up for liability. and so we need to change --

>> ironically as a result of that you're not giving people the -- >> the bpen trants of getting cancer with asbestos exposure is 20 or 30%. it's a financial game. have to change that. for the last decade our country has been ability health care finance. all of the talk in washington. we need to change it back to health. >> you were advising the japanese government, including prime minister abe on the fukushima business. what's the lesson you grew? >> we know what happened and we as a society have to learn from it. one of the problems is, we don't know who was exposed and to how much. we don't have a blood test for radiation exposure. so one of the things we have to start to develop is a triage tool. we know dirty bombs will happen in the world. horrible to say, but it will happen. and so we need to learn from every experience we have and get better. >> so when i listen to all these rules, 60 something, the thing i think to myself is, how many of these do you actually follow? >> well, listen, i do as much as

i can. the key is moderation. i'm in charge of my health, making the conscious decision of what i want to do. i really believe health will change from each ofs us, the ground up, not the top down. we're in charge of ourselves. >> the key is, do it now, do it regularly, don't wait for something -- >> no question about it. we're reactive field medicine. i want people to think about tomorrow, not just today. >> david, pleasure to have you on. >> great. thank you, fareed. >> up next the case for being bullish about the united states. my guest is not even an american. he is a well-known european thinker and he says america is going to stay number one for a long time. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ over the pizza place on chestnut street the modest first floor bedroom in tallinn, estonia and the southbound bus barreling down i-95.

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america is in grave decline say the worriers. china on our heels. hardly the first time such concerns have been voiced says my next guest. in 1957, there was the sputnik scare. the doubters were certain the u.s. had lost the space race and thus the entire cold war. in the '60s and '70s, there was vietnam, later in the '70s came the economic malaise of jimmy carter and then, of course, the japanese companies that were buying up new york's rockefeller center and swadss of california. once again, many saw the u.s. as having lost to a rival. none of those came to pass as joseph jaffy points out in his book "the myth of america's decline, politics, economics and a half century of false proof fasies." he's the publisher and editor of the german weekly site and currently a fellow at the hoover institution at stanford. why is he bullish on america?

listen in. >> what to you are the key indicators of its strength and success? you know, americans look at washington and can't imagine success? >> yeah. >> i deliberately did not look at the stuff we do in day-to-day jurnlism, congress, polarization of parties, et cetera. i mean these kind of pathologies are part of daily life in politics in other countries too. what i looked at two kinds of factors. one was possessions, asset in the banks, or nuclear weapons, projection forces, navies, and then you look at these things and you wonder how could anybody talk about china being a great power when you see a u.s. navy which dwarfs the next 14 navies. when you look at projection force s where the united states has 10, 20 times as many bombers and troop transporters, et cetera. that's the cash in the bank. but then i thought, well, what

was more interesting was, to look at drivers of future power like education. 17 out of the top 20 universities are american. and you and i went to two of them, didn't we? >> but a lot of people look at education and they think that below the university level, that's one of our great vulnerabilities. >> guess what? when you look at some of the comparative data, the countries, 30 countries, the united states comes out on top of midfield, ahead of the it apps and french in terms of reading and writing and ararithmetic. this is the human capital of the next jenner in rags is being produced. if you look at r and d spending, research and development in the united states, spends three or four times as much than the chinese. you look at patents, which already shows you how the human capital generated in the universities is, you know, huge gaps. and to me the most important

thing is immigration. the united states is an immigration country, it's going to be the youngest country, and immigrants, it turns out, you know, you are one of them, i'm kind of one of them, do something miraculous for the country. it keeps the country from freezing up. and the japanese and chinese and the russians, haven't even begun to think about immigration. >> as you know, i like your argument, i think a lot of the data is quite -- is striking and powerful. >> and correct. >> and correct. the place that you have gotten a lot of attention, big "wall street journal" article is on this issue of whether china will and there i want to argue with you and tell you why i think you're wrong. >> okay. >> the japanese analogy, which is 1990, the japanese economy stops growing and therefore china will never make it is wrong because japan is one fourth the size of the united states. in order to overtake the u.s.

economy, it would have had to have a per capita income, average income, four times that of an american. china by contrast is three times the size of the united states, four times by many measures, so all it needs is to have a per capita gdp one quarter that of the united states. in other words, the argument is not that china will become an advanced industrial country easily with all the technology that implies. the argument is china can be about as modern an economy as brazil, but because it has 1.2 billion people, once it does that, it becomes the largest economy in the world. >> this is true. however, two points. point number one is that the chinese are following exactly the same growth model, overinvestment, overexporting, under valued currencies, under consumption, that the other tigers and dragons have followed in the '50s and '60s.

if you look at the demographics you get something that is often overlooked in the rest of the world, i call this a curse of 2020. at that point, chinese will be one-fifth of the population, growth population, but one quarter of the over 60 population. so that all these great miracles by ample and cheap labor and strangely enough, even though it's such a huge country, the supply labor is going to come down. by the way, double digit no longer exists, double digit growth in china, so they're now at 7, 7.5, we can say part is cyclical because of the world economy, but there is something structural there which repeats the sort of experience of the tigers and dragons and that's why i'm not sure -- >> i keep pointing out if they get to taiwan's per capita gdp they're 1.5 times the size of

the u.s. economy. >> this is true, but, you know, meanwhile, the u.s., you want to play this game -- >> that's the other part. >> you ask, has a per capita income which is ten times larger than any chinese per capita. >> joe joffe, pleasure to have you on. up next, how should the modern muslim woman dress? i have a surprising survey from muslims themselves. it can help provide the power for all this? natural gas. ♪ more than ever before, america's electricity is generated by it. exxonmobil uses advanced visualization and drilling technologies to produce natural gas... powering our lives... while reducing emissions by up to 60%. energy lives here. ♪ ♪ turn around

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u.s. treasury secretary jack lew toured european capitals this week calling on economies

to do more to boost growth. brings me to my question of the week. what nation joined the eurozone this month, a, lithuania, b, latvia, c, lick ten stein, d luxembourg. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. the book of the week is benjamin barber's "if mayors ruled the world." if you like cities you will love this wide-ranging book that captures the energy, excitement and importance of what is going on in the world's great urban centers. now for the last look. when thinking about women's clothing and muslim countries, fully covered may be the phrase that comes to mind. well, a fascinating new study by the university of michigan asked respondents in seven muslim nations, what style of dress they thought was appropriate for women to wear in public? their answers were not one size fits all. the all covering, recognizable burqa was not popular in any

nation. the niqab was the winner in skaush and was favored slightly in pakistan. on the liberal side of things, almost half the lebanese surveyed said women don't need a head covering at all and a third of the turks polled agreed. the most popular option a tight fitting white hiijab that covers a woman's hair and ears completely but leaves her eye, nose, mouth and cheeks fully showing. that particular style received the most votes in tunisia, egypt, turkey and iraq. this trend might, the study asked the respondents if women should be able to choose whatever style they want, about 50% said yes, in tu nina, turkey, lebanon and even believe it or not saudi arabia. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to the full study. the correct answer to our question is b, latvia. latvia became the 18th nation to adopt the euro on the currency's

15 thsds anniversary this month. if you have any latvian lats convert them soon. the eurozone encompasses now 333 million people. latvia added 2 million to that total. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. roger ailes has been called many things, a genius, political hack, paranoid. president obama once called him the most powerful man in the world. you might call the chairman of fox news nervous. nervous thanks to the brand new book "the loudests voice in the room" how roger built fox news and divided a country. author gabriel sherman is here today for his first in-depth interview. time to look at this week's chris christie's media circus in new jersey and an update on the case of three reporters from al jazeera being imprisoned in egypt. i'm bri