i have a story we do in the "washington post," where his former mentor tom mccain, former governor of new jersey says this may be the most talented -- people are going to ask themselves, do we want all that in the white house? >> and thank you all for co watching "state of the union." if you missed any part of today's show, find us on i-tunes. fareed zakaria gps is next. this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria. we start today's show with some big questions. is al qaeda back? is iraq collapsing? we have a very sharp panel to talk about the violence in the middle east and what is fueling it.

also, have you made your new year resolutions to stay healthy? then you'll want to listen to david amos, who has boiled it down to some simple rules for the new year. and everybody's talking about america's decline, vis-a-vis china. but a major european intellectual says don't believe any of it. and another story on how to ruin your economy in five easy steps. last week venezuela clicked all of the boxes. finally from head to toe covering including the eyes to no covering at all, what is appropriate for the modern muslim woman. i'll share a surprising survey. here's a startling statistic, more than 8,000 iraqis were killed in violent attacks in 2013. that makes it the second most violent country in the world

after its next door neighbor syria. as violence has spread and militants have gained ground in several mideastern countries, people have been wondering, how much does this have to do be -- "the wall street journal" and commentator magazine have both argued that the obama administration's decision to withdraw troops from iraq to zero is directly responsible for the renewed violence in that country. they have also argued that because the obama administration stayed out of syria, things there have spiraled downward. let me suggest that the single greatest burden for the violence and tensions across the arab world right now lies with the president, though not president obama. and it lies with an american foreign policy that was not too passive but rather too active and interventionist in the middle east. the invasion and occupation of iraq triggered what has become a

regional religious war in the middle east. let me explain how specifically, from march through june of 2003, in the first months of the occupation of iraq, the bush administration made a series of catastrophic decisions, it authorized the disbanding of the iraqi army in toto and signed to a policy of de-baathification. would be barred from holding any government job. this meant that tens of thousands of bureaucrats, schoolteachers, hundreds of thousands of soldiers, almost all of them were sunni were thrown out of work. angry, dispossessed and many of them armed. this meant the collapse of the iraqi state and of political order, but it also meant the rise of a sectarian struggle that persists to this day. the bush administration went to war in iraq to spread democracy, but in fact it spread

sectarianism, december placing the sunni elite who had long ruled the country and replacing it with a hard line shiia religious set of parties that used their newfound power to repress the sunnis just as hay had been repressed. primary nuri al mall lackaki of has led them -- during the surge, he made several promises to change hiss ways, but over the last few years, he has reneged on every one of them. this sectarian power struggle is the origins of the civil war that has been ongoing in iraq for 11 years. it is the cancer that has spread beyond iraq into other countries from syria to lebanon. the bush administration seemed to have made this massive strategic error almost unthinkingly, there is a report that a few months before the invasion, president bush met with three iraqi exiles and

appeared unaware that iraq contained within it, sunnis and shiites, it was clear that bush did not even understand there was a difference between the two sects. others in the administration better informed were kwingsed that the shiia would be democrats. those of us who warned of these dangers at the time were dismissed as pessimists, keep in mind that the primary cause is not that the obama administration did not intervene in syria, it is that the bush administration did in iraq. let's get started. >> you have heard my take on what's behind the summer oil in the middle east. now let's turn to a panel of experts to get their take.

richard haass is the commissioner on foreign relations. from 2004 to 2007, megan o. sullivan was deply national security advisor. and peter bergen is cnn's national security analyst and the director of the securities program at the new america foundation. when you look at all this turmoil brewing in the middle east, what do you see as the cause? >> there are many causes, but one cause is that you have some sectarian issues that are working themselves out. another cause is a whole generation or so of american policies that i think exacerbated things. a third cause is american alliances with countries that

have their own dogs in some of these fights, saudi arabia, israel, others. each of these, i think exacerbates other problems. >> how do you see it, richard? >> part of the cause comes from within the middle east itself, these are societies that have never really dealt successfully with modernity. people confuse democracy and majority terrorism, there's not a real sense of minority rights or places in these societies. so all sorts of divides between governments and individuals. >> so those issues have never been sorted out in the least successful part of the world. american policy has kper baited things by removing centers of authority and not doing things that were needed to put something better or at least enduring in its place. we say assad must go, put pressure on him, gadhafi must

go, but then no boots on the ground, i'm not saying we should have done boots on the ground, but before the united states starts advocating or pushing for regime change, whether it be iraq, libya or syria, we should have something better that's going to go in its place and we have to do the expeszive process of putting it in there. if not, we need to think carefully before we make regime change part of our foreign policy. >> there was a settlement order in the middle east, maybe an unjust one, but in many of those cases the shiia were persecuted. i remember reading his book, which i think was published in the middle of the iraq war, and in it he said all of the wars in the middle east are now going to be wars within islam along these sectarian lines. >> what we saw is not shy -- you

have minority regimes governing majority regimes. in some ways syria is the exact mirror operation in iraq. i agree that there's been an upending, but i think it's too easy to think that that calm stability which we fondly look back on in some cases would have persisted in the absence of what happened over the last decade, as both our guests here have already intimated, sectarianism didn't come out in 2003 and the removal of saddam. certainly as someone who's spent the best part of two years in iraq there,'s things we did that really did increase sectarianism. but nothing that has happened from that point to where we are today was inevitable. >> peter what do you think?

>> prime minister maliki has added to the kind of tensions in iraq by excluding sunni officials and of course then you have al qaeda coming in now taking parts of falluja, one of the reasons is it's not an inevitable situation, is you might see sunni tribes rising up, or other southeastern rebel groups attack al qaeda in sere yachlt encoded in that dna, they tend to make the same set of mistakes is to try to impose taliban style rule. >> you talked about the mistakes that may have been made inadvertent inadvertently, but i know you feel that one mistake the obama made in iraq was going down to zero. do you really think that 5,000 american troops -- what appears to have happened, my sense is

the shiia majority simply have not shared power with the sunni minority which has radicalized them and made themry sort to a kind of a brutal terrorism? >> i think it's too simplistic to say had the obama administration left a residual force in iraq, 5,000, or 10,000 or whatever that the outcome would be dramatically different today. there are two ways which the obama administration could have had a policy that could have materially affected the outcome. first is if they had left a residual force, they would have continued to train and work with the iraqi security forces which has just shown themselves not to be up to combatting the al qaeda infiltrate fors from the syrian border. and the second is the fact that the u.s. presence was somewhat of a corrective compass on iraqi politics. since 2003, iraqi politics were

a competition between the traditional arab political culture and the new institutions that iraqis and americans were trying to bring n. >> and the fact that we supported maliki who has turned out to be a hard line -- who we supported in the election. >> after we removed the troops, we actually, a and the rest of the iraqi population really looked at this and said america isn't really there to buttress these new institutions and maliki took that as a signal that he actually could have his way and there wouldn't be as much of a push back on him. and what we see happening in the last week is that al qaeda has learned to be very good at exploiting social and political tensions in iraq and you see these two things coming together in the real and very serious problems that have manifested themselves in al anbar. >> when we come back, we'll talk about what the obama administration could do to

respond to all this regional stuff and we're going to talk a little bit about bob gates' memoirs, which none of us have read. when you have diabetes like i do, getting the right nutrition isn't always easy. first, i want a way to help minimize my blood sugar spikes. then, a way to support heart health. ♪ and let's not forget immune support. ♪ but now i have new glucerna advance with three benefits in one. including carbsteady ultra to help minimize blood sugar spikes. it's the best from glucerna. [ male announcer ] new glucerna advance.

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gets to the root of dandruff and hydrates the scalp. selsun blue itchy dry scalp. and we are back with rasheed, richard and peter bergen talking about the middle east. when we talk about all of this going on in the middle east, and it seems to have taken on a sectarian quality, sect against sect. >> this is an old topic which are these ancient hatreds are are these modern -- the shiia divide goes back to the seventh sen industry s that what's at the root here. >> very simply, no. you have people -- iraqi in the early 20th century. you have intermarriage all over iraq and all over -- i challenge anybody to find an instance from the 18th to the 20th century

where sectarian is the primary divide where any of these -- one of the things that turns it on is the creation of sectarian structures by colonial powers, the french in particular in lebanon and the british in iraq played a sectarian game. we then came in with a somewhat limited understanding of these things and in iraq, dismachbdled the -- we also dismantled the state that had been built up since auto man times. that was the serious problem that we're facing all over the region. >> when one looks at this from an american foreign policy point of view, what is also striking is if our real enemy are the sunni extremists militants/al qaeda, their biggest enemy is also iran. so we in a very odd way, we have the same enemy as iran, but of

course iran is also our enemy so how do we make sense of this? >> one of the rules of the middle east, is that the enemy of your enemy can still be your enemy. we proved that during the iran-iraq war, simply buzz you do have common enemies doesn't mean you're aligned. we are where we are in the middle east and we're i'm afraid still in the early phase of what could be a generations long struggle. it's hard for me to exaggerate how pessimistic i am about it. we're going to have to do some counter terrorism things ourselves, find limited partners, the good news is we're a little bit less dependent on the region in terms of energy, we have built a little bit of our cushion, but for the next phase of history, we have entered a post american era. it's true and it's not going to

be good, it's not going to be good for people in the region, it's not going to be good for -- largely for worse, to have real repercussions beyond the geographical confines. >> do you think iraq could unravel? because it feels as though what's happening now, as richard was saying, it only feels like it has a downward trajectory. >> we're seeing the potential reemergence of two very familiar and ominous patterns, and we see them playing out in an mar, even over the last week, one is the exclusion of the sunnis from the political process, you can't have a multiethnic, a multisectarian society governed by one group. and as long as politics are organized around those realms. the second thing that is ominous is that really the al qaeda would have a toe hold, a safe

haven in anbar. that was the beginning of the civil war in iraq, in a sense from those strong holds al qaeda in iraq was able to actually execute a wide number of attacks on shiia civilians. >> give us, peter, listening to all of this, give us a sense of what is the state of al qaeda, how much should we worry about it? >> they're an arab organization, they care about the arab world. >> for them it was object a camp. >> it was a training camp. to counter balance against that, we have seen perhaps a handful of american citizens go to fight in syria. it hasn't attracted militants from the united states, it has attracted over 1,000 from europe, the european governments, the scandinavian countries, it's been incredibly attractive, much more attractive in iraq because of jihad. he's a heretic, because he's

an -- he's a totalitarian dear, he's been very attractive, as someone to go and fight. so there's good news and there's bad news, one of the reasons that the obama administration didn't intervene in syria is that the two effective forces in al qaeda are to follow. so why get in that mess? so if you look at it from a strictly realist perspective, we may not have much to worry about here. >> final thought, is this going to be a forest fire that burns and burns? >> if we continue to allow in many cases our allies, countries like saudi arabia which has a sectarian agenda to dictate policy or affect policy to the extend they have, are letting the israelis call the shots sometimes. the united states has to understand that it has absolutely no dog in a sectarian fight. it helps to create this, but

it's a problem that's beyond us. you cannot control or determine outcomes from this region. i agree with peter, they're potentially very dangerous. not just for the region, but for the world. >> final, time thought. bob gates, the man had a reputation for complete discretion and then he write this is memoir that does not seem the soul of discretion, what was your big take away? you've worked with him? >> a good friend, he certainly feels more comfortable in the state of washington than he does in the district of columbia. this is someone who has worked for seven or eight presidents and he clearly had some things he needed to say. so much attention has been on the personal stuff, what he says about this or that figure. i have not had a chance to digest the 600 pages, but what bill really wanted was -- how the quality of foreign policy is suffering as a result and i hope that doesn't get lost, if you will, in the near term look at

the sensational details. >> which of the sensational details surprised you the most? >> why don't you ask somebody else that question? >> richard haass trying to preserve his friendship, thank you. up next, why some in argentina are proposing they move their capital city away from buenos aires.

now for our "what in the world" segment. i was touched by a strange proposal this week. a top argentine leader says his country should move the national capital from buenos aires in the east facing the atlantic to a new city up in the north closer to the pacific. this will be an imminence change, akin to brazil moving the capital to brazila. i like buenos aires and would hate to see it abandoned. we had a report titled how to ruin your economy. we showed how a country can turn itself into a basket case by a string of bad decisions. argentina is part of the g-20,

the group of the biggest economies. all these facts mask a troubling trend. let's see how it fared on our five point test. first attacking big business. the argentine government began 2014 by forcing the country's supermarkets to fix prices for 200 products. so basically the price of milk or flour stays the same for the consumer. its defies basic economics. step two, the official statistics bureau says prices rise by about 10% annually, but that's a total fabrication, in reality, inflation in argentina runs about 25% a year. a basket of goods that cost $100 in january would cost $125 in december. argenti argentina's blatant fudging with the economy has gotten so bad that the international monetary

fund warned buenos aires to tell the truth or face expulsion. step three, argentines have been rushing to buy u.s. dollars as a safer currency to park their money. in response, the government announced a limit on the number of dollars you can buy. the result are rampant black market. while one dollar buys you 6.6 argentine pesos, you can get double that right on the street. about 10.8 pesos, the effect is a corrupt economy and -- argentina is ticking off a fourth box from the venezuelan playbook as well. subsidies, argentina's total bill on subsidies on energy for the first half of 2013 rose by 62% from the previous year. this isn't the only form of government support. according to the war bank, argentina is one of the world's most protectionist countries

meaning it imposes the most restrictions on global trade, shielding its favorite sectors. that brings us to our final category, becomes a dictatorship. argentina is a democracy, was the president has displayed worrying symptoms, the ker ch nevers have now ruled argentina for decades, floated rumors of amending the constitution to run for a third term. she's building a cult personality. fashioning herself after yvette that, the populous widow made famous on stage and screen. argentina's attempt to mirror -- tells a larger story, look at this map of -- on the left in green, you have the countries that are facing the pacific.

mexico, peru, chile and columbia are among the countries opening up their economies to great success, in the right on in the red, you see countries facing the atlantic, brazil, arrest jean -- the country's in green are projected to grow nearly twice as fast in 2014 as the countries in red. perhaps changing argentina's capital to be closer to the countries in green, closer to the pacific is not such a bad idea after all. up next, a conversation with one of the world's top doctors and cancer experts. he has a great list of tips on how to get the new year started right.

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the white house says it will stop getting rid of it uranium stockpiles on -- it's part of an interim deal with six world leaders and in return, some sanctions against iran will be eased. and one of the former nba players who went to korea with dennis rodman is speaking exclusive to cnn about his trip and whether there was a payday. fareed zakaria's gps continues right now.

the best way to tackle cancer, heart disease, diabetes and all these other diseases that plague the modern world is prevention, so says my next guest who has a list of ways to ward on his dangerous illnesses. perfect for your new year's resolutions. david agis is the author of a new book "a short guide to a long life." he was steve job's doctor among other things. what struck me about this is you really feel strongly about the whole idea that if you just take some simple preventative tests, you can reduce the possibility of many of these very bad diseases, heart attacks, even cancer, so give us your three or four rules for how to reduce your likelihood of getting cancer and a heart attack. >> it's not me and my belief, it's the data.

all i'm trying to do is put the data in a format that people can understand. >> you're just not taking one study? >> this is real data that hit a critical mass that it's incontrovertible what the conclusion is, we need to act on them as a society. the first is something very simple. and it's called movement over time. in 1953, the british transit authority had 26,000 workers, half of those bus drivers sat half of the -- they weighed the same, smoked the same and lived in the same environment. we have become a society of bus drivers, of sitters. >> so i know you have these views so i say to myself, i try to exercise mostly every day, probably about 30 or 40 minutes, you say that's not enough, if you're sitting around the

resting of the day, it's like your smoking cigarettes? >> exactly. >> what are you supposed to do? >> you're going to get up every half hour and walk four or five minutes. your emphatic system has no muscle. when you wake, they actually make your body work. the second preventative strategy is a very simple one. 2,000 years ago hip pock tees said you take the bark of the willow and your -- if you take it over the age of 40, you reduce the death rate by 37%. it's called a baby aspirin. inflammation is at the root of -- dramatic data, we as a society don't act on it. if everybody over the age of 40 took a baby aspirin, it would have a dramatic affect on life expeck tansi in this country. >> you like statins?

>> they have and anity cancer effect. even people with normal cholesterol. so very important that we think in those terms and that we actually think preventatively there, i say it out of weakness, not strength. most people with advanced cancer will die of the disease and i have to look at someone two or three times a week and say i don't have anymore more medicine for your disease. >> you say aspirin, statin, movement, but it's interesting, aspirin and statin are the only medicine things you look at this whole world of vitamins and supplements and you say it's all bogus. >> the data have shown in 65

separate studies there has yet to be a benefit in a normal individual with vitamins or supplements. a man takes vitamin e, he has a higher rate of prostate cancer. if a woman takes vitamin d, increased bone fracture rate. so i look at data, significant harm potentially, no benefit clearly. >> kids shouldn't have these gum my bear vitamins. i have never seen a kid with scurvy or -- eat real food, it's the key. >> you also are against juicing. explain why. this is fascinating because a lot of people are thinking they're being very healthy by having something in the morning. >> we're a society of shortcuts. i'm going to get all my vitamins and nutrients, in 1746, james lindh is head of the royal navy.

they won the battle of tra fall gar, and at the end of it, he said i happened to sell the extract lime to cure scurvy and it didn't work. he sells the juice of the limes and it doesn't work. >> it's totally different. as soon as you squeeze it or put it in a blender it degrades. basically what you're getting is a big bolus of sugar. eat the fruits and vegetables, as good as you can get. juicing, no benefits at all, just lots of sugar. >> when you talked about inflammation, i know this is another key piece that you focus on a lot. which is if the body gets inflammation, if it gets the flu, even if you get over the flu, this has a long-term negative effect? >> and again, that's one of these we have to think in terms of public policy. if you got the flu and you

skipped the flu shot--decades are now, because of having the flu and inflammation, your rate of cancer and heart disease are elevated. you're welcome to get the flu shot or not, if you get heart disease or cancer, we'll pay for it. >> you have said to me, you know all these people who were exposed to asbestos will get cancer. we could easily by putting them on a prevention program, we could actually make sure many of them don't develop cancer, have them take aspirin, have them take statins. >> there's a liability here. once you start to say you have been exposed to something that could cause a problem and i may have exposed you you put yourself up for liability. >> you're not actually giving people the preventive. >> but the penetrates of getting cancer because of asbestos

exposure. it's a financial game and we got to change that. we need to change and for the last decade, our country has been about health care finance. all of the talk in washington, we need to change it back to health. >> you were advising the japanese government including prime minister abe on the fukushima incident. >> the lesson is we know what happened. we as a society have to learn from it. one of the problems we don't know who was exposed and to how much. we don't have a blood test for radiation exposure. we know dirty bombs will happen in the world. horrible to say, but it will happen. so we need to learn from every experience we have and get better. >> so listen to all these rules and we have got how many of them, 60 or something up there. but i think to myself, how many of these do you actually follow? >> i do as muches i can, and the key is moderation. the good is i'm in charge of my health. i'm making the conscious decision of what i want to do. i really believe helpful change

for each of us. we're in charge of yourselves. >> and the key is do it now, do it regularly, don't wait for something -- >> we're a reactive field of medicine. but i want people to think about tomorrow, not just today. >> david, pleasure to have you on. >> up next, the case for being bullish about the united states. my guest is not even an american, he is a well known european thinker and he says america is going to stay number one for a long time. be right back.

america is in grave decline say the warriors, china is on your heels. it's hardly the first time such concerns have been voiced says my next guest. in 1957, there was a sputnik scare. in the 60s and 70s, there was vietnam, later in the 70s came the economic malaise of jimmy carter and then of course the japanese companies that were buying up new york's rockefeller center. but none of those came to pass. as joseph jaffe points out in his new book "the myth of america's decline." politics, economics and a half century of false prophesies. jaffe is the publisher and editor of the german weekly paper.

so why is he so bullish on america? listen in. what to you are the key indicators of its strength and success. because americans look at washington and they can't quite imagine success. >> they did not look at the kind of stuff we do in day to day journalism, which is the blockade of congress, the polarization of parties. these kind of mythologies are part of daily life in politics and other countries too. but i looked at two kinds of factors, one was possessions, asset in the bank. nuclear weapons, projection forces, navys. and then you look at these things and you wonder how can anybody talk about china being a great power, when you see a u.s. navy which dwarfs the next 14 navys, when you look at projection forces for the united states has ten, 20 times as many

bombers and troop transports et cetera. that's the kind of cash in the bank. but then i thought what was more interesting was to look at drivers of future power. like education. 17 out of the top 20 universities are american and you and i went to two of them, didn't we? >> but a lot of people look at that's one of our great vulnerabilities. >> guess what, when you look at comparative data, you see -- united states comes out top of the field in terms of reading and writing, arithmetic. this is where the human capital of the next generation is being produced. if you look at r&d spending, research and development, the united states spends three or four times as much than the chinese. if you look at patents which shows you how human capital

generated in the universities, huge gaps. to me the most important thing is immigration. immigration country, youngest country. immigrants turns out, and you know, you are one of them, i'm kind of one of them, do something miraculous from the country. it keeps the country from freezing up. the japanese and chinese and russians haven't even begun to think about immigration. >> i like your argument. i think a lot of the data is quite -- striking and powerful. >> and correct. >> and correct. the place you've gotten a lot of attention, big "wall street journal" article, on this issue whether china will overtake the united states. there i want to argue with you and tell you why. i think the japanese analogy, 1990 the japanese analogy stops

growing, therefore china will never make it is wrong. japan is one-fourth the size of the united states. in order to overtake the u.s. economy, it wouldn't have had to have a per capita income. average four times that of an american. china by contrast is three times the size -- four times by many measures. all it needs is a per capita gdp one-quarter that of the united states. in other words, the argument is not that china will become an advanced industrial company easily with all the technology that that implies, the argument is china can be about as modern an economy as brazil. but because it has 1.2 billion people, once it does that, it becomes the largest economy in the world. >> that's true. however, two points. point number one, the chinese are following exactly the same growth model, overinvestment,

overexporting, undervalued currencies that other tigers and dragons followed in the '50s and '60s. if you look at the demographics, you get something that is often overlooked in the rest of the world. i call this the curse of 2020. at that point, chinese will be one-fifth of the population, but one quarter of the over 60 population so that all these great miracles fed by ample and cheap labor. strangely enough even though it's a huge country the supply of labor will come down. by the way, double digit no longer exists. double digit growth in china. they are now -- there is something structural that repeats the experience of the tigers and dragons. that's why i'm not sure --

>> i keep pointing out if they get to japan's gdp, they are one and a half the size of the u.s. economy. >> that's true. if you want to play this game, but the u.s. has a per capita in come 10 times larger than any chinese per capita. >> pleasure to have you on. up next, how shoot modern muslim woman dress? i have a surprising survey from muslims themselves. humans -- we are beautifully imperfect creatures, living in an imperfect world. that's why liberty mutual insurance has your back, offering exclusive products like optional better car replacement, where, if your car is totaled, we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. call... and ask an insurance expert about all our benefits today,

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u.s. treasury secretary jack lou called on economies. lithuania, latvia, lichtenstein, luxembourg. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week benjamin barber's "if mayors ruled the world." if you like cities, you'll love wide ranging book that captures energy, excitement and importance of what is going on in the world's great urban centers. now for the last look. when thinking about women's clothing in muslim countries, fully covered may be the phrase that comes to mind. a fascinating new study by the university of michigan asked respondents in seven muslim nations what style of dress they thought was appropriate for women to wear in public. their answers were not one size fits all.

the all covering recognizable burqa was not popular in any nation. the second most conservative option was the winner in saudi arabia and favored slightly in pakistan. on the liberal side of things half the lebanese surveyed said women don't need a head covering at all. a third of the turks agreed. the most popular option, a tight fitting white hijab that covers a woman's hair and ears completely but leaves eyes, nose, mouth and cheeks fully showing. that particular style got the most votes in tunisia, egypt, turkey, iraq. if that doesn't surprise you, this might. the study asked respondents if women should be able to choose whatever style they want. about 50% said yes in tunisia, turkey, lebanon and even, believe it or not, saudi arabia. go to cnn.com/fareed for the

complete study. the answer is latvia. it become the 18th nation to adopt euro on the anniversary this monday. if you have any latvian lates convert soon. euro encompasses 330 million people. latvia added 2 million to that total. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. hello, everyone. i'm fredricka whitfield. these are the top stories. an anxious waiting game for millions of americans whose unemployment benefits have run out. now pinning hopes on congress on the eve of a critical vote. outrage and concern over water com tam nation crisis. hundreds still can't use tap water for drinking, washing or cooking. possible health threats and economic impact of the chemical leak straight ahead. former nba star dennis