hopefully one day she will. you know, the dean boner -- dons not want anyone to know their name, even trying to pay for the $9 omelet on the way out. they just got three huge checks, they refused. >> make some great memories today. >> "inside politics with john king" starts now. a stunning about face on immigration. speaker john boehner a week ago. >> so i think it's time to deal with it. >> and now. >> it's going to be difficult to move any immigration legislation. >> inside the gop's sudden change in strategy. plus, air force one is all researched up, but with almost nowhere to go. vulnerable democrats ever telling president obama stay away. but bill clinton is in demand and hillary, too, and this guy sure sounds ready for 2014 and beyond. >> there's no obvious reason for me why i think i should not run.

>> plus, john kerry says no to a presidential campaign see quill. >> i'm out of politics. >> romney also says no. >> i have had my turn. >> so is there any reason hillary clinton can't say yes? "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. welcome to "inside politics. "i'm john king. thanks for sharing your sunday morning with us. it would be unfair to say house speaker john boehner was for immigration reform before he was against it, unfair because technically he's still for it but he's suddenly not willing to risk fighting for it. that is huge political news because it was just a week ago speaker boehner suggested the immigration debate was so important and so overdo he was willing to risk election year republican unity to push for major changes, and just a week ago, remember, president obama reached out to republicans opening the door to a major compromise. but now the speaker says, never mind, and despite that olive branch from the white house, the speaker says president obama is to blame. so why the abrupt about face and

what does it tell us about the republican party's 2014 strategy? here to share their reporting an insights, malina henderson of "the washington post," jonathan martin of the "new york times," robert costa of "the washington post" and amy walter of the cook political report. jay leno is in the news so let me borrow a famous question. what was the speaker thinking? >> he's torn on immigration. he wants to do something. he met with the retired archbishop cardinal from yesterday and boehner's roman catholic faith is driving him toward a consensus, but the right flank of his conference is saying no thanks, they don't want to do anything this year. boehner's comments last week really signaled he's going to probably listen to the right and just not do much. >> but he blames the president. the president was trying to give him a little slack. weigh talked about this last week. the right never wanted to do it. why did the speaker say i'm willing to give this a chance and then pull back? what changed his mind? >> look at what else is on the calendar. they have to get through basically a clean debt ceiling increase. when i say clean, i mean

basically just raise the debt ceiling once again. for boehner to do that and to get this through, he's got to show some teeth to his conservatives, and i think if you look at that in combination with all of these filing deadlines for primaries that are coming up here in the next two months, i think boehner needs to sort of punt this for a while. look, it may not come back this year, it may come back in a more fod modified fashion but i think this is not the end of immigration reform. >> it's like a zombie. it's not exactly dead but it's not exactly dead. >> how much was the speaker influenced by across the capitol by mitch mcconnell, normally he'd say let's cut the best deal, he made clear, no thank you, not doing this this year. >> if you're the speaker your most important thing is getting through a debt ceiling. your party has been basically down on the tarmac -- what was -- >> on the mat. >> on the mat. you have been digging, digging,

a hole. they finally hit rock bottom. they're coming back. passed a budget, passed a farm bill. they are ready and able to go and do well in 2014 election. they just don't want to see any messups. >> if the strategy is avoid the land mines, don't get caught up in a civil war in immigration, don't do anything crazy on the debt ceiling, does that mean nothing else big gets done this year and it's just off to the election? >> well, that's quite possibly so. republicans are looking at a really great map for taking over the senate come 2014. a lot of these races are going through southern states, not a lot of latinos in those states. you do look at a state like georgia, right, and there's about 10% latinos, 30% african-american. do you imagine that democrats might be able to use immigration in 2014 to rally their base, but when republicans look at it, this is something that would obviously alienate their base and they're looking at 2014. they could come back in 2014,

have both houses and be able to do immigration reform in the way they want to. >> but speaker boehner i think recognizes the importance of this for republicans for the long term. i talked to a top boehner person who said this is tapping the brakes. this is not killing the thing entirely. and even if they can't get the entire thick done this year, they at least want to try to take the first step to address immigration in 2014. >> if his public argument is our guys don't trust president obama and they don't because they mass a health care law and he makes administrative changes, some of that is true, some is exaggerated, will the trust get greater between now and election day? >> what boehner was trying to do was water down expectations, and he know he wants to do something on immigration, but if it's not going to be comprehensive, what is it? maybe it's a republican version of the dream act. some piecemeal reforms. they will trickle that out -- >> and obama will sign it, by the way. >> the other thing is there's not a ton of urgency to get this done. there's sort of political urgency, right, but this terms of people just rank and file

people clamoring for immigration reform, it just isn't there. >> so short-term versus long-term, the republicans take the short-term for now. i want to bring something up. we read a lot of polls. if you cover politics for living, you read a lot of polls. some are helpful, some are useless. we had a poll about the republican class of 2016. for the most part you say it's way too early for this poll. mike huckabee on top. bush is a famous name. chris christie is dropping because of bragegate. paul ryan was the vice presidential candidate. look at the guy at number two, rand paul. you see the rest of the senate class, rubio, cruz, rick perry, stormer senator rick santorum. why is rand paul, why is rand paul number two? he's working the hardest. he's getting out to all these states but why? >> i don't think it's because of his organization. he has a big organization but i think he's taking the hammer right now to secretary clinton. he's out there throwing red meat to conservatives who want to hear it on the clintons. a lot of other republicans,

they're being tough on conservative issues, talking about conservative principles but they're not taking on the clintons in the same way. >> his last name is paul, too. he inharnts the support his father has from a hard core libertarian base and those folks are going to be for him, too, and i think that's what you see in the polling is a combination of his hard work, you mentioned, going after the clintons and just the fact his last name in a poll speaks to sort of the tea party libertarian. >> to robert's point, you want you to listen to rand paul. he's done this before but he's clearly doubling down. this is rand paul on c span going after a guy named bill clinton because of his behavior with monica lewinsky. >> so i really think that anybody who wants to take money from bill clinton or have a fund-raiser has a lot of explaining to do. in fact, i think they should give the money back. if they want to take a position on women's rights, by all means do, but you can't do it and take it from a guy who was using his position of authority to take advantage of young women in the workplace. >> is he sending a message to

the republican base that i'm willing to take on the clintons or is he sending a message to hillary that if you run we're going to throw all this stuff all over again. >> it's not as if she doesn't know that's going to happen. big surprise, i can't believe they'd do that. but he also is sending a signal to his party saying, you know what? we've tried this war on women thing, here are words we're not going to use, libido, we're not going to use that. we're not going to talk about rape, not talk about any of those things. let's just go right know where we know we can -- >> short-term solution. >> the long term is still an issue. this is where rand paul really does have a long-term strategy. he's done more in reaching out to minority communities than any other republican. he's actually putting his money where his mouth is. the other piece of i'm rand paul, i'm not really happy about you pointing this poll out because anytime somebody has gone up in your polling or has conceded the front-runner, they get whacked down. >> law of political gravity. >> i do think one of the things with this whole argument around bill clinton, hillary clinton has in some ways been at her most sympathetic and most

popular when you raise the issue of her marital problems with bill clinton. so it's not exactly a smart strategy in terms of for the long run. >> but he's trying to do something quite interesting. sometimes you have the social conservative candidate for the tax candidate. he's trying to do a little bit of tea party, a little bit of libertarian. he leaves on a country club in kentucky. he's not exactly unfamiliar with the republican establishment. he's trying to take that patchwork republican party. can he keep it together or does that splinter? >> i think that's been his strategy from the beginning. he knows he's boxed in because of his father's reputation. he's trying to broaden his appeal. he was at the reaganly bear talking about how republicans have to appeal to people who come post in their backyards. he's trying to say to the republican establishment, he went to romney's donor retreat last year, i can the establishment candidate, too. >> most people at those rallies, a lot of times at those ron paul rallie rallies, very diverse, hippies, young folks. >> i hope you're not right about

that. you mentioned it in a poll like the "sports illustrated" cover, everybody stand by. vulnerable senate democrats have a blunt message for president obama, two words. stay away. bill clinton on the other hand is more welcome on the campaign trail. what about hillary clinton? solving the puzzle of her 2014 role. that's next. if yand you're talking toevere rheuyour rheumatologistike me, about trying or adding a biologic. this is humira, adalimumab. this is humira working to help relieve my pain.

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welcome back. this week's "inside politics puzzle" is a travel guide. the president met with senate democrats and said i get it, i'm not that popular. if i hurt new your race, i won't come. these are 11 states the republicans have targeted in 2014. the republicans need 6 to take back the majority. should the president be so unwelcome? a little history. if you look at these states, you can understand why they don't

want him in alaska, montana, the dakotas, down here in louisiana and arkansas. if it's red, that means the president lost it twice. if it's blue, that means obama actually won it twice. in 2008 and 2012. so let's see about iowa, michigan, new hampshire, north carolina. he won once, he lost once. you understand, look, that was then, this is now. the president's approval ratings are down. interesting question of whether the democrats might regret it in some of these states. if not the president, bill is available. hillary might be available. joe biden says he's raring to go in 2014. are they the answer? let's look at just one question. what about secretary clinton? remember, in 2008 look at the states. these are the 11 states again. if it's light blue, hillary clinton carried it in the 2008 primaries. a darker blue, that's the president. so essentially a split decision. president obama carried 6 of those 11 states, hillary clinton carried 5. the big question now is, is she welcome on the campaign trail? will she have a big role? let's put that question, amy, bill clinton's welcome. is hillary clinton an asset or a liability in a year where her former boss, her most recent

boss, barack obama, is considered by many democrats to be toxic? >> so can i turn that question around a little bit? >> be my guest. >> which is does hillary clinton want to go on the trail in 2014? and so i don't know if you're an individual candidate, you're very concerned about being tied to washington and you want an outsider coming and campaigning for you so hillary clinton could bring some liabilities but she still has a great deal of star power. she can brick you some money for sure. but if you're hillary clinton do you want to get out there on the campaign trail? you've been this post partisan candidate. you have approval ratings higher than you have seen them, well, ever. do you want to really get in a food fight in 2014 and be seen as a partisan at a time when, you know, you want to try to hold onto that post partisan -- >> if you want to lead the part in 2016, don't you have to have the courage to help it in a tough 2014? >> absolutely. i think now that she's gone to a private citizen, she'll be helpful. she helped out terry mcauliffe --

>> in virginia. >> the new governor of virginia. >> family relations. >> i know but how can she do that and then the following year i don't day politics. it's not an option. bill clinton came out on friday he's going down to kentucky, running against mcconnell down there. it's impossible to think about a midterm election that does not feature the clintons. go back and look at every midterm election, every election since bill clinton left office, he's constantly on the campaign trail. this is what he does. >> what was popular in 2006 was obama more than bill clinton or hillary clinton. >> that was then, this is now. one of the reasons he's democrats even in those states i showed that you obama carried twice, democrats are worried. he appeared with the candidate in michigan. gary peters with the prose of the united states. there's a reason most of the states are saying no. americans for prosperity have gotten out early with ads. >> kay hagan, she just doesn't get it. >> tell kay hagan obama care

hurts north carolina. >> senator beg itch didn't listen. how can i trust him again? she sided with barack obama. >> if i had to vote for the bill again, i would vote for it tomorrow. >> this has been effective owe not only in tying the candidates to the president and keeping obamacare in the news but a different strategy. a lot of republican groups went after republicans last time around. most of them for now are trying to keep it focused on democrats. >> very much so. you see republicans right now, they really think obamacare is still a winner. i think in 2014 this can still maybe get them the senate seats they need. i think a lot of democrats' hesitancy with the white house, it's not a personal thing with the president. they just know the polling is bad on the affordable care act. >> and they haven't really figured owe ult ed out a way to obamacare. we had the cbo numbers last week. 2.5 million lost wokkers erwor economy. i think what's most striking about those ads and i think they're very, very effective is who they're focusing on.

they're focusing on blue collar white women and those are the voters that are sometimes swing voters, but those are the voters that are going to be really important. >> if you support the president's health care plan, there's a lot in the cbo report you sesay, look, we're raising the percentage of people who have health care. it's not the job killer republicans had but you can't say that in louisiana or arkansas -- >> it's such a nuanced thing, the cbo report. >> if obamacare is so bad for him and bad for candidates, what about hillary clinton? there's a new book coming out about hillary clinton, a review in "the washington post" on friday says this of secretary clinton. she defended the president's health plan against doubting cabinet colleagues, a moment the authors describe at pivotal if underappreciated. in 1994 it was hillary care that doomed the democrats. they think it's obamacare this time around. if she campaigns, they marry her to health care? >> of course. i think that's why we're going to see hillary clinton, she's going to have to have a presence because she's likely running in

2016, but she has the greatest helper in american politics, bill clinton, ready to do her bidding on the campaign trail if she just wants to sit back and do private events, meet with donors and prepare for 2016. >> do you anger the base if you do that? we don't know who will challenge her. someone will challenge her. if you look at the polls that someone is tilting at windmills. but somebody will, and does she raise grievances if she's not out there? >> i don't think so she does. i mean, because i think one of the things that the republicans want to make 2014 as much about obamacare as they want to make it about hillary clinton. i mean, and you saw as soon as those words came out about the book, they were sending out messages about that. so the more she gets out there, the more she's going to be a target. i think she has to figure out does she want to be out there to defend her name such as it is but i don't think the base is going to be clamoring for her -- >> i was in arkansas in december, john, talked to mark pryor, the senator who is up for a tough election this year. he said that he had called hillary because he heard she was really inquisitive about his

race. he called her up and had a long chat with her about the race. she asked all the right questions about what's happening in arkansas politics from her day there. she's really engaged in politics. she knows that pryor is up in arkansas and. >> i think arkansas is a little different because it's arkansas. >> the vice president gets overlooked sometimes but he had a conversation with kate bolduan and he says this. >> there may be reasons i don't run but there's no obvious reason for me why i think i should not run. >> can i have a taime table? >> probably realistically a year this summer. >> a year this summer, so i assume that means he know what is hillary is doing by then. look, i have the greatest admiration for joe biden as the happy warrior but he says he can't think of any reasons not to run. there's his age, the hit we don't elect sitting vice presidents and there's this

thing if hillary does run, we saw this movie in 2008, didn't we? >> it's exactly right. i think you can't count out joe biden as a contender because hillary clinton, there is still i think a chance, a slim chance, that she does not run and who is going to schltep into the void. if you're the incumbent vice president of a two-term relatively popular with democrats administration, you have a space to enter. >> sure. >> absolutely. and i think it's more than just a narrow chance that she doesn't run. you talk to democrats in that orbit, they're not saying there's a 90% chance she runs. they're on the 50%, 60% chance she runs. so he is, i think, you're right, he's well positioned. he's the sitting vice president of the nights. when has a sitting vice president not been considered the front-runner do. >> reporter: dick cheney took himself out. part of joe biden's calculation, because cheney knew he wasn't going to run, his leverage -- >> it makes the obama presidency relevant if you have this sitting vice president -- >> don't count the scrappy kid from scranton out is what i'm hearing. up next, tomorrow's news today as we ask our reporters to share

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time now to get you ahead of the curve with the bill political stories just around the corner. we empty our notebooks at the end of the show. >> there was a story i had yesterday in the paper about pat roberts, the long time kansas senator who does not have a home of his own in kansas anymore, and the key watching this race going forward because pat roberts still has a huge money advantage over his tea party primary challenger. what's going to be important to watch is will some of these

outside groups engage with wolf, the challenger, and help him out against pat roberts. otherwise, it will still be tough for the challenger because roberts has a ton of money on hand. >> there's no place like home. nia. >> a lot of eyes on a woman named lucy flores who is an attorney out in nevada. you heard harry reid drop her name. he's thinking perhaps he can coax her into the lieutenant governor's race. if she wins that race, then it makes it less likely for brian sandoval who is the governor of nevada to get into a race in 2016 and challenge harry reid. a lot of eyes on lucy flores -- >> harry reid playing chess. >> harry is always behind the scene. >> what a surprise. >> going back to immigration, you know, there's now this conventional wisdom that maybe it's better for republicans to punt this issue in 2014. why bring up the intraparty fight, but talking to some republicans who are engaged on

this issue, want to see immigration reform pass, especially for their candidates in 2016, they say why is it going to be any easier in 2015? 2015 comes and you have a lot of people running for president sitting in the senate. they could barely get something through the senate the first time around. you think when they're up for 2016 they're going to want to pass something called comprehensive immigration reform? i don't think so. >> fun, fun, fun. over the past few years republicans have endured a lot of fiscal drama when it comes to the debt ceiling. early this week all my sources tell me house republicans are moving toward a clean debt limit extension without strings attached. that's a strange development. tea party favorites are telling john boehner we're okay with a clean extension. >> that would be avoiding a land mine. look for money to go into florida 2013. it's a republican held seat and the republicans are suddenly nervous in that race. they don't want to lose the rev ren dem. the election is march 11th but a key point, absentee ballots went

out this week. 60% of the voters vote that way. that's it for "inside politics." thanks for sharing your sunday morning. we'll see you soon. "state of the union" with candy crowley starts right now. safety, skiing, and politics. today, games on in russia. >> within the boundaries of sochi, within the so-called ring of steel, there's a lot of security. >> on the ground in sochi, the former secretary of homeland security and head of the u.s. delegation to the winter olympics, janet napolitano, joins us. then -- >> i think it was very rushed is what you get the impression of, that everything, you know, isn't quite done. they could use a little more time. >> is it safe enough? is it nice enough? is it spectacular enough? vladimir putin's moment. we talk to a