southern california. the state got a lot of rain, which it desperately needed because of the drought, but the rain also triggered very dangerous mud slides. early this morning helicopter rescue crews pulled four hikers to safety after they were trapped in a raging creek. more than 100 million people in the path of a storm. how bad is it going to get? do you need to worry? we've got that just ahead. "fareed zakaria: gps" starts right now. this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live today from new york. dramatic developments, first up ukraine calls russia's actions a declaration of war. secretary of state john kerry calls it an invasion and occupation. just how bad is it and what can

be done? we will cover all the angles. vitali klitschko, leader e of the ukrainian revolution, on his country's response to russian aggression. madeleine albright, the former secretary of state, brzezinski zbigniew, the former national security adviser on what the united states can and should do. then, is vladimir putin really the bad guy in all of this? i will introduce you to a very prominent expert who says niet. and foreign policy at the oscars, one of the films up for best documentary tells the story of egypt's revolution brilliantly. i will speak with the director of the movie "the square." but first, here's my take. in a strange act of historical coincidence it was 60 years ago this week that soviet leader nikita handed the premier over to the ukraine.

it might not have seen a big deal in those days. everyone was part of one, big, unhappy soviet union. but that has created today's geopolitical crisis. russia has made its move. it has essentially detached crimea from the ukraine government's control. what remains unclear what vladimir putin wants to do with it, incorporate it into russia, use it as leverage to negotiate a deal with kiev, both? in any event, washington's response should be clear and forceful. russia has violated all kinds of laws and norms, including most crucially a treaty that it signed with ukraine guaranteeing that country's borders in return for which ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. for washington, for americans, really for people around the world, it would be a terrible mess dent to allow issues like these to be resolved not by negotiations or diplomacy but by force.

if russia can detach parts of neighboring countries with impunity, won't other great powers like china, decide that they, too, can act in similar ways. so what can be done? for starters, president obama should cancel entirely his attendance at the g-8 summit to be held in sochi in june. he should try to persuade the other major powers to follow suit. russia's membership in the g-8 should be suspended. the g-8 was created to recognize post-soviet russia was behaving like an honorable member of the international community, not a rogue state. if the behavior has changed, russia's status should also change. militarily there is less than can be done. russia's defense budget is about 18 times that of ukraine, but nato should restart talks on providing assurances to countries like poland including perhaps building the missile defense system that was abandoned. in economic terms, washington and the eu should consider sanctions that would be

effective. ones targeted specifically at individuals who could be held responsible for acts of aggression against ukraine. washington cannot stop vladimir putin as he creates facts on the ground in crimea. but step back and consider what a strategic disaster this is for him. ukraine has slipped out of russia's orbit and most of the population there is going to be hostile toward russia for generations. countries like poland that had eased up relations with moscow will view it with great suspicion. all european countries will put their relations with russia under review. even china will surely oppose the brazen violation of national sovereignty, something beijing has is always concerned about. within russia people have seen that putin is terrified of a democracy movement and will brutally oppose it, not really the image he wants to present. putin gets crimea, which by the way, is only 60% russian, parts

will be deeply hosle iluding the population of crimea's tatar who are muslim and getting radicalized. it's in the northern caucasus where russia has been battling a ferocious mus political -- muslim insurgency. even as he lines up one more piece or half piece on his chessboard, vladimir putin will find that the price he has paid for it is quite high. let's get started. now for the latest on the ground in the region. we'll take you in a moment to the russian capital moscow, ukrainian capital kiev but go to the contested territory crimea. cnn's diana magnet is at the city of simferopol where people are saying something remarkable.

diana, tell us. >> reporter: well, fareed, i'm in the main square at simferopl, the capital of crimea, and this may certainly be staged for the various cameras that have been here. people have been chanting "putin thank you russia putin" waving russian flags. the flags that usually are around the square, crimeaen, russia and ukraine, all the ukrainian ones have been taken away. these people are saying we are not represented by the new government. we fear they will take away our rights and when you say that the ukrainian government has promised not to do away with the russian language, and is looking to try to incorporate delicate supports from the east from crimea, they haven't heard anything about it. so it almost seems as though this by the way is a communist

song, there have been convoys of cars waving the russian flag coming up and down in front of the cameras all day. it would almost seem as though propaganda has been fed to them which they are putting out for us. this is a culturally, ethnically diverse region. what i hear in the square is not necessarily what i hear when you talk to those who are far more worried about the military presence on the streets. >> let us go to moscow where the parliament rubber stamped russia's request to send in troops citing a threat to russian lives. what is putin's next move going to be in your view? >> well, we only have putin's words and the language of the kremlin to make analysis from. at the moment putin is not speaking publicly but when he spoke with president obama he spoke of russia's right to defend its natural interests. russian citizens and speaking people, not just in crimea, but

in the east of ukraine itself. when he went to parliament and sought permission for the use of force he talked about using force on the territory of ukraine, again, not confined to crimea itself. it would seem at the very least it is opening the possibility of a further military incursion into that eastern region of ukraine itself when it comes to crimea, it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine a scenario where vladimir putin is prepared to allow that to fall under the direct control of kiev once again and ultimately risk losing the naval base which is strategically important to russia to protect power into the black sea and mediterranean and beyond. which leaves only a few options. you touched on the possibility of using this as leverage for a negotiated settlement but at the moment the acting ukrainian president can't get vladimir putin on the phone. there is then the possibility of stoking and enforcing separatism or the ultimate conclusion which is annexation into the russian federation. >> fascinating. joining me now, madeleine albright who is, of course,

secretary of state in the clinton administration and zbigniew brzezinski who was carter's national security adviser. welcome back, both. zbigniew, let me start with you, this is about as tense a situation. what can washington or the world do to stop putin from doing what phil black was suggesting, which is moving even further and actually moving russian troops into ukraine proper? >> that prospect in my view is by far the more serious one because in effect, putin has claimed the right to intervene in ukraine itself, to intervene militarily by force, and the crimean scenario may be a preview of what he's planning, namely in some of the eastern regions of ukraine, which are inhabited by russian speaking ukrainians, some of whom are favorable to moscow, riots could be staged, could be provoked by

moscow, and then russian troops would enter. this is what we have to deter, prevent, discourage. we have to take a stand publicly offering russia some sort of participation in an overall international effort to help stabilize the ukrainian economy and so forth, but privately, at the same time, we have to warn russia very explicitly as to what might be the negative consequences of russia in effect attacking ukraine and these consequences have to be very serious because otherwise some years from now, we will be regretting failure to act the way we regretted the failure to act after munich in 1938 and 1939 and we know what followed. >> madeleine albright, you have often said munich was the powerful analogy for you in your life. what can washington do? as i say, russia's military is much, much larger than ukraine's. the united states and the west are not going to send troops.

how do we deter? how do we do what zbigniew was talking about? >> i think we do have quite a few tools. the problem is, we -- how to use them all simultaneously. i think it is important to try to deescalate this. this is a very, very dangerous situation. the pictures you showed and the reporting shows how this is on a razor's edge and i think that it could turn into a civil war. there are a lot of arms floating around ukraine. people are, in fact, really not just demonstrating, but getting angrier and angrier. i think what is important, though, is to make absolutely clear europe's and america's support for the people of ukraine, their possibility of having a functioning government, helping them with economic assistance. the problem of munich was that the united states was not paying attention and the agreements were made over the head of the czechoslovaks, they were not

part of anything, and what has to happen here there has to be respect for the views of the ukrainians. we have to be supportive of them and there are ways that we can ramp up the pressure in terms of, as you suggested, fareed, in terms of the g-8, the g-20, looking at what can be done with nato and basically looking at all the tools that we have in our toolbox. >> zbigniew, what could we have done with nato? ukraine is a member of something called the partnership for peace, kind of an associate member of nato. should we in some way try to engage in consultations with ukraine to provide some assurances about its defense and to suggest in a sense that nato might militarily help ukraine were something to happen? >> first of all, i think we have to grant recognition to the new government in ukraine which expresses the will of the people. i think a number of countries are ready to do that and the united states should be among them.

this is now the legitimate government of ukraine and it has to be recognized as such. and russian interference in ukrainen affairs would be a hostile act. secondly and informally i think we should be putting some nato plans into operation regarding the deployment of forces in central europe, making certain that we're in a position to respond if the war should spread, and we should be prepared to indicate to russia we're not going to be totally passive, but we would prefer a peaceful accommodation involving russia as well. leave that option open. and then, of course, in addition to that, nato itself, can invite the russians who are occasionally participating in some committee discussions in nato, to discuss making sure that the situation doesn't get out of hand. in other words, on several levels, complicate moscow's planning, give them an option, and very quietly, make them aware of the massive

consequences, very negative for russia, that would follow the outbreak. >> madeleine, one of the things russians often say is that the west set the precedent by detaching kosovo from serbia, that at the end of the day, when u.s. secretary of state, you decided you were going to allow the kosovars who wanted to be free and live in independent state, to go there own way and we provided military support. can they not say what they're doing in crimea is the same? >> it's a completely different situation. absolutely not. yugoslavia fell apart. as a result of the actions of milosevic. it had been going on for a number of years with slovenia, bosnia, herzegovina, and there is no question that that is something that came internally. the russians never understood what was going in kosovo and did everything they could to block the fact that people there wanted to have their own

independence. so i think it's a completely different situation and an excuse. i think what is important is to realize that the russians, something that you said, in many ways might be buying something that will cause them incredible internal problems with a variety of ethnic groups that are in crimea and are in effect some of the issues in dagestan and various places. i think that putin may have deeply miscalculated and we have to make sure that it is clear to him that he miscalculated. what is interesting is i think we were on our way to try to figure out how to make russia a responsible member of the international community. what has happened, if this goes forward, is they will become we will make sure that they becomes isolated and that they really are not part of solutions and so i do think that we have many options here, preferably it would be to develop some of the things that zbigniew said in

terms of trying to work with them, giving every kind of support we possibly can to the ukrainians. one of the tragedies here is this action in crimea has diverted attention from what is the major issue in ukraine, which is their economic, very disastrous situation and they need a lot of help. >> zbigniew, one final thought, i've only got 30 seconds, do you think that the chinese, who would be crucial here, will view this in the way that i suggested, that is, as a violation of another country's sovereignty or are they at the end of the day back russia or abstain? >> i think they certainly should have that view. i think it's in their interests to have that view. but to have them have that interest, we have to act in a way that is clear, consistent and decisive and i think we have to make it very clear there is a

legitimate government in power in kiev and any action attempting to detach parts of ukraine from ukraine using russian military force is an attack on peace in an era in which there is a sense that we have a collective responsibility for security and maintenance of peace. >> thank you to the two of you, this is absolutely important and urgent. thank you. stay with us. we have a very different perspective coming up next. a man who says we have it all wrong on putin. we're demonizing him. a distinguished scholar coming up. ♪and boots and pants and boots and pants♪ ♪and boots and pants... voice-enabled bill pay. just a tap away on the geico app. ♪ huh, 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. yup, everybody knows that. well, did you know that some owls aren't that wise. don't forget about i'm having brunch with meagan tomorrow. who? seriously, you met her like three times. who? geico.

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imperial glory. this week's cover story of "the nation" magazine makes the claim the america media has distorted putin's image. how and why? i brought the author on today, steven cohen who teaches at new york university and princeton. you say this guy is not the rank imperialist and dictator we see him as. explain why he isn't those things. >> nor is he as secretary albright and professor brzezinski suggested hitler with their references to munich. putin is not a thug. he's not a neo soviet imperialist trying to recreate the soviet union. he's not even anti-american. what he is, is intensely historically pro-russian. he's been in power nearly 14 years. and his mission, as he sees it, and many russians see it, is to restore russia from the disaster of 1991, collapse of the russian state, remember that was the

second time in the 20th century that the russian state had collapsed, first time in 1919, so to recreate stability, prosperity, greatness, whatever that means in russia, at home, and in the process, restore russia's traditional national security on its borders, that means ukraine as well. he did not create this ukrainian crisis. it was imposed on him and he had no choice but to react. that's where we stand today. >> you say he's actually one of the most liberal rulers of russia in its history. >> i wouldn't put it that way. i mean i wouldn't use the word liberal. what i would say if you view putin in the context of the last 400 years of russian history, with the exception of gorbachev, and possibly the first post-soviet president yeltsin,

there's an argument there, putin is the least authoritarian, let's call him the most soft authoritarian of russian rulers in centuries. by the way, so far as it matters, because jews and the status of jews in russia is often a barometer of how russian rulership treats its society, putin has been better for russian jews than any leader in russian history and if you want evidence of that, just ask israel. >> what about this -- the new imperialism? why should it be taken as a natural given that russia would send troops into parts of georgia and to parts of ukraine every time it feels its interests are adversely effective. it does seem neo imperialist, no? >> we could argue this for hours but we could do the analogy. what if suddenly russian power

showed up in canada and mexico and provinces of canada and mexico said they were going to join putin's euro asian economic union and the military block. the president would have to act as forcefully as putin has. >> i don't think if canada were to say it wanted to start a trade relationship with russia i do not believe the american president would send troops into canada. >> if it was a trade relationship that excluded preferential trade with the united states, it would certainly create a crisis. let's go back to ukraine. brzezinski and albright said, for example, that the current government in kiev is legitimate. putin says it's not legitimate. i would argue that if you had on your show a panel of constitutional and international lawyers, they would be hard put to explain how a government which a week ago overthrew the entire ukrainian constitutional

order, deposed the elected president and has been passing anti-russian legislation in kiev and which is at least partially controlled by very extremist forces in the streets, is legitimate. that would be hard to explain. >> stephen cohen, that is fascinating point of view. lots more ahead. we are going to go to kiev and talk to people there to get their views on the subject. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] a car that is able to see to calculate, to think -- and can respond to what it encounters. even if that means completely stopping itself. it's the stuff of science fiction... ...minus the fiction. the 2014 e-class. the most intelligent e-class ever.

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okay. we've heard from our reporters in moscow and from crimea. we were going to talk to vitali klitschko. he couldn't make it. to get a feel of the mood in kiev i have ian lee standing by there. ian, there has been much talk out of kiev about actually preparing for war. is that what it feels like there? >> reporter: it definitely has that sort of feel here, fareed, especially in independence square behind me all day. they're talking about the

situation in the crimea and the russians moving in and also talking about those military bases in the crimea that have been blockaded by russian forces unwilling to give up, surrender to the russians there. these are people who are still mourning, mind you, after the bloody weeks that they had during the unrest here in this city. also this is a new government with less than a week old so there's a lot of scrambling there too trying to get a path forward on what to deal with, not only russia, but also the rest of the needs of the country, fareed. >> do you get the sense that there are people there who are -- who feel otherwise? because kiev is overwhelmingly pro-western, but, you know, it's a mixed country. do you see any evidence of that division within -- in kiev behind you? >> reporter: no, not really. you don't see any of that

division and you're right, this is very much a mixed country. yesterday we were watching a lot of pro-russia demonstrators in the east in the cities like kharkov, the second largest city, and it's interesting to point out today we're watching in some of these cities, we're watching pro-european demonstrators out there in the streets today. it's really hard to get a feel for it, yes, while the east has russian leanings, how many of those people now, since the russians have moved into the crimea, are backing the russians and how much are feeling a bit of nationalism, a bit of patriotic fever, toward ukraine during this crisis, fareed. >> ian lee, thank you very much. fascinating. when we come back we have been able to find vitali klitschko and we will have him when we come back.

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imagine being in ukraine's position now. is there anything it can do? my next guest says yes, vitali klitschko is not one to back down from a fight.

he is the former world champion boxer. he's also one of the leaders of the revolution that toppled the ukrainian government just one week ago. now he's ready to fight the russians. vitali klitschko, welcome and let me ask you simply, do you believe that there is a likelihood of war between russia and ukraine? >> right now it's very difficult situation for ukraine. russian expansion into crimea bring a lot of bad feeling for all ukrainians as everybody has said. right now main point we have to unite all together, it's united all country and the situation right now about independence of ukraine because it's not a question about crimea, some part of -- part of east ukraine cities to bring russian flags and put flags on government

building. and meetings going on right now -- meetings starting right now in some cities. very important point right now, keep in the control whole situation for ukrainians. because i am more than sure it's the scenario, create not from ukraine outside of ukraine. >> you believe that most of what is happening in ukraine is being created from outside, which means by russia. do you think that ukraine, the ukrainian government needs military help from the west, from nato? do you call on the west to intervene to help ukraine militarily?

>> we call right now to support because it's a negotiation in budapest between united states, great britain and russia, regarding independence ukraine and the ukraine leave all nuclear weapons from the country and right now united states and great britain have to be guaranteed of -- for ukraine as independent country. >> you want the united states -- you want united states and britain to guarantee the independence of ukraine, including crimea? does that mean you want america to help in getting russian forces out of crimea? >> yes, of course. it's the main point right now the russians have to take away the russian forces from crimea. it's the main point. crimea, ukraine territory.

we talk independence of ukraine, it's all military forces have to remove from ukrainian territory. it's crystal clear. >> you know what, a lot of russians say that crimea is really originally part of russia and that it would be okay if crimea were to go to russia. do you believe that would be okay? would it be acceptable to the ukrainian people to -- for crimea to become part of russia? >> yeah. it's not acceptable. crimea always was a part of ukraine country and right now russia try to create new territory and it's all what happens right now is crimea create not from ukraine, not in

crimea, it's created outside. >> thank you very much, mr. klitschko. best of luck. lots more ahead. it is oscar night tonight. so we have found a way to get to the movies. the director of "the square" an amazing nominated film about egypt's uprising, the director joins me to talk about her country and, of course, there have some lessons here for ukraine. ♪ ♪ ♪ ben! ♪ [ train whistle blows ] oh, that was close. you ain't lying. let quicken loans help you save your money with a mortgage that's engineered to amaze.

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egypt's revolution has gone from hope to euphoria to utter confusion. but should egyptians despair? not so. that is the message from a new film nominated for best documentary oscar this year. it is called "the square," and it captures in stunning detail the violence twists and turns of that country's revolution. take a look.

[ speaking foreign language ] >> that is from "the square" up for an oscar this year. the director, jehane noujaim, joins me now. so the first, most interesting thing about this movie is that it was made and then remade, right? because you finished the movie about the -- what i suppose what you now call the first egyptian revolution. >> right. >> that was the overthrow of hosni mubarak after his 30 years in office. you were about to -- release it at sundance, it does well, an then there is another egyptian revolution taking place. >> exactly. >> so you go back?

>> yes. we -- it was a very interesting process and i guess this is why, you know, this is about making a film as things are ongoing, right? it's an exciting process but you're constantly reediting. the first time that we were sort of allowed to end the film, was when morsi was elected and this was a story line that went from the bringing down of a president to the election of a new president. but this was the political story line and not necessarily the most interesting story line because as we were on our way to sundance with the finished film all of our characters were back in the streets again saying, this is our first freely elected president, but he's using the tools of democracy to create another dictatorship and we need to hold government accountable. it became a much deeper, more interesting complex story about what it means to be a citizen holding your government accountable. >> what i'm struck by, though, if one were to take a darker interpretation of the film and it may not be what you've intended but like any great piece of art it can be looked that way, it shows you how ambiguous or amorphous this idea of the people is.

because you start the movies and you have these guys, ahmad, this great character, and they're so full of hope, full of the kind of sense of freedom. he talks about this is the first time in 30 years i feel as though my voice can be heard. i feel as though there's a sense of which my dignity is returning. and that's all about getting rid of mubarak and the army. and then flash to the end where you're showing those demonstrations against the elected president, mohammad morsi, they now want the army to come in and essentially stage -- we can call it whatever we want, depose the elected government and have an army takeover. and it's the same feeling of hope and expectation, and so you say to yourself, well, what is it -- what is the will of the people? on one hand it seemed to be for elections, on the other hand it's against an elected president. >> well, i think that what's

happening in egypt is, you know, similar to any movement in the world, the civil rights movement, the fight against apartheid, things take a long time. we're going through many mistakes, and we figured out how to remove leaders. we haven't become so good at figuring out how to elect leaders yet and stick with them. and we'll see where we go in this next phase, but ultimately i feel that people have to get to a point where they realize that we need to move towards pluralism. >> what do you think happens to the characters in your movie who are the muslim brotherhood characters? the thing i'm struck by looking at egypt from afar is, we see all these young liberals, tahrir square, frankly people like you, you grew up in egypt, and there then you look at the polls by pew and places like that. egypt is in man ways the most conservative muslim society in the middle east. so you asked, as pew did, should

the country be governed, 70% say yes, higher than most arab countries. i look at that and say what has happened to that 51% of the country that voted for morsi, believes in this state. other polling data suggests, they are in jail or oppressed. how do young liberals -- young people feel about that? they now have an army regime in place that is suppressing freedom of speech, that is oppressing a large part of the population that voted for the muslim procedure. >> they saw as they went through muslim brokered, suppression of freedom of speech and attack on human rights. >> despair that both sides seem -- you're caught between a rock and a hard place. >> we're stuck between this binary, do we need a religious leadership coming to clean and purify or is it a military man

that uses strength, look to the pharaoh we've had for 5,000 years. i think what this revolution was about was creating a space for the alternative. i think we're still going along that struggle. >> an interesting test for egypted level of openness and political future will be quite simply will they allow this film to be shown officially in egypt? >> definitely. i think that's what's been so fantastic about the oscar no, ma'am nation, about the international attention that the film has received is because it's been on newspapers in cairo. we'll have seen it. people are aware of it. so as ahmed said when we were nominated, this means our story and our voice will never be able to be silent. we're releaseing a film like this that looks at the human beings, personal stories involved in fighting for human rights, social justice and dignity.

look what they are struggling through in a deeply personal way humanizes these people. that's such an important thing for all egyptians to see right now. >> thank you so much. >> thank you. >> up neck, 347,000 mirrors and a clean energy milestone. where is it happening? i'll tell you. (vo) you are a business pro. seeker of the sublime. you can separate runway ridiculousness... from fashion that flies off the shelves.

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this is a victory for the united nations, for all mankind, for the rule of law and for what is right. >> 23 years ago this week president george hotline w. bush declared a cease-fire during the first gulf war. it brings me to my question, how many days were u.s. troops on the ground in iraq before the cease-fire was declared? a, five? b, 25 c, 44 d, 88. stay tuned and we'll tell you the answer. this week's book "the upside of down. while feeling well is the key to success." this is a well written and smart

treaties on why trying lots of things and embracing failure is the key to success. for people, companies, and countries. and now for the last look. take a look at this remarkable development in renewable energy. it is said to be the world's largest solar thermal power plant. 347,000 mirrors covering around 5 1/2 square miles moving with the sun across the sky reflecting solar heat to three towers, each taller than the statue of liberty. the towers have waters filled with water which turns to steam spinning a turbine which then produces electricity. it is a clean tech version of lord of the rings as one reporter put it. what's notable here is this concontraption is not located in china or germany or any other traditional solar powerhouse. the solar electric generating system, as its called, sits in

the mojave desert in california. it's expected to power 140,000 american homes. the economics of the installation have been questioned, but the project capped what many are calling a banner year for american solar power 2013. the u.s. had more solar power than germany, the world leader. this is for the first time in 14 years according to gtm research. more solar capacity installed in the last 18 months in america, according to the industry, than in the previous 30 years. of course american solar power has a long way to go. it provides less than 1% of the nation's electricity according to the government. the correct answer to our question is, a, five days. although the airstrikes have been going on for weeks, the allied ground assault began february 24th, 1991. the cease-fire was announced after just 100 hours of fighting. thanks to all of you for being

part of my program next week. i'll see you next week. for now i'll send you to cnn headquarters for a check on all the latest news. hello, everyone. i'm debra feyerick in for fredricka whitfield. the white house, president obama reaching out to u.s. allies. the situation escalating with ukraine's prime minister saying russia's military action is a declaration of war and that the country is the on the brink of disaster. secretary of state john kerry calls it an invasion, plain and simple. plus there's a huge winter storm to worry about. more than 100 million people in its path, southeast to midwest. we'll tell you who is going to get hit hardest.

ukraine says it's on the brink of disaster as russian troops move to military bases in crimea. prime ministers called it a red alert, said it called russia's military move amounts to a declaration of war. video from crimea shows unmarked crews coming in, unmarked but license plates are russia. it has had the international community on edge since president putin got parliament's okay to send troops into ukraine. right now nato ambassadors are meeting on the crisis here in the u.s. secretary of state john kerry has strong words. >> it's an incredible act of aggression. it is really a stunning, willful choice by president putin to invade another country. >> he called it an invasion. now, the talks shift to howo