♪ obama ♪ obama >> oh, man! >> that look on his face, priceless. thank you so much for starting your morning with us. >> john king starts now. in a showdown with vladimir putin over ukraine, president obama says he's standing tough. >> the resolve of the united states will remain firm. >> tough talk, too, from the woman who led the administration so-called russian reset. >> we are dealing with a tough guy with a thin skin. >> high stakes for the president. but if there's lasting political fallout, will secretary clinton take the bigger hit. plus, a feisty 2016 gop cattle call. >> it's time for a little rebellion on the battlefield of ideas. >> we have long thought and said this president is a smart man.

it may be time to revisit that assumption. >> lots of obama bashing but also fresh salvos in the gop civil war. >> we don't get to govern if we don't win. >> all of us remember president dole and president mccain and president romthy. you want to lose elections? stand for nothing. >> the right searches for a new message and a new messenger. "inside politics." welcome to inside. politics. i'm john king. robert costa of the washington post, peter hanby. >> two consecutive presidents have made big miscalculations about the russians and

especially about vladimir putin. president obama's trying to rally support saying vladimir putin get your troops out of ukraine. we'll see how it plays out with the diplomacy. as the president tries to communicate had this, some say he needs a little more george w. bush. a little more cowboy. >> that was the big message at cpac this week. a lot of chest beating. this fits perfectly into the republican narrative that obama's been too weak, hasn't done enough to support these democratic forces around the world. at the same time there was no one proposing anything with any specificity that was really that different than what obama is doing right now. i think we'll see how this plays out but the other important thing to remember is that not everyone in america is paying really close attention to this. >> the foreign policy doesn't often get much attention. if you go back to the last campaign, mitt romney said you can't trust the russians and the president was not only dismissive of that, let's flashback to this debate moment. >> the 1980s are now calling to

ask for their foreign policy back. the cold war's been over for 20 years. >> is it a fair criticism that he should have known better? i was there earlier in the george w. bush administration in slovenia. he said i looked into this man's soul, we can trust him. bush admits he got burned. obama came into office, said we'll have a reset. should they have known better? >> you're outlining the problem which is that people are assuming that there is someone with a good read on the motivations and values of russian leadership and we haven't seen that from american politicians. there just is a fundamental disconnect there and the real issue is who can best ride that out. who can best implement a policy that actually moves the needle in some way. it looks like this reset didn't accomplish that. >> i had a conversation with someone in the republican foreign policy apparatus the other day who was no fan of president obama and he didn't want to be named though disagreeing with some of his

party's biggest foreign policy voices but he said what could obama do with putin? like we're saying that if he was taking a harder line that putin wouldn't do these things but this person was saying i'm not sure that's actually true. >> there is absolutely no appetite right now. no one is proposing a military option of any kind and obama knows that. you have a war-weary public that maybe wants to see strength from their leaders but not necessarily confrontation. >> then to that point, robert, make note that the republicans say obama is wrong but they haven't said anything about what they think is right. let's listen to the cpac criticism of the commander in chief. >> we have a president who believes that by the shear force of his personality he would be able to shape local events. >> putin would not be acting with this level of aggression if it were not for the consistent weakness and apiecement of our enemies of president obama. >> mr. president, the only thing that stops a bad guy with a nuke is a good guy with a nuke.

>> not unexpected, robert, the criticism from republicans. what all of them left out is what he's doing in ukraine is pretty similar to what he did in georgia. george w. bush was president when vladimir putin took some territory in georgia. >> i sat down with top congressional leadership aides on the republican side last night and they have mixed feelings about what's happening in ukraine in the political implications because when the house comes back and the senate comes back they are going to start pursuing more debate on the president's leadership, on his handling of the situation. at the same time if they try to move legislation on foreign policy, if the republican party tries to do anything cohesively on the issue, there is a lot of division within the ranks. the rand paul block of the party, versus the more hawkish wing led by marco rubio an others. if the gop is going to maybe foreign policy a key issue, they're going do it with a crowd of republicans who don't know where they want to go. >> we don't though where this situation is going to do but one thing we know is that president

obama won't be on a ballot again. his former secretary of state might be. we're waiting. we'll go through the hillary roller coaster. most of the rules of politics have been thrown away but i think there is one good one -- don't compare anybody to adolf hitler. however, sector clinton decided vladimir putin fit the bill. >> today putin basically said that, oh, you know, all i want to do is protect the rights of the minorities, mainly russian speakers. if this sounds familiar, it is what hitler did back in the '30s. >> i just want everybody to have a little historic perspective. i'm not making a comparison certainly. >> maeve, were you in the room there in california when the secretary pulled it back a little bit. she was making the comparison, then she decided to say she was not making a comparison. what was behind that? >> i think that there was a lot of attention around the remarks. clinton has been so careful to not step out if front of the obama administration while she's in this limbo period deciding whether she's going to be a

candidate. maybe that was a step too far because people won't get into the nuances whether it was a parallel or comparison. what she really did do in that appearance was to try to defense her record on the russia reset an brush away the criticism and say, we have business to get done with russia and i went in there and i pick -- i stood my ground on the real disagreements and i worked on the issues that we could get done and that's the way she's going to frame her record in she runs in 2016. >> if she is a candidate, she's not just a political candidate for office. she's literally one of the most famous people in the world. these comments hit the wires worldwide. she is seen overseas as a voice of the united states. so she probably has to be more careful in making comparisons like this. another point, too, if she does run, this is probably a good lesson for her in just the way the media works. this was supposedly off the record fund-raiser -- >> close press. >> details of it trickled out.

>> but here's the thing. a buzz did the feed reporter broke this story. popped on twitter and rocketed around the internet. i just do think the media landscape has changed. >> maybe romney can remind her -- there's nothing in the world that's not being reported. to that point we talk in recent weeks about the diane blair, hillary clinton's friend, her diaries. the bill clinton administration documents that come out all about the past or her as first lady. she was the secretary of state. do republicans think that's the way to go or do they like more of the bill clinton type in going after hillary? >> when i speak to republicans this past week, they're interested in the story. they're almost surprised by this whole antidote that came out of a fund-raiser. all we've read in articles and books lately about secretary clinton is that she's on message, so disciplined. but this may show she's not exactly on had her a-game yet. they'll continue to look to the player files an other things, let it play out a little bit.

see how clinton does when she is back in the field. >> hillary did not come up that much at cpac, by the way. obama is still public enemy number one for conservatives. >> and mccain came to hillary's defense this week on the hitler comment and other folks in the foreign policy hawks -- >> that probably makes her a little nervous. >> no more props that russian reset button? if anyone says where this, carry this, don't do it. >> good advice. everybody state put. just about everyone thinking of running for president on the republican side paraded through that cpac conference this week in washington. who helped and who hurt their 2016 prospects. our puzzle this week sorts out some wins are special, others, not so much. as we go to break, we tell you every week politicians sometimes say the darnedest things. also do the darnedest things. look here. senator mitch mcconnell, that's a rifle, ladies and gentlemen. he has a reason for it. he's walking on stage at cpac. he didn't explain why had he that rifle but he was giving the

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i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer5. welcome back. we all know winning beats losing. no one will argue with that. but it is also true some wins are more meaningful than others and that's a lesson worth remembering this week. yesterday at cpac rand paul was the big winner. the freshman senator from kentucky running away with it. 31% in the straw poll vote. ted cruz, the other freshman senator from texas, 11%.

a huge win for rand paul. not so fast. you remember the george allen administration. right? the steve forbes administration? if you look at the history of cpac over the years, a lot of people have won the straw poll but only two -- george w. bush and ronald reagan have gone on to be president. big deal in maybe not. there is a special house election in florida on tuesday with a huge mid-term election coming up, everyone in washington will tell you wednesday morning how that election impacts november. let's look at history. in 2009 and before the 2010 mid-terms there were four special house elections. the democrats won 3 out of 4. logic goes if they're winning the special elections in 2009 and early '10 they go into the election with the majority. they've got momentum from the three elections. good year for democrats, right? not so much. john boehner takes the gavel away from nancy pelosi, a huge

republican romp in 2010 in november. despite losing 3 of those 4 special elections beforehand. robert costa, go back to cpac and that straw poll. what's rand paul have to do to beat ronald reagan? >> i think rand paul was always expected to win the cpac. he won last year, his father's won it before. he has all this energy around him on the nsa issue. libertarian college students were on their feet for him at cpac. as he looks to 2016 how does he broaden his message. he is courting romney voters but beyond that, how can he get beyond being ron paul's someone and be a conservative hero in a reagan-type model. >> how does he get beyond being ron paul's son, in a speech he sounded a lot like his dad. >> mr. president, we won't let you -- we will not let you run roughshod over our rights. we will challenge you in the courts. we will battle you at the ballot

box. mr. president, we will not let you shred our constitution. >> you hear the message there. that's what rand paul says all the time. what was your take on him and let me ask in this context -- not just rand paul. of all the 2016 potentials who paraded before that conference, not one of them mentioned immigration. that's been a huge issue in the republican party. not one of them touched it. >> that's right. there were a couple panels about minority outreach and like most panels a at cpac they weren't that well attended. marco rubio who finished second to rand paul last year in the straw poll came in fifth or sixth place this year which could be an indicator of his position on immigration. he led the charge on the senate bill that ultimately failed. he then sort of came out against his own bill. rubio's also interesting because this was like heavily libertarian crowd an marco has really stepped into that sort of neocon interventionist space in the republican party. i think that's probably another

reason why he had such a poor showing there is that a lot of lib tear yans in the crowd aren't necessarily supportive of his foreign policy. >> rubio's whole argument and the centerpiece of his speech was we need to have a much more muscular foreign policy. rand paul didn't mention russia at all in his speech. and had the crowd on their feet. so i don't know that those kinds of arguments from rubio and some of the other traditional republican standard bearers are really working with that crowd. >> chris christie had a pretty good reception there but he didn't talk about gun control and he didn't talk about obamacare. >> instead talked about abortion. >> you have all these tug-of-wars in the republican party. they decided to pass on amnesty. you mention the foreign policy debate is a big one. listen to a bit of what we do know. we have this conference and we are looking to see what conservatives want to talk about, maybe who do they want as their leader. chris christie was there. but he wasn't even invited last year. he says one thing, then there is a quick rebuttal. >> we don't get to govern if we

don't win. >> so we're told that we have to put aside what we believe is in the best interest of the country so a republican candidate can win. now that may result in a win for republican candidate, but it will be a devastating loss for america. >> you look to see, robert costa, if there are new arguments coming out of cpac. that's an old one. you go back to mccain, to romney, even before that. here's the tension, do republicans need to reach to the middle or at least sound more like they are reaching to the middle, have a softer tone, or go more to the right? how is that argument playing out? >> after mitt romney was defe defeated in 2012, all the party leaders got together, gave many interviews about the need to move to the center to broaden the party's appeal. when i was at cpac, i saw reince priebus embracing the conservative base from the stage. every republican leader such as

mitch mcconnell coming out and playing to the base right. they are not trying to push it toward the center in the mid-terms. >> jim demint was a conservative force in the united states senate. he leaves to go to the heritage foundation. we know his view is push right, push right, push right. does he think he's going to win in november? >> well, i don't know. he didn't go that far but i think what's been interesting is when you hear republicans try and paper over these tensions, they say this is really more about tactics. we all want the same thing. and the problem is at a certain point are you just consistently doing tactics and strategy and not presenting any new ideas. this is the point where we want to start seeing from these potential candidates what their ideas are, which is why it was interesting to see somebody -- see any of the candidates -- whether ted cruise or marco rubio talk about foreign policy. something they haven't really had to do the last couple of months. >> cruise was fascinating here at the gridiron dinner, very

funny performance. surprised a lot of people. that will get a little bit of buzz. robert, when you look at 2016 prospects, marco rubio trying to be muscular. ted cruise and rand paul sort of the tea party conservatives, the guys on the right. what about the guys who have run before who are thinking about running again? what about mike huckabee or rick santorum? >> i think the best cpac, texas governor rick perry. he's on his way out in texas but when he was roaming the halls at the dgaylord hotel, sitting dow with the talk radio host, at ease with his glasses. this is someone who is a political talent. we forgot about that in 2012. >> he forgot about that in 2012. >> he's totally reconnecting. >> i talked to him after his speech. it was a 9:00 a.m. speech. the room was sort of lethargic. he came in and brought them to his feet.

he just said, i'm healthy. this is great. to your point, he's run before and republicans who have run before tend to do well. he is very, very much underestimated. is someone who's been in office for a long time with a big donor network, knows how hard it is to run for president and he wants to run again. >> at the same time he will labor under the shadow of his performance in 2012 from the maple syrup speech to his peculiar behavior on the trail. >> i bet you a buck if he's asked if he could eliminate three cabinet agencies, if he runs again -- >> he'll be able to answer. up next, our reporters empty their notebooks including evidence of republican worries and finger pointing about that big special house election tuesday in florida. spokesperson: the volkswagen passat tdi clean diesel can go 795 highway miles on a single tank. huh... so you could drive from los angeles all the way philadelphia with just three stops for fuel. that's just a hop, skip, and a jump.

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each week we help you get ahead of the curve on the big political news by asking our great reporters to share a nugget from their note box. audi? >> this week senator mish mcconnell putting out this radio ad against the senators conservative fund. in the ad it doesn't knock just the candidate, it knocks the fund itself which is going after lots of gop incumbents around the country. i think a pretty telling quote from mcconnell this week is i think we're going to crush them everywhere. the gloves are not just off, they're in another room, under the bed. >> he goes from not wanting to talk about it to saying i'm going to crush them. >> yes. >> robert. >> i spoke with chris christie's top political advisor right before cpac. all he was telling me about chris christie's pro-life record and at cpac we heard that from

chris christie. my prediction in the coming months as kris christie continues to travel with the rga he'll emphasize that pro-life record looking ahead to iowa and south carolina in the 2016 campaign. >> speaking of chris christie, it is no secret that the governor and his big personality rub some of his fellow republican governors the wrong way. we saw in his cpac speech he didn't even mention his vice chairman at the rga, louisiana governor bobby jindal. i'm told these two didn't even cross paths backstage. there was no time set up to meet, even say hello in this green room where all these stars were crossing. jindal spoke right after christie and had they didn't even talk afterwards. just another example of this fraught, chilly relationship that's going to manifest itself if these two run for president. >> they're saving it for the green room in an iowa debate. we'll get that eventually. obviously this week at cpac we had this parade of presidential candidates coming forward but there was strikingly

a lack of a message still to these voter groups they've had such a tough time with, women, minorities. they are going into these communities but they are still figuring out what they're going to say. i think we still need to watch closely whether or not they make any evidence on that front. >> there is a special election tuesday in florida. republicans have held the seat for 58 years. that house seat. but they are increasingly nefbous. many smart republicans believe they've will lost because of early turnout in that race. finger pointing has started in the plame game. we'll see the results on tuesday but republicans think they'll lose that one. call him hamlet. scott brown, the former massachusetts senator has been teasing us about whether he'll run for president or a senate seat in new hampshire. he is now making phone calls i am told to key activists in new hampshire telling them he's ready to jump in. the hard part -- none of them believe him had because he's waited and waited for months.

they are beginning to make phone calls but in new hampshire they won't believe it until scott brown says it publicly or files the papers. that's it for today. see you soon. "state of the union with candy crowley" starts right now. putin stays put. today, your move, mr. president. >> if this violation of international law continues, the resolve of the united states and our allies and the international community will remain firm. >> remaining firm. about what? we talk to tony lincoln, deputy national security advisor at the white house. and the neighborhood watch. russia's move into crimea sets off alarm bells in the former soviet bloc. ambassadors from the baltic nations of latvia, estonia and lithuania join us. an then -- >> no matter what they say, it it is not a sin to reach across the aisle. >> he could be his own bipartisan caucus. the former republican governor of florida who wants to be the