bizarre numerical consequences, búücç 370, the third month and 7th day of the year. curious but we're going to keep looking for the facts here at cnn and here on "the lead," jake tapper is back on)qi3÷ monday. i'm bill weir. i'll turn you over now to wolf blitzer right over there in "the situation room." wolf? >> thanks very much. breaking news. the mystery of flight 370. new information on the plane's apparent westward turn towards the indian ocean. u.s. officials and industry sources saying that the signals show the plane may have been in tact for five hours after contact was lost. we're going to show you where the search is focused. also, u.s. officials say volatile lithium batteries were carried in the plane's cargo hold. they've been blamed in previous crashes. and investigators are even considering the possibility the plane may have landed in a remote island chain.

we'll have a reality check on that. i'm wolf blitzer. you're in the situation room. we begin with dramatic new information leading to more conflicting possibilities about what might have happened to malaysian air flight 370. a full week since that jet with 239 people on board simply disappeared. here are the latest developments. u.s. officials say the plane apparently crashed in the indian ocean with classified analysis showing it may have taken one of two different paths. the u.s. warship is joining the growing search effort there. u.s. officials say investigators are looking into concerns that lithium batteries carried in the cargo hold could have played a role in the airliner's disappearance. a catastrophic fire caused by fires wouldn't explain the signal that the plane flew for hours after it was lost.

flight 370 was apparently in tact for five hours. reuters cite sources saying that the plane deliberately was flown far off course using recognized waypoints. our correspondents are standing by. let's go to the pentagon. barbara starr has brand-new information. what are you learning? >> cnn has learned that there's a new classified analysis that the malaysians and ntsb, faa and u.s. military intelligence officials all joining forces looking at every scrap of information. all of the satellite data, the pings off the airplane that we looked at, radar hits, everything they have and they have come up with this following analysis. they now believe that it is most likely when the plane crossed back over the malay peninsula and flew to the west towards the

indian ocean, the calculation it took one of two turns, that it flew either into the northwest into the bay of bengal off of india or it flew essentially to the southeast, further south towards the island chains down in the far indian ocean. these are hundreds of you miles now being searched but the critical thing, wolf, this now begins to narrow the search into specific areas. none of this is for certain. this is an analysis that they have done, based on the data that they have collected, based on what they know, what those pings were, how far the plane may have flown in those hours and what they can discern from all of the satellite and radar data. so now the indian, navy, and some u.s. airplanes are searching that northern box, if you will, in the bay of bengal. the military is taking a

substantial role in looking for the plane as well as the uds and down further south as you see in that map, the u.s.s. kidd is also looking and scouring the sea surface and the air for any sign of debris field. wolf? >> barbara, why two directions, one north and one south? why did they come -- this intelligence analysis come with two different end points, if you will? >> we don't have perfect knowledge of that. we don't have -- let us be very clear -- all of the information that the government of the united states and government of malaysia has. but our understanding, from people we've spoken to, is this is based when they put all that data together. what we now know, for example, is that the satellite picked up some of those pings. they were able to analyze

location information. the radar gave them location information. the pings went on for about five hours, which tells them how long the plane might have been flying in some sort of relatively stable flight situation because, again, remember, we've also been told that the emergency beacon system that would have indicated a crash, an impact into the ocean or on land perhaps, that never went off. so this plane was in some sort of flight condition, by all accounts, up to five hours and that also has contributed to this very high-technical cue lags that is now being made. but again, wolf, it is a calculation. they will look everywhere they feel they need to. >> and you quote these sources, barbara, as saying that it likely crashed in the indian ocean. does that mean they don't believe it's possible it could have either crashed on land or

landed on land? >> you know, this is such a tough question to answer as the days have gone on i think all of us shall everybody looking at this situation acknowledges that all options, if you will, remain open. we've talked to u.s. officials who say they are not ruling anything out but, you know, they do believe that logic would dictate at this point if a plane crashed or landed anywhere on land, such a large aircraft, so many people, in today's world of modern technology, it would have been found. it's not to say that they are totally ruling it out and i have to tell you, wolf, along with the big question of what happened to the plane, again, not ruling anything out. they don't believe at this point there's any indication of terrorism but the u.s. intelligence community is looking at every single scenario, even before they know what happened to try to get any clue, does it match any pattern of any logical explanation.

so far, they can't come up with anything. >> barbara starr at the pentagon, thank you. let's take a closer look at the lithium battery in the cargo hold. they can be very volatile and they've been blamed for krachs crashes in the past. what are you looking at, pamela? >> they are looking at whether the lithium batteries may -- and i stress, may have been a factor in the plane's disappearance. this is based on cargo information provided to officials and the fact that lithium batteries have sparked plane fires in the past. let's take a look here. this is a lithium battery. this is what you see. this is coming from a laptop. airplanes ban passenger's from putting lithium batteries into checked baggage. in fact, you may recognize this tag here. at the very bottom there's a tag that says dangerous goods, including spare lithium batteries are prohibited. here's why. lithium batteries are more prone to causing fires in other types

of batteries. batteries that are not involved in an initial fire may ignite and propagate, thus creating a risk of a catastrophic event. it's also believed that lithium batteries may have caused a ups plane crash back in 2010 and as we mentioned, airlines banned passengers from bringing spare lithium batteries on board. this would make the scenario that the plane flew for five hours highly unlikely. according to a law enforcement official i spoke with today, investigators are also keenly aware of other theories that have caused plane crashes in the past, like the twa 800 fuel tank spark such as what happened with the egypt air flight and another analogy, stress on the frame and oxygen generators like what

happened in a florida plane crash back in 1996. these are all theories investigators are looking into, wolf. we're a week into this and still no answers. at this point it's really just speculation. there are many unknowns than knowns. >> they certainly are. pamela brown with that report, thanks very much. let's bring in the former fbi assistant director tom fuentes. u.s. and malaysian officials coordinating and thinking that the plane went to the northern part of the indian ocean or the southern part of the indian ocean and likely crashed. what do you make of that? >> wolf, i'm highly skeptical. either they have precise information and satellites and the pings and all of that helped them know which direction the plane went. i don't know how they can say it was going west and either did go north or south or kept going west. this reminds me of chasing fugitives in the fbi and they tell you, they either went that

way or that way. >> it also doesn't tell us whether or not someone commandeered that plane after the transponders were shut down or before the transponders were shut down or whether it was a catastrophic failure. >> it's certainly to me -- i'm not the aviation expert that you had on earlier but it's funny that the plane can take zigs and zags and go north and south. they have more turns than an air show. >> even if you believe it, it flew for four or five hours after losing control well -- losing communications with air traffic controllers on the ground, you have to wonder, was it actually going in a specific direction towards some location? was it just randomly on auto pilot flying someplace? what was going on? we have no clue. >> no, we have to clue. and it would eliminate the theory that a battery caught fire and exploded or some other oxygen tank or something caught

fire because the plane, all of the alarms would go off, the fire suppress sors would be goi off and they would be trying to get it to the nearest airport, whether it's a vietnam airport or malaysian airport. they would not be flying halfway around the indian ocean and there was a fire. >> so you're still working under the assumption that there was a person or persons that caused this, not a mechanical failure? >> even there, if the batteries went off, if there was a fire and if the warnings didn't go back to the kuala lumpur officials, then we need to be having debris in the ocean where they first looked day one because that would be right on the flight path, right at the time the transponders went off. if all of that correspondented, that was the most intense search. where's the debris? >> because if lithium batteries were the cause of this disaster, how could the plane fly for four

or five hours after an explosion of lithium batteries. >> exactly. up next, the search efforts are being refocused after indicating the airliner crashed somewhere in the indian ocean along one of two likely flight paths. a u.s. navy commander aboard a ship in the region is standing by to discuss.

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and there's more breaking news. this time coming in from "the new york times." we just posted a very important report, date line malaysia flight 370 says experienced significant changes in altitude

after it lost contact with ground control and altered its course more than once as if still under the command of a pilot, this according to american officials and others familiar with the investigation. "the new york times" ads that radar signals recorded by the malaysian military appear to show the missing airliner climbing to 45,000 feet above the approved altitude for a boeing 777 soon after it disappeared from radar and made a sharp turn to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data. the radar tracked, which the malaysian government has not released but has provided to the united states and china then shows the plane descending unevenly to an altitude of 23,000 feet below normal cruising levels as it approached the densely populated island of one of the country's largest. there the plane turned from the southwest and climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the strait of malacca towards the indian

ocean. tom foreman, you heard this report as i read it to our viewers in the united states and around the world. what do you make of this new development. "the new york times" is quoting their sources. >> wolf, my concern with this is the cooperation with the malaysian authorities. you know, we've had people criticizing them all week, that they weren't sharing enough information, they weren't cooperating and making the data available to the u.s. experts. now suddenly we have media report after media report citing information from people close to the investigation. whether it's true or not true, just citing that is going to create an enormous political problem for the ntsb and faa people on the ground in kuala lumpur because their colleagues are going to be saying, is this what we get for sharing with you, suddenly it's on "the new york times" or on cnn? >> that's an important point you make. but if in fact it's true, the plane was shifting altitude going up to 45,000, going down to 23,000 and then going back

up. it would indicate someone was in command of that aircraft. it was not on auto pilot or something like that. someone was in charge. hold on for a moment because joining us on the phone now is u.s. navy commander william marks with the u.s. navy seventh fleet aboard the "uss blue ridge." your ships are moving into the indian ocean. i assume the "uss kidd" is there now. how is the search going? >> good morning. we're starting out our day on saturday morning here in the pacific, about 5:00 in the morning here. so we do have "uss kidd" that moved into the northwest part of the strait of malacca. last night it moved a little west. now it's about as far west as you can go into the entrance to the strait of malacca or a little bit northwest.

so you have the "uss kidd" from my perspective here, as you look west and you transition west to the indian ocean, ships alone are really not quite much of a solution as they were in the gulf of thailand just because of the ex pans of the water. so you have to look at what other assets you have. the "kidd" has helicopters but those patrol aircraft in one flight may fly about an nine-hour chunk at a time. they will cover 10, 11 square miles. when you look at it, that's going to be the best asset. >> do you have enough aircraft in the region together with other international partners,

specifically the indian air force, to undertake this type of a search in the northern and southern part of the indian ocean? >> the international effort is growing. at last county had 57 ships, about 40 or so aircraft and that's from 13 countries. so the international effort is growing. however, so has the search area. so as we look upon our day here, we're looking at the number of assets we have and the scope of this area and we just have to take it little by little. that's the best you can do out here. >> is your search focusing in on the northern part of the indian ocean, the bay of bengal, for example, that area or further to the south hundreds of miles to the south near christmas island, as it's called? >> today we're looking

essentially west of kuala lumpur. so if you're there, throw a line due west and go from there. that was the last search area. for today i'm going to have to look this morning but it will probably be pretty close to that. >> yesterday you told us here in "the situation room" you basically have gone from searching a chess board to now searching a football field. do you want to revise or amend those comments or give us some up to date clarification? >> well, i think that's accurate. it's a challenge. we are very closely watching the crews and the equipment. we're watching how much our people can go out. i think that's accurate.

there are more questions and it's to a point now where it is almost day-by-day and the information changes. so very challenging situation. >> one final question, commander, before i let you go. you've spoken about how emotionally challenging this is for the men and women of the united states navy, the marine corps who are involved in this search right now and the grief counselors may be necessary. what's the latest on that front? >> we've brought them out here in case the personnel -- in case during this search the people on board would have been found on the surface of the water. the bodies or fragments of the bodies and that's -- that's what those counselors are for.

from our experience, when you have to recover the remains of bodies, that is extremely emotionally taxing and so we have a very good support system for that and that's what we are watching out for. >> well, our best wishes to you, commander, and all of the men and women of the united states navy, the marine course, all of the u.s. military personnel and members of the coast guard and others who are involved in this extraordinary search. we'll check back with you. of course, commander william marks of the u.s. navy's seventh fleet aboard the "uss blue ridge". the airliner may have crashed somewhere in the indian ocean. but why? scrutiny is being directed at the pilots. we're taking a closer look at these two men. plus, investigators still haven't ruled out the possibility that the plane may have actually landed in a revote island chain. we're going to have a reality check on that as well. stay with us. you're in "the situation room." if you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, like me,

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we're following the breaking news that is coming in this time from "the new york times." reporting that the malaysia air flight 370 experienced significant changes in altitude and altered its course more than once as if still under a pilot's control. american officials and others familiar with the investigation says radar signals appear to show the missing airliner climbing to over 45,000 feet soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and then made a sharp turn to the west. radar shows that the plane desended unevenly to an altitude of 23,000 feet. that's below cruising levels. malaysia's large and popular island of panang over to the indian ocean. this follows the cnn report by

barbara starr citing a classified analysis of data conducted by u.s. agencies and and both flight calculations after it went past the malay peninsula. with us right now, the fact that "the new york times" report is true and we haven't confirmed that it's "the new york times" citing their sources, plane went up to 45,000, down to 23,000 and then back up to 30,000. it was very erratic. what does that say to you? >> it says possibly that there was some type of a fight for control of the aircraft within the cockpit. now, it could be that the captain and co-pilot fighting over the controls like we had in the egypt air pilot suicide crash or it could mean a separate hijacker in there who is not a good pilot and maybe he can't control the plane from

going up or down. it could be that they took it up to 45,000 feet to make passengers pass out. i don't know if that would be a good excuse or not. but certainly it would indicate that there is some type of erratic flying going on indicating a problem controlling the aircraft on the part of the pilots. >> and if they can determine through radar or various means the altitude going up and down flying in this erratic way and in a direction, they have pretty good information if you believe that. >> well, that's the next question. they can tell where the plane is at within 15,000 feet elevation but they can't tell within 10,000 miles where it flew to? that's the confusing part to me. >> yeah, that remains to be seen as well. thanks very much. don't go too far away. tom fuentes reporting on the

breaking news, officials saying that the airliner, likely according to our sources, crashed in the indian ocean showing it may have taken one of two different paths. as investigators scramble to come up with clues to the disappearance of the flight, scrutiny is being directed at the two pilots. cnn's pamela brown is joining us. what are you finding out? >> wolf, there are so many unanswered questions here about what happened to flight 370 and why it possibly changed course like we were talking about and that has put the two pilots and their previous behavior squarely into focus. we still have a lot to learn about them but what was said in the cockpit right before the plane vanished gives few clues. "all right, good night," those were the last words from the cockpit. what we don't know is who said them. was it 53-year-old captain

zaharie shah or fariq ab hamid? just weeks ago, cnn's richard quest was granted access into the cockpit with pilot fariq ab hamid. it wasn't the first time he had a guest in the cockpit. >> air hostess came and asked us if we wanted to go up to the cockpit which we did. >> this woman said that while she was on vacation she and a friend flown and took these photos smoking cigarettes in the cockpit after hearing the story, malaysia airline says we are shocked by these allegations. we don't know as much about the pilot captain zaharie. he shows an interest in home

improvement. police have been outside of his home since flight 370 vanished. they have not yet entered or searched the home according to malaysian officials. flight 370 may have flown up to five hours after the last contact with the pilots. there are more theories and questions about what happened. was there mechanical and communications failure? could it have been a suicide crash by one of the pilots or did someone enter the cockpit and take over the plane? >> there seems to be a real trail that leads to something taking that aircraft. that doesn't just happen by accident. >> and wolf, from what we have learned, the pilots recently started working together on the boeing 777. officials are looking at every possible scenario including whether the pilots had any psychological issues. many are wondering why officials say they hadn't searched their homes. u.s. officials say that would have been the first thing they would do in a situation like this. >> you would think.

pamela brown, thanks very much. tom fuentes is still with us. our law enforcement analyst. you've worked on these international investigations. why wouldn't they go into that home just to rule out the possibility that someone untoward might have happened? >> i think, wolf, the only explanation that i can think of is that maybe in their legal system they don't quite have enough probable cause to get a search warrant to actually go into their homes because there's been no indication specifically that there was wrongdoing on their part. >> but the lead pilot, the 53-year-old pilot, he had in his home the simulator of a cockpit, if you will, and a lot of people are suggesting, maybe they should take a look at that, see if he was looking at various destinations, looking at various dress rehearsals, anything along those lines. >> right. you would think they'd want to look at that and computer and e-mails that he sent and received, phone records, bank records, are either of them in financial trouble, are they in trouble with their employer?

you know, in some kind of a situation with the malaysian airlines that maybe they are about to be fired and we don't know it and they haven't released that. there's a lot of things like that that we don't know about but doesn't mean that it's not done or hasn't been done. >> we have former colleagues of the fbi that were there. you would think that they would want to do all of that? >> like i said, it may have been done. they are not going to report back to the public in the u.s., they are doing this or that. that aspects of what the police are doing in the investigation is still going to remain confidential so that the agents in kuala lumpur maintain their trust with their colleagues. and that's why i'm talking about the other leaks coming out from sources concerning the radars and satellites and all of that. you know, that creates a huge problem for the people working side-by-side with malaysian colleagues. >> tom fuentes, thanks very much. up next, the man who helped find flight air france 447 says there is something suspicious. i'll ask him about the latest

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we're following the breaking news surrounding the mystery of the malaysia airlines flight 370. barbara starr reporting that a classified analysis of an electronic and satellite data conducted by u.s. agencies together with the malaysian government calculating that the flight likely crashed in the indian ocean in one of two possible flight paths, the northern part of the indian ocean or the southern part.

and "the new york times" reporting just moments ago that the flight went through very erratic changes in altitude after it lost contact with ground control. joining us now is david gallo, from the oceanographic institute. david, what's the chance if you're searching in the northern part of the indian ocean around the bay of bengal as opposed to hundreds of miles south? is it basically different water levels? >> the water levels are a bit different. it can go in the northern part to very shallow and in fact there the sea floor is all of the sediments that is a very sedimented smooth bottom. but if you move further south and to the west you start to get into rugged volcanic terrain and the water depth there can get down in some spots to 2 1/2

miles. that's a totally different type of technology that would be needed to do an underwater search. >> what's the new technology that you would need? >> in air trans we had something akin to underwater drones, auvs. and we had several of those on one boat and they could make an incredibly detail map working together in concert to, in essence, the track lines were like the most precise lawn mowing or field plowing that you can get. the last thing you want to do is to go into the haystack and miss the plane, go over an area and say it's not there and miss it and go on to the next place. so we wanted to be sure, we did every spot three times. >> it's been one week since the plane went missing. how strong are the currents in those waters that could have moved debris or whatever is left of that plane around? >> we're looking at an area so big. areawise, it's as large as the entire north atlantic.

conditions can vary one day to the next. with air france 447, we had the last known position, that was important but more importantly we had floating debris that we were able to backtrack over five days, not an easy thing, to give us an "x" marks the spot about where the plane hit the water. the other thing we had was acars data that cut off roughly after four minutes. we knew that plane was probably airborne for four minutes and we could draw a circle. it's a big area but nothing compared to what we're looking at here. >> that's a huge, huge difference, four minutes compared to four or five hours. >> wolf, when you mentioned the pentagon report, you used the word crashed into the indian ocean. do we have any idea that that plane -- it makes me suspicious that someone thinks they saw the plane go down. because otherwise, if it's five hours, that's actually not the

bay of bengal. that could take it out past india into the arabian sea. are they saying now that they think the plane crashed? >> they are saying likely, according to this one classified analysis that our barbara starr got ahold of. but they are still not ruling anything out by any means. they are not ruling out the possibility that it could have landed somewhere, could have crash landed. >> right. >> they simply don't know. this is an analysis basically that we're been reporting. >> five hours implies that they were nying until they ran out of fuel or landed somewhere and kept the engine running. for those kinds of clues, they would say, what do you care about that? we want to be sure that we get as close as possible as that "x" marks a spot before we put our vehicles in the water. >> i totally agree with you. david gallo, thank you for helping us appreciate better what is going on right now. "new york times" reporting that flight 370 experienced

significant changes in altitude after they lost contact with the cockpit. it flew up to 45,000 feet and then descended uneven unevenly erratically to 23,000 feet. walk us through these scenarios, what you're seeing over there in the simulator. you're there with a pilot trainer. help us appreciate better what is going on, martin. >> reporter: wolf, we were just trying to go through these numbers that are being reported here. the first thing that struck us was the altitude. 45,000 feet. that's incredibly high even for an aircraft like this, right? >> yeah. well, it is the maximum ceiling for this aircraft. the ceiling for this aircraft is 41. if you really push it, maybe 43,000 with reduced performance. 45,000 is out of the -- >> and you're taking one big

risk? >> assuming you're in control of the aircraft. and then we talk about this other lower level that is 23,000 feet that the plane descended to erratically. the key we don't know is over what time frame, right? >> right. that's the critical missing component. >> you could do that over time without too much trouble but if you're doing it in five minutes, that's one heck of a descent? >> that's the problem. yes. >> wolf, that's the problem. still more clues but nothing definitively that gives us an answer. the other thing we talked about, the plane continuing on into the indian ocean and going on to the andaman islands. can a 777 land there? we don't know if it did but a simulator, you can try it. everything has been loaded. we're going to make the approach to the airport and we're going to find out, is it possible for

a 777 to make a landing at this international airport at this particular place in the indian ocean. we're starting off roughly about five miles out? >> this is about six miles out? >> six miles. >> i see a speed of 147 miles an hour. by now the landing gear is already down, everybody is strapped in in the back. you can see in the distance the air field that we're making the approach to. one of the things i should point out is the runway on this particular airport is not necessarily the ideal landing, right? >> that's correct. it's a little narrower. it's more suited for smaller airplanes, a-320 or 21. this is a wide-bodied jet. the landing gear foot print is a little wider. it's more of a tricky landing. this is not ideal for a 777. >> if you were doing this for the very first time, you'd be pretty concerned as a pilot, right? >> exactly. every airport that an airline

flies to is vetted, it's checked ahead of time and to fly into a new airport is, again, unheard of without having the proper training. >> wolf, we're now about 1,200 feet above the ground moving at an air speed of maybe 152 miles an hour. the other thing you note about this particular runway, it's right up against the ocean. we're coming in from the west and heading towards the east? >> that's correct. >> if this flight goes too long, if the runway is not long enough, we're going to go right into the water. now a speed of 152 miles an hour. you can see the topography coming up. it's a simulation but this is designed. here's the warning that we're at 1,000 feet. it's an indication of how the land looks around this particular airport. it's a night landing. it's possible it could have been daylight but a night landing is even more treacherous.

again, everything is loaded in. the weight of the aircraft, the fuel on board, number of people. everything to simulate a real plane attempting this real landing. he's going to aim for just beyond the green line to set the wheels down. and as soon as he does, he'll want to stop this plane. >> absolutely. here we go. reverse thrusters are on. you hear the sound of the engines slowing us done. essentially, it could be done.

an airliner could be done. there's no evidence that it did. >> but that's amazing simulation. martin savidge, thanks so much for showing us what potentially could happen. we will resume the special coverage flight 370. we're reporting there's a classified intelligence report suggesting the likely -- the likely causes of a crash in the indian ocean but there are other options as well. much more after this. tall the building is,

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right back to our breaking news coverage of malaysia flight 370 in just a moment but first a

quing update on an urgent story happening right now. tensions extremely high in ukraine as russian troops mass on the border ahead of sunday's referendum vote in crimea. secretary of state john kerry met with his russian counterpart today for more than five hours about no more tangible results. we've got more on the very latest. set the scene, diana. >> reporter: hi, wolf. well, it's just two days to go into this referendum. we've been driving around the north of the country, and it does not look at all as though the russian president is trying to de-escalate the situation. we saw heavy weaponry on the streets, long range artillery guns, a major waterway that cuts through the northern part of this region, every single bridge was guarded by russian troops with apcs. we talked to some of them. they said they came from chechnya, some of them, that they've been here a long time and were just following orders,

didn't really know the grand scheme of things. a long time before christmas, they said, since this crisis began, which raises more questions as to when this whole annexation which effectively we're seeing is here already was conceived and put into action. as i said, two days now before this referendum and, of course, it raises questions how free and fair it can be when people have this kind of heavy military presence on their streets, where essentially they are casting their vote with a barrel of a gun at them. >> diana, people are fearing the worst right now, is that what i'm hearing? >> reporter: well, it depends who you are, and this is a very mixed region. there are many, many ethnic russians who are very much looking forward to a return to mother russia, a return to the homeland, who remember growing up in the soviet union and feel ukraine over the past 23 years has brought them nothing. they think this will improve

their lives especially economically. there are the tatars, ethnic ukrainians and many russians who much prefer the situation with ukraine. but if you talk to certainly the pro-russian government but also a lot of people on the streets, it does feel slightly as though this is already a foregone conclusion and that the writing is on the wall on sunday the referendum will go russia's way, wolf. >> diana magnay reporting for us from crimea. thanks very, very much. and happening now, breaking news in the mystery of flight 370, after a week of searching, new fuel for the theory that the missing jet crashed in the ocean. stand by. we have new details of a classified analysis by u.s. and malaysian investigators. we're also learning about potentially dangerous cargo inside the jet. did it play a role in this disaster? and messages of hope for the 239 missing passengers and crew

members. is there any plausible way they could have survived? we want to welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. you're wolf -- i'm wolf blitzer. you're in "the situation room." >> the breaking news this hour. cnn has learned detail s of a classified analysis of electronic and satellite data conducted by u.s. officials along with the malaysian government that calculates that flight 370 likely, likely crashed in the indian ocean, two flight paths, one to the northwest, the other to the southeast. we've also learned investigators are looking into concerns that lithium batteries in the cargo hold may have played a role in the jet's disappearance. that type of battery has been blamed for previous jet crashes. "the new york times" is reporting that flight 370 experienced significant changes in altitude after it lost contact with ground control and altered its course more than once as if still under the command of a pilot.

our correspondents and analysts are working their sources. they're sifting through all the new leads and the theories. they are all standing by with a lot more information, but let's go to barbara starr over at the pentagon. she broke this story of this classified intelligence analysis of what happened to flight 370. tell us what you've learned. >> wolf, it is an analysis, it's the best information they have right now. nothing is proven. but a classified analysis in conjunction, a team, the malaysians, the united states federal aviation administration, the national transportation safety board and military imagery analysts all put their heads together, looked at every piece of data. they're looking at radar data, they're looking at the satellite pings that we have talked about and look at the map. here's what they have come up with. when the plane crossed back over the malay peninsula and flew to the west -- and they believe they have a radar hit showing that happened -- it went in possibly one of two directions

according to the analysis. it may, may have turned to the northwest and flown into the bay of bengal off the coast of india. that is an area now that the indian military and the united states are both searching. there is a plausible additional flight path, we are told, that it turned and flew to the southeast. this is an area that the u.s. navy ship is also searching with its helicopters. what all of these assets are really looking for is any indication on the surface of the ocean of a debris field. they're looking with their sonar to see if they can distinguish anything that is not the water that is not supposed to be there. what this analysis tells us they have begun to at least narrow down the vast area of the indian ocean that they think it is most likely the plane went down in. wolf? >> barbara, thanks very much. barbara starr with that report.

flight 370. investigators can't afford to ignore any possibility right now including from concerns about lithium batteries in the cargo hold, and they also want to question the pile ots of this aircraft. >> that's right. so many more unknowns than knowns at this point. everything has been scrutinized from the passengers to the cargo to the crew. we've learneded that the pilots only started working together on the boeing 777 fairly recently. all right, good night. those are the last words heard from the cockpit of flight 370. while we don't know whose voice that was, one of the first questions for investigators, who were the two men at the controls of flight 3p70, the pilots. fariq hamid who was new at the controls and the captain zaharie shah seen here in a youtube video he posted with his own flight simulator in the

background. >> if it was here in the united states, the pilots, all information about them would be looked at very closely. and that would include the searches of their residences, to search for their computers, what kind of e-mail traffic they have, cell phone traffic. >> but malaysian police say they haven't searched their homes despite early reports they did. >> reports suggesting that malaysian police searched the homes of the crew are not true. >> reporter: investigators are also looking at the pilots' past behavior. a passenger on a flight co-piloted by hamid told piers morgan hamid let her and her friend take pictures and even smoke in the cockpit. if the pilots didn't do anything to sabotage the plane, what about the rest of the crew and the passengers? despite chinese reports raising concern about a passenger of uighur descent on the flight, one official tells cnn it wasn't a pervasive concern for investigators. >> do any of the names match up to any of the databases, the

national crime information center, do they have a criminal record, do they information on any of the watch lists that may come up, is there anything about their travel documents or attempts to apply for visas in the united states? >> reporter: officials tell cnn so far they haven't found any terrorism connections with the plane's passengers. that covers the who. now the what. the cargo. investigators are looking into concerns that lithium batteries in the cargo that have caused previous crashes could have played a role. >> you could have something on that aircraft that doesn't cause a catastrophic explosion but maybe causes a fire and fire is extremely dangerous. it may have led to power failure and other problems going on. >> reporter: one official said at this point investigators have no reason to believe any of the cargo was put on the plane with any malicious or criminal intent. if the batteries on the plane did cause a fire, that still doesn't explain other anomalies like the pinks indicating the plane may have flown up to five hours toward the indian ocean.

so bottom line here it seems like you can poke a hole in just about every theory we have about this plane. i spoke to another law enforcement official who said investigators are also keenly aware of other theories like suicidal pilots like what you saw in the egypt air crash and whether the oxygen generators overheated. we saw that in a plane crash in florida in '96. everything is on the table. they're clooking at everything. >> as they should, they've got to look at all these options. thanks very much, pamela brown. now another breaking story. "the new york times" reporting the flight 370 had sharp erratic changes in altitude. brian todd is working this part of the story for us. >> reporter: "the new york times" report, if it's accurate, shows very dramatic swings of this plane. it cites u.s. officials and others familiar with the investigation saying radar signals recorded by the malaysian military show the plane climbed to 45,000 feet, that's above the approved altitude limit, did that soon after it disappeared from radar right about here.

then according to the "times"' report, it made a sharp turn to the west. the radar track then shows the plane descending unevenly to an altitude of 23,000 feet, that's below the approved cruising level and that's as it approached the malaysian island of panang. that's this dot here. that's one of the country's most densely populated islands. then the plane turned from a southwesterly course here to a northwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude, flew over the strait of malacca. the times did say the data the incomplete, difficult to determine. if this report is accurate, some dramatic swings in altitude and tack for this plane. again, climbing to 45,000 shortly after it disappears from radar here taking a sharp turn to the west, descending unevenly to 23,000 feet as it approaches this small island of panang

which is as far as their archipelago is concerned, one of the smaller islands. descends unevenly to 23,000 feet then climbs to a higher altitude westerly course over the straight and into the indian ocean. if this report is accurate, again, a dramatic swing of altitude and tack for this jet. >> all that information coming from "the new york times." brian, thanks very much. let's dig deeper at some of the other various theories about flight 370 whether this will turn out to be a crash investigation, criminal investigation, terror investigation. rene marsh is here. >> tonight we're looking at all of the puzzle pieces. we're asking two main questions. is there a logical aeronautical explanation or does it point to something more sinister? >> the last transmission from the aircraft was at 01:07 which indicated that everything was normal. >> reporter: then no more data

about the health of the plane and its engines. we asked two experts to examine the evidence so far on the disappearance of flight 370. steve wallace, a former faa official skilled at looking at aeronautical explanations for incidents. christopher vos, a former fbi agent skilled at looking for nefarious explanations. >> my first thought is, all right, is there a catastrophic event that immediately took the plane out of the sky? whether it be mechanical failure like twa flight 800 or a well-placed bomb like pan am 103. >> wallace says perhaps there were no problems to report. >> it's unclear to me when the next scheduled transmission of that data, maybe it's sent every few minutes or so. not something the pilots would have any reason to tamper with. >> reporter: 14 minutes later the plane's transponder goes off. >> different instruments being shut off at different times, that's really starting to bother

me a lot more now. >> reporter: what does it suggest? >> it suggests an intentionality on someone's part. >> there is no reason ever for a pilot to turn a transponder off unless the air traffic controller calls him and tells him there's some problem with his data block. >> reporter: but there was no known communication. the other possibility, a massive electrical failure. but you'd expect all systems to go at once. radar suggests the plane may have made a turn. >> that that might suggest that there was some unauthorized control of that airplane, either by a pilot or by an intruder. >> reporter: but our criminal investigator isn't terribly concerned. he paints a possible scenario. >> they're losing the systems, they're worried about keeping the plane in the air at all, trying to find a place to put the plane down. >> reporter: reuters reports military radar may have tracked the plane flying towards india's andaman island following navigation markers.

was someone flying or were the pilots incapacitated and the plane on auto pilot? can you follow this kind of flight path without someone at the controls? can auto pilot accomplish this? >> auto pilot could absolutely accomplish that. but it woot have to be programmed into the auto pilot and there would be no legitimate reason to program in that flight path which is sort of zigzagged in random directions. >> with that much of intention, with a lack of data and communication from the ground, again that really begins to trouble me. >> so we know that flight 370 had several elts, legion locator transmitters, on the plane but none of those activated. you can activate them manually, you can also activate them, they're also activated upon impact. again, that did not happen. so we did ask that fbi agent, you know, what does he make of that. and he said this, as ridiculous as it may sound, and these are

his words, the fact that those elts did not go off, investigators wouldn't be able to rule out the fact that this plane maybe landed safely somewhere, so that's a lead they have to chase down. but just for some perspective here, those elts do not work in water. even though it made that impact with the water, once it goes down into the water, you would not get a signal and everything would happen so quickly. so as one person put it tot me, it would make sense that this elt did not signal. >> elt, what does that stand for? >> the emergency locator transmitter and that's it right in front of you there. >> this is it. >> and that is to let search and rescue essentially know where a crash site is. that did not go off in this flight. if it did indeed make impact with something, they didn't get that signal. >> all right. thanks very much, rene, don't go toofr away. we're digging deeper.

charles barnett is a boeing 777 pilot. chuck, let me start with you. this report from "the new york times" that the plane was going at 45,000, then down to 23,000, then back up to 30,000. would that be auto pilot or would a pilot have to be in control of those kinds of erratic maneuvers? >> well, thanks for having me, wolf. i think that suggests that an airplane likely out of control. going up to 45,000 feet is almost 2,000 feet above the surface ceiling of the airplane. the airplane wouldn't want to do that even with a pilot trying to suggest that it go up, with the pilot trying to control the plane to tgo up there. it does suggest a controllability issue. >> that someone was in control if you're going from 45 to 23 back up to 30, it's not auto pilot, right? >> it would not be auto pilot. and i'm not sure a pilot could make the airplane do that

intentionally. >> what do you make of this "new york times" report, jim? >> i feel like this is a situation that has a lot of complexity and a lot of confusion and a lot of things that really just don't make much good sense. i mean, why would the airplane climb to 45,000 feet and then descend to 23,000 feet? i mean, if there was somebody at the controls making this happen, they really have strange ideas about getting from point a to b. there's something else going on here. i don't know that those figures are accurate. >> let me interrupt, because tom fuentes, former fbi assistant director, law enforcement analyst, that would suggest to him that maybe there was a struggle among two pilots, for example, in the cockpit and that's why we saw that erratic behavior. >> that's certainly a possibility and it's one that i had not considered. i think that that certainly should be something we look

into. but then again, what happened afterwards? you know, it's like they made this big jump up and down and back up again and then the airplane continued to fly and for how long and in which direction. whatever was happening there in this cockpit was happening because somebody was putting inputs into the control of the airplane. i don't think the airplane was programmed to automatically do that on auto pilot or whatever. somebody was in that cockpit and created all this up and down and change of course and change of altitude, something else was going on in that cockpit. >> yes, i think everyone seems to think that it's less and less likely mechanical failure more likely some individual or individuals responsible for that kind of erratic flight maneuvers. fran townsend, i know you're well plugged in. what's your instinct tell you right now? what's the latest you're hearing? >> wolf, between the zigzagging formation, the change in

altitude, i think the end of today's sort of takeaway on the story is, i think most investigators have come to the conclusion that this was not a catastrophic mechanical failure. they're now focused on who was in the cockpit, how many people and what was going on there when the transponders each get turned off, 15 minutes apart, when the plane is making these turns, when it's changing altitude. could it have been a struggle? yes. but that's just a theory. you don't know if it's one individual or several individuals involved. we certainly don't know what the motivation was. >> let me bring richard quest into this conversation as well. the report that lithium batteries were in the cargo hold, we know other crashes have been linked to lithium batteries. what do you make of this development? >> i think it's a very interesting other piece of the jigsaw to put on the table because a fire using lithium batteries is exactly the sort of incident that could overwhelm

the jetliner causing the pilots to want to head back to the coast and back over land and there again you end up with this scenario of a series of events that overwhelmed the capacity of the pilots flying the plane. what is really significant as we come to the end of this week, wolf, is that we've started to get some really useful, good information. now, it doesn't matter whether it's come as a result of it being handed to the -- interpreted by the nts sbrks and the americans or the europeans or the malaysians, it doesn't really matter. the fact is we end the week with a much better idea of the scenarios of where this plane is than we did at the beginning of the week. although we don't know exactly, wolf, we are in an immeasurably better position than we were 24, 48, 72 hours ago. >> richard quest, i want everyone to stand by. we're going to continue our special report here in "the situation room."

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if your denture moves, it can irritate your gums. try fixodent plus gum care. it helps stop denture movement and prevents gum irritation. fixodent. and forget it. we're following the breaking news, u.s. officials now say a classified analysis of electronic and satellite information calculates together with malaysian authorities that the malaysian airlines flight 370 likely, likely crashed somewhere in the indian ocean, possibly in one of two flight paths. cnn is told the analysis was conducted with the ntsb, the faa, along with the malaysian government. key word -- likely. still no certainty. still not certainty yet. let's go to kuala lumpur. andrew stevens has been all over

t this story for us. what's the latest there in malaysia. >> likely but not certain but fits in with the theories, the stories that we've been reporting out of kuala lumpur about how this flight 370 did in fact go back across the malaysian peninsula out over the strait of malacca. we had this story saying they picked up this blip, it was unidentified, now also the pings which are also unidentified. the malaysian government is still saying we're searching both sides of malaysia, the west and the east. they're still looking in the south china sea. but over the past 24 hours, definitely the theories, the information, the intelligence is moving very, very firmly towards those areas that barbara's been talking about. the malaysians themselves have been very, you know, reticent about developing the story certainly here in kuala lumpur officially talked to them at the

press conference. for example, we were speaking a few hours ago about the pings which have been picked up. i put that to the malaysian head of the defense department. he said, all he said was we're aware of those media reports. we will not comment until we get further information. it's been the same story all along here. very frustrating. they've been very, very cautious. there have been complaints about the handling of the information working with some of their allies in this search. but perhaps now we're getting a real focus. >> andrew stevens in kuala lumpur, thank you. one week ago this time flight 370 was supposed to have arrived in beijing. people from china account for a vast majority of the passengers presumed to have died on the flight, but that's just a presumption. we don't know. however, some of the families are finding hope in the theories that the plane may actually have been hijacked and landed on ground somewhere safely. let's go live to david mckenzie

who is joining us in beijing. for the loved ones who are waiting this the clearly a heartwrenching experience. >> a heartwrenching experience, wolf and with every day new theories that gives these people some kind of hope even though one believes that hope has all but vanished. now what would be a worst-case scenario for everyone who deals with plane crashes, that of a hijacking or terrorist attack appears to be what people are saying is their best case scenario. several family members we talk to who are stuck in a hotel here in beijing say they hope that the plane was hijacked because maybe that gives them some hope that their family member ps are alive. that really tragic hope at this point exactly seven days, it must be said, since this plan was due to arrive here in beijing. we've been following this from the start here. at first shock, then anger and frustration and now just the desperate clinging to any hope by these family members here in

beijing. >> david mckenzie in beijing. thanks very much. for our north american viewers, by the way, "crossfire" won't be seen tonight so we can bring you more of our special "situation room" report on the mystery of flight 370. we'll take a quick break. much more right after this. create a three course italian dinner with olive garden's new cucina mia for just $9.99. first, choose unlimited soup or salad. then create your own pasta with one of five homemade sauces. and finish with dessert. three courses, $9.99. at olive garden. ...and let in the dog that woke the man who drove to the control room [ woman ] driverless mode engaged. find parking space. [ woman ] parking space found. [ male announcer ] ...that secured the data that directed the turbines that powered the farm that made the milk that went to the store that reminded the man to buy the milk that was poured by the girl who loved the cat. [ meows ] the internet of everything is changing everything.

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flight 370. i'm wolf blitzer in "the situation room." we want to once again welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. "the new york times" is reporting the plane experienced significant changes in altitude after it lost contact with ground control and altered its course more than just once as if still under the command of a pilot. joining us now is michael schmidt, he's one of the reporters from "the new york times" who wrote this story. also joining us, cnn's richard quest. charles barnett, he's the 777 pilot, also an aviation attorney. michael, thanks very much for coming in. let's talk about your report. give us the upshot. what did you learn? >> basically this plane moved in several different directions after it went off -- >> after the transponders stopped sending information. >> correct, correct. >> to ground control. >> at first it goes -- shortly after it goes off the radar, it goes up to 45,000 feet, which is above its normal flying altitude. and then shortly after that, it's down around 20,000 feet, which is