today. >> thank you for starting your day with us here on "new day sunday." inside politics with john king starts right now. a big republican win at a florida special election and a bigger debate about its lasting mid-term meaning. >> the american people are still concerned about the president's health care law. >> the republicans are wasting their time using that as their electoral issue. >> but most democrats now concede winning back the house is a lost cause and republicans are more and more confident of a senate takeover. together we're going to make 2014 a great republican year. plus, here we go again. republicans search for the next ronald reagan. >> you can call yourself republicans. that's fine. don't call yourself reagan

republicans. >> our brand-new poll reveals an early surprise atop the gop pack and suggests a 2012 laughingstock could be 2016's come-back kid. >> i judge people on how do you react after a failure? >> ""inside politics,"" the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters -- now. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thanks for sharing your sunday morning. with us to share their reporting and insights, malika henderson, and cnn's peter hanby. nancy pelosi and her democrats you might say are in denial. a 2x4 to the head is how one democratic strategist described the outcome to me. top obama political advisor david plouffe called it a screaming siren in an interview friday with bloomberg news. now the republicans won the ad

war and turnout war. jonathan martin, what's the message? republicans leave florida convinces, keep focusing on the president and his hilt care plan. they seen unified. >> i think the problem for democrats is how much longer are their numbers going to hang in there on the health care law. they're going to keep defending it obviously for a while. but i was talking on the hill this week. a lot of frustration among congressional democrats because they're not getting in their eyes enough air cover back in interest states and districts on this health care law. they view the white house as never having sold the law in the first place, not selling it now when they are up for election this year and facing tens of millions of dollars in outside spending from gop groups. >> you mention the air cover. a tea party link group, mens for prosperity, went into arkansas right away after florida spending several hundred

thousand dollar. the president's health care secretary, she gave republicans another big gift this week. watch this. here's the president in 2010. imagine a republican campaign ad that starts with this. >> this law will cut costs and make coverage more affordable for families and small businesses. >> and then this. >> i think premiums are likely to go up. >> how does the administration get out of this? >> it is very difficult because, look, enrollment numbers are coming in far below their projected rate. . only 4.2 million right now. they want up to 6 million or 7 million which they initially projected. that's not going to happen. costs could certainly rise. the problem for democrats here is that on obamacare is really what drives republican voters to the polls. democrats don't really have that issue yet to bring voters out to the polls. they don't have anything to rally behind. that's going to be a really difficult issue. that's something they'll have to figure out in the next coming

weeks. >> demographically in a presidential election we say the democrats have an advantage because they get the latino vote, they get the african-american vote. but in a mid-term election, look what happens. in the presidential elections, the percentage of white voters is down but in a mid-term like in 2010, white voters are up. that right there is a big advantage for republicans. white vote goes up, republican advantage. that's not it. republicans in recent years as well have also been winning the senior vote. the florida district of course, heavily populated by seniors. look what happens in a mid-term election. seniors, your most reliable voting bloc. that percentage goes up. in a mid-term year when that goes up, that's advantage republicans. by the time we get to 2016, we'll probably say the demographics favor democrats but right now it if the democrats don't have a unified message and they have a turnout model with health care, how do the democrats change this?

>> they haven't figured it out yet. they're sort of going from pillar to post trying to figure out their message, is it around the minimum wage, is it around the gender pay gap. they've tried to settle on something in the last few weeks. if you look at a state like louisiana, mary landrieu does so well in 2008 because barack obama is on the ballot. kay hagen wins in north carolina in 2008 because barack obama is on the ballot. they haven't figured out a way how to get those african-americans out to vote and it could be that they need to talk more about obamacare because obama's base is still very excited about the things he wants to do. >> to your point, i mean the democratic spin after this loss, well, this was sort after republican leaning district, majority white district, older district, this isn't our turf. but this is exactly their turf. that's the problem for them. another point here, too, when you talk about mary landrieu and mark pryor, these folks have to answer for their votes for obamacare. she was able to say when i go there i'll try to do my best to

fix it. from if we're having this conversation six weeks ago we'd be saying nine or ten democratic senate seats. let me start with this -- anyone here think the house is still in play? okay. let's move on to the senate. i think that's a fair statement. we had nine or ten maybe a month, six weeks ago, democrat-held seats. now we're looking at 12 or 13. we add colorado, new hampshire to the mix, now with scott brown exploring into the mix. the map is expanding for the republicans at just the right moment. right? >> absolutely. scott brown up in new hampshire taking it on unless they thought wind was blowing at their backs. i think those two moves in the last couple weeks are a sign of rising gop confidence and also a reminder that if this year turns out to be really bad for democrats it could be like past

waive years where even some of these states people never saw coming are coming on to the map. there are other states that are blue states in presidential years that have senate races that aren't being talked about now that i think could be competitive. >> iowa, minnesota, michigan. >> that's another factor. republicans are feeling pretty good about their governor's races. they feel good about the house and the senate. they feel good at the moment, it is only mid marnl. in 994, all those governors were winning, too. you can do some funny things with campaign finance -- >> there's lot of campaigns. democrats have really benefited in the past from gop candidates saying dumb things. >> you made a point on this show a few weeks ago how democrats are going to play affinity politics and go right toward women and minority voters. in new hampshire, there are four women on the federal -- on the ballot in new hampshire.

govern governor. they'll lean hard to go after scott brown. >> the primary problems can certainly manifest themselves again for republicans. in georgia they could certainly nominate someone who cannot win in a general election against -- north carolina also big problem for republicans. they could certainly leave some seats on the table. >> we've seen a bit of a verbal backlash. mitch mcconnell said to the "new york times," that noted conservative post -- where all conservatives communicate with the american people through the "new york times" -- we'll crush them. do we see any evidence on the ground any tea party challengers are in a position to win? >> lindsey graham down in south carolina has a couple of folks in that race who might challenge him but it doesn't look like it. he has a pretty good war chest there.

if you look at what happens so are far even in that texas race, john cornyn did pretty good down there in that senate race. no evidence yet that the tea party challengers -- >> mississippi seems to be the one that establishment republicans are worried about. the other one i'm watching is iowa because it is such a crowded republican primary field. if it does go to convention there is a -- >> even there, the new quinnipiac poll this week, the president with a 39% approval rating in iowa, the state that launched him to the presidency. that tells you he an his party have a problem. >> i think you saw that in florida. that's one of the reasons that she was doomed -- >> the president's numbers were down i think in the low 40s in terms of his approval ratings. >> the president is the key. if he can rise, dams may rise with him. at the moment it looks bleaker than pleek for the president's party.

a surprise top three in the republican 2016 field. then in this week he's installment of "politicians say the darnedest things," president obama says he's been unfairly maligned for -- wearing mom jeans. >> there was one episode like four years ago in which i was wearing some loose jeans, mainly because i was out on the pitcher's mound and i didn't want to feel confined while i was pitching. and i thinkive he's paid my penance for that. i got whacked pretty good.

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welcome back. our puzzle this week -- explores a perennial republican debate,

who is the next best heir to ronald reagan. a new poll shows a shift in gop thinking. rand paul, the freshman senator from kentucky at 16%. paul ryan, and rick perry rising to third at 11%. from a month ago, paul, ryan and perry are heading up. for the rest of the gop field, if you look at our numbers, they are either static or heading down. it is very early but you'd still rather go up than down. peter hanby, rand paul and ted cruz at it this week saying don't say you're the next ronald reagan. these two guys, both freshmen, both tea party guys, both friendly until this past week. what happened? >> i think both of these guys realize that at some point they're going to be playing in the same lane for the republican nomination so they have to create some space for

themselves. ted cruz spoke at cpac, actually a conference next door -- gave a foreign policy speech and gently tweaked rand paul saying we can't shy away from the world. rand paul has been walking this really fine line between being his father's libertarian and actually trying to appeal to a larger swath of republicans and make nice with the republican establishment. we saw him sort of straddle that this week talking about ukraine. first he put out sort of a milled ground statement that he could put out a more muscular statement. but again, one that's that's underscored to me is that these two are playing the same game. also they are not afraid to go at each other. you saw rand paul last year go after chris christie. >> playing in the same lane to a degree but i got from this that rand paul wants to force ted cruz to keep him in the tea party lane as rand paul tries to keep a slice of that. ted cruz goes off republicans, john mccain, mitt romney.

saying essentially we can't keep nominating who don't stand for anything. rand paul, i will remind anyone who thinks we'll win elections by trashing previous republican nominees or holding one self-out as some paragon in the mold of reagan, that's splintering the party. >> he wants to be the unifier. that's why he's made nice with mitch mcconnell who he's playing a pretty aggressive role to help him with a legal problem back home in kentucky which is what i spoke to him about last week, about whether he could run in both for the senate and the president at the same time in kentucky. he is trying to -- that's why we saw him speak at the republican convention for mitt romney even though his father was fighting over seating delegates at exact same time at the same convention. paul is trying to show is he not his father. that's why he's concerned. showing he can appeal to some

who may even consider themselves defense hawks. >> even democrats say this makes paul look a little bit more palatable because paul is trying to make cruz look a little too extreme. >> last year at cpac rand paul noted john mccain and lindsey graham -- he didn't use their names -- but he called them moss-covered republicans. the same man who's now saying ted cruz used his cpac speech to divide the party last year. secondly, there's been no more vivid example of rand paul's desire to move to the mainstream of the party than the ukraine episode. his statements before russia went into crimea was basically what he has long believed -- his father certainly believes -- which is folks in our party want to fight the cold war over again and -- effectively, leave them alone. his statements after russia went into crimea are so remarkably different. he's coming out with proposals

about what we can do about this. this really shows that he does not want to be pegged as some guy out there on the looney fringe. but marco rubio and ted cruz seeing an opening there -- excuse me. this is the first time after the nsa story, after the drone story, after syria last year where the republican base is not naturally aligned with rand paul and foreign policy. so you've got rubio and cruz taking advantage. >> while we have this debate in washington about who is the next ronald reagan -- the thing i'm struck by -- rick perry who was a laughing stock last time, he's rising up in our poll. can he make a stronger case? he's a governor from a big state. ronald reagan -- ran before. he's more optimistic. he's not attacking. >> and he's got those cool glasses. right? i think we sort of look back on the rick perry race and republican it for that terrible oops moment and sort of theorized that was his big

problem. but he had a big problem around immigration. it is not clear that that wouldn't play in the same way in 2016 that it played in 2012. >> i talked to more than one strategist working for potential republican rivals who have said to me -- i actually envy rick perry's space in this race because he is underestimated, he has run before, he's been governor, he will have been governor for 14 years. he has a zone her netwo e e er network. >> people talk about scott walker as the dark horse in the republican race. >> perry left a lot of friends behind in iowa. he flamed out but he left a lot of friends. so you're hillary clinton and you are thinking about running for president. you want to know, do the american people think you are strong, tough? look at these numbers. is she a strong leader? yes. is she tough? yes. can she manage government in yes. can she inspire confidence? yes. those are pretty strong numbers. look at you how she matches up against the current commander in chief. the american people think she's

tougher. she's stronger. she can manage government better and she inspires confidence more. part of that sun fair. the president's in office. she has the luxury of not being in office. i guess if you are in a mid-term year and you are having a bad year for president obama, it is proof it is hard to find a silver lining. >> those numbers are right right now but have not been touched by the millions and millions of dollars of advertising against her if she does in fact run again. >> when you look at those numbers and you're hillary clinton, do you puff up a little bit? >> remember what a big problem for her in 2008 was, they made her -- it was the 3:00 a.m. phone call candidate. she was the strong, tough commander in chief and that really didn't work well for her. her team was starting this line -- do we make her a historic first female candidate? >> for democrats, too, that poll sort of reflects democrats' disappointment with obama and looking forward to something else with hillary.

>> i think there are all of these super pacs are grappling with this idea how do you frame hillary clinton? ready for hillary. they had an event called "our movement." it was her voice, her story, our movement. they're going to try to frame her in that way. another poll suggested she would be a breath of fresh air. 50% said she would bring something new. that's pretty amazing. >> great question for the next two years -- does she run as a change candidate and sort of abandon obama or does she run for a third obama term or split the baby and do both. >> is the change agent just because she is a woman? >> we'll watch. american people always want something new. everybody stay with us. up next, tomorrow's news today. our reporters empty their notebooks including a curious road trip for a famous democratic woman not named clinton.

welcome back. each week we get you ahead of the curve with the. top political stories by asking our great reporters here at the table to share a nugget from their notebooks. ladies first. >> lot of national progressives focusing on wendy davis as somebody who can help turn texas purple but in texas, a lot of the attention is going on la dticia vande. she is a latina, getting support from republicans who are nervous that the person who could come out of the republican party primary would be too harsh in terms of immigration. so she's getting a lot of

attention down there. the castro brothers obviously very happy with this potential turning texas purple. >> two biggest names in politics in terms of raising money are obama and clinton but there is a third name not behind those two, senator warren from massachusetts. she has so far been raising money mostly in her home state and here in washington, d.c. but i'm told that in this month she's actually taken to the road, she's going to raise money for sherrod brown of ohio, and senator al franken out in minnesota. one of the first forays we're seeing her make. some buzz about her possibly running for president in '16. she told me she's not going to do that. >> they always say they're not going to do it, then they go to those very important states. curious. >> we talked about how the senate map is expanding out to blue states. watch for the air war begin to intensify there.

americans for prosperity will go pretty heavy out against mark udall in colorado next week. democrats are going to start to begin more heavily in these efforts to define these republicans as extreme, out of the mainstream and unelectable in these states. this is going to be sort of a shift in strategy in the coming weeks. >> no one loves that more than the tv stations. peter. >> louisiana governor bobby jindal has faded a little bit from the 2016 conversation. he was in new hampshire friday speaking at a fun st. patrick's day related event. bobby jindal quietly laying some 2016 groundwork. >> not interesting in running for president, ima's just talking to everybody i know to. one for more me. the. the immediate fallout from that florida special election we

have already seen a number of senior house democrats announce their retirements. i'm told in the next week to ten days look for two to three more. that's it for "inside politics." see you back here next sunday. catch our morning take each weekday from 7:30 a.m. eastern. "state of the union" with candy crowley starts right now. good morning. i'm candy crowley in washington and this is "sftate of the union." we're following two breaking stories, the disappearance of malaysia flight 3707 and the crucial vote in crimea on whether or not it will realign with russia. senator john mccain landed this morning in washington following a trip to ukraine and he will join us. now to the very latest on the search for 370. malaysian authorities say that search for the missing jetliner has entered a new phase.