time. and millions of people are bracing for outbreak of severe weather, including threats of tornadoes. there have been severe thunderstorm watch and warnings for oklahoma and kansas. later today, arkansas and missouri could see the worst of the weather. coming up in our 2:00 eastern hour, the latest on the canonization of two former popes today. we'll talk to carl bernstein, author of "his holiness" how former pope john ii wasn't a religious force but a political one as well. i'm fredricka whitfield. "fareed zakaria gps "s starts right now. welcome today in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. ukraine and asia, start with the two topics that have dom nated american foreign policy this week. first up, i'll ask the

president's former national security adviser, tom donnelly, what his intentions are in ukraine and whether the pivot is working. then, we'll look at the next big inter-nate crisis. perhaps the one you will read about in a few months, even. we have the maps and the experts on hand. also, what is the most important economic trend of the last three decades? there is better than even odds that it's you. i will explain. but first, here's my take. foreign policy commands attention when it's crisis management. a street revolt breaks out in egypt or libya or kiev and everyone asks, how should the president respond? these are important parts of america's role in the world, but they are essentially reactive and tactical.

the broader challenge to lay down a longer term strategy that e endures after the crisis of the moment. the obama administration has tried to do that with asia's strategy, but progress has been halting and incomplete. so for all its problems, the real threat to a serious asia strategy comes not from the administration but from congress and maybe the american public. in fact, the difficulties in the execution of the asian pivot raised the broader question, can america have a grand strategy today? obama's basic approach is wise and in many ways a continuation of u.s. foreign policy since bill clinton's presidency, including george w. bush. on the diplomatic front, it has two elements -- deterrence and engagement. all countries in asia as well as the united states seek deeper

relations with chine into and want to make sure that country does not become an expansionist regional bully. getting the balance between those two elements is hard to do and easy to criticize. there is, however, a broader aspect to asia policy, one that is constructive. at the center of this is the transpacific partnership. it would not only be the largest trade deal in decades if it happened involving most of asia's economies, perhaps including china, but it would strongly reinforce american tile rules about free and open trade worldwide. yet the president has not been able to get the fast track authority that makes it possible to negotiate such a trade deal. the democratic party, once the greatest champion of free trade, has turned its back on it. a sat shift in a once open and optimistic party. and in recent years, republican support for trade has also gotten much weaker.

america's military strategy in asia requires significant budgets, and these are under pressure from both sides of the aisle. public support for any type of ambitious, generous foreign policy is pretty low these days. the most worrying obstacle to a serious american strategy might seem at first to be a highly technical issue. the administration has proposed reform of the international monetary fund which congressional republicans are blocking. but reforming the agency is crucial to america's future global vote. let me explain. the imf governing board has long been dominated by the united states and europe. as asian countries have become a larger part of the government pie, the obama administration proposed their votes on the board. this mostly would take power away from europe, not the united states. and yet congressional republicans have held up this plan for three years, and they show no signs of being ready to pass it.

this issue has united asian countries from china indonesia and singapore seeing signs that the west will never let them share power of these institutions. and you know what? they have a point. after world war ii, the united states confronted soviet communism but it also built a stability world order by create many institutions that set global norms and shared power from the u.n. itself to the imf and the world bank. the urgent task is to expand these institutions to include the rising powers of asia. if washington does not do this, it will strengthen those voices in asia, especially in china, who say their countries should not try to integrate into a western framework of international rules because they will always be second class citizens, and they should, instead, bide their time and create their own institutions, play by their own rules and do their own thing. at that point, we will all

deeply regret that we did not let these countries into the club when we had a chance. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "the washington post" column this week. now, let's get started. of course, president obama couldn't concentrate completely on asia this week as the crisis in ukraine continued and even heated up. i wanted to delve into both of these issues and how to handle them. that is the kind of advice that tom donnelin used to give president obama. until nine months ago, he was president obama's national security adviser and one of the arctics of the asian pivot. pleasure to have you on. >> nice to be here. thank you. >> put, do you believe that putin could actually in some way invade eastern ukraine at some point? >> i think if the government is engaged in the destabilization

effort in ukraine, i think the russian view here is that to destabilize ukraine is superior to a successful ukraine in the west. i think they will continue to use leverage that they have to try to destabilize the situation and i think the job of the united states in the west is to support politically and economically the ukraine government to have the elections take place in may, to move forward and build a successful ukraine. a difficult task given that i think putin and his team and the russians are engaged in an express effort to destabilize through a variety of covert operations. >> anything about this surprise you? you spent a lot of time with president putin, to then hear him say, you know, bald facedly who these troops involved? i don't know who these guys are. >> >> i think it's unusual for a leader of a country to engage in bald-faced lying, i think it's unusual. it's an unusual thing to do,

frankly. and it does hurt his credibility. i think it's one of the reasons you've had tough reactions from europe, for example. >> how does this end? you say russia seems to want an unstable ukraine. it would be difficult, i think, for the west to totally stabilize it given how close it is to russia, how deeply penetrated ukraine already is, whether it's ukranian intelligence service penetrated by russians, ukrainian arm, eastern ukraine. where does this go? >> i think that where it goes in the short meeting terms are here. i do think our effort should be support for the ukraine government going forward here politically and economically, support and reassurance for nato allied and substantial increasing of the price for russian conduct. >> you would favor a third round of sanctions? >> if there is no effort to meet the commitments they made in geneva to defuse the situation, to have the militia stand down,

leave the buildings that they're occupying and engage in a political dialogue with authorities in kiev, if that doesn't happen, absolutely i think it makes sense to increase the price of russian conduct. >> a lot of people argue that the pivot has been well articulated, well conceived but fundamentally, badly implemented. that there isn't enough energy and attention on asia, there aren't enough substantive pieces to it, sort of good in theory but bad in practice. as the architect of the pivot, what do you say? >> i don't think that's accurate. of course the president, this week is in asia visiting all four countries. s we worked very hard on restoring our alliances and our alliances are in very good shape for a lot of different reasons. >> surely one of the things that strikes you is this rivalry between china and japan that has

never really abated, has gotten worse in many ways now because you have a stronger chinese government in a sense and one that's tougher, but also the rise of a japanese government that is quite tough, and some people would say nationalistic, wants to rearm in ways that japan has never done since world war ii. what do you make of it? >> a very tense situation. >> when you talk to leaders in both these countries the level of emotion here is very high, as between china and japan. and this is a problem. >> and they won't even talk to each other. >> exactly. certainly not at the political level. these are the second and third largest economies in the world. i think it's ultimately in the region's interests to have lower tensions but it's not there at this point. what the danger is here, of course, when you this level of emotion, when you have this level of nationalism on both

sides and you have both sides testing each other, you can have a mistake or miscalculation that can spiral to places you can't predict. that's the real danger. one encouraging note this week was that there was a naval conference that took place during the last week where the navies, including china, of the region agreed on a code of conduct for unanticipated encounters. that's the kind of thing we need to do to avoid a mistake or accident that can take place in situations like this. overall, though, all sides need to try to reduce tensions, which is why some of the conduct of the chinese was so troubling last fall when they dhaered this air zone unilaterally, but it raises tension, doesn't lower it and can result in negative consequences. >> tom, thank you for being on.

to discuss how the unanticipated accidents, motorcycle calculations and intentions could actually lead to the next international crisis, we'll come back with a map and experts to describe asia and the world when we come back. predibut, manufacturings a prettin the united states do. means advanced technology. we learned that technology allows us to be craft oriented. no one's losing their job. there's no beer robot that has suddenly chased them out. the technology is actually creating new jobs. siemens designed and built the right tools and resources to get the job done. salesgets up to 795 highwayal is the passamiles per tank.sel

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tom donelin talked about the tensions, the emotions, the nationalism all coming into motion. i want to talk about what kind of crises we can anticipate and

plan for. i asked two of the top experts that i know join me. robert kaplan is the chief geopolitical analyst and author of "the south china seas and the end of a stable pacific" and jeff dire, the foreign affairs correspondent for the financial times and the paper former bureau chief. he's an author of "the contest of the century," and that's geoff dyer. welcome. >> thank you. is it fair when we look at next big crisis, a crisis that could involve major powers to look at this part of the world you've been writing about, particularly the eastern south china seas? >> yes, it is burke a major crisis doesn't equate into a war. it equates into a nervous, anxious, more more /*

complicated world, fifth generation fighter jets that can easily create incidents that in turn could enable a crisis. in other words, this is a region that's going to be on the boil for years and years to come. >> there you can see the countries we're talking about, japan, china, the two richest countries in asia, but next to it lots of small countries that are many concerns. geoff, when you look at this, is it fair to say at the heart of what's going on, the motor that might drive a crisis, as china has gotten richer has become more expansive in its definition of what it considers its vital interests, what it wants to control in its region? >> absolutely. the last five years china's gone through an important transition saying, this our time. we've built up this interest in the last five years. ecan start making a claim and that's underlying all of the different tensions that come to

the fore in the last two or three years. >> china has had territorial disputes wall these other countries. interestingly, they solved most of the land ones, but it's the naval ones that seem to be still at issue. why is that? >> that's because what china wants to do eventually to the south and east china seas is what the united states did to the caribbean in the 19th and early 20th century. dilute american influence in west asia so that china could expand its continental land mass into the adjacent blue waters. the south china sea has the potential to make china into a great military power in the way the caribbean gave the united states domination of the western hemisphere. >> then you have the east china seas which is the area between china and japan, basically. >> yes. >> to me this is the most dangerous because it involves two very big, rich countries, the second and third largest economies in the world. and countries with huge defense

budgets. we saw one version of what could happen. a ship captain takes his boat into these waters. play out for us what you think could happen. >> the east china sea is a more acute problem for the united states because, frankly speaking, the united states will probably not go to the war to defend the philippines. it's a poor country but not a serious one like japan is. japan is a serious ally for the united states and on holding back japanese nationalism could be as much of a challenge for the united states in the future as chinese nationalism. what could happen is, don't think of navies as just great warships. the chinese love to use navies as fishing boats, coast guard vessels, chinese fishermen could lay claim to a rock that japan could try to intercept. you could have tit for tat that

could escalate into a major exchange. asian countries like to strike poses but it could escalate into something where neither side could pull back and you can have what's been forecast short, sharp war. >> and you can imagine some crisis of the kind bob is describing, and then neither side, the chinese nor the japanese, can't back down because they can't appear weak to their publics. >> absolutely. if you look at opinion polls in japan, you get polls of 90% and very similar figures in japan. remember, this is the second and third biggest economies in the world. this is not just two small countries. one of the underlying risks is you get people talking about this idea of a short, sharp war. and this danger sense you get from japan and china and maybe we can have this fight and it can be isolated and we can control it. but it's hard to control. it's hard to contain and it can easily spiral out of control.

that's one of the underlying risks as well. >> people thought that world war i would be a short war. >> they thought they would be home by christmas. >> what should the united states do? there is this balancing act that if it tries to support its allies, like the philippines, vietnam, it will get the chinese to feel like the united states is trying to encircle them. >> the united states needs to steer between two extremes. on the one hand, it has to prevent china from finlandizing, if you will, countries like vietnam and the philippines and malaysia. >> meaning that -- >> meaning that finland, because of its long land border with the soviet union during the cold war, didn't really have control of its own foreign policy. and china is going to seek to do that in countries of the south china sea. but on the other hand, the united states cannot allow vietnamese or filipino nationalism to drag the united

states into a military conflict with china given how important the bilateral relationship is for china and the u.s. for the piece of the world in the 20th century. >> so for the united states and china and japan and all the asian countries in this caldron, as you describe it, will be the next big policy we face in foreign policy. thank you. next up, if you are a woman, you might be an important part of the economic trend of the last 30 years. you will want to hear about it, in any event.

now for our what in the world segment. if you watch even just one episode of "mad men," it's clear that since the 1960s, women in the workplace have come a long way. >> men act like they want a secretary, but most of the time they're looking for something between a mother and a waitress. >> but new studies show they have a long way to go. women today make up about half the workforce, a big leap from the 1960s, the "mad men" era,

when they constituted about a third. but, for example, only 20 fortune 500 companies have women ceos. today women have made good gains but on average, they make 77 cents of every dollar a male counterpart makes. but most startling data on women in the workplace came out from a study from two left-leaning think tanks, the center for american progress and the center for economic and policy research. it turns out that the most important economic trend of the last 30 years might not be high tech, but rather, high employment of women. if women hadn't entered the work force by the millions over the last three decades, the study says, the u.s. economy would be about 11% smaller. the report, which was partially funded by the department of labor, found that if women worked at 1979 levels, the u.s. economy would have lost over

$1.7 trillion in economic output in 2012. that amount, $1.7 trillion, is roughly the gdp of canada. one way to see what a country looks like when women don't work so much is to look at japan. japanese women are amazingly well-educated, but for various cultural reasons, they do not enter the workforce and stay in it. and those who do struggle to break the glass ceiling, or the bamboo ceiling. goldman sachs estimates that if japan could increase the female employment rate, the country's labor force would expand by more than 8 million people and its gdp would grow by as much as 15%. that's significant for a stuttering economy with a rapidly aging population. it's probably why shinzo abe's growth strategy has been infused with womanomics.

last year he announced he wanted to support women so they could chine in the knee. it's not just japan. increasing women's employment rates around the globe could result in huge gains. if women worked the same as men in egypt, the country's gdp could grow by 34%. uae, 12%. germany and france, 4%. and even the united states could see 5% more growth. but let's be honest. women working has produced economic complications. a larger, competitive workforce has arguably kept wages from raising very much. the brookings institution says if you look at working age men, the real earnings of the median american male have decreased by 19% since 1970, for a variety of reasons. women working has also produced social complications regarding raising children. the hard harvard business review

conducted a study of american women who had left work to have children. 93% of them wanted to return to work, but only 74% of them managed to do so and only 40% were able to return to full-time jobs. the transformation of women's lives has been one of the great changes in history. it will take time to get it right and put in place laws and practices that make it work. perhaps this will be one of the tasks that hillary clinton takes on if she gets that new job everyone is talking about in 2016. up next, does president putin's pugilism represent a future of conflict? is that a good thing? i have a historian who will look into the future for us. i'm m-a-r-y and i have copd. i'm j-e-f-f and i have copd. i'm l-i-s-a and i have copd, but i don't want my breathing problems to get in the way of hosting my book club. that's why i asked my doctor about b-r-e-o.

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♪ war. what is it good for? those were the famous words sung by ed win starr as a protest in the vietnam era. it also makes the title for ian morris' book "war, what is it good for?" conflict and the progress of civilization from primates to

robots. i think morris' answer will surprise you. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me on the show. >> first, i've got ask you your book comes at an interesting time because people talk about putin and his tactics and strategy and talking about is this the new world or are we diluting ourselves? and the administration says, no, it's a throwback to the past. what do you make of it? is he the true face of the 21st century or a throwback? >> i think perhaps both at once, certainly a throwback. this is the way great powers have done business since the beginning of recorded history. but one of the great changes we've seen across history is people have used war less and less, particularly the last couple of generations, less and less, to solve their problems. >> is that clear particularly among the major states of the world there has been a decline in war? >> yes, i think so. what you see is this huge paradox, and strategists love saying everything about war is

paradoxical, but in a weird way, war has driven processes that have made the world a less violent place over the very long term. >> explain that. you're saying war makes peace. >> yes, which sounds completely insane. but the way it seems to have worked is, if you go back 15,000 years, the end of the ice age, and a farming begins, populations begin to grow very rapidly, and before that if two bands of hunters and gatherers, got into a fight with one another the losing band has the option of moving and hunting and gathering somewhere else. now, as a population starts going up that gets harder. so a new thing starts happening. the winnerers of wars start swallowing up losers and forming a bigger society. and as they do this, the people who run these societies figure out very quickly that the only way to hold societies together, to stay in power, is by

pacifying subjects, driving down the rates of violence and violent death. you want to get up and plow your fields, pay your taxes and so on. you don't want angry subjects killing each other. >> your saying if you look at say 1500, there were 500 small states in europe, all quarrelling with each other and going off to war. the creation of the large states, france, germany, austria, hundred ga ray, in a strange sense, subdued the level of violence because now there are only five or six of them? >> exactly, yes. there are fewer big powers fighting the wars, and the wars that are now being fought are often more violent than the earlier ones because the societies are bigger. but within the societies, the rate of violence goes down and down. people are not feuding with each other violently as long as they have a strong government. >> what about hitler? you discuss this in the book. >> yes. in fact, in the book i call it the what about hitler problem.

obviously, the argument of the book is the long-term effect, is a movement in this direction, this pressure on rulers over time to try to pacify their societies. not because the rulers are angels, but because its in their own interests. that's to assume everybody conforms to the norm. everybody you've got characters like hitler or stalin or mao, a long list of these guys who are doing inc. things that don't fit the pattern. the overall long-term effect is the people who behave sort of way off the path of rational behavior tend not to do very well in the long run. >> does this make you very hopeful about the future? does it make you very optimistic looking forward? >> i'll give you a yes and no on that. the no part is i think there is a number of reasons to think that the coming generation or so might be the most dangerous in the world. it might be a period as unstable to the run-up of the first world war -- >> you just burst my optimistic

bubble. >> armed with weapons worse than the cold war. there's reason to worry very, very much. but on the other hand, which i think the other hand -- >> wait, that's not what's changed. we've had these weapons for a while. >> we have, yes. >> what makes this period we're entering so dangerous? >> i would say what makes it so dangerous is that if current trends continue, it looks like the big force that i would say has made the world so secure in the last few decades has been the presence of the u.s. as a global cup. not to rule the world or anything like that, but to deter other governments from doing violent actions most of the time. i think we're entering a period when it's less obvious to other governments that the u.s. is in position to play -- to perform that deterrent role. and that, i think, really raises the risks, you know, not of someone saying, let's start a nuclear war. i think that's deeply unlikely. but if things perhaps spiraling

out of control but i remain optimistic that's not going to happen. i think what we learn from the story of human cultural revolution, while we can't wish war out of existence like the song suggests, we are looking to respond to changes in the pay-off, changes in the environment. and the environment is one that just makes large-scale wars really bad for everybody and that's why we've seen this decline. >> thank goodness we can end on an optimistic note. pleasure to have you here. >> thank you. next up, what's wrong with washington politics? some might say, where would you like to begin? my next guest has a diagnosis and prescription. peace of mind is important when you're running a business.

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not so with internet from the phone company. i would email the phone company to inquire as to why they have shortchanged these customers. but that would require wifi. switch to comcast business internet and get two wifi networks included. comcast business built for business. if i asked you what the biggest problem in the united states is, you would probably say partisan politics. we've heard time and again how there's gridlock in washington because obama and boehner won't talk or because the parties are so diametrically opposed, but my next guest would say the problem runs much deeper than that. phillip howard is a writer and reformer. on the latter front more than a

decade ago, he found a common good of bipartisan coalition that set out to restore nothing less than common stoens american government. author of a new book "the rule of nobody." explain what you see as the sort of central problem that has developed in american government? one of the things you've always said is that america is uniquely, perhaps because it's a society founded on law, has a reverence for law that has kind of gone into a kind of a warped place where laws are so detailed that nobody has any judgment. give a few examples. >> law's supposed to be a tool of democracy, instead, democracy does what it supposed to on, an autopilot. an example, special ed laws are very important passed in 1995 because we had a history of locking away disabled children. now that law has morphed into

using 25% of the budget for this country. there is no money for gifted children, no money for pre-k education. is that the right balance? no one's even asking the questions. these laws take a life of their own. >> the administrators don't have any leeway to kind of use judgment. >> right. no room for judgment or using -- in 2009 we had $80 billion stimulus plan. and the point of the plan sold by president obama was to rebuild america's infrastructure. they came out with a five-year report recently where i tried to find how much was used for rebuild infrastructure in this country. it turned out only 3% was used rebuild america's transportation infrastructure because no one, not even the president of the united states, has the authority to approve the most obvious rebuilding jobs. we're talking about just fixing up an old bridge. >> because you would have to waive certain environmental regulations or labor -- >> yes.

>> there's all that stuff sort of written into law that no one has the judgment -- >> we have all these procedures. you have to do this review, if somebody complains you have to go there. if they don't think it's fair it goes into litigation. the density of the system of law can hardly be overestimated. literally you go in, you want to fix something, you've got to send out notices to if a bridge in new jersey, send out notices to native-american tribes all over the country to ask them permission. you had the law required them to do a survey of historic buildings within a two-mile radius when the project wasn't touching any buildings. the law is piled high with literally millions of requirements like that that prevent anyone from actually moving forward and doing the job. >> so one of the things i liked about this book is that you have a series of constitutional amendments that you proposed and the first one is the 20-year amendment would propose a

. >> right. and so congress is never going to go back and clean up all of these laws because it takes anything away from any special interest. so i think the only solution is to have a constitutional amendment that says every 15 years, any program with a budgetary impact must expire and congress doesn't have the authority to reauthorize it until an independent commission has actually given a report, made recommendations, and we've had a chance for a public debate because right now the government -- democracy is like a run away train. >> and as a lawyer, you have won the 31st amendment which is what everyone talks about when they come from outside of america, which is the ability to sue people recklessly in america. >> yes. we have this crazy idea. again, it's with no one in charge. nobody is in charge of the courtrooms either. we have this idea that anybody should be allowed to sue for anything, as if suing was an act of freedom. it's not an act of freedom. it's an act of state power

coming down to a verdict, the sheriff will take your home away. so what has happened in this country, because of fear of litigation, teachers will no longer put their arms around a crying child, and review statements running tens and thousands of dollars because of the potential litigation that happens. >> so what is the solution? >> the solution is, judges have to make rulings of law at the beginning of cases about whether this claim complies with law. including social norms. if you allow somebody to bring a lawsuit because a child fell off a seesaw, all of the seesaws will disappear. it doesn't matter what happens in the lawsuit. someone has to make a ruling as to whether seesaws are a reasonable risk on behalf of society. it's got to be a ruling of law. if the legislature is not doing it, the judge has to do it. >> i think in a way the book is quite hopeful because what you're saying is that the problem is not that our

bureaucrats are horrible, terrible people. the problem isn't that our politicians are heartless. they operate in a system where they have responsibility and in a sense if you free them up to use good judgment and commonsense, things will work better? >> absolutely. it's a problem of institutional design. we are paralyzed by design right now. you can't run a society with literally hundreds of millions of words of law. so if you actually freed it up, not get rid of law, not get rid of regulation, but make it into more of an open corral, there is a place for the citizens to say, what is the right thing to do. that's how democracy is supposed to work. >> philip howard, best of luck on this quest. >> thank you. up next, why some in europe still live by the boundaries of the last cold war. this will really surprise you. [ male announcer ] if you suffer from a dry mouth

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thousands of mourners gathered in mexico city to bid farewell to miguel marquez this week, the author best known for his novel, "100 years of solitude" and my favorite "love in the time of cholera." that brings me to my question. who was the only head of state or government to bwin the nobel prize in literature? benjamin disraell, theodore roosevelt, winston churchill or vaclav havel. philip howard has been trying to explain how a few changes in the way that government works would

make it more effective if only people listened. now you can by buying this book. now for the last look. pundits between russia and ukraine is a symbol of a new cold war. there's been much talk about old dividing lines. russia has been accused of building a new berlin wall. putin says he doesn't want another iron curtain. but did you know that those old cold war boundaries are dictating lives today? here's how. straddling the border between the czech republic and germany, when that was between capitalist germany and czechoslovakia, there were electric fences. a large herd of deer was split apart. there was satellite tracking to follow the movement of 100 red

deer. 50 in germany and 50 in the czech republic. the land is open for migration but the new generation of deer still respect the boundaries of the iron curtain. according to the scientists who led the project, biologically it would make sense for the mountain range to be the natural barrier for a population of deer. not this individual fence. but mothers pass on a sense of where it is to go. the electrified fence was a no-go and these habits live on a generation later. it can take a lot longer to breakdown barriers than to put them up. the correct answer is c. while 25 heads of state have won the nobel peace prize, winston

churchill won in 1953. if you guessed israeli, by the way, he was, indeed, a novelist but lived before the prize was established so he couldn't have won it. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. hello, everyone. i'm fredricka whitfield. a firestorm of controversy surrounds racist remarks allegedly made by the long-time owner of the l.a. clippers. now donald sterling is the focus of an nba investigation. so what punishment could he face? we've got that and the latest reaction from the sports world coming up. angry, frustrated, and demanding answers, the families of passengers on board missing malaysia airline flight 370 have a new target. what response have they received from boeing so far? we'll take a look. and a ceremony unprecedented in the history of the catholic church. two