is surprising in politics these days. imagine a restaurant getting half a star on yelp. then imagine people being surprised when people get fired. that's congress. then cnn's congressional producer. predicted this was going to happen. yesterday he expected to win and he would see a cnn van in his drive way tonight. i think he is right about that. >> br >> brian, thank you. we are back with tonight's news. it is n a stunning upsetteric cantor lost to his tea party opponent in the primary. number two republican in the house. the man much of the gop regards as the most conservative in the leadership. the man thought to be next in line to be speaker defeated by dave brat, economics professor at randolph macon kol j outside richmond. tonight some of the best minds in politics are here to break it all down.

dana bash, mark presson and gloria borger. dana, what happened to night? >> what happened to night is this was a surprise of epic proportions. this is a town where we are right now, that doesn't get phased by much. but everybody i'm talking to is numb. is numb from the shock. because even the challenger didn't really think he was going to win. he said, joking to our deidre walsh that there would be a cnn van pulling up in his drive way. but he didn't really mean it. at the end of the day, eric cantor and people that support him in general election campaigns didn't go out into the primary, didn't go out and to vote. the money he had, $5 million war chest, couldn't beat the $300,000 war chest of his unknown candidate because money can't buy enthusiasm. >> mark, how broad does the fall-out from this go? >> very far.

the local implication says that we will see a new congressman from a district north of richmond. national implications are new majority leader in congress. a new lineup of potential successors for john boehner when he decides to leave as house speaker and of course we have final two years of the obama presidency. right now of course he doesn't get along very well with the house republican leadership. you have to expect, given tonight of what we saw, don, house republicans would become scared. tea party will become more em boldened and less done on capitol hill, don. >> gloria, after his loss, eric cantor said this tonight. >> what i have set out to do and the agenda i said we were about, we want to create a virginia and america that works for everybody. and we need to focus our efforts as conservatives, as republicans, on putting forth our conservative solutions so

that they can help solve the problems. for so many working middle class families. that may not have the opportunity that we have. >> gloria, how will this defeat be? how is it for him importantly, you think? >> i think it must be so difficult. i mean, he did not expect to lose. i think he knew when he was booed at a republican congress in virginia the other weekend that something was going on. but it is very hard to poll in these primaries. the committed come out, the base of the party come out, and i think that cantor clearly did not expect this. as dana reported earlier in the evening, he was offered money by the chamber of commerce. he didn't take it because he had $5 million in the bank. i was told tonight, a republican strategist said to me, quote, it is measuring the drapes is never a good strategy. i think lots of people anticipated that he could become the next speaker of the house. i think what this means and

shows us is the perils of leadership right now in the republican party. think cantor could likely be replace bid a member of the tea party. and by wait, when cantor, as a leader, he was the tea party's leader in the republican leadership. you see how fleeting these things are, don. but then they thought they he was a turn coat because he supported ending the government shutdown. and he supported a part of immigration reform. that they didn't like. and so you know, can you lose that banner in a nano second. and he did. and he didn't even know it. >> okay, here's the question. is it possible we are reading way too much into this an he just did not work hard enough and he, you know, he really just underestimated his opponent. >> i think so. i don't know what these guys think. i think that lindsay graham won tonight with 60% of the vote. and that lots of people i've been e-mailing with are saying

to me, look, this is about eric cantor. the fact that he didn't have a grass roots organization, that people thought he he was divorced from his district, that he cared more about the speakership. >> dana? >> yeah, that's true. and i think that the lesson is that so many of these incumbent republicans that we've seen win and beat back to the tea party so far this year, have done so bu because they've seen what happened to people in years past who didn't pay attention, didn't take the threat seriously, didn't take the fight hard and go home more often and work harder in their district or states. eric cantor didn't do that. they were confident they would beat their challenger. to gloria's points about the peril's of leadership, one of the things that eric cantor has been trying to do in recent years is take on the mantle of leadership in the party and try to expand the party. that doesn't play well with activists. they don't want to hear about expanding the party.

i just went back and found an interview that i did with eric cantor six months ago. i asked him about something that i heard he said to his own rank and file after the shut down. he said, we have to stop eating our own. kind of ironic. >> i was thinking about that, because eric cantor was one of the most, if not the most, conservative. you say, it's fleeting. mark preston, where does this leave john boehner? >> certainly leaves him in a position where he doesn't have eric cantor -- look, eric cantor, let's say this, was an great ally of don boehner. at least he had eric cantor there. that separated him from the tea party masses. i think it's important to note that ari eric cantor lost this tonight. the tea party didn't win this race. however, in politics, perception is reality right now. and what you will see, and we've seen this already in the past couple of hours, we are all

getting e-mails, from tea party organizations, across the country, even chris mcdaniel running in two weeks, he is taking credit for this. what you will see is an em boldened departy. you will see a spin-off don, with more activity on that side. kw question is, can it sustain until next november. >> even the tea parties weren't involved. they didn't think they add shot in unseating eric cantor. i would like to find out his favorability ratings going into this. if the base of the party didn't like him, the base of the republican party, then that explains a lot of it. >> this is also a testament to the power of conservative radio. it is still very, very strong. laura ing gram, don, i've been following her tweets for several weeks. the fact that she has been trying to gin up the grass roots in that virginia district. went down there, had a rally herself, you can't underestimate

that. >> tomorrow, con going on down there? gre congressional democrats, you want to take a gander what the they will be saying. >> on one hand, sending out press releases and tweets saying the republican party has been overtaken by the tea party. shows you how right wing the republican party has become. so they are crowing about this. on the other hand they anervous. what this means, as far as immigration is concerned, republicans will just run away. because they're going to be afraid of -- they are going to look at what happened at eric cantor and say, that could happen to me. tonight, senator chuck schumer of new york sent out something that said the republican party has to follow lindsay graham who also won his primary tonight because he is someone who can work with the other party reerj than eric cantor, who be with you know /* know, who couldn't. >> gloria, excellent point you bring up p.

that speaks to what we were saying before, which is this isn't necessarily about immigration or about a specific topic. it is about lindsay graham winning his primary because he was very aggressive in doing so. went home a lot. mid sure that field was clear from people who could actually beat him. he paid attention. eric cantor, not so much. >> mark, if you want to get in with these ladies, you work in the office with them everyday in washington. >> yes, he does. >> he's not shy, don. >> i know. thank you guys, appreciate it. to gloria, dana, mark preston as well. what may be the define, issue of this primary season? immigration in the front line of the battles of arizona. gary tuchman has more on that. >> don, i can tell you here in the state of arizona we have an influx of children crossing the border. just over the last two weeks since memorial day. also, mothers with small babies. why they're doing this, we don't know exactly. what they telling us is that central american countries like

guatemala, lhonduras, el salvador. mothers are telling us this he want out of there. they want their children to be safer. they have family members here, it is a safer place to be. we know it is known by those people, those groups, that it is easier to stay in the united states when you're a child or mother with a child. they are treated much differently. the children coming here alone are taken, for the most part, to a border patrol station in arizona p. they are flown to three different military facilities in california, oklahoma and texas. it is then decided what to do with the children. most likely they will end up in the country if they have family here. the mothers, a different story. mothers and babies are told you can stay in the country for now. they are taken to greyhound bus stations. they are not given money or food, they are to make their own arrangements to where their family is. they don't speak english. never out of honduras. they are at a bus station from

tucson, going to new york, memphis, los angeles. they have no idea how big the country is. some bus rides are four days. they are on the buses all across america. going to their families. they are supposed to register when they get to their families p. they will end up staying in the country too. but they can go to their relatives now. nrs. >> why are they coming in such numbers now. >> this remind me a lot of exactly 20 yars ago. 1994. when we had an influx. hundreds and hundreds of cuban rafters, leaving cuba, on raft, to the united states. it becomes a crescendo. everyone hears about it, they start doing it. that's what is happening now. in the american countries, so violent, and they are told because they are coming from there, they are mothers, children, it is easier to stay here. it so good time. their neighbors are doing it so more people do it. no one knows how to handle the

situation if the situation is more dire and more children come, they will run out of space to put the children. it is not clear how the federal government and how state governments will handle this. >> gary tuchman, thank you very much. i want to bring in scotty hughs, news director of tea party news network, joining me skype. also, leslie sanchez. thank you both for joining us. leslie, first to you. let's talk about this immigration issue. are we overplaying this immigration issue is it really significant in what happened with eric cantor, defeat of eric cantor? >> i certainly think it has a part to play. there is probably three parts. one is establishment fatigue. another is, there may have been miss chief in the fact that you're here, that we're seeing, excuse me, that there was heavy turnout in strong democratic precincts. and democrats can openly vote here. you dont know if maybe there was miss chief on that side.

on the ib issue of immigration refom, eric cantor had two sides. pro immigration reforl and then against amnesty. you can't be inconsistent like that. it is very evident that it causes frustration among voters. you saw case in point with senator lindsay graham who took a very strong position. stood boldly in relationship and made tea party challenges. have you to be consistent on this. that's the underlying issue. >> scotty? >> some people might be surprise bed dave brat winning. reet alt is that i'm not surprised thatter kangtor lost. he lost complete connection with the people in the seventh district of virginia. america is in a jobless recovery. people are trying to figure out how to put food on their table. deal with the rising cost of health care and eric cantor is out there trying to talk about a pathway to citizenship on immigration. you can't compare the race tonight as the same one that

happened in south carolina. lindsay graham was going up against three tea partiers. here in virginia, one establish and one conservative. we see that conservative wins which means we have the stronger voice within the party. >> always a lesson under it. scotty to you first, what's the lesson for the republican party? >> simple. the republican party has to respect and sit there and mrs. under the power is in the grass roots conservatives. we are a party together. and united with will stand. if they divide us, we will fall. you have to realize you can sit there and continue to battle us or sit there and work with us and we will be able to have a real defeat when it comes to the real elections we care about, which is the general in 2014 and white house in 2016. >> leslie, if you're a conservative incumbent on capitol hill, are you looking over your shoulder? >> absolutely. any incumbent should be doing

that. there is not an end to the establishment fatigue we're talking about. grass roots elements and frustration is very pal atable. members should know about that. but we cannot falsely believe there is some blanket solution when it comes to immigration reform. there is a lot of consistency and the fact that people will come together on border enforcement and securit. come together and penalizing employers who have undocumented workers, it is getting into the weeds of citizenship and rellization where republicans and democrats will clash and conservatives and con srvetive voices in here have to work together to get this done. oer otherwise we are empowering the president to not take action and have ramifications or take unilateral action. >> in the short time left, scotty, is this not so much about the tea party and more about eric cantor and eric cantor just wasn't up to the job? >> no. >> and he happened to go up against a tea party person?

>> the key is he did just happen to be going up against a tea party person. he does believe in what a majority of americans are screaming for. we can say this a victory for the tea party but the reality is, we're a movement. not party ourselves. we don't count wins and loses. we are at the table, driving the conversation, driving legislation. that's where we're winning. >> thank you. i appreciate both you. that that's it for us tonight. "ac 360" in just one minute.

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(train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. we continue to follow the biggest upset of the year. eric cantor. first more breaking news from outside portland, oregon where authorities just finished briefing reporters on the latest school shooting. there was another one today. for the second time in less than a week, we have seen pictures like these. terrified students evacuating a school. knowing it is an drill. knowing a killer, possibly a fellow student, almost always male, is back in the building. for the second time in a week parents waited for word, waited for the worst. these parents were on national

tv when the call came. >> is that chris? >> yes. >> oh, thank god. >> hello. >> good. >> that's what we were waiting for. >> that's okay. that's what we were sine saying. i'm glad to hear from you. all right. are you almost ready to get on the bus to come down here or what's the deal? >> i can breath. >> a lot of parents can breath. and gunman at reynolds high school, won't be naming, whose puck tours we won't show, killed one student before reportedly killing himself. the fact this could have been much, much worse takes nothing from the outrage that it happened at all or happened yet again and again. reynolds high today. seattle pacific last week. you are looking at 74 school shootings since sandy hook elementary. ft. myers, florida a few weeks

after sandy hook. to troutdale oregon today, 74. president obama spoke about it today and he did not mince words. >> we are the only developed country on earth where this happens. and it happens not once a week. and it's a one-day story. there is no place else like this. the united states does not have a monopoly on crazy people. it's not the only country that has psychosis. and yet, we kill each other in these mass shootings at rates that are expoen in recally higher than any place else. what's the difference? the difference is these guys can stack up a bunch of ammunition

in their houses and that's sort of par for the courtstsetss. the country has to do some soul searching about this. >> so what is the latest that you're hearing? >> we have just heard a confirmation of the victim in this case. emilio hoffman, 14 years old, freshman. we happened to talk to students who knew him. they say he was an amazing kid. that anyone would have been lucky to know. that's how they put it. when they talked about emilio hoffman. just a young guy in his first year of high school. we have also heard the sheriff's department is not, anderson, releasing the name at this point of the shooter. we do know that he was found, his body found, in a bathroom. we know the shooting now took place inside the gym in the locker room to be very particular. this is a community that has all shown up here, all of the

families came to this parking lot waiting to hear word of their student. shaken, scared, worried at least one of those family's students is not coming home alive. anderson? >> i understand. you spoke to an eyewitness. what did he tell you? >> yeah, brendan block. a kid that loved his school. enjoyed sports. sitting right outside of the gym. and this is what he heard. >> we heard a lot of loud bangs. at first we didn't even jump. we thought it was fireworks or something. and we see one of the teachers run out of the building with more shots, like the sound going off. and he kept running right by us. then, right after that, another teacher came out, asking if we heard fireworks. we said it was mr. rispler. and then i went in to look at where he was running from and there was just other students standing around asking what happened. all kind of fast. >> now, you heard him mention

mr. rispler. he is a coach and teacher. he was graze had by a bullet but is okay. there are a lot of questions asked and anger is growing about yet another school shooting. >> appreciate it. sarah, wi want to go back to th upset in virginia. cantor losing to brat. senior political analyst david gergen is also joining us. john king said earthquake, major gop establishment. money manneric cantor loses primary. would you agree with that, earthquake. >> i think the most significant pry maury we have seen all year. anderson, yes. this many will be an earthquake. he was one of the most innovative thinkers. he seems to be in line to be

speaker. in his efforts to push for immigration reform, and earlier efforts to lift the debt ceiling, i think he has is going to send shock waves through the republican ranks. look at the price he paid for doing things the great majority of americans support. >> it is fascinating, gloria borger. i'm looking at a washington post article from june 6th where they were saying a cantor internal poll claims 34-point lead over opponent brat. how did they get it so wrong? >> it is hard, anderson, in the -- or any area to get an accurate read. one would think you would be a little more accurate than they were, given the fact they were sending money on polling. as we were discussing earlier, you know, if you're not there and you don't have a grass roots organization and you're not on

the ground to see these things percolate, then you have a problem. and this is the advice they give all of their candidates, which is, keep in touch with the district. and one of the down sides of being a leader is that there are a lot of other things going on in your life. even though he is only, you know, couple hours away, or less than that, this was clearly a problem. as we were talking about earlier, immigration is a huge issue. if i were in the white house right now, i would take a look at the results of this. because eric cantor expressed some interest in the dream act. and i think i would see the white house saying you know what? there is no way we're going to get republicans to go along with this. so i do think it sends shocks to so many different directions it is hard to count at this point. >> you know, david gergen you talked about the impact in the republican party for others, even democrats in close races in red states for the white house

looking to make deals moving forward on immigration and other issues. what do you see the impact? >> anderson, the democrats running in red states have to be worried. the stress and the anger that you see in the populace upsets, like in new york, with -- de blasio as mayor, i do think it is worth pointing out anderson, that the establishment candidates have done well in the primaries. and there is a sigh of relief in the republican establishment, if there is such a thing, that the -- it seems to be dying down. this sends a message, the tea party is in force and if you're not careful you can get knocked off.

>> there is also that race in mississippi. with cochran. by and large, like mcconnell and others, the establishment figures have done better than they would have done in previous cycles. but this is an outlyer and will cause people to consider. i think to go back to the earlier point, the immigration reform makes it even harder, it is really difficult to get the republicans to come along and put together a bipartisan bill. >> 90% of the vote now counted. you saw the other percentages there, about a 10,000 vote difference. 6,655 vote different, 55% to 45%, 10%. dana bash for those on capitol hill who are watching, i'm wondering if you're already hearing feedback, even for speaker john boehner, what is the impact? >> i haven't heard yet from anyone from the speaker's house

but i just got a text from a republican lawmaker who said none of us on our side saw this coming. lots of ramifications for the gop. none of them good. this as you can imagine from not a conservative republican but one of the few remaining moderates. one thing i can share with you, i got an e-mail from somebody who is a movement conservative who says he is at a dinner with other, he calls it the who's who of conservative and tea party leaders who said that they are as you can imagine cheering, in fact, one, brent bozell, said that eric cantor's loss tonight is an apocalypse for the gop establishment. the grass roots is in revolt and marching. certainly any kind of sense that they got from all the losses, real big losses except for texas that they have had this year as i said wiped off. completely wiped off.

because nobody expected to get the number two republican in the house to be knocked off by his own party. i was just trying to think when the last time anything like this has happened if it happened. obviously we've seen leaders in each party in congress get defeated by somebody in the opposite party. tom daschle was a democracy majority leader. tom foley was the house speaker. but i don't remember somebody getting beat by his or her own party this high up in the leadership. it is stunning, everybody is shocked. that is why we're getting so few statements, because nobody thought it would happen. >> well, what does the apocalypse look like, what does it actually boil down to? >> i think in the short term it will send the republican party which i think in the past couple of months as we've seen the primary results for the most part go for the establishment figure or the incumbent.

it looked like the civil war in the party was starting to perhaps die down a little bit. this throws this right back into play. completely, and i think into chaos. people in congress, republicans who were maybe trying -- starting to inch back towards compromised positions on things like immigration will be scared to do so. because they will be worried about getting beaten by somebody from the right. if eric cantor can get beaten by somebody from the right why can't a rank and file republican without the resources, if that happened to them, it is going to throw all of the ideas of any kind of reaching out across the aisle over the next -- certainly over the next few months, but maybe even at the end of the obama term it will throw it all up in the air. >> we're told that brat will be speaking soon, we'll bring it to you live. that should be interesting to say the least. we'll be right back after a quick break with continuing

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i would. switch to comcast business internet and get the fastest wifi included. comcast business. built for business. welcome back, if you're just joining us, hold onto your hat, a political earthquake has just happened. house minority leader eric cantor losing to the opponent, dave brat, we're expecting to hear from before brat shortly. presidential candidate newt gingrich. joining us on the phone. what do you think? >> i think this is about a scale heat earthquake. i think it will shock the washington establishment and will shock the house republicans. it certainly upsets all of the

balance of power inside the republican conference. and combined with the results recently in mississippi it sends a pretty strong signal that well, money matters. voters may matter more. and people need to have a little bit of respect for the right of the voter to have attention paid to them and the right of the voter to throw people out if they're not happy with them. and eric cantor is a very smart man, this is not an anti-cantor statement. he is hard working, but it appears that a very large part of his constituents were not happy and he was not paying attention to them. that is the message, members who pay attention, members who listen to the folks are able to ultimately do very well. that people who think somehow that money and consultants are a substitute for grass roots paying attention i think always run a risk. >> to echo that, mr. speaker, a tweet from roll call from

donnelly, saying this race, dave brat spent thousands. >> sure, and this is a classic mistake of the washington consulting class which i frankly am deeply hostile to, they managed to convince eric to run negative ads against a man who was totally unknown. i have not seen the analysis yet, but i will bet you more of the name identification came from eric cantor's ads than came from his own activities. and that is just plain malpractice on the part of the consultants. >> they were saying that cantor was maligning him, and calling him a liberal even saying a lot of things that eric cantor were saying in ads were flat out

wrong. >> i just think in the country at large there is a growing exhaustion with negative politics and negative attacks. again, eric cantor had a great record and was an extraordinarily successful member of congress. he had a ton of things to campaign on. and i admire greatly what he has done over the years and i don't think people should react that this is a right versus left. this is an out of touch, not paying attention and then having your consultants do two or three really stupid things. any time you can out-spend two to three times, you have to assume there was something flawed about your campaign. >> and there are some that suggest he could be a write-in candidate for murckowski. do you think that could happen? >> look, eric is a very smart guy and a very competent guy. he has to decide what is his future? and if he wants to take a gamble in a write-in campaign that is certainly possible. but he has to be careful not to look like a spoiled sport. you know, i lost twice on the way to becoming speaker of the

house. bill clinton lost the governorship on the way to the white house. you know, sometimes you have to take time off and say to the voters i hear you, i respect you. this is not a 10 or 12 percent margin. this is a fairly substantial margin. and sometimes you're better off to take a deep breath, saying maybe i need to take a year off, come home, do some teaching. and then he would be a candidate for either governor or senator in the future. and nobody should estimate that eric cantor has a great future in politics, but maybe it is not the last-minute desperation of becoming the write-in candidate. he's got to make that decision. i would be a little skeptical given the size of the margin and given the fact that every tea party group in the country would pile on in that fight in a way that would be very challenging

for eric. >> mr. speaker, what does this mean for speaker john boehner? >> well, first of all boehner did the right thing. he went back home. and took seriously his opponent just as mitch mcconnell did his. he spent time at the early. and ran a very steady, constant low-key campaign. and the folks at home said you know, i respect you. my experience for 20 years in congress, i had very close races and as you know i was always willing to take risks and stand out in public and do things that were right and take the consequences. my experience is if you went home and had town hall meetings, over time people came to respect you even if they disagreed on one or two issues. i predict that lindsey graham will be proof of this in south carolina. he has done exactly the right things and worked himself into a position in the last couple years. i may not agree with him all the time but i agree with him enough.

that is a very important part of this process and frankly i'll always be reminded. talking about secretary clinton's new book today and the fact that she lost in 2008. and she also experienced this feeling. in the end the voters get to decide. it is not the money or the pacs or the consultants. it is one of the healthiest things about america. i talked to john boehner who has been at this for a long time as a state legislator and congressman. i suspect he is saying he will do everything to help eric cantor, and will get a good launch if he decides to go on to something else. but that is the american process. we are subordinate to the american people. and life will go on. house republicans will reorg niz themselves. for they will find a new majority leader and things will turn out to be all right a year from now. >> and for those who want compromise on things like immigration reform does this make that harder to come by?

>> well, it makes it more complicated but it means you also have to go home and explain it. i think this is legitimate. i get frankly pretty sick of the washington elites telling us we should run over the american people. if you can't explain what you're doing you should go home and quit your job. i believe you -- i ran as you know, for president by taking a very strong position and i got no backlash on the right because i was able to explain it in a common sense way that they were comfortable with. but it does mean any time you want to take a position which is at the margin of your constituency you had better quadruple the time you spent in town hall meetings. so people relax and get comfortable and feel they have a chance to really push you and challenge you. if you're comfortable, the two key rules, cheerful, persistence

and listen, learn, help and lead in that order. if you do those, you can carry your district a long way. >> and for those watching and listening particularly those in the obama administration have things just gotten harder for them? >> well, it may be harder in a way they may not fully appreciate yet. this country is angry. angry about washington, about terrorists released, angry about obamacare, angry about the economy. and if anything, republicans are under pressure because they're not seen as tough enough. not because they're too soft. and the democrats need to understand. they're going to be running this fall against an enormous headwind. and the president has only made that headway worse and increased the likelihood of a republican tsunami. and this is a reminder these tsunamis can emerge. they almost always don't emerge before september 15th. and when they emerge you're just riding a wild wave. and i think the odds are even money now you're going to see a tsunami this fall.

>> wow, speaker newt gingrich, thank you for your time. also joining us is chief national correspondent john king. also "politico's" jake sherman. let me start with you. you're there. what is the mood there? what has it been like? >> well, immigration reform protesters just stormed the room which has little effect because cantor has already left and he has lost the race. but this was stunning to cantor supporters who had been telling me, i heard the story a couple of months ago they were laughing me off when i started to write about it as a serious challenge. and cantor was saying about 60%, but using those metrics he got shallacked. and he had asked a reform bill to stop insider trading that didn't have sharp enough teeth. and was accused of supporting so-called amnesty. but this regards politics not

-but this up ends not only policy in virginia but leadership that is now going to be in a complete state of flux in the middle of election year. >> john king, i wrote a tweet on the air earlier from you saying you talked to one gop money man who said this is an earthquake. someone else referred to it as they decided not to turn out tonight, that is what happened. he spent money on television and a lot of money on direct mail and radio.

he spent a lot of money on direct mail and radio. and yet he could not turn his voters out today. so there is a flip side you have to study, too. why didn't his folks come out. >> they will study that. they are studying it saying the tea party is taking full control of the republican party. again, i would agree with speaker newt gingrich to a degree. if this is proof and we'll get another test from mississippi in the runoff down there. and the conservative base as we get closer to november is getting more active and agitated. this will shock the house republicans first. and everybody with stakes in november will spend time scratching their heads and studying it. >> john, have you been able to kind of bear down and look at turnout results and where areas turned out, which is always your specialty on these kind of nights? have you been able to do that to get a sense of where cantor's supporters, whether they did turn out and why they stayed home?

>> i have not been able to do that with the level of detail that i'll be able to do by tomorrow night just because of how the results came in. and the technology available to me tonight. but at first glance i'm getting from folks as i reach out to republicans asking them what happened is that you have more of what i'll call the more suburban traditional establishment republican voter not turning out. and more of the -- the non-conventional republicans coming out. again, if you look at the numbers this is a very low turnout, and eric cantor simply got caught by surprise. not just eric cantor, if we watch the other races again we'll watch the mississippi race as an example. we see a number of races, other republicans targeted by the tea party. the chamber of commerce, that didn't happen in virginia because they thought it was locked up. the surprise of this is what makes it interesting and what takes you back to 2010. when some of these tea party victories literally came out of the blue.

the tea party is on our map now, so we're studying. mr. brat was written off as okay, nice try, give it your best run but it's not going to happen. yet he shocked everybody tonight. speaker cantor and boehner, and will shock democrats as well as they try to study what are we missing? you ask any smart democrat this morning if they talked about eric cantor losing, they would have laughed at the republicans would have done. they will try to figure out is this isolated. or is it the beginning of something you nee d to track from now until november. >> and again, eric cantor spent $5.4 million on this race. brat spending $200,000. everyone stick around, we'll be right back, more ahead.

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again, tonight, huge news, eric cantor, going down in the primary, dave brat, winning. back with politico's dave sherman and eric cantor has already spoken, he has not spoken for very long. >> he spoke for about five minutes and basically thanked

his family. it was a great honor and talked about his agenda. i just add from john's points earlier about the surprise. it was a huge surprise. and i think that one of the elements that played in to his district is that brat played on the fact that cantor was in leadership and spends a lot of time fundraising around the country. well, there is some of that anti-incumbent leadership that dave brat played in on. >> it is something as with compromise, brat was able to use against cantor. >> and what we have seen emerge among grass roots conservative, not just tea parties. but to call them tea party republicans and give them that label, you have two choices. are you a governing conservative like john boehner and eric cantor you do try to cut the

best deals with president obama or with senate democrats. or are you a ted cruz, more of a rand paul opposition conservative? more of a parliamentary position, where you think you're supposed to fight almost everything. mr. brat tonight wins running pretty much the campaign know matt bevin, mitch mcconnell's challenger in kentucky ran, he couldn't do that on a statewide basis. mitch mcconnell saw it coming earlier. in his own state, rand paul, remember was the tea party upstart who beat mitch mcconnell's favorite candidate a couple of years back. mcconnell saw that coming, you're the deal maker, you would rather negotiate with president obama than sit down with your party. mitch mcconnell was able to head it off. mr. brat was able to head it off. mr. cantor was not.

major consensus of what i'll call more establishment strategists is that the tea party is going to claim victory here. that they didn't do so much, the organizations didn't do so much. this view this more as an indigenous revolt. >> this is a really important point, this really was a grass roots effort for mr. brat. >> there was some organic support, for example as i mentioned earlier, laura ingraham who is a conservative radio talk show host. she has made this kind of her cause. on twitter she even went down there to do a rally last week. i am sure that didn't help mr. cantor at all. but one thing i want to just report, first of all i should tell you when it comes to john boehner, everybody wants to know what he is saying. i've been waved off the idea we're going to get any statement from john boehner any time soon. so we can not look for that. but i've been told by two

sources who may be familiar with the way that job thinks, any thought that he may retire after this next term handing the baton or the gavel over to eric cantor, is likely out the door. it is unlikely he will retire because there is nobody behind him who can get the kind of support that could really help. >> yeah, dana, thank you very much. we'll have more ahead. we'll be right back after a short break. she keeps you on your toes.

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