>> thank you for watching "state of the union." and a very happy father's day for dads and husbands. fareed zakaria gps. welcome, to all of you around the world and the united states. i'm fareed zakaria live from new york. we'll discuss the possible fall of iraq. isis, the al qaeda offshoot has taken city after city and is on the march to baghdad. can the terrorists be stopped? and just who are they? i talked to a man who knows the region well. former u.s. ambassador to iraq and afghanistan, ryan crocker. and what could america do? i talk to richard haas about

washington's options. also, any hope of immigration reform is dead on arrival in congress. what does that mean for america's neighbors in mexico? i will ask that nation's finance minister. and the world cup, fifa is under attack for making money on the backs of brazilians, but really, it's part of a much larger problem, even here in the united states. call it the business of sports. finally, thailand may be in turmoil. but the general still wants people to just be happy. but first, here's my take. inevitably in washington, the question has surfaced, who lost iraq? whenever america has asked this question as it did with china in the 1950s or vietnam in the 1970s. the most important point to remember is the local rulers. the chinese nationalists, south

vietnamese government. were corrupt, inefficient and weak. unable to be inclusive and unwilling to fight with the dedication of their opponents. that same story is true of iraq only much more so. so, the first answer to the question is, fleury al maliki lost iraq. his ruling party behaved like thugs. using the army police forces and militias to terrorize their opponents. let's remember how nuri al maliki came to be prime minister in the first place. having invaded iraq with a small force which experts call the worst war plan in history the administration needed to find local allies fast. it quickly decided to destroy iraq's sunni ruling

establishment and empower the hard-line shiite religious parties that opposed saddam hussein. this meant that a power quickly collapsed. these moves to disband the army, dismantle the bureaucracy and purge sunnis in general might have been more consequence than the actual decision to invade the country. if the bush administration deserves a fair share of blame for losing iraq. what about the obama administration and its decision to withdraw all american forces from the country by the end of 2011. i would have preferred to see a small american force left in iraq to try to prevent the country's collapse. let's remember why this force is not in iraq. prime minister maliki, reduced to provide the guarantees that every other country in the world that host u.s. forces provides. some commentators blame the obama administration for

negotiating badly or half heartedly. perhaps that's through. here's what a senior iraqi politician told me in the days the american deal was being discussed. it will not happy, he said. maliki will not allow american troops to stay on. iran made it very clear to maliki that its number one demand is there be no american troops remaining in iraq and maliki owes them. this iraqi politician reminded me maliki spent more than two decades in exile most of it tehran and damascus. in fact, maliki's government has followed policies that have been broadly speaking, pro-iranian and pro-syrian. washington is debating whether air strikes would work. but the real problem is much larger an is a decade in the

making. in iraq. it's defending the indefensible. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week. let's get started. let's go trait to baghdad to get the latest on the war between isis and the government of iraq. cnn's nick r robertson is their. nic, the reports you have seem to suggest that baghdad is secure but you are hearing something somewhat different? >> reporter: i think the evidence supports something different at the moment fareed. yesterday it seems perhaps the government slowed down isis' advance towards the city. maliki had drawn a line in the sand about two hours north of here overnight the government

asked the army to pull out in baquba. it's much closer to baghdad an soumau sumara. isis moved in within the hour. isis is still on the add dance coming towards baghdad, from what we under in intelligence sources and sunni tribesman fighting alongside isis. i talked to one of them two days ago, this plan that they are following through right thousand, is the plan that they had all along. to move swiftly through the country, to get to baghdad, to encircle baghdad to put pressure on maliki to resign, or normal government of national unit and take baghdad's international airport and the latest, we hear there's an intention to shell the northern outskirts of baghdad to put pressure on it. the sunni tribesman said we don't want casualties, we want to avoid that.

there's different factions fighting towards the city. it's unclear which one will have the upper hand when they arrive. fareed. >> nic, the iraqi government on paper has 800,000 troops between the internal security forces and the actual army. what are they doing? what happens in these circumstances, and why do they fl flee? there's multiple reasons why they flee. some, certainly troops based in sunni areas, feel afraid from behind because they know that the sunnis in the area, the tribesman are against maliki and will acquiesce to the arrival of isis. some of the people in the army themselves are sun nice and are med up with nuri al maliki. the tribesman that's fighting along isis right now told me there was a deal with senior iraqi military commanders to convince them to put down weapons, to take their uniforms

off and they would be treated fairly. that was something they passed down to their supplement bobord. they're well trained by u.s. forces, i've been told, that they are very capable of taking on isis, but these younger soldiers, junior soldiers diseffective with more senior officers who have been hand-picked by maliki and his cronies for prestige for their families. they don't respect their commanders. they are not going fight for them. there's many reasons why the army is breaking down. xand and control in the army is breaking down at the moment. i would suggest not command and control, but confidence in that structure is breaking down and baghdad, we're told that the faces on the check points changing. that means there is less, less faith in the men on the check

points who were there a few days ago. . the government feels they need to put more toughened fighters to take control of the city. it's a complicated picture but that's the way it appears at the moment, fareed. >> fascinating reporting as always, nic. stay safe. up next, what should the united states be doing in iraq? what can it do? i will ask two former officials who dealt with this at the highest levels. former ambassador in iraq. ryan crocker and richard haas. you will want to hear this. all stations come over to mission a for a final go. this is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one.

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iraq crisis. joining me now are two men, both have held senior positions, both with deep experience on iraq. ryan crocker was the u.s. ambassador to iraq from it 2007 to 2009. richard haas was director of policy planning during the state department during george w. bush's first turn. ambassador crocker, john mccain said one of the things he would do is send you back to baghdad. i want to know what you would do were you there. i want to ask you specifically, why you think that maliki would listen to you? you were telling him to be inclusive and to do all of the things people now want him to do and there were 100,000 american troops there at the time. do you think you will be able to do anything if you were to go? , fareed, we have a very, very

good ambassador there right now, in steve becroft. but ambassadors can't do it all. you need heavy fire support on the diplomatic front. if i were asked to return to iraq, the first thing i would request is secretary kerry get on a plane immediately. we have lacked that high level engagement with the iraqis that was so crucial during my it early in office. so, we -- we need the secretary of state out there, in baghdad, right now. we need the president on the phone to the iraqi leadership. because the reality is the iraqis are got in position. they are not in a position when i was there. and they're not in a position now. to work out conflicts on their

own. it is not all maliki's fault although he does bare a substantial imblame. we are the essential middleman among sunni, shia and kurds. ambassadors can go just so far. >> would u-ambassador, you use air strikes -- you heard nic robertson said the sunni tribes, a lost sunnis would feel these were air strikes by the united states in support of a shia government. would you still support the air strikes? >> i would support very carefully targeted air strikes but they would have to be in conjunction with a serious high level diplomatic effort that would engage the cea, the sun initial and the kurdish leadership. we have got to help the iraqis come together in a unified fashion to confront a common

threat. the air strikes, again, properly targeted could help back up that we are serious about this, we are engaged. the politics have to take the forefront, but as we have seen in the past, they've got to be backed up by, you know, the second d which is defense. >> richard haas, what would you do? >> i think the horse left the barn. by that i mean it's too late for the diplomacy that ryan crocker is talking about as desirable months or years ago. i also think the idea of a iraq that's a united functioning country, good idea but again i think that's essentially over. at this point, i would focus on making the best of a terrible situation. i would put pressure on thises is i group in syria. it's long time to have serious help in syria.

they don't have the luxury of focusing on iraq. i would accept the fact that the kurdish area of the north is now effectively an independent state. i would make sure they had essentially what they need. i would provide economic support for jordan, which is staggering under the enormous refugee burden. i would rethink our policy towards afghanistan, the last thing we want to do is not have a residual force there. we ought to have learned the lesson here in iraq and i think we -- we could use air strikes, as ryan says, but quite honestly, the most it's going to delay things. it's not going to be decisive, it's not going to be lasting. maybe we can bring on a syrian government of national unity. it hasn't worked for a decade. quite frankly, i'm skeptical. . what would you do on syria? i know on this program you've been very cautious calling it a forest fire that one has to let burn out. do you think there's anyone can do in syria that would be

meaningful? >> fareed, i've been saying for months that our main effort has got to be on syria's neighbors. richard rightly points out that jordan is under tremendous pressure, so is lebanon, and, again, i've been saying for months. we need to be doing more in iraq. and we're now seeing, i think, the consequences of not doing more. i would disagree with richard in saying that it's too late for diplomacy. maybe it is, maybe it isn't. but i think the iraqis, sunni, shia, and kurds, are all badly frightened here. there is a moment for us to step in. the iranians are heavily engaged. well, you know. the american secretary of state needs to be in baghdad, too, to see what can be done. because the stakes are very high

here. this is al qaeda 6.0. and if they consolidate their territorial gains, they will be in a stronger position than they ever were in afghanistan prior to 9/11. and we know how that turned out. >> richard, describe what you see as the new middle east, then, what you're describing, as far as i can tell, the united states strategy that really shores up the islands of stability, jordan, turkey, ku kurdistan, the gulf states, of course. and there will be very messy badlands in the middle east. >> that's where we are. the middle east as we know was drawn up or designed 100 years ago by the british and french foreign minister. that middle east is unraveling. if there's a historical analog here and will not make you or

anyone watching this program feeling happy. it's europe in the early part of the 17th century, where you had political religious wars within and across boundaries that lasted for 30 years. i think we're into that sort of situation in the middle east. there's no boundary anymore between syria and iraq. it may exist on a map on paper but not in reality. we have identities now that don't in any way line up with where the formal borders are. what we have to do is preserve those areas, as you say, where we have friends, where we have real interest, where we see some reason to believe that american involvement would pay off. other areas, i think we simply have to try to contain. that might mean treating parts of the middle east the same way we have to treat parts of africa, say, or parts of pakistan. these are no-go lands. these are bad lands, we need to have counter terrorism strategies, use drones, use aircraft maybe even special forces on occasion.

but we can't put humpty dumpty back together again. if we don't do it in iraq or afghanistan we have to accept the limits. sometimes in foreign policy, you try to create. other times in foreign policy you try to create. i think in the middle east you need to focus on what it is we prevent than what we create. >> thank you, both fascinating perspectives. greatly appreciate your wisdom. next on "gps" the world cup. fifa came under fire for how much tax-free money they'll make while brazil foots the bill. but there are many organizations like that, including some very powerful ones here in the united states. when we come back, we'll name names right here in america.

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now for our "what in the world" segment. almost half of humanity will tune in to watch some part of the world cup spectacle which

kicked off this week in brazil. the football, which i mean the soccer will be spectacular but the group that put it together has come under some fire. like other bigtime sports organizations fifa international football's governing body is a self-appointed self-regulated body with little accountability and massive revenues, it demans country adhere to its every whim when they agree to host the world cup. brazil spent 11 xwl to host the world cup. fifa officials have to be treated like royalty. and there's accusations that is including qatar's build for the world cup. in 2003 brazil's government banned the sale of alcohol in stadium due to the rise in alcohol-related deaths. but hbo's john oliver points out that law is no match for fifa.

budweiser is one of its main sponsors and fifa demanded the booze ban be overturned. >> at this point you can be horrified or relieved fifa wasn't also sponsored by cocaine and chain saws. this preferential treatment extends beyond budweiser. fifa is getting tax exemption ises worth $250 million. other estimates out even higher. why is an org with a reported reserve of more than $1.4 billion receiving such huge tax benefits. well, because fifa is a nonprofit organization and, guess what, it's not just fifa. the international olympic committee also has nonprofit status. the iog generated $5 billion in revenue since 2009 and 2012 and right here at home the ncaa is

tax end end, too. according to boom burgh its tax break on ticket prices alone cost the u.s. treasury $100 million annually in uncollected revenue and it department just the amateurs. professional american sports leagues in on the game as well. amazingly, the national football league, the national hockey league and pga tour are all nonprofits. and, thus, have tax exempt status. the pga tour generated nearly $1 billion in revenue in 2011. the nhl reported record earnings of $3.1 billion in 2011ened athe nfl made $9.2 billion in revenue in 2013, according to "forbes." that makes it the most lucrative league in the entire world. the nfl's commissioner, roger goodell, took home $44 million in 2012. why in the world are these

leagues considered nonprofits? in september, oklahoma's republican senator tom coburn asked just that question. coburn introduced the pro sports act which would strip professional sports leagues of their federal tax exemption if they earn more than $10 million. the nfl obviously makes much more than that, but to be clear, the organization does point out that only the league office is tax exempt. the 32 member team dos pay taxes on their income. the chaps that coburn's bill will pass are slim to none. if want to know how powerful these leagues. listen to this. this week the minneapolis star tribune published what was a confidential list of demands provided by its sources, demands that the city had to meet in order for the nfl had to meet in order to award the minneapolis the super bowl. the super bowl host committee

declined to comment on the document. it was 153 pages and it requested, among other things, all travel costs for 180 league officials to take a familiarization trip before the game. police escorts for all team owners, as if they're heads of state or something and exemptions from city, county, and state taxes. this, on top of the massive subsidy already in place. minneapolis taxpayers forked over nearly $1 billion in public funds to help build a new stadium for the game. this is worse than crony capitalism, it's crony socialism. the nfl, fifa, ioc, are large multibillion global organizations that make their decisions mostly to maximize their revenues. there's nothing wrong with that. but there is a word to describe them, businesses. and they shouldn't be exempt from the rules, regulations, and taxes that other businesses

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the news on tuesday night shocked the united states. house majority leader, eric cantor, one of the most powerful republicans in the land have been defeated in the primary by a tea party candidate. a man to the right of canter politically. the strongest attacks against eric cantor were on the issue of immigration reform. canter had come out in favor of legal status for the children of undocumented immigrants, just the children. now the topic is radioactive and any hope of immigration reform bill passing congress is dead. what does this mean for the united states and as importantly, what does it mean for its key neighbor? joining me now is mexico's finance minister, luis.

>> who do you think of? >> i think it's surprising. this is not a mexico issue, this is a u.s. issue. we under it that way. do you look at it with some puzzlement? because as you know, net mexican immigration to the united states over the laugh year or two, has been essentially zero. >> that's a fact that's little known in the u.s. but it's a very important fact. in years, the migration was positive into the u.s., but in the past four years, the migration has been zero. that means the number of mexicans coming to the u.s. is the same that the number of people coming to the u.s. into mexico. what is increasing is not the flow of people but the flow of goods and services. every year, we have -- we have an increasing amount of trade. we do $1 million of trade per minute between mexico and the

u.s. we have 1 million crossings of the border legally every day. that means that the integration of these two economies is happening regardless of what people say in washington or in mexico city. just -- it makes so much sense to have value changed linked, produce things together as we do in the auto industry for every dollar we export to the rest of the world. u.s. content and production. >> explain that again for a second. every dollar that mexico exports, 30 crepts of that dollar is something that you bought in america? >> you bought in america. >> every time we export america is exporting with us. it happens rs on the u.s. exports. because many components coming from mexico. >> why do you think the mexican immigration to the united states has stopped or at you say, the number of people coming from mexico to the u.s. is equal to the number of people going from the u.s. to mexico. net migration is zero. is that the cause -- there are

enough good-paying jobs in mexico? is that because of the u.s. recession? when your economy starts growing even faster will the old pattern re-emerge and you'll see more mexicans coming across the border? >> that's quite unlikely. it will mean more jobs in mexico, and better paying jobs in mexico. it's not at all projected for these to change. in fact we expend this trend to continue. >> in a sense, in washington, we're fighting yesterday's war. in other words, there isn't going to be a big problem of mexican migration into the u.s. in the future. >> certainly not. and i think it's framing the problem framing the future with the lens of the past. immigration will be more about students coming to the u.s. even u.s. students going to mexico to learn spanish and get different skills. will be of high qualified

workers, either u.s. coming into mexico or mexicans going to the u.s. remember, there are already over 1 million u.s. citizens live in mexico and they are doing jobs throughout the country, they are being quite productive. some people are retiring into mexico and that's going to grow as well. >> why we have this conversation about barking mexico or electrified fences. people like george schultz, ronald reagan's secretary of state. richard nixon's secretary of treasury. the real conversation we should be having is how we have freer movement of people from the u.s. to mexico and mexico to the u.s. to deepen the immigration between these two countries. do you think that's even possible? >> let me show you something where we have more attention. as i said, this is a very active border. trade guard troubled since october, the best 20 years and we haven't invested the side of

the border anything sub stang to improve the crossings, so the cues are getting longer, wait times are getting longer and these are the kind of things we should be focusing on much how can we be sure something that is produced in -- within mexico, then goes to a factory in north carolina, and -- that it would be exported to europe. how can we stream line that process to make it more productive, more competitive for both countries? that means unsfra structure. that means logistics, that's where the factors of mexican relationships should be on. >> we should been paulaing for the opportunities, not the problems. >> i perceive the u.s. government is focusing strongly on that, as well as we. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, such an honor. >> up next, if watching the world cup you see pictures of the slums of rio and wince, my next guest will give us the case for slums and he's a harvard

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slums, waste, idol hands of abject poverty. my next guest spent time studying some these places, particularly those spotlighted in brazil. he sees the bright side to slums. ed rozier studies slums. you have a chapter called, what's good about slums, when you look at slums in brazil, ind india, what are we missing? >> we're missing the alternative. while we no never want to spend a week or month of our lives in these slums the people who come there are not fools, they are moving places that are far worse. it gives them the ability to find a future. they're hellish by the standards that we're used but not hell hirsch than the rural arias of

brazil. there's more in the city than in unproductive farmland. >> not that people in slums are poor, but cities attract poor people because they want to stop being poor? . absolutely. urban poverty is more of a sign of urban strength than weakness. cities don't make people poor at least not most of the time. cities attract people with a promise of a better life. with the ability to get around without a car. my own work together with matthew khan of ucla found that poverty rates go up near new subway stops. that doesn't mean the subway stop stops are attract th people that aren't ail to afford the life style of american suburbia. >> when we look at those things, there's an enormous amount of economic activity going on there. it's all informal. nobody pays any taxes. you know, is that something that one should celebrate?

>> i think so. i mean, i think there are things also to hate about slum, certainly. i think the first order of things when i walk through a place which is a magical place filled with enormous energy of indian talent. there's a guy sewing bra zeers and you think you're in the lower side of manhattan in 1905. and there's a ceramics potter making ceramics, and there are people recycling plastics. all sorts of things, where do they come up with this? of course you also walk down the street and see a kid deaf indicating on an unpaved road and remind us cities require managementment even those these are places of opportunity they are places of public failure much of the time. that's the challenge of the 21st century making the megacities developed and liveable. >> what about american cities,

when you look like detroit. what went wrong and how can you fix it? >> the epic of detroit is one of the world's great urban tragedies. it's enormous head winds of economic change. detroit is an xafl industrial city whose age has come and gone. successful cities are marked by three things, smart people, small firms and connections to the outside world. these things made new york great. small firms talk with each other, connect with peach other. smart people are able to use the density, to learn from one another and of course connections to the outside world are what cities are all about. think how far from the industrial city became. you had vast integrated factories. it's not these things were amazingly productive in their time. but when cost conditions change you move the factories to a far

cheaper location. to the south, across the oceans and the cities didn't have wherewithal to reintervent themselves. ask yourself which cities in america have been able to many could back? it's education and human capital. the tragedy is when u.s. government looked at reinventing cities it followed an intent strategy that made it seem structure and infrastructure is what it needed. it now has less than 1.8 million people. the last thing it needed was housing and a monorail. yet that's what the federal government gave them. >> tell the story of the food truck. >> i have a personal agenda. as a young assistant professor, i fed my such in food trucks for many years. in part. i ended up on a trade many yo program several years ago with the cause of a proof woman starting to start a food truck

for 18 months. facing regulatory barriers at every turn. >> detroit of all places. >> the idea detroit says no to any entrepreneur is mind-boggling. they said look, lady, just start your food truck, we'll never catch you. which is one model towards urban freedom. >> good to have you on. >> up next after the recent coupe in thailand, the military chief has an unlikely message for its people. let's say it seems he's been inspired by pharrell. what super poligrip does for me is it keeps the food out. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable. [ male announcer ] just a few dabs is clinically proven

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the world cup kickoff brings me to my quest week. what country is making its world cup debut this year? bosnia, maldova, singapore or south sudan. tay tuned. we'll tell you the correct answer. if you like the show, even love it. pleases dvr or tivo the show so you never miss an install many.

this book of the week is dexter filkins. "the forever war." he takes you inside the war. his writings are not opinionated. he takes you inside the war, the occupation, insurgency. beautifully written. now more the last look. the thailand national team may not be in the world cup but thai citizens will watch it for free. they have cracked down on protests and detained critics. despite all of this. they have a message for the thai people. be happy and free broadcasts of all 64 world cup games is part of the attempt to return happiness to the people. they're also giving away movie

tickets, throwing free concerts with singing soldiers and skaptly clad women and brought horses downtown for people to pet. the general wants to return happiness to thailand, so much, so, that he wrote a ballad about it. ♪ it's set to music buy by the royal thai army band and has more than 2,000 hits on youtube. with lyrics like "we offer to guard and protect you with our harries can i and to bring back love how long will it take." please, will you wait it isn't quite as catch chi as that other happy song ♪ tap along if you feel like a room without a roof

♪ >> the answer is "a." bosnia herzegovina is making its debut. they're one of the smallest countries with a team in the world cup this year. while its unemployment rate is high in gdp stagnant the nation is trying to integrate itself into organizations like the european union and world trading organization. it may be an underdog but it does have a world-class striker. who was the second highest scorer in the european qualifying matches. best of luck in its first ever world cup match against argentina tonight. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. part of my program this week. i will see you next week. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com >p here's the big stori followir following this

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u.s. will play its world cup opener tomorrow against ghana. reliab reliable sources, starts right now. good morning from washington. happy father's day. it's time for a "reliable sources." there's wall-to-wall crisis in iraq. how can we trust the information we're getting. we'll get that shortly but let's go over the river to virginia. the thing about earthquakes there's no advance warning. you never see them womaning. >> this was a political earthquake. >> it's being called a political earthquake in a stunning upset eric cantor lost in the virginia primary. >> yes, eric cantor was crushed by his primary opponent. by davbr