>> thank you for joining me. welcome. i have a packed show today including this. dewey beats truman or the 2014 version t democrats win big in november. "the new york times," "the washington post," the tv networks, they are all wrong, says princeton professor sam wang. and he's been right a lot. then, mitt romney will run for president, pat buchanan says so it i'm inclined to believe it. he will be here. and finally, he was running things during the iraq war and then told the white house this thing is a mess. general anthony zinly on obama's war against isis. let's get started. a first today. what is wrong with the nfl? early this morning star running back adrian peterson of the vikings turned himself in to authorities in texas to face child abuse charges. he admits to having hit his 4-year-old son with a tree

branch repeatedly. the indictment says the boy suffered substantial injuries. peterson says i was spanking my child. what is wrong with the nfl? adrian peterson will not be playing for the minnesota vikings sunday. around the league at least ten convicted or suspected domestic abusers are scheduled to take the field. one is panther kreg harding, defensive end convicted of beating his ex-girlfriend, throwing her across the room and trying to strangle her. and there is san francisco 49er ray mcdonald, arrested two weeks ago accused of beating up his pregnant fiancee. ray rice of course will not play as the whole world now knows he was fired from the baltimore ravens for delivering that awful knock-out punch to his then fiance in an elevator. others are avoiding suspension because in the past the league has been lenient. one former player is amani

toomer. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> so tomorrow guys are going to suit up, some of whom have issues of their own. there is a guy for the panthers with an allegation of domestic violence against him right now. do you expect that there is a process about to occur where they get ferreted out as well, get punished by the nfl where previously they had not been? >> greg hardy was convicted by a judge and now decided to go to a jury trial. you know, usually in this country you're innocent until proven guilty. he's been proven guilty so i think that his case and there is another case of mcdonald in san francisco, who just got charged. i think mcdonald has an opportunity to defend himself and should be able to plap. but hardy, a player who has been convicted, i don't see how the nfl after this situation after how bad it's looked, after how they made the whole domestic violence, doesn't look like the

nfl is taking domestic violence seriously outwardly looking in. i think that greg hardy should not be playing on sunday. >> a number of my radio callers this week, curious to hear what you heard, drawing parallels with michael vick. one argument is when a guy has paid his penance, he has been punished by the law, i don't think that happened with ray rice, he should be able to eat, he should be able to come back and engage in his profession. what's your thought on that? >> playing in the nfl is a privilege. >> okay. >> you know, you have to -- there is a code of conduct our commissioner has put forth and you have to live up to that standard. he could be able to eat, he could do -- he could work in a job, he can do anything he wants, he might not be able to play in the nfl until he proves without a shadow of a doubt to the nfl and to all of the people in the community who he affected by this behavior to come back. i don't look at it the same way. i think he needs to get out in

front of this thing and become like michael vick who got -- who was -- did a lot of work with peta. i think ray rice, they should use him as a spokesperson to create awareness for domestic violence moving forward. i think then i would be more willing to allow him back in the community. >> you mention the commissioner. let me ask you about roger goodell. it seems like there is a fact dispute as to what was said at a june meeting where ray rice and his now wife were meeting with roger goodell and goodell is saying that he wasn't told that there was a punch in the course of that meeting, others are saying that ray rice's side of it is i told roger goodell exactly what happened. here's my question f. goodell had been told by rice at that meeting what happened inside the elevator and he chose to only suspend him for two games, does goodell now need to go? >> i don't think goodell needs to go. i think he needs to know what

domestic violence is. i don't believe he should just be fired because i think that that's the easy way out. it's the easy way out to fire him, i think what needs to happen is the league needs to move forward and to become like ray rice, on top of this situation in terms of becoming -- creating awareness. there is no other league, no other entity that can create more awareness than the nfl. i think they have an opportunity to turn the narrative fromming the nfl doesn't care about domestic violence to the nfl champions the awareness of domestic violence. >> gentlemjanay rice says back essentially it's your fault. >> that's the classic, my mother telling me that most victims are very apologetic and they take on a lot of the responsibility of the action of the abuser themselves. now, if roger goodell and the nfl realized that before and

they knew, they looked at it through the victim's role, then this situation would have been handled differently. >> amani toomer, good to see you. wear the ring next time. >> i know. it's too big to wear out. >> good problem to have. thank you. >> i'm not complaining. >> thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. who the heck is advising commissioner roger goodell? his handling of the ray rice scandal has been a pr disaster. let's talk to an expert in crisis management to knows the nfl, lanny davis, former white house special counsel to bill clinton. he has also remitted redskins owner daniel snyder. thank you for being here. if today you were whispering in the ear of roger goodell, you would be telling him what? >> well, first of all, i'd be telling him to restate that he got it wrong to begin with when he only imposed a two-game suspension based upon the first

videotape. now he has to expand on that. i happen to think he not only got it wrong for only doing two games, i would recommend a full year suspension for the first incident of domestic violence to send a message to all men including adrian peterson, that violence, whether it's women or children, is not acceptable and you're not playing in the league for one year and the second incident it's suspension indefinitely. so that's what he got wrong. now i think he needs to be more forthcoming about exactly what he plans to do going forward for all of these other incidents that we're now hearing about of men who play football who think violence is okay on the field and okay off the field because it's off the field, they need to be told that there is no distinction when you're violent against women you're out, you don't play football and at least for one year you never play football if you do it a second time. you're out forever. >> i read your book, i know the

mantra, the lanny davis mantra. he did not tell it all, tell it early or tell it himself. >> no he didn't. i think that not asking the casino for the second videotape was a mistake. i think he's right that law enforcement during a grand jury proceeding wouldn't turn over the tape. but i also would beg to differ that you characterize that there were facts about what was told behind closed doors, let's talk about mr. rice. mr. rice did not follow my rules, and was not honest with the public when he held a press conference. he didn't say i cold cocked my girlfriend and that's why i dragged her out. he left that out. now he sends four anonymous sources to espn to say i actually told mr. goodell, when you have two people on the record the president and the owner of the ravens disputing the anonymous sources. at the very least, mr. rice has not followed any of the rules of

crisis management. he did something terrible, he should take himself out of football for a year and get help and then go -- teach other men not to touch women and not to be violent against women. >> give me 30 seconds on adrian peterson. today's latest ripple. how should goodell respond to this? >> as strongly as striking a woman certainly as strongly as beating up a child much less his own child. he needs to be the teaching moment for this country about abusing children, and that should be part of the equation in the nfl, off-field behavior, whether it's drunk driving, violence against women and children, they are just as responsible off the field as on the field. >> lanny davis, as always, thank you for being here. >> thank you. have to take a quick break. here's what i want to talk about. president obama is sending more americans on dangerous missions to iraq and syria. congress has not weighed in. don't our elected

representatives owe us a real debate about whether this is a risk worth taking? mitt romney says he's not running again for the white house in 2016 but pat buchanan says oh, yes, he is. and we're going to talk. and why isn't anyone prosecuting ray rice? he committed a crime the country witnessed and no one is charging him. we'll talk about that after the break. at od, whatever business you're in, that's the business we're in. with premium service like one of the best on-time delivery records and a low claims ratio, we do whatever it takes to make your business our business. od. helping the world keep promises. lots of them, right?

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tigers, both of you. tigers? don't be modest. i see how you've been investing. setting long term goals. diversifying. dip! you got our attention. we did? of course. you're type e* well, i have been researching retirement strategies. well that's what type e*s do. welcome home. taking control of your retirement? e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*? as awful as the ray rice elevator assault is, this point needs to be spelled out. ray rice cannot be prosecuted further. he was charged with third degree

aggravated assault but in may he was accepted in what's called a pretrial diversion program. as long as he completes the program the charges will be dropped and he will avoid prosecution. it sounds like justice failed. what happened at the local level with the criminal justice system in atlantic city? i'm joined by the president of the new jersey state senate, he's calling for the state attorney general to investigate how prosecutors handle the case. senator, let me ask you this. what did the police and prosecutors know of that appalling video and when did they know it? >> well, they had the film, michael. and the problem is that you saw that violent act, the prosecutor actually went and moved for mr. rice to be upgraded in his charge. and went before a grand jury. and unfortunately, our laws, we've just -- third degree crime comes with presumption of non-incarceration, you can't put

somebody in jail regardless of the. >> if it had been joe smith, some random individual not a celebrity, same outcome would have occurred? >> well, that's what the prosecutor in atlantic county is doing, that's why i asked the attorney general to review to assure there was no special treatment given. there are conflicting reports now that it looks like he was given some special treatment but you know, we're dealing with basically a victim that is defending the abuser and that's pretty common in domestic abuse. so we're looking at this as if this is common practice and the way you deal with this then we need to change it. >> there is a perception across the country as people watched this god awful video. they think he was cut a break because he plays in the nfl. what i'm hearing is that the law needs to be changed and your suspicion as you're calling for

this investigation is it was not a celebrity treated in a beneficial manner. >> well, i'm giving the prosecutor the benefit of the doubt but i am asking the attorney general because we have to make sure that he wasn't given a special treatment because of who he was. and you know, more importantly for us, this puts domestic violence on the forefront again for a lot of people and it's a serious issue. we're taught as children you don't beat children, you don't beat women. it's the wrong thing to do. >> something's wrong here. on that we can agree, the justice system for whatever reason didn't react as society would demand to what we all saw in that videotape. >> absolutely. what we've seen from that videotape is really there is a failure in our system. mr. rice honestly should have went to jail. that was a violent act. he could have killed his girlfriend at the time and he's gotten a slap on the wrist. it's like a traffic violation. don't do it again.

you're speeding, don't do it again. domestic violence has to be treated in a way that it deals with the problem. and unfortunately mr. rice slipped through the cracks. >> well said. i agree. senator steve sweeney, thank you for joining us. >> thank you, michael. i want to squeeze in a commercial. when i come back i've got a question. why in the heck hasn't our congress debated whether we should be escalating military action against isis? there are life and death concerns. shouldn't we hear all sides? so what we're looking for is a way to "plus" our accounting firm's mobile plan. and "minus" our expenses. perfect timing. we're offering our best-ever pricing on mobile plans for business. run the numbers on that. well, unlimited talk and text, and ten gigs of data for the five of you would be... one-seventy-five a month. good calculating kyle. good job kyle. you just made partner. our best-ever pricing on mobile share value plans for business.

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welcome back to the program. president obama has now laid out his plan to go after isis. though he once again uttered the magic words no boots on the ground it sure looks and smells like war. even if on a limited scale. so i believe there is something else that must now happen. it's time for congress to have an up or down vote on authorizing the use of force. sadly, that doesn't appear likely. not because congress is too busy on other matters. this week the house found time to vote to amend the wild and scenic rivers act but military intervention didn't come up. on the senate side senators approved the multinational species conservation fund's semipostal stamp reauthorization

act ever 2013. but no time for authorizing military action. there have been plenty of sound bites about isis, just no voting. despite the fact that resolutions to authorize force were introduced last monday in both houses, too many representatives seem all too willing to sidestep the accountability that comes from having to vote for or against war. representative jack kingston summed up the situation. he said a lot of people would like to stay on the sidelines and say just bomb the place and tell us about it later. it's an election year and i'll speak with him in a moment. i suspect some representatives are looking at hillary clinton's vote to authorize the use of force as the type of albatross that comes from such votes. others don't want to stand for anything that he supports. the president has of course invited a vote but that could simply be because he knows congress is too spineless to do it. and of course the white house has repeatedly said the

president has the authority he needs to take action against isis. whether congressional approval is legally necessary is unclear. but i think american people are entitled to know exactly where our elected representatives stand not from a media appearance but from a vote. accountability demands people close the curtain on a booth in the midterms knowing whether their representative voted for or against the use of military force. look, going to war is a momentous decision. placing men and women in harm's way and that enormous financial consequence to the nation should never be easy. authorizing military force should be the stuff of ongoing debate and serious daegs making. we elected them to make these tough decisions. so members of congresses, our scenic rivers can wait. it's time for you to face the serious responsibilities that you were elected to do. so, let's turn now to a member of congress, put some of these questions to him. jack kingston is the georgia representative who supports a congressional vote authorizing

military intervention, congressman, nice to have you here. >> good to be with you. >> the times lead et tor yol on this on friday said it's a matter of cowardice if congress won't take on a vote for authorization for war. what do you say? >> well, i think this there are those in washington who would just as soon not vote on it. i don't know why you run for congress, though, if you are afraid to cast a vote. that's what we're paid to do. that's why we came to town. whether you are democrat or republican, and as you outlined, this is a very serious decision. we have not gotten it right in the middle east in 13 years. and we need to know all of the information that we can. we need to be having a robust debate, we need to be getting a lot of eyes on this and a lot of finger prints on this decision. i think it strengthens the president's hand internationally, but it also brings the country together through the education process on what the american interest is. >> did he give you enough, in

his address to the nation, congressman, that you would be comfortable voting for an authorization for war against isis in syria and iraq? >> not quite but i will say this. i'm old school enough to believe that the commander in chief needs to have the tools to, if this is a serious situation, which it is, he needs to have the tools to be -- the tools that he needs to be victorious. that's why while i don't think anybody is embracing putting troops on the ground, i don't think you can get around that eventually. and i think that the president has to have congress behind him if he needs to make that decision. he has not said he needs to make that decision but i want him to have all of the tools in the tool box to win this war. and i do believe it is a war. >> i was surprised that a survey this past week from "the wall street journal" and nbc news said that two thirds of americans are supportive of some type of military intervention against isis, in fact, a full third of americans said they'd support boots on the ground.

as i analyze the internals of the data i was saying to myself i wonder if they have been swayed which the horrific images of the two beheadings and the fact that we've just marked the 13th anniversary of september 11 and maybe the dust needs to settle a little for more reasoned approach to this. >> we don't know who our allies are, that question was asked this week in a hearing, we don't know what these allies are willing to do in terms of writing a check, sending equipment or sending ground troops. and all that is important because if the air campaign isn't successful enough and we can't get enough iraqis trained up to defend themselves, then you're going to have to have some ground troops and they have to come from somewhere. >> i worry there is not a sufficient arab component and the perception will be among isis that it's yet again the west and america encroaching on what they regard as the arabian peninsula and they will use this for propaganda purposes for

recruitment. >> i think members of congress are going to want to know what are they willing to do, how much skin are they going to put in the game. and one of the things that we learned from afghanistan and iraq, there were a lot of people in our coalition almost there on paper only. their contribution was very small. while we said we had 48 nations in the coalition, some gave a little -- a lot more than others. and i think people are going to want to know that as well. we can't continuously intervene in the middle east and fight the wars that they should be fighting for themselves. >> it's funny you say that. a couple years ago i toured a base in djibouti and i was impressed to see this listing of all of the countries represented on the base but when we saw the sizes of the respective barracks, there was the united states and then everybody else. >> yes. that's absolutely right. they are there on paper only. and we were told this week administration is hoping to have

70 countries in the coalition. that would be very, very good news. i don't see how they are going to be able to accomplish that in a few weeks' period of time, though. >> congressman, thank you for being here. >> thank you, michael. time for a break but i've got a fascinating guest coming up. general anthony zinni was the commander who broke with the white house during the iraq war, went on national television to say this thing is a mess. you'll want to hear what he has to say about the war on isis, stick with us.

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of isis fighters in iraq and syria could be as high as 31,500. that's more than triple the original estimate. the pentagon has been bombing isis targets in iraq to slow the advance of the terror group, and now it's about to launch air strikes inside of syria. general michael hayden, former cia director says the strategy isn't going to work and he used an interesting analogy. >> strategic level air power has all of the attraction of casual sex. it offers gratification, but with limited commitment. >> that's one way to put. i think my next guest may agree. general zinni says they should have put boots on the ground months ago. he is former head of u.s. central command and author of "before the first shots are fired." general zinni, welcome. thanks for being here. >> good to be with you, michael.

>> do you cringe as a military leader you hear an elected official make a pledge like no boots on the ground, if so why? >> i do cringe for several reasons. one, first of all don't tell your enemy what you're not going to do. presidents have always said all options are still on the table. they may caveat saying we'll look carefully before certain commitments. the other thing i think we're missing here and this is very important from a military perspective. boots on the ground provide a capability that cannot be matched through just air strikes or providing intelligence or advisers and quipping. we could have had isis out of iraq in a matter of a week or so if we had a substantial american groundforce. by that i mean maybe two brigades. now they have been in for months, and they have been able to recruit, it's helped their image and even international recruiting. and they have been able to dig

in in places like mosul and others and it's going to be much hard tear extract them as a result. >> i think, general, civilians such as myself equate boots on the ground with longevity. is that necessarily the case. we think this is going on for many years. >> no. i think that's a misunderstanding. the decision to stay is a political decision. remember in the first gulf war, when we put in overwhelming troops according with the powell and weinberger doctrine we ended that fight pretty quickly and able to reduce to a small containment force that didn't have boots on the ground. remember when the kurds were brutalized by saddam. we put in a ground force to push the military back from kurdistan and brought them home, then protected them with an air contingent out of turkey and off carriers. so, there isn't necessarily that kind of commitment.

it's a misunderstanding, i think, that's gotten our presidents and others in our understanding by the american people confused. >> general, with regard to the coalition being assembled, is the enemy of my enemy my friend in this case and by that sir, i mean should we participate with assad? should we participate with iran? >> i would not participate in the sense that we're cooperating with either one. it may be that right now we have the same enemy. all that needs to be done is just deconflict what we're doing on the ground which basically means we would say in the case of syria, issue, we're going to strike isis targets inside syria, do not interfere with us or else. and with iran i would say we will keep you informed as much as we can, you keep us informed since we're basically sharing the same battlefield. but we have to remember one important thing.

neither one of those entities has our best interests at heart in the end. >> i worry about the reliability of those syrian forces with whom we might now partner that we might be training. i reflect on afghanistan when it seems like there was an unintended consequence and came back to haunt wisconsin bid laden and the volunteers. what concern if nen does general zinni have about our new partners in syria? >> you know, i've always worried when we fall back to a rented army like we did with the northern alliance in afghanistan. that cost us getting al qaeda in tora bora. this collection that we have now is highly vulnerable in my mind. it's not only the syrian opposition that we're counting on for the ground fight, remember they have two fights going on and we're not sure who they all are. we also have the kurdish peshmerga and the iraqi military. the kurds, they will fight but

they are small and poorly equipped. the iraqi army, we should have doubts based on their performance and obviously the syrian opposition is questionable, again in who they are and if they are able to handle the task of fighting two enemies, assad and isis. so, this is the weak link in this strategy as i see it. >> general, quick final question if i might. is there a vital u.s. interest at stake with regard to isis? >> there is. and it's a moral one. you know, had we not intervened as small as the first intervention was with airstrikes and humanitarian aid they would have committed genocide. the yazid es would have been wiped out. the caldeians, all of those iraqi prisoners they took, they were brutally murdering. i don't think we want to do what we did in terms of the holocaust or rwanda and stud by and

watched this happen. though that might not be an economic interest it's a moral interest in my view. >> general anthony zinni, thank for yours service and for being here. >> thank you. i need to get in a break. when i come back, some startling predictions of very smart guy who says all of the conventional wisdom about the midterm elections is dead wrong. princeton professor sam wang is standing by live. so what we're looking for is a way to "plus" our accounting firm's mobile plan. and "minus" our expenses. perfect timing. we're offering our best-ever pricing on mobile plans for business. run the numbers on that. well, unlimited talk and text, and ten gigs of data for the five of you would be... one-seventy-five a month. good calculating kyle. good job kyle. you just made partner. our best-ever pricing on mobile share value plans for business. now with a $100 bill credit for every business line you add.

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it's like dewey defeats truman all over again. november's midterm elections seven weeks away.

right now all of the experts predict that republicans will win a majority in the senate. what if everybody's got it wrong? my next guest says they do. sam wang is a princeton university professor and the founder of the princeton election consortium. this guy has a phenomenal track record. in 2012 he beat all of the so-called experts, he called the presidential race correctly in 49 of 50 states, he also had a perfect record for the close senate seat. sam wang went 10 for 10 and missed a couple in the house. sam wang predicts that democrats will retain control of the senate and he joins me now. dr. wang, we visited your website. i want to put up what is currently posted at your site and ask you to explain. because you, sir, are saying the probability of democratic control remaining in the hands of democrats and independents on election day is 70%. what are you seeing that everyone else is not?

>> that's right. well, i should first say that 70% is not 100%. let me describe what we do there. for the last elections going back to 2004 when i started analyzing this stuff at election.princeton.edu, what we found is that polls are very good snapshot of current conditions at any given moment in the race and polls converge on the election day outcome. so what you're looking at there is the probability of all of the state races that are close including the ones that are not so close, and i turn those into a statistical snapshot of where the race is on any given day. and what the number you came up with is a forecast based on what the polls are doing all summer of that number, landing on democrats and independents having 50 seats or more on election day. so, based on what we've been seeing the polls have been pointing toward a very close contest, everybody should vote, but indicating that democrats and independents are favored. >> we should make clear, you're

a neuroscientist, you're an aggregator in this respect. you are not doing original polling, you're looking at a whole host of other people's data. how do you protect against garbage in, garbage out? do you exclude pollsters from your research that have a bad track record? >> right. the way i put it as a neuroscientist i'm having to deal with points that might be off one by one. the key is aggragate them in a neutral way where all of the data points have a say. since 2004, our observation at the princeton election consortium though an individual pollster might be off as a community those guys, those men and women are very good at what they do. and as a community, they have this wisdom of crowds where they can converge on the right answer. what that means is that all polls are welcome in this and using statistical methods to not give too much weight to outlier polls, democratic pollsters can get in. republican pollsters, neutral

pollsters, everybody gets in and perhaps surprisingly that leads to a very good predictive tool. >> dr. wang, i've been following you via social media. seems there is a trash talking going on between nate silver and you. >> yeah. it's sort of fun but i want to make sure that stays on the math and stays on the substance. and you are right there is a little bit of a tiff going on. >> i watch that netflix documentary about the romney campaign. it was tremendous. something that i took away for our purposes is the fact the romney folks seemed stunned on election night. so my question for you, dr. wang, is there a tendency among pollsters to tell their clients what they want to hear? >> well, i think if you're an individual pollster it is true you should please your client. one thing that pollsters can do the boost the spirits of the campaign they are working for so it would not be sprigsing for a campaign to nudge numbers a little bit, put a little finger

on the scale, toward the candidate they are working for to get him to run harder, this finger on the scale can happen with individual pollsters. you look at the romney campaign, i think a distinct possibility is that mitt romney was led to believe something that was a little off from what happened. >> finally, what i'm hearing from you, this is not a wave, this is at best a ripple year. is that fair to say? >> i think in the senate that's true. these main stream immediate yap sites, 538 and the new york times, they came into this campaign thinking that it was going to be a better year for the republicans and their computer models put a finger on the scale f. you look at actual conditions on the ground right now in terms of polling in the senate, the democrats are currently performing better than expectations, i do think it's true that the republicans are likely to pick up seats in the house but it's not going to be a massive wave like in 2010. >> thanks for being here.

>> thank you. >> coming up next, i'll be talking to one of the smartest political thinkers on the planet. pat buchanan says mitt romney probably is going to run for president again and he is usually right. you'll want to hear what pat has to say. at od, whatever business you're in, that's the business we're in with premium service like one of the best on-time delivery records and a low claims ratio, we do whatever it takes to make your business our business. od. helping the world keep promises. please choose one based oh, no,on the cover.en that. here we go... whoa, no test rides allowed.

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is mitt romney laying the groundwork to run for president again in 2016? last weekend on fox news sunday governor romney was highly criticalp of president obama's time in office but insist head is not running to replace him. listen to the exchange. >> in your heart do you think that you would make the best president of all of the people out there? >> look, there is no question in my mind that i think i'd have been a better president than barack obama has been. >> that was quickly followed by this exchange. >> you think you would make a better president than hillary clinton? >> no question about that in my mind. >> governor romney is no doubt

keeping an eye on the early polls. a recent poll gives him a commanding lead over potential gop rivals among republican voters in iowa. romney's got 35%, his nearest competitor is governor huckabee at 9%. despite his latest denial and all this made me think about richard nixon who ran and lost to j.f.k. in 1960 and after a series of denials ran again in '68 and won. so let's talk to one of the smart nest politics, pat buchanan. who worked in the nixon white house. also the autoer of the "the greatest comeback. the more he says no. the more i think he's read your book and he's following a the script set by nixon in the '60s. what are you watching. >> i see the same thing.

nixon lost in 1962 and said i'm all through with politics. and in 1966 michael, which is comparable to this year for the 2016 campaign, nixon went out after l.b.j. day and night on that campaign. 35 states, 80 congressional districts. nixon was on johnson's case. he campaigned for liberal, conservatives moderates and everyone. at the end he engaged lindon johnson. i think governor romney seems to be pursuing this strategy and it is exactly the right one i believe if he wants to run for president. and i don't have any doubt that mitt romney would like to be president of the united states and believe he would be a good one. >> do you think he's going about this in a manner to set up a draft that having run and lost twice he doesn't want to announce candidacy in the

conventional way. he goes out and pays his dues and sets up a circuit where republicans are saying oh man you got get into this thing. >> i don't along with the draft thing. what we did in 67, 68. nixon said i'm going to have to win in the fires of the primary, and have to win every one. and get rid of this loser image. and the way you do is going in and inviting every republican in and beating every one of them. i don't think if mitt romney. and i believe he wants to be president in his heart. e ran twice. i believe if he does that he has to get in and do battle and win the mom makes tnom-nom nation. i don't think people are going to offer it to him on a golden platter. if actual establishment centralist candidates. chris christie and jebb bush. i don't think why mitt romney

should look at them. all have drawbacks and say i can't beat these fellas and get into the finals. >> my i appraisal is that conservatives within the republican caucus process split that vote and allow romney to escape with the nomination. if christie goes, if bush goes. if romney goes, might the establishment vote be divided within the process allowing a conservative, maybe pat buchanan. i don't know. to capture the nomination. >> this is so wide open, michael. nobody is above 15%. when i ran against bob dole in 96 he was over 50% beginning. there are going to be conservatives, maybe a libertarian in there. nobody is above 15%. so the conservative libertarian side, popular side is going to be widely contested as well as the establishment side. maybe even more so. this is kr wide open. it is like a poker game.

if you play draw poker, five cards. and you open up with two aces in your hand. you don't drop out of the game, michael. >> let me switch gears briefly. so the president was on national television talking about what looks like war against isis fx even though he doesn't characterize it as such. am i crazy watching this thinking he's channelling r.n.? >> i don't think richard nixon would go into this the way the president is going into it. isis is a miserable crowd and they ought to be destroyed. but he does not have the forces. you need forces on the ground in syria and forces on the ground in iraq to defeat isis. and i don't see him as having them. and he won't deal with assad apparently the syrian army which, could do it. the turks aren't going to come in and the allies in yurm aneure and the arab world aren't going to send troops, where are the

ground forces going to come from to defeat the radicals? >> good question. >> i don't know. >> patrick as always. we appreciate your analysis. >> thank you my friend. >> i'll be right back. so what we're looking for is a way to "plus" our accounting firm's mobile plan. and "minus" our expenses. perfect timing. we're offering our best-ever pricing on mobile plans for business. run the numbers on that. well, unlimited talk and text, and ten gigs of data for the five of you would be... one-seventy-five a month. good calculating kyle. good job kyle. you just made partner. our best-ever pricing on mobile share value plans for business. now with a $100 bill credit for every business line you add.

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that's it for today. it will be interesting to see next week if congress advise an has on up or down vote on war against isis. it will be interesting to see that. thank you so much for joining me. good morning. it is good to see you as we edge toward that 10:00 hour on saturday. nice lazy morning. i'm christy paul.

>> a 1:15 still to go. you are in the cnn news room. america's dtop diplomat is on a mission to get arab nations to commit to this u.s. led coalition against isis. >> it is the latest stop in cairo after turkey and arabia and he spoke moments ago. >> the bottom line is terrorists like isil have no place in the modern world. but it is up to the world to enforce that truth. >> cnn global affairs correspondent is in cairo now. >> elise, tell us more about the secretary's message today in cai cairo. >> well christie and victor. he is here in cairo. egypt is really the heart and soul of the arab world. the kind of capital of the arab world. so secretary kerry wants egypt

to be an important and symbolic part of this coalition. not just reaching out to the new iraqi government trying to bring them back into the fold of the egypt. but they want egypt to cut down on the flow of the foreign financing to isis and also the flow of foreign fighters into iraq and syria that helps them recruit. listen to what secretary kerry just said moments ago. >> so we are very grateful that both egypt and the arab league have supported this coalition every step of the way. and in each of the meetings that i had today we discussed how we could better accelerate the efforts in bringing more nationinnations on board and in dividing up the responsibilities. >> and in another thing that secretary kerry wants egypt to do is use its messaging. get the r