if you picked up a newspaper or turned on a tv in recent days, what you have seen has been fear

over isis -- >> those folks could kill americans -- >> over ebola, even over the economy. is isis really a threat to the united states and europe right now? how bad is the ebola outbreak going to get before it gets better? and what about the economy? are we on the verge of another recession. also, we'll take a look at oil, the price of which is falling in the midst of all these tensions. why? we'll explain. and i'll take you inside my investigation into my own roots, where i came from. this is all the old lands of the ottoman empire. what i found surprised me. but first, here is my take. from the start president obama's

syria policy has foundered because of a gap between words and deeds. he's done it again, having declared that the aim of american policy is to degrade and destroy isis. he now finds himself pressured to escalate military action in syria. this is a path destined for failure. in fact, the obama administration should abandon its lofty rhetoric and make clear that it is focused on a strategy against isis that is actually achievable, containment. escalation in syria cannot meet american objectives and is almost certain to produce chaos and unintended consequences. the central reality is and has always been that washington has no serious local partners on the ground there. it's important to understand that the free syrian army that we talk about doesn't actually exist. a congressional research service report points out that the name does not refer to any, quote, organized command and control structure with national reach. the director of national

intelligence has testified that the opposition to the assad regime is comprised of 1,500 separate militias. we call a bunch of these mili a militias that are anti-assad and anti-islamist, we hope, the free syrian army. joshua landis whose column is an essential source estimated that nonjihadi groups collectively control about 5% of syria. an american strategy of escalating air strikes in syria even if coupled with ground forces would wish that the weakest and most disorganized forces in syria somehow become the strongest, first defeating isis, then the assad regime all the while fighting off al nusra. the chance that all this will happen is remote. far more likely, escalating bombings in syria will produce chaos and insta bibility on the ground further destroying syria

promoting the free for all in which jihadi groups strive. for any strategy to work in syria it needs a military component and the political one. the military one, a credible ground army is weak. the political one is nonexistence. the crucial underlying reason for the violence in iraq and syria is a sunni revolt against governments that the sunnis view at hostile regimes. the political resolution is some kind of power sharing arrangement in these two capitals but this is not something the united states can engineer. certainly not in syria. it tried it in iraq and despite 176,000 troops on the ground, tens of billions of dollars, and david petraeus' skillful leadership, the deals he brokered started unraveling within months of his departure, well before american troops had all left. the only strategy against isis that has any chance of working is containment, bolstering the

neighbors who are willing to fight militarily and politically, neighbors who are threatened far more than the united states is. they include most importantly iraq and jordan, lebanon, turkey, and the gulf states. the greatest challenge it so get the iraqi government to make serious concessions to sunnis so they are recruited into the fight, something that has not happened so far. all this should be coupled with counterterrorism, which means strikes at key isis targets as well as measures to track foreign fighters, stop their movements, intercept their funds, and protect the neighbors and the west from jihad spilling over. the obama administration is pursuing many elements of this strategy. it should be forthright about the challenges and abandon the grander rhetoric which is setting itself up for escalation and failure. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. let's get started.

well, i have just told you how i think the united states and its allies should deal with isis in syria and iraq, but how much do we have to worry about isis as a threat to the homeland in the united states or other countries far from the war zone? last week the state department issued an updated worldwide caution that highlighted the threat from isis and said authorities believe there's an increased likelihood of reprisal attacks throughout the world. warnings have been issued in the u.s. and uk about an isis threat to law enforcement in those nations. admiral james savrides is the former supreme allied commander at nato. he is the author of a new book "the accidental admiral." daniel benjamin was coordinator for counterterrorism at the state department. he joins me from dartmouth, new

hampshire, where he directs the dickey enser for international understanding. daniel benjamin, you have written that you believe the isis threat to the united states and i think to the west is being exaggerated. why don't you explain. >> that's correct, fareed. i think that there's been a lot of hyperventilation about the threat. i think over the long term the safe havens that have been established in iraq and in syria do pose a significant challenge for the united states, but right now this conflict is primarily about sunni versus shia. this is an insurgent force. it's not a terrorist force first and foremost, although they use terrorist tactics locally against their enemies. the u.s. authorities, whether from the national counterterrorism center or from the department of homeland security or from the fbi have said they don't know of any plotting against the united states at home, and, in fact, there's been very little

reporting on any desire to carry out attacks outside of the area. let's remember, this is a group that has not carried out a terrorist attack outside of its immediate neighborhood ever, and that's a major fact. >> jim, it does feel like they've got their hands full, isis that is, between iraq and syria and all the forces that are battling them. >> i think that this is kind of a short-term/long-term set of constraints for us. in the short term i completely agree, they have their hands full. they have peshmerga from the north, iraqi security from the south, bombing in the west. they're very busy. they're going to be in the middle of a three-front war very soon. long term there's not only, as dan mentioned, i think ultimately the threat to the homeland. they have said they intend to fly the black flag of isis over the white house. i don't know how much more direct they can be. >> you have said it's only a

matter of time before jihadists are headed back home to wreak havoc. >> it's a matter of time. will it be different with individuals, different countries, different cultures? absolutely. but that threat is building. it's a looming tower, as one person said about 9/11 a few years back. >> dan, one of the thing they seem to be doing is goading the united states and the west. presumably that is the point of the excuses. th that is the point of talking about raising the black flag. how seriously should we take it? people say one should have read mein kampf to have understood hitler's aim. how seriously do you take it? >> well, there's no question they're no great fans of the united states, fareed. i think they were surprised a bit by the reaction to the decapitations. i think they probably miscalculated there. i think it's also important to

calculate in here how much their presentation of themselves as hating the west, as being violently anti-american, is really aimed at selling themselves to potential recruits. they have gone out of their way to prove that they are the most brutal group anyone has seen, and this is really worked for them. it's attracted an awful lot of people to their cause. recruitment is fastly higher for isis than it ever was for any of the other groups whether in afghanistan or in iraq after u.s. invasions in those countries. so i think over the long term they will want to attack the united states, but i don't think that we should just blindly assume that they're coming for us now, as a lot of public figures have said, i think without a lot of concrete evidence other than their statements. >> you worry though that that is their long-term goal, that is what they're trying to do. how much though do you accept

dan benjamin's point? every jihadi group wants to be fighting the united states. that's what gives them a kind of great ideological halo and appeal, and in a strange way, we have played into that game a little bit. >> i think they're after street cred, street credibility. they're earning it. what i would mention in terms of recruitment is the financing. i think the kind of visibility they're attracting gives them capital in addition to the smuggling, the human savory and the other awful things they're doing. as they get more money and it couples with these aspirations and couples with recruitment, i think it's long term but long term being the three to five-year future. again, we want this to be an away game, not a home game. >> pleasure to have you both on. it was fascinating conversation. very important. next on "gps," the other supposed looming threat. we will dig into ebola and find out what we have to fear and not fear. kid: hey dad, who was that man?

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according to the world health organization the number of known cases of ebola in this current outbreak is swiftly approaching 10,000, but the w.h.o. says by the end of the year there could be 10,000 new cases of ebola each week, and that's just in the three hardest hit countries alone. these are guinea, sierra leone, and liberia, all neighbors in west africa. that would mark a huge acceleration in the outbreak. should we be worried? my next guest is dr. peter piot. he was a co-discoverer of the disease and a former undersecretary-general of the united nations. when i first interviewed him this summer, he told me we might have reached a turning point for the better, but he gold "the guardi guardian" earlier this month he fears an unimaginable tragedy. welcome, doctor. explain what you worry about. explain what that "guardian" article was referring to.

>> what you're see something unprecedented. this is the first ebola epidemic where entire nations are involved, where big cities are affected, and i continue to be worried that the response to the epidemic is really running behind the virus. the virus is still running much faster. there are not enough beds to treat patients, and people continue to be infected. >> but you worry about the fact that this could spread in the very large, very con jegested cityings in africa, for example in nigeria. at that point this could really spread like lightning. >> first of all, the three countries that are affected are being totally destabilized. not only in terms of people who are killed by ebola, their families, the orphans that are now coming up because the parents die, but the economy has come to a standstill. people are massively dying from other diseases that are normally treatable like malaria or women

die while giving birth because hospitals are abandoned or are full with ebola patients. so that is a very, very destabilizing factor, and that's going to go in its impact beyond ebola. now, the big question will be, will this spread to surrounding countries? the good news is that both nigh year jeer ya and senegal have been able to contain a number of imparted cases. in senegal there was not even any secondary case. in nigeria there were a number of people who were infected and died but it's not given rise to an outbreak in lagos. so that shows if you act decisively and early enough, that this can be controlled. this was an avoidable catastrophe. >> what are the measures that need to be taken? you say the virus is still running ahead of the response. what is needed at this point?

>> well, first of all, something that we've learned through doctors without borders, and that is how to treat patients, to care for them, and isolate them so they don't infect others but also to reduce more or less mortality. secondly, we need to protect health care workers. we've seen it in the u.s., we've seen it in europe, but in africa over 200 nurses and doctors and lab workers have died from ebola. that can be dealt with by protective gear. the biggest challenge for the future will be stopping transmission in the community because the number of beds that are now being built by the u.s. army, by the uk army, i mean, they're going to fulfill the needs hopefully for -- within the next few weeks, but stopping transmission in the community around funerals. that is still going on, and so

we have to change people's behaviors and beliefs and also what to do with all the patients who are still at home who can infect people while they're being transported to hospital units. so that's going to be a massive undertaking of behavior change, and that will have to come from within. >> what seems different this time around from 10 or 15 years ago is much more trade, much more travel, much more contact. is it something that the united states or western europe should worry about? are we overreacting or is it possible that the united states could see this disease spread through global travel and transport? >> well, as long as there is a major epidemic in west africa, the rest of the world is also at risk. that is an additional reason for providing assistance to stop the epidemic. and because there will be people who will, you know, show up be

it in europe, in u.s., or in china, and there the greatest risk, as we've already seen, is for the nurses, for the doctors, you know, who care for someone with ebola virus infection and disease. but i'm not worried about an epidemic in the larger population because, after all, in order to be infected with ebola, you need really very close contact with someone who is sick, with their body fluids, and that's a situation that you only have really in a hospital setting or care at home. so there will be cases. i think we should not be naive about that, but i think it can be contained, and i also hope that the great media coverage that we're seeing now will make sure that people are aware how to protect themselves, how to

alert the medical staff and so on when they think they are at risk. >> dr. piot, pleasure to have you on. thank you. >> thank you very much. >> next on "gps," you might smile at the relatively cheap prices you're paying at the pump these days, but vladimir putin and hassan rouhani are probably not happy about it. i will explain. ♪

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now, for our what in the world segment. since the financial crisis of 2008, the global economy has been in slow motion. as a result, commodities prices have fallen dramatically, but there was one great puzzle, the price of oil had continued to go up, up, up. in 2007 before the crash oil cost $72 a barrel on average. by 2012 brent crude was trading at over $111 a barrel on average, a second year of historically high levels according to the u.s. energy information administration. well, now the trend has turned. prices have dropped dramatically. this week brent oil, the global benchmark, fell to about $80 a barrel, nearing a four-year low.

why? well, today the world is awash in oil. there's too much supply and too little demand. the world's largest and second largest economies are probably the most responsible, that would be the united states and china. the china piece of the story is fascinating. >> the head of morgan stanley's emerging markets investments points out over the last decade chinese oil demand has been increasing on average 7% a year until now. the chinese juggernaut seemingly insatiable appetite for commodities like oil has screeched to a halt. growth in chinese demand for oil is currently running at about zero. this comes as a huge surprise. china accounted for about 50% of the increase in oil demand over the past ten years. the second reason for the plummeting oil prices, too much supply. the newest report from the international energy agency, the energy industry's watch dog,

shows that global oil supply in september was almost 2.8 million barrels per day higher than the previous year. it's not all about the saudis pumping more. it turns out there's a new player in town that's worrying the old oil giants. that's the united states. thanks to the shale revolution, demand for oil is down, but additionally domestic oil production is at record levels. citigroup predicts that the u.s. could export as many as 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2015. and the oil prices could dip even lower. reuters reports this week that saudi officials were saying they would accept oil prices below $90 per barrel and perhaps down to $80 for as long as a year or two. they hope perhaps that by doing this they will discourage the search for shale, natural gas, and other such alternatives to their oil. but are these low prices really sustainable? well, char ma's team at morgan

stanley compiled data for "gps" which show what is each country would have to charge for a barrel of oil in order to balance it's national budget. saudi arabia just has to charge $88 per barrel to balance the books according to charma's analysis. this is up from only a few years ago as it expanded its welfare state in the wake of the arab spring. still, it's affordable for the saudis but not every country is as lucky. libya for instance needs oil to be at $180 per barrel to break even. iran has to charge $143 to be out of the red. russia, which is highly dependent on energy has to charge $110 a barrel. and russia's economy is already being squeezed by western sanctions, so much so that declining oil prices have decimated the ruble, russia's currency. in fact, energy fluctuations have historically played a large role in russia. the collapse of the soviet union was prompted in part by a plunge

in oil prices which weakened the government. perhaps president putin ought to watch his back with oil now trading at $30 below his break even point. so let's see how this plays out and how low the saudis are really willing to push the price of oil. however low they go, we are witnessing a true shift in the power dynamics of oil. charma put it best when he said to me, there are winners and losers. the winners are in the oil consumer countries. the losers are in oil producing countries, so basically the world has been turned on its head from a decade ago. next on "gp s," oil isn't the only thing that's cheap these days. we seem to be in the midst of a market sell-off. do we need to brace ourselves for another crash? i will ask two of my favorite guests on the economy, martin wolf and rana faruha. and stay awake during the day. this is called non-24, a circadian rhythm disorder

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what has gotten stock markets and economists worried? wall street had a rough week, to say the least, as did major markets around the globe, and many observers see europe as poised to take a third dip into recession. the head of the imf says the world economy is not in a new normal but a new mediocre. what is happening? we will bring in the big brains, martin wolf is the chief economics commentator at the financial times and author of requesting the shift and the shocks: what we've learned and still have to learn from the financial crisis," and rana foroohra is time magazine's managing editor. why is it things look like they're in worse shape than people thought even just a month or two ago? >> i think we need to separate two things. first, the markets. the markets often overreact and often they predict, as it were, ten of the next four recessions.

so they overpredict. i think a lot of correction is they're realizing that u.s. monetary policy is changing. they don't quite know what that will mean. it's a new world. we've had this incredibly easy policy now since late 2008 and certainly more than six years later or about six years later it's changing, and i think that's a big part of it. but in addition to that, there is some genuine news. the european situation looks very bad. there's obviously a lot of bad geopolitical news. radical uncertainty is i think what we're seeing and the markets which were very generously priced which had really i think run ahead of themselves, particularly the stock markets are doing what's probably a healthy correction, but, of course, you never know when a healthy correction turns into something more serious. >> the big story it seems to me, if it is true, is that china seems to be slowing down and more than they are admitting. >> yeah, i think so. we've been hearing that growth

is at 7% from the government but i hear analysts say it's 4%, 5%, that it's really much more slow than it has been in the past. and what the ricochet effect of that is going to be is still unclear. if you look back to the asian crisis in the late 1990s, the u.s. was still growing pretty probu robustly through that. this time around it will be interesting to see. china is a huge part of the drop in commodities prices we've seen and what the effect for u.s. exporters is going to be is still up for grabs as well. when you combine that with europe slowing down and perhaps tipping into recession and look at these structural imbalances that still exist five years on from the end of the crisis, it's not a great picture. >> is the big story in europe that germany is actually slowing down and if so, why is this happening? >> in europe i think germany is a symptom, it's not a cause. we've always -- or most people have misunderstood the nature of germany. it's not a locomotive. it's a caboose, as it were. it depends on other countries' demand. >> the china of europe. >> well, even worse, the germans

have never taken on board the fact that they've got a continental economy which must generate its own demand. they expect the rest of the world to generate demand for them and it's not going to happen. >> this he want to export to the world and they need to start consuming more. >> culturally -- >> culturally and politically very difficult. not only do they do, but they support others to do it, but their policy has been neither to support others to do it, they want them all to be austere like them or not do it thenmselves. they want to turn the eurozone into a greater germany and the trouble is there isn't anyone else out in the rest of the world to do the buying except the dear old u.s. everybody hopes for a huge credit boom in the u.s. i hope it won't happen and i don't think it will. >> what about the u.s.? it was once said it was the cleanest of the dirty shirts in the pile. >> the prettiest house on the ugly block. i think it is. that's what's kind of amazing.

the u.s. is really the only solid leg right now, but a 3% recovery is really not robust enough to drag the rest of the world along. it's kind of amazing that a developed country like the u.s. may actually beat global growth this year. that's possible, and that's really quite something. >> what is the central lesson the united states should learn from your book? >> the central lesson i suppose might be if they do try to get out of this crisis, which i think is the fear, through generating another private sector credit boom because there's nothing else they've really got intelligently to do, then they could end -- the u.s. could end up four, five, six years from now in an even worse mess than before. essentially the adjustment to the crisis is incomplete and the incentive to start leveraging up again because there's nothing else going, the government is not going to do it, the private sector will then go into the process, the financial sector i think will become more stressed. it's to my mind still too highly

leveraged and we might have a worse crisis. >> and that's really possible? >> i think that's possible and that's the warning i end with. >> thank you both. fascinating, somewhat sobering. next on "gps," i love thinking about history and immigration patterns and where people have come from but i have never taken the time to consider my own roots. my father used to boast we came from a central asian warrior tribe. did we? find out when we come back. secl tomorrows a reality for over 19 million people. [ alex ] transamerica helped provide a lifetime of retirement income. so i can focus on what matters most. [ female announcer ] everyone has a moment when tomorrow becomes real. transamerica. [ female announcer ] everyone has a moment when tomorrow becomes real. an unprecedented program arting busithat partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years. from biotech in brooklyn, to next gen energy in binghamton, to manufacturing in buffalo...

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for the past couple of months, cnn correspondents and anchors, including me have been doing deep reporting on a topic that's rather foreign to most of us. that topic, ourselves, our family histories, where we came from. no short, our roots. it was something that didn't come naturally to me at all, but in the end it was fascinating. come along with me on my journey.

you know, i'm curious about the world and about how it works and about what's going on politically and economically and technologically around the world. i'm not that curious about where i specifically come from. i'm just one guy among the billions of people on earth, and i have never until this project, never, ever looked into it in any way one way or the other. i came to america and i naturalized and now i'm an indian-american. what i know is both my parents were muslim. i know that my mother's family came from an area and moved to bombay at some point several generations ago. my father's side we know almost nothing. my father was orphaned by the time he was 6 or 8. he's not even sure of that. my father grew up in modest circumstances in a small town

outside of bombay and really was a self-made man in every sense of the word and wasn't very curious about his own background and his own past. my father is dead, and my mother is still in india. >> fareed was only 6 months old when his father fought the elections and won and became a minister. >> my father, by the way, occasionally claimed, you know, turkish ancestry or central asian ancestry, but always thought he did that in just as a way of suggesting he had some kind of, you know, warrior past that we didn't know about. since i didn't know much about my roots, i took a dna test.

michelle, a family historian with ancestry.com, delivered the results to me. >> what we have are some documents about the life of your father. >> gosh. >> this is a passenger list from the 7th of july, 1944. this is rafiq zakaria. what this is saying is he had left bombay and was headed to the uk. >> he would tell one story about this voyage. he had the highest rank in the university of bombay, and if you had the number one rank, you got a full paid scholarship with a first class ticket to go to london. now, he gets it in the middle of world war ii, and so he gets on the boat, and the guy who is checking his ticket says to him why are you going to london

right now? the germans are bombing london every day, every night, and he says to him, but i'm going to get an education, and the guy who is looking at the ticket tells him, you're crazy, but come on board. >> we had you take a dna test and both of your parents are from india, so the 85% south asia or indian region shouldn't come as a surprise, but you have got other things here as well. when we look at asia central combined with the italy, grease, iberian peninsula, we believe there's some middle eastern influence there as well. >> this is all the old lands of the ottoman empire and there would have been muslim migration probably from there into india. >> this european jewish and the

poll knee sha -- >> the poll knee sha is a bit of a twist i would not have expected. the european jewish is again probably part of that old ottoman empire. places like iraq, you know, b d baghdad was a third jewish for most of the 19th century so it wouldn't be surprising. to put what i learned into some broader context, i decided to talk to an expert on migrations and globalization. does the 1% european/jewish surprise you? >> well, in fact, not. >> the ottomans had many, many. so those cities like istanbul, baghdad -- >> damascus, so i'm not surprised. >> what i realize is when i look at these things compared to somebody who has longer roots in america or europe is that in a country like india that's very poor, unless you came from a really fancy family, there were

no records of any kind, and so my father's age is guessed. the birth date is guessed. it's the date probably that he first went to school. >> yes. that's totally typical. when i did some field work many years ago, one of the joking observations i made was exactly about the absence of this kind of precision. there is no sense that there was an objective fact out there somewhere that someone knew. it was a matter to be negotiated because there were no facts. >> given what you know now, we're having your mother tested and her dna results are coming. >> my son fareed asked me to try my luck. i cannot tell how much we will get out of the little knowledge that i am able to put before you, but let us see.

>> all right. i'm getting ready to tape the show but my mom's dna results have just come in. guess what? i'm indian. my mother is 97% asian with 96% being from south asia. my european dna and my polynesian traces, are, therefore, from my father and the majority of my caucasian roots also come from my dad. my dad used to always say he came from central asia. i think he imagined himself some kind of central asian nobility. at least we know there is some small dna justification for this. >> who is that with the chef? >> that's me. >> that's you? >> my children are consummate americans by which i mean that they are not that interested in where we come from. they're more interested i think

in where they're going. i'm very proud of the fact that i come from india. they've been to india many, many times. >> who is that? >> me. >> wait. your glasses. >> but they don't have a deep curiosity, certainly not one derived out of a sense of crisis of identity. >> that's you. >> they have no crisis of identity. they're american. as i said, i was just one of 13 cnn anchors and hosts who sought out their roots. my colleagues' stories are terrific. you can see them all this tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. eastern and pacific. next on "gps," you've heard of the thrilla in manila where muhammad ali fought joe frazier. get ready for the battle in brisbane where russian president putin might be fighting the

australian prime minister. i'll explain. ♪searching with devotion ♪for a snack that isn't lame ♪but this... ♪takes my breath away

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brazil is in the midst of a very close presidential race. polls suggest the incumbent is essentially tied with her opposition candidate. a runoff election is scheduled to take place this time next week. the global post pointed out that voting is mandatory in brazil between the ages of 18 and 70, which brings me to my question -- in which of the following countries is voting also mandatory, belgium, singapore, australia, or uruguay. stay tunes and we'll tell you the right answer. this weeks's book of the week is "the system worked: how the world stopped another great depression" by daniel dresna. the author makes the provac of

it argument that all the much maligned global institutions, the imf, theg-20, the wt o, actually performed brilliantly and rescued the world from a total economic collapse. it's a rare an convincing story in which bureaucrats and politicians come off pretty well. and now for the last look. these days polite is no longer a part of politics. case in point, abbott versus putin. listen to australian prime minister tony abbott this week discussing the 38 australian citizens and residents who died when malaysian airlines flight 17 was downed over ukraine. >> look, i'm going to shirt front mr. putin. >> the prime minister said he would, quote, shirt front president putin at the g-20 summit next month. that's not some kind of shirtless showdown many joked could have been expected from

these two leaders. it turns out that shirt front is an aussie rules football phrase which means to bump someone front on. like this. and this. and this. ouch. the media relations manager for the league told us it was historically intended to take someone out of the game. well, that's what tony abbott would like to do to putin, take him out of the political game. a russian diplomat quickly told australian media that president putin is, quote, a professional judo wrestler. on the other hand, abbott will have the home field advantage since the summit will be in brisbane. the correct answer to the question is actually all of the above. it was a trick question. if you look at this map from the global post which uses data from the cia, all of these countries have some degree of mandatory voting. the consequences for failing to vote where compulsory can vary

from fines to possible imprisonment to disenfranchisement among other things. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. good morning. i'm brian stelter. it's sunday, october 19th, and it's time for "reliable sources." fear of ebola spreading faster than ebola. we're examining some of the unreliable sources out there in the media. plus, wanted posters for a tv medical correspondent after she breaks her quarantine. i'll talk to the woman who broke the story. and later what is the most powerful media company of all? it's probably nielsen, the ratings monopoly. now a software bug has some wondering whether we can really trust the ratings. a former president of this network, cnn, is here to tell me what he thinks. i am going to be up front with you this morning. i don't have a perfect answer to the questions i'm about to