is a crucial state that republicans really need to win. and that would mean that the democratic opponent in coal. >> caller: would have to win 63% of independents to make up that gap. so the early voting is being looking promising for republicans there. now, in georgia, places like that, where you need -- where voter turnout is important, that's a tough race for republicans right now. democrats have reached their 30% target margin for black voters early voting. which is not good for republicans somewhere like georgia. so early voting is crucial. >> so have democrats capitalized on early voting more than republicans or is it too soon to say? are we still missing huge groups basically? >> i agree with tara that it is something democrats have done slightly better than republicans. but as you know, with both parties, one party starts doing something we also, the other party catches up. but overall, early voting is such a crucial thing for our democracy overall. we want more people voting.

we want to make the process easier for all voters. and what you see is time and time again when you open up the process and make it easier, you see more people in fact coming out and speaking and giving their voice to government. but i also put a caution on some of these early vote members. you can't always tell what is going on, although we want to sort of tell what is going on in an early vote because we actually don't know if these are what i'd call our obama surge voters or are just tried and true regular voters turning out in higher number. let's be clear. democrats need for the electorate to look more like 2012 than it did in 2010. so who is voting early becomes a critical x factor. >> tara, historical patterns, a couple factors going on. the president's low approval rating. you've also got these open seats. sort of like a perfect storm. how will all of this seem to be

helping the republicans? >> the enthusiasm gap is huge. and that matters. voter participation during midterms is always lower than in presidential races. it's usually around 40%. so enthusiasm is really crucial. and the democrats are struggling with that because their core constituencies are usually minorities, single women and younger voters. and they don't turn out during mid term elections. so that's why you see the whole intellectual war on women in certain places. y the despicable tactics that they're using in arkansas and georgia, using ferguson to gin up black voters. in 2010 -- 2012 to 2010 and 2014, there was actually a larger increase in black voter, black participation in north carolina since they instituted the voter i.d. law.

it was voted on. there was a 29% increase from last primary to this one. so those things are actually intellectual dishonest. but their tactics the democrats are using because they're desperate. they need those voter ares to come out. cornell knows. he wrote a memo on it last month. >> what happens if the republicans do win the senate? is this just two years of absolutely nothing happening or do you think maybe it could motivate some of the politicians to kind of get the work done that needs to be done? >> let's be clear. hopefully we'll talk a little about this further down the road here. but let's be clear. the republicans should win the senate. they should win the senate. they should roll up large numbers in the house. when you look at historical patterns, presidents on average lose 29 seats in second term in houses races. the perfect storm is set up, but nowhere do you see republicans running up the score here and

that has to be problematic to them. and to a certain extent, rand paul got in trouble with his fellow republicans but for speaking the truth. and that is that the republican brand is not in the best shape. we spend a lot of time talking about president obama's approval number, but his approval number is 20 points better than congressional republicans. i think the perfect storm was set up for them. right now. but i think they may not in fact reach it. because they in fact do have their own brand problems. they run the campaign basically about attacking the president. >> tara, next we'll talk about another factor in tuesday's election, and that is president obama. will his low approval rating be a drag on the democrats. mm. feel it. j.j. watt? you know there's a game on tonight right, amy? oh, i know, but it's my turn to chaperone. right, but you could do both. how? nfl mobile is now free with the more everything plan from verizon. i have verizon! download it, you can watch the game right here.

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so let's get more insight into these razor clomid term elections. tara is here, a republican strategist. and colonel, a political commentator. i want to start with the factors fueling the republican high hopes for tuesday. one reason can't ignore that the president's popularity is sagging. he is not campaigning in virtually any competitive races and he's spending a lot of time in states where frankly the democratic candidate is in between shape. so cornell, you' were a polster

for barack obama. has he beenic candidates? >> regardless of the president, second term whether republican or democrat, the president's party tends to lose office, lose seats. that is set up. so you have three things working for republicans right now. you have history, you have geography, you have degree ow n demographics. midterm elections are usually older less diverse electorate. so you have three factors lining up. and the president's job approval was 51%. it would mean absolutely nothing in a red state like kentucky. what is most interesting right now is how in a red state like kentucky with the most powerful republican on the ticket, and

you have toss up race. that is not about the president, that is about the republican brand. >> tara is shaking her head, i see the wheels turning. george bush was kept away from republican candidates back in 2006. do you agree with what cornell is saying? >> i applaud cornell for the political gymnastics that he's trying to put forth. but let's be honest. candidates have gone out of their way not to go anywhere near president obama or have him anywhere near them. he's been toxic for the democrats. yes, they call it the six year itch. george bush lost six seats in the senate. but president obama is poised to lose historic levels in the house and senate potentially. if the republicans reach 13 gained seats in the house, that will be more losses for a sitting president than hoover in 1928. so it does not look good for president obama at all. look where he's shown up. rhode island, maryland, these are noncompetitive places.

when he went to maryland recently for the gubernatorial candidate there, democrat, people were walking out of his speech. and that candidate lost eight points in the poll that came out after that. so it is about president obama's policies. he said it himself. and i know the democrats were cringing saying, oh, god priest please we didn't want it to be. >> no let's me rejoin. it's about his policies. okay.to be. >> no let's me rejoin. it's about his policies. okay. gender equity, raising the minimum wage, college affordability for middle class families. every democrat in the country is in fact running on that agenda. but, no, you don't see president obama going into a state like kentucky where it is traditionally red. it would be insane to do so. typically, no, republicans want to nationalize election, easiest way whether talking about republican or democrat is basic campaign sense that you make it

about the president. so absolutely the president shouldn't be out there trying to help nationalize the election. >> but he did. >> these states from georgia to kentucky to louisiana where republicans should be running up the score, they are not. because in fact they're not where they need to be on these issues. >> let me ask you this question. let's say the republicans do take the senate and then have the house as is expected. will there be a spirit of cooperation as we saw sort of during the end of the clinton presidency, or is it just going to become so much more entrenched that in fact there will be two more years of less than absolutely nothing? >> yeah, i'm not optimistic. barack obama is no bill clinton by any means. he is not that level of politician. bill clinton was a genius and he understood how to work with the other side of the aisle and he was a consummate politician. barack obama lacks tremendously in that area. he does not have the same relationships and he is

in-trance gept. i think he will deciding in further. you will see more executive orders. he's very narcicisstic. it's always about him. so a miracle that there will be cooperation? no way. >> cornell, i will give you the last word. >> he's narcicisstic. they love president clinton so much, they impeached him. no. of course mitch mcconnell said his number one job was to make sure the president was a failed presidency. i'm taking him at his word. that's why you see the polarization. is th this is not bill clinton. >> a great conversation. thank you both. we appreciate your stopping by here on a saturday night. stay with cnn for election night coverage, tuesday night just three days from now, beginning at 5:00 a.m. eastern. and next, lower prices for gas here in the u.s. are having a very different impact on people in iran. will it play into nuclear talks. we'll touch base on that next.

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next week will mark the 35th anniversary of what many consider the first brush the united states had with political islam. the iran hostage crisis. it ignited november 4, 1979. that day, students who followed the ayatollah khomeini stormede

americans hostage. don't miss our special tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m.. fast forward and iran is approaching a crucial deadline. it's the final day to reach an agreement with the united states and five other nations on its nuclear program. a program that has led to years of sanctions. the sanctions have helped lead to analysts say a surge in inflation in iran. with me now, author of the devil we know, dealing with the new iranian super power, national security analyst bob baer. so you look at iran 35 years ago and you look at it now. is it just as conservative, is it more so? >> i've lived this history and i wrote a book about it. and i wrote in my book that one day we would actually have some sort of detente with iran. i'm not sure i believed it, but we've moved toward that. and let's not forget that it was iran that attacked the marines

in beirut. and so, yes, we've come a long way. the fact that we're this negotiations with them at times is very important. but the world has changed, as well. look at iraq. we're exceptionally the ally of iran and iraq against isis. so i think we're cholecystect y cholecystectomier to some sort of formal agreement than we've been in all these 35 years. >> it's interesting, i might dispute the use of the word ally when we talk about iran, but iran is also dealing with very low oil prices. about $83 a gallon. when iran is reportedly about $35 a barrel just to balance its budget. so is iran really suffering? because by the looks of it, they don't seem to much care when you look at their political leaders. >> well, of course they don't appear to care. but it really does hurt the sanctions have worked. we put them in a corner. they have got a quickly growing population, high unemployment.

they have a lot of subsidies. they haven't gotten rid of. so, yes, if oil keeps on falling, there will be real problems in that country. so they have incentives to cooperate with us . let's not forget rouhani was radical, too, and i'm hoping he'll be able to get them to reach an agreement. >> describe to all of us what's at stake with the nuclear program and whether you think that low oil prices will actually motivate iran to accept a deal. >> well, i think they're going to agree to inspections at a certain level on the sentcentr e centrifuges. the rest of it. but things they're not going to do and things we shouldn't push them on is take a look at the history of their development of a nuclear bomb. i think they probably stopped according to the assessments in 2003. but i just don't see them opening up the files to either

the united states or the united nations on their previous programs. i think we should just be thankful that they've apparently stopped building a bomb. >> all right. thank you so much. we're going to be talking a lot about iran in the. co-i coming days. up next, reunited and it feels so good. it's a reunion that has an ebola survivor back with her.

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three americans have been found dead in mexico just across the texas border in the town of el control. authorities say they're questioning members of an elite law enforcement tactical unit to see if they may have been involved in the murders. rosa flores is in on the story. who are the victims and how did they die? >> imagine this, there's a father who has to identify his three children, except his children have been tied from their hands, their feet, they have a shot to the head, and authorities say that their bodies are so decomposed that they're having to use tattoos, clothing, and also shoes to identify the bodies. so this is what this father had to do. and here's what we know from authorities. four bodies were found in el control, which is just south of the texas border. one of them was a mexican national.

the other three, these three siblings that we've been talking about, ages 26 to 21, a woman and her two brothers. here's what's so odd about this. they're from a tiny town in south texas of a few thousand people. that's the town that i grew up in in south texas. it's called progresso. i didn't go to high school at the same time that they did, but they went to my high school. so i talked to one of their friends late last night, and they told me that the wake is today. i tried calling her today. she's not answering the phone. my guess is that she's in mexico right now. >> first of all, how long were they missing? what were they doing in mexico? >> they have been missing for about two and a half weeks. what authorities are saying is that they were visiting their father. the father lives in mexico, the mother lives in the united states. they were visiting their father when they were allegedly kidnapped. >> why are members of this law enforcement elite tactical unit under investigation right now? why are they being questioned? >> this is fascinating, because it's an elite group called

hercules, and this group was introduced not too long ago by the mayor of matamoros, which is just east of el control, south of brownsville, texas. and it's an elite group. she introduced it as a way to keep the community safe. the attorney general from this state says that they are being questioned because they are linked to the kidnappings in this particular case. and so they are interviewing them as witnesses are linking them to the kidnapping, and authorities are saying that if they have to question the mayor, that they'll do that as well. i actually talked to the fbi, deb, and the fbi is assisting their partners in mexico in this particular case. >> and just quickly, is there some indication that perhaps this tactical unit had ties to any of the cartels? >> that's a great question, because this particular area is cartel territory. and so it's a very dangerous area. i grew up there. a lot of people that i know don't cross into mexico anymore.

like we used to when we were growing up, to buy food and trinkets or whatever. you just cross over to mexico casually. you don't do that anymore. >> all right, rosa flores, thank you. and stay on this story. it's going to be fascinating to see what happens ultimately. appreciate it. thank you. and here are the headlines at this hour. co-pilot michael alsbury was killed when a billionaire's passenger spacecraft had a catastrophic failure during a test flight. he was 39 years old, a seasoned pilot. his body was discovered in california's mohavi desert by this man. he managed to parachute to the ground but was seriously injured. siebold is alert and talking to his family and doctors both work for richard branson to perform test flights on virgin's spaceship 2. branson is determined to find out what caused the deadly accident. >> we do understand the risks

involved and we're not going to push on blindly. to do so would be an insult to all those affected by this tragedy. we're going to learn from what went wrong. >> and the ntsb is investigating the incident. good news in the fight against ebola. the only person under treatment in the united states is improving. new york doctor craig spencer is no longer in serious condition, and dallas nurse nina pham is now back with her dog bentley. he had been under quarantine as well. >> i feel like bentley reentering my life is yet another reminder of hope and encouragement for me moving forward and fulfilling my life to its fullest with my best friend at my side again. and finally, before you go to bed tonight, remember to set your clock back one hour. daylight savings time ends officially at 2:00 a.m. the point is to make the best use of daylight hours. 70 nations follow daylight saving time. up next, a double shot of

mike roe's "somebody's gotta do it." as always, stay with cnn and cnn.com for breaking news. i'm deborah feyerick. thanks for joining us. see you tomorrow. hi, i'm mike rowe. last time i went home, i got the crabs. i got them real bad. got them all over my hands, all over my face. my parents were appalled. well, i'm going home again. this time for an orgy and my parents are not invited. just me, a couple of close friends and oysters in an attempt to save the chesapeake bay. new show, same mission, same guy. the year was 1969. i was 7. i walked into my parents' house