but democrats say the polls don't tell the whole story. they say they're confident to keep control of the senate chamber. the deciding factor will be voter turn-out. how is that looking this morning? cnn has this election covered like no other network, we have reporters live on the ground in every state with a key race. >> all right. alisyn, let's get to the pros out there covering everything for us, cnn chief congressional correspondent dana bash in washington, martin savidge in georgia, rene marsh in north carolina and brian todd in new hampshire. these are big states we have to watch. the situations are unclear to say the least. let's start with you, dana, we keep saying the magic number is six, but tough look at eight, because of iowa and colorado. may have to look at nine or ten because of what democrats could make happen in kansas and georgia. how do you see it from a surprise perspective? >> yes, i think republicans are

feeling bullish this morning, but they're most worried about kansas, as you said. the republican incumbent there is, is in a race for his life. against an independent, greg orman, who won't say which party he will caucus with, the other state that everybody who i talked to who is following this and strategizing about this from both parties, is north carolina. for several reasons, one is if, there's an incumbent democrat, kay hagan, she's been a couple points ahead in the polls. but republicans feel they might be able to surge there, if they do, that is going to be very telling for what kind of night it's going to be for republicans. a better night than perhaps even they think right now. >> you got battling narratives, the republicans who put out that this is a referendum on poor leadership and it has a name and it is president obama and you have the democrat narrative, which is somewhat of an unknown and seems to be about running

scared. this will all come home to roost in iowa specifically, these two story lines have been playing out. how do you see it? >> iowa is so fascinating for that reason. because you have a state where the president, his political career was born. he a surprise win there and the caucuses beat hillary clinton back in 2008. won the state both times when he was on the ballot for president in the general elections. but he has suffered there. in the polls just like he has across the board so that's why iowa, one of the reasons iowa is key and because it is a purple state and telling about where the electorate is. but there's been a lot of discussion about whether or not it is the right or wrong thing to do for democrats in states even like iowa to keep the president at arm's length. not have him come in and campaign or even do other campaign sort of events for these candidates. and i've been talking to democrats who say that they have

data at their fingertips to show it would have been devastating for the president to come in because the map, not just iowa, but more importantly other states that are having democrats fight for their lives, are so red, are places where president obama were never popular, never won. they think it would have been a much worse scenario for tonight. >> let's start looking at the key states. dana will be keeping you busy. you're going to be busy forever. we might as well have you up from now until 3:00 in the morning. let's go to martin savidge. good to have you with us. you're in georgia, all of the races will have three components. how close it as a function of trending? what does it come down to in that particular state? and what do you have as urgency and expectation of voters. georgia specifically, you had nunn, plilt history, going against purdue had a little bit of a problem early on. now seems to be pulling back. what's the status? >> nay, and i think that is

what's interesting to me is the fact you've got two people who are people who have never run for office before. michelle nunn and david, who is the other candidate here. and what we're talking about david perdue, both new names and both new to the political office. david perdue seems to be pulling it out now as the polls have tightened up and he's got a 3 to 4 percentage point lead over michelle nunn. but she's been the real surprise, she's done well as a democrat. this is a solid red state. but obviously her family name means a lot to people here. so she's done extremely well in raising money and keeping the polls very tight. it's going to all come down to the turn-out today. early polling, there's been a lot of georgians did that. about a million of them predominantly they were white, this would imply that's not necessarily good so far for michelle nunn. how many people show up today and vote? it's going to be crucial. one has to get 50% to win, many

believe are going to a run-off. >> and that's going to be one of the key narratives. do we get the resolutions today? do we have run-offs? early voting will be a big factor to follow. all right. now as dana was saying, rene marsh, in north carolina, this was a key state. kay hagan had to win. for the democrats to really feel they could stave off any mass change. what's the feeling there this morning? well, you know, you talk to both campaigns, they both say they feel confident. but let's look at the numbers here. this is a close race. we're talking about two points. it's also the most expensive senate race. more than $100 million poured into this race here. voter turnout, we're seeing records as far as early voting. more than a million people have cast their votes. we're seeing the enthusiasm at least in early voting. and then throw into the mix this third-party candidate. we're talking about a north

carolina pizza delivery man who just might, just might influence the balance of power in washington, d.c. those are the three headlines that we're looking at here in north carolina, chris. >> what's your best guess so far from what you're hearing from the campaigns about what they think the pizza delivery man, sean huff, what do they think he's going to get? >> you know, i spoke with some republicans yesterday, and they admit that sean huff could actually have an impact on the republican candidate in this race. we're talking about tom tillis. they believe that he could potentially siphon away some of the votes from him. and if that is the case, because this race is so close, we could see that this pizza delivery man does indeed deliver a win to the democratic incumbent, kay hagan. also, we're also talking about a new radio ad here in north carolina. the president has been absent, his voice from this race. we saw senator kay hagan distancing herself from the president.

but we saw that the president now endorsed kay hagen through a radio ad. the question became why now? he has not been a part of her campaign for so long. why now in the final hours? i spoke with one democratic operative, who explained the strategy like this -- the republicans have made this race from the very beginning about president obama. and they've painted him as a liability so what they're thinking now as far as the democrats go, is why not use him as a benefit? because the truth of the matter is, there is a segment of the voting bloc who still supports the president. and it just so happens, that segment that still supports the president are exactly peemt who kay hagen needs to show up at the polls when they open in 30 minutes from now. >> very interesting story. kay hagan bringing in president obama at the last second and the big challenge in that race is a man whose ad says get hog, get high. that's an interesting thing about the two states of politics today. brian todd, in new hampshire, this race keeps creeping up on

people's radar about things to watch, i like that you're in the organic scene. people already lining up behind you to vote. don't see too many disappointed faces. that's good, but we're looking at brown and shaheen, how are you seeing it in. >> chris, this is a virtual tie going into today's vote. depending on what poll you're looking at, jean shaheen in one poll was ahead by two percentage points going into today. in another poll we saw scott brown was ahead by two percentage points. so this state is buzzing and behind me is evidence of that. these people stood in line through the predawn cold and darkness here, to come in here and vote. this is the ward 1 voting district here in manchester, one of the busiest in the entire city, one of the busiest in the state. people come in here and registering, signing up here. they vote over here in these booths. and they put their paper ballots into a tab lator over there. scott brown is seen as one of the republican's best hopes to

pick off a democratic incumbent. his message is jean shaheen has voted with president obama every step of the way. she on the other hand has painted him as an outsider, coming in from massachusetts, not a native of new hampshire, but people here still do know scott brown from his senate term in massachusetts. a lot of voters here in southern new hampshire tend to favor republicans. republicans do do well here in manchester here and nashua, and as everywhere else, voter turnout is key. the secretary of state's office tell he is they expect a turnout of over 50%, better than the 2010 mid-terms. >> that's unusual. you're not hearing that in many places in the country. that state shaping up as a metaphor, a guy who is an outside anywhere scott brown, coming to a place known for its rigid independence, and shaheen painted as the face of the current administration.

brian you're a great snoop, i know you've been listening to what's going on in the table behind you. that's an old-school voting set-up you have there. volunteers, usually older citizens going through books, matching up licenses, sending you to the booths where you're pushing the levers and taking the paper and filing it. how does it seem to be going in terms of smoothness there. >> very smooth so far, chris, and the enthusiasm is palpable. we were surprised this many people came in when the polls opened a few minutes ago. going very smoothly. signed their names up here. you get a chip. see the poker chips, you get a chip and go over here, you get your paper ballot. take it into the booth. do what you got to do. go to a tabulator over there. at the end of the dwa, the tabulator gets all the paper bat bal otts. they take it over to city hall. we're going to be there later today as well. right now going smoothly in manchester, one of the key battlegrounds in new hampshire right here at this voting ward in manchester.

>> expecting a boost in turn-out. remember, brian, don't follow them into the booths, it's a federal law, all right? we'll be keeping an eye on everything here. you're going to hear a lot this could be the one, it's not hype. the polls are so close, the trending is so confusing right now. tough watch so many races. we may not even see it so election night is going to be a big deal. we're starting in the morning because the polls are opening, we'll be with you all day here at cnn and as the starts, get the swell at the polls at the end of the workday, that's when the big coverage will begin, 5:00 p.m. eastern, we're going to keep you going. election night in america until the last vote is counted. which by the way may very well take you right back to us tomorrow morning. and you have a big, fat menu at the polls, battles for the senate, house seats, governor's mansions, reverenda across the country on a set of issues, setting the table for the 2016 race for the white house. alisyn? >> we'll get back to the

election in a second. but first, a gruesome murder case in hong kong to tell you about this morning. that's where a british investment banker has been charged with killing two young women in a high-rise. one of the victims was found stuffed in a suitcase on a 31st floor ban bal cony. police were summoned to this grisly scene by the suspect himself. cnn's cornyn is tracking the latest developments from hong kong. >> dressed in black, rou rourk jutting was escorted to court by the police. he recently worked at merrill lynch and was charged with two counts of murder following the discovery inside his apartment. he called police from the 31st floor of this upscale residential building, telling them to come and investigate. authorities say when officers arrived, they found the body of a young indonesian woman lying

on the floor, her throat slashed. they were also cuts to her buttocks. hours later police discovered a second female body with wounds to the neck, stuffed in a suitcase outside on the balcony, residents in the building tell cnn there was an extremely foul smell inside the luxury apartment. many expressing complete shock after learning what caused it. >> i'm scared. >> why are you scared? >> because of the murder. >> it's a shock, it's shocking. >> not much is known about the two women who were so violently murdered. it is believed they frequented the bars along the strip known as the red light district of hong kong. it's two blocks from where jutting lived. some of the women who work in the red light district tell us they knew the victims. however, were reluctant to share many details. >> sometimes i think up the men will do it maybe for drugs, he

doesn't know what he's doing. >> bank of america refused to comment on the case. it's believed the cambridge graduate joined the investment bank in london back in 2010. moving to hong kong mid last year. jutting did not enter a plea, but will appear in court again next week. anna coryn, cnn, hong kong. >> we'll bring you developments as we get them. let's check in with michaela for more. it is a somber return to class for students and teachers at marysville high school this morning, hundreds of parents, relative and community members were on hand monday to welcome the students back ten days after freshmen jaylen fryberg opened fire, killing three 13-year-old girls before taking his own life. the students had an abbreviated day monday to get reacclimated. the seattle-area school will get back to a full schedule this morning and our thoughts and prayers are with those students

and staff. well the final victim has been recovered from the "costa concordia," three years. workers clearing debris found remain of russell rublo in a cabin. the wrecked ship is now in genoa, where it was moved to be scrapped. rublo was one of 32 people killed in the accident. the commander of u.s. navy s.e.a.l.s is firing back at members of the elite unit for betraying their code of anonymity and taking public credit for killing osama bin laden. rear admiral brian lowsy in an open letter to his troops denounces anyone seeking fame or fortune by revealing details of top-secret missions. a little monday night football for you. the new york giants hosting the indianapolis colts -- no contest. colts quarterback throwing four

touchdown passes. luck setting a franchise record with listenth consecutive 300-yard passing game. the giants fell to 3-5 with their third straight loss. i'm sure there's fans somewhere going -- >> you know who was at the game last night? >> who? >> kate boldaun. >> did baby go, too? >> no. she was home in nine layers of cashmere. >> that's great. >> all right. back to the a election there are up to a dozen senate races that are still neck and neck on this election day so we'll break down the key races with our political panel of experts and we'll get their predictions. money, money. money and politic goes hand in hand. what the money is being spent on is getting increasingly ugly. billions have gone into campaigns, much of it for ads and man, are they getting nasty. we'll show you how low the candidates will go. it's more of a shame campaign

than it is just fanning the flames. take a look. ♪ the mercedes-benz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on. [ho, ho, ho, ho] lease the 2015 e350 for $599 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.

"daily beast," and margaret hoover, cnn republican kmen indicator and ron brownstein, cnn political analyst and editor director for the "national journal," great to have all of you here this morning. let's go through a couple of key political races, ron, in arkansas, senator mark pryor, democrat against congressman tom cotton, republican. the politics have changed, what's so interesting about this race. arkansas embodies the core democratic challenge. seven democrats running in states that voted for mitt romney in 2012 and it's becoming increasingly difficult for parties to win senate seats in states that usually vote the other way for president. the democrats have a strong family name there. in mark pryor, but the underlying part san sympathies of the state are moving in the other direction. >> it looks like the republican has pulled ahead in arkansas. is this still a race to watch

today? >> definitely a race to watch. when democrats have said over the last few years, the republicans are turning into sort of a small regional party, well, this is that region, right? if they can hold this state, then it tells thaw it was a little too premature to sort of write them off. >> what this race also shows is that republicans have picked better candidates to represent them. because tom cot sn no regional guy. he went to harvard for his undergrad. he got a harvard law degree and enlisted in the army and did two tours in average. this is not your average bumpkin from a rural area in arkansas, although he plays to the rural themes within arkansas's policies and politics. >> that's an impressive resumé. he breaks the stereotypes. >> he's a one-term congressman and immediately aimed for the senate and is running a pretty disciplined campaign. the republicans this cycle have avoided the todd aiken gaffes, but in a state that voted 24%

for mitt romney. it's a tough pull for him. >> it's a democrat who tried to survive for being very moderate. being replaced by a republican who will be very conservative and i think you're going to see a widening polarization as a number of these red state democrats who tend to be the most centrist, moderate deal-makers are being replaced by more movement-centered republicans in the south. >> kentucky, mitch mcconnell against allison grimes, a lot of drama in this race. how is it looking? >> she typifies the dilemma. she was a delegate for obama, she wouldn't say that she voted for hill. this is a state where obama was so unpopular, he didn't bother to campaign in kentucky, he wrote state off. the fact that she's competitive tells you something. but the fact that she doesn't

want to use the president to her advantage also tells you something. >> what does it tell us. >> well mitch mcconnell was always going to have a tough race, he suffered a blow when rand paul and the tea party insurgency came to power. i think the banner headline interesting throughout these races, special entry kentucky and arkansas, which was the war on women, a strategy democrats were employing nationally, but specifically locally, allison grimes, taking on mitch mcconnell, sputtered out and failed. a latest poll has mcconnell up over grimes by four points with women. >> the fact that it's been competitive is they have a democratic governor and obama care is very popular in the state there are complex tides, underlying this race. but it looks like mitch mcconnell is going to pull this one out. the only poll that matters is

the one today. >> allison lundgren grimes, the idea that can you run away from a president in your own party is no longer true. in 2010, president obama's approval rating was below 70%. in 2006 bush was 45 or below in 20 states, republicans lost 19 of the 20. can you invite him or not invite him, but you're on the ballot, when your party holds the white house, that president is on the ballot with you. >> let's talk about north carolina, margaret. the most expensive race this year, it's a purple state. what do you see in this race? >> had this is absolutely within the statistical margin of error. all the polls are plus or minus two points in either direction. this was a state that went for mitt romney and barack obama. it's unclear whether tom till sis going to pull it out and kay hagan is going to need african-american turnout in

order to get the numbers. >> they've made enormous inroads, the demographics are changing dramatically. but the $111 billion spent in the state is crazy town and obviously the vast majority is not from the candidates, it's from the outside groups so there's, this is a real race to watch. democrats need to hold onto it if they're going to stay anything within competitive. >> ann a significant interesting latino vote in north carolina. it's a demographic that doesn't get talked about all the rules are getting rewritten. >> margaret's point is important. north carolina is ground zero for a larger dynamic. the modern democratic coalition, the presidential coalition, five of the last six presidential elections is dependant on young people and minorities who tend to vote less in mid terms than presidential years, a structural problem. north carolina probably the best test of all the money they're spending can change that historic dynamic tonight.

>> great stuff, guys, thanks so much and sticking around with us all morning. ron, errol, margaret, john. we cannot hype it. it's just the reality. votes today will quite possibly make history, shifting power in congress to one party. but the real news, is how close so many of these races are as you were just hearing. at least a dozen still too close to call and also going on vote remembers in control of major issues like abortion, minimum wage, marijuana legalization and in some big states, will you the people take the reins of power from politicians and make law yourselves? we have the latest on the likely outcomes, stay with us. [ female announcer ] you get sick, you can't breathe through your nose...

suddenly you're a mouthbreather. well, put on a breathe right strip

and instantly open your nose up to 38% more than cold medicines alone. so you can breathe and sleep. shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right.

glad to have you back with us on "new day." big day ahead. we've learned two younger siblings of the chicago man accused of trying to join isis were arrested with him last month. prosecutors say the 16-year-old and 17-year-old were arrested were mohammed hamza khan were arrested at o'hare airport. attorneys say they expressed a

passion for committing violence. a judge ordered khan hto be hel on terrorist charges. you can see a man dragging a woman and forcing her into the vehicle. the woman manages to smash windows but she could not escape. police released the footage in hopes of finding the suspect who remains at large along with his victim. police are offering a $10,000 reward so take a good look at that. a former cdc security guard is speaking out. saying he was unfairly fired after the incident while he was escorting the president. kenneth tate tells cnn he did not take photos of the president in an elevator as reported. but after the security detail was done. tate doesn't dispute he was in the elevator with the cdc-issued gun. a major violation of secret service protocol. one of the incidents led to the resignation of secret service

chief julia pearson. one of npr's "car talk" guys has died. tom maglioze died monday of complications of alzheimer's, he was 71 years old. "click and clack, the tappit brothers" they stopped doing broadcasts in 2012, but their archive material remained a hit. a loss for npr listeners across the nation. can we talk k&n money? christine romans is here. a the love states looking at this issue. >> a major effort by the president of united states, not been able to get momentum for it in washington. the states are doing it themselves. and we're seeing more states,

four states will be on the ballot here, you can see alaska, take a look at south dakota. look at illinois. it's in yellow, an advisory measure there and they're saying they want it to be above $10 an hour. most of the states would raise it in a couple of steps, look, those red states? the polls look like it's going to pass in the red states, there's been a shift, michaela. a shift in public perception, 71% of americans say they support a higher minimum wage. >> we wouldn't have seen this five years ago. >> i've seen a change in trend and have been hearing more ceos and business leaders say they believe we should raise the minimum wage. income inequality is a problem, it seems to be entrenched. i will say there are small business owners -- >> they probably are saying -- >> they don't like it. >> they have to provide coverage for obama care for the first time ever. they're saying this is not a good time for them. san francisco taking a lead. they want to raise it to $15 by 2018 this would be 142,000

workers who get a raise today if san francisco voters -- that's a quarter of the workers in san francisco. get a raise. if san francisco raises the minimum wage today. >> cities, on the ballot in some california cities and for four or five states today. >> a lot more states wanted it on. couldn't get it on. just because you see it there, that was already a battle that had to be won. >> yeah, let me show you the states, already higher than $7.25, it's spreading, right? they can't do it in washington, the states are taking into their own hands. the cities are, too. seattle has some rules, other rules say for city workers they have to be paid more in l.a. restaurant or hotel workers have to be paid more. sector by sector, city by city, state by state. raising the minimum wage. >> one of the initiatives that could get people to the polling stations because they care about it pretty strongly. christine romans we appreciate it. well the polls claim that republicans are poised to take control of the senate. but of course it's the vote who are will have the final say. can democrats hold on to their

senate majority? both parties weigh in as the polls begin to open. and we've seen the enemy and it is the campaign commercial. we've reached a new low in negative ads, you need to see them. if only to see what some candidates now think is okay. e financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise

(vo)solver of the slice.pro. teacher of the un-teachable. you lower handicaps... and raise hopes. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (pro) nice drive. (vo) well played, business pro. well played. go national. go like a pro. nineteen years ago, we thought, "wow, how is there no way to tell the good from the bad?" so we gave people the power of the review. and now angie's list is revolutionizing local service again. you can easily buy and schedule services from top-rated providers. conveniently stay up to date on progress. and effortlessly turn your photos into finished projects with our snapfix app. visit angieslist.com today. ♪

your customers, our financing. your aspirations, our analytics. your goals, our technology. introducing synchrony financial, bringing new meaning to the word partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. enagage with us.

and our big idaho potato truck is still missing. so my buddy here is going to help me find it. here we go. woo who, woah, woah, woah. it's out there somewhere spreading the word about americas favorite potatoes: heart healthy idaho potatoes and the american heart association's go red for women campaign. if you see it i hope you'll let us know. always look for the grown in idaho seal. (coffee being poured into a cup.) ♪ save your coffee from the artificial stuff. switch to truvia. great tasting, zero-calorie sweetness from the stevia leaf. what if we finally had that would be amazing. hey, what if we took down this wall? what if this was my art studio? what if we were pre-approved? shut up! from finding to financing, how'd you do that? zillow.

welcome back to our special coverage of election day. several key senate races are too close to call. the ballots are out there for you. the polls are opening and it's going to come down to you. whether you got after it with an early pallet or going to maybe get out of the house a little early or after work to hit the polls. the stakes only control of congress. if you're on the fence about which party is right for you. we've got representatives from both of them here to tell you why they are the best or really why the other side stinks. which seems to be a much more common strategy these days. we have republican sean spicer here and democrat mo alifi, great to have both of you there. mo, will et me start with you, why are you confident that the

democrats can stave off the movement that mitch mcconnell says is in the air. especially given the fact you haven't had a whole lot of a national campaign that's anything but running from the president? >> well we've actually, i think, we've got a lot of great senators and a lot of great candidates. in both senate and governors races around the country who are running fantastic local campaigns, that's why see see so many of these races coming down to the wire affiliate couple of months ago, people thought the republicans were going to run away from this thing in all the states. but we're finding them too close to call, so it will come down to the voters at the very end. we've got a good ground game. we've gone after the early vote pretty aggressively. and i think we'll see surprises in the san jose and governors races where a lot of republican governors are poised to fall tonight. maybe even more republican governors than democratic senators. >> governors won't be the the story line.

the story line will be the senate. i saw you smiling, sean, i don't think it mean as regular smile. to mo's point, these states, a lot of them are purple states, a lot of them are states that mitt romney won. it wasn't wild to think that republicans would win run away with it, given the mood of the country. how do you see the races lining up as so close? >> well look chris, if you keep this in perspective a, a year ago, charlie cook, stu rothenberg, other national handicappers said we have a 15-20% chance of taking back the senate. quiet is are we going to take it back by enough. the idea that colorado, iowa were on the map was crazy a few months ago. theyed that new hampshire is coming down to the wire was crazy. the idea that virginia has closed as tight as it is is crazy. what we're seeing around the country from one coast 0 another is a lot of republican momentum, a lot of desire for change in washington. so whether you're talking about iowa, colorado or alaska, i think we're going to have a good night. if all the people who want the

change they talk about in washington, who want to see things get done and if he cuss on the economy, i think we're going to have a good night tonight. >> let's look into the future a little bit here. let's assume that turn-out is a little flagging today. which will probably motivate the change that you're looking to see. we get into the be careful what you wish for category. you got ted cruz out there who won't say he'll back mitch mcconnell as the leader. what happens, what gives you the sense just because you'll have the seats, you'll have control of your own party? >> well i think one thing that s unified in our party is getting a few things done. focusing on the question, reigning in spending, getting some regulatory reform done. frankly i'll be honest with you, some of the enter-party discussions that occur, took place when barack obama beat hillary clinton. sat down, said hey for the good of the party. let's come together. hillary clinton became his secretary of state. we know the story there parties generally kind of have these discussions going into an election. they get together after the end. especially after what we believe

will be a good night tonight. they'll find a direction and move forward. and then we'll move forward and make progress. so i really don't worry about that. my focus is on tonight and getting everyone out to vote. >> mo, what do you see? >> the last time the republican party was unified is when it shut the government down over an ideological vendetta against this president. think we're going to hold on to the senate tonight. think that moving forward, democrats have a middle-class focused agenda that would invest in infrastructure, education, invest in creating jobs, raising the minimum wage, equal pay for women. these are the types of things we're focused on. republicans are focused on another benghazi hearing and impeaching the president. if they take control of the senate, they might. i don't think they will. but if they do, i think that's what is at stake. think they've already as you mentioned, chris, ted cruz has said, mitch mcconnell said they

may take us back to the kind of governmental gridlock that shut the government down. >> you've got people in your own party running away from your own president. it's going to come down to the people and who comes out to the polls, we'll see who has got the better ground game. sean spicer, mo eliathee, good luck to both of you. we'll start you off looking at the polls, following it in an all-day affair. we're going to have to watch every second. and election night in america will start at 5:00 p.m. eastern. when you start to get the second flush at the polls. we'll start there and cnn will stay on it until the last vote is counted. which may very well, alisyn, bring them right back to us tomorrow. i'll have to change my tie. there's a chance. >> and we do start an hour early tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. eastern, chris. so i will be looking forward to that outfit change of yours. ready, set, vote.

the crucial mid-term elections today. after a long campaign and bucket loads of money. much of it spent on down and dirty attack ads. will they be worth it in the end? how have voters responded to the negativity? our panel breaks it down. we'll show you some of the most choice negative ads coming up. ♪ the mercedes-benz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on. [ho, ho, ho, ho] no matter which list you're on. lease the 2014 cla250 for $329 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.

big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

i won this 55 inch tv for less than $30 on dealdash.com. visit

dealdash.com for great deals. and start bidding today! welcome back to "new day." candidates across the country say victory in today's mid terms is all about getting out the vote and how better to do that than nasty mud-slinging insulting special attack on television. the web, radio and print for weeks and months before the election billions have been spent on negative ads. >> look, it's not something new. but it does seem to be a new low. let's bring in our political panel to break down some of the sludges most negative ads of 2014. good to have all of you here. with us, ron brownstein, errol is here, margaret here and john here. a little bit of the extended family. let's take a look at these examples here. of what we have first of the what's the first one? >> the texas lieutenant governor has done an ad basically

accusing his opponent of well suggesting that perhaps isis might be able to cross the border and kill americans, let's watch this. >> yeah. >> while isis terrorists threat ton cross our border and kill americans, my opponent falsely a tacks to hide her record on illegal immigration. >> latisha opposed putting national guards on the border. >> what's the problem? >> this is the stupid it hurts, plus fear-mongering and he follows it up my opponent falsely accused me. isis has never gone across the southern border. totally low, totally false, totally crazy. >> did it help him? >> he's going to win anyway. he's in a powerful position in texas. dan patrick is leading the republican party of texas away from the moderation on immigration. this ad implied it was a two-day

drive from syria to the rio grande. so it was -- >> facts aside, margaret, if it helps, isn't a campaign going to do it? >> yes. but here's the real insight on political ads this season. because there's been so much money put into political ads, most candidates don't need to go negative it makes them look bad. outside groups do it for them. so even though nobody is directly coordinating, if i'm a candidate and i'm running and i see money has been put down in a race by a group i know is supporting me, i don't have to go negative on anyone. >> if people don't attach this outside group to the candidate, we have a much bigger problem than these ads. if you don't see that's how the system has changed, it's not margaret hoover. em people who haute but margaret hoover. >> except on the bottom of it it says this ad was paid for by the republican national committee or by such and such pac. and can you look that up. >> the reality is when people are as negative as they are now on what's coming out of

washington and politicians, negative messages are more persuasive than positive messages. people are more likely to believe something negative than positive. that's part of the reason why it tilt heavily in that direction. >> errol, this is wendy davis' ad she put out against her opponent. who is disabled in a wheelchair. watch this. >> a tree fell on greg abbott. he sued and got millions. since then, he's spent his career working against other victims. abbott argued a woman whose leg was amputated was not disabled because she had an artificial limb. >> i mean this is like one of those where you expect it to like, as you come out of it you're not on "new day," you're on some political satire show, where it was a spoof ad. who thought this was a good idea, errol? >> this works. this pushes buttons that people like to hear. >> people in wheelchairs are

bad? he deserves to be in it? >> you've got a slick trial lawyer abuse of the system, once you attach it to a candidate. it's hard to shake it off. >> the guy nova scotia a wheelchair. >> wasn't he trying to point out the hypocrisy. >> that's an interesting debate. when you're going after a guy in a wheelchair it looks like you're sort of poking at him and trying to highlight his disability as a political negative? that's low and it turns off folks. >> not every hail mary pass is completed. this is wendy davis was kind of you know facing a steady deficit. kind of threw this very catching, but risky ad out there and it simply was too much. >> this is not you and me sitting in a room, we're exhausted, desperate and we figured out this is where what we have to. people are paid a ton of money to present you with ideas of what will work and this is what they arrived at. >> people walk into rooms all the time and say the race is

solid. not moving, we're not going to win, we've got to shake it up. sometimes the shaking doesn't end with you on the top of the heap. >> and wendy comes in on such a high-minded situation. >> he she was behind by nine points it shows the tone of the race, she paid for that one herself. >> that's one that is considered to have back-fired. one that has caught fire is the jodie earnharrnst in iowa ad. many would have said this was a risk. talking about well, hog castration. let's watch. >> i'm joanie ernst. i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm. so when i get to washington, i'll know how to cut pork. washington is full of big spenders, let's make 'em squeal. >> that's another one that could have been on "saturday night live." >> but it actually resonates in a rural state and it happens to

be true and cutting pork is what a lot of people want to vote for. >> she's running in a crowded republican primary. not a leading candidate and all of a sudden that ad goes viral outside of iowa because of the pig castration it has humor which is the most effective way to run an ad. because people aren't going to take offense you see the wink and the nod, and there's a fiscal conservative point with pork. great ad. it might make her one of the most influential senators in the country. >> most ads are quite boring, most people go in poll-test the districts, figure out what messages work and cut a boring ad to those messages. but if you can get an ad to go viral. can you get 20 times your money's worth. >> that ad didn't take itself seriously. >> this is a candidate who wants to not only roll back the federal, the the obama rules on climate. but wants to eliminate the federal epa, eliminate the federal minimum wage, she's been able to make the race about

herself and compelling personal story. rather than issues that are edgy for a swing state. i would like to know what the emotional undertone of a candidate there deuce eintroduc who has a double-digit lead among men and is not winning with women. >> panel, stick around, we appreciate your insight. one story we're going to have to follow all day long. there's news to give thu morning, so let's get to it. election day and here we go. >> for republicans, it's all about president obama. >>. it's policies on the ballot. >> it will be a bad night for democrats. >> regardless who's in control. think it will be democrats, we'll see. >> it's it has been a bloodbath. more than 300 members of a sunni tribe slaughtered in recent

days. >> this is a brutal group with a barbaric sense of reality. >> he says he was behind the navy s.e.a.l. who took the first shot at osama bin laden. >>dy disclose anything that would have put the guys in harm's way? that's absolutely not what i intended to do. >> people want to know what we do and how we do it. so does our enemy. >> good election day, everyone. welcome back to "new day," i'm alisyn camerota alongside chris cuomo. vote something under way in 22 states in critical mid-term elections. the polls get crowded after work. just a reminder. >> a lot of people did early balloting, we'll have do see how it goes this year. republicans -- one thing is for sure, they feel good this morning. they have strong indications that they could take control of the senate. they're saying the magic number is six. more interesting perhaps is why democrats don't feel that way. they're saying turn-out is the big question of the day. early balloting, especially seems unusually robust. so with more than a third of the

seats in the chamber at stake, as many of the top national players are keeping an eye on 2016, there's a lot for to us watch. >> and cnn has the vote covered. where the big races are across the country from new hampshire to alaska. so let's bring in dana bash, cnn's chief congressional correspondent and jim acosta, in washington. along with cnn correspondent ana cabrera in colorado and gary tuchman in arkansas. welcome to all of you. what an exciting morning. dana, i want to start with you. of course it's all about voters turn-out. and democrats claim to have an advantage dmt ground game. what are your sources telling you? >> they have tremendous get out the vote operations in really all of these key states. but here's the problem. democratic sources admit this, it's one thing to go knock knock knock, please, democratic voter, don't forget to go out and vote

today. it's a lot harder to say knock knock knock, please would you please support this candidate. it's a whole lot harder to persuade even a registered democrat or a likely democratic voter to get out and vote for the democratic candidate. and that i'm told by democratic sources is, that's what they're encountering in a lot of the swing states, not just make sure, don't forget to vote. but really try to get them to support the democrat. and it's not that easy, in a climate like this. >> gary, we find you in arkansas. this morning, we've been talking already on the show about what an interesting race that's been. what are you feeling and seeing this morning, there? >> well alisyn, mark pryor is the incumbent democrat and mark pryor has been aggressively seeking and receiving the support of a certain president, but that president is not barack obama. that president is bill clinton. bill clinton has been here, he's an arkansas native. three times campaigning the last month, including this sunday. and while he's been campaigning,

pryor has very publicly continued to distance himself from barack obama. meanwhile, his republican challenger, tom cotton has been only too happy to put them together. to put their names together, pryor and obama. it's clear in this race, barack obama and bill clinton are big parts of the campaign. >> that is interesting. ana, you are in colorado. that race has been neck and neck, the whole way through. what issues are voters focused on there? >> well i think voters are definitely focused on the economy. and colorado has one of the best economies in the country right now. with just a 4.7% unemployment rate. yet, it's interesting, because neither the candidates are talking so much about the economy. i know mark udall. the incumbent democrat who is facing an uphill being incumbent democrat under the unpopular president this cycle has put all of his eggs in one basket. and really going after those very active and engaged female voters here in colorado. so much so, that a lot of his messaging has been focusing on

women's reproductive rights and hounding his opponent on that issue. to a fault some say. that he's simplifying women too much. and maybe it will instead of bringing women to his side, will insult them and push them away. we'll have to wait and see, since the early voting, with 1.4 million ballots already cast, the republicans do have more people turning in their ballots ahead of team. about 100,000 more republican ballots compared to democratic ballots at this point. >> we'll see what happens if the democrats can turn those numbers around. jim, let's turn to you, north carolina. senator kay hagan is doing something that many democrats have not wanted to do on the campaign trail, this election cycle and that is that she's getting a little help from president obama. i know you have a radio ad to play for us what does that say? >> that's right alisyn. the president staying very much behind closed doors today, no

public events on his schedule. he has been doing something behind the scenes as you mentioned, he cut a radio ad for embattled north carolina senator kay hagan. the ad is designed to go after and mobilize african-american voters. here's a portion of that ad. >> voting is easy. to stand with me, president obama, and take responsibility and in moving north carolina forward. by voting for kay hagan on november 4th. >> i'm kay hagan, candidate for u.s. senate and i proved this message. >> now with all of these incumbent senators running scared, running away from the president, why would kay hagan do something like this in the last hour? this race is so tight in north carolina, they need a key part of the democratic base, african-american voters to show up at the polls. those are the same voters that propelled president obama to victory in 2008 in that state. but get this -- kay hagan's opponent, the speaker of the house of north carolina, tom tillis tillis, he put out the ad on his

social media to get his voters excited. white house officials say the president is cutting other radio spots, but they're not saying where they are they're letting the campaign announce those, knowing fairly certainly that sometimes a presidential endorsement isn't always going to make the difference in all of these races. >> and dana, it's that just perfectly exemplifies whether or not president obama is advantageous for democrats this time around or disadvantage. it's funny to use him at the 11th hour, isn't it? >> it is. i was told early on by democratic sources that they were likely to do kind of pinprick, get out the vote operations with the president. but it was more likely to be robo calls into communities where he is still incredibly popular, african-american communities, other areas where there are, democrats who are upset about the fact that the president has from their perspective, not been treated fairly enough in washington. that he never had a chance.

but you know, what's also interesting, alisyn is when you look at a state like iowa, that's a perfect example of a state where the president, his political life was born there. he beat hillary clinton in the iowa caucuses in 2008, nobody really saw that coming. months before. he won there in 2008 and 2012 in the general elections. but now you have a purple state where he's, he was also nowhere to be found. i also just want to play something for you that is very telling about where things stand. this morning on election morning. it's the closing arguments from both iowa senate candidates. the democrat and the republican. and if you look at these ads, think we have them. they are almost identical in the way they look. check that out. it almost looks like they use the same crew. one waited for the other to go. they're down the same dirt iowa road. with corn in the back. in their casual clothes, why do i want to point this out? because after all of the sniping

about, about positions, about really important positions in differences on minimum wage, on maybe women's issues, this is what it all comes down to. voters out there want to see their candidates not part of washington, not just linked to president obama, but all of washington, they're disgusted with washington, that's why those closing ads are very telling about the voters sentiment across the country. >> i'm glad you showed that to us, dana, they're even wearing the same jeans shirt, i believe. they just borrowed it from each other basically. that's fascinating. and gary, part of the reason we're focused on arkansas is for some of the same reasons, we all identify with the state that bill and hillary came if but it's changed since then. what are you seeing this morning in terms of the demographics and the issues? >> well it's changed a lot, alisyn, republicans think this state is ripe for a senate win today. it's been a downer for democrats in arkansas for the past several years, a lot of reasons for that. what we're see something ever

since the clinton years, the percentage of votes for the democratic candidate in the presidential race has gone down each year. from '96 to 2000, in 2012, barack obama received 37% of the vote. which is one of the worst performances in the united states and his approval rating in arkansas is at 33%, much lower than the national average. so what we're seeing is a state where republicans think they need to pick up. they also want to pick up very much. and you have a situation here where tom cotton, the republican wins, it will be the first time, there are two sitting republican u.s. senators in the state since the '70s, i'm not talking about the 1970s, i'm talking about the 1870s, 140 years ago. >> a good fun fact. gary, jim, ana, dana, thanks for the information, we'll check back in with you in the morning. at 5:00 p.m. eastern, be sure to join us for election night in

america, we'll be with you until all of the big races are sorted out, even if that takes months. >> definitely a horse race, but the horse race matters. one big reason, control of the congress is going to be important. we still don't have either house voting or debating the ongoing war against isis. we have developments in that war overnight. icician is continuing a rampage across iraq, slaughtering tribes that oppose them. sunni tribes that have not been armed or supported by the iraqi government. 300 have been killed in recent days. new information in terms of what to do about it. u.s./coalition and iraqi forces are said to be planning a major military offensive to retake key areas in northern and western iraq. we have cnn's nick paton walsh live near syria's border with iraq. how bad is it getting on the ground? >> the real issue is how fast can the iraqi security forces actually get mobilized with u.s. help to undertake any offensive.

along gulf between moving against isis and organized this force, very ruthless to actually being on the ground, able to move through. now you were mentioning the increasing death toll from the massacres related to the al albu numi tribe, incidences of the members of the tribe being abducted and executed. six women and nine children may have been caught up in this. rare for isis to execute women and children. this tribe potentially willing to stand up to isis. but the keyish for them is weapons from the iraqi government. we come back to the old thing, the sunni/shia divide. the government in iraq, shia, the tribes they need to fight isis, sunni as well. very complicated. a great amount of distrust and nobody seeing enough of an effort at this stage, baghdad, to make a difference. >> not only a massive loss of life, but is iraq doing the right things for its own

counterinsurgency. we'll have to follow that one. back at home, there's controversy brewing over members of an elite military unit spilling some big secrets. one member of s.e.a.l. team 6 is already in hot water for writing a book and speaking about the mission that killed osama bin laden. now another is preparing for an interview where he is set to declare that he is the one who fired the fatal shot. their command certificate lashing out about s.e.a.l.s violating the strict code of an himty. cnn's barbara starr is live at the pentagon with more. >> good morning, alisyn. let's go back for a minute, remember the night, we know that s.e.a.l. team 6, a number of them were creeping up those stairs, in the dark, at bin laden's compound. at the top of the stairs was osama bin laden hidden in a room there. there were essentially three s.e.a.l.s, think of the first guy as the point man. he goes through the door, he pushes aside two women in the room. possibly fire as shot. does fire a shot. he believes that gets bin laden.

sikd second man through the door known as the shooter. this may be the man that is about to unveil his story. on television. with fox news. he's also believed to be the subject of a an "esquire" magazine article, where he talked extensively about the mission in his role that night. he thinks he fired two shots that killed bin laden. third up, matt bissonnette, known as mark owen, he wrote a being boo, he talked to "60 minutes," he think he fired shots. i've talked to people in the navy s.e.a.l. community. they're not at all convinced either of the two s.e.a.l.s speaking out. we've never heard from the first man through the door, neither of those two s.e.a.l.s they believe, are really telling the full story of what happened that night. don't believe either of them really fired the kill shot. but of course, they may never know, it was a dark night, it was confusing. but that's just the beginning. because the head navy s.e.a.l., rear admiral brian losey has fired off a scathing letter to his community.

i want to read you just a part of it where he reminds them all of their ethical obligation, admiral losey saying their ethics require, i do not advertise the nature of my work nor seek recognition for my actions. admiral losey telling the navy s.e.a.l.s to zip it and stop talking about all of this most of them, the majority of them do obey the rules. and just one more thing, admiral losey telling the navy s.e.a.l.s, if they disclose classified information, he will see to it that they face judicial consequences. alisyn in. >> interesting to hear all of this coming to light. barbara starr, thanks so much for the background. all right there's more news to talk about. >> breaking this morning, the mayor of giuala, mexico and his wife have been arrested in connection with the apparent abduction of dozens of missing students, they were arrested in mexico city. they are accused of

masterminding the kidnapping of 43 students who were reportedly taken by police officers, allegedly working for a criminal organization. those students remain missing. the latest numbers on ebola are in from the u.n. they are staggering. more than 13,500 cases reported. the death toll now approaching 5,000. those are global figure, we know the bulk of the victims are in west africa. the nations of liberia, guinea and sierra leone. vice president joe biden contradicting the white house, in an exclusive interview, he said he did not apologize to the nation of turkey after a speech where he suggested that turkey helped foster the growth of isis. biden does say he called president erdogan to clarify his comments. the u.s. has been pushing back and pushing on turkey to take a bigger role in the fight against isis. so -- that happened. trending now, the photo bomber

for president bill clinton. getting his mug in the frame for these this photo taken in a campaign rally in texarkana. the former president was stumping. and this photo was snapped, a little girl clearly not really thrilled about being at the rally, i'm sensing. former president bill clinton was and was more than happy to sort of pop his face in the picture. got to love the mid-terms for these kinds of moments. >> i love the juxtaposition and his enthusiasm. >> in a really phony business, that's one of the most genuine things we've seen in these campaigns. bill clinton loves to be out on the hustings and he's had enough opportunities. that guy has been everywhere. campaigning. >> it's true and 7-year-olds may not like it. >> not so much. >> it went from a picture that you just as likely to delete as soon as you get a space problem with the cloud. to now, it's a keeper. the big prize today of course is control of the senate, republicans are confident they

can make that happen. well, our panel looks at the key races, that could shift the balance of power in the senate. today the ads and the candidates go quiet hopefully, it is all about you. voter turnout. so who's coming out and who's sitting this election out? cnn's john king will examine that on "inside politics," don't forget to vote. look at these people, good citizens out there. the volunteers at the table, going through the rolls. going on right now all over the east coast. get out early from work and do what you got to do. hello... i'm an idaho potato farmer

and our big idaho potato truck is still missing. so my buddy here is going to help me find it. here we go. woo who, woah, woah, woah.

it's out there somewhere spreading the word about americas favorite potatoes: heart healthy idaho potatoes and the american heart association's go red for women campaign. if you see it i hope you'll let us know. always look for the grown in idaho seal. i got this. [thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving. i hope he saved enough. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. whether you're just starting your 401(k) or you are ready for retirement, we'll help you get there.

save your coffee from the artificial stuff. switch to truvia. great tasting, zero-calorie sweetness from the stevia leaf.

the gol needs just six seats do gain control of the senate. we'll take a closer look now at some of the tight races, we'll call them the big six. you got your old paper ready. arkansas, alaska, louisiana, montana, south dakota and west virginia. colorado and iowa into the mix. they're bubbling up a little bit. all the states that the gop is hoping to flip into their column or at least expect to let's bring in jon avlon, cnn political analyst, margaret

hoover, cnn political commentator and errol lewis and ron brownstein, editorial director for the "national journal," that was the hard part. let's look at the states and take one step back. people going to the polls, all the urgency and expectation. ron brownstein, the media often accused of hyping elections so people watch them. i don't remember this many horse races, even with the big shift in 2010. the unknowns, why? >> a lot of close races, because you have a public that is dissatisfied with what's happening in the country and not really enthusiastic about either political party. president obama has very low approval rating and the republican congress has a lower approval rating. two-thirds of the country say we're on the wrong track. not an overwhelming tilt one side or the other. a lot of close races leading republican. >> errol, all about turn-out, you know it well.

early voting seems unusually robust. does that mean i'm wrong in anticipating low turn-out. >> it means that the vote mated voters, they seem to be on the republican side in many of the states are getting out, they're locking up their vote. they're going to have a robust turn-out operation. but in the end, because the congress is so unpopular, because they've been so unproductive, 112th congress, 113th congress, people are looking for a change, are very disillusioned. another fact tore keep in mind. because of gerrymandering, because you have a lot of safe seats, many incumbent who is don't really have a race. >> he was doing the -- document with madison, do you think he knew that his name would get dragged around like this. >> so margaret, you know, does this come down simply for all the intrigue of why, these are states, most of the key states, the six states that romney won. these are purple. you should win them. >>? you're right, this is the good luck of the map.

and the democrats have the good luck of the map in two years. >> let's stick to now. i know heaven forbid we go to 2016. i'm sticking on the senate 2016. this could flip in two years. republicans need to all win these seats and it's, there are more problems with the republican party if we don't. but i think we're going to, so it's okay. >> where are the democrats' heads in terms of saying we don't think it's going to happen? >> a lot of democrats are in denial and it's political malpractice to say i think we're going to lose the senate tonight. >> because it's honest? >> not just because it's honest, but i think we get caught up in the polls and saying this is a done deal. and it does matter who turns out and yet early voting is going to be disproportionately older and writer. but do young voters turnout. states like colorado could provide the difference. ultimately the people are empowered and we spend so much time fixating on polls an acting like it's a done deal.

>> if republicans win the senate tonight. neither party will have held the senate for more than eight consecutive years since 1980. >> neither side has been able to sustain the kind of majorities we've seen in the past, enduring majorities, much less control of the white house, the house. >> a sign of the times that neither side can establish a lasting advantage and what you've got is an electorate that's moving back and forth between the parties, has not seen either of them produce outcomes in the last several decades that would cement lasting allegiance. >> because we've got market failure in our politics, the parties are more more polarized than ever before. more people are independent. and you've got the least productive, least popular congress in american history. it looks like in the cycle, republicans will get rewarded by taking over the senate. it most of the populist anger is against dysfunctioning washington? will this compound it further? do republicans want to show they can govern are they going to

revert to their grandstanding and alienating even more folks. >> i grew up in politics, watching the great errol lewis take us through these things. it comes down to this day and let me tell you, everybody no mat maher how big their mouth is in these campaigns they're nervous because they're waiting on you. there will be surprises, i guarantee it, it's always that way. take a breather, alisyn, over to you. which early signs can we watch for as voters begin to roll in? cnn's john king will tell us what to look for "inside politics." and, tragedy averted -- police in baltimore foil a possible school shooting. the surprise deeg tails of how they discovered what a teenager alengdly had planned, ahead. lly, but there are no branches? 24/7 it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.

so ally bank really has no hidden fethat's right. accounts? it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

busy day here at cnn. but we want to give you a look at the headlines at this hour. police in baltimore say a rash of car break-ins helped them foil a teen's plot to carry out a school shooting. detectives say they managed to link alexander nemfos to car crimes when they went to his house to interview him, he had a gun and explosive devices, he told police he brought a gun to school friday, but decided not to do anything. he's being evaluated. special prosecutors argue rick perry should not be given access to an indictment.

prosecutors are concerned it could lead to retaliation against witnesses based on remarks perry made following an august court appearance. the st. louis county police chief is denying an "associated press" report that his department requested air space restrictions to keep news helicopters away from ferguson. protests after the michael brown shooting. police chief john belmar says the faa imposed restrictions after a 911 call reported shots fired. the app said the ban was to keep the media away. very special day for the family of army private first class thomas mcgraw, his purple heart is being returned to the family today. decades after it went missing. it was found on a playground at an elementary school in the '90s and stashed in a drawer before anyone managed to track down the rightful owner. private mcgraw was killed in

vietnam in 1966. awarded the purple heart after his death. i understand that the family will be presented with the medal at a very special ceremony that will be held outside syracuse, it took them decades to track them down. i kind of actually got the goosebumps thinking about this, what a meaningful moment it will be for this family. >> helps remember the sacrifice. >> and it's interesting to note on today on election day. >> a lot at stake. for that, we get you "inside politics" on "new day," with mr. john king. your plate is full, my brother. >> good morning, everybody, chris, alisyn, michaela. it's election day, we've had polls for weeks and months. the politicians are giving speeches. with me on "inside politics" to share insight, julie pace of the "associated press" and john-thajohnathan martin of the "new york times." here's what to look for early

tonight. kentucky and georgia close at 7:00, will african-americans come out and vote for democratic accounts in those states who have pushed president obama away? or will their loyalty cause them to stay home? can mitch mcconnell win his race in kentucky and spend the rest of the night trying to figure out if he's the senate majority leader. key questions there. 7:30, north carolina closes. again the african-american turn-out question. one of the most hotly contested races in the country. if democrat kay hagan loses that race, it tells you republicans are on their way to a big night. 8:00 the polls close in new hampshire. jean shaheen, versus scott brown. inds pents outnumber democrats and republicans in new hampshire. 0 do independents in new hampshire give us a clue how the table will be set in if the democrats are to hold, if the democrats are to hold, these are

the key states, colorado, iowa and new hampshire. they have to hold the blues, they have to hold north carolina. the question is late momentum for the republicans, do we believe that the democrats as any promise, i'm going to come back to the table. can they outhustle. their whole thing has been early voting. the first clue i'm voting for is the early races, north carolina being one of them, see if the democrats can prove they got the republicans beat on the ground. >> and look, senator hagan has been one of the most durable candidates in a tough environment. she's hung in there. i think we'll know pretty early on the course of this night by watching that race more than any of them. but look, the challenge for democrats is even if they hold those races, we've got to be about perfect everywhere else. you talk to democrats privately. they still have some hope in iowa, colorado looking tougher. >> one of the key questions here, i know we're going to let people vote. one of the key questions is what happens after the election. in a sense you cover the white

house, what they're thinking, the words lame duck, especially if republicans have a big night will be used pretty quickly. mitch mcconnell is campaigning in kentucky. this could well be his final campaign. he wants six more years in the united states senate and wants the gavel. he wants to be the senate majority leader. listen to mitch mcconnell who sounds optimistic. >> we have a unique opportunity here, with this extraordinary partner of mine in the senate. to be in an enormously influential position. not only for our state, but for the country. we could have, for the second time in our history, the majority leader in the senate. setting the agenda for america and taking us in a new direction. >> what is the calculation at the white house? they continue to say they're confident democrats will hold the senate, they have to be planning for the possibility they won't. >> they are planning for that and they see some areas where they think they could compromise

with mitch mcconnell and the republicans if the gop takes over the senate. things like infrastructure spending, tax reform, trade deals where republicans and the white house have some commonality there. but all of those things are issues that republicans and the white house have talked about for several years and would require both sides to make compromises they haven't been willing to make. >> you often say you are who you are at this point in your life. the president and senator mcconnell. it's on both of them, don't have much of a relationship. are we interested to see if after the election they decide we have a responsibility to try to work that out. you mentioned the governors races, things you're watching. what are you going to look for when you see the results come in? >> there's so much focus for obvious reasons on the senate map and the governors races are crucial this year. i'm watching the florida governors race, the wisconsin governor race, and illinois and kansas for clues about the sort of mood of the states. and also, because of the reason -- the governors that win this year, have a shot at

getting re-elected, they could redraw the congressional maps, that's keat to future control of the u.s. house. >> if you look at what president obama has done on the campaign trail over the last couple of weeks, he's been focused on governor's races, he knows that governors can affect policies even more than the senate can. >> talk to folks there privately in the white house and they are passionate about the governors races because they know that the president's legacy is the affordable care act more than anything else and the governors will expand medicaid or not expand it. >> mary burke win as close race in wisconsin. we can show you the president's schedule today -- nothing, not so unusual. what is he supposed to do. stand at a subway stop somewhere and shake hands? he's not on the ballot. bill clinton might, i don't know where bill clinton is. but this is, this is the last referendum on this president, if you will. 2016. he'll still be in the white

house, but you'll have a different democratic nominee on the ballot. republicans complain about the president all the time. the obama years have been great for the republican party. when he came into office, 257 democrats in the house, they were the majority. 201 now. there were 27 democratic governors, there are 21 now. the democrats have lost, meaning republicans have gained 600 seats in state legislatures, those are the future governors, future attorneys general. and the senate is the big question, the change has been less dramatic after the 2008 election there were 57 democratic senators, now 53, 55 if you include the two incumbents. this is a referendum on him, that's what mid-term elections are. >> it is, you talk to folks in the white house, he they say you have to analyze the results from mid-terms different from presidential elections. there's truth to that but politics will be part of president barack obama's legacy and if he loses the senate today, both mid-term elections during his presidency will have

been huge losses for his party. that will not reflect well on his legacy. >> and the larger issue is there's been a great tradeoff in his party. they have become a presidential majority. close to that because of the coalition. he's put together, the down side of that is that all of these more conservative states, the democratic senators for years, are now moving to the right and that's probably not going to change any time soon. >> something else unlikely to change, the president's brand is damaged, the republican brand is equally if not more damaged. and we haven't sr. an evenly divided cup. we forget about that as we focus on the personalities. we have an evenly divided country. it looks like the republicans will get an edge. but we're still going to be in this polarized world. >> the long-term or medium-term is going to be a closely divided senate and a narrow gop advantage, and a decent gop advantage in the house. you've got a lot of conservative states that for years had democratic senators, they're moving more in line with the

gop. >> before we go, you want the last word? get it in quickly. julie has been missing the last couple of weeks, she decided to ut p her life ahead of "inside politics" and she went off, can you believe instead of coming in here at 7:00 in the morning to to talk with us, she went off and got married. can you believe that? we have a small gift for her. she has to drive, so don't drink this today. >> thanks, guys. >> it is nice as we get back to you in new york. i want to one more time say especially if you don't care and don't think it matters, get out and vote. show your politicians you hold them accountable. get out and vote. but i give julie props, she took a little time for her life in the middle of a campaign year. >> where are her priorities? >> in the right place. >> we need her to show up rfr day. okay. these segments don't write themselves, julie. now that you're married congratulations and get back to work. >> no excuses now.

stick with cnn for full coverage of the mid-term elections, election night in america begins at 5:00 p.m. we'll with you until all of the big races are sorted out. even if that takes days or weeks. so keep it tuned to cnn. and voters are not just choosing candidates today. issues like marijuana and the minimum wage are being voted on. we'll break down those hot-button ballot items. and the focus is on the senate, but dozens of governors races around the country are being decided, too, we'll tell you how those races will have national implications. [ female announcer ] you get sick, you can't breathe through your nose...

suddenly you're a mouthbreather. well, put on a breathe right strip and instantly open your nose

up to 38% more than cold medicines alone. so you can breathe and sleep. shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right.

good to have you back with us on "new day." candidates for house and senate are not the only things on the ballot. voters will decide a number of ballot measures, one, 146 to be precise. let's look a at a knew of the more controversial and important ones. a topic once on the fringe has moved into the mainstream in recent years. marijuana. florida going to decide if medical marijuana should be legal. two states, washington, oregon and washington, d.c. asks the question should anyone over the age of 21 be able to use marijuana. if they agree, they'll join 21

other states. another hot topic, minimum wage, five states are asking voters to decide whether or not to raise the minimum wage. now what's really significant here is the national minimum wage is $7.25. that hasn't been reset since 2009. illinois, we should point out to you, their ballot initiative is purely advisory and nonbinding. all right. next up. a very controversial debate going on about personhood. colorado and north dakota, they're asking voters if they would like to define unborn as people. proponents say the measures will protect pregnant women. opponents on the other side say if voters approve this, this could inadvertently make procedures like invitro fertilization imlegal. gun rights, a pair of initiatives in washington state, both sides of the gun issue squaring off. on the one side, initiative 591, would prohibit the government

from confiscating guns without due process and prevent background checks on fire purchases unless a national standard is required. now on the other side, the initiative 594 would require background checks for sales at gun shows and online. so the question we want to explore is -- why are these important? why are they so important? some of the ballot initiatives could be in place to drive turn-out of specific constituents. in fact, if i press this, no, yup there we go, press why, we should give an example, a chica"chicago tribune" poll tak august, a minimum wage increase in illinois could bring more democrats to the voting booth where they'll happen to vote for several democratic candidates and in today's race, millions of dollars has been poured into florida to oppose its medical marijuana initiative by conservative sheldon adelson. we'll be watching, make sure you

read these through carefully and do a gut-check on what you think. alisyn, chris? >> i got a secret for you, there's a lot of hype about the senate because of what it means today. and for 2016. but here's a secret -- when it comes to president, senators rarely win. governors do. and that's why we're watching the red/blue coup takes place in 36 states who are picking governors. what's trending there? who's going to rise up? we may get to know them too well in the years ahead. so stick with us next. and look at those good people, voting. are you there? e is as easy as it gets. wouldn't it be great if hiring plumbers, carpenters and even piano tuners were just as simple? thanks to angie's list, now it is. we've made hiring anyone from a handyman to a dog walker as simple as a few clicks. buy their services directly at angieslist.com no more calling around. no more hassles. start shopping from a list of top-rated providers today. angie's list is revolutionizing local service again.

visit angieslist.com today. [ high-pitched ] nailed it! [ normal voice ] you're right, that was really easy. i know, i told you so. on progressive.com, you can compare our progressive direct rates with our competitors' rates, so shopping is easy. you don't sound like flo. [high-pitched] yeah, i do. [ clears throat ] who you talking to? [ normal voice ] what? what's on your hand? noth-- my wedding ring. [chuckles] symbol of our love and understanding. comparing rates for you. now that's progressive. [ high-pitched ] nailed it!

welcome back to "new day." a little more information for you before you get out the door and vote. 10 minutes before 8:00. turn to the governor races. a lot of them going to be a little bit iffy right now. so we'll need our experts because not only do they influence what happens in their own state and a lot of issues that come in state that used to be national, but presidents wind up being governors a lot.

sure, we have a senator who's one now, but let's bring in the panel. >> we welcome back ron brownstein and john avlon. which governor's races are you keeping an eye on in particular? >> i think the most interesting are colorado, florida and wisconsin. wisconsin because scott walker could be a formidable presidential candidate in 2016. he has a tough re-election. colorado because it was a purple state where democrats felt the demographic when it was at their back. they pursued a black state social agenda and are struggling to hold on. and florida, all the times and whether the state joins the expansion of medicaid affecting hundreds of thousands of people in the state are significant. >> ron brownstein makes a good point. should i care about the governor's races? after all, we are worried about the senate and what's happening there in d.c. why do i care? >> for a couple of reasons.

first of all, it's laboratories of democracies. they have more impacts on their states and with the exception of president obama i mean, we have only had three presidents that weren't governors. so it's absolutely the breeding ground. i think one of the takeaways this presidency is looking at governors again. one other interesting thing. you know, ron pointed out exactly right, for example, scott walker wants to run for president. you know f he pulls this out, his third gubernatorial run in four years by the way that's significant. if he's defeated that's significant because -- >> do you see that happening? >> it's tight. it's tight in wisconsin. >> probably survives in this environment. >> but florida incredibly tight. bellwether state with presidential election implications. look at the governors in states like ohio. john kasich winning by 20. brian sandoval going to probably win by 20 in harry reid's home state. gary branstad in iowa, getting

beat by over 20 points in a state where joni ernst is trailing. >> and he's talking about the republican governors who are able to reach across the state and you have a ref ref dumb, and you have two governors who have tried to take on unions in the state. you have sam brown back who has cut taxes and the state has really suffered for it. a state that, you know, is three parties. moderate republicans and then democrats. brownback may lose his seat. >> he was trying to build a red state model that republicans could hold up in 2016 with the tax cuts and now in kansas -- >> it gets a lot more attention with a congress not doing very well. >> strong point. >> so you have to look at what the -- >> health care on the state level, minimum wage. you know? >> your point from before is

absolutely right. the reality is that washington is more likely than not to be gridlocked not only over the next two years but ten. as we head through this structural divide that neither side can achieve a dominant position. the inevitable position is more power, more decisions moving back to states. 38 states have unified control of the state legislature and the governor. you're seeing blue states move more in that direction and innovation coming out of the state. >> a lot of the republican governors who are cruising to election, they have embraced health care. it seems to aid the popularity when dealing with a republican state and a governor. >> that was rapt attention. >> much like you pay to me. thanks so much. we'll back in with you. the balance of power is on the

lined. we'll take you to some of the mostly hotly contested battleground states as voting gets underway. we'll speak with a major player. you have to see this. greg orman. remember, he's an independent, he wants to unseat the republican pat roberts. but here's the big question for him. which team is he on? who's he going to align with? he has to talk about it and he will on "new day" when he gets the camerota treatment. ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go,

the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities.

and our big idaho potato truck is still missing. so my buddy here is going to help me find it. here we go. woo who, woah, woah, woah. it's out there somewhere spreading the word about americas favorite potatoes: heart healthy idaho potatoes and the american heart association's go red for women campaign. if you see it i hope you'll let us know. always look for the grown in idaho seal. live in the same communities that we serve. people here know that our operations have an impact locally. we're using more natural gas vehicles than ever before. the trucks are reliable, that's good for business. but they also reduce emissions, and that's good for everyone. it makes me feel very good about the future of our company.

♪ there is no car because there was no accident. volvo's most advanced accident avoidance systems ever. the future of safety, from the company that has always brought you

the future of safety. give the gift of volvo this season and we'll give you your first month's payment on us. overnight, talk has become action. cast your vote, the fate of congress is in your hands today. republicans need six seats to control the senate. but polls are only guesses. and we will explain why there may whether no clear answer after today and for many days to come. and neck and neck, so many races this morning are dead heats. we're looking at the tightest race in states that matter most.

what the outcome means for tomorrow and for 2016. shocking murders an investment banker charged in the violent deaths of two young women in hong kong. new details ahead. your special edition of "new day" continues right now. >> this is "new day" with chris cuomo, kate baldwin and maki what pereira. >> it is election day. first item of the day, get out and votes. it matters, not only will it turn everything upside down because nobody knows what will happen, but it matters to you. too much undecided. please, do it early. get there after work. do what you have to do and good morning to you. thanks for being with us here on election day. >> i'm alisyn camerota along with chris cuomo. states are open in more states.

tight senate races across the country will help determine the power in the congress and the senate. polls are pointing to the gop advantage at this hour, but as chris said votes changes all that. democrats say not so fast. cnn has this critical midterm election covered like no other networks can. with reporters live on the ground in every state where there is a key race, chris. >> all right. thank you very much. let's bring in dana bash and we have people situated where we need to be, watching the super close races. correspondent martin savage, brian todd in new hampshire, somehow got himself into a polling facility. he's sneaky. crucial senate battles are taking place. dana, let's start be you. beautiful metaphor for you this morning. usually in front of the capitol. but the fact it's under

construction it shows what's going on metaphorically down in washington. a big role this morning as we're watching voting will be early voting. tell us about it. >> reporter: that's right. we talk a lot -- i talk a lot just based on anecdotal evidence about the dissatisfaction and the disillusionment of voters out there. but when you look at early voting it seems to contradict that because it's actually up. i just gave you two examples, north carolina, that is a state where this midterm election year voting is up tremendously. about 35% higher than the last midterm election year 2010. remember, that was a republican wave. a big election, midterm election year. what does that tell us? well, the democrats are doing better, but historically they have to do much better in early voting. they're just better at it. that is why i was told over the weekend that mitch mcconnell the republican leader got a call saying that he was likely to become the majority leader.

it was the modeling of the states like north carolina based only early voting that gave him the sense. colorado was another quick example. early voting is also much higher. the problem for democrats is that republicans have an 8% lead there. >> quick take. what's going on with early voting, why are we seeing more? technological advancement? people more comfortable with it, culture shift? >> i think it's probably all of the above, but you know it could be that voter disgust is driving people to the polls. >> angry early. >> exactly. disgust actually outweighs disillusionment. in a state like north carolina they have had fewer days. they changed the law there. they used to have 17 days for early voting now they have only ten and they still have more people. >> iowa is a big race. we have the outgoing senator tom harkin there. he said something, we have to play it for you so you can judge. it's not for me to decide, but for you.

listen to what he said and then we'll discuss. >> i don't care if she's as good looking as taylor swift. or as nice as mr. rodgers. but if she votes like michele bachmann she's wrong for the state. >> offense was taken, dana bash. why, and what will it mean? >> that's right. the republican candidate joni ernst said she was going to make like taylor swift and shake it off. but the reason -- first of all, i love that term, nontroversy. >> you can have it. >> it speaks to what i saw on the ground and what is a big issue nationwide which is the female voter. democrats really need female voters to get out, particularly younger voters. single voters. that is part of their core base. but in the state of iowa, they have a female democrat -- excuse me a female republican voting. there is a flip gender gap in that joannni ernst is doing bet

among men and the concern american democrats is that ernst is coming across as someone more palatable. that's why what he said matters. >> could be worse comparisons. i don't know. we'll back to you in a little bit. martin savage, what are you hearing about early turnout? >> well, the reason it's so close is you have two candidates both of whom who are well known. michelle nunn has raised a lot of money and she's done well in the polling. david perdue, familiar to many georgians because of their families, not because of the candidates themselves. so there's no incumbent here. both are running on what they said they did in the past. you have michelle nunn who works for a charitable organization and perdue is a self-made millionary.

you have the democrats who say, look, perdue is only looking out for the rich and those who will knock michelle nunn and say, well, she is just president obama, at least a surrogate in this state. it is very close, four percentage points divide them. the margin of error. early voting has been heavy here. almost a million georgians have cast their ballots in advance. you break down the demographics. that would seem to favor david perdue at this point. so the turnout is key. weather is beautiful. no excuse. there shouldn't be a large turnout, but lately here it's been quite light. >> thank you. to annika cabrera. how is it shaping up there? >> well, it's a close race. both sides saying they like their chances going into election night. it was interesting that dana mentioned voter turnout. and republicans are leading here in colorado where it's a mail-in

ballot system. we know that 1.4 million colorado ups had already cast their vote before yesterday, in fact. that was the number we got yesterday morning. waiting on the latest number for today. interesting in colorado, the fact is that democrats tend to vote later here. that's what we're hearing from election officials on the ground. so nothing is out of the ordinary in terms of what we are seeing at this hour. however, it's interesting to note in colorado one-third of the electorate is independent. so that's the group that could really make or break either candidate tonight. >> also, colorado falls into the little trifecta with alaska and louisiana, of states tough to poll. tough to know what's going on there exactly. we'll be back with you. then there's brian todd. somehow he's found his way inside a polling facility. i don't know how he did it, i don't know if he's legal but he's there and it's good for you watching. you're in new hampshire. important place, moan for being strong on the independent side, the race shapes up. they have somebody being painted as the status quo.

you have scott brown coming in. who's almost a carpet bagger depending on how you want to define it. how is it looking there and what's the robustness of voting like behind your shoulder? >> chris, to say this state is pumped up about the vote is an understatement. we have had a steady stream of voters coming in. this is the busiest voting station in new hampshire. ward 1. this is webster elementary school. people come and line up. they register here, sign in here. they get a poker chip and then they go over and get the paper ballot. >> old school. >> then into the booth and vote. totally old school. then into the -- then the votes go into the tabulator box at the other end of that row. so it is old school and there's no early voting here. this is all show up and vote the day of. that's why we're expecting a pretty good turnout. secretary of state's office told us they expect up to a 54% turnout rate here. also you talked about the independent voters in other states. there are more than 300,000

undeclared voters in new hampshire. jeanne shaheen and scott brown have been going after those voters with a fever. it is as tight of a race could be, race. depending on the poll you look at, shereaheen is ahead by two points and then another shows brown up. >> all comes down the urgency behind you. i think the voters look young. i'm looking at kids there, got to be 8 or 9 years old. you may have an investigation on your hands. i'm giving you a tip, reporter to reporter. >> we might. there's a young guy here with his mom. showing up. it's a great family event here in new hampshire. >> make sure they go into the same booth, not different booths. >> i'll be all over it. >> we'll check back in with all of you. it will be very, very tight here. get out and do your duty today. >> and of course we'll get back the our election day coverage in a moment. but let's give you some of the headlines now. a gruesome double murder has

hong kong residents on edge this morning. over the weekend a british investment banker called police and asked him to come to his luxury highrise apartment. what they have found inside has neighbors terrified. we have the latest developments from hong kong. >> reporter: as hong kong continues to reel over the deaths of two indonesian women, allegedly at the hands of an investment banker, the father of one of the victims has spoke on it. his 25-year-old daughter was discovered stuffed in a suitcase. her body decomposing on the balcony of the apartment. he has spoken to the media saying i want the murderer of my child to be sentenced to death. hong kong however does not impose the death penalty. he also pleaded for the governments of indonesia and hong kong to return his daughter's body as soon as saying i want her to be buried in indonesia.

the consulate is making plans for having the bodies returned. and 29-year-old woman was found on the floor with her throat slashed. the officers described it as gruesome. the banker did not enter a plea but will appear in court next week. until recently he worked at bank of america merrill lynch. when we spoke to his former colleagues they described him as normal, smart and good at his job. they are shocked he has been committed of these violent murders. iraqi forces are said to be training thousands of soldiers for a major counteroffensive against isis in the coming weeks and months. the main goals are retaking mosul and retaking the al an bar

providence. two more nuclear commanders fired by the air force with a third facing disciplinary action. this is the latest evidence of lapses in evidence. the latest one to be relieved is carl jones. they said he was dismissed because of a loss of trust and confidence. only 200 former relatives and players have opted out of the nfl concussion settlement. that's less than 1% of the thousands who are covered. those who opted out are free to pursue lawsuits separately. the average award for those players suffering from alzheimer's and lou gehrig's disease is expected to be about $195,000. election day, here we are. >> we're right here. let's talk about the neck and neck senate race in kansas.

so many people are watching that. polls show that pat roberts is virtually tied with independent orman. if he wins, which party will he caucus with? siding with the democrats can keep them in the majority. let's ask him these questions. mr. orman, good morning. >> good morning. good to be with you. >> how are you feeling this morning? >> you know, we feel great. we have -- i think over the last five months we have run good campaign. we have been able to talk to voters from around the state. and we feel confident. er voters are at tranted to what we triering to -- attracted to what we're trying to accomplish. we're not going to solve things in washington by sending the same people back there. >> democrats and republicans are anxious to learn which party you would side with, caucus with, if

you were to win. can you give them an answer this morning? >> well, you know, i think i have been clear about that from the beginning which is i'm not going there to represent the democratic party or represent the republican party. i'm going there to represent kansans. my goal is really to get washington back in the business of solving problems for the people of kansas. so, you know, we're going to end up working with senators from across both sides of the aisle and really work with anyone who wants to solve problems. that's in fact what it's all about. >> obviously, your position has resonated with the constituents there because your poll numbers are high. it is refreshing to hear a candidate say they're going to put aside partisan politics and just sort of go with common sense. a lot of people respond to that but some of your critics say it's just the worst kind of equivocation and it's political waffling. not to be able to commit on election day. what do you say to that criticism? >> well, you know, i'm more

concerned about what the voters in kansas think and they have been clear from the beginning. they think washington's broken. they think both sides have gotten far too extreme and have drawn childish lines in the sand. and ultimate i will they want -- ultimately they want people in washington to solve problems and not play partisan games. so for the voters in kansas, i think our campaign makes a lot of sense. i think they want someone to go to washington and genuinely be concerned about solving problems and not concerned about playing political games. >> do you worry that voters will feel betrayed if say democrats come out and vote for you and then you end up getting to washington and siding with republicans? >> i think we have gotten a broad base of support from republicans, democrats, independents alike. and the folks who are going to vote for me today realize i'm going there to solve problems and i'm going to use my best judgment on the best way to do

that. every voter has said, we love your independence, we want you to maintain it. >> let's talk about the issues. which issue do you believe you most differ from your opponent on? >> well, you know, there's a whole range of issues. my opponent has been in washington for 47 years and during that period of time, the dysfunction has only gotten worse. and, you know, if you look at his record, he doesn't come back to kansas. when he's in washington, he doesn't attend committee meetings and when he's there, he tends to vote against the interests of kansans. the u.n. treaty on disabilities which was something that was championed by bob dole is something that senator roberts opposed that i would have supported. the farm bill which is so critical to our farmers and particularly in western kansas but all over this state that contain the crop insurance provisions in it. senator dole voted against it, i would have voted for it.

senator dole didn't -- i'm sorry, senator roberts voted against it, i would have voted for it. senator roberts didn't have the ability to show up and vote on the v.a. reform bill. we have so many veterans in kansas who are -- who rely on the v.a. for their care and senator roberts just didn't have the courage to go back to washington and vote on it. so i think there are a lot of areas where he -- senator roberts and i differ. >> we should mention to our viewers we did invite senator roberts on to "new day" this morning but we never heard back from his campaign. greg orman, thank you for taking the time for us this morning. and best of luck and thanks a lot. we'll see what happens tomorrow. >> my pleasure. happy to be here. >> it will be interesting if he is the man picked. i think he's greatly underestimating the importance of his decision. because if there is actually a

tie, he can't bounce back and forth. there's pressure on him to create some kind of order down there. so i think it's a little -- it sounds a little bit better than the reality is. i'll work with everybody. >> it sounds refreshing, by our political panel says the senate rules don't allow for you to float back and forth. but at the moment it's working for him. >> he can figure out what to do after the race. we have been telling you it's all about you, because it is. you have to vote. i will say that on a day like today, the weather can be as big a player in an election as anything. because folks have to decide whether or not they want to or can get out to the polls. so let's bring in our meteorologist. what do you see out there? >> i think the temperatures are mild today. we started off with frost and freeze warnings in the south, just yesterday. those temperatures are rebounding. the middle of the country looks good. i think the biggest thing we're contending with on the election day forecast is the all weather

happening in the middle of the country. we're looking for showers in the ohio valley and back into texas. and another system is bringing in some showers. the heaviest amounts of rainfall is in the south, because we have the hurricane that's streaming into the south. they'll see some strong rain totals, anywhere from two to four inches. texas and oklahoma and places like arkansas. by tomorrow you will see this moisture streaming farther to the north. heavier rain bands extending farther as this slow-moving system still hangs out. keep in mind by the time we get to thursday, the same frontal service will bring showers into the northeast. that's the bull's-eye by thursday. warm temperatures but showers out there. >> thank you for that. >> perfect day for voting. >> it is. yes. no excuses. expect some election day nail biters as republicans try to take over the senate. we'll run down the biggest and most dramatic heated races for you. and did you know more states

are voting today for a ballot initiative than really we have seen before, especially when it comes to legalizing pot. in some states. even if it is legalized there's still a hurdle. we'll break down the latest tug of war over marijuana for you. ♪ there's confidence... then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts means your peace of mind. it's no wonder last year we sold over three million tires. and during the big tire event, get up to $140 in mail-in rebates on four select tires. ♪

creeping up on you... fight back with relief so smooth... ...it's fast. tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue ...and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. ♪ tum, tum tum tum... smoothies! only from tums.

we'll even buy you out of your contract.alaxy note 4 for zero down. so you can get the samsung galaxy note 4 for zero down today. introducing synchrony financial bringing new meaning to the word partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. engage with us.

it happens to be right. that's why we have chief national correspondent john king joining us from washington with the skinny. what do you see down there, my friend? >> well, i see as you noted ten, eight, nine, ten, closely contested races.

forget the polls, forget the speeches, today is the day for you to vote and us to count. let's look at the control of the u.s. senate. i have assigned montana, south dakota and west virginia to the republicans. even democrats think that's -- those will be republican pickups. that would leave you at 45-45. that tells you everything you need to know. control of the united states senate is very tight. hangs in the balance. there are ten races left on the map when you look at this like this. republicans have an advantage in seven or eight of them, so republicans have the advantage. but single digit leads doesn't mean anything. in kentucky and georgia, the polls close at 7:00. what's the turnout and what's the percentage of the african-americans in this state? and they tend if they break big that way they'll break that way across the country. 7:30, north carolina, so we'll have some early clues, chris. but if this is a chess game if there's a wave we'll know. then you'll have new hampshire and north carolina go to the

republicans and then i have a sense. but if it's blue, red, blue, red, we'll be counting for a couple of days in alaska. buckle up. >> if we were to type if in all caps, the democrats were able to keep power how would that happen? >> it's a tough one. again, so the first -- the easiest way and i put that easiest in quotes because it's easy for the democrats is to hold the blues. the president carried new hampshire and iowa twice and if democrats can hold those and they're in play republicans have the edge in a couple of those, but that would get them to 49. even getting that one would be hard. alaska, kansas, arkansas, louisiana, georgia and kentucky would be hard. remember, democrats only need 50, because they have the vice president who can make a break and republicans need 51. the map favors republicans but if democrats hold the blues they have a shot at it. more likely is they split them. then you get into the area where if the democrats need to win one

of these down here, that's a much steeper obstacle. >> seeing those tied numbers makes kansas lose all the larger. orman said i'll work with both sides if i win, no big deal. that doesn't make sense in terms of the rules of the senate or in the realities of the political climate. how big could kansas be and what do you think happens if he wins? >> you can work with both sides in the debates but the rules require you to pick a side when it comes to organizing the senate. who gets control of the senate. if orman wins this race, it doesn't change the math because we didn't know his answer. imagine a scenario you're at 50/50. and he gets to decide. what may not have to -- he may not have to make this decision, if this race goes to january 6th, he'll have a lot of time to think. which means he has a lot of time to hide from the phone calls trying to lobby him to pick the

sides with. then he can go back and forth. he can be a bridge between the democrats and the republicans but it's con sievable whether it's democrats or republicans who control the senate. we have a lot of volatility and unpredictability. i say it's unlikely but don't rule it out. >> okay, john king, we must have the voting commence and if robust. a lot of ballot measures of it there. we'll be watching. please keep us informed. >> we'll be here. >> thanks, john. we'll look at the closest senate races. the surprises and upsets. that could turn the control of the senate upside down. our political panel is getting seated.

really... it's not worth it. no worries. i got this. ♪ a 2.7 gigahertz turbo processor. kevlar fiber durability. turbo charge for up to 8 hours of battery in just 15 minutes. introducing droid turbo by motorola.

you can't breathe through your nose, suddenly, you're a mouth breather. a mouth breather! well, put on a breathe right strip and shut your mouth. cold medicines open your nose over time, but add a breathe right strip and pow, it opens your nose up to 38% more. so you can breathe and do the one thing you want to do, sleep. add breathe right to your cold medicine shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right. and look for the calming scent of new breathe right lavender, in the sleep aisle.

welcome back to "new day."

we call it election day but really it's voting day. you have to vote. this is your day. this is your chance to say you matter more than all these politici politicians. you have to because the polls are saying that the gop takes control of the senate. but that is only as good as your votes are. surprises are often the norm when it comes to election day. another reason to vote. a few months ago, everybody knows this, you do too. eric cantor, he was the majority leader and he lost his primary. he lost badly. what's the lesson? you never know and that's why they have it today. so what other upsets could we see? >> let's bring back our great panel. john avlon, cnn political analyst margaret hoover and brownstein -- >> very sliced titles. >> impressive. this hour of cnn -- greg anthony. greg, great to have you join us via satellite. let's talk about what surprises have happened, greg, i'll start

with you. what have been the biggest surprises of this race thus far? >> well, i think the fact that jeanne shaheen is in such a tight battle with scott brown in new hampshire. this is a young lady a former governor and brown is considered to be a carpet bagger and yet he's in a position to potentially usurp that seat. i think that -- that's pretty welling because -- pretty telling because if you look at all the rhetoric, i'm interested to hear from the rest of the panel. so much talk about the unpopularity of the president and i -- and also the unpopularity of the congress. and the senate has been controlled by democrats since 2007. so i think the public is looking at it. we haven't heard as much debate until this election. >> so you're down there in florida, okay, we're not playing it out for the senate there, but more and more the states are becoming relevant because of how they're taking over big issues,

how they implicate the aca. how they deal with minimum wage. you have a hot governor's race down there. is there a feeling in florida that this matters more than usual? >> it's -- it always matters in florida, particularly since 2001 when you had the gore/bush election. it was hotly contested for our governor the last election and i think charlie crist is trying to make it a more contested one this time around. the fact that you have some topics like marijuana on the ballot. i think that could bode well for chris in this upcoming election. so it's -- it's a tossup let's face it down here. the country is as polarized now as it's ever been. i think people are looking for leaders that can bring others from across the aisle together. and i don't see a scenario yet where we have seen that and i think that if what we think is going to happen with the republicans control of the senate, i look at it as an

opportunity for them to show some leadership and reach across the aisle to try to get the people's business done before 2016. >> what has surprised you thus far? >> we expect that the republicans will win the senate, whether it's a runoff now or in january. we didn't expect the stumbles. we had a scare in south dakota early on. we have had some scares in some of the other states and frankly we'll be surprised. we counted on kansas and we may not win kansas. so those have been some surprises also we may get a republican governor in massachusetts in all blue blue states. >> there's a chance of some northeast republican wins that will shock people. charlie baker in massachusetts being the most likely. those i totally agree. greg orman in kansas you can't understate kansas not only unseating a conservative

governor, but electing an independent senator. you have the potential for a common sense coalition that can swing votes. the other thing to look out for tonight we may not know who runs the senate tomorrow morning. we could have a runoff in louisiana and in georgia and alaska won't come in until late late late. >> what's the chance that tomorrow morning we're trying to figure out what went on? >> i will say -- you know, depending on what the margin is there's a 25% chance we don't know tomorrow morning. >> the basic trajectory is following the expected tracks. sixth year election is always tough for the president. nine of the last 12 times the president's party has lost both the house and the senate seats. and plus democrats face a boom and bust problem. modern coalition is dependent on

the minority and the young voters who turn out much less in the midterms. the extent to which they have extended into the blue leaning states, iowa, colorado and then greg orman in kansas. kansas hasn't sent anyone but a republican to the senate since 1942. that's a long time. i think the fact he's this close, this far in, i think is the biggest individual race surprise of the season. >> mark, do you agree that tomorrow morning we have a 25% chance of not knowing what the outcome is? >> i was going to put it higher. by the way let's be clear. i'll be here until 3:00 in the morning. by 6:00 maybe. >> alaska will take a while. >> turnout over 25%? >> i say 35. >> you take the under? >> the parties are investing a lot of money to get the people to turn out. >> how much are the 2012 obama machine can goose turnout, but remember this. if you don't vote you lose your

right to complain for the next two years. >> not just democratic turnout, but republicans invested in colorado and georgia and iowa. >> you're seeing it bear fruit. >> greg, what's your prediction that you'd like to make? >> i agree with the panel. i think there's a distinct possibility we won't know by tomorrow morning. overa lot of people who won't vote for the opposite party who have such disgust with their own party that that's a vote for change. so while we're pushing for everybody to get out to vote, there's a significant amount of the people who will abstain as a way of protest. >> the nonvote is a protest. >> problem is that doesn't work. strong point by greg anthony. also, suggestions of people going to vote. just to highlight as we get out of the segment, in midterms you see a complete reversal to proportionality to young voters

and older voters. young people vote more during the presidential. and then it reveres in the midterms. this is a chance to get in there and have more of a role. >> panel, thank you. all right. marijuana on the mind for some voters. three states may vote to legalize it, but even if it passes it does not mean that people can light up right away. we'll explain. dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future.you.

thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance could be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. save your coffee from the artificial stuff. switch to truvia. great tasting, zero-calorie sweetness from the stevia leaf. there it is... this is where i met your grandpa. right under this tree. ♪ (man) some things are worth holding onto. they're hugging the tree. (man) that's why we got a subaru.

or was it that tree? (man) introducing the all-new subaru outback. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. (receptionist) gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics. we'll even buy you out of your contract.alaxy note 4 for zero down. so you can get the samsung galaxy note 4 for zero down today.

all right. here we go with the special five things to know for your new day. midterm elections are underway. republicans are hoping they are right as they try to regain control of the senate for final two years of the obama presidency. hundreds of parents and community members, even alumni on hands to welcome back students at maryvilles high, ten days after a sophomore shot and killed three fellow students before committing suicide. the st. louis county police chief denying that his department requested a no fly zone to keep news choppers away from ferguson following the michael brown shooting. almost three years after the "costa concordia" cruise ship disaster, the final body has been recovered. the remains of russell rebello

was found in a cabin. and lashing out at those who betray mission secrecy. one s.e.a.l. wrote about the osama bin laden raid about the other prepares to speak out about it. we'll update those on election day so be sure to go to the website for the latest. marijuana is on the ballot in several states today. don't bake a batch of brownies just yet. there's a catch. we'll explain. ng online is as easy as it gets. wouldn't it be great if hiring plumbers, carpenters and even piano tuners were just as simple? thanks to angie's list, now it is. we've made hiring anyone from a handyman to a dog walker as simple as a few clicks. buy their services directly at angieslist.com no more calling around. no more hassles. start shopping from a list of top-rated providers today. angie's list is revolutionizing local service again. visit angieslist.com today.

(receptionist) gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics. ♪ i thought it'd be bigger. ♪

♪ (dad) there's nothing i can't reach in my subaru. (vo) introducing the all-new subaru outback. love. it's what makes a subaru,a subaru. creeping up on you... fight back with relief so smooth... ...it's fast. tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue ...and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. ♪ tum, tum tum tum... smoothies! only from tums. dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future.you. thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance could be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.

good to have you back with us on "new day." more states vote to make marijuana legal today. voters in alaska an oregon. they could choose to legalize pot for people over 21. washington, d.c. could legalize it on a more limited basis. one issue is standing in the way. marijuana use is still illegal on a federal level. so does today's vote really mean anything in big picture? we brought in paul callan, legal analyst for us. you have it covered for us. it's so interesting to thing about this notion about where it leaves us on the stayed level. for example, the federal government has been hands off with both washington state and colorado. do people that possess it, and grow it, where it is legal in their state, do they risk being

arrested for a federal law there? >> they're breaking one or more federal laws but the risk of being arrested is minimal. the obama administration made noises they were going to enforce federal laws and then they slowly started to back away from that. so there's really been no federal law enforcement of these marijuana statutes in states where you have had legalization. >> another issue that i find fascinating is this notion of banking. so you have the companies makes all the money and they want do their banking but banks are says, look, we have to watch ourselves. we don't want to find ourselves in trouble with the feds. how do they manage that and is there a way to get around it or work with it? >> well, this is a complex problem because a lot of the federal banks are chartered by the federal government, they're chartered by state governments. and if they're trafficking in money which is derived from selling drugs, they're afraid they'll lose their federal charter. and be pun earned by the federal

government. a lot of them have said hands off now. the big marijuana dealerships become cash businesses and transferring bags of cash from one place to another. subjecting themselves to robberies. >> sure. >> so you have a strange underground economy going on. >> it might look cut and dried but it really isn't. let's take a case in point, washington, d.c. so washington, d.c., the situation is very interesting. poised to legalize marijuana, but yet a fourth of the land is federal land. you could be thinking i'm fine. you go across the street you're in federal land. you have created a real problem for yourself. >> the district of columbia is owned by the federal government. not a separate state. it's a federal entity. the capital of the united states, obviously. there are so many federal laws that make marijuana possession illegal. can you have the federal capital city legalize it while congress says it's still not legal?

so will congress overturn it and say we can't have that in the nation's capital? >> so many things to watch, how once the votes are determined how they will play out and the logistics and the legalities. paul callan, always a pleasure. thank you. of course, cnn has coverage of the election all day. election night in america begins at 5:00 p.m. and we'll have the latest results all night long. we're hoping that the lerktion turns in -- election turns into the good stuff for you out, but here is something that come out of a bad situation. this college freshman diagnosed with cancer, but she still had a dream and it involved a basketball court. and that's where this situation becomes a testament to the good stuff in all of us. wait until you hear this.

you can't breathe through your nose, suddenly, you're a mouth breather. a mouth breather! well, put on a breathe right strip and shut your mouth.

cold medicines open your nose over time, but add a breathe right strip and pow, it opens your nose up to 38% more. so you can breathe and do the one thing you want to do, sleep. add breathe right to your cold medicine shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right. and look for the calming scent of new breathe right lavender, in the sleep aisle. the good stuff. there's good out there and it shows itself in the worst of situations. case in point, lauryn hill,

dealt a terrible blow in the form of a cancer diagnosis and meant among other difficulties she would never get to fulfill her dream of playing college basketball. but her teammates had something else in mind. >> and a 5'11" freshman, from indiana, number 22, lauryn hill. >> this was the moment that should have been just the beginning for 19-year-old lauryn hill. the start of her college basketball career. but instead, sunday's game at cincinnati's mount st. joseph university marked the end of a mission that she has been on for more than a year -- getting to step on to this court before she died. it was while playing during her senior year in high school that she started to experience headaches. dizziness. an mri revealed an inoperable brain tumor. even through radiation and chemo therapy, she remained strong. >> motto is never give up. not that she ever did before.

i wouldn't imagine it would change now. >> hasn't changed much. >> but she's still not giving up. >> i never gave up for a second even when they told me i have a terminal diagnosis and i never for a second thought about sitting down and like just not living life anymore. >> that made keeping her commitment to the college team she signed with before her diagnos diagnosis. she still wanted to try to play, but this summer crushing news. her tumor was advancing quickly. doctors didn't expect her to live past this december. >> something they really do say -- because i can't do anything. >> while her cancer was incurable, basketball was a different story. the school petitioned the ncaa to move its first game up by two weeks. so lauren could still be in good enough health to play. tickets were in such high demand that officials moved the game

from the 2,000 seat arena to one that holds 10,000 and the game still sold out in less than an hour. finally, sunday, she took the court. as she scored first basket the entire building erupted. >> number 22. we will remember that layup forever. >> at halftime, she received an award for her courage from women's basketball legend pat summitt. >> this is a very big surprise. i'm just happy that everyone is here and supporting this and funding research for cancer. we're going to fight this and we're going find the cure. >> after it was all over, gratitude and renewed strength with the fight ahead. >> today is the best day i ever had. thank you guys so much. >> for cnn i'm rachel nichols. >> not a dry eye in the room. >> what a tremendous young lady.

>> and she is showing what often you only see in yourself in the worst of moments. reminds me of a kid once i met with, terminal cancer, i say, you ask yourself why you and the kid said, i don't the why me? >> wow. >> what a story. >> gives you perspective. >> proud of the ncaa for doing that. >> yeah. >> both teams went along with it to make that moment special. lauryn hill, you want to hear more about the story. she'll be speaking with rachel nichols 10:30 this friday on cnn. a lot of news this morning. we're watching the polls. opening up now. hopefully everybody is getting out before work or after work. let's get you right there with carol costello. we're falling apart, ca b