we'll see you back here at 10:00 eastern. >> "smerconish" is starting for you right now. welcome to the program. i'm michael smerconish. we have a great program today. digging down on some important stories with great guests. up first, a murder mystery with a shocking arrest. police say they have the man who killed an entire california family five years ago. how did they miss him when he was right in front of them? his interview with cnn and some of the bizarre things he told us. would a navy s.e.a.l. lie over the question of who killed osama bin laden. a former s.e.a.l. says it was him. why are others up in arms. the president is sending more troops to iraq with twice as many boots on the ground to root out isis.

is this mission creep? the cbs news reporter who says the president and her own news organization misled her and america about benghazi. is this really a case of media bias? all that and more, stick around. we start with a murder mystery that has baffled police for almost five years. now finally, an arrest in the killing of a california family. mcstays, a husband, wife, and their two young sons. they disappeared from their home near san diego in february of 2010. when police went to the house they found food still on the table. but only their two dogs in the house. the family's remains were found just a year ago in the desert. the most shocking aspect of this awful story, the identity of the man accused of killing this family. charles chase merritt was joseph mcstay's business partner and close family friend.

cnn's randy kay spoke exclusively to merritt before any one knew he was a suspect. she covered this for years and joins me now. randy. >> reporter: michael, in his only television interview chase merritt talked to me about his final meeting with joseph mcstay, the day that mcstay and his wife and young sons suddenly vanished. the interview was january of this year, and the mcstays had disappeared nearly four years earlier on february 4, 2010. merritt was mcstay's business partner. he says a close family friend. the two had met for lunch that day and nobody ever heard from joseph mcstay again. merritted that attention of authorities because he was with mcstay just hours before he disappeared. listen. >> you were the last person he saw. >> definitely the last person he saw. >> did joey have any enemies you knew of? >> none. none. everybody loved joseph. >> any idea why someone would want to harm him and his family? >> no.

there's nobody that i know of in his entire life that i'm aware of that would have any reason to hurt him. >> now police say chase merritt murdered the entire mcstay family and merritt may face the death penalty. the remains were found last november in two shallow graves in the mojave desert. now marked with giant crosses. by then nearly four years had passed and all of the while loved ones wondering what happened and who could wipe out an entire family including two beautiful small children. merritt told me about being questioned by authorities. >> you took a polygraph test. what did it show? >> i don't know. >> you passed the polygraph? >> apparently. i mean, i haven't -- after i took the polygraph test, law enforcement has not contacted me at all since. so i kind of simply assumed,

well, apparently that resolved any issues they may be looking at with me. >> did detectives ask you if you killed joseph mcstay and his family? >> i don't recall him asking me that. >> not that direct. not directly. >> no. i don't recall them being that direct. >> the night joseph mcstay disappeared chase merritt told me he got a call from mcstay's cell phone. he said it was late and he was tired so didn't answer. he said he was watching tv at the time with his girlfriend and didn't feel like having a long conversation. when we spoke he suggested that that was a missed opportunity not taking that call but now it's hard to know what to believe if joseph mcstay was the one making that phone call, or was it someone else. michael. >> wow. randi, thank you for. that we'll check back with you later. when the mcstays went missing, desperate relatives reached out to a texas company that specializes in finding missing people. the company is called texas equi

search and specializes in high profile cases like the disappearance of natalee holloway and the murder of caylee anthony in orlando. tim miller is the leader of the company, he has been on the mcstay case and joins me from houston. how surprised were you, you have spoken to this guy several times. how surprised were you by this arrest? >> i don't know if i was extremely surprised. you know, when we got down there, we actually went in the house, i talked to chase a couple times on the phone. and i didn't want to talk to him a lot because we're searchers, not investigators, i didn't want to get in trouble with the san diego sheriff department feeling as though we was interfering in a police investigation. but i think early on when we got in there, it was obvious that somebody knew the family that took the family, and the question was why did they murder

the children? it's obvious why they murdered the children. the children are old enough to recognize what you could say almost uncle chase. that's how close he was to the family. >> in other words, he would have been, tim, a known entity to the kids and theoretically then he'd have felt the need if he had it in for the parents, the need to kill the kids if they witnessed his behavior. >> well, definitely. and we felt that early on. and we went in that house, we really didn't want to go in that house. and we told michael at that time, michael, we don't need go in that house. you know. it's a crime scene. we're not going to contaminate a crime scene. and michael was firm that we went in the house and looked at stuff in the house, which we found real odd about going in that house and michael actually went in a back window, came to the side door. and let us in, step watch was there with me. and we actually videotaped probably everything that we did

in that house. we was in there probably an hour and a half. i remember going upstairs and looking in the mcstay's closet. i looked at michael. said where the hell's all the clothes at. there's no clothes in here. and there was one pair of his wife's shoes in there and they were high heel shoes. you know, michael said you know, that they were doing construction in the house and she was planting flowers and -- >> tim, is it fair to say now you look at the lack of clothing and you say that maybe he was setting that up sos to create the impression that the family had willingly disappeared. we only have 20 seconds left s. that what you think? >> i think that's pretty obvious that's exactly what happened. and then you know, we search, we had drone airplanes, we went down to the border. and then i met with detectives and then they showed me the video of a family crossing mexican border and they said it's pretty obvious it's them. they left on their own. so you know, i think in a way

san diego sheriff's department closed the book at that time. >> give me one final question if i might. motive. what would be the the motive of this guy? >> i think chase is the only one that knows and you know, i'm sure investigators got their theories, but i think we're going to be surprised when it comes out. i don't believe to this day that chase was involved by himself. i still think somebody else was involved. >> interesting. tim, by the way everybody, tune in tuesday, 9:00 p.m. for randy kay's special report. buried secrets who murdered the mcstay family. tim miller, thank you. when we come back the man who says he killed osama bin laden. did he? i hope a navy s.e.a.l. wouldn't lie. i'll talk to the man that wrote the book, and the president is sending a lot more troops to iraq. he says it's just to train iraqis and kurds. but with more american boots on the ground, where will it end?

you can't breathe through your nose, suddenly, you're a mouth breather. a mouth breather! well, put on a breathe right strip and shut your mouth. cold medicines open your nose over time, but add a breathe right strip and pow, it opens your nose up to 38% more. so you can breathe and do the one thing you want to do, sleep. add breathe right to your cold medicine shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right. and look for the calming scent of new breathe right lavender, in the sleep aisle.

with my andi can...m tracfone, order more shaving cream. pay the electric bill. keep towels piping hot. get kids to sit still. play beard styling tunes. learn new razor tricks. hire a pro waxer. post before and after pics. i can do all that with my android from tracfone. 90-day plans start as low as $20. unbeatable nationwide coverage. no contract. for a limited time save $30 on the new lg optimus fuel. now just $49.99. tracfone. do everything for less. please! no. for those headaches that just aren't bad enough for a lot of medicine, there's new excedrin mild headache. 35% less medicine plus a booster to end everyday headaches fast. please! oh, what a headache! actually...my headache's gone. excedrin mild headache. wow, that was fast! i got this. [thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving.

i hope he saved enough. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. whether you're just starting your 401(k) or you are ready for retirement, we'll help you get there. alriwe need to do somethinguble widifferent. ranch. callahan's? ehh, i mean get away, like, away away. road trip? double wings, extra ranch. feels good to mix it up. the all-new, fuel-efficient volkswagen golf tdi clean diesel. up to 594 miles of adventure in every tank.

big question this is week about a big moment in recent american history. who exactly shot osama bin laden? a second navy s.e.a.l. has now come out of the shadows to claim that he's the man who fired the shot that killed bin laden, in may of 2011. robert o'neill is a highly decorated s.e.a.l. but his story is contradicted by some colleagues. do they all want credit for firing that fatal shot? or is this what happens in the fog of war? in an audio interview with alex quait quaid he says that he and his fellow s.e.a.l.s were motivated by what happened on 9/11 t tragedy at the world trade center. >> was this about like -- >> the single mom who went to work on a tuesday morning, and later, a few minutes later decided to jump instead of

burning to death and her last gesture of human dignity was straightening out her skirt. and then she jumped. that's why we went for her. and for the -- all of the people, for the scott brady who was on a golf trip and the office was left. his brother was killed. we wanted rejustification of this is it. we're going to die but we're going to die when the house blows up but knowing that [ bleep ] so you know, going to get your answer is yeah, 9/11 is very significant. the reason we were there. >> this week he told the washington northeast he was one of three s.e.a.l.s who climbed the third floor. another s.e.a.l. fired the first shot at bin laden when he poked his head out after door but that shot missed. then o'neill says he went into the bedroom where bin laden

stood behind one of his wives and he fired the shots that killed the al qaeda leader. sources told peter bergen another story. they agree that the three s.e.a.l.s moved up the stairs, that the point man fired the first shot, but, they say he wounded bin laden as he looked out the door. then robert o'neill and a third s.e.a.l. finished him off as he lay on the floor. joining me to sort it out is peter bergen. he's written a lot about the raid including what i think is the definitive account and excellent book called "man hunt." what's going on. do they all want to be known as the man who killed bin laden? do they believe it? are they lying? is this what happens in the fog of war? >> well, michael, i think that i mean, only robert o'neill is definitively saying that i'm the man who killed bin laden. other accounts suggest somebody called the point man who hasn't publicly identified himself, and apparently will never do so, is the person who took the kill

shot. on some levels michael, in a way does it matter? it was obviously a team effort. if you took one person out of the team the whole thing would have collapsed. the helicopter pilot who basically, the first helicopter got into a lot of trouble, he was so skilled that he was able to put it down despite the fact that almost any other situation if there had been a helicopter crash at the beginning where people were injured the whole thing would have been called off. so, you know, a, it's a team effort. b, i think you used the term fog of war. it was a moonless night, no electricity in the house, no electricity in the neighborhood. there was a helicopter down, there were three fire fights before you get to bin laden. this all took all of those events took place in about 15 minutes. you know, it was confusing. >> peter, what seems clear is that many shots were fired into bin laden. maybe some after he was already dead. it makes me wonder is this an

explanation as to why the autopsy photos were never revealed because the navy s.e.a.l.s, i wouldn't blame them, with bin laden on the ground they all took a shot and hit him in the face. >> right. i mean, apparently, i have never seen the pictures but talked to people who have seen them, they are pretty gruesome. bin laden with a giant hole in his head. and there was a discussion by the principles in the cabinet whether to release these pictures and there was i think the reasonable kind of -- reasonable decision was made not to release them because it was seen as inciting anti-american violence. there are two accounts here. one is a more heroic one from robert o'neill saying he took the shot and there is matt bissonette, and other account who is say the point man winged bin laden and he was finished off. we'll never really know. there is no forensic evidence. these events probably took place

across 10 seconds. so you know, and people's accounts of regular car accidents are often very confused. so we don't -- we will never know definitively. >> peter, thank you so much. "man hunt" lays it out. revelation from s.e.a.l. team 6 are not sitting well with the remainder of the s.e.a.l. community that prides itself on anonymity. eric is a former navy s.e.a.l. officer deployed all over the world, written three books including the heart and the fist, the education of a humanitarian, the making of a navy s.e.a.l. it was a "new york times" bestseller and he joins us from cambridge. i don't know if you remember but close in time to the killing of bin laden you came on my radio program and i said to you, boy, i'd love to know who took that shot because some day i'd love to buy him a beer and i'll bet everybody else feels the same way. you said to me, i sure hope it never comes to that. what has happened in the

interim? >> i think one of the things, michael, that's really important is that one of the things we want to emphasize in the s.e.a.l. community there is a focus on team work. and when you and i were talking, we were talking about that we said you know, we didn't want these identities to be revealed because, in part, we want to make sure everybody knows that s.e.a.l.s faem size a teamwork effort. and just like peter was saying not only were there dozens of s.e.a.l.s, the pilots, not to mention that there were people who worked for 10 years on the intelligence, people who worked on logistics, worked on special operations. and this was a real victory not just for navy s.e.a.l.s or the special operations community but a victory for the american military, and a victory for everyone who supported the american military. and we want to make sure that everybody understands that s.e.a.l.s really emphasize humility in this ethic of service. >> within your tight knit community, did you all know rob

o'neill's the guy? >> you know, within the community one of the things that was emphasized was that we knew that there were a lot of people who were on the target that day, who had spent years preparing, training, preparing for an operation like this. we considered every single one of them to be the best operators in the world. and our emphasis always in the s.e.a.l. teams was not on who took a particular action but missions are accomplished when everybody does their job. that's what happened that night. >> eric, final question. are you troubled by the fact he has apparently been speaking across the country about his role as a s.e.a.l. including on this mission though i understand not telling people he took the definitive shot? >> you know michael, i say the same thing that admiral mccraven said. admiral mccraven was our special operations commander. he actually is a guy who studied

journalism, wrote a book on special operations tactics, gave one of the most widely shared commencement addresses. he said it's important for navy s.e.a.l.s to be out in public. they need to understand that we're out there as public servants, but the emphasis always was on two things. one is that when we're out in public we always want to make sure that we keep tactics, techniques and procedures secret, that need to remain secret. and we do that to protect s.e.a.l.s who are involved just today we've got 1500 more troops heading to iraq. we need to make sure we keep these things secret. and the second thing that we always faem size, michael, that this is a team effort and we want to understand virtue of humility out in front. >> great to see you again. thanks for your service. >> great to be on with you as always. up next sharyl attkison, a investigative reporter for cbs

news, she says that she has the scoop on what the president and her own news organization wasn't telling the rest of america about that deadly night in benghazi. sir, we're loaded and getting ready to go... ...we're going to need you on the runway. (vo) don't let a severe cold hold you back. sir? (vo) theraflu starts to get to work in your body in just 5 minutes. (vo) theraflu breaks you free from your worst cold and flu symptoms. (vo) theraflu. serious power.

we asked people a question how much money do you think you'll need when you retire? then we gave each person a ribbon to show how many years that amount might last. i was trying to like, pull it a little further got me to 70 years old i'm going to have to rethink this thing it's hard to imagine how much we'll need for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. so maybe we need to approach things differently, if we want to be ready for a longer retirement. ♪ let me get tyes?straight... lactaid® is 100% real milk? right. real milk. but it won't cause me discomfort. exactly, no discomfort, because it's milk without the lactose. and it tastes? it's real milk! come on, would i lie about this?

lactaid®. 100% real milk. no discomfort. and try lactaid® supplements with your first bite to dig in to all your dairy favorites.

welcome back to the program.

cheryl at isen made news lately with charges that she has seen liberal bias in the way cbs and others cover washington. she says she was a victim of it. the case in point she says is one of the most memorable moments of the 2012 campaign. in the second debate between president obama and governor romney, moderated by our candy crowley there was disagreement whether the president had characterized the attack on benghazi as an act of terror. >> want to make sure we get that for the record. it took the president 14 days before he called the attack in benghazi an act of terror. >> he did in fact, sir, so let me call it an act of terrorism. >> can you say that louder, candy. >> he did call it an act of terror. it did, as well, take -- it did as well take two weeks or so for the whole idea of there being a riot out there about this tape to come out. you are correct about that.

>> a transcript of the president's remarks in the rose guard at any day after the attack showed that obama had indeed used the words acts of terror, but there remained a question as to whether he was speaking of benghazi in particular. never the less the media largely treated the matter as if obama had been vindicated. not quite according to sharyl attkisson in her book "stone walled." she joins me now. how does this fit into what you see as a larger narrative about the media? >> what happened was there was actually a hidden interview that cbs news had with the president the same day he made the rose garden speech, he spoke to steve croft of 60 minutes and steve asked his first questions about the benghazi attacks and steve made the observation mr. president, you avoided using the word terrorism today in your

speech. and was asking why he did that and the president acknowledged, right, and he explained that why he did that was he said it was too early to tell and so on. at the time maybe that wasn't a big deal but certainly after the question was raised in the romney debate and we were sitting on a clip that appeared to prove president obama's version was wrong and romney's version was correct, i didn't know that tape existed. we weren't even told of it at least i was working on the story and not told. i was directed by the new york office to use a different clip which i felt in retrospect was entirely out of context, and use it in a way that appeared to defend the president's version rather than presenting the sound bite that would have shown that romney was perhaps correct. >> in other words, at a time when there is a debate between r and d about the president's words and what they meant sitting in the cbs vault, is a piece of sound, a piece of video from a steve croft interview the morning after benghazi that had not seen the light of day. i have it, let me show to the

everyone so they know what we're talking about. play that. >> this morning you went out of your way to avoid the use of the word terrorism in connection with the libya attack. >> right. >> you believe that this was a terrorist attack? >> well, it's too early to know exactly how this came about, what group was involved. but obviously it was an attack on americans. and we are going to be working with the libyan government to make sure we bring these folks to justice one way or the other. i know the way that you see this is that cbs deliberately sat on this because they didn't want to harm the president and media had moved on. i should point out that steve croft doesn't say you never used the word terror. he says you avoided it. i think he used it once. >> yes. he used it in his rose garden speech i think it's indisputable, once he segued to discussing that this was the anniversary of 9/11 and no acts of terror should go unpunished so he said it but it didn't appear to be, you could read it

different ways but in direct reference to benghazi, it didn't really become important until i think it was raised in the debate and i want to point out that "60 minutes" from what i viewed the evidence i viewed, sent that transcript and the information over to the cbs evening news so they had it. it's not as though "60 minutes" were sitting on the clip, it's in my opinion from what i know, the people on the cbs evening news that had possession of the clip and not only didn't use it but directed us to use a different clip from the same interview out of context. >> if i'm steve croft and this is playing itself out and i'm the one who scored that interview, and asked that question, wouldn't i be up in arms? wouldn't i be saying hey, i've got video that the country needs to see and that didn't take place. >> it may have. i didn't talk to steve, and i don't know what actions he took. but it's my understanding that some folks at "60 minutes" did re-send that transcript over when it became relevant after the debate as if, my read, to

remind evening news you have this clip, remember, you may want to use it and yet still it wasn't used. this is the type of story that would normally be a day of air story on the evening news than a "60 minutes" type piece. i don't think we can rule out that there were other actions taken, i'm just not aware of them. >> in the book you describe yourself as being politically agnostic, critics say yes, but always of her big hits are taking down democrats. hillary with regard to gun fire in bosnia, fast and furious, benghazi. respond to that if you would. >> the factual record shows otherwise. the emmy award i won last year involved an undercover investigation on republican freshmen fund raising, as we caught them in key largo hobnobbing with the sorts of donors they imply they would not hobnob with. i won involving the bush administration's bait and switch, the bank bailout. probably done an equal number of stories examining democrats and republicans regarding

shenanigans in congress. i like to talk about the praise from msnbc for investigating republican congressman steven buell activity. the factual record is different from the narrative some are trying to advance. >> sharyl attkisson, thank you for being here. >> when we come back, american boots on the ground in iraq, more heading to iraq. it's supposed to be a training mission. but nobody knows how far it will all go. we'll talk to a former military commander and get lowdown on what it will take to beat back isis.

let me get tyes?straight... lactaid® is 100% real milk? right. real milk. but it won't cause me discomfort. exactly, no discomfort, because it's milk without the lactose. and it tastes? it's real milk! come on, would i lie about this? lactaid®. 100% real milk. no discomfort.

and try lactaid® supplements with your first bite to dig in to all your dairy favorites. it's more than the car.er. for lotus f1 team, the competitive edge is the cloud. powered by microsoft dynamics, azure, and office 365, the team can gain real time insights and instantly share information around the globe. when every millisecond counts, staying competitive begins with the cloud. this is the microsoft cloud. welcome back to the program. president obama is sending additional 1500 troops to iraq. the white house says the soldiers will not have a combat role. instead will train iraqi and kurdish forces to battle isis. this new deployment brings the

total number of american troops in iraq to 2900. the administration's also asking congress to approve additional $5.6 billion in the fight against isis. lieutenant colonel rick francona is a cnn military analyst and former attache in syria. you're the military guy. i'm the political guy. let me tell what you i see. announcement being made on a friday, three days after the midterm elections, was this calculated to avoid a political debate in the midterms? >> i think it was, michael. and this is not something that just happened. i talked to some people at the pentagon and these troops have already moved. most are already in kuwait. this has been planned for some time. we're getting the announcement just now. >> is 2900 troops, 1500 more, is that enough for what this mission entails? >> it actually seems for the advisory mission that they describe initially this sounds like a lot of troops so i'm

wondering what more they are going to do. i know they are bringing more training people over because they realize that the iraqi military is in such bad shape. i think the numbers tell us just how bad the assessment was. when the pentagon took a look at the iraqi army, the status of the leadership, status of the troops, the equipment, they said this is really bad, we're going to have to bring more people in here to fix this. so i think training is kind of a loose word because i think we're going to be doing a lot of on hands leadership training, and a lot of on hands, let's get this fixed. because we've got to give the iraqis back something they can use. if we expect the iraqis to go out into the field and take on isis, something they have proven very inept at doing without american troops with them, as advisers in those units, the battalions we have to invest a lot more in training and time and getting these people back up to speed. >> is the real story the announcement was yesterday but

that these troops are en route if not already in kuwait? >> i'll leave that to the politicians to hash out. but it's been no secret at the pentagon that they were moving these people. and we've seen them gathering there. the announcement comes after i think the decision was made. i think that it's probably better to have the troops ready to go in and then make the announcement. i don't assign a sinister view to that. but i was shocked when i heard the numbers, doubling the size, and you know, we hate to use that term mission creep, but it has to. we cannot do what we wanted to do with the small cadre we had there. and i think that realization is sinking in, in washington. >> colonel, final question. is the number misleading, 2900, 1500. aren't there also contractors in place and frankly, we should be adding them in the mix if we want to know how many americans are there? >> i think that's a good point. but i think it goes further than

that. let's look at who is in jordan, kuwait, in the uae, in qatar. you take the totality of the u.s. effort that is for kissed on iraq, all of these air strikes that are flown in syria and iraq, very, very few if any are flown from iraq. all of those are from out of country. so the numbers are misleading. it's going to be in the tens of thousands, not 3100, 2900 they are talking about. >> glad i asked. thank you. it's always for your expertise. i'm going to take a quick break. up next republicans cleaned up in the midterm elections, so does that mean they are going to have an easy task in 2016 in winning the white house? i'll speak with a man who will crunch some numbers for us. sea captain: there's a narratorstorm cominhe storm narrator: that whipped through the turbine which poured... surplus energy into the plant which generously lowered its price

and tipped off the house which used all that energy to stay warm through the storm. chipmunk: there's a bad storm comin! narrator: the internet of everything is changing how energy works. is your network ready?" it's about getting to the finish line. in life, it's how you get there that matters most. like when i found out i had a blood clot in my leg. my doctor said that it could travel to my lungs and become an even bigger problem. so he talked to me about xarelto®. >>xarelto® is the first oral prescription blood thinner proven to treat and help prevent dvt and pe that doesn't require regular blood monitoring or changes to your diet. for a prior dvt i took warfarin, which required routine blood testing and dietary restrictions. not this time. while i was taking xarelto®, i still had to stop racing, but i didn't have to deal with that blood monitoring routine. >>don't stop taking xarelto®, rivaroxaban, unless your doctor tells you to. while taking xarelto®, you may bruise more easily and

it may take longer for bleeding to stop. xarelto® may increase your risk of bleeding if you take certain medicines. xarelto® can cause serious bleeding, and in rare cases, may be fatal. get help right away if you develop unexpected bleeding, unusual bruising, or tingling. if you have had spinal anesthesia while on xarelto®, watch for back pain or any nerve or muscle related signs or symptoms. do not take xarelto® if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. tell your doctor before all planned medical or dental procedures. before starting xarelto®, tell your doctor about any conditions such as kidney, liver, or bleeding problems. xarelto® is proven to reduce the risk of dvt and pe, with no regular blood monitoring and no known dietary restrictions. treatment with xarelto® was the right move for me. ask your doctor about xarelto® today. i'm on expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for, because i'm raising two girls on my own.

i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your future? we'll help you get there. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click;

then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer5. welcome back. do republicans automatically have an advantage in the 2016 presidential election because they trounced democrats in the midterms? believe it or not answer is no. so what do republicans need to do if they want to capture the white house in two years? neil newhouse is a republican pollster. he was mitt romney's pollster in 2012. thank you for being here. educate my audience about the big blue wall. >> michael, the big blue wall, it is consistent number of states that have gone democratic in the last election cycles that makes it difficult for

republicans to make it to the 270 electoral vote. to back up. we're all four days away from the midterm elections, we already stopped talking and stopped celebrating those, and are looking forward to 2016. so what 2014 means for 16 is not that much. you look at what happened in 2010, for instance, republicans had a terrific year in 2010. picked up 60 seats in the house, set us up for a big win in 2012. what happened, we lost that election. so you can't -- you can't look at 14 and say hey, we got a strong advantage going into 16. it's going to abtough election. >> one of the reasons is the map. that's why i wanted to show the big blue wall. another of them, you wrote about them t demographic issue. i found this significant. 2008, john mccain gets 55% of the white vote, 2012, mitt romney gets 59% of the white vote. what is it going to take for a

republican candidate to win in 2016? >> well, if you assume that we're going to get the same percent of african-americans and hispanics as in the last election it's going to take 64% of the white vote to win. that's an unreal high number. i don't think we can get there. to move this forward, for republican to win the presidency, in 2016, we've got to do much better among latino voters and we've got to make some in roads among african-americans. >> so doesn't that, then, place particular importance on what's about to unfold between the president and presumed majority leader come january, mitch mcconnell on the immigration matter? here's neil newhouse, you are the number cruncher saying guys, if we don't start winning hispanics and african-americans there aren't enough white votes to sustain us. >> yeah. the pressure between mitch mcconnell and barack obama on this issue is going to be pretty extraordinary. and even with the need to do

well among latino voters, i think if the president puts forth an executive action granting amnesty to undocumented immigrants i think that's 2ing to cause real problems in the u.s. senate. we have a lot of road blocks and a lot of things to get through but before now in 2016, and that immigration issue is just the beginning of it. >> final point. one year after the 2012 cycle together with the obama pollster, you did a cover story for esquire and you said the real power in this country, the i's. >> the i's had it in 2014. republicans won the independents. 2012, mitt romney won among independent voters but you know what, it wasn't enough because the democrats did a phenomenal job of getting out their vote. i think if you step back at this now, this marks essentially the end of the obama administration

in the beginning of democrats now turning to hillary clinton to be their leader and to lead the party. >> neil newhouse, great analysis. thank you for being here. when i come back from the break the israelis and palestinians at each other's throats again, violence on the streets of jerusalem. has a third intifada begun? from, i can... order more shaving cream. pay the electric bill. keep towels piping hot. get kids to sit still. play beard styling tunes. learn new razor tricks. hire a pro waxer. post before and after pics. i can do all that with my android from tracfone. 90-day plans start as low as $20. unbeatable nationwide coverage. no contract. for a limited time save $30 on the new lg optimus fuel. now just $49.99. tracfone. do everything for less. but when we start worrying about tomorrow,

we miss out on what matters today. ♪ at axa, we offer advice and help you break down your retirement goals into small, manageable steps. because when you plan for tomorrow, it helps you live for today. can we help you take a small step? for advice, retirement, and life insurance, connect with axa. for advice, retirement, and life insurance, sir, we're loaded and getting ready to go... ...we're going to need you on the runway. (vo) don't let a severe cold hold you back. sir? (vo) theraflu starts to get to work in your body in just 5 minutes. (vo) theraflu breaks you free from your worst cold and flu symptoms. (vo) theraflu. serious power.

welcome back to the program. remember of course the gaza war wasn't that long ago. scenes of civilians dying, palestinians and israelis, if the situation in the middle east continues to escalate, we could be seeing another round of sustained bloody violence. yesterday in east jerusalem palestinians threw rocks at israeli soldiers who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. anger reached a peek when a palestinian plowed his van into pedestrians at a rail station. two israelis were killed. police shot the driver dead. adding to the increasing tension, israel's economic minister wrote a piece in "the new york times" arguing that israel cannot permit a palestinian state to be established. joining me now is a journalist and foreign policy analyst and daniel levy, director of the middle east and north

palestinianss also have their rights and securities. >> i think here in the united states we regard netanyahu as being so hawkish.

saying floz way these palestinians are have a state. during the war in gaza if i'm not wrong he went on air and he said there is no way, under no circumstances i will relinquish control. but today we live in an aquarium world. what you saw these images are people are shooting inside of the mosque. can you imagine if anything horrific can happen to that mosque which is the third most important holy site for muslims around the world. what that means in terms of the regional dynamic, it lead to more extremists. so if you don't want hamas, give palestinians something. today we cannot accept anybody can be enslaved in their own

country. >> any reason thus far there hasn't been a u.s. role in this? the alleged comment by a highly placed administration official. >> i think it was unfortunate use of terminology. i think the americans understand the prime minister nett yanyahu the prime minister of israel. he will have to decide how he uses the power. domestic politics in makes it difficult for the u.s. to use its leverage. i think netanyahu decided what the coalition would be. he's chosen to feed the beast. and i think americans have to understand he has to take responsibility. they can't do it for him. >> respond that. >> i agree with daniel and unfortunately what's happening in america today with senate and congress that is totally

republican and somehow majority republican, our foreign policy is into the checkbooks of the apex groups. and america cannot be a fair partner. cannot be actually somebody that is not bias. and that is -- american interest in the region is compromised and standing in the world compromised because of their bias towards israel. >> netanyahu has more power in this senate than barack obama. >> absolutely. and what drooives extremist in e world is palestinian issue is number one. we're creating the pressure cooker for extremists in the world. if you look at their oppression and the denying of basic rights and you look at 47 years of

unoccupation, where is that taking us. >> candaniel. the construction in east je jerusalem has been a flash point. netanyahu these are not settlements in the west bank. those our capitol, future capitol and should be treated differently. >> that requires a moment of in history. israel occupied gaza and illegally an nexed many areas. when russia did that in crimea it was considered illegal. it's just as illegal what israel has done. so any building in that illegally occupied area is wrong. it fuels the fire. now settlers and extremists are moving in displacing palestinians. unfortunately at some stage israel will either have to get a handle on what it's doing or it

must give palestinians equal rights. >> i wish i had more time. thank you both. we'll be right back. for retirement. but when we start worrying about tomorrow, we miss out on what matters today. ♪ at axa, we offer advice and help you break down your retirement goals into small, manageable steps. because when you plan for tomorrow, it helps you live for today. can we help you take a small step? for advice, retirement, and life insurance, connect with axa.

everyone is looking for ways while to cut expenses.s unique, for advice, retirement, and life insurance, and that's where pg&e's online business energy checkup tool can really help. you can use it to track your actual energy use. find rebates that make equipment upgrades more affordable. even develop a customized energy plan for your company. think of it as a way to take more control over your operating costs. and yet another energy saving opportunity from pg&e. find new ways to save energy and money with pg&e's business energy check-up.

don't forget you can follow me on twitter as long as you can spell "smerconish." see you next week. so good to see you on a saturday morning. welcome. >> it's 10:00 in the east, 7:00 in the west. you were in the cnn news room. we begin in great britain where police say they have disrupted the terror plot. arrested four men in a series of

raids. according oto a statement from london metropolitan police they were arrested on suspicion on thursday night of on suspicion of the islamic terrorist offenses. >> most in london. one outside in high wickham. all between 19 and 27. and a special firearm was used in the arrests. that's unusual because police don't always carry firearms. in this case they felt there was enough cause oto zo do. and one of the suspects was arrested apparently on the street. they are being held in suspicion of planning a the terror attack. with e don't know the details but what we know there are a number of high profile events coming over the