situation room." situation room." have a great weekend. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com happening now, pounding isis. the u.s. and its allies launch dozens of new strikes in syria and iraq. has the u.s.-led campaign finally broken the terror group's momentum? bloody fighting, as ukrainian forces battle pro-russian rebels, russia is looking to send more heavy weapons across the border and vladimir putin heads for a showdown with world leaders. nuclear weapons scandal. investigators find three bases in three states were forced to share one wrench to arm their missiles. what is the pentagon doing about it? not guilty. >> and facing a judge. uva suspect jesse matthew appears in court and enters his plea in a decade-old sexual assault case. we'll learn what's next. wolf blitzer is off today. i'm jim sciutto and you're in "the situation room."

we are tracking major developments this hour. 35 new air strikes hammer isis targets across a vast front. and on the ground, iraqi troops drive isis out of a key city. is the tide finally turning in the war against this terror group? and stunning, new images as pro-russian rebels battle government troops in eastern ukraine. is russia ready to bring more heavy weapons into the fighting? congresswoman tulsey gabbert, an iraq war veteran, is standing by, along with our correspondents, analysts and newspapers. we begin, however, with isis. despite growing concerns that it may join forces with al qaeda factions, growing doubts about the u.s. strategy, the terror group is coming under heavy battlefield pressure from the u.s.-led coalition. cnn global affairs correspondent elise labott is here. what's the latest today? >> jim, today the coalition

announced three dozen air strikes against isis in iraq and syria. the militants also suffered a major defeat of a strategic stronghold in iraq, but their leader warns, this has only strengthened isis's resolve as the group forms a worrisome alliance with another u.s. enemy. on the ground in kobani near the turkish border, isis fighters trade fire with syrian kurds, as the u.s. and other countries unleashed 35 air strikes against the terror group in the last three days between syria and iraq. cnn is told intelligence estimates suggest isis, also known as isil, is showing signs of stress from the onslaught. maybe one reason the terror network is cooperating with al qaeda-linked al nusra front. >> isil has to continue to advance to succeed. it has to maintain momentum, and we've begun to break that momentum. >> reporter: but isis leader taunting the coalition as a failure. in a purported audio message,

abu bakr al baghdadi called the coalition "terrified, weak and powerless," threatening volcanos of jihad everywhere. >> it should come as no surprise that an organization like isil would be putting out these type of threatening rhetoric that's conveying and calling for more brutality. >> reporter: the campaign got a boost today as iraqi forces drove isis from the strategic town of baji, ending their month-long siege on the country's largest oil refinery. government control of baji could be a turning point, cutting off isis supply lines to its stronghold in tikrit. to capture all of the territory lost to isis, the president's top military adviser said iraq will need 80,000 troops. and the joint chiefs chairman said additionally, u.s. advisers will be needed for complex missions expected in mosul and to secure the syrian border. >> i'm not predicting at this point that i would recommend that those forces in mosul and along the border would need to be accompanied by u.s. forces, but we're certainly considering

it. >> reporter: for just the third time, the u.s. went after the al qaeda-linked khorasan group, believed to be the biggest threat to the u.s., hitting them near aleppo. and today, the u.s. released its first report on isis crimes, presenting a horrifying picture of life in isis-controlled areas, including beheadings, torture and rape, concluding, isis is deliberately committing war crimes against civilians in their controlled areas. >> it is incredible, so much evidence of that. thank you, elise labott in washington. i want to turn to cnn international correspondent arwa damon. she's on the ground near the turkish/syrian border. arwa, what are you hearing, what are you seeing on the ground? any evidence that the u.s.-led campaign is starting to dampen, at least, isis momentum? >> reporter: well, jim, this is what we have been hearing and seeing for quite some time now, and that is that isis has been forced to change its tactics. they can no longer move around in larger groups, and they are

oftentimes seeking shelter, deeply embedded within the civilian population where those air strikes could not necessarily target them. they also, as we have seen video emerging from fallujah, begun digging under ground, setting up elaborate bunker-tunnel structures well under ground away from where air strikes could potentially hit them. at the same time, though, there has been something of a side effect to all of these strikes, especially those targeting the al qaeda-linked khorasan group and other non-isis groups as well, and that is to drive even more fighters to the terrorist organization. we saw this when isis first moved into syria. they managed to actually lure quite a number of fighters away from the al qaeda-linked nusra front, either because those fighters believed that isis provided them a better chance on the battlefield, because they were simply more powerful, or because when isis took over the areas that al nusra used to control, the fighters simply

defected. and this we have seen accelerated as u.s. air strikes continue to intensify. so, on the one hand, perhaps isis has been forced to change its tactics. perhaps it is losing some momentum in the sense that it's not advancing with the same speed we have been seeing it advance, but it is still managing to recruit fighters, both locally and internationally, jim. >> big question, of course, is how good is u.s. intelligence on the ground there to measure the effects of these things? and that's still a developing part of the story. thanks very much to arwa damon on the turkish/syrian border. back here at home, after a series of problems, blunders and outright scandals in the u.s. nuclear force, defense secretary chuck hagel today outlined a costly overhaul of the system. cnn's tom fordman is here. tom, this is an embarrassing situation for some of the most sensitive forces. what did you learn today? >> yeah, jim, this new assessment from the pentagon would be alarming to almost anyone and dismaying even to the most optimistic military folks out there.

in the dangerous world of nuclear missiles and strategic bombers, it's hard to imagine a simple hand tool could be a problem, but the pentagon review found supplies were so neglected, workers at three nuke sites were sharing a single specialized wrench for more than 400 missiles. >> how did they do it? they did it by federal expressing the one wrench around to each base. they were creative and innovative, and they made it work, but that's not the way to do it. >> reporter: the pentagon is now acknowledging many such troubles, including an inspection regimen that nitpicked insignificant details while ignoring potentially serious issues, like leaky hydraulic seals on aging missile blast doors, making it impossible to close them properly. a culture of inefficiencies, mic micromanagement and daily shortages in equipment, qualified personnel, facilities and funding, even badly outdated

helicopters being used to service nuclear operations. choppers that came into service under president nixon during the vietnam war. >> we just have kind of taken our eye off the ball here, and if we don't fix this, eventually, it will get to a point where there will be some questions about our security. >> reporter: officials say these problems grew in part from the fighting in iraq and afghanistan, which forced the pentagon to choose between sending resources to battle or to the nuke program. >> when you have to make a hard choice like that, you're going to support the war fighter, and you make as best as you can. >> reporter: still, embarrassing lapses have resulted, such as an incident last year in which a missile bay door was left open and unattended while one cerew member slept and another went for food. recently, reports of missile officers cheating on proficiency tests. making up for the shortfalls will cost a fortune. the pentagon spends $15 billion

a year already on nukes and officials say that will have to be increased by 10% and even then, it will take years to undo the damage. >> big morale problems there, too. we want to go more in-depth on this. congresswoman telsey gabbert served in iraq and now serves on the armed services and foreign affairs committees. thanks very much for joining us. >> thanks, jim. >> great to have you on. you listen to this, it's not just an isolated incident. it seems to be a culture of failure, inattention, morale, et cetera. how concerned are you about the danger, and is this a national security threat? >> i'm deeply concerned and this is a very dangerous situation that has to be a very high priority for us to fix. i think we can look back at administrations since the cold war from both parties that should take responsibility for us being in this position, but especially looking at the last decade. when we look at the trillions of dollars and spending money, unfortunately, sacrificing precious american lives in nation-building in iraq and the middle east and spending all of these resources there while

neglecting very serious situations, such as this here at home. so, we've got to make it a priority to fix it for the safety of the american people, but also as we look at russia, putin flexing his muscles. we've got to make sure that we have this nuclear deterrent in place. >> now they're talking about spending another $15 billion to solve the problems. please stay with us. we want to get into isis and ukraine. representative telsey gabbert. we have a lot more to come after this short break. i got this. [thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving. i hope he saved enough. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. whether you're just starting your 401(k) or you are ready for retirement, we'll help you get there.

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we're back with democratic congresswoman tulsi gabbard of hawaii, serving on the armed services and foreign affairs committees and also served two combat tours herself in iraq. fewer people can speak more knowledgeably on the issue of isis and the strategy. general dempsey in the hearings yesterday said that he is, in his words, certainly considering that u.s. forces accompany iraqi forces on a particular mission he had in mind, you know, eventually, if iraqi forces go to take back mosul, a key city and key stronghold for them. you know, this is the sixth or seventh time where he has refused to take that option off the table, whereas the president has said repeatedly there will be no ground forces. is the president being honest when he says he will not send ground troops to iraq? >> well, i think, first of all, we've got to recognize, we have troops on the ground in iraq right now. >> for sure. how about combat? be more specific, because that sounds like combat to me. >> look, they're armed, and i'm sure they're carrying ammunition. if fired upon, i'm sure they will return fire. >> but it's more than that,

because yes, they can defend themselves, but he was talking about sending them with iraqi forces on what would be an offensive mission, going to take back ground and would put them, if they're -- you know, this is not being back in a command post in baghdad. it would be on the front lines. that's combat, isn't it? >> yeah, it is, absolutely. and i think that the american people can sense the dishonesty and the lack of clarity in exactly what our mission is there, which has been the problem from day one. you and i have talked about this before. without a clear sense of mission, then we can't come up with a clear, effective, tactical strategy to defeat our enemy, the islamic extremists that are isis. i would not support and i do not support our troops, more american lives, going back into iraq, going back into the middle east, simply to prop up this still-dysfunctional central government of iraq and to still prop up this nation-building mission that really has been a failure for so long. >> now, you said not just unclear, but dishonest. you're saying that the policy is

dishonest? >> we have troops on the ground there right now. and what's being proposed is putting american lives at risk in combat in the face of the enemy. i think we've got to take a look at what we should be doing. we've got troops right now in iraq in the kurds, in the peshmerga, who still, i questioned general dempsey and the secretary yesterday -- will the arms and the funds that they're requesting from congress go directly towards the kurds who have been the trusted boots on the ground in this fight from the get-go? and i didn't really get an answer, but basically, they said no. they said, no, these funds will continue to be funneled through the central iraqi government, which is still being led by a shia-led government when we have the sectarian divide and fighting still going on between the shias, the sunnis, and the kurds. we can't go forward like that. >> so much distrust there. the other issue you pressed on was this idea of, again, we're in a situation, we, the u.s. and the military, in training local forces, and basically, placing

the success of the mission on the backs of local special forces, whether kurdish or iraqi. your comments yesterday, you said how can the u.s. be walking down the same path as a decade ago and hoping for a different outcome? is the u.s., in your view, repeating a mistake with iraqi forces? >> that is what i am so afraid of. and as i sat in that hearing listening to those words, i did feel i was in a time warp, and that's one of my greatest concerns, that the united states does the same thing again, continuing down this failed mission of nation-building and propping up this shia-led government and not focusing on what's in the best interests of the united states. we have an enemy in these islamic extremists who are a threat to the united states and the american people, and the strategy that's being conducted right now is not one that directly addresses that threat. rather, it pulls more of our resources away from what we just talked about, from nuclear arms infrastructure concerns that have to be addressed here at home and elsewhere. >> because that's a fair question, because the u.s.

military had tens of thousands of troops in iraq, hundreds of trainers, became a central part of the policy then, trained up before. so 250,000 -- >> security forces, right. now they're calling them the national guard. >> right. >> and these are the troops we're talking about who dropped the arms that we left behind -- >> and ran away. >> -- and ran away. why we would commit more u.s. dollars and potentially put more u.s. troops, putting their lives on the line to conduct this same mission makes no sense to me. >> well, it's interesting now, so, that's iraq. at least in iraq you have a couple hundred thousand iraqis, 100,000 or so, depending how you count them, kurdish peshmerga. now, when you look to syria, in the best-case scenario, you're training up 5,000 to 15,000 rebels who are clearly, often out-matched on the battlefield by both isis, al nusra front, assad forces. i assume when you look at the syria option, that looks even worse to you in terms of how that's going to work, training the local forces, as your ground troops. >> it does. it does, because in the

so-called syrian moderate opposition forces, we don't have the trusted allies that we have in the kurds in northern iraq. what we see there is a group that we don't know who they will be fighting with or against. if we had armed these moderate sunni forces in the last year or two years, as secretary clinton and others had advocated for -- >> they wouldn't be so far behind, is that your feeling? >> we would have been arming what we see now today as isis. we saw just in the last week or ten days ago al nusra has switched sides and are now fighting with isis and overran one of these syrian moderate opposition elements, and they left behind the heavy weapons that the u.s. had been providing to them. >> this is a concern that the shoulder-fired missiles -- >> exactly. >> -- that isis has now, known as man pads, that they might have come from what gulf states gave to some of these fighters, our allies, frankly. i want to get to a big debate on the new authorization for the war. even the president himself says

he wants to seek it, which means he presumes he needs it. does that mean the war now, run off the 2001 authorization dating back to 9/11, is illegal? >> i think we do need a new authorization. i think it is a stretch to justify, especially using the 2002 iraq aumf to authorize the action even that's taking place today, right now in iraq. we can identify who our enemy is in al qaeda, in isis. >> but to be clear, we need a new authorization. what the president said as well. but if we need it, does that presume that the war is illegal today without it? >> it depends on what the mission is. if the mission is to fight against these islamic extremists who are responsible for 9/11 -- al qaeda, isis, whatever name they've morphed themselves into, whatever name they call themselves by, there are actions that can be covered in my view by the 2001 aumf. but to also use what the

president is using, the iraq authorization, i think that the situation we're seeing today doesn't have any bearing to what was intended in 2002. >> can we get enough democrats, can you get enough democrats and republicans to vote for i new authorization? >> this depends on what it's going to say. >> and major open questions including whether that authorization includes the provision of ground troops. a lot of open questions in that debate. thanks very much, congresswoman tulsi gabbard of hawaii. iraq veteran. >> good to see you. coming up, a doctor with ebola being brought to the u.s. for treatment once again. we're learning new details, including when he might arrive here. plus, the suspect in the disappearance of hannah graham makes his first courtroom appearance in a separate assault case from 2005. how jesse matthew pleaded. that's just ahead. huh, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that. well, did you know genies can be really literal? no.

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preparations are under way right now for a new ebola patient being brought here to the u.s. for treatment. and sources tell cnn the victim, who's a surgeon, could arrive here as early as tomorrow. cnn's senior medical correspondent, elizabeth cohen, is working the story for us. elizabeth, what's the latest on yet another ebola victim coming to the u.s.? >> right, jim, this will be patient number ten in the united states. and what we know about this man, as you said, he's a surgeon, he is a sierra leone national, but he has legal permanent residency in the u.s. his wife is a u.s. citizen. they have children here. and he's being sent to nebraska

medical center. now, this will be nebraska medical center's third ebola patient. nebraska is one of four biocontainment facilities in the united states. they have specially trained to handle ebola patients. we don't know what kind of treatment he's going to get, but the other two patients in nebraska, they received an experimental antiviral drug, plus a blood transfusion from an ebola survivor. jim? >> elizabeth, i know you just sat down with cdc director tom friedman, spoke about these recent cases, particularly in the u.s. what did he tell you about how the u.s. is handling them? >> dr. frieden reflected back on the ebola crisis this fall and he said that a lot went the way that it should have and some of it could have been done better. let's take a listen to what he had to say. were there any surprises? >> i think we didn't recognize how hard it would be to care for someone with ebola who is desperately ill in the u.s. and how much hands-on nursing care there would be, and we didn't

expect two health care workers to get infected. >> when you got the news that nurse nineteen dwa pham had bec infected, how did that feel? >> it was just so, so concerning. we were concerned about her health. we were concerned that there could be additional cases. and we were concerned about every one of the other health care workers there, because we recognized then that they were all at significant risk. >> now, certainly, time has shown us something that the cdc got right, and that's that dr. frieden and others said all along, it's hard to get ebola. your chances of getting it on an airplane or on a subway or sitting in a restaurant next to someone who's infected, if they're not ill, are very teeny tiny. now, people freaked out anyhow. people got very worried when they were on a plane with the nurse who was infected or if they were on the subway in new york, but it turned out none of those people got sick. i think there's a lesson in there, jim, that people shouldn't freak out. >> yeah, and that's a good message. thanks very much.

please stand by, because we want to bring in cnn medical analyst dr. zahn van telican, and dr. sim ana jasmine, who is a forme detective and now writes for "the dallas morning news." doctor, not a u.s. citizen, but married to a u.s. citizen, so a legal, permanent resident. i guess the confusion here is what is the criteria for who of the people who catch this disease in west africa are allowed to come to the u.s. for treatment? is there a standard or is this decided case by case? >> at the moment, jim, what we can say is that the people who have been airlifted from west africa to the u.s. for treatment in these special biocontainment units have been u.s. citizens, or in this instance, a legal permanent resident of the u.s. there's something else that's really important to bear in mind, jim, is is the patient stable enough to be put on an airplane and transported u.s.? of course, you want to offer the

best medical care available, but you want to make sure it's not detrimental to their health and that 10-hour flight transportation time can take its toll. a spokesperson at the nebraska unit said this patient is still being assessed to see if they're stable enough for a 10-hour flight. >> and fair question. elizabeth cohen, you said it well just a couple of minutes ago, don't freak out. but there are dangers here. there are risks. what are the risks if at all substantial to let these people with ebola come to the u.s.? >> you know, people come into the u.s. with ebola in two ways so far. one of them is how this surgeon is scheduled to come in tomorrow, and that's in a biocontainment unit that's inside an airplane. he then goes to a facility that has an excellent isolation unit. you know, he's not going to get anyone sick. all of the people working with him are well protected. this facility is their third person, nobody got sick. so, we should all remember, ten patients, nobody else got sick except those ten patients. and unfortunately, two nurses who were caring for thomas eric

duncan. so, the chances, for example, that this surgeon is going to get anyone sick are very small. and as i said before, even when people come in and they don't realize they're sick, you know, craig spencer in new york. he didn't get anyone else sick. it just hasn't happened. >> dr. van telikan, elizabeth gets at a particular kind of case. we know the latest victim, who we're not identifying, is sick before they come here and is directed then to one of the places in the country that is specially prepared for this, that is, the nebraska medical center in omaha. they have all they need. they have all the training. the weakness is, i imagine, when someone who returns, don't know they have it they walk into a regular er. has the u.s. gotten better? has the cdc properly gotten all the information out and have the hospitals gotten all the equipment they need to treat walk-in cases like that >> i think we've massively changed what we're doing. the cdc have really finessed their risk stratification for people arriving at airports. for a start, they've just said

there are only five airports that you can actually come to. now, it's possible that someone could leave west africa, go to a different, maybe change their passport, change a ticket, but basically, we've limited the number of places they can arrive. they're screened on arrival. and the screening questionnaire is pretty supple to figure out who is putting us most at risk and who needs to be isolated and who needs to be monitored and who doesn't pose any threat at all. so, i think we have gotten much, much better at it. i wouldn't be concerned about any patient arriving in this way posing any threat to anyone else at all. but as sima said, it's not even clear at the moment whether or not he's fit to be transported. >> learning as we go. dr.as minute, the obama administration's new ebola czar, ron klain, said that the u.s. should expect to see other ebola cases, in his words, occasionally and sporadically going forward. how often do you think u.s. health care facilities will have to be dealing with cases like this? >> jim, we're told that as long as the outbreak continues in west africa, and it is still spreading there, let's be clear about that, we are at risk of

seeing imported cases in other countries in the world. some of the scientists tell me that we could see upwards of three people every month leave the hot zone in west africa with ebola. and they could potentially arrive in dallas, texas, or anywhere else in the u.s., as we've already seen. and that's why it's crucial that hospitals gear up and get ready to treat patients. >> final question, if i can, perhaps for you, dr. van telikan. this is your expertise in diseases like this. there is a lot of upset in west africa that americans get this special treatment, while people are still dying on the ground by the hundreds, you know, in many cases in these countries. has the international country gotten that balance right, how they react to victims over there and victims here? >> i mean, it's not a problem that's limited to ebola. i mean, you see health care inequality, you see it between the rich and the poor in america, and you see it hugely between the global north and the global south. i would say we absolutely have not got the balance right. i mean, if you look at the survival rates in america, we've

had, out of the -- well, out of the nine people so far, we have had eight survive. nothing like those kind of numbers in west africa. and we hear scenes in hospitals where people haven't been able to get iv fluids, they're not getting monitoring. basically, they're isolated, they're given some pain relief and whether or not they survive may be almost a kind of part luck situation. we're building facilities, but we still have a low number of high-care ebola treatment facilities in africa. i think if you're in west africa, absolutely, the inequality of the situation hugely upsetting, and we do need to do much, much, much more to control this epidemic. it's worth saying at the moment, mali has had another case -- we've had several cases now, facing another outbreak. they're contacting other people and this is potentially spreading to other areas of the region as well. >> thank you, dr. van tulleken

and dr. yasmiyn and our medical correspondent. coming up, he pleads guilty in a decade-old sexual assault case. we're going to learn what's next. and an arctic blast is bringing early winter weather to more than half of the country. what it means for your weekend. how much money do you have in your pocket right now? i have $40, $21. could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement? i don't think so. well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. ♪

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liberty mutual insurance. the suspect in the abduction of university of virginia student hannah graham today pleaded not guilty in a separate 2005 sexual assault case in northern virginia. cnn's brian todd was inside the courtroom and he's live outside the courthouse with the details. amazing scene inside there,

brian. what was it like? >> reporter: well, jim, this was the first time the judge in the fairfax case has seen jesse matthew in person. now, matthew seemed shy and hesitant in front of the judge, but he wasted no time addressing the charges against him. he walked out in a dark green jumpsuit, his dreadlocks in a ponytail. during his first personal appearance in a fairfax courtroom, jesse matthew was so subdued, he was at first inaudible. >> not guilty. >> what was that? sorry, i couldn't hear that. >> not guilty. >> reporter: judge dennis smith wanted to get matthew's formal plea to the charges. >> jesse leroy matthew jr. did feloniously, willfully, deliberately, intentionally and with premeditation, attempt to kill r.g. with the abduction with intent to defile? how do you plead to that charge? >> not guilty. >> reporter: matthew also pleads not guilty to charges of sexual assault and abduction in the 2005 fairfax case.

law enforcement officials say the then 26-year-old victim was grabbed as she returned home from a grocery store, dragged to an area behind a pool in a townhouse complex, raped and beaten almost to death. she was spared, officials say, only because the assailant was scared off by a passerby. prosecutor ray morrow says the victim, identified only as r.g., now lives in india, has small children, including a 6-month-old, and is disrupting all of that to come to fairfax and testify against jesse matthew. >> for us to step back into her life so many years later. i know that she's grateful, but again, i can't imagine what she's going through. but i'm just so pleased that she is cooperating, and she's been really a saint with me. >> reporter: matthew is a suspect in the disappearance of university of virginia student hannah graham, whose body was found outside charlottesville after a month-long search. he's charged with abduction in that case.

officials say the fairfax case is linked by dna to the 2009 disappearance of virginia tech student morgan harrington, whose body was found near uva. in the fairfax case, authorities say dna under the victim's fingernails matches jesse matthew's dna. one defense attorney says the jury will rely heavily on the dna evidence, but it's not iron-clad. >> it may be a degraded sample, it may be a mixture. it's always hard to tell just by hearing that it exists. that doesn't tell us everything. >> reporter: another challenge for the prosecution in fairfax, the ability of the victim to remember specific details of that night nine years ago. now, today, jesse matthew's lawyers did not ask for a mental health evaluation of him, despite saying at a hearing two weeks ago that they would request that. his defense attorney told me he is still discussing that possibility with his co-counsel. the judge has set a trial date of march 9th and has appointed judge david schell, who previously served in the fairfax

juvenile court system to oversee the trial. jim? >> all right, brian todd outside the courtroom. i want to go in depth with investigative journalist coy barefoot, cnn's legal analyst jeffrey toobin and a former fbi assistant director. this not guilty plea, was that at all a surprise to you? >> not really. it was a dramatic morning with a lot of developments, jim. and of course, to hear jesse matthew address the court for the first time and say not guilty in all three charges, in the abduction, in the rape and in the attempted capital murder. at this point, one way to read that -- a couple of ways. know first that he can change that plea to guilty right up until the moment before a jury would come back. so, that can always be changed. and at this point, from a defense perspective, in terms of strategy, it's just a smart thing to do. it gives you leverage in any future negotiations, should you approach the prosecution and

say, okay, we might change our plea, what will you give us? >> jeffrey toobin, do you agree? because if he pled guilty, he could have negotiating the sentencing, right? >> perhaps. this is a first appearance. almost nobody pleads guilty right away. if his dna is under her fingernails, he's not negotiating anything. he doesn't have any leverage. >> right. >> i mean, you know, plea negotiations are all about, you know, managing risk. there's no risk to the prosecution, so this guy, if that dna pans out that way. so, you know, why should the da negotiate with him? >> right, he's keeping his options open. tom fuentes in the 2005 case, does the prosecution need much evidence, if they have the dna as well as a living witness who said she would come back from india to testify in this case? do they have enough there? >> well, we don't know yet. and i think another reason for pleading not guilty is as they go forward preparing for the defense, the prosecution has to

give them everything they've got. then they'll know what kind of dna, how much of it, what the circumstances, was it really under the fingernails as it was said? they'll know everything the prosecution's going to present will have to be told to the defense. and then they can make their assessment of whether to try to bargain. >> and the criminal defense attorneys always want a delay. that is sort of criminal defense 101, slow the process down, let passions cool a little bit. the cases never get better with time. they often get worse. so, that's one thing the defense can do. >> sounds like it makes sense. coy, i wonder if i could ask you, because the judge, of course, will play a key role in this, what have you learned about the judge in this case? >> i think that was the most significant thing that happened this morning, jim, was that moment when we learned that judge david schell will be the judge to oversee this case, because that's what everyone was waiting to hear. for this reason. judges in virginia in these criminal cases, they follow sentencing guidelines. now, those are suggestive, but

everyone knows that certain judges tend to go along with the guidelines or above or below when it comes to sentencing. i checked with the sentencing commission in richmond, a terrific team there that helped me out with some research today, which i'm reporting here for the first time. judge schell has seen 475 criminal cases since he was appointed to the circuit court in january of 2008 by democratic governor tim kaine. in those cases, he has sentenced at or below the guidelines in 94% of his cases. so, if you're a defense attorney representing jesse matthew, that's good news, because you could plead guilty, throw jesse matthew on the mercy of the court. what if those sentencing guidelines come back with a suggestion of 15 to 20 years? he gets 20. he's out, a free man in 17 years, according to the historical trends of this particular judge. >> jeffrey toobin, you've been

in front of a lot of judges. does this sound like a soft judge to you? >> well, i think he's probably not the worst judge he could have gotten, but consider the magnitude of this crime. these judges deal with a wide variety of crimes. if it's proven that he dragged this woman into the bushes and raped her, i don't care -- >> and only stopped because someone stopped him. >> i don't care what his prior record is, no judge is going to look with any sort of sympathy. >> jeffrey toobin, coy fuentes, thank you very much. michael brown's parents return to testify to a united nations panel on the shooting of their son. they will find ferguson on edge, waiting for a grand jury report. people with type 2 diabetes

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after dumping heavy snow to the west, an arctic blast is bringing early winter weather to the eastern half of the country. let's go to jennifer gray in atlanta. do i have to take my winter doubt out? >> this weekend you'll need it. we have shattered records across the country this week and temperatures are still holding on below freezing across much of the country. 38 in kansas city. 29 in chicago. once we lose the daylight, temperature also plummet. minneapolis dipped below freezing on monday. for the next five days, we'll stay that way, barely getting above 20 degrees through wednesday, and it could possibly be the following week when

temperatures are above freezing. then another cold blast on the way. by the end of the weekend, by tuesday morning, temperatures in atlanta, 21 degrees. 20 chicago tuesday morning. 11 in minneapolis. so temperatures are going to stay very, very cold as we go through the next seven days, at least. look at the highs. in the 20s for minneapolis. chicago, 30 on saturday. 33 on sunday. even atlanta, your high temperature on tuesday at 37. low temperatures are even worse. of course, seeing temperatures in the single digits in denver and rapid city, in the teens across minneapolis, chicago. 18 degrees on tuesday morning. it is going to be very cold. but we may be warming up the week of thanksgiving. >> you know you're in trouble when you see that purple and light blue on the weather map. thank you very much. coming up, tension grows in

ferguson, missouri, ahead of the grand jury decision whether to charge a police officer in the death of an unarmed black teenager. and jake tapper will be here next in "the situation room." he has a new interview with the former navy s.e.a.l. who says he fired the shot that killed osama bin laden. you can't breathe through your nose suddenly, you're a mouth breather. a mouth breather! well, put on a breathe right strip and shut your mouth. cold medicines open your nose over time, but add a breathe right strip and pow, it opens your nose up to 38% more. so you can breathe and do the one thing you want to do, sleep. add breathe right to your cold medicine shut your mouth and sleep right. breathe right. and look for the calming scent of new breathe right lavender, in the sleep aisle. a wake-up call. but it's not happening out there. it's happening in here. [ sirens wailing ] inside of you. even if you're treating

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or you can call healthmarkets ... and let us do the legwork for you - with no cost or obligation. we'll search a variety of plans from nationally recognized companies to find the coverage that's the best fit for you ... at a price that fits your budget. and we'll do it at no charge to you. you can talk to us over the phone ... or meet with a local licensed representative in person. why pay a penny more than you have to for insurance policy. in the past 3 years, healthmarkets insurance agency has enrolled americans in more than 1.1 million insurance polices ... put our free service to work for you at no charge. call now and let healthmarkets find the right medicare plan for you - without cost or obligation. call this number. call now. happening now, bin laden's killer. the former navy s.e.a.l. that says he took out the world's most wanted terrorist is speaking out about the operation

and the fallout. why is he going public with the story now? cell phone spying. u.s. law enforcement reportedly using small planes to scan thousands of cell phones, possibly yours. why is so much data being collected and what's being done with it? fear in ferguson. the city, the region, the country. all bracing for a possible violent backlash as a grand jury decides where to charge a police officer in the shooting death of michael brown. how will the panel reach its conclusion? and stunning missteps. new details of secret service shortfalls. mistakes, blunders, all of which allowed a man with a knife to get in the white house. how could so many things go so wrong in one night. we want to welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. wolf blitzer is off. i'm jake tapper and you are in "the situation room." we're following multiple stories this hour, including new

revelations of the government spying on cell phones from planes. and new details about the blunders which secret service agents that resulted in a knife wielding man running deep inside the white house. we're also following developments in ferguson, missouri, waiting to learn whether officer darren wilson will be joined in the shooting death of michael brown. we have our correspondents and guests standing by to cover those stories and much more. but first, my interview with the remarkable former navy s.e.a.l. who says he fired the shot that killed osama bin laden. he's speaking out here. i sat down with him just a short time ago. before you walked into that room on the third floor, what went through your head if >> there was two of us left on the stairs going up. we knew we had to get up there because they were doing something, we assumed rigging explosives to blow themselves up. so when we went up, my thought wasn't oh, we're about to shoot

this guy and be heroes. my thought was, we're going to blow up, let's get it over with. he was not surrendering. he was sort of moving, and just based on the level of threat of him not surrendering and the likelihood of him having a vest, i shot him twice in the head. he fell in the floor and i shot him one more time. first, there was the i.d. of him and he's a threat and i had to shoot him. it wasn't the first time i had done that on a target before. i recognized the individual we were after, which was osama bin laden, and i engaged. it felt like that was the initial threat i had to take care of, and threats are just potential unknowns. it wasn't until the room was silent that it hit me. i had a moment of pause and i talked to a friend of mine who was in the room. he came up to me and i said hey,

what do we do now? he smiled and he goes, now we go find the computer. i said okay, i'm back, i'm back. that was quite a thing that just bape happened. then we took him to bagram. the president wanted to know everything that had gone on. they wanted to have the numbers right before it was reported and be 100% certain. once it was, we were standing there, watching a flat screen tv, watching the president address the nation and the world. >> so you were watching president obama address the nation standing feet away from bin laden's body? >> yes. i heard him say tonight i can report to the united states and the world that the united states conducted a mission to kill osama bin laden. i heard him say osama bin laden and i looked at osama bin laden. >> so many questions here. why can't he shut the hell up and be a quiet professional like

s.e.a.l.s are supposed to be? >> my response is, there are some things i'm not talking about. this is so important for the families and so important historically. different parts of the story were seen that i didn't see. i think it's important for this to get out there. >> the pentagon is, i'm sure, watching every word you're making public. are you concerned about a prosecution about them taking issue with you for violating, in their view, the nondisclosure agreement? >> that does concern me. if it comes up, i will address it. i think i did this in a way that doesn't violate any rules. >> do you think you're a hero? >> i think i was part of a team that was pull of heroes. >> what did you tell your family if >> i called them and i said goodbye and thanks for everything, sort of. i called my father last. it was just -- they could tell something was weird.

i didn't tell them i was going overseas. i called them at some point and i knew they would find out in a matter of hours. because what we were going to do was going to end a number of ways. >> you had messages for your kids? >> i was writing letters. we're talking about -- we know we're going to be bed. it was just stuff i couldn't give the letters to one of my brothers, because they were going to be 2ke8d wigo ing to be dead with me. >> it's an honor to meet you. let's dig deep we are lieutenant colonel james reese and former cia operative phil mudd. phil, your reaction to the interview? >> i guess the first reaction i have, as a former cia official, for the rest of my life, i have

to go through nondisclosure process with the cia when i write anything. so i looked at what he said and went through a filter of not whether it was important or interesting but whether i thought he was putting himself in jeopardy with the pentagon. i don't think he did for a specific reason. my definition of a security breach is when you give the adversary an advantage. there may be debates within the special forces community about whether what he did was appropriate or whether it violated a code of honor. that is a separate question. the question i have, whether he told anything to al qaeda that would help them. i don't think they did. >> there are members of the military, especially officers, who do not think that rob o'neil should be talking. some of his defenders say hey, secretary panetta wrote a book, the obama administration cooperated with the film "zero dark thirty." why should. the guy that pulled the trigger

get a moment in the sun? >> i agree, there is a double standard unfortunately. and i know. i retired from the delta force, sat sad by said with s.e.a.l. team 6 guys most of my military career. but what we have to realize at that level is there's a double standard and that's the bottom line. i think phil hit it on the mark. he absolutely says, i agree with him. i think what a lot of these guys have to do is, they have to go through the process themselves. i think what the d.o.d. needs to do, we need a better policy. when these operations are going on, we plan for everything, but we have to plan for a public relations aspect and how we're going to do that and decide who is going to talk and make that part of the plan. >> let's turn to some other news. phil, i want to turn to a big development in the fight against isis. u.s. officials believe isis and

al qaeda's affiliate have been cooperating to fight the moderate rebel factions that the u.s. is helping. this seems rather significant, phil. >> sort of. but i would say let's hold on for a minute. i want to watch this movie for a while. you can see what's going on here. we start bombing isis and they say, let's stop fighting each other, there's a bigger threat here, that's the americans. so let's join together. the problem with this story is that the leadership of these organizations despises each other. i'm not sure how much of this is operationally significant, probably some. i think with the leaders they have now, unless they die, there's still going to be some animosity between these groups. >> lieutenant colonel reese, this news comes as we're learning the white house is recalibrating its strategy in syria, to include a political element, one that would aspirationally remove bashar al

assad from power. do you have any concerns that would create a power vacuum or it would be easier for isis to claim power in syria? >> jake, the second night of the bombings right on cnn tonight, we talked about we thought the center of gravity on this whole issue was bashar assad. we have to have some type of policy and figure a way to get out of there. yes, there will be a sucking sound if we drop a bomb on assad tonight, there will be a huge sucking sound coming out of syria. but we have done this before. we have the ability and the history to bring different governments together, and help them figure out, because this is their issue. this is an arab issue on that side of the world, and we should be just coaching and teaching and mentoring them how to fix this problem. >> phil, isis released an audio message that claims to feature a

message from the group's leader. there are a lot of questions right now whether el baghdadi was hit and wounded in an air strike or killed. do you think this audio message establishes definitively that he is alive? >> i suspect he was alive. as an intelligence professional, one of the rules you can take away is the longer you don't hear that he's dead, because somebody is going to leak it. somebody is going to say hey, our leader is gone. the more likely it is that he's alive. i think he might have been wounded but i don't think he's dead. interesting thing about this tape, jake, i don't think this tape is a message of strength. it has not been a good month for ice els isis. i think he's trying to get out and persuade people is isis is what it was in the summer, when it had the element of surprise and had the iraqi security forces on their heels. the iraqis are now fighting

harder. he's saying, don't worry, i'm still here. >> lieutenant colonel, what is your take on this audiotape from isis? >> yeah, i agree with phil 100%. through our history now, doing this for 14 years. what i do believe is he's been injured. the reason i say this, they're not showing him. so i think they put an audiotape out there to let his people know, hey, i'm out here, don't panic. but like phil said, this has been a rough third quarter for isis, to they're trying to gain their strength back. i think he was injured on that last hit. >> thank you both so much. still ahead, a secret u.s. government program that reportedly uses small planes to spy on cell phones here in the united states. plus, the growing tension in ferguson, missouri as a grand jury decides where to charge the police officer who shot and killed michael brown.

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we're learning new details of a secret government spy program that reportedly uses small planes to spy on cell phones. >> we know that law enforcement has used controversial techniques for years. now we're learning a u.s. marshal service uses equipment that has the capability to pull cell phone data from an entire city. the u.s. marshal service puts special devices on small planes as a way to locate criminals. these devices dubbed dirt boxes, are supposed to trick cell

phones into thinking it's a cell tower. >> the system is designed to pick up a ton of data, because it's looking a needle in a hey stack. but to find that needle, it has to look at every other piece of hay in that stack. >> reporter: it scans thousands of phones to find a suspect's location. >> the advantage over the drone, airplane or helicopter, they can just search a much larger area, much faster and get information about a huge number of innocent people. >> reporter: the device is similar to this simulator known as a sting ray. government officials say it's intended to be used with a defined legally authorized purpose in serious violent crimes. it was used in the capture of el chappo guzman, the former head of a drug cartel and one of the most wanted men in the world.

st >> this is military technology designed for special forces that has trickled down to law enforcement. >> reporter: the state department would not confirm the existence of the technology, but says any techniques the marshal service uses are for the apprehension of wanted individuals. and the department of justice official also says the marshal service does not maintain any databases for the purposes of retaining cell phone information of the general public. though it's unclear how quickly their data is deleted. >> thank you so much. let's get more on this with evan perez, jeffrey toobin, and tom fuentes, former fbi assistant director. jeff, is this legal? >> it almost certainly is. remember, from the edward snowden revelations, the supreme

court has said you and i don't have an expectation of privacy in the numbers we dial. snowden disclosed when they intercept what anyone is saying, they are disclosing what numbers are being dialed and phones are being used. as far as i'm aware, that is legal. >> evan, do we know how it's being used, is there any delineation of when it can be used and when it can't? >> they're looking for people like guzman, people who are serious criminals, felons on the run. as jeffrey points out, this is not something that is gathering the communications of these people. but the problem, is and why people get scared is that in trying to find this needle in the hay stack, they are scooping

up a lot of data on other people and the potential for abuse is there. the question is, how do you make sure the data is removed from the government system so that it's not abused. that's the big question. >> tom, you think that maybe we're making too big a deal out of the potential for abuse. you think this is a good program? >> i think it's been mischaracterized and exaggerated what this program is doing. when they're up there, they're looking for a bad guy's phone number and seeing if it's transmitting. if they find that, they know where that person is. so it's a locating device. the 50,000 other phone calls that are streaming past them are just ignored. so they're not only not intercepted, which for sure none of them are, but they're not kept because there's no useful data in it. they're looking for specific people that's transmitting a specific number. >> "the wall street journal" article characterized it as snagging a large number of

americans. that's absurd. >> but these phone numbers are being vacuumed up. >> but it's worthless. it's telling the airplane that that phone is walking down the street down pennsylvania avenue in washington, d.c. by the time anybody would -- why would they look at all the people in washington, d.c. walking around? if they don't find the one person they want -- >> i think most people know by now, it's been in movies, it's not a big secret, you can locate a cell phone as it's being used. the only difference is it's being done with a plane. >> they already have these devices called sting rays that cops drive around in vans trying

to triagulate your process. >> in the boston bombing marathon victim he ran across the street and said, they stole my car. the phone in his car was being tracked. >> there's no potential to listen in on these calls? >> none at all. >> you were talking about the potential for abuse. what is there? >> civil libertarians point out, and the government is secretive about this stuff. they even dry to destroy the records when they lend it out to police departments. so the government doesn't even try to tell people when it's being used in these cases. that's what gives people their fear. >> the data doesn't go away.

it's not like while they're looking for calls, all the other numbers go away. you say they're worthless, but they night not be, because maybe somebody is looking for another number and they can access that database. >> you always have to be suspicious when there is a large quantity of data sitting in the government's hands, because people could start to rummage through it for other purposes. as far as we're aware, there's been no accusation that was done in this circumstance. >> all that data would tell you is, that phone was at that location. that's it. so that's no different with what evan was mentioning earlier. if you have video coverage, how long is that kept? somebody goes into a convenient store, where they had video of that guy trying to use the

victim's atm card, everybody complaints about all the video cameras. she would be dead without that technology. >> you have to get a court order for it? >> no. >> the government tries to say in most cases they need a search warrant because you're looking for specific people. the problem is when they use it for wider searches. and how they destroy that data, because they do say they destroy it regularly, but the problem is, how long is that? we don't know a lot about this, because the government is so secretive about it. >> one of the reasons being secretive, they don't want guys like guzman that are billionaires -- they know they're using it, but they don't want him to know the technology to learn how to defeat the specific machinery. >> we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much.

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a rally is planned at the st. louis airport at the top of the hour for the parents of

michael brown. they're returning to missouri from switzerland where they testified to the united nations about the police shooting death of their son. we are awaiting the grand jury report on brown's death that could come along any day now, with the decision about whether or not they are going to charge the officer who shot michael brown. preparations are in place in ferguson and beyond for a possible violent backlash. let's get more with cnn anchor don lemon, john gaskin, and jeffrey toobin. john, what are you hearing about the timing of when a grand jury announcement might come? >> well, jake, it could come any day now. everyone is waiting on pins and needles, and we're just waiting on when bob mccullough will make the announcement on what the grand jury's decision will be. we're waiting every hour, because it could come any time

now. but i don't think it will come this weekend, it could, but we're just waiting. as we wait, ferguson is very calm. st. louis is very calm. but people are also planning what the reaction will be, what their efforts will be around direct action and protesting, especially within the communities, such as ferguson and the shaw neighborhood in south st. louis where vender myers was killed. so there will be a lot of reaction to the decision. >> don, we've spent a lot of time in ferguson. there's a lot of tension between law enforcement and many memberimembers of the community. are there any individuals or agencies in the greater ferguson area that could seven as a mediator between police and the community? >> could is one thing, yes. but anyone doing it? no. i would think the best organization to probably be someone from one of the churches, some of the clergy

members could help out. a lot of the protesters are younger people. so it would be great if some of the activists who came in around the country, some people call them outsiders, if they could serve as a mediator, but the consensus is they're too one sided and too adamant about the guilt of the officer, right, and not working with the other side. the best person who is doing it now is captain ron johnson. it's tough to do, though, when you are a member of the police department. they brought him in, jake, because he's from the community, and he's also -- so he knows the community, but he's also a police officer. >> john, are there any good mediators on the ground? >> i think don is right. you've got many of the older people that are very level he would -- level headed, that have connections with law enforcement and the elected officials that can give many of the young people an opportunity to have a

seat at the table and have dialogue about that. i think don is exactly right. you have many young people that are very upset and very passionate about this. this has been a very passionate driven issue now. i think probably one of the best people to do that would be somebody like captain ron johnson, reaching out through people like antonio french, the alderman from that area. i think working with people like that, that have a connection with protesters and organizers, i think they can make some serious headway. but it will take effort. >> jeffrey toobin, the grand jury heard testimony from almost everyone involved in the shooting, testified before the group in september without an attorney. the pathologist hired by michael brown's family testified yesterday for multiple hours. what is the holdup, do you think? >> this is a very weird way to conduct a grand jury investigation. most times prosecutors want i

want an indictment, i'm going to present the minimum amount of testimony i need. this is simply throwing every single piece of evidence before the grand jury, and it is certainly a way, and we don't want to prejudge this, for a prosecutor to throw up his hands and say, it's not my responsibility, it's the grand jury's responsibility. that's not how it works in the real world usually. usually prosecutors make up their minds, and use the grand jury to work their will. if he comes back and says, well, i had nothing to do with it, it was the grand jury's decision, that will be a somewhat misleading statement. this is not the ordinary way a grand jury is being used. >> but it's obviously a very politically charged case. i suppose he's trying to figure out a way he can negotiate making sure that everybody believes that all the evidence was provided, even if an

indictment does not come down. >> exactly. he can say, look, the grand jury heard all the evidence. >> even this hired pathologist from the brown family. >> correct. but the fact remains, grand juries, by and large, do the will of the prosecutor. and if there's no indictment, you can be pretty sure that means the prosecutor didn't want one. and if there is an indictment, it means the prosecutor does want one. they are a convenient way to pass the buck, these grand juries for prosecutors. but by and large, these are decisions made -- >> jeffrey, couldn't it be the prosecutor didn't have any choice, that the evidence will point to one direction or the other? everybody has been jumping to such conclusion on this. >> absolutely. and that's fully appropriate. if the evidence doesn't support an indictment. all i'm saying, that decision is really the prosecutor 's, not te grand jury. >> we're awaiting word from

michael brown's parents, and we will bring that to you live. i want to play a clip of the st. louis county police chief from an interview with local station responding to the criticism from michael brown's family's lawyers, that the missouri governor should specified that violence from police will not be tolerated as well as if protests get heated again. here's what he said. >> i would think that some of this is an overreaction. take a look at the professionalism and the bearing that these police officers represented by all agencies have demonstrated. i'm proud of what they're doing. i just hope they can continue to allow people to have a voice but to be as safe as we can doing that. >> john gaskin, i want to get your response to this, because -- >> jake, the premise of that is not true. jay nixon did talk about that in the press conference. he said, number one, there should not be violence. he said he would also look at

violence on the police side. i don't think the premise of that is correct. i remember that the governor did talk about that. listen, i am no fan of the way the governor handled this, but the governor did talk about the police. >> john gaskin, i want to get your reaction to criticism that the governor of missouri was too specific in criticizing the community of ferguson and not equal in his criticism because obviously the police have been criticized, as well. >> i do agree with don to some extent. yes, governor nixon did speak regarding holding law enforcement accountable and keeping a very close eye on what their tactics will be. but the reaction from many people in the community is there was a lot of focus put on the protesters. as we know recently, the protests from protesters had

been peaceful and calm. in the very beginning, you had many people that are very afraid of what kind of weapons and equipment will be used on protesters, especially peaceful protesters, within the community. many people are fearing, you know, what kind of heavy artillery will be used. will we see armored trucks again? will we see snipers? that is a major concern and i think they should have that concern, especially from what we saw in august. >> thank you so much. just ahead, how the secret service dropped the ball on the night a man with a knife ran inside the white house. and the battle over immigration reform. can the republicans stop president obama from acting alone?

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you might call it a comedy of errors if the stakes were not so incredibly high. it seems everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong the night that a knife wielding man jumped white house fence and ran inside the executive mansion. much of the blame appears to lie solely with the secret service. cnn white house correspondent michelle cosinski has new details. >> this is just a brief summary. but it is crammed full of a perfect storm, a tragic comedy

of shortfalls and mistakes that all happened on this one night in september. while omar gonzalez made historic fence jump and run across the white house lawn, the scene around him was confuse and cluelessness. the big problems, communications, officers on the radio all at once. and a wrong setting on the radios prevented the command center from telling everyone what was going on. then the individual issues. the canine handler on his personal cell phone, not listening to his radio. he didn't know there was anything wrong until he saw an officer run past his van. but even the plants made for trouble that night. the officers lost him in the bushes. they didn't think it was possible for anyone to run through them. but he did. one officer assumed the white house doors were locked. they weren't.

and the emergency response team, because they weren't trained on it, were unfamiliar with the layout of the white house. the chairman of the house homeland security committee responded to all this. >> their core mission is to protect the president of the united states. that's where i think they're failing right now. it's unacceptable, not only to congress but to the american people. >> reporter: that list of mishaps just keeps going. inside the white house, the emergency alert alarm had been muted. the officer at the door tried to stop gonzalez several times as he barged in. but he was bigger than she was and it didn't work. she reached for her baton but grabbed her flashlight, giving this all a sad keystone cops aspect. >> have you ever heard of these guys? this is -- it's not very costly. you can subscribe, but that can be installed. >> reporter: but at the heart of a lot of these embarrassments

seemed to be the institutional problems that that night shown a big spotlight on. inadequate staffing, training and sharg of information. you read through this and it reinforces the feeling that thank goodness he didn't have a gun. but at least this triggered a deep look inside what needs to be changed and the secret service says it is working on that. jake? >> michelle, thank you so much. just ahead, the looming political war over immigration reform. the stakes, the threats, the potential fallout. but first, this impact your world. >> my name is mike scotty. i'm a former marine who bought as part of the initial invasion of iraq in 2003. i just happened to have a video camera with me and i videotaped what was going on. the car ran the roadblock. the marines had no choice but to light it up.

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facing the reality of a republican-controlled congress, president obama said he will go it alone on immigration if he has to. his opponents are determined to stop him. how far will they go. let's turn to dana bash. this is going to get nasty.

>> that is right, jake. it already is. republicans on capitol hill described to me this way. they believe the expanded house republican membership believes they were elected to be a check on an unpopular president. so it is a gop mandate to push back on the president changing immigration laws but they are just not sure the way to go about it. presidential fighting words for republicans on immigration, from his trip half-way around the world in asia,. >> i would use all of the lawful authority to try to make the system better. >> that is going around congress and issuing an executive order allowing millions of undocumented immigrants to stay legally. republicans are united in posing the move, calling it a declaration of political war. >> there are a lot of people on our side thinking he is trying to bait us into some type of fight. >> are you going to take the

bait? >> are we going to fight it? yeah. >> but there is no way to know how to fight it. and some want to use the constitutional weapon, to cut funding. >> using things like the power of the purse. >> but many are resisting, since the last time they used government funding to stop an obama strategy, it caused a shutdown. >> it certainly didn't work with obama care. >> and another idea, take the president to court for executive over-reach. >> we should engage in litigation. >> but proving it is tough. republicans are already trying to sue the president on obama care and having trouble even finding legal counsel to push it. >> this president is clearly out of bounds on this issue. >> and the open question is how did it come to this? why haven't house republicans tackled illegal immigration legislatively.

>> it hasn't happened in the six years you've been in charge? >> maybe the time is right. >> election polls show a majority in favor of some legal status for undocumented immigrants, but most house republicans face a different dynamic, representing conservative districts. in fact three quarters of house republican districts have latino voting populations of less than 10%. >> and the thing to keep in mind is there is a healthy group of republicans, even those without latino populations who do want to find compromise in immigration. i talked to many today that they felt it was finally the chance to tell fellow republicans to come along but the hope of that will be blown up by any executive order. >> and let's bring in ron brownstein, editor of the international journal. ron, is there going to be a government shut down? >> boy, this is two things colliding. they do not want to do a

government shut down. they are trying to use any means necessary to stop. this and for the president, i think the die is cast. he has to do this. he has promised it to a core democratic constituency and they need them to turn out in 2016 and something he believes is important and he analyzes that he is unlikely to reach an agreement with republican congress, despite what some of the members said to you. every newly elected republican senator who was -- not a single one of them endorsed a path to citizenship. republicans feel enormous pressure from the base to fight this but they face the reality, that the hispanic vote is growing and if they continue to struggle to the extent they did in 2012, that will cause problems. >> and give me the odds? 50/50? >> i agree. i believe it is less than 50/50. there was one republican member

who high fived a governor because they shut the government town. >> i believe the newly elected senator from colorado said it would not be mature. >> and they are looking toward 2016 as well. the reality is they are shutting down the government to prevent legal status. not only the shut down, but the statement. >> the only thing i will say to contradict what i just said about the fact that i don't think it is possible, is that we all thought republicans would suffer from the shut down. and what happened? they don't have a lot of in sentive for not doing it politically. >> and can i speak to another point. this is a good example of how the choices in the republican congress will shape the candidates in 2016. if the republicans go to the mattress to try to stop this, i think every republican presidential candidate will say the first thing they will do is

repeal president obama's executive amnesty and once they do that, whatever else they have to do with immigration, they will face an uphill push with hispanic voters. >> and jonathan gruber, one of the men telling classrooms, because the american people are so stupid, in his view, they were hood-winked in this bill, which he thinks is a good thing and they were able to misrepresent parts of it to get it to become law. ron, do you think this actually could affect the supreme court pending decision on obama care? could it affect the waters at all? >> you know, i think the supreme court decision is operating at a higher altitude than this. i think this provides more oxygen for those in the republican party who want to continue pushing for repeal. i think this changes the dynamic inside of the gop and congress and pushes them toward a more aggressive stance.

and something else might have done that, but this is certainly pretty high octane on that front. >> and dana the one i broke today was him talking about how the cadillac tax was represented to the american people and it is attacks on the people and not the insurance companies an b, it will affect all employer based programs, not just the high end ones. are democrats or republicans saying anything about this to you? >> democrats are very quick to say i don't think the voters are stupid. that was the one part that resonated the most. the specifics are very important, like you talked about the cadillac plans, but when you come down to it, if you focus on the academics of what he said, it is true that in every bit of legislation that they write on capitol hill, you know this, they write it in a way so it has a chance of surviving any kind of legal challenge. and so the question of whether it is a tax or not a tax, which is at the core of what he said, that is debatable. the whole issue politically is calling the american people

stupid. don't do it. >> i agree. >> an apology. 10 million people already in it. that is a big weight on the other side. >> you can follow us on twitter. join us monday in "the situation room." thank you very much for watching. i'm jake tapper in "the situation room." ebof starts now. "outfront" tonight, ferguson on edge. when the grand jury speaks, will ferguson streets erupt. disturbing new details on how the world's most dangerous weapons are decaying. and the american tv dad, allegations for bill cosby getting new life through old media. can his reputation survive? let's go "outfront." good evening. i'm don lemon in for erin burnett. "outfront" tonight, ferguson on the brink. tonit