>> thank you for watching state of the union. i'm jim sciutto in washington. watch president obama's state of the union address at 7:p.m. eastern. freed zakaria gps starts right now. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm freed zakieyachkariazakaria. we'll begin today's show with questions from paris, questions on the minds of all of us. how in the world do we protect against the next of these attacks. is there any way to thwart this kind of terrorism? i'll have an exclusive conversation with leon pan onon panetta, former cia director, former secretary of defense.

also has europe been flooded with masses of hate-filled muslims? if you listen to the airwaves this week. >> prayer runs in just about every hotels. >> the answer was yes. i'll introduce to you a man who disagrees and says he has the numbers to prove it. and the economy. in 2015 who will be the winners and losers? what do we need to watch out for? i'll tell you. then from paris to new york's finest an important question should police focus on minor quality of life arrests, littering, loitering and the like or just focus on terror and murder and major crimes? we'll have a debate on the famous broken windows theory of policing with nathan gladwell. but first here is my take.

the paris terror attacks were barbaric but also startling leaving many to ask, what could be done to prevent this kind of terrorism in the future. well one man has a clear answer. that attack you saw in paris, you'll see an attack in the united states. senator john mccain told "new york times." to elaborate on how to stop this from happening, he explained to the "times" and cnn that it would require a more aggressive military strategy across greater middle east with no-fly zone and ground troops in syria and more troops in iraq and afghanistan. this theory was sometimes described during the iraq war as quote, we fight them there so we don't have to fight them here. unquote it was wrong then and it's wrong now. other ol politicians have noted many jihadists have connections to badlands of middle east syria, where collapsed, war

under way, islamic terror groups staked out safe havens. this is blowback from chaos in syria. it has become convention at wisdom that if only washington had gotten more involved earlier, we would be safer. but what do the jihadis themselves say. cnn reports in a court adoption one of the paris terrorists made clear the source of his radicalization. quote, i was ready to go and die in battle he said. i got this idea when i saw the injustices shown on television on what was going on over there in iraq. i'm speaking about the torture that the americans have inflicted on iraquis, end quote. so in the actual case of the french terrorist, it was american intervention in the middle east that caused him to become a jihadi. more intervention would somehow have the opposite effects?

scholars have analyzed all cases of suicide bombings from 1980 to 2009 and concluded the vast majority of the terrorists bin these attacks were acting in response to american intervention and involvement in the middle east rather than out of a religious or ideological motivation. in their book cutting the fuse they note that the only spectacular western plots after 9/11 the madrid and london bombings were quote, specifically inspired by invasion of iraq end quote. let's review the record in vegas in 1990s produced radicalism as iraq and afghanistan in zero2000 partners drone strikes in pakistan and yemen, as did the surge in afghanistan as did the withdrawal of troops from that country. it seems that no matter what the united states has done over the last two decades, islamic

radicalism has been on the rise often directed against america and its western allies and it has found a few alienated young men to then act on these ugly ideas. to argue that the only way to stop terrorism at home is for the united states to intervene militarily and stabilize many unstable parts of the middle east is to commit washington to a fool's errand for decades. the scholar pointed out before syria washington had already launched interventions in 13 countries in the islamic world since 1980. will one more really do the trick? for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started.

you've heard my take on what will not thwart the terror threat now let's hear a most expert opinion on what will. leon panetta has been many things in many administrations but the most pertinent today is two plus years as director of central intelligence from february 2009 to june 2011. he talked to me exclusively earlier this week. i was in tulsa, oklahoma, and he was at the panetta institute near monterey bay. secretary panetta, thanks for joining us. >> nice to be with you, fareed. >> when you first heard about these attacks, what was your thought? >> i think what we've seen happening over the last few weeks, between what happened in ottawa what's happened in paris and now what's happened in belgium is that we're entering a new and perhaps more dangerous chapter in the war on terrorism.

you've got terrorists coming at us from a lot of different directions, from isis boca haram, al shabab aqap other elements of al qaeda. they are recruiting like crazy from these various wars in syria and iraq and yemen. and they seem to be involved in more planning and more weapons in terms of the types of attacks that they are working on. so i think it's pretty clear from what we're seeing that we are entering a more threatening and more dangerous period in this war on terrorism. >> from the point of view of policing looking at it from a city like new york or washington or london or paris's perspective, what can you do? these are locals. they often have local passports and they seem to have radicalized themselves in

certain ways. they have gotten a bit of training. how do you deal with this kind of threat? >> you have to be very aggressive in confronting this more dangerous threat in terms of terrorism. you have to do it with increasing our basic intelligence because obviously whether it's human intelligence or technical intelligence getting the right intelligence gives you at least a chance to avoid these kinds of attacks. secondly i think we have to continue to stress our counter-terrorism operations both our intelligence operations our special forces operations to be able to use our capabilities to target their leadership and their command and control. and thirdly, you've got to build partnerships with the countries abroad that are confronting terrorism. we've got to be able to share intelligence share operations and be able to work together to

go after this broad array of threats, because these individuals as they come back -- i think we're probably in a pretty good position with our watch list and with our defenses that have been set up to be able to check them. but the problem is in europe that there frankly is a greater capability to be able to move from country to country without being detected. somehow working with other countries we've got to be able to share intelligence and improve our capability to track these foreign nationals that in one way or another are coming back to these countries and trying to conduct these attacks. >> what was your sense of the quality of french intelligence? i mean one often hears that not only are they pretty good but pretty aggressive. would that be your sense? >> well there's no question that i think the failure to be

able to have prevented the attack that took place in paris was an intelligence failure. i know they had these individuals on watch lists. i know that in some ways they were tracking them but because of priorities or because of resources, obviously, they were not aware that these attacks were going to be conducted. i do believe, and certainly my dealings with the french that they have good capabilities in terms of their intelligence they have good capabilities in terms of their law enforcement to be able to go after these individuals. so i believe that there is a good opportunity here to learn from the mistakes that have been made and try to improve our intelligence gathering capability and intelligence sharing capability to make sure that we try to get ahead of

these kinds of attacks. >> there are a lot of people who feel that the united states does not face quite the same danger. partly because, as you say, we've got oceans and watch lists but also because muslim population in the united states is much more thoroughly assimilated than in europe. would you agree with that? >> i think obviously since 9/11 we have done a very good job of being able to improve our intelligence gathering capabilities our law enforcement capabilities our intelligence in terms of being able to track pick threats that are out there. clearly our muslim population has the opportunity to become citizens in this country, to integrate more fully into our society. that gives us an advantage. but having said that the reality is that when these

foreign nationals are able to come back into our country, and there are thousands of these nationals that are overseas in syria, iraq yemen, i think it still represents a real danger in terms of the united states. i don't think we can take anything for granted. i think we are dealing with a much more aggressive form of terrorism coming at us in a number of different directions, as i said. the united states ought to continue to become very vinlggilant and aggressive in going after this terrorism. >> would you expand no fly list? would you put in place procedures for even more intrusive intelligence intelligence gathering? >> you know one thing i learned as cia director is that you can always improve what you're doing in terms of being able to

develop not only the list but develop the intelligence that is needed in order to make sure that we're able to track these individuals. i mean we do have the watch list. we have pretty good security with regards to those coming into this country. i think we have a good capability there. the problem is in dealing with those in the various european areas where there is frankly less aggressiveness going after these individuals when they return. so the real challenge here is going to be for the united states to work very closely with our counter-parts in europe to make sure these watch lists are shared that we are working together to make sure these individuals are being trapped when they try to come back to the various countries and that we work together operationally to be able to go after them once

that happens. so there is room for a great deal of improvement here in order to make sure that we're at the top of our game in terms of trying to protect our country. >> but you're saying that the french and i've heard the germans are really to put it bluntly, too soft on these potential terrorists. >> i think that the european countries, particularly in light of the attacks that we've seen understand that it is extremely important for them to work together to try to provide good intelligence good security good defenses here to try to deal with these threats. we cannot do this alone. the united states can't do this alone. we've got to be working with our partners both in europe and frankly the intelligence

services in germany and france and britain in other countries, they are very capable. we've worked closely together share intelligence together and i'm sure we're continuing to do that. we also have to work with moderate arab countries as well. countries like saudi arabia and uae, jordan others that maintain a good intelligence. egypt. the ability for those countries to work together with the intelligence operations in the united states and in these other countries. if you can form that kind of strong coalition, you can really develop the kind of defense capability we need if we're going to confront this myriad threat we're facing now. >> when we come back i'm going to ask leon panetta much more about the paris attacks and aftermath. i'm going to ask him whether president obama should have gone to that rally.

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we are back with leon panetta, former secretary of defense, former director of cia. secretary panetta, a lot of people have criticized president obama for not attending that paris rally. what do you think was going on? how did they make that mistake? >> well fareed to the credit of the white house, they admitted they made a mistake. it was a mistake. we missed an opportunity to show solidarity with leadership in the world that is confronting this terrorism threat that we all face. it was a missed opportunity we should have had. if not the president, certainly vice president or secretary of state should have attended. as far as what went on in the white house, all i can say is when i was chief of staff, the national security adviser and the chief of staff usually presented these kinds of issues directly to the president and the president then made the

ultimate decision as to what happened. whether or not that happened here i just don't know. >> president obama has himself said he spends a lot of time trying to get the policy right but sometimes doesn't think enough about the optics. do you think this was one of those cases? >> well, you know, as we all know the presidency is not just about policy and substance, it's also about the optics of leadership all of those are part of what makes the president able to provide the kind of leadership that's necessary. this president, certainly during the time i was there, was fully committed to supporting the war against terrorism. he supported what we were doing at the cia and supported what we were doing at the defense department. so he clearly understands the nature of the threat. i think it's really important that the president working with other countries, working in

solidarity with other countries, provide a common front that makes very clear to the terrorist threat that we're dealing with that they are not going to succeed. we will ultimately achieve the kind of victory we have to achieve with regards to this war on terrorism. >> it sounds like secretary panetta, you are more worried based on what has happened over the last few weeks and particularly in paris, and you feel that this could happen in new york. this could happen in many many places in the world. >> i don't think there's any question. i think what we're seeing as i said is a much more aggressive chapter and a much more dangerous chapter in terms of the war on terrorism. what has happened in paris, what happened in ottawa what has happened in belgium is something

we need to understand that these terrorist are now engaged in a much more aggressive effort based on their recruiting based on what's happening in syria and iraq and yemen, they are engaged in a much more aggressive effort to conduct violence not only in europe. but i think it's a matter of time before they direct it at the united states as well. this is a real threat and we've got to be prepared to confront that. >> leon pant onon onon pantettapanetta, a pleasure to have you on. >> thanks fareed. >> we'll gaze into the future and look at economic outlook for 2015. is there good news or bad news? when we come back. new ensure active heart health supports your heart and body so you stay active and strong. ensure, take life in. ♪♪ ♪♪

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>> now for what in the world segment. this time of year many in the financial industry are making forecasts about the year ahead. we thought we would use some of these predictions, ideas and alarms combined with our own two cents worth and give you gps road map for 2015. the first big question will the world experience another global recession? believe it or not, it's possible. maybe more than you might think. morgan stanley reminded us recently on tv in india in 2014

the world was perilously close to recession. 2% growth is better than mark and the world grew only 2.6%. what's more he points out global recessions happen pretty regularly. there was the recession in the early 1980s, two recessions in the 1990s, dot-com in the the early 2000s and great financial which began about seven years ago. we're about due for one. the catalyst could be china, which contributes a larger share of growth to the global economy than any other country. in 1994 it represented only 8% of global growth compared to u.s. at 33% and european union at 26% according to morgan stanley. in 2014 china contributed 38% of global growth compared to 20% from the u.s. and just 13% from

the european union. since china is already slowing down this is not a happy thought. that leads to question number two. which nations will be winners in 2015 and which will be losers? the u.s. is looking good. one of the om bright spots among the world's big economies. price waterhouse cooper predicts faster economic growth than any year since 2005 at over 3% thanks to a continuing fall in unemployment. india also looks promising thanks to its reform minded prime minister. 2015 could be the year india turns the corner. says pricewaterhousecoopers predicting growth rate that could rival china. indonesia looking good. like india, they have a big population of consumers. so even if slow economies in other parts of the world keep export profits down people will still buy things at home. then you've got losers.

experts say europe will lag behind without needed reforms. japan is still in a bind despite economics. the real losers, of course are the big oil producers, especially those with large populations, venezuela, iran nigeria and russia. those countries need their oil profits to give subsidies to their people. when you have over 140 million people as russia does it gets expensive. things could get ugly in some of these places if and when cash runs low. that brings us to our last question. the big wild card. will the price of oil continue to stay proceed? that could make a huge difference for everyone. potentially growing the global economy by nearly a full percentage point according to imf. much will depend on whether opec decides to cut its production. but persistent low oil prices can signal weak demands, and

that can be a bad sign for everyone. perhaps a leading indicator of that next global recession. be careful what you wish for. next on gps, are muslims taking over europe? that's what some would have you believe. we will do a reality check. (woman) the constipation and belly pain feel tight like a vise. how can i ease this pain? (man) when i can't go, it's like rocks piling up. i wish i could find some relief. (announcer) ask your doctor about linzess-- a once-daily capsule for adults

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for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. a refrain emerging both in europe and united states that is perhaps, exemplified by

something said this week on another cable news channel. >> not just france but all of europe. there's been a major influx immigration, people from muslim countries. they have not simulated. they have separated. they have no-go zones. if you're non-muslim you're not allowed. not police not even fire department if there's a fire. courts have been allowed to be established. prayer rugs in just about every hotel. >> is sean hannity right? has there been a major influx of muslims? are they not assimilating? are there prayer rugs in just about every hotel? my next guest says don't believe it. doug saunders author of "the myth of the muslim tide." doug first, can i ask you why did you write this book? >> i'm a nonreligious person who lived in europe for quite

sometime. i myself had worries after september 11th attacks about my neighborhoods from pakistan turkey north africa. did they have some association with beliefs and practices with extremist things happening in the cities i've lived in. i set out to research it. i assembled a team of researchers to look at muslim minorities in europe and north america, how they are integrating into the population what their beliefs are, what their practices are and how they compared to other religious minorities that have moved into europe and north america over the past century. >> so let's go through some of the claims one by one. so muslims are swarming in. what are you able to find out about the claims europe is going to become almost muslim majority in some decades or this wave of immigration is sort of overwhelming europe. >> the facts are solid, muslim

minorities have grown in the past 20 years, places like france in the last 50 years. france has largest numbers where they have almost 8% of the population who are muslim. in other european countries it's generally between 1 or 4 and 5%. at most in a couple countries in europe muslims could number around 10% of the populate within next 20 or 30 years but likely to peak at that. in no country in europe is there any chance of muslims becoming a majority or even the largest minority except a couple countries where they might become second largest where they aren't religious. the idea of population takeover it's simply mathematically impossible. >> what about the argument this is a familiar argument about muslims in general. what about the argument these immigrants are basically more loyal to their countries of origin than they are to the

countries they settle down in. >> this has been very well measured. what's interesting is even some of the muslim populations not integrating well in terms of things like their beliefs about the rights of women and so on or their political beliefs are extremely loyal to the countries they are in and their institutions. interesting to see pakistanis of northern england often pointed to as integration failure story. they have done very poor economically and their values often resemble those of the rural villages they come from more than the country they liver in. nonetheless, many times studied by different groups with different backgrounds. every study of loyalty and patriotism show these muslims in pakistani and england more loyal to institutions including military than anglican population. you get muslims who say they

value their religion above their country. what's interesting about that it tends to be about the same rate as christians in those countries. >> what about the general idea these immigrants muslim immigrants in europe are angry? they are angry with the world, angry with the fact that the world is not of their making that the west is sort of the dominant power. there is a kind of rage muslim rage in europe. >> no. we do need to understand there obviously are some people among that community very angry. people committing anti-semitic attacks on journalists and terrorism. these are individuals motivate bid anger. the question is does that reflect the community around them? is that born out of the community around them or imported a foreign value they have adopted as a political movement. what's interesting muslim countries in europe despite

marginalized marginalized educationally seem to be more contented with their life than the normal population. there's not a level of discontent with the society around them or lives they lead among muslims in europe compared to other kbroops. it groups. it's not something that exists in the larger population. >> let me ask you about sean hannity's specific claims which, again are mentioned as well. no-go zones where not even police and fire are allowed. sharia courts established, prayer rugs in every hotel, are italy of these things true? >> this is the sort of urban myth that can only occur with somebody who hasn't spent time in these cities or immigrants of these cities. there are poor neighborhoods in these cities. some of which have crime problems and so on. there is not a single one that anybody could describe as a

no-go zone by the police or by anyone. not in east london not in brussels not in sweden or anything. so we have to understand there is not some european phenomenon of sharia law zones. you might fund odd extremist mullah who would like that idea but it simply does not exist. >> have you ever seen a prayer rug in every room of a hotel? >> i've never seen a prayer mat -- islamic prayer mat in any hotel in europe and i've stayed at hundreds and hundreds of hotels. i've seen them hotels in the middle east which is fully understandable. no in fact i've seen various types of bibles but i've never seen a koran. >> doug saunders pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> next on gps, from terror to jaywalking. in this troubling age should police officers bother writing tickets for smaller, so-called quality of life crimes or should

they be focused on the big stuff? the broken windows theory of policing. we have a great debate with malcolm gladwell.

in the week that straddled new year according to "new york times," new york police department issued 347 summonses,

a year ago, 4,077. that's an astonishing drop year to year. told npr, the cause of such a dramatic drop was a work slowdown by the cops on the beat. they were ignoring small stuff. it raises a fascinating question. do so-called quality of life crimes writing graffiti littering, not picking up after your dog, vandalism, if unattended lead to bigger crimes in social breakdown? bratton was an architect of broken windows theory of policing that cedarses for these minor crimes keep major crime rates down. is it true? i invited on the show the best selling author malcolm gladwell who wrote in support of the broken windows theory in his famous book the tipping point and bernard har court who wrote illusion of order, false premiums of broken windows policing. listen in and see what you think? >> malcolm, explain what is

broken windows mean? >> it was an idea that grew out of the '70s which said criminals take their cues -- would be criminals take their cues from environment. when they are in an environment that appears to them disorderly they take that as permission to behave in disorderly ways themselves. that led to folk is in new york in the 1980s when there was a renewed push to bring down crime rates that said part of that anti-crime strategy ought to be paying attention to symbols in the environment. things like remember famous squeegee men in new york or panhandling on the street or trash on the sidewalk. if it looked clean, people might he behave differently. >> what happens is this policing you describe new policing does correlate, does seem to coincide

with very dramatic long time reduction in crime that has gone on and on and on. crime has gone way down. >> i don't know. one of the things that happened since i wrote "broken windows and tipping point" i've become a little bit of a skeptic. i do think there's something to this idea but i think it was probably oversold by many in the law enforcement community and by me 15 years ago. the story of why crime dramatically underwent this drop in this city and others particularly this city is more complicated than simply an attention to visible signs of disorder. >> so what is your reaction or response to, you know that idea? it does feel intuitively right that if you don't have disorderly environment, if there isn't graffiti on the streets, criminals are going to be less likely to take advantage of it. they did put in place these kind

of policing and it is true crime went down. prima facie there is a correlation. explain why that's wrong. >> crime went down from across the country in early 1990s. it went down remarkably in numbers of jurisdictions which didn't do anything like broken windows policing. some of the slicing and some of the timing you can see it went down more in some areas than new york. overall new york did see a huge drop in crime. but really the reason for that is what's called reversion to the mean or the fact that what goes up a lot goes down a lot. new york was one of the greatest -- was homicide center during the period of 1970s, '80s early '90s. three crime epidemics, three drug epidemics, really the last one being crack cocaine where the heart of it was in new york. so when you run the analysis and

include this idea of how much did crime go up in the particular area it actually goes down more in those areas when there's a crime drop. this is a familiar concept for a lot of investment investors and wall street types, reversion to the mean. it's just the idea of what goes up more is going to come down more. >> the most powerful piece, at least, from what i've seen is the argument that the places which did not do any kind of broken windows type policing also had reductions. >> that's a fact. so san diego, for instance during this period had a very different policing approach less arrests, less incarceration and crimes dropped same amounts if you looked at '9 1 to '98, for instance. it was a national trend and with variations. the variations seen in new york if you look precinct by precinct the places with the highest crime, homicides related

to often crack cocaine were the precincts that saw the greatest drop. >> i would add to what he said new york is a case you see crime reductions around the country. crime has continued to fall in this city year in year out long after it stabilized in other similar major cities in this country. part of what happened in this city was a very powerful psychological transition happened in the 1980s, which was new yorkers -- law abiding new yorkers who felt the city had been taken away from them got it back. remember driving around bed-stuy 10 years ago in a police officer and the police officer rolling down the windows at 11:00 at night saying what do you hear? i hear nothing. exactly. five years ago at this hour you would have heard gunshots. then he was like see that child over there? that kid wouldn't have been on the street five years ago. there's something in that that

is a primary importance. maybe it doesn't show up clearly and immediately in crime statistics. but that notion of people owning their city once again, part of that process, i think, involved people lowering their tolerance for these kinds of signs of disorder, which are part of what causes you to give up and move to the suburbs, right? >> that's surely true. part of the flight of middle class families that took place in the '60s and '70s was not always related to big crimes but the sense of unruliness. the reconstitution of that kind of order surely helps. >> well i think it's important to understand how order is constituted in a city like new york. times square is a good example. if we think about how times

square has become orderly. a lot of times broken windows proponents times square changed because of the real estate redevelopment planned in the 1970s basically. >> final thought. >> in my last book "david and goliath" far different strategy more successful bringing down crime, one based on police try to establish real ties with the communities they are policing to win the trust of families. that excites me in a way that this old idea of broken windows no longer does. you just can't have a situation where you're locking up an entire generation because they are shoplifting. that's an absurd overapplication

of what at the core might have been a useful idea. >> next on gps, images of last week's terror attacks were followed by scenes of passionate patriotism in unlikely places. i will show you when we come back. ♪♪♪ i've smoked a lot and quit a lot but ended up nowhere. now...i use this. the nicoderm cq patch with unique extended release technology helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq. she inspires you. no question about that.

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boca haram massacred as many as 2,000 people in january according to local officials in nigeria, brings me to my question of the week what does boko haram translate into it, a, the greatsness of faith, b, devotion of the prophet, c,

western education is for bidding. d, down with the great satan. stay tuned. this week's book "@war" by shane harris. we need to understand it much more deeply than we do. this might be a well guide, spirited account of the challenges we face and how to counter them. the correct answer to gps challenge question is c boko haram is c, western education is forbidden. people committed to propagation of prophet's teaching and jihad. now for the last look. the terrorist takeover of kosher supermarket in paris was another in a series of attacks on jews in france. some may not stay for the next one. twice as many jews left france for israel in 2014 than did in the previous year. but many most french jews are deeply patriotic. something we're reminded of last

week. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu delivered a speech they would be welcomed with open arms and hearts. then he sang along to the national anthem. then the congregation broke into an impromptu chorus of france's national anthem. synagogues weren't the only groups expressing impromptu patriotism. listen to what happened in parliament following a moment of silence for the victims of the attack. ♪ ♪

according to the french government this has not happened in the national assembly since the end of world war i. throughout paris last week we saw extraordinary moments of passionate patriotism. all these spontaneous outburst recall one of the most famous movie scenes in history, casablanca german soldiers start stinging patriotically. ♪ >> a defined victor lasslo leads a spontaneous rendition. ♪ ♪

part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. xxxx xxxx authorities on high alert. we're covering aftermath of terrible "charlie hebdo" attack in paris. breaking news from delaware. we just learned a vehicle that drove near vice president joe biden's residence last night and fired multiple gunshots. this happened around 8:25 p.m. the vice president was not home at the time. he was out to dinner with his wife. he was expected to spend the weekend at his home. we'll have more as wets get it at this hour. bring it cnn washington.