state of the union. i'm dana bash. ftse "fareed zakaria gps" starts now. >> this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, the two major threats that flared up this week. first isis. president obama called it a brutal vicious death cult. the terror group horrified the world this week with its gruesome murder of a jordanian pilot. now isis has made a new claim, that jordanian airstrikes killed

a young american being held hostage. true or not, the aid worker has become the latest tool of isis propaganda. is it winning the war or losing it? then escalations in ukraine. the death toll has ticked to over 5,000. is all-out war in the offing or is a peace plan possible? also i'll tell you the best thing in president obama's budget proposal. something that would likely make money for taxpayers. and finally, all over the world, leaders now wear a pretty standard dress, almost a uniform, except for one guy. will he conform? but first here is my take. once again an isis murder leads

to fear it is winning and thoughts to do more. pretty bear captured the mood like this. >> hovistic barbaric as well as calculating and skilled at high-tech propaganda. >> the general feeling is that isis is gaining ground with its diabolical methods. but is it really? the video of the pilots killing was slickly produced but it might have been a fancy cover to mask an operation that had gone awry. remember it began as a moneymaking scheme to get a ransom for japanese hostages, then turned into a hostage swap for a forgotten failed suicide bomber and finally ended with the emulation of the jordanian pilot. certainly it could not know the reactions in the middle east with jarredordanians against it clerics condemning and more aid

against it. meanwhile news on the battlefield has not been good for isis. brooklyn scholar describes stunning reversal in iraq. "the washington post" reported on the growing discontent within its territories. all this might help explain the brutality of the latest murder video. the group well understands that the primary purpose of terrorism is to induce fear and overreaction. when first on the scene in the '60s and '70s, historian wrote in foreign affairs the best guide to this fen on mom. provided two tactics of terror that worked and have important lessons. he recount add meeting in 1945 with the leader of a group of about 1,000500 jewish militants in palestine, which was then part of the british empire. they knew that they could not

defeat the mighty british army so they decided to proceed up buildings and create the appearance of chaos. this the urban leader said would lead british to overreact, garrison the country, forces from across the empire and that would strain british coffers and eventually london would have to lead palestine. franken noted seeing it was to small to defeat great britain decided as an alternative approach that britain was big enough to defeat itself. isis strategy is surely some version of this. the targeting of america and its allies. the video, barberism all designed to draw into battle in syria with the hopes this bloody war would sap strength. frommekin offered another, national front, group trying to

break algeria free from france in the 1960s. argued was not a colony but part of france with all of its citizens treated as french men and women. so the fln began a campaign of terror in order to proceed voek an overreaction from the french government getting them to regard all muslim algerians aspects. quote, the french thought when fln plant add bomb in a public bus it was in order to proceed up the bus frommekin noted. but fln's true aim was to lure authorities into reacting by arresting all the non-europeans in the area aspects. the many recent acts of terror committed in europe can be said to -- can't be said to have a strategy but auto they could make european governments and people treat all muslims in europe as suspicious and dangerous, and then the terrorists will have achieved an important goal. now, these things do not have to

happen. frommekin concluded his essay by noting that though terrorism canals be prevented, it can always be defeated. you can always refuse to do what they want you to do. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. let's get started. you've heard my take. let's dig deeper into the latest news about the jordanian airstrikes arab reaction and more. joining me from washington, d.c. is marwan washer former deputy prime minister of jordan and vice president for studies at the carnegie endowment for international peace. in paris we have -- teaches studies at the school of economics. here in new york an israeli arab journalist who worked as an

anchorwoman in both egypt and italy. thank you all. let me start with you. you've seen jordanian pilot emulation, reaction to it what is the state of isis after all this this. >> isis savagery should not blind us to the fact isis is self-destructive. isis is strangling itself. isis is pitting itself against must lumm mainstream public opinion and arab public opinion. there is really shock and outrage throughout the arab and muslim world. i would argue that isis is digging its own grave. the reality is this is where you want isis to be. you want it to be pitted against arab and muslim public opinion. this is how isis should be

defeated from within by arab and muslim public opinion. even if you defeat isis militarily you have to deconstruct ideology. the debate in the united states it's all about westerners and it should be but isis represents a fundamental challenge to arab and muslim societies not to american and western societies. >> marwan when you listen to this do you think that this -- these events of the last week have made it easier for the jordanian government to be more aggressive. will we see a change not just in jordan but other countries? >> certainly is unprecedented for sometime. if they wanted to galvanize public support against the government they miserably failed to do so. i agree that what they have

shown is true colors. no sane human being, let alone muslim would accept somebody to be burned alive and filmed on tv. this has given government a strengthened hand in dealing with isis militarily. i would argue that in addition to military strike we badly need today intellectual leaders to start openly and proactively talking about a plueralistic society, diverse society, inclusionist society because that is the only way you can defeat isis in addition to, you know the military campaign. >> when you hear marwan say that paint a positive vision more plueralistic more open you wrote a terrific piece pointed out while we are battling isis we are also strongly supporting

somebody like president cici because he fights trochl but does not represent pluralism. he's been jailing people left right, and center. >> i think, fareed, you're right about this. we need to think beyond terror and tyrant. moderate inclusion will open the door for them to be with extreme ises. when you see cici and others before him autocrat as answer to deterrent you have to think the same regime who gave you political islam, caught up in the '60s. iman zawahiri is a product of the regime. let's remember the man who built al qaeda in iraq a jordanian man, who fought shiites in iraq but also sent people to blow up themselves in jordan nine years

ago. we need to decimate extremists. extremists is not only isis but al qaeda, el nasr front. how do you dry up this? we need consensus and inclusion also need this war from shiites to end. we need to come to terms and reach some kind of agreement that end up these extremists. >> we need to come face-to-face with this fact from now on if we want stability and prosperity in the arab world, we have a responsibility to push more more inclusion in purelistic and diverse societies. that hits at the core of what isis is saying. isis predecessor zawahiri were defeated in 2007 in iraq only to

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a home fire or other emergency. you can help. please donate now. muasher, rula jebreal. very simple recap, the president said we shouldn't get on our high horse when we think about islam and terrorism. there were a lot of bad things done in the name of christianity slavery sometimes justified that way. you're a scholar of the middle east but also a christian.

i wondered how this whole issue struck you? >> fareed obama got it right. isis are the crusaders, today's crusaders. they are slaughtering in the name of religion. they have a twisted interpretation of faith. crusaders killed not only jews but christians. isis will keep focusing on the few western victims. remember the overwhelming number of victims of muslims. not just even minority shiites, christians. isis has slaughtered thousands of sunni citizens and iraquis. but the question is the crusaders and isis, the reality is isis has to be deconstructed. these twisted interpretations of the faith must be faced head on and only arabs and muslims can

deconstruct this particular twisted interpretation of the faith. the reality is this is an internal lwara civil war within the islamic world. this is not about islam and the west this is about the identity of the state in the muslim world and islamist world is raging in multiple places syria, iraq yemen and other places as well. >> rula you wrote a piece you talked about how europe has a lot to learn from the united states in dealing with this phenomenon of radical islamism. you were a journalist for years. explain what you mean. >> very simple the reaction to extremism, whether it's al qaeda, isis and others triggered in us it's designed to induce fear and designed to push for overreaction. so there's two things i think we learn after 13 years of war on terror.

one, that invasions, western invasions alone did not work. so less invasions, i said and more integration. you have 20 million muslims living in europe today. europe's muslim citizens for a sense of belonging and that makes them an easy target for radicalization. also if i may, fareed we need to address the ideology of saudi arabia. we can't with partners fighting with us while they are spreading their ideology that al qaeda and isis share. that's why in raqqah the headquarter of isis they are distributing textbooks that are saudi textbooks. they share the same ideology. we need to address that issue. political reform and economic reform. >> marwan what about that. fauaz gerges says this hab to be an arab debate and arabs have to

push this ideology. as rula points out you still have reactionary interpretations of islam, very puritanical interpretations they have exported. is that changing when you look at it's one thing to oppose jihadi terrorist groups are they taking on very puritanical reactionary views of their religion which exclude nonbelievers which exclude foreigners and in a sense encourage a certain kind of militants. >> we have two human being wakeup calls. one the arab uprising brought by a sense because people were marginalized excluded not participants in part of the decision-making process. two, isis barbaric ideology that is trying to speak on behalf of arabs and muslims when it has nothing to do with them. these are huge wakeup calls that we all need to, you know both

governments and the general public need to internalize the lessons from. any time we talk exclusionist policies this is going to be the result. and the arab world does have a responsibility. we cannot escape the fact and we cannot not acknowledge that from now on building a stable and permanently stable and prosperous arab society is going to take a lot more than military strikes. and just because it takes a lot more time does not mean we cannot and shouldn't start now. that is the lesson that i hope the arab world is going to internalize. is it being internalized? i'm afraid with the exception of tunisia, we have not seen any signs of that yet. >> on that sober note marwan muasher -- thank you very much. up next a person's brain is never more dynamic than during its earliest years.

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segment. president obama's 2016 budge has washington buzzing this week. but whatever you think of most of it there's one proposal in there that is important, even urgent preschool education for every four-year-old in america from poor and moderate income family. why? preschool is the crucial time to have an impact on a child's development a national research notes, from the time of conception to the first day of kindergarten a person's development proceeds at a pace exceeding that of any subsequent stage of life. before age six, the brain roughly quadruples in weight

according to a study by the university of manchester and reaches about 90% of its adult size. 700 new neural connections are formed every second in the first years of life according to experts at harvard who also point out that the brain is most flexible early in life and that its capacity for change decreasing with age. unfortunately, the u.s. is way behind other countries when it comes to educating our youngest brains. only 38% of american three years old are enrolled in some kind of preschool according to oecd ranks united states 32 in the study trailing nations like chill, and colombia. france and belgium enroll nearly all their three years old. american four years old don't fare better 46 compared to the

average of 84%. that ranks 32nd out of 39. meanwhile china is educating children for three whole years before primary school the government says and growing their preschools at a blistering pace. in 2010 china had 57% enrolled they say. but in 2013 they had already reached 68% and they expect to hit 75% in 2016. of course not all early education programs are equal. ♪ now i know my a, b, cs ♪ >> done right, preschool can have a profound effect on people's lives. this week "the washington post" cited the famous perry preschool project. in 1962 researchers identified a group of 123 at risk african-american children in michigan. giving about half of them access to preschool while the other half did not have access. they followed their subjects for four decades. what they found was remarkable.

77% of the people who went to preschool had graduated from high school compared to only 60% who had not gone to preschool. those who went to preschool had a median annual income that was over $5,000 higher than the nonpreschoolers. and while 36% of the preschool graduates had been arrested more than five times, 55% of the nonpreschool graduates had been arrested more than five times. all tolled the roughly $15,000 investment per child yielded a total public savings of almost $200,000 thanks to the money not spent on welfare programs jail and other costs, according to the study. oh and in addition preschool would help social mobility decrease inequality and make better use of the human talent of so many americans. not a bad bargain. a quick programming note of sorts. many of you have asked how you

could watch a "gps" special called moon shots of the 20th century that was supposed to air around the new year. as of today it's available on cnn go. point browser to cnn/go or check out on cnn ipad app by clicking go button. if you're not able to watch it that way, mark your calendar for march 22nd. that's when we intend to air it right here on cnn in our regular timeslot. next on "gps," the other major crisis in the world. ukraine, are we on the brink of war? -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com

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the conflict between russia and ukraine has already left more than 5,000 dead and 12,000 wounded, according to numbers

from united nations this week. this doesn't get at the creeping danger of a new cold war between east and west. why has it been so hard to end this tussle? what are the prospects for a genuine and lasting accommodation between moscow and kiev? to help answer these questions, joining me now are bill growder, once largest foreign investor in russia now he's written a nonfictional thriller, "red notice" about his time in russia. a scholar at nyu. a writer at reuters. steven has worked on soviet and russian issues at the highest level of academia and think attention. steve, as the dispassionate think tanker here really from the point of geo politics why is this problem getting worse not better.

>> putin has no reason to stop that has persuaded him. he made a decision last year that his success in crimea was so incredible created such a nationalist sensation that he's only going to more and more. putin only at home except for blowback economic isolation and, cost. he faces a difficult situation because it played out for him dadly internationally. domestically not so much. >> stephen, when it all happened you did predict putin, this is core to putin and to russia. you see it i assume differently in the sense you see this as essentially a kind of core russian national security interest. >> the other steve and i

fundamentally disagree. first of all let's say where the it is where we are now. we are in a cold war, we may be approaching a war with russia ukraine in ruins east and west. europe is split, may be a factor in the trans alliance. as a historian and somebody who has been following this for years because it began years ago. putin did not initiate this crisis he did not want it. it's bad for him, contrary to steve, and he wants it ended. he's not going to end it on terms of capitulation. the argument if we arm kiev and there's a train in that direction, a lot of move in that direction, will only make things worse. there is a way out. the only people who seem interested in exploring that way out are chancellor merkel and they are not very strong. war parties in washington kiev

and nato are now running this and we literally may be as i told you in february i think, heading to a cuban missile crisis confrontation with russia. >> you have a long piece in "prospect" magazine what does putin want? what's the answer? what does he want? >> falling out from what steve said i think the key to understanding putin is ultimately what he wants is power and money. putin ultimately established it -- and bill knows this very well -- a personal cleptocracy. he was able to rule lake stalin but live like the russian oligarch who owns chelsea. if you think in the mind of an autocrat perfect world. you can go on yachts in the mediterranean, london football

clubs but also authoritarian at home home. putin's problem even before the ukrainian crisis this was breaking down somewhat because the russian economy wasn't working. it wasn't producing the results needed to sustain this. he was looking for some other source of legitimacy. the ousted ukrainian president partly offered that. he could have sort of a mini putin, reinforce him a little bit. what he's discovered now, i think somewhat to his surprise i don't think he has a master plan i think it's been tactical he can use extreme nationalism as a new source of legitimacy. it's not going to last. >> bill paint a picture of the russian economy. you know it backwards and forwards. you were the most successful investor in russia. what does the russian economy look like today and why is a somewhat bleak picture, why is

it not deterring putin. >> the russian economy is one big -- it's a crook sitting at a gas station. it's a world gas station, all they do. if you break it down more than half revenues come from fuel exports exports. add aluminum other stuff. they don't make things people want to buy. anything they consume has to come from the west. in addition to all the problems they have with sanctions and capital flight they also have the problem, which was totally unintended it wasn't like western policymakers organize this but the price of oil collapsed. it's gone down by half. it's created a bad situation. what happened in russia everybody is trying to get their money out as fast as they can. ruble devalued. if you're a russian citizen buying consumer goods, they are twice as expensive as they were

before. this war was created as a distraction but now has to keep on doing this war and invade other countries, probably to keep a distraction from the economic problems. >> when we come back we're going to talk more about this new cold war and also about bill brouder's fascinating story about his battle against the russian state when we come back. really... i guess i did take some risks. anncr: bode, bode miller!!! trained a little bit differently. a little too honest sometimes. the media is useless. you were out of control. but not always. meet the world's newest energy superpower. surprised? in fact, america is now the world's number one natural gas producer... and we could soon become number one in oil.

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this is not the soviet union. >> if by russia you mean the russian people they have no appetite for this. neither does the american people. this is something given to us by the elites of the two countries. not only are we in a new cold war, but it's potentially more dangerous than the last one. the center of this cold war is right on russia's border not berlin ukraine. it's existential. when you hear already russian generals talking about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, you know that russia is shall we say, stressed. the problem here in part are the remarks about putin. something strange has happened. the demonization of putin, which is beyond any factual basis, leads to a kind of amnesia among people here who should know better. kleptocracy, that's not characteristic of the russian economy, they had the biggest

grain bumper crop in decades this year. they manufacture a lot of stuff. if they are dependent on minerals as they are, blame god not putin. the fact is this economic system was created by yeltsin, mr. browder knows that he worked in russia at the time. miss freeland knows this because she wrote one of the best books about this. suddenly it's about putin, he inherited this system. but something has happened here. this vilification of putin, i've been doing this -- i'm probably the oldest at this table -- i do not recall this public vilification referring to the russian leader as a hitler which is completely incorrect that ever having been done to a soviet communist leader after stalin. the result is a kind of analysis you're hearing here. all about putin. there's no russia. russia has no agency. here is the point. henry kissinger said back in march of last year the

demonization of putin is not a policy it's an alibi for not having a policy. it's worse, it's completely obscured. it's degraded any kind of rational analysis of this country as to who is to blame for this and how we get out of it. the result is as we talk -- as we talk and this is not idle rhetoric, we may be herd ling toward actual war with russia. >> partly there's an interesting test of international relations theory here when a country, a leader has fewer resources, faces more constraints, more pressure does he back down or does he lash out? so far certainly on the upside the argument has been that as oil revenues have increased, putin's ambitions have grown over the last 15 years, right in that's been the general thesis when russia needed debt forgiveness in 2000 putin was nice. bush said i looked into his eyes and saw his soul.

why wouldn't that work? why wouldn't the fact oil revenues declining make him more cautious accommodating. >> i would say two things. first of all, contrary to a lot of international relations theory. i think that the domestic nature of the regime matters and it makes a difference. a democratic russia did and would behave differently from an increasingly authoritarian russia. to the point about oil revenue, i think that we shouldn't be deceived by putin's bluster, by his ability as he and his ministers proudly say -- these are guys who proudly say we can take casualties we can take losses but we shouldn't be deceived by that to believe this is the soviet union and this is a very strong regime. their economy is weak. i think there are internal pressures on putin right now. his cronies, putin oligarchs are really unhappy.

i think the russian bushoir is crushed, over. i do think putin didn't want to get here thought it would be simple join the customs union and it was all going to be fine. he did crimea i think impulsively. it worked better than he thought and he's just kind of kept on going since then. >> so a lot of the conversation has been about putin, the personal nature of the regime him as a person. you've battled in a way personally with this regime. he's talked about you personally. what are the conclusions -- what's your conclusion in reading of the regime based on the struggles you recount in your book? >> well first of all, putin is entirely rational. he doesn't do anything irrationaly, autos just operating with different motives than we are. first thing you have to understand about putin, throw all morality out the window when it comes to decision making.

he will kill people start wars destroy russian population if it enhances his position makes him wealthier or keeps him from being arrested. what this ukrainian situation is about everything else he's doing, started out as a kleptocrat as much money as he could. all of a sudden in a position where russian people were mad at him. it got to the point he was afraid he would suffer the same fate if he didn't change the narrative. he starts a war, which went really well with crimea. they are bombarding the russian people with propaganda to tell them ukrainians are fascist nazis backed by america, we have to fight against them. started this war. he's got an 80% approval rating. all of a sudden everybody in this nationalist fervor. he can't say, thank you, i'll take my 88% and be done with it. he's got to keep the

nationalists where we're going for 88%. that's when things started going horribly awry for him. going into eastern ukraine wasn't going to crimea. they are taking casualties. russian people don't want casualties economy crashing because of sanctions. >> a question for you. do you believe not only are we in a cold war, there's a possibility of something worse? >> i think we are getting toward a cold war that meets a lot of the definitions that we used to have of the old one. it's taken on an ideological character. it involves tests of strength. it does involve a lot of elite hostility, a lot of uncertainty as to what each side wants. whenever you've got a cold war, there's a danger that it can get hot. this is a dangerous situation in ukraine. it calls for calm and resourceful and determined

policy because it can get plenty worse than it is now. >> the most dangerous overall security situation since the enof the cold war? >> clearly. >> on that happy note thank you all. fascinating conversation. next on "gps," we all know the tale of the emperor's new clothes. we will tell you the tale of the prime minister's new ties or the absence thereof when we come back. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher brighter denture everyday.

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the report published 2015 global wish list this week. it brings me to my question. the u.s. and china have the first and second most billionaires in the world. what country is in third place? india, the united kingdom, russia or saudi arabia? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is william browder's "red notice" a

true story of high finance, murder and one man's fight for justice. browder writes surprisingly well for a financier and tells gripping tale of his adventures misadventures and now campaign against the russian threat. this is a real world thriller that sheds a harrowing light on the inner workings of the russian government. now for the last look. last month greece's left wing anti-austerity party swept to victory in the country's parliamentary election. the new prime minister alexis tispras came to power no more bailouts submission black mailing. people have noticed something else appears to be no more. ties. here he is sworn in as prime minister and leading the country, leading many important people without a tie.

prime minister handed him a present, a tie. he said he would wear one when there was a viable solution for europe's debt problem. some critics say this lack of appropriate clothing suggests and aversion to the establishment. but does the lack of a tie equate to a lack of respect. as others have noticed if you consider 2013 g 8 summit a serious meeting didn't necessarily require ties as long as it was a group decision. if you're an apec leader you have a different uniform, crazy shirts. the truth is if tispras can broker a deal debt forgiveness, he could wear a toga and a crown of laurel leaves when he returns to greece. the correct answer to "gps" challenge question is a, india, it has surpassed uk and russia to take third place according to hurun's report.

leading the group as richest person. who is the world's richest person? that would be bill gates who will be on the show next week. thanks to all of you for being part of my program. i will see you next week. xcxxxx xxxx good morning. it's time for reliable sources. today's program is all about what's reliable. tv industry trans fixed by what is an extraordinary scandal at abc, imperilling the face of brian williams. the news anchor admitted to embellishing a story about coming under fire in iraq in 2003. that matters because, well brian williams -- let me put it this way. this country has no walter cronkite anymore, but brian williams is the closest thing to cronkite we have left. now he has benched himself, as one source said to me while nbc figures out what is true and what is not true. here is