>> thank you so much for watching state of the union. i'm dana bash in washington. "fareed zakaria gps" starts now. \s >> this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, the two major threats that flared up this week. first isis. president obama called it a brutal, vicious death cult.

the terror group horrified the world this week with its gruesome murder of a jordanian pilot. now isis has made a new claim, that jordanian airstrikes killed a young american woman being held hostage. true or not, the aid worker has become the latest tool of isis propaganda. is it winning the war or losing it? then escalations in ukraine. the death toll has ticked to over 5,000. is all-out war in the offing or is a peace plan possible? also i'll tell you the best thing in president obama's budget proposal. something that would likely make money for taxpayers. and finally, all over the world, leaders now wear a pretty standard dress, almost a uniform, except for one guy. will he conform?

but first here is my take. once again an isis murder leads to fear it is winning and thoughts to do more. fox news' bret baier captured the mood like this. >> horrific, barbaric as well as calculating and skilled at high-tech propaganda. >> the general feeling is that isis is gaining ground with its diabolical methods. but is it really? the video of the pilot's killing was slickly produced, but it might have been a fancy cover to mask an operation that had gone awry. remember, it began as a moneymaking scheme to get a ransom for japanese hostages, then turned into a hostage swap for a forgotten failed suicide bomber, and finally ended with the immolation of the jordanian pilot. certainly it could not know the reactions in the middle east with jordanians against it

unitedly and with clerics condemning and more against it. meanwhile news on the battlefield has not been good for isis. brooklyn scholar describes stunning reversal in iraq. "the washington post" reported on the growing discontent within its territories. all this might help explain the brutality of the latest murder video. the group well understands that the primary purpose of terrorism is to induce fear and overreaction. when modern middle eastern terrorism first appeared on the scene in the 1960s and '70s the historian david franken wrote an essay in foreign affairs that is perhaps the best guide to understanding this phenomenon. he provided two examples of terror tactics that worked and have important lessons. he recounted a meeting in 1945

with a leader of a group of about 1,500 jewish militants in palestine, which was then part of the british empire. the tribe knew that they could not defeat the mighty british army so they decided to blow up buildings and create the appearance of chaos. this their leader told franken, would lead the british to overreact by garrisoning the country, drawing forces from across the empire. and that would strain british coffers and eventually london would have to leave palestine. noting that they were too small to defeat great britain, great britain was big enough to defeat itself. isis strategy is surely some version of this. the targeting of america and its allies. the video, barbarism all designed to draw into battle in syria with the hopes this bloody

war would sap strength. fromkin offered another, the national liberation front the group of nationalists trying to break algeria free from france in the 1950s and '60s. the paris government argued that algeria was not a colony but part of france with all of its citizens treated as french men and women. so the fln began a campaign of terror in order to provoke an overreaction from the french government getting them to regard all muslim algerians aspects. quote, the french thought when fln planted a bomb in a public bus it was in order to proceed up the bus fromkin noted. but fln's true aim was to lure authorities into reacting by arresting all the non-europeans in the area as suspects. the many recent acts of terror committed in europe can be said to have a strategy but they could make european governments and people treat all muslims in

europe as suspicious and dangerous. and then the terrorists will have achieved an important goal. now, these things do not have to happen. fromkin concluded his essay by noting that though terrorism cannot always be prevented, it can always be defeated. you can always refuse to do what they want you to do. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. let's get started. you've heard my take. let's dig deeper into the latest news about the jordanian airstrikes, arab reaction and more. joining me from washington, d.c. is marwan muasher, former deputy prime minister of jordan and vice president for studies at the carnegie endowment for international peace. in paris we have fauaz gerges,

who teaches middle east studies at the london school of economics. here in new york, rula jebreal, an israeli arab journalist who worked as an anchorwoman in both egypt and italy. thank you all. let me start with you. you've seen jordanian pilot immolation, reaction to it, what is the state of isis after all of this? >> you know fareed isis savagery should not blind us to the fact that isis is self-destructself-de self-destructing. isis is strangling itself. isis is pitting itself against muslim mainstream muslim public opinion and public opinion, arab public opinion. there is really shock and outrage throughout the arab and muslim world. i would argue that isis is digging its own grave.

the reality is, this is where you want isis to be. you want it to be pitted against arab and muslim public opinion. this is how isis should be defeated, from within, by arab and muslim public opinion. even if you defeat isis militarily you have to deconstruct this ideology which is insid with us and has done a great deal of damage particularly to arab and muslim societies. i know the debate in the united states it is all about westerners. and it should be. but isis represents a fundamental challenge to arab and muslim societies, not to american and western societies. >> marwan, when you listen to this, do you think that this -- these events of the last week have made it easier for the jordanian government to be more aggressive. will we see a change not just in jordan but other countries? >> certainly the unity that took place among jordanian society is unprecedented for some time. if isis wanted to galvanize

public support against the government they miserably failed to do so. i agree that what they have shown is their true colors. no sane human being, let alone muslim, would accept somebody to be burned alive and filmed on tv. this has given both the government and the king of course a strengthened hand in dealing with isis militarily. i would argue that in addition to military strike we badly need today intellectual leaders to -- and religious leaders to start openly and proactively talking about a pluralistic society, a diverse society, an inclusionist society. because that is the only way you can defeat isis in addition to, you know, the military campaign. >> rula when you hear marwan say that what we need to do is to paint a positive vision that's more plural ist being,

more open you wrote a great piece pointing out that "while we are battling isis we are also strongly supporting somebody like president el sisi because he fights terrorism but does not represent pluralism. he's been jailing people left, right, and center. >> i think, fareed, you're right about this. we need to think beyond terror and tyrant. a lack of inclusion of moderate muslims will open the space for them to be exploited by extremists. so when you view sisi or mubarak before him, autocrat as an answer to deterrent, you have to think the same regime who gave you political islam, caught up in the '60s. ayman al zawahiri he is a

product of the regime. let's remember the man who built al qaeda in iraq, a jordanian man, who fought shiites in iraq but also sent people to blow up themselves in jordan nine years ago. we need to think how to detonate extremists. extremists is not only isis. it is also al qaeda. it is also al nusra. al nusra fronts. how do you dry up this? we need consensus and inclusion also need this war from shiites and sunni to end. we need iran and saudi arabia to come to terms and eventually reach some kind of an agreement that end up these extremeistsextremists. >> we need to come face-to-face with this fact from now on if we want stability and prosperity in the arab world, we have a responsibility to start pushing for more inclusion as xlurlist pluralistic and diverse societies.

that hits at the kroer ofcore of what isis is saying. isis predecessor zawahiri were defeated in 2007 in iraq only to come back because we only dealt with the military aspect and we forgot to look at the political and social aspect as well. when we come back we'll talk more about islamic terrorism, but i will also ask the panel what they thought of president obama's recent remarks at a prayer breakfast about christianity and islam. kid: do you pay him? dad: of course. kid: how much? dad: i don't know exactly. kid: what if you're not happy? does he have to pay you back? dad: nope. kid: why not? dad: it doesn't work that way. kid: why not? vo: are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab major: ok fitness class! here's our new trainer ensure active heart health. crowd: yayyyy!

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we are back with marwan muasher, rula jebreal. let me ask how the president he a remarks instruction you. very simple recap, the president said we shouldn't get on our

high horse when we think about islam and terrorism. there were a lot of bad things done in the name of christianity the inquisitions slavery was sometimes justified that way. you're a scholar of the middle east but also a christian. i wondered how this whole issue struck you. >> fareed, obama got it right. isis are the crusaders, today's crusaders. they are slaughtering in the name of religion. they have a twisted interpretation of faith. like the crusaders, as you know fareed the crusaders did not only kill muslims. they killed jews. they killed eastern christians. isis will keep focusing on the few western victims. remember the overwhelming number of victims are muslims. not just even minority, shiites,

yaz yazitis and christians, sunni skints and iraqis. but the question is the crusaders and isis, the reality is isis has to be deconstructed. these twisted interpretations of the faith must be faced head on and only arabs and muslims can deconstruct this particular twisted interpretation of the faith. the reality is this is an internal war, a civil war within the islamic world. this is not about islam and the west, this is about the identity of the state in the muslim world and islamist world is raging in multiple places, syria, iraq, libya, yemen and other places as well. >> rula, you wrote a piece you talked about how europe has a lot to learn from the united states in dealing with this phenomenon of radical islamism. you were an anchorwoman in italy for many years. explain what you mean.

>> very simple, the reaction to extremism, whether it's al qaeda, isis and others triggered in us obviously it's designed to induce fear and it's designed to push for overreaction. so there's two things i think we learn after 13 years of war on terror. one, that invasions, western invasions alone did not work. so less invasions, i said, and more integration. you have 20 million muslims living in europe today. europe stripped its muslim citizens from a sense of belonging and that makes them an easy target for radicalization. also, if i may, fareed, we need to address the ideology of saudi arabia. we can't with partners fighting with us while they are spreading their ideology that al qaeda and isis share. that's why in raqqah, the headquarter of isis, they are distributing textbooks that are saudi textbooks.

they share the same ideology. we need to address that issue. political reform and economic reform. >> marwan, what about that. fauaz gerges says this has to be an arab debate and arabs have to push this ideology. as rula points out, you still arab countries that have reactionary interpretations of islam, very puritan cal interpretations that they have exported. is that changing when you look at -- it's one thing to oppose jihadie terrorist groups. but are they taking on these very puritan cal reactionary views of their religion which exclude non-believers, which exclude foreigners and in a sense, encourage a certain kind of militants. >> we have two human being wakeup calls. one the arab uprising brought by a sense because people were marginalized, excluded, not

participants in the decision making process. and two, in isis a radical barbaric radical ideology that's trying to speak on behalf of arabs and muslims when it has nothing to do with them. these are huge wake-up calls into we all need to -- both governments and the general public need to internalize the lessons from. any time we talk exclusionist policies, this is going to be the result. and the arab world does have a responsibility. we cannot escape the fact and we cannot not acknowledge that from now on, building a stable and permanently stable and prosperous arab society is going to take a lot more than military strikes. and just because it takes a lot more time does not mean we cannot and shouldn't start now. that is the lesson that i hope the arab world is going to internalize. is it being internalized?

i'm afraid with the exception of tunisia, we have not seen any signs of that yet. >> on that sober note, marwan muasher, fauaz gerges, rula jebreal, thank you so much. up next, a person's brain is never more dynamic than during its earliest years. so which countries are the best at educating preschoolers? you will be surprised.

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>> now for our what in the world segment. president obama's 2016 budget has washington buzzing this week. but whatever you think of most of it, there's one proposal in there that is important, even urgent, preschool education for every 4-year-old in america from poor and moderate income families. why? preschool is the crucial time to have an impact on a child's

mental development. a national research council report notes from the time of conception to the first day of kindergarten a person's development proceeds at a pace exceeding that of any subsequent stage of life. before age 6, the brain roughly quadruples in weight, according to a study by the university of manchester and reaches about 90% of its adult size. 700 new neural connections are formed every second in the first years of life according to experts at harvard who also point out that the brain is most flexible early in life, and that its capacity for change decreases with age. unfortunately, the u.s. is way behind other countries when it comes to educating our youngest brains. only 38% of american 3 year-olds are enrolled in some kind of preschool, according to the oecd. that ranks the united states 32

out of the 39 mostly affluent countries in the study, trailing nations like chile and colombia. belgium, france enroll nearly all of their 3 year-olds. american 4 year-olds don't fare any better. 46 compared to average of 84%. that ranks 32nd out of 39. meanwhile china is educating children for three whole years before primary school, the government says, and growing their preschools at a blistering pace. in 2010, china had 57% enrolled, they say. but in 2013 they had already reached 68% and they expect to hit 75% in 2016. of course not all early education programs are equal. ♪ now i know my a, b, cs ♪ >> but done right, preschool can have a profound effect on people's lives. this week "the washington post" cited the famous perry preschool project.

in 1962, researchers identified a group of 123 at-risk african-american children in michigan. giving about half of them access to preschool while the other half did not have access. they followed their subjects for four decades. what they found was remarkable. 77% of the people who went to preschool had graduated from high school compared to only 60% who had not gone to preschool. those who went to preschool had a median annual income that was over $5,000 higher than the nonpreschoolers. and while 36% of the preschool graduates had been arrested more than five times, 55% of the nonpreschool graduates had been arrested more than five times. all tolled, the roughly $15,000 investment per child yielded a total public savings of almost $200,000 thanks to the money not spent on welfare programs, jail, and other costs, according to

the study. oh, and in addition, preschool would help social mobility, decrease inequality and make better use of the human talent of so many americans. not a bad bargain. a quick programming note of sorts. many of you have asked how you could watch a "gps" special called" moon shots for the 21st century" that was supposed to air around the new year. as of today it's available on cnn go. point your browser to cnn.com/go or collection it out on the cnn ipad app by clicking the go live button. if you're not able to watch it that way, mark your calendar for march 22nd. that's when we intend to air it right here on cnn in our regular time slot. next on "gps," the other major crisis in the world. ukraine, are we on the brink of war?

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the conflict between russia and ukraine has already left more than 5,000 dead and 12,000 wounded, according to numbers from united nations this week. this doesn't get at the creeping danger of a new cold war between east and west. why has it been so hard to end this tussle? what are the prospects for a genuine and lasting accommodation between moscow and kiev? to help answer these questions, joining me now are bill browder, once the largest foreign investor in russia. he's the author of a new book called "red notice," a non-fictional thriller about his experience in russia. stephen cohen is a russian scholar and a professor are at nyu. chrystia freeland, a writer at reuters. stephen sestanovich has worked

on soviet and russian issues at and government and think tanks. steve, as the dispassionate think tanker here really from the point of geo politics, why is this problem getting worse not better. >> putin has no reason to stop that has persuaded him. he made a decision last year that his success in crimea was so incredible, created such a nationalist sensation in russia that he was going to try for more. putin has only benefited from it at home except for the blowback the diplomatic isolation, the economic costs. he faces a difficult situation because in many ways this policy has played out very badly for him internationally. domestically, not so much.

>> stephen, when it all happened, you did predict putin, this is core to putin and to russia. you see it, i assume, differently in the sense you see this as essentially a kind of core russian national security interest? >> the other steve and i fundamentally disagree. first of all, let's say what the "it" is, where we're at now. we are in a cold war. the crept has crept. we may be approaching a cold war with russia. ukraine in ruins east and west. nurp is split. europe is split. it may last. it may be a factor in the transalliance. as a historian and somebody who has been following this for years because it began years ago. putin did not initiate this crisis, he did not want it. it's bad for him, contrary to steve, and he wants it ended. he's not going to end it on terms of capitulation. the argument if we arm kiev and

that train may have left the station. there is a lot of movement in that direction. it will only make things worse. there is a way out. the only people at states men level who seem interested in exploring a way out are president hollande and chancellor mer cal. and they are not very strong. war parties in washington, kiev and nato are now running this and we literally may be, as i told you in february, i think, heading to a cuban missile crisis by confrontation with russia. >> you have a long piece in "prospect" magazine, what does putin want? what's the answer? what does he want? >> falling out from what steve has said i think the key to understanding putin is ultimately what he wants is power and money. putin ultimately established it -- and bill knows this very well -- a personal kleptocracy. in russia. that's what he was about. but for the first 14 years, putin was lucky because he was

able to do as the russians say, rule like stalin but live like russian who owns chelsea. but if you think in the mind of an autocrat, perfect world. you can go on yachts in the mediterranean, london football clubs but also authoritarian at home. putin's problem even before the ukrainian crisis, this was breaking down somewhat because the russian economy wasn't working. it wasn't delivering the results needed to sustain this. he was looking for some other source of legitimacy. yanukovych the ousted ukrainian president, partly offered that. he could have sort of a mini putin, a minikleptocracy next door, reinforcing him a little bit. what he's discovered now, i think somewhat to his surprise, i don't think he has a master plan, i think it's been tactical, he can use extreme nationalism as a new source of legitimacy.

the thing is it's not going to last. this is a house of cards. >> bill, paint a picture of the russian economy. you know this economy backwards and forwards. you were the most successful investor in russia. what does the russian economy look like today and why is a somewhat bleak picture, why is it not deterring putin. >> the russian economy is one big -- it's a crook sitting at a gas station. it's a world gas station, all they do. if you break it down, more than half of all the revenues in russia come from fuel exports. add aluminum, other stuff. steel, et cetera. they don't make things people want to buy. anything they consume has to come from the west. in addition to all the problems they have with sanctions and capital flight, they also have the problem, which was totally unintended, it wasn't like western policymakers organize this but the price of oil has collapsed.

it's gone down by half. it's created a bad situation. what's happened inside russia is that everybody is trying to get their money out as fast as they can. ruble has devalued by more than 50%. if you're a russian citizen buying consumer goods, they are twice as expensive as they were before. this ware wasn't created -- this was war created as a distraction from the kleptocracy, but now he has to keep on doing this war and invade other countries probably to keep a distraction from the other economic problems. >> when we come back we're going to talk more about this new cold war and also about bill browder's fascinating story of his battle against the russian state when we come back. daughter: do you and mom still have money with that broker? dad: yeah, 20 something years now. thinking about what you want to do with your money? daughter: looking at options. what do you guys pay in fees? dad: i don't know exactly. daughter: if you're not happy do they have to pay you back? dad: it doesn't really work that way. daughter: you sure?

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plus for a limited time, get a free security camera call 1800 xfinity or visit comcast.com/xfinityhome. we are back with stephen cohen, stephen sestanovich, chrystia freeland and bill browder. you said earlier, steve cohen, that you thought we were in a cold war. it certainly seems like that when you listen to some of the rhetoric of russian planes flying over the english channel. these are bombers.

do the russians really have an appetite for something like this. russia is today 2.5% of global gdp. this is not the soviet union. >> if by russia you mean the russian people, they have no appetite for this. neither does the american people. this is something given to us by the elites of the two countries. not only are we in a new cold war, but it's potentially much more dangerous than the last one. the center of this cold war is right on russia's border, not berlin, ukraine. it's existential. when you hear already russian generals talking about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, you know that russia is, shall we say, stressed. the problem here in part are the remarks about putin. something strange has happened. the demonization of putin, which is beyond any factual basis, leads to a kind of amnesia among people here who should know better. kleptocracy, that's not characteristic of the russian

economy, they had the biggest grain bumper crop in decades this year. they manufacture a lot of stuff. if they are dependent on minerals as they are, blame god not putin. the fact is this economic system was created by yeltsin, mr. browder knows that, he worked in russia at the time. miss freeland knows this because she wrote one of the best books about this. suddenly it's about putin, he inherited this system. but something has happened here. this vilification of putin, i've been doing this -- i'm probably the oldest person at this table. i recall the '60s. i do not recall this public vilification referring to the russian leader as a hitler which is completely incorrect that ever having been done to a soviet communist leader after stalin. the result is a kind of analysis you're hearing here. all about putin. there's no russia. russia has no agency. here is the point. henry kissinger said back in

march of last year the demonization of putin is not a policy, it's an alibi for not having a policy. it's worse than what dr. kissinger has said. it's completely obscured. it's degraded, any kind of rational analysis of this country as to who is to blame for this and how we get out of it. the result is as we talk -- as we talk, and this is not idle rhetoric -- we may be hurtling toward an actual war with russia. >> partly there's an interesting test of international relations theory here, when a country, a leader has fewer resources, faces more constraints, more pressure, does he back down or does he lash out? so far certainly on the upside the argument has been that as oil revenues have increased, putin's ambitions have grown over the last 15 years. right? that's been the general thesis, when russia needed debt forgiveness in 2000, putin was nice.

bush said i looked into his eyes and saw his soul. why wouldn't that work? why wouldn't the fact oil revenues declining make him more cautious, make him more accommodating? >> i would say two things. first of all, contrary to a lot of international relations theory i think that the domestic nature of the regime matters and it makes a difference. a democratic russia did and would behave differently from an increasingly authoritarian russia. to the point about oil revenue, i think that we shouldn't be deceived by putin's bluster, by his ability as he and his ministers proudly say -- these are guys who proudly say we can take casualties, we can take losses, but we shouldn't be deceived by that to believe this is the soviet union and this is a very strong regime. their economy is weak. i think there are internal pressures on putin right now. his cronies, putin oligarchs are really unhappy.

i think the russian bourgeois is now destroyed. all of those hopes for a middle class life are over. i do think putin didn't want to get here, thought it would be simple, join the customs union and it was all going to be fine. he did crimea, i think impulsively. it worked better than he thought and he's just kind of kept on going since then. what is what's your confusion in reading off the regime on the struggles you recount. >> your book? >> first of all, putin is entirely irrational. he doesn't do anything rationally. the first thing that you have to understand is that putin has

thrown all morality out of the window when it comes to his decision making. he will start wars he will destroy the russian population if it enhances him. he started out as a clep toe cat who wanted to accumulate as much money as he could. and then the russian people were starting to get mad at him and it got to the point where he was afraid he was going to suffer the same fated a jankovic if he didn't start a whole new narrative. so he started a war with went really well with crimea. he's eesstarted this war, he's got an 88% approval rating, all of a sudden everyone is in this nationalist fervor.

he can't say i'll take my 88% and be good with it. going into eastern ukraine wasn't going into crimea they're taking casualties the russian people don't wanting casualties, the economy is now crashing because of sanctions. >> one more question to you, do you believe that not only are we in a cold war, but that there is a possibility of something worse? >> i think we are getting toward a cold war that meets a lot of the definitions that we used to have of the old one. it's taken on an ideological character, it involves tests of strength it does involve a lot of elite hostility, it involves a lot of uncertainty as to what each side wants. whenever you've got a cold war, there's a danger that it can get hot. this is a dangerous situation in ukraine. it calls for came and

resourceful and determined policy because it can get plenty worse than it is now. >> the most dangerous world security situation since the end of the cold war? >> clearly. >> on that happy note, thank you all. fascinating conversation. next on gps, we all know the tale of the emperor's new clothes, we will tell you the tale of the prime minister's new ties or the absence thereof when we come back.

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the report published it's global rich list this week. it brings me to my question. the u.s. and china have the first and second most billionaires in the world. what country is in third place? india, the united kingdom,

russia saudi arabia. this week's book is "red notice" a try story of murder and one man's fight for justice. it tells a gripping tale of his adventures misadventures and now campaign against the russian state. this is a real world thriller that sheds a harrowing light on -- now for the last week. the anti-austerity party swept to victory in the country's parliamentary eelection. the new president came to power promising, quote, no more bailouts no more submission no more blackmailing people have noticed something else appears to be no more. ties. here he is being sworn in as prime minister and then running the country, meeting many important people all without a tie. at least the prime minister

handed the president a tie. he said he would wear one when there was a viable solution for europe's debt problem. some critics have said this lack of appropriate clothing suggests an aversion to the establishment. but does the lack of a tie equate to a lack of respect. if you consider the 2013 g-8 summit a serious meeting didn't necessarily require ties as long as it was a group decision, and if you are an apec you -- in return for a pro growth reform, he could water laurel wreaths when he returns to greece. the answer to the challenge question is india. india now has 97 billionaires.

who is the world's richest person? that would be bill gates. who will be on the show next week. thanks to all of you for watch watching the program and i will see you next week. happening right now in the nudes room ukraine in crisis, shelling continues leaders plan new peace talks this week. plus things aren't getting any better for brian williams. >> now he's benched himself while nbc figures out what is true and what's not true. >> and bruce genre involved in a deadly car accident. investigators now combing through cell phone records and searching through videos of the scene as they try to peace together what happened. the newsroom starts right now.