>> thank you for watching "state of the union." i'm michael smerconish. you can follow me on twitter if you can spell smerconish. ftse gps starts now. >> welcome to all of you around the united states and in the world. i'm fareed zakaria. this week mr. netanyahu went to washington washington. russia reeled from the murder of an opposition leader. the question is reed raisedaised are american and iran working together in iraq. should they? we have a terrific panel to talk about it all.

then a country that is collapsing and in response lashing out at dick cheney. it's very close to home. also in my continuing quest to remind you about the good "news of the world" out there, two special guests. swedish professor hans rosling will dazzle you with charts that will show you a very different world than you've been led to believe you live in. one of bill clinton's favorite experts will tell you about the amazing technological advances that are changing the world for the better. but first here is my take. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu's speech to the united states congress was eloquent moving and intelligence in identifying the problems with the potential nuclear deal with iran. but when describing the alternative to it he entered never never land painting a scenario utterly divorced from

reality. congress joined him on his fantasy ride rapturously applauding as he spun out one unattainable demand after another. netanyahu declared that washington should reject the current deal demand that iran dismantle almost its entire nuclear program, and commit never to restart it. in the world according to bibi chinese, russians europeans will cheer, tighten sanctions and increase pressure which would then lead iran to capitulate. dreams do come true if only we wish hard enough says peter pan. we actually have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. between 2003 and 2005 under another practical president, " iran negotiated with three powers a possible deal to place iran's nuclear program under restraints and inspections.

the chief union negotiator at the time was rouhani, the president. proposed to cap centrifuges at very low levels keep enrichment levels below those used tore weapons and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods which could not be put to military use. peter jenkins, the british representative to the international atomic agency said all of us were impressed by the proposal. the talks collapsed because the bush administration acting through the british government vetoed it. it was certain, jenkins explained, that if the west could scare the iranians they would give in. well what was the result? did iran return to the table and capitulate? no. the country would steal the sanctions now unimpeded by any inspections massively expanded its nuclear infrastructure. iran went from 164 centrifuges

to 19,000 accumulated over 17,000 pounds of enriched uranium gas and ramped up construction of a heavy water reactor at iraq that's one that can be used to produce weapons grade plutonium. harvard university graham allison, one of the foremost excerpts on nuclear matters pointed out that by insisting on maximalist demands and rejecting potential agreements the first of which would have limited iran to 164 centrifuges we have seen iran advance from 10 years away from producing a bomb to only months. netanyahu worries with this deal 10 years from now iran might restart some elements of its program. but without the deal in 10 years iran would likely have 50,000 centrifuges, a massive stockpile of highly enriched uranium, new facilities thousands of experienced nuclear scientists and technicians and a fully functioning heavy water

reactor that can produce plutonium. at that point what will bibi do? for almost 25 years now, netanyahu argued iran was on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon. so why this bibi's predictions been proven wrong for 25 years? a small part of it western and israeli sabotage. but even the most exaggerated claims by intelligence agencies would not account for a delay of more than a few years. the larger part is probably that iran has always recognized that were it to build a bomb it would face huge international consequences. in other words, mullahs have calculated correctly in my view the benefits of breakout are not worth the cost. the key to any agreemnt with iran is keep the cost of breakout high and the benefits low. this is the most realistic past to keeping iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state. >> second star to the right and straight on until morning.

>> not peter pan dreams. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "washington post" column this week. let's get started. for more on iran's nuclear ambitions and prime minister's netanyahu's speech to congress and much more i have a terrific panel. annemarie slaughter, policy planning state department president obama's first term. she's now president and ceo of the think tank new america. joseph nye secretary of defense, former dean of the kennedy school of government former professor of mine and longtime professor at harvard university. he's the author of the new book "is the american century over?" . bret steechbts columnist for "wall street journal" and professor from university of new york and cnn political

commentator. imagine if the deal falls through. imagine bibi gets his wish deal direct bid the united states. what do you think would be the reaction of europeans, chinese, russians. when you were director of policy planning these were your counter-parts. you're dealing with them. what's their attitude? >> i think that's the worst outcome, there's no deal. it's because of the united states. because at that point, this coalition that we have pretty miraculously kept together even the chinese and russians and europeans to keep sanctions on iran that coalition will fall apart. it will be seen that there was a deal that the deal was imperfect but much better than no deal that the united states at the behest of israel blocked that deal. at that point our competitors, other nations will lift their sanctions and we're going to be stuck with ours and with the ability of the iranian government to continue

progressing. >> no zero hour in diplomacy diplomacy. an attempt in 2009 '10, '12. if this deal falls through at some point people will regroup and rethink. the best thing that can happen quite frankly, now that oil is worth half as much as it was when these negotiations began is that you can renew the kinds of verse economic pressure on the anxiouses. this deal tremendous from the sunset provision telling iranians 10 years free and clear when it comes to building any kind of nuclear -- >> there was never going to be a permanent deal in perpetuity. >> this began with discussion of 20 years, even generations. 10 years literally -- >> the goalpost retreated and west keeps moving towards iranian position. >> goalposts have moved

precisely because we have not been willing to agree to a deal that would freeze it where it was. they have gotten steadily closer to getting a nuclear weapon more centrifuges, enriched uranium. if we don't get a deal there's nothing to stop them. >> by the time we go to next round of negotiations they will be even closer. whether oil prices go low or stay strong not the appetite for massive economic pressure in other countries not as idea logically as us more dependent on iranian oil. to imagine we can get not just back to this coalition but to a much stronger coalition and we will be able to retard the progress iran has made in the interim i don't know anyone that studies either iranian politics or global politics vis-a-vis other major powers in the world thinks that's possible. >> joe, what do you think is the likelihood of these sanctions being able to stay in any event. sanctions notoriously get leaky after a while?

>> they will get leaky. if a deal falls through and it's not their fault or our fault, the boat will sink. i think the key question for bret and i'd be interested in his reaction if you really thought that low oil prices and a hope for continuation of sanctions would get you to zero centrifuges, then i think go along with that. do you think that's really plausible? >> we're going to hold that thought because we are going to take a break and bret stephens is going to answer joe nye's question when we get back. in-fed agriculture. they're all competing with each other; they're all making very low margins making enough to survive but not enough to get out of poverty. so kickstart designs low cost irrigation pumps enabling them to grow high value crops throughout the year so you can make a lot of money. it's all very well to have a whole lot of small innovations

but unless we can scale it up enough to where we are talking about millions of farmers, we're not going to solve their biggest challenge. this is precisely where the kind of finance that citi is giving us is enabling us to scale up on a much more rapid pace. when we talk to the farmers and ask them what's the most important thing. first of all they say we can feed our families. secondly, we can send our children to school. it's really that first step that allows them to get out of poverty and most importantly have money left over to plan for the future they want. there's a gap out there. that's keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. at humana, we believe the gap will close when healthcare gets simpler. when frustration and paperwork decrease. when grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home. so let's do it. let's simplify healthcare. let's close the gap between people and care.

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whether you need a warm up before the big race... or a healthy start before the big meeting there's a choice hotel that's waiting for you. this spring, choose choice twice, get a night at no price at 1,500 hotels. book now at choicehotels.com we're back with anne-marie slaughter, peter beinart, joseph nye. for the handful of people who did not sit through the commercial. >> the question i'm proposing to beretta serious question not a

setup, do you think you can under the pressure of low oil prices and sanctions which may be leaky but we're hoping some will hold, do you think

>> you have to exact a price. this is a regime winning everywhere it looks throughout the middle east. in terms. your and prime minister netanyahu. they are winning. >> oil prices and sanctions. how can both be true?

>> they are economically vulnerable. countries on the march can have general vulnerables. right now vulnerability -- >> they are either strong or weak. >> economically vulnerable but at the same time they are playing their cards terrifically in taking advantage of an absence of american will to defend u.s. interest in syria, yemen, and iraq. >> what do you think about reports, "new york times" has a terrific one about the fact u.s. is tacitly relying on iran to battle isis in iraq. >> it's not surprising at all. iran and u.s. have overlapping interests there. part of what benjamin netanyahu was trying to say, isis is the moral equivalent of the regime in iran. that's not true. the iranian regime brutal nasty region but not isis. it's the country that has capacity to be a stable democracy. if it westbound isis there would not be 20,000 jews living in iran with functioning synagogues. we have much more in common both

strategically with this government in iran than isis. i think this is one of netanyahu's big problems. most american don't believe iran and isis are similar threats to the u.s. they concede isis is of a different caliber. >> what about that point. you look at afghanistan, iran and u.s. have same interest both don't like tal bachblt if you look at iraq iran and u.s. have similar interests. is it possible top go beyond nuclear issue. >> not a perfect one. i have a view middle east is going through the equivalent of europe's 30-year war. you're seeing religious divisions, state divisions, nonstate groups all battles. essentially in that kind of situation there's a lot of fluidity in terms of what alliances contemporary coalitions are going to happen.

we're not going to run that any more than you can run french revolution to switch metaphors in the period. it takes decades to work through. will we be involved in one group and another group and the enemy of my enemy, i think yes. >> what do you make of the death -- murder of boris nemtsov. is there anything to say about it? >> i think we are seeing what a brutal regime this is. a regime that i think is stripped more and more of any shred of legitimacy it faces, that it could have. i think that a lot comes down to basically an optimist or pessimist. critics generally pessimistic, authoritarianism on the march. the crucial divide between them and obama, i think obama is basically an optimist. i think he basically believes economic forces forces of globalization will ultimately make a regime like putin not be able to sustain itself forever

and certainly not be on the march. >> i think peter's analysis is right. i'm a pessimist. quite frankly part of the problem that we have with putin is that just as now we're talking about nemtsov, six years ago or a few years talking about another, so many opponents of the regime who met mysterious ends. that was time and again we regretted the murders, wondered about the motives of murders, then swept under the carpet for the sake of pragmatic relationship with russia. so these killing continue. i don't know who killed boris nemtsov but it's just the case a lot of his political opponents come to untimely ends. i think what's happening with britain, with inquiry of murder of alexander, a starting point, historical accountability for what's happening in modern russia. i think russians might be paying attention. as they start paying attention they will realize their enemy

not in the west their enemy in the kremlin. >> there's actually good news in the story, not nemtsov, that's terrible. we don't know who did it. certainly somebody friendly to putin. with that story obscured whaus that demonstration that nemtsov was planning to attend that became a memorial for him, what that shows you is that even at a time when putin is supposed to be at an all-time high spoked of to have support because of the war in crimea he's once again facing significant demonstrations at home. that's what he's terribly afraid of. >> can i just ask a question. do you think we are now in a situation with russia where russia is not the soviet union, so it's not really a cold war, but relationship between russia and united states and west is particularly adversarial. >> i think we're in for a bad spell and it's not just putin.

i argue in my book russia is a country in serious decline. it's a one-crop economy, terrible demographic problem, fewer and fewer russians. it's has a health problem. average russian male dies at age 64 a decade earlier than other developed countries. with such rampant corruption any attempt to reform it is blocked. this is a picture of a society in deep decline. the danger is that declining societies are often more dangerous than rising ones if you ask me which is more dangerous russia or china, i worry more about russia. remember 100 years ago in great war it was austria, hungary, the only major power that really wanted war, and that's because austria and hungary in decline. >> on that sober note thank you very much. up next there's an autocrat

perhaps even more combative than putin and he's right in the united states's own backyard. we will tell you who and why when we come back.

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ot that's with washington. he announced u.s. embassy staff in his country must be cut back by over 80%. he's banned some current and former u.s. officials, george bush dick cheney among them from entering his nation. he's even said that he's had some americans arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. no we're not talking about vladimir putin, it's someone much closer to home. nicholas madura. a recording that links an american citizen to a plot to overthrow him. he wants this american extradited u.s. called it baseless. why is he doing this?

simple. he's collapsing and wants someone to blame or divert attention. the economy is in shambles inflation 70%, higher than any country in the world so far according to barclays. the bank sis the country's debt is deeper than greek's debt. it will plunge this year. supermarket shelves are empbty. hospitals lack basic supplies. the terrible economic policies of mod your, a and late president chavez have taken toll. in efficient exchange rate as being culprits. the economy was already in bad shape last year and then oil prices plummeted making things much worse for this oil-centered economy. we are witnessing the end of

chavismo eggo orks chavismo. he wove together tomorrow cease with authoritarianism post modern autocracy that looked democratic but was anything but. elections are rigged the government controls judiciary and runs national assembly without checks or balances. when chavis was in power, high prices filled government coffers and made him popular. but maduro doesn't come close to his predecessor. his approval rating has fallen to 22% according to that analysis. so how will this play out. parliamentary elections are supposed to take place this year. but he believes it won't happen

unless the ruling party knows it will win. he predicts potential riots over food shortages and says maduro could be forced out of power by rival chavis supporters. the american enterprise institute has a more dire prediction civil war. the government is polarizing he says and it is not embarrassed to use violence. we reached out to the maduro government for comment but we did not get a response. venezuela may be the worst example of a phenomenon we are likely to see more of trouble in oil-rich countries. if oil prices stay low, many regimes that have built on generous subsidies and well paid apparatus of control might find themselves facing severe challenges. alas in the short-term this might not produce regime change and democracy such as crackdowns repression and chaos, which is what we're seeing in venezuela today.

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we normally save the quiz portion of the show until the end but i wanted to give you a pop quiz right now. the question is this. there are about 2 billion children in the world today. in 85 years, in the year 2100 will there be 4 billion children 3 billion children or 2 billion children? the same number of children that are there today. my nest guest hans rosling is a professor at the karolinska institute in sweden. he's known around the world for his dazzling presentations about the world. from health which is his specialty, to demographics to education to money. i caught his talk at davos where

he asked that same question about how many children there would be in 2100. only 26% of the world's ceos and political leaders got the right answer. the same yes was asked to a random group of chimpanzees, 33% of the apes got it right. yes, chimps might be smarter than davos attendees what is the right answer? he'll tell you in a minute. >> it turns out they are not aware of some of the most amazing strides taking place, good news. what do we know about poverty, for example. >> we have the question asked here. in the last 20 years, did the percentage of people living in extreme poverty, did that almost double remain the same or did it half? it's a different alternative. show you here the results from

sweden and u.s. fact is right answer is half. only 30% in sweden and u.s. got it right. >> when we look at vaccines another thing that's controversial in this country, huge evidence it's had enormous positive effects around the world, what do we know? >> this is the question we put. how many of the world's one-year-old kids have got measle vaccines? measle is that well established vaccine that is so important. is it two out of ten, five out of ten or eight out of ten? this is how they answered in sweden and u.s. the fact is that eight out of ten children in the whole world get this vaccine and this is not known. >> what is the biggest change in europe. you study all this stuff. if you were to say to somebody the most important change i notice that is taking place in the world today is what? >> i think what follows

education, what follows girls, what follows getting out of povertyish it is the size of families. europe decreased the size of families. it was six, it was five it came down to way below level. even with immigration population is decreasing in europe. in america it came down slightly later will there was a baby boom after the second world war but it's down to two now. in asia which was such a worry, people label it population bomb but also a nasty expression. this is what you could see from asia. it was, indeed high all the way into 1970s. it's two today. in india, two children or less. africa is something happening? yes, indeed it is 4.5 today. we know that more or less this will happen into the future. we don't know how fast africa will come down. we don't know at this level. but this is a big change from lots of children which many died to few children which

almost all survived. >> now we have the map of the world with the populations of the world. we talked in the past about the world being characterized not by the decline of america but the rise of anyone else. show us that picture. >> what is happening in the world is that the population stops increasing in europe. today we have 1 billion in europe. it's almost stopped in the americas from south and north, africa 1 billion asia 4 billion. what will happen. united nations tells us no more in europe almost the same in america but 1 billion more in asia. with that the fast population growth in asia will increase a little can start to decrease. by mid century also 1 billion more in africa. africa will double. >> what happens at the end of the century. >> no more in america, no more in europe no more in asia but

most probably two more in africa. >> africa's population doubles in size. >> doubles twice. maybe if africa is very suckedful, three and a half. but there will be twice as many people in africa as in the americas and europe together. look if i take north america and west european 1 billion. this is east europe this is latin america. you have less than 10% of the world population here in the old west. you have 80% of the population in asia and africa. >> now let's tell people the answer to the question. >> this is the question you put, less than 1 billion when i was born 2 billion at the turn of the century. which one of these is right. >> how many children will there be 2 billion, 3 billion, 4 billion, there are currently 2 billion. the answer is -- 2 billion. it may increase a little. it may even increase. but the number increase in africa but decrease in asia and europe. when you asked the swedes they

answered like this. in u.s. they answered like this. can you see -- >> 11% swedes got it right, only 7% u.s. government. >> i went to the zoo and i asked the chimps as you said. they get 33%. >> it's random. >> these people answer according to preconceived ideas, how things were back then. >> so this is an important point. to get an answer that is worse than random means you're not ignorant. you have prejudices. >> prejudices you're not upgrading. you learn something in school or in university like 20 30 years ago, the problem is that the kids still learn that in school. they learn how the world was when their teachers graduate. we really have to start getting macronumbers right. the world has changed now. africa is also changing. when this evens out, we'll be around 10 11 billion. that's what we have to feed in the world and we can do it. >> that's why you have the

project, to make people aware of the realities of the world. >> because you can't discuss the future if you don't even know the present. >> hans rosling, pleasure to have you on. thank you. next on "gps," yet another reason to be more optimistic about the world we live in. technology now puts you in charge of your destiny and makes your voice heard in ways unimaginable just 20 years ago. we're going to tell you how you can succeed and profit through all these changes. my guests will explain. at humana, we believe the gap will close when healthcare changes. when frustration and paperwork decrease. when healthcare becomes simpler. so let's do it. let's simplify healthcare. let's close the gap between people and care. meet the world's newest energy superpower. surprised?

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in our house, we do just about everything online. and our old internet just wasn't cutting it.

so i switched us from u-verse to xfinity. they have the fastest, most reliable internet. which is perfect for me, because i think everything should just work. works? works. works! works? works. works. if you're still depressed about the world we live in hopefully my next two guests will change that. peter diamondis is american entrepreneur perhaps best known as founder and chairman of xprize which offers big cash payouts for break through

discoveries that help humanity. author and journalist published together "bold, how to go big and impact the world." are you ready to be more optimistic? listen in. peter diamondis, stephen kotler pleasure to have you on. let's first talk about the bigger issue, which is one of the things you guys have been campaigning to make us all understand that we are not living in scary, dark times but in times of incredible opportunity and abundance. what is the most powerful evidence of that. >> the evidence is 1,000 years ago if you wanted to affect a country or region you had to be the king or the queen to do anything. 100 years ago, you would be the industrialist, robber barron. today any of us have technology to what governments had 20 years ago, access to crowd funding. someone who is driven passionate can actually make a difference go and start a company that can positively impact the lives of millions eventually billions of people. >> in a sense, that's really to

me the most remarkable hopeful sign that there are so many people whose potential is still untapped who have this talent that is not used in any way, people in india, china, africa. >> so that's absolutely right. and we're living in a time where the number of people connected online back in 2010 was about 1.8 billion. over the next five years we're going up to 5 to potentially 7 billion people connected around the world. so there's 3 billion minds entering the global economy. these are 3 billion minds not coming online like we did back in the mid-'90s, they are coming online with access to the world's information on google amazon web services with cloud computing, cloud printing. that's an exciting time to be alive. the number of people solving problems depend on government or large corporations if i care about something i have the tools to solve it create a business

and really drive a world of abundance. >> so when people think about this issue of innovation and the future there is a school of thought that says you know what this all sounds good. these people like the two of you talk about this as a gee whiz kalt to quality to it. if you would look at productivity the way in which things improved, give me 1880s or '90s any day when you have electricity, plumbing hygiene, those are much more important than twitter or an app. >> they may be much more important than twitter and app at that foundational level of taking care of your basic needs, right, but in terms of take it one step farther the twitter and the app kind of democratizes the the power for anybody to make a living, a platform. anybody can come in and develop on that.

it opens up an entire world of entrepreneurial possibilities that wasn't available back in the 1880s. in 1880s everybody had to be a generalist. >> one of the things you talk about in this book is how to take advantage of this world of abundance. one of the things technologies that will do it. you talk about things that democratize, things that dematerialize, take away the money. you talk about craigslist or wikipedia. >> uber air b & b. >> "bold" is a book for entrepreneurs, a how-to manual. three parts, exponential, robotics networks sensors, 3d printing that any entrepreneur can use. you don't have to be a technologist. we show you how in the group how to tap to this. lots of technologyists are

looking into how to tap into this. a lot, how do they think of scale, what are the ways you can think of scale. the final part of the book is the realization we have tools like crowd funding. $15 billion in 2015 in crowd funding will go to $100 billion. so this book is about how do you build a company? how do you become an entrepreneur that impacts a billion people. >> so the key to many of these people is thinking at scale, that ability to think of solving a huge problem and building a huge company. is that different than just being an entrepreneur that wants to start a dry cleaning business and knows how to run the books well so they will always make a profit? >> i think one of the things that's interesting that i've noticed interviewing all the entrepreneurs, very successful entrepreneur entrepreneurs, doesn't seem to be the difference on input, how hard you work the division the

difference how big is your idea. everything else is going to be basically the same. >> if i could add there, when realize is a is involved the world's biggest problems are the world's biggest business opportunities. the flip side do you want to become a billionaire, help a billion people. that level of scale used to only be possible with ge or coca-cola. today an entrepreneur using this hyper connected world can actually create product or service they upload to the cloud and upload to a billion people. this is fundamentally different than even 10 years ago. so it allows each of us to think at a global scale. our mission is stop building photo sharing apps and start taking on the world's biggest problems where you can help build this world of abundance, create tremendous wealth for you and really provide a positive impact for the world. >> peter, stephen, pleasure to have you on. next on gps, the military

draft. it's coming back. not in the united states but in a country that may just be a canary in the coal mine. that might be a mixed metaphor but i'll explain when we come back. if a denture were to be put under a microscope we can see all the bacteria that still exists. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes,

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this week's speech to congress was the third of its kind for israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu who first addressed the room in 1996 and again in 2011 according to the house of representatives. with this latest speech the israeli prime minister joined an elite club becoming the second person in history to address a joint meeting of congress three times. it brings me to my question, who was the only other person to address a joint meeting of congress three times? nelson mandela, winston churchill, yitzhak rabin or queen elizabeth ii. stay tuned we'll tell you the answer. this week's book of the week "bold" whose authors peter diamondis and stephen kotler were just on the show. it describes technology and shows you how to profit from it. both elements science and benefits are well done.

it's written lucidly. maybe this book will help you make money. i'm sure it will help you understand the emerging world. now for the last look. in 1973 the united states did away with its military draft. but according to the cia world fact book approximately 70 countries still have compulsory military service or active conscription program. that group will likely soon include the small country of lithuania whose plan to reintroduce the draft will soon be put before its parliament according to reuters. the compulsory military service will increase the size of lithuania's small military by more than 20% annually according to the lithuanian ministry of defense. this move comes weeks after lithuanian government published an instruction manual for the public called "things to know about readiness for emergency situations and warfare" as pointed out. this looks like a nation racing for war, and it's

understandable. russia's actions in ukraine and crimea have caused great concern throughout the entire baltic region. according to lithuania's president, the country can never be too careful. this week she told the lithuanian press that the country must be able to defend itself for at least the time it would take for nato to mobilize. it is a sobering reminder that in the most developed continent in the world, europe nationalism, conflict and even preparations for war are back in play. the correct answer to the "gps" challenge question is b, so winston church hillwin win-winwin winston churchill was the first foreign dignitary, harvard 1991 midst of world war ii in 1943 and toward the beginning of the cold war in 1952. nelson mandela and yitzhak rabin are the only other foreign leaders to do this twice. if the house republicans choose to mr. netanyahu could have the

opportunity to break all records and make a fourth address as a sitting prime minister but first he has to win the israeli elections later this month. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. xxxx surprising information about brian williams. this just came out. a magazine article that says williams thought about moving from late night tv to comedy pitched himself as a successor to david letterman a big story. we'll have all of that coming up. let's begin with a guest who has never been on cnn before and a story you have never heard before. it is about the biggest star on cable news bill o'reilly. we've been talking a lot about him recently because the fox news host has been at the center of controversy for weeks now over allegations he misled or even lied about his experiences as a reporter many years ago. now nuns are weighing in.