here. smerconish is starting for you. i'm michael summer conxish. welcome to the program. he was one of the most powerful men in washington and now allegations against former house speaker hastert. he was paying a former male student in order to keep quiet about allegations of sexual misconduct when hastert was a teacher and a wrestling coach in illinois. the student was underage at the time and now hastert is facing felony charges for allegedly lying to the fbi about the more than $3 million that he paid the man in apparent hush money. there are so many questions about this case. i want to bring in cnn senior legal analyst jeffrey toobin. i don't know how surprised you are by the latest developments because when we read closely that seven-page indictment the

tell tale signs were there about what this was seemingly all about. >> well let's just step back. i'm surprised by this whole thing. this whole thing is an astonishing surprise to me. i mean the fact that he is being accused of this crime. particularly this kind of crime. once you read the indictment yesterday, it almost couldn't be anything except an acquisition of sexual abuse that could prompt someone to pay $3.5 million decades later. >> let me put on the screen the very first line of the indictment. i think this is what you're referring to. it says approximately from 1965 to 1981 defendant john dennis hastert was a high schoolteacher and coach in yorkville, illinois. that is the first thing the feds wanted you to know in the indictment and then further along, i'll put something else on the screen. individual "a" has been a resident of yorkville, illinois and has known defendant for most of individual "a's" life.

the implication, i think, he was young at the time of whatever the misconduct was when it took place. >> exactly. and, you know anyone who has lived in the real world who read those documents had to aassume that this was some sort of sexual misconduct in a, in an earlier chapter of hastert's life. but only the day after the indictment that our reporting and other people's reporting have confirmed that it is an accusation and only an accusation of sexual misconduct at a time that hastert was a teacher and wrestling coach. >> jeffrey, that's not what the legal case is about. those are the salacious allegations, implications of this case. but the man is being prosecuted for so-called structuring and i know you're an expert in that regard and then lying to the feds. it has a watergate element where the cover up is that of which

will potentially bring him down. >> right. that's what makes this one of the many things that make this case so bizarre. the core accusations are two. one is that hastert engaged in what is known as structuring. which is putting his cash withdrawals from his bank in a way to avoid the obligation that banks have to report all large cash transactions to the treasury department. those cases, people may not be very familiar with them, but they are very common. because banks and congress passed a law where they said in essence, you know we are suspicious of people who are engaging in large cash transactions and we want taput this law in effect that says you have to report them and bad guys tend to avoid reporting them. and then there is the very straight forward crime of lying to the fbi where he's alleged to have made up really what seems

like an absurd story on why he was withdrawing over a million dollars. >> jeffrey, i can't imagine that individual "a" would have had a cognizeable legal claim 30 40 years after what took place. if i am right in that regard there was no potential legal claim that he had, doesn't this have the makings of extortion because presumably it's hastert paying so that this individual doesn't embarrass him. >> you know that is certainly a major issue in the background of this case. is was the request for money from individual "a" a genuine request for compensation that for a terrible thing that was done to him many years ago. or was it simply extortion in the way that david letterman was extorted not too long ago for a related, but certainly not identical kind of claim of misconduct. i can certainly understand why

the fbi, if they believe that this person was a victim of sexual abuse didn't want to prosecute him. victims of sexual abuse are not very appealing defendants. but, certainly, if denny hastert takes this case to trial, extortion will be his defense. his lawyers will say, look. he is a law-abiding, honorable citizen who was confronted with this horrible accusation and to spare his family embarrassment, he paid this person off. but that is not, he would certainly not admit that he engaged in this in the terrible under lying act. >> $10,000 withdrawals. that's what triggers the reportage to the feds. in this case he allegedly made $50,000 withdrawals. had he written a check instead of going back and forth to the bank, would you and i be having this conversation? >> absolutely thought. if he had written a check for

$3.5 million at the very beginning of this process, no illegality and certainly no bank currency issue and no false statement to the fbi, no investigation at all and i think this whole matter would never have been disclosed. why he decided to do this in cash. why he did it this way. perhaps we'll never know. but, you're right. if he simply had written a check, no harm no foul. >> when the feds came knocking, aupparently he told them hey, i was worried about the stability of the banks. >> you know. i mean respectfully to a former speaker of the house, have you ever heard of anything so dumb? the idea that the banks are somehow going to he was worried that the banks were going to go out of business that's why he was taking his cash out. that's going to be a tough one to defend at trial, if this case goes to trial. and, by the way, a 73-year-old man facing a trial that if he's

convicted after trial, might well having him sent to prison i think this case will end in a plea bargain that does not send him to prison. >> thank you, jeffrey. >> all right. coming up the republican presidential field continues to grow week to week. they all want a place on that debate stage. to get there, we'll have to change their campaign strategy. is that a good or bad thing? the five taliban prisoners released for bowe bergdahl will be exchanged. evidence released in the colorado theater shooting. details behind james holmes' deadly rampage. and once you find it you can switch it right on again. you're back! freeze it, only from discover. get it at discover.com. when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about.

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welcome back. this week jurors in the colorado theater trial got a glimpse inside the mind of james holmes. prosecutors introduced a critical piece of evidence, the diary. filled with disturbing details which showed he meticulously planned out his deadly attack and depicts his thought process for choosing a movie theaters as well as his plans for a police response. jurzers heard from holmes during a videotaped psychiatrist after the shooting spree. >> what brings tears to your

eyes? >> just regrets. >> regret. can you tell me a little more? >> usually it's before i go to sleep. >> regrets about? >> about the shooting. >> i want to discuss this with psychiatrist dr. gale salts. to the uninitiated, to a lay person you look at that notebook and you see him writing why countless times. and then you also see him planning meticulously the attack inside the theater and you say, you know this guy is off his rocker. but, of course that's not the legal standard. >> well, it's not the legal standard and it's actually also not the psychiatric standard. very specific diagnostic criteria which he may meet in fact even for say schizophrenia. if he had psychotic thinking

repetitively and he has certain other symptoms that would go with schizophrenia. but even if he does have that diagnosis, it doesn't mean that he's legally insane. so legally insane would require him to have not just psychotic thoughts at that time but psychotic thoughts that specifically altered his ability to know that what he was doing was wrong. >> psychotic thoughts when? psychotic thoughts when he walked into the theater? psychotic thoughts three weeks in advance? it occurs to me that this could be something not necessarily on a continuum. >> that is true. but if he would, even if he had psychotic thoughts three weeks in advance and during the crime. if those thoughts did not impinge on his ability to understand what he was doing and that what he was doing was wrong, then it's not legally insane. so for example, the case of andrea yates who drowned her children. she was deemed legally insane

ultimately because her psychotic thoughts were auditory hallucinations that told her if she didn't drown her children she would be sending their souls to hell and therefore it was the right thing to do. her psychotic thinking impinged her thought of what she was doing was wrong and she thought it was right. if mr. holmes believed what he was doing was wrong and he tried to hide what he was doing because he knew it was wrong, even if he had other thoughts like for instance, that he was the joker, that he was, that he had other psychotic thinking at the same time. it still does not meet the official criteria for legally insane. >> we in the media love talking about cases where the insanity defense is raised. usually they are high-profile cases with a lot of casualties. but rarely successful. why is that the case? >> exactly. because of this criteria. we look at someone who would kill many people and we say,

wow, they must be insane. or if they have ramblings that have other psychotic thoughts attached to them. they must be insane and therefore not guilty by reasons of insanity. but because the law, and i think there, you can really understand how this would be. it's possible that somebody who is very mentally ill can still commit a terrible terrible crime due to sociopathic desires. i just feel like killing people and, therefore, be committing murder. and you can't blame it on their mental illness. >> finally, isn't that notebook the ultimate test. you can read into it that he was insane in a legal sense at the time that he was planning these attacks? you can also look at it and say, wait a minute he was so meticulous that is the product of a sane mind. >> more insight than one has into these crimes going on before and during. but not really the gold standard because the gold standard is what was actually inside his mind and what he wrote down is what he chose to write down. so therein lies the problem

somewhat and that's why there is going to be this court case and back and forth about what do we really have evidence for was going on in his mind at that time. >> thank you so much. >> my pleasure. five taliban leaders released from gitmo in exchange for bowe bergdahl. clock is ticking on their release from qatar. what it means for the obama administration. rick sanatorium announcing a second run for the white house this week. some are already calling his campaign doomed. this guy won 11 states in 2012. doesn't he deserve more respect? is getting relief. only nicorette mini has a patented fast-dissolving formula. it starts to relieve sudden cravings fast. i never know when i'll need relief. that's why i only choose nicorette mini. it's time to start living and driving like a winner. enter the quicken loans drive home a winner sweepstakes for your chance to win 12 mortgage-free months, courtesy of quicken loans and a 2015 chevy colorado.

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welcome back. tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of the transfer of five leaders in chaex inge for bowe bergdahl. the one-year aagreement for qatar to house and monitor them is now up. what could happen next? could they soon return to the

battlefield? let's bring in cnn pentagon correspondent barbara starr. barbara, i don't know if you remember cassidy and the sundance kid, but who are these guys? >> there is the question michael. what is going to happen to them? look, these are a number of top-level taliban operatives. they have been held at guantanamo bay until they were traded for that release last year to get bowe bergdahl back into u.s. hands. the titles these guys have. chief of intelligence ministry of interrier and top taliban official in communications. these are the kind of titles if you will that they are associated with. look clearly, they were top taliban operatives. the u.s. a lot of controversy about that. but people will tell you that they were going to be due for transfer out of guantanamo bay anyhow. these are not the top, top tier. these are not, you know the top

guys responsible for the 9/11 attacks. these are the kind of people that the u.s. is planning to transfer out anyhow so they did it in return for bowe bergdahl. very controversial. not insignificant players. but sooner or later the chances are they were going to get transferred out of guantanamo bay. >> what are the options the u.s. government and qatar are now considering? >> it's actually sort of a three-way potential situation. and the negotiations the discussions have been going along very quietly for months now we know. there are a couple of things on the table. some or all of the taliban five could remain in qatar. they could remain in the very strict monitoring that the qataris have promised to give them and have indeed given them over the last year. one or all could remain ain qatar and join up if you will with

an existing quasi- quasi-governmental or monitoring by the qataris or completely set free sent back to their families or sent back to afghanistan and the afghan government could take them into custody for their taliban activities. lots of things in play here and, of course as you remember michael, one of the five got himself into trouble because he was caught trying to communicate from qatar to taliban associates. that is something that was forbidden. >> was that the one you exclusively reported returned to violent activities? >> i would say here at the cnn pentagon team we did report it. did he return to violent activities? the intelligence community never really said that. multiple sources had told us that he had been in communication. phone, e-mail, with no taliban

associates. that was forbidden under the transfer agreement. you are not supposed to get back with those people. you can call your family members and you can complain. you can complain about how you were treated and complain about the united states and you can't call people up and engage in conversations that could lead to plotting or planning. there was a clear indication the intelligence community thought that is what was going on. >> barbara starr, thank you. let's get more now from the chair of the house foreign affairs committee congressman ed royce. barbara starr just made the observation that these five guys were to have been released anyway. we should be grateful that we were able to get bergdahl back in exchange for them. >> michael, the difficulty was the premise that we should have released the individuals who were what the deputy minister of intelligence. the deputy minister of defense of the taliban. a third individual that was very close to osama bin laden. a fourth who was involved in crimes against humanity.

and the fifth who likewise had been involved in killing many innocent people who were not taliban. four of the five by the way, are tied into al qaeda. it's not just taliban here. i think what's driving it is this impetus. they have a special envoy now in charge of closing guantanamo from their standpoint. from the administration standpoint. they're all going to be transferred out because they want to release all of them. whether that's prudent, especially under conditions where they have already been in contact or at least one has, you know with the terrorist networks. we're going to see these guys on the battlefield, again. >> would you have left bergdahl behind? >> well i think we should do what we can do to try to negotiate the release of our service members overseas. but the reality is you're looking at five individuals, four of whom were high-ranking in al qaeda. not just in the taliban.

and we've got the experience now that 30% have shown up back on the battlefield to try to kill americans. i don't think that was a good tradeoff. >> is your true of this transaction skewed by the fact that you believe then and believe now that burgergdahl was a desert deserter? >> my view of this is skewed or is patterned by my knowledge of what has been done of what to release these five but another six to urg guway from the documents i'd seen had ties to terrorism and the rationalization on the part of the administration. i think deep down that the only thing driving this is the impetus to close guantanamo bay and fulfill a campaign pledge and i just don't think in the face of the reality of what these individuals have done and will likely do again. in the case of uruguay we had 40

cases of them in proximity now to our embassy down there. in the case of these five that we talk about here in qatar, we've got ample evidence that they at least part of that element intend to return to the fight. and, so given the reality we're dealing with here and the fact that they've killed between them thousands and thousands of human beings. i don't think it's wise to release them. >> mr. chairman in the aftermath of september 11th i was of the throw away the key mindset. as the years have passed the attorney in me has become increasingly troubled by the fact that we're holding individuals there who have not been given the benefit of a trial. are you similarly concerned? >> well i think in these cases where you have individuals with ties to al qaeda, in an abundance of caution while this struggle is going on with al qaeda and they can continue to try to bomb us here in the

united states and carry out ongoing attacks against our allies it is rather foolish to take a personnel, let's take four of the five when you know they've had those ties and to release them especially given the background. here you have individual ss, deputy minister of defense for taliban. another is deputy intelligence chief for the taliban and between them have killed thousands of human beings and you release them. i think we know what's going to happen. it's going to cost american lives and the lives of our allies. >> but the alternative then i guess i'm saying look this conflict is not ending. i hope you live to be 150 and that i'm there to see it but i don't think this conflict is ending in either of our are we saying? we are going to keep you where people like you in gitmo and you're never even going to get a trial. >> this is a difficult situation. but in the past when we were

involved with foreign combatants in a situation of war whether it was the second world war or the first, they were held in captivity until after hostility ceased. why? because they had an allegeance. they had an allegiance to a foreign enemy that was at war with us. four of the five have an allegiance to al qaeda. the fifth has an allegiance you know to the taliban. the taliban has not laid down their arms. now, if we managed to negotiate that and they do then there's something to talk about in terms of perhaps releasing them or at least releasing them under conditions in which they are observed on an ongoing basis. but to release them with a one-year period after which they're going to go free to do what they want to do and travel where they want to travel while al qaeda is still carrying out a war with us and the taliban is still making war on the united states that is throwing caution to the wind and taking enormous

risks with our personnel, personnel and with our allies in the region. >> quick, final question if i might. >> yes. >> is there any congressional plan on this issue? anything that you as a member of congress can do. the chair of your committee your powerful committee? >> we're seeking documents right now in order to delve further into the release of some of these individuals who, obviously, have turned out to be an ongoing threat. and at the same time another step that we're trying to take is to block the closure of guantanamo because we think that's driving the release, the immediate release of these individuals who have a pattern of carrying out terrorist attacks against civilians and against u.s. military. >> chairman royce, thank you for your time. >> thank you very much michael. coming up three more candidates entering the 2016 presidential race. the gop field is now more crowded than ever. which of the republican candidates is the rodney dangerfield on that list? told myself for so long

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welcome back the ever-growing gop presidential field has added two more names. rick sanatorium and george pataki and today democrat martin o'malley announces his plans to run. lots to tackle on the political front. let's get right to it. joining me now nationally syndicated columnist and cnn political commentator s.e. cupp. rick santorum. the rodney dangerfield of the republican field. here's a guy who won 11 states. he was the runner up to mitt romney and you'd never know it from the way the media treats the field. >> he gets no respect, which is where you were going with that. and it really is kind of surprising when you consider that the last time not only was he the runner up but of the last three guys standing two were social conservatives, him and newt gingrich. the guy that ended up winning never really captured the excitement of the base.

so if you're rick santorum you have to think, okay this time around there is also room for a social conservative and now he's got to compete with mike huckabee ted cruz and he knows there is probably room for someone like him. he's just got to sort of clear the field and get through. so i think it's bizarre to dismiss last year's runner up as so many liberals and conservatives do. i think it's a mistake. >> ellis, chris christie seems to be checking all those boxes. he ditched common core this week. he spoke out against the president, visavy israel and what i'm thinking of is that you check all those boxes and that is great you appeal to the gop base and in the end you put yourself in a worse spot for a general election. >> you're absolutely right. it may not be the most furtm m fertile

territory for chris christie. i go back to the rule of fractions that i learned at holy name of jesus. when you have so many people in this race it doesn't take a very big slice to have the largest slice. so you can find that a lot of different places. the odd thing at the moment is that the super conservative side of the eequation is pretty crowded and that middle zone where chris christie would have normally have played is not so crowded. so frankly, i'm not so smart it is smart for him to outconserve the conservatives. >> jeb is the one who stand to gain from all of this. >> i think christie has a clear strategy as we're learning it. that is to take on the opposition and his party viavy and he can take on common core and that is a slap at jeb bush without saying his name. he can take on the president and israel and that's really actually a subtle slap at rand

paul without having to say his name. while the other gop contenders are really out there talking about hillary, chris christie is actually managing to talk about issues and the other contenders in i think, a way that is attempting to sort of clear the field and bring him back. >> ellis, with regard to rand paul as he's gotten into this race i have said that he is looking less and less like his father. that is until this week because this week rand paul blamed the gop hawks for the creation of isis. i'm wondering which rand paul are we really going to see as the race heats up? the libertarian champion or someone who feels obliged to attack a more traditional tone to the base? >> you trace the back and forth exactly right. we were expecting rand and we got ron. getting back to my fractions. there is nobody on that side of the equation. now, it's true the base isn't really there either. we don't really know how much of that kind of foreign policy

audience there is in the gop, but, i mean you've got to do something to stand out. so why not that? >> ellis, i mean the 88% of republican voters say terrorism is a big priority for their next president. so he might get like 5% of the ron paul newsletter subscribers. but this is really not, this is not smart. it's calling for anyone to suggest that an american party created isis. it's really galling for a republican running for president to say it. >> s.e., does the debate issue that is now lurking for the gop, what to do with all these candidates. an issue being faced by cnn, an issue that will be faced by fox in that first debate. does that pose a threat to retail politicking in new hampshire and in iowa? by that i mean we really allow those two states to vet our presidents, but it doesn't make sense if you're rick santorum to put on the sweater vest and

shake all those hands. you have to get on national tv and boost your numbers or you're not getting in the debate. >> the debate is all about name i.d. the theory there is to get out, make news give interviews and at least boost your name i.d. however, because there are so many in the field, the other side of the coin is you kind of want to do no harm until you absolutely have to because you know because of past experience when it's a crowded field like it was in 2012 some of these guys are going to crash and burn early. i mean just look at rick perry. everyone thought he was really going to go far and he poofed out pretty early. you have to walk a fine line between getting headlines and boosting name i.d. but not burning themselves too soon. >> ellis, on the republican side of the aisle, who is the last man or carly fiorina is a woman. the last people i'll say, standing. give me two or three names. >> john kasich is one i have been paying attention to. he is like jeb without the bush bag. i think he is someone who actually has some reasonable growth potential. i mean marco rubio has a good

story, he's an attractive guy, the generation is right. those are kind of the two that i'm looking at right now. >> s.e. who are the last individuals standing on the republican side of the aisle? >> i think we're going to have if i had to call it today a walker/rubio ticket. >> really? >> i was with scott walker a few weeks ago and i posed this idea to him. an idea that i thought was very novel and he kind of schukled and chuckled and said i heard that from a lot of people. that's where i see this. >> finally, have either of you read bernie sanders bizarre sex essay written when he was 30 years old? when i heard about it and read it if he was 13 14 okay. but he was 30 years old. no republican can get aaway with that have either of you read it or am i the only one? >> i'll make you a deal i won't make fun of his essay and you

don't read my early columns. >> s.e. you're taking a pass on it. you haven't read it. >> i read it. i have no desire to delve into the dark mind of bernie sanders from any decade. >> that's what socialism is who knows. >> thank you so much for being here. >> thanks. coming up the pope is coming to america. he's not running for president, but he may as well be. i'll tell you why he could frame the debates for the 2016 contenders. plus isis terrorists deadly path of destruction through iraq highlights a deeper problem in the country. will the war ever really end there? we'll talk about it. rywhere, the challenges of keeping everyone working together can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. with the tools and the network you need to make working as one easier than ever. virtually anywhere. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.

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defense secretary ashton carter spoke recently about the weak state of iraq's military the country's deep rooted turmoil that had efforts to build a military leaving it in other disarray. this despite u.s. efforts to train iraqi forces to better prepare themselves for the war against isis. much of the discord lies in the fact that the country does not exist as a unified state due in large part to a deep sectarian divide divide. let's get more on this from adam kissinger. he served in the air force in iraq and afghanistan and among the first members of congress to call for air strikes against congress. i'm starting a humty dumpty view of iraq. all the kings horses and men couldn't put humpty together again. is the answer partition? >> i don't think it is. a lot of problems with partition. number one, oil wealth is not spread uniformally through kurdish areas. you know there's a lot of

differences. you have obviously, some shia in sunni areas. i think partition is probably an overly simplified way of fixing a problem that would only really make it worse and you think about the fact too, other countries that are being held together and have different populations. what is that going to do any sectarian in those countries. i actually think the problem could end up being a lot worse. this is a lot '05 and '06 sitting around and saying in iraq there is no way to fix this problem. but at the end of the day, we did see some success when we added 20,000 troops yes, but it was mostly the engagement of the sunni population the diseffect of the sunni population. there is still a way to salvage it. again, every day that goes by and every shia person that commits viilous itolence it just makes that divide even greater. >> '05 and '06 where you have

isis taking credit for bombings outside of iraq and you have isis trying to govern and they have become the caliphate that they wish to be no? >> they are doing, in essence, what al qaeda did except now, again, it's projected, as you mentioned, outside of iraq. we're talking now into saudi arabia. potentially jordan now is looking at concerns. lebanon. this is a very big problem. that's why i think the answer to this is not, i mean a lot of things we need to do in iraq but i think we have to deal a devastating blow to isis somewhere because what's happening right now, you know kids who are in their parents' basement getting radicalized on the internet. they see running through a town and they want to do that for islam. if we show them that joining isis does not mean fighting for a cause, it means a good chance you'll die. people don't typically join causes to be martyrs. if they see that chance of martyrdom is very i think that's very imperative.

>> how personally difficult is it for you, having fought over there to see these isis gains of territory, that americans once thought to control in. >> it's devastating and frankly it's heartbreaking. just you know the iraqi people are really good people actually and they're folks just like our families just want to raise kids and kids have dreams and hopes of becoming something when they grow up. it's the same in iraq and to see this happening is devastating. >> thousands of soldiers gave their lives and i just had a small part of flying an airplane in iraq and doing what i could there. it's devastating to me and devastating frankly to the family who is gave up loved ones to bring this kind of freedom to iraq that unfortunately seems to be falling through their hands. >> did you see evidence of a lack of will on the part of the iraqis when were you there? >> i really didn't. it took a while to organize the iraqi military. we all understand we made mistake in disbanding the iraqi

military right after the invasion it seems like we put good leaders in place, we had sunni and shia leaders in place. and soldiers follow good leaders. think that's the untold story here. people say there's not a will of the iraqi military to fight. maybe that's true by and large. but the iraqi ground soldiers are out fighting. a lot of times they are running out of ammunition they see their leaders run awaugh. even the united states military if we saw our leaders run away it would be hard to stay together and continue the fight. thankfully we have great leaders and great officers. >> congressman kinsinger, thank you so much for coming on. pope francis could have a major impact on the outcome of the presidential race, i'll explain. the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with nine grams of protein... and 26 vitamins and minerals. and now with... ...twice as much vitamin d

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he's pro life conservative about climate change against same-sex marriage and an advocate for the poor. no he's not running for president, but this individual just might frame the debates for those who are. pope francis. the combination of his upcoming trip to america, his approval rating and his passion for certain issues is sure to have an impact on the candidates. after he visits latin america and cuba the pontiff comes to the united states. in september he'll visit washington, d.c. meet with president obama, address a joint meeting of congress. in new york city he'll visit the september 11th memorial finally in philadelphia he'll celebrate at an outdoor mass

where the crowds could reach more than a million. get ready for wall-to-wall coverage. not only in the cities that he visits but also around the world. and these events will unfold just as the summer has wound down and the presidential campaigns kick into high gear. the hope will arrive soon after the first debates. the candidates will listen to the pontiff knowing that he's almost as popular now as st. john paul ii who in the middle of his papacy was favored by 93% of american catholics. pope francis enjoys a 90% favor rating. even the vast majority of the nuns that's nones, 68%, they like him. no wonder that earlier this month, hillary clinton, a methodist tweeted at the pope in support of his call for equal pay for women. amen to this headline she wrote. among those who may be especially attentive to his holy

word are potential and declared presidential candidates who are catholic. while the pope remains steadfastly pro life and opposed to same-sex marriage the vatican by the way called ireland's vote for gay marriage a defeat for humanity the vatican is expected to release an encyclical by july where pope francis will address climate change and the poor. pope francis has publicly endorsed the idea that human activity has contributed to climate change and he addressed that capitalisms need to quote devour everything that stands in the way of increased profits. the pope is seen as a potential game-changer. this week one analyst told me on radio -- >> you can no longer box the catholic vote in a u.s. conservative box. you know here's the pope who is

going to release an encyclical on climate change and the poor. this is a guy who staunchly opposed to abortion. a guy who has not ceded ground on same-sex union. francis is just kind of breaking up this right/left box that we have. but i think especially his emphasis on social issues like poverty, like climate change yeah there's going to be some rethinking about what the catholic vote is going to look like. >> because of their monolithic nature catholics will be an important constituency in 2016. one quarter of 2012 voters were catholic. according to the pew research center barack obama received 54% of the catholic vote in 2008. that fell to 50% in 2012. pakistan hispanic catholics still backed obama in droves. 72% to 75% in 2012. how interesting that their leader while known for

doctrine is not himself doctrinaire. can you follow me on twitter if you can spell smerkonish. see you next week. new competition for hillary clinton. this hour former maryland governor one-time fitness reporter martin o'malley enters the race for the white house. a big question there, once two steps from the oval office now under indictment. former house speaker dennis hastert at the center of a sexual abuse allegation. plus where is natalee holloway? for ten years no one has been able to answer that question. now cnn talks to one man who says he knows. so