time for us this morning. >> inside politics with john king starts right now. >> go make some good memories. president obama suffers a huge defeat in congress. because of a revolt by fellow democrats. >> we want a better deal for america's workers. >> plus hillary clinton stages a big rally to outline her big reason for running. >> america can't succeed unless you succeed. that is why i am running for president of the united states. >> will the democratic divide over trade in iraq hurt the president's legacy and complicate clinton's white house run? >> hillary! hillary! >> and jeb bush makes it official. >> i think candidates have a duty to persuade. that's what this is about.

>> the early gop favorite insists he has time to get his struggling 2016 bid back on track. "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters, now. welcome to "inside politics" i'm john king. thanks for sharing your sunday morning with us. peter bake of "the new york times." the atlantic's molly ball and jackie of the daily beast. hillary clinton made her case yesterday to be the next president at new york's roosevelt island. jeb bush will make his case tomorrow in miami. and it's an understatement to say the least to say the florida governor at the moment anyway has many more obstacles in his presidential path than the former secretary of state. a deeper look at the bush and at bush and the republican race but first the new clinton pitch and how a stunning rebuke of her former boss, president obama might complicate democratic party politics and secretary clinton's play it safe strategy. >> prosperity can't be just for

ceos and hedge fund managers, democracy can't be just for billionaires, and corporations. america can't succeed unless you succeed. that is why i am running for president of the united states. >> molly ball you were at this rally talked to some of those on hand after. the optics were good. she was already in the race officially but this is the raison d'etre. what did you think? >> it was not as big a crowd as it looked on tv. the campaign said it was about 5,000 people. it was surprisingly modest. i thought they might use this opportunity to prove they could draw a big crowd but they didn't and there was an overflow area with no one in it. so there were not that many people on hand. it looked nice. it was a glorious day in new york. the speech itself i found really flat. it was just sort of a list of proposals. again, there was an opportunity here for her to really go for

the big moment. the soaring rhetoric. the big idea. and instead, you know, i thought it was very revealing that she contrasted roosevelt's four freedoms which are big abstractions. freedom from want. freedom from fear. for her it's four fights, jargon laden nitty-gritty lists of policy. one of the fights is we're going to help families with worker friendly policies like paid sick leave and minimum wage and it goes on and on. so you know there's a lot of substance here. there's a lot to excite the democratic base. there's also some very careful words missing in those passages that you just played where she is not actually going up against billionaires and corporations. she's just saying that if they get good things, other people should get good things, too. so some on the left felt a little bit queasy about that. she wasn't really willing to stick it to the rich and powerful. >> i was trying to figure out who is she? that is the question. how has she changed? and the speech was a little bit bill clinton. i'm on your side. i will fight for you in this

economy. she did try to borrow some saying i'll take on the big guy. >> a pretty safe speech i thought. nothing terribly daring there for the country, for where the democratic party is in 2015. and you can kind of see what the campaign's going to be like. she'll try to squeeze the republicans on some of these cultural war wedges and on economics be populist-ish and go after them. but you're not going to be sort of warren style. and then on foreign policy you know, i was there for the bin laden capture. i'm proud to serve the president. but let's move on, right? >> pretty short on the foreign policy which i thought was interesting. one of the things we talked about a little bit before is she's checking the boxes of the obama coalition. believing if she can keep the demographics together she's also impossible to beat. also shows she's pretty confident she will be the democratic nominee. she talked about health care. she talked about other issues that she thinks helps her and put pressure on the republicans. >> they shame and blame women, rather than respect our right to make our own reproductive health

decisions. they want to put immigrants, who work hard and pay taxes, at risk of deportation. and they turn their backs on gay people who love each other. >> and she also said a little play on marco rubio's she's yesterday, i'll be the youngest woman president ever elected. clever but. >> and apparently she heard that from a supporter in south carolina, i believe, so she's showing that her listening to her actually paid some dive denlds. but, yeah, i think that, yeah, she is trying to keep this coalition. romney lost women by a huge margin. he also lost hispanics. if she keeps up with this rhetoric she's hoping they stay to the. but she's going to be attacked on her closeness to obama. she's going to be attacked on the fact that she never took a position on this trade bill that's been a huge problem for obama. so i think there's still openings there but she's trying to narrow down these coalitions that obama won huge margins in

the last election. >> and bring the context into that. this was a tough week for the president. the president loses a big fight in trade on capitol hill and she's running for president and she's been very vague. she says trade can be good. it can be bad. i need to see the details. the president is sending more at vice remembers into iraq and you have charlie rangel saying that's how vietnam started. i assume if you're hillary clinton and you remember 2008 number one you have people pushing her to be clear what you think about trade. big economic issue. but number two, do you really want to start to be wondering through iowa when one of the big debates in the country is how much troops should we put in ru iraq? >> in some ways this is a state of the union address. what she left sought just as interesting. she does not want to wade into the biggest fight among democrats which is basically what do we do about economics? where do we stand on trade? her husband pushed through nafta the last big trade agreement in the 1990s. 100 democrats voted for it at the time. on friday, only 28 democrats. voted for president obama actually more frankly than some

people even expected. still lost, because they didn't pass the whole thing. and she has said nothing basically about where she stands on that at this point. she's going to take some hits for that. but she should feel like the damage of wading into that is even more risky. >> i think what unifies democrats now is culture. i think that's why you saw her so aggressive on those issues. that's what unifies them. squeezes the other side. it's a huge sea change in person politics. they're the ones using politics as a cudgel against the gop. it was always the opposite. the policy is much more divided with economics and foreign policy. >> and if the president is losing, once a president starts to lose in the lame duck consideration starts in washington go back to 2006 and george w. bush once you get to the point then your party's disagreements which if you have a president sometimes you can keep the genie trapped in the bottle, if democrats are going to be out there and you have bernie sanders saying what do you think about trade? you know they're going to be running around iowa saying we

don't need troops in iraq. how much does that complicate where the president stands now in his struggles, assuming he can't get his own party back, how does that affect her? >> well, i think you're seeing partly, you know, president obama reaping what he's sown with congress or failing to reap what he failed to sow the fact that he's never been close to democrats in congress and never cultivated those relationships which democrats have been complaining about for six, seven years now. but which is true -- >> democrats even sometimes more than republicans. that the president hasn't tried. >> so there's a remarkable lack of beholdenness, lack of loyalty to the president that they teal. they don't feel that he's been there with them. and i think you're going to hear from hillary a part of her argument that hasn't gotten as much attention that she can make washington work again. because, in order to get any of these things done, she's going to have a republican congress almost inevitably. and she's tried to make a case that subtly criticizes obama y saying she's the one who can get people to work together in a way

that he hasn't. that becomes a harder case to make the more you see these divisions. the more you see that the president can't even get his own party on board, much less get anything done -- >> she's also describing an america that we don't want. america shouldn't be this. it should be that. it shouldn't be this, it should be that. that's what a nonincumbent tends to do or nonincumbent party tenzs to do. in some ways she's running against obama's america. where a country of unequality of screwed up campaign finance and there's an implicit critique in there as welch like john mccain in 2008 runs an ad saying we're worse off than we were four years ago even though it was a republican administration in effect trying to distance himself and saying i can be a change -- >> can she get away with that is the question in the sense that it's going to anger the white house when she says things like that but they sort of already accepted her as the incumbent. they get mad when she says this but can bernie sanders martin o'malley or lincoln chafee or anybody else take enough advantage of that not to draw a crowd in iowa but to draw the votes to knock her off? >> they need to. that is what they are there for.

they are there to move her to the left. otherwise she has no reason to move to the left. >> moving her to the left and beating her are two different things. >> very true. it's how much enthusiasm they can whip up from that liberal base to get them out to vote for them. and that is the question of whether they can really harness that anger. >> the best of them have -- bernie sanders and martin o'malley are running. if you assume there's a sort of ceiling of anybody but clinton democratic primary voters well if those are split between two or three different candidates that's great news for the clinton folks. >> we'll watch as this plays out. next how did jeb bush go from the early fave to the big question mark. politicians say and do the darnedest things. watch here republican senator and presidential candidate lindsey graham provides some scattershot commentary. >> i'm not so sure this is a good idea to give me a gun before 7:00. where's the local hospital at? all right, pull!

that was a good tip. you want to come work for the government? you want to be secretary of defense? >> i hope the iranians and the iraqis are watching that. low and to the left. >> we're conservatives. >> that is center right. >> i'm more bipartisan than you are. it's time to bid farewell... to this booking incredible island resort. and it's incredible island staff. (father:) i can't imagine life without them.

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has a giant campaign war chest and shares a name that rivals the adamss and kennedys in political history. why is running for president proving to be such a steep hill for jeb bush. right around christmas last year on facebook i've decided to actively explore the possibility of running that from jeb bush what happened? immediately to the top of the pack in the republican field. remember that number, 23% back at the end of last year. now, oh, well. dropped ten points, 13%. jeb bush nationally in the middle of the pack near the top but in a cluster of republican candidates. why did this happen? well for starters he's at odds with most of his party on immigration. he supports the common core education standards. a lot of base republicans don't like that plus there's what i'll call the "w" question. >> obviously very controversial. knowing what we know now, would you have authorized the invasion? >> i would have. >> i would have. that's what he said then, five days later, cleanup. >> we're all supposed to answer

hypothetical questions knowing what we know now what would you have done? i would have not engaged, i would not have gone in to iraq. >> there's the cleanup there from jeb bush. jonathan martin as he gets into the race officially tomorrow what's the biggest challenge for jeb? is it ideology? is it that last name? >> i think it's more of a perception challenge. there's this perception that he is somehow not a real conservative. and i think that even more than the common core and the immigration issues, it's a perception that oh, he's not really on our side. and i think that's what he's got to really push back against. i think that's why he's going to be so focused on his record as governor of florida. the key question is, ten years later, do primary voters care about what he did? and i think the election will turn on that is, you know, is that going to be enough? you know some of his rivals say that's great but he hasn't been in the game for the obama year. he hasn't been here fighting these fights. i think that's going to be a challenge for him. >> he's been off the bike for a long time.

to his credit we criticize politicians when they flip-flop or waffle he says i'm not going to change my views on immigration, and education, i'm going to convince people i'm right. >> i respect people that may not agree with me but i'm not going to change my views because today someone has a view that's different. i think candidates have a duty to persuade. >> i guess good for him. but can he convince republicans -- can he do well enough in iowa and get to new hampshire where most people think he needs to win by telling the republican base, i think you're wrong? >> by telling them. that's the problem. there is this one of the knocks on jeb is that he lectures. is that he tells people this is the right way. you're welcome. and i think he needs to figure out how to do that in a way that, this is my belief. you can believe what you want to believe. you cannot vote for me. but right now, if he's lecturing them, they do not like that whatsoever. >> another interesting thing that comes up when you talk to conservatives. they disagree on immigration. the supreme court's going to be in the news a lot, we're going to get a same-sex marriage

ruling, an obamacare ruling. conservatives say dad gave us david souter, brother gave us john roberts who said obamacare is okay. how does he get through this with conservatives or plow through it and get to more moderate states? >> it's a good question because the supreme court has two big things to care about. one is health care and looking at weather some screwed up wording in the bill will invalidate subsidies in dozens of states. and then the other thing, same-sex marriage. many conservatives, many politicians are hoping the supreme court doesn't invalidate this part of the health care law because -- >> then they have to do something about it. >> and they're not really thrilled about that. they can't repeal it. but they don't want to have to try to fix it. same-sex marriage they want to say you take care of it, we don't want to talk about it. that ruling comes and goes. and then by august everybody will have moved on. >> who is jeb bush in this field as he gets in? he wanted to be the conservative governor to jonathan's point. scott walker has taken that space early on. he wants to be the establishment favorite. at the moment you'd have to say

maybe he is or at least he's near the top of the pack. he's got chris christie who says i'm not going anywhere even though a lot of republicans have doubts. john kasich who might get into the race. marco rubio who showed up at the romney primary this past weekend and tried to say i'm the next generation by wearing his little gym shorts and playing flag football or touch football. where is jeb bush's base or how does he get it back? >> this is a perception problem and i agree with that. i think it's also a morance problem. and i don't think it's as much about policy and specific stances as it is about the fact that you know on paper, he looked great in a lot of ways. he had that support from about a quarter of the party right out of the gate. then he went out there and started performing and people were just not impressed. this is a guy who is rusty. whose political skills were never incredible to begin with. and who has seemed to sort of have a stubbornness about his willingness so just sort of go out and schmooze people and wow people and perform in this dancing monkey way that you have to do as a politician.

nobody enjoys it. but you've got to do it. you've got to sort of suck it up. and so i think there's just a sense that he's not that good at this. and i think that that's -- conservatives want all these policy stances. but they also really want to win. republicans are very focused on electability. and i think what's given them more pause than anything are some of the general election polls that show that people don't want to foet for a bush. it's that queasyness. they don't want to compromise everything else to go for jeb if jeb is going to lose the general election. >> i think that iraq question. >> we'll watch jeb bush's speech tomorrow up next our reporters get you out ahead of the big political news just around the corner including the end of a meaningless yet very influential political tradition in iowa. i've smoked a lot and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose nicoderm cq.

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around the inside politics table ask our great reporters to share a secret in their note books. >> you'll remember carl de mayo a candidate for congress in san diego he lost to scott peters after his campaign was he can railed by allegations of sexual misconduct from a former campaign worker. now this campaign worker has pled guilty to obstruction of justice saying he lied about some of the e-mails he fabricated some of the e-mails that really bolstered his case. so i spoke to carl de mayo yesterday. he's very angry about this and he's looking at this as evidence that he's been telling the truth this whole time and none of this happened. and he blamed peter's campaign.

peter's called me. he said they had nothing to do with it and noted that the allegations that this guy didn't recant his allegations. so this is just a nasty campaign that continues to be nasty, seven months out and de mayo says he's done with politics for quite awhile. >> we'll see if he tries to come back. jonathan? >> florida, florida, florida. the key swing state in american politics looms large once again in 2016. and the primary this time around. for jeb bush who launches his campaign tomorrow florida say sword and a shield. it lets him go on the offensive against some of his rivals who don't have the same record that he piled up when he was governor in tallahassee. the senators notably come to mind. it's a shield because it lets him sort of repel the attacks from the conservatives who are going to say he's not really a conservative. he's kind of a plosate moderate because he can point to that record in tallahassee. finally it's critical because they have that primary on march 15th. you talk to the bush folks, the

marco folks, and both of them say whoever comes out of that primary on top probably goes forward, the loser goes home or stays home, because both of them are in florida. >> holly? >> hillary having reannounced her campaign is now off to the early states, iowa, new hampshire, nevada, and one thing that we're going to see different from her this time this tour is that she's going to start doing a lot of local press interviews her campaign is saying. this whole time they've pretended that they basically don't care about the criticism but this is a signal they have taken that to heart they're trying to rebut that perception. unclear if this current round is going to staunch that criticism. >> detente is not peace perhaps with the press. peter? >> on tuesday the president hosts at the white house the president of south korea now normally we wouldn't think that was such a big deal except that comes at the very moment he's going to be trying to revive this trade deal we've been talking about. why does south korea matter? they're not part of this

twelve-nation trade partnership pack that she's trying to negotiate. they want in. the democrats on the hill who are against this have been using south korea as an example of why we shouldn't get in to this, because the last trade deal we did with south korea worked out for south korea and knot for us. >> bad timing. trying to sell that on the hill. the iowa republican party canceled its summer presidential straw poll. my favorite response came from a republican operative. ding dong the witch is dead, he wrote. will a summer without the straw poll matter? most likely yes. just ask lamar alexander. the straw poll was a fund-raising gimmick with no official meaning yet it almost always managed to shake up the gop race. in effect the straw poll gave iowa republicans the first two chances to win in the republican field. now iowa will get just one bite at that apple. the iowa republican party will miss the money. political reporters will certainly miss the circus. but the process should gain from this decision. that's it for "inside politics."

we'll see you soon. a special hour just ahead, "state of the union" with new host jake tapper starts right now. hillary clinton makes the case for moving back in to the white house. >> i've been called many things by many people. quitter is not one of them. >> as she swaps her low key scooby van for a massive rally in new york city. bill didn't take the mike but he had plenty to say to us. defending hillary as americans question her trustworthiness. >> i trust her with my life. >> and rating her republican rivals. >> well, they got a lot of youth, they've got a lot of energy, they've got some significant diversity. and they're no dummies. >> plus jeb bush makes it official tomorrow. but first he faces our questions about his shaky start. and the baggage that comes with that last name.