tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN July 19, 2015 10:00am-11:01am PDT
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there might be something poetic of replacing andrew jackson with sacagawea. on the $100,000 bill was woodrow wilson. he was a nasty racist. let's put alice faulk on that bill. we love benjamin franklin he gets plenty of love. what if sojourner troof were to be on the 100s. it's all about the josojourners baby. gps starts right now. >> this is gps, the global public square. for all of you around the world. >> every pathway to a nuclear
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weapon is cutoff. >> on today's show breakthrough with iran. the west and the islamic republic finally reach an agreement on the nuclear program. the question remains, is iran really ready to come in from the cold? i have a perfect panel to discuss it. >> also other big deal of the week. they tell us why the new deal is terrible for greece and europe. and a drug lord a brazen escape while under the watchful eye of authorities and now questions about who is responsible. the incredible story of el
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chappo. >> here's my take. in selling the nuclear deal with iran the obama administration has been careful to point out that it's just an agreement on nuclear issues. the deal solves one particular problem president obama explains in his news conference on wednesday. supporters and critics are quick to suggest that this move is quite different from richard nixon's opening to china which transformed china and the relations with the world. iran is a rogue regime that chants death to america and funds annual american terror across the mideast. let's recall what china looked like at the time henry kissinger went in july 1971. he was without question the most radical anti-american leader in the world at the time supporting violent guerilla groups across
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asia and beyond. beijing was the principal supporter, sending them funs to fight and kill soldiers every day. the opening to china changed none of it. during the talks, the chinese premier, they refused to end their support for the north vietnamese regime. while nixon and kissinger were talking, the shipment of arms to north vietnam were increasing as documented in the book by the historian. and just as we are told today that there was a mythical better deal to be had with iran conservative nixon administration for selling out taiwan blaming and rather than handing over to beijing, washington could have done more to arrange a dual seat arrangement.
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overtime china did slow down the support for revolutionary movements in countries like indonesia and malaysia and thailand and burma. the relations with vietnam soured for many reasons and certainly the opening was one of them. these finally led to a wholesale rethinking of china's foreign tell us. only seven years after the meetings under a new chinese leader who first consolidated power and broke with his revolutionary world view. on iran let's make several caveats. china's move was fuelled by the split with the soviet union and perhaps the people's republic total isolation. they face no such security and as an oil producing country that gets tens of billions in revenues and it has never been isolated or destitute. iran clearly resents being
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treated as a pariah in the world. they demonstrated that frustration and a new set of leader who is have some influence and not complete control wants to restore iran to a more normal status. will that mean if tehran's policies will moderate? they suggest as countries get more integrated into the world, they have fewer incentives to be spoilers and more to maintain stability. iran will follow the national interests and sometimes these will conflict with americans sharply. on america's most pressing challenges the threat from isis stability of iraq and afghanistan, iran and the united states actually have overlapping interests. the sectarian war in the mideast, one being fuelled by sunnis as well as shias will continue but finally they can talk to both sides of this
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divide and bring a reduction in change. they have it in cuba or burma. if there is greater commerce and capitalism between iran and the rest of the world, surely this will be gradually em powering the iranians that see the destiny as part of the modern world, mocking opposition to it. go to cnn.com/fareed. let's get started. >> you just heard my take on the deal. let's bring in other important opinions to answer questions like is iran really ready to come in from the cold? robin had a terrific piece in
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next week's new yorker. she a long time journalist who is a distinguished scholar at the wilson center. the former state department official now dean of the school of advanced international studies at johns hopkins. the pulitzer prize winner for the "wall street journal." in your long essay, you talk about saying iran is a mid-life crisis. in that mid-life crisis, what does this deal doing? it seems like the people celebrating the deal are young urban people who at least have meetings with them in iran and they seemed very pro american desperate for a connection with the world. >> i think one of the reasons they came to the negotiating table was with their own environment. not just the international sanctions or the horrific
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mismanagement by the previous president. there was a recognition that the majority of people and the voters in iran today were born after the revolution. they want to be part of the 21st century and acclimated despite the censorship and repression. they wanted to integrate and after 36 years, they are into that phase of the revolution where they are struggling to be a normal state again. they are not there yet and may have a long way to go but we have to see what's happening beyond just the transaction over a single nuclear issue. it's really about transformation of a revolution at a particularly sensitive moment in history. >> iran had a mid-crisis and they put their leaders in jail. they are still under house arrest. it's good that the iranian people are eager for a deal but
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we are not dealing with an iran iranian people but a regime that believes that winning regional and internationally on many fronts is getting rid of the shackles of sanctions through the nuclear negotiations. it's advancing the aims throughout the region. the manager who will appoint the next leader who recently appointed a mandate known as an ultra hard liner. that's not confusion the iranian people and what they want with a regime we just struck. >> i want to ask you about if there were a shift in iran and a moderation or a softening and it's a big if what do you think that would translate into in policies in the mideast. it strikes me that iran and the united states have overlapping interest in afghanistan. for example, we both don't like the taliban. in iraq and syria, we don't like
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isis. >> absolutely. if you look at iran's major headache in the region it's isis. they are saying in syria and iraq and that will preoccupy them. i don't think that iran is right now standing ten feet tall and ready to take over the region. they are in a defensive mode. that might be one reason why they wanted to steal. now that they have been able to negotiate with the united states on the most difficult issue, it's much easier for them to meet with the united states and to have a casual conversation and a serious conversation about a variety of issues. the key is iraq. it's clear that the only country in the middle east that is willing to produce and fight in iraq is iran. ultimately there is a convergent of interest. the question is where do they pick up the trend and can they have yet another small win on
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top of this one and sustain the momentum? >> the interesting thing is they have begun to talk about how they can deal with the united states on issues. it's striking the language over the last week. even as they run up to the deal and the fact that the supreme leader right after the framework was announced in april and came out and said if we are successful in negotiations on a nuclear deal with the united states and other issues the leader who once everyone had anti-americanism in his dna, this was a striking moment. it is important for proliferation to join the nuclear club and pakistan and india and israel and north korea. diplomacy failed to prevent phlegm joining the nuclear club. >> it's especially to act. this deal is in a period when a
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lot of people thought the sunshine policy with korea could achieve diplomatic results where pressure had failed. we know how the north korean story was. it's important not to get carried away with the notion that we have all these interests that we share with the supreme leader. they reported that iran continues to support elements within the taliban. not a nice guy. hezbollah, hamas and israel. they are the key allies in the region. we should be careful in risking those alliances and that trust for the same of hoping at some point in the future that iran will become in 10 or 15 years's time what china became in the transition. that's a classic hope with
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experience. >> we shouldn't throw away our alliances, but we have to think of this with the interest in this this region. our interests and the russian interest is extremism in isis. none of the allies in the region are interested or engaged in the fight against isis. that's a fight. if isis continues to be a threat to europe or the united states by default the only region engaged in fighting isis is iran. this is a classic case of real politics rather than being naive about it. >> we shouldn't let the euphoria of the moment shape our thinking of what iran wants. it is the most destabilizing force from the american perspective in the region. it is funding all the groups opposed to israel. its hand is -- >> it is funding all the groups opposed to isis. right now the so-called shia
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militia that iran is funding in iraq and syria are the principal force on the ground against isis. >> absolutely. >> isis is going to take to more territory. >> one of the other reasons is because they understood that the middle east map is crumbling. two of the countries that are most interested in keeping it as it is today are iran and the united states. >> when we come back we will talk about what iran might do with the windfall. when we come back. i am totally blind. and sometimes i struggle to sleep at night, and stay awake during the day. this is called non-24. learn more by calling 844-824-2424. or visit your24info.com. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count.
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is the regime going to take all this money and give it to hezbollah? >> it may well. who knows if it's $100 million, but it's a lot of money. all of the interventions they had, they are an enormous help against israel. they funned at the hardest times of economic hardship. that money has always been available. they want to be players in the region. it is larger than all the gulf countries combined. it feels vulnerable because it feels that the sunni who is dominate the region and the islamic world are surrounding them whether it's the taliban, isis and other forces. the saudis have not been shy in opposing them either. this is trying to get back to what they think is the right place in the region. we could argue or say it's kind of traditional historic place in the region. it is one of the most stable
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states in the region today. >> it's striking if you look at the mideast today, the most successful countries in the mideast are iran turkey and israel. i especially they are dominating the new mideast. >> we think iran came to the table because of the pressure of sanctions. that means that the first place they have to put the money is to relieve political pressure. if the assumption is political pressure that's where the money will go. you look at the mideast, iran even in the new budget has allotments to the defense. it is less in absolute terms than all of the neighbor who is have much more technologically advanced weapons. they are watching. to them this may be about an arms race and not a conventional
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arms race. the saudis are sending a powerful signal to go to weaponry and we will get more of them to them as compenstion. >> this is why one of the consequences of this deal i suspect is going to prefer to tamp down. whatever you think is the rational course the saudis will not take this lying down. you heart the prince saying whatever a deal gets to the iranians we will want to get the same. i think the saudi response was not just concern about what was happening on their southwestern flank, but also a reflection of the broader concern that iran was as you spelled out, becoming the dominant player in the neighborhood. as a result you are going to see more radicalism and more regional confrontation as a consequence and not just a proliferation than if you
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extracted the upper terms or walked away from the agreement. >> at the same time while this is the case if they're going to spend the money for military they are going to fight the sunni radicals. that's the priority. even hezbollah is fighting against isis. they will put money in but that's to capture mosul and to build a wall that isis cannot cross into baghdad and to save the outside regime and to fight isis on the borders of lebanon. this is the decision that they made which is to preserve the equities in syria and in iraq. >> and establish shiites. >> no but what they are fighting we can't get in the middle of this. >> you either want isis defeated or you don't. >> i don't want them defeated for the benefit of the iranians. >> you have the last word. >> this is a moment that we should hope something comes out of it. a lot of challenges ahead. it will be interesting to see
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the politics play out in congress and the parliament. >> next on gps, how in the world did mexico lose the most important inmate? we will definitely into the incredible story when we come back. we wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. you can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesn't happen. at the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. people can see better when they're out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. and folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40% of the lights were out, but they're not out for long.they're coming back.
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osama bin laden was killed in pakistan in 2011. a man named joaquin guzman or el chapo became the number one. he was caught and put in a mexican prison in 1993. but then escaped in a laundry cart in 2001. el chapo was caught again in 2014 in mazatlan and eric holder called it a landmark achievement, a victory for the citizens of mexico and the united states. guzman was indicted all-around the u.s. and after the arrest officials say he be extradited north of the border where he can be locked up more securely.
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but that never happened and of course guzman escaped again from a mexican jail cell even though the cell was under surveillance. he used a blind spot in the field of view to conceal his drop here into an elaborately constructed motorcycle track. my next guest had a great long read for the new yorker called the hunt for el chappo. welcome. >> thanks for having me. the prison he was in in central mexico established a no-fly zone over the prison so there was no chance he could get out through helicopters. it was an area where they jammed all cell phones. >> the story that has you
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shaking your head. this was the most secure facility and he was the most famous inmate inside. the guy who escaped before and who the u.s. authorities had information and was planning on perhaps escaping again and they had informed their counterparts that he might try to escape. it's extraordinary to think he escaped not only by climbing over a wall but by constructinga i mile long tunnel underground and a feat that would involve engineers, surveyors and a great deal of labor. >> the tunnel comes up in his cell in the bathroom right at the drain. the 20 inch by 20 inch drain. all of had leaves 1 to feel like this is not just a feat of engineering, but fundamentally about bribery and corruption. is it not in. >> absolutely.
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no question. the amount of resources and the suggestion that we now have and the rukz on the kunle began early last year. shortly after he was first locked up in the prison in the first instance. they were working on it for a long time. it's climate control and they found a dead bird and he used it like a ka area tow send it down and find out if he could breathe the air down there and survive. the suggestion here i think is that you will find complicity of people outside the prison, but inside and i would think in the mexican government. the last time he escaped from prison after that escape it emerged that he had much of the prison on his payroll when he was an inmate and criminal changes were brought against 71 different people who worked at the prison leading the warden.
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>> do you think it extends beyond the prison within the mexican government? >> no question that that's the case. it's an open question whether we find that to be proven in a satisfying way. already the warden of the prison now has been fired, but i think there is real questions about whether or not you will see scapegoats who will be dismissed, but in the a thorough investigation of much higher level in the administration. >> why is it so hard to handle this type of corruption associated with drugs. the previous president made a big deal of the fact that he was taking the war to the drug cartel s. he tried his own approach. what would it take for things to
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change? >> it would take a great deal and you have to see a slow unwinding of a culture that is set in over decades. what concerns me as the way we talk about this we talk about it like we need to remember the cross boarder is a market. we are the demand for this. i talked to people who worked in this cartel and they will tell you that only half of the job is figuring out how to get drugs into the united states. the other half is figuring out how to take the billions of dollars they make and coming from americas and getting them back out and into mexico and laundering them. the biggest importer happened to
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be neighbors. >> do you think that because they warned them, is this going to sour relations and corporations? from the moment this guy was captured it was a triumph and no one thought this would happen almost immediately, a fight began over whether or not he would be extradited. you had the department of justice in the u.s. saying look he got away last time. we don't trust to you hold him. why don't you bring him here. mexico is saying for reasons that make a lot of sense, most of the crimes were committed here and we captured him here. we are not just going to give him up. what we see is that a lot of these officials were overconphi
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dend about the ability to hold on to someone who has the money and the yeanuous to really stymie them. >> thank you so much. >> thank you. >> greece and the eu came to a deal. everyone is happy, right? wrong. find out why. i am ready. because today there's harvoni. a revolutionary treatment for the most common type of chronic hepatitis c. harvoni is proven to cure up to 99% of patients... ...who've had no prior treatment. it's the one and only cure that's... ...one pill, once a day for 12 weeks. certain patients... ...can be cured with just 8 weeks of harvoni. with harvoni there's no interferon and there are no complex regimens. tell your doctor if you have other liver or kidney problems or other medical conditions. and about all the medicines you take including herbal supplements.
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streets. the former finance minster said what the greeks agreed to was fiscal and my next guest called the deal a ritual humiliation for greece. he is a price winning economist. thanks for being on. lots of people believe that the greek crisis is over. you don't think so? >> no. really nothing has changed and that wasn't working and has never worked in this situation. all that happened is we got applause for the moment and i'm not even sure of that. it's amazing and we are by no means out of the woods. >> on last week's show you said that huh responsibility because
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you advocated that the prime minister of greece vote no to support the no proposition on the referendum and in a sense defying the creditors. the result is that he got worse terms. do you think that's fair? it didn't occur to me that they would be prepared to stand without having done any contingency plan. >> you assumed that greece had an exit plan. amazingly they were everything they thought they could simply back up the plans. in a sense it's hopeless in any case. it's not as if the terms they were being offered before were
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feasible. the new terms are worse, but the terms they are being offered before are not going to work. it's hopeless regardless. >> what are does it mean in terms of where is it going to end? are they going to have to exit the euro? >> my guess is nothing can be certain, but my guess is yes. it's either in the end they will get this that they are not getting or they will have to exit. my money is on exit one way or >> would that cause a crisis because the germans seem convinced that at this point all that debt is on the balance sheet of the central banks and not private banks. it won't have that cascade that
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lehman has. >> that's right. we do not see that kind of crisis. even the lehman event would not cause that because there has been a lot of buffers that have been put up. that doesn't mean that a greek exit is trivial. they would have huge implications for the future of the european project and if greece exits and starts to recover which it probably would, that in turn would be the encouragement for political movements to challenge the euro. this is not trivial. we are not talking about 2008 all over again. >> this is the general view of the business community say the truth of the matter is the fundamental problem is greece is massively uncompetitive and highly overregulated. if you look at pharmacy and the greek economy, it's too many
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regulations and very business unfriendly and a swiss cheese-like model of tax collect. if you don't reform that the germans are asking for more than austerity. >> the one about tax collection while it's true are a lot of holes and evasion. greece does manage to collect a lot of taxes. people say they can't be collecting money. they are collecting a lot. it's not as if they don't manage to raise revenue. they should. as for the other stuff, greece is an overregulated problematic economy and not as much as it was. it has done much more than it thinks. >> structural reform. not as much as the budgets. >> the doing business and it's not a great place. all of these things were true of
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greece but greece was not in the midst of a great depression level slump. so these are part of the background noise. they are responsible for the disaster that is taking place now. it's like looking at the problems. it may be more than some but the euro is responsible for this disaster. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> up next waves and waves have been washing up on europe's shores. millions have fled from syria alone. why are the world's refugees streaming across borders in numbers not seen since world war ii? i have two top experts with me when we come back. and a partnership with hp can help you accelerate down a path created by people, technology and ideas.
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flo: hey, big guy. i heard you lost a close one today. look, jamie, maybe we weren't the lowest rate this time. but when you show people their progressive direct rate and our competitors' rates you can't win them all. the important part is, you helped them save. thanks, flo. okay, let's go get you an ice cream cone, champ. with sprinkles? sprinkles are for winners. i understand.
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>> last year the number of people who had been forced to leave their homes across the world reached 60 million. that's a population the size of italy, the world's 23rd largest nation. 42,500 new people on average every day in 2014. forced out because of persecution of islands according to the mission for refugees. about 20 million of those had to leave their own nations and flee to another and 40 million of them had to move within their own nation. the problem is today is worse than at any time since world war ii ii. david is the former foreign secretary of the united kingdom and now the president and ceo of the international rescue committee. nicholas kristoff is the two-time pulitzer prize winning columnist just back from sudan.
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welcome. nick why is this happening? at some level, you look at the world and there no major wars taking place among states. it feels like a world of relative stability suddenly compared to the cold war. i think in parts that's a reflection of the decline of the cold war, you no longer have patrons who are determined to keep this state functioning because it's a pawn in a larger game. now, if the pawn collapses into a failed state, nobody much cares. >> have you been surprised, david, i certainly have, how fragile it turns out that political order is in so many of these places, that it's not so
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much the kind of government, but just the degree of government that turns out to be very, very difficult to maintain, libya after gadhafi, iraq after sudan. all these places turn out to be very fragile and little underneath them. >> not surprising when you see a country like niger has an average income of $1.00 a day. five coups in the course of the 1990s. massive climate change and now it's got nigeria exploding on one border and mali on the other border. this dual problem of weak states and a weak international system is coming together to create this really world on fire in about 30 countries, 30 to 35 fragile states that cannot contain ethnic and political and religious difference within peaceful boundaries and don't have the anchor of an international order to hold the ring.
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i think globalization, far from homogenizing global culture, is going with an assertion of local ethnic religious identity. that's what we're seeing in these fragile states. the assertion of this identity is overwhelming the sources trying to hold the ring for politics. in a situation where you've got regional players sponsoring quite a lot of these forces, in a lot of countries we're talking about, syria, the congo, et cetera, regional forces, regional powers that are playing an important proxy role. it's not just -- >> let me spell out what you're saying. you're saying in a place like syria, a problem with assad supported by the iranians, but the sunnis supported by saudi arabia. in a sense the conflict gets exacerbated. how do you make politics work in a way that ends these conflicts? everybody wants to do that and everyone calls for conferences
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in geneva where the two or the three or the five parties will come together. you can draw up the outlines of some power-sharing deal. it never takes. >> i think the politics is much harder than the rest of that. i think especially there's kind of a weariness with the world, an exhaustion, a fatigue. with these crises around the world. the other part of the problem is what we're trying to maximize is not often humanitarian values, but u.s. food aid programs aren't based on saving people from starvation. it's a u.s. agriculture support program and u.s. shipping program. we buy food in the u.s., expensive, ship it over and it does less good than if we bought food on location. we wouldn't have support otherwise. >> if you had a magic wand in your old job, foreign minister of britain, what is the one thing you could do to make the politics of this work better and in some way deal with the politics. >> let me offer this. it is extraordinary that the syria conflict hasn't just cost
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260,000 lives, hasn't driven 4 million people into the neighboring states. there is no political process of real heft and power to bring a diplomatic solution. we have a very committed u.n. envoy working on his own. where is the international effort from not just the u.s. and the u.k., but russia as well, regional powers, to recognize the common enemies that exist. the problem in syria is a worse problem than a year ago. in a year's time it will be worse again because the humanitarian catastrophe is feeding the political instability. that's the cycle we're stuck in. >> i think we in the media have some responsibility for this. if you look at past humanitarian crises, like the balkans, that was in part because television brought horrifying images into everybody's living room. that's much likely to happen in 2015 when news media organizations are struggling for a new business model that doesn't involve sending cameras abroad.
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strong reactions from around the world and brings me to my question of the week. which of the following politicians creating a farsi twitter account to be able to communicate directly with the iranian people this week? barack obama, john kerry, vladimir putin or benjamin netanyahu. stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is a great guide if you want to understand iran, called conveniently enough "understanding iran," everything you need to know by william polk, a great short read. the correct answer to the gps challenge question is d. believe it or not benjamin netanyahu tweeted about the deal in hebrew and english and from his new farsi account. the morning after the deal was struck he tweeted the hundreds of billions of dollars that will
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be deposited at iran's treasury will be spent on terrorism and aggression, not on hospitals and schools. for the moment this account has a relatively small number of followers. only time will tell if incendiary tweets will change that. thanks for being part of my program this week. i'm see you next week. d. we begin with more dramatic revelations in the bill cosby saga. the comedian reveals in his own words in a 2005 deposition he pursued younger women for sexual relationships and obtained the sedative quaaludes to give to women while trying to keep it secret from his
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