prison. surveillance video, here it is, recorded guzman's escape. that's it for us. we'll see you for an hour of "cnn newsroom." >> don't go anywhere, though "smerconish" is here right now. i'm michael smerconish. what a week, everything has changed. back from simi valley where i witnessed cnn's game changing debate first hand. i found something buried in the reagan library that donald trump should have seen before he took the debate stage. more on that later. although trump may be on the cover of next week's "new york magazine" as saving our democracy, he ended the week banged up pretty badly. meanwhile, carly fiorina's stock rising but will the ceo's record that she brags about prove her undoing? and joe biden more likely getting in the race. you will not find a smarter

group of people to unpack this david axelrod is here, bob bekaa is here. pulitzer prize win kathryn clark is here. and i've even got the man who carly dismissed as a clintonite. here's the question, is the air coming out of the trump balloon? i think carly won the debate. as i predicted, the intimate reagan library and three-hour format provided more substance that trump could offer. then he failed to reel in a questioner. and then ending the week cancelling citing a business n confli conflict. you recently told "the washington post" you want to be known for your expertise, not as a surrogate for democrats. is this what the beginning of

the end looks like for donald trump? >> i think so. you know, look, michael, you've been a student of this for a long time. i think presidential races run in phases. and i wrote a fees for cnn.com today. and i talked about spring is for casual dating. the summer there are often torrid romances that are never going to go anywhere. but in the fall, people start looking for solid, dependable, long-term relationships. and the tests get harder for candidates. i think donald trump failed the test at the end of the week when he was confronted by that questioner about the president -- accused the president, again of being a closet muslim. i don't think -- i don't think being a muslim should be a slander in any case, but unlike john mccain in 2008, didn't stand up to it, didn't correct. i think that combined with his

inability to answer in specific ways more detailed policy questions in the debate, i think, yes, are the beginning the end. i think his support is capped. and i think some of it is going to move away from him. >>. 54% of those who are supportive of trump also believe erroneously that the president is a muslim, he's not going to lose their support. but i guess you're saying that there's just no growth potential? >> yeah. and there's also 46% who don't believe that. look, i think a lot of people supporting donald trump are the same people who showed up at the sarah palin rallies at the end of the 2008 campaign. we know that there this cohort out there who believes that, you know, we are being encroached on by aliens. illegal aliens, muslims, china. and trump has tapped into that -- into that constituency. it's no accident that sarah palin was one of the first people to stand up and defend

him after he attacked senator mccain for his war record. and rush limbaugh came to his against. that's his constituency. it's not the majority of the republican party. it's certainly not the majority of the country. but it is an activist group and some of them may stick with him. >> can money solve his problems? he told patrick healy at the "the new york times" that he's ready to spend $100 million. >> i don't thing that money can solve his problems because he's getting such intensive media coverage. that it's his own performance that's at question here. $100 million does not solve the problem of being unwilling to stand up to someone who makes outrageous comments at one of your rallies. that's on you. and you know, you can't buy the courage to answer or the common sense to answer. but these are the tests that presidential candidates face. and it's not about how big your bank account is. it's about how stout your character is. >> as you referenced, you wrote

for cnn.com about his debate performance. here's part of what you said. he turned in a now familiar performance short on specifics, long on burlesque, and laced with dog whistle appeals to his flock. yet the bombastic billionaire seemed to wilt in the latter stages of the debate. >> is this what happens when you're forced to stand in an extended time period? >> i think that is. and i think it's going to get more difficult, as i said, as the races go on, the bar gets lived, people expect more of you. you're not going to get away with my policy for russia is i'm going to get along with putin. that's just not a compelling answer to that question. i think donald trump is an incredibly talented entertainer as he calls himself. he's been masterful at dominating the media during the

summer months. but the tests are getting harder now. and he's coming up wanton. >> in the aftermath of this gaffe, maybe coincidence, maybe not, he cancelled a south carolina appearance. the optics of that not good for a campaign. of what significance is that cancellation? >> i think it is significant. i think, first of all, that was a big deal down in south carolina. thousands and thousands of people, as you know, conservative movement down there is very strong. and to stiff the group was not good. but the other thing is if you're whole schtick is i'm the biggest, toughest dude around, and you run into a little trouble and you go into hiding, that's not very good for your message. >> david axelrod, thank you so much. >> good to be with you. if the summer romance with donald trump over? here are two pros, bob beckel is a democratic strategist and column economist for "usa today." and kathleen parker for "the

washington post" who writes on politics and culture. great to have you. glad you got the purple memo. ax didn't get it. and now the donald is responding, bob, he's saying do i have to come to the situation of the president when a situation like that occurs? should he have confronted that guy? >> no, we talk about mccain that was a general election. donald trump's people who vote for him believe that. now, is he going to stand there and tell his base you don't understand what you're talking about, is he really a muslim? he got away with it once again saying, and going into look into these things investigate all of these camps and things. but the fact is, when people say trump should have done that, should he have done it, was it the right thing to do? of course. was it the commit cal expedient think to do, i'm not sure. >> do you agree with that? >> not really.

let's be clear. muslim is not a bad word. lots of good people are muslims and they're american, too. but we're certainly sensitive to the fact that people are concerned. >> by the way, the tweet, this is the first time in my life that i have caused controversy by not saying something. >> that's a very good point. he's such a blabber mouth. he's unfiltered most of the time and shoot from the hip. this time he was careful in parsing his word saying we will be looking into these things. he was almost delicate with it. i thought who are you trying not to offend here. who are you trying not to alienate. >> am i morally obligated to defend the president every time somebody says something bad or controversial about him? i don't think so. how is that growth strategy to reign him in? >> michael, it's not about growth here. it's upsetting here with pure

politics. but i've been in iowa six different times. there's a sliver of iowa that believes this, and you're never going to convince him that he's a muslim. those are people that are going to go to caucuses and vote for donald trump. i think what trump is saying, it may be in the longer scheme to broaden his base. i don't think he can broaden his base much. i think he's got only 30% of republicans. >> kathleen, my point is 32% or thereabouts of the gop, and if the gop is 21% of the populous, and i've never good at math, it tells me one-third of republicans translates to 7% to 9% of americans. that's it. maybe it's enough to do well in a primary process or a caucus process, but you're not getting elected president with this sort of thing. >> of course not. he's so bad for the republican party. you have to be -- in order to be elected, present yourself as a leader, you have to say unpopular things even if it does

cause some members of your base. again, we are talking about the sliver or slice of a little tiny piece. you have to be able to say, look, we're not going to play into this, because we're better than that. let's raise the level of the conversation. let's acknowledge that we're concerned about immigration. we're concerned about, you know, certain people who are not interested in assimilating. and we're not going to do that to any group of americans. >> i don't think he loses his base. >> i don't either. >> listen, you got to remember for iowa, everybody keeps dismissing huckabee and santorum, let's remember they both run that state. they've got people out there that are going to vote them. >> right. but neither of them captured the nomination. >> it's not about nomination right now, it's getting to next week. the idea are there are four coming out of new hampshire. i've got an idea. but it's got to be attrition.

you've got people that have got to drop out. meantime, the next contest, the big one is iowa. and trump has a base and he doesn't want to upset that. >> i want to show you something that "the new york times" editorialized. peel back the boasting and insults, the lies and exaggerations common to any presidential campaign. what remain says collection of assertions so untrue, so bizarre, that they form a vision as surreal as the ronald reagan jet looming behind. isn't it when all the talk is about shutting down planned parenthood. and when the talk is about how w. kept us safe, aren't they losing the battle in the rest of the country, meaning outside the reagan hall? >> yes, of course. you do have to win the general election at some point.

so you don't want to get locked into these conversations that are so -- that pertain to just a small portion of the population. the group that wants to talk about vaccinations or autism. i don't blame jeb bush for wanting to say something positive about his brother, but he doesn't have to volunteer. >> the republican party has moved farther right in a shorter period of time because of this coverage. whoever emerges has a lot of work to get back in. >> that's my point. >> remember, there's so many of these people, you want to get there to be able to have that problem. right now, they want to get through iowa and new hampshire live. that stage is going to be empty. >> here's "the wall street journal," gang. it says it's more likely than not that biden is getting in. you're the democratic strategist, is that going to happen? >> i'm not buying in yet. the people around biden, they're

very good at dropping these things to keep joe stimulated, right? joe's going to find when he gets to the black caucus event in washington the wind is going to come out of the sails because hillary clinton is locked solid in that group. joe, final analysis, he's lost twice, does he want to go out as a former vice president and get 3. of the vote? >> do you think? >> i'm leaning more towards he will, than he won't, the reason is, what else is he going to do? i think joe biden wants to be president. i think he thinks he'll be a good president. he's going to be a formidable candidate, they're going to treat him gently. he's so likable. >> the next debate, cnn, october 13, if you where whispering in his ear and if he were going to get in, would you tell him to get in before or after that

debaty. >> certainly, debate. to get ready to be in iowa, you know, with 7,000 precincts, i think he should get in for. look, he's vice president of the united states, he can handle the issues. >> right, he's fluent. >> it's a cycle we've seen. we've all been seeing this for a while. you could script this kind of thing, right? >> there will be populists in the past and in the future. they stir things up. >> and they always lose. >> thank you so much, so much for being here. i appreciate you being in the studio today and for wear purple. continue to tweet at me @smerconish. by the end of the program, i'll make sure i share some of the best and worst tweets. we'll be right back to talk about pope francis' visit to the united states. if you love shrimp like i love shrimp, red lobster's endless shrimp... ...is kind of a big deal. it's finally back, with as much shrimp as you want,

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quote, taken offense at the obama administration's decision to invite to the pope's welcome ceremony transgender activists, the first openly gay episcopal bishop and the group. who better to talk about this than the head of the catholic league. bill donoghue joins me. bill, what do you make of that flap that who should be in that 15,000 group to greet the pontiff? >> well, i found it astounding that the president of the united states would actually show his contempt for catholics by bringing in people like dignity. dignity brought in dan savage, the most foulmouthed obscene anti-catholic. and then told by cardinal ward not to represent herself as a

catholic voice. every time a jewish or muslim leader is invited to the white house, properly, they have jews and muslims and others respectful of the leader. only catholics are exploited this way by this president. >> do you think that the pontiff himself will be offended? you refer to this as contempt for catholics. i keep thinking of pope francis as the guy saying who am i to judge. i get the feeling that he'll want everybody there. >> why aren't the ters of life there? why aren't the sisters of mary the eucharist there? the loyal nuns are not there. they're bringing in groups which are against mother teresa. they were against the lighting of the empire state building on h her. it's one thing to be welcoming and to be inclusive, it's quite

another to bring in people opposed publicly to the teachings of the catholic church. >> bill, there's a schism, apparently, within the church of those who perceive this pope to be quite liberal as compared to previous popes. it occurs to me he's going to be hostsed by forces like cardinal dolan, archbishop chipault. >> to put it in terms, at risk of oversimplification, what the pope hopes to be mike huckabee on social issues and bernie sanders on economic issues. if he's before the u.n. and talking about climate control, he's going to stay on the left. if he's talking about income inequality and he's talking

about other matters and climate control, then he's going to sound like he's a leftist. but when it comes to afternoon ma, when it comes to the family, things of that nature, he's going to sound much more conservative. look, the church has always been on the left on social economic issues and on the right on moral cultural issues. the difference with this pope, he brings them into sharp belief and if he's talking about immigration, the conservatives will get anxious. all of these people ought to pipe down. maybe they should study the teachings in the catholic church because the catholic church has been a strange political mixture all along. >> there's a lengthy piece in the "times" that talks about the pontiff. it and that nothing has changed there's a more welcoming face on the catholic church nthan previously. but the rules are the rules.

respond to that notion. >> i would agree 100%. in terms of process, he's widely different. in terms of style, very, very different. when it comes down to the substantive and doctrine will teach this. people don't understand it. there are certain things you can't change. for example, it's not well reported but is this what the pope said about women priests. he said, no, the answer is, the door is closed. he cited john paul ii. this is not bill donahue speaking this is what the pope said. can you have married priests? end celibacy? absolutely, you can do that. you can make changes? and he has. he's made it more accommodating. listen, he's shaking things up to a lot of people who live in a zone of uncertainty, but i like him. >> i appreciate your comment of him being a hybrid between governor huckabee and senator

sanders. do you expect that he's going to reset the presidential race that is now playing itself out against the backdrop of this visit? something he'll say maybe on climate change, maybe on immigration, maybe on a social issue? >> oh, i have no question there will be people who will seize on every word and say, see that, you guys better get in line, it's already started. it depends owen it is likely that immigration, and climate control will be one of the points. no question about it. but when he's in philly talking about the family, he's not going to be disrespectful of gays but he said in buenos aires that same-sex marriage is the work of the devil. he's not going to change that. that's him. >> i have 30 seconds left with bill. of many events about to play out, which one have you circled on your calendar you that think is going to sum up the visit? is it the final mass in philly,

madison square garden, what exactly -- the speech to congress, what do you have circled? >> it won't be philly or madison square garden. madison square garden is a mass and philly is mostly ceremonial. there will be two events. the congress on thursday. and the u.n. on friday. that's where you'll here his more political-type speech. but don't forget, what's most exciting and driving a lot of people crazy is what he says off the cuff. actually the most controversial remarks will probably be made on his way leaving philadelphia to go to rome. >> bill, have a great week. i know it's a huge week for you. i wish you great things. >> thank you. >> bill donahue, thank you for being here in my hometown of philadelphia. the head line on the enquirer tells a different story, the courts have been battling sex abuse lawsuits in the courts. will this pope change any of that? joining me now is a lawyer who

has represented several victims of priest abuse. marcy hammon clerked for sandra day o'connor. she's also the author of "god versus the gavel." marcy, has the pope put his house in order on this issue? >> michael, unfortunafortunatel had a lot of nice words but he's not done much in the united states as at all. >> what should he do? >> he should tell the victims to treat the law with caring and not hard ball tactics. >> hard ball tactics such as what? resisting the law to expand the statue of limitations? >> well, the lobbying is intense in several states, new york, pennsylvania, new jersey where the catholic bishops have babied and spent millions on trying to make sure that they don't get

justice. the other part is when there are cases that actually make it under the statute of limitations, he's actually permitting them to engage in hard ball tactics. invoking every religious theory that was ever concocted to avoid having to participate in a lawsuit. >> do you think that comes from the vatican? >> i'm not sure that the vatican is fully aware of it. i think it came from pope benedict. but pope francis has not changed at all the way the bishops operate. i haven't seen an iota of change in the united states. >> are there any changes as far as you know now for pope francis to sit down with victims of abuse while in the united states this coming week? >> not a peep. no one has heard anything. he is meeting with the family of a fallen police officer which is a wonderful thing for them but for the victims, so far, they feel as though they're being completely ignored. >> marcy, you know it's

anticipated that he'll say things about immigration, perhaps deliver a major address in philadelphia using abraham lincoln's lectern. do you think he'll address the history of abuse? will he touch this issue in the states and if so, what do you want him to say? >> i don't know if he can avoid it. but what he needs to say is that the church say church of mercy. that they are deeply sorry for what has happened to these victims. and when they have legitimate legal claims, the church will treat them like they're legitimate. instead of being so interested in avoiding every single claim and dragging victims who really don't need it through the courts. >> those hard ball tactics, though, protect the resources of the church, you're arguing for pope francis to do something against the financial interests of the flock that he's there to protect? >> well the truth of it is, most of these lawsuits are settled through a large extent through insurance. the diocese that had insurance

to cover clergy sex abuse for decades. so, it's really not about the money. it's about the secrets. they want secrecy to continue. and that's what the victims are fighting for. they're trying to get some kind of sunshine. >> do you think that this visit is going to recast the political landscape with things that pope francis will say or do against the backdrop of the 2016 presidential race playing itself out? >> well the biggest political change among religious lobbyists in the united states in recent history is with the joining of power of evangelical christians and the catholic bishops. it's brought them together in a way. and it's changed the message particularly for the bishops. i'm wondering if these positions that the catholic church is taking is going to start creating a difference between those two lobbying blocs, and if so, that will radically change the direction. >> because the catholics, at the direction of pope francis, are taking a more liberal posture? or at least liberal for

catholics? >> almost -- it's almost crazy liberal from the perspective of so many of the right wing christians. that it's going to be hard to be in the same room. they're going to continue to agree on abortion. but what about all of those other issues on which pope francis is now walking away from the far right. >> marcy hamilton, thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> keep your tweets coming. up next, carly fiorina's whole premise for candidacy is that she was a great ceo but the numbers show differently. >> the head of the yale business school wrote a paper recently, one of the worst tenures as ceo that he has ever seen, ranked one of the top 20 in the history of business. the company say disaster. and continues to be a disaster.

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i thought she won. carly fiorina gave what many found to be a star-making performance on wednesday's republican debate right here on cnn. how much of of that was just that, a performance, compared to a track record at ceo? donald trump made this accusation. >> head of the yale business school jeffrey sonnenfeld wrote a paper recently one of the worst tenures for ceo that he has ever seen. ranked one of the top 20 in the history of business. the company is a disaster and continues to be a disaster.

they still haven't recovered. told on the front page of the "wall street journal" they fired another 20,000 or 35,000 people saying we still haven't recovered from the catastrophe. >> jeffrey sonnenfeld is a well-known clintonite and honestly had it out for me from the moment i arrived at hewlett-packard. >> small fact check. jeffrey sonnenfeld is not the head of yale business school. he's a dean. he did wright the article calling carly fiorina as a boss the disappointing truth. professor sonnenfeld, let's deal with the issue of bias, are you a clintonite? >> no, i'm not. i've never taken kryptonite, i don't know superman. i don't know the clintons. i know the bushes but i've never been on any of these people's payrolls. i've met with personally, recently, four republican candidates for private discussions. not for compensation.

i often take a position, michael, like you, i want each candidate to try to help formulate their own positions in the best way they can to avoid the personal invective in the social behavior we sometimes see in these silly seasons. but no, i don't work for them. >> let me show what you carly fiorina wrote for cnn.com. she said hewlett-packard not only survived the dot-com bust, we also became the leader in every market segment and product category in which we completed. we doubled revenue to over $80 billion. we quadrupled the growth rate to 6.5%. that sounds impressive? >> everything in that statement, that short passage, is exactly why she shouldn't be president of the united states. and why she was a disaster as

the ceo of hewlett-packard. >> she doubled the revenues by $80 billion. >> that's not what busy about. you're trying to increase profit. everything has been shuttered or divested. >> what happened to profits? >> nothing. that's what you care about is profits. it went nowhere. it went nowhere in profits. she said, well, we're in tough time. the standard & poor's 500, the yard stick for profits in those five years for other companies was up 75%. as, even more importantly, she sliced shareholder wealth in half. this company was worth $1 when she got in the dollar, by the time she was fired it was worth 50 cents. what that means, $60 billion she erased from the company. she gets $100 million for doing that. >> there was a full-page ad, i saved because i knew this day

would come, it was run by a gentleman then on the board at hp, and participated presumably in her firing. let me show you a paragraph of what tom perkins said. critics questioned the move but history proves carly was right. post merger, hp became the biggest computer company in the world. it positioned hp to compete in integrated system and allowed us to compete in sectors of the company, printers. i can attest to her intellect, her talent, i'm proud to support carly fiorina for president of the united states." this guy participated in her firing on the board, and he says you're wrong. >> this is one board member who never minded speaking to the press about confidential board then and recently. by the then dean carol loomis at the time he was open about what a colossal affair she was in

style and substance. if he did, why hasn't he hired her in the last ten years? why hasn't anybody hired her in the last ten years? >> has she held any ceo position since hp? >> she's not only never held it, she's never been offered. >> when her tenure at hp was raised as an issue in the 2010 senate campaign against barbara boxer, this commercial was aired, and it significantly changed the direction of the race. the race has been neck and neck until this hit the airwaves. >> ceo of hp carly fiorina laid off 30,000 workers. >> when you're talking about massive layoffs which we did, perhaps the work needs to be done somewhere else. >> fiorina shipped jobs. she bought a million dollar yacht and five corporate jets. >> i'm proud of what i did at hp. >> carly fiorina outsourcing

jobs and outsourcing for herself. i'm barbara boxer. >> the media got on to it late in the campaign, thanks to barbara boxer and her team raising them. but to tell you the truth, among intimate friends here, that ad was too tepid. who light. too mild. there's so much more that could have been brought across in that campaign. she would hire platoons that would question her and challenging her own board members. it's a leadership style much more akin to russia and china than public office here but also her own strategic flip-flops sorry confusing. before she went after compact computer she announced was the opposite strategy. meg whitman who was a fantastic ceo of hp. >> yeah, but meg whitman just

laid off 30,000 people. >> these aren't people that meg whitman hired and fired. this is the legacy of carly fiorina. this is compact stuff. it's really a shame. yeah, these are the ill-faded legacy -- legacy of the ill-faded acquisition that has haunted them still. most businesses are shuttered. >> jeffrey sonnenfeld, thank you so much. up next, what secret treasure trove did i find at the reagan library that would help several of the candidates vying for the gipper's job?

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toured the reagan library before he debayed at the simi valley venue, because he could have found hidden in the vault what is i did, a piece of advice from the gipper that might have saved trump's campaign. see, within the reagan library there's a permanent exhibit

showcasing index cards on which the great communicate indicator hand wrote his famous one-liners for use in after dinner and campaign speeches. according to the library display, reagan began making such notations in 1950s and for 40 years, it was his practice to keep them in a makeshift photo album. the 3 by 5 cards holding his favorite one-liners were wrapped in a rubber band and kept in his brief bush. the note cards were almost left to history. they can discovered during the reagan centennial, the 100 anniversary of his birth. touring the reagan library last week on the eve of the presidential debate i spied a note card in reagan assess hand with a line that trump would have benefited from reading. it said this, never start an argument with a woman when she's tired, or when she's rested. trump violated that sage advice when in the presence of a "rolling stone" reporter he

spotted carly fiorina and blurted out, look at that face, would anyone vote for that? can you imagine that face being our next president? he finally turned the tide against him. and when given the opportunity to respond to trump's offensive statement, carly fiorina took the high road. >> you know, it's interesting to me. mr. trump said that he heard mr. bush very clearly in what mr. bush said. i think women all over this country heard very clearly what mr. trump said. [ applause ] >> arguably, trump's critique of fiorina's appearance elevated her profile, which contributed to the number of questions that came her way. you could say that trump ensured she received more than her fair share of face time. and trump's comments about fiorina are just the type of behavior that had caused reagan's eldest son michael to tell me here recently that he believes trump is the least regionesque of the lot.

ronald reagan didn't attack the people around him. he didn't demean the people around him. you know, he brought everybody together at the end. if republicans don't bring everybody together at the end of the day, we do not win elections. we're the smallest bus in the building. we don't have the ability to throw people off the bus and demean them. we have to figure a way to put people on that bus and move it forward to washington, d.c. and i don't think that donald trump is the guy who in fact fills the bus with those people that he has demeaned as he goes to attack the system. >> you know, many expected trump to go after ben carson in the debate but the donald played nice with the doctor. perhaps, carson should also take a tour of the reagan library and pay attention to another note card that i saw in ronald reagan's handwriting. it said this "beware of those who fall at your feet, they may be reaching for the corner of the rug."

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i always say you can tweet at me if you can spell smerconish and many of you have. charlie corona says, smerconish, i hope all the analysts that were wrong should be fired. trump should not correct the audience idiot. the average american tweets at me, trump has no honor, no integrity, no policies. if he won't stand up for the truth, he won't stand up for the average american. i made the point he can't expand

his base if he doesn't want to take a guy like that on. >> wanting trump to be p.c. or answer the right thing is wishful thinking. he's not a politician. that's his trump card. >> every time you people in the media think he made a gaf, he only reinforces our support of him. arguably, my favorite tweet is this one, pressidente trump said, you make some interesting points, ask some provocative questions. but you should smile more, michael. exude a little bit more warmth, that's all. i'll see you next week when i'm with chris cuomo in my hometown of philadelphia, covering the arrival of pope francis.

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well, we are hearing from donald trump as he was taking heat for something that he didn't say. does he need to defend the president's religion? trump says, uh-huh. vice-president, joe biden, getting closer to a run for the white house. the focus is on when, not if he will make that announce. . >> police arrest a man in connection with a sheer ris of highway shootings that terrorize drivers for month. the suspect's father doesn't believe it. >> whoever said he is the i-10