little bit. how the gop field is stacking up. the presidential campaign correspondent for the "new york times," maggie haverman and political new york one errol lou wise. you had a chance to look at the numbers, democrat's choice for >> what's your thoughts, errol? >> it looks like clinton has had sort of a reputation, she's running those states before. i didn't see sanders making a lot of appearance, biden is completely on the sidelines. some of this reflection her being a known quantity, being a known organization, showing interest in these states. let's keep in mind when sanders jumped in, he didn't say he was going to put together a 50-state organization right away. we've been talking about all the money he's raised. as he starts to spend it, perhaps he'll make more of an impact.

you don't see him campaigning in tampa, going through the i-4 corridor. that could change. he has a boost. he has the numbers. this is still clinton's race to lose. >> gop. this is giving fuel to the trump fire. why are you people saying i'm on the way down? there's now and august. trump up in florida. look at rubio and bush in their home state. ohio, trump on top, now and do we have a comparison? up again. this is why he was getting so inflamed about people saying when are you getting ready to drop out? you see, look, other people have moved more. they've moved more down. look at kasich in his own state. when you see these numbers, what do they mean to you, maggie. >> as you say, donald trump is not going to be going anywhere for a while. he sees no reason to go anywhere for a while. there's been a remarkable staying power to trump in a lot of the polls. political watchers who have been looking at races for years, most

of them thought by now his numbers would have started coming down, based on all of the factors, his fights in debates, the comments he's made, issues as he's gotten involved in. his base is very, very solid for now. that could change. but for now, he is sucking all the oxygen out of this race that is clearly going to continue well into next month. we have one more debate at the end of the month. >> he says the reason people say he's going to get out is because there's bias against him. the onw significance, what is t significance of having a high built-in negative? >> it's a high built-in negative, like 60% with these unfavorable views. another way to look at the polls, yes, he's holding firm in the 20% range. he's not going up. >> how can you have such high, unfavorable numbers and both of them, i don't know if we can

pull up clinton's, pennsylvania 54%. both of them are leading the polls, maggie. it defies logic in my brain. >> it is unusual except if you look at what happened in the midterms last year. you had a lot of candidates in senate races and gubernatorial races where they had higher unfavorable ratings than they had approval ratings. i think the toxicity in terms of the conversation, in terms of politics right now is very high. and it is sort of bringing down all boats for lack of a better way of putting it. in terms of clinton and trump, those are the two people who get the most media coverage. >> sure. >> that's just the way it is. there's been obviously extensive coverage of hillary clinton's e-mail use. >> she had built-in negatives coming in. with trump we're learning. there's an evolution of him as a candidate and what he means to the process. this was always the gamble with hillary, she'd have a big base support, women would be potentially energized in the democrat and independent spaces

like never before. she's a clinton, that means things that are often negative for people. >> she was not upsite down. this is since she got into the race. >> outside the race and inside the race are always different. >> sure. >> even with joe biden, his numbers will change rapidly if he gets in. >> yes, being a candidate is very different from not being a candidate. to errol's point, these are not states where you've seen other candidates organizing yet. the later states in primaries tend to follow what happened in the earlier states. >> we are a few days out from the election, obviously. >> yes. >> these numbers could change drastically. >> dramatically. >> we've seen that happen before. our business is to crunch through them, each poll that comes out. that's an important thing to consider at this point. >> absolutely. list, it's about -- when you're asked in a poll, if the election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for? if the list gets smaller and smaller, people's calculations change. just because people have an unfavorable view of hillary

clinton, if you're a die-hard democrat, if you go into the booth, that's one of two or three names you have to pick from, maybe you hold your nose and cast that vote. the other thing to keep in mind, this goes to your interview yesterday with donald trump. if you're at 20%, 25%, 28%, what it also means is that 7 out of 10 republicans don't want you. >> that's what it proves. there may be a built-in ceiling for him. >> sure. >> that's the objective criterion of challenge for him. polls, we keep saying it on the show, we like fresh numbers. you do, too. they're just a moment in time. >> they are a moment in time. >> they are. >> look at that moment in time, not what it means dispositively but right now. >> they can create momentum. >> especially if you're low. >> they mean less this far out. we're going to see -- >> sure. >> they'll mean much closer to the iowa caucuses. >> that mean more for the people having trump staying in.

>> they'll have to get to the bottom of why people think clinton is untrustworthy. they can because it is the clinton style. >> what's easier to fix, clinton's built-in negative or trump's built-in negative. >> clinton's. >> easier to fix? >> absolutely. >> even with all the years and the exposure? >> she's -- first of all, she doesn't have 12 people coming at after her. she has a lot of experience and a big track record that she can sort of call on allies. she has her husband who's one of the best campaigners in the business. she's got a lot of different ways to change this. >> ben carson asked about the shooting in oregon and we have sound that we can play. i'm curious your reaction on what you hear. >> i guess there's an implication that you're saying that the students didn't do enough to save themselves? >> i just said nothing about them. i said what i would do. >> can you say what you would do? >> i would ask everybody to attack the gunman. he can only shoot one at a time.

that way we don't all wind up dead. >> he was on "the view" and said i wouldn't have sat there and let him shoot me, at least we all wound up dead and laughed and that caused great consternation and the twittersphere erupted. >> this is not something you tend to hear allot from candidates. i think the republican field in general has struggled with how to react to these mass shootings. we've sean a bunch offer the summer. i think the oregon one seems to have presented people with the hardest. you saw jeb bush struggle last week with answering it. while people argue his stuff happens, quote, was taken out of context, he was making the broader point that he thinks there should not be changes in gun laws. when you hear what ben carson is saying, that is not something you typically hear a politician say or, you know, or an elected official say in response to i amass shooting. >> it's also what he represents that many people are attracted to. >> it is. >> this is where a lot of people's common sense brains take them. if someone is going to try to

kill you, do what you can at the moment. the laugh at the ended is what he's getting beaten up for. is a little bit of that trying to diffuse the situation and move on. >> it could be a nervous tick, trying to diffuse the issue. this is a core policy difference between the rains and the democrats in this race, is that this whole notion we should be arming kindergarten teachers because they'll have a shootout over their 5-year-olds. it sounds crazy because it sounds like this is coming from people who have never met a kindergarten teacher this is just not a realistic way to solve a very important public problem. i think republicans are sort of giving away a lot of issues with that kind of callous talk. it's cringe worthy. it doesn't sound like -- >> my mother is a kindergarten teacher you changed my whole image with that one thought. >> i met your mother.

she would not need a gun. >> raised eyebrows. >> absolutely. it's worked with many years for me. maggie, errol, always a pleasure. new numbers, we love to have them. >> we do. >> the polls are only as good as the input data from the people being polled. that comes from debates. guess what, we're just six days away from the first democratic debate. >> better bank some sleep, fellow. >> i know, right? >> hosted by cnn and facebook. it's in vegas. i have my skinny jeans and velvet smoking jacket ready. don't it the hate. tuesday, 8:30 p.m. eastern right here on cnn. it's all about you. if you have a question you'd like to ask, head over to cnn's facebook page or record a short video for instagram. using the #demdebate. >> i don't need to hate. vegas will handle you. >> don't hate, dem debate. >> all right. other news, growing tensions over russia's military escalation in syria. breaking overnight, moscow says it's open to cooperating with the u.s. on air strikes in syria. this comes as russia's air

assault continues where new strikes this morning, hitting several towns in western syria. cnn's arwa damon is live in istanbul, turkey. arwa? >> reporter: good morning, michaela. dramatic video being posted by activists purporting to show the strikes taking place. no confirmation just yet if the video is in fact that of russian aircraft and exactly what sort of artillery may have been used. but what we are hearing being reported from the syrian observatory for human rights is that syrian regime forces are taking advantage of these air strikes and that in some of these areas where the strikes took place, the fiercest clashes are taking place on the ground between regime forces and anti-assad rebel groups. this is quite interesting, especially given the fact that you were mentioning, russia has said it is willing to coordinate with the united states when it comes to air strikes but america and russia are on two opposite

sides of this conflict, with russia saying its strikes are, yes, against isis but also against other groups that the syrian government deems to be terrorist organizations. the united states only wants to see russia itself being targeted. nato also speaking out about the russian buildup in inside syria, saying that the russian deployment of significant forces in syria is of great concern. nato also bringing up at least two violations of turkish air space that took place over the weekend. the turks and the russians getting together, coming out and saying that, yes, it was a mistake but turkish preside presidenterpresident saying not to push his country any further. the foreign minister speaking out saying without a doubt, russia will win this race. that's a direct comment and perhaps a challenge to the u.s.-led coalition, chris. >> arwa, as you have continued

to remind the politics, the military action, all adds to the stress of those trying to live their life on the ground. we'll be watching that as a byproduct of all of this. thank you for the reporting. the head of u.s. forces in afghanistan, related to what's going on in syria, because isis and al qaeda are also there. he says they're getting stronger. as a result he's adjusting his recommendation for the number of troops needed there. cnn international diplomatic editor nic robertson live in kabul, afghanistan with more. how many more? what do we know? and what is the situation on the ground that they're so worried about, nic? >> reporter: sure. i mean you have the taliban in the tens of thousand, getting stronger across the country. a challenge to the afghan national army here. u.s. is supporting it, helping train it, helping it get battle ready. but add into that mix now, you have al qaeda in a growing strength again, you have thousands of isis fighters here now. you have other insurgents crossing over from pakistan and for that reason, the general in

charge here, campbell, says he'll have to change his recommendation or give president obama different options than pretty much drawing all those forces down by the end of next year. this is what he said. >> based on conditions on the ground, based on the transitions i've talked about, i do believe that we have to provide our senior leadership options different than the current plan that we're going with. >> reporter: of course, in the news, the kunduz hospital, the u.s. air strike there, doctors without borders, frustrated that they don't think they're going to get the investigation they want. i was talking to people from kunduz, people forced out by the taliban, i said, look, how's the army doing? do you need u.s. support? they said, absolutely. our army isn't strong enough, it isn't capable. it ran away from the taliban in places, saying kunduz. we want the military support, just don't hit the hospitals and

please, no civilian casualties. the u.s. in their assessment still really needed. u.s. secretary of defense, ash carter, addressed that particular concern directly when he said yesterday the u.s. military takes the greatest care in our operations to prevent the loss of innocent life and we make -- and when we make mistakes we will own up to them. clearly a need here, from the people, certainly john campbell, the u.s. general in charge here, his assessment, the u.s. military has a role to play here. >> heavy hearts about this one for sure. nic, thank you. mean mile we turn to the coast guard zeroing in on their search zones athey look desperately for survivors from that sunker cargo ship, "el faro." family and friends of the 33 crew members holding vigils, agonizing over the fate of the loved ones. the owners say the captain had a plan to deal with, at the time,

tropical storm joaquin. >> this is certainly something that's being looked at. ma what kind of weather information was available to the crew and the captain. the coast guard has been out through the night looking for survivors, covering more than 172,000 square miles in the search for the 33 people who were on board that ship that set sail from jacksonville, headed to puerto rico. the owners of the company are under a lot of pressure now to answer questions about why the ship left the port. they are saying they put their trust in the captain to be the decisionmakers, that as recently as last wednesday, they had heard from the captain of that ship who reported that he was aware of the increasingly difficult and dangerous weather conditions but he reported that the ship was still in a favorable position. still, why wouldn't the owners of this ship have stopped "el faro" from setting sail, given that the hurricane was emerging and seemed to be in the direction that this ship was heading? here's how they answered those questions. >> given what he had in the way

of information about the weather system, his plan was a sound plan that would have enabled him to clearly pass around the storm with a margin of comfort that was adequate in his professional opinion. >> we all now know what happened by thursday. that's when the captain of the ship reported to the parent company that the ship had become disabled, that it had lost propulsion. it's not clear why the ship became disabled. the captain report there had been some kind of navigational incident. this is what left the ship to become so vulnerable as it headed for a category 4 hurricane which emerged. the ntsb is on scene, they are trying to determine what caused the ship to become disabled but as they look for answers, the coast guard remains tasked with looking for survivors. >> yes. and this is something the families are holding out hope for. alexandra, thank you for the latest. in our next hour, we'll

speak with a friend of the captain of that doomed cargo ship. he's a mariner himself, to try to get insight on what could have happened. chris? to south carolina. right now, nothing but trouble. dam breaks, emergency evacuations, rising death tolls, billions in damage, countless families left with nothing. cnn's boris sanchez is live in king street, south carolina. more there. the rain has stopped. that gives the illusion the problem is over. the opposite is the truth. what do you see? >> reporter: governor nikki haley said yesterday, don't let the sunshine fool you. you shouldn't. the situation still dire here in south carolina. i'll pain.a picture of what's going on behind me in just a moment, chris. i'll give you numbers that are staggering. there are 11 dams that have failed here in south carolina since saturday. 35 of them that are being monitored right now because they're at risk of breaching. there's about 70 miles of i-95 that are shut down in the state. i-95 only runs for about 200 miles in south carolina. that's a giant chunk of highway

that is shut down right now as 5 to 8 bridges are being inspected there. you mention the death toll. there are about 15 dead here in south carolina, 2 in north carolina. we've gotten word there have been at least 175 water rescues since this weekend. that number will rise dramatically. keep in mind a fire chief here in kings street, said theyer with formed 50 water rescues. inclu including one early this morning. the neighborhood behind me is an area called fools hill. it's completely submerged. there are several feet of water, the water is moving east, covering a highway to the east of us. the situation unfolding far from normal, michaela. >> far from normal. so sobering to see those image. you're talking around seeing it firsthand. we appreciate your reporting. thank you so much. the biggest mass release of federal inmates in u.s. prison

history begins later this month. tens of thousands more could soon follow after maximum sentences for nonviolent drug offenders were lowered. the justice department says about a third are noncitizens and they would face deportation. these releases come as many cities see a surge in murders and violent crimes. another scare in the air involving a pilot getting sick midflight. this time united airlines co-pilot passed out about an hour after takeoff. the houston to san francisco flight forced to divert to new mexico. the co-pilot left the plane under his own power. it's still unclear what was wrong with him, this just days after an american airlines pilot died after suffering an apparent midair heart attack. >> goodness me. all right. russia launching new air strikes in syria overnight. all the while talking about cooperating with the united states in future strikes. could the u.s. and russia cross paths leading to military confrontation? we are going to speak to a former nato ecommander, ahead.

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here's the latest. russia says it is willing to cooperate with u.s. on future air strikes in syria. for now, they're certainly not waiting, launching the most intense round of strikes yet overnight. is this good news? are they doing what the united states wants to do in syria? that's the big question. we have good people to give you insight. the general, and mr. kurt volcker, he's cluntly the executive director at the mccain institute and the senior adviser at the atlantic council. gentlemen, thank you for being here. general, i start with you. do we have reason to believe that russia wants the same thing that the united states and the allies want in syria? >> no. i think we want different ends, but that should not prevent us from cooperating when we have aircraft flying in a very small air space over syria.

it's the cooperation part that i think needs to be understood here, not the aims on the ground. >> let's take the general's point, kirk. how do you cooperate with someone who is doing what you don't want them to do, besides not shooting each other in the air. >> i think you put your finger on the limits of it. i wouldn't say you could call it cooperation. we do have fundamentally different goals. russia is there to support the assad regime. we're there to try to go after isis which russia so far has not shown interest in doing. we have to coordinate, so if we have forces operating in the same space we done the have accidental conflict between those forces. >> this is about cooperating and not shooting each other, general. but what about what's being done on the ground? you had a syrian official say russia is going to win this race. what's going on here? >> that's a good question. but i really think we do have a common enemy here in isis.

and isis is as much a concern to russia as it is to us, given the transcaucus region which is the underbelly of russia. i think there is a common interest here if we can at least talk about that, i think it would go a long way to the cooperation and coordination that's needed in the air. we need an air coordination center somewhere in that region to coordinate what's happening on the ground. >> can you work with somebody, general, who is trying to kill the people that you're trying to arm to fight assad? >> i've worked with the russians in the past over bosnia. i think at the top levels, that cooperation is possible. i agree that we have different aims with assad but we do have common aims with isis. there has to be a way to figure out how to do this coordination, even though our political aims may be different.

>> afghanistan. the commander there comes out and says strategy's not working. we need more men. what is this an introduction to? mr. volcker? >> well, i think you're seeing the question raised about a continuing u.s. presence in afghanistan beyond the end of this administration. it's very late to do so and i think it gets back to the question of strategy again. what with he really trying to do? even these numbers coming out of 5,000 or so troops, is that going to be sufficient to what mission, what purpose? and i think we're going to have to look at deciding is it important to the united states to have a stable and secure afghanistan and, therefore, resource that? or are we -- do we find it more important to get out? are we just going to do that? i hope that we choose the former. >> the former of trying to stay there and create something. >> keep a stable afghanistan and don't let another iraq happen. >> you have much better intel on this than i do. my guys who work in and around the situation say forget it. the taliban is still there.

they've repopulated. they buy off the -- they provide people what they need. the place will never hold together as a unified sovereign. this is a waste of time. this is water in the sand. >> i personally don't agree with that. i know that the taliban is back and that they are fighting and that they do pose a huge challenge. that's exactly why you need more time for the afghan government to show that it can build capability and succeed. if you look at afghanistan from where we began in 2003 up until, you know, ten years after that, we had tremendous progress in afghanistan in just about every area, from economic development to education to security. what's happened is as we pulled our forces out, the afghan government wasn't ready. you're seeing the taliban come back. i think the issue is gufring the afghan government more time and i think it can be successful. >> quickly, general, this hospital in kunduz, you have u.s. officials saying we would never target a protected hospital. we hope you'd never target any hospital. what happened here?

you obviously hit the wrong thing. what happens now? >> i believe the steps are being taken to investigate it and to try to figure out what went wrong. but things like this happen in war and conflict and i think woe should react to it, phone out what happened but not overreact. i think it's a crime doing something against the doctors without borders who do such good work around the world. we need to get on with developing a strategy. i'm not sure we have, the united states, a strategy for the middle east. that seems to be imploding as we speak. >> do you think there is a good strategy for the middle east? >> no. i really don't. i don't know what that strategy is. the clarity isn't there. and i think we're going to have more missteps as we go along. so we need to have a comprehensive military diplomatic, economic strategy here with our allies about the

way forward in the middle east. >> question is, is there a way forward and a way that will satisfy the american people? mr. volcker, general, thank you very much for the perspective. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> thank you. investigators are turning their attention to the mother of the college shooter in oregon. in online postings she professed her love for beguns, wrote about her son's disorder but did she know just how troubled he was? the latest, next. ♪ ♪ (charge music) you wouldn't hire an organist without hearing them first. charge! so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. tit's amazing.. this is amazing. that's amazing! real people are discovering surprising things at chevy. we're sold. it's so pretty. beautiful! it feels great. perfect. this is not what i would expect from a chevy at all. get more than you expect for less than you imagined. the 2015 models are going fast.

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a new quinnipiac poll shows the democratic and republican front-runners running strong in three battleground states. hillary clinton leads by double digits in florida, ohio and pennsylvania. this despite more voters answering no to the question of whether she was honest and trustworthy. these new numbers coming out less than a week away from the first democratic debate, october 13th, 8:30 p.m. right here on

cnn. and on the republican side, donald trump is on top, ben carson second, in all three swing states with a number of the other gop candidates jockeying for third place in those individual polls. >> investigators turning their attention to the mother of the oregon gunman, particularly online posts she wrote about guns and her troubled son. cnn's dan simon live in roseburg, oregon with the latest. what do we know? >> well, chris, you'll remember the gunman's father said he didn't know his son had any guns. the mother not only knew about them but she's a gun collector and a gun enthusiast herself. what we also learned through the social media postings, she said that her son has a developmental disorder on the autism spectrum, specifically asperger's syndrome. we should point out, there's no medical evidence, no link between violent behavior and asperger asperger's.

it raises questions as to what she knew about the full mental state of her son. she said i keep my mags full, i keep two full mags is my case. no one will be dropping by my house uninvited without acknowledgement. there's a boastful tone to these statements. here's what she wrote about her son and asperger's. may son has asperger's. he's no babbling idiot, nor is his life worthless. he's intelligent and working on a career in film making. my 18 years experience is paying off. i'm a nurse. we have confirm she's a registered nurse and in these postings she also says she has asperger's herself. obviously when you hear all this, there's more questions than answers. as many have already noted, striking similarities between this case and newtown shooter adam lanza. in that situation, also living with a mother who collected guns, encouraged the use of them. they went to shooting ranges and

so obviously people are looking at that case and this one as well in the same context, chris, michae michaela, back to you. >> the similarities are a misunderstanding of the mental health state of the person involved and gun security. we very rarely talk about it in terms of what needs to change. more often than not people get access to these guns not themselves but others who haven't properly stored them. >> we're talk more about this coming up in the next few minutes. the ceo of volkswagen says the company will begin its massive diesel car recall in january. he thinks just a few employees were involved in the so-dahled diesel-gate scandal. the global recall and fines could cost that company tens of billions of dollars. >> once they put the word gate on you, you have trouble. the mother of the oregon college shooter, are warning

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good to have you back on "new day." online posts linked to the mother of the oregon college shooter have a window into his mental state. those posts are shining a spotlight with the mother and son's bond over guns. joining us is a board certified pediatric psychiatrist. we're so happy to have you here with us. this woman has been a prolific poster online, says she was a registered nurse. we're able to confirm that. she also claims she has asperger's. i just want to talk to you about what we know about asperger's. this has been brought into the conversation. we know it's on the spectrum of autism. it's a developmental disorder. >> yes. >> but is there any reason, any science, to link any planned violence to this diagnosis?

>> let me start by being very clear. there's no link between mental illness and violence and there's certainly no link between an autistic spectrum disorder and violence. to be clear, we don't talk about autism anymore. we talk aboutous testic sp -- a spectrum disorders. people with autistic disorders may be very focused on interests, often they're focused on trains or subways. he could certainly be focused on guns. that may explain the interest. but there's no link between the mental illness and violence. >> there's a lot being made about the relationship the mother and the son had, not just their relationship but common interests and their bonding over guns. i actually want to read to you something that the ap -- they spoke to a psychologist, peter langman. he said in some cases parents

don't recognize there's a problem. in other cases they are aware of mental health issues. but they don't see any evidence of violence and they don't see a reason not to take them. >> the truth is, everything that she did was legal. in our country it's okay to bond around violence. so she bonded with him around guns. we know that. they both had very big interests. do i think it's a good idea to bond to a mentally unstable person around guns? of course not. >> is it something that -- somebody with this diagnosis, the common sense would say somebody with this kind of disorder, they shouldn't even have access to guns. >> yes, it's true. i believe that we need to have more restrictions on access to guns for mentally ill. the truth is all these guns were bought legally by his mother. i think asperger's is not the issue here. i don't think asperger's is

related to anything that happened in this violence. i think we need to think about mentally ill and violence. it's about accessibility of guns in the home. >> that's a good point to make. also this was a man of 26 years of age. >> yes. >> that this was not somebody under 18 where the parents have a little more sway or authority over. that brings up a very important conversation. if you have someone that is under your care, because obviously this was a young man living with his mother, had a close relationship with his mother. what kind of responsibility do you bear and how does that weigh against that person's individual rights when it comes to mental health issues? >> this comes up every time i come on air to talk about these shootings, what the responsibility is for an adult child. i believe parents of adult children with mental illness need to have more access to records, more ability to provide them care. but in our country, hipaa -- does it's not set up that way. >> once you're 18 the parents have no access to records we have the hipaa laws. they have no ability to mandate care. that's something as a country we need to be talking about, how to

provide comprehensive services to mentally ill and how to allow access for adults with mental illness. >> she voiced her frustrations, too. >> yes. >> from a medical perspective, the medical community, are they concerned? if we looked at the data, the cdc data says fewer than 5% of u.s. gun killings are perpetrated by people with mental illness. is there a concern about the stigma after an event like this? is there a concern in the medical community about that? >> we're always concerned about the stigma around mental illness. >> always. but is it worsened at a time like this. >> the mental illness did not cause this act. >> you hear politicians saying that was a mental illness issue. >> the reality is, states that have more guns in the household have higher rates of suicide. having guns in the home kills people. if you want to talk about guns,

talk about guns and suicide. if you have higher amount of guns in the home. when you have someone mentally ill or not mentally ill, they have had a setback, they've been humiliated, they impulsively take a gun and kill themselves. if there's no gun, they don't kill themselves. >> obviously a need for a conversation. thank you. >> thank you so much. new polls for you this morning for the 2016 race. they show donald trump still in the lead. actually growing in places that matter. who can beat him? would trump's answer be marco rubio? is that why he's going at him? inside the spat. who it help and how. we take you inside the game, ahead.

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we have some new polling to top the hour here, showing how democrats are doing in key swing states, just six days before the cnn democratic debate. i hope you're well napped up before that. we'll look at the gop field and break down who is rising and falling. investigators are looking into the mother of the oregon campus gunman, what she knew. were there missed warning signs? we'll hear from a friend of the mother. we'll also speak with a top psychologist, ahead. that's what we're going to take on in the show. >> yes. >> what we also want to take on is what's going on with marco rubio and donald trump. >> they've got beef. >> they do. trump poll numbers are up. why is he calling a sitting senator a boy, a lightweight, like he said yesterday? is it working for him, against him? let us discuss. we have mercedes vee iana-schla.

>> good to have you both. >> good morning. >> buenos dias. >> he says i'm a counterpuncher, he started it. what is your diagnosis of what is happening here and who it helps? >> obviously donald trump views marco rubio as a threat. he's climbing in the polls. as we know, donald trump stays very closely attuned to what's happening in every single poll. and so he's taking him on, saying, look, i have business experience. i've done the deals. he's trying to make the comparison for the voters in the meantime, he's having quite fun doing it by sending him the care package.

i'm convinced donald trump will send a care package to you any day now. >> what will be in it? >> i'm worried what will be inside. >> will it be ticking? >> i'm worried. >> why don't we play the sound. i wanted to ask you. i'll ask you this on the other side of it. let's play a tidbit from yesterday, the gift you gave us on "new day" with donald trump. let's listen to the sound. >> trump-nado. >> he's weak on immigration, he has $12 in the bank. he borrows, works with his car dealer in florida. give me a break. rubio is not the guy that's going to be negotiating with the kind of people you have to negotiate with to turn this country around. >> so i'm curious, he didn't really answer the question about the whole gag gift, first of all, which i thought was deflective. >> the question is merely a suggestion. >> also, i'm wondering is there a way that rubio benefits from all of this fuss from donald trump? >> that's a great question.

i think everybody has been anticipating that in it republican race with this more brash and aggressive, sorry, some of us have been in the midwest, some might even say, new york style of donald trump, we keep thinking it's going to boomerang. in the three key polls, it doesn't seem to be boomeranging. there are weaknesses donald trump has. one of the strengths he has is leadership skills. if you notice when he makes the counterpunches, attacks, whatever you want to call him, it's about how he can lead and negotiate, which plays to his strength. >> let's look at what is going to be more difficult to navigate here politically. the most recent numbers in florida, if we can put them up, mercedes, trump is in the lead. fine. the shocker here is this is the home state, the backyard of rubio and bush. let's talk about this rubio/bush dynamic. >> mentor, mentee. >> how does this one play out?

>> we're still early on. for the 2012 gop primary it was clear that herman cain was up at this time. we have seen governor jeb bush's number trend downward in florida and rubio is, he's staying up there. he hasn't fallen down. he's staying pretty good there. i think when you look at these numbers in florida, it's clear that these gop voters, right now, the sentiment is still anti-establishment, let's try something new. let's figure out if these outsiders really have what it takes to shake it up in washington. that's why you're seeing a shift in governor jeb bush's campaign, saying we're going to shake down mount washington. you're seeing rubio talking how he's distancing himself from washington. those are smart tactics. they have to campaign aggressively to make ground. >> bush is getting a little more aggressive, stepping up the

attacks on rubio citing his poor attendance in washington, something we watched donald trump do as well. is that a wise move for him to take the same tactic as trump? >> absolutely. if you look at all these polls, the indication from republican voters is they want someone who will shake things up jeb bush did that as governor of florida. he was the leading conservative governor during his time in office. he wants to rekindle that spirit with these voters. he's seen as an establishment, it's hard for him to shake that feeling from voters but he needs to go and talk to them about what he would do to change things. jeb bush has never spent one day in elected office in washington. he ought to take washington on. i think he's trying to do that with this new strategy. >> the question becomes how do you fight a friend? that's one of the things that changed this. >> it's tough. >> arguably they should have been more quiet about it earlier on. both of them knew only one

floridian can make it out of that primary. >> so completely right. >>en froms and politics, there's not many friends in politics that was going to be short lived. i knew it when jeb bush said we're friends, yes, you can be friends but when you have to compete and you're trying to win your state, you'll do what you can and you'll have to knock the other candidate down. that's just the way it works in politics. so i think that, you know, with senator marco rubio doing better in the polls, they're keeping a close -- jeb bush's campaign is keeping a close eye on that. you're seeing that with trump, too. they're ready to knock him down. senator rubio, i expect he'll do well in the next debate and, again, he's rising. so it's something to be watching carefully. >> the schlapps, thank you very much to both of you. >> thank you. >> we'll check in on the next event when we need perspective. >> thank you. let's get to the other stories this morning.

>> russia's air assault continues. syrian regime forces are taking advantage of these air strikes. >> the president has made quite clear that russia should not be interfering. >> you can see where the water is covering over that road right there. crews are moving fast to try and repair devastated south carolina. >> it is hard to look at the loss that we are going to have. >> investigators from the ntsb arrived here in jacksonville. the search for survivors is actively still under way. >> i've cried so much that i can't -- i have no more tears. they all have to come back. this is "new day" with queen elizabeth, alisyn camerota and michaela pereira. >> good morning. welcome back to your "new day." good morning to you. breaking news overnight, russia now says it's willing to cooperate with the u.s. in carrying out air strikes in syria. the apparent olive branch coming amid deep concern over moscow's increasing presence, militarily there.

overnight, russian warplanes launching a new round of strikes on several towns in western syria. >> the big question is, are they there to take on isis or really help assad or both? how do you figure it out? one thing we know, the head of nairt toe nato is condemning russia for violating air space. arwa damon is following these developments live in install bull. arwa? >> reporter: good morning, chris. russia violating turkish air space over the weekend twice, then writing it off as being a mistake, blaming it on the weather. neither turkey nor nato necessarily buying that line. with nato's secretary general as you were saying calling this unacceptable, also calling the russian deployment of significant forces in syria of great concern. this is something that has also, of course, been echoed by the united states. many concerned although russia does deny this, that it will also have a ground troop somehow involved in syria to assist the

assad regime. russia is not only targeting isis positions. that in fact is amongst the minority of areas that it has been striking. most of them according to activists and rebel forces on the ground are, in fact, anti-assad position. when it comes to syria's perspective, just about every single rebel group is considered to be a terrorist organization. russia is there at the request of the syrian regime. but it most certainly at this stage has forced itself on to the table as a key regional player. to such a degree that the syrian foreign minister even came out and boasted, saying without a doubt, russia will win this race. what is going to be key at this stage is seeing exactly how the u.s. and its coalition do in fact respond. do they allow a russia to continue acting with impunity or do they somehow try to rebalance the scales? because if the status quo continues, they most certainly

will tip in favor of the assad regime. that is not going to body necessarily very well for syria. the region, or for the additional civilians that have been impacted by this horrific war for all too long, chris. >> arwa, we are seeing a signal from u.s. leadership that they're starting to separate assad from isis more and more. what does that portend in terms of future accommodations of what russia is doing? we know you'll follow it on the ground. we'll come back to you soon. another part of this that is certainly complicating matters is that isis is not just strong in syria and iraq. they and al qaeda are getting much stronger in afghanistan, so much so that the u.s. commander there is rethinking how many troops are needed of americans, american troops, to keep that country stable. so let's go to cnn international diplomatic editor, nic robertson. joining us from kabul, afghanistan. what has changed on the ground? and what does it mean? >> reporter: chris, right now on the grounded about 10,000 u.s.

troops, the plan by the end of 2016 to draw that number down to about 1,000. but what has changed? the afghan army here is struggling. the u.s. helped train it, helps it in the battlefield, has been helping it for over a decade now. they're struggling. there are more than tens of thousands of taliban. they've just taken over a big city. al qaeda we know now, thousands of them pushing into the country, isis, thousands of them pushing into the country here again. it's complicating the threat here. that's why u.s. general in charge of u.s. troops here, john campbell is giving president obama other recommendations. this is what he said. >> based on conditions on the ground, based on the transitions i've talked about, i do believe we have to provide our senior leadership options different than the current plan that we're going with. >> now, i've talked to afghans on the ground here, they fled

kunduz, the city where there's a question about the air strike that hit the hospital, said do you still need u.s. support here? absolutely, they told me. the afghan army isn't strong enough. it can't defeat the taliban, can't defeat all these threats, they say, just, just don't hit civilian people and don't hit hospitals. to that point, u.s. secretary of defense ash carter, made this statement yesterday, very, very clearly allying people's fears in that regard. he said the u.s. military takes the greatest care in our operations to prevent loss of innocent life. when we make mistakes with we will own them. making mistakes an owning them there, he's talking about the investigation into the incident at that hospital in kunduz over the weekend. michaela? >> owning it, what does that look like? we'll have to wait and see. back here state side, something people waking up in south carolina don't want to hear. the rain may have stopped but the flood ravaged state

grappling with a swarm of new concerns. crews are fearing more flooding could be on the way. let's get straight to boris sanchez live in kings tree, south carolina with the very latest. boris? >> hey, michaela. as the sun is rising, we're getting a clearer picture of the devastation in kingstree. this is several feet of water covering this entire neighborhood. that sign is under several feet of water. this is a river behind us that has gone over its banks and gone into this neighborhood. there are homes here, cars under water and this is just a devastating situation for kingstree. this river is slowly moving east, a lot of the water coming from the west where the dams have breached. this is actually going over a highway into a bridge that is still covered in water. it hasn't been opened. to give you some numbers, specific numbers we're seeing here in south carolina, 11 dams have breached or failed since

saturday. 35 of them are still under observation by officials, because they're in danger of being breached. also, there are about 70 miles of i-95 that are closed in south carolina. to give you perspective, there are only about 200 miles of i-95 in south carolina. that's a huge chunk of highway that's shut down right now. five to eight bridges are being inspected before that highway can re-open. we're also talking about the death toll this morning. there are 15 dead in south carolina. two in north carolina. we've also seen about 175 rescues from people in the water. chris, that number is going to jump very soon. we've had 50 here in kingstr$50 alone. a relatively small town. we had one rescue this morning already. >> boris, as you well know there being on the ground, all the numbers are going to jump. the need is only going to increase. that's why we're staying on the story. thank you for doing your part there this morning. what happened to "el faro"

the most basic question still unanswered. the ntsb is beginning its first full day of investigating the sinking of the cargo ship. the owners say the captain had a sound plan for dealing with joaquin. alexandra field joins us with the latest. what happened to the plan? >> reporter: that's the question being asked of the cargo ship's owners they are being asked, why would this ship set sail with the hurricane appearing the way it was. they need hurricane joaquin was coming or at least a tropical storm. why did the ship head in that direction? the owners said they leave the trust in the captain to make these decisions. they say the captain was monitoring in realtime, the weather, as recently as last wednesday, he reported that he was aware of the worsening weather conditions ahead but he said that the ship was in a position where weather conditions remained favorable. >> given what he had in the way of information about the weather

system, his plan was a sound plan that would have enabled him to clearly pass around the storm with a margin of comfort that was adequate in his professional opinion. >> by thursday, the day that "el faro" met with hurricane joaquin, a category 4 hurricane, the ship had become disabled, lost propulsion. that's the report that came from the captain. there's no word on how the ship lost propulsion. it's a question that ntsb investigators are now out there to answer. in the meantime, we have the coast guard continuing their search. they've been out there all night. they have covered more than 172,000 square nautical miles in the hope they will find some of the 33 passengers who were on board that ship. >> all those resources are a comfort i'm sure to the family and friends of the missing crew members. we have one of them joining us now. larry lagere has known the captain of "el faro" michael

davidson, since the 1970s. first of all, thank you so much for joining us. i know it's with a heavy heart. i know you're concerned about your friend. tell us about captain mike. i understand he spend is the a lifetime on the sea, much like you. >> yes. indeed. good morning, michaela. i met mike back in the late 1970s. he came to work at a local ferry company as a deck hand when i was captain on the boats back then. he quickly worked his way up and was promoted to captain, eventually attending main maritime academy here in maine. >> help us understand, because this is the perspective you can give us. the decision, how a captain weighs the decision to ship out? what kind of things do you look at? what information do you weigh? >> well, mike was a very capable and experienced captain. he would have weighed all of the factors, the weather, the

condition of the ship. he would have thought of that very carefully and weighed the decision. my guess is that he saw that he could outrun the storm providing everything went right. >> at the time it was a tropical storm. it hadn't developed into a hurricane. interesting to hear from the company spokesman saying they believe their captain, that mike had a sound plan, and that they trust the captain's judgment in a situation like that. let's talk about some of the particulars. we know this ship was 41 years old which to me sounds like it's old and significant but you say it's not so significant as is the type of vessel and the type of cargo on board. explain that to us. >> this is true. the type of cargo they had on board were vehicles, on the main deck, a roll on/roll off type of

ship. that meant it had cargo doors on the side. once the seas got so heavy and the cargo shifted, they could have breached those cargo hatches on the side of the vessel, causing it to take on water. >> and does that also make it more top heavy than, say, a tanker? >> yes. much more top heavy than a tanker. >> we know also that -- >> center of gravity of a tank -- >> go ahead. finish. >> yes. go ahead. i'm sorry. >> we're both being so polite here. let's talk about the pressures, too. we understand in a business like this, there are time constraints, pressures, deadlines to meet. does that play into the decisions that a captain is weighing when he decides whether or not to ship out with that cargo and crew members? >> all of those things do play into the captain's decision to sail. however, i don't believe that he would have been pressured by the

company, considering the weather forecast and so forth. >> where do you think his head was during all this? you've known him a long time, since the 1970s. you know this man. you know the challenges an pressures he was facing. where do you think his head was when he saw things were going south? >> i don't believe they had much time to consider anything, based on the evidence, the lack of recovered survivors or anything. i don't believe that he really had all that much time to consider the factors. once they lost the propulsion, i believe it happened very, very quickly. >> i can imagine that you and other people that know and love the crew members and all the people aboard, are comforted by the fact that there are so many resources out there scouring the seas, trying to find evidence of these people. are you holding out hope that they might find a miracle? >> yes.

everybody in the community and it's a very vast community, the maritime community here in maine is very large. it's very close-knit. we are holding out hope. >> we'll hold out our hope with you. thank you so much, larry, for joining us, giving us insight into your friend. we appreciate your expertise as well. we appreciate it, larry. >> thank you. >> chris? new polling to talk about giving hillary clinton and donald trump a boost in three key battleground states. less than a week away from the first democratic debate, clinton now leads by double digits in florida, ohio, pennsylvania. you know how big they are. on the republican side, donald trump on top. ben carson in second in all three swing states. fortifying trump's position on top in fact. another of the other gop candidates jockeying for third. keep an eye on bush and rubio,

one of them will make it out of florida, mick. >> overnight, israeli officials say a terrorist attacked a jewish man in the old city of jerusalem. the victim shot his attacker. the woman is said to be in serious condition. the stabbing victim's injuries reportedly are not life threatening. >> enough on the heavy, a little bit on the light. life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. tell that to lauren, a university student. forrest gump himself, aka tom hanks, finds her school i.d. in a new york park. uses twitter to try to track her down. thousands of shares commence, someone who knows lauren spots it. >> get out. >> here's the rub. as of late last night, lauren's roommate told us she hadn't gotten the i.d. back yet. >> wait for it. >> tom hanks. >> i'm forgetful. i've lost my keys several times. should i expect dwayne "the rock" johnson to find my stuff.

>> where's the i.d., tom? where's the i.d.? >> he'll get it to her. >> we'll talk more politics. the republican majority leader's comments on the benghazi committee. the team that seems to keep giving for democrats. now a democratic congressman allen grayson is calling for an ethics investigation. he joins us, next.

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all right. we have political business to unwrap. house majority leader kevin mccarthy's worried about the benghazi special committee's effect on hillary clinton's campaign. that's a mouthful. those words are still coming back to haunt him. >> everybody thought hillary clinton was unbeatable, right? but we put together a benghazi special committee, a select committee, what are her numbers today? her numbers are dropping. why? because she's untrustable. but no one would have known any of that had happened had we not thought -- >> i agree. >> what do you hear in that? do you hear mccarthy saying because of what we found in the committee, in the investigation, people don't trust hillary clinton as much? that's not what the democrats hear. they hear that this is fodder for the campaign trail because it was an unfair investigation, the man making that case and saying it's an ethical violation is democratic congressman allen grayson. he's filing an ethics complaint against mccarthy as well as the chair of the benghazi panel,

trey gowdy, aka harold. why do you believe this is an ethical violation, congressman, pursuant to rule 3a? >> it's simple. you're not supposed to use taxpayer funds for political witch hunt. the rules are very clear about this. if the republicans want to hire investigat investigators, that's one thing. if they want to have the taxpayers pay for this inquisition, that's another. that's exactly what the ethics committee is going to find. >> people died. we done the know why. it seems as though we should have done much better in the situation. secretary clinton at that time was in charge. what more do you need to know as a basis for investigation? >> well, that's wrong. i'm on the foreign affairs committee. i've read every single classified document relating to this and secretary clinton did

nothing wrong. this is the scanneding thdal th was. the republicans are trying to gin up anti-clinton propaganda in the course of a presidential race and using public taxpayer funds to do it. >> how is this different than any other ethical situation they look at? by the way, i didn't say secretary clinton did something wrong. i said we don't know what went wrong when you lose four americans in a place that should have been able to defend itself. >> you're misstating the facts. the ambassador on his own volition and authority went to a place he knew would not necessarily be safe. he paid the ultimate price for that. that doesn't mean the republicans somehow can use taxpayer money here in order to do some kind of undue political examination to try to destroy someone's career. a good example of what secretary clinton's well-known husband described as a politics of personal destruction and it's being conducted at taxpayer expense. >> what do you see as the clear proof of this being political and not purposeful in terms of

finding out how this supposedly protected u.s. entity within libya got attacked? >> look, we have something here we don't often see in public light. we have a confession. a week ago, mccarthy admitted that the purpose of this committee was to destroy hillary clinton's career. that's all the evidence you would need. look at the circumstantial evidence as well. the fact that this dragged on for 17 months, longer than watergate investigation and the fact there hasn't been a single hear con ducked by this committee since january because they're, quote, saving it up in order to be able to dump all this on hillary clinton during primary season. >> is that fair or are you taking mccarthy out of context? couldn't he have just men the what he says he men the which is what we found in the investigation, the open questions, what secretary clinton has evaded, that's what led to her declining poll numbers? >> that's not what he said. what he said was what you quoted earlier, a confession, this is a politically motivated witch hunt. >> it was within the context.

you have to give him the benefit of his own context, right? >> the context was he was trying to explain why he would do a better job than boehner. the fact is he was bragging about the fact -- bragging -- about the fact this he was wasting taxpayer money, $4.5 million and counting in order to destroy a democrat's political career. that's the context. >> let's take a poll quote out of your letter here. that you're sending on to the ethics committee asking for an investigation. representative kevin mccarthy and trey gowdy have violated federal law and house rules by using funds appropriated to the select committee on benghazi to oppose the presidential candidacy of hillary clinton. this is a clear and unequivocal misuse of appropriated funds for political purposes. let's say they agree. what would happen next? >> there would be a full investigation. for instance, we would determine whether internal e-mails corroborated what mccarthy said, which is that this is a

politically motivated undertaking and there would be some degree of punishment. i'm sure for one thing, they would recommend exactly what the "new york times" is recommending, which is that this inquisition be shut down. beyond that, i though there would be punishment for the specific members. >> are you concerned at all about this investigation into the investigation of the investigation just adding more time and length to the benghazi narrative? >> no. loads go over this again. mccarthy admitted that this is a politically motivated investigation. that's an illegitimate investigation. an investigation into whether one has wasted taxpayer funds contrary to house ethic rules and statutes is not a politically motivated investigation. that's a proper use of government funds. >> i didn't say it was politically motivated. i understand the agree of exasperation. you have to make the case to do this. >> there's no moral equivalentance here.

what we're going to end that wrong is right. >> i understand your position. let's see how it plays out. when the honorable david skaggs gets this letter and decides what to do next. thank you for coming on "new day," sir. >> thank you very much. >> mick? russian planes are pounding targets in syria in a new round of air strikes. could the u.s. and russia cross paths leading to a military confrontation? we talk to a military expert about it, ahead.

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flood ravaged south carolina not out of the woods just yet. officials are monitoring the beaver creek dam in columbia. they're concerned it could fail at any moment. flash flood warnings have been issued for the area. the death toll has now reached at least 15. and is expected to rise. an alleged u.n. bribery and corruption scheme busted, six people including a former president of the u.n. general assembly now facing charges, a federal court complaint says john ash accepted more than $3 million in bribes and other payments from 2012 to 2014. why? to back construction of a u.n.-sponsored conference center in china.

the u.n. secretary general's office says ban ki-moon is shocked and deeply troubled by the accusations. attorneys for bill cosby will be in court for a hearing this morning, just days before cosby himself is deposed in a lawsuit filed by judy hooth. in the meantime, a new suit alleges cosby assaulted 25-year-old model chloe goines at the playboy mansion in 2008. in all, more than 50 women accuse cosby of some form of sexual misconduct. food for thought for you here on capitol hill this morning. a house hearing on this year's dietary guidelines is expected to ignite a debate over saturated fat and heart disease. that's after growing evidence shows decade's old advice about staying away from full-fat dairy products could incorrect. we do know the usda does not plan to talk sustainability and

will not discourage people from eating meat. >> i don't get it. do you eat it, do you not eat it? i love my full-fat dairy. russia says it is willing to cooperate with the u.s. on future air strikes in syria. for now they're not waiting, launching air strikes even overnight. is this good news? cnn general mark hurtling joins us now. good to have you with us. here's what i don't understand. it seems as though the united states is starting to bifurcate, separate assad and what should happen with him from isis and what should happen with them. in terms of working with russia. can we do that? >> i think we can, chris, but it's going to get -- let's use a doctrinal term -- sporty in the next couple of weeks and months. russia certainly has objectives in the area and we have ours. they are bifurcated as you say, two different approaches.

it's going to cause some volatile actions, i believe. >> so let's say they are trying to go at isis somewhat why? isis is a threat to assad and isis is a threat to them because of caucuses and their own concerns. what would you do? let's bomb them together. every time you bomb those rebels that we're arming to fight against assad we'll be angry at you? how would that work? >> yes, but here's the point, chris. i don't think you see russia going after isis. they have had propaganda. their intention is to secure a safe zone for mr. assad in the western part of the country with damascus, homs and idlib. they're going to secure the eastern side of isis coming in from palmyra. what they're really doing is securing that flank of mr. assad. these are things that are very different from what we're trying to do, which is to destroy this

terrorist threat that not only threatens damascus but the world and is causing consternation that we're seeing in europe right now. >> if what they're doing is what you suggest, and john mccain and many other in the intelligence communities, they're not dealing with isis yet, they're only helping their friend assad. what is the u.s. able to do to stop them? i mean, the easy answer is nothing. they're doing whatever they want, flying over turkish air space. what are the options on the table? >> not much. i think we can continue our campaign against isis and separate what we might want to happen with mr. assad, which is for him to either step down or, as secretary kerry said recently, let's form a partner government with some of the opposition. you have to remember, chris, the large persian of the population do not want mr. assad in.

do you continue to attempt to help them or go after a major enemy which is isis and see what transpires with, perhaps, this safe zone that will be created. >> you let russia do what it wants, shore up assad and you focus on isis. >> you do to a degree. i think we have to keep russia in a little bit of a box. they are threatening the rest of syria at this point. because as they continue to back up assad, it's still causing problems in the rest of syria. this is not going to stop the refugee crisis. it is not going to stop the -- in fact, i would suggest that russia doesn't really care what happens isis and the rest of syria. in fact, it could cause continued embarrassment to the other gulf cooperation council, to europe and to the united states and it also draws attention away from what they've been doing in ukraine. i think we also must look at the bigger picture. >> what box could you put russia in? what box? >> this safe zone, mr. putin has said he has limited objectives.

he is going to continue to contribute close air support along with some iranian ground troops to really secure that area. it's a relatively small area of syria. he's not going to go after the rest and try and help mr. assad gain the rest of syria. that would just be too problematic for the russian forces. i think you're going to see him focussed in that area and pretty soon he will likely turn it over to the iranian ground forces and get out. >> what's the chance that you and i are going to wind up in some capacity back in afghanistan because the taliban will take that place over again and the u.s. will have to go in with the allies in a major way in order to create another new normal? >> i think general campbell's comments yesterday were very pressing. i think most of the military leaders over the last several years have said we need more forces for continued stabilization. when you have these kinds of conflict, it doesn't go away in just a few years or ten years. you have to continue to provide

help with the security for eye government that's in its infancy. we see, i think we see afghanistan at a true inflection point. they have some capability with their security forces but not enough yet. and if we leave, what you're going to see is, they don't have the intelligence. they don't have the artillery or air to push back against some of these insurgent groups as we've seen over the last couple of weeks that are now re-emerging as the threat to the security and the stability of afghanistan. i don't think we're going to go in with a lot of forces but as general campbell said yesterday, he wants more than what the current plan says. >> are we looking at a south korea kind of situation there where there's just generations of presence? >> yes, you know, it's not out of the question, chris. i think it's going to take longer than a lot of people have said. we've all stated thiscy amultigenerational conflict between islamists and the west. and i think in order to provide a secure government for afghanistan, there's got to be more growth in the maturity of

that government and the maturity of their forces we have seen that in iraq. where it deteriorated very quickly. i think general campbell is saying to the president we don't want that the to happen in afghanistan. the other thing you have to consider, if the united states draws down quickly, then our nato partners are also going to draw down quickly in afghanistan. that's something we often don't consider, the partnership between nato and the united states in afghanistan providing the continued security help to the afghan national army and security forces. >> general, thank you for helping us understand the picture a little bit better. >> thank you, chris. all right, chris, a new kind of joe-mentum is growing. as joe biden makes his final decision on a 2016 presidential run. when will we know one way or the other? we'll take a look at that, ahead. you totalled your brand new car.

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vice president joe biden is reportedly going to have a family conversation this weekend to discuss his possible presidential run. this as a brand new ad released

just this morning, in fact, a few moments ago by the draft biden movement is joe-mentum on the rise? is it, is it? let's bring in michelle kosinski, live in studio. and jeff zeleny on the road in iowa. jeff, why don't we start with the ad right off the bat. let's take a look at a chunk of it. >> things can change in a heartbeat. i know. six weeks after my election, my whole world was altered, forever. i got a phone call. my wife and three children were christmas shopping, tractor-trailer broadsided and killed my wife and killed my daughter. >> jeff, the timing of this ad being released by the draft biden movement is significant. a few days before the big debate in las vegas. using his own words, what else

is significant to you this ad? >> michaela, this is a powerful ad. the words we're hearing from vice president biden come from a commencement speech he gave at yale in may, just a couple weeks before beau biden died. it was one of the most powerful speeches he's given, at least recently about his life, his life story. this draft biden movement which is an outside organization, but it is run by some people who are close to the biden family, are airing this. it's going to run next week in the hours leading up to the debate. it's a 90-second ad, which is unusual for a campaign ad. it's designed to tell his story, give his record and his biography here, all setting up this sort of aura around is he going to run or not. so interesting how they put it together. it's design by one of president obama's former campaign advisers who did some of his advertisements in his campaign. a slick movie style like ad that

certainly increases speculation about what the vice president is going to do. >> look, the point of the speculation, michelle, right now is, is this about joe biden wanting to run but not being sure that he can win and get the organization that's necessary or, is he still at the gumption emotional motivation stage? you know, what do you hear from people about what this calculus is? >> definitely it's some of both. the people closest to him focus on being a personal choice. it's the politicos looking from the outside more saying he needs to strategize behind the scenes. he's focused on his family and healing. he's still grieving. but his people and his operation and the draft biden movement, which is separate from him, but really working on his side, they're the ones who are looking at the real numbers. so you know he's thinking about it to some extent. but it is very much a personal issue right now for him. just making that decision. and the emwho are closest to

him, they always go back to that. >> would you let me do an ad like that about you? if you were thinking you didn't want to run? these are his friends, the draft biden movement. >> that's a good point. >> it is a beautiful ad. it's focusing not on his decades in the senate and his record and the issues, it's focusing on him as a person. >> yes. >> and the things that he's been through. and really who he is. and it even has an air of mystery, he's not a candidate yet but he's out there. >> right, right, right. >> that's really contributed to the kind of polling that he's been doing. >> it's interesting, i was thinking, jeff, it's a really interesting thing this buzz and this joe-mentum we're talking about, is he in, is he not in? it keeps him in the conversation. >> and in the polls. >> and in the polls, even though he's not running. tell us more about the reporting you have on this family conversation that is said to be taking place this weekend.

>> right. he's going to have another meeting with all of his family in delaware. it's certainly not the first family conversation. they've had many over these months, over the summer, but it may be the last family conversation they have before he makes a final decision. we are told that, you know, the friends -- several friends we've talked to in recent days who have talked with the vice president are left with the impression that he's leaning toward a run. michelle is right. this say personal decision, a family decision. essentially people will sign off on it in this family conversation or not. but, again, it's important to remember, this is obviously not the first time they're discussing it. and chris is right. the idea that some of his friends, allies and supporters would be putting together this ad is not to nudge him into the race. they believe he's running. they don't know for sure but they believe he's running. this family conversation over the weekend in delaware is probably the final pat of his decisionmaking process. if he decides to go forward, at that point he will start reaching out to other contributors, friends and donors

and this democratic presidential campaign will change considerably. it should be noted he could also decide to not run. you know this must be frustrating to democrats out there who want to know. i talked to so many of them yesterday here in iowa. i think we'll know the answer in a couple days. >> all of this speaks to the perspective of the biden team versus the hillary team. they wouldn't be doing this this way if they didn't think there was a challenge. >> it's hard to believe at this point that he's not going to run. >> right. it has lingered out there. yet when you know joe biden, you can understand how he'd vacillate. i've been in one of these family conversations, actually two of them. >> that's right. >> that were like this. they are not a conversation the way that wores suggest. this is about him. and whether or not he wants to take this on. yes, he needs to know his family is with him but we're always with him. the family is always going to be with him. this is about what he wants and how much he wants it. this is a hell of a fight on his

hands if he gets it into it. his numbers will never be as high as the day owe enters the race. >> or just before. >> jack, michelle, thank you both so much. we're six days away from the first democratic debate, hosted by cnn and facebook. you can tune in october 13th, 8:30 eastern, right here on cnn. and if you actually are stewing and have a question that you are hoping to will get asked during the democratic debate, head to our facebook page for cnn. you can comment there or you can record a short video for instagram, use #demdebate. >> would you make a video with me? >> no. >> major publication, taking a huge step. they want to stop gun violence in the wake of the oregon massacre. now, we're going to show you this and you tell us, do you think this would make you -- will it make lawmakers -- take action? wait until you see it. toid arth. and you're talking to a rheumatologist about a biologic, this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my

pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me reach for more. doctors have been prescribing humira for more than 10 years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contrubutes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work. when broker chris hill stays at laquinta he fires up the free wifi, with a network that's now up to 5 times faster than before! so he can rapidly prepare his presentation. and when he perfects his pitch, do you know what chris can do?

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all right. this is a big one and a surprise. an unprecedented move by "people" magazine. they are taking a stand, calling on readers to act on its website

and the new issue. the magazine is publishing the names and phone numbers of all 535 lawmakers in the house and senate. it is titled not again. and the they explain why they are doing this. saying he thinks about mass shootings when he's on a train, in a movie theater in a classroom, like so many of us do now. if for no other reason than media. he says our voices need to be heard. the news article gives snapshot of those who lost their lives in the violence this year. >> not necessarily the publication you might anticipate something like this from but it is really interesting to see, are we at a tipping point in the nation when so many of us are saying not again? not again? >> are you going to call your lawmakers? is that something you have done before, is this a time you would think of doing this? >> my concern is you want to act. what do you want to do?

>> i want you to hear my voice. >> what law would make a difference? what law would have stopped this? it gets complicated very quickly. but nothing happens if nothing happens. >> sitting oun your hands isn't going to help. >> let us know on the twitter. >> yeah please do. hit us both. now to the presidential candidates dominating "late night" shows on tuesday there are a few special guests to watch. >> did you call donald trump and ask him to run for president of the united states? >> no. no. >> no? because that would be pretty smart, man. >> yeah. yeah i get credit for doing a lot of things i didn't do like that. >> credit. credit. >> the economy is so bad, hillary clinton wants people to look through her deleted e-mails to see if there is any from that nigerian prince. that's how bad. >> carson hosted a facebook q&a last night and said the loss of

gun rights is more devastating than seeing people die from gun violence. so if ben carson is your doctor, definitely get a second opinion. >> better than the headline. you see leno on fallon's show? >> that was huge. >> he's not a politician is he? what do you make of the russian situation. they are increasing the number of attacks on targets inside syria. but are they going after isis or are they going after america's allies the rebel groups there? that is the big question. and then the next question is what will the u.s. do about it? actions. they speak louder. we like that. not just because we're doers. because we're changing. big things. small things. spur of the moment things.

changes you'll notice. wherever you are in the world. sheraton.

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and we're making the most of each one. vo: ask your doctor if new namzaric is right for your loved one. overnight russian war planes laumpbling a new round of strikes. >> the white house is left with few options. >> isis doesn't seem to be the main target. >> russia should not be interfering. >> russia now firmly owns the actions of the assad regime. >> you can see why the water is covering over that road right there. >> record volume of flood water making its way downstreams. >> now it is time to assess the damages. clinton coming out strong. >> some of this i think reflects

her just being a known quantity. >> democrats want to know if joe biden is going to get into this race. >> he needs whatever time and space he wants. >> this is "new day" with chris cuomo, allsyn cammaraerota and michaela pereira. >> morning. wednesday october 7th, 8:00 in the east. russia launching new air strikes overnight targeting several towns in western syria. moscow says they are willing to cooperate with the the united states in carrying out future attacks. the question is are they going after our allies? >> u.s. concerned about i russia's actions. cla and nato calling their violation of turkish air space reckless. strong words. >> indeed. update the action in syria, are

russian military action has changed significantly overnight. a short time ago the russian defense ministry said it began naval attacks into the syria. u.s. officials are able to tell us that indeed a few days ago in the kas pan sea. the russians moved several surface warships into the caspian and have ever reason to believe those ships are there indeed to begin naval attacks with their missiles into the syria. the russians say the attacks have begun. the u.s. knows the ships are there. it is trying to get the radar data to show those attacks have indeed begun. but that is just one change overnight. u.s. officials are also telling us they are able to confirm at this hour that russian ground forces are now in action in western syria. that the russian artillery and rocket launchers we've talked about for the last 24 hours that are on the ground in western syria have begun their attacks

in that area which is an area where antiregime forces and civilians, of course, are located. those russian weapons, those russian ground attacks are there the u.s. says to back up syrian war planes in the sky. all of this as the russians say they want to work with the u.s. on that deconfliction of the air space extending their version perhaps of an olive branch. that remains to be seen. another round of talks could happen at any point. but with this latest action, the u.s. perhaps increasingly skeptical of russian intentions. >> especially as your reporting has suggested that olive branch comes after they have done all they can to shore up the assad regi regime. thank you very much. on another front the head of forces in afghanistan says isis and al qaeda are getting stronger there so he's adjusting his recommendation for the

number of american troops needed on the ground. joined live this morning from kabul. frightening thoughts to americans the idea of another iraq. where the u.s. has to stay a long time and then seems to get worse when it withdraws. what is it like there. >> sure. the analogy still growing as well. billions of dollars spent. many hundreds of thousands of u.s. military man hours trying to train a afghan national army here. the taliban threat has been growing since the u.s. draw down began a few years back. the taliban now so significant in tens of thousands able to take control of a major city. you now have isis thrown into that mix. thousands here operating in afghanistan. al qaeda rising up against inside afghanistan. we're told thousands of them. the picture that was presented

and everyone could see perhaps a year or so ago that u.s. troops could draw down. now the u.s. general in charge is saying maybe not so fast. this is what he said. >> based on conditions on the ground, based on the transitions i've talked about, i do believe that we have to provide our senior leadership options different than the current plan that we're going with. >> so i was talking to some afghans forced out of the town of kunduz. the taliban just took control of it recently. townspeople told me yes we do need u.s. forces. why? they told me they saw their own army running away. they don't think afghan forces are up to the job yet. general campbell has said himself their abilities to be to the best patchy at times. we want u.s. support to continue

he said. don't hit civilian, don't hit hospitals but now as u.s. secretary of defense ash carter has said it is never the u.s. intention to hit those facilities. the u.s. takes the greatest care. when we make mistakes we own up to them. this of course the investigation into the doctors without borders hospital hit over the weekend in kunduz. michae michaela. >> thanks for all that complicated situation there. back here, water-logged south carolina is not out of the woods. in fact there is serious threat of flooding. officials are comfortably watching and monitoring the beaver creek dam in columbia. live with the latest there are concern that dam actually could imminently fail. >> reporter: that is correct. within the past hour we got word that it is not a question of if but rather a question of when that dam is going to breech and

that has huge implications for towns all along the east side of south carolina. because it is lower elevation. we are at the home of bobby dukes. he's lived here about 50 years and told me he dodged a bullet. the water literally at his doorstep, just a few inches away from his home. his front yard has basically become part of the black river swamp. you can't see his mailbox. it is submerged in water next to that bush. across the street there is a home completely submerged in water. there are about five homes in this neighborhood alone that are covered in water, flooded out. there is also a bus right there you can see. that bus services an adult day care center that we saw was closed yesterday. and this street continues down and it is completely submerged. this is an area called fool's hill and it is at a lower elevation than the rest of town. and this water is moving east as the river overflows, the swamp overflows into this

neighborhood. it is hitting highway 52, which is a busy highway here in kings tree. and there is a bridge there that is always submerged. it will be a long time before the water recedes and before inspectors can get to the bridge and see whether or not it is safe to travel highway 52 again. >> and everybody has to remember boris that what you are showing us right now, everything will change because of that water. the houses have to be rebuilt. the vehicles are almost all lost. the infrastructure the bridges and roads will almost certainly crack and need replacement. that is time, that is money. here is senator from south carolina lindsey graham. senator, sorry to have you on this occasion but what can you tell us about the need, the scale and scope of devastation that your state faces. >> well i don't think we can give you good assessment yet because a lot of the damage is yet to come. because the water from the upstate has got to flow to columbia and eventually the coast. and if the dams break it will be

a lot different than if they o don't. i'm going to meet with the governor and her team at 10:00 and get a better assessment. >> how fright seasoning the prospect in terms of what you know of the state's history? >> this is -- well there is nothing to compare this too. we've had hurricane hugo that was devastating. but this is more inland. it's touched more places in ask. almost every county was affected in some fashion. the amount of damage to be done, i'd just be making something up. it is going to be a large amount of damage. a lot of homes lost. the most consequential thing is the loss of life. we're in the teens now and i just hope people stay off the roads until we get a better handle. >> we'll stay on the story and report the need and different way torus people to help. >> thank you. >> absolutely. let's deal with one other big topic in the news overseas and then the political implications of everything going on in your life right now as the presidential candidate. syria, it seems to the untrained eye at least that russia is

doing exactly what it wants to shore up the assad regime. it is not fighting isis and it is doing it all right under the united states' nose. is that a fair assessment? and if so what are the options for the u.s.? >> that is a very fair assessment. >> so what can the united states do about it under the leadership of you and others? >> okay. well number one, i think that is a fair assessment. that the russian president is all in for assad. what i would do is form a regional force to go in and destroy isil. you never destroy isil, chris, without a ground component. there is nobody left i believe to train in syria. if you can find some people to train, count me in. but the problem is we insist they fight isil alone. they want to go after assad who's murdered their families. so the first thing i would do is try to get the region together, the sunni arabs working with the americans to counter the russians and iranians and assad. >> so if you are fighting isil

with a coalition, let's say it comes together. at the same time russia and iran are killing off people who are aanymore cal to assad. so yes you are making progress on isis. but iran and russia are doing a power play on you at the same time. >> what they are doing is our goal is to replace assad and degrade and destroy isil. i share both of president obama's goals. but his policies are failing miserably. he has not been all in when it comes to getting rid of assad. the people we train have limitations on whether they can do. so you ask a really good question. is it right for america to train people? knowing that the russians and iranians and assad's forces will kill them without providing them help. here is what i would tell russia. i intend for assad to go because the war never ends with his presence. he's a magnet for isil in terms of recruitment. people in syria are not going to

accept him as their leader. so to the russian president, he is going to go. we are going to go in and destroy isil. you are welcome to help. but if you want to fight for assad that will be your choice. but if i'm president of the united states he is going to leave syria because i want this war to end. the refugees never stop flowing. lebanon and jordan are very much affected if this war continues to go forth. >> question is how do you duet russia out. let's move on to political implications in your life. the first is the polls. they are out now and show a couple of things clearly in the key states and the likely battle ground states of iowa and new hampshire. donald trump is the man. he's at the top. the prohibitive leader now for several weeks on end. he says look at the rest of the field. you got me, carson, rubio. you know what he says about them. bush, you know what he says. fiorina. you know what he said. the rest of you he says should drop out. you are at a hash mark in these

polls. you need the get out and help your party by narrowing the field. what do you say? >> well i say that i think i've got a message unique to the field that i've been to iraq and afghanistan 35 times. i have a coherent vision of syria. mr. trump's foreign policy to me is pretty much gibberish. and at the end of the day this is a process. this time in 2008 and 2012 the people leading, none of them won. i was with with john mccain who was fifth in a four person race. i'm going to be in new hampshire this weekend with john. i'm going to spend a lot of time on the ground in new hampshire, some in iowa. i'm convinced the more people i meet in new hampshire, the more they understand who i am and what i want to do for the country. i do want to work across party lines to fix immigration and get us out of debt. and i want or the commander and chief and thank god for our new hampshire because its gives a person like me a chance. >> and you tell me when you look at these polls it hasn't really

started yet. it was like this in the last cycle. i still got a shot. >> yeah i was with john mccain when he was fifth in a four person race. he did a hundred new town hall meetings in new hampshire. i'm going to try to duplicate. i've got a good story. lost my parents young. government was there to help us. i owe a lot to a lot of people. 35 trips to iraq and afghanistan. 33 years in the air force. i understand the war. have a a plan to win it and we're never getting out of debt if we can't get republicans and democrats to work together. i'm tired of fighting. i'm the republican in the primary openly talking about democrats to get this country back on track. >> and a big amen within the american people. but within your own party that is seen as dissent. >> all i need is amen from about 15 percent. >> right. ben carson is getting a lot of slack about the shooting in

oregon. let me play it. >> not only would i probably not cooperate with him. i would not -- i would not just stand there and let me shoot him. i would say hey guys everybody attack him. he may shoot me approximate but he can't get us all. >> the students didn't do enough to save themselves. >> i did nothing about them. i said what i would do. >> and can you say what you would do? >> i would ask everybody to attack the gunman because he can only shoot one at a time. that way we don't all end up dead. >> he's talking about what too do in general. he's not criticizing the victims in or. this is not fair criticism. what do you say? >> i think mr. carson has no idea what he would do. you know i've been in the military for a very long time. i've never been a front line soldier by any means. but i can tell you this. you don't know what's -- like during the holocaust. you are overwhelmed. all i can say is that's not what we need to be saying as leaders

of the country. i'm glad president obama went to see these people. i just don't think that is the road to go down in terms of questioning people who have lost their lives. because you have no idea what you would do. >> so it is not about what you would do in that moment anyway. it is about how you stop that moment from happening. do you have plans? >> exactly. well i think the mental health area is right for bipartisan ship. 80,000 people fell to background check in the last couple of years and less than a hundred presidented. about a million people who have been adjudicated a danger to themselves in the federal and state level who are not in the background check system. that as good place to start. give the state money to enroll people who have been adjudicated a danger to themselves and others. >> good luck to you. >> thank you. investigators looking into the online postings written by the mother of the oregon

shooter. in them she talks about her son, and the fact that he's well versed on arms. >> reporter: well, you will remember that the father of the gunman said he didn't know that his son had any guns. well the mother she knew about them and she is a gun news yast herself. and in these theonline posts sh says he has an developmental disorder on the autism syndrome, specifically aspergers. there is no link between violent behavior and aspergers but it raises questions about what she knew about the full mental profile of her son. and i ra want to read an example of what she said about guns. almost in a boastful fashion. she writes i keep all my mags full. two full mags in my glock case and ars and aks all have loaded

mags. nobody no one will be dropping by my house without unacknowledgment. and my son hiss a pers gers. he's very intelligent. and my knowledge is paying offem i'm a nurse. and we have confirmed she is a nurse. and she also says that she has aspergers herself. everyone has been noting there's a whole lot of similarities between this case and what happened at sandy hook. the shooter at that case also had aspergers, lived in a home with all kinds of guns. his mother took him to a shooting range. so people looking at that case and this case in the same context. >> and of course the concern is aspergers can become different things. it can be in addition to other things that were neglected and untreated. that seems to be a similarity as well. and gun storage is always an issue. in other news this morning, isis militants have been seen driving in toyota trucks.

u.s. officials want to know how did they get them? the terrorists are often spotted in the vehicles and toyota says as the part of a u.s. treasury inquiry to look more closely how to u.s. supply chains and capital flow into the mideast may be a function of this. >> we are learning more about the mother of oregon college killer and what she said in online posts. were warning signs ignored in we're going to speak to a woman who knew her and worked with her to get insight ahead. try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. could protect you from diabetes? what if one sit-up could prevent heart disease? one. wishful thinking, right? but there is one step you can take to help prevent another serious disease. pneumococcal pneumonia. if you are 50 or older,

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newly discovered online posts linked to the mother of the 26-year-old oregon shooter reveal a troubled son who had a passion for guns and that she had them as well. but what about the people who knew the shooter and his mother personally. joining us is alexis jefferson, friend of the mother. she joins us from california this morning. so glad you could join us to help us understand a little more about the woman you know. tell us a little about this woman. you knew her as ms. harper. >> yes. she's my coworker and everybody calls her miss harper. we never call her on her name. >> you work together in torrence at a center as nurses. was she outgoing? was she friendly with the other nurses? did you all share stories about your own personal lives?

>> she is really a very -- very quiet person. and she mind her own business most of the time. and she doesn't really share anything about her family and stuff like that. and a few times they just say oh my son is in the hospital. that's it. and she tells me one day that they argue. i mean that's it. she doesn't really do -- talk about it at work. >> se had mentioned to you that her son had been in a psychiatric unit. i understand you are a psychiatric nurse yourself. did she share anymore about that? >> no. because during the time that we talk about it we were working in the sub acute. so i -- during that time i don't know anything about psychiatric patients. so i just let it be, you know. when she tells me that her son is in the hospital i just say okay, well i hope he feel better. that's it but i never asking anything about what's going on

and stuff like that. >> did you have any sense she was having trouble with her son? is that there were problems at home? >> umm, actually she doesn't say anything about trouble. sometimes she say they argue. that's it. >> what family doesn't. >> sometimes -- and -- and sometimes they don't argue and sometimes they are doing good. i know that she's -- she loves her son. i know that. and she worries a lot about her son. during that time. and but she doesn't mention anything more than what she had told me that he goes into the hospital and out again and in again. but never mention -- >> -- she has said about her son and her own interests by some of the postings she's put on social media sites and on blogs. she talks about her love of guns. she was a gun enthusiast and a gun collector and talking about

keeping guns in the house with loaded magazines. does any of that line up with the woman that you knew? >> nope. i don't see that on her at all. i was so shocked when new york news had call me about it and told me. i said she's not the kind of person they knew that will have guns at home. i mean the way she looks. because shoo she's just a quiet lady. quiet very nice lady. most of our patients likes her. i just don't see it. >> and you were surprised to learn that her son was the one that shot and killed all these people in oregon. you didn't know until someone reached out to you. >> yes. i was really surprised. i was really, really surprised. i did not -- i didn't know that this can happen to her son. >> is it true that you reached out to her, you tried to reach out to her via facebook after?

>> yeah, i did. i actually did. and she hasn't said anything. she told me just delete my name. and i said why? and she said just listen to the news. that is all she told me. >> since then her facebook page has since been taken down. if she was listening right now what would you want to say to her? what would you want your friend to hear from you? >> i -- i feel sorry for what happened. i feel sad for her. and i also feel sad for the people that lost their loved ones. i just did not -- i don't know how she's going to cope with it. and i'm sorry that this thing happened to her and to the people that lost their loved ones. >> well it shows you how wide a reach this kind of horrific event can have, the lives that it touch, the lives inextricably changed forever. but also the people that are touched just by reference of

knowing someone in the family. i want to say thank you to alexis for joining us. i know this is an odd conversation and tough conversation to have. thanks for joining us on "new day." >> thank you too. >> chris. >> all right mick, let's change topics and get back to the presidential politics. we have new polls. and here is the good news. the front runners are looking good. but here is the bad news. the front runners have the highest unfavorability ratings of anyone in the field. so is this good news or bad for donald trump and hillary clinton? they are on top but will they be able to stay there? that's ahead. ♪ or, as we say at unitedhealthcare insurance company, go long. consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company... go long. when laquinta.com sends craig wilson a ready for you alert the second his room is ready,

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what do you want fist? the good or the bad news? >> good. >> always. that's why we work together i'm always the bad news. here is the good news. the 2016 front runners are looking fuerte in a new poll. clinton and trump maintaining

solid leads. trump rivaling hillary in duration of dominance. however they both have the worst overall favorability ratings of any leading candidate. que paso? >> he went all spanish on you. >> why? because joining us is anna navarro. and cdonna brazil also joins us. >> he knows better. donna is on the set. so be nice to her. >> i'm nice to whoever's close to me. >> oh baby i'm coming. i'm going to be the sugar in your coffee tomorrow. >> that's how -- that's -- >> and -- i'll be. [ inaudible ] >> let's look at the numbers before we derail the program entirely in this half hour and inflate his head.

>> must be my new cologne. >> florida. trump at 28%. 16% for carson. rubio and bush trailing in their own state. what say you anna navarro. >> are you sure you don't want to continue talking about coffee? >> the insinuation is your boy needs a fresh cup, jeb bush. got to wake him up. >> what i see in these swing state polls when it comes to the republicans what we're seeing nationally which is that the outsider are rising. that there is incredible dissatisfaction with anybody seen as politics as usual. with anybody seen as the washington or government insider. and you see a rise in numbers by fiorina, by carson and trump holding the lead and even rising in some of these. >> why aren't you doing popular to counteract it then. >> well i think they are. and i think you are going to -- i think that -- i think that trump's numbers are going start to fall. because he's now diluting himself. you know, in the sense that at the beginning he was straight

focused on jeb bush for about three months now he's fighting with rubio, fiorina, carson. >> chris cuomo. >> i haven't even declared yet. >> fighting with chris cuomo. >> so don that you are saying no no no. you don't think trump is going anywhere. neither does he or his supporters. his numbers in fact up in recent polls. what do you see? >> she lights her candles with trump every night. >> no. just on tuesdays. i think donald trump is here to stay. for obvious reasons. it is not just his outsider status. i think he's speaking to some of the things that republicans have been saying for the last coupling of years. he's coming across as somebody who's decisive, who is going to make some bold decisions and what is that the republican primary base voters want to see in their next leader. that said, i do believe that the people are still shopping. look, this is still early. we don't know exactly what -- where they may end up but we do

know they love what they are hearing from donald trump and of course ben cassius rson. >> i do love both of you are reasonable on the fact this is a long game. we have a long way to go in this triathlon. but the fact is look at the unfavorability numbers. i think it is interesting and indicative for clinton and for trump. they have very very high unfavorable numbers yet they both lead the polls. this one over here mr. cafe mocha will give his yo i his dissertation on that. but what does that mean and say to you. >> i was really surprised by the clinton's unfavorable numbers in the swing states, where she has spent some time. they are higher than donald trump's. she's in the 60s on some. the margin of error in some of the polls is about 5% that. said it is still very high up. despite you will of her singing and her dancing and authenticity, it seems to me people still don't like hillary

clinton. she's got the same problem she did in 2008. and it is a very serious problem for her. >> big news flash here. >> uh-oh. what is it? >> most americans dislike the politics. they dislike politicians. they dislike most of the institutions in society. i'm not surprised at the two front runners both mr. trump as well as mrs. clinton that they are under water in terms of favorability. people just -- they are sick of politics. >> they have high negatives for different reasons. i think donald trump has a high negative because he makes people not like him. but what else makes him effective with his baisz base. and with hillary i think that may go to what you're saying that she has the tried and true. and how much of it is just baked in her for individually. >> just a few months ago gallup poll had mrs. clinton as one of the most popular woman in america. just goes to show you once you get into the political stream, hello mr. biden, guess what?

your numbers change. people begin to form opinions and you have to respect that. she has to go out there and earn every vote and earn the trust of the people. i believe she can do it. >> she just mentioned joe biden and if i'm looking at these numbers and unfavorabilities for hillary clinton it makes a stronger case for joe biden. >> let's go quickly to some comments ben carson made a moment ago. i need to get this in because it is important to talk about it. he was responding to questions about his controversial kmebts he made on the oregon shooting, that he made yesterday. he just made these comments. let's listen. >> i want to plant in people's mind what is to do in a situation like this. from the indications that i got, they did not rush the shooter. the shooter can only shoot one person at a time. he cannot shoot a whole group of people. and so the ideal is overwhelm him so that not everybody gets

killed. >> highly intelligent man making a reasonable point of what to do in that kind of scenario? or insensitive criticism of victims. >> i think definitely not incensensitive criticism of victims. i don't think he's trying to undermine or criticize the victims in anyway. that said i'm not sure it makes any sense for any of us to second guess what to do in an instance like that unless we are in an instance like that. we have no idea how we would react in a time of crisis like that. >> i believe it is unpresidential. inartful and let me just say this. we have nine grieving families, and victims still in the hospital. and i just want to say to them. i'm college professor. so i take heart in the fact these are students who were there to learn, to study. and they are not there to figure out what to do if that scenario course.

so course. i want to say to the families and loved ones that we're there for them and praying for them and ignore the politicians and what they are saying right now. >> it happened in the blik of an eye too. thanks for joining us. >> see you tomorrow, chris. >> you know it. >> oh baby i'm coming. >> look out. >> it's gonna be a good a day. now we're just six days away from the first democratic debate. >> if you make it. >> oh i'm going to make it. hosted by cnn of course and facebook. when? october 13th. time? 8:30 p.m. eastern right here on cnn. it will be a big moment for that democratic side. >> just how much will house majority leader kevin mccarthy's comment on benghazi help clinton in the long run? you totalled your brand new car.

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in syria. the top u.s. commander in afghanistan says the u.s. needs a new troop plan there. isis and al qaeda are building strength in afghanistan and the u.s. needs to rethink a scheduled true production. a new poll showing clinton and trump leading in three key battle ground states, florida, ohio and pennsylvania. it is the ntsb's first full day investigating exactly what happened to el faro. key to the investigator, finding the car go ship's voyage data recorder. flood ravaged south carolina not out of the woods yet. officials are closely watching dams including beaver creek which is imminently close to failing. for more on the five things to know visit "new day" cnn dotcom. in much of india, water, scarcity is a way of life.

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hillary clinton's political fate made simple. ready? the more weight of benghazi, the more the unfavorability goes up. that is why her campaign is elated about what kevin mccarthy said that makes benghazi look like a big political gambit. are they right? perspective please.

carl bernstein, also the author of "a woman in charge: the life of hillary rodham clintonen." a must read. the convection between the two is obvious. even i know that. how does mccarthy play into this and how does it move forward. >> he's given her campaign the biggest gift they have had in six months. he's made obvious what's been the case all along. the benghazi investigation is a political witch hunt. it should have been shut down before and at the same time it does not obviate the fact that hillary clinton has a huge problem because she does not tell the truth very very often. >> let's unpack these two. >> well they are very related. >> i understand that. but the elements of it. as the investigative journalist of a generation you say benghazi political, there is nothing there. leave it alone. you can say that with complete assuredness there is nothing worth investigating there. >> we've had many investigations and i think we know what happened at benghazi and people

can make up their own minds and did hillary clinton try try to make political points and her and the state department's answer to what happened? yes. hillary clinton this is not watergate. she's not a criminal president of the united states. she has a 60% unfavorability and disk trustfulness rating in the new polls for reasons. it has do with the fact she trims the truth and of fus indicates and democrats are concerned about it and one of the reasons joe biden is in good position if he enters the race. >> does she trim the truth more than others are used to. >> more than whom? >> -- >> really good question and we don't know except in terms of judging individual candidates. politicians lie. hillary clinton has been around public life for almost 40 years now. and what we see is whenever she is in any kind of trouble, she is unwilling to open up and be

transparent. it has dogged her for years and years. and right now it's the biggest problem with her campaign. >> but it preceded -- >> the server is what -- the server question is what has solidified this impression. because she's been less than truthful. she's been less than open. she has looked for all kinds of excuses, much like she did when she was in the white house as first lady and the travel office debate came up. something that should not have been a huge problem for her. the same as the server question. had she at the beginning when the "new york times" revealed the existence of the server said if what seems to be the case, look, my enemies are out to get me. the vast right wing conspiracy as i've called it? well it exists and they are going to go after every e-mail i have so i did not want them to be subjected to that kind of

scrutiny. had she said something along those lines, as difficult as i might be she wouldn't be in the mess she's in now. it solidified the impression of her as someone who can't tell the truth. >> you know politicians and their movement e well for many years. there is a big meeting of the biden family this weekend we're told at cnn. what do you see the rhythm of that or the dynamic of that meeting being? do you think it is those around joe biden coaxing him to run? or do you think it is joe biden coaxing those around him to run with him. >> people i've talked to close to joe biden say he wants to run. at the same time he's looking at everything around him including his emotional temperature, what his family thinks. he's leaning towards running. he hasn't made a final decision yet. and also he's going to wait to see this debate we have here on cnn on the 13th of october. see how hillary does. he's going to wait to see how

some things play out. but these new polls with the distrust factor of hillary running at 60 percent in key states is a huge, huge factor in the election and perhaps in joe biden's decision. >> so you think there is timing involved that he wants to see what happens. >> he also wanted to see her testimony on the 23rd of the month before the benghazi committee. this has all along been a great opportunity for hillary clinton to get up before the cameras in front of her enemies and say what is wrong with you people? don't you believe in democratic process. and she can make monkeys out of them and probably will. >> what an interesting moment carl bernstein has framed. that when hillary clinton stands up in front of this committee t committee designed some say to take her down, she may do her best work yet in terms of helping her unfavorability and also may do the best thing yet for joe biden and whether or not he gets in the race. >> she is the ultimate cultural warrior.

and he exist right now in a time of terrible cultural political warfare. and when she stands up to her enemies and goes to the facts and gos to her own record of accomplishment and the issues she does very well. >> thank you for being on "new day." newsroom is going to begin for you right after this short break. see you. ♪ [engine revving] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ while you're watching this,

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good morning and thanks for joining me. great to have you with us and the count down is on this morning. days away from the first democratic presidential debate. and this morning new poll numbers from quinnipiac university show hillary clinton with a double digit lead in three key swing states. clinton now ahead of rival bernie sanders in florida, ohio and pennsylvania. now when it comes to a republican challengers, donald trump still on top gaining traction in florida and ohio. and florida of course is home tur for rubiond